I wanted to publish an updated horizontal board this week with thoughts on each position group. The Senior Bowl in Mobile will heavily impact the board — with grading adjustments and new players to study.
Here’s the latest update (click the image to enlarge):
Players in red have a known injury
The following draft eligible players have stated their intention to stay in college for next season:
Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU)
Logan Jones (C, Iowa)
Parker Brailsford (C, Alabama)
Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
Josh Kreutz (C, Illinois)
Harold Perkins (LB, LSU)
Haynes King (QB, Georgia Tech)
Cade Klubnik (QB, Clemson)
Dontay Corleone (DT, Cincinnati)
Evan Stewart (WR, Oregon)
Nicholas Singleton (RB, Penn State)
Kaytron Allen (RB, Penn State)
The following players are transferring:
Mark Gronowski (QB, Iowa)
Jalen Catalon (S, Missouri)
Carson Beck (QB, Miami)
Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)
Tyler Van Dyke (QB, SMU)
Billy Edwards Jr (QB, Wisconsin)
Jacob Zeno (QB, Texas A&M)
Miller Moss (QB, Louisville)
Patrick Payton (EDGE, LSU)
Position-by-position thoughts
Quarterbacks
The worst thing a bad team can do is reach for a QB when they don’t have an adequate supporting cast. I think there’s a reasonable chance one or two quarterbacks go in the top-10 — but I do think some teams will think they’re better off drafting Abdul Carter, Mason Graham or Travis Hunter instead, then taking a chance on a quarterback like Jaxson Dart later on.
The teams I can see reaching on a quarterback are the likes of the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. However, I don’t think it’s out of the question these teams will draft for a different position in the top-10, then circle back on day two and pick a quarterback in a range they are more comfortable with. Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah, both citing league sources, this week suggested there’s a level of despair among teams in the top-10 about the quarterback class. McShay even suggested this could be another 2022, where teams resist reaching. I’d argue any quarterback taken in the first round would be a reach based on grading.
Drew Allar’s performance against Notre Dame will put him in a difficult spot. Is that how you want to end your college career? With a major damp-squib game? That said, it didn’t hurt Michael Penix Jr when his final tape was the Michigan blow-out a year ago. Allar will also likely lose his top target (Tyler Warren), best running back (Nicholas Singleton) and Penn State’s best pass rusher (Abdul Carter). If he goes back to college, will he have a supporting cast to make it worthwhile?
It’s very hard based on his fluctuating tape to give Allar a first round grade. He is more about potential than someone you feel confident about. The talk before the Notre Dame game was he would likely turn pro, despite originally saying he’d return to college. We’ll see if his final game changes things. I haven’t included him on the board.
I’ve dropped Quinn Ewers a round since the original horizontal board because his play simply hasn’t recovered since he returned from injury. I went back and watched three of his games pre-injury at the start of the season and the difference is stark. He is unrecognisable to the player we’ve seen since his return. His throws had far more zip, he was more mobile and he was more confident and decisive. I think it’s pretty clear he’s been playing hurt, perhaps significantly, and this has impacted his play.
However, that’s the problem. We came into the season saying he needed to stay healthy and be more consistent. Neither has happened. There’s clearly natural talent in his arm but his size, injury record and inability to snap out of a funk is concerning. Someone will take a chance on bringing his talent out and eventually he’ll be worth a shot if he turns pro. Yet there are big question marks about his ability to start in the NFL and play to the lofty expectations that were set for him during High School recruiting. That said — there’s a reason those expectations existed. He wasn’t just a big-time recruit, he graded above Caleb Williams. Some scouting services gave him perfect grades, typically saved for freakish athletes like Jadeveon Clowney. Teams will always believe they can get the best out of players with natural talent.
