Time permitting, I’m going to put out another mock tomorrow. And it’s starting to look like an interesting top ten this year.
More than one team is going to be pining for Johnny Manziel. Some will prefer the ‘safer’ bet of Teddy Bridgewater — while others will find some appeal in Blake Bortles’ physical upside.
Manziel is the real playmaker. The exciting prodigy who defies convention and may just have enough magic to lift a perennial struggler.
It’s going to be tough to work out which might see him that way. Some of the potential buyers are in the midst of appointing new coaches. The hires in Cleveland, Minnesota and Tennessee will give us a better indication of who might be willing to think outside of the box.
Bill O’Brien in Houston has roots within an orthodox passing offense and might prefer a more traditional pocket passer. Lovie Smith going to Tampa Bay should put the focus on defense and prove good news for Mike Glennon (who really deserves a shot to keep his starting role).
Cleveland is the one to monitor the closest. Their reported interest in Josh McDaniel is interesting. He has the same roots as O’Brien — yet when given the opportunity to draft his guy in Denver, he chose Tim Tebow.
Clearly he isn’t afraid of a challenge.
You can kind of see him embracing the idea of Manziel. The Browns — like the Raiders — need a lift. Whether that’s by taking a gamble on a talented yet flawed player remains to be seen.
They both need something — or someone — to believe in.
And it’s so enticing to consider the possibility of Manziel scrambling around and throwing downfield to Josh Gordon.
I’m almost certain he’ll go in the top ten — probably even the top five. Cleveland is just one possible home.
How the other two QB’s fit in will also be of some interest. Bridgewater will have his admirers — but is he more Sam Bradford than Andrew Luck or Cam Newton?
Teams who have suffered through poor quarterback play recently might appreciate a steady eddie, even if others favour the X-Factor of Manziel.
I think Bridgewater, more than Manziel or Bortles, needs to land on a team with a structure. He isn’t necessarily the type of guy to lift a franchise on his own — but like Alex Smith in Kansas City — he might be the glue that brings everything together.
That could appeal to the Texans, who have plenty of talent on offense (Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, DeAndre Hopkins).
I need to spend more time on Bortles (it’s not a big priority right now — Seattle has a QB). It’s hard not to admire his physical upside — the height, arm and mobility. But he also shows some of the same mental errors we see with Ryan Tannehill — limited reads, throwing blind, poor decisions and forcing too many throws.
Tannehill is a bit overrated for me. Mike Sherman — his former college coach and recently fired offensive coordinator — has taken a lot of the blame. It hasn’t helped playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Yet the thought of Tannehill leading a team into a deep playoff run still seems fanciful.
He went #8 overall in 2012 and that seems like the kind of range Bortles will go. Teams are willing to invest in potential and Bortles passes the eye test. He’ll no doubt have a great off-season. And working in his favour will be the lack of options after he’s off the board.
I know a lot of people want to force Derek Carr into the first round, but I just don’t see it.
If the top three QB’s go in the top ten, that might be it for round one. Bortles might be seen as a last chance for some teams to come away with a quarterback they can build around.
Auburn’s brilliant offensive tackle Greg Robinson declared today. He’s better than all three of the offensive tackles who went in the top five a year ago. This year he could go as high as #2. He’s a stud — pure and simple. And a better overall prospect than Jake Matthews — who also seems assured of a place in the top ten.
It’s a deep year for offensive tackles and while it remains a premium position, we’re likely to see plenty going off the board early. Don’t rule out Cyrus Kouandjio as a top ten pick, even if he struggled in the Sugar Bowl. Tennessee’s Antonio Richardson is another player who could rise quickly.
We all know about Jadeveon Clowney — and he could be an option to go #1 overall if Houston finds a quarterback elsewhere.
Anthony Barr gets a lot of praise — he’s a great athlete but needs to make several technical improvements to warrant such a high investment. It still seems likely he’ll go early — there are some similarities to Dion Jordan, who was the #3 pick last year.
Then you have the top-tier receivers — and this is a great class as we’ve discussed. We’ll have to see if Mike Evans and Marqise Lee can crack the top-ten — but Sammy Watkins looks like a lock to go that early.
Possible top-ten players in the 2014 draft:
Jadeveon Clowney
Johnny Manziel
Greg Robinson
Sammy Watkins
Anthony Barr
Jake Matthews
Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles
Mike Evans
Marqise Lee
Zach Miller, terrific player -- but possible sacrificial lamb?
Could drafting a tight end in round one actually be one of the most productive moves this team makes in 2014?
Let’s call it addition by subtraction.
You might have to cut one popular veteran as a consequence. But it could help you keep two or three others.
Let’s start by discussing Zach Miller.
Statistically he hasn’t put up big numbers in Seattle, despite signing a $34m contract in 2011.
In Oakland he was the #1 target in the passing game. He had 2268 receiving yards in his final three years with the Raiders — an average of 756 per season.
In his three years with the Seahawks so far, that production has halved. He has just 1016 yards and a single-season best of 396 in 2012.
It’d be easy to look at that and say it’s underwhelming. I’d argue strongly against that. It only takes a little digging to find out how unfair it’d be to compare those statistics.
For starters, his touchdown production is almost exactly the same. He has eight TD’s in three seasons with Seattle. He had nine scores in his final three years in Oakland.
So right off the bat, he’s no less of a scoring threat.
Here’s the difference in targets between the two three-year spells:
Clearly he has a different role these days. The Raiders made him a primary target. In Seattle, within a much more balanced attack, that isn’t the case.
He’s also been a key blocking force in a scheme he’s very familiar with. Let’s not underestimate how important that has been — particular during the 2011 and 2013 seasons when the Seahawks suffered multiple injuries at offensive tackle.
When called upon, Miller has been an extremely reliable safety net for Russell Wilson. I see no reason why that’ll change any time soon. He’s only just turned 28, so he has time on his side.
You can make a pretty strong case to argue Zach Miller has been a terrific addition to this team — even without the big stats to back it up.
There is a ‘but’, however…
Miller is far from an elite player. He isn’t a big time difference maker.
His contract suggests he should be.
