Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 13 of 13)

First round Senior quarterbacks bust at a significantly lower rate than first round Juniors. So why is it that most great prospects declare early? Because of possibilities like Locker's 2010 season.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

Foreword: If anyone believes they are unbiased, then you can assume that they are either delusional fools or petty narcissists.  I try my best to be upfront about my biases and give a good effort to work around them, but they will always exist and play a role in my thinking, and sometimes I’m not even aware of it.  So I have to be up front when I saw that I am a diehard Washington Huskies fan, and have been since 1990, just slightly before I became a Seahawks fan.  As such, its probably impossible for me to give you an 100% unbiased view of Jake Locker, so instead I will try my hardest to give you 99%.

If you follow the Huskies, then you probably remember that just the mere news of Jake Locker committing to Washington was earth-shattering.  After all, Locker was considered by some to be a top 10 quarterback prospect nationally and a guy who grew up about a 90 minute drive north of Seattle.    When Locker made this commitment, Washington was fresh off a 2-9 record, and a 1-10 record prior to that.  The Huskies had been one of the worst BCS eligible teams in the nation for several years by this point, and Locker was seen as a messianic figure to many of the Huskies faithful.  Everyone knows that great teams begin with great quarterbacks.  It was guys like Sonny Sixkiller and Warren Moon that put Washington on the map to begin with.  Warren Moon won games by himself, and with winning comes better recruiting, and a team could get back on its feet in a competition where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Coming out of high school, Locker dominated leading his team to a 14-0 state title winning season.  During that year he passed for 1603 yards and 25 touchdowns, while also rushing for 1329 yards and 24 touchdowns.  It was a season like one Ladainian Tomlinson would enjoy, if Tomlinson just threw the ball a little more.  After Redshirting in 2006, Locker made his college debut by crushing Syracuse 42-12 on the road.  Syracuse was hardly a powerhouse, but they weren’t Portland State either.  Beating a “real” team in a blowout road win, largely thanks to 83 rushing yards and two touchdowns from the quarterback position, set the tone for a season in which Locker nearly rushed for 1000 yards, which was a school rookie record (later broken by Chris Polk).  Locker led the Huskies to a convincing 24-10 win over Boise State the next week- and like a manager who sticks with the hot hand, Tyrone Willingham wasn’t in the biggest rush to develop Locker when just a raw athlete playing his game was winning and winning big.

That short-term mindset came to roost the next season, when Locker started battling injuries due to running too much and too physically, including a broken thumb that shelved him for the entire 2nd half of the year in Washington’s infamous and historic 0-11 season.  Admittedly, the Huskies played a brutal schedule and couldn’t catch a break (“unsportsmanlike” celebration against BYU anyone?), but excuses aside, the Huskies were a wretched team and even a struggling Jake Locker was clearly the best player they had.

When you hear people talk about how Locker is really a sophomore quarterback and not a senior, this is what they mean.  Locker may have been a 5th year senior last year, but he only played two years within Sarkisian’s system, and just a year and a half before that for a coach that didn’t want to mess with a successful but unrefined quarterback.  So while I dislike using the word “raw” in regards to Jake Locker, he’s still relatively new to the system we now judge him by, and further improvement in some areas of concern is reasonable to hope for.

Strengths:

• Elite athleticism and bulk for the position
• Excellent acceleration and top speed
• Good ball security when running
• Instinctive runner
• Runs like a fullback, can power through tackles when he takes off
• Outstanding execution on designed runs
• Sells play action very well
• Disciplined: willing to throw the ball away to avoid negative plays
• Good throwing mechanics, ball comes out at 3/4 at worst
• Quick release
• A natural when running bootlegs
• Over 70% completion rate outside the pocket
• Elite level talent rolling to his left
• Good evade and juke outside the pocket
• Surprisingly good deep accuracy and touch
• Very good arm strength
• Smooth, quick drop back.
• Very strong work ethic
• Natural leader, fiery competitor
• Has strong character
• Not easily discouraged or demoralized, battles through every snap
• Has a few truly dominant games each year
• Occasionally makes “wow” plays, can fill a highlight reel
• Good in a 2 minute offense, strong in the 4th quarter and overtime
• Played in a pro-style offense
• Makes pre-snap reads and audibles
• Completion rate is better than it looks, he suffered about 3 drops a game
• Supporting cast was more bad than good, played college football’s toughest schedule in 2010

Weaknesses:

• An alarmingly high number of injuries
• Hardly ever shies away from contact
• A completely different quarterback when playing hurt or without mobility
• His speed won’t have quite the same impact at the next level
• Erratic ball placement when passing in the pocket
• Alarmingly low completion rate from within the pocket
• Surprisingly bad pocket awareness and evasiveness in the pocket
• Unnatural footwork except when on the run
• Highly inconsistent game to game
• More mediocre performances than great ones
• Rarely checks his 2nd read
• Occasionally locks on to his receivers
• Trusts his arm too much sometimes and throws into small windows
• “Mechanical” quarterback who executes plays instead of creating them
• Is probably near his ceiling mentally
• Benefited from a pretty good running game
• Rest of the team bailed him out at the end of 2010

Conclusion:

If every  GM was like Peter King and only watched highlight videos to form opinions on prospects, Jake Locker would be in strong consideration to go #1 overall.  I mean that somewhat as a compliment- his flaws take some digging to find but his talent and play-making ability is plainly evident.  Taken on the whole, Jake Locker is like a 3rd round prospect with moments where he looks like a guy who’d go top 5.  If you only saw Locker play one game last year, and that game was USC or Oregon State, you’d wonder how he wasn’t a top 10 lock.  Or, if you saw him play Nebraska or UCLA, you’d wonder why anyone would draft him as a quarterback at all.

