There are two people who, more than anyone else, inspired this blog. One is Mike Sando for his work on the TNT back in the day. The other is Tony Pauline.

His relentless passion for the draft, tape study and player evaluation struck a chord with me and it’s been a pleasure to interview him every year for the last decade. Tony has become a friend as well as someone I enjoy talking draft with. Here’s our latest conversation below. Please check it out — as Tony reveals what his sources are telling him about the Seahawks at #18…

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
Although this is now viewed as a lock, I don’t understand why. Ward is not a legit #1 overall pick, the Titans’ roster is still massively flawed and they keep drafting young quarterbacks. Why aren’t they drafting a blue-chipper instead or trading down?

#2 Cleveland — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
Will the Browns use Joe Flacco as their bridge and then make a move to reunite Hunter with Shedeur Sanders later in round one? That would generate some excitement in Cleveland.

#3 NY Giants — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
The Giants are the perfect example as to why drafting a franchise quarterback is difficult. However much you need one — even if you pick very early, it’s still hard to find them.

#4 New England — Will Campbell (T, LSU)
I wouldn’t like this move but it’s trending to be New England’s pick. Campbell didn’t play well in 2024 and the short arms bother me. I don’t think he’s an easy slot into guard either if he fails defending the edge.

#5 Jacksonville — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
I really like his tape but the lack of testing paired with an unorthodox body type could push the Jaguars to go in a different direction.

#6 Las Vegas — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Part of me still thinks there’s a very realistic chance the Raiders don’t take Jeanty here and go with Membou or Walker.

#7 NY Jets — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
When you’re one of the most explosive offensive linemen to enter the league in recent history and you run as well as he did, you go early in the draft.

#8 Carolina — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
Some people, such as Mike Mayock, have him rated higher than Abdul Carter.

#9 New Orleans — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
The injury to Derek Carr puts the Saints in a difficult spot. Do they go quarterback here or run the risk of waiting until later? I suppose it depends on their view of Spencer Rattler’s ability to start.

TRADE #10 Seattle (v/CHI) — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The Seahawks, armed with 10 picks, make their move. The idea is they want one of the few blue-chippers from this draft. This article recently looked at potential Bears trades so we’ll go with their suggestion — Seattle gives up #82, #137 and a 2026 fourth rounder.

#11 San Francisco — Kelvin Banks Jr (T, Texas)
Although defensive tackle is their biggest need, the 49ers face a future without Trent Williams and Colt McKivitz is replaceable. They invest in a tackle.

#12 Dallas — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
I’m not a big fan of McMillan but I was told by my main source two weeks ago that he’d be the first receiver taken so I’m sticking with it.

#13 Miami — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
With needs in the secondary, D-line and O-line, the Dolphins have a few options here.

#14 Indianapolis — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
If the Seahawks don’t move up for Warren, they might move up for Loveland. This feels like his floor and Mike Macdonald will have good intel on him.

#15 Atlanta — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
He’s just a clean prospect, unlike some of the other pass-rushers. He had major production in 2024, he ran a great short-shuttle, he has ideal length and A+ character.

#16 Arizona — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
This isn’t Arizona’s biggest need but they’ve just got to keep adding talent at this point.

#17 Cincinnati — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
The character allegations will put off some teams but the Bengals have tended to turn a blind eye to these things in the past.

#18 Chicago (v/SEA) — Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina)
The Bears move down eight spots and land a player they would’ve been comfortable taking at #10. He can be Ben Johnson’s plus version of David Montgomery.

#19 Tampa Bay — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
A brilliant player, a legit top-20 pick and someone the Seahawks could easily take if they stay at #18. Big on talent and character.

#20 Denver — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
Another player with major character positives while being talented and reliable. He could also be Seattle’s pick if they stick at #18.

#21 Pittsburgh — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
Some slight character issues have been reported but the chances are he’ll still go in the top-25. The Steelers opt not to take Shedeur Sanders.

#22 LA Chargers — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Williams has promised a lot and delivered very little over the last 12 months. An interesting player but will he ever put it together?

#23 Green Bay — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
The character concerns are legit but there’s a ‘love him or hate him’ vibe to Nolen and some people in the league definitely do love him.

TRADE #24 Cleveland (v/MIN) — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
Minnesota need picks so are willing traders. The Browns, fearing the Rams at #26, move up to reunite Shedeur with Travis Hunter.

#25 Houston — Josh Conerly (T, Oregon)
There’s a lot of love for Conerly. In this spot he wouldn’t be rushed in to start — but he’d still compete in year one.

#26 LA Rams — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
I’m a big fan of Barron’s but there’s a general feeling he might fall a bit. I’m not sure why but wanted to reflect it in this mock.

#27 Baltimore — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
He could go in the top-15 or fall out of round one altogether due to the labrum surgery.

#28 Detroit — Grey Zabel (G, North Dakota State)
I really like Zabel but there’s at least a feeling this might be his more realistic range compared to the top-20.

#29 Washington — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
The lack of production and lousy tape (at times) balances out the intriguing physical tools.

#30 Buffalo — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
It’s hard to work out where Grant could go but the Bills need someone to play one-technique.

#31 Kansas City — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
The Chiefs need a partner for Chris Jones to wreak havoc from the interior.

