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Could Jaylen Waddle be a trade target to help the Seahawks charge up their passing game?

A lot of people thought the Seahawks were light at receiver coming into the season. I didn’t think it was such an issue, yet the evidence in week one is that it might be.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was effectively the passing game against San Francisco in week one. None of the other receivers, for whatever reason, had much impact. The tight ends were also an afterthought as pass-catchers.

There’s still plenty of time to settle into things and in a few weeks it might be that the opening game struggles ended up being an unfortunate one-off. It’s also possible, though, that the concerns voiced about a lack of skill-position talent on the roster prove accurate.

During my Monday stream with Jeff Simmons we discussed options and the name Jaylen Waddle came up. The Miami Dolphins already look like they’re on the precipice of a major rebuild — including the roster, coaching staff and front office. They might already be eyeing up the future. Acquiring extra stock, moving players on and preparing for a new era might come into play if they don’t show a major improvement over the next couple of weeks.

Waddle turns 27 in November so he’s still at a decent age. He’s had some injuries and that’s a concern. Yet he has also produced +1000 yard seasons in three of his four years with the Dolphins. He’s talented, quick (4.37 runner) and carries none of the baggage of his Miami team-mate Tyreek Hill.

The offense would feel more threatening with Waddle paired next to Smith-Njigba, with Cooper Kupp as your #3. Tory Horton could work his way into the game-plan as the year goes on with Jake Bobo a decent enough fifth wheel.

This might balance things out a bit more if they can’t find solutions with their existing personnel over the next couple of games or so. Waddle would also provide the kind of deep threat many believe Klint Kubiak needs in his system (as shown through Rashid Shaheed last season in New Orleans). They clearly feel they need someone who can challenge downfield, which is why they brought in Marquez Valdez-Scantling.

What about the possible trade compensation for Waddle?

I reached out to fellow Brit Si Clancy — a big Dolphins fan plus a NFL and draft pundit — to ask for his thoughts. He felt a third round pick and a day three pick would get it done.

Cap-wise you’d be paying next to nothing for Waddle this year and next (his base salary is just over a million dollars through 2026) before his 2024 contract extension explodes into life. You could work on that from 2027 if you needed to, so financially it’s manageable.

The added bonus is you wouldn’t be acquiring him and then having to pay him — something the Seahawks have preferred not to do when trading for players.

Likewise if the injuries started building with him, you’d have no financial obligation and could move on at any time.

I think it’d be a reasonable consideration for a player who is clearly talented and has been stuck, somewhat, in a messy situation with the Dolphins who are imploding. Ownership needs to take responsibility in Miami and fix the problem — and that might mean moving assets. There’s little point clinging on to expensive receivers if you’re facing a full-scale rebuild. Are they ready to embrace that? Or will it be weeks before they resign themselves to what feels like an inevitable conclusion?

When the Seahawks needed more at linebacker last year, they aggressively pursued a solution. Ditto the year prior when they felt they needed an interior pass rusher. Would they emulate the Ernest Jones and Leonard Williams trades and do it again for a receiver this year?

If they do, Waddle would be a reasonable target. It could be a big boost for an offense appears light on weapons.

If you missed today’s stream with Jeff Simmons, check it out here:

Instant reaction: Seahawks disappoint in home opener against the 49ers

First thing’s first, I thought San Francisco deserved to win. They moved the ball on offense far better than the Seahawks and defensively, with a bit of assistance from a confusing Seattle game-plan, the home offense never got going.

But for two interceptions from Brock Purdy and some awful special teams, they could’ve coasted to a win. In fact, they probably should’ve done. I thought watching this game there was a separation between the two teams that hopefully was merely an ugly one-off.

Klint Kubiak’s offense was painful to watch. Why was it so tricky? Why is the third string quarterback running a draw on your opening drive? Why try funky attempted wide screens thrown into traffic to establish momentum? Why did they go away from outside zone as soon as the 49ers had a little joy against it?

There were too many runs from the shotgun, too many attempts to catch the 49ers out and not enough bread and butter for what we know this scheme to be.

They insisted on running with a two-headed monster in the backfield despite Zach Charbonnet clearly being the hot-hand. Ken Walker looks like a player totally devoid of confidence. Any time he was on the field, you could feel the crowd slumping in their seats. Why did they not run behind Charbonnet in the second half when he was effectively going for near enough five-yards-per-carry?

Is the passing game completely reliant on Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Why were the tight ends not utilised? Was it really as hard as it looked to get the other receivers involved? If they’re one dimensional in their passing game it’ll be a problem.

