Month: October 2014 (Page 3 of 3)

CFB week six: Beasley ties record, thoughts on Brett Hundley

Vic Beasley has 28 sacks in his last 25 games — tying a Clemson record. The 28th was a sack, strip, touchdown (see above). He explodes off the edge, coasts past the tight end and makes a huge play. Beasley is well known but remains underrated purely due to a lack of brilliant size. In terms of a speed rusher, he’s a fine prospect who certainly warrants top-15 consideration. Look at the production. He’s not going to set the edge and play dominant run-D. He’s not going to line-up inside in nickel. He’s just a flat-out speed rusher off the edge. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Of all the top ranked pass rushers eligible for the 2015 draft, Beasley remains the most intriguing right now. Nobody has his get-off, speed to round the edge and lean/balance. He can use his hands when he needs to. He’s a big-time competitor. He’ll make a ton of money at the combine. Expect a split in the 1.5 range and a very fast forty time.

He lacks bulk and length. Ideally you’d like to see longer arms and the ability to add weight. Marcus Smith was long and looked like he could add 10lbs — he went in round one to the Eagles. Beasley shouldn’t try to add too much weight and he has shorter arms. But he’s incredibly fast. Difference making fast. He’s on a different speed level compared to Smith.

At the end of the day you can’t ignore the production. 28 sacks in 25 games — seven in total in 2014. At the next level he can be productive in passing situations and on third down. Any team needing a speed rusher will have a long hard look at Beasley.

Brett Hundley is not a first round pick

Draft pundits are desperate to force quarterbacks into the first round debate. It happens every year. Every season we see mid-round QB’s getting hyped up. I guess it helps fill out a pointless October mock draft.

This year UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Michigan State’s Connor Cook are getting the hype treatment. Cook is a very average prospect. He’s not particularly elusive or a threat to run. He doesn’t have a big arm. His decision making in the pocket is inconsistent. He’ll force throws and make mistakes. The Oregon tape was hit and miss. Where’s the first round appeal?

Against Nebraska he completed just 11/29 passing and threw a pick and a score. Eleven completions at the college level?

The league is hopefully learning from Minnesota’s error in drafting Christian Ponder in the first round in 2011 — a pick that looked hopeless at the time. Average college quarterbacks lacking tilt-the-field ability are wasted picks.

Hundley is a different case. He has some arm talent. The problem, however, is he’s so lacking in terms of pocket awareness. He takes an age to get the ball out. He’s gun-shy and unwilling to pull the trigger. He constantly hesitates looking for a wide open target. It’s the main reason why he’s been sacked over 100 (!!!) times at UCLA.

Yes, he’s playing behind a poor offensive line. There aren’t many ‘dirt bags’ blocking for Jim Mora. But it’s no excuse and last night’s Utah game was a prime example. Hundley was sacked ten times and several could’ve been avoided.

On the sixth sack of the night he was supposed to fire a quick throw to the outside after a three step drop. His footwork was appalling — it took him far too long to complete the drop and set. He had the single coverage he wanted but still pumped the ball anyway and absorbed the sack. Everything about this play has to be sharp. Drop, set, throw. Hundley made it look so laboured and it’s a really simple concept.

There were various other examples where Hundley’s basic technique let him down — but he also has a really bad habit of holding onto the ball far too long. He locks onto his first read and lingers. He’s not progressing through reads and at the nearest sign of pressure the eyes drop and he’s trying to scramble. He’s not going to be getting overly complicated defensive looks in the PAC-12 and even still — he’s finding it hard to make quick decisions. At the next level he’s going to need to read plays a heck of a lot better — and he’s going to have to be much more decisive to go with the technical improvements he’ll have to make (footwork is vital).

The frustrating thing is he had two throws in the game that really wowed. The first was a lazer between two DB’s to the right sideline. Perfect placement, arm strength and touch. He scored a late touchdown to put UCLA ahead (they were eventually beaten) that looked equally pretty. Yet these are offset by the issues. He conceded a terrible pick six lofting an attempted screen pass straight to the DB. Again — he’s not reading the situation. The screen wasn’t on, Utah had the play covered. He needed to improvise or throw it out of bounds. Instead he just lobbed it straight to a defender who gladly accepted the pick and the touchdown. It’s not good enough.

You can’t invest in Hundley as a potential franchise quarterback. For me he’s a mid-round development pick who needs to sit and learn behind a veteran, accomplished starter. He will struggle like crazy if he’s challenged to start quickly. It’ll be car crash.

Right now it wouldn’t be a major surprise if Marcus Mariota went first overall and we didn’t see another QB taken in the first round. Jameis Winston’s laundry list of off-field incidents will be a major cause for concern — so much so you wonder if he’ll even declare for next years draft. This is only his second season as a starter, after all. He’s a redshirt sophomore. As things stand — Cook, Hundley and the rest don’t warrant first round consideration.

Other notes:

— Kevin White (WR, West Virginia) equalled Steadman Bailey’s WVU record with a sixth straight 100-yard game. White had six catches for 132 yards in a win over Kansas, including one touchdown grab. He leads the NCAA for passing yards after a relatively ineffective day for Alabama’s Amari Cooper at Ole Miss.

— Whatever happens to Georgia down the stretch, Todd Gurley should win the Heisman. He’s the best player in college football this year and should be a first round pick in 2015 — even as a running back. Melvin Gordon (WR, Wisconsin) also has a great shot of getting in round one. It’s hard to imagine any other RB’s cracking day one, including T.J. Yeldon and Jay Ajayi.

