Anyone getting a sense of déjà vu?

A year ago this is how the off-season played out, relating to Geno Smith:

— The Seahawks didn’t cut him before a $12.7m guarantee tolled, this was seen to be confirmation he would be back with the team

— Adam Schefter then put out a tweet noting that his 2024 cap-hit provided value to the Seahawks, or any other team that wanted to reach out to see if he was available via trade

— John Schneider, during a series of media interviews, was non-committal about Smith when asked — preferring instead to quickly turn the subject to Drew Lock. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb did the same thing, with Grubb noting he’d provided parenting advice to ‘new dad’ Lock

— The combine came and went, no trade materialised, and Schneider’s tone suddenly changed as he began to describe Smith as ‘their guy’ once Lock had signed for the Giants. When they acquired Sam Howell shortly after Lock’s decision, Schneider made it clear he was only coming in to be Smith’s backup

I get the sense the game is afoot once again.

Firstly, Macdonald hardly gave a reassuring answer on Smith when asked by Mike Salk whether he would return in 2025:

Here is the video of Mike Macdonald’s response to question about whether he expects Geno Smith to be back next year. (Via @SeattleSports) https://t.co/QgOgaTHWUB pic.twitter.com/PHFc54jKXz

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) January 6, 2025

Let’s be honest here, how do you think this question would’ve been answered when talking about any of the clear franchise quarterbacks in the league with other teams? It’s very easy to say, ‘absolutely, yes’ if there’s no doubt.

In his press conference the next day, Macdonald gave a more thoughtful and detailed answer that was widely reported as a significant positive in terms of Smith’s likelihood of returning. I wasn’t so sure:

“I feel like Geno is what’s best for the team right now.”

Mike Macdonald on Geno Smith. pic.twitter.com/IqiO0hwqBG

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) January 7, 2025

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Macdonald wants Geno back. There’s never been any deviation in his praise of the quarterback during the last few months. A young, still inexperienced Head Coach probably prefers an experienced signal caller. I can’t imagine he wants to dive into developing a younger, less experienced quarterback, on top of managing the team. Whether that’s a rookie or a reclamation project.

However, this quote is significant:

“I feel like Geno’s best for the team right now. I’ll be involved with it. Ultimately it’s not my decision. It’s a Seahawks decision”

This is the key point. Any continuation of the relationship has to be right for the team. And that’s where the problem might be.

I don’t think John Schneider wants to absorb Smith’s $44.5m cap-hit next season and would prefer to reduce that, without any multi-year commitment to a player who turns 35 later this year. I suspect he’d like to retain annual outs in a compromise contract. I also think he was very prepared to move on a year ago if a good trade offer was forthcoming at the combine and he’ll be willing to move on again if needs be.

Therefore, it comes down to Smith and his representatives. How willing are they to compromise? Their initial play will be to ask for the kind of money paid to the likes of Kirk Cousins (four-years, $100m guaranteed). The Seahawks will balk at that, especially in light of the huge waste of money Cousins has proven to be. A bad contract from a year ago will not act as a precedent.

The Seahawks may grant Smith’s people the opportunity to see what’s out there at the combine. It’s the only way they can establish a market. If other teams are not prepared to give Smith a chunky extension with guarantees over 2-3 years, it increases the likelihood of a compromise with the Seahawks. A lukewarm market two years ago, established at the combine, almost certainly led to the compromise deal Smith signed in 2023.

Smith’s representatives could be aggressive and challenge the Seahawks to cut their client if they’re not willing to play on the $44.5m cap-hit or give him a multi-year commitment. I’m not sure that’d achieve much — the team would probably call their bluff, rather than cave. Based on what connected people are saying (more on that shortly) I get the impression Smith’s representatives are making it clear they want a commitment from the team financially and in term. That will increase the likelihood of a parting if they retain that stance.

There will likely be some brinkmanship on both sides and it’ll come down to whether common ground can be found. I don’t think the Seahawks are desperate to move on and would probably rather retain him as a cost-effective bridge, rather than waltz into the unknown. But they’re almost certainly not going to pay him a big contract and that’s probably what he wants. However, if the rest of the league won’t pay him a big contract, why should the Seahawks? They’ll argue they’re only bidding against themselves. So can the player and team establish a fair compromise that suits all concerned? At the moment I’m not sure either party can answer that.

With so many teams needing a quarterback and with a weak QB class in the draft, there could be more trade interest. Pete Carroll is interviewing for the Raiders job on Monday. If he gets it, it’s easy to imagine him pushing for a reunion with Smith.

Pay attention to certain connected journalists. Brady Henderson is one of them. Listen to what he had to say on 710 Seattle Sports on Thursday. Then in the second video you’ll hear Bryan Walters, aka former fair-catch specialist and now a pundit for the Seahawks pre and post-game shows, discussing the same topic on 710 Seattle Sports:

If you’re wondering about the reference to Jordan Babineaux in the clip with Walters, he recently predicted that Geno Smith would not be back with the Seahawks next year. It’s interesting to hear talk of completely re-working the offense, after a few years of things not clicking.

I think it’s pretty easy to work out what the situation is:

1. There will not be a big extension for Geno Smith

2. They will not keep him on a $44.5m cap-hit

3. He will return next year if a compromise agreement can be reached, likely providing a financial benefit to Smith while lowering his cap-hit and giving the Seahawks an annual ‘out’

I think anything could happen. Trade, cut, compromise agreement. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the way certain people are talking about this subject.

I’ll finish with this. Whoever the Seahawks appoint as offensive coordinator will be a major tell. If it’s Hank Fraley, it’s very hard to imagine the team saying to him, ‘OK Hank, your first task is to establish a new starting quarterback’ and it be some kind of reclamation project or rookie. If they appoint someone like Josh McCown, who has just done an excellent job helping to reinvent Sam Darnold, that’s a different scenario completely and they might be more open-minded about change at the position.

I wanted to publish an updated horizontal board this week with thoughts on each position group. The Senior Bowl in Mobile will heavily impact the board — with grading adjustments and new players to study.

Here’s the latest update (click the image to enlarge):

Players in red have a known injury

The following draft eligible players have stated their intention to stay in college for next season:

Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU)
Logan Jones (C, Iowa)
Parker Brailsford (C, Alabama)
Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
Josh Kreutz (C, Illinois)
Harold Perkins (LB, LSU)
Haynes King (QB, Georgia Tech)
Cade Klubnik (QB, Clemson)
Dontay Corleone (DT, Cincinnati)
Evan Stewart (WR, Oregon)
Nicholas Singleton (RB, Penn State)
Kaytron Allen (RB, Penn State)

The following players are transferring:

Mark Gronowski (QB, Iowa)
Jalen Catalon (S, Missouri)
Carson Beck (QB, Miami)
Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)
Tyler Van Dyke (QB, SMU)
Billy Edwards Jr (QB, Wisconsin)
Jacob Zeno (QB, Texas A&M)
Miller Moss (QB, Louisville)
Patrick Payton (EDGE, LSU)

Position-by-position thoughts

Quarterbacks

The worst thing a bad team can do is reach for a QB when they don’t have an adequate supporting cast. I think there’s a reasonable chance one or two quarterbacks go in the top-10 — but I do think some teams will think they’re better off drafting Abdul Carter, Mason Graham or Travis Hunter instead, then taking a chance on a quarterback like Jaxson Dart later on.

The teams I can see reaching on a quarterback are the likes of the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. However, I don’t think it’s out of the question these teams will draft for a different position in the top-10, then circle back on day two and pick a quarterback in a range they are more comfortable with. Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah, both citing league sources, this week suggested there’s a level of despair among teams in the top-10 about the quarterback class. McShay even suggested this could be another 2022, where teams resist reaching. I’d argue any quarterback taken in the first round would be a reach based on grading.

Drew Allar’s performance against Notre Dame will put him in a difficult spot. Is that how you want to end your college career? With a major damp-squib game? That said, it didn’t hurt Michael Penix Jr when his final tape was the Michigan blow-out a year ago. Allar will also likely lose his top target (Tyler Warren), best running back (Nicholas Singleton) and Penn State’s best pass rusher (Abdul Carter). If he goes back to college, will he have a supporting cast to make it worthwhile?

It’s very hard based on his fluctuating tape to give Allar a first round grade. He is more about potential than someone you feel confident about. The talk before the Notre Dame game was he would likely turn pro, despite originally saying he’d return to college. We’ll see if his final game changes things. I haven’t included him on the board.

I’ve dropped Quinn Ewers a round since the original horizontal board because his play simply hasn’t recovered since he returned from injury. I went back and watched three of his games pre-injury at the start of the season and the difference is stark. He is unrecognisable to the player we’ve seen since his return. His throws had far more zip, he was more mobile and he was more confident and decisive. I think it’s pretty clear he’s been playing hurt, perhaps significantly, and this has impacted his play.

