Author: Rob Staton (Page 383 of 422)

Joe Sousa at a new web site titled ‘Ultimate Seahawks Fan’ is running a poll for the best Seahawks blogs on the web. He’s very kindly included Seahawks Draft Blog, so check out his site and don’t forget to vote!

PS- I’ve just noticed there’s a prize at stake. I like prizes. Just throwing that out there.

This is clearly the game of the weekend, featuring several big name draft prospects. A lot of hyped players will need to perform, can they deliver? Keep an eye on FSU cornerback Greg Reid – he’s an excellent cover corner who plays physical but has the speed you look for at the next level. He’ll have a tough task keeping a lid on the Sooner’s pass-heavy offense and he’ll need help from the FSU defensive line. Reid in my opinion is the best player on the field tonight.

I’m not sold on the Brandon Jenkins hype. He’s a one-dimensional player in that he’s got the speed to do serious damage in college but not the repertoire to really trouble pro-lineman. Projections in the first round are premature, but another year collecting sacks will help his cause.

Everyone will be looking for a big performance from Landry Jones, but this is typically the kind of game he’s struggled in previously. He’s on the road, he’s facing a decent pass rush/secondary combo and he’s going to be out of his comfort zone. He had an easy win against a raw Seminoles side last year on home turf, this will be a very different game. If he thrives, so will his draft stock. I keep thinking back to the Missouri game last year when he was outclassed by Blaine Gabbert. Oklahoma were ranked #1 that evening too and blew it. Big game for Jones tonight.

Ryan Broyles is the latest prolific receiver to come out of the OU system. I have a hard time placing him in the NFL despite the numbers, he won’t be able to manufacture stats at the next level. A mid-round grade appears generous and based purely on production.

Expect thoughts on this game tomorrow including a review piece on other top prospects. I’ll be watching tape from Arizona-Stanford and Washington-Nebraska too over the next 48 hours.

Thanks again to JMPasq for providing the tape.

In the video above (courtesy of JMPasq) you’ll find tape of Notre Dame wide out Michael Floyd. He’s a prospect with a lot of physical qualities to be a high pick, but he’s let down by off the field concerns and technical flaws. In fairness he’s started the year with noticeable improvements to the way he’s catching the ball – he’s showing his hands to the quarterback and making grabs away from his body. In the past he was a big-time body catcher, so he’s worked on that with some success if the tape above is any evidence. I get the feeling old habits die hard though, as we see with his last few catches hitting his chest – including the late touchdown. 

He’s a big guy with NFL size, but he’s not a terrific speed threat and won’t run a special time at the combine. He’s not a polished route runner and he’s not especially quick into his breaks. A lot of people have maintained high grades on Floyd but because he has issues that need to be ironed out with his technique, because he’s not a unique athlete and because of the off the field problems and the bad decisions he’s made I still have a hard time offering anything more than a mid-round projection. Even so, he has this season to put up the big numbers and boost his stock.

We’ve talked a lot about a positive impression for USC quarterback Matt Barkley. Interestingly, ESPN pundit Todd McShay is less emphatic about his stock. He still gives Barkley a round one grade, but at the back end of the first rather than the top five pick I believe he could be. “I have him in the low twenties, late first, early second round” according to this tweet via Evan Silva. He’s also a big Landry Jones fan, complimenting his accuracy. McShay has been hotter than people think with prospects in recent years – he was the first person to talk about Blaine Gabbert last year (we had him at #13 in a mock draft in December, long before people wondered whether he would even declare). McShay was also consistent on Jimmy Clausen, consistently stating he was a second round pick not a high first like many people imagined.

Whether McShay will be proven right on Barkley/Jones remains to be seen, but his view on both is worth noting.

Matthew Elder at Buffalo Bills Draft wonders whether Robert Griffin could be the second coming of Michael Vick. “We have watched Griffin very closely over the past year and we think that the way he runs and throws not only compares well to what Vick was in college, it exceeds it.”

