I think it’s pretty likely that Seattle will draft offensive line and defensive line with their first two selections. However, I think there are certain events that might usurp those needs. The best bet of the bunch to upset this procession is tight end. The 2013 draft boasts one of the better and deeper tight end groups in recent memory, and that means that it’s likely to be a position of great value in the first four rounds.
There is a good deal of controversy over the order in which those tight ends might be drafted too- meaning that some of the bigger names actually stand a chance of staying on the board longer than they should. Who draws the shortest straw is anyone’s guess. I’m guessing that Reed is solidly in the round two or three range, but he could be worth talking about just the same in case something unexpected happens- whether that’s him lasting until the end of round four or Seattle surprising us by calling his name at #56.
I think Seattle is pretty open about their options at tight end. We are currently without a proven joker tight end, but it’s not like you need one and given Seattle’s extremely run heavy approach and quantity of two tight end sets, it’s not a crazy notion to have all three tight ends being of the well rounded variety. Seattle might not be focused on acquiring a joker type, but if they are, Reed is one of the best in the 2013 draft at moving around formations from the tight end position.
That said, a joker-type is all he’s likely to be in the NFL. At the combine he measured just 6’2½” and 236 pounds, making him both the shortest and lightest tight end at the combine out of 19 participants.
Reed posted a mildly disappointing 4.72 forty time at the combine, but on the field his speed appeared identical to teammate receivers, making that 4.72 number seem dubious. Reed shows good ability at getting separation. On a few occasions he even displayed quick feet and change of direction ability after the catch.
His hand measurement came in at 10″, which is on the better half of the spectrum. In three games he didn’t register a drop, though he did lose one ball from a collision with the ground and also had an ugly fumble in the end zone. Reed has a good catch radius, makes tough catches, and was nothing if not a reliable target.
You pair that reliability with his ability to separate, and it’s a wonder that Reed only finished with 45 receptions for 559 yards last season. Reed was part of a team that completed a stunningly low 58 total passes to it’s entire receiver corps heading into their bowl game. Yet despite unusual ball distribution by Florida’s offense, it never felt like Reed was the focal point in any of the games I broke down. Glancing at his game log I found further evidence of this: Reed has never posted a 100 yard game nor has he ever caught more than 5 passes in a game. Only twice (in his career) has he gone over 70 yards.
You take all of these factors together and it’s easy to assume that Reed was a victim of his passing offense; that he was under-utilized. Maybe there is truth to that. But what I can say with more certainty is that Reed was never a “star” at Florida. He has the talent to be a receiver at tight end, but at Florida he was merely a talented accessory. That might scare off teams looking for a #1 tight end, but Seattle is exactly the kind of place that would welcome Reed’s combination of talent and under-utilization. Our team is loaded with talent at receiver and tight end- talent that is overlooked because the individuals within it don’t post 1000 yard seasons. Not because they aren’t capable, but because our system spreads the football for the greater good of the offense.
The question then becomes whether Seattle wants a short, light joker hybrid that won’t likely flatten defenders as a blocker. Reed’s effort isn’t always there as a blocker and he frequently hesitates like he doesn’t want to hurt himself when blocking. He can get push on a moving target and is surprisingly decent in pass protection, but at his size you would be thrilled to get mediocre NFL blocking from him.
If Seattle just wants to add more receiving options for Russell Wilson and is okay with acquiring more of a specialist than a starter, then Reed could be a very nice addition for our team. He is the most natural joker type in this draft, he runs excellent routes, separates, improvises well, and has excellent hands. Seattle could certainly do far worse, especially if the board is fighting them at offensive and defensive line.
Reading this article, I just realized that Jordan Reed and Mark Harrison (Rutgers WR) have similar measurables – Harrison is listed at 6’3 231 lbs, and has a much faster 40 time (4.46). I know that Harrison was knocked for being drop-prone, but it seems like he could do just as well as Reed while carrying a much lower draft grade. Even the college production is similar – 44 receptions for 583 yards.