The most expensive player on Seattle’s 2013 roster was — you guessed it — Zach Miller.
And it wasn’t even close.
His $11m salary was $1.5m more expensive than #2 on the list — Russell Oking ($9.5m). Marshawn Lynch at #3 accounted for $2.5m LESS than Miller.
Rob Gronkowski’s cap hit in 2013 was $2.75m having recently signed an 8-year $55m mega-deal in New England. That steadily increases as you’d expect. Yet during the entire course of that contract, he doesn’t top Miller’s 2013 salary until 2019 ($11.25m cap hit) — the final year of the deal.
Even with Miller’s contract dropping to a $7m cap hit in 2014, he’ll still earn $1.6m more than Gronkowski next season.
As much as I appreciate the job he’s done in Seattle, his attitude and contribution to this young team — he’s simply earning far too much for a tight end who hasn’t topped 400 yards in three seasons.
In comparison, a tight end drafted in the #28-34 region could be expected to earn around $1.25m as a rookie and $1.5m as a second year player.
That’s a huge difference.
You can save $5m by cutting Miller ($7m cap hit, $2m in dead money). So you’re talking about a $4m overall saving by replacing him with one of the tight ends in this rookie class.
That’s money that could go towards keeping Golden Tate and/or Michael Bennett.
It really comes down to determining just how valuable you believe the 28-year-old is to the offense, compared to how effective a rookie can be as an immediate starter.
Would the production substantially decrease? Arguably not, given Miller had just 387 yards in 14 starts in 2013.
Would you miss his ability as a blocker? Absolutely, but not as much as you’ll miss Bennett rushing the passer or Tate making plays at receiver.
Can the rookie become a reliable safety net? Debatable.
Could you significantly upgrade the position within the four year rookie contract? Possibly — if you pick the right guy.
You’d have to expect some growing pains. But the Seahawks have shown they’re willing to go through that (see: Michael Robinson/Derrick Coleman — even if they eventually brought Robinson back).
We’ve spent the last few months discussing difficult cuts that are forthcoming. They’re unavoidable. Fan favourites are going to be moving on. It’s about keeping together the most important pieces of the puzzle (Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Lynch) and filling in the gaps.
You could counter by arguing if you cut Miller, what guarantee is there that your guy will be sat there waiting in the back end of the first round?
Thankfully, there are insurance policies at hand.
Luke Willson has shown promise. Perhaps not enough promise to be a full-time starter next season, but at least enough to see his role expand in year two.
Fred Davis is likely to be a free agent. It went sour very quickly in Washington for Davis, but he has history with Pete Carroll and could be available for a bargain price.
Anthony McCoy will return to health — and I think he’s done at least enough to justify another camp if there aren’t any takers elsewhere.
You could go into the draft with all three on your roster and it wouldn’t break the bank. If you then draft a tight end in round one, just let the competition begin — keep three and cut the unlucky loser.
The Seahawks should be looking for a big target for Russell Wilson. Ideally that comes in the form of a tall receiver who can develop into a true #1.
Perhaps they see enough upside in Brandon Coleman or Kelvin Benjamin to justify an early pick?
Both have legitimate upside and #1 potential, but they also have serious technical improvements to make and would carry a degree of risk.
Are they first round picks? Some will think so, others won’t.
There will be options beyond the first round. Donte Moncrief, Cody Hoffman and Martavis Bryant could all be available later depending on how well they test.
Hey — I’m assuming Coleman and Benjamin won’t be there in round two. Stranger things have happened.
Really there’s nothing to stop the Seahawks going TE/WR in the first two rounds. Those hoping for offensive line depth won’t be happy, but making savings elsewhere (eg by cutting Rice, Clemons and Miller) will increase the chances of holding onto Breno Giacomini.
It won’t be a disaster (at least in my view) if James Carpenter, Alvin Bailey and Michael Bowie are fighting to start at left guard in 2014.
Getting a big tight end and a big receiver in the first two rounds would put a lot more size (and talent) on the field for Wilson.
I’d argue that’ll have a much bigger impact than drafting a guard in a pretty mediocre year at the position.
So what about the candidates at tight end that could make this a justifiable move?
Unless there’s a big mover on the cards, it looks like there are three first round options:
Eric Ebron – North Carolina
Athletic, former basketball player and the type of tight end the NFL is looking for. Everyone wants a big target that can get around the field and create a mismatch. On tape he’s made some dazzling plays this year — one handed grabs, 60-yard runs after the catch. This is usually the time where a blogger or pundit says his blocking isn’t great. Cut the crap. How many times do we have to hear that? The NFL has changed. Tight ends need to look like this. I’m not going to mark Ebron down for his blocking. Coach him up. It simply isn’t a good enough reason not to draft him in the top-20. And ultimately, I expect that’s where he’ll go.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Washington
Former big time recruit who generated interest from Alabama, Florida, USC and Texas before committing to home-state Washington. ASJ maybe didn’t max-out his potential with the Huskies, but there’s no denying his potential. Carroll/Schneider have always been interested in physical difference makers and big time high school recruits. He’s more of a traditional tight end, but so is Miller. How fast is he? That’s going to be crucial. He doesn’t have to run a 4.6, he just has to avoid running a 4.8. Easier said than done at 266lbs. I like him though — and I believe he can turn into a very productive NFL tight end.
Jace Amaro – Texas Tech
I’m still trying to work out Amaro. He’s listed at 255lbs, but looks big. At least as big as ASJ. He isn’t incredibly mobile or shifty, but out of the three listed here he’s probably the one I’d prefer to go to for a third down conversion. At times I’m not convinced he’s much more than an above average tight end working in an ultra-productive passing game. Then you see him put up 136 yards against West Virginia, 174 against Oklahoma State and 119 against Oklahoma — and all three teams knew where the ball was going. They couldn’t stop him. I want to believe. Bring on the combine, let’s see how athletic he really is.
After these three, it’s not much of a group. But you don’t get many deep TE classes.
You could argue it’d provide the best value in the 28-32 range where Seattle will draft.
Think about it. At that point Austin Seferian-Jenkins might be the best player available. Ditto Jace Amaro. Ebron will be long gone, but the other two could be there.