However, that’s the problem. We came into the season saying he needed to stay healthy and be more consistent. Neither has happened. There’s clearly natural talent in his arm but his size, injury record and inability to snap out of a funk is concerning. Someone will take a chance on bringing his talent out and eventually he’ll be worth a shot if he turns pro. Yet there are big question marks about his ability to start in the NFL and play to the lofty expectations that were set for him during High School recruiting. That said — there’s a reason those expectations existed. He wasn’t just a big-time recruit, he graded above Caleb Williams. Some scouting services gave him perfect grades, typically saved for freakish athletes like Jadeveon Clowney. Teams will always believe they can get the best out of players with natural talent.

I do think we’ll see quarterbacks drafted in rounds 2-4 this year. From a Seahawks perspective, I’m not sure this will be the year they end their drought of picking QB’s. They might prefer to try and trade for a younger player elsewhere, as they did with Sam Howell a year ago. Seth Henigan and Tyler Shough both have the kind of arm to warrant some intrigue. One of the two QB’s Schneider has taken, Alex McGough, was a Lane Kiffin product. Would they show interest in Dart? It’s worth noting that although Dart declared, he’s reportedly attempting to get another year of college eligibility to return to Ole Miss. How will teams balance out Dillon Gabriel’s lack of physical tools versus his mobility, creativity and massive college production? Max Brosmer really intrigues me but not necessarily for a team wanting to attack downfield. Then there’s Jalen Milroe — a great athlete, a brilliant runner but someone who hasn’t shown any ability to be able to throw consistently from the pocket.

Running backs

It’s clearly a loaded class. Nicholas Singleton showed against Notre Dame why I’ve had him graded in round two. He has special physical qualities, combining explosive power with speed, agility and a classic frame.

I’ve reassessed my thoughts on North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. I found his tape a bit boring — because UNC were boring this season. I didn’t see a lot of difficult games that they played in to provide the kind of test where Hampton could have a key game. I think I overly penalised him for that. The truth is, he has a perfect NFL running back body with the physical tools to match. I really value yards after contact and he ranked second only to Ashton Jeanty in that category. I think, on reflection, his best football will come at the next level as a lead back.

I think Kyle Monangai could provide real value to someone. I doubt he has the big-time testing numbers but his running style is as close to Marshawn Lynch’s as I can recall in recent years.

Even with Seattle’s generous depth at the position, I think they’d be wise to add a running back at some stage — even if it’s a later round pick. There’s depth and quality throughout this class and we might see multiple future starters taken in rounds 3-5 this year.

Wide receivers

There’s not the same depth at the top-end as we’ve seen in previous seasons but Texas’ Matthew Golden is someone I think could get into the first round mix if he opts to turn pro. He’s had a very consistent season, is regularly providing reliability and dynamism to the Longhorns and could easily be a day-one target for teams needing a receiver.

The Seahawks will likely part ways with Tyler Lockett in the off-season to save money but there are going to be potential replacements available in the rounds 3-5 range. I’m a big fan of UNLV’s Ricky White III and Texas Tech’s former Washington State wide-out Josh Kelly. Ja’Corey Brooks had a really good season for Louisville, while Elic Ayomanor and Tai Felton both combine savviness with consistency. If Xavier Restrepo lasts into the third round range, he’ll provide tremendous value for someone.

I’d also say — if the Seahawks re-sign D.K. Metcalf (I think they will, personally, but don’t shoot the messenger) and having already spent a top-20 pick on Jaxson Smith-Njigba, they shouldn’t be investing much more stock into this position. You don’t need three expensive, highly drafted receivers. Especially if you want to be more like Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers in identity.

Tight ends

It’s a good class, highlighted at the top end by Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, both of whom I think will go in the top-15. There aren’t 10 better players in this class than these two. Harold Fanin Jr is a good combine away from getting into the mix with them and I wouldn’t rule out Mason Taylor also forcing his way into the top group.

There’s been an increasing discourse online and on the radio about the possibility of the Seahawks drafting a tight end in round one. Talent-wise, it’s worth considering — especially if either of the top-two get into range. However, I can’t help but question whether we’ve been here before? The Seahawks need to reinforce their trenches, badly. Drafting a tight end in the top-20 will simply create another mouth to feed in the passing game. There’ll be continual discourse about whether they’re involved enough. Unless they’re prepared to trade Metcalf and create an opening for a secondary high-target weapon, I’m not sure this is a wise move. Especially in a class where you can find value with the likes of Elijah Arroyo, Luke Lachey, Gunnar Helm and Mitchell Evans in the middle rounds.

Brock Bowers is a rare gem. The other NFL leading tight ends in terms of yards — Trey McBride (pick #55), George Kittle (#146), Jonnu Smith (#100), Travis Kelce (#63), Sam LaPorta (#34), Tucker Kraft (#78), Mark Andrews (#86) and Pat Freiermuth (#55) were all selected outside of the first round. I can’t help but think the Seahawks are best to focus on the lines first and foremost and tap into the depth at tight end beyond their first selection. Arroyo and Lachey in particular could provide genuine value.

Offensive tackles

It’s a weak class and nothing has improved since the previous horizontal board. Josh Simmons, despite his injury, may well still be a top-15 pick simply because he’s the best pure left tackle available. Will Campbell almost certainly has to kick inside with his lack of length, while Kelvin Banks feels more like an Alijah Vera-Tucker type player than an out-and-out blindside blocker.

Texas’ right tackle Cameron Williams is regularly mocked to the Seahawks but this would be a selection that might bring me to tears. He hasn’t played many college football games and it shows — his technique is all over the place. He’s big and looks the part but Williams would be a ground-zero project. Plus, presumably you’d be kicking him inside rather than replacing Abe Lucas? He’s also been injured recently, limiting his playing experience even further. I don’t think he should declare. With more experience and further work on his technique — he could be a high pick in 2026.

Interior O-liners

Thankfully there’s a really decent crop of players available, giving the Seahawks a tremendous opportunity to add an impact lineman in the first two rounds.

It really comes down to what they’re looking for. My preference would be to take a page out of the LA Rams’ book. As documented here, they switched up their blocking scheme and went with size and power — remaking their entire line. They finished with the 12th ranked run-block win-rate. Seattle ranked 28th.

Give me big, physical finishers up front. A dream scenario would be to splash out on Kansas City’s free agent Trey Smith — ranked sixth among interior linemen in run-block win-rate — a 6-6, 321lbs tone-setter who only ran a 4.82 shuttle at his combine. Give me alpha types up front please, with size.

Tyler Booker is similar to Smith — they were both 5-star recruits, they’re both huge with plus run-blocking attributes. Pairing them together would be a statement of intent. I just don’t think Smith makes it to the open market.

The Lions also value size and aggression. Graham Glasgow (6-6, 315lbs), Frank Ragnow (6-5, 311lbs) and Kevin Zeitler (6-4, 332lbs) are not small linemen.

If they appoint someone like Klint Kubiak to run a scheme similar to Kyle Shanahan, they might want more athletic, mobile blockers. So the next offensive line appointment will dictate who we should look at.

Kelvin Banks could be a star guard. Josh Conerly is a ‘wow’ player to watch on tape but lacks the size to stick at tackle. He reminds me a little of Matthew Bergeron. Donovan Jackson is big, highly athletic and really talented. I’m a huge Grey Zabel fan. Jonah Savaiinaea has great feet for his size but I just want to see more of an edge as a finisher — he’s a hold-position type. I think he can be a very good guard but you want to see some nastiness.

There are a bunch of players who are tackles who might have to kick inside — Jack Nelson, Will Campbell, Aireontae Ersery, Armand Membou, Wyatt Milum, Emery Jones and Marcus Mbow for example. Campbell, Ersery, Membou and Mbow are all tremendous athletes and could really push themselves up boards through testing. Milum is aggressive and tough but his feet are sluggish and he over-extends and bends at the waist. I’ve pushed Membou and Mbow up — Membou in particular intrigues me.

The center group has been decimated with players opting not to turn pro. Jake Majors is an excellent talent and someone I hope the Seahawks will seriously consider on day two. Jared Wilson has tremendous upside. I think everyone is ready to see a commitment to this position — either in the form of bringing in an established free agent (Ryan Kelly), a veteran at a good age (Josh Myers) or a draft pick with the talent, like Majors, to be the answer for a long time.

There are day-one starters to be had here. I’d love to see the Seahawks hit on two linemen in this class. That first pick chimes well with the interior linemen available. Even if they trade down first, O-line has to be the leader in the clubhouse position for their top pick.

Defensive ends

I’m talking about bigger edge defenders here — and there are some very appealing options. The more I watch of Oregon’s Jordan Burch the more I like. He has everything athletically on a 6-6, 290lbs frame to be a special player. I think there’s more upside here than Mykel Williams has shown at Georgia and he’s proven to be a better finisher than Shemar Stewart — a classic ‘nearly made the play’ type.

These are three names to keep an eye on for Seattle’s first or second pick. It’s likely Dre’Mont Jones will be cut. He’s been a big disappointment — yet Seattle’s investment in him, plus the way they persevered with him during a poor 2024 season, suggests they’re determined to feature this type of defensive lineman, capable of lining up in different positions and providing an edge threat plus good run defense.

