Author: Rob Staton (Page 24 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Why Drew Allar will be my main focus this weekend

December 6, 2024 /

The play of Drew Allar more or less reflects Penn State’s season overall. It’s been fine. Just enough to get to where they wanted to go — the BIG-10 Championship game and the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong, despite statistically seeing a regression this year — his tape is a lot better. He’s nowhere near as erratic and aimless in 2024, even if he’s thrown seven fewer touchdowns and three more interceptions.

I think he warrants a place in the middle rounds of the 2025 draft and would be best served playing another year in college football. However, according to Tony Pauline, that isn’t likely:

While I do not know Allar’s conversations with agents, everyone around the Penn State program I’ve spoken with expects the Junior to enter the draft.

And though he’s not another Christian Hackenburg, if Allar enters the draft as expected, he will be overdrafted, as Hackenburg was.

He reminds me of Mike Glennon, the former NC State quarterback taken in round three who bounced around the league — most famously receiving a big contract from the Chicago Bears shortly before they traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky instead of Patrick Mahomes.

The biggest problem is his technique, in particular his footwork. His throwing base whenever he has to move is problematic. Too often the velocity comes solely from his arm — at the next level, throwing this way, especially under increasing pressure, will lead to inaccurate throws. Plus every time he has to move he looks so ungainly and awkward. On the whole though I was always just left wanting more. Give me more plays to get excited about. I didn’t see enough.

I’d argue he’s had an unremarkable college career. Penn State haven’t had any keynote wins. Allar is far from solely responsible for this but he’s not carrying momentum into the NFL in the way some of the highly drafted quarterbacks did a year ago.

That’s one of the reasons I’m focusing on the game against Oregon. This is his latest opportunity to leave a big impression.

I’m also watching because Seattle’s GM is John Schneider.

I’ve no idea whether Schneider would be interested in Allar. He isn’t just automatically going to like every big-armed, tall, well-sized quarterback. He has shown a tendency to like these kinds of players though. Allar might be a bit awkward on the move but he is, in fairness, not a total statue. The GM who traded for Charlie Whitehurst and acquired (and talked up) Drew Lock may well see something in Allar.

At some point Schneider is going to draft a quarterback. I don’t blame him for not taking one since Russell Wilson was traded because none of the players he’s passed on have amounted to much so far. The Seahawks have an appealing bridge arrangement with Geno Smith but actually need to get the player you’re bridging to. You can’t force it though.

How inclined is Schneider to wait for the ‘wow’ player? The type of prospect who gives him the same feeling he had with Josh Allen, Wilson and Mahomes? Has he been so restrained for so long that he’s now almost inclined to wait for a ‘slap you in the chops high quality’ prospect? Or is he willing to take a player like Allar a bit earlier than he perhaps warrants, on the basis of potential and with the objective of development?

I do wonder if he’s waiting for special, in part because so much of the post-Carroll era will be judged on Schneider’s ability to find a great young quarterback. Clearly he liked Sam Howell because he traded for him and said he liked him in the draft. Yet he decided not to select him in even in round four. A whiff at quarterback in the draft would create pressure and it might increase conservatism when making a decision to select a QB.

I don’t necessarily see this as a bad thing though. I see fans all the time saying ‘just take one’. That’s not how it works. You can’t pass up players rated significantly higher on your board for the sake of being seen to simply select a quarterback. There’s also a lot more you have to consider when picking a signal caller. You have to see leadership and certain personality characteristics within a player to believe they can lead your franchise. You don’t have to worry about that as much when you select Coby Bryant instead of Howell, as Seattle did in 2022.

That said, I would like to see Schneider take a chance if he thinks a player can be ‘the guy’. The benefit of such a player playing for 3-4 years on a cheap contract is significant if they want to build-up other parts of the team.

I do believe Schneider will do this when he sees that player — and it won’t necessarily be one that universally has Seahawks fans roaring their approval. I’m sure some would’ve railed against Allen based on his Wyoming tape. He reportedly advocated for taking Andy Dalton in 2011 but Pete Carroll didn’t agree — and without consensus, they went in a different direction.

We’ve talked in the past about Schneider possibly having interest in Quinn Ewers. Now we’re talking about Allar. Twitter will be a fun place if they select either within the first two rounds.

The 2025 quarterback class might not be a great one but there are others who could interest Seattle enough to make an investment. I think, for example, John would have some appreciation for Garrett Nussmeier.

Back to Allar — you can clearly see his ability to throw downfield and he has some excellent layered throws into tight windows this year. There are also a few crazy moments where he avoids pressure, extends the play and makes a big completion downfield. This is what Schneider seems to like.

Statistically there are some fascinating things to consider. For example, he’s only thrown 10 ‘big time throws’. This is a relative tiny amount compared to the other big name quarterbacks eligible for 2025:

Seth Henigan — 29
Jaxson Dart — 28
Cam Ward — 28
Shedeur Sanders — 26
Carson Beck — 21
Garrett Nussmeier — 20
Kurtis Rourke — 18
Jalen Milroe — 17
Will Howard — 16
Max Brosmer — 14
Quinn Ewers — 10 (missed games through injury)

However, on the plus side he isn’t making too many risky plays. He’s only thrown four ‘turnover worthy plays’ which is a huge contrast to the other quarterbacks:

Carson Beck — 18
Garrett Nussmeier — 16
Quinn Ewers — 15
Cam Ward — 14
Jaxson Dart — 13
Will Howard — 13
Seth Henigan — 13
Max Brosmer — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kurtis Rourke — 8
Shedeur Sanders — 6

I’m not sure these stats are actually a great feather in Allar’s cap when it comes to the Seahawks. I think Schneider is looking for a Brett Favre type of player — a gunslinger. Someone who is willing to take a few risks to make magic happen. I think he might be more interested in a slightly higher number of turnover worthy plays if the same player is also making a considerable number of big time throws.

Let’s look at Allar’s deep passing. Does he take enough chances? Only 11.2% of his throws are 20+ yard attempts. This is how he compares to other players:

Jaxson Dart — 22.3%
Jalen Milroe — 17.9%
Seth Henigan — 17.3%
Carson Beck — 16.1%
Kurtis Rourke — 16%
Cam Ward — 15.9%
Garrett Nussmeier — 15.9%
Shedeur Sanders — 14.8%
Max Brosmer — 11.7%

How can it be that someone with Allar’s size and arm is throwing a smaller percentage of deep throws than any of the names above? He only attempted 32 deep passes during the regular season. Here are the comparisons again:

Jaxson Dart — 81
Garrett Nussmeier — 78
Seth Henigan — 78
Carson Beck — 70
Cam Ward — 69
Shedeur Sanders — 68
Jalen Milroe — 52
Kurtis Rourke — 46
Max Brosmer — 44

Either by design or by choice, he isn’t let it rip enough. If Schneider is really tied to the idea of a gunslinging quarterback, Allar needs to push the ball downfield against Oregon and in the playoffs.

Granted, a big part of this will be the fact that tight end Tyler Warren is his top weapon. He looks for him all the time and as a tight end — he isn’t going to be running downfield much. Yet you could equally argue Mason Taylor is LSU’s best target, or that Georgia rely on their tight ends. Both teams throw downfield more than Penn State.

How you handle pressure and protecting the football is important. Allar does have the tools to be a more prolific deep-ball thrower and he’s statistically strong under pressure. Shedeur Sanders for example has created a NCAA high 15 self-inflicted pressures this season. Allar has created only seven. It’s incredible how bad Sanders has been at self-inflicted pressure. He was also responsible for seven QB hits and an astonishing 21 hurries. Cam Ward instigated 14 avoidable hurries, the second most among big names. Allar only contributed six.

Only four of Allar’s big time throws came under pressure, although none of his turnover worthy plays were under pressure either. He had the seventh best passing grade under pressure (68.3) in a similar range to Sanders (65.6) and Jaxson Dart (65.4).

Here’s the ratio of BTT’s to TWP’s under pressure:

Kurtis Rourke — 6/3
Jaxson Dart — 6/6
Cam Ward — 7/9
Shedeur Sanders — 8/3
Max Brosmer — 3/3
Will Howard — 1/6
Quinn Ewers — 1/5
Jalen Milroe — 4/5
Garrett Nussmeier — 3/10
Seth Henigan — 5/7
Carson Beck — 4/10

These numbers show why Sanders will probably be the first quarterback taken. He does create a maddening amount of self-pressure but he somehow actually thrives in this environment. Throwing 26 BTT’s and only six TWP’s all year, with a positive ratio under pressure, is impressive. Most of the other players struggle under pressure, unsurprisingly. Allar is the only player not to throw a TWP under pressure all year — but he’s equally not making a ton of ‘wow’ moments.