Some have voiced concern about Seattle’s ability to drive the ball downfield. In this game the deep-ball felt like a total afterthought. They never tried to stretch the 49ers or really attack the secondary. That’s concerning.

The offense was bailed out time and time again by a defense playing its heart out and that has to be the positive takeaway. They gave everything to keep it tight. It was an achievement they had opportunities to win — and that was thanks to defense and special teams.

Yet even at the end they succumbed thanks to two horrible plays by Riq Woolen, who again showed the rollercoaster journey that he provides in coverage (that will also, as it happens, prevent him from getting a big contract from anyone in the future). He simply has to be stronger on the game-winning score. Make a play there, even if it’s not an interception. He was so poor in coverage on the initial deep-ball my first reaction from my view at the other end of the stadium was to question whether it was a linebacker mismatch exploited by the 49ers.

Regardless, I think we can see from this game that the defense will make Seattle competitive. The offense, however, is a major worry. They have to improve immediately, because they go to Pittsburgh next and can ill-afford to drop into an 0-2 hole to start the season. Even if they’d delivered a late score to steal a win, this would need to be viewed as a tough debut for Kubiak, Sam Darnold and co.

You won’t win many games in the NFL when you have 10 fewer first downs, 230 total yards only and a near 16-minute difference in time of possession.

The big concern for me is — are they being tricky because they feel they have to? Are they not good enough on offense at the skill positions to just run their plays and hurt teams? I didn’t think so coming into the season but maybe I was wrong?

It’s a question we’ll know the answer to pretty quickly.

A final note — the Seahawks are now 16-19 at home since fans returned to Lumen Field in 2021. They are 1-7 in their last eight home games. This is a problem that isn’t going away.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week One vs San Francisco)

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Year Two of the Mike Macdonald era in Seattle is finally upon us.

After another offseason of transformative moves on the roster, the Seahawks feel fresher and further removed from a franchise that talked about running the ball and playing tough defense but could not consistently do either.

Gone are high-profile players who did not want to play under this new vision.  In their place are talented and dedicated players who not only fit the system better, they are far better presences in the locker room.

The result is a team prepared to turn the tables on their Week One opponent, the San Francisco 49ers.  For years, the Seahawks have struggled to compete in the trenches with this team and their play-calling has displayed a real apathy about how to properly gameplan for such a talented and well-coached opponent.

No more.  Now the Seahawks have the advantage in talent and experience in the trenches.  They now need to match that talent to a proper gameplan.   How can they do that?

Control the Game with the Offense

The Seahawks are ideally placed to usurp this strategy from San Francisco.  They have the makings of a solid Offensive Line, a Quarterback who understands his assignment, Tight Ends who can supplement the run game, and have invested heavily in Fullbacks and Running Backs to make it all work.  This is all tied together by a new offensive staff that is experienced in taking advantage of the assets they have been provided.

What does San Francisco have on defense?  True, they have stars like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.  But they also have this:

That kind of inexperience and poor past performance is a weakness that must be exploited.

True, they have invested quite a bit in their Defensive Line in the draft this year.  But expecting cohesion and assignment readiness from the line in Week One is a bridge too far.  Consider Bo Nix’s performance in Seattle in Week One versus later in the season for an example.

Focusing on this strategy is much more than just playing a strength against a weakness.  Let us count the ways this benefits the Seahawks:

1 – It wears out the Niner defense and keeps the Seahawk defense fresh.  It opens up opportunities in the passing game and Wide Receivers Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba know exactly how to exploit room they have been given.

2 – It keeps the Niners more in their base personnel packages.  Bryce Huff is one of the NFL’s better pass rushers.  On passing downs he will perform well across from Nick Bosa.  However, he is a major liability in the running game, logging 48 grades from PFF in Run Defense the last two seasons.  Want to keep him from wrecking the game?  Keep him on the sidelines by committing to the run.

3 – It is a key to success against this team.  Last year, the Niners conceded twenty explosive runs.  All but one of those were in Niner losses.  The one in the win?  It was of zero consequence, as it was late in the fourth quarter and the Niners were up by nineteen points.  A signature trademark of success against San Francisco has been the ability to get an explosive run.

Data point:  Ten of the 19 explosive runs the Niners conceded were to the right side of the offense.  If they can time a play call to let Nick Bosa rush up field and take himself out of the lane, there are big opportunities there for Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

4 – It does not allow San Francisco to play their game on offense.  It puts pressure on Brock Purdy to take the game over, something he is not needed to do very often.  As Purdy goes, so go the Niners.