Why fight the board?
It’s something else to consider.
So let’s sum up what we’re talking about doing here….
Cut
Zach Miller, Sidney Rice and Chris Clemons.
Total savings
$19m (approx) – $7m Rice, $7m Clemons and $5m Miller
Re-sign
Michael Bennett, Golden Tate and Breno Giacomini
Draft
Tight end in round one (eg Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jace Amaro) and, board permitting, a tall receiver in round two.
The Seahawks need to find a way to keep Bennett and Tate (and possibly Giacomini). They need to do it — in my opinion — without thinning the defense by cutting guys like Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane.
Miller might be a sacrificial lamb in this instance. But it could be necessary.
And this is before we even get into finding a way to extend Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas’ contracts — two nigh on certainties on the horizon.
I’m not saying this is what they should do. It’s merely a proposal.
With the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles and Packers exiting the post season, the 2014 draft order is now confirmed from picks 1-24.
A dramatic weekend also raised a number of questions for the teams involved.
Andy Dalton had another playoff horror show against San Diego — enduring a second half meltdown to turn the ball over three times. He’s now 0-3 in the post season.
The Bengals have an uber talented team with pretty much everything you’d want in a contender. Great defense, elite playmakers on offense, good offensive line.
They could be better at corner — and wasted a pick on the overrated Dre Kirkpatrick in 2012. But that’s not holding them back.
Dalton is.
Seattle dodged a bullet in 2011 if you believe the rumours that John Schneider had a lot of interest in drafting him at #25, only to be overruled by Pete Carroll.
He has purple patches in a season — but they’re usually followed by calamitous reality checks.
Today should be the biggest reality check of them all. Dalton isn’t good enough to lead the Bengals to the Championship they’re capable of winning.
Really they should be looking for an alternative in the 2014 draft. This is the final year of his rookie deal — and you really don’t want to be paying him an inflated contract right now. Draft a little competition for him in round 2/3 and let him fight for a future. Hey, I’d consider taking a quarterback in round one if the right player was there.
I doubt it even gets considered. The Bengals ownership give off a satisfied vibe. Contending is enough, as long as they make a profit. They never push the boat out. Today actually gives them some leverage to low-ball Dalton and tie him up for another 3-4 years.
If that happens, Cincinnati will always be nearly men. Expect them to target a cornerback at #24 like Justin Gilbert or Darqueze Dennard.
The Chiefs face a slightly different conundrum.
Alex Smith is solid if unspectacular and he can lead an offense. But he’s also approaching 30 and due another contract after the 2014 season.
Is it time for Kansas City to plan ahead? Or do they re-sign Smith now and make him their guy for the next few years?
They have enough talent across the board to be really competitive as we’ve seen this season. But they’re also in a window and fighting in a division that contains Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.
I don’t think they’ll use the #23 pick on a QB this year, but it might be worth adding one in the middle rounds so there’s some long term thinking in place. I can definitely see them looking at a tight end in round one — such as Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Jace Amaro.
The Eagles just need to concentrate on their defense. There’s too many stop gaps across the board.
Whether it’s a pass rusher off the edge, a corner or a safety — the Eagles have to go defense at #22. I like Virginia defensive end/tackle Brent Urban as an under-the-radar option for Philly. Chip Kelly loves length and athleticism on defense and Urban ticks all the right boxes. They really need to find a safety from somewhere, though.
Green Bay fans probably wish they could draft a new defensive coordinator.
While Aaron Rodgers could use better protection and maybe another receiver — the Packers need to take some of the strain off Rodgers and the offense.
Getting some speed at linebacker and safety would be a major help. But it’ll all go to waste if they keep Dom Caper’s outdated schemes.
C.J. Mosley would be a great choice for the Pack if he’s around at #21.
The Seahawks cannot pick any higher than #28 overall. Even if both Seattle and Denver lose next week, the Broncos get the #27 selection due to an easier strength of schedule.
There were also some interesting declarations today. Blake Bortles (QB, UFC) is turning pro, along with Oregon wide out De’Anthony Thomas. Sammy Watkins made it official today and tight end Jace Amaro is heading for the NFL.
We’re going to see more and more underclassmen turning pro due to the new CBA. It’s become a race to get a second contract, because the rookie deals are nowhere near what they used to be. The sooner you get started, the sooner you get paid.
More talent entering the draft helps the Seahawks, of course, given they’ll be drafting so late in each round.
So here’s what the first frame looks like so far:
1. Houston Texans
2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Oakland Raiders
6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Detroit Lions
11. Tennessee Titans
12. New York Giants
13. St. Louis Rams
14. Chicago Bears
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16 or 17. Baltimore Ravens
16 or 17. Dallas Cowboys
18. New York Jets
19. Miami Dolphins
20. Arizona Cardinals
21. Green Bay Packers
22. Philadelphia Eagles
23. Kansas City Chiefs
24. Cincinnati Bengals
That’s their reward for knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles 26-24 today.
Seattle won the last meeting 34-7 in week 13 by building an early lead and dominating on defense.
Russell Wilson also had his best game of the season.
The Saints keyed in on stopping Marshawn Lynch, which helped Wilson considerably.
We’ll see if they come with a different plan next week — considering they could be without each of their starting defensive backs.
At times tonight Nick Foles had 6-7 seconds in the pocket and made them pay. Rob Ryan’s defense was nearly impenetrable in the first half, but struggled badly in the second as the injuries stacked up.
The pass rush was pretty non-existent and only had success when Foles pushed his luck.
It was interesting to see how easy the read-option fooled the Saints, even with a slower-than-average quarterback handing it off to LeSean McCoy.
In the week 13 meeting Wilson was Seattle’s leading rusher with 47 yards (Lynch managed 45, Robert Turbin 34).
New Orleans ran the ball well today, something they struggled to do against the Seahawks. They managed a paltry 44 total rushing yards.
Taking the run away again next week will be crucial — even if limiting Drew Brees remains the greatest challenge.
How do you do that? Tight coverage, get the pass rush rolling, limit the damage with Jimmy Graham and force turnovers. In his last three road games, Brees has thrown six interceptions with a 1-2 record.
