This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
Where do the Seahawks go from here?
A demoralizing loss to the Rams that left Geno Smith banged up, the defense in fits over a gaggle of penalties, fans questioning Shane Waldron’s intelligence and Pete Carroll’s leadership is really dragging the optimism for Thursday’s game against the Niners down hard.
Is there anything we can cling to, to maybe get a spark?
There is.
In Pete Carroll’s tenure, the Seahawks have lost to the Rams 16 times. What is their record in the following game? 11-3. 12-3 if you count the Rams beating them in the 2020 playoffs and the Seahawks beating Indianapolis in Week One the next year.
The three losses? Two of them came in 2021, when they took the Steelers to OT in Geno Smith’s first start and then lost to the Bears by one point on a two-point conversion with a minute to play. Both of those games get a doink the other way and they are a gaudy 14-1 after a Rams loss.
Is that grasping at straws? You better believe it is.
And yet, this is the upside of consistently having a 9-7, 10-6 or 9-8 team in Seattle: They have a few clunkers each year but they also do pull out some wins that are not expected.
The team will need a far better effort than Sunday though. Coming to Lumen are the loaded-for-bear San Francisco 49ers. They used their bye week to great effect, snapping themselves out of a 3-game losing streak by demolishing the Jacksonville Jaguars and beating the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. They have quickly reclaimed their place as one of the best teams in the NFC and the presumptive favorite to win the NFC West.
The Rams offered Matthew Stafford and his 54% completion rate and 70 QB rating. The Niners have Brock Purdy coming off an 84% completion rate and a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
The Rams had banged-up Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Niners have a red-hot Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
The Rams rolled out Byron Young and had Aaron Donald running more stunts than I had seen in a long time. The Niners have Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave and now Chase Young.
I think you get the idea.
Absent the Niners tripping over their own cleats, the Seahawks have a mountain of things to clean up to make this game a competitive one. And that is where we must start.
Play Solid, Fundamental Football
This watch point is going to feel like a simple list of sins the Seahawks committed on Sunday. If any of these things creep into the game against San Francisco, it will be a very hard struggle to establish any momentum to meet this matchup.
They simply cannot give the Niners 130 yards in penalties and expect to be competitive, no matter what kind of day the referees are having.
The offense cannot blunt a nice drive with a key penalty in Field Goal range that backs them up and forces them to settle for a try instead of pushing into the red zone and scoring touchdowns.
They must have a more balanced offense. Abandoning the ground game in favor of the pass will give the Niner defense all the opportunities they need to make this game easy for them.
On that point, want to see something crazy? Tampa Bay ran out almost the exact same game mix in their loss last week against San Francisco that the Seahawks did against the Rams. Witness:
Seattle Running Game: 21 rushes for 68 yards. Tampa? 18 for 66.
Seattle Passing: 24 of 40 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Tampa? 29 for 45, 246 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
You see the problem. San Francisco won by 13 points and it was not worse due to a good defensive effort by the Bucs. A Seattle output like that against San Francisco will not provide the desired result.
To be fair, Tampa’s mix was more by design. Years of catering to Tom Brady has left them with a bare cupboard in the running back department and their only option was to put the game in Baker Mayfield’s hands.
The Seahawks? Their limitation came from the coaching staff being unwilling or unable to do something so blindingly easy as run the ball and eat the clock with a lead in the second half.
Speaking of that, all three of San Francisco’s losses this season? They lost the time of possession battle. Keep that offense off the field, fellas.
On defense, the pass rush must step up. They have the talent to get pressure without any blitzing packages or special tricks. Devon Witherspoon, Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner coming screaming through the gaps for pressure is fun. However, those plays should be the topping on the dessert of making Brock Purdy uncomfortable with their regular linemen.
They also absolutely must tighten up defensive fundamentals like coverage. The Rams schemed Darrell Henderson wide open on a wheel route last week, but Stafford could not make the completion. Julian Love was the closest defender to him but was a mile out of position.
Tackling as well. I do not know how many times I can keep saying this. The Seahawks are shooting themselves in the foot by not tackling well. Quandre Diggs was the latest to just come steaming in on Sunday, trying to knock a player off his feet with a hit instead of making a sound wrap up tackle. It did not work.
Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey force you to bring them down. A mauling of the Giants in Week Three featured these three racking up seven broken tackles. They challenged the Giants defense to take them down and they couldn’t.
Can the Seahawks? We will see.
Limit Turnovers and Take the Ball Away from Them
We have talked about this before with San Francisco.
Their rankings this year are formidable. They are the #3 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense. They are in the top-10 in all yardage categories except passing yards allowed per game (#15).
A consistent challenge for them in the recent past has been turnovers.
Their three-game losing streak this year featured seven critical turnovers by the San Francisco offense.
What were the circumstances around those turnovers? The opposition got out to an early start and put pressure on San Francisco to keep up, while eating the clock. The Niners got increasingly desperate as the game went on, and the turnovers mounted. Of those seven turnovers, six of them came in the second half.
The one in the first half? It was a brilliant play by the Vikings. On their first drive by Minnesota, Charvarius Ward intercepted Kirk Cousins (really, he just ripped the ball out of the receiver’s hands). Three good plays later, it looked like the Niners were about to take the lead, and the Vikings stripped Christian McCaffrey. They recovered and then drove the length of the field for a touchdown. The Vikings never trailed in the game.
Again, we are rightly frustrated with the Seahawk offense’s second half performance. But we need them to come out of the gate with purpose like they did against the Rams and put their stamp on the game. Otherwise, Kyle Shanahan has his entire playbook to work with and that is no good for anyone.
Geno Smith must also be sharp and smart with the football. Offensive miscommunications, desperate throws and strange decisions cannot be regular occurrences in this game.
It should be noted – in their last two games, the Niners have not turned the ball over once, while forcing six against Jacksonville and Tampa, including four that led to the blowout of the Jaguars. Turnovers cut both ways, people.
Primarily, the defense must create a turnover or two at a minimum and they cannot miss the chance when it is presented to them.
Limit the Number of Explosive Runs by the Niners (especially McCaffrey)
There is another common denominator to San Francisco’s three losses this year: They were their three worst rushing performances as a team. That is no coincidence.
In those three games, they had six explosive runs and ended up with 286 total yards, averaging 95 rushing yards per game.
Last year, the Seahawks also played San Francisco in three games. How many explosive runs did they concede?
Twelve. Double what those winning teams conceded.
Twelve runs of 10 yards or more. And those included three ‘super explosive runs’ of 50 yards or more, one in each game.
The Seahawks conceded 540 yards rushing to San Francisco for an awful average of 180 yards per game.
The frustrating part is, take those explosives out and the Niners gained 226 attempts on 100 attempts, or 2.26 yards per rush. Put another way, the Seahawks ‘won’ the majority of rush attempts but had catastrophic failures on the other ones.
It is incredibly easy (and silly) to say ‘the Seahawks just have to stop all the explosives and they are good.’ The game just doesn’t work that way.
However, it is reasonable to expect the Seahawks to allow no more ‘super explosive’ runs of 50 yards or more. Take those three out of the equation from last year and their per rush average (even with the other nine explosives) is 3.36 yards per carry.
Can the Seahawks manage that? Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati could.
Currently, Cleveland (4.1 YPA) is right there in yards per rush attempt conceded with the Seahawks (4.1), Cincinnati (5.0) is much worse and Minnesota (3.7) is better.
Every time we have a game against a top opponent, I often cast my mind to significant investments the Seahawks have made. The latest one of course is Leonard Williams. This game is where he needs to prove that the very high price the Seahawks paid was worth it. Williams, Jarran Reed, Mario Edwards and Dre Jones must have effective games to keep this rushing attack from controlling the game.
How important is it? Think of all the weapons the Niners have on offense that can do damage to the Seahawks. Names like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel.
Christian McCaffrey has more touches than all three of those players combined.
In San Francisco’s three losses this year, McCaffrey only averaged 47 yards on the ground.
Seattle’s Wild Card loss last year? McCaffrey had 15 carries for 119 yards. Take out just that one explosive run of 68 yards and what did he get?
51 yards.
It is doable. They can do it.