#32 Philadelphia — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
Even after drafting two DB’s a year ago, so much change at cornerback leads the Eagles to bring in the talented Hairston.

Round two

#33 Minnesota (v/CLE) — Benjamin Morrison (CB, Notre Dame)
It feels like his stock is rebounding so perhaps the injury concerns are easing?

#34 NY Giants — Jalen Milroe (QB, Alabama)
There has to be a reason why he was invited to the NFL draft.

#35 Tennessee — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
If Cam Ward is going to work in Tennessee he needs weapons.

#36 Jacksonville — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
I think there’s a chance Arroyo sneaks into round one. I also think the Seahawks will have an eye on him if the medicals are cleared.

#37 Las Vegas — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
The kind of plucky, dependable player who’d work well for Pete Carroll.

#38 New England — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
After getting a left tackle in round one, they further bolster their O-line here.

#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
They passed up the chance to get a tight end in round one, knowing they could get one of Arroyo or Taylor here.

#40 New Orleans — Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
I can well imagine the Saints seeing Burch as the heir-apparent to Cam Jordan.

#41 Chicago — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
The Bears chuck another pass-rusher into the mix.

#42 NY Jets — Will Howard (QB, Ohio State)
I know there’s a growing feeling Howard will go in round two and teams without an obvious future at quarterback should be willing to roll the dice on him.

#43 San Francisco — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
The 49ers badly need to add an interior defender.

#44 Dallas — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
Henderson lasts due to a lack of need so the Cowboys snap him up.

#45 Indianapolis — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
There’s a view the Colts want to invest in a tackle and Simmons is the best available — the reason he lasts is due to injury recovery and character.

#46 Atlanta — Shavon Revel (CB, East Carolina)
In interviews he’s very detailed when talking about scheme and he has a fire about him. Gritty backstory. If he lasts to #50 he could be someone Seattle goes for.

#47 Arizona — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
The Cardinals fill a hole in the interior of their line and get good value with Jackson here.

#48 Miami — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
It’s vital the Dolphins add an interior defender in the early rounds.

#49 Cincinnati — Jonah Savaiinaea (G, Arizona)
I’m not a big fan of Savaiinaea — he doesn’t finish or play with enough aggression. I know people who do like him, though.

#50 Seattle — Tate Ratledge (G, Georgia)
The Seahawks showed a lot of interest in Will Fries. Ratledge had identical explosive testing results, ran a great 10-yard split and a good three-cone. He could be seen as the value alternative to Fries.

#51 Denver — Joshua Farmer (DT, Florida State)
The Broncos tap into the D-line depth, knowing they can get a running back in round three.

#52 Seattle (v/PIT) — Jared Wilson (C, Georgia)
Klint Kubiak said his blocking scheme requires an elite center. Wilson’s testing profile is almost identical to Erik McCoy’s, the excellent center Kubiak worked with in New Orleans.

#53 Tampa Bay — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
The Buccs add a cornerback and a safety in the top two rounds to bolster their secondary.

#54 Green Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
He reminds me a lot of Jordy Nelson.

#55 LA Chargers — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
Higgins would be a good complement to the other targets on their roster.

#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Saivion Williams (WR, TCU)
He’s a bit of a gadget player but there’s every chance a creative offense will have a lot of fun with Williams.

#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
If you’re getting Swinson in this range I think it’s an absolute steal.

#58 Houston — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Teams are going to attack the defensive tackle options in round two.

#59 Baltimore — Aireontae Ersery (T, Minnesota)
This is the kind of lineman the Ravens take. They could play him inside early with a view to him becoming Ronnie Stanley’s long-term replacement.

#60 Detroit — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
I thought JTT had quite a disappointing final two seasons for Ohio State but his playing style fits the Lions.

#61 Washington — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
He’ll give you absolutely everything and he feels like a Dan Quinn player.

#62 Buffalo — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
I’m not sure about his upside and while he did produce turnovers — some were quite flukey.

#63 Kansas City — James Pearce Jr (EDGE, Tennessee)
The character concerns are legit. So much so I think many teams will not entertain having him in their building.

#64 Philadelphia — Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
This feels like a good fit for the Eagles given they’re trying to move off Dallas Goedert.

Thoughts on Seattle’s picks

I think there’s a very realistic chance the Seahawks will move up in this draft within the first three rounds. A year ago they tried to move up for Cooper Beebe, failed, and probably wish in hindsight they’d made a deal.

With five picks in the top-92 they can afford to be aggressive. Yes, it’s good to have a lot of picks and try to fill a number of holes. However, this is a draft lacking star power. The player they take at #18 could well be graded in a similar range to the players being taken between picks #30-40.

Sacrificing one of those five high picks in order to get a player some believe is a legit blue-chipper makes sense. Or, alternatively, they could trade up in round two to get a player they really want, rather than wait to see what remains at #50 and #52.

Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland are two of only seven players I’ve given ‘legit’ first round grades to. If they’re both available at pick #10 — the Seahawks might start sounding out teams to trade up. You’d be getting a player you might grade in the 6.7 range instead of the 6.3’s. That’s a rare opportunity, one you don’t typically have the ammunition to execute.

You’d need to get ahead of the Colts at #14. Chicago and Miami feel like possible trade candidates to do this.