Having an impact on defense early is crucial — as we saw at Century Link and also in week 15 when St. Louis carried a fast start to win comfortably 27-16 against the Saints.
The result in Philly also means San Francisco can only set up a NFC West encounter in the playoffs by winning in Green Bay tomorrow and then Carolina next week.
That won’t be easy. If the Niners manage it, watch out.
They’re already coming into the post-season as the NFL’s hot hand. Winning two very difficult road games would further emphasise that.
Enough talk about San Francisco anyway. Let’s watch this instead…
What a way for Sammy Watkins to head into the NFL.
16 catches, 227 yards and a couple of touchdowns helped Clemson defeat Ohio State in the Orange Bowl (40-35).
It was the performance of a star in the making. A display that should solidify a top ten grade.
A former 5-star recruit who was a big catch for Clemson in 2011, he had an immediate impact as a true freshman (82 catches, 1219 yards and 12 touchdowns).
He had to get through a challenging sophomore year. He was arrested in May 2012 and charged with possession of a controlled substance and simple possession of marijuana, both misdemeanors. As a consequence he started the season serving a two-game suspension and it allowed DeAndre Hopkins to become the focal point of the Tigers’ passing game.
When he needed to show up big as a junior, and maybe grow up a little bit, Watkins delivered.
The Clemson coaches have had to push him along. On more than one occasion they’ve been vocal (and public) about him delivering on his massive potential.
Eventually the light switched on. And what we’re left with is an ultra-competitive, highly skilled explosive athlete.
This is what he brings to the table:
– Fantastic body control — Watkins is such a smooth runner. He never seems to get out of position and he adjusts to the ball perfectly. He’s very loose and can change direction easily. This is an underrated skill. Just look at the way Kelvin Benjamin ties himself up in knots trying to turn quickly and adjust to the ball. It helps that Watkins has a more compact frame, but he makes the most of it. As a consequence most of his routes are run crisply and this’ll help him make a quick impact at the next level.
– Superb hands — I’ll be very interested to check out how big they are at the combine. The ball just gets swallowed up in those mitts — you rarely see him juggle a pass or double catch. He can high point the football, he can grab it away from his body. Watkins will be a consistent hands catcher at the next level, a great red zone threat despite only being 6-1 and he’ll make his fair share of third down conversions.
– Elite speed — Whether he’s running a downfield route or taking a screen, Watkins has the potential to be a true difference maker. He can take the top of a defense, but he’s also going to be a big time threat on screens, reverses and the occasional end-around. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ran in the 4.3’s at the combine. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s a much more accomplished, rounded player than Tavon Austin — and he was a top ten pick last year.
– Excellent football IQ — DeAndre Hopkins was a student of the game. During interviews he’d regularly quote specific routes when detailing plays. He’d discuss what a defense was showing and how he exploited the call to make a catch. Watkins has picked up these habits. I’m not sure many people realise how switched on Watkins is. Clemson do a good job coaching their receivers.
– He’s the ultimate competitor — Another Hopkins cross-over. Both players seem to love the game. You HAVE to be this way to be a great receiver. You can’t coast. You can’t play at your own speed. Corner’s are getting bigger, tougher and faster. Thank the Seahawks for that. Receivers have to bring it. They must have an edge. Watkins has it in spades, just like Mike Evans and Marqise Lee. And it’s why all three should be top ten picks.
The term ‘complete player’ is thrown around too often, but in Watkins’ case it’s absolutely true.
There are some teams picking in the top ten who need a quarterback. This guy will make them second guess what they’re going to do.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see Watkins going in the top-five — just like A.J. Green in 2011 — to a team who is willing to wait until round two to get a quarterback.
Whichever signal caller ends up with Sammy Watkins should count his blessings.
The mad rush to let the world know you’re open for business.
Rams GM Les Snead (who for some reason is still rocking a ‘Leonardo Di Caprio in Titanic’ look, even though it’s not 1997) was the first to move:
“There are going to be some teams that want to pick a quarterback, and that could increase the value of our pick… I have told people I’m not sure I know how to draft without multiple first-round picks, so I’m always going to be interested when it comes to making sure I can continue to do that.”
Last time he had the #2 pick he turned it into a treasure trove — although I’d argue it’s debatable whether the Rams are better off without Robert Griffin III.
Clearly he’s hoping history will repeat itself. I doubt there was a happier man in America when Johnny Manziel led that comeback against Duke earlier in the week.
The Rams are in a very strong position, even if they won’t quite match the RGIII. The three teams sitting behind them in the draft — Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland — all desperately need quarterbacks.
If the Texans don’t select Jadeveon Clowney, they could also field calls from Atlanta — who badly need a pass rush.
Bob McNair and the Texans will be envious of this position. I suspect some potential trade partners will wait to see what they do before reacting.
They don’t have an Andrew Luck sitting there — or an RGIII for that matter. They’d almost certainly prefer to move down and get more bang for their buck.
Manziel and Clowney will be two guys that make a trade possible, as long as they let it be know they’re willing to take either at #1 but not at all costs.
I suspect one or two teams (maybe more) are going to fall head over heels for Johnny M. Ditto for Clowney.
I’m not sure anyone’s going to feel that way about Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles.
Some teams won’t have any interest in Johnny. But I’m willing to bet there’ll be a handful who talk themselves into needing him. Big time.
I can see Cleveland taking that stance.
Maybe Minnesota, too.
Clowney is a generational physical talent. He’ll go in the top 5. There’ll be no shortage of takers. But will anyone want him badly enough to go get the top pick?
I’ve mocked Clowney to Houston at every opportunity so far. But quarterback is their biggest need. They’ve appointed an offensive minded coach and he’ll want his own guy to build around.
Jay Cutler — the only obvious veteran out there worthy of a big trade — has now signed a mega-extension with Chicago.
Clowney is a nice fall back option if they can’t commit to Bridgewater, Manziel or Bortles. He’d be a terror alongside J.J. Watt.
But you have to wonder if they’ll feel obliged to take a quarterback, even if it is a little forced. There are two main reasons they slumped to 2-14 last year — bad offensive play calling and poor quarterback performance.
