Month: April 2024 (Page 2 of 5)

Will the Seahawks wait until #81 to pick again?

I think there’s a chance they will trade up. As we mentioned yesterday, some of John Schneider’s best moves involved trading up on day two — D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed. I think we could see a level of aggression today to find a way to fill the void between #16 and #81.

A year ago the Seahawks received a future third round pick from Denver for moving down 25 spots (#83 to #108). Perhaps they could sacrifice their 2025 third rounder to make a similar move? Could #81 and next year’s third get you into 50’s or 60’s in this draft?

It might be more palatable to do that, given the Seahawks are projected to get a fourth and fifth round comp pick in 2025.

Alternatively, can they dangle a player trade? Increasingly it feels like Dre’Mont Jones is not for long in Seattle. The Seahawks need to create cap space in the coming weeks and parting with Jones is one of the few options they have. Trading him this weekend would save $4.8m. If they trade him after June 1st, they’ll save $11.5m.

For that reason, they might wait until training camp to do a player swap or just get whatever they can to make a decent saving. It could be an option though to dangle him in a trade situation, as part of a package to move up from #81.

Who could they target?

I think it has to be offense and in particular — O-line and quarterback.

If they wanted to move up for a blocker the names that stand out for me are Roger Rosengarten and Christian Haynes.

Someone I trust mentioned a few weeks ago that the UW staff now running Seattle’s offense have a lot of time for Rosengarten. The feeling is he has elite movement skills (he ran a 4.92 forty and a 4.60 short shuttle at 308lbs) and his combination of hand usage and ability to set is high level. The area he struggles is with his anchor — but that can be worked on.

There’s a chance he’ll go earlier than people think and could be viewed by some as a left tackle project. If he lasts into a range where they can go up and get him, they might.

As for Haynes — he’s a rough and ready blocker who played with consistent aggression and intensity even during blow-out losses for Connecticut. He has outstanding football character and his tape is really good. His body type is unusual — top heavy and his physique is quite different to, shall we say, Byron Murphy. But he’s a plug and play blocker.

I wouldn’t rule out trading up for a quarterback. James Palmer’s story about making calls to move up for Michael Penix Jr was interesting. I think they’re minded to add one in a way that isn’t a throwaway pick.

What might complicate things is the first round rush on the position. You’re now left with Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt. They might come off the board earlier than ideal because teams like Las Vegas, the Giants, the Rams and one or two others might similarly want to invest in a QB.

I can imagine Seattle pushing the boat out for Rattler’s potential. I can also see them sticking at #81, or moving up a few spots, to get Pratt. We’ll see. The beauty (and point) of the Sam Howell trade was to have options. They now have options. But I can imagine them having interest in the two quarterbacks remaining on the board.

What if they stay at #81?

There’s a decent group of interior linemen who will likely go in the #65-100 range including Cooper Beebe, Zak Zinter, Christian Haynes, Dominick Puni, Mason McCormick, Beaux Limmer, Sedrick Van Pran, Matt Goncalves and Christian Mahogany. There are some really good options here.

This would be where Pratt comes into play I think.

It’ll also be interesting to see which tight ends remain from the group including Ben Sinnott, J’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson and Jared Wiley.

In both scenarios — trading up or staying put — it’s also about who remains available. Does someone last into a range where you just have to go and get them?

I think there’s been too much focus on linebacker and safety as early round priorities for the Seahawks this off-season. They’ve signed two good linebackers and two safeties. I think they’ll wait until day three at both positions personally — but again, if an opportunity arises to get a difference maker, they may act.

And how they grade players may differ compared to the consensus. I think Dominique Hampton is worthy of the #81 pick, for example.

There’s a chance a really good player (or players) lasts to #81. Look at Lance Zierlein’s day-two mock for example. Payton Wilson is the pick for Seattle, one spot ahead of Brandon Coleman and also just ahead of Ben Sinnott, TJ Tampa, Dadrion-Taylor Demerson, Dominick Puni and Spencer Rattler. If it works out like this, they won’t have to move anywhere. In fact you could make a case for trying to trade up from #102 to get back into the end of round three.

Beyond round three

Looking at the remaining players on my horizontal board — those two fourth rounders at #102 and #118 are going to provide real value. I’m convinced by it.

I would also stress to Seahawks fans — if they don’t add an offensive lineman on day two, don’t stress too much. Such is the nature of the class, there will be options at the start of day three. I keep saying — Michigan’s O-line was prolific for three years. Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan, the two starting guards, are both currently slated to be day three picks. Jarrett Kingston at USC is highly explosive. Isaiah Adams had a good Senior Bowl.

Given they picked at #16 and didn’t acquire a ton of extra stock, this now isn’t going to be a draft where they address every need and have every fan thinking they ticked everything off. The priority instead is going to have to be talent acquisition and value — adding quality.

Horizontal board for day two

With all the speculation in the build-up to the draft focusing on defensive backs, I almost had to watch the announcement of the 16th pick through my fingers.

Byron Murphy and Troy Fautanu were both available. Either was fine by me. Surely they weren’t going to go cornerback? Surely they were going to follow what the Head Coach had been saying about wanting to be physically superior up front?

Then, relief. Roger Goodell announced Byron Murphy’s name. The player who was being tipped to go in the top-10 throughout the last week was instead one of the value picks in the first round.

It’s a fantastic statement of intent by the Seahawks. Re-signing Leonard Williams wasn’t seen as job done. They weren’t settling for that. Now, they can pair Williams with Murphy and let the pair wreak havoc. After years of watching the 49ers and Rams push the Seahawks around in the trenches, this is an opportunity to get a bit of revenge.

Seattle now has ample talent across the D-line. Throw Jarran Reed into the rotation, not to mention newly signed natural nose tackle Johnathan Hankins, and the Seahawks are ready for a fight up front. This is a far better situation than a year ago, where the numbers were so thin going into camp along the interior.

This will massively help the run defense. It’ll keep the linebackers clean. Murphy and Williams are athletic enough to stunt outside and cause real problems. They can move them around the line and create opportunities. It’s intriguing.

Last year at Texas, Murphy had a productive year. He led all defensive tackles with a pass rush grade of 91.5. His overall defensive grade (91.1) was second only to teammate T’Vondre Sweat. He ranked fifth for pressures (45), second for hurries (36) and his pass rush win percentage (19.1%) was way ahead of any player. Mason Graham in second had a percentage of 16.4%.

What I would say is I don’t think he’s necessarily ever going to be able to collect sacks. He hasn’t shown he can get the easy wins yet. When you watch Calijah Kancey at Pittsburgh a year ago, he won so often with burst and an effective swim/rip to get those easy wins. Murphy doesn’t show that on tape — he’s more powerful, disruptive. It might mean he’s never an 8-10 sack-artist at the next level. Grady Jarrett, who he’s often compared to, had a career high of 7.5 sacks in 2019. That might be his kind of peak range. Yet like Garrett, he’ll have every opportunity to play a complete brand of football.

The first round was unpredictable and at times, utterly insane. No restraint was shown in the top-12 as needs were prioritised. It all led to a tremendous opportunity for the teams picking 13th onwards. The Raiders didn’t waste any time snapping up Brock Bowers. The Saints nailed their pick with Taliese Fuaga. The Colts took their top rated defender with the pick of the bunch and then the Seahawks followed suit with Murphy.

It continued with the Rams (Jared Verse), Steelers (Troy Fautanu), Dolphins (Chop Robinson) and Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell). The teams who were willing to be patient were rewarded. Several players taken between #13-22 were top-10 worthy.

Seattle did the right thing not trading down. The drop-off from #22 was significant. It wasn’t worth missing out on Murphy to acquire extra stock. It’s the ideal starting point for the Mike Macdonald era and this latest draft class.

So what now?

