Time to mix things up a bit after the Senior Bowl.
A lot of you will linger on the fact I have Seattle picking at #31 and Denver at #32.
Don’t.
I’ve done it this way for so many weeks now, I’m not going to change. This isn’t a Super Bowl prediction. Don’t see it that way.
Call it superstition or whatever. The two picks would be the same if I flipped the teams anyway.
Let’s get straight into it.
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#1 Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina) They have to make the most of this pick. And that means taking Clowney, and not reaching for a QB. |
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#2 Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson) Jeff Fisher traditionally hasn’t drafted offensive linemen early. If they believe in Sam Bradford, give him Sammy Watkins. |
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#3 Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M) He could be the sparky competitor Gus Bradley needs at QB to continue the rebuilding job in Jacksonville. |
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#4 Blake Bortles (QB, UCF) I’m becoming less and less convinced by all the ‘Cleveland loves Johnny’ talk. It could be a smokescreen. |
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#5 Greg Robinson (T, Auburn) Just a fantastic talent who they can build around going forward. A genuine building block for the Raiders. |
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#6 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) The Falcons could consider moving up for Clowney, but tackle is their next biggest need. |
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#7 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) Some teams will rate Lewan much higher than others. He could still land in the top ten. |
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#8 Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville) He’s not a prototype passer for Norv Turner’s offense, but they need a quarterback badly. |
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#9 Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) The more I watch Evans, the more convinced I am he’s a top ten pick and a true #1 receiver. |
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#10 Marqise Lee (WR, USC) Just a really good, competitive football player. Would look great alongside Megatron. |
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#11 Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA) I’m still not overly convinced by Barr. Ray Horton’s arrival as defensive coordinator means they need a 3-4 OLB. |
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#12 Khalil Mack (DE, Buffalo) Might be set for a Bruce Irvin-style switch to linebacker. Make the defense this teams identity. |
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#13 Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama) The Rams might wait on a tackle at #2 because of the depth at the position. I like Kouandjio more than most. |
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#14 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama) Every team in the league is looking for a rangy safety. The Bears need one badly. |
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#15 Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina) Terrific athlete with the potential to be the next big time tight end. |
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#16 Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame) Terrific football player, totally underrated. Could play guard or tackle. The Ravens know what they’re doing. |
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#17 Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh) I’m now a believer. Donald’s worthy of a grade in this range for me, despite a lack of size. |
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#18 Allen Robinson (WR, Penn State) Intelligent, grounded receiver with YAC value. Surprisingly not an elite speed guy though, so won’t WOW at the combine. |
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#19 Antonio Richardson (T, Tennessee) Massive tackle prospect who could easily go higher than this. Miami desperately needs a left tackle. |
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#20 Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State) With 10-wins and an elite defense, they might feel comfortable investing in the future. Carson Palmer in 2015 will be due $12m aged 36. |
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#21 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama) Green Bay needs to keep adding toughness to that defense. It’s way too soft at the moment and holding them back. |
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#22 Brent Urban (DE, Virginia) Chip Kelly likes defenders with length and speed. Underrated prospect who will look good at the combine. |
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#23 Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech) Big, third down converting tight end. Would have an instant impact in this offense. |
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#24 Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan State) It’s not a great class for cornerbacks, but Dennard looks like the best available. |
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#25 Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State) Had a productive season and turned a few heads in 2013. |
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| #26 Odell Beckham Jr (WR, LSU) Could provide a dynamic double threat with Josh Gordon. Definite first round talent for me. Playmaker and a safety net. |
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#27 Dee Ford (DE, Auburn) The Saints could use an edge rusher. To go this high, Ford needs to prove he has 4.4 speed. |
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#28 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Insane potential. Give him a year and he could be another Josh Gordon. Seriously. |
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#29 Xavier Su’a-Filo (G, UCLA) Major upside interior lineman. Big-time athlete whose best football lies ahead. |
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#30 Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame) Don’t be too surprised if he suffers a fall. 2013 was a big let down for Nix. |
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#31 Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State) Benjamin frustrates the hell out of me, but his upside potential is phenomenal. Seattle needs a receiver with his size. |
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#32 Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville) They’ve finally moved on from that play against Baltimore last season, but the Broncos still need a safety. |
ROB! I am assuming you have hawks trading up from 32 to 31 to get Benjamin…haha jk, good mock, and I enjoy them very much.