Penn State’s pass blocking grade only ranks 82nd in the NCAA. Texas are first (I’m surprised by this and it raises suspicion about the quality of PFF’s grading again frankly), Memphis 6th, Georgia 11th, Miami 23rd, Indiana 29th, LSU 33rd, Colorado 35th, Minnesota 62nd, Alabama 68th, Ole Miss 91st and Ohio State 106th. So it’s to his credit that he’s not made more mistakes.

Has he shown special qualities though? He hasn’t had a moment like Ewers on the road in Alabama last season. He has the frame to start in the NFL but does he have the ‘stuff’ to be a top quality franchise QB? Why isn’t he making more big plays downfield, why isn’t he even attempting to do so?

There are some moments on tape where you think — I can see Schneider liking this guy. Here’s one against Maryland:

This is the kind of arm strength you need to throw into tight windows over the middle in the NFL:

If Allar can go toe-to-toe with Oregon, have a great performance and elevate his stock further in the playoffs — he might be a name to watch. I suspect teams will be eager to see what he can do.

Yet I get the sense it’ll be more of the same. Another so-so performance. He’ll make some good plays, sure. Not enough though. Oregon will win, not emphatically but they’ll get the job done. It’ll be another close loss for Penn State in a big game.

It’s up to Allar and his team-mates to change the narrative there. In terms of his draft stock, it’d be nice to see him take a few more risks and make things happen.

Scouting notes after the final regular season weekend of college football

December 5, 2024 /

Get Grey Zabel in a Seahawks uniform

North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel possibly won’t be my highest graded offensive lineman but he might be the one I want the most on the Seahawks.

I think his tape is fantastic. He ticks virtually every box. He plays with great physicality and he’s a classic tough guy offensive lineman. Zabel’s a true finisher and that’s the kind of lineman I want the Seahawks to target. You watch his blocks and he’s constantly working his feet, adjusting his hand position and driving forwards looking to clear opponents off the line.

His agility and movement is excellent — meaning he can mirror off the edge with ease and reach up to the second level comfortably. It won’t be a surprise if he runs a great short shuttle and 10-yard split. There’s plenty of twitch in his short-area change of direction and he plays with loose hips for a man listed at 6-6 and 305lbs.

When he connects he’s strong at the point of attack and even when defenders gain leverage and jolt him backwards, he has a strong enough back and base to plant the anchor. Zabel plays with heavy hands on contact and he transfers power through his legs to win leverage battles in a way not common for a man his size.

Durability is a key strength of his — he’s played in 58 college games. He’s strong in both the running and passing game. I wouldn’t put it past him to excel at tackle but I think he can be a tremendous guard.

There are technical improvements he needs to make to clean up some initial hand-placement issues, so he doesn’t have to adjust as much and turning forceful power into controlled power at the next level will be key. However, NDSU has a production line for NFL talent — Cody Mauch, Dillon Radunz, Billy Turner, Billy Turner. Zabel to me is the most exciting NDSU lineman I’ve watched on tape. I’d love to kick him inside to left guard and develop him.

He is PFF’s top graded offensive tackle with a 91.8 grade. He’s given up one sack in 2024, three hurries and only six pressures. He is on my board with a strong second round grade pre-Senior Bowl and combine. I want this guy in Seattle.

This upcoming draft class will present interior O-line options for the Seahawks. They might prefer to go with a bigger, SEC-battled-tested player like Tyler Booker — or one of a handful of others worthy of going in the top-50. Zabel belongs in the conversation and in a few years I’ve got a feeling we’ll look back and determine he provided fantastic value wherever he’s taken.

Justin Simmons & Will Campbell declare

Players are already starting to declare for the NFL Draft at the conclusion of the college football regular season. Justin Simmons, despite his recent knee surgery, is turning pro. Ohio State’s left tackle is the best blind-side blocker eligible and could still be a high first round pick as a consequence.

LSU’s Will Campbell has also turned pro, with many in draft media rushing to declare he’s the best offensive lineman available. I would dispute that with gusto. He is a short-armed tackle who has to kick inside to guard and doesn’t play with the kind of aggression and power you ideally want from an interior blocker. He doesn’t play with any edge and too often looks passive.

Here’s Campbell giving up an easy sack on Saturday, leading to quarterback Garrett Nussmeier having to temporarily leave the game with an injury:

So you can’t play him at left tackle due to his length and he doesn’t have the ideal characteristics of a guard. Why exactly is he the top offensive lineman again? Or a high pick at all for that matter? I’m starting to think people lean too much into Bruce Feldman’s freaks list for their projections. In the 2024 version, it was reported Campbell can run a 1.57 10-yard split. I’ll believe that when I see it.

I think he’s firmly a day two prospect for teams who don’t place a high value on physicality and power at the POA and might prefer a more athletic guard.

Quarterback notes

Thankfully Nussmeier was OK and returned to throw two long touchdown passes including a superb 55-yard effort. When the internet turns against someone, it spreads quickly. They are being a bit silly. He will go in the first round if he declares and I do think John Schneider will see some appeal with his playing mentality. I think a lot of teams will like his personality (turn the volume on below):

He has easily thrown the most NFL-level passes this year among the quarterback class. There are aspects to his game that need ironing out and he made some mistakes. Guess what — so did Cam Ward. The difference is, Nussmeier threw 11 interceptions in a loaded SEC schedule including South Carolina, Texas A&M and a much improved Florida on the road, plus Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma at home. This isn’t an ACC schedule.

Neither did he have LSU’s typical assortment of weapons or the protection we expected given the high profile O-line in front of him. Nussmeier is talented and while many are saying he should return to school — I’m not convinced another year under Brian Kelly’s regime will do him that much good. Not unless they blitz the portal for weapons and linemen.

In terms of the other quarterbacks, I thought Cam Ward probably had his most impressive game of the season at Syracuse even in a defeat. He looked far more poised with less unnecessary pocket movement. Granted, he was facing yet another appalling defense. Yet this was a strong display and it’s a shame Miami didn’t make the playoffs so we can see him face tougher opponents. He did nearly throw a really bad red zone pick at the end — he was lucky it was dropped after being tipped up in the air.

Quinn Ewers showed plenty of arm talent with a fantastic 50-yard throw against Texas A&M that had perfect touch, accuracy and velocity. However, he also once again showed major inconsistencies and turnovers. The Longhorns have this habit of playing well for one half and terribly in the other. He threw an awful pick-six, returned for 93-yards, Texas A&M’s only points. The ankle injury clearly hobbled him and disrupted his rhythm. Ewers is such a difficult projection. There are signs of natural talent most weeks but the injuries and mistakes have prevented him from taking a step forward this year. I don’t think his stock has improved in 2024.

Jalen Milroe produced another mix of ugly throws leading to mistakes and flashes of physical potential. He had two fumbles and a pick in the game. He also showed off a strong arm. As with the Will Campbell talk, I’ve spent weeks baffled by draft media’s chatter around Milroe.

Apparently he’s shown real development as a passer. Look at the numbers. Last year he attempted 284 passes and so far this year he’s on 287 — so it’s a fair sample comparison. He has 15 touchdowns and 10 picks this year. Compare that to his 23/6 ratio from 2023. His quarterback rating has dropped by nearly 20 points. His yardage is down by 200 yards and his completion percentage has improved by a whopping 0.1%.

If anything he’s just become a more effective runner. His average per rush has improved by 1.4 YPC, his yardage jumped from 531 to 719 and he scored eight more rushing touchdowns.

You’re drafting him purely for physical potential. He is not an accurate, poised passer. When Oklahoma took away his running, he couldn’t do anything. Any NFL system would need to be designed with the quarterback run being a main feature, with limited responsibility initially from the pocket — building the playbook up over time. That’s a big project, not a first round quarterback.

Shedeur Sanders played well in an easy win vs Oklahoma State but had a three play sequence where he took unnecessary sacks to turn a 1st and goal to 4th and goal at the 37 yard line. This is the side of his game that needs major work. He lingers on plays too long, needs to take what’s there or get out of the play. My worry at the next level is he’ll be too focused on the spectacular and it’ll be hard to knock that out of him. It could mean he takes too many risks, absorbs too many sacks and is constantly in a boom-or-bust mode. To his credit he checked down a lot more after dad had a word at half-time but he also threw behind badly leading to an interception. He’s a talented player but if I were the Giants, Raiders or Jets banking on him being a franchise saviour early in the first round — I think they’re in for a shock.

Max Brosmer continues to show he has something. The Minnesota quarterback has had a really understated year — playing well within a system that involves more under-center work than most and excelling in several games. His first touchdown against Wisconsin was a well thrown pass with great anticipation in the red zone with timing and accuracy. Here’s his second passing touchdown of the day:

That’s a perfectly placed throw to attack the mismatched defender. And again — look at the play. It’s a play-action pass under center. Virtually every college quarterback works exclusively from the shotgun these days. You have to figure out how comfortable they are under center in the pre-draft process and camp. Here’s Brosmer turning his back to the defense and when he pivots to throw, he sees a defender in his face. It’s a great pickup by the running back to buy the quarterback an extra second — but he doesn’t panic, he stays calm and poised and delivers a bullseye throw.