I realy want Harrison. When might he still be available I think Rd 5 would even be possible. I know that there are no sure things, but in my view he would be an absolute value in the 4th or 5th.
On Reed, I like him but would not likely view him as the best value at #56, maybe in the third.
Between the two I would rather have Harison with our first 5th Rd pick than Reed in the 3rd. But getting both would just be rediculous in my opinion.
I can’t get behind the Harrison train.
Buds of mine who are long time Rutgers alums gave ruinous reviews on him. All the measurables in the world, but he simply cannot catch. He’s a heartbreak ready to happen.
If you want him running around not ever handling the ball, he’s great though.
I don’t see the drop problems on tape. in his Louisville,Arkansas, Cincinnati 2012 games he drops one pass, which was bad but, ultimately if he caught it it would have been a loss of yards as it was a pass behind him at the LOS. The only other passes that were not caught were either out of bounds or tipped by a defender. Plus you have the throw into double coverage that he caused a certain INT to be simply an incomplete pass. He fights all the way and made great catches in that tape. I would say that 1 of every 5 throws his way was a difficult catch to make, and another 1 out of 5 where pore throws/decisions by the QB.
Maybe his other tape was not as good, and I respect what you have to say. But I would like to see the poor hands that you are talking about. I am not saying he is the best player ever, but as a potential 5th round pick, I see some ability that is very attractive.
So that drop against Sout Florida is pretty bad, but there are going to be some issues with a 5th round or later pick, or else they would be drafted earlier.
Thank you for pointing out the drops, it is making me look further. Is there any more tape that is available.
Gary Nova’s not the most reliabble QB. I saw an awful lot of errant throws in that tape.
what are your thoughts on dion sims?
So I know the free agent train has pretty much left the building, but what about Fred Davis? Seemed like the last two years he flourished prior to his drug suspension and torn Achilles, respectively. Seems those events have made him looking at a short term prove it type deal. I think he would fit great in our offense, but again cost is a big question.
I’m not sure about going offensive line in the first two rounds. Why? You have a blossoming project in JR Sweezy, Carp will have his first healthy training camp, and Moffitt is sound if not spectacular.
I guess if the value for a tackle is there, sure. But otherwise it doesn’t really make sense to me.
We are actually very thin at OT, so I think it’s a good bet to see a tackle taken in rd 2-3. Who do we have behind the starters? Mike Person, Paul McQ (who sometimes is busy starting at guard), and….
Tackle is certainly more important than gaurd as far as any additions during the Draft.
Moffitt is sound if not spectacular.!? I don’t know about the spectacular part of this comment. though I do like him more than some seem to.
I have a question for anyone. I heard rumor that the end goal for Sweezy was to end up at RT.
First, has anyone else heard anything on this? Second, how likely would it be that we see him make that extra jump. I don’t know his measurables, but he seems athletic enough for anything. Does his size match that hope or is it something that got started somehow in the rumor mill.
I think that’s unlikely. You’ve already got Breno out there, and Carp can go play RT if need be.
I think RT replacement is looming…setting aside the varying perspectives on Breno (good or bad), he’s expensive at a position that many believe is not very important. I suppose anything is possible with sweezy, but he doesn’t have ideal tackle size/length. I’m not as high on him as many are. Of course, I’m also down on Breno, moffit and have zero ability to reasonably expect anything from carpenter but another IR stint. So, I’d completely understand a guard selection early if they see it as best player available. I’ve liked Warford for a long time, as one example. That said, I think there will be better players around at 56.
by looming, I mean next year, not this year. I don’t expect a change this season, but I don’t expect him to be returning after his contract ends this season.
thank you, I didn’t know what his size/length was on Sweezy.
I agree with you on Breno. They would probably like to get out of his cap hit this season, but he is the best that is on this team for the position this year. If someone is not drafted and can instantly replace him he will be on the roster this year. But no way he signs for much of anything after this year.
Even if a flat out replacement isn’t imminent (I agree that the contract makes it imminent), the fact is this FO has drafted an OL every single year. And I would expect that to continue. The team is just flush with interior guys. So taking a RT prospect in the draft would be the surest bet of any position in my opinion.
