Category: Featured (Page 11 of 11)

John Schneider admits he'd like to trade down, but it's easier to trade up

Seahawks GM John Schneider held the first of two pre-draft press conferences today. It’s Schneider’s second draft with the team, working in partnership with Pete Carroll. You sense this could be a defining off-season, despite the current lockout which may or may not be ended prematurely via an injunction this week. Last year the key task was to hit on two top-15 picks to launch the start of a new era. With mission accomplished in that sense, the Seahawks now face the daunting proposition of following it up despite picking in the late first round.  

“The playoff game was very exciting, special stuff, but it makes the building process more challenging.”  

Eric Williams from the Tacoma News Tribune writes that Schneider ‘admitted to cringing a little’ when the Seahawks defeated St. Louis in the final game of the regular season. Defeat would’ve secured the 8th overall selection, instead they could pick no earlier than 21st. The playoff victory over New Orleans essentially earned the 25th overall selection.  

Inevitably the discussion turned to quarterbacks. The Seahawks currently have Charlie Whitehurst contracted for 2011 on a deal worth around $4 million. Matt Hasselbeck is a free agent, as is JP Losman who acted as the team’s third quarterback for most of last season. Nate Davis was released shortly after signing a deal having left the San Francisco 49ers.  

“Quarterback is the hardest position to evaluate. It’s not an area you could panic for but not an area you can overlook.”  

“It’s a unique year in the quarterback class because the guys available are so different.”  

ESPN’s Mike Sando asked Schneider about Pete Carroll’s ideal for the position, a question he seemingly believed to be about Ryan Mallett. Sando: 

“Schneider apparently thought I was asking whether the slow-footed Ryan Mallett would fit in Seattle’s offense, but I had no one in mind. Schneider: ‘From a pure, uh, I’m reading your mind with this, I’m going to be really careful how I answer this. Pete and (quarterbacks coach) Carl (Smith) coached Drew Bledsoe, who is not a big movement guy, and he had his best season. I don’t know if Pete has ever had a guy that is a big-time runner, huge movement guy. I wouldn’t slam any of the guys he has had. But everybody likes a guy that can move, but a lot of these guys have compensating factors. So the guy that you’re thinking about would be one of those guys that has compensating factors.'”  

Here are some other selected quotes and notes from John Schneider’s press conference:  

“Personally, I would like to move back because I have confidence in our ability in the middle rounds to do good stuff and we have a coaching staff that has good teachers and they are excited to have these guys.”  

Schneider admitted it would be easier to trade up in the draft than trade down.  

On the topic of defensive backs, he stated that height was the primary criteria unless a player is versatile enough to play well in different scenarios. I wonder if this brings Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) back into contention at the end of round one. He’s shorter than Seattle would like (5-9) but he’s a better open field tackler than most cornerbacks. Struggles against the tall, physical Malcolm Floyd were slightly over-blown on second viewing.  

He suggested a good draft ultimately means bringing in impact players who keep cohesion in the locker room. Schneider also admitted the hardest part of the evaluation process is to work out how much a player respects the game.  

Charlie Whitehurst will get an opportunity to compete for the starting position. This isn’t a revelation – he’s the only contracted quarterback on the roster at the moment. Schneider: “Did he have his struggles during the season? Sure. I mean he hasn’t played a lot of regular-season games. So, I thought one of the coolest things he did was come into that Arizona game and bring us right down the field. Now, the series didn’t end that great. He threw a ball he’d like to have back. But I’ve been around a three-time MVP that wasn’t a great decision maker early on in his career, but he became a much better decision maker.”  

“To be a consistent Championship team, we have to get better.”  

“We’d like to be younger. We didn’t have much depth last year. We want a young, tough, smart, fast, aggressive group.”  

On Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Mark Domenik suggesting as many as six quarterbacks could go in round one: “Mark is a good friend of mine and if he was sitting right here, I would say, ‘He’s got a quarterback, so he wants a lot of guys to be taken. He wants the offensive linemen to fall.”  

The Seahawks would like to come away from the draft with at least one defensive and offensive lineman.  

Schneider said discipline would be key and not panicking to get a quarterback. He used the example of Green Bay drafting Aaron Rodgers at #24 in 2005 and the fact they wouldn’t trade up for him. Of course, it’s easier to say things like that when you’re starting quarterback is Brett Favre, who never missed games for the Packers.  