It will not sit well with John Schneider to wait until #81. He’s been an active day-two trader in the past (Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed, DK Metcalf, Darrell Taylor). A year ago, Seattle gained a future third round pick to drop from #83 to #108. Could they use their 2025 third rounder to move up from #81? It might be more palatable than usual given they’re expected to gain compensatory picks in rounds four and five next year.

If there’s an offensive lineman they really like — perhaps Roger Rosengarten, Christian Haynes or Dominick Puni — it might be worth moving up to really feel like you nailed the two lines. Perhaps they could be bold for a quarterback like Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt?

If a few key names stay on the board towards the end of round two, it won’t be a shock if the Seahawks make their move.

We’ll finish by addressing this:

The #Seahawks, #Saints and #Raiders all tried to get into the top 10 for Michael Penix per sources.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 26, 2024

If true, then it speaks to Seattle’s determination to start adding at the position. If they’d pulled it off, it would’ve changed the landscape of the franchise forever. They do need to take some shots — and I wonder if a significant move on day two is coming up.

Here’s my horizontal board, updated with the players drafted removed:

If you missed our day one reaction stream, check it out here:

If you have enjoyed the draft coverage this year why not support us via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Draft Live Blog! I’ll be posting reaction to every pick.

Please do not tip picks in the comments section

#1 Chicago — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
A predictable choice, as he was destined from two years ago to be the top pick this year. A sensational talent with the ability to play both within structure and make the impossible happen. The only question is, do the Bears have the staff to max out his amazing potential?

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
His play elevated way beyond expectations in 2023, at almost a Joe Burrow level. His running ability is exceptional but don’t sleep on his deep accuracy, arm strength and X-factor talent. He’ll need weapons and a left tackle, though.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
I gave him a second round grade. He doesn’t have the upside many have suggested but the technical flaws and decision making was a consistent concern on tape. He had some bad games last year and I thought Spencer Rattler outplayed him in the South Carolina game.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
An excellent player and some of the underwhelming chatter about him during draft season has been bizarre. This is a legit player coming to the NFC West and he will be a serious problem for years to come.

#5 LA Chargers — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I have concern about his height and how he’ll handle leverage. He tested better than I thought he would — he’s athletic and explosive. There were some really good moments on tape, some others where I wondered if his upside was fairly limited to ‘solid pro’.

#6 New York Giants — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
There’s no doubting Nabers’ talent. I thought they might prefer Rome Odunze because of the chatter about Nabers having some slight character concerns. His success will be dictated by New York’s ability to find a quarterback.

#7 Tennessee — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
There was a lot of talk he would go in the top-10. I’m a bit surprised the Titans took him. Is he a legit left tackle? Do they keep him on the right side? Are there any concerns about his weight management? Nevertheless, his feet are fantastic for a man of his size.

#8 Atlanta — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Wow. What a move by the Falcons. They just paid Kirk Cousins a fortune and rather than build around him, they draft his eventual replacement. Any time Cousins struggles, he’ll now look over his shoulder. They’ll also use at least two years of Penix Jr’s rookie deal watching him sit on the bench. However, I respect the investment in the most important position in the sport. He was QB3 on my board and he goes before JJ McCarthy.

#9 Chicago — Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago)
It’s a great pick for Caleb Williams. He’ll love how often he can throw 1v1 to this guy and watch him find a way to get the ball. His ball-tracking and hands are elite, as are his body control. And when it comes to character, he is A+++. The opposite of a diva receiver.

#10 Minnesota (v/NYJ) — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Vikings have traded up one spot in a deal with the Jets. It cost them a fourth and fifth round pick — they get a sixth back from New York. I don’t think McCarthy was worth giving up a ton of picks for. The Vikings did the right thing being patient, assuming they didn’t want Penix Jr instead. McCarthy has great intangible qualities and charisma but his tape was unimpressive.

#11 New York Jets (v/MIN) — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I’m shocked. I felt for sure they would make a ‘here and now’ pick like Brock Bowers. Instead, they draft another tackle. He has the physical tools to be very good but his technique didn’t improve as hoped in 2023. The first 11 picks in the draft are all offensive players.

#12 Denver — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
It’s astonishing how the quarterbacks have flown off the board but this, for me, is a huge reach. Sean Payton clearly believes in him and it was a major need. But I had a third round grade on Nix. The amount of quality still on the board is remarkable.

#13 Las Vegas — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
13 straight offensive players and this is a heck of a pick for the Raiders. An immensely talented, dynamic weapon who will add so much to the Raiders. With several reaches so far, in my opinion, this is tremendous value.

#14 New Orleans — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
An excellent player. He’s aggressive, sets the tone for your team, he’s athletic. I remember the first game I watched and it was a ‘sit up in your seat’ moment. He just consistently demolished the right side of the line, finished every block and he personifies violence on a football field. 14 straight offensive players.

#15 Indianapolis — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
There’s no doubting his technical quality. His plan to get away from blockers is top notch. He sets them up over time, he might be the best ‘counter’ rusher I’ve watched. The concerns are the neck injury and whether he’ll be as effective against more ruthless, aggressive NFL offensive linemen. He’s the first defender off the board. The Seahawks are on the clock.

#16 Seattle — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
It’s a stick and pick situation. I like the pick. Look, it had to be for the trenches. I want to build quality up front on both sides of the ball. I want to scare the rest of the league with our D-line for a change. I love Fautanu and wanted him in Seattle but who knows how the knee is impacting things? Murphy was expected to go earlier than this. Two thumbs up from me.

Here’s my video reaction to the Murphy pick:

#17 Minnesota (v/JAX) — Dallas Turner (EDGE, Alabama)
I thought his tape was underwhelming and that he was overrated throughout the process. The Vikings trade 2025 stock to move up. He has major athletic upside but I was left wanting so much more when I watched him.

#18 Cincinnati — Amarius Mims (T, Georgia)
He is so talented. The upside potential is crazy. If he can stay on the field, there’s no reason why he can’t end up being one of the best tackles in the league. The Bengals love huge offensive linemen.

#19 LA Rams — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
This is a fantastic pick for the Rams. A pure, power edge rusher who can flatten opponents but also get around the edge. He tested better than many expected. He will be a menace in the NFC West. The Rams, like the Seahawks, benefit from the desperation of the QB-needy teams in the top-12.

#20 Pittsburgh — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
Sensational pick for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He fits them wonderfully. Play him at left tackle. He’s a classic AFC North player. He’s aggressive, violent, highly athletic and his character is off the charts. This is amazing value.

#21 Miami — Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
I mocked Chop to the Seahawks at #22. He’s just so quick, so dynamic. This is excellent value again. The Raiders, Colts, Seahawks, Rams, Steelers and Dolphins all benefit from the madness early on. He could be a serious game-changer in the Ravens defensive scheme, which is being transplanted into Miami.

#22 Philadelphia — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
This worked perfectly for the Eagles. They didn’t need to trade up and got the cornerback who best suits the Vic Fangio scheme. Yet again, another team finding value because of the ridiculous start to this draft.

#23 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
They had to do something to help Trevor Lawrence. He’s lost Calvin Ridley and had a regression season in 2023. Thomas Jr is a major downfield threat and his testing at the combine was eye-catching. He looks the part and watching him at the LSU pro-day, he stood out there too.

#24 Detroit (v/DAL) — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Cowboys get a third rounder for moving down five spots, which is good value for them. Arnold had been mocked to the Seahawks by Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. He’s a wonderful personality and great to listen to. I like Arnold as a player but he was inconsistent. He fills a major need for the Lions and he totally fits the personality of the team.

#25 Green Bay — Jordan Morgan (T, Arizona)
A surprise pick but not a surprise position. There was a feeling they liked Rasheed Walker at left tackle but it wasn’t convincing. They have young talent on offense but needed a pass-protector. I’m not sure Morgan’s length will do him any favours if he stays at left tackle.

