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There’s a buzz around the Seattle Seahawks and it’s not being created by the product on the field. Sunday’s miserable 24-0 defeat in Pittsburgh was the viewing equivalent of being poked in the eye.

Several times. With a cactus.

As the game laboured to it’s pitiful conclusion, for the first time in my life watching the Hawks people began to wonder if the team genuinely is the worst in the NFL? The hype surrounding Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is so great, being worst has taken on a Holy Grail status. Who will win the competition to be that bad? Who will be the first to give up on their season and punt for Luck? Have the Seahawks already reached that level in sticking with the clearly struggling Tarvaris Jackson as the unquestioned starter?

Only as the Kansas City Chiefs lost more key starters and conceded even more points did people begin to wonder if this was even a competition. The Colts are kind of bad too – should we be worried here? Are they a ‘threat’ to Seattle’s absolute stinkiness? As the second half dragged on I started to notice fans across the NFL ranking the teams who were in the Luck sweepstakes. Some Seahawks fans were already noting ‘competitors’.

Let’s get one thing straight now – DO NOT ROOT FOR THE #1 PICK. STEP AWAY FROM THOSE THOUGHTS. NOW.

It is unhealthy. You will suffer much more stress than you ever will hoping for the team to win. When you’re investing so much time in taking satisfaction from your own team losing, that’s one thing. When you’re also stressing about other teams winning who you’d otherwise find insufferable, it takes on a whole new world. I more than anyone have banged on and on about needing to draft a franchise quarterback. I more than anyone have banged on about the Seahawks probably needing to draft that quarterback very early in the first round. Rooting to be the #32 team out of #32 however is like rooting for a lottery win. To some extent Seattle needs that early pick to really shift this rebuild into gear, but hoping to be bad enough to pick first overall will be like taking on a second full-time job.

Earning the opportunity to draft Andrew Luck will likely take more than being flat out bad. It’ll probably take an injury list similar to the ones being experienced in Kansas City or Indianapolis – key players missing for the season. The Seahawks do have a tough schedule, but they also play in the NFC West. The 2009 Seahawks were impossible to watch and went 5-11. The 2008 Seahawks were ravaged with an incredible injury list but had superior coaching and younger players and went 4-12. Being ‘just’ bad isn’t enough in my mind – as strange as that sounds – to be the worst in the NFL. It will take more.

I appreciate that people will point to the recently announced absence of Robert Gallery with a groin injury, continued issues with Russell Okung’s ankle and now Sidney Rice’s torn labrum. Others will direct focus at Tarvaris Jackson and say he’s reason enough the Seahawks are capable of earning the #1 pick. I still remain sceptical – I think the Seahawks look like a bad four win team that plays six games in the NFC West, not a truly chaotic 0-2 win team like Carolina last year that has to face divisional games against Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

And while many will prey that the Seahawks will ‘suck for Luck’, the truth is they could get away with ‘bad for Barkley’.

You can take it to the bank now that Andrew Luck will be the #1 pick next April. We can run through different teams that ‘might’ pass, but the reality is you’d need to own a young, elite passer to ignore a player as hyped as Luck. A team with a young, elite passer will not be picking #1 overall in all likelihood. Elsewhere, Indianapolis have seen what life after Manning looks like and it isn’t pretty. Other teams will see it as their opportunity to get the next big thing and players like Matt Cassell are not going to force your hand. Forget about picking anywhere other than #1 overall to get a shot at Luck.

Likewise forget about trading up. The stigma of passing on Andrew Luck for any amount of draft stock will be far greater than actually taking the guy and him not ending up as the greatest quarterback pick since Peyton Manning. Teams will want a kings ransom to put themselves in that position and even that might not be enough to tempt.

The Seahawks will have to be a complete and utter shambles 14-15 times in 2011, not twice, in order for a shot at the Luckmeister. I wouldn’t rule that out right now, particularly after the first two weeks. Yet they may only have to be bad enough to pick in the top five or ten to get a shot at Matt Barkley.

For starters, he simply isn’t receiving anywhere near the same level of hype as Andrew Luck. USC being out of the national picture even at 3-0 is keeping Barkley’s profile in check – almost like he’s admired from afar but not universally discussed. Without sanctions looming over the Trojans like a thick grey cloud, his 70% completions – 892 yard – nine touchdown – one interception start to the season would be generating much more hype.

Luck choosing not to declare for 2011 has created a monster that we didn’t see last year as he grew into a redshirt sophomore starting for a second season. This is Barkley’s first opportunity to consider the draft, thus keeping a lid on things for now. Opinion is also a lot more mixed on Barkley – and while I think there’s actually very little between the two top ranked quarterbacks – big name pundits like Todd McShay have not matched grades offered by the likes of Tony Pauline and Mel Kiper in the early first round.