Final thoughts  

The Seahawks were nothing but transparent before the 2010 draft. It was common knowledge they’d gone bowling with Russell Okung after a trip to Texas (presumably to see Earl Thomas among other things). You’re never going to learn that much from these press conferences because teams are not going to gift wrap their plans to the rest of the world ten days before a draft. I suspect, however, that there’s not a great deal of spin here – there merely isn’t a great deal of hard information. Seattle probably would like to trade down for a good price if the options at #25 aren’t ideal. It probably is easier to be aggressive and approach another team about moving up than it is to be on the receiving end of an acceptable deal.  

I thought the response to Mike Sando’s question was interesting if only for the caution with which it was answered. Sando: “Schneider thought long and hard, choosing his words carefully when I asked him to what extent Carroll, as a defensive head coach, has a vision for what he wants in a quarterback. I wanted to know how that vision might differ from the visions an offensive-minded head coach might have for a quarterback.”  

This may be the most interesting portion of the press conference. Clearly the Seahawks have to make the quarterback position a priority. With or without Matt Hasselbeck, this regime’s success or failure will probably be defined by it’s ability to adequately fill the position for 2011 and beyond. They can talk about offensive lineman and defensive lineman – I would wager that the most heated discussions taking place in the front office right now are about the direction at quarterback. Is there a guy in this draft we should invest our faith in? Will we need to trade up? Who among the second tier prospects, if anyone, has that starter potential? What deals can we arrange once a new CBA is complete or a court injunction ends the lockout? These are surely the kind of questions being asked. 

That slightly tentative and guarded response to Sando’s question may hint that it’s a subject that still hasn’t been fully resolved. Maybe they have come to a decision and they just don’t want to give anything away? Of course, as with the other topics, neither would be a surprise. Yet the importance of the decision cannot be underestimated.  

New look for the blog  

You may have noticed the new home page for Seahawks Draft Blog. In future when you click www.seahawksdraftblog.com this is where you’ll arrive. It’s a way to push feature articles and a few other things. Of course it also means clicking ‘Blog’ on the new menu bar to arrive at the actual articles. If you want to avoid the homepage and visit the site as you did normally, it’s pretty simple. All you need to do is type www.seahawksdraftblog.com/blog into your address bar. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that, because I would like as many people as possible to visit the homepage which will continue to develop with new features. Feedback is always appreciated.

Andy Dalton a first round pick? Not for me.

Twelve months ago, Colt McCoy was a late first round pick. He was a winner in college, setting records galore for Texas. Forget the faults because this guy could win.

I was never a fan and thought he deserved a late round grade, but would probably settle in the fourth round due to the reputation and ability to ‘win’. During the season only Mel Kiper stuck by a high grade, consistently keeping him at #25 on his big board despite a largely negative view every else. He wasn’t really on the radar as a high draft pick because the flaws were pretty obvious.

He had a slow start to the off season having spent a large portion of it recovering from an injury picked up in the BCS Championship defeat to Alabama. Yet once McCoy recovered and participated in his pro-day, the hype machine kicked into gear. Suddenly he was being talked about as a late first round pick. Really? What about the tape? We’d all seen it and nobody really considered McCoy a first round talent previously. Physically not great, not accurate enough to compensate, too many mistakes. What gives?

Peter King was one of McCoy’s fans, touting him as a late first rounder. When asked in his MMQB article one week about the possibility of Tim Tebow going in the first round, King replied:

“I probably would pick McCoy if I had the choice. I think he’s getting vastly underrated entering the last round of evaluations of the quarterbacks.”

Todd McShay was at McCoy’s pro-day and filed this report for ESPN (see video below). Notice the term ‘West Coast Offense’.

Mary Kay-Cabot from the Cleveland Plain Dealer had this piece on McCoy before the draft:

“Most experts have McCoy ranked behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen, and projected to go in the second round. But if the Browns hope to land him — and there are strong indications they’d like to — they might have to either trade back from No. 7 or up from No. 38 to secure him late in the first round.”

22% of fans voting in this Minnesota Vikings poll wanted the team to draft McCoy at #30 overall, second only to Devin McCourty (29%) (well, they actually call him Derrick – I’m not sure how good Derrick McCourty is).

Draft Nasty mocked McCoy to #30 as well, stating:

“With the uncertain future of current quarterback Brett Favre, the Vikings may look to take the most accurate quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft class.”

