Updated mock draft: 31st October

October 31st, 2012 | Written by Rob Staton

I wanted to do a mock draft with the quarterbacks falling. I don’t think it’s an unrealistic proposition, as discussed in yesterday’s piece. People will instantly point to this being a ‘quarterback driven league’ but there are enough question marks this year to consider the possibility we won’t see a quarterback in the top-10 for the first time since 2000.

As for the Seahawks – well we know they can be a tough team to work out. They’ve targeted pretty obvious needs the last two years, but the players they’ve drafted have been anything but obvious. I’ve given them Cordarrelle Patterson this time , a player with ideal size for a receiver with explosive playmaking qualities. He can get downfield, he’s useful on reverses and running plays and he’s a great return guy. He’s a home run hitter.

The big issue is he’s a ‘one or two big plays a game’ type. He’s not a ten catch player who churns out 100 yards regularly. Patterson has also had sloppy moments this year such as giving up on a pick-six against Akron and dropping an easy downfield pass against Georgia. If the Seahawks want a consistent target who can make multiple small plays in a game, chipping away at a defense, this isn’t the guy.

But the way Seattle’s offense is being utilised emphasises the big play and values special teams. They appear to want to run a lot and then hit you on a play action pass downfield. They want an X-Factor in the return game to create field position advantages and score cheap points. In that sense, Patterson fits the bill. And perhaps he can be coached into a more rounded receiver? This is his first year at the FBS level after playing in the JUCO ranks. For what it’s worth, James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin are also former JUCO transfers.

I do have some concerns about Patterson’s personality. How badly does he want to be a great player? How responsible is he going to be when things go badly? Can he mature as a pro, or will he be overwhelmed? These are things we can’t really answer without meeting the guy. Yet part of this process is trying to find the type of player the Seahawks may be willing to consider in round one. John Schneider is quoted as saying he didn’t think much of the 2012 receiver class. Here are the players taken in the first two rounds:

Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Rueben Randle.

Out of that group, are any similar to Patterson? Floyd, Quick and Jeffery are both big targets, but without great downfield speed. The most similar is perhaps Stephen Hill, but he didn’t make the kind of plays in college we’re seeing from Patterson. If the Seahawks continue to utilise a big play passing game to compliment a featured running attack, Patterson could be a good fit. Particularly given his quality as a return man.

Updated first round mock draft

#1 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Is there a quarterback worthy of this pick? If not, you have to take the best player.
#2 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Brilliant three technique who plays with intensity every snap. I think he’ll be a consensus high pick by April.
#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
Jacksonville needs a pass rusher and Moore has been one of the best in the NCAA this year. He has 10.5 sacks already.
#4 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback prospect. He can cover, he can play run support, he’s a ball hawk and has elite recovery speed.
#5 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
He’s become a more consistent pass rusher. Has anyone seen a guy like this before? 6-7 but moves with great agility.
#6 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
It’s unlikely he declares as a red shirt sophomore, but if he does – he could be a top ten pick. Elite potential. 6-6, 220lbs.
#7 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
He played well enough against LSU to show he could go this early next April.
#8 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
I’m not convinced he’ll go in the top ten. Huge upside but so inconsistent.
#9 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jets need another pass rusher and Werner could have a big impact in the AFC East.
#10 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Incredible athlete with untapped potential as a pass rusher. Ogletree could be great. There are some off-field concerns.
#11 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
How do you not take this guy here? He could be the best guard in the NFL in year one.
#12 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Great player with a few lingering off-field concerns. On the field though he’s a leader and a playmaker.
#13 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
He needs to rebound from two sloppy performances to get back into the top ten.
#14 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Cooper is only a notch below Warmack. Possibly the most athletic guard you’ll ever scout.
#15 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
He’s expected to have a huge combine. Teams love big, athletic pass rushers.
#16 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
Is Tony Romo getting an extension or not? Jerry Jones loves Arkansas, so this could be the alternative.
#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Incredible safety prospect. Could go much earlier than this. Deserves much more attention.
#18 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
If he drops, it could be painful. Arizona needs to find a left tackle, but they also need to find a long term quarterback.
#19 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The Seahawks don’t conform and might consider another left field pick. Patterson is a home run hitter. Can he be consistent?
#20 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He’s had some good games, but he’s a little over rated. This is great value though.
#21 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
Great nose tackle prospect who could go in the top-15. He’s better than Dontari Poe for me.
#22 Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
They need a receiver but Banks is a very talented corner – and that’s also a need.
#23 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
He’d be a top-15 pick if it wasn’t for his age. He’s approaching his mid-20’s as a former JUCO transfer.
#24 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
He could go much earlier than this, Mosley’s playing well enough this year to be a top-15 pick.
#25 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
Secondary is a bigger need but the value doesn’t fit here. Hankins is scheme diverse.
#26 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
He’s a better player than this placing. Expect Woods to land on a good team that can look for value.
#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
Not the flashiest player but nobody shows more effort. He’d look great in Baltimore.
#28 Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
A 6-8 tight end that makes plays and is a red zone threat? Sounds like a first round pick to me. He blocks well too.
#29 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
Williams is the kind of player that belongs on a team with attitude.
#30 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
Thomas was so impressive against South Carolina. He could play tackle or guard.
#31 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
He’s a playmaker and Houston could shoot for value here.
#32 Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
Perhaps the most impressive offensive player this year.