While Kansas City won’t be able to resist the temptation to bin Matt Cassel in favor of Andrew Luck, they may be more hesitant when presented with the chance to draft Matt Barkley. It could be a similar story for Indianapolis who let’s not forget just invested in an insane contract for Peyton Manning. Drafting Luck would be a steal and set them up for years – but if he’s not there, would they rather concentrate on keeping Manning upright for the rest of his bumper deal with perhaps a franchise left tackle in Ryan Kalil instead? They did just draft Anthony Castonzo.

There are others – Minnesota for example – who would be less inclined to draft Barkley but would probably write off Christian Ponder if offered Luck. Suddenly you’re wondering if the Seahawks could finish possibly with a #4 or #5 pick and still have a very realistic shot at a quarterback with franchise potential. It’d still be a stress inducing wait, because I don’t rate any other 2012 eligible quarterback close to a top ten grade at this stage.

So yeah – this is a bad Seahawks team and only the most eternal optomist can expect they’ll pull off another miracle by somehow scraping into the playoffs. Sunday’s game against Arizona will essentially dictate the season – lose that game and an 0-6 record looks likely before the Bengals arrive in Seattle. Win it and suddenly that Atlanta home game offers an opportunity to maybe – against all odds – take a 2-2 record into road games against New York and Cleveland. It seems unlikely, of course it does, but those are the kind of margins between a team that stutters along just about competing in the NFC West and a team that has a shot at the #1 overall pick.

Having the chance to draft Andrew Luck may well put this team on track for a decade of challenging at the top table. I’m a Luck fan, but he’s not Superman and would have a lot to prove.  Yet if the Seahawks are bad enough to pick early – but not quite bad enough to be worst – there’s every chance they’ll still have a chance at getting their quarterback.

***NOTES***

Speaking of Matt Barkley, see the video above for his performance against Syracuse on Saturday. The USC quarterback threw five touchdown passes – equalling a school record. Although it’s only a highlights tape and doesn’t show bad plays, it’s worth noting how well Barkley goes through progressions. I’m not sure I’ve seen a college player work through 3-4 targets as well as Barkley and still manage to stay fairly decisive. It’s an under rated quality and one which will help him at the next level significantly, particularly if asked to start early.

Tonight I’ll be recording Arizona vs Oklahoma State. The Bowl game last season was a completely one-sided affair and I don’t expect much difference tonight. I don’t rate Nick Foles or the Arizona offensive scheme and Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day. Expect some thoughts on the game this weekend in the round-up. I’m also scheduled to watch tape of Alabama against Penn State, Notre Dame at Michigan and Florida Atlantic versus Michigan State this weekend.

The unquestioned star of week one in my view was Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) who had a tremendous performance against TCU. We’ll soon find out if it’s a sign of TCU’s defense taking a big step back, but it’s important to remember that in previous years they’ve had one of the best unit’s in college football – no exaggeration.

Griffin (I’m going to lose the ‘III’ bit for the rest of the article) is a redshirt junior despite currently featuring in his fourth year starting. He started 11 of 12 games a freshman and redshirted as a sophomore in 2009 after suffering an ACL injury. Due to the fact he’d only played three games that season, he was granted redshirt status and maintained an extra year of eligibility. What it means is he isn’t a lock to enter the draft next year despite four years of service at Baylor. Whether he can perform consistently as a passer will play some part, as will the feedback he receives from the draft committee.

His story is an interesting one – Griffin was born in Japan where his parents were stationed as US Army Sergeants. He moved around a lot – even living briefly in Washington state before finally settling in Texas. At high school he set state records for the 110m hurdles and on the AAU track and field circuit he won gold in the 110m and 400m hurdles. His athletic achievements stretch to a semi-final place for the US Olympic team in preperation for Beijing 2008. He received football interest from – amongst others – Oregon, Washington State, Stanford and Tennessee before committing to Houston. When coach Art Briles left the Cougars to join Baylor, he similarly switched to the Bears.

From a physical stand point he looks the part – 6-3 in height and around 215-220lbs in pads. He’ll celebrate his 22nd birthday just over two months prior to the 2012 NFL draft.

Before we get into his technical make-up, I want to stress that in studying Griffin on and off for the last 18 months I’ve never found anything but incredible praise for his leadership and character. This guy is the heartbeat of the Baylor programme, he leads by example and everyone looks up to him. Listen to one of his interviews and you won’t find a shred of arrogance or attitude, he’s a completely humble individual. That will help him when and if he ever gets a shot in the NFL because there are a lot of areas technically he will need to improve.

I was quite surprised how accomplished he looked throwing the football against TCU, because I’d not seen evidence of that previously. There were games when Baylor resorted to repetitive, simple screens and passes into the flats and I remember watching one performance (I forget who the opponent was) where Griffin barely threw a pass past the line of scrimmage. It was almost like he’d switched to rugby momentarily where the forward pass it outlawed.

My impression coming into this year was an athlete who on his day is capable of beating you with a combination of pass/run/athleticism, but ultimately he was a player with little future in the NFL apart from maybe a gimmick role. What we need to work out now is whether this is a matured, coached and capable throwing quarterback who is starting to blossom or whether this is going to be that one game where everything clicks and he dominates.

