The only thing more remarkable than Gabbert's sudden rise to the top this offseason is how little he's been talked about while doing it.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

In 2010, Sam Bradford was selected #1 overall.  The next quarterback didn’t leave the board until Denver shocked the world 24 picks later with Tim Tebow.   The consensus #2 quarterback Jimmy Clausen?  He fell into the second half of round two.  In 2009, Stafford went 1st, Sanchez 5th, and Freeman 17th, all of whom were drafted pretty much exactly where draft experts expected them to and in the consensus order they were ranked.  In 2008, Matt Ryan went 3rd and Flacco 18th.   The year before that, Jamarcus Russell went #1, but the Oakland Raiders owned the top pick that year, and no one would argue with you if you thought Al Davis was insane.

I could keep doing this but I’ll stop there- the picture should be coming into focus at this point.  Generally speaking, the draft process is precise enough to order the quarterbacks into clear tiers of talent.  It wasn’t hard for teams to figure out that there was a gulf that separated Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, or Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.

This year is different.  Among anonymously interviewed NFL front offices, its basically split 50/50 as to who is the top QB between Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Auburn’s Cam Newton.  And among top draftniks Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock, they can’t even agree on that.  Both Mayock and McShay have Washington’s Jake Locker #2 behind Blaine Gabbert and ahead of Cam Newton.   So who’s the 3rd best QB?  Well depending on who you ask, its usually Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, but some teams have reportedly put Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick as high as 3rd on their QB board.  Mallett in particular is amazingly polarizing, being seen as a top 15 talent by some but ranked as low as the 7th best quarterback by others.  It goes without saying that as you look at the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th best quarterbacks, opinions become even more divided leaving a muddled and confusing mess.  More than a few prognosticators even have TCU’s Andy Dalton ahead of guys like Locker and Mallett.

While its true that “it just takes one team” to make a guy like Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker a top 15 pick, remember that this same logic applies to Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick.   I’ve seen more than a few mocks now that have Ponder going in the first round, and people are starting to talk about Kaepernick as a fringe first rounder now as well.  In the SBN authors mock Dan Kelly participated in, the writer for the Jaguars site Big Cat Country selected Christian Ponder with the 16th overall pick, with both Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett still on the board.  And while a fan mock is not going to be a perfect indicator by any means, I think its probably safe to assume that a guy who covers the Jaguars every day wouldn’t be terribly far off on his team’s interests, and it makes for a good example that sometimes players are picked sooner than they are expected to be and some are picked later- just like Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen last year.

In truth, we can say with a decent amount of confidence that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will probably be top 10 picks.  But after that, it basically becomes a QB raffle.  For example, Washington might like Locker a lot, but what if they like Kaepernick almost as much?  That would allow for the Redskins to draft an elite talent- like Alabama’s Julio Jones, and gamble that one of those two mobile QBs will still be there in the late 1st where trading up would not be terribly costly as teams in that area historically favor moving down.    Minnesota, Tennessee, and Jacksonville all figure to be in the hunt for a quarterback, but who do they like and how much do they like them?

In essence, we should prepare ourselves for the unexpected this draft day, because every single NFL front office thinks at least a little bit differently than the rest, and that is especially meaningful in such a muddy quarterback class.  It would probably be prudent to prepare yourself even for the painful-to-think-about possibility of Christian Ponder becoming a Seahawk with the 25th pick.  Almost everything about him screams John Schneider quarterback, if we use guys like Charlie Whitehurst, JP Losman, and Zac Robinson as the palette.

The remarkable unpredictability of this quarterback class has the potential to either save this franchise or doom it.  And because of that, this could end up being one of the more exciting and gut-wrenching first rounds we’ve had to sit through in quite some time.

Dan Kelly at Field Gulls conducted an interview with me this week discussing all things Seahawks and the draft. Among the topics – who are the best players Seattle can draft at #25, Mike Pouncey, Rodney Hudson, cornerbacks and a quick take on the 2010 draft class.

Brandon Adams at 17 Power discusses the possibility of the Seahawks trading down in round one: “I’m not interested in piddling around with late-rounders. Premiere talent is what gets the job done in this league, not necessarily multiple picks. Those picks still need to be good, and there’s a reason lower-round players fall – they’re not as good. I firmly believe that one first-round pick will usually impact a team far, far more than two fourth-rounders can. The gain needs to be worth the loss.”

Wes Bunting at the NFP says the Seahawks, Dolphins and Bills have been putting in the hours doing background checks on Ryan Mallett. Bunting also reports information from a scout that one team has Andy Dalton graded above Jake Locker. Two thoughts on this – 1.) Jake Locker will go to Washington in round so it’s irrelevant 2.) The Dalton-love has to be a smoke screen.