#26 Tampa Bay — Graham Barton (G/C, Duke)
The Buccs’ biggest need might’ve been interior O-line so having Barton last up to this point is great for them. He was such an accomplished player at left tackle, plus he’s very athletic and plays with an edge. He can settle in at center perfectly in Tampa Bay.

#27 Arizona — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
I like all three picks made by Arizona and LA so far. Robinson is a physical beast and he can wreck plays up front. He will be a problem, especially if they can find complimentary rush threats who can provide quickness. He wins with length and power. He was the Senior Bowl player of the week this year.

#28 Kansas City (v/BUF) — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
The Chiefs made a deal with the Bills to move up from #32, giving up a third rounder. Obviously he has the speed and with Patrick Mahomes’ arm, they’ll hope he can do what Tyreek Hill used to do. However, I thought his tape was inconsistent.

#29 Dallas (v/DET) — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
He’ll be happy to stay close to home. He was the last player with a ‘legit’ first round grade on my board. This is good value. He’s very athletic, has a ton of potential and I think he can play left or right tackle.

#30 Baltimore — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
There was a feeling he had similar coverage qualities to Devon Witherspoon — just without the hitting and physicality. I gave him a second round grade because of his size and his tackling was poor. As a cover-corner though, he has a lot of talent.

#31 San Francisco — Ricky Pearsall (WR, Florida)
I have to say, I like all of the NFC West picks today. This guy can play. He’s an outstanding athlete, he’s going to be a problem. Especially in this offense. Now they can shift Brandon Aiyuk and get a good day-two pick.

#32 Carolina (v/BUF, KC) — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
The Panthers have jumped up one spot. Legette told the media this week he was expecting to be taken at #33 by Carolina. And it actually came to fruition, just a pick earlier.

1. What’s going on?

I’m intrigued that two people, Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler, both randomly mocked cornerback Terrion Arnold to the Seahawks at #16 in their final mocks. Jeremiah explained on the NFL Network he’d heard whispers of the team doing a lot of work on the position.

Either this pair have played an absolute blinder with their sources, or this is one of the more ludicrous things I’ve seen in a while. There’s no middle ground.

Or maybe there is? I like Arnold. His personality is A+ and he’d fit the Seahawks in that regard. If they’re truly going ‘best player available’ and he’s BPA when they pick, OK then. That’s how you qualify it.

There are also people out there who think Quinyon Mitchell is one of the best 2-3 defenders in the draft. If they really are committed to their board, I guess the cornerbacks could be higher than a lot of other players at different positions.

Yet it’d be so utterly frustrating. At least for me. Mike Macdonald’s been saying this week how they want to beat teams up in the trenches. They want to try and copy the hard-nosed style of the AFC North. They’ve gone on about that for years — but they’ve been finesse in the players they’ve selected.

Adding another first round corner, to go with the one taken fifth overall last year and the 20th overall receiver, not to mention the two previously wasted first rounders on Jamal Adams and the second rounder on Dee Eskridge, would be more of the same.

What good is it having talent at corner if a middling team like Pittsburgh can travel the length of the country and run the ball down your throat like they did in week 17 last season? They had Seattle’s pants down, on both sides of the ball.

If they took Arnold at #16, they wouldn’t pick again until #81. There’s a very real chance that their most significant additions to the trenches this year would be George Fant, Laken Tomlinson and Johnathan Hankins. That’s how they would be going about fixing the problem, with the new staff.

It’s unthinkable to me that they would do this. But we’ll see. I think perhaps people have become so focused on trying to work out ‘what Mike Macdonald wants’ and have ended up overthinking things. Arnold at corner, Cooper DeJean trying to be squashed into some type of Kyle Hamilton lite (even though he never even played safety in college).

Here’s the crux of it. This team has been crap in the trenches for years. The new staff might be an antidote of sorts but they need help. The pass rush remains milquetoast, the O-line doesn’t cut the mustard. And by the way, they don’t have a long term answer at quarterback.

Before adding more defensive backs, a year after spending a top-five pick on the unit, maybe the Seahawks can focus on what really matters? In a draft tailor made for the trenches.

I’m guessing these mock predictions are simply going to go the same way as the rampant ‘Jalen Carter at #5’ talk we had last year, in the final stages. Thankfully we only have a few more hours to wait and find out.

2. Can they get the best of both worlds?

If Troy Fautanu has a flagged medical due to his knee, could he last a bit longer than originally expected? Assuming it’s not a major issue, of course.

What if the Seahawks were able to trade down, get the picks they want/need for day two, and still get Fautanu?

That would be a home-run scenario. And frankly, I’m not sure it’s that unrealistic.

3. A few predictions I want to get out there

I still think it’s very likely the Seahawks are going to take a quarterback relatively early. Spencer Rattler in round two. Michael Pratt in round three. I wouldn’t 100% rule out Michael Penix Jr or Bo Nix either. I think John Schneider is determined to start adding at the position.

I think the Seahawks might be higher on two Huskies than most people think. One is offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten. The other is safety Dominique Hampton. If they don’t take an offensive lineman in round one, keep an eye on Rosengarten.

Braden Fiske’s medicals are a thing to consider but his testing, playing style, Senior Bowl and combine workout are interesting. He’s not an ideal two-gapper but I wanted to mention him today.

A quick reminder I’ll be doing a live blog throughout the draft and I’ll be joining PuckSports’ live broadcast at the start of round one — be sure to tune in!

Please check out my recent appearance on VSIN this week, just published to YouTube. The more views, comments and likes the better!

So here we are. The final mock. I’ve written a ton of notes below on the Seahawks. But first, here’s the darn thing in all its glory…

Final 2024 NFL mock draft

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Now we get to see if the Bears finally have a franchise QB.

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
The second best quarterback in the draft.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
The fact the Vikings and Giants appear to want Maye so badly will probably embolden the Patriots to stick and pick.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
They don’t get a haul and decide to stay put and take the best overall player in the draft (talent + character).

#5 LA Chargers — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
Reportedly they’re eager to move down but is anyone busting a gut to move up?

#6 NY Giants — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Malik Nabers has some character question marks and there have been questions about how he’d handle being in a big city. There are no such issues with the sensational Odunze.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I’ve said for weeks — Brian Callahan has brought his dad in to coach up the line. In Cincy, it was all about the weapons. Nabers, Nuk Hopkins and Calvin Ridley would be a dynamite trio.

#8 Atlanta — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
All the talk is that Murphy will be the top defender taken. Raheem Morris knows the benefit of great defensive tackle play.

TRADE #9 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The Colts make a splash and do a deal to jump the Jets for Bowers, supposedly New York’s not-so-secret top-target.

#10 New York Jets — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
The word is if Bowers is gone, they’ll take Fuaga.

#11 Minnesota — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
I’ve never thought he was worth multiple firsts to trade up. The Vikings might just sit tight and see who’s left between McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

TRADE #12 Philadelphia (v/DEN) — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
The expectation is Philly will aggressively pursue Quinyon Mitchell who fits the Vic Fangio defense perfectly. Yet Howie Roseman typically prefers to draft for the trenches.

#13 Las Vegas — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Raiders miss out on the top right tackles and pivot to the top cornerback on their board instead.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
They’re going to draft a tackle, it’s just a question of which one.

#15 Chicago (v/IND) — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
Their biggest need is to find a partner in crime for Montez Sweat.

TRADE #16 Pittsburgh (v/SEA) — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
The Steelers move up four spots to get ahead of Jacksonville to select the second cornerback off the board.

#17 Jacksonville — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
They need more help for Trevor Lawrence.

#18 Cincinnati — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
Although there’s a concern over his knee, Fautanu being the complete package with positional versatility will make him extremely coveted.