There are enough interior O-line prospects to wait until round two if you want to. Burch, Williams and Stewart are all players with rare physical attributes for their size. None are the finished product, yet all have the potential to be exciting players.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle went OL/DL or DL/OL with their first two picks. John Schneider has done this five times since 2010 — and he’s taken a trenches player with one of his top-two picks in all but two of his drafts.

EDGE rushers

I think there’s a strong chance Abdul Carter will be the #1 overall pick. After that, I think it’s a bit of an overrated group. James Pearce didn’t live up to expectations and while he looks the part and had a great pass-rush win percentage in 2024, I worry about his ability to set the edge and play all downs in certain schemes. Mike Green is a very interesting player from Marshall — how he tests and interviews will dictate how early he’s taken. I really like Josaiah Stewart but his testing and measurables will be important too. Princely Umanmielen, when he’s in the mood, can be a real force.

I’ve moved Jack Sawyer up a round because he’s been better in the playoffs but I think he, JT Tuimoloau and Landon Jackson just lack that special burst and quickness to warrant being graded higher than round three.

Defensive tackles

Mason Graham should be the first or second overall pick for me. After that, I’m a huge fan of TJ Sanders and Walter Nolen and believe both should be first round picks in this class — top-40 at worst.

Tyleik Williams is great to watch. He’s a warrior who brings it every play. His lack of length and the fact he’s more of a battler than a pass-rusher might limit his stock to round two. I really like Ty Robinson and think he could be a riser throughout the draft process.

I sat down last week and really dove into Ryle Mills. I think if he wasn’t injured again, I’d have him in round two. The splash plays stand out too often, as does his obvious athleticism. He’s a high-upside talent and frankly if the Seahawks went Booker/Burch/Mills with their top three picks — they might be on to a real winner (just make sure you sign a couple of veteran O-liners).

I think Kenneth Grant is overrated due to his presence on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list. I thought his tape was average. Deone Walker has an unorthodox body shape and I thought his tape was also fairly average in 2024. Derrick Harmon at Oregon, for me, is a day-two pick.

Unless names emerge, it’s not looking like a good nose-tackle class.

Linebackers

The more I’ve looked at this position group, the more the word ‘average’ feels appropriate beyond the top three names on my board.

On a positive note — Carson Schwesinger. Wow. I’ve continued to study his tape and I’ve not liked a linebacker as much as him since blog favourite Logan Wilson. If I was a good team picking in the late first, I would legitimately consider taking him. His field instinct, aggression, ability to run to the ball-carrier across the field, his tackling, his agility to drop — I think he’s going to be an excellent NFL linebacker and he’s one of favourite players in the entire class.

Jalon Walker’s season went a similar way to Malaki Starks’. As the year went on, I thought they both regressed. Even so, he’s shown enough that he can be an aggressive, blitzing dynamo. Jihaad Campbell is a tank. If he shows similar agility to Fred Warner, he could go very early.

The rest are much of a muchness. Sonny Styles has outstanding physical attributes. I’m a big fan of the way Demetrius Knight plays. I can’t really get excited about the others.

Cornerbacks

This is always the position I like to study the least during the season because I think the combine is the best way to study how players drop and transition — and when you’ve seen those workouts, you can then head back to the tape. As such, I tend to watch run-defense more during the season (who’s actually willing to do it) and how often players are around the ball.

Jahdae Barron’s run defense stood out to me and I really enjoyed watching Xavier Scott. Overall though, this doesn’t look like an exciting cornerback class. Hopefully players emerge in the next month or so.

Safetys

This is a decent group. Malaki Starks has played well within himself for a number of weeks. Nick Emmanwori could overtake him as the top safety — especially when he blows up the combine.

Kevin Winston Jr is immensely talented so it’s a shame he got injured. How will it impact his stock? Billy Bowman plays with his hair on fire, while Texas’ Andrew Mukuba is highly underrated. He might lack size but he flies to the ball.

Xavier Watts is like a magnet to the ball but testing will determine his upside. Too many people are sleeping on the versatile Abe Camara — while Lathan Ransom and Hunter Wohler are both really solid players.

In 2018, Adam Gase was fired by the Miami Dolphins. His offense had just finished the season ranked 31st in the NFL.

On his staff was Ben Johnson. When Gase was canned, Johnson moved to the Lions to work for Matt Patricia in Detroit — originally as an offensive quality control coach before looking after the tight ends. The Lions had the 26th ranked offense in Patricia’s final season before he was fired.

When Dan Campbell took over he kept Johnson as part of his staff in the role of passing game coordinator. The offense struggled under offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, leading to Johnson taking over play-calling duties in-season.

Johnson is now the most dynamic, innovative offensive coordinator in the league. Yet at no point during his stints under Gase or Patricia would you guess that would be the case one day. He was an unknown among most NFL fans.

The discussion over who should replace Ryan Grubb in Seattle mostly focuses on the following two types of candidate — former Head Coaches or coaches working for successful Head Coaches or coordinators at other teams.

It’s entirely possible for the Seahawks to find a great option this way. Retreads and coaches with undeserved reputations, however, can be deceptive appointments.

Is a fired Head Coach like Doug Pederson, who admitted last week the Jaguars job could be his last in the NFL, the person who is going to come in and drive the offense forwards? Does he still have the energy and desire to put everything into it? As a former Super Bowl winning Head Coach, does he want to spend the next few years being a coordinator? Or is it time to enjoy his wealth and take a step back?

Do coaches working for great Head Coaches or coordinators, or working with great players, gain inflated reputations? Unquestionably yes. Just because you’ve worked for Andy Reid, coaching Patrick Mahomes, doesn’t mean you’re cut out to lead an offense and manage a lesser talent at quarterback. Nathaniel Hackett, highly regarded when a coordinator working for Matt LaFleur, was a disaster as a Head Coach in Denver and an offensive coordinator in New York. The less said about Shane Waldron, who used to work for Sean McVay, the better.

The Seahawks need a visionary. Someone who can present a plan to Mike Macdonald that he fully buys into. Someone who Macdonald feels he can have a long-lasting working relationship with — a kindred spirit, if you will. They have to be philosophically aligned and avoid an arranged marriage, as they seemingly tried to do with Grubb. It’s not just about saying you promise to run the ball either. It’s sitting in front of Macdonald and John Schneider and producing a compelling vision for how you’re going to set up Seattle’s offense for success.

Macdonald talked about the challenge Grubb faced not fully understanding the different coaching trees within the NFL and how it connected different teams schematically. He needs to use his own knowledge of the various offensive DNA’s he’s competed against and pick the one he thinks will be able to challenge opponents the most, in the style he wants.

We should all be prepared, including the Seahawks, for the right candidate to be someone who doesn’t fit the ‘trendy’ billing.

Johnson is the best example of unexpected success to NFL outsiders. There are others though. Liam Coen has succeeded in Tampa Bay this year. After a strong year coaching Will Levis at Kentucky, he was appointed Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator. It didn’t work — so after one year he went back to Kentucky. A year later, he goes to Tampa Bay and now he’s a hot candidate to be a Head Coach. You wouldn’t have projected that two years ago when he departed the Rams to go back to college.

I discussed earlier today on Puck Sports why I think Mike Kafka shouldn’t just be written off because of the Giants’ woeful offensive production. The truth is, he hasn’t been calling plays and they’ve had to field a combination of Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock and Daniel Jones at quarterback. Their offensive line is awful. Brian Daboll reportedly created a toxic environment to work in. None of this is conducive with success. His ability as a Head Coach (he’s getting interviews) or as an offensive leader in Seattle, probably shouldn’t be dismissed just because of the situation in New York. He might be bad — but the Giants being bad shouldn’t be reason alone to assume that.

In a way I’d almost rather the Seahawks avoid just appointing the passing game coordinator or non-play-calling offensive coordinator from the Chiefs, Packers, Ravens, 49ers or Rams. Hey, you helped Lamar Jackson have a great year. Congratulations. Oh, Matt LaFleur is still good at his job and you helped, like Nathaniel Hackett. Well done. Crikey, that Mahomes wins a lot of games. Maybe you can bring him with you?

The best person for the job might be part of a staff that just toiled through an awful slog of a season, working for a bad boss and dealing with bad players. It might not be obvious but they might be the one with a great vision, who can communicate well, can lead and can align with Macdonald in a way that he doesn’t have to constantly tell the offensive coordinator what to do.

The truth is, none of us know anything about these staffs. Benjamin Solak wrote an article in August ranking the Washington Commanders’ staff 31st in the league. They just finished 11-6. The Vikings, who I think most people would agree should be in the top-three, and not just because of Kevin O’Connell, only came in 10th.

I’m intrigued by Josh McCown but not because I’m convinced he’ll be an amazing schemer. I simply think it’s a unique feather in his cap that he’s had an 18-year NFL career, playing for 13 different teams, and that his exposure to so many different schemes will be useful if you want to give him a shot. Also, it’s clear listening to him speak that he’s a very effective communicator.