Perhaps the most striking thing was how little he attempted to run, it’s almost as if that option was taken away from him once Baylor felt confident throwing downfield. Griffin has been the very definition of a dual-threat quarterback, but was seemingly always more dangerous running. In this game, it was all about some pretty impressive deep passes, multiple touchdowns and big plays.

So onto the technique – which as I said needs a lot of work. The main thing that bugs me is the footwork, which is awful. Griffin has a habit of taking the snap, faking the hand off and jumping back with his legs spread out creating a situation where he’s immobile. The stance he gets into in preparation to throw is one that makes it so difficult to avoid pressure if he needs to make more than one read and move away from the pocket. It’s a really unnatural move for a quarterback and a major problem that needs to be worked on, he can’t take a snap and turn into a statue to throw.

Occasionally he also dances into this stance, as if he’s playing quarterback and also preparing to be in the background of Timbaland’s latest music video at the same time. I can’t stress enough just how bad this footwork is, how it prevents Griffin from really making the most of his throwing velocity, how it will make him a sitting target at the next level and bizarrely how it takes away one of the greatest aspects of his game – the ability to move around as a great athlete. This alone will set him back years of work – perhaps 2-3 solid years of practise and improvement – before he’s ready to truly face a starting NFL defense.

Having said that, it looks like he has worked to get stronger in the upper body and therefore gets more zip on those passes. When he was given a clean pocket and time to throw in this game, he actually did an excellent job whether it was throwing deep, finding open targets or even going through the odd progression. His ball placement was very good and he allowed Baylor’s playmakers a chance to thrive. The footwork would be even more of a concern if he didn’t flash some nice ability throwing the ball. If he can play half as well as he did here for the rest of the season, then he has a chance to spark some interest.

He gets the ball out fairly quickly and his release point is fine but not ideal. There were some occassions where he threw slightly more 3/4 than you’d hope for under pressure, but that’s to be expected especially if you need to get the ball out quickly.

The offensive scheme he works from is alien to the NFL, lot’s of option plays and one-read stuff. Alongside the footwork he’ll need a lot of time to adjust taking regular snaps from under center, reading a defense and learning to make more than one quick read and then resorting to a check down.

Teams love athletic quarterbacks who can make unpredictable plays. If they also limit turnovers in college and have the kind of personality that attracts coaches, then they get drafted. Griffin isn’t going to have a TCU game every week but it’s a good start and he’s at least showing improvement and progression as a quarterback. That too will perhaps make a team or two wonder – how good could he be if he continues this upward trend? I came into the year thinking he’d be an UDFA or low round level prospect, but if nothing else in week one he flashed enough to make you consider a home in the middle rounds – even if he will be a substantial project.

Tony Pauline gives Griffin a round 3-4 grade, stating: “Athletic quarterback with a developing game. Has the arm strength necessary to make all the passes, accurate on his throws and also dangerous carrying the ball. Has shown consistent improvement since his freshman season.”

I also noticed Pauline giving some praise to one of my favorite players, Fresno State’s defensive tackle Logan Harrell. I included him on my ’50 to watch’ list for 2012 and see him as a potential pass rushing interior sleeper. Pauline: “Hard-working, tough interior lineman that shows a lot of quickness and explosion in his game. Has an upside and could surprise with a big senior season.”

I feel for you, Tarvaris

I will be taking a second look at the Vikings game tomorrow and perhaps my perceptions will change slightly. However, I came away from the game with a few thoughts and some concerns.

The offense looked poor, rhythmless and lacking focus. This isn’t a big surprise and major context is required here – we’ve not seen anything like a natural off-season and groups are being put together on the run. Teams that have a long term structure such as New England and Pittsburgh will likely dominate this upcoming season simply because of familiarity. Teams that are rebuilding like Seattle are going to suffer.

Yet there’s still something about the Seahawks offense that bothers me. The offensive line was flat out bad. For me it’s further evidence of a point I’ve often made amid constant promotions of ‘building through the trenches’ – that lines are not built around high picks and instant chemistry doesn’t exist. The best offensive lines in the league blend talent, execution, consistency, health and pure time on the field to create a perfect storm. You can’t just throw picks and dollars at the offensive line and hope to turn a major weakness into an overnight success.

The Seahawks have maybe the most expensive group in the NFL in terms of draft stock, yet you couldn’t tell last night. There’s going to be teething problems for a while and this is just something we’re going to have to live through. Hopefully James Carpenter and John Moffitt develop, Max Unger becomes a solid center and Russell Okung stays healthy. It may be that some of those guys don’t work out. Either way we’ll have to roll with the punches because this isn’t getting sorted any time soon. Enough stock and energy has been placed in the line and it’s time to let the things grow naturally. Seattle’s continuing issues on the offensive line are not going to be solved with even more first round picks.

When Sidney Rice and Zach Miller were signed, together with the investment and effort made to improve the line, I wondered if the Seahawks were creating an environment for a quarterback to at least be competitive. This was a reckless judgement on my behalf that went against everything I’ve argued in the past. Maybe I got caught up in the post-lockout euphoria coinciding with Seattle becoming big players during free agency? Whatever the cause, it was my mistake.