#19 LA Rams — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
In the last two off-seasons, the Rams have focused on massive offensive linemen.

#20 Seattle (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
The Seahawks take a player they hope Aden Durde and Mike Macdonald can turn into their version of Micah Parsons.

#21 Miami — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
They were the team who took a shot on Jaelan Phillips, who also had a serious neck injury that almost forced him to retire.

#22 Denver (v/PHI) — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
The Broncos don’t take a quarterback here and wait until round two. Instead, they take an impact pass rusher.

#23 Minnesota (v/HOU) — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
The Vikings keep the 23rd pick and fill a crucial need on defense.

#24 Dallas — Graham Barton (T/G/C, Duke)
They’ll hope he can emulate Zack Martin.

#25 Green Bay — Cooper DeJean (CB, Iowa)
The Packers have needs at corner and safety, so they can try him at either spot.

TRADE #26 Detroit (v/TB) — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
The Lions jump in front of the Cardinals to make sure they get Robinson, who grew up a Lions fan.

#27 Arizona (v/ARI, HOU) — Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
Cornerback is a need and most of the top pass rushers are gone.

TRADE #28 Las Vegas (v/BUF) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
The Raiders bide their time and then trade back into the first round for their quarterback.

#29 Tampa Bay (v/DET) — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
He’s had an exceptional pre-draft process.

#30 Baltimore — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
This would be terrific value for the Ravens.

TRADE #31 Washington (v/SF) — Jordan Morgan (T/G, Arizona)
Adam Peters calls up his old team and does a deal to secure a left tackle.

#32 Kansas City — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
I think he has heavy feet and should go much later but he’s being connected to the Chiefs.

The trades explained

Indianpolis trades #15, #46 and #82 to Chicago for #9 and #75
The Colts aggressively move up to add Brock Bowers for Anthony Richardson, meanwhile the Bears trade back into a range where they can still get a needed pass rusher and fill a hole by acquiring a second round pick.

Philadelphia trades #22 and #50 to Denver for #12
The Eagles use one of their two second round picks to go and get JC Latham — who starts at guard as a rookie and will eventually replace Lane Johnson at right tackle. The Broncos, meanwhile, trade back with the intention of drafting Bo Nix in round two.

Pittsburgh trades #20 and #84 to Seattle for #16
The Seahawks would probably love to add a second rounder but they settle for this, knowing they’re only dropping four spots. The Steelers jump the Jaguars for Quinyon Mitchell. The Seahawks then have two third rounders and two fourth rounders — a collection they could use to trade up if they wanted to.

Detroit trades #29 and a 2025 third rounder to Tampa Bay for #26
The crowd erupts in Detroit as the hometown Lions announce they’ve gone after locally born Darius Robinson, who grew up following the team.

Las Vegas trades #37 and #77 to Buffalo for #28
The Raiders wait on the quarterback position and then make their move for Michael Penix Jr in the late first.

Washington trades #36, #139 and #152 to San Francisco for #31
The Commanders give the 49ers two fifth rounders to move back into round one for left tackle Jordan Morgan.

Notes on the thought process for Seattle

— I still think Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu are stick and pick candidates. However, the reported medical flag for Fautanu’s knee is a real question mark, especially with an uncertain future for Abe Lucas. I don’t think Fuaga makes it to #16. Fautanu might because of the knee. Whether the Seahawks take him will be interesting given the news.

— The league appears to love Byron Murphy. It no longer seems realistic that he will last to #16 — but he is another stick and pick candidate.

— I think there are two wildcard scenarios. One is Michael Penix Jr. Until I see him wearing another team’s cap, I’m going to assume there’s a possibility he’ll reunite with Ryan Grubb. However, after seriously considering putting him in the top-half of round one, I think his frame will dissuade teams from going all-in on him. I sense there will be a lot of ‘like not love’ because of his stature and how he’ll handle NFL punishment, even if his arm is exceptional. Two, if they really are concerned about Lucas’ ability to return, will they prioritise a right tackle in a draft that is loaded at the position? For example, could they look at Amarius Mims?

— It’s also possible the Seahawks look at this as a rare draft. I have 20 legit first rounders on my board. Last year I had nine and the year before 11. So that’s the same number of legit first rounders in 2024 as the 2022 and 2023 drafts combined. This draft presents a unique opportunity to trade down and still, almost certainly, draft a player who carries a first round grade.

— With a rush on offensive players early, I think some very talented defenders could fall. So while originally I figured the Seahawks would do the obvious thing and just draft to improve a questionable O-line — I think based on their last two drafts, a ‘best player available’ approach after trading down could easily steer them to the defense.

— The Seahawks will not be motivated by need. Take last year. We could all see the team needed a defensive tackle badly. If not two. They waited until round four to draft Cam Young. They were so strict with their board/gradings, they left themselves thin at DT going into camp. I’m not saying they’ll definitely wait until round four to draft a guard but it’s not out of the question.

Thoughts on Seattle’s first round pick

It came down to two players.

Fuaga and Murphy were gone and Fautanu would’ve been considered at #20 but the Bengals grabbed him. After moving back four spots, the two players I considered were Chop and Darius Robinson.

Let’s start with two quotes from Mike Macdonald shared by the team this week:

“We’re going to change the looks, move guys around and attack offenses differently.”

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

This tells me two things. Firstly, deception on defense is critical, as is versatility and the ability to keep opponents guessing. Secondly, they want to build from the front and deliver a highly physical team. That points to the trenches.

This is why I think highly aggressive, physical linemen like Fuaga, Fautanu and Murphy will be potential targets if they make it to #16. Macdonald is spelling out how he wants his team to be.

I find it astonishing that people continue to talk about Cooper DeJean as a first round possibility for Seattle. He played cornerback and is an assumed safety convert, so there’s a perception he can be a chess piece. Yet as we’ve noted multiple times, he played 1183 snaps at corner for Iowa, 173 in the slot, 23 in the box and had one snap at deep safety. He hasn’t been a chess piece. He’s been a cornerback. He’s projected to be a versatile weapon, mainly because his stiffness in transition gives people pause to believe he can stay at corner.

The team who had its arse handed to it by an average Pittsburgh team at the end of last season can’t take another defensive back at #16 then wait 65 picks to address another need.

I stuck to the trenches. I focused on two highly versatile players. One who is a brute force destroyer with the size and physicality to deliver violence up front. The other who could be used in the same way Aden Durde experienced with Micah Parsons in Dallas.

Darius Robinson split his snaps in 2023 between over and outside tackle. In the two years prior, he attacked the B-gap. He has played right across the line and it’s very easy to imagine him being used in a multitude of ways to create pressure.

When you watch Chop Robinson’s pass rush snaps against Michigan, you see him lined up in a variety of different positions. When I first watched him the name that jumped to mind was Parsons. It’s a lofty, likely unattainable comparison. He has that upside though. Again, the Seahawks just appointed Durde to be their defensive coordinator from the Cowboys. He’ll know all of the creative ways Dallas rushed Parsons. Imagining Robinson in the same role in Seattle’s defense isn’t difficult.

Here’s two players that can give opponents different looks, different questions to answer pre-snap, and can also disrupt and create havoc with their very different characteristics. Darius has a remarkable 285lbs frame and blows plays up with power, explosion and length. Chop is dynamite off the edge with rare suddenness and bend. Few turn the corner like he can.