I’m increasingly intrigued by Dave Ragone too. He was Arthur Smith’s offensive coordinator in Atlanta for three years — and reportedly Macdonald originally wanted to pair with Smith if he got an opportunity to be a NFL Head Coach. A close friend of Sean McVay’s, Ragone spent the last year as LA’s quarterbacks coach and was a former third round pick as a quarterback. He also recommended O-line coach Mike Munchak to McVay as he reshaped the trenches this year — with Munchak accepting a consultancy role. Maybe Ragone could pair himself with Munchak, who has Head Coaching experience?

If you’d have asked me immediately after Grubb’s firing who I’d least like to appoint, it would be another inexprienced coach out of college. However, who’s to say the best man wouldn’t be someone like Tommy Rees? He’s only one year into his NFL career. In his spells with Notre Dame and Alabama he was very run-centric. He’s been the passing game specialist & tight ends coach for Kevin Stefanski this season. People might want to run a mile and say he’s too similar to Grubb and isn’t experienced enough. Yet if he has the right vision and ideas, maybe it’d be worth the risk? You can’t let your experience with Grubb influence things too much. You’ve got to search everywhere for the right coordinator.

It once again shows the challenge facing teams who possess a defensive-minded Head Coach. Any team in the reverse situation, seeking a defensive coordinator, can try and convince Robert Saleh, Dennis Allen or Lou Anarumo to take the gig. A year ago, Vic Fangio and Brian Flores were available. There just aren’t the same level of offensive coordinator candidates available.

The Seahawks might need to find someone who isn’t a hot name on the internet. Someone who might not be coaching an elite player, or working for a fantastic Head Coach or coordinator. It might need to be someone like Ben Johnson who we knew little about but had the vision and the ideas and just needed an opportunity. The Seahawks need the next Ben Johnson, not the next Shane Waldron or Nathaniel Hackett.

Watch my latest spot on Puck Sports below (fast forward to 33:34):

My prediction was that Jake Peetz would be the next Seahawks offensive coordinator. However, Mike Macdonald said at his press conference today that they weren’t planning to promote any internal candidates. While I suppose that could change, I’m going to proceed assuming Peetz isn’t the man.

I think it’s hard to ‘root’ for anyone in these searches. A lot of people will attach to coaches based on who they work for, without any knowledge as to whether they’re actually suited to running Seattle’s offense. Sometimes positional coaches get an undeserved boost because their boss, be it a coordinator or Head Coach, is great at his job. Or perhaps they’re just lucky enough to coach great players.

Ben Johnson is currently the most highly rated, dynamic offensive coordinator in the NFL. Not many people knew who he was five years ago. His previous job before joining the Lions was working for Adam Gase in Miami. He wasn’t exactly on the Shanahan/McVay tree. The ideal candidate for the Seahawks might not be an obvious name, working for a trendy offense.

I have to admit a slight trepidation about the process. As I keep saying, plenty of defensive-minded Head Coaches fail because they can’t get the offensive coordinator right.

Ideally, you have a pairing that is ready made — either due to a recent connection or a long-lasting relationship. Sean McVay being able to lure Wade Phillips to be his defensive coordinator was a masterstroke when he joined the Rams. I wish Macdonald had been able to make a similar connection, rather than having to go looking as he’s having to do for a second time. Reportedly he had hoped to appoint Arthur Smith before he joined the Steelers.

Macdonald did say today the new coordinator doesn’t necessarily need previous play-calling experience. He also said they had ‘a couple’ of requests for interviews in with other teams. No names were mentioned.

At the moment, the name I hope they speak to is Vikings quarterback coach Josh McCown. His experience in the league, operating within a number of different schemes, is appealing. It’s very easy to see why he’s getting Head Coaching interviews in this cycle and was previously heavily linked with the top job in Houston. As a communicator, he is very effective. It’s easy to imagine him relating to modern NFL players.

He isn’t the most experienced coach having only had two roles — one lasting a matter of months before the Panthers had their latest meltdown. However, none of the up-and-coming coaches touted for coordinator jobs have a CV quite like McCown’s. He had an 18-year playing career taking in 13 different destinations. He was forced to learn and adapt to numerous different schemes.

Just think for a second the depth of knowledge you’d acquire doing that. Even as the backup quarterback — you’re always a play away from being on the field. You have to understand everything — philosophy, blocking, route concepts, why you’re doing what you’re doing. McCown’s journeyman career has exposed him to so many different ideas and he’ll have had to master every single scheme in each different job.

If you appoint someone from Andy Reid’s staff, for example, who’s only really worked for Reid, do they have that same depth of knowledge?

I’ve listened to interviews with most of the candidates people have suggested as possible targets for the Seahawks and I have to say, a lot of them don’t exactly light up the screen. McCown does. Communication, experience and variety feel like key aspects for an offensive leader.

It’s difficult to slice up who deserves what credit for Sam Darnold’s relaunch this season between Kevin O’Connell, McCown and Darnold himself. You can only judge from afar though, without the background knowledge teams have. McCown was Darnold’s quarterback coach the year he broke out.

It’s possible he would rather stay in Minnesota and continue to work with O’Connell having only been there for one season. It’s also possible he’ll be appointed to be a Head Coach by someone.

Of all the unknowns out there, he’s the one that would probably generate the most intrigue I think. Again, that comes with the caveat of not knowing enough about these candidates to say ‘I want him’ with any certainty.

I’d guess they’re open to the idea of an ex-Head Coach coming in, I’m just not sure who that is. Doug Pederson is mentioned a lot but he also spent last week discussing the possibility of retirement. Aside from that, who else is there? I’m guessing Josh McDaniels might go wherever Mike Vrabel goes. Various reports have suggested Jon Gruden is being considered by some teams as a Head Coach — but I’m not sure the Seahawks would be the franchise to restart his career, given the email revelations that led to his departure from the Raiders. I don’t think Chip Kelly’s Ohio State offense, at least during the regular season, is worthy of hoping he decides he wants to come back to the NFL. Jim Caldwell, now a Senior Assistant with the Panthers, would’ve been ideal a few years ago. He also previously worked for John Harbaugh. He turns 70 in January so I’m not sure he’d be looking to return to a lead role.

Peter King looked at potential offensive coordinator candidates a year ago. Funnily enough two of the names on his list — Jake Peetz and Charles London — ended up on Seattle’s staff as passing-game coordinator and quarterbacks coach.

He mentioned Brian Fleury the 49ers tight ends coach, a name that has been mentioned by some:

Unknown outside the Niners, valued highly inside the building as the run-game authority trusted by Kyle Shanahan. You get points with Shanahan for knowing the complete game, and Fleury has been a linebackers coach, director of football research, quality control coach and assistant position coach in his NFL years. Shanahan will not want to lose him.

King noted Tee Martin in Baltimore:

Has all the experience you’d want—fifth-round pick of the Steelers in 2000, journeyman pro QB for six years, coached at four colleges (USC offensive coordinator in 2016-’18), QB coach of Lamar Jackson under Todd Monken this year. Jackson loves him, and Ravens credit Martin as well as Monken for Jackson’s rise this year. Great credibility with players, and knows a lot of offenses.

One name to note who might be in the ‘not immediately obvious but has an interesting background’ is Justin Outten, the current Titans tight ends coach and former running game coordinator under Mike Vrabel:

Interesting career path after being a center for Syracuse two decades ago. Entered the league in 2016 as a coaching intern under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, then worked for Matt LaFleur, also off the Shanahan/McVay tree, in Green Bay for three years before Nathaniel Hackett hired him as OC in Denver last year. Now rebuilding his rep under Mike Vrabel. Bright and experienced.

Of course, Seattle had a chance to interview all of the names above and seemingly opted not to a year ago.

It’s a little bit surprising reading King’s blurb for Peetz, someone Macdonald noted he knows well, that he isn’t in contention:

“He’ll win every interview,” one peer told me. Former QB coach of the Raiders and Panthers, former offensive analyst for Nick Saban at Alabama, former OC at LSU. Well-respected by Sean McVay in his two years with the Rams. What impressed me is Puka Nacua telling me in October that he learned the Rams’ offense in long early-morning sessions with Peetz in May and June. Imaginative guy.

Perhaps Peetz doesn’t want to be a coordinator?

Maybe it’s worth looking at the teams with great production in the running game in 2024? Running quarterbacks inflate the numbers for teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington. They make up the top-three for rushing production this season. Tampa Bay’s running game ranked fourth and they recorded 149.2 yards per game without a running QB, so maybe it’ll lead to an interview for someone like Josh Grizzard. He’s in his first season as the passing-game coordinator with the Buccs but I don’t think you need to be controlling the running game to understand what works. He went to Yale and has an eight-year coaching career.