The compensation here is #82, #137 and a 2026 fourth rounder to the Bears for pick #10. I used a Bears website, who pitched this move, as the basis for the deal. Frankly if it cost a third this year and next and maybe one of your fifth rounders instead of #137 — I think that’s a very reasonable offer too.

Trading up in round one is expensive and the price ultimately might be too high. That might be why a day two trade is more likely.

People will have a variety of opinions on this. Is tight end important enough to trade up for? Don’t you need to keep all of your picks? I just think any chance you get to grab one of the best players in a class, you have to consider it.

Had they stayed at #18 the players I would’ve considered for the pick would’ve been Malaki Starks and Emeka Egbuka.

For what it’s worth, if the Seahawks don’t trade up for Warren or Loveland, I could see them making a move in round two to go up and get one of Elijah Arroyo or Mason Taylor. Arroyo in particular feels like a great fit and, whisper it quietly, might be a wildcard option for them in round one. They could also move up for one of the appealing defensive tackles — perhaps Kenneth Grant who Mike Macdonald will know quite well — or an offensive lineman.

At #50, Tate Ratledge ticks a lot of boxes. I know he’s well liked within the league, with people buzzing about his playing style and demeanour. His physical testing was elite. The injuries stalled his 2024 season and keep him on the board. His similarity, physically, to Will Fries could be a hint to potential interest from the Seahawks.

With the #52 pick, Jared Wilson just fits. The remarkable physical comparison to Erik McCoy makes it very plausible he’ll be on Seattle’s radar. Remember — Klint Kubiak said the most important thing about his offensive line is an elite center.

These two selections, together with a fresh start for Christian Haynes, could help repair Seattle’s interior line.

If they don’t take two O-liners in round two, they’ll have options later. This is a class without many ‘pure’ guard prospects. However, there are a number of projected tackle converts with good zone-blocking tape. This includes Chase Lundt, Bryce Cabeldue, Charles Grant, Wyatt Milum, Jack Nelson, Logan Brown, Cam Williams and Marcus Mbow. They could also look at guards like Connor Colby and Clay Webb.

In this scenario, round three could be a defensive player (defensive back or defensive lineman) or a quarterback if any remain that they like.

They should be able to find a nose tackle on day three. There are also some day three receivers they can look at — with the pressure taken off somewhat if they take Warren or Loveland with their top pick, given they will effectively operate as the #1 or #2 target.

Many years ago we created a formula called ‘TEF’ to measure explosive traits in offensive linemen. It was based on stated ‘ideals’ by Tom Cable. The Seahawks wanted linemen who could jump a 31-inch vertical, a 9-0 broad and achieve 27 reps on the bench press. We combined each test to create a cumulative score to determine how explosive a prospect was.

Cable is long gone in Seattle and we no longer use it to try and work out who the Seahawks might have their eye on. However, as you’ll see below, the top offensive linemen in the NFL are predominantly explosive testers. TEF is still useful to project upside.

Here’s the formula:

1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF

Here’s what the ideal (31 — 9 — 27) would look like using this formula:

1. Vertical: 31 ÷ 31 = 1
2. Broad: 9 ÷ 9 = 1, cubed = 1
3. Bench: 27 ÷ 27 = 1
4. Overall score = 3.00

A prospect achieving the exact Cable ideal (31 — 9 — 27) will score a 3.00 in TEF.

In the early stages of using TEF it was incredibly accurate in determining who the Seahawks would have interest in. These days, with the outside-zone scheme set to be installed, they are more likely to focus on foot-speed and get-off. Good second-level tape and combo-blocking, a strong 10-yard split and a good short shuttle might be better indicators of interest than explosive testing. Still, that doesn’t mean they won’t be interested in explosive traits.

It is worth noting that New Orleans used their top pick (#14 overall) on Taliese Fuaga a year ago. He had an excellent zone-blocking grade and jumped a 32-inch vertical and a 9-3 broad. Without a bench press we can’t calculate a TEF score but with 33-inch arms it’s safe to assume he would’ve been an explosive tester. He did not do the short shuttle or the three-cone.

At the end of the article I’ll produce some takeaways based on the data.

TEF Results 2025

Armand Membou — 3.45
Luke Kandra — 3.42
Luke Newman — 3.26
Bryce Cabeldue — 3.25
Grey Zabel — 3.23
Nash Jones — 3.22
Jalen Travis — 3.21
Garrett Dellinger — 3.20
Donovan Jackson — 3.19
Tate Ratledge — 3.10
Logan Brown — 3.08
Jackson Slater — 3.07
Clay Webb — 3.05
Jared Wilson — 3.00
Eli Cox — 3.00
Miles Frazier — 3.00
Aireontae Ersery — 2.96
Caleb Rogers — 2.96
Josh Conerly Jr — 2.87
Jonah Savaiinaea — 2.84
Connor Colby — 2.83
Ben Scott — 2.83
Joe Huber — 2.81
Jake Majors — 2.67
Anthony Belton — 2.66
Torricelli Simpkins — 2.66
Drew Kendall — 2.64
Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan — 2.63
Charles Grant — 2.58
Joshua Gray — 2.56
Carson Vunson — 2.52
Willie Lampkin — 2.32
Tyler Booker — 2.31
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson — 2.05