Doesn’t mean they will take one on day 2 though. I don’t get that vibe unless there is a specific guy they really like. I would think that Menelik Watson would be a guy they might see as great value. They are an organization that bases their grades on tape and his tape is excellent. The fact he might slide due to combine scores shouldn’t impact our grade on him too greatly.
Either way, it’ll be a guy they want to compete for OT. Our stable of guards is pretty full.
They definetly have great needs than guard, but that stable is full of projects and question marks and mediocrity, which is fine. But if they see the biggest area of improvement available there based on how the draft unfolds, I would not be surprised. I don’t expect it, but it would not find it surprising, either.
You can’t discount the facts that:
1. Significant draft capital has been expended there. There are 20 other positions on the team. Outside of QB, you can’t just keep Millening your drafts, dumping good capital after bad.
2. We (well some of us) presume to be mediocre. I see and hear it all the time. I tend to think it’s an antiquated byproduct of the Jones/Hutchinson experience. This isn’t a blocking scheme that relies on absurdly talented guards to be effective. Part of the appeal of the ZBS, is that you get more from less.
The fact is, we were able to run the ball far more than any other team in the NFL — and that is true even if we omit Wilson’s runs and drop backs that turned into runs. The difference in percentage of running plays between us and Houston (2nd most) was greater than the difference between Houston and the 10th most likely team to run the ball. We dwarfed our contemporaries in our willingness to run the ball. I find it difficult to believe that you can do that with mediocre play.
Further, as a team, the rushing attack in terms of efficiency (YPA) and third down conversion rates were in the top 10 for the league. I’ll take that kind of mediocrity every year.
3. Our line is full of projects. Projects that are just now beginning to mature and pay off. While I don’t disagree that the quality of the guard play couldn’t be upgraded, I concede that the quality of guard play isn’t what we can expect it to be just by letting these prospects develop. When you get projects, and they produce early — you should be encouraged by that. These projects are just now getting to the point experience wise, where they can be consistent. We’ve made the investment in these guys and replacing them is like buying a stock low and selling it before it has a chance to pay off.
For sure, if the guards we see fail to improve enough to resign them in 2014, then it’s time to start looking again. But there is zero urgency to throw away the investments of 2011 and 2012 at this stage. It is not like there won’t be suitable guard prospects in next years’ draft. We have the luxury of letting these picks play out.
I’m actually kind of bullish on the guards we already have. They are already productive and growing. And there is ample reason to hope/expect improved play going forward this season.
I do think the guard play can be improved. I don’t think we need to add talent to achieve that improvement.
I agree somewhat with not dumping good capital after bad but I would look at it a different way. I’d be going for the greatest potential replacement level. So if you had two grade 6.0 guards and you had a chance to acquire an 8.5 and that 2.5 differential is the greatest option, that’d be the choice I’d advocate. Even if I wasted a ton of draft picks and all I have to show for them is two grade 6.0 guards, I wouldn’t factor past failures into the decision.
ZBS will have to be re-evaluated with the new rule changes particularly with how the refs apply them in games. ZBS was developed as an alternative to having overpowering talent in the Oline, Seattle is cheating that original vision by putting huge, overpowering talent in a ZBS approach. ZBS may have to be altered or innovated depending on how those calls trend.
I agree with the organization that Sweezy has a bright future and high ceiling, it would be great to see him break through on pass blocking this year and claim the starting role outright. On the other side, it may be the biggest improvement in the offense if Carpenter takes care of business at LG and becomes the spearhead of an ’05 level of performance in the run game. The other pieces are in place for a truly dominant offense.
man, the intensity of the reaction one can get on this blog for the mere mention of the possibility that if guard is deemed the area of strongest improvement through a draft choice in the second or third round- even if it’s not something you expect the team to do, and concede that it’s not the highest need- is pretty damn funny.