I’ve taken a bit of time to study Brosmer’s personality and character and he is highly driven, impressive and has had to work for everything. There’s a player here. The difficulty is how do you project a player without spectacular physical tools? He doesn’t have a weak arm and he’s not immobile but he doesn’t have difference making athleticism or an X-factor arm. Eventually he might just find the NFL is a level too high. That said, of all the quarterbacks who get talked up for the draft, I’ve seen plenty from Brosmer over the last six weeks to justify more attention compared to the others.

Another player who deserves more attention is Memphis’ Seth Henigan. In an upset win against Tulane he was superb — showing great awareness on third downs (10/16) while managing the game and still being able to make impressive downfield throws. He set a new AAC record for career passing yards during the game (13,972) and helped Memphis surpass 20 offensive points for a 39th straight game. The Tigers secured consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in program history and the quarterback is a big reason why. He is elevating his team.

Check out the game highlights here and watch the throw he makes 28 seconds in. He doesn’t step into the throw due to a muddy pocket but still launches the ball 50-yards downfield with accuracy. This is on 3rd and 9, so it’s a key play.

Henigan has some tools, plenty of experience and he’s had success. Whether he’s quite good enough to start in the NFL remains to be seen but if we’re talking about second and third tier quarterback prospects — he and Brosmer deserve more attention than they get.

Finally among quarterbacks, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King intrigues me. He might not declare but he is eligible. He could’ve/should’ve beaten Georgia in a crazy eight-OT contest. Afterwards I watched several other Georgia Tech games to get a feel for their QB. He’s an excellent athlete, deceptively quick and a hard runner. He outran Jalon Walker to the edge on one play. He was physically exhausted during this game after putting the team on his back as a runner and passer. He shows no quit, can break off big game-breaking runs and also get yards after contact when necessary.

King’s arm is good and he can make plays downfield. I was impressed with how he threw on third downs, including a huge 3rd and 7 completion in the fourth quarter when leading 20-13. A minute later he ran for his second touchdown in what should’ve been the clinching score.

His offense is very RPO heavy. It’s tricky and not exactly pro-style but he was efficient, dynamic, creative and generally did a good job protecting the ball while taking calculated risks.

Overall I like him. I’m intrigued to see if he intends to return to school or turn pro. If he does go back, he’ll be a name to watch in 2025.

Now here are my non-quarterback notes:

— Mike Green had another sack (see below) for Marshall. It’s a stunt, otherwise known as the cheat code for CFB pressure. You can see the closing speed as he bursts to the quarterback though. I really hope Green attends the Senior Bowl so we get a good look at him in 1v1’s:

— Speaking of the Senior Bowl, there’s been a raft of accepted invites in the last few days. It’s great to see the likes of Tai Felton, Elijah Arroyo, Xavier Restrepo, Kalel Mullings, Ty Robinson, Grey Zabel, Riley Leonard, Will Howard, Jordan Burch, Demetrius Knight, Bru McCoy, Josaiah Stewart, Hunter Wohler and Jack Nelson heading to Mobile. It’s a bit of a shame to see Kurtis Rourke accept a Shrine Bowl invite — unless the Senior Bowl didn’t make a big push for him. The Senior Bowl is easily the superior of the two and it was better for the league (and draft enthusiasts) when they weren’t competing.

— On South Carolina linebacker Demetrius Knight, he had a crucial interception to clinch a win against Clemson. Every time I watched the Gamecocks he stood out. It’s frustrating they didn’t make the CFB Playoffs because their defense is loaded with talent. Knight is mature, already has a family, plays every down like it’s his last and he’s had an impact this year. I just hope he tests well.

— I’ve been saying it a few times recently — Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell is a tank. My guess is he goes in the top-25 in this class.

— Sticking with linebackers, UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger had another eye-catching performance against Fresno State. He had 15 tackles, a sack, one TFL and one deflected pass in the win. He recorded his ninth 10+ tackle game of the season, the most by a UCLA defender since Eric Kendricks in 2014. When I talk about wanting to see attacking intent from a linebacker — this is what it looks like:

— Jake Majors the Texas center had another strong game against Texas A&M. He won’t go as high as I have him graded (round two) but that’s all the more reason to grab a steal of a player, possibly in round three. To me he has long-term NFL starter written all over him. He can control blocks, his hand placement is good, he’s aggressive and athletic, he can reach to the second level. I like Majors a lot.

— Alabama center Parker Brailsford had an excellent game in pass protection against Auburn. It’s been mostly a steady year for Brailsford but I think we saw flashes of his enormous upside at the weekend. Size and measurements are critical for his stock but there’s no doubting he can play. If Ryan Grubb remains offensive coordinator in Seattle next season, his own experience with players like Brailsford could be very useful. He’ll also get plenty of other intel on Alabama’s prospects from Kalen DeBoer and co.

— Shiloh Sanders delivered one of the hits of the season in the second half of Colorado’s big win against Oklahoma State. You love to see tackles like this:

— It’s becoming increasingly difficult, while watching another productive day for Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, including hurdling defenders with ease, to not project he will go higher than most think. He could go in the top-15 in this class.

— While watching the Memphis vs Tulane game, receiver Greg Desrosiers Jr caught my eye. He made a string of plays including an incredible move to get open on 3rd and 8 to virtually clinch the game. He’s a redshirt junior and a transfer from UMass. I’ll monitor to see if he declares.

— Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson has declared for the NFL. I don’t understand why he isn’t universally considered RB2, which is where we’ve had him for weeks. He has been Iowa’s whole offense this season and can make plays like this:

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The Seahawks still have five question marks on the offensive line

December 3, 2024 /

Will Charles Cross take a big step forward? Is Abe Lucas still a viable long term solution at right tackle? Are any of the interior linemen any good?

These were questions that needed to be answered this season. After 12 games, they’re either unanswered or have produced negative results.

Let’s start with Cross.

Early in the season it seemed Seattle’s media and a section of the fan base had determined Cross had taken the next step and was now a stud left tackle well worth a big extension. It’s become conventional wisdom among many that he’s playing well. Statistically though, the evidence suggests he hasn’t progressed as much as some think.

On Sunday he was easily beaten for a sack by Will McDonald with a speed rush:

This concerned me. Cross’ calling card is speed and athleticism. He’s never been particularly strong at the point of attack. Yet his athleticism and feet should make him a good match against pure speed rushers like McDonald. Here he was though, looking flat-footed.

I looked at his numbers for the season. Among NFL tackles, Cross has given up the second most hurries and pressures. He’s tied with Trevor Penning and Tytus Howard for hurries (26), trailing only New England’s struggling Demontrey Jacobs (28). For pressures, he’s tied with Nicholas Petit-Frere and Terence Steele (35) and again is second only to Jacobs (41).

Cross has also given up five sacks, tied for ninth most in the NFL. Five of the players he’s tied with are rookies, with the other players being Cam Robinson, Jake Mathews and second-year right tackle Darnell Wright.

In fairness, Cross has played 495 ‘allowed pressure opportunity’ snaps (when the ball isn’t spiked and a penalty isn’t called) compared to Jacobs’ 387 and Penning’s 424. However, it’s still not great company to be in. This is especially the case given Cross is a finesse pass-blocker. Three years into his career, he’s giving up a lot of pressures and hurries in the passing game.

On my stream yesterday with Jeff Simmons, someone asked whether having Lucas back at right tackle had helped Cross and had there been an improvement in his numbers. The answer, sadly, is no. Of the five sacks Cross has given up, four have come in the last three games since Lucas returned. He’s also given up nine pressures and four hurries.

His PFF grade of 82.1 for the season is still very reasonable and is good enough for 11th overall among tackles. However, when you look at his game-to-game performance, it paints a different picture. For example, Cross received an elite 94.8 grade for his display against Denver in week one. Between weeks 2-13, his average grade is only 69.1.

So what does this mean?

I’m not suggesting for a second that the Seahawks need to go out and acquire a replacement in the off-season. I just don’t think there’s any evidence suggesting Cross deserves a massive extension in the off-season, while his level of performance warrants more scrutiny. He is an ‘OK’ left tackle who is yet, in my opinion, to justify the top-10 pick Seattle used on him.

Trent Williams, the highest paid left tackle in the NFL, is getting $27.5m a year. I wouldn’t be rushing to commit to Cross on a deal that would be in that range. The Seahawks can’t afford to pay great money for OK performances.

The fifth year option on his contract buys them some time but I still think the jury’s out here. If he has improved in 2024, it hasn’t been a significant jump.