The Dallas Cowboys ranked 5th in run-block win-rate and Rico Dowdle ran for 1079 yards at 4.6 YPC despite only taking on the starting role in October (and with little help from the passing game with Dak Prescott out). There’s been some clamour for Brian Schottenheimer to return — but who knows whether John Schneider was a fan of Schotty.

I’d be a little bit wary of focusing on run-centric coaches. The Lions originally hired Anthony Lynn to be Dan Campbell’s offensive coordinator. He lasted one year before being replaced by Ben Johnson, who has since turned the Lions into the most exciting team to watch in the NFL with Jared Goff at quarterback. As much as the Seahawks want to run the ball, their best hope is someone more aligned to Macdonald who is a visionary, rather than simply run-obsessed.

Nick Caley and Jerry Schuplinski, both with the Rams, get brought up but are they any more of a fit than Jake Peetz, who previously held a similar job for Sean McVay? I am still intrigued by McVay-tree coaches though. Shane Waldron flopped but O’Connell, Matt LaFleur and Liam Coen have thrived. I also really like the way they’ve changed up their offensive line personnel and blocking scheme and would like the Seahawks to adapt a similar approach (I’m going to write about this later in the week). Mike Munchak has been consulting with the Rams this year and could come in as a proven O-line coach.

Dave Ragone, the quarterbacks coach in LA, is another name. If Macdonald wanted to appoint Arthur Smith a year ago, Ragone was his (non play-calling) offensive coordinator in Atlanta. He’s been a NFL coach for 14 years and was a quarterback taken in the third round of the 2003 draft. He worked with McVay on the talented Washington staff a decade ago and the pair are said to be close friends. Speaking of Munchak, here’s what McVay said a year ago:

“(Ragone) and Coach Munchak have a great relationship and he actually was the first one to connect us… I’m grateful that he did and he’s been a tremendous asset to us this year.”

Kevin Patullo is very different in terms of personality to Nick Sirianni in Philadelphia and might be able to bring across some ideas around how to build an offensive line. Can Tanner Engstrand bring the Ben Johnson offense to Seattle, or is Johnson a unique character in Detroit? Would the Seahawks value Klint Kubiak’s experience with Kyle Shanahan and the way the 49ers run the football? I get the sense the Saints might hope to appoint Aaron Glenn as Head Coach and keep Kubiak as offensive coordinator. His brother Klay Kubiak is San Francisco’s current passing game specialist and could be an option. Shanahan let him call plays against Arizona in week 18 and he produced 436 yards of total offense with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback.

Marcus Brady worked with Jim Harbaugh this year. He’s an ex-quarterback in the CFL before becoming assistant QB coach in Indianapolis in 2018. He was then promoted gradually up to offensive coordinator, before a spell in Philadelphia. Brady then joined the Chargers as passing game coordinator. When he was with the Colts he fielded a dominant run-blocking unit but he could also rely on Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith blocking for Jonathan Taylor.

Tommy Rees has only coached in the NFL for one year under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. He might not be ready to call plays at this level. However, when he coordinated at Notre Dame and Alabama, he was a big proponent of the run game as a focal point of the offense.

They might check in with the Giants again about Mike Kafka. There was a lot of buzz around Seattle’s interest in Kafka, both as a Head Coach and a coordinator. Eventually he was given a new title (Assistant Head Coach) to keep him in New York. I’m not sure they’d allow him to leave — they also clearly rate him, thus the promotion. As they prepare, in all likelihood, to draft a new quarterback — it would seem a weird time to let him walk, if you weren’t going to a year ago. He could be Schneider’s top target, he just might be unavailable. Joe Bleymaier, Andy Reid’s passing-game coordinator who replaced Kafka in Kansas City, is often touted as a future coordinator.

They only spoke to Miami’s Frank Smith about the Head Coaches position — and didn’t give him a second interview. He might not have impressed during that initial conversation but he was the Chargers’ run-game coordinator before joining Mike McDaniel in Miami. He previously worked for Jon Gruden and Sean Payton, who coached the Broncos to a league-leading O-line for run-block win-rate this year. Would he be interested in a change of scenery and a chance to lead an offense?

McCown is the name at the moment that I think would create the most buzz. However, given what I’ve written here, I’d probably be just as excited by someone who is obscure, who hasn’t worked for a loaded offense or a great boss and gained an undeserved reputation boost, and has maybe got the kind of unique vision that can help the Seahawks find the next Ben Johnson, rather than the next Shane Waldron.

It’s felt like this has been on the cards for weeks.

Ryan Grubb isn’t a bad coach. He and Kalen DeBoer crafted dynamic, explosive offenses at Fresno State and Washington. He was an intriguing candidate for the Seahawks a year ago and given the small pool of quality alternatives, he was worth taking a chance on.

However, this was the right move.

Plenty of defensive-minded Head Coaches fail because the offense never clicks. It’s vital for Mike Macdonald that he appoints an offensive coordinator who can effectively be the ‘Head Coach’ of the offense. That can’t be a NFL novice, learning the role as he goes along. It needs to be someone who has been in the league for a long time, has called plays before and has worked with great coaches in their career.

The Seahawks need someone who can bring together a complete vision for Macdonald, connecting a hard-nosed defensive identity with effective running and explosive plays. He talked on 710 Seattle Sports this morning, admitted their visions for the offense were not aligned. Macdonald needs ‘his guy’ for this to work.

Make no mistake, this is a huge hire. They have to get this right. But they couldn’t shirk the challenge and had to make the change.

Listening to Macdonald last week describe needing to put other coaches around Grubb to help him understand the different offensive DNA’s was eye-opening. This can’t be a developmental opportunity. Grubb had never coached in the NFL, was learning on the run and that wasn’t going to cut it. The next coordinator needs to be Macdonald: offensive version.

From route spacing, imperfect use of play-action, head-scratching situational decisions, the inability to get the right balance between pass and run, the predictability of his screen game, the bad red zone moments and the inability to make the most of Seattle’s weapons — they need a more experienced man running the offense.

Who could that be?

I think Jake Peetz has a great chance to be the next coordinator. He took his first NFL job in 2012 and has had many roles in the league – acting as a quarterback coach, running backs coach and passing game coordinator. He called plays at LSU and he’s worked with Sean McVay. Last year he was a hot name as a potential future NFL coordinator and it was a surprise he ended up in Seattle in a lesser position.

Shane Waldron flopped but other McVay-tree coaches – Liam Coen, Kevin O’Connell, Matt LaFleur – have thrived.

Doug Pederson will be mentioned. He touted the possibility of retirement last week if he was fired by the Jaguars – and that was confirmed today. His experience would be highly beneficial, he’s connected to Andy Reid (big for John Schneider I sense) and there’s little chance he would be poached for a third Head Coaching stint. Does he want to go back to being a coordinator, though?

Could they look at a big-time up-and-comer like Josh McCown in Minnesota? If Ben Johnson is serious about staying in Detroit, does Tanner Engstrand re-emerge as a target? Will they approach the Giants again about Mike Kafka?

My money is on Peetz. Macdonald has a connection to him now, clearly respects the McVay system and it would enable some continuity between players and staff.

This, to me, was the first move that had to be made. It’s a good start to Seattle’s off-season.

Here’s a live stream I conducted earlier discussing the news:

There’s not much to say about today’s final game, which didn’t even have draft position at stake (the Seahawks were locked into the #18 pick before kick-off). I thought the defense played a fair bit below expectations, given who was starting for the Rams. The offense, though, played better than expected and effectively won Seattle the game.

It means a 10-win season. Like many others, that’s what I predicted in pre-season. Now that they’re here, though, I think it feels more hollow than I would’ve expected.

They only had two wins against teams with winning records — Denver in week one (Bo Nix’s first NFL start) and against the Rams today, albeit against several of LA’s backups. It would’ve felt better had they had a statement win along the way against a proper team. Sadly, they didn’t — and they were easily beaten at home by the Bills, 49ers, Packers and, remarkably, the Giants. Losing that game against such a bad Giants team sticks in the craw. I wish they’d had a win of note to take away the aftertaste.

Going 3-6 at home was a big disappointment and it’s something the franchise should take very seriously internally. How do they fix this? The Seahawks haven’t been a very good home team for a few years now and it’s a problem. Going 7-1 on the road highlights the issue. They can and should be better at Lumen Field.

Defensively they’ve clearly improved, even if they gave up 403 yards and 20 first downs to Jimmy Garoppolo and friends today. It’s been a joy to watch Leonard Williams. Julian Love has emerged as one of the batter safety’s in the league. They tweaked their personnel mid-season to great effect — that isn’t easy to do. They still need more and I hope they capitalise on a draft class with some interesting defensive talent available. I’m not worried about Mike Macdonald’s defense holding up its end of the bargain going forwards though.

For the offense, I’m a lot more concerned. I think Macdonald badly needs someone who can run and control his offense at a high level. A lot of defensive-minded Head Coaches fail because they can’t get the offense operating properly. This isn’t a job for a NFL novice and I’m afraid, experimenting with a college coach who’d never worked in the league before was a mistake.