And it’s perhaps about time we all remembered that everyone’s views are welcome here. We definitely shouldn’t rule anything out. I’ve been vocal against going o-line early in the past, but I’ve also written pieces touting Dallas Thomas and Kyle Long. Anything could happen with this front office.
I should have explained better that when I said +2.5 differential is the greatest option, I meant versus other positional options at that pick. For example, when pick #56 comes up according to the ‘Hawks draft board, the guys unpicked may leave a +6.5 at backup QB versus the guy he’d be replacing (maybe an empty chair), +2.5 at WR, +1.0 at TE, etc., etc.
This process can’t be the only factor because if they could get a +6.0 at backup QB in a later round and take someone now that won’t allow for that option, you have to consider the mix of the entire group drafted.
I did not mean to advocate any particular position other than even if they had chosen that position in the first 3 rounds of the last 3 drafts, it would still be the best choice if they trust their grades and they shouldn’t take stock in past failures versus choosing the best option.
The thing I don’t understand about the draft talk this year when it comes to tight ends is why Christian Fauria is so thoroughly dismissed. Some sites have him going undrafted which I find pretty ridiculous. As far as I can tell the knocks on him are that he is not a good blocker and his route running is not optimal. My guess is that NFL scouts have a much different valuation of Fauria than what is reflected in the draft talk/mock drafts echo chamber.
The question I would raise with regard to Jordan Reed is, if we’re going to go for a joker tight end (and not worry much about blocking), why would we choose a guy in Jordan Reed who is 6’2 and put up inferior stats over a guy like Fauria who is 6’7 and posted 12 touchdowns in the Pac 12 conference, while starting in only 9 games?
Jordan Reed (Florida) : 45 catches for 559 (3 touchdowns)
Christian Fauria (UCLA): 46 catches for 637 (12 touchdowns)
Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame): 50 catches for 685 (4 touchdowns)
Because there’s no-one in this draft named Christian Fauria. Might you mean Joeseph Fauria.
Joseph Fauria is dismissed because he’s a piss poor blocker and has barely decent speed
That still doesn’t answer the question about Joseph Fauria vs. Jordan Reed…also a poor block, also with crappy speed, especially for a guy that small…
Well you caught me there. I can’t believe I made that typo. I think it’s because when I was going to the internets to grab the exact stats, I accidentally clicked on the wikipedia page for Christian, so that put his name in my mind. I’m well aware of both players, and I can assure you that the stats listed are for Joseph.
As far as him being a piss poor blocker, as both Peter and Kip point out, so is Reed.
As far as barely having decent speed, I think they said the same thing about Jerry Rice when he came out in the draft.
The bottom line is what he did on the field in a strong conference.
Thanks for providing me with exhibit A as far as the dismissive attitude though. 🙂
apologies for the lack of context…..I actually agree with your statement “why not Joseph Fauria?” I meant to say if these are the reasons why not Joseph Fauria….then why would we consider Reed?
@Peter, I thought that’s what you meant. Thanks.
His blocking isn’t only bad, it’s some of the worst I’ve scouted. With so much more weight on him than reed, he still got flatbacked by phillip steward a 230 lb. Lb from Houston.
And I can point you to game film of Fauria making halfway decent blocks, particularly cut blocks.
I get you don’t like Fauria. But I’d take him over Reed any day. Without question Fauria is the superior receiver (hey don’t believe me – just compare their stats). Fauria is one of the very best red zone threats in the draft (can’t say that about Reed). Fauria has almost a half a foot height advantage over Reed, and his hands are about an inch larger (nearly 11″ hands), and he’s got 25lbs over Reed. I don’t think Reed can add much weight if any at all, considering he’s 6-2 236lbs. but at 6-7 260lbs, Fauria has room to grow. As for his slow 40 times, Fauria had a nasty groin injury during the East-West Shrine game that has hampered his ability to sprint, but he never had “speed” issues for UCLA. Plus, and this it the biggie here – he is not afraid to get physical in his blocking.
You can coach a guy to block better, but you can’t coach I guy to grow 6″, add an inch to his hands, and suddenly become a high ball pass catching machine.