There are 16 players who scored a 3.00 or higher in this class. This continues a trend of players being more explosive in recent years. Here are the numbers for each class since we started recording TEF:

2016 — 6
2017 — 3
2018 — 7
2019 — 8
2020 — 8
2021 — No combine
2022 — 9 (projection)
2023 — 19 (projection)
2024 — 22 (projection)
2025 — 16

Weighted TEF

We also created a second calculation to account for the fact that jumping a vertical at 320lbs is more challenging than jumping a vertical at 295lbs. Thus, we created a formula (weighted TEF or wTEF) to account for weight:

Weight x TEF x 0.1

We can give each player a score that sufficiently emphasises their unique size. For example:

Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1

Here are the scores this year:

Armand Membou — 114.5
Luke Kandra — 109.1
Jalen Travis — 108.8
Nash Jones — 103.0
Garrett Dellinger — 102.4
Luke Newman — 101.7
Grey Zabel — 100.8
Donovan Jackson — 100.5
Bryce Cabeldue — 99.5
Aireontae Ersery — 98.0
Logan Brown — 95.8
Tate Ratledge — 95.5
Jackson Slater — 95.5
Clay Webb — 95.2
Miles Frazier — 95.1
Jared Wilson — 93.0
Caleb Rogers — 92.4
Jonah Savaiinaea — 92.0
Eli Cox — 91.8
Anthony Belton — 89.4
Josh Conerly Jr — 89.3
Connor Colby — 87.4
Joe Huber — 87.1
Ben Scott — 86.6
Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan — 86.5
Torricelli Simpkins — 83.0
Jake Majors — 81.2
Drew Kendall — 80.8
Charles Grant — 79.7
Carson Vinson — 79.1
Joshua Gray — 76.5
Tyler Booker — 75.1
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson — 64.8
Willie Lampkin — 64.7

Incomplete data

The following players didn’t complete the full set of tests to create a TEF score. If they are one test away (eg didn’t do the bench press) I’ve taken the average of the draft class to create a projected TEF score:

Will Campbell — 3.07
Dylan Fairchild — 2.86
Wyatt Milum — 2.86
Jalen Rivers — 2.82
Kelvin Banks Jr — 2.81
Ozzy Trapilo — 2.73
Xavier Truss — 2.65
Chase Lundt — Not enough data
Marcus Mbow — Not enough data
Cam Williams — Not enough data
Jack Nelson — Not enough data
Emery Jones — Not enough data
Myles Hinton — Not enough data

Historical comparisons

As you can see below, most of the better linemen in the NFL were explosive testers. I’ve added the players who scored a 3.00 or higher within the 2025 class in bold:

Beaux Limmer — 3.68
Braden Smith — 3.52
Trey Smith — 3.49
Tristan Wirfs — 3.47
Armand Membou — 3.45
Lane Johnson — 3.44
Cole Strange — 3.42
Luke Kandra — 3.42
Rashawn Slater — 3.40
Peter Skoronski — 3.37
Bernhard Raimann — 3.37
Quinn Meinerz — 3.34
Cam Jurgens — 3.34
Zach Tom — 3.33
Drew Dalman — 3.31
Kolton Miller — 3.31
Frank Ragnow — 3.29
Luke Newman — 3.26
Creed Humphrey — 3.25
Cesar Ruiz — 3.25
Bryce Cabeldue — 3.25
Grey Zabel — 3.23
Nash Jones — 3.22
Jalen Travis — 3.21
Garrett Dellinger — 3.20
Donovan Jackson — 3.19
Chris Lindstrom — 3.18
Alijah Vera-Tucker — 3.16
Trent Williams — 3.11
Tate Ratledge — 3.10
Will Fries — 3.10
Logan Brown — 3.08
Quenton Nelson — 3.07
Jackson Slater — 3.07
Tyler Linderbaum — 3.05
Erik McCoy — 3.05
Clay Webb — 3.05
Penei Sewell — 3.04
Joe Thuney — 3.04
Joe Alt — 3.02
Elgton Jenkins — 3.01
Cody Mauch — 3.01
Garrett Bolles — 3.00
Jared Wilson — 3.00
Eli Cox — 3.00
Miles Frazier — 3.00

Ten yard splits

This data might be important to the Seahawks. The zone scheme relies on get-off and foot speed. Initial quickness over 10 yards can be seen is critical.

A word of caution though. Kyle Shanahan drafted Aaron Banks with the 48th pick to play in his zone-blocking offense. Matt LaFleur just paid him $19.25m to play in his. Banks’ 10-yard split was a 1.91 — slower than any of the names below:

Joshua Gray — 1.69
Josh Conerly Jr — 1.70
Jared Wilson — 1.71
Tate Ratledge — 1.72
Clay Webb — 1.72
Jonah Savaiinaea — 1.72
Bryce Cabeldue — 1.73
Garrett Dellinger — 1.73
Armand Membou — 1.74
Aireontae Ersery — 1.74
Will Campbell — 1.75
Eli Cox — 1.75
Logan Brown — 1.75
Chase Lundt — 1.76
Ozzy Trapilo — 1.76
Luke Newman — 1.76
Willie Lampkin — 1.76
Connor Colby — 1.77
Drew Kendall — 1.78
Jackson Slater — 1.78
Kelvin Banks Jr — 1.78
Luke Kandra — 1.78
Caleb Rogers — 1.78
Miles Frazier — 1.79
Jake Majors — 1.80
Charles Grant — 1.80
Carson Vinson — 1.80
Jalen Travis — 1.80
Joe Huber — 1.80
Branson Taylor — 1.82
Anthony Belton — 1.82
Xavier Truss — 1.82
Wyatt Milum — 1.83
Jalen Rivers — 1.85
Tyler Booker — 1.90