Rob Rang and Chad Reuter have updated mock drafts at CBS Sportsline. Rang gives the Seahawks Jimmy Smith and Reuter goes for Jake Locker.

Tom Kowalski passes on a discussion he had with a NFL GM that suggested Jimmy Smith’s stock isn’t falling as much as people think. I maintain that Smith is a top-10 talent who could be a better player than Patrick Peterson over time. Both are significantly better than Prince Amukamara. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tennessee gave Smith a home in the top ten (he’s talented enough) and likewise I won’t be a surprised if Amukamara falls into the late teens.

Ben Volin asks whether the Miami Dolphins should draft Ryan Mallett at #15. I think it’s between Mallett and Pouncey, with the quarterback having the edge due to the importance of the position. Volin: “The Dolphins need a long-term answer at quarterback, and Mallett very likely will be available if they opt to pick at 15 instead of trade down. The Dolphins have not invested a first-round draft pick in a quarterback since Marino retired after the 1999 season, and are still looking for an answer at the position, 12 years later.”

Patriots Football Weekly have compiled an interesting mock draft, courting the opinions of local journalists and beat writers. For some unexplained reason Todd McShay of ESPN makes the Seahawks pick. It’s worth a read with the exception of the Chiefs pick at #21 which has 0% chance of happening.

Walter Cherepinsky updates his mock draft with the Seahawks getting Jimmy Smith and Rodney Hudson in the first two rounds. That would be a nice consolation if quarterback isn’t an option in round one.

Gil Brandt publishes an updated ‘hot-100’ – which is essentially a big board. Brandt doesn’t specify a direct order, instead he splits the players into ‘tiers’ which makes a lot more sense than the weekly ‘Bowers is up to #2, oh no now he’s down to #4‘ manner of Mel Kiper’s board.

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper run through a few draft related topics for ESPN (see below):

Mike Mayock has Cam Newton 21st on his big board. And yet Newton has a very real shot to go 1st overall.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

While the 2011 class may not be a repeat of 1983 or even 2004, you could easily say that this is a quarterback’s draft.  Its been talked about that as many as seven quarterbacks could go in the first two rounds, and its likely we’ll see four or even five quarterbacks selected in the first round alone.  To put into perspective just how truly astonishing those numbers are, consider the number of QBs taken in the first two rounds in the last 5 drafts:

2010: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 1;  Total of first two rounds:  3.

2009: (1st round) 3;  (2nd round) 1;  Total of first two rounds:  4.

2008: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 2; Total of first two rounds:  4.

2007: (1st round) 2;  (2nd round) 3;  Total of first two rounds:  5.

2006: (1st round) 3;  (2nd round) 2;  Total of first two rounds:  5.

5 year average: (1st round) 2.4;  (2nd round) 1.8;  Total of first two rounds:  4.2.

So as you can see, if five quarterbacks come off the board in the first round, it would be double the 5 year average!

So why is this happening?  Well there are several factors in play here.  The first is that a lack of a collective bargaining agreement has banned franchises from signing quarterbacks in free agency or making trades for them.  If it seems odd to you that only 4 or so quarterbacks go in the first two rounds each year despite there being a perennial list of QB needy teams about four times bigger than that, its because many teams prefer to address their QB dilemma’s before the draft by signing or trading for a veteran.  Normally the draft acts as a safety net- whatever position you fail to address in free agency can be addressed in the draft.  This year, the roles have reversed, and its free agency that will act as the secondary source of filling out a roster.

This is not an optimal situation for front offices, because if they failed to sign/trade for a QB in the usual first phase of an offseason, at the very least they wouldn’t have to worry about “leverage” issues  from a draft pick.  But this year, if a team decides not to draft a QB, they face the possibility of being put over a barrel when discussing Kevin Kolb from the Eagles or Carson Palmer from the Bengals- because those teams will know you won’t have very many other options to fall back on.

The 2nd reason that such a high number of quarterbacks are getting 2nd round consideration is because this isn’t a top heavy class.  No QB in this class would be a lock for #1 in a typical offseason.  There isn’t a Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers level prospect to be had.  That means that QBs like Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, who are probably mid-1st round QBs, get pulled into the #1 overall discussion.  This in turn has a “rises all boats” effect on the rest of the class, because if both Gabbert and Newton are gone by the 5th pick, that means Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett become your “best QB available” starting at pick #6.  And if the “big 4” are gone by #25, that means that Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, and even Andy Dalton begin to get fringe 1st round consideration by needy teams looking to trade up into the end of the 1st.

