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How important is a good zone blocking grade in this offense?

The Seahawks have a clear offensive line plan under Klint Kubiak and John Benton. We know they’re going to run outside zone and adding players who fit the scheme will be important.

We’ve identified the prospects in the draft who graded best in zone in 2024. We also know the Saints, with Kubiak running the offense, drafted Taliese Fuaga in round one last year. He had a 91.3 grade. They also used a late round pick on Josiah Ezirim who had an 86.5 grade.

I wanted to look at the grades for the players drafted by San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan, given there is more data. It’s a mixed bag:

2024 — Dominick Puni (R3) — 68.9
2024 — Jarrett Kingston (R6) — 67.0

2022 — Spencer Burford (R4) — 79.8
2022 — Nick Zakelj (R6) — 77.3

2021 — Aaron Banks (R2) — 87.2
2021 — Jaylon Moore (R5) — 80.4

2020 — Colton McKivitz (R5) — 69.8

2019 — Justin Skule (R6) — 69.3

2018 — Mike McGlinchey (R1) — 90.0

The players drafted in the first two rounds (McGlinchey and Banks) both had very high grades. That could be important. Yet the two players drafted a year ago (Puni and Kingston) both had average zone blocking grades.

All in all, five players graded above 70, four didn’t.

I’m torn on this. On the one hand, the most physically aggressive player in the draft with the best pure guard tape since Quenton Nelson had a 65.5 grade in zone last year. Tyler Booker would be a terrific pick for the Seahawks but the grade doesn’t automatically make him a fit. I think he can play in zone but his tape is not as naturally suited to it as Grey Zabel for example.

However, as we all wait for the Seahawks to build a good offensive line for the first time in years, it would be difficult to pass on Booker — who might be long gone by #18 anyway — to only see him excel somewhere else.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks might be awkwardly positioned to take Zabel. After further tape study since the weekend, I believe he is a far better scheme fit than Kelvin Banks Jr. There might not be a better zone blocker in the class. But he is worth #18? That’s what I discussed in my video yesterday.

This is why I think it would be best for the Seahawks to solve their O-line issues in the veteran market, freeing them up to go best player available in round one. Depending on how he tests this week, that could still be Zabel. If it isn’t though, they won’t feel any pressure to force anything.

That will take some creativity though. Drew Dalman is an excellent option at center. At left guard, there are no obvious solutions in free agency. It’s why I’ve been trying to think of creative ideas. The one I keep coming back to is seeing if the Chiefs would have interest in trading Joe Thuney for Riq Woolen. Kansas City are never afraid to take on a highly athletic project and they need a cornerback. I don’t get the sense Woolen is a player Mike Macdonald particularly trusts and he might not exactly be a priority to extend on a big contract.

A deal like this, involving two players entering a contract year, might benefit both parties. The Chiefs save $16m, which could go towards trying to keep Trey Smith and/or Nick Bolton. The Seahawks get a proven left guard who graded a 79.1 in zone last season. His cap-hit would be $15.5m but that could be reduced slightly with a modest extension, similar to the Gabe Jackson deal. Losing Woolen would test Seattle’s cornerback depth but Macdonald has a track record of producing value performances at the position. Brandon Stephens, who excelled under Macdonald and struggled without him in Baltimore, is available and could be a cheap prove-it option.

I don’t think it’s likely. Thuney is beloved in Kansas City and the Chiefs can easily create cap-space using Patrick Mahomes’ contract. He might not be overly keen about moving to Seattle, given he’s spent the last few years competing for Super Bowls. You might have to make it worth his while.

I would like the Seahawks to think outside of the box though to try and address their O-line need. They’ve avoided first and second round busts in recent years with a ‘best player available’ approach. It would be best to try and retain that if they can — but that means fixing the line before the draft.

Finally, there’s some interesting news here on Quinn Ewers in the second half of this video…

Tom Pelissero reports that Ewers is working with none other than former Cowboys Head Coach Mike McCarthy, a close friend of John Schneider. It doesn’t mean the Seahawks are going to draft him of course — but they’ll certainly be getting plenty of intel from McCarthy.

Pelissero also says Ewers played most of the 2024 season with a torn oblique. This isn’t a surprise. You could very clearly see a noticeable difference in Ewers’ mobility after the Michigan game. His play fell apart, not a shock given the injury was to his abdomen.

A reminder, in the three games before he suffered the injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when he was healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7.

In the three games after returning from injury, where he rushed back to face Oklahoma and Georgia, before going to Vanderbilt, his QBR dropped dramatically to a 55.4.

This has to be taken into account when judging his performance in 2024. Admittedly it doesn’t excuse his injury history, which will be a concern. That said, I still believe some teams will see an opportunity to select Ewers in a value range, with no serious commitment to him becoming a starter, and feel like his selection is a shot to nothing.

Don’t be surprised if Schneider checks in with McCarthy for his thoughts on Ewers and considers taking him in this draft.

The ultimate Seahawks combine preview 2025

Introduction

The 2025 draft class is light on blue-chip players but filled with day-two depth. Potential future starters will be available in round four. In particular there are strong numbers at running back, tight end, defensive line, interior O-line and as always seems to be the case these days, receiver.

The drafts that capture the imagination typically include big-name quarterbacks going very early. This year, we might see forced picks at the position in round one but no quarterback deserves a grade in that range. I do think there will be a middle class of signal callers this year though, meaning we won’t see six taken in the top-12 like like last year followed by a wait until round five for the next quarterback to leave the board.

A good year at offensive tackle a year ago has been replaced by an incredibly light class in 2025. Many of the big-name tackles have short arms and will be projected to move inside. The most natural left tackle in the draft, Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, is still recovering from a knee injury.

Possible storylines

Many people have talked up the high number of draftable defensive linemen this year. That’s absolutely true but is the top-end value there? Once you get away from Abdul Carter and Mason Graham, there’s a lot of players you’d feel more comfortable taking on day two than day one. Therefore, can some players test at such an impressive level to justify legit first round buzz?

For example, we’ve seen so little of Mykel Williams on tape. He needs a great combine and/or pro-day to validate the lofty projections being made for him. Kenneth Grant’s tape is quite underwhelming overall yet he’s expected to have an incredible testing session. Can he deliver? How high is the upside for Walter Nolen? On tape, Tyleik Williams and Bradyn Swinson are very impressive. How well do they perform?

There are a lot of other players you could mention here but without a doubt, the performance of the defensive linemen will likely be the big talking point.

How different will things be in 2025?

A year ago Mike Macdonald had only just accepted the job and didn’t attend the combine for obvious reasons. He was present at both the Shrine and Senior Bowl this year and he’s doing a press conference in Indianapolis this week, so he’ll be present and involved. Macdonald looks to have the bit between his teeth, eager to help add the players this off-season to try and shift the Seahawks out of a middling slumber on the fringes of playoff contention.

In terms of the combine itself, no significant changes have been announced.

The combine is still badly scheduled

It was completely nonsensical to try and turn the combine into a primetime spectator event for casual fans. It was traditionally created for medical checks and expanded to something even more useful with meetings, testing and the opportunity to get everyone in the NFL together for a head-start on free agency preparations.

Yes, the forty-yard dash times can be entertaining. To most people though, watching the never-ending cornerback drills where several coaches are over-indulged so that they all get to run their own variation of what amounts to the same drill, is a tedious experience. Puffing things up with ridiculous corny set-pieces on the sideline while the commentators chit-chat, make pop-culture references and spend more time joking about player-names than actually analysing the drills (bring back Mayock) isn’t helping.

The combine should be for the teams, first and foremost. Secondly, it should be for the draft geeks. There’s not enough here for the casual fan. The players involved are now testing until late at night, meaning most don’t bother with important agility testing in the short-shuttle and three-cone. How on earth has the NFL manufactured a situation where we don’t get those results any more — and yet nobody seems bothered?

You would think if nothing else they might get the agility tests out of the way first, or after the forty-yard dash. An increasing number of players opt to wait until pro-day or not bother at all. Only six linebackers ran a short shuttle in 2023 — a critical test for the position. Last year, only five linebackers ran a shuttle. What are we doing here? The phrase ‘couldn’t run a piss-up in a brewery’ springs to mind. Everything should be done to ensure players have the perfect platform to do all of the tests.

The NFL did bring things forward by an hour two years ago. They could bring it forward another hour or two further still. This should be an event to produce the most data possible for teams looking to make educated decisions in the draft. It shouldn’t be an event catered for casual football fans to have on in the background.

No, teams meeting with players doesn’t matter

Every year beat writers go to the combine and spend most of their time going to various player press conferences asking whether they met with the team they cover. Not only does it ruin every session, it means absolutely nothing.

Don’t fall into the trap of caring if players met with the Seahawks. If you are a beat writer who happens to be reading this, please resist the temptation to ask players who they met with. It’s a waste of time and just leads to people reading into things too much.

Workout schedule

» Thursday 27th February (3pm ET): defensive linemen and linebackers
» Friday 28th February (3pm ET): defensive backs, tight ends
» Saturday 1st March (1pm ET): running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers
» Sunday 2nd March (1pm ET): offensive linemen

Player schedule

Each players goes through a six-day process. The initial two groups arrive in Indianapolis on day one. Day two, they register, conduct a pre-exam, go through orientation and undertake team interviews. Day three includes a general medical exam and further team interviews. On day four, players speak to the media, have a NFLPA meeting and an ortho exam, then speak to more teams. Day five includes the on-field drills and measurements. The final day involves the bench press and then departure. For some reason the schedules are a bit more jumbled up this year for the weekend participants who arrive later.

Horizontal board

Here is my latest updated board going into the combine. This is how I grade the players I’ve studied in this draft.

Click the image to enlarge:

Defensive tackle, defensive end & linebackers

Arrival: Sunday 23rd February
Team interviews: Monday 24th February
General medical exam: Tuesday 25th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Wednesday 26th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Thursday 27th February
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Friday 28th February

Defensive tackle

The Byron Murphy pick a year ago was a unique opportunity. In the Pete Carroll era, the Seahawks didn’t draft any explosive defensive tackles. The average vertical jump among the players selected was only 27 inches. Murphy jumped a 33 inch vertical, added a 9-3 broad and ran an electric 4.87 forty with a 1.69 10-yard split at 297lbs. He put on a show at the combine.

Interestingly the Seahawks took Murphy despite his lack of length (32 3/8 inch arms). Under Carroll, seven of the nine defensive tackles they drafted had +33 inch arms. The two who didn’t have good length were both late round picks. As we’ll note a few times in this preview, the Seahawks have shifted off certain ideals in recent years and have been quite flexible about the body types they draft.

Length wasn’t a big priority for the Ravens, Mike Macdonald’s former team. In his final year in Baltimore they even had a nose tackle with 31.5 inch arms. You always want good length on either side of the line but it doesn’t appear to be a deal-breaker for the current regime in Seattle.

For key data on pass-rush win-percentage, pressures and run-stop responsibility, check out my detailed breakdown on the defensive tackle draft and free agency class by clicking here.

Key tests
Short Shuttle, Vertical, 10-yard split

Ideal size
+6-2, 300-310lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.50-4.65 ss

Positional assessment
It is a deep class. I currently have 24 players with a draftable grade. That number increases if you include the likes of Darius Alexander as a pure defensive tackle rather than a player who can play across the line. I want to see special qualities though. I’ve only got Michigan’s Mason Graham as a legit round one talent. He will only do the bench press at the combine. Can a few players among this large group stand out and make it clear they have so much physical upside, they too deserve a legit first round placing? Players I really like and look forward to seeing test include Tyleik Williams, TJ Sanders, Ty Robinson, Rylie Mills (if healthy) and Joshua Farmer.

Interesting note
Byron Murphy was the first really high pick at defensive tackle by John Schneider, following on from their first high pick at cornerback the previous year (Devon Witherspoon). Prior to that, Jarran Reed (#46, 2016) was their highest selection at DT. Previously they’d preferred to target the position in the mid-to-late rounds. After investing so much in Murphy and Leonard Williams it’ll be interesting to see if they further add to this group in the first three rounds or whether they revert back to seeking value later on.

Best drills to watch
I like to watch the swim/rip drills for defensive tackles. I also like to watch how they get in-and-out of the bags with their footwork and how they punch and move. Who plays with violence, even in this setting? A year ago Braden Fiske excelled with his movement skills, aggression and pure speed. It’s no surprise it all translated into an excellent rookie season. It just looked obvious that he would succeed, based on his combine display.

Five names to watch
Walter Nolen, Tyleik Williams, Kenneth Grant, Joshua Farmer, JJ Pegues

Potential standout
According to Bruce Feldman, Kenneth Grant has been clocked running 18.75mph at 350lbs. He’s not expected to be an explosive tester but he could shine with his quickness at his size. Meanwhile Tyleik Williams is being touted to run in the 4.8’s which would be exceptional given his frame and could really elevate his stock. JJ Pegues and Joshua Farmer are also promising to shine. Yet most eyes will be on Grant’s display.

Importance to the Seahawks?
After investing so much in Williams and Murphy, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks will spend the #18 pick on another defensive tackle. It’s also a rotational position so unless you were adding a true game-changer, I think it’s unlikely we’ll see another first rounder used here. It is a need though, given Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins are both ageing and free agents. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them tap into a deep group at some point in the draft.

DE’s, inside/out rushers or 5-techniques

Under Schneider the Seahawks have sought difference-making athletes at this position, with the most obvious example being Malik McDowell — who they took with their top selection in 2017. At 6-6 and 295lbs he had outstanding length (35-inch arms), agility (4.53 short shuttle) and great speed for his size (4.85 forty plus a 1.69 10-yard split). His explosive testing, however, was relatively poor (28.5-inch vertical) — perhaps further highlighting that explosive traits haven’t been that important to the Seahawks for defensive linemen.

A year later they took Rasheem Green. At 6-4 and 275lbs he also had good length (34-inch arms), great agility (4.39 short shuttle) plus a strong performance in the sprints (4.73 forty, 1.65 10-yard split). Before drafting McDowell or Green, they selected Quinton Jefferson in 2016. At 291lbs he ran a 4.37 short shuttle plus a 4.95 forty with a 1.69 10-yard split.

They used a first round pick on L.J. Collier in round one in 2019. He ran a mediocre 4.91 forty and a 4.78 short shuttle. Collier was explosive (30 inch vertical, 9-10 broad jump) and impressed at the Senior Bowl. Explosive power over twitch is unlikely to be a move repeated after the failure of Collier.

Dre’Mont Jones’ profile included great length (34 inch arms), agility (4.53 short shuttle) and explosive traits (31.5 inch vertical, 9-2 broad). They also drafted Mike Morris who had a poor combine, sinking his stock into round five having initially been projected as a day-two selection. He hasn’t had an impact in the NFL, perhaps highlighting how important twitchy traits are at this particular position.

Key tests
Short Shuttle, Forty, 10-yard split

Ideal size
DL — +6-2, 275-295lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.35-4.50 ss

Positional assessment
It’s far better than a year ago. I have eight prospects graded for day-two and some of those names will likely be selected in the first round. If the Seahawks want to take a player who can play inside/out, they will have a reasonable opportunity to do so in the first two rounds. Shemar Stewart, Darius Alexander, Jordan Burch and Landon Jackson are all expected to test very well. I’m intrigued to see how Sai’vion Jones performs after a strong Senior Bowl. Georgia’s Mykel Williams won’t work out at the combine.

Interesting note
The Seahawks have selected a defensive lineman with one of their first two picks in eight of the last ten drafts (Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor, L.J. Collier, Rasheem Green, Malik McDowell, Jarran Reed, Frank Clark). In 2023 they also took edge rusher Derick Hall with their third pick. So there’s a reasonable chance they will take a defensive lineman before the end of round two.

Best drills to watch
The two I’ll be watching closely are the figure of eight (where a player has to run around two hoops, picking an object up within the first hoop and placing it down in the second) plus the test where they have to run between a line of bags, slapping two away and spinning past one, before rounding a final bag and finishing. These drills show off change-of direction, ankle-flexion, power and quickness. Again, these were tests where Braden Fiske stood out a year ago.

Five names to watch
Shemar Stewart, Darius Alexander, Sai’vion Jones, Jordan Burch, Landon Jackson

Potential standout
Jordan Burch is said to be capable of running an incredible time despite weighing around 290lbs. Yet he might not be the most impressive tester among the group. Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart needs to work out how to finish plays but there’s no doubting his physical quality. Reportedly he might run in the 4.5’s at 280lbs.