Draft day arrived and by that point more and more people were projecting McCoy as a possible first round pick or at worst, an early second rounder. Mike Mayock from the NFL Network believed he would be an early second round pick. For two rounds McCoy waited. He saw Sam Bradford go first overall, but as this video shows– the patience was perhaps starting to thin out when Tim Tebow was the second quarterback off the board. The words used when Jimmy Clausen was the first quarterback taken on day two? “It’s crazy… nothing’s ever been easy.”

He lasted until the end of round three and was taken by the Cleveland Browns. Remember them? One of the teams supposedly who might be trading up into the bottom of round one.

When all was said and done McCoy went in the range the initial evaluations suggested – right in the middle of draft, perhaps a couple of rounds earlier than he probably should’ve done. He was a project without the great physical talent. Cleveland were starting a new era with a west coast offense, managed by Mike Holmgren as team president.

Fast forward a year and tell me the difference between the McCoy hype and all this ‘Andy Dalton in round one’ talk?

It started when John Clayton touted the possibility of Seattle taking one of the second tier quarterbacks in round one, including Dalton. It was a surprise but not so much in the context Clayton was debating. His view was that a reach may be necessary to fill the most important position and clearly taking Dalton there was a reach. My surprise was based around the thought that Dalton wouldn’t be there at #57. After all, this was a guy generously being talked about as a possible third or fourth round pick – perhaps later still.

Then came Trent Dilfer’s contribution.

“One of the reasons why he hasn’t generated as much momentum and hype is because what personnel and coaches do at this time of the year when they’ve kind of settle on who they want, they’re going to shut up about that guy. You’ll hear a lot of good stuff about (Arkansas’ Ryan) Mallett in the next couple weeks because they want to use him as a smoke screen. You’re going to hear a lot of good stuff about (Florida State’s Christian) Ponder because they want to use him as a smoke screen.

“At the end of the day, the good quarterback people in this league — I will not be wrong here — are going to be wanting Andy Dalton late in the first round or early second round if he happens to fall that far. I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong here. Andy Dalton will be taken in the first round.”

The hype season was upon us. It’s probably worth adding that Dilfer has back tracked on those comments just today, suggesting now that Dalton will probably go in round two.

Nevertheless, other people have projected Dalton to Seattle at #25. Don Banks in his last two mock drafts has gone in that direction.

We’re starting to hear the same things said about Dalton that we heard about McCoy. He’s a west coast guy, he’s a winner, he’s got ‘moxy’, the stats are good. Etc etc.

History is repeating itself.

For whatever reason, we get to this time of year and quarterbacks like Dalton get a sensational press. They’re considered the safe alternative to the big name quarterback – yet how many of these guys ever go on to be full time starters? It’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult. You can have all the wins in college, nice stats coming out of a spread offense and you can be a great guy. When all is said and done, you need physical talent and you need to be accurate.

Let’s hit the tape, courtesy as always of the impeccable Aaron Alosysius:

The tape shows every snap involving Dalton in a blow out win over San Diego State. The third and fourth passes in the video against are Christian Ponder-esque and will lead to picks at the next level. There are a lot of similar play calls, option to the running back and a short screen or slant to the left designed for yards after the catch.

What Dalton does well, as emphasised here, is a strike to the outside on a medium level route. He does generate some velocity on those passes and is generally accurate. The first two touchdown passes are well executed, a fade in single coverage and a quick throw to the right which the receiver takes advantage of. At the same time, neither is a particularly difficult pass to make. I actually prefer the third and fourth touchdown passes, when he zips a slant to the outside in tight coverage perfectly and completes a tougher fade to the outside.

However, there are a lot of throws that seem to miss high or wide that aren’t that difficult. On one play he throws about 10-yards out of the end zone on a roll out. The guy isn’t a lost cause by any means in terms of accuracy, but it’s not consistent enough. Let’s also remember the level of competition he’s facing.

One thing that’s not evidenced here and is something I’ve picked up on watching several other TCU games in 2009 and 2010 is Dalton’s inability to remain focused after an error. There have been times when he’s made a poor decision or turned the ball over and let it get to him. This was a bigger issue in 2009 and it hit his confidence during a game. He improved the following year, but it’s something I’d feel I had to monitor at the next level because he can be fragile at times.