I am not sure how I feel about Benjamin but def wouldn’t be apposed to a big receiver taken here.
seeing as we kind of have a need at OG and WR. how would you compare the depth of both these positions in the draft?
I have to say I am really pulling for Coleman here.
I think it’s a truly rotten year for guards. I suspect they’ll let Cable do his thing again, hand picking some mid/late rounders to throw into the mix. In fairness, these methods brought us Bailey, Bowie and Sweezy.
On the other hand, it’s a very talented receiver group. But it’s worth dipping into it early for me, the options in R1 are vastly superior to what you find later, even if the depth is good.
I like Benjamin. I have a few questions about his level of effort, I figure he will have plenty of chances to scrimmage with the seahawks secondary and that will tune him up. He has good hands and has made some game changing plays.
We can always double dip in the middle rounds if we want a second receiver or tight end.
The big issue with him is concentration, giving 100% on every down and avoiding the ridiculous drops.
Everything else about him wreaks of elite potential. But those are some big hurdles to cross, which is why he’s being touted as a late first rounder.
I think the competitive nature of our program, with who’s there at the corp, will make him work harder at it. I wouldn’t call “concentration issues” an issue at all with this team, top to bottom. (maybe the OLine…haha)
These are the same concerns that many had of Jermaine Kearse when he was coming out of UW. Great potential, but dropped passes were his nemesis. He’s turned into a nice player who’s come up with some clutch catches in his couple years with the team. I see more potential in Benjamin than I do with Kearse. Hands can be coached. Adrian Peterson spent an entire off season holding a ball because of fumble issues. Trust your hands and use that ridiculous talent you’ve been given.
Classic home run swing type of pick. He is flawed, which means he could be available for us where we are picking. But he also could be the very best WR in this class come this time next year. It’s vital that we each remember that these prospects are not as good as they will be even 5 months from now. Benjamin has hurdles, but this is a staff that is extremely good at developing talent. He is an outstanding base of talent from which this team can polish a superstar from.
And this is a team that just exudes dedication. I would expect this team can infuse that trait by the environment they have bred.
The biggest problem I have with Benjamin – and similarly Coleman – is this is a very deep draft for WRs, as Rob said. Because it is so deep, it does not make as much sense to expose your first round pick to the kind of risk those two players present. If this was a horrible draft for WRs with a huge drop-off after the first round talent and you had top have big receiver, go ahead and take the risk. But this is not that kind of draft. If you use a first round pick on a receiver this year, that player needs to be essentially fool-proof, otherwise there will probably be plenty of receivers with second round or even late first round grades (not too far removed from the grades of Benjamin and Coleman) that can be had on day two or later. In other words the risk of diminishing returns on taking a receiver early in this draft is greater. I am not convinced either Benjamin or Coleman are fool-proof, or have have the kind of long-term upside that would mitigate that risk.
If either of these guys were considered “fool-proof” we wouldn’t be having this conversation because they would be locks for the top ten. I haven’t followed college ball nearly as closely this year as I usually do, so please enlighten me. Who are these players that ” can be had on day two or later” that have the same kind of upside as Benjamin and Coleman?
Also don’t forget that as of right now the ‘Hawks only have one pick on the second day of the draft, so targeting talent in that “pocket” will be more difficult unless they make some moves.
Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are essentially fool-proof and are both likely to available with our first round pick, maybe even second round. Granted, they are not the same body type as either Benjamin or Coleman, but both figure to be very solid NFL players who I think may have better overall careers than either Benjamin or Coleman. So lower risk, high reward, fool-proof receivers can be talked about outside the top ten.