Importance to the Seahawks?
It’s hard to know whether the Seahawks crave a player who fits this mould. They switched Dre’Mont Jones to become more of a lighter EDGE. In Baltimore, they tend to prefer defensive tackle types to play in a front three. Yet for much of Seattle’s recent history it feels like they’ve been chasing a true replacement for Michael Bennett.

Edge rushers

Twitch and length was the name of the game under Carroll and Schneider. They drafted five edge rushers in the first two rounds. Darrell Taylor couldn’t test due to injury but we can well imagine he would be in a similar range to the other players listed below for the forty yard dash, 10-split and short shuttle times:

Bruce Irvin — 4.50 (40), 1.55 (10), 4.03 (ss)
Frank Clark — 4.68 (40), 1.58 (10), 4.05 (ss)
Boye Mafe — 4.53 (40), 1.56 (10), DNP (ss)
Derick Hall — 4.55 (40), 1.59 (10), 4.20 (ss)

Free agent signing Uchenna Nwosu ran a slightly slower 4.65 forty and a 1.63 10-yard split. He also ran a 4.27 shuttle. All of the players here had +33 inch arms, too, aside from Boye Mafe who was a shade below. Macdonald’s use of Kyle Van Noy in Baltimore (31.5 inch arms) suggests length might be less of a deal-breaker going forward but we’ll see. They didn’t draft an edge rusher 12 months ago to give us a feel for what Macdonald might look for.

If they are going to retain these rather typical preferences for NFL pass-rushers we need to look for 10-yard splits in the 1.5’s, shuttles in the 4.0-4.2 range and explosive testing in the vertical/broad jumps.

A 10-yard split in the 1.5’s is considered elite. Cliff Avril famously ran a 1.50. If you’re running a short shuttle in the 4.00’s with the size of an EDGE or defensive end, that is remarkable. Anything in the 4.2’s or 4.3’s is really good too.

Even Seattle’s later round picks all performed relatively well in the shuttle. Cassius Marsh (4.25), Obum Gwacham (4.28) and Alton Robinson (4.32) all excelled.

Key tests
Vertical, Broad, Short Shuttle, Forty, 10-yard split

Ideal size
6-4, 250lbs, +33 inch arms, 1.50-1.59 10-yard split, +35-inch vertical, 4.0-4.3 shuttle

Positional assessment
There are exciting players in this group. Abdul Carter could easily be the #1 pick but he will not work out at the combine. Braydn Swinson is one of the players I’m most intrigued to see, having rated him as a second round talent for so long I’m now willing to push him higher with a good combine. Mike Green won’t work out. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Josaiah Stewart, James Pearce, Princely Umanmielen and Oluwafemi Oladejo can all further elevate their stock and it’ll be interesting to see how the Ohio State duo of Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau get on.

Interesting note
We haven’t seen many elite 1.5 10-yard splits recently. Only two players managed it a year ago — Chop Robinson and Mo Kamara. In 2023, five players got into range (including Derick Hall). Three pass-rushers, including Boye Mafe, ran in the 1.5’s in 2022.

Best drill to watch
For the reason noted above, it’s probably the forty for the 10-yard splits. Seeing how the players change direction and whether they play with aggression and heavy hands in the bag-drills will also be key.

Five names to watch
Bradyn Swinson, James Pearce, Josaiah Stewart, Donovan Ezeiruaku, Oluwafemi Oladejo

Potential standout
James Pearce could crack the 4.4’s. A player once considered to be in the running for the #1 overall pick last summer, his stock has dipped somewhat after an underwhelming final year at Tennessee. A fantastic performance at the combine, paired with surprisingly impressive run-stopping numbers from 2024, could push him back up the boards.

Importance to the Seahawks?
I think they see this as a need. Mafe and Hall have delivered solid performances but neither is a game-wrecker. They don’t appear to have the upside to reach that level. Uchenna Nwosu has had consecutive injury-hit seasons. They need someone who can be a difference maker. It’s also worth noting the lengths they went to a year ago to retain Darrell Taylor, then replace him when he was moved to Chicago. They want a fourth wheel to add to the rotation. If there is a player with top-end upside available to them at #18 or #50, it could be an option.

Linebackers

The Carroll-era Seahawks tended to look for two types of player at linebacker — freakish athletes and players with great short-area quickness and agility. The Mike Macdonald Seahawks might be more led by playing style.

Nothing about Tyrice Knight’s testing stood out. He wasn’t bad in any area, he was just fairly average in terms of size (6-0, 233lbs) speed (4.63 forty), explosive testing (34.5 inch vertical) and agility (4.40 short shuttle). His playing style was distinct though — very active and aggressive, sometimes to his detriment. Yet with guidance, he ended the year playing a solid brand of football in year one.

Ernest Jones is in the same boat. He only ran a 4.71 forty at 230lbs at his pro-day. He was explosive (38.5 inch vertical) but his short shuttle was not spectacular for his size (4.38). What he showed on tape, however, was an aggressive and physical playing style.

In previous years in this article I’d be listing all of the players Seattle drafted with amazing short shuttles, verticals and all-round SPARQ qualities. Now, I think it might be more about attitude and coachability. A player like Demetrius Knight, Danny Stutsman, Jackson Woodard or Jeffrey Bassa — without ideal physical traits — might be as appealing as anyone provided Macdonald believes they are a fit.

Key tests
Forty yard dash, short shuttle, vertical

Ideal size
+6-0, 230-240lbs, 4.4-4.5 forty, 6.70 three-cone, +10’ broad, 4.00-4.20 short shuttle

Positional assessment
This isn’t an amazing group, with limited early round options. I’m listing Jalen Walker as a linebacker but really he’s a hybrid. He isn’t working out at the combine. Many are also starting to describe Jihaad Campbell in the same terms — a hybrid chess-piece. Carson Schwesinger is an excellent player and he reminds me of former blog favourite Logan Wilson. You then have a collection of players you’d expect to go in the second half of the draft. Most of these players are projected to be special teamers first and foremost. The Seahawks will be eager to get a deal done with Ernest Jones because there aren’t a ton of alternatives in this class.

Interesting note
For a long time the Seahawks have not had much depth at the linebacker position. It’s particularly strange given that we’re seven years removed from the team talking about the need to lighten the load on Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, who were basically playing 100% of the snaps. They did spend a high pick on Jordyn Brooks but then insisted on playing three linebackers in base early in his career. Thus, they’ve never achieved the depth they said they wanted. Considering how important this position seems to be for Macdonald’s defense, that could be set to change from this year onwards.

Best drill to watch
Due to the importance of the short shuttle — look how the players work in space, backpedal and read/react. Quickness and change of direction is vital at linebacker.

Five names to watch
Jihaad Campbell, Carson Schwesinger, Cody Lindenberg, Jackson Woodard, Smael Mondon Jr

Potential standout
Minnesota’s Lindenburg is the one apparently set to catch the eye. Bruce Feldman is reporting he can run at nearly 22mph at 240lbs and he’s also capable of a 4.00 short shuttle. In the Carroll days, that would almost certainly put him on Seattle’s radar. This is the kind of athleticism and size that can be harnessed into greatness, so keep an eye on Lindenburg.

Importance to the Seahawks?
This position is newly intriguing under Mike Macdonald. A year ago the Seahawks plugged holes in free agency without much fanfare, seeking value in the market. It became apparent early in the season that things weren’t working, so they aggressively made changes. Clearly this is an important position in the defense. They’ll want to retain Ernest Jones but even if they do, you’ve got to imagine they’d like better depth and possibly some competition for Tyrice Knight.

Defensive backs & tight ends

Arrival: Monday 24th February
Team interviews: Tuesday 25th February
General medical exam: Wednesday 26th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Thursday 27th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Friday 28th February
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Saturday 1st March

Cornerbacks

For years, everyone knew what the Seahawks liked in a corner. You had to have 32 inch arms. You had to be long and lean. In 2021 things changed. They drafted Tre Brown in round four. He was small (5-10, 186lbs) and had 30 3/8 inch arms. Carroll and Schneider talked about shifting their approach, after experiencing the success of D.J. Reed before he joined the New York Jets in free agency. They also took Coby Bryant with 30 5⁄8-inch arms in the fourth round, before confirming for good the change in approach when they spent a top-five pick on Devon Witherspoon with his 5-11, 181lbs frame and 31 1/4 inch arms.

The trend continued last year when they selected Nehemiah Pritchett (31.5 inch arms) and DJ James (31 inch arms). I think we can safely say the focus on length as a non-negotiable are over.

Macdonald in Baltimore did a tremendous job fitting players in at corner. While he had Marlon Humphrey for all of 2022 and 10 games in 2023, he had to make-do otherwise and was able to convert safeties into cornerbacks, develop no-name players and had a lot of success. He’s had a good start in Seattle, getting something out of Josh Jobe for example. However, James was cut after spending almost no time in Seattle and Pritchett struggled when he was given an opportunity. It’ll be interesting to see if Macdonald can continue to find solutions at this position or whether the Seahawks want to make more of a splash.

Key tests
Forty, Vertical, short shuttle

Ideal size
+5-10, 195lbs, +32-inch arms, 4.30-40 forty, +35-inch vertical

Positional assessment
Travis Hunter and Will Johnson will both be high picks but neither are working out at the combine. Jahdae Barron will be listed as a cornerback but his best role will be as a ‘STAR’ similar to Cooper DeJean. Azareye’h Thomas just has the ‘it’ factor at the position, Maxwell Hairston is so smooth with his movements and I love the competitive spirit of Xavier Scott. Darien Porter looks a lot like Riq Woolen (the good and the bad) while Shavon Revel and Benjamin Morrison could’ve been top-40 picks but for the injuries they are still recovering from. Trey Amos, Jacob Parrish, Bilhal Kone and Denzel Burke are worth monitoring too.

Interesting note
The Seahawks only drafted one cornerback between 2018 and 2021. They’ve since selected five in the last three drafts, including using a top-five pick on the position. There are certain positions where you need quality depth and cornerback is definitely one of them. Let’s hope the new trend continues and they keep adding because at the moment they look light at the position.

Best drill to watch
The backpedal drill. Watch to see how the cornerbacks transition and whether it looks effortless. Do they have loose hips and do they explode out of their breaks? Is the footwork smooth or clunky? Are they laboured in any way or do they look natural?

Five names to watch
Jahdae Barron, Azareye’h Thomas, Maxwell Hairston, Zy Alexander, Darien Porter

Potential standout
Given Hunter and Johnson aren’t working out, the one to watch might be Darien Porter. He’s been compared to Riq Woolen in terms of playing style so let’s see how he compares athletically.

Importance to the Seahawks?
I think it’s reasonably important. I get the sense Woolen isn’t exactly Macdonald’s cup of tea, at least in terms of his consistency and commitment to his craft. As talented as he is, can you really give him a big extension? Do they have to start looking for a replacement now? After all, the feeling was right before the 2024 draft that the Seahawks were prepared to draft Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold at #16. If a good cornerback is available in the first three rounds, there’s a chance they’ll pull the trigger.

Safeties

After hitting on Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in 2010, Seattle didn’t have much success at the safety position under Carroll. Ryan Murphy, Winston Guy, Mark LeGree, Tedric Thompson, Delano Hill and Marquise Blair came and went. Jamal Adams was an unmitigated disaster. Quandre Diggs was an inspired trade initially but his play fell off and he became extremely expensive towards the end.

According to this review, safety is a critical position in Macdonald’s scheme. This is underscored by the fact the Ravens drafted Kyle Hamilton with the #14 pick and gave Marcus Williams a five-year, $70m deal. Prior to these moves, they spent big money on Earl Thomas (four-years, $55m).

It’s worth noting that none of Baltimore’s safeties were particularly fast. Hamilton ran a 4.59, Williams a 4.56 and Geno Stone a 4.62. Rayshawn Jenkins, who the Seahawks signed a year ago, ran a 4.51. Everyone wants an ultra-fast field general but by and large, it hasn’t been a priority in Macdonald’s scheme. As with linebacker, playing style seems more important.

Key drills
Forty yard dash, short shuttle, vertical

Ideal size
+6-0, 200-220lbs, 4.4 forty, +39-inch vertical, +10-5 broad jump

Positional assessment
Nick Emmanwori will blow things up with a great testing session and that could secure him a place in round one. Malaki Starks has some work to do to repair his stock after a disappointing 2024 season. I’m a fan of Texas’ Andrew Mukuba and Kevin Winston Jr would’ve been a high pick but for an injury that kept him out for nearly all of last season. Xavier Watts has 13 interceptions in two years, Lathan Ransom made plenty of plays for Ohio State and players like Billy Bowman, Dan Jackson and Jaylen Reed will seek to boost their stock. I’m pretty disappointed that Keondre Jackson and Abe Camara didn’t receive invites.

Interesting note
A year ago I spoke about being underwhelmed by Kam Kinchens’ tape, while acknowledging his 11 interceptions in two seasons was impressive. I kind of feel the same way about Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts. His 13 picks in two years stands out but what is his NFL upside?

Best drill to watch
Any of the drills requiring the safeties to close in space and show off their open-field quickness and range. I also like the ‘W’ drill for this position.

Five names to watch
Nick Emmanwori, Malaki Starks, Andrew Mukuba, Xavier Watts, Billy Bowman

Potential standout
It’s got to be Emmanwori. Per Bruce Feldman, he’s capable of an 11-4 broad jump, a 42-inch vertical and a 4.35 forty at 220lbs. This will be a show worth tuning in for.

Importance to the Seahawks?
A year ago I wrote it was absolutely critical for the Seahawks to add a quality safety, given Diggs and Adams were set for the chop. They only signed Rayshawn Jenkins and ended up playing their best football with Coby Bryant next to Julian Love. I’m not sure there’s a can’t-miss safety in this group, although I really like Emmanwori’s potential and Starks didn’t become a bad player because of one challenging season. The options in free agency do seem more appealing though, given the decreasing value of the position on the open market. You might find a bargain.

Tight ends

The Seahawks have drafted six tight ends under John Schneider, while also trading for Jimmy Graham in 2015 and signing Zach Miller to a big contract in 2011. In the last five years they also signed Greg Olsen, Gerald Everett and Pharaoh Brown to one-year deals and brought in Noah Fant as part of the Russell Wilson trade.

One thing links all 12 players — agility testing.

Short shuttle and three cone:

Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)
Gerald Everett — 4.33 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Noah Fant — 4.22 (ss), 6.81 (3c)
Pharaoh Brown — 4.46 (ss), 7.24 (3c)
AJ Barner — 4.41 (ss), 7.02 (3c)

Short-area quickness and agility appear to be important for any prospective Seahawks tight end so pay close attention to the short shuttle and the three-cone.

This is an understandable approach to the position when you consider the best tight ends in the league all excel here. They generally all have the same thing in common — strong agility testing and a good 10-yard split.

Rob Gronkowski — 1.58 (10), 4.47 (ss)
Travis Kelce — 1.61 (10), 4.42 (ss)
George Kittle — 1.59 (10), 4.55 (ss)
Mark Andrews — 1.54 (10), 4.38 (ss)
T.J. Hockenson — 1.63 (10), 4.18 (ss)
Sam LaPorta — 1.59 (10), 4.25 (ss)
David Njoku — 1.61 (10), 4.34 (ss)

In case you were wondering, Brock Bowers did no pre-draft testing.

Most of the top teams get a lot out of the tight end position within their passing game. This is something the Seahawks have struggled with for years. We’ll see if that finally changes under Klint Kubiak.

Key tests
Short shuttle, three cone, 10-yard split

Ideal size
6-5, 250-265lbs, +33-inch arms, +10-inch hands

Positional assessment
This is a good tight end class. Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland will both be graded among the top-10 players overall on most boards (Loveland isn’t expected to test as he recovers from a shoulder injury. In the second tier, Mason Taylor and Elijah Arroyo are projected to go in the top-40. Arroyo won’t be working out at the combine. Harold Fannin Jr won’t be far behind, with Gunnar Helm and Mitchell Evans also both very capable of going in the top-85. There are also some hidden gems with real potential. Don’t be surprised if Luke Lachey develops into a productive blocking tight end or if Oronde Gadsden becomes a dynamic play-making weapon. Jackson Hawes at Georgia Tech is the most violent and competitive blocker within the group.