Tarvaris Jackson had basically no opportunity what so ever to succeed against Minnesota. Those still grumbling about Matt Hasselbeck playing elsewhere should be relieved their favorite former Seahawk isn’t faced with the situation that Jackson had last night. In fact Jackson’s ability to actually scramble away from pressure is looking more and more like a major positive, just because it at least extends the play momentarily giving him a slightly better chance than nil to make a completion or run for positive yardage. The Seahawks signed some very good players in free agency and certainly I cannot criticise the franchise for significantly upgrading several positions. Yet it comes back to the big issue I have always had with this type of rebuild. It is mind blowingly difficult to improve every single area of a team in order to create an environment fit for a fill-in quarterback to succeed.

People love to quote the New York Jets and point to Mark Sanchez as a counter. What they don’t realise is that the Jets are the poster example of the exact opposite argument. What was the first thing Rex Ryan and the Jets did upon their marriage? They made an aggressive trade to get Mark Sanchez. They then built around their quarterback, adding a number of big name veterans and developing a patented Ryan defense. Inheriting an offensive line containing two former first round picks is not ‘building’ a team before drafting a quarterback. The Jets did it the right way – get your quarterback, establish a direction and try to make his life easier. The Jets glorious success and the fact Sanchez hasn’t put up amazing numbers clouds the truth somewhat, but that’s to Ryan’s credit for doing such a great job building around his QB.

Look at New Orleans – a team going nowhere fast a few years ago. Sean Peyton arrives, the first thing they do is sign Drew Brees and establish an instant identity to build around. Championship.

The Atlanta Falcons – left with a severe Michael Vick sized hangover and awful football team, they go from bad to contender with one inspired move – drafting Matt Ryan. This enables them to play to their quarterbacks strengths and limit his weaknesses. They knew Ryan could manage a possession-based offense that controls time of possession. They get a power running back in free agency and then supply Ryan with an elite tight end, a new left tackle and most recently another dynamic weapon at receiver. Who would bet against that formula winning a Championship in the next few years?

Look across the league at the teams who have gone from bad to contending and a common theme emerges – they built an offense around their quarterback. The Seahawks appear to be doing the exact opposite.

A quarterback will make up for weaknesses elsewhere. They control so much of a game that a talented signal caller can manipulate things to his favor. A team that has invested in strength everywhere but the QB rarely bails out bad quarterbacking. It is much harder to win being great at several positions than it is to win being good at just one position – behind center.

So far the Seahawks regime has pumped two first round picks into the offensive line. They’ve made a big splash at receiver with a second round pick and a free agent grab and they’ve traded for a big name running back. They’ve gone through two offensive coordinators and two offensive line coaches. They’ve signed a tight end to a deal comparable to that awarded to Antonio Gates.

Yet at quarterback they’ve coasted along.

The trade for Whitehurst was promising in that if nothing else it was aggressive. Yet the investment has never been matched with an opportunity to prove it was all worthwhile. The only other significant move was to sign a quarterback seemingly based around the fact he was familiar with the new offensive coordinator and was mobile. That relationship between Bevell and Jackson leads me onto another grumble which I’ll come onto in a moment.

There seems to be a faceless vision for the future at quarterback. We know the Seahawks want someone who can move around in the pocket, that has been made clear. Yet when you build a team around a vision without actually committing to it’s central figure, you end up backing yourself into a corner. What if the team is well placed to draft a potential franchise quarterback who doesn’t match the criteria? Do you avoid them and prolong the agonising search? Or do you rip up the blue print and start again in spite of what you’ve built towards so far? At the moment I’m a little bit concerned that the Seahawks’ grand plan will forever be incomplete until they have ‘that guy’ at quarterback.

And to counter myself slightly I appreciate the lack of options the Seahawks have had so far regarding quarterbacks. Drafting 25th overall took the team out of any potential race for the Gabbert group this year and the 2010 class was just flat out poor. But eventually they either need to pull the trigger or they need to make things happen by being aggressive. This team will not be able to fully rebuild with stop gaps and re-treads at quarterback.

What confuses me a little is that while the Seahawks move along this off season, they appear so tied to Jackson. Where’s the competition? Isn’t that the mantra of this organisation? I understand the thinking behind backing Jackson – less time to work out the offense, his familiarity with Bevell etc etc. Even so, it seems somewhat selective and hypocritical that this isn’t an open competition. What if Whitehurst is the better guy? Is it really beyond comprehension that the much maligned Jackson isn’t the best option? Is Carroll now handcuffed to Jackson for 2011 just because of the Bevell connection? How does it relate to Sidney Rice, given how he was almost certainly recruited on the basis he would get to play with his friend?

Are we creating an environment of competition for some unless you’re a coaches favorite? Carroll has done a great job showing no defining loyalty to his USC guys, but does that extend to other coaches and their guys? If you make competition the heartbeat of the team, does it weaken the beat if it appears to be an inconsistent message?