As for receivers who will be available past the second round who I think have risk/reward profiles similar to Benjamin and Coleman, I have posted examples in other, recent threads. Saying we have only one pick on the second day is the same thing as saying we have no third round pick, which we all know. It is my opinion that there will still be many quality prospects available from the fourth round on that fit our discussed need for a red-zone, high-point receiver. So it is not imperative to spend our first round pick on either Benjamin or Coleman who I think both have considerable risk of being busts.
I would agree with this in principle. Seattle likes to get quality throughout the draft.
However, I disagree with that premise based on the reality that Seattle isn’t just looking for a WR. They are looking for an X receiver. There is a significant difference there, not unlike the difference between a LT and a RT. The skill set and physical skills needed to play split end is extremely rigid.
We aren’t just looking at WR. We need a specific type. And this draft has guys that will fill that bill for us. But the quality guys aren’t going to be available in R2. We’d be getting another redshirt year prospect.
I suppose it depends on how rigidly an X receiver gets defined. Since Rice went down Tate has mostly been our X receiver – out of necessity of course – and he is certainly not what anyone would call a prototypical X, though I think he has done a decent job. We’ll probably just have to agree to disagree on whether we can find a more prototypical X receiver past the second round in this draft, which is fine. Reasonable minds may differ. I think we can find one without breaking much of a sweat, and he will be a player that contributes immediately. Honestly, I can easily see either Benjamin or Coleman being redshirt projects themselves, especially Benjamin.
I wonder if there is any way to get Jonathan Martin for a 4th round pick (using the Eugene Monroe trade as the comparison.) I think that is much greater talent than we would be able to draft, especially at that position. We seem to like the Stanford guys. He fit in with our locker room and maybe Miami is eager to move on.
… at that draft position (approx 130-140), using him at RT or either G.
Nothing about Martin’s play at Miami or Stanford makes me covet him for Seattle.
I will be ecstatic when we draft Kelvin Benjamin at #32!!! He is practically undefendable in the red zone. Our teachers and RW will impart the deficient Jedi concentration skills. This kid is an utter match up terror for opposing defenses.
Yeah, even while learning/honing his trade he could still be an effective red one option, which our offense needs. Even if he never fully reached his potential helping us convert in the redzone and scoring 10 TDs a year….still a valuable role player (floor). Ceiling = beast!
Enjoyed your mock as always Rob. What a week to be a Seahawk fan! I don.t think Jerry Jones is smart enough to make a pick like that. Not a Cowboys fan but man would that suck if our owner was like that.
I think the decision for Tate or Baldwin is really close right now from JS’s point of view. If we tender Baldwin for a 2nd rounder I am inclined to think a team would snap that up. A proven and ready to contribute right now receiver has serious value.
Last night I though about Baldwin and the 2nd round tender. At the time I was thinking to myself that SF could certainly use the talent at WR and they have the draft capitol. I know you don’t trade within your own division or league whatever.
Thoughts?
It’s certainly the type of move you could see these two teams doing to each other. However, I can’t see it on the basis that San Fran aren’t in a position to overspend (they probably pay Kaepernick this off season) and Seattle can essentially match any offer made to Baldwin. So he’ll be pretty safe IMO.
Plus this is a fantastic draft for wide outs, so I’m not sure anyone will feel the need to give Baldwin a big contract to get him out of Seattle.
I’m here in Dallas and get to watch the Jerry clown show first hand. The Clownboys draft is all about getting the player who Jerry thinks has the best smelling jock, for sniffing purposes. That means they will sell their entire draft to Houston to get Clowney first overall (see what I did there?) They seem committed to this whole 4-3 defense thing, in their own inimitable way, so Clowney would certainly fit opposite the rapidly diminishing Demarcus Ware, eventually replacing him. But really, that whole defense is such a dumpster fire that you could pick any draft eligible defensive player name from a hat and it would be a big upgrade. Jeremy Lane would be head and shoulders the best CB on that defense. DeShawn Shead would be the best safety that team has seen in a decade. If they don’t move up, they will trade out of the first round and take a long snapper in the second.
I’ve been thinking for a while that Bridgewater may become the 3rd drafted QB. He’s probably the most pro-ready, but doesn’t have the potential of the other two.