Interesting note
In 2017 the Seahawks needed a tight end and were presented with a strong looking class. Unexpectedly, they passed on the position. They drafted seven players before George Kittle was selected in round five by the 49ers — despite his good combine and dynamism as a blocker. Seattle used five picks in rounds 3-4 without taking Kittle, who felt like a great fit for them. It was a huge error, on a par with selecting Rashaad Penny instead of Nick Chubb. These are the kind of mistakes that have cost the Seahawks since their last appearance in the NFC Championship 10 years ago.

Best drill to watch
Catching technique is always important so look for how a player uses his hands. Is he cupping them to the ball? I always like to see TE’s who can move naturally on seam routes and change direction during drills. Who’s running their route at full speed then tracking the deeper pass over the shoulder? Too many TE’s jog their on-field deep routes to make sure they catch the pass.

Five names to watch
Tyler Warren, Mason Taylor, Oronde Gadsden, Mitchell Evans, Harold Fannin Jr

Potential standout
It’s possible Loveland will put on a show and Gadsden is such a dynamic threat I had to include him as a name to watch. However, Arroyo is expected to run in the low 4.5’s at 250lbs and his Senior Bowl display was so good — it won’t be a surprise if he overtakes Mason Taylor on some boards to be TE3. His body control, box-out ability and hands are excellent.

Importance to the Seahawks?
Until they have a truly dynamic, game-changing tight end it feels like it’ll always be a need. However, there’s no indication they’ll cut Noah Fant for a meagre saving. AJ Barner was better than expected as a pass-catcher (and was quite disappointing as a blocker). They’ll need to replace Pharaoh Brown as a blocking tight end but how big a price do you want to pay for that?

QB, WR, RB

Arrival: Monday 24th February
Team interviews: Tuesday 25th February
General medical exam: Thursday 27th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Friday 28th & Wednesday 26th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Saturday 1st March
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Sunday 2nd March & Thursday 27th February

Quarterbacks

The Seahawks are now three years removed from the Russell Wilson trade. When the deal was finalised with Denver, most people assumed the Seahawks would be extremely active to find a young replacement. Instead, they continue to have Geno Smith as a veteran starter with a never-ending tiresome debate about his future and what comes next.

I don’t blame the Seahawks for not drafting a quarterback in the last three drafts. They haven’t whiffed on anybody. Wanting them to draft a quarterback for the sake of it is silly. If you do not see starting potential in a player — at this position or any other — you don’t draft them. That doesn’t change just because it’s a signal caller. You do your scouting work, produce a grade and that’s it. If anything, Schneider should be applauded for not forcing a pick to fill a need, given none of the quarterbacks he passed on amounted to anything.

When Schneider sees an available quarterback he really likes, he will take him. I don’t even know why that is questioned. Most GM’s live for drafting quarterbacks. It’s one of the best parts of the job, trying to find the next great QB. It’s how reputations are built. The Seahawks need to draft the right player, not the next player just to make it seem like they’re doing something about the situation.

I believe it’s Schneider intention to draft a quarterback every year, like he says. I think this year there’s the strongest possibility since 2022 for that to happen because there’s going to be a middle-class at the position, with players taken between rounds 2-4.

For all the key analytical data on the quarterback class, check out my detailed breakdown by clicking here.

Key tests
Deep throws, Forty

Ideal size
+6-2, 220lbs, +9.5 inch hands

Positional assessment
Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward announced they won’t be throwing at the combine. It has been confirmed that Jaxson Dart, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe and Riley Leonard will throw. I don’t have a single quarterback graded in round one. I do, however, think there are 10 players you could realistically take between rounds 2-4. The likes of Sanders, Ward and possibly Dart will go earlier than their grade suggests. Players like Dart — who do carry some analytical intrigue — feel more like ‘second pick players’. By that I mean you’d rather be a team who selects a better player at a different position in round one, then add Dart as a ‘taking a chance’ selection after rather than making any firm commitment or statement that he’s the future of the franchise. That’s unavoidable when you make a quarterback your top selection in round one. I think the likes of Will Howard, Ewers, Leonard, Milroe, Tyler Shough and Kyle McCord will be off the board before the end of round four. I think Schneider could have interest in this class and I’ve felt for some time he might be eyeing Ewers — although Howard’s impressive playoff run needs to be noted. Kurtis Rourke appears tailor-made for the Shanahan/Kubiak offense and is someone I think would be worthwhile adding, although his stock will be impacted by his ongoing recovery from an ACL injury that he played with in 2024.

Interesting note
Much is made of hand size and that could be important. Russell Wilson has 10 1/4-inch hands. However, Patrick Mahomes only has 9 1/4-inch hands. It might be more of an ideal than a key factor.

The best drill to watch
Everyone wants to see the top QB’s throw the deep ball. I used to think it was a waste of time at the combine but I’ve changed my mind. It’s a great way to compare all of the QB’s because they’re throwing in the same setting. You can do an apple’s for apple’s comparison — without all the home comforts of a scripted pro-day.

Five names to watch
Jaxson Dart, Quinn Ewers, Will Howard, Jalen Milroe, Tyler Shough

Potential standout
I’m really intrigued to see how Ewers performs. He had a hit and miss career at Texas and his stock is teetering a little. We know he’s capable of throwing a beautiful deep ball. Let’s see it here. That could be the thing to get his stock back on track. Aside from Ewers’ arm, finding out just how athletic Milroe is will be interesting.

Importance to the Seahawks
The Seahawks fanbase is ridiculous at times. Recently it has become less fun to follow the team because of the never-ending Geno Smith discourse. You have two cheeks from the same arse, one constantly going over the top trying to argue he’s the best thing since sliced bread and the other trying to argue he needs to be cut after every single wayward throw. The constant point-scoring on social media and nose-thumbing is tiresome and childish. Those of us in the middle often get labelled as being in one of the groups — when in reality it’s perfectly reasonable to acknowledge Smith is an acceptable bridge to whatever’s next, while also wanting the Seahawks to identify a longer term plan. It would do everyone the power of good if they could create such a plan this year. Again though, you can’t just draft someone for the sake of it. They’ll only do it if the right player is available — and rightly so.

Wide receivers

The Seahawks using the #20 pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a departure in 2023. He reportedly ran a 4.52 at his pro-day. Prior to that pick, they’d only drafted three receivers who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster and they were all late round picks.

Smith-Njigba did run an excellent 3.93 short shuttle and a blistering 6.57 three-cone so maybe that made up for a lack of straight-line speed? It does again speak to a new-found flexibility in Seattle’s approach recently. They seem to be focusing less on ideals (cornerback length, arm-length for defensive tackles, receiver speed etc) and more on overall talent.

Carroll and Schneider drafted the following players before Smith-Njigba:

Paul Richardson — 4.40
Golden Tate — 4.42
Tyler Lockett — 4.40
Kris Durham — 4.46
Kevin Norwood — 4.48
Amara Darboh — 4.45
David Moore — 4.42
D.K. Metcalf — 4.33
Freddie Swain — 4.46
Dee Eskridge — 4.38
Bo Melton — 4.34
Dareke Young — 4.44

With Tyler Lockett’s Seahawks career seemingly close to an end — and with a replacement potentially being added at some point through the draft — it’ll be interesting to see if they focus on speed and suddenness.

Positional assessment
It’s a deep class at receiver every year these days. Luther Burden, Tetairoa McMillan and Matthew Golden all have a chance to go in round one. McMillan reportedly won’t run at the combine. I wouldn’t rule out Emeka Egbuka (who won’t run at the combine) and Tre Harris also being in the mix. I currently have 25 other receivers with draftable grades. It’s a position college football is churning out spectacularly. Teams will again be able to find contributors well into rounds 3-4. Highlighted players include the very intriguing Jack Bech and Nick Nash, with Kyle Williams, Josh Kelly, Jayden Higgins, Ricky White III and Ja’Corey Brooks potentially providing ‘hidden gem’ value.

Interesting note
The Seahawks under Schneider have been prepared to draft receivers at any point in the draft. Smith-Njigba was their first pick in round one (if you don’t include the Percy Harvin trade). They’ve drafted four players in round two (Tate, Richardson, Metcalf, Eskridge), two in round three (Darboh, Lockett), three in round four (Norwood, Harper, Durham), one in round six (Swain) and five in round seven (Moore, Lawler, Ursua, Melton, Young). They’ve always taken this position seriously.

Key tests
Forty, vertical, catching drills (proper technique)

Ideal size
Just run a 4.4 forty or faster

The best drill to watch
Any drill that clearly shows catching technique. It’s extremely important. You want to see a receiver cupping his hands while presenting to the ball. No alligator arms, no fighting the ball or snatching at it. Watch the downfield throws and see who is good at high pointing the football, showing body control and tracking over the shoulder. Who is a natural hands catcher?

Five names to watch
Tre Harris, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Jack Bech, Savion Williams

Potential standout
TCU’s Savion Williams is expected to be the star tester. He can jump a 40 inch vertical, his bench-press and squat numbers are incredible and he’s been clocked running at nearly 23mph.

Importance to the Seahawks
It really depends on the kind of team they want to be and their decision on the future of DK Metcalf. If they want to be a Harbaugh-style bludgeoning run-centric offense, the need to have a major investment at receiver isn’t quite as critical. Lockett will need to be replaced. If Metcalf departs too, it becomes more serious. It’s worth noting that Klint Kubiak got a lot out of Rashid Shaheed and Marquez Valdez-Scantling in 2024 so they might be able to plug players into a WR3 role based on profile. I would rather the Seahawks look for value here.

Running backs

The Seahawks had a type at running back in the Carroll/Schneider era. Their runners were about 210-220lbs and they produced explosive testing results (good vertical & broad jump). Since 2016 we’ve been able to pretty much figure out who they might like. Here are the players we identified between 2016-23 after each combine as a possible target. Players in bold became Seahawks:

2016:

C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-1 broad
Kenneth Dixon — 5-10, 215lbs, 37.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad

2017:

Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs, 37 inch vert, 10-10 broad
Brian Hill — 6-0, 219lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Alvin Kamara — 5-10, 214lbs, 39.5 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Joe Williams — 5-11, 210lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-5 broad

2018:

Saquon Barkley — 6-0, 233lbs, 41 inch vert DNP broad
Kerryon Johnson — 511, 213lbs 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Bo Scarborough — 6-0, 228lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-9 broad
Nick Chubb — 5-11, 227lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
John Kelly — 5-10, 216lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Lavon Coleman — 5-10, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Rashaad Penny — 5-11, 220lbs, 32.5 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Royce Freeman — 5-11, 229lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-10 broad

2020:

Jonathan Taylor — 5-10, 226lbs, 36 inch vert, 10-3 broad
Cam Akers — 5-10, 217lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-2 broad
Deejay Dallas — 5-10, 217lbs, 33.5 inch vert, 9-11 broad
AJ Dillon — 6-0, 247lbs, 41 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Zack Moss — 5-9, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, DNP broad
James Robinson — 5-9, 219lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Patrick Taylor — 6-0, 217lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-3 broad

2022:

Breece Hall — 5-11, 217lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Brian Robinson — 6-2, 225lbs, 30 inch vert, 9-11 broad
Dameon Pierce — 5-10, 218lbs, 34.5 inch vert, 9-11 broad
D’Vonte Price — 6-1, 210lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-11 broad
Isaiah Pacheco — 5-10, 216lbs, 33 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Jerome Ford — 5-10, 210lbs, 31 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Kenneth Walker — 5-9, 211lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-2 broad
Kevin Harris — 5-10, 221lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Snoop Conner — 5-10, 222lbs, 29.5 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Rachaad White — 6-0, 214lbs, 38 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Tyler Allgeier — 5-11, 224lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Tyrion Davis-Price — 6-0, 211lbs, 30 inch vert, 9-9 broad
Zamir White — 6-0, 214lbs, 33.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad

2023:

Tank Bigsby — 5-11, 210lbs, 32.5v, 9-11b, 4.56 forty
Chase Brown — 5-9, 209lbs, 40v, 10-7b, 4.43 forty
Zach Charbonnet — 6-0, 214lbs, 37v, 10-2b, 4.53 forty
Tiyon Evans — 5-9, 225lbs, 30.5 v, DNPb, 4.52 forty
Evan Hull — 5-10, 209lbs, 37v, 10-3b, 4.47 forty
Bijan Robinson — 5-10, 215lbs, 37v, 10-4b, 4.46 forty

In 2021 the combine was cancelled and in 2019 we identified Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison, LJ Scott, Miles Sanders, Dexter Williams and Tony Pollard as possible options. Running back was an unlikely target that year with the depth they had at the position.

The two players they selected outside of the size ideal were Travis Homer — a sixth round pick with special teams value — and Kenny McIntosh — a talented but undersized player selected in the seventh round. We did name McIntosh as ‘one to watch’ in our 2023 combine preview due to his running style.

The Seahawks had no need to add a running back in 2024. They might be tempted to this year given the sheer quality and depth of the class, especially with Ken Walker going into a contract year.

Key tests
Vertical, Broad, size

Ideal size
5-10, 220lbs, +35 inch vertical, +10 broad

Positional assessment
What a class. You have a legit blue-chipper at the top end in Ashton Jeanty (although it’s been revealed Jeanty will not work out at the combine). Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson and Omarion Hampton are quality second-tier options. Quinshon Judkins, Devin Neal, DJ Giddens, Dylan Sampson, Ja’Quinden Jackson, Bhayshul Tuten and Jordan James are really appealing. Brashard Smith is undersized but he just looks like a really good fit in zone with playmaking quickness and athleticism. I have another 13 players graded for day three and I haven’t even studied everyone. There will be future starters littered throughout this draft, available on all three days.

Interesting note
The Seahawks preferred explosive traits over straight line speed for some time. Christine Michael (4.54), C.J. Prosise (4.48), Robert Turbin (4.50) and Chris Carson (4.58) were better explosive testers than runners. Things then shifted a little. Rashaad Penny wasn’t quite as explosive but ran a 4.46. They admitted after the 2022 draft that they thought there were two top-level running backs — Ken Walker (who they drafted) and Breece Hall. Walker ran a 4.38 and Hall a 4.39. The pick of Charbonnet was a return to the past. He ran a 4.53 but was highly explosive (37-inch vertical) with ideal size and a tough running style. He screamed ‘Seahawks’ for two years at UCLA and it wasn’t a surprise they took him.

The best drill to watch
It’s nice to see the running backs cutting against pads while showing body control and quickness in the open field. You can tell who has it and who doesn’t in these drills and it’s where Walker really excelled three years ago — changing direction despite having a very muscular, thick frame.

Five names to watch
Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, Omarion Hampton, Bhayshul Tuten, Brashard Smith

Potential standout
Bhayshul Tuten is expected to test through the roof. He’s said to be able to run a 4.32 and jump a 39 inch vertical.

Importance to the Seahawks
After spending two high picks on Walker and Charbonnet and with some promising signs from Kenny McIntosh last year, the absolute maximum Seattle should be thinking is a late round flier for depth. It would be wise to try and add a runner later on given the value that is likely to be on offer within this excellent class.

O-line

Arrival: Tuesday 25th February
Team interviews: Wednesday 26th February
General medical exam: Friday 28th February March
Media & NFLPA meeting: Saturday 1st March & Thursday 27th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Sunday 2nd March
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Monday 3rd March & Friday 28th February

Offensive linemen

This has typically been the point in the combine preview where I introduce ‘TEF’ — the formula we created to calculate explosive testing. In the past it helped us identify potential O-line targets for the Seahawks successfully, using data points recommended by Tom Cable during his time coaching in Seattle.

I’ll still do a full TEF breakdown of the 2025 draft class because I think it’s interesting to see which players possess explosive traits and how the different players compare — both within the class and historically. There is value in explosive testing. Most of the top linemen in the league are explosive testers, as I detailed in this article. If you want to learn more about TEF, click here.

However, I don’t think TEF will be as effective in identifying future Seahawks. Instead, it feels more pertinent to focus on the characteristics more prevalent for zone blocking.

We know the Seahawks are going to run a lot of outside zone under Klint Kubiak. I had a look at the average testing results for the top-10 highest graded zone blocking interior linemen in 2024:

40-yard dash: 5.10
10-yard split: 1.75
Short shuttle: 4.54
Vertical jump: 31 inches

Unsurprisingly, a good level of athleticism is required. The results in terms of the 40-yard dash and 10-yard splits are also impacted by two times that were quite slow, run by Will Fries and Kevin Zeitler (who still ran 4.51 and 4.61 short shuttle times respectively). If you take out their runs, the average 40 time drops to 5.01 and the split drops to 1.73. It might be best to keep these times in mind, rather than the overall averages.