It’s still too early to have any read on whether Abe Lucas can be a long-term answer at right tackle. We’re only a few weeks removed from wondering if we’d ever see him play again. He’s played three games now and has shown mixed form, which is to be expected.

So far he’s given up six pressures, three hurries and two sacks. He had a 76.8 grade against the Niners but that dropped to 48.6 against Arizona and 63.9 against the Jets. Nevertheless, a successful season for Lucas will be staying healthy, feeling confident going into next season and getting some game time back into his body. So far, he hasn’t looked amazing but he also hasn’t been a liability. That’s about as much as anyone could realistically hope for. Until we get to the end of the season and see him have a good training camp next year and start in 2025, the question mark over whether he can be a long-term answer at right tackle will remain.

If he can stay on the field I’ve no doubt he can be the guy. Lucas was a firm blog favourite pre-draft and I thought he deserved a fringe first round grade. His frame, athletic profile and physical attitude is perfect for a NFL offensive tackle. He can be the tone-setter, the figurehead and identity of the line. I thought he was a better player than Cross going into the 2022 draft and I didn’t see anything during their rookie seasons to believe that wasn’t fair.

Fans have every right to feel optimistic about Lucas but time is needed to find out whether he’s the guy we all hoped he would be when he was taken as a third round steal two-and-a-half years ago.

Now the interior line. Oh dear.

Laken Tomlinson will need to be replaced next season. Olu Oluwatimi, after a promising game against the 49ers, has not looked good against the Cardinals or Jets. The fact they promoted Sataoa Laumea to start instead of Christian Haynes is not encouraging at all for their third round pick. Laumea shouldn’t be judged too harshly on his debut, especially when he had to face a Jets team featuring Quinnen Williams, but he didn’t play well — giving up two pressures and two hurries and earning a 29.3 grade.

While the Seahawks would be right to bide their time with their two tackles and see how 2025 plays out, there’s absolutely no doubt they have to fix their interior O-line as a priority in the off-season.

A player like Tyler Booker could help solve the issue at left guard. He’s a plug-in-and-play type with great size. He’s a former 5-star athlete and has played consistently well for Alabama over two seasons. Booker is also a high quality individual, a captain and exactly the type of person the Seahawks have loved to draft in recent years. It almost feels too perfect for them to take him in round one.

He’s not the only option though. The likes of Josh Conerly, Donovan Jackson, Jonah Savaiinaea, Aireontae Ersery (who I see as a guard), Jack Nelson and Grey Zabel could also provide solutions and help at either guard spot. I am not a big fan of Wyatt Milum at tackle as his frame is far better suited inside at guard or center — but he’s a good run blocker.

There are also a small pool of appealing centers, including the brilliant Logan Jones, Jake Majors and Parker Brailsford, with Jared Wilson not too far behind. It’s not as hard as the Seahawks have made it seem to land a good center. Blog favourites Creed Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Drew Dalman, Zach Frazier, Joe Tippmann and Cam Jurgens are playing well. Converted or prospective centers we liked such as Quinn Meinerz, Zach Tom and Landon Dickerson are also thriving. They need to finally solve this position once and for all.

You can’t help but feel the line lacks proven quality, experience and leadership though. Signing someone like Ryan Kelly, a pending free agent from the Colts, would add that immediately. James Daniels has done enough at right guard to warrant a look and you can do worse than Austin Corbett. I’m not sure you’ll get Kevin Zeitler out of Detroit but make the call.

It’s also time for the pro-personnel department to step up to the plate and find some solutions that aren’t commonly known among fans and media. That hasn’t happened enough.

The best O-lines in the league are not made up of five top-10 picks. Detroit’s line includes Graham Glasgow, a third rounder the Lions let walk only to re-sign three years later, plus Zeitler. Denver’s line has Ben Powers at guard, a fourth rounder signed from the Ravens, a fifth round center in Luke Wattenburg and a third rounder in Meinerz. The Eagles have a seventh rounder at tackle, two second rounders at guard and center and their right guard is Mekhi Becton, plucked off the scrap heap in New York. Tampa Bay has Ben Brederson, a free agent who’s bounced around a bit, plus Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke, two second rounders.

There’s also the question of coaching and philosophy of course. Making changes to the line is necessary but not if your staff are incapable of supporting the line with a plan to run the ball with any effectiveness. It is headache-inducing to watch the Seahawks try and run the football, with Ken Walker having to work three times as hard as any other running back in the league to get positive yardage. Even a sub-standard line shouldn’t be as bad as Seattle’s is when it comes to needing to get a yard.

There’s a lot of work to be done here, some big decisions need to be made, and some truth and honesty is required about the players on the roster if the Seahawks are going to fix their offensive line play and running game.

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Jets in a crazy game

December 1, 2024 /

It’s been a while since I’ve felt genuinely stressed during a Seahawks game. Hello old friend, the feeling has returned.

The Seahawks vs Jets was weird. Weird and funny and annoying and enjoyable at the end.

There was a definite early-Carroll era vibe to this one. Seattle playing a sloppy first half to dig themselves a big old hole. The comeback happens but even then, you needed a couple of headache tablets to accompany some frustrating moments. Then — all’s well that ends well.

Special teams was a disaster zone. A Dee Williams return fumble, a Laviska Shenault return fumble (regained by Seattle), another Shenault fumble (this time snagged by the Jets), a kick-off return touchdown for New York and then a blocked Justin Myers extra-point. Not to mention numerous positive returns.

I was commentating today for the day job and listened to the first quarter-and-a-bit in the car. When I got to my door, AJ Barner was scoring his touchdown. By the time I’d dumped my gear, boiled the kettle and was about to make a much needed brew, the Jets had scored their kick-return TD and recovered a fumble.

They were knocking on the door for a 28-7 lead, one that possibly would’ve been insurmountable given the way the offense was playing. Then Leonard Williams did something insane. A 92-yard pick-six by a 310lbs defensive lineman. It’s one of the best plays I’ve seen by a Seattle defender and I’m sure many of you will agree. It changed the game.

In the last two weeks, Williams has recorded 4.5 sacks, six TFL’s, two pass deflections, six QB hits, one interception returned for a TD and he blocked a PAT. I can’t remember a more dominant two-game stretch by a Seahawks defender. It’s beautiful.

His big play seemed to galvanise the defense. They shut-out the Jets in the second half, allowing Seattle’s offense multiple opportunities to avoid bumbling their way to points. With a generous Jets performance, gifting back-breaking penalties at vital moments, they did just enough to secure a third straight win.

The run game and offense in general, however, remains a concern. They can’t run. They can’t get a yard when they need one, with multiple attempts to get it. The red zone offense is horrendous. Geno Smith is having a bit of a stretch here with quite average play overall. The O-line continues to be the O-line.

Nothing about today will quell the growing concern about Ryan Grubb’s fit as offensive coordinator. He needs to get things worked out pronto, as does Jay Harbaugh on special teams.

The defense led by Mike Macdonald is fun and exciting to watch. They are physical and tough and winning at the line of scrimmage, led by the unstoppable Williams.

Can they get a bit of help?

Nevertheless, it was good to reminisce about the crazy close games of yesteryear — and enjoy another win for the Seahawks.

Curtis Allen’s week thirteen watch notes (vs NY Jets)

December 1, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Every game is a discovery process for fans. Coaches, players and analysts can talk about what the team does well and what it needs to work on both in the short-term and long-term but the game on the field reveals what the team truly needs to work on.

In 2024, we have discovered several things about the Seahawks.

The run defense early on was atrocious. They made some personnel changes and with time and perseverance things fell into place, culminating in a dominant performance last week.

The offensive line has been a problem from Week One. The return of Abe Lucas and an adequate couple of games by Olu Oluwatimi have eased those concerns.

And so on.

I would argue this game may be a real pivot point for this Seahawks franchise. It may well provide valuable answers about what enhancements the team needs to make this coming off-season.

Why? What will we learn about the Seahawks from their game this week against the Jets?

A Brief Look at the Jets’ Last Eight Games

The Jets have tumbled badly from a team that had ‘this is our year’ aspirations to dismissing their Head Coach and General Manager mid-season. They’re currently on a 1-8 run. Even for an organization as dysfunctional as the Jets, this is bad.

How are offenses attacking the talented Jets defense? Have a look at this quick chart of those nine games:

Only one team ran out a game plan that disproportionately favored the pass and they paid a heavy price for it. The Jets dominated the Texans’ poor Offensive Line, sacking C.J. Stroud eight times and forcing twelve bad throws. Stroud ended the day 11-for-30 and abandoned the pocket to run for his life seven times as the Jets defeated Houston.

Indeed, New York’s pass defense is the best in the NFL with only eight passing touchdowns conceded in eleven games. They are second-best in the NFL in terms of passing yards conceded.