He has limitations the other two don’t have, but is a more polished player entering the league. The NFL is big on upside. Bortles is a prototype physical player while Manziel is a magician.
HA! Finally broke down Rob on Benjamin…
I would say either Coleman or Benjamin is more than worthy with our first pick, I wholeheartedly believe a tall, with some size, receiver is what we need. The reason I lean towards Benjamin is the tenacity and fearlessness he shows at getting to high point on the ball. He has center-field type skills that I’m not seeing just quite yet from Coleman.
I also think Benjamin is very much like Larry Fitz, very good at getting to high point, fearless of the incoming hit. I don’t see him as soft, which is what we need at that position.
Here’s Benjamin’s highlights again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTkyr7Qv8mc
Make sure to pay attention to at: 0:57sec, theres a slo-mo of that td catch, watch how he double pumps to high point that catch. That’s some incredible hang time there.
And heres a clip of Larry Fitz at Pitt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4t_gezXrp8
Pay attention to 2:00min mark, 2:34min, and 3:22min marks. Fitz and Benjamin look very similar receiver in those frames, obviously Kelvin needs to work on his consistency, but we could have a poor-man’s Larry Fitz come May.
I doubt the Vikings take a QB that doesn’t fit their scheme, even if they badly need one. Honestly, I’m more convinced they’ll find a guy in FA over drafting one. At least until someone that fits the offense becomes available.
I tend to agree with you Carl. First off I think they gotta be planning on seeing what Josh Freeman can do once he’s actually learned the system, otherwise why the hell did you sign him? Assuming you don’t want to put all your eggs in that basket (advisable) then why not try to bring in Schaub and have the two of them compete for the job? Not sure he’s the best scheme fit for Norv either, but who knows.
Hey Rob I’d like to get your opinion on a couple mid round receivers. Jarvis Landry from LSU, Cody Hoffman from BYU, and Kevin Norwood from Alabama. All three loom pretty good to me
Love Landry. Borderline first rounder for me. Definite early second round pick. Hoffman has some talent. In some games this year he totally underwhelmed. I saw a couple where he looked the part. I think R3 is about fair and he can be developed. Norwood pretty underrated and although he will go later on, he’s got a shot. Good overall skill set. Hard to get too many targets on that Alabama team and scheme.
Hey Rob, I’m wondering why Manziel for the Jags vs Teddy or Bortles? I almost think they could go a star D guy over reaching for a QB. I know it is easy to think Manziel is like Russell and there is the pick, but the GM is from SF – I think they might slide down a few spots and go defense.
I’m also fine with you putting Denver last… for now – that is what everyone thinks will happen any way… Monday you can switch them up.
Thanks again for all of your great work!
For me the issue is a lack of a star D guy first off. Then I just think Manziel is such a competitor, the type Gus can build around. If there’s a guy who can really lift that franchise, it’s Manziel. I think they might surprise a few people and go after him. We’ll see.
Manziel is the anti-Tebow brought to earth!!!
Thanks Rob!
How can you put a value on a GM who does great every draft? JS is 4-4 and with him and PC at the helm, Seattle is building a Dynasty.
NFL teams are now valued in the Billions of dollars. A front office like PC/JS are as good as it gets in building a franchise quickly with shrewd moves but mainly outstanding draft classes year after year, sustained success…
I don’t know their salaries or contract status but it feels like with the insanity of pro sports,revenue streams and and the multi-Billionaire owners that they could be worth 10X what they are making now. Be it from contracts and or part ownership or a combination of each. How much have the Seahawks increased in value over the last 4 years, $400 Million? $600 Million?
Put PC/JS with any mediocre NFL team where the owner stays clear like Paul Allen and they will build a powerhouse, no doubt about it. I know college football coaches change teams all the time when they are already under contract. Better offer, better program,new challenge or whatever they want to call it.
What would a multi-Billionaire owner be willing to give up to have his team in the Super Bowl, multiple Super Bowls? Some things money can’t buy. Some things money absolutely buys.