I do think we’ll see quarterbacks drafted in rounds 2-4 this year. From a Seahawks perspective, I’m not sure this will be the year they end their drought of picking QB’s. They might prefer to try and trade for a younger player elsewhere, as they did with Sam Howell a year ago. Seth Henigan and Tyler Shough both have the kind of arm to warrant some intrigue. One of the two QB’s Schneider has taken, Alex McGough, was a Lane Kiffin product. Would they show interest in Dart? It’s worth noting that although Dart declared, he’s reportedly attempting to get another year of college eligibility to return to Ole Miss. How will teams balance out Dillon Gabriel’s lack of physical tools versus his mobility, creativity and massive college production? Max Brosmer really intrigues me but not necessarily for a team wanting to attack downfield. Then there’s Jalen Milroe — a great athlete, a brilliant runner but someone who hasn’t shown any ability to be able to throw consistently from the pocket.
Running backs
It’s clearly a loaded class. Nicholas Singleton showed against Notre Dame why I’ve had him graded in round two. He has special physical qualities, combining explosive power with speed, agility and a classic frame.
I’ve reassessed my thoughts on North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. I found his tape a bit boring — because UNC were boring this season. I didn’t see a lot of difficult games that they played in to provide the kind of test where Hampton could have a key game. I think I overly penalised him for that. The truth is, he has a perfect NFL running back body with the physical tools to match. I really value yards after contact and he ranked second only to Ashton Jeanty in that category. I think, on reflection, his best football will come at the next level as a lead back.
I think Kyle Monangai could provide real value to someone. I doubt he has the big-time testing numbers but his running style is as close to Marshawn Lynch’s as I can recall in recent years.
Even with Seattle’s generous depth at the position, I think they’d be wise to add a running back at some stage — even if it’s a later round pick. There’s depth and quality throughout this class and we might see multiple future starters taken in rounds 3-5 this year.
Wide receivers
There’s not the same depth at the top-end as we’ve seen in previous seasons but Texas’ Matthew Golden is someone I think could get into the first round mix if he opts to turn pro. He’s had a very consistent season, is regularly providing reliability and dynamism to the Longhorns and could easily be a day-one target for teams needing a receiver.
The Seahawks will likely part ways with Tyler Lockett in the off-season to save money but there are going to be potential replacements available in the rounds 3-5 range. I’m a big fan of UNLV’s Ricky White III and Texas Tech’s former Washington State wide-out Josh Kelly. Ja’Corey Brooks had a really good season for Louisville, while Elic Ayomanor and Tai Felton both combine savviness with consistency. If Xavier Restrepo lasts into the third round range, he’ll provide tremendous value for someone.
I’d also say — if the Seahawks re-sign D.K. Metcalf (I think they will, personally, but don’t shoot the messenger) and having already spent a top-20 pick on Jaxson Smith-Njigba, they shouldn’t be investing much more stock into this position. You don’t need three expensive, highly drafted receivers. Especially if you want to be more like Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers in identity.
Tight ends
It’s a good class, highlighted at the top end by Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, both of whom I think will go in the top-15. There aren’t 10 better players in this class than these two. Harold Fanin Jr is a good combine away from getting into the mix with them and I wouldn’t rule out Mason Taylor also forcing his way into the top group.
There’s been an increasing discourse online and on the radio about the possibility of the Seahawks drafting a tight end in round one. Talent-wise, it’s worth considering — especially if either of the top-two get into range. However, I can’t help but question whether we’ve been here before? The Seahawks need to reinforce their trenches, badly. Drafting a tight end in the top-20 will simply create another mouth to feed in the passing game. There’ll be continual discourse about whether they’re involved enough. Unless they’re prepared to trade Metcalf and create an opening for a secondary high-target weapon, I’m not sure this is a wise move. Especially in a class where you can find value with the likes of Elijah Arroyo, Luke Lachey, Gunnar Helm and Mitchell Evans in the middle rounds.
Brock Bowers is a rare gem. The other NFL leading tight ends in terms of yards — Trey McBride (pick #55), George Kittle (#146), Jonnu Smith (#100), Travis Kelce (#63), Sam LaPorta (#34), Tucker Kraft (#78), Mark Andrews (#86) and Pat Freiermuth (#55) were all selected outside of the first round. I can’t help but think the Seahawks are best to focus on the lines first and foremost and tap into the depth at tight end beyond their first selection. Arroyo and Lachey in particular could provide genuine value.