In this stretch, the winning teams rolled out a game plan that evenly split passes and throws. Even when they did not have tremendous success running the ball, they stayed committed to it and kept the Jets’ pass rush at bay – and helped force the game into Aaron Rodgers’ less than capable hands (more on that in a moment).

The point we can learn about the Seahawks in this game is both obvious and subtle: Can they run effectively enough to achieve an even balance of play calls – something we have consistently discussed all season?

And if not, can they design and execute passing plays that keep Geno Smith upright and clean enough to carry the offense with a minimum of mistakes?

A positive answer to either of those questions is essential to success in this match.

But it will require something we have not seen from this team yet this year. The Seahawks have not yet run a 50/50 split of passes and run plays and they have yet to reach the average of 31 run plays called that those seven teams did against the Jets. The passing offense – while occasionally dazzling – has been struggling to carry the burden.

Again, it is not necessarily about gaining yards on the ground as it is a mechanism to allow the passing game to operate functionally.

Have a look at the highlights of Indianapolis’ win against New York two weeks ago.

After a beautiful crosser to Josh Downs, we see Anthony Richardson run a Run-Pass Option three plays in a row with Jonathan Taylor. The first two, Taylor is given the ball and gains good yardage. The third, Richardson keeps it. The aggressive Jets defense has been primed to stop Taylor and the Colts run a clever play that has Kylen Granson run across the formation. The edge defender prepares for a block but Granson runs free and is wide open for an easy catch that Richardson just slightly overthrows.

The next series (about 1:25 in the video) you see them running it again. Richardson fakes to Taylor, Taylor releases and is wide open but the play action has opened the middle for a nice throw to Michael Pittman before the pass rush can get home. On the next play, Josh Downs slips behind the line and runs away from his defender on a cross for an easy catch and run pass. That completion that looks very much like what the Seahawks have run with Jaxon Smith-Njigba of late.

Downs nearly scores on the play. But on the next play, what do the Colts call? A misdirection run with Taylor leading the way where Richardson has the open field to use his size and speed to score.

These sequences keep repeating throughout the game. It is a successful strategy and they rarely deviate from it.

Yet it by no means makes the game very easy for the Colts. If you watch the whole highlights package, you will see Richardson needing to think on his feet and get away from the pass rush (sometimes unsuccessfully, as he was sacked twice).

Richardson’s final stat line is one we all would love to have: 20-for-30 for 272 yards, one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He was only pressured six times for an easily workable 18.8% rate. Richardson’s Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt? 10.5 yards per attempt – a sign that despite a fierce pass rush, the Colts were able to throw much more than just short quick passes and dump offs.

Balancing the pass with the run, picking their spots and giving their quarterback open looks and taking advantage of his natural talents, they found a way to score points on this tough defense.

The Colts (and the other teams before them) have found a way to use the Jets’ aggressive defense against them.

So, the question is – will the Seahawks try to roll out the same kind of game plan we have seen of late? One where Geno Smith is required to sit in the pocket and make himself a target for pass rush hits and have constant pressure exerted on him. That paired with a relatively unimaginative run game could spell real trouble for the Seahawks today.

This week, Mike Macdonald offered statements of support that the running game is coming together. Will it coalesce into something more than a bland tool used in a half-hearted attempt to keep the defense honest? Or will Geno Smith once again be counted on to win them the game while under enormous pressure?

And if that is the case, will Ryan Grubb and Macdonald at least give Smith a package of plays that are effective quick passes? Or have him use his legs to move the pocket and give himself time?

Or will they roll out the same offense we have seen that is seemingly indifferent to the poor quality of the offensive line? One that is relying on near-constant Geno Smith magic to make it work?

We will see.

If there is one team the offense should just pin their ears back and commit to the running game, this is it. We have been talking about it for weeks. The coaching staff have all acknowledged it as a necessity.

But what we see today might point the way toward the future of this offense.

Defend Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is 41 years old and coming off a major knee injury suffered last season. When you combine that with a battered and bruised Jets Offensive Line and you have a player who is not what he once was.

The Jets have taken all of this into account and have designed an offense that, for the most part, keeps Rodgers healthy and upright, while not relying too much on his diminishing mobility.

How? They have him getting rid of the ball more quickly, throwing shorter passes then he ever has in his career.

Three years ago we discussed this strategy put in place for Rodgers by then-coach Matt LaFluer:

“Rodgers’ field of targets has been slowly pulled back by LaFluer, so he quickly gets the ball out closer to the line of scrimmage. The Packers employ a generous amount of creativity getting the receivers open, so Rodgers avoids the pass rush by reading the defense, communicating with his receivers pre-snap and making a quick throw.

The defensive backs and linebackers must be ready to close quickly on receivers in the flat. If they can limit these plays to just a couple yards per attempt — and even occasionally make a tackle for loss — that reduces that option’s effectiveness and makes Rodgers look for his second and third reads.

When he does, the pass rushers must be ready to pounce and provide pressure.

If they can get pressure with their standard package, that will allow them to have one more defender patrolling that five-to-fifteen-yard pocket downfield and keep Rodgers from turning a potentially negative-yardage play into something spectacular.”

At the time I wrote those words, Rodgers was throwing at a career-low 7.7 Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt.

In 2024? He has gone to a far lower number at 6.6 air yards per attempt.

It is not necessarily that he no longer has the arm to throw deeper. Just ask the Texans.

It is his age, his legs and his lack of protection that is driving this scheme.

The Seahawks did a terrific job containing Kyler Murray and James Conner in the running game last Sunday, forcing them out of their comfort zone and allowing the Seahawks to control the game.

They can do exactly the same thing by not allowing yards after the catch on these short throws and using their emerging Defensive Linemen against a battered Jets Offensive Line to put constant pressure on Rodgers.

If you watch the highlight reel above against the Colts, you will see what I am describing. Dump offs to Breece Hall, quick throws to Garrett Wilson and throwing at Davante Adams whenever he is not smothered in coverage are the bulk of his game now.

Getting pressure applied with a standard package, mixing in a timely blitz and keeping themselves between receivers and the end zone will provide a clear path to once again controlling the contest.

Some thoughts on one of the big off-season talking points for the Seahawks

November 28, 2024 /

One way or another something has to give in the off-season. The Seahawks are $14.5m in the red in terms of effective cap space per Overthecap.com and will need to free-up a significant amount of money. There are some obvious ways to do this. Tyler Lockett is not going to be getting a $30.8m cap hit next season. Moving on saves $17m. Cutting Noah Fant creates $9m. Chipping away at the roster with several moves, though, will only create holes that need to be filled.

There are two big decisions that will have the most impact on Seattle’s cap space.

D.K. Metcalf has one year left on his deal. He is going to be extended or traded in the off-season, it’s as simple as that. I don’t think the Seahawks have any intention of trading him and suspect they’ll get something done. I get the sense they view Metcalf as a rare physical talent with good production and will not want to part ways, with the saving on Lockett justifying a new deal for D.K. Realistically they can cut his 2025 cap hit in half with an extension, saving about $15m.

Geno Smith is the other big call. His cap hit is currently $38.5m. That will grow by $2m when he ticks off any of the following escalators:

— Passing Yards (4,282)
— Passing Touchdowns (30)
— Completion % (69.755)
— Passer Rating (100.874)
— Wins (10) or a Playoff Berth

On his current pace, he is projected to record 4,690 passing yards. The Seahawks are also leading the NFC West. Winning the division will mean he hits the playoff escalator. His completion percentage is currently 69.1%, so that is in play. He’s only projected to record 19 touchdowns and his passer rating is only 88.5.

Therefore, it’s almost certain he’ll reach at least one escalator, taking his cap hit to $40.5m. It’s not improbable he’ll reach two more, pushing his deal to $44.5m and putting Seattle further in the red (20.5m).

If he does hit the three escalators, his 2025 cap-hit would be eighth highest among quarterbacks, above Lamar Jackson ($43.6m) and Josh Allen ($43.2m) while being just below Joe Burrow ($46.3m).

It’s far from the worst situation — Cleveland owes Deshaun Watson $72.09m next year and the Saints have Derek Carr on a $51.4m cap hit. I would suggest, however, that the Seahawks will not be giving Smith $38-44m in 2025. They will either extend his contract or move on and seek an alternative — if for no other reason than simply needing to create cap space.

It’s extremely plausible they will extend Smith’s deal, possibly by adding two more years, allowing them the flexibility to lower his 2025 cap hit. This would enable the Seahawks to secure their short-term future at quarterback, given Smith is now 34-years-old. They would likely structure the contract the same way they did with his last deal signed in 2023, providing easy annual outs for the team and incentives for Smith to succeed.

This would also give the Seahawks more time to start drafting and developing future successors. There’s no point pretending Smith’s age isn’t a factor. If they extend his deal, they’ll be looking for players they can groom for the future.