They’ll hope part one was addressed with their new coaching hire. Part two is the quarterback.
Waiting until #33 is an option, but A.J. McCarron’s performance against Oklahoma last night highlighted the issues within his game. His decision not to attend the Senior Bowl is also a head scratcher.
Nobody should expect Houston to draft another Carr brother.
If they do end up drafting a QB with the top pick, in a way it still helps St. Louis.
Take one of those signal callers off the board and the group thins. Now you’ve got three or four teams knowing they better move up or risk missing out on what is developing into a ‘power three’ of Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles.
Cleveland, with two first round picks, might get a twitchy trigger finger. Minnesota — with GM Rick Spielman seemingly on a short leash — might feel like they need to make a splash.
Advantage, St. Louis.
Be prepared for the Rams possibly having three first round picks this year, or at least another couple next year.
But hey — at least it means Les Di Caprio (or is it Leonardo Snead?) won’t be drafting the guy in the video below.
Because frankly, they can draft all the Alec Ogletree’s they want.
As long as Sam Bradford is throwing the darts, the Rams will likely be as average as their quarterback.
Right off the bat you have three players who could go in the top ten — Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins and Marqise Lee.
Evans is a Vincent Jackson clone. He’ll need to prove he’s as fast to max out his stock (Jackson ran in the 4.4’s), but there’s no denying he’s a terrific next-level prospect. He’ll be a quarterbacks best friend — coming back for the football, winning endless jump-balls, being a third down demon. He’s a star in the making and would be ideal for any young quarterback (such as E.J. Manuel at Buffalo, who own the #9 pick).
Watkins is a pure playmaker with underrated football intelligence, elite speed, strong hands and great body control. They coach receivers well at Clemson. DeAndre Hopkins had a perfect understanding of his offense and regularly broke down routes and schemes during interviews. Watkins has picked that up too. Teams could target him in the top ten and then go back for a quarterback (like A.J. McCarron or Derek Carr) in round two.
Lee is just a heck of a football player. The last prospect who flashed similar technical gifts and an ultra competitive attitude was A.J. Green. He doesn’t have Green’s size, but they have similar traits. I’d love to see him in a prolific passing offense such as Detroit’s. Imagine having to deal with Calvin Johnson on one side and Lee on the other? Like Evans, he’s pissed off for greatness. Receivers need that.
After that you’ve got a mountain of depth. Penn State’s Robinson is tall at 6-3 but surprisingly better with the ball in his hands as a YAC specialist. Whether he can take on a more orthodox role, make plays downfield and high point the football remains to be seen. He moves well, has a lean frame that can maybe add a bit more bulk. He might need time to adjust to the next level.
Brandon Coleman (6-6) and Kelvin Benjamin (6-5) offer more height and supreme physical qualities — even if they have a lot to work on.
Coleman must high point the football better but he’s really not been helped by the disastrous Rutgers passing offense. Look at him like a ball of clay, ready to be moulded into an effective pro-wide out. Not many guys can do what he does at that size. Don’t be shocked if he ends up being another sensational Josh Gordon-style physical freak. Gordon needed a year before blowing up the NFL.
Benjamin had the Heisman Trophy winner throwing dimes all season and it helped him put up big numbers. If you were designing a #1 receiver, he’d look a lot like Kelvin Benjamin. Great size, powerful frame. Yet he could be so much better than he’s shown in college. He has to cut out the frequent mental mistakes (plenty of lousy drops in 2013). He has to show more desire to dominate — which he is capable of doing. And he needs to show better body control and route running skills. If the light switches on –watch out.
Odell Beckham is an exceptional talent — huge hands, super smooth route runner, fantastic kick returner. He’s one of the best players in the draft. Any team that wants a receiver who can get on the field right away and make a quick transition needs to consider Beckham. He’s not the biggest, but he plays way above his size. Not many 6-0 receivers high point the ball like he does.
His partner at LSU — Jarvis Landry — isn’t too far behind. He’s also a reliable playmaker and a great safety net. Again — not the biggest. No problem. He’s just a really good player.
Oregon State’s Cooks is a smaller, quicker wide out who will likely operate in the slot at the next level and work heavily in the screen game. He won the Biletnikoff Award this year and put up huge numbers. Jordan Matthews is an incredibly polished #2 type who would suit the Indianapolis offense as a heir apparent to Reggie Wayne, while Paul Richardson is a capable playmaker on his day.
The list goes on — Devante Parker, Jared Abbrederis, Donte Moncrief, Cody Hoffman, Josh Huff, Michael Campanaro.
Receiver and offensive tackle are two positions of real depth in 2014.
But it’s the top end talent that is really exciting.
If the Seahawks want to target a wide out — this is as good a year as any. They’re unlikely to get close to Dorial Green-Beckham or Amari Cooper in 2015.
Even if Percy Harvin gets going and they re-sign Golden Tate, for me this has to be an area of focus for Seattle in May.
One performance doesn’t make a career, but making your last impression a good one can be crucial.
Manziel’s display against Duke will have the NFL talking today.
Everyone knows what he offers by now — incredible scrambling skills, the ability to improvise and extend plays, underrated talent as a passer and the ability to run a thoroughly modern NFL offense (including the read option).
Everyone knows the negatives too. The erratic mistakes, the plays where he tries to do too much, the lack of a big time arm (I’d argue it’s good enough, just not top-end) and the laundry list of bizarre off the field stories that include this article by ESPN that made him sound like a walking temper-tantrum.
But last night perhaps allayed some of those fears.
The Aggies trailed Duke 28-10 and 35-17. Defensively they were the usual shambles — conceding touchdowns on Duke’s first five possessions. And there was Manziel — rallying the troops. Leading his team. Pleading with his defense to get a stop, to take the football away.
All the while he battled away on to keep his team in the game — before leading a sensational comeback in a 52-48 victory.
This is what NFL teams want to see. No tantrums. No sulking. A man determined to win, taking responsibility and lifting every single player on that A&M sideline.
Once again he did things only he seems capable of. Take this touchdown for example…
Seriously, have you ever seen anything like that?