The 3rd reason for such a high number of top 2 round consideration quarterbacks is an unusual lack of consensus when it comes to ordering these 7 prospects.  I’ll discuss this more in part 2.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

While Rob ships off to Jamaica, I’m coming back from a vacation of a different sort.  The “being lazy and making excuses to not post anything” type.  Admittedly its for a reason I’m sure many of you can relate to- that this is a pretty brutal offseason so far.  No free agency or trades before the draft, meaning that team’s needs are probably as undefined as we’ve ever seen, coupled with some fairly lousy draft capital owned by our beloved Seahawks.

Seahawks Draft Blog has really grown, and I haven’t posted in a long time:  so I’m probably a new name to many of you.  You might remember the Alex Gibbs piece I did, or maybe my 40 something odd part series of player of the day in which I previewed potential players Seattle might target in rounds 1 and 2, guys like Derrick Morgan, Trent Williams, Montario Hardesty, and so forth.

Rob has done an amazing job with this site and that’s why I’m here- to help promote what I think is an excellent source for Seahawks/draft news and analysis.  I came to know Rob online from his posting as TheEnglishSeahawk at scout’s Seahawks site back when Doug Farrar ran it.  Though I’ve never met Rob or even so much as talked to him on the phone, I consider him a friend and if there is anything I can do to promote his site I’ll gladly do it.

Its a shame the draft is so close and my ability to preview the draft is now pretty limited, but hey- we still have a potential lock out season, free agency and trades to be terrified about!  Hurray!

In general, I hope to take an in depth look at the “big story” of this draft, its QB class.  After that, I’m going to dive into Seattle’s stated intention of rebuilding the lines, if they can really do it and how they would go about it.  I’ll also offer some 2nd opinions on Rob’s analysis- which is probably my biggest regret from last year (not doing that).  Of the 40 something players I previewed last year, only 1 (!) was selected by Seattle (Earl Thomas).  Why?  Because I avoided talking about Russell Okung and Golden Tate.  Rob and Kyle held fairly strong and mostly negative opinions of Okung, seeing him as a late 1st rounder.  I always liked Okung and had him as my top tackle throughout the draft, but I didn’t want to rock the boat too much as I was a new contributor last year.  I kept my opinions to myself, although I did like Okung enough to successfully mock him to the Seahawks at #6 the day before it actually happened.  Similarly, I avoided talking about Golden Tate because Kyle Rota had expressed so much negativity about him, and I won’t kid myself into thinking I know more about evaluating WR than he does (and from what we’ve seen so far, I think he was right).

Well anyway, its great to be back.  I love how there is a new synergy in the Seahawks “blogosphere” between Rob Stanton, Brandon Adams, and Dan Kelly, three excellent writers.  This is how it should be.  I can’t wait to get started and be a part of it.

Quarterbacks like Jake Locker could promote the trade market

Projecting trades is like trying to predict this week’s lottery numbers. Really it’s the sliding doors effect – different scenarios provoke different opportunities. It’s hard enough trying to guess which team is targeting a certain player or position without also trying to guess whether they’d make a bold move up the board. 

Twitter is infected with live mock drafts at the moment. They start off fairly interesting then patience runs low and numerous bizarre trades kick into action. By the time these seemingly endless and tedious mocks are complete, they’ve become so convoluted with all the numerous trades. So having suitably insulted the world of twitter mocks it’s worth mentioning I’ll be hypocritically participating in one myself shortly with Dan Kelly (Field Gulls) and Brandon Adams (17 Power). 

If you can’t beat them, join them. Any opportunity to work with Dan and Brandon is a positive and hopefully this mock won’t be so out there. 

I’m flying back from Jamaica tomorrow so I’m not sure how active things will be until late on Wednesday. I wanted to run through some possible trade scenarios that I think are possible, but I’m not going to get into compensation. Really this is just a speculative piece on a subject nobody can seriously project. If we do see a lot of trades in round one this year, I think the quarterback class will play a big part. 

Trade scenario #1 

What if Cam Newton and Marcell Dareus are the first two picks in the draft? 

I still think there’s a good chance Da’Quan Bowers will be taken by Denver at #2, allowing Buffalo to draft Dareus. However, I suspect the Bills may get some genuine interest at the #3 spot regardless. It’s not clear yet whether the prospect of a rookie wage scale will encourage teams to move around more freely, but it could have some impact. 