Speaking of that…

Defend the Edges in the Run and Put the Game on Brock Purdy’s Shoulders

The Niners love to get defenses thinking about misdirection when they run the ball.  They probably run as much to the edges of the defense as any offense in the NFL.

Look at Christian McCaffrey’s run chart against the Seahawks in Week Ten of last year:

No explosive runs conceded (the defense only conceded seven last year) and running up the middle was more of an afterthought than a strategy.  The Seahawks kept McCaffrey contained by setting the edges and not letting themselves get taken out of the play by motion and misdirection.

While they did well in that game, improvement is needed.  Watch Derick Hall allow himself to lose contain on a play where Mike Macdonald is sending blitzers from the other side, so he knows the action is coming his way.

Tank Lawrence was brought in primarily for this exact purpose:  set the edge on defense.  Keep your side of the field locked and make runners choose between moving inside where tacklers are waiting or try running up the sideline against speedy players like Devon Witherspoon are.

If the defense can keep the running game from making much progress, and the offense is running the ball effectively, that takes the Niners out of their offensive comfort zone.  While Brock Purdy is without a doubt a good quarterback, making him responsible for winning the game gives the Seahawks a decided advantage.

In 49ers wins last year, Purdy had a sparkling 9:1 Touchdown to Interception Ratio, a 114.9 passer rating and was only sacked nine times.

Losses were a whole different picture:  11:11, 84.7 and 22 sacks.

I want to cull a point I wrote last year on ways to disrupt Purdy’s process.  I took it from Mike Macdonald’s masterpiece as the Ravens Defensive Coordinator against the Niners:

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 26, 2023

Macdonald has Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Kyle Van Noy crowding the line of scrimmage with three down linemen pre-snap, looking like a big blitz package.  But none of them go at the snap.  They all retreat to coverage and instead Kyle Hamilton (perfectly synching to the snap) comes roaring in off a nickel coverage spot.

Hamilton gets illegally chop-blocked by McCaffrey and then Aaron Banks decides to flop his 324 lbs on him to make sure he is down.

Meanwhile, Nmandi Madubuike and Odafe Oweh beat their men (really, outlast them with a relentless motor) and chase Purdy, who has taken too much time to process who is doing what on defense.

Purdy is forced into a contested throw that Marlon Humphrey bats away and right into the arms of…Kyle Hamilton, who has gotten up and doggedly gotten back into the play.

It is smarts.  Desire.  Toughness.

That is what it will take to defeat the Niners

It is not hard to envision Tyrice Knight, Ernest Jones and Devon Witherspoon in the box and Nick Emmanwori being the blitzer in a similar play concept.

Mike Macdonald has stated several times that he feels he needs to blitz more with his talented defense. 

It will be a delight to see what kind of blitzes and formations he cooks up for Brock Purdy.  When he gets pressured and hurried, his mechanics tend to get messy and he can tend to try to play hero-ball.

When he is more decisive and takes off to run, he is effective.  It might be advantageous to put a talented shadow like Emmanwori on him.  One who can mirror him and occasionally blitz to keep him guessing.

If the offense and defense can coalesce as effectively as we hope they can, this game could be well in the Seahawks’ control.

College football scouting notes for week two

I’ve spent the day taking the opportunity to watch college football at a non-ungodly hour for once and wanted to share a few notes. Before getting into it I want to mark your card for tomorrow. Curtis Allen’s first watch-notes piece of the season will be published at 7am PT.

— The Iowa vs Iowa State game was fascinating for the trench play. The three players I focused on were Gennings Dunker (RT, Iowa), Logan Jones (C, Iowa) and Domonique Orange (DT, Iowa State). I have all three graded as possible top-64 picks next year.

Orange had the biggest impact early on — getting off blocks, making disruptive plays in the backfield and flashing his pro-potential for a player with a fantastic combination of quickness and upper body power. He looks the part of a NFL defensive lineman and stood out in the early drives where Iowa struggled to get anything going.

Later on Dunker had an outstanding rep against Orange though. He had to get on the run and shoot inside, then engage Orange from an awkward angle. He arrived from a side-on position to the defender but squares up easily, engages contact and drives Orange off the ball and into the end zone, helping Iowa score a rushing touchdown.

I’m not sure if Dunker will stay at tackle at the next level but if he has to kick inside, I think he has massive potential at right guard. Not only that, his movement skills and ability to execute on the run further highlight his zone-blocking chops. He’s one to watch.