I don’t think Ryan Grubb is a terrible coach by any means. I just don’t think he’s right for the Seahawks. I don’t think you can learn how to be a NFL coordinator on the job, especially when you’re working for a defensive-minded leader who needs you to be on point.

Grubb, if he’s serious about a NFL career rather than returning to college, probably needs to take a step back and take a passing-coordinator job or something like that, learning the ropes that way. The Seahawks need a Head Coach for their offense. Someone with the experience of play-calling and leading a unit, or someone with the talent and chops to get there quickly.

Continuing with Grubb would be an error. From route spacing, imperfect use of play-action, head-scratching situational decisions, the inability to get the right balance between pass and run, the predictability of his screen game, the bad red zone moments and the inability to make the most of Seattle’s weapons — they need a more experienced man running the offense.

It doesn’t have to be a former Head Coach (although that would be appealing). The league is full of successful coordinators without that background. But it needs to be someone who has put in the hard yards already to position themselves to succeed, with the knowledge and experience required, having worked around the NFL’s best current play-callers. I want to see a change.

I think it’s inevitable to the point of near-certainty that Geno Smith will be back next season. When certain reporters speak, you have to pay attention. Brady Henderson is one of those reporters. He has been quite clear that his expectation is Smith will return because there isn’t an obvious, superior replacement.

I don’t have a problem with this. The thing I do take issue with is the lack of a pathway to the future. As I’ve said a few times, the Seahawks have a good bridge quarterback with nobody to actually bridge to. Until they have a young player on the roster that you can believe in as a future possible starter, it’s hard to generate much excitement for the franchise.

I think that’s all a lot of fans want, really. It’s not so much a desperation to move on from Smith. It’s a desperation to see a plan for life after Smith. I don’t think that’s unfair. He’ll be 35 next year. He has some very good games — this was one today. He also has some poor games, with costly mistakes. Meanwhile, he is becoming increasingly more expensive and the only attempts to add a younger player since trading Russell Wilson have been Drew Lock and Sam Howell.

Equally, it should be noted that I don’t think the Seahawks have passed on anyone worth having, with hindsight, in the three drafts since dealing Wilson. I don’t blame them for not drafting a quarterback. However, they’re three years on now. They’re at a stage, especially with Smith’s price going up, where I think they need to be seen to be doing a bit more. Whether that’s identifying someone in the draft they believe has the tools to at least attempt to develop over time, or signing a cheap reclamation project to have on the roster and compete for, if nothing else, Howell’s backup job in 2025 — an addition of sorts is required.

Kicking the can down the road, doing nothing and waiting for the perfect prospect to become available is a hard sell because that player may never arrive. While waiting, the Seahawks have to work to develop players like other teams are doing (with the Vikings a classic example this year). This can still happen without having to cut Geno Smith, so draft or sign someone to add to the group.

Negotiating a compromised deal will be a challenge. In 2023, Smith tested the market and that helped the player and team reach an agreement. Now, the Seahawks have no gauge of the market. Smith’s camp will point to a $44.5m cap-hit and presumably say, ‘we’ll sit on that if you don’t do what we want’. That doesn’t feel viable for a team needing to raise money, even if there are other ways to create room.

The other big offensive questions include D.K. Metcalf’s future, a huge storyline obviously, and the need to fix the offensive line. I thought it was troubling and unnecessary for John Schneider to say pre-game today, “We’ve never been a big free agency team” when asked about the off-season. It’s a quote that will irk fans hoping the team is going to do all it can to improve the O-line. The Seahawks, for years, have relied on draft picks and cheap, short-term, band-aid solutions on the line. It hasn’t worked. Nobody wants them to be reckless in free agency — but neither, I suspect, does anyone want to hear the GM playing down the usefulness of the veteran market ahead of an important off-season.

Personally I think they do need to sign one or two veterans — and ideally not the typical Laken Tomlinson, B.J. Finney, Brandon Shell types. I don’t think you can fix this purely through the draft. Free agents and trades should be considered. If someone like Trey Smith reaches the market, I’d like to see them do whatever it takes to try and land him. Nobody will criticise Schneider for splashing out on a guard like Smith. They will criticise him if he waits until the third week of free agency, signs someone who is left available for $2m and the line struggles again.

Assuming Smith isn’t available, there are other veteran players who might cost a bit more than they’ve been comfortable paying in the past but can do a job. Surely it’s time for them to consider a different approach? I hope ownership is willing to stress this point.

I want them to bring back Jarran Reed — but also hope they’ll not be left to force multiple needs on the offensive line in the draft. There are a handful of defensive linemen in this draft, who won’t go in the first round, with the physical qualities to be really good at the next level. I think this is a class where you might be able to find a diamond in the rough on defense in rounds 2-4 — and that’s at every position too. There are some very intriguing defenders set to go in that range.

It seems certain they’ll re-sign Ernest Jones. His agents did a good job this weekend, letting the media know contract talks were being parked to apply a bit of pressure. I doubt they loved Jones telling everyone a deal will ‘definitely’ get done after the game. Whatever media leverage game they were hoping to play, it kind of died in that moment.

A word on Tyler Lockett, who probably played his final game for the Seahawks today. He is one of their greatest ever draft picks and it was a pleasure to watch his career in Seattle.

So there we are. Another season ends. The Seahawks will pick 18th in the draft. I think #18 could be a bit of a no-man’s land position. You’re going to miss out on the top-tier of players. Seattle’s placing also might be a little bit too early to dive into the interior O-line class — so a trade down could be on the cards. It’ll be interesting to see if Drew Allar declares and if he does, what range he is projected to go. Would they trade up for him? Would he last to #18? Is he the kind of player Schneider would deem worthy of drafting to develop?

I hope they make the moves this off-season, including taking some risks, to take the next step and give fans a reason to dream again. I’m not sure anyone today is thinking like they were in 2012 — ‘one more off-season’. There’s work to do — and yet I don’t think internally they considered this a ‘rebuild’ at all after firing Pete Carroll.

Watching a team stuck in the middle can be frustrating. Like many, I’m desperate to see the Seahawks competing against the NFL’s best and being a serious playoff threat again. The evidence of this season is that they’re not close to being a great team. They’re very much in the ‘good’ category, with little in the way of obvious young star power at the most important positions.

My fear, as it has been for some time, is that they think they’re closer than they actually are. I hope, instead, they attack the off-season and by the end of the draft, there’s some genuine excitement surrounding the future of the Seahawks. Next year, they need to win some of those games against big opponents and dramatically improve their record at Lumen Field, while offering a clearer vision to future glory.

If you missed our post-game stream after the Rams game, check it out here:

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen, replacing his typical ‘watch-notes’ today with nothing on the line against the Rams

The offseason officially starts Monday for the Seahawks. And as usual, it promises to bring a number of changes to the franchise.

A hot and cold offense hampered by severe Offensive Line issues and disjointed play calling, a defense that appears to need one more key component and the viability of the players with the biggest salary cap hits next year mean it will not be boring in the least.

Last year we outlined key dates and discussed their potential impact. Let’s look at the significant dates for this offseason and talk our way through the timeline of decisions the Seahawks will need to make.

The first – and potentially most impactful – decision the team needs to make has no timetable. But it definitely has a deadline.

January – Determining How Much of the Offensive Staff to Change

Much has been written about Ryan Grubb’s performance as Offensive Coordinator this season. So, we do not need to belabor the point.

Except to say this: it feels strongly that the game plans and play calling this year evinced a real apathy about how poor this Offensive Line was playing. It does feel like a more aware Coordinator could have given his offense more chances to be successful. The Week 14 win against Arizona demonstrated what was possible: 409 yards of offense split between 233 yards passing and 176 running, zero turnovers, zero sacks and only four pressures allowed. Yet the Seahawks left that model in the dust just as quickly as they adopted it.

The Seahawks will need to make decisions quickly on Grubb and the rest of the staff and have a group in place sooner rather than later. Why? January is a month spent behind closed doors. Watching tape. Setting up your attack plan for the offseason. Having discussions about traits the coordinators desire for their players.

Last season, Ryan Grubb was hired on February 13. The whole offseason felt rushed and uncoordinated and the results on the field reflected that. Grubb missed prep time with the staff, the Senior Bowl week of activity and three days after he was hired the team had decisions to make on Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf.

More time to get on the same page is needed. The Seahawks need to act in a determined, focused manner here.

The last week of the month includes the Shrine Bowl and the Senior Bowl practices – a key time for evaluating talent that will be entering the draft as well as rubbing elbows with fellow General Managers, scouts and agents for some unsanctioned exchanges of information.

There is also a window here to discuss and agree to trades. Granted, it is rare. But do not forget – the Lions and Rams traded Quarterbacks in January even though it could not be made official until March. The Super Bowl had not even been played yet and a trade that would define a good chunk of the NFC picture for the next few seasons was made.

February – Contract Guarantee Triggers, Franchise Tag Window, Scouting Combine

The Seahawks like to structure their contracts for their bigger name players to have guaranteed money that kicks in five days after the Super Bowl and that is no exception for 2025. They have three such contract triggers to consider. Two of them are fairly easy but the third one is tough.