I’m a sucker for improvisation. It’s the single most underrated quality a quarterback can have. I don’t want a signal caller who collapses when his initial read or two isn’t there. I don’t want to rely on someone who buckles if the defense offers an exotic look, or wins at the LOS.
I want a guy who can make something out of nothing. Manziel is better at that than any quarterback we’ll ever see in college football.
He doesn’t need to be a choir boy. He can go to parties dressed as Scooby-Doo, wear a Tim Tebow jersey, say whatever he wants on Twitter. He just needs to prove he can be a leader. Whether he’s up for the 5:30am alarm call to be the first in the building, we won’t know until he makes the league.
But last night I guarantee a heck of a lot of NFL teams were salivating about Johnny Football being their guy.
Want a great example of how he acted as a leader last night? Mike Evans got into an unnecessary tussle with the #6 for Duke who was covering him early in the game. He got one silly flag for reacting to whatever was going on there — and added a second later on.
Manziel could sense he wasn’t focused — and this happened…
Again, that’s a guy taking responsibility. Instead of letting the coaches deal with it, Manziel does their job for them. For what it’s worth, Evans did settle down after this and made some plays.
So he might not be a Russell Wilson-esque workaholic who lives and breathes game tape. But he might be responsible enough to know he’s the quarterback and he has to lead by example.
I’ve no doubt a lot of GM’s will be digging out the Alabama game from last year. They’ll watch it, breathe it in.
Convince themselves even more.
We need this guy.
Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota. I’m almost certain that one of those teams is going to talk themselves into drafting Manziel in the top ten. And why not?
The Texans need a signal caller. Are they any more likely to win with Teddy Bridgewater?
The Jags need a reason to get excited. They need a face of the franchise, someone to build around. Manziel can get people talking about Jacksonville.
Cleveland is looking to end years of misery and are reportedly known admirers.
Oakland has nothing right now. What have they got to lose?
Minnesota’s spent the last three years trying to get by with mediocre, boring quarterbacks. Will they go for the home run?
Heck — even the Rams at #2 should be all over this. Who really wants to face this guy twice a year in the NFC West?
I certainly don’t.
Quite frankly I’d rather fail as a NFL GM putting my faith in this kind of quarterback instead of hoping a Sam Bradford pans out. Or that a Teddy Bridgewater will be better than average.
I’ll hold my hands up if I’m wrong, but I suspect last night is just the beginning of a huge clamour that ends up with Manziel going in the top three picks. Some of the teams listed above will talk themselves into feeling they have to have him.
Quite frankly if the Seahawks didn’t have Wilson — I suspect I’d be banging the drum for the guy myself.
The NFL will be more fun with Jonny Football. And I think he’s going to head into the pro’s as a top five pick.
Jadeveon Clowney is the best defensive physical specimen to enter the NFL since Mario Williams and Julius Peppers.
The one thing all three have in common?
Houston owned the #1 overall pick when they all turned pro.
In 2002 the Texans were an expansion franchise and passed on Peppers to take David Carr.
You can see the thought process. They felt they needed a quarterback to launch the team. In hindsight it was a big mistake. Carr flopped with no supporting cast and a bad offensive line. Peppers is an eight-time Pro-Bowler with 119 career sacks.
In 2006 they passed on two quarterbacks — Vince Young and Matt Leinart — plus Reggie Bush, to take Williams. This time the plan worked.
Now they face a familiar dilemma.
Once again they need a quarterback. It’s why they ended up with the #1 pick in the first place. They already have without question the best defensive player in the NFL in J.J. Watt. There’s enough playmaking talent on the offense — including an elite running back and two excellent receivers.
Better playcalling, better schemes and a new quarterback and Houston could quickly get back into contention in a weak AFC South.
They’re bringing in Penn State’s Bill O’Brien to replace Gary Kubiak. The next task will be to get a quarterback.
And this is where the situation gets complicated.
If they like Teddy Bridgewater (or Johnny Manziel) enough, they’ll just make that pick. Often with time, teams will talk themselves into liking a quarterback. There’s every chance that happens here.
At the back of their minds though will be the lingering presence of Clowney.
Put him alongside Watt, and you could be looking at an outrageous superstar double-act.
When Clowney gets to the combine — assuming he works out — he’ll put on a masterclass. That’s when people will remember what all the fuss was about at the start of the year. He really is the kind of rare physical talent that only comes around 2-3 times in a decade.
The Texans need a quarterback, but they don’t need to invest in the wrong one for the sake of it.
They might be able to do a deal for a veteran, just like Kansas City a year ago. What is Jay Cutler’s future in Chicago? That’s the big question. How easy would it be to do a deal there, if the Bears are even interested? Would the #33 pick and a high 2015 selection be enough? It’d be comparable to the Alex Smith trade.
Alternatively can they find an option in round two? Whether that’s A.J. McCarron or Brett Hundley or whoever.
I think it’d be wrong to just assume Houston will just take a quarterback first overall and that’s that. Clowney has to be in play. And if there’s any doubt about Bridgewater, they need to take him and try to turn the #33 pick into a quarterback, even if it involves a trade.
One other note before we get into it — the Rams are already making it known they want to deal the #2 pick. They’ll struggle to get the treasure-trove they received from Washington in the RGIII deal, but I can definitely see interest emerging.
Either Clowney or Bridgewater is going to be there when they’re on the clock. Someone is going to pick up the phone. So although Bridgewater is at #2 here, I fully expect St. Louis to make a trade. This isn’t me projecting Bridgewater to the Rams. I just don’t think he’s special enough to expect he’ll be any better than the already average Sam Bradford.
So here we go.
And Happy New Year.
#1 Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
Take Clowney at #1, put him next to J.J. Watt and enjoy. Do whatever it takes to turn the #33 pick into a QB you can win with.
#2 Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
I don’t expect the Rams to draft Bridgewater. But I do expect someone to trade into this slot for the top QB or Clowney.
#3 Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
Gus Bradley could use a great edge rusher. I have my doubts about Barr, but physically he has a ton of upside.
#4 Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)
If they really do have a lot of interest in Manziel, they might as well take him here.