In fairness, I don’t really blame Locker for the Nebraska game, his receivers were draped in coverage and out of 20 pass attempts he had a wide open receiver to throw to just once.  Perhaps Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Mallett would experience better results in a similar predicament, but neither of those quarterbacks had to deal with the talent discrepancy Locker did in games like Nebraska or Stanford so its impossible to know.  In the college game, there is a bigger gulf that separates the best from the worst compared to the NFL, so I’m not really worried about Locker facing another Nebraska situation again.  Corners will be better, but at least he’ll have NFL caliber receivers to throw to avoid facing a situation like that again.

Locker is a safe quarterback who avoids mistakes most of the time.  I respect a quarterback who throws the ball away and takes an incompletion over a sack or interception, though this is something Locker had to do a lot in 2010.  Whereas Mallett hardly ever threw the ball away because he always found a good target, Locker often makes just one or two reads to one side of the field, if he doesn’t find anything, he either tucks and runs or throws the ball away.  That’s disappointingly limited, and though I can’t say for sure, I suspect he’ll probably never become the kind of guy who checks three or four reads with regularity.  Just a hunch based on the fact that he didn’t seem to grow in this regard over the last two years.    Of course, you don’t have to scan the whole field with regularity to be a good quarterback, and in fact most NFL quarterbacks don’t, including (from my own observation), Matt Hasselbeck even in his prime.  Still, it would be nice if Locker was better at finding open wide recievers, because he throws the ball away quite a lot and by his own admission its one of the biggest contributors to his low completion rate.

Speaking of completion rate, can Locker be a 60% passer in the NFL?  I believe he can, but only in an offense that moves him out of the pocket as much as possible so that his stellar mobile accuracy can help compensate for his weak pocket accuracy.  All the talk about fixing Locker’s “shortstop” stride is neat and all, but its just impossible to tell if it will make any real difference.  Some believe it will, and that’s why Locker is being talked about as an early to mid 1st rounder right now.

My two biggest worries with Locker are his mental cieling and his health history.  If you watch Locker play closely, you will notice that every motion he makes looks choreographed.  I give Locker points for good execution, but I think its clear by now that if he was an artist, he’d be limited to tracing over someone else’s image rather than sketch his own.  As said before, he’s still relatively new to a pro-style offense and so its not completely unreasonable to hold out hope that with time he’ll become more natural in the pocket, but to me he looks like a trained animal out there when he isn’t rolling out- and I suspect that what you see is what you’ll get in this regard.

In terms of injuries, Locker does not shy from contact and this led to plenty of “ding-up” injuries like concussions, broken fingers, strained hamstrings, and so forth.  Locker may be built like a fullback, but he’s still human.  I think Locker is probably going to have a solid career if he’s picked by the right team, but unless he learns to avoid contact, he’s going to flat out suck, because when he’s hurt he isn’t mobile, and when he isn’t mobile, he isn’t the least bit accurate or effective.  One of the reasons Locker’s stats look so bad over his career is because he played with at least a minor injury in the vast majority of his games.

Still, its important to remember why we’re even talking about Locker as a 1st rounder at all.  Lets not forget that this is a guy who can turn a botched snap and broken play into a 15 yard touchdown run, as he once did against Arizona.  Cam Newton aside, Locker is the ultimate playmaker quarterback in this draft, making big plays with both his arm and his legs.  While I don’t expect Locker to be putting up huge rushing totals in the pros, he’s as fast as Dexter McCluster, and McCluster had a 94 yard punt return last year.  So I fully expect the homerun ability to remain at least somewhat intact when he takes off.

NFL comparison: Vince Young

People seem to have forgotten, but Michael Vick was once a “failed” quarterback.  As it turns out, Vick just needed to go to the right team and play in the right system to reach his amazing potential.  Right now, Vince Young is in a very similar career cross-roads where it seems everyone has given up on him and become disenchanted with his obvious physical talent.  Maybe Vince Young will get traded to the right team and save his career the same way Vick did, or maybe he won’t and he’ll go down as one of the bigger draft busts of the last decade.  Vick and Young are alike in the sense that even when they struggled, they still won more games than they lost, because stats like passer rating don’t account those 16 yard runs on 3rd and 8 in the 4th quarter.  Locker didn’t have a winning record thanks to a team around him that, aside from Chris Polk, was mostly terrible, but I think on a typical NFL team, Locker could be a kindred spirit to Vick/Young by posting sub-mediocre passing stats and still winning games.  And on the right team, a team that plays Locker to his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses, he could be a good quarterback with flashes of greatness.  He’s good enough to perhaps win a Superbowl in a magical type of season where he strings together several great performances at the right time, like Eli Manning did in 2007.

Is Seattle the right team?  Possibly, yes.  Locker would have been the perfect fit for Jeremy Bates who runs a ton of play action, roll outs, and deep passes, all major strengths for Locker.  We’ve been told to expect that Bevell does not mark a dramatic shift away from the kind of scheme Bates used, and if that’s true, then Locker would still be a great fit here.  I once worried that Locker would suffer from lofty hometown expectations given his legendary status at Washington, but it seems that in the last 8 months even the locals have really cooled on him and expectations would be tempered and moderate.