I think that’s a bold statement, perhaps too bold. Vick was a sensational prospect coming out of college, maybe even a once in a generation type of player. Off field problems have tarnished his reputation permanently and stunted his potential achievements, but there’s no doubting he’s an elite NFL performer on his day. Griffin is a good athlete, but is he a Michael Vick athlete?

Elder points out that Griffin is rising up the boards and is already above Landry Jones in terms of a grade in his view. I still maintain a level of caution – as good as his performance against TCU was it must be repeated consistently to really buy into the potential. As I wrote in this piece after that game against the Horned Frogs, I have a lot of issues with his footwork and how that corelates to his ability to pass the ball at the next level. I don’t think he’ll be able to compensate with sensational playmaking ability as he learns on the run. He’s much more of a project than Vick ever was and an absolute mile away in terms of potential. Griffin is a natural born leader though with a perfect character and attitude – we’ll never see any negative headlines in that sense.

That’s not say he can’t get to that Vick-level of on-field talent, but I think it’s a long shot. I doubt we’ll ever see a player that truly warrants the comparison to Michael Vick. Whatever your feelings are about Vick – and rest assured I share them if they’re largely negative – he is a completely unique entity.

I have several games prepared to record for this weekend. I’m away with work for the next two days but will have a review post on Saturday and thoughts on prospects from Sunday onwards. My schedule for week three includes Boise State at Toledo, Tennessee against Florida, Oklahoma versus Florida State, Stanford at Arizona and Washington against Nebraska.

I’d highly recommend making Tony Pauline’s ‘Draft Insider’ blog a regular feature of your daily reading. Not only does Tony provide accurate grades and opinions, he also has a lot of contacts offering insider info on what players, scouts and teams are thinking. This week he had a particularly interesting blog post which seems to suggest a possible exodus at USC at the end of the year:

“The west coast scouts have been incredibly impressed with USC tackle Matt Kalil thus far.  He’s been completely dominant in all aspects and the teams that have watched him say he’s a big time left tackle prospect.  In fact one of the best in recent years.  If he enters the draft, and early word is Kallil will make the move to the NFL, scouts say he’s a much better prospect than Tyron Smith and will be drafted earlier than his former teammate, who was chosen with the 10^th selection by the Dallas Cowboys last April.” 

There’s a good chance many of Kallil’s underclassmen teammates will join him and make the leap to the next level in 2012.  Several sources have told us there’s tension in the USC locker room and the players are just not having a good time. Many of the top junior prospects have already begun the process of looking towards the 2012 NFL Draft.  In fact sources told us the players are having family and friends lay the foundation and do the research necessary.  In conversations over the past week with numerous insiders we’ve heard that quarterback Matt Barkley, safety T.J. McDonald, defensive end/outside linebacker Nick Perry and Devon Kennard are all seriously considering opting for the draft after the season.  We hear both Barclay and McDonald will leave if they receive first round grades in post season evaluations.”  

For a long time during the summer I was working under the assumption that Matt Barkley would not declare, there’s enough noise at the moment suggesting the opposite is a greater possibility. USC is Barkley’s team right now and staying for a fourth year would almost certainly come with legendary status at the school, particularly during a difficult few years. However, it’s almost like he’s been groomed from the start to become a NFL quarterback and provided with the opportunity to turn pro with a high grade, that could be just too tempting. This is what Pauline had to say about the Trojan’s quarterback, “Accurate quarterback prospect that has the ability to make most of the passes. Lacks classic pocket passer size but has enough ability to start the next level.” He was given a first round grade.