Here’s Greg Cosell’s assessment of Darius:

“I really like this kid. He’s got tremendous length and mass. He’s got really strong hands, strong grip, arm extension, he locks-out, he sets the edge. I think he’ll develop more as a pass rusher the more he plays. I really like Darius Robinson a lot. You wouldn’t call a guy that big ‘sudden’ but he’s a very good athlete for his size. Guys that big you can always say they’re a little stiff and tight but they’re just very big. Guys like that are not going to look and move like Chop Robinson. I think he’s the kind of guy you need to keep watching because he’s not going to make those dynamic, spectacular, explosive plays where you go, ‘oh my look at that’ but if you keep watching him, he’s just a really good football player. He may not be the guy early in his career who gets 12 or 13 sacks. Could he develop into that? Possibly. I also think he’s the kind of guy you can line up year one and he’d play meaningful snaps and be good at what he’s asked to do.”

And here’s what he said about Chop:

“Obviously he’s an edge player at his core but when you get to third down you want to move him around, you want to make him a stand up ‘joker’, you want to give him a runway to use that speed and velocity. He’s nowhere near as powerful as Micah Parsons but in a sense you’d want to use him like that where you line him up in different places in those pass rushing situations as opposed to just putting him on the edge with his hand in the ground.”

For what it’s worth, Chop and Parsons had near identical vertical jumps (34.5 vs 34), three-cone times (7.01 vs 6.96) and broad jumps (10-8 vs 10-6). Chop handily beat Parsons in the 10-yard split (1.54 vs 1.59) and short shuttle (4.25 vs 4.40) — that’s despite weighing 254lbs compared to Parsons’ 246lbs. The one seriously freaky thing about Parsons is that he has 11-inch hands (Chop’s are 9 1/8 inches).

Both Robinson’s also fit Seattle’s recent ‘no compromises’ approach to character. Read for yourself, with Tony Pauline’s latest on both published this week (Darius, Chop).

Here’s what Bob McGinn’s scouting sources said about both players:

Darius Robinson

“He’s determined to be great,” said one scout. “That’s what I love about him, and it’s all real. He comes from (bleep).”

“This sucker might have the highest ceiling in the whole draft,” said a second scout. “The build, the talent. You watch him in the SEC, they line him up over tight ends in a 6-technique and he beats the shit out of that tight end. Kind of like Wayne Simmons back in the Brent Jones era. You say, ‘Holy smokes, they might throw him in prison for that.’ He is physical and violent.”

“He is violent. Plays his ass off. He’s gonna be really productive. He can win outside with a 4.97 40 because he can kick your ass. He’s got enough get-off. He’ll win because he’s got 34-inch arms and (big) hands. He’s as good a grab-and-jerk pass rusher as there in the draft.”

Chop Robinson

“Love him,” one scout said. “I see Chop every bit as good as (Dallas) Turner. Sky’s the limit. He’s why coaches get paid. Now you’ve got some work to do with him. You get annoyed because he doesn’t have a (lot) of production this year (four sacks, 15 tackles in 10 starts) but he only played 50% of their defensive snaps. They rotate the hell out of guys.”

“Must be an ambidextrous kid,” a second scout said. “I’m telling you, you don’t find that. He’s got a burst off the edge that’s rare. This is one of the few players you will ever see that can slip and dip and make the L move at the proper angle and depth of the quarterback, and he can do it from the left and right sides. And he can play the run. He’s not a hit-and-shed guy. He’s an escape guy. He runs off blocks. He doesn’t defeat blocks but he’s so quick and athletic he doesn’t have to beat on ‘em. He can escape and pursue down the line. This is what everybody’s looking for.”

“He’s sudden, explosive, plays his ass off,” a third scout said.

The bad forty doesn’t scare me with Darius Robinson. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player look like he does. With that size, that frame, that playing style. I’ve said this a few times — he reminds me of a bigger, less twitchy Jadeveon Clowney. Unlike Clowney, he could easily be the leader in the locker room by year three.

Let’s go back to that Mike Macdonald quote from earlier:

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

That sounds very much like Darius Robinson, just as it also sounds like Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga, Byron Murphy and Jared Verse, in fairness.

With Chop Robinson, the upside potential of someone who can do what he does off the edge is terrifying (for other teams). It’ll create easy wins, to hopefully pair with creative scheming to put him in position to do damage. If you can get a Parsons type, with the creativity of Macdonald guiding him, that’s a difference-making factor. The kind Seattle badly needs.

Under Pete Carroll, I’d have had no confidence that he could take hold of someone like Chop Robinson and create packages and looks to enable him to wreak havoc. With a defensive coordinator who has worked closely with Parsons in Dallas and a Head Coach known for defensive wizardry, Robinson might be more intriguing for Seattle than virtually any other team in the league.

Other players don’t carry the same versatility. Jared Verse is a speed-to-power demon but I don’t see any real positional flexibility or disguise with him. He’ll rush the edge, do his thing. He isn’t really a player you move around. Laiatu Latu can line up inside but how keen are NFL teams going to be to do that with his neck history? Jer’Zhan Newton is an interior pass-rush specialist only.

The two Robinson’s, for me, feel like very realistic targets for Seattle. I had to pick one and went with the upside of Chop and the potential to try and emulate what the Cowboys do with Parsons.

Why I doubt my own pick

This is the best offensive tackle draft in years. John Schneider has often bemoaned the lack of quality tackles coming into the league. They have a question mark with Abe Lucas. The offensive line is the biggest priority for improvement, if we assume the Seahawks cannot find a legit, young, franchise quarterback in round one.

If they stick and pick Fautanu at #16 after months of saying they’d take him if he’s there, I’ll kick myself with this mock. The knee has just made me reconsider at the last moment.

It won’t be a surprise if they take the best offensive lineman in round one, still go with a quarterback in the rounds 2-4 range but target a pass rusher like Jonah Elliss, possibly, in round three. Perhaps if they can’t trade down, or simply are fortunate enough to have Fuaga or Fautanu (knee permitting) fall to them, that will solve the problem.

I also think the Seahawks might be determined to add more stock than a mere third rounder if they trade down, especially if they have a different quarterback in mind (eg Spencer Rattler).

Seahawks seven-round projection

#20 (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
#81 — Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State)
#83 — Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
#102 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#118 — Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
#179 — Ryan Flournoy (WR, SE Missouri State)
#192 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
#235 — George Holani (RB, Boise State)

Final thoughts

Over the last 24 hours I’ve come to realise how utterly stupid ‘final mocks’ are. I recall a year ago Peter King agonising over his, writing consistently about his keenness to get as much right as possible.

Mock drafts are at their best when they pitch theories, ideas and possibilities between January and April without any pressure to be ‘accurate’. Trying to guess what will actually happen tomorrow is futile. The people who ‘hit’ typically are just very lucky. We have no real idea what’s going happen. The reporters out there might get the odd nugget or two — but not enough to create a fantastic mock.

Let’s just embrace the brilliant unknown of the draft. 32 GM’s, many under the influence of owners, will provide three days of entertainment from Thursday. I hope you enjoy it.

I also hope you’ll stick with SDB throughout. Here’s what the plan is:

— As the draft kicks off, I will be on PuckSports for approximately 20 minutes giving my thoughts.

— I will be live-blogging my reaction to each first round pick. When the Seahawks make their selection, I will record a quick video which will be uploaded to my Youtube channel.

— At the end of each of the three days, I will be doing a live stream giving my reaction to Seattle’s picks.

— I have agreed to appear on the Cigar Thoughts draft show on day two, with a time to be confirmed.

If you have enjoyed the draft coverage this year why not support us via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

This is how I’ve graded the class, based on tape study starting in May last year. 288 players in total are included and it’s been a long process to get to this point. I’ve not taken players off the board that I don’t think will be drafted by the Seahawks — so this isn’t a team specific board. It’s an overall grading board.

If I were running a team, I’d probably reduce this down to about 100-120 names. Especially in the day three range, there are just a lot of players I wouldn’t want to draft.