Josh Freeman is a popular and flattering comp for Locker, but its one I hesitate to make because Freeman’s biggest skill, his ability to move around and make things happen from within the pocket, is actually one of Locker’s bigger weaknesses.  Still, there is some truth in the comparison in that Freeman was a late riser who’s stock was initially low because of poor stats that were influenced by a weak supporting cast.  Its impossible to statistically isolate Locker from his supporting cast, but watching the tape, you can see plenty of times he’d get a better result with more help around him, and it makes you wonder.

Considering where those 4 teams are drafting, he's being either very optimistic or very pessimistic.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

As you might have guessed, Ryan Mallett was a man among boys as a kid and a heavily recruited quarterback coming out of high school.  This is why people were talking about Mallett a year and a half ago when he’d barely even played yet, and his on field performances had yet to be that impressive.  After a breakout 2010 campaign, you’d think that Mallett would be poised to be a top 10 pick, but rumors about being a “big man on campus” type as well as allegations of drug use have dogged Mallett through much of this offseason.  Many draft experts have written Mallett off, including Todd McShay who didn’t even include Mallett in his recent top 32 list.  You have to wonder though, how could teams overlook such a promising season by talking about Mallett so little?  Is it real, or is it a smokescreen?

In what is probably the most controversial quarterback class in recent memory, Mallett stands atop the heap in terms of dividing opinion.  Doug Farrar, who’s work I respect tremendously, has all but offered his soul to the devil in exchange for Seattle avoiding Mallett- comparing him to both Dan McGwire and Derek Anderson.  On the other side of the spectrum, our own Rob Staton has publicly pleaded that Seattle spend significant draft capital and trade UP to secure the Arkansas quarterback.

As always, I encourage our readership to form its own opinions and not simply take what we say as gospel.  We’re just ordinary fans exactly like you, and all we can offer is our own opinion.  If you are so inclined, you can scout Ryan Mallett for yourself by following this link, which provides full broadcasts of several SEC games.

I scouted Mallett for 4 games:  Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and UTEP.  All of those games were from 2010, but I don’t really feel like I need to see 2009 games to be honest.  Mallett has developed so much that it makes his first season borderline irrelevant.

Strengths:

• Big, tall, tough, durable (only one notable injury, a concussion)
• Ridiculously strong arm/upper body
• Excellent short accuracy and completion rate, above average deep accuracy
• Deep passes get downfield in a hurry, his deep throws have the same low trajectory that most QBs have on 15 yard passes
• Student of the game/Coach on the field
• Almost always checks multiple reads
• Good, consistent release point with impressive arm speed
• Decent pocket awareness
• Comfortable in the pocket
• Quick decision maker, doesn’t hold the ball or take coverage sacks very often
• Makes decisions that are mostly good
• Almost always finds a target- very few throwaways
• Good performances against very highly ranked opponents
• Excellent overall production in an elite conference
• Good under pressure if he stays in the pocket, can sidestep and keeps his eyes downfield
• Very competitive, for better or worse has a few “Favre moments” every game
• Just isn’t hit very much, figures to stay healthy
• Makes a good effort selling play action
• Makes big plays with impressive regularity
• Pro-style offense
• Has probably the best chance of any quarterback to be good right away

Weaknesses:

• Rumors of drug use and generally less than chivalrous behavior off the field
• Might be too tall.  The history of 6’7″ quarterbacks is brutal
• Very nonathletic due to his size
• Long strider who not only conspicuously lacks speed and explosiveness, but it even fouls up his mechanics sometimes
• Attempts some throws that Mike Holmgren would crucify him for
• Big, awkward windup- very similar in appearance to that of Eli Manning.  Could lead to many sack-fumbles
• Struggles outside the pocket, clueless about setting his feet when rolling left
• Almost never ran bootlegs
• A very awkward fit for Pete Carroll’s offense
• Throws more picks going deep than you’d like
• Benefited from good protection, an outstanding running game, and a solid defense
• Some lateral accuracy issues on deep passes, too often he’ll throw behind a receiver when going deep

Conclusion:

In every game I watched, Ryan Mallett was clearly the best and most critical player on a very good football team, with only RB Knile Davis coming even close to making an argument.  There were moments in 2010 where the lowly Washington Huskies were able overcome a shaky start by Jake Locker to taste victory, but that didn’t happen in any of the games I saw when scouting Mallett.  Arkansas is a good enough team to win with its running game and defense, but they wouldn’t have competed with the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Auburn without Mallett.  Even when Mallett’s backup came in for the 2nd half against Auburn and performed well on paper, you could just sense “that’s the game” the moment Mallett left.  Mallett scares the bejesus out of teams with his deep threat, and can score in a hurry.  It only took him 3 plays to score against Georgia at the start and only 2 plays to score against #1 Alabama to open the game.  That’s the kind of offensive firepower Mallett brings to the table, and it hints at MVP level potential in the NFL.