So here’s how I judge Andy Dalton – he needs to try and become Matt Hasselbeck. That is the peak for him. Get into a strict and defined offense that is based on timing and short/intermediate routes. Master the offense over 2-3 years on the sidelines and hope for time and patience as a starter when you finally get that shot. Then you have to execute.

Hasselbeck was fortunate enough to spend all of his early career with the same coach and the same system and he had that drive and determination to master the scheme. It’s maybe one of Hasselbeck’s most under rated qualities that he’s a pure football guy with a very good grasp of the game. He worked hard to become a NFL starter as a 6th round pick, but he also understood and followed the information well enough to go with the ideal coaching.

When his career didn’t start brilliantly in Seattle, he had further opportunities. When the Holmgren offense was at it’s best in Seattle, Hasselbeck was at his best too. It was only a short window, but for a period he was among the top QB’s in the league.

Dalton needs all of the same fight, all of the same consistency in coaching and the time. Even then he’s going to struggle like crazy, because there aren’t many Matt Hasselbeck’s who make it in the league. So are you taking this guy in round one? Of course not. He’s not a physically gifted athlete with mind blowing potential. He’ll need an abundance of time and coaching. He’s not a faultless decision maker with great accuracy to make up for the lack of pure physical talent.

He’s the very definition of a mid/late round flier. Round one? Not for me.

The Seahawks are not going to invest their future in a guy like Dalton in round one. Could they see him as an option after that? Perhaps, but I suspect they want someone who can be a much greater x-factor presence on a much quicker time frame. Whatever your views on Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker, they are light years ahead of Dalton in terms of physical ability and having seen all three on the board, I believe they are also above Dalton in terms of understanding a pro-system.

I don’t want to labor this point too much, but look at Dalton in his discussion with John Gruden (see video below). He gives his favorite play as a basic ‘all-go’ route with essentially a deep read and a checkdown. It is such a simple play. As Gruden points out when the roll the tape, he doesn’t notice the easy checkdown that would’ve provided a solid 25-35 yards. Instead he forces a throw deep and should be intercepted. To quote Gruden, “Ed Reed is dunking that ball over the goal post.”

Ryan Mallett makes that check down. I’d urge people to watch his piece with Gruden and compare the white board breakdown to grasp the differences between the two in terms of that pro-understanding. Gruden hates rookie quarterbacks – it aided his departure from Tampa Bay – but look at his face light up when Mallett runs through a play and practises a hard count.

There’s the difference between what you would tentatively call a pro-ready quarterback and a guy who needs to spend a lot of time with a quarterbacks coach. A first round quarterback needs to be ready to start these days. If they aren’t, then they at least need to have a high ceiling with limitless potential. Dalton is neither.

Essentially I think he’ll end up in that round 3/4 range, as did McCoy. Maybe the lack of free agency does tempt a team to take him in round two? I just think if there is going to be a quarterback reach from the second tier, it’ll be on a guy like Colin Kaepernick who at least has the physical tools to match the production and ‘winning‘. If I’m wrong and Dalton does find a home in the late first round or the early second, I’ll have no issues coming onto the blog and admitting I was flat out wrong. We’ll find out in a couple of weeks when the 2011 draft kicks off. Until then I’m standing by the stance I’ve always had – Dalton at #25 is not going to happen.

Just over two weeks ago and time for this week’s mock draft. Only two more projections after this – one next week and then a final mock on April 27th.

To see this week’s two-round mock draft click here. There’s more on the update at the end of this post.

Mocks are all about predictions and projections, most of which we base on hunches and whatever information we can gather. I’ll never try and claim my mock is any better than the next man’s because in reality I’ll probably be right on a couple of things and miss on the rest. Nobody is different in that sense.

There are some things I’m pretty confident about though and I wanted to note them here. Four projections I feel comfortable putting in writing that I can nail my colors to. I’ll note them here and after round one I’ll dig this up and we’ll see how many came true.

Prediction #1

Four quarterbacks will be off the board by the half-way point in round one (#16 overall, currently owned by Jacksonville).

Cam Newton will be the first overall pick. Blaine Gabbert could go anywhere from #2 and Denver to #4 and Cincinnati, but I suspect he’ll be a Bengal unless someone moves up. Jake Locker will be drafted by the Washington Redskins unless someone moves above them. One of the Tennessee/Minnesota/Miami/Jacksonville quartet will draft Ryan Mallett.