Teams desperate for a quarterback will know there’s a strong possibility Cincinnati will draft Blaine Gabbert at #4. It’ll be interesting to see if the 49ers, Titans, Redskins or Vikings consider making that bold move up the board. Another possibility? Maybe a team like Dallas makes the call in an attempt to get their hands on Patrick Peterson? Teams trading into the top-three is not common and remains unlikely, but there’s a chance that #3 pick could have some value. Buffalo could still draft a top defensive lineman or a tackle like Tyron Smith later on in the top 10-12 picks. 

Trade scenario #2 

If Dallas are unable to get their hands on Peterson, they may look to move down from #9. Speculation has the Cowboys looking at cornerbacks, offensive tackles and defensive lineman – all logical options. If they single out a tackle as their best bet and prefer the depth later instead of drafting Tyron Smith in the top ten, they could make a jump down the board. 

There’s precedent for such a move considering Jerry Jones has done a lot of moving around in round one over recent years. He may see value in a Gabe Carimi or a Nate Solder and feel comfortable moving down the board knowing Anthony Castonzo and Derek Sherrod will also be available as insurance, as well as many 3-4 defensive prospects. 

Why would a team move into the top ten? Dallas picks just before another QB needy team in Washington. As with the Bills at #3 we could see movement in this area as teams look to usurp others considered a rival for the top quarterbacks. Minnesota, Miami or even Seattle at #25 could find a trade partner with the Cowboys, although any move by the Seahawks would likely cost the #25, #57 and at least a 2012 second round pick. 

Trade scenario #3 

Houston are switching to a 3-4 defense under Wade Phillips and need as many early picks as possible. The Texans’ defense remains a liability and in switching to the new scheme they realistically need a nose tackle, defensive end, outside linebacker and further additions to their secondary. A lot of the problems could be solved by better play up front and at least one solid addition to the defensive backs. 

Even so, if they can move down and pick up two more early picks it could be tempting. As with the previous two scenarios, Houston select before QB needy teams Minnesota and Miami. If three of the top four quarterbacks are off the board following Washington’s pick at #10, there could be some panic to make sure the fourth QB doesn’t last much longer. 

The Texans could target a nose tackle like Phil Taylor later or one of the many OLB prospects. Alternatively a smaller move down the board could still net an Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Prince Amukamaraor Jimmy Smith. 

Trade scenario #4 

New England have an incredible amount of draft stock which includes the #17, #28 and #33 overall picks. The Patriots could use all three to re-stock their defense and improve a unit that struggled at times to keep up with the Tom Brady show on offense. 

Alternatively, will they go for gold? This is a team that has a reputation for trading down not up, but is this the year they buck the trend? A pro-active move by Green Bay netted the Packers Clay Matthews in 2009, sending three picks to New England in the process. Matthews excelled and won a Super Bowl ring this year – the Patriots were left with three mediocre players. 

It would be a stunning shock if Bill Belichick packaged the #17 and #28 to move up the board into the top ten. However, the Patriots are not as predictable as some would have you believe. They will do whatever helps them get back to a Super Bowl next year so rule nothing out. 

Trade scenario #5 

In the first two rounds of the 2010 draft, teams traded directly in front of the Seahawks. In round one Philadelphia jumped from the #24 pick up to #13 in order to draft Brandon Graham. The move may have been initiated by the Broncos who were determined to move down and accumulate picks (they’d already moved from #11 to #14, before moving up from #24 to #22 to select Demaryius Thomas). Philly coughed up two third round choices to get the #13 pick. 

In round two it happened again. Both Houston and Cleveland moved directly ahead of Seattle in order to draft running backs (Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty). Clearly they suspected a rush at the position that may have included the Seahawks at #60. 

We may see further movement again this year, particularly with the continued focus on the quarterback position. Even if one of the ‘big four’ drops, I don’t expect they’ll land at #25 on a plate. Someone is likely going to test the resolve of New Orleans or Philadelphia and try to get back into round one. Even if the big four are gone, will the fear of the 5th quarterback going at #25 drive a team picking early in round two to move up?

Pete Carroll and the Seahawks' staff attended Locker's pro-day

Jake Locker is a coaches player. 

It’s an opinion based only on 2010 tape, a year in which the Washington quarterback was scrutinised, criticised and pulled apart. It comes with the territory of returning for your senior year, when evaluators expect to see a finished product and have further basis for nitpicking. 

There were some extremely poor performances from Locker (Nebraska part one, UCLA), some very good performances (USC, Oregon State) and the occasional write-off (Stanford). 