#5 Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
He could shoot up boards by the combine. Oakland also needs a quarterback and should target one at the top of round two.
#6 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
The type of player Atlanta typically goes for. They need a tackle. Matthews might be better suited on the right side.
#7 Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)
Fantastic prospect. Elite athletic qualities. Looks like a complete stud. He’s a better prospect than Matthews for me.
#8 Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)
What are they going to do next at quarterback? They wasted a pick on Ponder, brought in Cassel and then signed Freeman. Shambles.
#9 Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
The more I watch Evans, the more convinced I am he’s a top ten pick and a true #1 receiver.
#10 Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Just a really good, competitive football player. Would look great alongside Megatron.
#11 Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama)
Kouandjio and Robinson are the top two tackles for me. If he lasts this long it’d be a steal.
#12 Antonio Richardson (T, Tennessee)
Massive tackle prospect with a ton of potential. If he finds a level of consistency, he could be another Anthony Davis.
#13 Tyler Lewan (T, Michigan)
Solid if unspectacular tackle prospect. Just a good, honest football player.
#14 Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
He will dominate at the Senior Bowl and secure a place in the top-20 next May.
#15 Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan State)
The best corner in a very average class.
#16 Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo)
I’m not completely sold on Mack, but the Ravens have a lot of needs including adding another pass rusher.
#17 Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
He’s not dominated in 2013 and it’s a concern. Has he added too much bad weight?
#18 Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
Modern day tight end. Would provide a much needed weapon for the Jets offense.
#19 Cedric Ogbuehi (T, Texas A&M)
Reports say he’ll stay at A&M for another year. If he chooses to declare he’ll likely be a first rounder.
#20 Cameron Erving (T, Florida State)
Converted defensive lineman. Having a good year. One to coach up and mould into a competent left tackle.
#21 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Green Bay’s defense badly needs an upgrade. Mosley would be a nice presence at inside linebacker.
#22 Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State
He’s had a productive year. I’ve only seen one of his games but came away impressed
#23 Brent Urban (DE, Virginia)
Chip Kelly likes defenders with length and speed.
#24 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama)
Is he a first round pick? Possibly. The Chiefs don’t have any glaring needs.
#25 Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Roby didn’t have a great 2013 season but I’m a believer.
#26 Odell Beckham Jr (WR, LSU)
Could provide a dynamic double threat with Josh Gordon.
#27 Xavier Su’a-Filo (G, UCLA)
Big upside prospect with his best years ahead.
#28 Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, Washington)
Big, orthodox tight end. Could go in round one, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he dropped into the second.
#29 Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State)
I’m not a huge fan. Too inconsistent. But he’s the big bodied wide out Carolina currently lacks.
#30 Zack Martin (T/G, Notre Dame)
I really, really like this guy. He can play tackle in the NFL for me. Top-20 grade.
#31 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Forget the numbers and concentrate on the upside. He could be another Josh Gordon. See the video at the top of the article.
#32 La’el Collins (G, LSU)
I think he’ll end up at guard in the NFL, despite playing tackle this year.
Hopefully there's another three games before this man takes the spotlight
End of season draft status check
This is a pretty unusual end of season report. Normally there’s at least one glaringly obvious, critical need for the Seahawks.
For the time being, that isn’t the case.
We can make arguments for certain positional upgrades. But the fact of the matter is this is currently the most rounded overall roster in the NFL. The record speaks for itself at 13-3.
That could change very quickly when players start to get paid. And that moment is coming.
This off-season will be the first opportunity to extend Richard Sherman’s contract — and I expect that to happen. It’s unimaginable to think they’ll let Earl Thomas play through the final year of his contract, knowing the 2015 off-season will be the time they pay Russell Wilson.
Sherman and Thomas will get extensions this off-season. I’m pretty sure about that.
Wilson’s second contract is also just around the corner. They’ll have to start making room now for a likely $100m+ deal. If he wins a Championship either this season or next, it’s going to be an eye-watering deal (see: Joe Flacco).
This is why we talk about being forced to cut players you’d ideally keep. It’s unavoidable. There isn’t any scenario where Sherman, Thomas and Wilson aren’t part of this team for the long haul. They are the holy grail of this franchise.
They will have to start making some room and relying on the draft for replacements.
Seattle will probably never have a roster as jam packed as the 2013 edition. Not without world class drafting every year. While it’s not going to be a mass exodus in a few weeks time, the first few painful cuts or walks will be tough to watch.
Right now we don’t really know what Seattle’s greatest need is. We have to wait and see what happens.
Here are a few scenarios to consider…
– What if Michael Bennett walks? He has no reason not to test free agency. He came here on a one-year deal to prove himself. Job done. Nearly every team in the NFL would be stupid not to try and sign him. It’ll only take one team to make a gigantic offer to price Seattle out of the market. I sincerely hope Bennett stays with the Seahawks, but I’m preparing for the worst. He was a true difference maker for this team, the missing piece of the puzzle. Without him in 2014 I fear the pass rush will revert back to its previous one-dimensional status. That can’t be allowed to happen.
– Breno Giacomini is a terrific Seahawk. His attitude, his honesty, his execution. He might be the most under-appreciated player this team has had in my time following the Seahawks. Too many people got bogged down with his penalty trouble at the start of last season. He’s a very good right tackle. Even though his position doesn’t attract a lot of attention in free agency, he might be a painful sacrifice this off-season. It’s hard to imagine how they’ll be able to afford him unless he generates zero interest in the open market, which I highly doubt. Unless they truly believe in Michael Bowie as a starter, it would make right tackle a priority.
– Receivers get paid big bucks in free agency. Golden Tate is the perfect combination of household name and playmaker. Someone will pay him to be part of their roster. Like Bennett, he’ll be too costly for the franchise tag. He was Seattle’s most productive receiver in 2013 and has a ton of chemistry with Wilson. Can they find a way to keep him? Everyone would love to see Tate get an extension. If it doesn’t happen — it’ll create a big hole. Throw in Percy Harvin’s health issues and Sidney Rice’s likely departure and receiver could quickly turn into a titanic need.