Let me show you what I’m talking about.  The first game I put on was against LSU.  You can find the game from the link above if you’d like.  Mallett sealed that game on a long TD pass on 4th and 3 that would make Jeremy Bates proud (117 min mark).  As halftime neared and LSU held the ball, I skipped ahead to the 3rd quarter and suddenly Arkansas had 1 more touchdown than they had with seconds left in the 2nd quarter.  Puzzled, I backtracked to the final 3 seconds of the 2nd quarter and witnessed this:

LSU almost ran out the clock before halftime, but had to punt the ball back to Arkansas with a meager 3 seconds remaining.  How many college coaches even try a pass at their own 20 yard line with 3 seconds left before halftime?  How many quarterbacks would make such an attempt even worth trying?

Of course, it wouldn’t have been a touchdown if not for the two defensive backs colliding, but it also probably wouldn’t have been a touchdown if not for perfect placement allowing the ball to be caught in stride.  Mallett does occasionally throw behind his receivers when going deep, but more often than not, his ball placement was exceptionally good.

As far as the negatives go, I have three main concerns with Mallett:

The first is how his lack of mobility and effectiveness outside the pocket could impact his fit in Seattle.  If the team decides to invest in Mallett, then its pretty much time to find a new offense.  When rolling left, Mallett has to completely stop, twist his body back, and set his feet very awkwardly before passing.  The whole thing looks like a solitary version of Twister.  Unsurprisingly, the throws he makes when doing that are horrible and dangerous.  Seattle’s current offense requires a quarterback to be a threat to scramble for extra yards and first downs, and that is something Mallett can only do in rare circumstances, because he doesn’t get very far.  You don’t want to see Mallett taking off on 3rd and 8.  Also, when Mallett leaves the pocket he loses… well.. the pocket, meaning that he’s fair game for any free defender that wants to chase him down, and Mallett’s speed won’t buy you as much time outside the pocket as we’ve been accustomed to even from an aging quarterback like Hasselbeck.  For Mallett to succeed, he needs to stay in the pocket as much as possible.

On a side-tangent, Mallett has a clunky long stride to his movement that sometimes interferes with his mechanics.  As mentioned before, it really shows itself when rolling left, but it can happen any time he’s throwing on the move.  The game sealing interception against Alabama wasn’t a poor decision- Mallett was trying to throw the ball away.  But because he was on the move and off balance, he didn’t set his feet correctly, and the ball didn’t leave with as much force as he’d like, allowing the Alabama defender to snag the interception right at the sideline.

The second concern is Mallett’s inconsistent deep accuracy.  This one is forgivable, as you don’t really expect quarterbacks to nail every deep pass as the farther you throw a ball, the more difficult it is to be pin-point accurate.  Mallett was mostly accurate going deep, and he’s outstanding at judging distance, almost never overthrowing or coming up short.  But in terms of lateral judgment, sometimes he’s off, and this frequently resulted in picks from the games I saw.  Its not a fatal flaw or anything, it just shows that Mallett is human and a deep passing attack carries risk.  I think like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler, Mallett will run higher than average interception numbers as part of the trade off for good overall production.

The 3rd concern I have for Mallett is some occasional lapses in decision making.  He only throws the ball away rarely, which while commendable, also leads him to forcing 2-3 throws a game he really shouldn’t.  Some of which he pays for, and some he gets lucky.  Still, they are throws that veteran quarterbacks not named Brett Favre avoid and for good reason.  This problem is coachable, and hopefully Mallett can learn that sometimes taking a sack or throwing the ball away a couple extra times a game isn’t so bad.

I guess a 4th concern for Mallett would be the character issues, but I simply haven’t heard anything yet that is concrete enough to judge Mallett on.  No failed drug tests.  No criminal record.  No solid evidence of almost anything.  Do I personally think Mallett did drugs in the past?  Given the way he’s handled it, probably, but it does appear to be something in his past and I think he’s handled this offseason wisely in regards to addressing that issue.  For anybody who says “but he’s the face of the franchise!”, I simply stop and point to Michael Vick.

Regarding mobility, Mallett isn’t a statue in the pocket and can avoid pressure within reason.  He is vulnerable to the blitz however, as you might have expected due to his lack of speed.  Thankfully, Mallett has a good ability to make quick decisions under reasonably comfortable circumstances.  He diagnoses coverage very quickly and with Peyton Manning like efficiency tends to get the ball out in 3 seconds or less most of the time.   He doesn’t hold the ball long and even when pressured usually has a plan for where he wants the ball to go.

Mechanically speaking, it would be nice to see Mallett put more of his legs and body into his throws.  I’m pretty sure Mallett could throw 60 yards on his knees, but that doesn’t mean he should do it on every pass.

Finally, it should be noted that while Jake Locker played in a pro-style offense, Mallett ran a pro-style offense, and that’s a very significant distinction especially for a team that is hoping for a quarterback to contribute as soon as possible.

NFL comparison: Kurt Warner

While Mallett falls far short of Warner in the living like Ned Flanders department, both are quarterbacks with limited mobility, great on the field intelligence, great deep balls, and an ability to pass for over 300 yards with regularity.  Warner of course won multiple MVP awards, and Mallett has that same potential if he pans out.  Of course, Kurt Warner himself wasn’t exactly a first round pick, and it remains to be seen how NFL franchises will weigh Mallett’s strengths against his faults.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

I just finished scouting my 3rd game (out of 4) for Mallett, and I’ve already got a ton of notes.  I’m hoping to have it done and posted by tonight.  As I found last year from my work scouting Russell Okung, watching tape for one player will often help you inadvertently learn a lot about other players as well.  In order to keep my Mallett scouting report on topic, I’d like to put my random comments on some other players I saw here, before I talk about Mallett himself.