Offensive tackles
It’s a weak class and nothing has improved since the previous horizontal board. Josh Simmons, despite his injury, may well still be a top-15 pick simply because he’s the best pure left tackle available. Will Campbell almost certainly has to kick inside with his lack of length, while Kelvin Banks feels more like an Alijah Vera-Tucker type player than an out-and-out blindside blocker.
Texas’ right tackle Cameron Williams is regularly mocked to the Seahawks but this would be a selection that might bring me to tears. He hasn’t played many college football games and it shows — his technique is all over the place. He’s big and looks the part but Williams would be a ground-zero project. Plus, presumably you’d be kicking him inside rather than replacing Abe Lucas? He’s also been injured recently, limiting his playing experience even further. I don’t think he should declare. With more experience and further work on his technique — he could be a high pick in 2026.
Interior O-liners
Thankfully there’s a really decent crop of players available, giving the Seahawks a tremendous opportunity to add an impact lineman in the first two rounds.
It really comes down to what they’re looking for. My preference would be to take a page out of the LA Rams’ book. As documented here, they switched up their blocking scheme and went with size and power — remaking their entire line. They finished with the 12th ranked run-block win-rate. Seattle ranked 28th.
Give me big, physical finishers up front. A dream scenario would be to splash out on Kansas City’s free agent Trey Smith — ranked sixth among interior linemen in run-block win-rate — a 6-6, 321lbs tone-setter who only ran a 4.82 shuttle at his combine. Give me alpha types up front please, with size.
Tyler Booker is similar to Smith — they were both 5-star recruits, they’re both huge with plus run-blocking attributes. Pairing them together would be a statement of intent. I just don’t think Smith makes it to the open market.
The Lions also value size and aggression. Graham Glasgow (6-6, 315lbs), Frank Ragnow (6-5, 311lbs) and Kevin Zeitler (6-4, 332lbs) are not small linemen.
If they appoint someone like Klint Kubiak to run a scheme similar to Kyle Shanahan, they might want more athletic, mobile blockers. So the next offensive line appointment will dictate who we should look at.
Kelvin Banks could be a star guard. Josh Conerly is a ‘wow’ player to watch on tape but lacks the size to stick at tackle. He reminds me a little of Matthew Bergeron. Donovan Jackson is big, highly athletic and really talented. I’m a huge Grey Zabel fan. Jonah Savaiinaea has great feet for his size but I just want to see more of an edge as a finisher — he’s a hold-position type. I think he can be a very good guard but you want to see some nastiness.
There are a bunch of players who are tackles who might have to kick inside — Jack Nelson, Will Campbell, Aireontae Ersery, Armand Membou, Wyatt Milum, Emery Jones and Marcus Mbow for example. Campbell, Ersery, Membou and Mbow are all tremendous athletes and could really push themselves up boards through testing. Milum is aggressive and tough but his feet are sluggish and he over-extends and bends at the waist. I’ve pushed Membou and Mbow up — Membou in particular intrigues me.
The center group has been decimated with players opting not to turn pro. Jake Majors is an excellent talent and someone I hope the Seahawks will seriously consider on day two. Jared Wilson has tremendous upside. I think everyone is ready to see a commitment to this position — either in the form of bringing in an established free agent (Ryan Kelly), a veteran at a good age (Josh Myers) or a draft pick with the talent, like Majors, to be the answer for a long time.
There are day-one starters to be had here. I’d love to see the Seahawks hit on two linemen in this class. That first pick chimes well with the interior linemen available. Even if they trade down first, O-line has to be the leader in the clubhouse position for their top pick.
Defensive ends
I’m talking about bigger edge defenders here — and there are some very appealing options. The more I watch of Oregon’s Jordan Burch the more I like. He has everything athletically on a 6-6, 290lbs frame to be a special player. I think there’s more upside here than Mykel Williams has shown at Georgia and he’s proven to be a better finisher than Shemar Stewart — a classic ‘nearly made the play’ type.
These are three names to keep an eye on for Seattle’s first or second pick. It’s likely Dre’Mont Jones will be cut. He’s been a big disappointment — yet Seattle’s investment in him, plus the way they persevered with him during a poor 2024 season, suggests they’re determined to feature this type of defensive lineman, capable of lining up in different positions and providing an edge threat plus good run defense.