– Tony McDaniel has been a revelation this year — a truly underrated signing at a cost effective $600k. Along with the rejuvenated Clinton McDonald, another free agent, we’re talking about two players who will likely need to be replaced. McDaniel in particular has been more than just an impact player. He’s been an absolutely crucial starter. The positive is they plucked him from nowhere to have such an impact. Maybe they can do it again?
These are just four scenarios. Then you throw in all the potential cuts. What if you have to move on Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane or Red Bryant (or a combination of the three) in order to pay Bennett, Sherman and Thomas? That creates a need for another pass rusher or a run stopping defensive tackle.
Right now we can only speculate on what might happen. Needs will emerge, it’s simply impossible for Seattle to go into next season with everything intact.
For me, it’s all about keeping the defense together. It’s the most rounded group in the NFL.
Some minor changes are unavoidable. I expect we’re coming to the end of the Clemons era and it’ll be tough to hang on to McDaniel. Keeping everyone else is key, without exception. Try to re-sign McDaniel, McDonald and Walter Thurmond. Keep Bryant and Mebane.
To preserve the defense — almost man for man — it could mean losing Golden Tate and Breno Giacomini, which would be tough to stomach. Particularly given the complete lack of payback on the Harvin trade so far and the investment made in him, while Tate is the one out there making plays.
But the defense will make Seattle a contender year in, year out. This isn’t the draft to feel comfortable trying to replace a guy like Michael Bennett, but it is a good, deep draft for receivers and offensive tackles.
Seattle has made its bed with Harvin and if he can get back to good health — that trade can still be a success. Pairing him with Doug Baldwin and a bigger, true #1 will help make up for the potential loss of Tate if it comes to that.
For that reason — as things stand — I’d say a big receiver is the greatest need this team has. But that’s just today.
One final thought on this — what should they do if there’s simply no way of keeping Michael Bennett?
I’d take the money saved for him, put it in a big bag, and hand it to Lamarr Houston. He’s the nearest thing you’ll find to Bennett in free agency this off-season.
Breakdown of the prospective two big needs
Wide receiver
Golden Tate is a free agent. Sidney Rice’s knee injury and huge contract will likely lead to a parting of ways. Percy Harvin’s hip injury remains a major concern, even if he practises this week. This is a big need for Seattle. Even if Tate re-signs and Harvin gets healthy, they need a big bodied wide out. It’s an absolute must. Russell Wilson will thrive with a big target to throw to downfield.
Best early round options: Mike Evans, Brandon Coleman, Kelvin Benjamin
Offensive tackle
I’d love to see Breno Giacomini get a new contract. The guy belongs on this team, playing for Tom Cable. But the reality is the only way he can stick around is with a decent pay cut. His cap hit this year is $4.25m. A rookie drafted in the late first round can expect to earn around $1.2m in year one. The saving is obviously even bigger if you wait until the late second round.
Best early round options: Cyrus Kouandjio, Antonio Richardson, Greg Robinson, Zack Martin, Cedric Ogbuehi, Cameron Erving, Taylor Lewan
Monday notes
Dan Quinn a coaching target?
Vikings have requested permission to interview Seahawks DC Dan Quinn, as Browns have.
Assistants at winning teams will always get attention. I suspect Quinn will get more than two interviews. Before anyone panics though, let’s remember — this is Pete Carroll’s defense. And while Carroll remains, there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off.
From Quinn’s point of view, this has to be tempting. You don’t get many opportunities to become a Head Coach in the NFL.
I say good luck to him. But I hope he, Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable remain with the team in 2014.
Jason La Canfora is now reporting Bevell will also interview with the Vikings. He was, of course, formerly an offensive coordinator in Minnesota.
Browns zoning in on McDaniels and Manziel?
Rob Chudzinski was fired yesterday, somewhat surprisingly.
I have a theory here.
‘Chud’ and offensive coordinator Norv Turner are pretty immovable on the type of quarterback they want. It’s the Troy Aikman, Philip Rivers style pocket passer.
There’s been a lot of speculation for weeks about Cleveland’s interest in Johnny Manziel. The very opposite of what you’d call a Turner-style quarterback.
If the Browns’ front office are pretty much sold on the idea of Manziel, why would they stick with a coaching staff that contradicts that vision? It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they go with a creative offensive mind willing to embrace the much-discussed Texas A&M quarterback — rather than Quinn or Todd Bowles (who they are also hoping to interview).
For that reason I expect Josh McDaniels to be candidate #1 on Cleveland’s list. They tried to get him last year. And McDaniels is the guy who drafted Tim Tebow during his spell in Denver.
Clearly he likes a challenge.
Manziel could be his next project.
And then there’s this…
Once Josh McDaniels interviews for the Browns job, again, I’ll have a helluva time thinking someone else gets it — Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) December 30, 2013
I’ll be doing a mock draft tomorrow — and guess who the Browns will be taking?
Speaking of the 2014 quarterback class…
Jimmy Haslam signing the praises of 2014 @NFL Draft. Had a GM tell me last night it reminds him of the 2011 draft when it comes to QBs. Ouch
Teddy Bridgewater will be a solid starter with the right guidance, but will he ever be truly elite? I suspect Manziel will be constantly up and down — a bit like Andy Dalton, even if they’re very different players. As for the rest? It wreaks of another Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and Jake Locker bunch.
I suspect we won’t see as many going early. Surely the NFL has learnt its lesson?
Maybe not.
2014 confirmed draft order so far
#1 Houston Texans
#2 St. Louis Rams (via Washington)
#3 Jacksonville Jaguars
#4 Cleveland Browns
#5 Oakland Raiders
#6 Atlanta Falcons
#7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#8 Minnesota Vikings
#9 Buffalo Bills
#10 Detroit Lions
#11 Tennessee Titans
#12 New York Giants
#13 St. Louis Rams
#14 Chicago Bears
#15 Pittsburgh Steelers
T #16 Baltimore Ravens
T #16 Dallas Cowboys
#18 New York Jets
#19 Miami Dolphins
#20 Arizona Cardinals
The Ravens and Cowboys will need to toss and coin to determine who owns the #16 and #17 picks.