• I’m sure some of you won’t like reading this, but if Seattle shocked us all by drafting Mark Ingram at #25, I wouldn’t feel the slightest bit upset or really even that surprised.  Ingram’s acceleration is deceptive but excellent, and his vision/instincts are on par with Shaun Alexander’s, which is saying a lot.   And like Shaun, Ingram’s field speed is faster than it looks.  Everyone would say Shaun wasn’t a burner and then he’d torch a team for an 80 yard scamper.  Alexander and Ingram posted nearly identical 40 times coming out of college.   I like Lynch, but he’s regularly one of the worst RB in the league at yards before contact, and since Seattle’s line is in complete shambles right now outside of Okung and possibly Spencer should he return, there really isn’t a lot of reason to expect Lynch to not repeat his awful 2010 regular season performance, which was one of the worst in the league per DVOA.  Not because Lynch sucks, but because he’s a guy that needs good blocking to gain momentum and do what he does best, run over defenders.  Drafting one very very good running back with better elusiveness would be a faster route to fixing the run game than acquiring 3-4 new lineman, and as such, it makes a great value pick like Ingram surprisingly sensible.

• I don’t know why, but Greg McElroy kind of reminds me of a less mobile Jeff Garcia.  Similar size/build, similar moxie.  Depending on who you ask though, that’s not really saying much.  Garcia had an up and down career and was generally under-valued even when he was very good.

• I think I’d rather take Drake Nevis at #57 than Liuget at #25.  I’m not a particularly huge fan of either, but Nevis is pretty close to Liuget in my eyes and is a far better value late in the 2nd.

• If Cam Newton learns how to properly use and set his feet in the pocket, he will fully justify being picked #1 overall.  Newton isn’t polished, but he’s only been in division football for just one year.  Its hard not to bank on Newton improving, and if he does, he will someday become one of the most feared players in the NFL.

• Trevor Vittatoe probably won’t be drafted, but I think he’s worth a look as an undrafted free agent.  While he’s nowhere near the physical specimen of Locker or Kaepernick, he’s got the same mobility QB skillset, and unlike those guys, he actually is well trained at checking multiple reads.  His upside isn’t that great, but he has a high floor relative to his draft stock and  I think he could be a better backup than Charlie Whitehurst.  If Vittatoe adds another 10-15 lbs, he would compare very closely to David Garrard.

• Arkansas has a heck of a running game, and that is thanks mostly to a great system implemented by Bobby Petrino.  It makes me wonder if RB Knile Davis is just a product of the system or not, because in every game I watched, he was sensational.

Quite the contrast

Posted by Kip Earlywine

There have been so many rumors about Seattle and the quarterback position.  There’s been enough rumors on Palmer and Kolb alone to outpace the circus we put up with for Brandon Marshall last year.

I won’t lie, its a little hard to make sense of it all sometimes.  So when things seem the most confusing, its probably best just to revert to the basic facts.   Matthew Hasselbeck and John Schneider were miles apart in their final negotiation, so Hasselbeck has probably taken his last snap in a Seahawks uniform.  Charlie Whitehurst only played in emergency circumstances last year and did not earn a starting job for 2011.  He’s a free agent (and 30 years old) in 2012.  As such, Seattle needs a quarterback, and has by no means even attempted to hide this fact.  Every coach wants to “win now”, but this is especially true for Carroll.  This, coupled with Seattle’s low draft capital, makes the thought of pursuing Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer a very logical notion.

And yet, even on the heels of some very encouraging rumors I’ve heard on the trade-for-a-veteran front, its hard to see Seattle not drafting a quarterback in 2011.  Even if Seattle acquired a trustworthy veteran like Carson Palmer, they’d still need another quarterback in another 4 years at the latest.  You could draft a “project” quarterback with high potential hoping he’d be ready in 2014 or 2015, similar to when Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre still playing with gas left in the tank.  Teams usually carry 3 quarterbacks, and there isn’t a single guy currently on the roster who I’d say is “likely” to still be here this time next year.

The draft isn’t very far away, but I thought I’d take a long look at the potential options.  Unfortunately, there is less video available this year compared to last, at least not without finding a new IP and pirating from a torrent site; something I’d really prefer to avoid.  However, there is a nice supply of freely available video on the quarterback class, so I feel pretty confident in giving quality evaluations in at least that area.

Here is my draft board, as of today, for the 2011 quarterback class.  Locker is the only QB I’ve already scouted, so don’t take this list too seriously, if anything its just where I’m starting from in this evaluation process:

#1:  Blaine Gabbert: Gabbert is the only quarterback in the entire draft to get a passing grade for all of the following: accuracy, ability to read a defense, mobility, character, “makes all the throws” arm, and mechanics.  He’s not a Matt Ryan “perfect prospect”, but he’s got what it takes in the areas that correlate to NFL stardom the most.  My only real concern, other than the 1 year wonder label,  is his lack of success on deep throws- so he might be more ideal in a short passing offense.  Grade:  Top 10 pick.

#2:  Cam Newton: Newton is a one of a kind prospect.  The closest comparisons would be Vick/Young, but Newton is bigger/less agile than Vick and figures to be a better passer than Young.  I’ve even read one comparison that called Newton (paraphrasing) “Big Ben with wheels.”  Newton has an obvious “diva” personality, but he wouldn’t be the first diva quarterback to experience NFL stardom.  Newton has some relatively small mechanical issues to work out and he needs to learn a pro style offense.  Boom or bust prospect with literally unheard of upside.  Grade:  Top 10 pick.