This brings me on to the point I said I’d eventually get onto. Do the staff under Carroll have too much input on personnel?

My own view is that a NFL franchise needs a long term vision beyond it’s coaching staff because there are constant changes in that department. Appointing a General Manager is supposed to be a long term plan. Coaches tend to come and go a lot more regularly without instant success. You also have to factor in that succesful DC’s and OC’s will be poached.

When the Seahawks appointed Alex Gibbs last year, they went about making the offensive line in his vision, which Carroll agreed with. That completely changed when he abruptly departed and since then it’s changed again with Tom Cable coming in. Gibbs, Cable and Jeremy Bates have all had a go at designing a successful offensive line. Carroll wants a zone blocking scheme, but that in fairness is so vague and only scratches the surface. Why in just 12-18 months has this team lurched from one type of player to another, one ideology to another on it’s offensive line? Does there not need to be consistency and a departure from a position coaches vision to a franchise vision?

It appears Cable had strong input into the team’s two early draft picks and the signing of Robert Gallery and Zach Miller. Darrell Bevell must have had significant input into the signing of Jackson and Rice. What if in 12-24 months it’s two others trying to run Seattle’s offense? Do you start again by bringing in more favorites and changing ideas? It’s not like there hasn’t been major turnover within Carroll’s staff so far, so how can you rule such a proposition out?

The offense in fairness does seem to be being built around a master vision from Carroll, but it’s the staff below putting it together. Is that really a good idea? Of course coaches have input, but in Seattle they appear to have carte blanche.

As the Seahawks build this offense towards hopefully a productive unit, they’re going to need to roll with the punches and stay on track. Is it wrong to be slightly concerned that the major influencing factors in this personnel rebuild right now are not necessarily the team’s GM and Head Coach?

After a long 24-hours of negotiating, the Seahawks today signed former Raiders tight end Zach Miller for a deal believed to be worth $35m with $17m guaranteed. That’s a better contract than Antonio Gates is receiving in San Diego. It’s another ambitious move by the Seahawks front office.

I noted yesterday that I think Miller upgrades the position. That’s not a slur on John Carlson, I just happen to believe Miller is capable of becoming one of the best tight end’s in the league. He’s got a Jason Witten level of potential and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the team’s leading receiver next season. He’s a playmaker. He’ll find holes in coverage and exploit them. He’s capable of breaking off a run after the catch – unusual for the position. He has an 86-yard reception. He’s not an incredible blocker, but then the Seahawks invested a lot of money in the offensive line so that the tight end could be more of a threat as a receiver. He’s only 25 and doesn’t turn 26 until December.

This is just another weapon to add to a rapidly growing list. Fans and the media are starting to look at this offense with a little fear (finally). They may not admit it, but the fear is there. You can feel it among the other NFC West teams. The people mocking the Tavaris Jackson signing are suddenly wondering if his life has been made easy enough to succeed. Sidney Rice… Mike Williams… Zach Miller… Marshawn Lynch… a developing offensive line. Sounds good to me.

Rotoworld’s Evan Silver tweeted this shortly after the Miller signing was announced:

Seahawks creating a nice foundation for Luck or Barkley last year. Zach Miller & Sid Rice both only 25 years old.

I think it’s fair to say that the plan for this team is not to be in position to draft either. How else can you describe all these positive moves in free agency? Let’s be realistic here, even if we are fans of the team – this Seahawks offense is not going to be anywhere close to being bad enough to draft first overall, which is what it will take to draft Andrew Luck. If Matt Barkley performs as well as expected this year at USC, he could be the second overall pick. Again, the Seahawks are not going to be in that region.

A lot of people talk about the ‘brutal’ schedule (I have used that word myself) but when you actually break it down, is it really that bad? Six games against a weak NFC West. Games against Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Dallas. That’s nine games there that don’t scare me, how about you? Tougher games against Philadelphia, Baltimore and Atlanta are all at home – and we saw what home field advantage can do in last season’s playoffs. Seattle travels to Chicago again, where they won in the regular season last year before being pummelled in the playoffs. The other two games are particularly daunting at Pittsburgh and the New York Giants.

There are a lot of tough aspects to that schedule, but it’s far from the mission impossible ‘road to Luck’ some people believe. Right now I wouldn’t be surprised if they won five or six games, which would be mediocre. Would it be a total shocker if they won eight or nine instead? Can they go 4-2 in the NFC West again and beat Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland? Sure – and that’s seven wins, as many as they had last season. Can they win another at home to reach eight wins? Why not?

The reason for this level of measured optimism (notice I’m not projecting a ridiculous 10-12 wins) is purely down to the offense. I’m not saying it’s finished article or completely ready just yet. However, if you had a quarterback with any kind of reputation on this roster – would people be talking about the Seahawks as a dark horse in the NFC? Absolutely.