Julian Love has an option bonus of $4.8 million that kicks in and is prorated over the next three seasons. His $1.2 million salary also becomes guaranteed. It certainly feels like the team highly values Love and his contributions, and these numbers are not punitive to their cap much at all.

Leonard Williams has the biggest plum with $17.7 million of his $20 million salary that will guarantee on February 14th. This one feels even more obvious, as Williams has had a tremendous season for the Seahawks. Side note: we talked this fall about restructuring Williams’ contract to pick up some cap room and Williams is a great candidate for that.

Then we come to the tough one: Uchenna Nwosu’s contract calls for $6 million of his 2025 salary to be guaranteed on February 14th. If the Seahawks let that date lapse without cutting him or renegotiating his contract, they will be boxed in to a $21 million cap hit for 2025. Cutting him would only net $2.4 million in space. Trading him would net $8.4 million but a guaranteed $6 million salary after two injury-shortened seasons might not bring a whole lot in trade compensation.

One thing to know: The Seahawks have typically let these guarantee triggers happen, even when it seems against their interests.

This year, Dre’Mont Jones’ $7 million guarantee and Geno Smith’s $12.7 million guarantee happened. Last year Quandre Diggs’ salary guarantee hit, coming off an injury-recovery 2022 and looking at an $18 million cap hit.

The Seahawks have not typically been ruthless in this area but Nwosu has missed large portions of two seasons. As good as he has been, questions of the potential diminishing skill set and a $21 million cap hit against a tight cap may force a bolder move here.

On February 18th, teams can place the Franchise Tag on upcoming Free Agents (the window closes March 4th). This is mostly moot for the Seahawks for two reasons:

1 — They do not have the cap room to tag anyone without creating (and then immediately spending) room.

2 — The only Unrestricted Free Agent they would likely tag is Ernest Jones and the linebacker franchise tag is projected to be about $27 million, which is a non-starter.

The Seahawks are free to talk to Jones about an extension. Nobody else can officially talk to him about a contract until the Legal Tampering Window (sorry, ‘Negotiation Period’ as the NFL calls it) opens in March. Given both sides have expressed a desire to continue working together, this bodes well for a contract announcement not unlike the team did with Leonard Williams.

What about the Scouting Combine? It is Feb 24th to March 3rd in Indianapolis and Rob will cover it extensively as he always has.

Player testing, medical checks and interviews are a key part of the team building process for all teams.

However, the worst-kept secret in the NFL is this gathering affords General Managers, coaches and agents of current players an open excuse to be in proximity to one another. Savvy professionals on all sides use this opportunity to gauge the salary and trade markets for their players under contract as well as potential free agents. It is not a coincidence that after 2023’s combine finished on March 6th, Geno Smith had his new Seahawks contract agreed to the next day.

The Seahawks have a lot of ground to cover in this area, with a lot of moving parts on their roster. Information gathering at this event is crucial to inform decisions they will make this offseason.

March – Free Agency, New League Year & Cap Compliance Deadline, Restricted & Exclusive Rights FA Tenders Due, Roster Bonuses Due

Now we are cooking. This is when the offseason work behind closed doors really starts to pay off and the team reveals a good chunk of their plans for the roster and cap.

March 9th is a key date. This is the last day they can exclusively talk to Ernest Jones about an extension. They also need to make (or have made) some moves to get under the salary cap when the league year begins March 12th.

The Legal Tampering Period opens March 10th. Unrestricted Free Agents can negotiate with teams. As we have discussed, the Seahawks do not have much cap room in order to go shopping. A big investment on the interior of the offensive line might be the biggest step the team could take to improve its play in 2025 though.

March 12th is also the annual deadline to tender Restricted and Exclusive Rights Free Agents. Here is the list of Seahawks candidates:

Among the ERFA’s, Brady Russell seems an easy choice to tender. It will not require much beyond a minimum-salary commitment to pick him up.

As for Restricted Free Agents, Jobe is an interesting name. The Right of First Refusal Tender is projected to be about $3.185 million. Do the Seahawks rate Jobe that highly?

Keep in mind, the tenders do not lock in the salary as guaranteed. A tender can be used as a placeholder to keep a player on the roster while the team assesses their options and perhaps negotiates a contract.

Then we come to two of the most important dates of the offseason.

On March 18th, Tyler Lockett is due a roster bonus of $5.3 million. With a nearly $31 million cap number and the potential to gain $17 million if cut, it seems obvious that Lockett will not receive this bonus. He has expressed a desire to play in 2025, so we will have to see how Lockett and the Seahawks handle this. They may cut him early in the offseason as a goodwill gesture to let him explore the market as a street free agent and sign wherever he desires.

Two days later (March 20th) the Seahawks have another deadline that will force action. Geno Smith is owed a $10 million roster bonus and can increase that up to $16 million with three $2 million escalators up for grabs (passing yards, completion %, 10 wins).

Chances are, like Lockett, this decision will be made long before the date. Likely the Seahawks and Smith will be in touch on a contract extension and work something out that is mutually beneficial. The biggest challenge may be agreeing on the parameters of an extension.

By the end of March, we should have a very solid idea of how the Seahawks feel about many of their offseason priorities such as the Offensive Line and the Quarterback position.

April – the Draft and Charles Cross’ Fifth-Year Tender

The draft is in Green Bay this year on April 24th to 26th. The culmination of a ton of offseason work presents an opportunity to dramatically change your team’s structure.

Keep in mind, rookie salaries do not hit the cap until their contracts are signed.

On May 1st, the Seahawks face another decision deadline: Whether or not to place the Fifth-year tender on Left Tackle Charles Cross. It is projected to be an $18.4 million cap hit for 2026.

Some reminders on this: If the Seahawks decide to tender Cross, it guarantees his 2025 salary and the $18 million for 2026 is fully guaranteed. They can negotiate an extension any time after tendering him and lower the 2026 cap hit and lock down Cross’ prime seasons.

Also keep in mind they can start negotiating with Cross right now if they choose and avoid the tender decision altogether.

And of course they can choose not to tag Cross but still negotiate an extension. The deadline just becomes March 2026 instead of March 2027 if they do tender him.

May-September – Filling out the Roster & Considering Extending Key Players

Teams like Seattle that have little cap room in February and March look forward to June 1st. They gain cap room and can make official moves that push the roster forward, like signing their draft picks to contracts and making those late-summer moves that receive little fanfare but can make a real difference in their season.

Their draft class is normally under contract by June or so.

They also have several key 2026 free agents they need to consider extending:

D.K. Metcalf
Boye Mafe
Kenneth Walker
Riq Woolen
Abe Lucas

Metcalf might be the priority, as they can open up a bunch of cap space while locking down a talented difference-maker.

They will also need about $8-10 million of cap room saved to secure their Practice Squad before Week One. They also will have vested veterans with non-guaranteed salaries (like Noah Fant) have their salaries guarantee if they are on the roster in Week One.

Round one

#1 New England — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
The Patriots will probably try and dangle this pick but none of the quarterbacks are worth trading up for. Graham is the best player in the draft for me and in a class lacking true blue-chippers, the most likely player to have an excellent career.

#2 Tennessee — Abdul Carter (LB/EDGE, Penn State)
The Titans are a long way off competing and need to add talent, not chase another young quarterback they can lead to failure.

#3 Cleveland — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
They probably will consider the quarterbacks but the worst thing they can do after the Deshaun Watson debacle is reach for one here and compound the error. Ownership should give Kevin Stefanski time to get this right.

#4 NY Giants — Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
If he does end up declaring for the draft, in a down year at the position, there’s no reason why the process couldn’t put him in QB1 contention. He has the most translatable skill-set and has shown rapid progress from last season.

#5 Jacksonville — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
People are sleeping on the top two tight ends. They are legit. Don’t be fooled by Loveland’s lost placement within Michigan’s hopeless passing game. He has a chance to be great.

#6 Carolina — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The Panthers don’t have enough talented players. Warren can come in and basically be Bryce Young’s best friend on the field — offering a dynamic, young target machine they currently lack.

#7 NY Jets — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
This is too rich for me. Ward played very well this year and boosted his stock. I still don’t think he’s a round one player due to the way he plays. However, a lot of connected people seem to be saying he’ll go early so there’s no point fighting it.

#8 Las Vegas — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
Tom Brady and ‘Coach Prime’ could work to make this a reality.

#9 Chicago — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
Without the injury he would’ve been a clear top-15 pick. We’ll see how that impacts his stock but he’s the best left tackle in the draft.

#10 New Orleans — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
A tremendous talent who was hampered by injuries in 2024.

#11 San Francisco — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
Dre Greenlaw is a free agent and has had injuries. Walker is extremely talented.

#12 Indianapolis — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
The league was reportedly super high on Burden going into the 2024 season but he didn’t shine in Missouri’s offense. He might be too good to pass up here.