I will be looking for offensive linemen at the combine this year who perform in these ranges:

40-yard dash: 5.00-5.10
10-yard split: 1.73-1.76
Short shuttle: 4.50-4.55
Vertical jump: 30-32 inches

These are all of the offensive linemen in the 2025 draft who graded 70 or over for zone blocking in 2024. Those in blue graded over 90, in green graded over 80 and the names in purple graded over 70:

Charles Grant
Wyatt Milum
Armand Membou
Jack Nelson
Logan Brown
Clay Webb
Grey Zabel
Cameron Williams
Marcus Mbow 
Kelvin Banks Jr
Connor Colby 
Jared Wilson
Aireontae Ersery 
Dylan Fairchild 
Luke Kandra
Will Campbell
Josh Conerly Jr
Donovan Jackson
Drew Kendall 
Emmanuel Pregnon 
Joshua Gray 
Tate Ratledge 

It stands to reason that any of the names above, especially those near the top of the list, could be on Seattle’s radar — particularly if their testing results also match-up with the best zone blockers currently in the NFL.

I think it will be important to focus on specific grading and characteristics for zone. A year ago the New Orleans Saints drafted Taliese Fuaga in round one. His zone blocking grade at Oregon State in 2023 was an elite 91.3. He ran a 5.13 forty despite being 324lbs and jumped a 32 inch vertical (he did no agility testing pre-draft).

It could mean someone like Armand Membou, who is expected to test brilliantly and had a zone blocking grade of 87.5 at Missouri, could be an ideal pick for the Seahawks. I also think tape plays a role in this. For example, Grey Zabel and Kelvin Banks Jr both played left tackle in college. Their zone blocking grades in 2024 were 84.8 and 81.5 respectively. However, I’d argue on tape that Zabel looks tailor made to play in a zone system at a very high level. I’m not entirely convinced Banks Jr is.

I’m also very high on Jake Majors are center yet his zone grade (63.8) isn’t good. Drafting and developing Clay Webb (84.9) later on could be a better option.

For key data on the offensive line draft and free agency class check out my detailed breakdown by clicking here.

Key tests
Vertical, Short Shuttle, Forty, 10-yard split

Ideal size/testing
OT — +6-4, 305-320lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.90-5.00 forty, 4.40 ss
OG — 6-2/6-5, 300-320lbs, +33 inch arms, +3.00 TEF
OC — 6-0/6-2, 295lbs, 4.50 ss

Positional assessment
It’s a paper-thin class at the top-end for offensive tackles — a complete contrast to a year ago. However, it’s a strong looking class of interior linemen. Many of the bigger-name tackles are projected to kick inside, such as Will Campbell, Kelvin Banks Jr and Armand Membou. The pure guards are led by the exceptional Tyler Booker, followed by Donovan Jackson and the Georgia duo of Tate Ratledge and Dylan Fairchild. Grey Zabel’s Senior Bowl became overhyped beyond belief but the simple fact is this — his tape is absolutely fantastic and he looks perfectly suited to be a top-performing zone guard. The other zone blocking options are plentiful, as you can see from the list above. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Jack Nelson, Clay Webb, Connor Colby, Wyatt Milum and Luke Kandra. Meanwhile at center, it’s not good news. I really rate Texas’ Jake Majors but is he a fit? Jared Wilson looks well suited to Seattle’s scheme and as mentioned, Webb could convert to center. Seth McLaughlin’s achilles tear makes him a difficult projection and the likes of Jonah Monheim and Drew Kendall — while both fits for a zone offense — don’t necessarily look like NFL starters. They will need to test well.

Interesting note
The average short shuttle time for the best centers in the league is a 4.56. When I interviewed Juice Scruggs two years ago he said he’d been working hard on his short shuttle times, following advice that it was viewed as an important test. It’s something to keep an eye on if you want the Seahawks to pick a center. Drew Dalman, a top-five player at the position and a free agent this year, ran a 4.51.

The best drills to watch
The mirror drill and kick-slide. In the mirror, two linemen used to stand opposite each other, with one acting as ‘the rabbit’. He’d move around and change direction and it’s up to the participant to stick. Now they don’t use the ‘rabbit’. It’s an important test of footwork, agility, mobility, balance, control and stamina. It’s also a good gauge of pass protection skills. In the kick-slide, it speaks for itself. How well do the offensive tackles get into position, how athletic do they do it, what’s the footwork like? I also like to watch the linemen move around the field from side-to-side so we can see who are the more fluid athletes. Abe Lucas looked so smooth out there three years ago and it showed in the way he played as a rookie. You also want to look at how players bend — whether it’s at the waist or in the knees — and you want to see violent strikes on the pads, not high-fives. Overall though you aren’t drafting a big, gnarling offensive lineman based on what he does in shorts on the field at the combine. Tape and testing is king here.

Five names to watch
Tackle — Armand Membou, Charles Grant, Jack Nelson, Logan Brown, Kelvin Banks Jr

Guard — Wyatt Milum, Grey Zabel, Connor Colby, Dylan Fairchild, Luke Kandra

Center — Clay Webb, Jared Wilson, Jonah Monheim, Drew Kendall, Jake Majors

Potential standout
Quite a few players are expected to shine. Aireontae Ersery has reportedly run a 1.52 10-yard split, which I find hard to believe. It’s not as silly as people at William & Mary claiming Charles Grant can run a 1.44. Donovan Jackson is expected to time well and produce explosive testing numbers. Will Campbell will produce a top combine performance. However, I’m going to suggest Armand Membou is the one to watch here. He is the one who can really elevate his stock after sitting out the Senior Bowl. His zone blocking grades also make him very intriguing.

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A few adjustments to my latest 2025 NFL mock draft

I never understood why people put ‘1.0’ after their mocks, given there’s never an updated ‘1.1’. And yet here I am. I guess you could call this ‘mock 3.1’.

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
I still don’t believe the Titans will reach on a quarterback with the roster needing major work. They should take a step back and embrace a build. They can’t just keep throwing young quarterbacks into the fire. Carter recorded 66 pressures in his final season at Penn State, the same number Nick Bosa had in his last full season at Ohio State.

#2 Cleveland — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
They are consigned to another year of paying Deshaun Watson and this isn’t a good quarterback class at the top end. The Browns made the playoffs with Joe Flacco in 2023 and might feel they can quickly bounce back with a veteran presence under center. Kirk Cousins would only cost the veteran minimum and he had a successful two years with Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota. Then, they can draft a quarterback later — allowing them to take a different player here. There’s been talk of ‘Coach Prime’ warning the Browns off Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, so Cleveland might pivot to the trenches.

#3 NY Giants — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
In this projection I have the Rams trading Matthew Stafford to the Giants for the 34th pick. The Giants therefore don’t select a quarterback here, instead they take Travis Hunter.

#4 New England — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The Patriots could be big spenders in free agency to try and repair their offensive line. Tyler Warren is one of the best players in the draft. He was Drew Allar’s #1 target — a playmaker and a safety valve. Giving Drake Maye a fantastic, reliable weapon like this could be the making of him — provided they add O-liners in free agency. You have to believe they will.

#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
It just feels a bit like an injury-hit season has made everyone forget what a good player Johnson is — one of the very best in this draft. The Jaguars need a playmaker in their secondary.

#6 Las Vegas — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
Booker has the best guard tape since Quenton Nelson, the #6 overall pick in 2018. It’s not just the tape though. It’s his leadership and presence. With Pete Carroll seeking to re-set the culture in Vegas, this is more than just an injection of talent for the offensive line. It’s a statement of intent to build a new personality within the building.

#7 NY Jets — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
Ward is not a can’t-miss quarterback prospect so the idea of him lasting to #7 shouldn’t be some kind of big shock. We’ll see how he weighs and measures at the combine. There’s a reason why, a year ago, he wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl and was being projected in the later rounds. The Jets need a quarterback and Ward’s personality feels like a good match for new Head Coach Aaron Glenn as he tries to build a culture in New York.

#8 Carolina — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
I’ve been saying it for months — Loveland will be graded way higher than the internet is suggesting. It’s now being reported by some well known pundits that he won’t get out of the top-15. He will be seen as one of the few genuine first round talents in the class. He can become Bryce Young’s go-to target.

#9 New Orleans — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
Kellen Moore just won a Super Bowl in part because the Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL. This isn’t New Orleans’ biggest need but they do have a hole at left guard. Why not make the O-line the focal point of your team? Plug Membou in at left guard and get to work running the football.

#10 Chicago — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Someone is going to take Jeanty early. He will be the highest graded player on several boards and the only reason he wouldn’t go earlier is due to positional value. The Bears should set out to make big splashes in free agency to fill holes on their offensive line (it won’t be a surprise if they win the race for Trey Smith). Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit featured two dynamic running backs, including one drafted in this range. Jeanty can be an absolute star here.

#11 San Francisco — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
I’m not a huge fan of Grant’s overall tape. I wanted to see more aggression and I think he relies too much on his (admittedly unique for his size) quickness. He didn’t make enough plays despite playing next to Mason Graham. However, if he tests as well as everyone says at 340lbs, I concede he will go earlier than my grade suggests. The 49ers need to replace Javon Hargrave. They built their way to success with a great defensive line previously. Nick Bosa needs help.

#12 Dallas — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
People are sleeping on Colston Loveland because his offense collapsed in 2024 and Burden’s getting the same treatment. He didn’t really fit the Mizzou system. The league will see a top-level talent and he could be absolutely electric when paired with Ceedee Lamb. The Cowboys often find value in this range.

#13 Miami — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
He’s such a playmaker and his character’s off the charts. Barron can play in the slot or outside, he plays with physicality and has great character. The most impressive thing in 2024 was seeing how much he attacked defending the run.

#14 Indianapolis — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
The Colts haven’t been afraid to draft short-armed tackles in the past (Bernhard Raimann, Braden Smith). They could put Campbell at guard initially, with the idea he could kick outside in the future. I thought Campbell played poorly in 2024 and was a disappointment. I don’t think he’ll go as early as some think.

#15 Atlanta — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
It’s hard to place Walker after his 2024 season. He flashed greatness early on, then went into his shell a bit. He’s a lesser version of Abdul Carter. Some teams will grade him very highly I’m sure. If the Falcons are one of those teams, their GM Terry Fontenot is a big proponent of ‘best player available’.

#16 Arizona — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
I thought his Senior Bowl appearance was overrated. He kept going to the same ineffective spin-move, then he had one good rep against Josh Conerly Jr (playing on the opposite side of the line to the one he’s used to) and suddenly he’s in a cab back to the airport calling it a job done. Give me a break. That said, his tape is quite electrifying and he plays with a non-stop motor. You can’t ignore 17 sacks in 2024.

#17 Cincinnati — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Some thought Williams could turn into a top-five pick with a strong 2024 season but it never happened. He needs to test well to charge up his stock because there’s too much projection and too little production with Williams.

#18 Seattle — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
Banks’ best fit will be to kick inside to guard. His zone blocking grade at tackle for Texas was decent (81.5) and might improve when he moves inside. He’ll go earlier than this if teams think he can excel at tackle but I’m not convinced they will. I don’t think he’s as good as Alijah Vera-Tucker coming out but he’s bigger and could/should make the same transition inside.

#19 Tampa Bay — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
He looks the part of a top pass-rusher and his run-stop responsibility percentage was surprisingly high. He does look a little bit stiff at times bending the arc and his production in 2024 was underwhelming.

#20 Denver — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
Sean Payton likes these types of defender, previously spending two first round picks on Marcus Davenport. It’s easy to imagine him gambling on Stewart, who has incredible physical tools but too often didn’t finish plays and was spelled a bit too much to be comfortable with at Texas A&M.

#21 Pittsburgh — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
The Steelers need a drama-free wide receiver and that’s what McMillan can be. He tracks the ball brilliantly in the air and can contort his body to make difficult grabs look easy. He can be an impact player in Pittsburgh and doesn’t need perfectly thrown passes to make plays.

#22 LA Chargers — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
By far Texas’ best weapon in 2024, Golden combined dynamic quickness with difficult grabs and big plays. The Chargers are a trenches team and could be losing their best two edge rushers so I’m not that comfortable pairing them with a receiver — but this would be a good match for Justin Herbert.

#23 Green Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
His run defense will get him on the field early and he has a terrific assortment of moves to get into the backfield. Testing will be key but there’s a heck of a player here with technique, field IQ and length.

#24 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
His run defense is good at his size which is a huge plus but aside from a couple of decent games last season I don’t think we saw a game-wrecker.

#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
Reportedly he has 36-inch arms which makes you wonder if some teams might consider whether he has positional flexibility, especially given how he finished the season. The Texans badly need to improve their offensive line.

#26 LA Rams — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Sanders lasts a bit. There’s nothing physically or analytically that stands out as special and his percentage responsibility for creating sacks and pressures is obscene. Even so, there might be an opportunistic offensive mind who thinks they can get the best out of him and ‘Coach Prime’ would surely approve of a home for his son in LA with Sean McVay.

#27 Baltimore — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
His play fell off a cliff in the second half of the season and there’s no guarantee he’ll go in the first round. The Ravens need a safety though and they have a knack of capitalising on talent when players drop into range.

#28 Detroit — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
He’s just such a fluid, explosive mover for his position and he’s built like a tank. There’s also increasing talk that some teams might try and turn him into an EDGE rusher. He’s a very intriguing talent.

#29 Washington — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
The best left tackle in the draft who only lasts this long because he’s recovering from a knee injury. This would be a great get for the Commanders.

#30 Buffalo — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
Testing will be key because of his size — can he transition with ease and change direction? His tape is very good and he had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl.

#31 Kansas City — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
No, this isn’t the biggest priority for the Chiefs. The point of a mock draft though isn’t to just fill every teams’ biggest need. Henderson is absolutely electrifying as a runner and the Chiefs are always looking for X-factor players.

#32 Cleveland (v/PHI) — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
If they add Kirk Cousins in free agency, they can look to add a quarterback here. Dart has the analytical data of a player who will go in this range. The Browns jump up one spot to ensure they get the fifth-year option.

Round two

#33 Philadelphia (v/CLE) — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
The Eagles could lose talent at linebacker in free agency. Schwesinger might be a one-year wonder but his tape was absolutely fantastic in 2024.

#34 LA Rams (v/NYG) — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
With Cooper Kupp moving on the Rams go and get a downfield threat to complement Puka Nacua as they further re-shape their offense.

#35 Tennessee — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
The Titans continue to draft for talent and add a player with all of the tools needed to be an excellent tight end.

#36 Jacksonville — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
Egbuka would be an ideal WR2 to place alongside Brian Thomas Jr. It’s easy to imagine him having the same kind of success as Jalen McMillan did as a rookie in Liam Coen’s offense.

#37 Las Vegas — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
Tre’von Moehrig is a free agent but even if they keep him, we know Pete Carroll loves a playmaking safety. Watts had 13 interceptions in the last two seasons.

#38 New England — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
He might be a bit stiff but then you just look at the frame and focus on the wins and you realise — some teams are going to value this guy way higher than the Mike Green types who are short and lack length. Jackson is built like a terminator and is a ‘win getting off the bus’ type of player.

#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
After a brilliant week in Mobile, Arroyo could be Chicago’s answer to Sam LaPorta for Ben Johnson.

#40 New Orleans — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
The Saints start to consider life after Cam Jordan. Some like Scourton more than I do — I see another Boogie Basham or AJ Epeneza type.

#41 Chicago — Josh Conerly (T, Oregon)
He’s really scrappy on tape and Ben Johnson will probably like that. It’ll remind him of the way his offense in Detroit competed.

#42 NY Jets — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Williams would make a terrific, stout partner for Quinnen Williams. He does such a good job against the run.

#43 San Francisco — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Stewart’s 27% pass-rush win-percentage led the class for 2024. He wrecked the game against USC. The combine is big for him given his lack of length and height.

#44 Dallas — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
He might have the weight of a nose tackle but he’s far from that — he’s way more penetrative and athletic. He’s only scratched the surface of his potential so far.

#45 Indianapolis — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
The Colts love big-time athletes. Emmanwori could easily go in the first round but it’s not unusual for safety’s to last.

#46 Atlanta — Grey Zabel (G/C, North Dakota State)
If the Falcons lose Drew Dalman in free agency, Zabel could be his replacement.

#47 Arizona — Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
He showed a few flashes of Chris Jones at the Senior Bowl. The Cardinals need playmakers up front.

#48 Miami — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
Harman’s pass-rush production is excellent but will it translate given his lack of a prototypical frame?