And really that’s the only thing holding back anyone from making that leap of faith. Tavaris Jackson and/or Charlie Whitehurst won’t be able to complain about a lack of weapons next season. This is a fantastic opportunity for a quarterback to make their mark without a high level of expectation. You know what? Maybe Jackson has enough at his disposal to actually, you know, succeed? Is that really so bold a suggestion?

Although quarterback won’t necessarily be the final piece (the Seahawks still need more on the defensive line and possibly the secondary), if the front office does opt to make a big QB splash in next years draft – whoever they take will be coming into and offense with a lot of talent hitting it’s prime.

A final point for today – what happens now with John Carlson? That’s the big question many people are wondering. Cameron Morrah played well when called into duty last year and is still young and growing. Anthony McCoy had first round level talent at USC and fell only because of character concerns. Both players are cheaper and younger than Carlson and more likely to accept supporting duties alongside Miller.

Carlson’s contract expires next year and with today’s big splash, it seems unlikely he’ll return. Do you try to deal him now knowing he’ll return nothing in the off season? Or do you try to find a role for him alongside Miller?

I’m torn on this one, because I believe Carlson is in that grey area of being a luxury as a backup but not quite someone you make a focal point of the offense (see: Miller signing). I would love to witness McCoy get some action this year and see Morrah’s role expanded if possible. Holding onto Carlson if a deal can be done may be unnecessary.

Even so, what can his value possibly be? Former first round pick Greg Olsen (who is younger than Carlson) made Chicago only a third round pick when he was recently traded to Carolina. I suspect you’d get little more than a 5th rounder for Carlson considering how dry the tight end market has been to this point.

John Clayton is still banging the Osi Umenyiora drum, suggesting the Seahawks could trade Carlson to New York with a draft pick for the pass rusher. It just doesn’t seem like the kind of move this team would make. Umenyiora is approaching 30 and would command a huge contract. He’s not young and hitting his peak and his better days may be in the past. Umenyiora is the kind of player I’d spend money on in free agency or invest a token late rounder, because there could be an easy get out down the line. However, spending something like a third rounder and John Carlson to acquire him would make little sense for a team that is still rebuilding.

Clayton also touted Seattle would lead the race for Ray Edwards, yet they seemingly showed little interest before he signed for the Falcons.

Besides, with the improvements made on offense – the Seahawks may need all of their 2012 picks to make that next ambitious move – trading up the board next April to get that franchise defining quarterback. The final piece perhaps of this offensive jigsaw. The thing that pushes this offense towards elite.

***UPDATE***

John Boyle has a Tweet containing Pete Carroll’s view on the ‘John Carlson conundrum’. Carroll questions anyone who doesn’t think there’s a role for both Zach Miller and Carlson in the team. This is exactly what I would say if a.) I did indeed have a plan for John Carlson within the offense or b.) wanted to try and drive up his price for a potential trade.

Lofa Tatupu moved on this week, a tough but correct move

When the Seahawks parted company with Lofa Tatupu this week, there was an understandable level of disappointment among parts of the fanbase. Tatupu had an immediate impact for the team when he was drafted in 2005, helping Seattle to it’s first Super Bowl and making the Pro Bowl in each of his first three years. When he signed a contract extension worth $42m in 2008, he stated he wanted to end his career with the Seahawks. Tim Ruskell declared that Tatupu would be an integral part of the team for years to come – a cornerstone. The contract was signed a year before Tatupu would even hit free agency, a sign of the panic with which Ruskell viewed keeping Tatupu. 

Unfortunately, the franchise never truly felt the value of that six-year extension. When he wasn’t missing games through injury, he didn’t appear to be capable of the same impact that made him a star during his early years in the NFL.

Nevertheless, Tatupu had made a connection with Seahawks fans. It was a connection shared also with his teammates, who often credited the player’s leadership on and off the field. Head Coach Pete Carroll inherited Tatupu having already worked with him for many years. He’d seen the guy grow up through high school, enjoy success at USC and go onto the pro’s. Last season Tatupu played every game for his former college coach.

Yet here we are, Tatupu a free agent and in discussion with the Oakland Raiders on a potential move to the Bay Area. A surprise, but also absolutely the right move.

You can’t make room for favorites. You can’t stick by a player that’s earning more than his market value is worth. The best franchises know when to move on, not rewarding mediocre or worse performances simply because the player has an attachment to the team, the coach or the city. Sure, we’d all like to see a 100% healthy Tatupu at his best running this team’s defense. However, it’s not going to happen. Move on and let’s invest the money elsewhere.

We saw a similar move with Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks were prepared to give him another year, but quite rightly at the age of 36 and considering recent health and performance – one year was all they could commit to. Hasselbeck got a better offer in Tennessee and moves on.

I suspect we’ll see another example soon if the Seahawks use the money saved on Tatupu to sign tight end Zach Miller, who is visiting Seattle today. Miller is a playmaker and a much greater threat in the passing game than John Carlson. He’s been held back by substandard quaterbacking during his time in Oakland, but he has potential to be a top-end player at his position.