How iron clad are PC/JS locked in if they were offered a package deal of $85 Million a year for five years, guaranteed? P/C is not going anywhere because of who he is and because of his age, but why not JS? He is fairly young man. Why not go to a team that will pay you an insane amount of money to do what you have already done, again.
Sure there is loyalty and all that. As bad as it hurt, could you really blame A-Rod for accepting $252 Million dollar contract from the Rangers? Money talks, always has.
If we had to lose one of PC/JS, who would you choose?
I am delicious this week, Super Bowl. Thanks for commenting on my WFT comments.
Strange thought process considering Paul Allen is the richest owner in the league and could easily match any offer any of those other chumps could throw out there. Also I sort of think that it just doesn’t really work that way. In one sense owners are competing with each other, but at the same time they are all working together to make all 32 guys as rich as possible. Owners as a collective group can’t be sitting around hoping to drive the price of business up for everyone. In this way I think it is very different than college football.
I’ve only been really into the NFL for about a decade, but I’ve never heard of anything like this happening (maybe Gruden is slightly similar). Any examples you could point to that this sort of thing is even a viable option for NFL owners?
WTF
Good stuff Rob it looks like you’re about that action on Super Bowl week. I’ve been a Seahawk fan my whole life (32yrs). I can’t begin to tell you all how excited I am for this game. That said, I want to see us get there again which is why I enjoy your blog as it covers the future direction of the team I love. Rob/fellow readers, it seems to me that JS and PC have the talent evaluation on players that fit their “program” dialed in. What players on the current roster do you see as cornerstones that deserve big long-term extensions and what positions/players do you think can be drafted/replaced without missing a beat? My opinion is that the program is so strong most players are easily replaceable besides RW ,ET, BW, RO and KC in my opinion (can’t pay everyone…) That’s not to say other players on the roster are weak it’s a testament to how great this organization is currently being ran. Thoughts?
I’m all about that Super Bowl, boss.
I love Marshawn
OT: Is anyone as flustered as I am with the NFL writers incessant whining about the Lynch non-story? It has become sort of a “How dare you expose our lack of talent?” kind of thing. There is PLENTY of material with which to write numerous stories about Marshawn Lynch.
Yeah John Clayton was particularly surprising.
Who is Marshawn really mad at?
The media? He did give a few long interviews to national media but won’t respond to anyone else.
The NFL? You can get fined for not giving an interview, fined for wearing the wrong socks, fined for saying or doing the wrong thing, even fined for wearing a sombrero.
Himself? A hidden pool of anger that results in passive/aggressive behavior. It shows through- he’s angry about something.
It sounds like it goes back to his Buffalo days – Marshawn being Marshawn and some media types called him a gang banger or something like that because he wasn’t the most articulate and didn’t like his grill and such. Then he gets into trouble with the law, and it blows up on him. It sounds like it didn’t matter what he said, they twisted it to fit their story.
Marshawn’s from Oakland! He keeps it real!
I’m not even sure he’s all that angry at anyone as such. If you saw his interview with Deion Sanders that was clear. He just doesn’t have THAT much to say, which really should be no problem. He’s just doing the bare minimum to avoid a fine.
When you think about it, what running backs usually have much to say? Their job is relatively straightforward. Other than being a personality, they don’t necessarily have much to add unless you’re asking about the finer points and nuances of running, catching or pass pro. I think with Lynch what we’re seeing is push back at the mandatory nature of the whole thing.
Thoughts on a comparison between Brandon Coleman and Demaryius Thomas?
Both 6-3 to 6-6.
Both around 225lbs coming out of college.
Both are size/speed freaks
Both had limitations in college beyond their control (Thomas- Triple Option O, Coleman- Crap QB)
Both are projected in the lower 1st
I am not saying they equal each other, or to expect the same production from Coleman. But as far as comparing a draft player to an NFL Player… Is that a good comparison in you opinion?
I think Thomas has a different body type — thicker set, bit shorter. Coleman’s body type more a longer version of Josh Gordon but not skinny. I think they have slightly different styles. I think Gordon is a solid comparison for what Coleman is capable of. I think Kelvin Benjamin is more of a Demaryius Thomas style wide out.