26 Responses to “Updated mock draft: 31st October”

  1. Son says:

    Hey Rob,

    I’ve never heard of any off-field concerns about Manti Te’o before I read your quick blurb. Do you have the liberty to elaborate? Thanks for the great insight throughout the years.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Not going to go into too much detail, but it’s nothing huge. Just a few reasons why he ended up at Notre Dame instead of BYU and some background there. It’s more to do with cultural problems. As long as he can do what he’s done at Notre Dame – keep away from certain places and concentrate on football – he’ll be fine.

      • dave crockett says:

        Notre Dame is pretty doggone strict, but NO PLACE is strict like BYU. Unless something ends up on the police files I don’t even pay attention to “problems” at BYU.

  2. Brandon says:

    “But the way Seattle’s offense is being utilised emphasises the big play and values special teams. They appear to want to run a lot and then hit you on a play action pass downfield.”

    Yeah, well, IMO they need to drop that philosophy like a bad slice of pizza and find a churner. Been worried for a while now about PC’s offensive philosophy.

  3. Well, Pete and John have taken a player with dreads in the first round every year, so this would fit in.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I’d love that to be a factor…

      “He runs a 4.4 forty… he’s 6-4… just what we need at the position…”

      “Plus he also has dreads…”

      “Get me the phone.”

      • hahaha I can totally see it.

        On a serious note, I’ve been really warming up to this idea over the last week or so. In a way, he kinda reminds me of Torrey Smith. He was regarded as very raw as a WR coming out of Maryland, but he had a knack for the explosive play (both as a receiver and as a runner), and both returned kicks. In fact, if you compare Smith’s stats from his junior year to Patterson’s from this season, there’s a striking similarity…

        http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cordarrelle-patterson-1.html
        http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/torrey-smith-1.html

        Smith has become quite a polished receiver and he’s established himself as a major downfield threat for Baltimore. I could see the same thing happening with Patterson. Obviously Smith had three full years at Maryland while Patterson has only the one at Tennessee, and Smith was a more prolific receiver. However, Patterson is a far more dynamic runner and returner, and he has a full four inches on Smith. I think I’d be very much in favour of this pick, though I kinda think they really can do no wrong, no matter who they select.

        • dave crockett says:

          OR… he could just be Darius Heyward-Bey. I’d much rather buy explosiveness on the open market than draft it.

          To me, drafting Patterson that high–unless we see a categorically different level of consistency in the remaining games–is the Tedd Ginn Fallacy: over-valuing athletic explosiveness at the cost of consistency.

          Sure, you’re willing to trade off *some* consistency for explosiveness, but you can’t trade off much. Catching the ball is a necessary condition for explosiveness. (To quote Doc Rivers: You can’t run without the ball.) And, catching skills tend to be apparent right away. For my $, there is a baseline level of consistency and you can’t look at guys beneath that in the first couple rounds no matter how tantalizing. For all our frustrations with Golden Tate, he catches the ball pretty well overall (despite some high profile drops). THAT’s why he was a good gamble with a 2nd rd. pick. He’s already decent and still has upside.

