This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
This season, as much as any other, there are few clear answers in the NFL. Admittedly, six weeks in the league’s hierarchy of teams is rarely fully defined.
But this year, the unpredictable nature of the NFL has vastly been pushed into the forefront.
Traditional NFL powers like Baltimore, Kansas City, Buffalo and Philadelphia have looked sluggish and handcuffed by injuries at times. Indianapolis and Tampa Bay have the best records in the NFL and upstarts like New England, Chicago and Carolina appear like they will either be factors or spoilers by the time the playoffs come around.
It’s been a strange season so far.
It is in this landscape that I present to you maybe the NFL’s biggest enigma: The Seahawks’ opponent tonight, the Houston Texans.
They stand at 2-3, having clearly beaten inferior teams Tennessee and one half of the Baltimore Ravens and losing to the superior Rams, Bucs, Jaguars. Yet they sport a top-ten +47-point differential, due to only losing by a combined thirteen points in their three losses.
They have one of the NFL’s top defenses, with top-quality players at all three levels, but year to date they have only generated twelve sacks and an 18% pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks, which are bottom-ten numbers. They also have seven defenders in the bottom 100 of the NFL in tackling efficiency, more than any other team except Cincinnati.
Nothing about their current offense is special, especially their offensive line. And yet CJ Stroud is not constantly under duress, and he and Nico Collins are one of the most connected duos in the NFL and can turn the game on its head quickly.
This is typically a game where you would feel comfortable with projecting a Seahawks win. But this can turn into a game at any moment, depending on which Texans team shows up.
How can the Seahawks take control of this game and head into their bye week 5-2?
Play a Clean Game and Win with Defense
Houston is a well-coached team. They are +1 in turnover ratio, better than the Seahawks, who sit at -1 currently. They have only lost two fumbles, and the Seahawks are the only team in the NFL without a fumble recovery on defense.
Like the Seahawks, they are disciplined and do not take many penalties.
Their opponents start drives on average at the 25-yard line, best in the NFL.
They have not been a team that regularly helps their opponents win by making mistakes. Cheap points will likely not be easy to come by.
The margins are slimmer to be sure. But the Seahawks hold a sizeable advantage in talent and their track record of game play is more consistent than Houston’s. If they are able to play smart, well-coached football, they should be able to have a comfortable handle on this game.
The Seahawks defense vs the Texans offense is where they have their biggest advantage. If they can make a clear statement and keep the field-position and time-of-possession game in their favor, it would greatly assist the offense to score some points of the easier variety. An extreme example of this was the Raiders-Chiefs disaster of a game yesterday. The Chiefs sustained long drives on offense and kept the Raiders from gaining any momentum on offense. Whenever the Raiders started making progress, the Chiefs defenders would win at the point of attack and either move Geno Smith out of his spot or force a holding penalty on the Raiders to kill drives. The Raiders responded by constantly ignoring the run game and passing at will, which enabled Kansas City to tee off on the offense and it just enflamed the situation.
Win the Trenches and Spread the Ball Around
With respect to the Rams and Bucs, the Texans have not faced a defensive line as deep and talented as Seattle’s. They can get pressure with just their standard base package, and with stunts and the occasional blitz mixed in, the Seahawks should be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense. Houston’s line is not the horror show we saw last season or early this season (especially after they finally benched old friend Laken Tomlinson). But up and down the line, you can see spots for the defense to attack.
Aireontae Ersery at Left Tackle is starting as a rookie. While he has great measurables and looks like he might be their starter for years to come, he is still feeling his way in the NFL and has given up four sacks in five games already. Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe should get plenty of chances to put pressure on C.J. Stroud from the blind side. Tytus Howard on the right side is going to have his hands full with Demarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams.
But the real matchup that could define game is in the interior. Jake Andrews, Juice Scruggs and Ed Ingram are reminiscent of some of the interiors the Seahawks have run out in recent years that have given fans fits. While they have their occasional wins (Ingram is well-graded by PFF for what it is worth), this is where the Seahawks need to earn their money. Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams will provide a clear mismatch and should regularly push the pocket into Stroud’s lap and keep the second level of the defense clean.
Allowing the linebackers and safeties free reign to do their jobs will be a critical part of this game. Houston’s running game has been nothing to write home about this year, being about league average. Nick Chubb’s first down conversion rate is below his career norm, and Stroud is right behind him in rushing first downs.
Also, Dalton Schultz could be a challenge for the Seahawks. With Christian Kirk out, Stroud will have one less pro-grade weapon in the passing game. Schultz is a player that is solid in running routes but also functions well as a dump-off safety valve when the pressure gets to be too much and he is effective at turning a three-yard completion into a catch and run for a first down. He is a Tight End but runs routes and motions like a Wide Receiver to get his best matchup. The Seahawks have had trouble defending Tight Ends but with Nick Emmanwori and Devon Witherspoon back, this could be another game-defining matchup. Without a fair number of yards after the catch, it could force Stroud to make deeper passes than he is comfortable with and that will give the pass rush a chance to really pin their ears back and get after him.
On the flip side, it might be fair to say that Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter will be the best edge duo the Seahawks face this year. Charles Cross can really put a stamp on a relatively solid season by keeping Sam Darnold clean. And Abe Lucas will need to return to his best form to keep either of these players from wrecking the game.
Do the Seahawks need to specifically alter their game plan to combat these two monsters? To a degree they will. No doubt they will run Twelve Personnel and occasionally have A.J. Barner or Eric Saubert chipping on one side and then releasing to a route or staying home as a safety valve option for Sam Darnold.
However, here is where the beauty of the Klint Kubiak offense comes in. Darnold has been so quick, so accurate that he gets rid of the ball before the pass rush can get home. Anything short of a complete whiff by blockers and more often than not, he gets the ball out. It is true that overall, the Offensive Line is performing better than in previous seasons, but it is also just as much due to the design of the offense and the razor-sharp effectiveness in which Darnold runs it.
Winning on offense and defense is not just about scheme but about matching up on individual sequences and timing. A fine effort by the pass rushers could be spoiled by a well-chosen pass or a run that goes right through the gaps they just vacated. Kubiak will need that kind of timing and cleverness with his calls tonight.
Derek Stingley is one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks, and no doubt he will see a lot of snaps across from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There is no reason to avoid throwing at Stingley though. Smith-Njigba is performing at such a high level and has such chemistry with Sam Darnold, there should be no hesitance to try and win with the formula that has been working so well. He is far and away the most-targeted Receiver for the Seahawks and that should not change.
However, spreading the ball around helps keep the defense honest and the Seahawks have so many weapons, the Texans could struggle to contain them all. A.J. Barner has proven to be so much more than the blocking Tight End that we all thought we were getting when he was drafted. He has turned into a real option in the passing game and just when the defense thinks they have the main threats locked in on a play, bam, Darnold finds Barner for a back-breaking play.
I also think this could be a game where Elijah Arroyo and Tory Horton could play a similar role. More than once this season, we have seen the play designs that overwhelm the defense and draw coverages away from that third or fourth receiver option and he is wide open, waiting to be exploited.
In studying the tape, one area where the Texans can be vulnerable is the quick slant and in-breaking route that the Seahawks are so effective in. Baker Mayfield went to that well time and time again in Week 2 against them. And while he only logged 191 passing yards, he was very effective at keeping the pace of the game in the Bucs’ favor. Cooper Kupp and Smith-Njigba have developed excellent chemistry with Darnold, and it can be a bread-and-butter type play to set up deeper shots later in the game.