Notable 10-yard splits

Kolton Miller — 1.67
Lane Johnson — 1.68
Terron Armstead — 1.68
Chris Lindstrom — 1.69
Tristen Wirfs — 1.69
Joe Thuney — 1.70
Zach Tom — 1.70
Taylor Lewan — 1.71
Garrett Bolles — 1.71
Cam Jurgens — 1.71
Evan Mathis — 1.72
Trent Williams — 1.72
Eric Fisher — 1.72
Erik McCoy — 1.72
Jason Peters — 1.73
Charles Cross — 1.73
Joe Alt — 1.73
Anthony Bradford — 1.74

Short shuttles

The other test worth keeping an eye on is the short shuttle, due to it’s change of direction and ability to get up to speed quickly:

Caleb Rogers — 4.49
Drew Kendall — 4.51
Logan Brown — 4.51
Jared Wilson — 4.56
Connor Colby — 4.58
Eli Cox — 4.58
Luke Newman — 4.58
Bryce Cabeldue — 4.59
Grey Zabel — 4.60
Jake Majors — 4.62
Tyler Booker — 4.65
Joshua Gray — 4.65
Garrett Dellinger — 4.66
Kelvin Banks Jr — 4.66
Jonah Savaiinaea — 4.66
Marcus Mbow — 4.67
Wyatt Milum — 4.69
Anthony Belton — 4.69
Jackson Slater — 4.70
Ozzy Trapilo — 4.70
Willie Lampkin — 4.70
Hayden Conner — 4.72
Luke Kandra — 4.78
Joe Huber — 4.78
Aireontae Ersery — 4.82
Donovan Jackson — 4.84
Miles Frazier — 4.84
Carson Vinson — 4.85
Clay Webb — 4.90
Torricelli Simpkins — 4.90
Myles Hinton — 4.94
Jalen Travis — 4.94
Charles Grant — 4.95

Notable short shuttles

Jason Kelce — 4.14
Evan Mathis — 4.16
Nate Solder — 4.34
Nick Mangold — 4.36
Robert Gallery — 4.38
Abe Lucas — 4.40
Dominick Puni — 4.40
Eric Fisher — 4.44
Joel Bitonio — 4.44
Zach Tom — 4.47
Taylor Lewan — 4.49
Kolton Miller — 4.49

PFF zone blocking grades above 70

Charles Grant — 93.0
Willie Lampkin — 90.4
Wyatt Milum — 90.0
Chase Lundt — 88.2
Armand Membou — 87.4
Jack Nelson — 86.4
Logan Brown — 85.2
Clay Webb — 84.9
Grey Zabel —- 84.8
Cam Williams — 84.0
Kelvin Banks Jr — 81.5
Hollin Pierce — 81.5
Marcus Mbow — 81.3
Connor Colby — 81.3
Bryce Cabeldue — 81.0
Jacob Bayer — 79.8
Jared Wilson — 78.9
Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan — 77.4
Aireontae Ersery — 77.3
Dylan Fairchild — 76.6
Luke Kandra — 76.5
Will Campbell — 74.5
Josh Conerly Jr — 73.7
Donovan Jackson — 73.2
Joe Huber — 72.2
Drew Kendall — 71.8
Joshua Gray — 71.5
Garrett Dellinger — 71.4
Tate Ratledge — 71.4

Takeaways

— Will Fries, who they targeted in free agency, scored a 3.10 in TEF and a 95.8 in weighted TEF. He ran a 4.51 short-shuttle and a 1.81 10-yard split. His PFF grade for zone-blocking in 2024 was a 91.2 but that only occurred on 67 snaps before his broken leg. In 2023 his grade in zone was a 61.6 on 282 snaps. Tate Ratledge has the exact same TEF score and his weighted TEF (95.5) is very similar. Ratledge ran a far better split than Fries but didn’t run a short-shuttle. This is perhaps something to remember. I would say though, Fries’ tape in zone stood out like a sore thumb as an ideal fit for the scheme. Ratledge’s tape did not — whether that’s because of the role he played at Georgia or not.

— As one of the top explosive testers in recent history, there’s absolutely no doubt that Armand Membou will be taken very early. His combination of size, explosion and speed — not to mention an excellent zone-blocking grade — pretty much make him an ideal Seahawks pick. There’s zero chance he lasts to #18. If he lasted to #10, it might be worth considering trading up.

— Aireontae Ersery is massive (6-6, 331lbs) and on the borderline of a legit explosive tester (2.96 TEF) while running an excellent 1.74 10-yard split. Don’t be surprised if he finds a home in round one. He’s a pure tackle and has some reported small character concerns so likely won’t be on Seattle’s radar but he does have a decent zone-blocking grade.