          I’d rather buy a guy like Ginn on the open market as a return guy, occasionally explosive wideout than draft him in the top 15 like Miami did. (Next 5 players in the 2007 draft: Amobe Okoye, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Adam Carriker, Darrelle Revis)

  4. Ananth says:

    My biggest concern with Patterson is that he becomes another Golden Tate. Oozing with talent but raw m inconsistent and good for atleast one bone headed play every game. Tate can make plays like that GB touchdown every game but also gives you drops and bad blocks like the SF game.

    • MJ says:

      Agreed, but I’d say that Patterson is on a different level when it comes to upside. Bigger and faster. Tate’s upside is a good #2 (will never get there), but Patterson has the talent to be like Julio Jones (less physical).

  5. Stuart says:

    It’s great to see your Mock Rob! It was about this time last year that I caught the Mock Draft Bug. This year it’s so different and way more exciting to think about. You always do such a realistic job and your research has a Seattle slant that you just cant find anyplace else! Everybody who comes here loves that, THANK YOU!

    First I would like to say that St. Louis would have a dream draft in that scenario. Arizona would improve immensly too! For all the reason’s you listed I would love to have Cordelle Patterson on our Seahawks. Even though CJ Mosley LB and Jonathan Hankins would still be available in this scenario.

    My question is if the Seahawks modify their offensive strategy like Brandon suggests, would it be better to draft Robert Woods because he would be a chain mover? He could be our “Wes Welker”? JS hates trades and loves his draft picks but what about stepping up to the table and drafting both of these players? What would it take draft capital wise to do this? Would next years #1 and this years #4 be enough to make it happen? Our window is here…

    • Rob Staton says:

      The one thing with Welker is he’s kind of a unique guy. I had a chance to stand right next to Wes Welker on Sunday and I thought, “I could cover this guy”. He’s just a dude. I’m 6-4, he’s 5-9. There is nothing remotely spectacular about Welker. He’s just one of the best receivers in the NFL. It’s kind of that Steve Largent situation where there’s no obvious athletic reasoning for him being a great receiver, he just is. Having Brady helps, but Welker is nearly unstoppable. And players like that usually appear from nowhere. Welker went undrafted after all.

      So what I’m asking is – can Woods be a guy like that? I’m not sure you can rely on him to just get open like Welker does, that doesn’t flash on tape. What he does flash is ability with the ball in his hands. With Woods you need to give him the ball quickly and let him work. USC have him running little trick plays and jet sweeps, or they have him run screens and little motion plays. We don’t see as much of that in the NFL and he won’t easily run away from people at the next level. I’m beginning to think Woods is best placed in a high octane passing game such as Green Bay or New Orleans. That way you get him running in a lot of 3/4 WR sets and he’s not getting blanket coverage. He can be the guy who runs underneath who goes down field on any given play, he can run screens.

      Seattle isn’t going to change the offense because this is what they do. Russell Wilson makes that even more the case with his mobility and play action passing. They like Baldwin as a money guy on 3rd down and it’s a shame he’s been hurt so much this year. But I’m not sure they’ll a.) see Woods as a similar player or b.) feel the need to draft competition for Baldwin in that area as a priority. I won’t rule out Woods because Pete Carroll recruited him, but I also think there are better fits. This is were Patterson comes in because he fits the big play passing game they’re using. They want the quick strike to play off the running game.

  6. AlaskaHawk says:

    I would rather have the TE toilolo because he will play every down, is a valuable blocker, and can be used for a quick pass. He will also replace a player due over 10 million next year.

    In short, we need to use our first round picks on people who will play- not specialty people who can be found in later rounds.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Can you find a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson in the later rounds? You could argue it’ll be easier to find an effective TE beyond the first. After all, Gronk, Hernandez and Jimmy Graham aren’t first round picks.

      • dave crockett says:

        Maybe can’t find ONE guy like Patterson, but because his skill set is so narrow you could probably find his skill set replicated across 2-3 players for less $.

        You can find quality returners in UDFA at any position, not just WR. Someone does every year, pretty much without exception.

        You can find raw, athletic WRs that can potentially take the top off the defense in later rounds too. Why draft Patterson when there’s a good chance all he’ll ever be is Lockette? If that guy had ended up in St. Louis or Arizona instead of here and SF he’d be getting some run.

        • AlaskaHawk says:

          We have been trying to find tight ends in free agency. Even the ones who seem promising are not game changers. That versus some teams that do have game changing tight ends. Maybe part of the problem is play calling and getting open. I just think we should start there as we need the blocking for runs also.