Since Kip’s post is specifically about Reed, I’ll go ahead and say I don’t understand all the hype. Yeah, he’s a good athlete and a decent receiver. But a TE? At 6-2 236lbs?Who can’t really block and doesn’t fit the joker prototype? Why not just draft a taller, thicker WR and be done with it?
Fauria is one of the WORST BLOCKERS I’ve ever seen on-tape. He’s a liability consistently. I will agree about his hands and will admit that, before I revisited the tape this afternoon I was exceedingly underwhelmed. He’s not very sharp in his route running and is not dynamic after the catch (which is a big reason why Reed’s so valuable). He’ a big target with soft, huge hands. He certainly is a great redzone target, but not because of his ability to go up and get the ball. He’s good at being overlooked because of his size. He has deceptive speed to be cliche about it.
I guess another way to pose my fundamental question is to ask why isn’t JOSEPH Fauria included in the discussion of so-called Joker tight ends? In that discussion you’re presumably discounting blocking as a major factor.
Dude put up numbers very similar to Eifert who will go in the first round, and had exactly 3 times as many TDs.
Aaron, be happy he isn’t getting more attention. I guarantee you Fauria is on PC’s radar, especially considering the whole USC-UCLA recruiting rivalry. Let’s hope he’s available later in the draft.
Eric – agreed. I’d be very happy if he slipped as far as projected and we picked him up. Great potential value.
Btw, to back up your point about his speed, if my quick research is accurate, Reed ran a 4.68 at the combine while Fauria ran a 4.72 at his Pro Day. So we’re not talking about much of a difference there.
I think Reed’s official 40 time at the combine was exactly the same – 4.72s. The only other drill he did was BP – 16 reps. As you no doubt already know, Reed didn’t participate in Combine drills at UF’s pro day. Instead, he was supposed to have a private pro day last Friday (3/22). I have no idea if that actually took place, because I can’t find any further info or results.
At any rate, here’s the full report on Fauria’s pro day:
40 yd dash – low 4.72s, high 4.82s
Vert – 35 1/2 in
Broad – 10 ft
3 cone – 7.49s
Shuttle – 4.53s
Bench – 17 reps (from the Combine)
I’m really waiting for the results from that private workout before my final verdict on Reed, but the tape says he’s an agile dynamic big bodied play maker. Fauria is a crappy blocker with great hands and decent speed. Reed was injured during the combine as well, so take that 4.7 with a grain of salt.
agree to disagree…but I’m not sure that 6’2″ 236 makes you a “big bodied playmaker.”
I understand the injury at the combine but his stats for his Florida Career are pretty underwhelming.
I personally hope to see us draft a pass-catching TE. It doesn’t have to be the next Gronk, Graham or Gates, just someone who is a mismatch for LB’s and can keep the chains moving 7 yds at a time. I know this isn’t an original concept, but I think that type of weapon, esp paired with Miller, could give Russ a very dangerous safety valve. Just keep the chains moving until one of our big hitters takes over
Since we have harvin I’m really only interested in a right end with potential to replace Zach miller, I just don’t think 2 TE sets are going to be used much because harvin is a master of the slot and we will want him on the field as much as possible. So I think if we draft a TE blocking as well as catching will be important.
The 2 TE sets that I see the hawks using in the future for the most part is in the run game. But with this you must have a threat to pass while being able to be physical in the run. The Hawks could get a Joker, and it would be a good move, but I would like it to be late. Its so hard to guess with this team, as almost every need is minor upgrades over what we already have. What a great postion to be in.
Or in an alternate universe the Seahawks Oline shows continued and improved consistency in it’s run blocking and we can go ahead and let old Zach Miller/ Anthony McCoy be pass catching TE’s.
I have a hard time with Jordan Reed, because to me there is a complete lack of spectacular-ness to his game. Then you add in the measurables and I would rather see someone like Josh Hill out of Idaho State, bigger, stronger, faster, and could be a 7th round pick or UDFA, or Nick Edwards the WR out of Eastern Washington, lighter, jumps higher, faster, same strength (relative to the bench press) as Jordan Reed.