There are enough interior O-line prospects to wait until round two if you want to. Burch, Williams and Stewart are all players with rare physical attributes for their size. None are the finished product, yet all have the potential to be exciting players.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle went OL/DL or DL/OL with their first two picks. John Schneider has done this five times since 2010 — and he’s taken a trenches player with one of his top-two picks in all but two of his drafts.
EDGE rushers
I think there’s a strong chance Abdul Carter will be the #1 overall pick. After that, I think it’s a bit of an overrated group. James Pearce didn’t live up to expectations and while he looks the part and had a great pass-rush win percentage in 2024, I worry about his ability to set the edge and play all downs in certain schemes. Mike Green is a very interesting player from Marshall — how he tests and interviews will dictate how early he’s taken. I really like Josaiah Stewart but his testing and measurables will be important too. Princely Umanmielen, when he’s in the mood, can be a real force.
I’ve moved Jack Sawyer up a round because he’s been better in the playoffs but I think he, JT Tuimoloau and Landon Jackson just lack that special burst and quickness to warrant being graded higher than round three.
Defensive tackles
Mason Graham should be the first or second overall pick for me. After that, I’m a huge fan of TJ Sanders and Walter Nolen and believe both should be first round picks in this class — top-40 at worst.
Tyleik Williams is great to watch. He’s a warrior who brings it every play. His lack of length and the fact he’s more of a battler than a pass-rusher might limit his stock to round two. I really like Ty Robinson and think he could be a riser throughout the draft process.
I sat down last week and really dove into Ryle Mills. I think if he wasn’t injured again, I’d have him in round two. The splash plays stand out too often, as does his obvious athleticism. He’s a high-upside talent and frankly if the Seahawks went Booker/Burch/Mills with their top three picks — they might be on to a real winner (just make sure you sign a couple of veteran O-liners).
I think Kenneth Grant is overrated due to his presence on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list. I thought his tape was average. Deone Walker has an unorthodox body shape and I thought his tape was also fairly average in 2024. Derrick Harmon at Oregon, for me, is a day-two pick.
Unless names emerge, it’s not looking like a good nose-tackle class.
Linebackers
The more I’ve looked at this position group, the more the word ‘average’ feels appropriate beyond the top three names on my board.
On a positive note — Carson Schwesinger. Wow. I’ve continued to study his tape and I’ve not liked a linebacker as much as him since blog favourite Logan Wilson. If I was a good team picking in the late first, I would legitimately consider taking him. His field instinct, aggression, ability to run to the ball-carrier across the field, his tackling, his agility to drop — I think he’s going to be an excellent NFL linebacker and he’s one of favourite players in the entire class.
Jalon Walker’s season went a similar way to Malaki Starks’. As the year went on, I thought they both regressed. Even so, he’s shown enough that he can be an aggressive, blitzing dynamo. Jihaad Campbell is a tank. If he shows similar agility to Fred Warner, he could go very early.
The rest are much of a muchness. Sonny Styles has outstanding physical attributes. I’m a big fan of the way Demetrius Knight plays. I can’t really get excited about the others.
Cornerbacks
This is always the position I like to study the least during the season because I think the combine is the best way to study how players drop and transition — and when you’ve seen those workouts, you can then head back to the tape. As such, I tend to watch run-defense more during the season (who’s actually willing to do it) and how often players are around the ball.
Jahdae Barron’s run defense stood out to me and I really enjoyed watching Xavier Scott. Overall though, this doesn’t look like an exciting cornerback class. Hopefully players emerge in the next month or so.
Safetys
This is a decent group. Malaki Starks has played well within himself for a number of weeks. Nick Emmanwori could overtake him as the top safety — especially when he blows up the combine.
Kevin Winston Jr is immensely talented so it’s a shame he got injured. How will it impact his stock? Billy Bowman plays with his hair on fire, while Texas’ Andrew Mukuba is highly underrated. He might lack size but he flies to the ball.
Xavier Watts is like a magnet to the ball but testing will determine his upside. Too many people are sleeping on the versatile Abe Camara — while Lathan Ransom and Hunter Wohler are both really solid players.
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