Here’s the board and I’ll run through some thoughts after (click to enlarge):

Names in red have current injury concerns or a known injury history

Strengths in the draft

It’s pretty clear in round one that the two key positional strengths are receiver/pass catcher and offensive tackle. The trio of Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, along with Brock Bowers, are a fantastic group. It would’ve been unthinkable in previous years to say a modest prediction for the number of first round offensive tackles in a single class would be seven — yet we could realistically see more this year.

I also think there are other, far less discussed plus points about this class. It’s a much better safety class than people recognise. I’ve got 10 players graded in rounds 2/3. Several of the 10 could last into round four. So while there aren’t any top-20 players at the position, you have a fantastic opportunity to add a good safety at the start of day three in this draft.

This is the most explosive offensive line class since we started measuring traits in 2016. It particularly shows up at guard and center. Seahawks fans might be fretting about what the team will do with the interior O-line — but I think they can get a talented, high-upside player in the middle rounds as a worst case scenario.

At cornerback, there are also players who will be available in rounds 3-5 who offer upside potential.

Weaknesses in the draft

It’s extremely difficult to build an argument for taking a linebacker early. The talent just isn’t there and I think some players are being pumped up to fill the void. Although a lot of Seahawks fans want the team to draft for the position early for depth/competition, I think they’re better off waiting until later on and taking a chance on traits/upside or players they believe can be a schematic fit. For me, the process at the position is all about seeing whether Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson can establish as starters beyond 2024 — rather than using a high pick on a position where the options just aren’t there. This isn’t the draft to find a solution for the long term at a position teams increasingly are not prioritising.

We did hear the Seahawks talk about ‘green dot’ players during free agency — the individuals responsible for calling the defensive plays on the field. Per Bob McGinn’s scouting sources, here are some names to monitor in that regard:

In interviews with several scouts, the consensus was that six of the top 10 linebackers are sharp enough to be “green dots” immediately or fairly early in their NFL careers. The list includes (Payton) Wilson, Cedric Gray, Jeremiah Trotter, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Tommy Eichenberg and JD Bertrand. Junior Colson was a maybe. “Wilson’s a double green dot,” said one evaluator. “He’s Luke Kuechly’ish. He’s a heck of a player. But is he going to be able to stay healthy?”

Tight end is a difficult one to work out. There are a collection of players who tested very well in the short shuttle and 10-yard split. The top TE’s in the league generally perform well in those tests. There’s ‘diamond in the rough potential’ with a number of players — but it’s possible we only see two tight ends drafted in the first two rounds.

Edge rusher is also a position where I think the pockets of talent are short and sharp. You’ll have a group of two, three or four players bunched together in tiers who will possibly be drafted in the same range as soon as one player starts the run. Then you might have to wait another round or a round and a half for the next run to start.

Injury concerns could impact the class

Tony Pauline told us on Friday that Troy Fautanu had a knee issue flagged in medical checks. This was the first I’d heard about this — and then Albert Breer reported the same thing yesterday. Here’s what he said:

Washington OT Troy Fautanu’s knee was flagged. That one was described to me as the sort of issue that shouldn’t be a problem in the short term, but could wind up impacting his longevity in the pros (though his high football character is a factor in making teams feel like he’ll do all he can to take care of it, and give himself the best chance).

Firstly, in terms of the Seahawks, you have to wonder what it means for how they view him. They’re already dealing with an offensive lineman with knee issues in Abe Lucas. This news concerns me.

Secondly, it’s hard to know how teams will view this information. The problem for Fautanu is with this being a loaded offensive tackle draft, teams may simply pick someone without the knee question mark.

Braden Fiske has an extensive injury history and Tony also told us his sources have said it’s not a good picture in terms of the medicals. He has the talent to go in the 25-35 range — but the injury could keep him on the board. It’s the same for Payton Wilson.

There are other things to keep an eye on. Junior Colson did no testing pre-draft due to injury. Teams have no physical data for him and is he an injury concern? Zak Zinter continues to recover from a broken leg. Matt Goncalves, the incredibly talented tackle who will move inside to guard in the NFL, has been dogged by injuries in college. Erick All the tight end has faced the same problem. Jer’Zhan Newton didn’t do any testing pre-draft. Cooper DeJean is still recovering from a serious injury. Edefuan Ulofoshio has a significant injury history. Kiran Amegadjie missed most of last season. Cornerbacks Kool-aid McKinstry and Ennis Rakestraw Jr have some injury question marks.

Finally, two big name players. Laiatu Latu nearly retired due to a neck injury. There’s some concern about his ability to play in a three-point stance as a consequence, rather than in space where he can keep his neck/head out of the play. His tackling style has also become rugby-esque and there’s a thought that he might suffer for the hip-drop-tackle rule change. One team took a chance on Jaelen Phillips, who had a similar problem, so someone will take a chance on Latu. But it’s likely to be a mixed bag of opinions in the league.

Then there’s Michael Penix Jr. For me, the injury history isn’t the big concern. It’s his frame. He won’t have the same benefits he had at Washington. His inability to deal with an excellent defensive gameplan by Michigan in the National Championship didn’t bother me as much as the sight of him limping off the field, beaten up, at the end of the game. There’s no doubt he has remarkable arm talent. Some teams will wonder, though, about how his body will take the regular hits that are coming in the NFL.

Players I’m lower than the consensus on

At no point have I watched Drake Maye and felt like I was watching someone with the ability to become a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. His footwork needs fixing, he misses too many easy throws and his decision making is highly erratic at times. He lacks the supreme physical upside to balance out the flaws. The magical moments often felt a bit flukey, rather than inspired.

I don’t think he’s a bad prospect. I have him in round two, essentially as a top-45 player. I rate him in the same way I rated Jordan Love. He was given time and patience to develop and that’s what Maye needs.

I also understand why a team would take him as early as say third overall. When you need a quarterback, you have to take shots. If you put him on a team with a sensational offensive mind and let him sit for a year or two, that would be an attractive proposition. I’d have a hard time trading a massive haul for him though — and neither the Commanders or the Patriots have that sensational offensive mind leading their teams.

If I were New England, I’d take whatever Minnesota’s offering to get up to #3 and if they’re determined to draft a quarterback — I’d take Michael Penix Jr at #11 instead, after collecting a haul of picks.

I appreciate JJ McCarthy’s intangible qualities and why teams have fallen for him. His tape, though, left me hugely underwhelmed — both in terms of physical upside and quality. He isn’t special as a thrower. His arm is OK. He won’t be playing for a loaded Michigan team next year, overwhelming all opponents. I wouldn’t trade a bunch of picks for him and when I do my final mock tomorrow — I might reflect on a potentially colder than expected market for a non-spectacular player. Right now I’m inclined to back my own assessment — that he isn’t someone worth trading up for.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu has technical flaws that concern me and I wonder about his ability to translate to a NFL blocking scheme quickly. There’s no doubting his physical upside though — I just don’t see him as a top-20 talent in this class. I don’t think Jackson Powers-Johnson is a first round pick. I think Kingsley Suamataia has heavy feet and Patrick Paul’s habit of extending his arms out before contact is a frustrating technical flaw. Both players will go earlier than I have them graded.

I ranked Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga and Amarius Mims ahead of Joe Alt and Dallas Turner is my DE4.

I also have Bo Nix graded in round three. I was really disappointed with his showing at the Senior Bowl and the combine and wanted to see him throw with confidence and let it rip. Instead, he looked tentative and more limited than I expected. There are some characteristics that are appealing but I wouldn’t want to put the kind of investment in him where you’re obliged to start him and try to make him the focal point of your team.

Players I’m higher on than the consensus

Chop Robinson has Micah Parsons upside and for that reason, I’m buying into bringing him onto a team and challenging your defensive staff to make him great in a versatile role. If his knee clears, I believe Troy Fautanu is the best offensive lineman available. Likewise for Braden Fiske — if he passes his medicals, I think he’s a top-40 talent after the best combine I’ve ever seen — to go with a relentless motor and aggressive playing style.