The problem might be Smith’s willingness to negotiate. His representatives will no doubt go to the Seahawks and point to Kirk Cousins’ $45m a year contract in Atlanta with $90m guaranteed. If they set the bar that high, the Seahawks are probably going to scoff at the proposal. Cousins got that deal as a free agent, with the ability to leverage different parties. He didn’t get that contract from the Vikings the year prior. They let him test the market. Thus, it’s not a comparable situation.

Really it’s no different than Damien Lewis’ free agent experience. He was never getting a big contract after three years with the Seahawks but on the open market? He won big by being able to test the market.

The issue teams face when a player is still contracted is you end up bidding against yourself. When Smith was a free agent last year, he was able to establish his market before agreeing terms on what ended up being a team-friendly contract. You’d imagine Smith will aim high in any negotiation this off-season, knowing he has a decent contractual situation for 2025 already secured.

Seattle’s biggest leverage play isn’t ideal. It’s the threat of trading him or cutting him. In that situation he’d have to weigh-up potentially going to an undesirable new team via trade or being in a situation where his market is cold again. That could nudge both parties to compromise on a new deal but it’d be quite an aggressive negotiating tactic.

Smith also has a hand to play. His people could say, ‘this is what we want, match it or we’ll play out the year’. That would be wise if he hits his escalators and the Seahawks succeed in making the playoffs. In that situation, Seattle would be left having to face the prospect of moving him on or accepting the situation (which would put them in a tricky financial position with the cap, making an extension far more appealing but ceding massive leverage in talks).

My guess is both parties should be able to find some common ground here. Smith genuinely seems to enjoy being in Seattle and the franchise has been good for him too.

However, the bigger question might be — is this what John Schneider wants?

That’s where Sam Darnold comes to mind.

Let me be clear before anyone bites my head off — I am not arguing that Darnold is better than Smith, or that the Seahawks should pursue Darnold and get rid of their current starter. This is something I’ve been considering writing about and I thought I’d look at the situation. So chill.

There’s been a lot of talk over the years about Schneider’s interest in Josh Allen back in 2018. He went to the Wyoming pro-day and people have reported he tried to trade up to the #1 pick that year with the aim of acquiring Allen.

It’s unclear whether he had much interest in Darnold but Schneider did attend his pro-day too, per Brady Henderson. I’m just saying — but maybe we’ve heard a lot about Schneider’s interest in Allen and not so much about interest in Darnold because one player has been a roaring success and until recently, the other hasn’t.

There was a bit of talk about the Seahawks trading for Darnold in 2021, when the Russell Wilson trade stuff was in its first flush. However, those reports mainly connected Pete Carroll with interest in the quarterback. Perhaps it’s something that was considered given this was around the time that Adam Schefter was reporting Wilson’s four-team trade wish-list.

Darnold has turned his career around in Minnesota, leading the team to a 9-2 record this season. If the Seahawks parted with Smith — either by trading or cutting him — they would save between $25-31m depending on the contract escalators.

It’s likely Darnold will be an in-demand free agent. However, I think his contract potential is only on a par with Baker Mayfield.

Here’s Mayfield’s deal structure:

2024 cap hit — $6.9m
2025 cap hit — $35.7m
2026 cap hit — $45.7m (can save $28.4m with an out this year)

In essence, the Buccaneers are only committed to Mayfield this year and next. They can get out of the deal in 2026 easily. Whether it’s with Smith or Darnold, the Seahawks will almost certainly want this kind of flexibility from next season.

Perhaps Smith would be willing to take the Mayfield contract? However, if he gets his deal beyond $40m for 2025 with the escalators, why would he extend his contract and not reach that amount again until 2026, with an out for the team before he gets there, unless the Seahawks pump major guarantees into the contract (which they may not wish to do)?

Ultimately if the Seahawks part with Smith, save between $25-31m in cap space, then only take on a $7m cap hit for Darnold in 2025, that’s a considerable saving while gaining the structure that they might want for the short-term future.

So what about Darnold? Is he only a one-hit wonder because he’s working with QB guru Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota? Quite possibly. However, let’s also remember he started his career with the hapless New York Jets. Then he was traded to the equally awful Carolina Panthers for a package including a second round pick. This was never the environment for success and after leaving Carolina, he decided to take stock of his career.

He spent a year as Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco in 2023 and is now excelling as a starter with Minnesota under O’Connell. His career might be more a reflection of environment than purely the impact of Minnesota’s coaching. Maybe if he’d started working with O’Connell and Kyle Shanahan, rather than working through two of the NFL’s worst run franchises, his career would’ve been totally different?

Let’s compare Smith and Darnold based on this season.

Their touchdown/interception ratios are starkly different. Darnold’s is 21/10 while Smith’s is 12/12. Many people would attribute this to Seattle’s terrible O-line so let’s dig a bit deeper there.

Smith has faced 177 total pressures this season compared to Darnold’s 140. They’re both in the top-10 in this category. Smith has been sacked 37 times compared to Darnold’s 31. Again, both marks are near the top.

PFF says Smith is responsible for nine of his pressures, with Darnold responsible for 14. Smith is responsible for four sacks compared to Darnold’s six. Smith has four self-inflicted hurries compared to Darnold’s five. Overall, fairly similar.

Now let’s look at where the pressure percentage of blame lies within both O-lines.

Here’s Minnesota’s positional breakdown:

LT — 23.9%
LG — 17.9%
C — 19.7%
RG — 25.6%
RT — 7.7%

Here’s Seattle’s:

LT — 21.8%
LG — 16.3%
C — 8.2%
RG — 21.8%
RT — 38.1%

Essentially what this says is the Seahawks have been a shambles at right tackle. With Abe Lucas back on the field, it’ll be interesting to see if Smith can find his best form the rest of the way.

Darnold has thrown 22 ‘big time throws’ this year compared to Smith’s 20. However, Smith only has 12 ‘turnover worthy plays’ compared to Darnold’s 17.

Darnold’s PFF grade is an 81.9 (ranked 9th). Smith’s is an 81.0 (ranked 12th).

Overall they’re both quite similar across the board. The big difference of course is age. Darnold turns 28 next June, with Smith turning 35 next October. A seven-year difference isn’t insignificant.

It really comes down to how much you want to invest in Darnold being a player who just needed a non-shambolic environment, instead of thinking he’s only succeeding because of his Head Coach. If he was able to perform at his 2024 level for the next few years, he’d be an excellent investment for any team without a long-term starter who isn’t expecting to pick in the top-10 any time soon.

With Smith there’s obviously a ‘better the devil you know’ aspect and he’s clearly respected in Seattle. That counts for something. Yet since his red-hot start in 2022 came to an end in Munich, he has a 47/29 TD/INT ratio and Seattle’s record with Smith as a starter is 17-17. Not that these statistics reflect only the performance of Smith (see: O-line) but they’re also the kind of numbers that will give a GM inclined to make a change the excuse to do so.

That’s what it comes back to. How committed is Schneider to Smith? After the non-committal press-conferences early in the year, the Adam Schefter quid-pro-quo trade tweet, the ‘he’s the starter until he isn’t’ quote. If Schneider believes someone like Darnold can provide a younger player who can perform, at worst, at a similar level, while providing financial relief in 2025, will he consider that option?

If I had to make a prediction today, I think the Seahawks are more likely to find common ground with their existing starter on a short-term extension — with Smith continuing in the role of Alex Smith in Kansas City while the team searches for a young heir-apparent who can be developed behind the scenes. I’ve always had the sense, though, that Schneider isn’t totally convinced by Smith and he might see Darnold as a shot worth taking. It will be fascinating how they approach this situation in a few weeks’ time.

The thing that will do Smith’s case the power of good will be to find his best form, as he did towards the end of last season, leading the team to the playoffs and then getting at least one post-season win. That would change the situation completely.

NFL Draft video with Curtis Allen and scouting notes for this week

November 27, 2024 /

In the video below Curtis Allen and I go through the 2025 draft class position-by-position, reviewing options and scenarios for the Seahawks. Draft notes for this week are underneath.

Draft notes from the weekend

Quinn Ewers vs Kentucky

Texas have developed a reputation for being quite an up-and-down team. Against Georgia they started badly and righted the ship (but had already dug themselves too big a hole). Against Florida they blew the Gators away before giving up some cheap points in the second half. Against Kentucky they looked great in the first half and fell away in the second.

There were numerous reasons for it. Ewers limped off the field at half-time after a defensive lineman landed on his right leg during a tackle. He was clearly hobbled, lost mobility and suffered in the second half as a consequence. Everything else collapsed too. The running backs fumbled. They muffed a punt and were lucky to get it back. It became messy.

Coming into the season the concerns about Ewers were consistency and health. I’m afraid these are still two big concerns. As soon as he picked up the abdominal injury early in the season he went from looking like a high first round talent to a mid-rounder. Even though he returned to the field, he hasn’t been healthy. Anyone can see that. Now he has a bad right ankle.