#3:  Ryan Mallett: I try to be upfront about my biases, and evaluating Mallett has really challenged my greatest bias with quarterbacks: mobility.  I love mobile quarterbacks, probably more than I should.  Its often forgotten that Mallett was only in his 2nd season of football with Petrino at Arkansas, and yet playing in the toughest division in college football, amassed some very good numbers and had some terrific performances.  Its not like his 5.37 speed prevented him from doing it either.  Mallett’s often talked about arm (which is one of the best arms of the last several years) is actually less important that his intelligence and accuracy on the field.  Mallett has the makings of a big time pocket passer and its hard for me to put him behind Newton.  Grade:  Top 15 pick.

#4:  Jake Locker: I’ve seen all but 2 of Jake Locker’s games since he signed with the University of Washington, so he’s the one guy I could write a book on right now.  I think the 2nd round grade he’s often given is fair, and I think both his potential and risk are over-stated.  To me he’s not a boom or bust prospect, but more of a safe bet with a modest ceiling.  His accuracy is far better than his completion rate shows (thanks to a ton of drops, mediocre pass pro and college football’s toughest schedule), and there is potential for improvement with his pass location if he continues to improve his footwork in the pocket.  The reason I see Locker as being closer to the “good version” of Jake Plummer rather than John Elway is because of the simple fact that Jake Locker is a “mechanical” quarterback who follows orders and executes plays but isn’t fluid or instinctive like the greats of the league always are.  In a very controlled atmosphere, like what Mike Shanahan runs, Locker could be a good quarterback with flashes of greatness, but probably not a great quarterback overall.  Still, a quality, dependable quarterback is a good value in the early 2nd round, and worth the price at #25.   Grade:  Late 1st/early 2nd.

#5:  Colin Kaepernick: An excellent athlete with potential that probably exceeds Locker’s despite being less gifted physically.    Kaepernick’s pocket presence is special and I can’t help but be reminded of Josh Freeman watching Kaepernick dodge bullets in there and buy extra time to make plays.  Kaepernick didn’t face great competition and didn’t play in a pro-style system.  He has mechanical issues that must be improved or fixed.  He has an elongated and funky throwing motion which is somewhat made up for by some very impressive arm speed (he was a star pitcher in high school).  However, on shorter passes Kaepernick slows his arm down a lot to add touch, and this results in a fatally slow overall release time.  So improvement is not optional here- he has to either learn how to throw short passes faster without losing accuracy or learn proper mechanics- and either one will take time.  Still, I really like Kaepernick as a long term “project” and he’d make a lot of sense backing up a veteran like Carson Palmer or whoever.  I’d gladly take him at #57 should he last that long.  Grade:  2nd round.

#6:  Christian Ponder: There is quite a lot to say about this young man, so it will be hard to condense it into a single paragraph.  First, the positive stuff.  Ponder had a good season statistically in 2009, and this time last year was thought to be a future 1st round prospect.  Ponder has a warm, funny, charming and friendly persona much like Matt Hasselbeck- so he’s the perfect type of guy to be a face of the franchise in that respect.  Ponder has decent accuracy, at least on paper.  But there are some very big reasons I’m not a fan of Ponder despite these positives.  First and foremost is Ponder’s tendency to lock onto receivers and telegraph plays- something we saw a lot of with Charlie Whitehurst last year and we know how that’s going for him.  I’m struggling to think of a single prolific quarterback who overcame this tendency.  From this alone, I’d scratch Ponder off my board until the later rounds.  But Ponder also has arm issues.  He’s had several arm injuries/surgeries in recent months and he was floating deep balls even before that.  This isn’t a perfect analogy, but Ponder is a lot like old Matt Hasselbeck if old Matt Hasselbeck locked onto receivers like Charlie Whitehurst does.  In a pure west coast system where deep throws are rarely made, Ponder could make sense in the mid rounds for a coach who believes that with time he can beat the concept of multiple reads into Ponder’s thick skull.  Ponder has recieved a lot of hype lately and according to some he has a shot to be a 1st rounder despite his actual talent.  Grade:  5th rounder.

#7:  Andy Dalton: On tape, Dalton looks like this year’s Graham Harrell- a great college quarterback who is just that and nothing more.  Still, I like taking chances on guys like these ultra late in the draft, as rarely they become Tony Romos and Matt Hasselbecks.  I still need to take a deeper look into this guy, but I think anyone who says Dalton is a first two rounds player is overlooking too much.  Grade:  6th rounder.

#8:  Ricky Stanzi: Stanzi is a hero in the eyes of the 26/27/60 rule, as were many hopelessly under-talented quarterbacks in previous years.  I’d be worried if my GM drafted quarterbacks based on things like games started and wonderlic scores.  That said, I think Stanzi is a very good investment in the late rounds if Seattle wants to go the late round route at quarterback while trading for a veteran starter later.  Stanzi is strikingly similar to Matt Hasselbeck circa 1997, but with a better arm.  Both have great intangibles and leadership, and a camera friendly persona (as well as similar political leanings).  Both are 6’4″.  Stanzi is 223 lbs; Hasselbeck 225.  Both had solid mobility despite NFL average speed.  Even the way Stanzi throws the football looks pretty similar.  And most similar of all (and this is why both will be late rounders), Stanzi like Hasselbeck has way too many brainfarts on the field.  Inconsistency and bouts of poor decision making is a big problem for Stanzi.  This is no knock on Hasselbeck, but would he have been a pro-bowl quarterback without Mike Holmgren’s guidance?  I really doubt it.  Similarly, I think it would probably take a quarterback guru on par with Holmgren to get similar results with Stanzi.  Grade:  6th rounder.