#49 Cincinnati — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
This is quite a fall and maybe an over-correction on my behalf but I just wanted to see more at the Senior Bowl.

#50 Seattle — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
I’ve had Swinson in this range for a long time but I’m starting to wonder if he won’t last this long. He has great length, he bends the arc brilliantly, he has powerful hands and he has a sprinkling of star quality to his personality. His win percentage of 22% is excellent. If you want to see what he’s capable of, watch the Ole Miss tape from 2024. He wrecked the game. The Seahawks need game-wreckers.

#51 Denver — Harold Fanin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
The Broncos need a tight end. Sean Payton has found ways to max-out receiver-first TE’s in the past and Fanin Jr might appeal to him.

#52 Pittsburgh — Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina)
Hampton does have a Steelers feel to his game, given his massive yards-after-contact destruction, second only to Ashton Jeanty.

#53 Tampa Bay — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
Injury prevented him from maxing out his stock at Penn State but he’s a quality player who could provide real value here.

#54 Green Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
He’s a one-year wonder but the brilliant Senior Bowl performance showed he has legit qualities and he could end up being another Jordy Nelson for the Packers.

#55 LA Chargers — Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
Simply put, this guy is a dude. Amazing frame, plays with his hair on fire, gets everyone going. One of the Senior Bowl’s big winners.

#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
The more you dig into his tape and background (three sport athlete) you start to wonder how early he could go. Excellent potential.

#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
A tremendous player with a high level of intensity, power, athleticism and character. He had seven sacks in 2024. If you missed my recent interview with him, check it out here. He could be an option for the Seahawks.

#58 Houston — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
The Stefon Diggs experiment didn’t work, so here’s the replacement.

#59 Baltimore — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
The Ravens continue to add players to their secondary. Hairston looked so smooth during Senior Bowl 1v1’s.

#60 Detroit — Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
Everything about Sawyer feels like a Lions pick. He’ll have to handle moving to Michigan but it’s very easy to imagine him landing in Detroit. Not a great athlete but his character and playing style screams Dan Campbell.

#61 Washington — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
I think Johnson is RB2 in this draft class. A tremendous player who could be a star in the right system.

#62 Buffalo — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
I just think there’s too much average tape with JTT and he doesn’t look like a difference maker.

#63 Kansas City — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
I’m not sure how to judge Umanmielen. I know the Chiefs need a left tackle but I’m not sure another rookie is the answer.

#64 Philadelphia — Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)
Turner plays on the edge of what is, shall we say, acceptable. Some teams will love what he brings, others not so much. There will be flags in his future.

A few thoughts on the Seahawks

— They have to compete in free agency to fix their offensive line. The can’t rely on someone like Kelvin Banks Jr or Tyler Booker lasting to #18. Yes, the top players available will be very expensive. You might feel uncomfortable splashing out on a guard and a center. If you want to be the kind of team capable of beating teams up, making them fear you home or away and if you want to run the ball effectively, you have no choice. Nothing will super-charge this team and fanbase more than a couple of splashes on the O-line. Carolina did it with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis a year ago. Better players are available in this free agency pool. Make it happen.

— I truly believe Bradyn Swinson can be what the Seahawks currently lack — a potential game-changer off the edge. Testing will be important for him. I’ll say this though — if he produces a great 10-yard split at the combine, you’ll start hearing his name in the first round mix. I’m convinced the Seahawks will take a defensive lineman with one of their top two picks. They’ve done it in eight of the last 10 drafts. In one of those other two drafts, they took Derick Hall with their third pick at the start of round two.

— There is a possibility, in my opinion, that the Seahawks could take a quarterback at #82. I do think there’s a chance the likes of Will Howard and Quinn Ewers could be options for the Seahawks. Even if they take one in that range, I’d still like to see them come away with Kurtis Rourke. I think he looks like an excellent fit for the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme.

— I’d love to find a way to get back the fourth rounder they gave to Tennessee for Ernest Jones. I’m not sure how you do it without trading down from #18 or #50 — and that might not be possible if the players you really want last to those picks. I don’t think they’re trading DK Metcalf away. Is there any way to fill the big gap between their picks at #82 and #137?

New two-round pre-combine 2025 NFL mock draft

I decided to do video analysis this time instead of a blurb but the full list of the mock draft is below…

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
#2 Cleveland — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
#3 NY Giants — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
#4 New England — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
#6 Las Vegas — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
#7 NY Jets — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
#8 Carolina — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
#9 New Orleans — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
#10 Chicago — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
#11 San Francisco — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
#12 Dallas — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
#13 Miami — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
#14 Indianapolis — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
#15 Atlanta — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
#16 Arizona — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
#17 Cincinnati — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
#18 Seattle — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
#19 Tampa Bay — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
#20 Denver — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
#21 Pittsburgh — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
#22 LA Chargers — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
#23 Green Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
#24 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
#26 LA Rams — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
#27 Baltimore — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
#28 Detroit — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
#29 Washington — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
#30 Buffalo — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
#31 NY Giants (v/KC) — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
#32 Philadelphia — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)

Round two

#33 Cleveland — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
#34 Kansas City (v/NYG) — Josh Conerly (T, Oregon)
#35 Tennessee — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
#36 Jacksonville — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
#37 Las Vegas — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
#38 New England — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
#40 New Orleans — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
#41 Chicago — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
#42 NY Jets — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
#43 San Francisco — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
#44 Dallas — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
#45 Indianapolis — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
#46 Atlanta — Grey Zabel (G/C, North Dakota State)
#47 Arizona — Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
#48 Miami — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
#49 Cincinnati — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
#50 Seattle — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
#51 Denver — Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
#52 Pittsburgh — Isaiah Bond (WR, Texas)
#53 Tampa Bay — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
#54 Green Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
#55 LA Chargers — Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
#58 Houston — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
#59 Baltimore — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
#60 Detroit — Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
#61 Washington — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
#62 Buffalo — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
#63 Kansas City — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
#64 Philadelphia — Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)

Vital statistics: What you need to know about the quarterbacks in the 2025 draft

Over the last two days we looked at the data for offensive and defensive linemen. Today, it’s the turn of the quarterbacks…

I have collected different data points and displayed them here for the purpose of discussion. Nothing below proves any player will be good or bad at the next level. Information about third downs isn’t available to the public, neither is completion percentage when scrambling. So this is an incomplete picture. I still think there’s some interesting stuff here.

Big time throws in 2024

Kyle McCord — 36
Cam Ward — 31
Jaxson Dart — 30
Seth Henigan — 30
Shedeur Sanders — 26
Will Howard — 22
Tyler Shough — 21
Quinn Ewers — 20
Kurtis Rourke — 19
Jalen Milroe — 18
Riley Leonard — 18
Dillon Gabriel — 15
Brady Cook — 13
Max Brosmer — 13

Turnover worthy plays in 2024

Kyle McCord — 24
Quinn Ewers — 21
Cam Ward — 18
Will Howard — 15
Jaxson Dart — 11
Seth Henigan — 11
Kurtis Rourke — 10
Jalen Milroe — 10
Riley Leonard — 10
Shedeur Sanders — 8
Tyler Shough — 8
Dillon Gabriel — 8
Max Brosmer — 8
Brady Cook — 4

From these two sets of data, it’s clear that Kyle McCord played with a ‘go big or go home’ mentality in 2024. He threw by far the most big time throws and turnover worthy plays. This is difficult to analyse. Can you coach him to pick his moments and still remain an explosive passer, while reducing the risky throws? Or are we just going to see a player who is a turnover machine at the next level, when the difficulty level to deliver big time throws increases?

One thing in McCord’s favour is he had easily the shortest amount of time to throw (2.41 seconds) in the group. Kurtis Rourke (2.56) and Quinn Ewers (2.59) were next. McCord threw 11 big time throws when considered ‘under pressure’ compared to nine turnover worthy plays. We’ll dig into those numbers in more detail in a moment.

This highlights how challenging Ewers found the 2024 season. Having 20 big time throws compared to 21 turnover worthy plays is problematic. It’s worth noting he played in the difficult SEC but there were several instances where Ewers threw frustratingly risky passes, locked on to his primary read and looked scrambled in the head.

The injuries no doubt played a part. Suffering with abdomen and ankle issues isn’t conducive with excellent quarterback play. It’s a valid excuse but also a concern. Ewers never stayed healthy in college. He looks light in the frame and teams will worry about his durability.

There is one important thing to acknowledge. Seven of his 2024 turnover worthy plays occurred in one game against Georgia, when he’d just returned from injury. On that day the Georgia front seven dominated Texas up front. In the SEC Championship rematch and three subsequent playoff — all against strong opponents — Ewers’ ratio of BTT/TWP was a healthier 11/6.

Here’s a +/- breakdown for big time throws vs turnover worthy plays:

Jaxson Dart — 19
Seth Henigan — 19
Shedeur Sanders — 18
Cam Ward — 13
Tyler Shough — 13
Kyle McCord — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 9
Brady Cook — 9
Jalen Milroe — 8
Riley Leonard — 8
Will Howard — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Max Brosmer — 5
Quinn Ewers — -1

When highlighted like this, it really emphasises how bad this area is for Ewers. Even if you generously wanted to acknowledge the difficult situation in the first Georgia game and halved the number of turnover worthy plays, he’d still be at the bottom of the list.

The season prior — a healthier season, albeit one played in the BIG-12 instead of the SEC — Ewers threw 16 big time passes compared to eight turnover worthy plays. That might be more reflective of who he is. Even still, his +8 mark from 2023 is still towards the bottom of the list above.

Like many people, I’ve been wondering why Jaxson Dart is suddenly being promoted in the media after a non-spectacular Senior Bowl. This article overall might help explain why. Lane Kiffin’s scheme is difficult to project for the NFL. However, Dart clearly did a good job making big plays with his arm without throwing a lot of risky passes. There’s a lot more on Dart to come.

Seth Henigan’s small hands (8 7/8 inches) are a disappointment because he had a record-breaking career at Memphis and out of all the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl he played best in the game. The competition level was weaker in the AAC but the numbers are good above. Likewise, Shedeur Sanders excels.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (+/- BTT vs TWP)

Michael Penix Jr — 32
Drake Maye — 26
Jayden Daniels — 22
Jaxson Dart — 19
Seth Henigan — 19
Shedeur Sanders — 18
Bo Nix — 15
Cam Ward — 13
Tyler Shough — 13
Kyle McCord — 12
Caleb Williams — 9
JJ McCarthy — 9
Spencer Rattler — 1

As good as Dart is in this area relative to the 2025 class, his +19 mark is some way behind Penix Jr and Maye. He’s sandwiched between Daniels and Nix, so is Sanders. That’s good company to keep given their rookie performances.

+/- BTT vs TWP under pressure in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 4
Kyle McCord — 2
Shedeur Sanders — 2
Brady Cook — 2
Max Brosmer — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1
Dillon Gabriel — 1
Tyler Shough — 0
Jalen Milroe — -1
Seth Henigan — -1
Cam Ward — -3
Riley Leonard — -3
Quinn Ewers — -5
Will Howard — -6

This is where it gets worse for Ewers. Under pressure, he was unable to deliver big throws and turned the ball over. It’s even worse for Will Howard. You can see Dart at the top of the list again. This could be another reason why teams are projecting him early. Do they see a superior ability than his peers to deliver a good amount of explosive passes, even when under pressure ?

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (+/- BTT vs TWP under pressure)

Michael Penix Jr — 9
Jaxson Dart — 4
Bo Nix — 4
Jayden Daniels — 3
Drake Maye — 2
Kyle McCord — 2
Shedeur Sanders — 2
JJ McCarthy — 1
Spencer Rattler — -1
Cam Ward — -3
Caleb Williams — -6

It really speaks to Penix Jr’s arm talent that he was able to deliver the numbers he did in this category. Once again, Dart is in the same kind of range as Nix and Daniels. I wouldn’t read too much into Caleb Williams being in the same ugly area as Ewers and Howard. Williams brought about NCAA-leading amounts of pressure upon himself. That was his game.

Passer rating (NFL version) on play action in 2024

Kurtis Rourke — 147.5
Will Howard — 140.8
Seth Henigan — 136.4
Jaxson Dart — 134.3
Cam Ward — 132.7
Kyle McCord — 125.6
Riley Leonard — 123.0
Shedeur Sanders — 118.9
Jalen Milroe — 112.2
Tyler Shough — 111.8
Quinn Ewers — 108.2
Dillon Gabriel — 107.8
Brady Cook — 106.8
Max Brosmer — 101.5

For a system like Seattle’s where play-action is likely to be featured going forward, the results above are pretty good across the board. You’d expect that — play-action is supposed to challenge a defense.

The two names at the top really stand out. Kurtis Rourke is fantastic on play-action and Will Howard also scores very highly.

I’ve long thought Rourke could excel as a later round pick in the Shanahan system. The Seahawks now operate that offense. He doesn’t have a great arm but he’s also shown an ability to throw accurately to most levels, without great protection at Indiana (second worst time to throw among these QB’s). I think his ball-placement, especially on difficult layered passes to the sideline, is a highlight.

His ACL injury, however, is problematic for his draft stock. It could rule him out of his first training camp and maybe even his full rookie campaign. You’re basically pressing pause on his development until he’s healthy. Will he be drafted? If not, adding him as an UDFA for a redshirt season could be a wise move.

It’s a more positive mark for Howard given the situation with turnover worthy plays against pressure. However, with all of the quarterbacks performing well in play-action — I’m not sure there’s that much to glean from this.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (Passer rating on play action)

Jayden Daniels — 158.3
Kurtis Rourke — 147.5
Bo Nix — 142.1
Will Howard — 140.8
Seth Henigan — 136.4
Michael Penix Jr — 134.8
Jaxson Dart — 134.3
Cam Ward — 132.7
JJ McCarthy — 131.7
Kyle McCord — 125.6
Riley Leonard — 123.0
Spencer Rattler — 122.8
Shedeur Sanders — 118.9
Caleb Williams — 113.5
Drake Maye — 98.7

Maye struggled in this area and is below anyone in the 2025 group. It clearly didn’t impact his stock — the Patriots either didn’t care or felt other aspects within his game were more important. Dart is in the same range as Penix Jr, with Rourke and Howard either side of Nix. Nobody is close to Daniels, who had a perfect passer rating using play-action in his final year at LSU.

Big time throws on play action in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 23
Kyle McCord — 17
Tyler Shough — 11
Will Howard — 9
Shedeur Sanders — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 7
Cam Ward — 5
Seth Henigan — 5
Quinn Ewers — 5
Jalen Milroe — 5
Riley Leonard — 4
Dillon Gabriel — 4
Max Brosmer — 3
Brady Cook — 1

Rourke and Howard scored best when operating play-action. However, Jaxson Dart made considerably more dynamic throws after play-fakes.

With virtually ever data point we’ve brought up so far, Dart has been the one who consistently stands out. Again, this might explain some of the chatter that has Dart challenging Sanders to be QB2 in the media (Todd McShay, who is very connected, has been making this point recently). The statistics we’ve shown so far also paint a case for Kyle McCord, another player some sections of the media rate higher than I do.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (BTT’s on play action)

Jaxson Dart — 23
Michael Penix Jr — 18
Kyle McCord — 17
Tyler Shough — 11
Will Howard — 9
Drake Maye — 7
JJ McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 7
Shedeur Sanders — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 7
Cam Ward — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Jayden Daniels — 5
Spencer Rattler — 4

Dart blows the competition out of the water here too. Plus, despite Daniels’ perfect passer rating, he didn’t make many big plays downfield off play-action. There is one thing to think about though…

Screen passes thrown in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 55
Riley Leonard — 51
Shedeur Sanders — 39
Cam Ward — 32
Seth Henigan — 27
Max Brosmer — 25
Jalen Milroe — 24
Dillon Gabriel — 22
Brady Cook — 22
Quinn Ewers — 19
Tyler Shough — 18
Kurtis Rourke — 17
Will Howard — 15
Kyle McCord — 15

This is the issue with the Ole Miss offense and another side of the Dart debate. The system utilises a lot of high percentage throws and it can be schematically challenging for a defense to handle the efficiency of the high-percentage stuff combined with the explosive, challenging nature of the shots taken off it.

Dart throwing 40 more screens than Will Howard, despite Ohio State playing three more games, is really something.

I don’t know if this specifically undermines any of the good stats. For example, are they running a ton of screens off play-action, then faking to deep shots, creating a triple-threat? Does that open up shots downfield? Are teams constantly looking for the threat of a screen and cheating up? It feels like something to note — although further data is required to determine whether we can say the scheme is inflating Dart’s numbers.