Pauline has been critical of another big name college quarterback – Oklahoma’s Landry Jones. I didn’t agree with the fourth round grade offered, but certainly I’ve said many times that based on 2010 tape I didn’t see a high first round pick. Even so, things can change and I’m looking forward to watching Jones for the first time this year against Florida State. In a league where Christian Ponder goes 12th overall, there’s every chance Jones will equally go higher than perhaps he should. Here’s what Pauline had to say in his latest post:

“We’ve taken heat from different sources for our initial evaluation on Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones, and that’s fine.  Insiders we’ve spoken with say that while they rate him slightly higher than us, they concur Jones has done nothing yet to prove he’s the first round choice many have anointed him to be.  Surprisingly, or I should say surprising to us anyway, scouts are very high on Oklahoma State signal caller Brandon Weeden, though his age (28 years old next month) is a concern.  We liked what we saw from Weeden in spurts last year but were not as impressed after breaking down his game film.”

On Weeden, I generally agree. He’s got a level of maturity and execution that you’d expect from someone who has already played pro-sports and is approaching his 30’s. He’s a lot older and more experienced than most of the players he’s competing with and that has given him an edge. He’s not a spectacular prospect physically and he’s worked within a productive system that has made life easy for other quarterbacks in the past. It’s hard to imagine any team investing too much stock in a player who turns 29 during his rookie season and if Weeden was hearing the right kind of NFL noises in January, considering his age I don’t see why he would’ve returned to OKSU. Nevertheless, he’s still a fun player to watch and he may still get a shot at the next level.

Pauline has a more positive impression on Ryan Lindley, giving him a third round grade. When I saw him again TCU last year physically there were some pro’s, but he lacked polish and there were several technique issues. I graded him in the round 5-7 range.

Kirk Cousins went 16-21 vs FAU for 183 yards

I’ve just watched tape from Michigan State’s blow out victory over Florida Atlantic and took the opportunity to monitor quarterback Kirk Cousins. He’s one of a number of second tier quarterback prospects behind Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley who will battle to be the #3 ranked player.

The more I watch Cousins though, the more I view him as a project. He looks like a classic reach – the type of QB who goes earlier than he should, starts earlier than he should and struggles. He’s deceptive in that he’s polished but limited.

For starters he’s very neat and tidy, but lacks upper body power and it shows. There’s some zip on his passes and a decent spiral, but there’s not a lot of punch and anything beyond an intermediate level tends to float. He’s got height and a frame that’s capable of holding more weight, but that’s something he hasn’t really improved upon – at least to the untrained eye – during the recent off season. He still looks about 205lbs and 6-3/6-4, but you sense he could hold 220lbs and dramatically improve his physical make-up to complete the more difficult pro-throws.

What I do like is his footwork. He drops back with a degree of comfort and in the shotgun he sets to throw with the ease of a seasoned pro. Cousins’ has a great grasp of play action and can both sell it and execute. When he’s forced to move around in the pocket he’s capable and he’ll extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. Last season there were occasional errors trying to force the issue under pressure, but this was a cupcake game for MSU and he wasn’t tested. He isn’t a threat to break off runs though, he’s exclusively elusive rather than a scrambler. I have noticed a tendency to panic on inside pressure, often throwing high to his right when rushed up the middle or taking an unnecessary sack. He’s much better against the edge rush, detecting the defender and making room to throw.

The reason I think his footwork is slightly deceptive in the greater scheme of things is that it makes Cousins appear more pro-capable than perhaps he really is. Everything is one read and checkdown, always to the underneath receiver or running back. I get that a lot of college QB’s are in the same boat but you look for evidence that they’re at least capable of more. There aren’t many challenging throws in the Spartans’ offense and I’m not convinced he has the range needed to make difficult passes on a medium-to-deep level, particularly into tight windows. His deep ball can be ugly – it’s high and floats too much. He’s not progressing to a second read – something (for the point of comparison) Cam Newton did do even in Auburn’s offense (and it was an under rated aspect as people assumed he was exclusively one-read and run).

Accuracy wise he’s inconsistent – he goes just too high too often, including on quick shots to the right. Then on the next play he’ll find a receiver in behind two defensive backs for a 18-yard gain, all because of good placement and touch.