— My top source on the draft recently told me Grey Zabel wouldn’t be a good use of a first round pick. His physical profile, however, matches those who were taken in the second half of round one. The question is — how much better do you think he is compared to, say, Bryce Cabeldue? If you don’t think there’s a massive difference you have to take that into account with your top-20 pick because you’re not finding another Malaki Starks on day three. Cabeldue has an almost identical TEF score and short shuttle time (coming out marginally on top in both). Unlike Zabel, he ran a forty and produced an excellent 1.73 split. They both grade in the 80’s for zone blocking. If this is about drafting to develop and kicking someone inside, someone other than Zabel at #18 and drafting Cabeldue later might be the better bet (and I say that as someone who really likes Zabel).

— Donovan Jackson’s explosive testing is enticing and speaks to a top-40 placing. A 4.84 short shuttle though is a frustrating counter point.

— Tyler Booker ran a 4.65 short-shuttle at his pro-day. His 10-yard split (1.90) is very similar to Aaron Banks’ (1.91). Are we totally sure he wouldn’t be a fit for Seattle’s scheme? The shuttle time adds an interesting layer to that conversation.

— Tate Ratledge has high marks for quickness and athleticism (4.97 forty, 1.72 split) and he’s also a legit explosive tester. Put this alongside his size and reputation as a strong locker room presence and it’s very easy to imagine him being a big favourite among scouts and coaches alike. He might’ve had a disjointed final year at Georgia due to injuries but his pre-draft testing process has been excellent.

— LSU’s Garrett Dellinger is one of the big surprises, managing a 3.20 TEF score and matching Kelvin Banks Jr’s short shuttle (4.66). His 10-yard split (1.73) is also intriguing. He doesn’t have a great zone-blocking grade but he has the characteristics to be a potential starter.

— Jared Wilson has an almost identical profile to Erik McCoy, who excelled for Klint Kubiak in New Orleans. He is definitely a player to keep an eye on if they want to use a pick on a center. Purely in terms of moulding a prospect for your system, he seems like the best fit. Wilson could quickly emerge as a top center in Kubiak’s scheme with this profile. The key is whether he can pick up the protection duties expected of him, which might be one of the reasons they’ve had him in for an official-30 visit.

— It’s a shame we don’t have any testing data for Chase Lundt because on tape, he looks like the ideal zone-blocking addition. There are a collection of players — Lundt, Connor Colby, Bryce Cabeldue, Clay Webb, Luke Kandra, Luke Newman, Logan Brown (and others) — who seem to fit the physical profile and grading of a good zone-blocker but will be later round picks. Are the Seahawks prepared to wait on the position? I doubt it — but it might be one high pick and one (or two) later on instead of a blitz of high O-line picks.

— If Kelvin Banks Jr isn’t an explosive tester, isn’t particularly quick and his short shuttle is in the ‘decent’ not ‘great’ category — does he have the kind of upside to be a great player? I’m not convinced.

It’s no surprise the Seahawks have an official-30 visit scheduled with LSU tight end Mason Taylor. Even with Noah Fant contracted for another year and with AJ Barner having a decent rookie season, it feels like this is a potential target position in the draft.

As John Boyle noted on Twitter this week, under Klint Kubiak the Saints ran 480 snaps in 12, 22 and 13 personnel last season. That’s compared to 202 snaps for the Seahawks under Ryan Grubb.

It’s not just a question of snaps. Anyone who’s tracked the game for any length of time will have noticed how important the tight end position is in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan offense. Although Fant is a former top-20 pick himself with a decent athletic profile, he feels very much like a draft hedge rather than a clear answer for this position.

So what might be the plan for the draft?

At #18 they’re likely to be on the outside looking in for the top two players — Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. There are Seahawks fans online that have allowed themselves to believe Loveland will last to #18 — in part because sections of the media have underestimated his standing.

Some teams have him graded higher than Warren. Both players are among the top handful of players in the draft. I’d fully expect both to be gone by the time the Colts pick at #14.

The second tier at the position includes two more players — Elijah Arroyo and Taylor. Both should go in the top-40 but would arguably be a reach at #18.

That creates a dilemma. Seattle is outside of the range to get any of the quartet.

So will they trade up from either #18 or #50?

I’m guessing the idea of moving up for a tight end won’t sit well with many given the positional value. Again though, in this offense the tight end may end up effectively being your first or second best weapon.

I think the latest Warren will last is pick #10 and Chicago. Loveland’s floor is likely the Colts at #14. Let’s say both players are on the board when the Bears are on the clock. They don’t own a fourth round pick and may be interested in acquiring extra stock.

Per the draft trade chart, pick #50 would get you from #18 to #10. To move above the Colts, you’d have to give up #82 and probably your 2026 third rounder to get to #13.

It’d be a steep price either way but there’s something else to consider other than the potential desire to add an elite tight end to the offense.

This is a draft class with very few ‘legit’ first round players. Warren and Loveland fit the bill. Let’s look at how both players are ranked according to some of the draft pundits online:

Daniel Jeremiah — Warren #5, Loveland #6

Mel Kiper — Warren #7, Loveland #11

Todd McShay — Warren #5, Loveland #8

Lance Zierlein — Warren #4, Loveland #5

In my revised rankings I think they’re the fifth and sixth best players in the draft.

Zierlein grades Warren as a 6.77 and Loveland and as 6.70. The next highest graded player is given a 6.50. According to his tape study, there is a significant drop in talent once they leave the board, along with Ashton Jeanty, Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter.