#9:  Mitch Mustain: Mustain was one of the most highly pursued quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  He initially played for Arkansas when Houston Nutt coached there, and after a flawed yet promising start in which Mustain put up mediocre stats but won all 8 games he played in, he transferred to USC to play for Pete Carroll.  Mustain wasn’t able to beat out top 5 pick Mark Sanchez nor likely future top 5 pick Matt Barkley for a job, but that shouldn’t be held against him.  Until very recently, USC was college football’s most talent rich team every year, placing capable NFL talents on the bench, as Matt Cassel can attest.  This isn’t to say that Mustain will be a repeat of Matt Cassel, but its not like the things that once made Mustain a top prospect have changed.  The biggest knock on Mustain is the unknown, but its a late round pick with relatively outstanding upside- and the head coach of the Seahawks would know better than anyone else if he’s a gamble worth taking.

Over the next several days, I’ll release full scouting reports for Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker, followed by less thorough player previews for Kaepernick, Ponder, Dalton, and Stanzi.  I’m going to avoid writing about Newton and Gabbert for now, because I think the odds of Seattle drafting either is exceedingly low, but if it happens, I’ll do a report as soon as I’m done partying like its 1999.  For the rest, be sure to stay tuned!

The only thing more remarkable than Gabbert's sudden rise to the top this offseason is how little he's been talked about while doing it.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

In 2010, Sam Bradford was selected #1 overall.  The next quarterback didn’t leave the board until Denver shocked the world 24 picks later with Tim Tebow.   The consensus #2 quarterback Jimmy Clausen?  He fell into the second half of round two.  In 2009, Stafford went 1st, Sanchez 5th, and Freeman 17th, all of whom were drafted pretty much exactly where draft experts expected them to and in the consensus order they were ranked.  In 2008, Matt Ryan went 3rd and Flacco 18th.   The year before that, Jamarcus Russell went #1, but the Oakland Raiders owned the top pick that year, and no one would argue with you if you thought Al Davis was insane.

I could keep doing this but I’ll stop there- the picture should be coming into focus at this point.  Generally speaking, the draft process is precise enough to order the quarterbacks into clear tiers of talent.  It wasn’t hard for teams to figure out that there was a gulf that separated Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, or Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.

This year is different.  Among anonymously interviewed NFL front offices, its basically split 50/50 as to who is the top QB between Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Auburn’s Cam Newton.  And among top draftniks Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock, they can’t even agree on that.  Both Mayock and McShay have Washington’s Jake Locker #2 behind Blaine Gabbert and ahead of Cam Newton.   So who’s the 3rd best QB?  Well depending on who you ask, its usually Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, but some teams have reportedly put Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick as high as 3rd on their QB board.  Mallett in particular is amazingly polarizing, being seen as a top 15 talent by some but ranked as low as the 7th best quarterback by others.  It goes without saying that as you look at the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th best quarterbacks, opinions become even more divided leaving a muddled and confusing mess.  More than a few prognosticators even have TCU’s Andy Dalton ahead of guys like Locker and Mallett.

While its true that “it just takes one team” to make a guy like Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker a top 15 pick, remember that this same logic applies to Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick.   I’ve seen more than a few mocks now that have Ponder going in the first round, and people are starting to talk about Kaepernick as a fringe first rounder now as well.  In the SBN authors mock Dan Kelly participated in, the writer for the Jaguars site Big Cat Country selected Christian Ponder with the 16th overall pick, with both Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett still on the board.  And while a fan mock is not going to be a perfect indicator by any means, I think its probably safe to assume that a guy who covers the Jaguars every day wouldn’t be terribly far off on his team’s interests, and it makes for a good example that sometimes players are picked sooner than they are expected to be and some are picked later- just like Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen last year.

In truth, we can say with a decent amount of confidence that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will probably be top 10 picks.  But after that, it basically becomes a QB raffle.  For example, Washington might like Locker a lot, but what if they like Kaepernick almost as much?  That would allow for the Redskins to draft an elite talent- like Alabama’s Julio Jones, and gamble that one of those two mobile QBs will still be there in the late 1st where trading up would not be terribly costly as teams in that area historically favor moving down.    Minnesota, Tennessee, and Jacksonville all figure to be in the hunt for a quarterback, but who do they like and how much do they like them?

In essence, we should prepare ourselves for the unexpected this draft day, because every single NFL front office thinks at least a little bit differently than the rest, and that is especially meaningful in such a muddy quarterback class.  It would probably be prudent to prepare yourself even for the painful-to-think-about possibility of Christian Ponder becoming a Seahawk with the 25th pick.  Almost everything about him screams John Schneider quarterback, if we use guys like Charlie Whitehurst, JP Losman, and Zac Robinson as the palette.

The remarkable unpredictability of this quarterback class has the potential to either save this franchise or doom it.  And because of that, this could end up being one of the more exciting and gut-wrenching first rounds we’ve had to sit through in quite some time.