I have Malik Mustapha and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson graded in round two, with Dominique Hampton and Kitan Oladapo in round three. Ben Sinnott is my TE2 and I have him as a top-50 player. I think Spencer Rattler has shown more translatable pro qualities than Maye and Nix. I think Penix Jr is QB3.

Linebacker Nathaniel Watson is too impactful to grade lower than a late round three for me. Defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo is in the same range due to his outstanding athletic traits. Beaux Limmer is the most explosive offensive lineman to enter the league in years. I was really impressed during tape study of receivers Jacob Cowing and Ryan Flournoy.

Using the horizontal board to project the Seahawks

First and foremost, the burning question I think for this draft is what is the situation with Abe Lucas? If, internally, they don’t think he can come back — that creates a huge problem at right tackle. With this being a particularly excellent first round at right tackle, it could tempt the Seahawks to stick and pick for the position, or initiate a modest trade down where they can still address the situation.

I still believe if Taliese Fuaga or Troy Fautanu are available at #16, there’s a strong chance the Seahawks won’t move down. Fautanu’s knee situation might change things. Both players could fit in at right tackle easily. Both can also play inside if needed. They are ideal picks based on talent, need, playing style and scheme fit.

Before the Fautanu injury news I thought they’d both be off the board before #16. Now, we’ll see.

If neither player is an option and they still want to take a right tackle, keep an eye on Amarius Mims. He is unbelievably talented. Most players who are 340lbs are sluggish and play with heavy feet, or they struggle to manage their weight. Mims has barely any body fat and looks like he was created in an offensive line factory.

A year ago the Seahawks had no problem drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the fact he missed almost the entire 2022 college season. They thought he had so much talent, it was a value opportunity. Had he played, with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, he might’ve been a top-10 pick. It’s similar with Mims. It’s well advertised he only had eight starts in college (more a review of how talented Georgia’s O-line has been than any reflection on him) but if he’d played a full two-seasons, he could’ve also been a top-10 pick.

The Seahawks will almost certainly entertain offers to trade down. Partly, I think that’ll be because they’ll have their eye on specific players in round two they want to get to (such as, potentially, a quarterback). There’s also a value opportunity here. There are so many offensive players expected to go early, due to the options and team needs. There’s a very realistic chance that a group of 4-5 defenders — who in other years would’ve been top-15 picks — are going to still be on the board between picks #20-25.

If Seattle was able to make a deal with Philadelphia at #22, for example, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that at least one of the top-four edge rushers will be available. The other name I continue to think they might show interest in is Darius Robinson. Alternatively, Graham Barton could also be available in this range.

I have 17 interior offensive linemen I think deserve to go in rounds 3-4. I anticipate some of them will last into round five, if not later. Therefore, I’m not too concerned about Seattle’s ability to add talent at guard.

This is how the Ravens have operated for years — and people seem content to mimic their approach. They just let a veteran right guard and right tackle walk and they’ll likely be replaced by former third and fourth round picks with size and aggression. John Simpson, who started at left guard before joining the Jets, was a former fourth round pick. The big difference is they used a first rounder on Tyler Linderbaum at center — but I think the Seahawks would’ve strongly considered taking him in 2022 given the opportunity.

Having watched Michigan’s O-line dominate for the last three years, I wouldn’t be totally against drafting Trevor Keegan and Zak Zinter, putting them with Olu Oluwatimi again and just rolling with what worked for the Wolverines. It’s not flashy — but they beat everyone up in college. A lot of people think Keegan and Zinter will both be day three picks.

I think the board will produce enough value to wait on the safety position until rounds 3/4. I think they’re better off adding depth at linebacker later on with style preferences, due to the limited options at the position. I think they can wait until rounds 3-5 to add a defensive tackle. I would draft a receiver at some point but I think the depth is sufficiently excellent that I’m prepared to wait for someone like Ryan Flournoy.

What does an ideal Seahawks draft look like?

This is only my opinion and you may disagree. But I think an ideal draft is one that makes the Seahawks significantly tougher up front, on both sides of the ball, and finds a way to add a talented young quarterback.

I’m not interested in more high picks at safety, cornerback and receiver while this team is having its arse handed to it in the trenches by an average Pittsburgh team, led by Mason Rudolph, at Lumen Field.

It’s absolutely imperative they become physically better up front. That doesn’t mean they have to spend their top pick on a beast of an O-liner just because it’s the most pressing need. As I’ve explained already, there are good linemen set to be available later on. However, I do want to see within the totality of this class a really clear plan to get better in the trenches.

I also think the Sam Howell trade, which was only a swap of picks at the end of the day, doesn’t preclude the Seahawks from drafting a quarterback. It’s no different than the Seahawks signing two linebackers, two safeties, Laken Tomlinson, George Fant, Johnathan Hankins or Pharoah Brown. They’ve filled holes to make sure they can do whatever they want in this draft, not be dictated by need. They couldn’t go into the draft with one quarterback on the roster.

Plus, Howell’s cap-hit is $985,000 this year and $1.1m next year. Compare that to the veteran backups signed this off-season. Joe Flacco is costing the Colts a $5m cap hit. Carson Wentz is costing the Chiefs $2.7m. The swap of picks, to get such a cheap backup contract, is justifiable.

Howell was a draft hedge. If there’s someone in this class that they really like at quarterback, they can still take him. And they should. It’s time to take shots. That could be Michael Penix Jr in round one. It could be Spencer Rattler in round two. Or it could be Michael Pratt in rounds 3/4. I wouldn’t even rule out Bo Nix. But I think they will draft a quarterback and I think it’s critical that they start to. They need to look around for the long-term solution, not wait for the holy grail to fall into their laps one year.

Again, John Schneider was the Director of Football Operations in Green Bay when the Packers selected Brian Brohm in round two — despite having Brett Favre and recent first rounder Aaron Rodgers on the roster. That’s what you call taking shots to find the answer — and the Packers continued that tradition when they drafted Jordan Love despite having Rodgers in his prime.

I believe the Seahawks are now going to adopt that mentality and we’ll see one of these young QB’s drafted by Seattle.

To recap — I think an ideal draft includes at least one pick on each side of the lines, ideally two. It includes a quarterback. I would also look to draft at safety in round four, I’d want to add a tight end at some point and a receiver. If you can move down to acquire extra stock, a later round pick at linebacker would be desirable. I would be open to trading Dre’Mont Jones during the draft, saving $4.8m in cap space, to get extra stock if needs be.

My prediction for #16 with 48 hours to go

Troy Fautanu (knee permitting) and Taliese Fuaga could tempt the Seahawks to stick at #16. Byron Murphy likewise, with Michael Penix Jr and Amarius Mims potential wildcards. Otherwise, the Seahawks will find a trade partner. Once they move down, it brings the edge rushers into play — and I think my particular focus will be on Chop and Darius Robinson. They are two players with extremely different characteristics but they have difference making, unique qualities. Graham Barton could also be considered — but more mid-rounders for the interior O-line could be the order of the day. They will draft a quarterback at some point.

Planning ahead

Tomorrow I will publish my final mock draft to be sent for Huddle Report scoring. I’ve written it, so we’ll see how many changes I make between now and tomorrow. Health depending, we will also do a live stream tomorrow at approximately 3pm PT. Then on Thursday, we’ll have a live blog operating throughout the first round. I’ll be appearing on PuckSports’ draft special for 20-25 minutes at the start of round one too. At the end of each of the three days of the draft, we will do an instant reaction live stream. I’ll also be posting my own instant reaction to the YouTube channel when each pick comes in. So be sure to stick with SDB throughout.