Overall it wasn’t the best of Logan Jones. He got very little push in the run game and wasn’t able to displace interior defenders. Pass-pro wise he was decent and managed to hold his ground. I think both Iowa blockers should remain on our radar throughout the year.

— Nobody is going to look at Garrett Nussmeier’s stat line today, or LSU’s result against Louisiana Tech, and spend much time hyping him up. He had an early interception on an underthrown pass. It went 45 yards downfield to the left sideline when it needed to go 55. On the plus side, it wasn’t the kind of calamitous error that dogged Nussmeier at times last year. It perhaps just highlights some arm limitations but I don’t think anyone ever thought he had a Josh Allen style cannon.

What he did show once again, however, were next-level quarterbacking skills that no other QB is close to matching a the moment. His pocket footwork, mobility, ability to throw on the run and natural throwing talent (he makes it look easy, has a good spiral and release) were there too see. He is by far the quarterback with the most obvious pro-potential.

Look at the touchdown he threw as a case in point. He’s going through his progressions, doesn’t panic in the pocket and moves his feet to avoid the pressure and create the throwing lane. The pass is inch perfect:

 
I think he has the potential to be really good. In particular I don’t think people realise how good he is at escaping pressure and throwing on the move. He is easily QB1 for me.

— The other quarterbacks are getting more hype but I don’t know why. It was another ho-hum day from Cade Klubnik as Clemson struggled past Troy. LaNorris Sellers is a long way from NFL ready and doesn’t justify the hype he gets. Today, in the first half against lowly South Carolina State, he was 6/13 passing for 63 yards.

There’s been a fair amount of frothing at the mouth about John Mateer. He’s fun to watch — creative, unpredictable at times and makes the games he plays in very entertaining. It was that way at Washington State too. He’s a very creative and athletic player.

However, there are issues. He throws way too many side-arm passes. A lot of his throws are at max-velocity even on shorter routes where it’s unnecessary. He doesn’t throw with touch on enough of his passes. Mateer had overthrows and misses in this game.

You take the rough with the smooth. He can help Oklahoma have a much better season this year. He can be a box office college football player all year. But that doesn’t mean he’s a projectable high pick for the NFL draft. At the moment, only Nussmeier warrants clear round one talk.

I think Drew Allar is in the mix for QB2 but as I said before the season began, the other name I would keep an eye on is Sawyer Robertson who had another very productive performance to lead Baylor from way back against SMU to cause an upset. He has the tools. There’s something to work with there. I will watch his tape from today’s game when it becomes available.

— I haven’t watched Allar or Penn State this week but there’s a player to keep an eye on besides the quarterback and the two running backs for the Nittany Lions. Dani Dennis-Sutton is a legit defender. I noticed he had two more TFL’s today. This is a name to remember and he could be a high pick next year.

Abe Lucas agrees contract extension with the Seahawks

As I landed in Seattle, like most people do on a flight I immediately turned my phone back on to see what I’d missed over the last 10 hours. The first thing I saw was a tweet noting a contract extension for Abe Lucas. All was well with the world.

Let’s start by talking about Lucas the player. Regulars will know how highly we rated him before the 2022 draft. An outstanding Senior Bowl cemented a late first round grade on my board. I was never quite sure why he wasn’t rated higher. Was it just an injury thing? Regardless, it was well worth the Seahawks taking a shot in round three. Frankly, if they’d have taken him at #40 or #41 I would’ve celebrated the pick.

He showed as a rookie how much potential he had with an excellent first year. Then the injury happened and cast doubt as to what the future held. His return to the field last season was positive and he hasn’t had any setbacks.

Lucas’ showing against Kansas City in pre-season was outstanding, hinting at the prospect of a breakout season, placing him among the very best right tackles in the NFL.

Had the Seahawks waited and Lucas delivered on that, two things could’ve happened. Firstly, it would’ve cost a heck of a lot more money to keep the player. Two, there was the prospect of losing him — which would be a disaster if, as everyone hopes, the offensive line takes a major leap forward this season.

Getting a deal done for this kind of money, just over $15m a year on a three-year extension, is a good balance between providing Lucas with a financial reward, hedging your bets, potentially getting value and allowing the player to reach the market again in his prime.

If the worst happens and Lucas misses time with injury again, this is not a debilitating contract in the slightest. It makes perfect sense to invest in a player like this at a position where finding quality is so difficult.

It’s a great piece of news ahead of the new season.

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