Mike Mayock has Cam Newton 21st on his big board. And yet Newton has a very real shot to go 1st overall.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

While the 2011 class may not be a repeat of 1983 or even 2004, you could easily say that this is a quarterback’s draft.  Its been talked about that as many as seven quarterbacks could go in the first two rounds, and its likely we’ll see four or even five quarterbacks selected in the first round alone.  To put into perspective just how truly astonishing those numbers are, consider the number of QBs taken in the first two rounds in the last 5 drafts:

2010: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 1;  Total of first two rounds:  3.

2009: (1st round) 3;  (2nd round) 1;  Total of first two rounds:  4.

2008: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 2; Total of first two rounds:  4.

2007: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 3;  Total of first two rounds:  5.

2006: (1st round) 3;  (2nd round) 2;  Total of first two rounds:  5.

5 year average: (1st round) 2.4;  (2nd round) 1.8;  Total of first two rounds:  4.2.

So as you can see, if five quarterbacks come off the board in the first round, it would be double the 5 year average!

So why is this happening?  Well there are several factors in play here.  The first is that a lack of a collective bargaining agreement has banned franchises from signing quarterbacks in free agency or making trades for them.  If it seems odd to you that only 4 or so quarterbacks go in the first two rounds each year despite there being a perennial list of QB needy teams about four times bigger than that, its because many teams prefer to address their QB dilemma’s before the draft by signing or trading for a veteran.  Normally the draft acts as a safety net- whatever position you fail to address in free agency can be addressed in the draft.  This year, the roles have reversed, and its free agency that will act as the secondary source of filling out a roster.

This is not an optimal situation for front offices, because if they failed to sign/trade for a QB in the usual first phase of an offseason, at the very least they wouldn’t have to worry about “leverage” issues  from a draft pick.  But this year, if a team decides not to draft a QB, they face the possibility of being put over a barrel when discussing Kevin Kolb from the Eagles or Carson Palmer from the Bengals- because those teams will know you won’t have very many other options to fall back on.

The 2nd reason that such a high number of quarterbacks are getting 2nd round consideration is because this isn’t a top heavy class.  No QB in this class would be a lock for #1 in a typical offseason.  There isn’t a Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers level prospect to be had.  That means that QBs like Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, who are probably mid-1st round QBs, get pulled into the #1 overall discussion.  This in turn has a “rises all boats” effect on the rest of the class, because if both Gabbert and Newton are gone by the 5th pick, that means Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett become your “best QB available” starting at pick #6.  And if the “big 4” are gone by #25, that means that Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, and even Andy Dalton begin to get fringe 1st round consideration by needy teams looking to trade up into the end of the 1st.

The 3rd reason for such a high number of top 2 round consideration quarterbacks is an unusual lack of consensus when it comes to ordering these 7 prospects.  I’ll discuss this more in part 2.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

While Rob ships off to Jamaica, I’m coming back from a vacation of a different sort.  The “being lazy and making excuses to not post anything” type.  Admittedly its for a reason I’m sure many of you can relate to- that this is a pretty brutal offseason so far.  No free agency or trades before the draft, meaning that team’s needs are probably as undefined as we’ve ever seen, coupled with some fairly lousy draft capital owned by our beloved Seahawks.

Seahawks Draft Blog has really grown, and I haven’t posted in a long time:  so I’m probably a new name to many of you.  You might remember the Alex Gibbs piece I did, or maybe my 40 something odd part series of player of the day in which I previewed potential players Seattle might target in rounds 1 and 2, guys like Derrick Morgan, Trent Williams, Montario Hardesty, and so forth.

Rob has done an amazing job with this site and that’s why I’m here- to help promote what I think is an excellent source for Seahawks/draft news and analysis.  I came to know Rob online from his posting as TheEnglishSeahawk at scout’s Seahawks site back when Doug Farrar ran it.  Though I’ve never met Rob or even so much as talked to him on the phone, I consider him a friend and if there is anything I can do to promote his site I’ll gladly do it.

Its a shame the draft is so close and my ability to preview the draft is now pretty limited, but hey- we still have a potential lock out season, free agency and trades to be terrified about!  Hurray!

In general, I hope to take an in depth look at the “big story” of this draft, its QB class.  After that, I’m going to dive into Seattle’s stated intention of rebuilding the lines, if they can really do it and how they would go about it.  I’ll also offer some 2nd opinions on Rob’s analysis- which is probably my biggest regret from last year (not doing that).  Of the 40 something players I previewed last year, only 1 (!) was selected by Seattle (Earl Thomas).  Why?  Because I avoided talking about Russell Okung and Golden Tate.  Rob and Kyle held fairly strong and mostly negative opinions of Okung, seeing him as a late 1st rounder.  I always liked Okung and had him as my top tackle throughout the draft, but I didn’t want to rock the boat too much as I was a new contributor last year.  I kept my opinions to myself, although I did like Okung enough to successfully mock him to the Seahawks at #6 the day before it actually happened.  Similarly, I avoided talking about Golden Tate because Kyle Rota had expressed so much negativity about him, and I won’t kid myself into thinking I know more about evaluating WR than he does (and from what we’ve seen so far, I think he was right).

Well anyway, its great to be back.  I love how there is a new synergy in the Seahawks “blogosphere” between Rob Stanton, Brandon Adams, and Dan Kelly, three excellent writers.  This is how it should be.  I can’t wait to get started and be a part of it.