The fans have a lot of time for Carlson, but he’s just an average tight end who had great value for Tim Ruskell because he passed the strict criteria with which he judged his prospects. He’s neither a spectacular blocker or a great receiving threat, decent at both but exceptional at neither. There’s every chance if Miller is signed Carlson will be moved on. His value will not bring much in return, possibly a 5th round pick or maybe even less.

Yet the team will be making a ruthless upgrade, a vital upgrade.

This kind of move is so refreshing in Seattle, at least that’s how I see it. Tim Ruskell threw so much money at the wrong positions and lingered on his favorites. Tatupu got $42m, Leroy Hill was franchised and then signed a $38m contract. Aaron Curry signed a $60m deal when the Seahawks drafted another linebacker fourth overall. That’s a first, a second and a third round pick at the linebacker position, all drafted by Ruskell at huge expense. Look at the numbers – $140m committed to linebackers. The Seahawks also mortgaged a lot on getting a tight end for a coach who everybody knew was leaving in twelve months. The second and third round pick they spent on John Carlson ironically could’ve landed Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson and Jermichael Finley.

Throughout this period of the Ruskell era no quarterbacks came in other than David Greene in round three. The offensive line received barely a passing glance as Ruskell stuck by another favorite – Sean Locklear. Positions like defensive end and wide receiver had money thrown at it in free agency on ageing players past their best. Pete Carroll and John Schneider are now left to deal with the mess and it’s good to see they’re making a fist of it. 

Difficult decisions need to be made and that’s exactly what is happening. A new plan is being drawn up.

Absolutely that plan has to include finding stars at the key positions (QB, OL, WR, DL) and being prepared to mix things around in other areas. The OL and WR parts of that equation are being checked off. 

I presume the approch may be the opposite of Ruskell’s with other positions. For example, if they find a decent linebacker who does a good job in his rookie contract, they’ll be prepared to move on rather than spend the big bucks just because he’s had some initial success. They won’t panic and re-sign the guy a year before he hits free agency. 

Invest your resources in positions that matter and try to re-load elsewhere. Know when a player’s star is waning and be prepared to trade them before the inevitable drop off in performance. New England have schooled so many teams by trading players for high draft picks that never live up to the price tag.  The Seahawks need to take note.

And that of course means being prepared to move on from fading stars and fan favorites. Consistent contenders change a lot of the parts around their core, but the key components remain throughout. It’s impossible to have every position on offense and defense filled with a great player. Milking players on cheap rookie deals and selling high is part of the NFL business and it’s what makes great teams. Carroll and Schneider are already showing that willingness to be ruthless.

Austin Davis is hoping to lead the Golden Eagles to a Conference USA title

During my conversation with Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis, two things became evidently clear. Firstly, that he understands what it will take to get to the next level. Secondly, that he’ll do what it takes to get there.   

Davis is the most prolific quarterback in Southern Miss history. He holds several school records, including most passing touchdowns (53).

That record formerly belonged to Brett Favre.   

He enters his senior season looking to guide the Golden Eagles to a conference title game while impressing on-looking NFL scouts. He’s on the Davey O’Brien watch-list and will only improve his reputation if he can lead a developing and increasingly talented Southern Miss roster to an unbeaten season, something that’s well within their reach.   

“I’ve just had a great experience. I’ve loved going to college here, I’ve loved playing football here and there’d be nothing that would make it more sweet than to go out and win a Championship this year.”   

I wanted to speak to Davis in advance of all the serious draft talk. In many ways, this is the best opportunity we get to find out about them. Everything a player says and does during draft time is scrutinised and they’re fully aware of what’s at stake. Quarterbacks in particular get a grilling because teams want to know they can trust these guys not only to be the face of their franchise off the field but also the leader on it.   

Answers end up being rehearsed, staged and repeated. Players tred on egg shells and wax lyrical about character, leadership and such like. It’s comparable to a series of job interviews, just filmed and recorded for thousands of people to observe and judge.   

So what did I find about Davis?

You can tell he’s ambitious and wants to play at the next level but he’s equally aware it’ll be a big challenge. When he spoke about being a leader, competing and working to achieve his goals – it was done with sincerity. 

“The biggest thing is to be a winner and to be a guy that people want on their team. You can’t do anything about your height, you can’t do anything about a lot of things. You can do something about your attitude, your work ethic and your mentality towards the game. That’s one thing I want to excel at and be the best at. I want to win games and I want to lead this team.”   

I asked him about the Manning Academy which took place earlier this month. Davis attended along with a lot of the big names in college football including Andrew Luck, Landry Jones and Kirk Cousins. He left an impression, reportedly drawing rave reviews from Archie Manning. In the ‘Air it Out’ competition at the camp (which tests quarterbacks to hit moving targets) Davis progressed through two rounds to make the final, where he competed against Oklahoma’s Jones and eventual winner Collier Winters from Harvard.   

“We had a little competition where we got to throw some routes and I felt good. I guess being from Southern Miss we haven’t really done anything on the national scene yet. We haven’t won a conference championship so it’s kind of tougher to get your name out there. Just to be in that exposure gives you a chance to compete and that’s what I love to do. I thought it went well.”   