We’ve all seen the reports – a lack of accuracy, robotic mechanics, inability to improvise combined with obvious physical talent and upside. Nobody is prepared to come forward and say they’d risk a top-15 pick on the guy, a far cry from 12 months ago when he was touted as a likely top-ten prospect. 

People scoff and laugh at that suggestion now and claim it was never likely to happen. I often wonder whether we’d be saying the same things about Mark Sanchez or Blaine Gabbert as potential top-five picks had they stayed in college. 

With less than three weeks to go I would expect the vast majority of teams in the NFL don’t have a first round grade on Jake Locker. I suspect some won’t have him any higher than a round 3-5 prospect. Some teams won’t see him as the most talented senior prospect coming out of Washington this year. 

But some teams will grade him highly and I think it’ll be those that have coaches with authority potentially showing that interest. 

Coaches will be able to work directly with Locker to try and tap into the upside. Not every head coach or offensive coordinator will rate him, but those who do will thrive on the opportunity to develop his potential. General managers may be more cautious, concentrating perhaps more on the reasons not to draft the guy and looking at completion percentage and win/loss records. Once the decision to draft a guy has been made, their involvement pretty much ends when it’s over to the coaches. If the person making the decision can work with the prospect directly, I suspect you’d be more willing to take a chance on upside. 

The perfect comparison is last year when Tim Tebow went 25th overall to the Denver Broncos, who traded back into round one to draft the Florida quarterback. Nothing about Tebow mechanically or as a passer warranted a first round grade, yet he had an x-factor reputation earned through an illustrious career with the Gators. Some teams won’t have ever entertained the prospect of drafting Tebow that early, others will have given it serious consideration. Josh McDaniels controlled the Broncos draft board during his two year stint as coach and pulled the trigger on his guy. 

Locker hasn’t got the brilliant college career and success that Tebow had, but he’s also a much more orthodox quarterback with an over the top, quick release. As with Tebow a lot of teams will be scared off by inaccuracy or mechanical problems, but there will absolutely be others who can’t wait to take the chance on him working out as a NFL starter. 

Just like McDaniels in Denver, it’ll probably be a team where the coach has final say. 

This is the main reason I continue to mock Locker to Washington at #10. Mike Shanahan has been given control by Dan Snyder to do it his way. Locker is also the perfect scheme fit for the Shanahan offense. 

Donovan McNabb wasn’t benched on a whim. This was a veteran quarterback who cost the Redskins considerable draft stock, fresh into a new contract. Benching McNabb was a clear signal that Washington would be drafting a quarterback early. 

I doubt Denver/McDaniels were the only suitors interested in Tim Tebow and the same will probably be true of Locker. If I’m right and Washington do end up having serious interest in drafting the Huskies QB 10th overall, the question becomes whether anyone will be willing to trade up to usurp the Redskins? 

Will Minnesota, Miami or Jacksonville be surprise candidates? I’m not convinced. 

Back in December I wondered whether the Seahawks and Redskins would be draft rivals. A lot has changed since then, with Seattle making the playoffs and ending up with the #25 pick. As discussed yesterday trading into the top ten would likely cost at least the #25, #57 and a 2012 second round pick – a huge price I don’t expect they’ll be willing to pay. 

Even so I wouldn’t rule it out and just like the Redskins and Broncos, the Seahawks are a team where a coach holds the final decision.

A few extra thoughts on this week’s projection…

– I’m uncomfortable projecting Da’Quan Bowers as low as #11 overall. This is a guy I’ve had pencilled in at #2 with Denver ever since the season ended. I appreciate there are some concerns with his injury and a poor pro-day performance, but he’s clearly not 100%. Teams will go through tough medical checks to determine whether he’s likely to be hampered by further knee problems. Tony Pauline reported this week that Buffalo green lighted a medical check. It’s easy to forget this is a player who had 16 sacks during the 2010 season. If Denver wants to play it safe, they can select Marcell Dareus. I suspect that if Bowers’ knee is cleared and John Fox has any input, the Broncos could still draft a Clemson defensive end second overall.

– If Newton and Dareus are off the board it creates a quandary for Buffalo at #3. I personally think it’s too high for Von Miller, but many thought #9 was too high for CJ Spiller 12 months ago. Is AJ Green an option? What about Blaine Gabbert? I would take the quarterback or Da’Quan Bowers but I suspect Buffalo may go in a different direction. It could be a potential trade slot for other teams in the top-ten if the feeling is Gabbert won’t get past Cincinnati at #4.