There’s every chance he’ll be over drafted because he carries a level of polish that a lot of college QB’s lack, he’s mobile and I supsect MSU will have a good year – possibly an unbeaten year. Yet he’s still a project and some teams may wrongly judge he’s ready to start quickly. He needs a good two years on a pro-weight programme and you’ll be gambling on that extra strength matching solid accuracy on deeper throws. I’d be concerned that a team will draft Cousins – possibly as early as round two – believing they’re getting a polished QB who can play somewhat quickly and they’ll be surprised when he’s completely unprepared to start. He may not even be able to add weight – it was a big issue for Tony Pike in Cincinnati who similarly had a tall, slim frame before being drafted by Carolina.

I want to stress that Cousins is also far from a lost cause. I think he’d be a good pick up for a team like Philadelphia, who can let him sit behind Michael Vick and be groomed in a good passing system by a good offensive coach. I see some similarities between Kevin Kolb and Cousins and like the former, MSU’s QB would benefit from a similar situation. Kolb had the benefit of time to sit, playing behind a veteran. When he started in Philly he was afforded a running game and a receiver combo of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Now he has Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Cousins will need not only a similar environment, but also similar weapons (but which QB doesn’t need Larry Fitzgerald?).

Feeling lucky yet?

When people call the NFL a quarterbacks league, they speak the absolute, unquestioned truth. The blue print to success is clear these days – having a franchise passer is integral and so is having players on defense who can prevent other franchise passer’s succeeding.

The evidence on Sunday suggests the Seahawks have neither.

I don’t want to be overly critical because it’s only week one and there’s still plenty of football to come. The Seahawks can still go 4-2 in the NFC West and give themselves a fair shot at retaining the division crown. If you’d have made that point to me at half time yesterday however, I would’ve laughed loudly.

The Seahawks’ offense was pathetic in the first half against San Francisco. It wasn’t really a surprise, because the first team unit looked equally awful in all four pre-season games. The offensive line didn’t do a great job, the running game was completely shut down and Tarvaris Jackson looked as tentative and panicky as he did during his five seasons in Minnesota. Is shambles too strong a word? Only if you believe a week one judgement is too soon. On pure face value, it’s the perfect description.

At least the second half performance was better and unlike the previous regime in Seattle, there was at least signs of spirit and hope. The simple fact is though – you can’t give teams a 16-0 head start on the road and expect to win.

Jackson deserves some degree of time to settle into life with the Seahawks offense. He’s been vaulted into a starting role simply due to his familiarity with the offensive coordinator, but his move to Seattle still carries a major learning curve. The problem for Tarvaris is that unlike a rookie or a player that cost some form of trade stock – people will naturally be less patient. The mere fact that Charlie Whitehurst cost a third round pick buys him extra wiggle room with fans because they don’t want their team to make a mistake in the trade. Trades carry pride and a need for justification that low-level investment free-agent pick-ups don’t. Jackson hasn’t got the same luxury as a Whitehurst – if he fails then nobody is going to worry about that $4m salary. People are already concerned that the Seahawks wasted a third rounder on Whitehurst – it’s one of the big argument for Charlie starting regardless of prior performance.

A lot has been made of the offensive line struggles and certainly they exist, but I’m going to keep beating a drum I’ve been banging on about for the last few years. If your offense carries zero or very little skill/passing threat to an opposition defense, you can’t expect to block your way to success. Offensive line play will never be defined by high draft picks or expensive free agents. They are a group of individuals working as a team competing – at times – in outnumbered situations. If you have a lot of talented guys among that group that happened to cost a lot of draft stock, fine. You can’t, however, just fit early draft picks and big names into a line and suddenly expect great pass protection and a running game. Familiarity, execution, scheme and opportunity are just as important as talent for an offensive line. If they are being consistently blitzed, stacked, attacked and outnumbered you can’t expect miracles.