Sacks created by the quarterback in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 17
Quinn Ewers — 14
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kyle McCord — 8
Max Brosmer — 8
Jaxson Dart — 7
Seth Henigan — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Brady Cook — 7
Will Howard — 6
Riley Leonard — 5
Tyler Shough — 4
Cam Ward — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1

Pressures created by quarterback in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 44
Kyle McCord — 29
Tyler Shough — 27
Quinn Ewers — 26
Seth Henigan — 25
Cam Ward — 21
Riley Leonard — 21
Brady Cook — 19
Dillon Gabriel — 18
Jaxson Dart — 15
Jalen Milroe — 15
Max Brosmer — 12
Will Howard — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 6

Percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 26.2
Quinn Ewers — 23.6
Brady Cook — 23.5
Seth Henigan — 22.1
Tyler Shough — 21.3
Kyle McCord — 21.2
Cam Ward — 18.9
Dillon Gabriel — 18.8
Riley Leonard — 16.7
Jalen Milroe — 15.6
Jaxson Dart — 12.3
Will Howard — 11.5
Max Brosmer — 11
Kurtis Rourke — 9.1

This is one of the reasons why the NFL will have mixed views about Shedeur Sanders. He creates his own problems despite having the best time to throw mark of the 2024 quarterbacks. In the BIG-12 and PAC-12 you can get away with it. The NFL won’t be as forgiving. He must do a better job playing within structure.

Again, Ewers isn’t far behind. You can perhaps justify some of it given he had the third worst time to throw of the quarterbacks. Did he start to feel pressure that wasn’t there? Did his lack of mobility due to the injuries cause a problem?

These aren’t easy questions to answer. Essentially, you are left facing this reality with Ewers. Most of the 2024 data sucks, so how much do you believe in his arm talent and release, plus your system and coaching staff, to grow his play and develop him? The talent is there. Everyone has been anticipating his arrival in the NFL since High School. Yet he didn’t finish his college career as expected, mainly due to more injuries, and now your grade on him will need to reflect how you feel about your ability to develop him and harness his talent and keep him healthy. Some teams are going to say ‘no thanks’. We’ll see how early the others will say, ‘let’s roll the dice’.

When we get to QBR scores, you’ll see that prior to Ewers’ injuries in 2024 he played very well. Towards the end of the season, when healthier, he rapidly improved his performance level. So this could all come down to health.

Ward creating a reasonable amount of pressures on his own but taking only two self-inflicted sacks speaks to his elusiveness. However, he too will need to do a better job not creating problems for himself (specifically drifting backwards and scrambling unnecessarily).

Rourke did a good job getting the ball out quickly at Indiana and the scheme helped. It’s another really good piece of data for Dart. The numbers here reflect well on Will Howard and Max Brosmer too.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (sacks responsible for)

Shedeur Sanders — 17
Caleb Williams — 15
Quinn Ewers — 14
Spencer Rattler — 12
Drake Maye — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kyle McCord — 8
Jayden Daniels — 7
Jaxson Dart — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Will Howard — 6
Michael Penix Jr — 5
Riley Leonard — 5
Tyler Shough — 4
JJ McCarthy — 4
Bo Nix — 4
Cam Ward — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (pressures responsible for)

Shedeur Sanders — 44
Caleb Williams — 39
Drake Maye — 30
Kyle McCord — 29
Michael Penix Jr — 27
Tyler Shough — 27
Quinn Ewers — 26
Spencer Rattler — 22
Cam Ward — 21
Riley Leonard — 21
Bo Nix — 18
Dillon Gabriel — 18
Jayden Daniels — 16
Jaxson Dart — 15
Jalen Milroe — 15
JJ McCarthy — 13
Will Howard — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 6

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (Percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure allowed)

Caleb Williams — 30%
Bo Nix — 28.6%
Shedeur Sanders — 26.2
Drake Maye — 25.6%
Quinn Ewers — 23.6
Michael Penix Jr — 21.4%
Tyler Shough — 21.3
Kyle McCord — 21.2
Cam Ward — 18.9
Dillon Gabriel — 18.8
Jayden Daniels — 18.6%
Riley Leonard — 16.7
Jalen Milroe — 15.6
Spencer Rattler — 13.5%
JJ McCarthy — 13.4%
Jaxson Dart — 12.3
Will Howard — 11.5
Kurtis Rourke — 9.1

It really is something that Sanders created more sacks and pressures for himself than prolific ‘make life difficult’ artist Caleb Williams. Even so, it didn’t stop the Bears taking Williams first overall. The key thing to remember here is that Sanders doesn’t possess anywhere near Williams’ physical gifts.

I was surprised to see Nix and Penix Jr so high on the list of percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure allowed. Daniels and Maye naturally scrambled a lot. Even Cam Ward’s 18.9% looks really favourable compared to this list. The sack-percentage sis another good mark for Dart, who has a better rate than any of the 2024 class, as does Will Howard.

Time to throw in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 3.00
Cam Ward — 2.93
Tyler Shough — 2.93
Jalen Milroe — 2.88
Seth Henigan — 2.84
Riley Leonard — 2.82
Dillon Gabriel — 2.79
Jaxson Dart — 2.78
Max Brosmer — 2.77
Brady Cook — 2.74
Will Howard — 2.66
Quinn Ewers — 2.59
Kurtis Rourke — 2.56
Kyle McCord — 2.41

Despite the general feeling that Sanders has played behind a bad offensive line — he had the most amount of time to throw within the quarterback group. Maybe it’s a coincidence, maybe it’s not, but the two QB’s at the top of this list are the two everyone expects to be drafted early. If you gave some of the other quarterbacks three seconds to throw in the ACC or BIG-12, we might be having a different conversation.

QBR in 2024

Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Brady Cook — 74.0
Quinn Ewers — 71.3
Max Brosmer — 63.4
Seth Henigan — 57.0

If you’re not familiar with the QBR formula, here’s a long explanation on the ESPN website.

As you’ll see below, all of the 2024 quarterbacks taken early scored a 78.8 or above in their final season of college football. There are seven players who achieved at least that in the 2025 class, with Sanders just below.

You can make an argument that whether it’s QBR, strictly EPA or a similar formula created in-house by individual teams, this kind of data is taken seriously by the NFL. As we’ll see in a moment, players scoring well analytically in this area tend to be drafted early. Therefore, the 2025 class having so many strong performers in QBR is probably a positive for this draft class.

This is one of the reasons why I think we’ll see a ‘middle class’ this year with quarterbacks being drafted on day two. I’ve been including Spencer Rattler in all of these lists because as we know, we saw six quarterbacks taken in the top-12 a year ago and then none taken until round five. Rattler lasted well into day three and he was well behind the pace for QBR (65.4)

There may be a reason why some of the 2025 quarterbacks don’t enter the middle class (for example, Dillon Gabriel’s size or Kurtis Rourke’s injury situation) but we also might see the likes of Ewers given the benefit of the doubt, considering his 2023 QBR was a healthier 78.7.

I’m not trying to prop-up Ewers (we’ve discussed the negatives). However, this is what you need to know. In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. In the three games after returning from injury, where he rushed back to face Oklahoma and Georgia, before going to Vanderbilt, his QBR dropped dramatically to a 55.4. He didn’t look right at all. Clearly health had a big impact on his play.

The biggest question mark for his projection to the next level will be his ability to avoid significant injuries. He has shown, when healthy, what he can do. Staying healthy has been the problem though.

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and include his 2023 QBR in the comparisons below, just so we can project a healthier player.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (QBR)

Jayden Daniels — 95.7
Bo Nix — 91.0
JJ McCarthy — 89.2
Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Michael Penix Jr — 83.4
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Caleb Williams — 82.3
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Drake Maye — 78.8
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Spencer Rattler — 65.4

While nobody scores as highly as Daniels and Nix did, I do think the 2025 class grading comparatively well is a positive sign. I think this is further evidence for anyone wanting to make the case that Cam Ward will be QB1 and Jaxson Dart will be QB2.

Let’s go one year further back…

Comparison to the 2023 draft class (QBR)

Hendon Hooker — 89.4
Cam Ward — 88.0
CJ Stroud — 87.7
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Bryce Young — 83.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Anthony Richardson — 70.6
Will Levis — 60.4

Hooker’s chances of settling into a productive NFL career were hampered by a bad injury towards the end of his final college season. Stroud has performed well while Young started to improve in year two. Richardson and Levis have both struggled. The 2023 quarterback class builds a strong case for paying attention to QBR as a projection tool.

Before we rush off and take the scores as gospel though, let’s look at the 2022 group…

Comparison to the 2022 draft class (QBR)

Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Kenny Pickett — 81.2
Matt Corral — 80.5
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Bailey Zappe — 78.6
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Sam Howell — 76.1
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Desmond Ridder — 71.9
Malik Willis — 70.0
Brock Purdy — 70.0

Pickett was the only quarterback taken in round one, so perhaps his QBR score played a role in convincing the Steelers to take an ill-advised plunge? We know that Zappe and Howell are limited, yet they scored quite well. Issues off the field prevented Corral from having much of a shot in the NFL.

Although it more or less projects Ridder and Willis correctly, Purdy being at the bottom here — despite having the best career by far — does spoil the legitimacy of the data. Or does it? I’d argue Purdy is a rarity — someone who probably wouldn’t have succeeded working with any other offensive coordinator. He is perfect for Kyle Shanahan.

With Kubiak being a Shanahan disciple, it’s also possible the Seahawks will similarly identify a player who isn’t blowing up the QBR rankings but fits what they need their quarterback to do. I do think it’s a unique situation. Purdy the player was an ideal fit for the 49ers.

It’s further evidence QBR is useful for projection because at the end of the day, Purdy lasted to the final pick in round seven with a weaker score.

The final list I want to show you might be the most telling. Here’s a list of all the players taken between 2021-2024 with a QBR above 80 and where they were drafted:

Jayden Daniels — First round
Bo Nix — First round
JJ McCarthy — First round
Michael Penix Jr — First round
Caleb Williams — First round
Kenny Pickett — First round
CJ Stroud — First round
Bryce Young — First round
Mac Jones — First round
Justin Fields — First round
Zach Wilson — First round
Trevor Lawrence — First round
Kyle Trask — Second round
Hendon Hooker — Third round (injury)
Matt Corral — Third round (character flags)
Ian Book — Fourth round (physical limitations)

That’s 12 first round picks, three day-two picks and an early day three pick.

Again, this doesn’t mean the quarterbacks with a +80 QBR this year (Ward, Gabriel, Rourke, Dart, Howard & Milroe) are destined to be high picks. Yet over the last few drafts, there has been a correlation between QBR and a higher draft placing. Even Ian Book going in the fourth round, as opposed to later on is a sign given his limited physical prowess as a passer.

With others (Leonard, Sanders & McCord) also producing decent scores and Ewers also showing well when he was healthier in 2023, I would imagine we will see a cluster of quarterbacks selected by the end of round four.

If you’re wondering about QBR scores for NFL quarterbacks, here’s the list for 2024. Geno Smith ranked 21st, just above Russell Wilson. He was 14th in 2023.

EPA in 2024

EPA stands for ‘Expected Points Added’ — a statistic that measures performance on each play. It’s a play-by-play metric that takes into account factors like down, distance, and time remaining.

Cam Ward — 103.2
Kyle McCord — 94.1
Dillon Gabriel — 89.7
Shedeur Sanders — 82.8
Jaxson Dart — 78.5
Kurtis Rourke — 62.1
Riley Leonard — 61.2
Jalen Milroe — 60.5
Will Howard — 56.8
Tyler Shough — 53.9
Seth Henigan — 51.9
Brady Cook — 40.9
Max Brosmer — 34.0
Quinn Ewers — 31.4

Several players regressed from the year prior. Ewers’ 2023 EPA was a 78.7 (perhaps again speaking to the impact of injuries in 2024). Milroe dropped from an 83.6, Howard from a 75.3 and Brady Cook fell from a 77.2.

EPA on pass attempts with low leverage plays down-weighted in 2024

This data point reduces the value of plays occurring in situations with low leverage (eg — early in the game with a big lead or deficit), giving less weight to their impact on the overall analysis compared to high-leverage plays where the outcome of the game is more significantly affected.

Kyle McCord — 101.1
Shedeur Sanders — 93.2
Cam Ward — 89.4
Dillon Gabriel — 83.7
Jaxson Dart — 78.9
Kurtis Rourke — 74.0
Will Howard — 64.3
Tyler Shough — 61.1
Seth Henigan — 54.8
Quinn Ewers — 47.0
Jalen Milroe — 43.2
Max Brosmer — 42.4
Brady Cook — 39.5
Riley Leonard — 35.8

Ward drops 13.8 points in the second list, with Sanders gaining 10.4. Leonard drops a sizeable 25.4 points when you reduce the impact of low-value plays from the equation.

This is a strong result for Kyle McCord, especially when you compare it to the 2024 quarterback class…

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (EPA/PASS)

Kyle McCord — 101.1
Bo Nix — 96.1
Shedeur Sanders — 93.2
Jayden Daniels — 92.9
Cam Ward — 89.4
Michael Penix Jr — 84.1
Dillon Gabriel — 83.7
Jaxson Dart — 78.9
Caleb Williams — 75.5
Kurtis Rourke — 74.0
JJ McCarthy — 65.6
Will Howard — 64.3
Tyler Shough — 61.1
Spencer Rattler — 59.0
Drake Maye — 58.9

This would seem quite indicative but it’s also worth noting the EPA/PASS marks for the 2023 class were weak across the board:

Hendon Hooker — 71.9
CJ Stroud — 66.8
Bryce Young — 59.7
Will Levis — 49.9
Anthony Richardson — 24.5

These scores didn’t stop teams drafting these players early, nor has Stroud’s score stopped him enjoying a good start to his pro-career. I would imagine those focusing on analytics will be quite strong on McCord as the process develops.

Random stats & notes

I’ve not been able to run through all the quarterbacks here and find standout statistics for each. I do have some info that I researched when discussing the fit of Howard, Leonard and Ewers in Seattle, plus I have a few notes on Dart, that I wanted to share…

Will Howard

— His QBR average in the four playoff games was a near perfect 96.4, while his NFL passer rating was 126.8. When the games mattered the most, Howard delivered. This has to matter to teams. Ohio State also had exactly 50% conversions on third downs in the playoffs — with their quarterback completing some excellent passes on money downs.

— For all the talk of Howard benefitting from Ohio State’s loaded roster as they won the National Championship, it’s also worth noting that he led Kansas State to the BIG-12 title in 2022. The Wildcats have only won a conference Championship three times since the turn of the century.

— Against the blitz in 2024, Howard had a completion percentage of 75.2% — throwing 15 touchdowns and just one interception. So while he might’ve struggled generally under pressure, he ate up the blitz. This perhaps speaks to his experience (50 career games).

Riley Leonard

— His QBR average in Notre Dame’s four playoff games was a decent 76.7. It’s not the same standard as Howard’s performance — yet the Irish were not expected to beat Georgia or Penn State. They did — and his QBR in those two games, plus the Ohio State finale, was a 79.8. It’s impressive.

— Leonard is a potential difference maker as a runner. For example, he had 25 runs of +10 yards in 2024. In comparison, Jalen Milroe had 30. Leonard also had 551 yards after contact (Milroe 433), 42 missed tackles forced (Milroe 32) and 17 rushing touchdowns (Milroe 20). He’s not just a mobile quarterback — he possesses legit talent as a runner and that can be utilised at the next level.

Quinn Ewers

— His QBR average in Texas’ three playoff games was an impressive 82.7.

— In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. This is why I’m kind of willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his overall 2024 QBR — it was clearly impacted by playing through the two injuries.

Jaxson Dart

— If you want even more evidence as to why Dart might be rated highly, aside from his high number of big time throws, low turnover worthy passes, ability to handle pressure and QBR — he’s also a productive runner. He had 28 runs of +10 yards — three more than Leonard and two fewer than Milroe. He recorded 312 yards after contact as a ball-carrier and he forced 22 missed tackles.

Final thoughts

I can understand why there are mixed opinions about this class. No one player stands out above the rest physically. I’m convinced the teams picking in the top-10 would rather not take a quarterback. If the likes of the Browns, Giants, Raiders and Jets can acquire a veteran option I think they will. Some will be inclined to wait until day two to select a rookie.

The data shows why the likes of Will Howard, Quinn Ewers and Riley Leonard might not have teams like Seattle rushing to call the pick in. I’m relaxing my position that the Seahawks might take one of them in round two and think they are more likely to wait and see what’s available in round three at pick #82.