– San Francisco are a bit of a wild-card at #7. They obviously have the need at quarterback but I don’t think anyone expects them to draft Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett. They are well positioned to draft a cornerback, defensive end or OLB pass rusher. Alternatively they could move down the board, but they already have a war chest of picks. The player top of San Fran’s draft board may be different to many others. I have Cameron Jordan at #7 this week with JJ Watt as a potential alternative. Both great fits who are capable of creating pressure.

– I’ll be surprised if there isn’t early trade movement, possibly in the top-ten. I think Tennessee will take the best player available, even considering their big needs at quarterback and cornerback. Dallas at #9 is an interesting spot. I have Washington taking a quarterback at #10 (Jake Locker). I suspect they won’t risk Locker going to Minnesota, Miami or Jacksonville by trading down – all this despite the negative publicity surrounding the Huskies QB. The Cowboys could be targeting offensive lineman, defensive lineman and cornerbacks. It’s widely speculated they want a right tackle who can start immediately – with Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi and (considering their preference) Nate Solder being possibilities. Dallas could trade back even into the mid-20’s and still get one of that trio. A smaller move down the board still gets them a top ranked DL or CB too. The Cowboys traded away a pick in the 20’s for a future first in 2007, so they aren’t afraid to make bold moves.

– The Seattle Seahawks held a private work out with Jake Locker this week. If (and it remains a big ‘if’) the Seahawks are serious about keeping Locker in Seattle, the Dallas Cowboys might be the team to do a deal. It’d be a costly move with the Seahawks probably needing to sacrifice the #25, #57 and a 2012 second round pick. Using an updated trade chart that would total 1245 points and the #9 pick is worth 1250. The cost may be enough to prevent a deal happening – Locker would be a gamble at #25, let alone with three high picks invested in his success and a top-ten salary.

– If the Miami Dolphins pass on Ryan Mallett I’ll be surprised. It’d be a great schematic fit now that the Dolphins have moved away from the wildcat experiment. They traded for a big-name receiver (Brandon Marshall) last year. Chad Henne has been with the franchise for three years now and hasn’t been able to convince anyone of his starting ability. The former Michigan quarterback is also a low-cost option as a late second round pick. Miami’s biggest need is quarterback and a guy that can start quickly at that. Mallett ticks the boxes.

– I still have Nick Fairley dropping. #18 might be a bit too dramatic and it’s not a perfect fit for San Diego, but how can he get away with rejecting to work out for Miami? If that’s the attitude he’s taking then it’ll prove costly. I’m not nailing my colors to the mast here, Fairley could easily stick in the top-ten. A fall has to be a possibility though.

– A mixed reaction to Marvin Austin at #25 in the comments section. I have trouble selling the idea to myself too because as I’ve often mentioned, I gave him a late second/early third round grade based on 2009 tape. Since then he’s missed a whole year through suspension and he’s only being talked up now because of a brilliant off-season. What I need to decipher is whether the bad 2009 tape was down to a lack of effort and a bad attitude, or whether it’s just the physical qualities don’t translate into football ability. Pete Carroll has taken a chance on rough around the edges types (Mike Williams, Marshawn Lynch) and managed to motivate game winning moments out of them. Austin is a personable guy and may just need the right kind of leadership. The three technique position becomes a huge need if you expect Brandon Mebane to depart the team.

– Round two is a complete lottery and I’m not going to sit here and claim my projection carries any weight. There may be guys I’m mocking in round two that go undrafted, or at least drop into the late rounds. The best of the best will have a tough time guessing 64 picks correctly. I’m not convinced we’ll see the mad rush on quarterbacks everyone’s projecting. As much as I don’t like Christian Ponder, I think he’s the only QB likely to garner interest in the round two range but only to specific teams.

– The Leonard Hankerson pick for Seattle at #57 has received a negative response. I think there’s likely to be some value at receiver in that 55-65 range and as with Golden Tate last year, the Seahawks may feel one guy is worth a chance. John Schneider has come from a Green Bay team that has been collecting receivers in that range for a while, including Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. People have talked about the ‘trenches’ at #57 but the options aren’t likely to be great in that area if a number of interior lineman leave the board as projected in this week’s mock.

You can see the latest mock draft by clicking here

Could Leonard Hankerson be an option for the Seahawks in round two?

I have limited time today but wanted to put something on the blog, so here’s this week’s mock. I actually wrote this out in full with graphics but the internet connection at the hotel crashed, wasting over an hours work.

Round One

#1 Carolina – Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
Ever since Andrew Luck opted not to declare, I’ve had Newton going first overall.

#2 Denver – Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
I’m not writing off Bowers yet but if Denver want to play it safe this makes sense.