The offensive line is just one cog that relies on the performance of the quarterback and skill position players as much as they rely on protection and blocking. How else do you explain the fact teams with elite quarterbacks and far from elite offensive line regularly meet in the Super Bowl? When you play Green Bay, you fear Aaron Rodgers and all of those receiving options. You don’t go to San Diego, Indianapolis or New England and worry about getting around an elite offensive line – it’s all about the quarterback.

Jackson is never going to be afforded the kind of perfect passing pocket some crave and demand in Seattle. Which team in it’s right mind is going to be concerned about him beating them in the air? Harsh but true. That’s not to say he won’t defeat the odds and win games this year. That’s not to say he won’t end up demanding greater respect with his performances. However, those complaining that Jackson isn’t getting enough time to play better need to realise that situation will not exist and probably wouldn’t even with 2005 Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson on the line.

Speaking of 2005, the Seahawks are a perfect example of this argument. Yes they had a great line, but they also had a Pro-Bowl quarterback in his prime, working within a system he’d mastered from one of the great offensive minds. That passing game, on it’s day, functioned like clockwork. They also had a NFL MVP superstar at running back. Would Jones and Hutchinson have enjoyed half as much success in Seattle without all of the other pieces to the puzzle? I would say almost certainly not.

The Seahawks have acquired some talent this year, not just on the offensive line but also at the skill positions. Yet Michael Lombardi was correct when he said right now they’re just accumulating individuals. There’s not a true identity to the team other than a lot of talk about being able to run and seemingly ‘get by’ at the quarterback position until perhaps the opportunity to get ‘the guy’ appears. I can’t see much changing until they do get that guy, whenever that may be. Pass-protection won’t really get much better this season apart from the occasional game (not next week, for sure). The running game will continue to lurch on and will not define this team the way Pete Carroll wants it to. Until that quarterback is acquired one way or another that can sling it like the best, this will be the story of the Seahawks offense. And right now it looks like one of the worst – if not the worst – in the NFL.

The defense seems to have received a much more positive review for it’s performance. Admittedly, San Francisco couldn’t run for peanuts and that is testament to the stoutness up front. That’s all well and good, but Alex Smith may not have an easier game all season and that’s in spite of the fact Frank Gore had only 59 yards from 22 carries. Smith coasted along, unchallenged, to the tune of 15-20 passing. There was NO pass rush. For all the plaudits being handed to the defense, they’ll struggle to come up against an opposition quite as weak as the one presented in San Francisco.

Alex Smith – much maligned former #1 pick who is again playing for his future and seemingly a stop gap for whatever direction Jim Harbaugh chooses to go for the long haul. Michael Crabtree – talented but absent throughout pre-season. Braylon Edwards – the guy nobody wanted. New coaching staff/scheme – and it needed to be installed in a much shorter time frame. Positive aspects like Vernon Davis and Frank Gore noted, but this is not an offense that will give anyone a headache outside of the NFC West this year. Just like Seattle.

That’s the second part of the equation for a competitor – you need to pass on offense and stop the pass on defense. If you’re not creating sacks, you need to be creating pressure. The Seahawks have some niche role players who through scheme will generate a level of production in the LEO, but they lack one dominating, scary pass rusher.

I kept an eye on the Redskins vs Giants game yesterday and was amazed how successful Washington were despite the fact they have some of the same problems as Seattle on offense. It was all based around Brian Orakpoconsistently beating his man, supported by a collection of other guys capable of capitalising on Orakpo’s dominance such as round one pick Ryan Kerrigan.

It’s really encouraging to see that the Seahawks are tough against the run and it has to be said that for the most part on Sunday, the young group of linebackers and defensive backs did a good job. Yet we will never feel the true potential of this unit without someone to cause havoc in the backfield. It doesn’t need to be an edge rusher – it could be a great three technique. Nevertheless, that’s almost as big a need as the gigantic hole at quarterback.

On paper that’s two needs that could be the difference between Sunday’s first half shambles and potential NFC competitor. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, alongside the left tackle position, they’re the most important in the game. They need to aggressively attempt to solve those problems.