In that round, it’s easier to make a case to take Howard for his play-action ability and prolific playoff run at Ohio State. You can build an argument for taking a lower-risk gamble on Ewers’ ability to stay healthy — with development the motivation behind the pick rather than guaranteed ascension. This could be a good opportunity to land someone with clear natural talent who otherwise wouldn’t last to round three, letting him sit and develop while you create a better environment to keep him healthy (aka, building a good offensive line). That would be ‘chasing an edge’ as Mike Macdonald would put it. Leonard’s athleticism and developmental potential also becomes more enamouring in round three.

Kurtis Rourke could be a good scheme fit and worthy of a priority free agent shot, given his injury status. I will spend more time this week reviewing Kyle McCord, although my initial review was that I just can’t see him as a next-level starter.

However, putting this article together tells me it’s time to take Jaxson Dart more seriously — even if it’s just in terms of projecting where he’ll be drafted.

The information in this article was eye-opening. It has to be balanced off with the fact he had an opportunity to drive Ole Miss into the playoffs and blew it against Florida, throwing two interceptions on potential game-winning drives (with a third pick called back). This is the same Florida team that Texas hammered 49-17 two weeks earlier, with Quinn Ewers throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions and recording a 92.7 QBR.

Ole Miss had a lot of talent in 2024. Howard, Leonard and Ewers did more to drive their teams into and through the playoffs.

Nevertheless, Jayden Daniels only led LSU to a 10-3 season in his final year in college. He had Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr to throw to. Funnily enough, one of LSU’s three losses was a shoot-out 55-49 defeat to Ole Miss with both Daniels and Dart scoring five touchdowns. Therefore, I don’t think we should overreact too much to college records and results. Bo Nix couldn’t beat Washington either and Drake Maye’s North Carolina lost 10 games in his two years as a starter.

Dart has a lot of persuasive data working in his favour. He might, after all, be a player to keep an eye on — not just for the Seahawks but also as someone who will go earlier than I previously thought.

I do think there are quarterbacks in this draft who can be a Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy if they go to the right team, system and offensive leader. You might scoff at that suggestion, given both players have been to three combined Super Bowls (winning one). Let’s not forget that prior to his Senior Bowl and combine, Hurts was seen as a fourth round type with little prospect of starting in the NFL. Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant in his draft.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that one or more of these quarterbacks will go to the right home and eventually start and succeed with a good supporting cast. They’re not going to be franchise-changers like Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels but this isn’t a useless class either, devoid of upside. Several have excellent character backgrounds and leadership qualities too.

My hope for the Seahawks is they can identify one or more who fit the Klint Kubiak offense and bring them in. I think they will achieve this and I still believe this will be the year where the Seahawks draft a quarterback.

This article, plus the two others in the series on offensive and defensive linemen, can be found in the ‘key articles’ tab in the site menu

Vital statistics: What you need to know for the free agent & draftable defensive linemen

Yesterday I went into into the offensive line data and tomorrow I’ll focus on the quarterbacks. Today it’s the turn of the defensive linemen…

I think the Seahawks are far more likely to make a significant D-line addition in the draft, rather than in the free agent market. However, it’s worth looking at what’s out there and having the data to hand ahead of free agency.

Pass rush win percentages (free agency)

EDGE

Baron Browning — 16.4%
Khalil Mack — 14.5%
Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
K’Lavon Chaisson — 12.8%
Anthony Nelson — 11.5%
Dante Fowler Jr — 10.1%
Carl Lawson — 9.4%
Joseph Ossai — 9.3%
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka — 8.9%
Azeez Ojulari — 8.4%
Haason Reddick — 7.6%
Patrick Jones — 6.7%
Matt Judon — 6.2%
Emmanuel Ogbah — 5.4%

Inside/out

Milton Williams — 17.6%
Osa Odighizuwa — 15.1%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%
LJ Collier — 7.8%

Defensive tackle

Teair Tart — 11.4%
Calais Campbell — 10.8%
Javon Kinlaw — 10.5%
BJ Hill — 8.4%
Poona Ford — 7.7%
DJ Jones — 6.9%
Bobby Brown III — 4.1%

As you can see, this isn’t a loaded group. Milton Williams will get a big pay-day. He has a terrific win percentage, he’s at a great age (25) and a strong Super Bowl performance will help his cause. Osa Odighizuwa could also get a handsome contract. Both players excelled in terms of pressures forced (Odighizuwa 60, Williams 54) ranking 24th and 35th respectively among all defensive linemen (EDGE, DE or DT).

In terms of win-percentage, there’s no impact edge rusher or game-changing defensive tackle (and you wouldn’t expect there to be — those players rarely reach free agency). The one player who might interest some teams is Chase Young. He’s had a strange career, blighted by injuries and concerns about his effort/attitude. The feeling was Washington couldn’t wait to move on and the 49ers didn’t re-sign him either.

He had a seven-sack season for the Saints with a strong 66 pressures (joint most among free agents with Josh Sweat). His win-percentage of 13.7% is decent, not great. He’s only 25 though and Trey Hendrickson was a bit of a late bloomer — turning it on in his final season in New Orleans with 13.5 sacks. Henderson’s win-percentage was only 12.1% and he had 50 pressures. Young still has a chance to realise his potential but I’m not convinced it’ll be in Seattle.

For comparisons sake, Myles Garrett had a 2024 win-percentage of 23.1%, Micah Parsons’ was 20.2%, Hendrickson and Nick Bosa were at 20%, Jared Verse (19.7%) and Chop Robinson (18.8%) were both high-impact rookies and Chris Jones (18.8%) had another productive year.

The Seahawks do not currently have a player of this caliber on their line, as you can see from their win-percentage scores:

Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Leonard Williams — 11.6%
Boye Mafe — 11%
Jarran Reed — 10.7%
Byron Murphy — 10%
Derick Hall — 8.5%

This will probably not change through free agency — but it’s why they need to be mindful of any big trade opportunities that might emerge. If they can acquire a star, they should try to make that happen. Adding an elite pass-rusher should turn this unit into one of the best in the NFL.

Mafe and Hall contributed 47 and 45 pressures respectively in 2024. Williams generated 55, Reed 48 and Jones 45. The Seahawks spread their pressures out, which might be a theme under Mike Macdonald. They ranked seventh for pressures, so I’d suggest two things:

1. Acquiring an expensive defensive lineman at this stage should only be limited to a truly elite player, such as a big splash for a Garrett/Parsons/Crosby type if made available, not for someone who can simply operate within a system that clearly does a good job sharing the wealth.

2. There’s nothing wrong with adding a value veteran if the market comes to you but in terms of pass-rush and pressuring opponents — they might be better off waiting until the second round of the draft. As we’ll discuss later, pick #50 is in a sweet-spot for D-liners.

It’s interesting that Dre’Mont Jones’ pass-rush production is similar to a lot of the alternatives on the market. His win-percentage also led the Seahawks in 2024, above even Leonard Williams.

Pressure comparisons

Milton Williams — 54
Khalil Mack — 52
Levi Onwuzurike — 47
Dre’Mont Jones — 45
Dayo Odeyingbo — 42

Win-percentage comparisons

Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%

This might mean the Seahawks can flip him for a pick (it won’t be much) rather than outright cutting him. Or, they might decide that it’s better to try and get him to take a pay-cut rather than absorb a $14m dead-hit to let him play somewhere else. This is easily achievable according to Curtis Allen, because none of his $16m salary this year is guaranteed.

That said, John Schneider’s answer last week on Seattle Sports about the danger of ‘paying for the wrong players’ might’ve been a reference to Jones, who has underwhelmed as a big free agent signing. It’ll be an expensive parting if they outright move on, with an $11.6m saving alongside the $14m dead-cap hit.

Run defense

Mike Macdonald often speaks about creating a run-wall. The Seahawks ranked 16th in opponent rushing yards per game in 2024 but in their final three games they ranked sixth. It did feel as if they made a turn during the season, once they’d swapped out their linebackers.

Bringing back Ernest Jones is necessary to maintain their performance but they can also improve on the defensive line.

Leonard Williams (10.7%), Byron Murphy (7.6%) and Jarran Reed (7.5%) all have solid percentages for plays they are responsible for stopping the run. Dre’Mont Jones (4.1%) struggled in this area and Johnathan Hankins (7.1%) was OK — but you’d expect more from a pure run-stuffer like Hankins.

There are four key interior players they could add to upgrade their run defense. Calais Campbell led the NFL with a remarkable 15.9% run-stop responsibility percentage in 2024. That he’s still performing at this level at 38-years-old is highly impressive. It’s a crushing disappointment that he’ll likely never play in Seattle, possibly due to a preference not to play for another NFC West team. He would be a great signing for Seattle’s run-D though and if there’s any chance at all of prolonging his career one more year, they should ask the question.

30-year-old DJ Jones doesn’t have the typical tools of a quality run defender due to his short arms but his lack of height enables him to win with leverage to the tune of an 11.3% run-stop responsibility percentage. Another former 49er — Sebastian Joseph-Day — had a 10.4% mark in 2024, with BJ Hill at 9.3%. These are the best options to elevate Seattle’s run defense from the interior.

None of the inside/out rushers excelled here. However, Minnesota’s edge rusher Patrick Jones had an incredibly impressive 13.8% run-stop responsibility percentage.

Pass rush win percentages (draft)

EDGE

Josaiah Stewart — 27.1%
Princely Umanmielen — 22.8%
James Pearce — 22.7%
Abdul Carter — 22.6%
Bradyn Swinson — 22.1%
David Walker — 21%
Ashton Gillotte — 20.9%
Mike Green — 20.1%
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 18.2%
Kaimon Rucker — 18.1%
Jack Sawyer — 17.7%
Nic Scourton — 17.4%
Jalon Walker — 17.2%
Barryn Sorrell — 13.6%
Kyle Kennard — 13.1%
JT Tuimoloau — 12.3%
Landon Jackson — 11.5%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 10.5%
Davin Vann — 10.1%

Inside/Out

Aeneas Peebles — 17.7%
Jared Ivey — 16.8%
Jordan Burch — 15.7%
Sai’vion Jones — 15.1%
Darius Alexander — 12.8%
Shemar Stewart — 12.4%
Mykel Williams — 11%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 7.2%

Defensive tackle

Omarr Norman-Lott — 18.9%
Derrick Harmon — 17.6%
Rylie Mills — 14.3%
Mason Graham — 13.8%
TJ Sanders — 12.6%
Walter Nolen — 10.9%
Jordan Phillips — 10.5%
Ty Robinson — 10.4%
Deone Walker — 10.3%
Jamaree Caldwell — 9.6%
Joshua Farmer — 9.4%
Kenneth Grant — 9.4%
JJ Pegues — 9.3%
Alfred Collins — 7.3%
Junior Tafuna — 7.3%
Tyleik Williams — 7%
Cam Jackson — 6.8%
Shemar Turner — 6.2%
Yahya Black — 5.8%
Ty Hamilton — 4.9%

Pressures (draft)

EDGE

Abdul Carter — 66
Jack Sawyer — 64
Bradyn Swinson — 60
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 60
Mike Green — 59
Ashton Gillotte — 57
Princely Umanmielen — 55
James Pearce — 55
David Walker — 55
JT Tuimoloau — 51
Barryn Sorrell — 49
Kyle Kennard — 39
Josaiah Stewart — 37 (missed time)
Nic Scourton — 36
Landon Jackson — 35
Jalon Walker — 34 (hybrid)
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 33
Kaimon Rucker — 31 (missed time)
Davin Vann — 26

Inside/Out

Sai’vion Jones — 43
Jared Ivey — 40
Shemar Stewart — 39
Darius Alexander — 37
Aeneas Peebles — 37
Jordan Burch — 32
Mykel Williams — 26 (missed time)
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 19

Defensive tackle

Derrick Harmon — 55
Ty Robinson — 42
Walter Nolen — 35
Mason Graham — 34
Rylie Mills — 34
TJ Sanders — 33
JJ Pegues — 31
Kenneth Grant — 27
Omarr Norman-Lott — 27
Joshua Farmer — 26
Jamaree Caldwell — 25
Deone Walker — 22
Tyleik Williams — 21
Shemar Turner — 21
Ty Hamilton — 19
Alfred Collins — 18
Cam Jackson — 16
Jordan Phillips — 16
Yahya Black — 13
Junior Tafuna — 13

LSU edge rusher Bradyn Swinson is being massively slept on. His 60 pressures in 2024 were second only to Abdul Carter (66) and Jack Sawyer (64). It’s worth noting that nobody had more pressures in the college football season. An incredible 21 of Sawyer’s pressures came in his four extra playoff games. He had 43 in the regular season. Carter recorded 10 pressures in two playoff games. In the regular season, he had 56 pressures. This really highlights just how productive Swinson was in 2024.

Jared Verse had only two more pressures (62) in his final year at Florida State, while TJ Watt and Maxx Crosby both had 57 in their last seasons of college football.

Boye Mafe had 42 pressures before entering the draft and a win-percentage of 15.8%. Derick Hall had 47 pressures and a win-percentage of 14%.

Swinson’s win-percentage of 22.1% is only 0.5% lower than Abdul Carter’s. I don’t think there’s a drop-off between the LSU rusher and the Green/Pearce/Ezeiruaku grouping. He’s so quick off the edge and once he bends the arc, his closing speed is frightening. He’s long and has shown the ability to keep his frame clean on contact and win with power. His effort and motor are impressive and he has the kind of character and personality that hints at star quality. Of all the edge rushers expected to be in range for the Seahawks, Swinson might be the one I’m most intrigued by. Testing is critical but at the moment he looks like a strong option at #50 to add an EDGE with a bit more juice than they currently have.

Then there’s his team-mate Sai’vion Jones. Difference-making inside/out rushers can be a game-changer. Among all of the players capable of playing inside/out, Jones has the most pressures (43). He’s a three-sport athlete (basketball, track & field, football) with great size (6-6, 280lbs) and good length (33.5 inch arms). He’s expected to run an estimated 4.70 forty. He has a lot of potential — with four more pressures than Shemar Stewart and an edge in win-percentage (15.1%
vs 12.4%). He also scores higher defending the run (more on that in a bit). Jones might be a better second round option than the likes of Stewart are in round one.

Josaiah Stewart’s pass-rush win percentage of 27.1%
clearly stands out. He’s one to monitor, given how beloved he is by Wink Martindale at Michigan (Mike Macdonald is a protege of Martindale’s). Injury limited his number of pressures collected but he wrecked the game against USC and flashed when he was on the field. Again, testing will be important given his lack of ideal height and length.

At defensive tackle, Ty Robinson (who I interviewed recently) had the second most pressures (42) at his position plus the second most sacks among defensive tackles in college football (seven). He has the aggressive playing style, quickness, relentless motor and driven attitude to be an excellent pro. I’m intrigued to see how quick (10-yard split) and explosive (vertical broad) he is and whether he runs a short shuttle at the combine.

Darius Alexander’s numbers are solid across the board. He stood out at the Senior Bowl and showed in flashes on tape at Toledo. It’s not an overreaction to say he gives off a ‘Chris Jones’ vibe. The chances are he won’t be Jones but seeing him beat Josh Conerly Jr off the edge at his favoured spot of left tackle was a sight to behold at 304lbs. Let’s see how he tests. Jones’ win-percentage (16.7%) and pressure numbers (49) in his final season at Mississippi State are far better than Alexander’s (12.8% and 37). Plus he came up against superior competition in the SEC. Alexander might not have elite potential but he has disruptive qualities.

Derrick Harmon and Omar Norman-Lott have terrific win-percentages as pass-rushers. However, their run-stopping responsibility (which we’ll talk about next) is comparatively very low. Teams will need to work out whether they are mostly one-dimensional role players, whether they can round into something more complete or whether the pass-rush production even translates to the NFL. Neither has a prototypical frame.

Rylie Mills is a dynamic athlete and he ramped up his production in 2024. He picked up an injury and missed most of Notre Dame’s playoff run. We’ll see if he’s healthy for the combine. If he is and he tests — he’ll be a name to remember who could rise.  Having the third best win-percentage (14.3%) among defensive tackles certainly helps.

Aeneas Peebles’ 17.7% win percentage as an inside/out rusher is very appealing and he flashed at the Senior Bowl. However, he lacks length (6-0, 31 3/4 inch arms) for a player who is 289lbs. That could impact his stock.