#13 Dallas — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
As with Burden, if Jeanty falls into this range, even with the positional value lacking, you have to consider him.

#14 Arizona — Malaki Starks (DB, Georgia)
His play tailed off a bit at the end of the season but he’s a chess piece who can pretty much play anywhere in the back-end.

#15 Miami — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
I think his best position will be guard but teams might try him at tackle first. The Dolphins have to address their O-line.

#16 Cincinnati — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
They need a spark to get their defense going again.

#17 Atlanta — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
McMillan has a lot of natural talent. If he falls this far, the Falcons — a big BPA-led front office — might decide they have to take him.

#18 Seattle — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
The Seahawks reportedly liked JC Latham last year and Booker is another big, athletic blocker who can start immediately at left guard.

#19 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
The Texans have no choice but to repair their interior O-line this off-season.

#20 Denver — Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
He glides into routes which is incredible at his size and has soft hands. I think he’ll go earlier than people think.

#21 Tampa Bay — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
He’s built like a tank and moves so well for his size.

#22 LA Chargers — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
He’s extremely raw but Jim Harbaugh took a chance on Aldon Smith and might try and polish this rough diamond too.

#23 LA Rams — Jahdae Barron (DB, Texas)
A very instinctive, physical player who can play in a number of spots.

#24 Green Bay — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
He had a great season and with good testing, could go ahead of some of the bigger name pass rushers in this class.

#25 Pittsburgh — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
He could be their answer to Kyle Hamilton — just with a totally different testing profile.

#26 Washington — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
Campbell lacked aggression and doesn’t always finish, while his arm length means he probably has to kick inside. I don’t think he played well this year. However, the expectation is he’ll test through the roof.

#27 Baltimore — Josh Connerly Jr (T/G, Oregon)
Highly athletic and aggressive, the Ravens could play him at tackle or guard — although he is a bit undersized.

#28 Philadelphia — Jonah Savaiinaea (G/T, Arizona)
He doesn’t finish enough plays for me but when he plays square he can lock in and hold position.

#29 Buffalo — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
One of the more underrated players in the draft. He can wreck an O-line. He did it to Georgia.

#30 Detroit — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
He’s had a stop-start season and hasn’t elevated his stock — but the physical potential is there.

#31 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
At the end of the season we saw his best form, especially against Florida.

#32 Kansas City — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
When he wants to be, Umanmielen can be really difficult to stop.

Round two

#33 Tennessee — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
He showed in the playoff game that he can go in this range.

#34 Cleveland — Wyatt Milum (T/G, West Virginia)
I think he’s strictly a guard but Cleveland has had success converting tackles into interior linemen in the past.

#35 NY Giants — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
Johnson has star potential and is being slept on.

#36 New England — Aireontae Ersery (T/G, Minnesota)
I think he’s too sluggish with his footwork to stick at left tackle but the options aren’t great if you want to improve at the position.

#37 Chicago (v/CAR) — Dylan Fairchild (G, Georgia)
The Bears continue to rebuild their offensive line.

#38 NY Jets — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
They need to add talent here and Taylor is really good.

#39 Las Vegas — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
A reliable target for Shedeur.

#40 Chicago — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
People keep saying he’ll go in the top-20 but I didn’t see that on tape.

#41 Jacksonville — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
The only thing he lacks is length. I love the intensity and motor he plays with.

#42 New Orleans — Xavier Restrepo (WR,Miami)
There’s just something about Restrepo which makes me think he’ll go earlier than people are projecting.

#43 San Francisco — Jake Majors (C, Texas)
The 49ers really need to do something to fix their offensive line. Majors is such an athletic, physical center. He’s had a great 2024 season.

#44 Dallas — Deone Walker (DT, Kentucky)
He has an unorthodox body shape and runs hot and cold but the Cowboys need someone who can create impact at defensive tackle.

#45 Arizona — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Players like Scourton — bigger defensive ends — always get mocked in round one. Then like AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham, they go in round two.

#46 Indianapolis — Benjamin Morrison (CB, Notre Dame)
If it wasn’t for the injury, he’d probably be a first round pick.

#47 Cincinnati — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
For me he’s more of a third rounder but the Bengals tend to draft defensive linemen I’m not crazy about.

#48 Atlanta — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
Ezeiruaku has been consistently good this season rushing the edge.

#49 Miami — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
Without the injury, he would go earlier.

#50 Seattle — Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
They gave Dre’Mont Jones every chance to succeed, which suggests they are keen on a player with his skill-set. Burch is highly athletic, incredibly so for his size, and could be a cost-effective replacement.

#51 Denver — DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
He’s a poor-man’s Alvin Kamara and Sean Payton knows how to use a player like this.

#52 Tampa Bay — Grey Zabel (T/G, North Dakota State)
I really enjoyed his tape and for me, he’s destined to be a success in the NFL.

#53 Houston — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
Athletic, aggressive lineman who can be tried at right tackle or guard.

#54 Carolina — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
Maybe the Panthers spend some money on their defense and focus on weapons in the draft?

#55 LA Chargers — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Harbaugh reunites with a player perfect for his system, as the Chargers gradually move away from Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

#56 Green Bay — Jared Ivey (DE, Ole Miss)
He showed what he can do against Georgia.

#57 Pittsburgh — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
Big, nasty and athletic. My kind of player. An AFC North kind of player. Don’t be surprised if he rises after the Senior Bowl and combine.

#58 Baltimore — Billy Bowman (S, Oklahoma)
Bowman plays like a Raven.

#59 Washington — Devin Neal (RB, Kansas)
I still think they’re looking for the guy at running back and Neal can be the guy.

#60 Philadelphia — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
He’s had an excellent season and finally delivered on his potential in college.

#61 Buffalo — Danny Stutsman (LB, Oklahoma)
A very consistent, hard-nosed linebacker who fits the Bills.

#62 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Shavon Revel (CB, East Carolina)
The third defensive back in this round who could’ve gone earlier but for injury.

#63 Detroit — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
Few players have improved their stock as much as Schwesinger this season.

#64 Kansas City — Xavier Scott (CB, Illinois)
He’s such a sparky playmaker. I really enjoyed watching him.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

In 13 of John Schneider’s 15 draft classes he took an offensive or defensive linemen with his first or second pick. In five of his drafts, the top two picks were both linemen. Despite the complaints over the years, Schneider has mostly stuck to the Ron Wolf mantra of drafting for the trenches. There’s just been some painful deviations and missed opportunities when they didn’t stick to it.

The point is, Schneider does like to draft for the lines. This draft class is ideally suited to match his preference, so the chances are this will be another draft where they focus on the O-line and D-line.

This is all the more critical given Seattle’s need to reinforce and improve the offensive line in particular.

As discussed in my off-season predictions video yesterday, I don’t think the Seahawks are motivated to make major roster changes. I think they’ll most likely set out to upgrade the areas they know they need to target.

We’ve talked about the offensive line all year. A lot of fans and media have discussed Jim Harbaugh’s approach with the Chargers. He took Joe Alt fifth overall because he wanted to make a statement about the kind of team he was building. He could’ve had Malik Nabers instead, arguably the most talented player in the class. Nope. Harbaugh wants the identity of his team to be the O-line.

It would be quite a thing if the Seahawks, having experienced the season they’ve just had, decided to wait on improving their line in favour of taking a player at a different position. Admittedly, sometimes a player falls to you and you’ve just got to pull the trigger. You also can’t force bad value. Joe Alt was expected to go in the top-10, so the Chargers weren’t reaching a year ago. The Seahawks can’t reach.

However, if they feel an O-line pick at #18 is a reach, they can always trade down. There are a clutch of guards (or tackle converts) I have graded in a similar range.

I do think they need to add at least one key veteran starter at guard or center and then add another with a high draft pick, though.

Tyler Booker has long felt like an obvious pairing. The Seahawks reportedly liked JC Latham last year, presumably to kick inside to guard. He was massive, like Booker. The Rams have turned to bigger linemen and I’d like to see the Seahawks do the same, especially if running the ball more effectively is a priority.

Booker’s tape is very good, with evidence of finishing plays, getting out on the move, handling blocks with aplomb and he’s played with a high level of consistency. I think he’s ideally placed, more so than any other lineman in this draft, to start quickly. The Seahawks have needed a classic plug-and-play left guard for ages. That’s Booker.

He also has a tremendous amount of football character and leadership — something the Seahawks have paid a lot of attention to in recent drafts.

With their second pick, I have them taking Jordan Burch from Oregon. He’s a fantastic athlete for a 6-6, 290lbs lineman. He has the physical potential to be an extremely good defender. I’d say maybe even the upside to be special, with the right coaching. I want the Seahawks to try and find special in these rounds again.

They seem to want this kind of player, thus why they’ve persisted with Dre’Mont Jones. If they cut Jones to save cap-space, Burch could be a good replacement.

It’s not a great draft class at the top-end but there’s value to be had in rounds 3-5, particularly at safety, linebacker, running back, receiver and tight end.