Credit to him for trying to play through all this, knowing it’s his final chance to showcase his talent in college. But as a NFL decision maker you’ll inevitably be left wondering — can he stay healthy? Is he going to be banged up all the time? Will his performance suffer as soon as he is?

Early in the game against Kentucky he was superb. He converted a 3rd and 11 throwing with anticipation. Then on a 4th and goal he created time in the pocket with his feet, waited for the tight end Gunner Helm to uncover and found him in the end zone. Ewers showed great poise and execution on the play and it was a great throw from an awkward angle.

After that we saw a brilliant layered anticipation touch pass with nine minutes left in the first half, on a drive that ended with points. The third touchdown drive saw an excellent red zone pass with touch, perfectly thrown to Helm — giving him a chance to go and get his second score:

The only downside in the first half was a missed wide-open crossing route before half-time meaning Texas had to settle for a late field goal. He didn’t come off his primary read and it was a blown opportunity. Other than that — a very effective first half.

His injury changed things. I still think the potential of Ewers is clear and evident in terms of arm talent. There are flashes of Aaron Rodgers in his arm and release. It is difficult, however, to say where NFL teams might feel comfortable taking him. I don’t think he’s a player who you draft to start right away. He does feel like the kind of player Green Bay would draft to develop, therefore I appreciate the Seahawks might feel the same way.

Apart from Ewers, I was really impressed with Texas center Jake Majors again. To me he’s everything you want in a center. On one key play on 3rd and 1 he subtly moved Deone Walker out of the way for a first down run with 7:30 to go in the game. I love the way he reached up to the second level and moved people off the LOS all night. He did have one mishap on a play that required him to pull across and block a penetrating defensive lineman and he didn’t get across in time but this isn’t a frequent play you demand of your center. Majors is really good — and a player with a bright NFL future.

Ole Miss vs Florida

The Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen has promised much but I’ve been left wanting more from him in games this season. Against Florida he was virtually unstoppable. He showed a great combination of quickness and burst to disrupt, registering four pressures, two sacks and a batted pass. He’s well sized to play three technique and while I doubt he comes into the league and is a consistent impact player, he certainly has the physical skill to be a decent rotational interior defender who can develop a broader role in time.

My main focus in the game though was quarterback Jackson Dart. I’ve been confused this season by the analysis of draft media, wondering what they’re seeing with certain players. Dart receiving first and second round predictions by some was baffling. He lacks the big arm, plays in a user-friendly offense and really has had one big game all year against Georgia — a contest where the Bulldogs were decidedly poor. For the season he has 27 total touchdowns and six interceptions. Last season he finished with 31 touchdowns and five picks. Considering his last game (unless he plays in a middling Bowl game) is against lowly Mississippi State, he might eclipse those numbers. Yet huge things were expected of Ole Miss this year and they haven’t delivered. There’s been no big step forward by the quarterback.

Against Florida it was what you’d expect from Lane Kiffin’s scheme — a lot of well structured completions and rhythm. Yet in the second half everything fell apart. They only scored three points after half-time against a Florida team that was blown away by Texas 49-17 two weeks ago. Dart, with two drives to get a game-tying touchdown, ended both with lousy interceptions. On the final back-breaking pick, it was already a second chance because another interception was called back on review.

For me he’s a day three quarterback. I don’t see him as a lofty high pick.

Kurtis Rourke vs Will Howard

I think Howard’s last three games have been his best. I was a fan when he was at Kansas State and thought he was a very useful mid-rounder and that going to Ohio State could really elevate his stock, as we’ve seen from other experienced quarterbacks in recent years. It hasn’t really happened — I don’t think his stock has changed much at all. But the last three games have been better with more consistency.

He was able to turn a 3rd and 35 into a conversion in the first quarter. On the first play he scrambled to his right to extend then threw a nice touch pass over two defenders to the right sideline for approximately 25 yards. On 4th and 10 he dropped from the gun, was hit as he threw and still delivered a pass over the defender to the sideline. He had to get the ball out quickly due to the pressure and he delivered nicely.

Overall he adjusted his arm angles well, moved around to create, showed a good arm and was able to fit the ball into tight windows. He does take some snaps under center. His interception should’ve been caught by the receiver and was bobbled into the air and picked off after the deflection. He’s big and can be a strong runner. After the game he spoke well and I enjoyed the little piss take that was caught on camera at the expense of Indiana’s outspoken coach Curt Cignetti. Quarterbacks need to have a little bit of bite and personality to them.

I’m not sure whether Howard will ever be a NFL starter but there’s something here to work with. He has the tools. If the Seahawks don’t take a quarterback early, he at least will provide a toolsy player to work with and try to develop in a draft range where they might want to add a QB.

Rourke started well. He had a great throw over the middle for a 3rd and 9 conversion early on, fitting the ball over one defender and in front of another. There was great zip on the pass, accuracy and timing — it was a NFL throw. He exploited a soft zone shortly after to convert a 3rd and 6 in the same sequence. This all culminated in an opening drive TD.

Looking at his final stat sheet I didn’t expect to be anything but underwhelmed but in fairness, Rourke had no chance in this game. He was sacked five times and pressured seven times. He suffered two drops. He didn’t throw a turnover worthy play in the game. He played well early, two special teams blunders blew the game open and then Indiana were out of rhythm. They schemed their runs well but couldn’t scheme for the passing game to work around the disadvantages up front, nor did they handle blitzing well.

The slight concern is I do think it speaks to Rourke’s lack of star power. Some QB’s can elevate their teams against the odds and Rourke simply isn’t that type. He’s not a big time athlete, capable of making it happen when everything else isn’t functioning. But neither should this game determine he’s no good or seriously impact his stock. He had no supporting cast and stood little chance of success once the game escalated either side of half-time. Rourke has a collection of impressive throws this season. He’s not a high pick but he’s certainly intriguing enough to consider at the start of day three.

Josaiah Stewart continues to shine

I’ll keep saying it — this is a guy to keep an eye on. Wink Martindale loves him. Martindale mentored Mike Macdonald. You can easily see him fitting into Seattle’s pass rush rotation. He’s such a dynamic edge rusher and has shown he can take over games.

He had two sacks at the weekend against Northwestern. The first isn’t a particularly great bend-and-straighten but his effort to fight through the block and finish is evident:

Stewart bullies the right tackle into the backfield on the second sack:

We can all embrace the need to fix the offensive line in Seattle but when you think back to the early days of the LOB era — they drafted Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner in 2012, then signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in 2013. It’s possible the Seahawks will continue to build up their defense with more talent over the next couple of years.

Only Marshall’s impressive edge rusher Mike Green has a better PFF grade than Stewart this year. He currently has eight sacks, 33 pressures, 18 QB hurries and seven QB hits. His pass rush win percentage (24.7%) continues to lead the NCAA. I think Stewart and Green (21.6% win percentage) could both have some appeal if the Seahawks add to their pass rush in the off-season.

Devin Neal shines against Colorado

What a performance by the Kansas running back. I immediately watched three more of his games after witnessing this display. He reminds me a lot of Rashaad Penny at San Diego State with his frame and shifty ability to accelerate.

His change of direction was unbelievable at times:

He has the build to get the tough yards inside but look at the quickness he shows here to bounce to the edge, turn upfield and make an explosive play:

The best backs exhibit patience in the backfield, the game slows for them and they use explosive cuts and subtle shifts of the body to create openings. Neal definitely showed that against Colorado:

He finished the game with 207 yards on 37 carries, scoring three touchdowns as a runner. He added 80 receiving yards on four catches plus another score. He has 740 yards after contact for the season — 16th most in the NCAA. He’s not in the Ashton Jeanty, Kaleb Johnson realm there. There’s still a lot to like though and it’s very easy to imagine him being featured in the NFL. His acceleration, thick frame, contact balance and ability to work to the edge then cut upfield will carry plenty of appeal for pro teams.

Final notes

— Harold Fannin Jr had another big game against Ball State, registering nine catches, 125 yards and a touchdown. He’s a good combine away from being a top-45 lock:

— Jalen Milroe started with big passing plays against Oklahoma but was awful the rest of the way. He made huge mistakes on turnovers. The Sooners took away the run and he couldn’t win as a passer. He’s not taken the steps many claim as a pocket passer and remains an outstanding athlete but not an outstanding QB. He can run around and make things happen and he has the arm strength to make eye-catching plays. But he’s limited in what he can do in the pocket, really limited.

— LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was sensational again, this time against Vanderbilt. Where would LSU be without him? He continues to make legit NFL throws every week and the truth is, even in the recent loss to Florida, he’s played very well. Should he really go back to LSU? For me he’s very much in the QB1 mix. He will go in the first round if he declares. Is another year with Brian Kelly that appealing? Only Shedeur Sanders has the capability of going before him and Nussmeier is the antithesis of all the baggage that comes with Shedeur and his father.