If you want to support the blog as we come to the end of another draft cycle, you can do so via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen…

With the main period of Free Agency winding down and the draft looming, it’s a good time to talk about where the Seahawks stand in relation to the salary cap.  There are decisions the team will have to make soon that will have an impact next season.

How they play this will be interesting.  It will give us insight into how close to truly competing the management thinks they are.

Where the Seahawks Currently Stand

They currently are just under the cap but the signing of Laken Tomlinson, adding their draft class and practice squad players will require the Seahawks to make some moves to create more cap room:

The Seahawks need to find about $11.5 million in cap space between now and the start of the season.

For reference, I added the most viable cap gain options underneath and added the 2024 cap benefits (including the Top-51 effect) and the impact on the 2025 salary cap.

As you see, the three Restricted Free Agents have very little guaranteed money on their numbers for 2024.  However, their cap numbers will likely pale in comparison to their output.  Darrell Taylor may not be anyone’s idea of a top Defensive End at this stage of his career, but 21 sacks in 3 seasons is easy to like for a cap hit of $3.1 million.  Same for Mike Jackson.  He has started at corner and at times been their best outside player last year.  A bet of $3.1 million to see what he can do in Macdonald’s defense is not hard to justify at all.

The simplest options for this year are the restructures of Smith and Metcalf.  They pick up almost the exact amount the team requires to operate and there is no impact on the current roster, as it is simply a bookkeeping move.

However, look at the 2025 impact.  If the team made those two moves, it adds that exact amount to the 2025 cap.  While that is workable, spending next year’s money might put limitations on their decision-making process come the next offseason.

The same limitations Seahawks are experiencing this year because of 2023’s offseason moves.

At this time last year, the team was in nearly the exact same cap shape as they are now:  tight against the cap and needing remedies to create more space.

They chose to restructure Tyler Lockett in May, Quandre Diggs in July and Jamal Adams in August (as well as extending Uchenna Nwosu in July).  Those three restructures gained them about $18.4 million in cap room but also pushed significant money into future seasons. As an aside, this was ‘just to pay the bills’ money.  The team needed to pay the Giants significant trade compensation to get them to eat about $10 million of Leonard Williams’ contract when they traded for him last fall.

About $12 million of that 2023 money is now dead 2024 money due to the Seahawks releasing Diggs and Adams.  Tyler Lockett agreed to a salary reduction with incentives going forward but the $5.69 million of room they gained last year is guaranteed, so there is no getting around that cap hit.

You see the irony.  That $12 million of dead cap for Adams and Diggs is the exact amount they are short in cap this season.  Therefore, when we talk about the options to gain cap this year and restructuring Metcalf and Smith is raised as the easiest option, just remember – the team is not freeing themselves of that obligation, they are just kicking it down the road.

Which is fine.  But it does force another ‘tough decisions and piling up more dead cap money’ situation in 2025.

Why?  The team is not flush with cap next year at the outset.

A Very Early Cap Outlook for 2025

At this moment in time, Over the Cap has the Seahawks with cap room of just under $3 million for 2025.  That is not good.  However, we can project things to get an idea of what it will truly look like before any major moves are made.  This will provide clarity to see the big picture of what the Seahawks may want to do – or avoid doing – the rest of the way this offseason.

From the top:

-OTC’s $2.99 million starting number is based on a $260 million cap in 2025.  They have yet to consider the large 2024 increase up to $255.4 million.  Revenues are going to provide robust growth, and a typical increase would put them at about $275 million, so the Seahawks get $15 million more breathing room.

-And then that breathing room gets eaten immediately.  The beginning number does not include the draft class the Seahawks will add in a few days.

-Four later-round players have been playing significant snaps for the Seahawks and will get a salary raise in the fourth year of their contracts courtesy of Player Performance Escalators baked into the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

-That leaves the team over the cap by $3.3 million with 40 players, and when you add another 11 players at minimum salaries to get to the top 51, they are now over by $13.8 million.

-Add in your standard draft class, practice squad and injury piggy bank and the Seahawks will need to create almost $28 million of cap room in the 2025 offseason to stay cap compliant.  That’s before they go shopping in the market.

You see the dilemma here.  If the Seahawks push cap money into 2025 just to pay the bills in 2024, there is no soft landing they would like to have waiting for them the following offseason.  They will just have to cut deeper into the roster, collect more dead money and once again have their future plans restricted a bit.

Have a look at what the most obvious options are for the Seahawks:

Smith and Lockett have roster bonuses that will require quick action by the team.

Dre Jones seems an obvious target at this point after an underwhelming 2023 season.

Those three moves pick up $58.5 million of cap room and give the team $30.6 million free and clear to work with.  But that means the Seahawks will need to have another big dead cap money season in 2025, absorbing $34 million in charges.

However, if the team restructures Smith & Metcalf this offseason, that borrows almost $12 million from their free cap (and would add another $5.8 million to the dead cap pile if they cut Smith, making it almost $40 million), leaving them with just under $19 million to spend.

Another option to gain 2025 room is to extend Smith and pick up about $19 million.  To do that though, you are talking about locking him up for his age 36-37-38 years with good money to get cap space this year.  If he produces another season like 2023, that will not be a viable option.

So, What Does This Mean for 2024?

The obvious answer is the Seahawks need to determine what to do with Dre Jones this offseason.  They will need to know sooner rather than later how he fits into this defense and if he will be able to provide the value they are paying on the cap for him, as well as determine if there is a trade market for him.

If I had to guess, the Seahawks will restructure D.K. Metcalf shortly after the draft to pay for their draft class, like they did with Tyler Lockett last year.  This move is something that is not hard to get behind.  Metcalf is a player you want on the roster beyond 2025 and in that light, this is just moving money around.  Restructuring a young, star-level player with several productive years in front of him is far less punitive than an older veteran who you are wondering if he will be with the team next year.

Speaking of Tyler Lockett, cutting him (or him retiring) next year leaves a hole on the roster.  Yes, the Seahawks would go into 2025 with Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Noah Fant on the roster as great targets.

If there is a Wide Receiver that falls in the draft this year (conceivable, given how deep a class it is), the 2025 cap and roster construction could easily sway them to make that pick, given the value they would receive.

Dre Jones?  With his cap cost, there is a good argument to be made for cutting or trading him after investing a pick in his spot on the defensive line this year.  Starting over there and pairing a draft pick with Leonard Williams and all the edges they have collected is very persuasive and could positively impact the rest of the defense.

Then we get back to Geno Smith.  $25 million in cap savings next year is a juicy target that is easy to bank right now.  But what of the actual season of 2025?  The Seahawks would go into the offseason with only Sam Howell on the roster.  Is that enough?  Do the Seahawks desire to plan for the position in 2025 before they see how Smith and Howell perform in the new offense?

And will that all take a backseat to the team having a quarterback they rate available in this year’s draft?

One way or another, the Seahawks will need to make some very big choices.  If they truly do feel Geno Smith and/or Sam Howell can be effective enough to take a Macdonald-coached team deep into the playoffs, a bold draft that selects talent that could help them quickly, perhaps followed up with a ‘damn the torpedoes’ move or two this fall or next spring would be in order – such as a bold trade for say Micah Parsons or Tee Higgins at the expense of 2025 draft capital.  A two-year run at a championship with all chips thrown to the center of the table might be a sight to behold.

And if they do not believe they are ready to make some noise next year, would drafting a quarterback this year become more a necessity than just an option to consider?  It is possible that a shrewd trade down followed by a trading up for say Michael Penix Jr or Spencer Rattler could be viewed in 2025 as the Move of the Offseason, positioning the Seahawks with several young talents who can form the core of a team that will compete for years.

Which will it be?

Hard to say.  And that is why John Schneider makes the big bucks.

One thing we do know – the draft picks and moves they make on the salary cap this offseason may very well signal how close he thinks this team is to competing.