In the meantime I don’t expect the Seahawks to prosper in 2011 and the Cardinals game in week three will basically determine the season. Win that game and maybe there will be a shot at repeating as division champs? Maybe they can find some momentum? Lose that and you’re looking at a possible (probable?) 0-5 start, potentially stretching to 0-6 in Cleveland after the bye. There are kind games on the schedule such as Cincinnati at home and Washington at home – despite week one wins neither team is a daunting prospects at the CLink. There are five more games against the rest of the NFC West. Yet I do feel this team is set for an arduous campaign and maybe in the long run that won’t be such a catastrophe if they can fill one of those enormous holes? That’s such a lottery though, which is why the concept of ‘suck for Luck’ still doesn’t interest me much.

I’ll update this post as games conclude. I’m currently running through tape of Alabama against Penn State and I’ve got Michigan/Notre Dame for later. Expect some thoughts on individual prospects over the next few days. JMPasq has supplied tape on Nick Foles’ performance against Oklahoma State on Friday. Regulars will know I’m not a fan of Foles – and his performance in this game did nothing to change that. I’ve given him a late round grade. Check out the tape and here’s what’s happening today…

Two of the best wide receiver prospects in a decent group  for 2012 faced off in the Rutgers/UNC game. Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) continued his fast start to the new season with 13 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. At 6-2 and 215lbs, he carries a fairly unique skill set and the production is starting to match the potential. He stood out as a true freshman and I’ve followed his progress since and he certainly appears to be benefiting from a more settled QB situation. It’s interesting that for the second week in a row he didn’t have a single rushing attempt – he’s being used as an out-right receiver this year instead of a dual threat.

Dwight Jones (UNC) is also making up for lost time with a much more consistent start to 2011. He had 6 catches for 135 yards today, including a 66-yard touchdown grab. Jones has good hands and excellent deep speed and if he can maintain this kind of early season pace he’ll pick up real momentum for next year’s draft.

Quarterback Geno Smith and West Virginia struggled a bit against Norfolk State but recovered to put up big numbers. Smith went 20-34 for 371 yards and four touchdowns. He also looked sharp against Marshall last week and his stock will continue to improve in Dana Holgorsen’s wide open offense. Kirk Cousins and Michigan State had a much easier afternoon against Florida Atlantic going 16-21 for 183 yards and two scores in a 44-0 win. I’ll take a look at the tape on Monday and have some thoughts on Cousins’ performance.

Vinny Curry and the rest of the Marshall defensive line made life difficult for Austin Davis and Southern Miss in a 26-20 victory. Curry was among the sacks in a dominating display and also recorded a saftey. The game was littered with errors including three interceptions by Davis, but he was far from the main culprit for the Golden Eagles and ended with a stat line of 25-49 for 309 yards and two touchdown passes.

Andrew Luck threw an interception against Duke but responded with four scores in a comfortable win. Luck will remain a Heisman favorite as long as Stanford keep winning and he maintains big numbers against weaker opponents – today he went 20-28 for 290 yards. It wasn’t as good a day for Logan Thomas (QB, Virginia Tech) who struggled in a close 17-10 win over ECU. He went 8-20 for just 91 yards and an interception. He added 61 yards on the ground. Better news for another player who may end up being an outsider for the 2012 draft – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State) – he couldn’t lead the Wolfpack to victory over Wake Forest but did achieve a 24-41 passing display for 315 yards and three touchdowns.

South Carolina and Georgia played out a thriller that ended in a 45-42 win for the Gamecocks. Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) had an interesting game, scoring a 68 yard rushing touchdown, getting a further score on a fumble recovery and icing the game by grabbing an onside kick – quite a day for someone predominantly known as a speedy pass rusher. Alshon Jeffery had four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown but Stephen Garcia generally struggled at quarterback going 11-25 for 141 yards and two interceptions.