#3 Buffalo – Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M)
I don’t agree with this pick but it looks like it could happen. They should take Gabbert or Green.

#4 Cincinatti – Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
This is a no-brainer with Carson Palmer forcing himself into retirement.

#5 Arizona – Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
With the top-two quarterbacks off the board Arizona takes the BPA.

#6 Cleveland – AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
The perfect fit for Cleveland considering their complete lack of offensive playmakers.

#7 San Francisco – Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
Jordan could go this high, he’s talented enough.

#8 Tennessee – Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
Quarterback and cornerback are the big needs but Tennessee are my tip to make a surprise choice.

#9 Dallas – Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
Smith starts at right tackle but he’s got limitless potential on the blind side.

#10 Washington – Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
Mike Shanahan will fight to draft Locker and he’ll win.

#11 Houston – Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
If he does fall it won’t be too far. Huge production in 2010, huge potential.

#12 Minnesota – Robert Quinn (DE, UNC)
The Vikings pass on Mallett with premium defensive talent still available.

#13 Detroit – Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
I prefer Jimmy Smith but the character concerns will help Amukamara.

#14 St. Louis – Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
If it’s a choice between Liuget and Nick Fairley I think the Rams will go with the Illinois tackle.

#15 Miami – Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
I just can’t see Miami passing on Mallett.

#16 Jacksonville – Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
A logical fit considering the Jags’ need at defensive end, their scheme and the value on offer.

#17 New England – JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
He plays like a New England Patriot and I think they’d love to have him.

#18 San Diego – Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
Fairley’s attitude could cause a fall. He recently rejected an offer to work out for Miami.

#19 New York Giants – Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
Someone will draft Ingram in this range and this would be a perfect fit.

#20 Tampa Bay – Jabaal Sheard (DE, Pittsburgh)
He’s more suited to a 4-3 defense than most people think.

#21 Kansas City – Mike Pouncey (OG, Florida)
Scott Pioli looks for leadership, character and quality. Pouncey has all three.

#22 Indianapolis – Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
Defensive tackle and offensive line are the two big needs for Indy.

#23 Philadelphia – Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)
Smith has too much quality to fall past this range.

#24 New Orleans – Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
Solid week one starter that fills a need for the Saints.

#25 Seattle – Marvin Austin (DT, UNC)
A brilliant off-season is boosting Austin’s stock. Could he go in this range?

#26 Baltimore – Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin)
Carimi can start immediately as a pure right tackle for Baltimore.

#27 Atlanta – Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa)
Clayborn needs to play as an orthodox right end in a 4-3 scheme.

#28 New England – Anthony Castonzo (OT, Boston College)
They’ll know all about this guy.

#29 New York Jets – Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona)
Rex Ryan loves pass rushers. I suspect he loves pass rushers with great hair too.

#30 Chicago – Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State)
A good match for the post-Tommie Harris Bears.

#31 Pittsburgh – Muhammed Wilkerson (DE, Temple)
Inconsistent but with raw potential as a five technique.

#32 Green Bay – Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State)
I think the Packers will draft a pass rusher or an offensive lineman.

Round Two

#33 New England – Justin Houston (DE, Georgia)
#34 Buffalo – Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
#35 Cincinnati – Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA)
#36 Denver – Kyle Rudolph (TE, Notre Dame)
#37 Cleveland – Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)
#38 Arizona – Martez Wilson (LB, Illinois)
#39 Tennessee – Curtis Brown (CB, Texas)
#40 Dallas – Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)
#41 Washington – Christian Ballard (DE, Iowa)
#42 Houston – Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State)
#43 Minnesota – Edmund Gates (WR, Abilene Christian)
#44 Detroit – Bruce Carter (LB, UNC)
#45 San Francisco – Ryan Williams (RB, Virginia Tech)
#46 Denver – Jarvis Jenkins (DT, Clemson)
#47 St. Louis – Danny Watkins (OG, Baylor)
#48 Oakland – Chimdi Chekwa (CB, Ohio State)
#49 Jacksonville – Mikel Leshoure (RB, Illinois)
#50 San Diego – Quinton Carter (S, Oklahoma)
#51 Tampa Bay – Rahim Moore (S, UCLA)
#52 New York Giants – Terrell McClain (DT, USF)
#53 Indianapolis – Drake Nevis (DT, LSU)
#54 Philadelphia – Ben Ijalana (OT, Villanova)
#55 Kansas City – Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State)
#56 New Orleans – James Carpenter (OT, Alabama)
#57 Seattle – Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami)
#58 Baltimore – Torrey Smith (WR, Maryland)
#59 Atlanta – Titus Young (WR, Boise State)
#60 New England – Jordan Todman (RB, Connecticut)
#61 San Diego – Orlando Franklin (OG, Miami)
#62 Chicago – Marcus Cannon (OG, TCU)
#63 Pittsburgh – Randall Cobb (WR, Kentucky)
#64 Green Bay – Aaron Williams (CB, Texas)

Who will quarterback for Pete Carroll in 2011 and beyond?