The Seahawks have not had an opportunity to draft a player with that level of grading in a long time. Here are their most recent first round picks and their grades according to Zierlein:

Charles Cross — 6.44
Devon Witherspoon — 6.47
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 6.43
Byron Murphy — 6.48

If they last to #10 it will not be down to talent. It’ll be down to perceived positional value and/or need.

This could be an opportunity to add a legit player to the roster that otherwise wouldn’t last until #18. You could make Warren or Loveland your immediate focal point in the passing game with Smith-Njigba.

One other thing to note is the trade chart isn’t always adhered to strictly. In 2023 the Steelers moved from #17 up to #14 and it only cost them a fourth rounder (#120). New England should’ve expected 150 points back from Pittsburgh in the deal, instead they only got 54.

Is it beyond the realms of possibility the Seahawks could use one of their two third round picks to move up the board and still keep their two second rounders? I wouldn’t rule it out.

The other possibility is that you trade up from #50 to try and get Arroyo or Taylor. I think Arroyo is an ideal fit in every way for this offense. He might go in the late first round. If he lasted to pick #35, you could use #92 and one of your two fifth round picks to move up from #50.

It’s just something to file away in the back of your minds. With five picks in the first two days the Seahawks can be aggressive if they want to be.

If you missed my latest Puck Sports show this week check it out below. Please give the video a like on YouTube if you can and leave a comment…

Please give the video a like on YouTube if you can and leave a comment…

Will Howard makes a big impression

Jon Gruden brought back the ‘Gruden QB Camp’ series this year. It’s longer, more detailed and comes with a harder edge this time. The first episode is with Will Howard. I dare anyone to watch it and not come away thoroughly impressed with the Ohio State quarterback.

You can check it out by clicking here.

Being on the show can be a stressful experience. Gruden barks out different plays, audibles, what he wants the quarterback to say and do in the huddle. There’s a ton of information thrown at Howard and yet he processes it all with ease.

Throughout the episode Gruden looks across the table at him like a proud father. There’s a glint in his eye. He clearly liked his ability to take on the information and he liked his cadence.

A couple of people in the NFL world have said to me they think Howard is the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft. His football IQ is said to be off the charts and you see that clearly evidenced in this episode.

I asked one person not known for dishing out praise to quarterbacks what he thought Howard’s range is. He initially said second round, then suggested he might even sneak into the late first. I was taken aback because this individual is usually hard to please.

If this is what he’s displaying to teams it won’t be a surprise frankly. Howard doesn’t have the physical upside to project he’ll be an athletic marvel at the next level. He’s pretty good across the board though — as a passer, a runner and getting the ball out quickly under pressure.

He can be a very capable point guard. Not necessarily someone who you put the game on his back and ask him to out-gun Patrick Mahomes on the road but certainly someone who can lead an offense, manage a game and make enough plays to sustain drives and put points on the board.

Look at what he did in the playoffs. His QBR over the four games was 96.4. That’s virtually perfect. Ohio State were 50% on third down conversions. When the pressure was at its highest, he delivered in a big way.

A lot of young quarterbacks simply cannot process the way Howard does in that Gruden video. They drown in the jargon and complexity of it all. Howard looks like he’s learned the NFL language already and can pick things up pretty quickly.

This is half the battle. It’s why young quarterbacks fail. They go into their first camp and can’t process the information or execute. The entire rest of the roster then looks at them with a feeling of ‘this guy doesn’t know what he’s doing’. Imagine knowing the whole team thinks that, you go in the next day, and you’re no better. So many young quarterbacks look great in college with their half-field reads and easy play-calls with everything set up for them to execute. What you see in the Gruden video is life in the NFL — and it’s so frickin different to college. It takes no effort to imagine why so many young quarterbacks find their careers are over before they even begin.

Howard might not have the physical tools to ‘wow’ anyone but if you draft him, he’s walking into camp with a grasp of what’s going on. He will engineer immediate buy-in and respect. His pathway to competency and comfort within the league will be far shorter. This matters.

One other thing to note. A few weeks ago I wrote a piece detailing the quarterbacks in this draft class with a 2024 QBR over 80:

Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8

Here’s a list of all the players between 2021-2024 with a QBR above 80 and where they were drafted:

Jayden Daniels — First round
Bo Nix — First round
JJ McCarthy — First round
Michael Penix Jr — First round
Caleb Williams — First round
Kenny Pickett — First round
CJ Stroud — First round
Bryce Young — First round
Mac Jones — First round
Justin Fields — First round
Zach Wilson — First round
Trevor Lawrence — First round
Kyle Trask — Second round
Hendon Hooker — Third round (injury)
Matt Corral — Third round (character flags)
Ian Book — Fourth round (physical limitations)

We know Cam Ward is going in the first round and there’s a reasonable chance Jaxson Dart will too. Kurtis Rourke won’t be a high pick but his stock will be heavily impacted by his knee surgery. Dillon Gabriel may be a mid-round pick due to his size.

Then you’ve got Howard and Jalen Milroe.

It’s been revealed Milroe has been invited to the draft in Green Bay, leading to speculation that he might go earlier than expected. Well, if the list above is anything to go by, the fact he has a QBR over 80 makes it quite likely he’ll be a high pick — whether he succeeds at the next level or not.