— Shawn Oakman (DE, Baylor) is going to be a top-ten pick if he tests as expected at the combine. In one play against Texas he shed the left tackle, destroyed the running back and made a huge sack. Height, length, power, speed. Oakman is a beast and will go a lot earlier than some are currently projecting.

NFL draft prospects who’ve started well in 2014

Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)
Nothing has changed here — he will be the #1 pick in 2015. He’s yet to throw an interception this season, he’s showing technical progression and he has the potential to be Kaepernick-plus. It’s hard to imagine the team picking first overall passing on Mariota. Why would you? He’s the real deal.

Eric Striker (LB, Oklahoma)
He’s an athletic playmaker and the perfect compliment to Oklahoma’s pro-ready D-line. The Sooners have plenty of beef up front and Striker flies around. He rushes the passer from the edge, he moves sideline-to-sideline. He just makes plays. He doesn’t have ideal size but if you keep him in space, he’ll impact games.

Jacoby Brissett (QB, NC State)
He had to leave Florida to get his shot — but he’s making up for lost time at the start of 2014. He can move around for a big unit, he’s throwing well downfield. You don’t need to be Russell Wilson, you just need to be elusive. Brissett might not declare for the next draft but he’s one to monitor.

Shaq Thompson (LB, Washington)
Few players have done more than Shaq Thompson to boost their stock. He already has three touchdowns on defense, he’s taking snaps on offense. The scary thing is he can get better. Thompson’s athleticism will appeal to teams picking in the top-25. He can feature in any scheme. He’s a modern day defensive playmaker.

Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)
Big, competitive and productive. White is enjoying a break-out year. He high points the ball, he knows how to get open. He’s a definite Biletnikoff candidate. In a year without a lot of quality receivers turning pro, White could go earlier than expected.

Shawn Oakman (DE, Baylor)
He’s a freak of nature. The NFL loves freaks of nature. Is there another man on the planet who is this tall (anywhere from 6-7 to 6-9) who carries 280lbs this well with such brilliant athleticism? He’s destined to go in the top-10. He’s a better prospect than Ziggy Ansah.

Markus Golden (DE, Missouri)
He has four sacks so far despite missing a game with a hamstring strain. He has it all — ideal size to set the edge, a brilliant speed rush and the ability to disengage a blocker and make splash plays. Golden is incredibly underrated and destined for the first round if he tests well. He should do.

Shane Ray (DE, Missouri)
Golden’s team-mate is the sack leader in the NCAA with eight so far. He was unstoppable in the first half against South Carolina. He’s not the biggest but he’s still effective stunting inside and working through blockers. He’s gritty, he plays with an attitude. Could we see two Missouri pass rushers in round one next year?

Jordan Phillips (DT, Oklahoma)
339lbs nose tackles who run back fumbles for 69-yard touchdowns are a rarity. Chapman isn’t just a big body who wears you down in the run — he can act as a pass rusher too. He plays on a terrific defensive line filled with NFL talent, but he’s that rare athletic big man who nearly always goes early. Missed last year with an injury waiver and is listed as a redshirt sophomore.

Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson)
He has 27 sacks in his last 24 games. He terrorised potential first round left tackle Cameron Erving. Speed kills in the modern NFL and Beasley has plenty. There will be concerns about his size and length, but expect a super-fast forty time and ten-yard split. He could be a high pick.

Damian Swann (CB, Georgia)
Georgia changed defensive coordinators this year, hiring FSU’s Jeremy Pruitt. They needed to make a change — their defense was a disorganised mess last year. Swann regressed more than anyone but he’s back with a bang in 2014. With the right guidance he can develop into a fine NFL corner. Goes after the football.

Arik Armstead (DE, Oregon)
Like Oakman, he has a rare combination of size (6-7, around 295lbs) and athleticism. He’s exactly the type of player the NFL is willing to take a chance on in round one. He’s been inconsistent at Oregon but a dominating performance against Michigan State was very encouraging. I’m eager to see the Washington State tape.

Notable mentions:

I didn’t want to include too many obvious candidates here. Clearly Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia) and Melvin Gordon (RB, Wisconsin) have delivered on their promise and could be first or second round picks next year. Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama) is back to his technical best. He’ll get marked down for a lack of elite size/speed, but like A.J. Green he’s such a natural receiver. Dante Fowler Jr (DE, Florida) continues to make plays on a struggling Gators defense. Randy Gregory has 4.5 sacks in his last two games and could be the best 3-4 linebacker eligible for the draft. Denzel Perryman (LB, Miami) is having another big season while Devin Funchess (WR, Michigan) has made a solid adjustment from tight end to receiver. All of the big name tackles have prospered and we could see 6-7 first round offensive linemen again. Ty Montgomery (WR, Stanford) always seems to make plays.

Players I’m not totally sold on yet:

Leonard Williams (DE, USC) — is he a special enough athlete to play 4-3 defensive end? If he has to kick inside or act as a five-technique, does that limit his stock? Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) is having a massive year in terms of statistics but does it translate? Is he enough of an athlete to warrant early pick status? To me he looks like a mid-rounder. Can anyone justify putting the future of their franchise in the hands of Jameis Winston (QB, Florida State)? Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB, Oregon) hasn’t had a great start to the new season and Shilique Calhoun (DE, Michigan State) just looks like the player who struggled badly in last years Big-10 Championship game. Marcus Peters (CB, Washington) has the potential to be excellent, but can he be trusted and can he become more consistent?

Several teams will be in the QB market next year. Right now, Mariota might be the only viable prospect to go in the first frame. Unless you want to gamble on Winston. And it would be one heck of a gamble. Brett Hundley (QB, UCLA) is too boom or bust and lacks technique. Connor Cook (QB, Michigan State) is being touted as a potential first round pick by some. Why, exactly?

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