“Any time you get a chance to show people what you can do, you never know who’s going to be watching for the first time so I didn’t take it lightly, I wanted to have a good showing so hopefully I did that.”   

The training academy was a worthwhile experience for many reasons – a chance to work with Peyton and Eli of course, but also to spend some time with the other young signal callers who will make up the 2012 draft class.   

“I just really enjoyed getting to know all the guys, all the quarterbacks around the country that I know I’ll be coming out with. Guys that I’ll be competing with to play at the next level, but at the same time guys I can keep up with this season. I think that will be the neatest thing, just being able to put the TV on every Saturday whenever we’re not playing and be like ‘hey – I know that guy’. I can text him and tell him good luck or good game and just kind of create almost a fraternity of quarterbacks around the nation.”   

And on having the chance to work with two of the NFL’s best?   

“That was so special. Just kind of surreal at first but once you’d got to hanging out with them and talking ball you realise they’re guys just like we are. They really helped us out a lot, we had a chance to sit down with them for an hour session and just kind of pick their brain and ask them how they studied film. It was really a beneficial time for us as college quarterbacks.”   

There’s a lot to like about Davis from a pro-perspective. In the 2011 draft, six quarterbacks were taken in the first 36 picks – all with a certain degree of mobility. Davis is a similar athlete, capable of making plays to compliment the running game or by extending plays in the pocket. We’ve witnessed the Seahawks focus on mobility with their quarterback additions most recently and more than ever teams are looking for guys who can move around and if needed, get out of harm’s way.   

He acknowledges the importance of arm strength and says he’s worked to get stronger in anticipation of the next step. He played at around 208lbs last season, but has added weight to increase his overall strength. It should pay off when the season begins.   

“It’s probably my biggest improvement of the summer. I’m right at 220lbs now. I’m probably going to get down after fall camp, I’m probably going to lose a little weight just because we’re working so hard. I’ll try to play at 215lbs because I’m going to have to run the ball in this offense so I’m just going to try and stay a little lower than I think I would play at the next level. But as far as college goes I want to be 210-215lbs.”   

Of course it’s not just about physical qualities and the NFL demands a high degree of accuracy. It’s a contradictory storm of needing your pro-quarterback to take chances and make things happen down the field, while also viewing turnovers as the cardinal sin. Luckily, Davis is already speaking with a level of maturity about that situation.   

“Just from day one my coaches have just preached to me about protecting the football and not throwing interceptions so I’ve always tried to be a quarterback that’s always smart with the football. I guess some people call it conservative, but I call it smart football. I know if we hold onto the ball then we’re going to win a lot of games and there’s going to be a lot of big plays that guys are going to make around me.”   

It’s advice that’s worked well so far. Davis only had six interceptions last year and has 16 for his career overall – a total some quarterbacks will throw in a single season. He was still able to achieve a healthy seven yards per attempt in 2010 while recording 3103 passing yards and completing 63% of his passes. His twenty passing scores were enhanced by a further ten on the ground – and he even managed a spectacular touchdown reception on a trick play in the Beef O’Brady Bowl defeat to Louisville. When you’re scoring 31 touchdowns in a season and only throwing six interceptions, you’re doing something right as a quarterback.   

Thankfully his skills on the field are superior to those on NCAA 12. Davis admitted he was currently 0-2 with Southern Miss in career mode, of course taking control of himself at quarterback. “If I throw a pick, I’m like ‘I can’t do this anymore, I need to play with somebody else’.”   

They might happen on NCAA 12 but interceptions are not something the Golden Eagles fans have come accustomed to seeing from the real life version of Austin Davis. While he himself has touched on the possibility of people suggesting it’s a conservative approach, that’s not the impression I had when watching Southern Miss. He’s a capable passer who won’t be physically restricted at the next level. His level of focus in limiting turnovers is purely another positive and something he’ll have to take into the NFL to succeed.   

If you’re afforded the opportunity to watch Southern Miss in the upcoming new season of college football, take the opportunity to take a look at their quarterback. Next year’s draft class at the postion is already being vaunted by the media, largely due to the hype surrounding Andrew Luck (most of which is fully deserved of course).   

However, there are other guys out there and Davis in particular deserves attention. Of course, there’s still a lot of football to be played before the process begins again next year – and Davis understands the importance of taking things one step at a time. The NFL, for now at least, will have to wait.   

“I think I would be lying if I said it didn’t come into my mind. Coming into my senior year that is the next step and I’m really looking forward to that opportunity.”   

 “But at the same time, I think it’s very important that I don’t get too wrapped up in that and forget what I have here. I have another season here and everything I want to accomplish is far more important. If the NFL happens, it will happen later. What I have going on this year and with this team is really the most important thing.”   

“I’ve never been to a NFL game and last year I thought about it, but then I decided no, the first NFL game I go to I want to be playing, so that’s my goal.”