I’m wondering what you guys think about this. The jaguars coached by guys Bradley, do you think he is going to build the team John and Pete did? I think their GM came from the niners so I’m not sure whether he would go for this. The jags go defense first whether it’s clowney, barr, maybe even Watkins (get out of the Blackmon shadow? ). Then I The early second go for the game manager QB in AJ McCarron? I honestly think AJ has the highest floor in this draft. It is a copycat league so was curious how plausible this would be in your minds.
The QB I like in the second or lower rounds is Zach Metzenberg – I could see the Jags picking him, if they don’t go QB in the first round.
Richard Rodgers TE out of Cal. 6’3 245. Soft hands. Tenacious blocker. Likes to block on screens. Blocks a lot. He could be had in the 4th. Doesn’t have the greatest burst, which might be a dealbreaker.
Combine needs to hurry up.
1st thing will be my cap casualty list and not all of them is about money. Sidney Rice, Paul McQuiston, James Carpenter, and Zach Miller on the offensive. James is the one I think that’s not a money drop but due to performance. Questionable players depending on what they want will be Breno, Tate and McCoy. Doug Baldwin will get tag with 2nd round tender. The defense I see Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons, Clinton McDonald, Red Bryant, and Walter Thurman. I think Thurman and McDonald just get better offers that we won’t be able to match and this could be also true of Tony McDaniels who I would like to keep but questionable about what he’ll want. Michael Bennett is a must resign in my opinion.
1st round David Yankey,
2nd round Brandon Coleman
I hoping Fitzgerald becomes a cap casualty in Arizona and signs with the Seahawks for a chance to win the big one like his x-team mate Boldin did.
I like this. with thurmond gone, i coud see lane or Rookie PS guy Akeem Aguste playing the Nickel corner. ive heard Sherman talk about Akeem alot and he sounds very good, said he got 3 picks in turnover thrusday. sounds like a perfect slot corner because of his size ( smaller and fast)
I was questioning Carpenter ealier in the year, but then I saw that he was starting in the last game. So the staff must see something in him that I don’t. I would still be tempted to send him off because he has injury issues.
Miller is valuable as a blocker and receiver. It isn’t his fault that we don’t pass to tight ends often. I would try to renogiate his salary to a lower level. He has been less penalty prone since he came back. Breno is worth keeping as long as his salary is in the 2-3 million range. Otherwise, there are plenty of right tackles in the draft.
Yes I would love to get Fitzgerald, but he would expect Harvin money and that is not possible.
I meant to say Breno has had less penalties since he came back from his injury.
Could we see the Seahawks make a play for Nix? Is he a hybrid type of player who could move between the 3 tech and 5 tech? I think the Seahawks were looking for this when they drafted Hill from Penn State last year (the jury is still out on Hill). I think Red Bryant and possible Mebane might be contract causalities that Carrol and JS make in order to keep Bennett.
Nix would have to be dirt cheap. I think someone will overpay him, so it’s unlikely.
Madmark, good list and I agree. The last two years I have been to Seahawks training camp. Big James has man boobs. Zach Miller is the highest paid Seahawk this season. Fantastic blocker but completely under utilized as a receiver. Based on bang for your buck, this may be Millers last season. Love him as a player but if we don’t call many plays for the TE, obviously it’s not worth the expense will so many other players contributing more and due for bigger paydays.
I love Zach Miller like all of the Seahawks fans. What I see thou is a blocking TE that really isn’t that fast. I truly think he’s lost a step or 2. Anthony McCoy made strides in his 3rd year but fell to injury. I think that mantra “we take care of our own” will allow him to test the market and if there no big offers they may give him a 1 year to prove it deal. James 2 1/2 years with injuries has had an effect on him physically and not in a good way but we did bring him back and tried to help him by changing him to a guard and he still struggled. In round 1 or you could say round 2 from where we are picking David Yankey can step into that left guard spot nicely and become that pulling guard we desired to open up holes for Lynch. Before you say taking a guard in the 1st is to high. You better think of the defenses we played in the NFC West and who they have opposite that guard spot.