Howard will go earlier than people expect too. There is a definite trend here with the +80 QBR ratings. Put that with his playoff performance, football intelligence and pro-readiness and he is destined to be a higher pick that most realise.

Ty Robinson, Jared Wilson & Jalen Milroe are visiting the Seahawks

According to Tony Pauline, the Nebraska lineman will make the trip to Seattle.

Tony cites league sources who believe he can be a more athletic version of Cam Heyward. I can see it. Robinson lacks Heyward’s length but they have a very similar playing style and demeanour. The projection is a potential late second round range.

He also has the kind of personality the Seahawks love. If you missed my interview with him, check it out here.

I think he could be very much on Seattle’s radar to add to their defensive line rotation. He’d be an excellent pick in the mould of the old-school AFC North teams.

Wilson is an almost identical prospect to Erik McCoy, who excelled at center under Klint Kubiak in New Orleans. He is definitely a name to keep an eye on for day two.

Meanwhile, Milroe is also making an official-30 visit to the Seahawks. He’s the second confirmed quarterback visit after Tyler Shough. It speaks to the team doing as much due diligence as possible on this class. Drafting a quarterback at some stage is a possibility.

Milroe as a passer and a processor is an absolute mile off where he needs to be. As an athlete and a runner though he’s dynamic. I’m not sure you can develop the passing side of his game to a good enough level. However, Mike Macdonald has seen first-hand what a quality running quarterback can do. Milroe also has excellent character. He’s just such a frustratingly limited passer.

Here are all of Seattle’s publicly confirmed official visits so far:

Nick Emmanwori
Tyler Shough
Savion Williams
Bryce Cabeldue
Chase Lundt
Shavon Revel Jr
Mason Taylor
Mykel Williams
Ty Robinson
Jalen Milroe
Jared Wilson

Will the Seahawks trade up in round two?

It’s something we’ve discussed a fair bit over the last couple of weeks. I looked at an idea where they traded up for an offensive lineman. Chad Reuter posted a mock draft where the Seahawks moved up for a quarterback.

Could it be for a tight end potentially?

Tom Pelissero reports that they’re having LSU’s Mason Taylor in for an official visit. He and Elijah Arroyo are both in a tier that should see them taken anywhere between 25-45. Seattle’s new offense will only be at its absolute best with a dynamic pass-catching tight end on the roster.

Arroyo, for me, is the best fit assuming Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren don’t last to #18. If Arroyo goes earlier than expected (I don’t think the late first is out of the question) that could leave Taylor as their best bet to get an ideal tight end fit this off-season.

Noah Fant is effectively acting as a draft hedge at the moment but there’s nothing locking him on to the roster.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Seahawks are eyeing up their options at the top of the second round. Look at it this way. If they have players projected to go in the top-38 who are graded far higher than the players at #50, plus they think pick #92 comes after a significant shelf in talent, why wouldn’t they consider giving up that late third-rounder to move up?

Thanks to ‘Golden Hawk’ on Twitter for reminding me of this quote from John Schneider recently:

“Initially, you’re like, ‘Yeah, we’re going to take five really good players. But then you get in a situation where it’s like, ‘All right, that guy’s a starter, we should probably move to go get him.”

They might have a few targets in mind, including possibly Taylor.

More praise for Emeka Egbuka

Another day, another person lavishing praise on the Ohio State receiver. This time it’s Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt:

 
Firstly, it’s another pundit grading/ranking him as a top-20 talent in this class. It’s further evidence that he won’t be a reach if the Seahawks take him at #18.

Secondly, it’s another total validation of the argument I’ve been making about his fit in Seattle. What Klatt describes in that video is the kind of person the Seahawks want to draft. They have a Tyler Lockett sized hole on the roster — another player they felt led the way as an ideal Seahawk. Egbuka coming in and providing that same level of consistency, maturity and presence would be a big thing.

He’s not the only one who can do it. I know Malaki Starks has a similar reputation. So does Tyler Booker. Matthew Golden is well liked at Texas, as is Donovan Ezeiruaku at Boston College. These are the kind of prospects they are typically drawn to. Unless players like Colston Loveland or Jahdae Barron unexpectedly fall, it could be that they pick from the names I just listed.

Nick Emmanwori an unlikely option?

Bob McGinn’s scouting sources are regularly mocked on Twitter but as someone who has tracked his series for years, I have to say more often than not you learn a lot from what his articles say. They’re also pretty good at projecting range.

Here’s what his sources said about South Carolina safety Emmanwori:

“There’s some inconsistency and possible character issues. More like football immaturity.”

“He’s naturally contrarian to most everything. He’s got top-20 talent but there’s some bells and whistles that come with him. Just be sure you know. He can probably fray some things. You’ve got to have somebody to deal with the personality. They say this guy is so strong-willed, if you get him onto your side he’ll save the world. If he is opposed to your views he’ll burn the world down.”

This is probably why they had him in for an official-30 visit. They’re doing further background checks on Emmanwori the person, trying to learn more about him.

I’m not convinced they’re going to draft him given that second quote above. They just moved on from two headaches this off-season, do they want to dive head-first into another? Especially when there are players in this draft with similar or better grades who will provide A+ character. I can’t see it.