Congratulations on the new baby rob
One of the Joker TE’s that don’t seem to be getting enough attention is Jake Stoneburner from Ohio State. At just under 6’4″ and 255lbs. he is a little bigger than most other joker types but he also has the 4.53 speed and wide reciever body that seem to be desired at the position. Coming from a run heavy offense at Ohio State his stats aren’t great but he seems sure handed and most Buckeye fans I have heard from thought he was one of their most reliable recievers. I haven’t seen enough film on him to make a good judgement on lateral agility but I think the knock on him is tight hips.
Anyone else have any opinions on Stoneburner?
His stock is on the rise.
From SBNation:
“…the talk of [OSU Pro Day] may have been tight end Jake Stoneburner. Stoneburner improved on his already fast 40-yard dash in Indianapolis, clocking in unofficially at 4.55 and 4.52 seconds in Columbus. At 6’3, 252 pounds, Stoneburner’s frame doesn’t fit the prototypical frame of a wide receiver or a tight end at the next level particularly well. That may not matter given how well he can run, however.”
From DraftInsider:
“Jake Stoneburner/TE: Shaved .1 from his combine forty, running as fast as 4.52s on some watches. Unlike the past when the Buckeyes ran the forty on a piece of very fast track, Stoneburner ran his forty on field turf, so the time is legitimate. He was terrific in pass catching drills and caught everything thrown in his direction. Definitely a tight end on the rise.”
This is off topic but I was looking at highlights of Jason Campbell out of New Mexico Highlands. I feel like he would be a great pick up in the seventh round. What do you think?
I almost hope we don’t get a tight end so we’re more likely to make a play for ASJ next year.
Reed is such a “meh” player for me. I am really hoping an impact defensive player is there at 56, be it a DT, WLB or nickle CB.
For me, impact defensive player…or even with the Percy Harvin Deal, and Tate getting better, you’ve got to look to the future and/or upgrades at all positions, with that said…IF someone (well pretty much just him) like DeAndre Hopkins pulls a Boldin and tumbles to our pick in the 2nd you’ve got to take him….or though everyone will be sitting at or near 6’0″ I’d still be into drafting Swopes/Wheaton at that spot. Polished, physically strong players who do not entirely, in this man’s eyes, make other receivers on the roster redundant.
With McCoy coming around, at least a little bit, I personally am looking/hoping for the FO to draft almost anything else besides TE. With Wilson becoming more comfortable I look to see Miller/McCoy’s numbers both go up next year in the passing game.
drafting a year or two ahead of the demand curve for WR makes a lot of sense, given how that position seems to require an apprenticeship period. I have a hard time seeing Sidney Rice on this team after this coming season.
I am really excited about the late round talent at Receiver, whether it be Tight End or Wide receiver. The fifth round is filled with big WR. Aaron Mellette should be available, Marcus Davis, Mark Harrison, Marquess Wilson, and at least 5 others that I cannot think of off the top of my head, should all be good to pick up in the fifth and all could be huge within three years with good coaching. This is probably one of the better Late round wide out markets over the past 20 years. throw one or 2 in and let them battle with Stephen Williams, Jermaine Kearse, and Doug Baldwin and we will have a good core of some highly potent, young receivers. Add in about 8 above average Tightends that are there later in the draft and i would not be surprised if we try to trade down in the second or give up our second in general for a 1 next year an a couple late round picks. Very excited for this deep draft.
Chris Gragg is a high upside player with a low risk as an option in the fourth fifth range. He’s quick really strong and nasty. Cable might end up calling for this player because of how mean he plays
I love Reed, but there are a handful of TEs in this class that could be great fits as pass-catchers in our offense. Gavin Escobar, Fauria, etc. I have to say that outside of Eifert and maybe Ertz, Reed is the one I get the most excited about. Another move-able chess piece for an offense really on the rise. I think we must add a quality 2nd TE who can catch in this draft. McCoy is not that guy.