Why Ryan Grubb’s future might be in question unless Seattle’s running game improves

November 26, 2024 /

On the 30th October 2011, I travelled to Seattle from Vancouver to watch the Seahawks play the Bengals. They lost 34-12. It left the Seahawks with a 2-5 record and the future appeared pretty bleak. People were talking about ‘suck for (Andrew) Luck’. There was doubt about Pete Carroll, now one-and-a-half seasons into his NFL return. Where was this going?

A week later came the turning point. They went to Dallas to play the Cowboys, who had playoff ambitions. They lost 23-13 but the defense stepped up its game. They were tougher and harder to play against. An encouraging sign.

The following week they beat the Ravens (where this happened). Then they hammered the Rams. They blew a game against Washington before returning to form against the expensively acquired Eagles — destroying Howie Roseman’s ‘dream team’ roster in Prime Time. Big wins followed against the Rams (again) and Bears before two close losses ended the season on a slight dampener.

Either way, by the time the 2011 season concluded the Seahawks had established themselves as a developing force. The LOB era was coming together. They were a nightmare to play against. The foundations were there for future success.

I don’t think the 2024 group are quite at that stage yet — but it’s carrying a similar vibe. This is now three successive strong defensive performances. They may still drop the odd frustrating game between now and week 18, as they did against the Rams before the bye. But if the defense can continue playing at this level, it will provide similar hope for the future that the Seahawks can have another go at being a contender.

There are some things, though, that could hold them back.

Firstly — as important as the defense was during that 2011 season, Marshawn Lynch was arguably even more critical to their blossoming success. In Lynch, the Seahawks had a legit star. From the Dallas game until the end of the season — nine games in total — he ran for 941 yards and scored 10 total touchdowns.

The Seahawks couldn’t be further away from that level of running performance currently.

On Sunday against the Cardinals, every called run was a headache to watch. The O-line created no push up front. It felt like Ken Walker was exerting a ton of energy just to find a way back to the line of scrimmage. By the end the Seahawks had virtually given up running the ball — choosing to try and close out the game with Geno Smith.

It said it all that in a one-score game in the fourth quarter, in the rain, on the next series after Smith had thrown an ugly interception in the red zone, they came out throwing and nearly threw another back-breaking pick. Smith’s pass was inaccurate and luckily the Arizona player just couldn’t grab the ball before it hit the turf. What a let off.

Mark Sanchez on the commentary was practically yelling down his microphone telling them to run instead. What were they doing?

This is the thing holding back the Seahawks from generating even more excitement. In 2011 it would’ve been a classic ‘Beat Mode’ moment. A heavy dose of Lynch to finish off the contest, grinding out a long drive. The Seahawks don’t lack talent at running back but their total inability to run at any kind of level is holding them back. It didn’t cost them against Arizona but it could in future weeks.

I imagine this really bothers Mike Macdonald, a Harbaugh protégé. While he seems perfectly mild-mannered during interviews, the Brady Henderson article a few weeks ago uncovered an edge to Seattle’s Head Coach that isn’t outwardly expressed. He is delivering the kind of defense we’ve been waiting years to see — but the offense isn’t currently playing in a way to complement it.

If I had to guess, Macdonald probably feels like he won’t truly have delivered his vision for this team until the defense and running game go hand-in-hand. While the defense is progressing nicely, the running game is regressing at the same rate.

When you bring up the struggling run game, most people point to the O-line — which is fair enough. It was bad again against Arizona. It’s been bad all year. It needs major work.

Every single lineman received a bad run-blocking grade per PFF:

Olu Oluwatimi — 58.8
Christian Haynes — 58.2
Abe Lucas — 50.3
Charles Cross — 49.8
Laken Tomlinson — 40.1

However, this isn’t a problem exclusive to the Seahawks. A lot of teams have issues blocking. A lot of those teams still find ways to run the ball a lot more effectively than the Seahawks.

This tweet from Brock Huard was scathing in the review of Ryan Grubb’s inability to work out solutions to be able to find any semblance of running effectiveness — especially against a team in Arizona giving up 121.8 rushing yards per game (the Seahawks managed just 65 yards):

When I’ve discussed Grubb recently there’s been a lot of sympathetic replies in the direction of Seattle’s OC. Again, the O-line is a huge problem. We can all see that. Yet as Huard notes above, why are they so incapable of working around this to produce any kind of ground success?

I do think it’ll bring Grubb’s position into question at the end of the season unless things change. The most important thing for Macdonald as a young, first-time Head Coach is to have everything aligned to create his vision. Yes, a new staff needs time. At what cost though? Wasting time? Failing to have everything connected? At the end of the season they’ll need to decide whether Grubb can produce an offense to complement Macdonald’s developing defense. At the moment, you have to wonder whether they’re philosophically aligned — and if they aren’t, a change is very likely.

You can’t have a close game like Sunday where you’re winning for the majority of the contest, in bad weather, and you have 39 throwing situations and only 22 runs by your running backs. The Seahawks are attempting 37 passes per game, fifth most in the NFL. Their 22.6 rushing attempts per game are fifth fewest. This is not typical for a team led by a defensive-minded coach, coming from a Ravens/Michigan background.

How much of this is necessity and how much of it is indicative of philosophy and preference? If the Seahawks add two quality offensive linemen in the off-season, will the numbers above flip in terms of run/pass ratio? Or is Ryan Grubb always going to lean towards an aggressive passing offense?

Reports earlier this year suggested Arthur Smith was slated to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator if he got a Head Coaching gig — but Baltimore’s playoff run delayed things and he didn’t want to end up out of work, so took the Steelers job. Pittsburgh is currently running the ball 34.3 times a game, second most in the NFL. They’re passing 28.4 times a game, second fewest.

The Steelers’ O-line isn’t grading particularly well and they’ve suffered key injuries to Troy Fautanu and James Daniels. Broderick Jones (53.2) and Mason McCormick (55.9) are playing poorly according to PFF, although Dan Moore Jr (71.0), Isaac Seumalo (69.7) and Zach Frazier (77.4) are fairing better but not at a spectacular grading level. Pittsburgh’s average grade for their five offensive linemen is a 65.4. That’s the exact same average as the five players who started for Seattle against the Cardinals.

The Steelers are finding a way to produce a ground game that is ranked eighth in the league. Seattle’s is ranked 28th.

It wasn’t an ideal situation to have a Head Coach accepting a job just before the Super Bowl, when the coordinator pool was already diminished. That’s no fault of Seattle’s, it’s just the way this thing works. They clearly interviewed a few people — speaking to the likes of Eric Bienemy, Tanner Engstrand and Grubb and seemingly trying to see if they could get Mike Kafka out of the Giants. Chip Kelly’s name was mentioned too. Going with Grubb, who’d been part of an inspired effort at the University of Washington, was a decent roll of the dice.

However, it might simply be that he isn’t going to be able to align an offense to match Macdonald’s vision. We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks. If the running game continues to stumble like it is at the moment, I suspect we might see a change. The Seahawks gig could be attractive too — you’d have full control of the offense and getting things right could lead to big opportunities in the future.

Pete Carroll accepted after the 2010 season that Jeremy Bates wasn’t aligned to his vision for the team and he made a change — bringing in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell as co-coordinators. Macdonald might make a similar change.

Could they target a fired Head Coach (Doug Pederson? Brian Daboll?), go back to their original list (Mike Kafka? Tanner Engstrand? Chip Kelly?) or review new names? Scottie Montgomery is Associate Head Coach and looks after the running backs in Detroit. They’re doing pretty well. Marcus Brady is Jim Harbaugh’s passing-game coordinator in LA. Will Klint Kubiak be available, New Orleans’ somewhat highly rated offensive coordinator? Is Josh McCown ready for an opportunity after spending a year with Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota? Do they go internal with someone like Jake Peetz for the sake of familiarity?

Or do they retain faith in Grubb working this out and instead focus on fixing the offensive line? Is that merely enough?

Let’s not forget, the Seahawks didn’t have a great O-line in 2011 but they ran effectively. In the 2012 off-season, they were able to use their first two draft picks on Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner to take the defense to another level. It’d be beneficial not to be handcuffed to O-line draft picks and have the flexibility to keep adding to the defense if they can — either by finding veteran answers in free agency or by having a staff that can get more juice out of the players they already have (although I still think there are worthy O-liners in the 2025 class who could and should be targeted).

I think a few coaching tweaks will happen in the off-season regardless of Grubb’s future. That should be expected now that Macdonald and John Schneider have had a year to assess. At the end of the year, though, short of a really good run to finish the season, I think the future of the offensive coordinator will be one of the top three storylines — along with how they address the offensive line and what they do with the contract situations involving D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith.

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