The greatest opposition I’ve seen to this suggestion is that it’d go against the grain for four quarterbacks to be taken this early. Unlike most I actually think that is a very solid group of first round quarterbacks who can all have success in the league. With many teams needing a young franchise signal caller, I don’t have any issues projecting four will go in the top-16. I don’t expect Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick to go in round one.

Prediction #2

Tennessee will be a wildcard.

I think the Titans will make a move that surprises people. Most mock drafts I read have them taking Nick Fairley but I can’t see it. Their two biggest needs are quarterback and cornerback. Can they trade down into the mid teens and look to draft Ryan Mallett? It’s a possibility and I wouldn’t rule out Mallett or Locker at #8 anyway. Would they move up to take Blaine Gabbert? Something else I wouldn’t say is unlikely.

If they stay put I think Julio Jones is a great option considering Kenny Britt’s recent arrest. Let’s not forget that even when Britt was performing last year, the Titans claimed Randy Moss from waivers. Tennessee hasn’t been afraid to draft players with character problems in the past and considering their need in the secondary it really wouldn’t surprise me if Jimmy Smith was the pick at #8. He has top-1o talent and elite potential.

Prediction #3

The Seahawks will trade out of the #25 pick one way or another.

I think a move up the board is still possible and I think they’d be willing to consider using the #57 pick or future draft stock. If you believe the rumors, Seattle was willing to pay a lot to get Carson Palmer including multiple picks in rounds one and two. If there was interest in Kevin Kolb, any deal would probably include more than just the #25 pick. If the Seahawks are serious about addressing the need at quarterback I think there is a possibility they trade up and make a bold move.

Michael Lombardi made some interesting comments on Seattle and Ryan Mallett in a conference call today, referenced here by Eric Williams of the TNT:

Prediction #4

If any of the big names fall it’ll be Von Miller, Nick Fairley or Prince Amukamara.

With Fairley it’s the character concerns. Only today we learn via Adam Schefter that he was late for the combine and some meetings. He rejected the chance to work out in Miami. These are not good signs and while he could easily remain a top-1o pick I don’t think he’s helped himself much if these reports are true. I’ve had him as low as #18 to San Diego at the end of March – something that seems to be appearing with greater regularity these days.

Nobody batted an eye lid when 17-sack Von Miller didn’t declare for the 2010 draft, in fact the scouting reports were critical overall. He was given a third round grade by the draft committee. Twelve months later and the same player is suddenly a top five pick. His meteoric rise is similar to that of Aaron Curry – although Miller’s pass rushing skills at least justifies the hype more than Curry’s ascent. I think there’s a chance Curry fell down the board had he not been taken by the Seahawks and the same may happen with Miller if he gets past Buffalo and Arizona.

I simply don’t rate Amukamara as highly as some other people. If there is a run on quarterbacks early, if Jimmy Smith is the consensus #2 to Patrick Peterson (I think he could be the #1 corner on some boards) and if a lot of defensive lineman go early, Amukamara could fall.

Mock draft thoughts

– I’m not comfortable with the Seahawks pick and I’m starting to wonder if that’s one of the reasons so many people are talking up Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder etc at #25. It’s hard to project anything but defensive lineman in the scenario I have playing out, but are the Seahawks really just going to essentially replace Brandon Mebane and rely on free agency (whenever that happens) to fill other needs? Is that not a sideways step? It’s not a convincing argument and is another reason why I think they could move up the board.

– Andy Dalton is not going to be a first round pick. I highly doubt he’ll be a second round pick. Watch the tape and tell me why he justifies the hype. This is a guy who’s greatest talent is ‘winning’. When that’s the big positive (alongside ‘moxy’) you know you’re in trouble. TCU should win games too – they have a great defense and generally play weaker opposition. My biggest concern with Dalton isn’t average physical qualities, a one read offense or limited wow-factor – it’s the way he dwells too much on mistakes and let’s them develop during a game. I’ve always considered him a R5-6 type guy, the same grade I gave to Colt McCoy last year. I’d guess Dalton will go in the same range as the Texas QB (late third, early fourth) and he should be taken after Ricky Stanzi.

– Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) is again the pick in round two. It caused a few mixed feelings last week. I think the value at the bottom of round two comes at receiver. Orlando Franklin and Marcus Cannon are alternatives, but I still rank Hankerson, Titus Young and Edmund Gates higher. The lack of obvious options at the end of round two may encourage the Seahawks to move up in the first round if there’s one guy they have to have.