Run stop percentage (responsible for the stop)

EDGE

Donovan Ezeiruaku — 10.1%
James Pearce — 10.1%
Mike Green — 9.4%
Landon Jackson — 9.3%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 9.3%
David Walker — 9.2%
Jalon Walker — 8.7%
Princely Umanmielen — 8.6%
Kaimon Rucker — 8.5%
Josaiah Stewart — 8.3%
JT Tuimoloau — 7.8%
Abdul Carter — 7.6%
Nic Scourton — 7.3%
Ashton Gillotte — 6.9%
Bradyn Swinson — 5.8%
Davin Vann — 5.4%
Jack Sawyer — 5.1%
Barryn Sorrell — 5.1%
Kyle Kennard — 3.8%

Inside/out

Darius Alexander — 7.9%
Sai’vion Jones — 7.7%
Mykel Williams — 7.6%
Jared Ivey — 6.6%
Aeneas Peebles — 6.3%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 6.1%
Shemar Stewart — 5.5%
Jordan Burch — 2.9%

Defensive tackle

Mason Graham — 12%
Walter Nolen — 11.9%
Yahya Black — 9.3%
Cam Jackson — 9.3%
JJ Pegues — 8.9%
TJ Sanders — 8.8%
Ty Hamilton — 8.3%
Ty Robinson — 8.1%
Junior Tafuna — 8.1%
Shemar Turner — 7.9%
Kenneth Grant — 7.9%
Tyleik Williams — 7.8%
Jordan Phillips — 7.6%
Jamaree Caldwell — 7.5%
Alfred Collins — 7.4%
Derrick Harmon — 7.1%
Deone Walker — 6.6%
Omarr Norman-Lott — 6%
Rylie Mills — 5.3%
Joshua Farmer — 4.6%

Keep an eye on Donovan Ezeiruaku. On tape he has a better edge-rushing skill-set than most of the other big names. His run-defense responsibility of 10.1% was joint best along with (surprisingly) James Pearce at Tennessee. Testing will be key for him but he has a rounded game, long arms and he’s incredibly consistent. He might not be the Seahawks’ pick at #18 but he could go ahead of some of these other pass rushers. You can get him on the field in year one.

For those interested in Kenneth Grant, it’s worth noting that another big-bodied athlete in JJ Pegues has an almost identical pass-rush win-percentage (0.1% difference), he has more pressures (31 vs 27) and his run-stop responsibility percentage is considerably higher (8.9% vs 7.9%). Grant’s testing might blow Pegues out of the water at the combine, showing off his upside and developmental potential. There’s certainly enough buzz from draft media’s ‘in-the-know’ group to think Grant could be a very high pick once he tests at the combine.

I think his numbers as a pass-rusher and run-blocker, particularly playing next to Mason Graham, are underwhelming. He’s a great athlete at his size, yes, but you were always left wanting more on tape. I’m not sure how much to read into that but I did think there were snaps on tape where he could play with more violence. The athleticism and get-off are freaky but I wanted to see him play with a bit more aggression.

Lance Zierlein has Walter Nolen graded as the fifth best player in the draft currently on NFL.com. We know he’s quick and can rush the passer but his run-stop responsibility percentage is second best in the class at 11.9% — just 0.1% behind Mason Graham. He’s well ahead of the big nose tackles. This might be why he ends up going a fair bit higher than people realise. He clearly has a rounded game. Based on the tape, I’d suggest he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.

Final thoughts

Yesterday I noted how the Seahawks might be banking on a good offensive lineman lasting to #18. A challenging free agency market might leave the Seahawks relying on a top rookie to inject talent into their O-line.

At #50, this draft class is tailor-made to go D-line in round two. This is a really good area to target a defensive lineman. The following players are projected to slot into this part of the draft:

Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Joshua Farmer (DT, Florida State)
Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)
Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)

Others could be available in this range, with players rising and falling after the combine. After further studying the makeup of this class for these articles, I think you can make a compelling argument that the Seahawks will be minded to go O-line in round one and D-line in round two.

Who might they be particularly attracted to at #50? Pre-combine, which will have a big impact on this projection, my guess would be:

Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)

As you can see though, there are a lot of good options here.

Remember, a third of John Schneider’s drafts in Seattle have seen the Seahawks take linemen with the first two picks. I think we could see that again this year.

It could set things up to take a shot on a quarterback in round three. That’ll be the focus of tomorrow’s article.

Vital statistics: What you need to know about the free agent & draftable offensive linemen

Tomorrow I’m going to delve into the defensive line data and on Wednesday it’ll be quarterbacks. Today it’s the turn of the offensive linemen…

Zone blocking free agents

I wanted to identify the best possible scheme fits within the free agent class. However, just looking at zone blocking data for the 2024 season can be deceptive. For example, Evan Neal of the Giants had a 90 grade in zone. He only had 78 zone snaps though. Therefore, I calculated a two-year average in zone for every free agent.

Only eight interior line free agents had a grade above 70:

Drew Dalman — 86.6 (454 snaps)
James Daniels — 79.6 (275 snaps)
Ben Bartch — 79.5 (57 snaps)
Trey Smith — 79.3 (482 snaps)
Kevin Zeitler — 79.2 (462 snaps)
Teven Jenkins — 78.1 (284 snaps)
Will Fries — 76.4 (349 snaps)
Coleman Shelton — 73.0 (309 snaps)

Mekhi Becton (67.3) and Ryan Kelly (66.6) were just on the outside. In case you are wondering, here are the five worst graders in zone:

Daniel Brunskill — 56.4
Ben Bredeson — 54.8
Brandon Scherff — 54.0
Josh Myers — 50.7
Jedrick Wills Jr — 50.4

It’s also possible Garrett Bradbury (74.4) and Trey Pipkins (70.3) could be cap casualties. If the Chiefs were willing to part with Joe Thuney via trade — an unlikely scenario, admittedly — his average grade was a 73.0.

Takeaways

It’s not exactly breaking news but by far the most impactful players the Seahawks could sign in free agency to improve their offensive line are Drew Dalman, Trey Smith and Kevin Zeitler. They all have +400 zone snaps in the last two seasons and have excelled in the scheme.

If only it were as simple as signing a couple of these guys, eh?

Sadly they are likely to be three highly coveted targets, or in the case of Zeitler he might be unprepared at the age of 35 to move to the west coast after a career on the east.

Drew Dalman is the ideal signing in terms of need, scheme fit and age (26). If the Seahawks go all-in on anyone, it probably should be him. With this being such an incredibly thin center class in the draft, most of the league might be interested in Dalman.

The Seahawks would have to pull out all of the stops to acquire him — both financially and in terms of selling the vision of moving to Seattle. This will be extremely difficult. Many expect the 49ers to pursue Dalman. He grew up in California and went to Stanford. You might not be able to compete with geography.

It would be a blow to see him join a division rival, especially if he continues his upward trajectory in his career. I think they have to be prepared to gamble a bit on cost because the fit is so good. Klint Kubiak’s suggestion that they need an elite center for the system to excel underpins the need to be aggressive here. Dalman is a top-five graded center — not just in zone. We’ll see if they can make it happen.

There is something else to note with Dalman. When John Schneider talks about doing a better job identifying and developing players, here is a classic example. Dalman’s overall blocking grade in his final year at Stanford was an 86.9. His grade in zone was a 91.2. He ran a 4.51 short shuttle, which for a center is typically indicative of strong upside potential. Dalman was always going to last to the round four range (it’s where I had him graded on my 2021 horizontal board) due to a lack of size (299lbs) and length (32 inch arms). Yet he had big hands (10.5 inches) — another indicator for future success at his position.

Dalman didn’t start a single game as a rookie, before taking over the job in year two. The Seahawks aren’t alone in this by any stretch — but they haven’t done a good enough job noting who has ‘the right stuff’ to be a potential hit in the kind of range Dalman was taken. He ticked a lot of boxes for a good starting center.

Of course, this was the 2021 draft that the Seahawks pretty much wrote-off because of Covid. They took Dee Eskridge instead of Creed Humphrey. They had only three draft picks after the nonsensical Jamal Adams trade, effectively taking them out of a class that included, aside from Humphrey, Landon Dickerson, Alim McNeill, Milton Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, Quinn Meinerz, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey Smith, Ernest Jones, Chubba Hubbard, Dalman and others. There’s no hindsight thinking here either — I interviewed McNeill, Williams and Meinerz pre-draft (among others) because we rated them highly.

When the Seahawks did take a shot on a center — Olu Oluwatimi in 2023 — his grading was good (80.4 overall, 74.1 in zone, 80.0 in gap) but not close to Dalman’s level. His testing results (4.68 short shuttle) were also far weaker and he has tiny hands (8 5/8 inches). This is a very different profile, one that doesn’t suggest ‘future top center potential’.

There isn’t a single player in the 2024 draft with similar grades to Dalman. We’ll see if anyone can measure up physically in terms of testing. Ultimately, the Seahawks might be best signing a proven player (Kelly) for the next two years and kicking the can down the road, if they can’t sign Dalman. Or they could try to convert a day three prospect (Clay Webb, Connor Colby, Luke Kandra) behind the experienced starter. A better plan is needed here, though, than annually just signing a cheap one-year band-aid.

Trey Smith is going to re-set the guard market and maybe get close to receiver-level money. The teams with major cap space are likely to be the big players for his services, or he might just stay in Kansas City.

Kevin Zeitler played in Detroit for $6m in 2024. What a bargain. If he continues playing, he might just stay with the Lions.

I’m not sure there’s anyone else who can provoke immediate change. It won’t be a surprise if the Bears — boosted by the fact their quarterback is on a rookie contract and clearly in an aggressive mood having appointed Ben Johnson — pull out all the stops to land Dalman and Smith to make a statement. This is the kind of power-play that would elevate the Seahawks in a big way but it just seems absolutely fanciful (and might be for the Bears too).

So what can they do?

Ryan Kelly is a reasonable short-term fallback option for Dalman even if his age and grade are not ideal. Keep an eye on Coleman Shelton as another alternative.

Teven Jenkins could be an option but it depends on his market. If he gets a Damien Lewis level salary, forget about it. He’s too inconsistent. If he’s available on a cheaper prove-it deal, he could interest Seattle.

As discussed last week, San Francisco’s Ben Bartch could be a sneaky target. The 49ers have earmarked him to replace Aaron Banks. Can you steal Bartch from them? He’s also 26 and has a ton of potential within this scheme. Unlike Dalman, Bartch is originally from Oregon — so he might be open-minded about coming back to the PNW. He grades well in zone but he’s taken significantly fewer snaps than the other players listed earlier, so there’s an element of the unknown here.

James Daniels would be an option but it’s unclear when he’ll be healthy after suffering a torn achilles. He might remain a free agent deep into the summer when his rehab concludes. Lucas Patrick (67.7 average grade in zone) could be a good draft hedge after playing for Kubiak in New Orleans.

Overall there aren’t a ton of attractive options. You better prepare yourselves, Seahawks fans.

Zone blocking grades for draftable prospects

Because free agency could be a struggle unless they pull off a major coup, I think the Seahawks are banking on a good offensive lineman being available at #18. If they want to inject quality into their O-line this is possibly the only way to do it. The problem is, they already have a very young offensive line. Relying on the draft will be risky. It might place a greater emphasis on signing someone experienced like Ryan Kelly (if Drew Dalman isn’t available).

I can’t list everyone because it’s unfair to publish PFF’s full in-house grades but here are the key linemen who did well in zone and after tape study, I believe would be fits within the system:

Charles Grant — 93.0
Wyatt Milum — 90.3
Armand Membou — 87.5
Jack Nelson — 86.4
Logan Brown — 85.2
Clay Webb — 84.9
Grey Zabel —- 84.8
Kelvin Banks Jr — 81.5
Connor Colby — 81.3
Jared Wilson — 78.9
Luke Kandra — 76.5
Will Campbell — 74.5
Josh Conerly Jr — 73.7
Donovan Jackson — 73.2

I think Tyler Booker can operate in outside zone. His grade (65.5) isn’t good but it was worse in gap (63.0). I think his performance overall in 2024 is indicative of a struggling Alabama unit. In 2023, he had a 71.6 grade in zone. I would happily take him at #18 — although I don’t currently think he will last that far in round one.

Here’s how many pressures the group above conceded in 2024:

Donovan Jackson — 19
Will Campbell — 18
Kelvin Banks Jr — 10
Tyler Booker — 10
Connor Colby — 10
Armand Membou — 9
Jack Nelson — 9
Charles Grant — 9
Luke Kandra — 8
Grey Zabel — 7
Clay Webb — 7
Wyatt Milum — 6
Jared Wilson — 5

The following players gave up the most pressures within this draft class:

Cameron Williams 26
Emery Jones — 25
Marcus Mbow — 25
Donovan Jackson — 19
Will Campbell — 18
Jonah Savaiinaea — 15
Jake Majors — 15
Aireontae Ersery — 13
Joshua Gray — 12

Here’s how many sacks the targeted zone group conceded:

Will Campbell — 2
Donovan Jackson — 2
Connor Colby — 2
Charles Grant — 2
Kelvin Banks Jr — 1
Jack Nelson — 1
Grey Zabel — 1
Clay Webb — 1
Armand Membou — 0
Tyler Booker — 0
Luke Kandra — 0
Wyatt Milum — 0
Jared Wilson — 0

The following players gave up the most sacks within this draft class:

Cameron Williams — 5
Jonah Savaiinaea — 4
Marcus Mbow — 3
Connor Colby — 2
Donovan Jackson — 2
Will Campbell — 2

Takeaways

I think there are some excellent zone blocking options in this draft and not just in the early rounds. As I mentioned, they might be banking on one of Tyler Booker, Armand Membou, Kelvin Banks Jr and possibly Will Campbell or Donovan Jackson being available. All can play guard, all would add cost-effective talent and upside. Three of the players have positional flexibility.

An ideal scenario for them might be for one of Booker, Membou or Banks Jr to be there.

They might then focus their attention on the defensive line in round two. As we’ll detail in tomorrow’s piece, the 50th pick could be a real D-line sweet-spot.

Then, it could be about taking a quarterback in round three. That will be discussed in Wednesday’s article.

In terms of later round guards, Clay Webb excites me. He might’ve played at Jacksonville State but he was a former five-star recruit who originally attended Georgia. He’s an excellent athlete with a strong wrestling background. His tape and Senior Bowl performance jump off the screen in terms of zone blocking. I think he could be a better option to come in and compete to start at left guard than some of the players being touted for rounds one and two.

Connor Colby at Iowa has played 50 games of college football, has consistently helped establish a strong running game (with no support from the Hawkeyes’ passing game) and he’s a top athlete (said to be able to run a 4.47 short shuttle). His tape shows a gritty blocker willing to do everything you need to establish an outside zone attack.

Cincinnati’s Luke Kandra is someone I only studied at the back end of last week but I was quickly sold on his ability to function at a high level in this scheme. Another terrific athlete (projected 4.90 forty), he has an ideal body-type for zone blocking and plays with aggression and mobility — showing he can pull and move around the line and reach up to the second level.

These three players in particular just struck me as what you need to make this scheme work. And really, that’s what this is about isn’t it? For the first time in a while the Seahawks appear to have a clearly defined blocking plan in place. It’s time to draft and develop for the system and put down some roots.

Some of the names I’ve discussed in this piece are tailor-made zone blockers. You have a very experienced offensive line coach in John Benton, who is extremely well versed in this system. It’d be great to hand him top-end talent, via free agency and the draft, but it might not be possible. You might have to try and find solutions. There are solutions, in my opinion, throughout this draft, not just in round one, but I do think they might be banking on taking an offensive lineman with their top pick.

This will feel underwhelming to many — but signing Bartch as a draft hedge and letting the draft come to you, which could mean drafting zone specialists later on, to me isn’t a crazy idea. The Seahawks need to build around a system, not simply draft big names in the early rounds.

The key is finding a center to anchor everything — and it’s why Dalman is such an important target, with Kelly as a legitimate Plan B.

I’d also say that Jack Nelson is tremendously underrated at Wisconsin and could kick inside to guard or act as a swing tackle, Logan Brown is strictly a tackle but could be a useful backup, Grey Zabel is clearly an option but could go earlier than some of the names mentioned above and Jared Wilson is an intriguing center prospect with all the tools you need — he might just need a bit of time to develop. The question is whether he’ll last to a range where the Seahawks feel like taking a chance on a player who might not start in the first year or two. Not having a fourth round selection until the comp picks could be an issue, if Wilson even lasts that far.

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