          I don’t think it is fair to call out names of past players from later rounds that succeeded. If so We can add Brady and Welker to that list. in fact they didn’t used to draft QBs before the third round, and look how that has changed. We all agree that TE play is key these days, let’s draft a good one!

  7. Phil says:

    Rob – How does Tavon Austin’s game compare with Wes Welker? I see that Austin (5’9″)is closer in size to Welker than Robert Woods (6’1″)is and Austin has 74 receptions this year vs. 53 for Woods.

    Up to last week’s game vs. Detroit, I was convinced that what the Seahawks needed was a tall WR or TE. After seeing what a couple of smurf WRs like Titus Young (5’11”) and Broyles (5’10”) did to us, I’m thinking that maybe I shouldn’t be so sure that size matters.

    • Rob Staton says:

      As mentioned in the other response earlier, the thing with Welker isn’t so much size. He’s unique. There’s nothing about him that says he should be one of the best receivers in the NFL, he just is. And part of that is Brady, but he’s just one of those Largent types that shouldn’t be great, but is. Austin is the same size but whether he can ever match that way of just getting open and making plays, we’ll not find out until he hits the league. And Seattle does have Baldwin to use underneath and we have to remember – they don’t run an offense like the Pats that utilises a guy like Welker.

      • dave crockett says:

        One thing I will say about Welker’s athleticism, and I’ve been watching him since he played for Leach at Texas Tech, is that he’s super quick. I bet serious money that his 10-yard splits are probably elite or close to it. His squat build also facilitates getting in and out of his breaks quickly. American football is one of the few sports where being short has at least some advantages. (I say this as a 5’9″ guy who won the first 10 yards of most races.)

  8. adog says:

    i’m warming up to drafting a D.lineman in the first round this year-Jenkins would be hard to pass up in the late first round. I”m not sure Carroll can resist one this year. Maybe they can draft receiver in the third or fourth rounds, TE in the second, and grab a up and coming receiver via free agency-i like Simpson from the Vikings.

  9. James Donaldson says:

    I would not be shocked to see the Hawks go defense, though the first round seems to be very defense-heavy, which means great value in the 2nd-3rd rounds for solid offensive players.

    Ideally, I’d like to see them trade down and see if a Patterson/Woods type is available, and then use the 2nd/3rd for a RT like Fluker, a WLB like Arthur Brown, and a TE like Dion Sims, who isn’t a burner but is a big guy with athleticism who can block and would be a huge target in the red zone.

    There are also some good WR who will be available in the 2nd/3rd rounds as well – Rogers, Quinton Patton, etc. etc.

  10. Darnell says:

    In think Terrance Williams from Baylor will have to be in the conversation.

    6’3 and though I don’t have a 40 time for him, eye test says he’ll run high 4.3s or low 4.4s. He has a nice resume of catching deepballs, no known issues, nice hands and the production has maintained even without Griffin3.

  11. […] to watch the games and try to understand fit. This is why I gave the Seahawks Cordarrelle Patterson in my latest mock draft. They’re focusing on the running game and trying to use big strikes in the passing game. They […]

  12. A. Simmons says:

    I still want Chance Warmack. Okung, Carpenter, Unger, Warmack, Giacomini would be an awesome line. Our interior line would be good enough to keep the pocket nice and clean.

    If we could get a great pass rushing DT or WR. I’d be ok with that as well. But Warmack would allow us to outmuscle other teams with fair ease.

  13. Alex says:

    Generally speaking, I’m only in favor of picking elite, elite WRs in the 1st round and those are generally picked within the top 5 picks. These are the Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz, Megatron, and AJ Greens of the world. The reason is that WRs have a considerably higher bust rate than all other positions (unless they’re elite, elite) and WRs in general take longer to develop. Unless Brandon Coleman steps in, I’m really hesitant about a pick on WRs when there is a few 3 Techs remaining on the board. Generally speaking, 3 Techs are picked in the top 5 if not top 10. This year, the surplus of DTs will make a few slip through the cracks to where the Seahawks are picking and I believe this is the year to pick one up. It’s the most important piece left on the defense and I believe the other piece (WLB) can be picked up in the middle rounds.

    I believe it’s very possible to grab a high potential WR or TE in Rounds 2 and 3 to develop over a course of 3 years, which is the generally the timeline needed for WRs to develop. DTs? They are usually gone by the first 3rd of the R1.

    Alex