Could the Seahawks really ignore the quarterback position completely in the 2011 draft?

I touched on it briefly yesterday but felt this was a topic worthy of a little more focus. My own personal view is that quarterback is the team’s #1 need and it’s not even close. I suspect the team’s front office will share that sentiment, particularly given Charlie Whitehurst is currently the only quarterback contracted for 2011. His expensive deal expires in 12 months time.

It’s an issue that is going to be solved one way or another this off season. The question is – how?

In Pete Carroll’s end of season press conference he talked about re-signing Matt Hasselbeck as a priority. A deal never materialised and Seattle’s most successful quarterback will test free agency whenever that takes place. There are two things that instantly came to mind when Hasselbeck wasn’t re-signed before the CBA expired:

1.) If the team were completely committed to Hasselbeck, how did it ever get this far? Was he really that much of a priority, or was he a priority signing on much reduced terms? He hasn’t enjoyed a great deal of success in the last three years and will be 36 in September. Will a team stump up an attractive offer when free agency does eventually kick into gear? Are the Seahawks still considered favorites to complete something with Hasselbeck regardless of what happens in the draft?

2.) Was it always the team’s intentions to go into the draft and test the water? If a quarterback fell to them at #25 that they weren’t expecting or if they worked on a deal to trade up, would that ultimately make Hasselbeck expendable? Likewise if they weren’t able to draft the guy they wanted, do they feel comfortable enough to re-sign Hasselbeck later in the year?

Whatever you think about Hasselbeck it certainly was a significant moment when the CBA expired without a freshly signed contract. Despite all the positive talk of mutual respect and priorities, for the first time it seemed like the Seahawks were actually preparing themselves to move on.

This situation will be resolved one way or another, that absolutely is the case. Either it’s one year or multiple years of Hasselbeck (with or without a logical replacement in the background) or they’re moving on. I suspect we’re closer to moving on at this stage.

This brings me back to my view of Carroll’s regime. We’ve heard the slogans – ‘compete’… ‘all in’… ‘win forever’…

If I could ask Carroll any question knowing I’d get a definitive answer, as of the 5th April it would be, “can win forever include a rookie or at least an unproven quarterback?”

I’m not convinced it can, but then what do we really know?

Pete Carroll wouldn’t be the first Head Coach to carry such a view. Jon Gruden was vehemently opposed to rookie quarterbacks in Tampa Bay and in part it may have contributed to his departure. What happened as soon as Gruden left? Weeks later they drafted Josh Freeman in the first round.

The thing with Gruden was he just preferred to have the experienced head running the show. He’d rather pluck Jeff Garcia from free agency than draft a first round QB. I’m not sure Carroll would act in the same way, but I think he might be leaning towards experience in the early years of this latest project. Win forever is more than just the name of a book and competition isn’t something restricted to the players during training camp. Carroll wants to win – it’s what he’s become used to after years of USC dominance in the PAC 10.

When he arrived in Seattle the team almost immediately traded for Charlie Whitehurst – a 28-year-old veteran coming from the Norv Turner school of quarterbacking. Even though Whitehurst didn’t have much game experience, he had been coached by one of the best in the business and associated with a top NFL quarterback (Philip Rivers) and one of the best backups (Billy Volek).

The Seahawks didn’t dip into a patchy class of quarterbacks, passing on Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy et al to go in different directions in every round. Instead they brought in JP Losman to compete as the third stringer.

If you believe media reports Seattle were aggressive in their pursuit of Philadelphia’s Kevin Kolb and it’s a rumor that has extended into this off season. Several reports have also surfaced suggesting the Seahawks have at least held talks with Cincinnati to discuss a potential move for former Carroll protigee Carson Palmer.

Perhaps this is just a case of leaving no stone unturned in the perpetual race to find that one guy who can lead this team to sustained success? Perhaps the 2011 draft is the next part of the puzzle and could provide the answer? Or maybe it really is all about the veterans?

Think about it – Seattle brings in another veteran who has at least some experience and grounding in the league. Someone Carroll thinks he can trust to start immediately. There’s no reason why the Seahawks cannot win in the NFC West with better quarterback play and Carroll must know that? If he’s looking to prepare the programme for the long term, maybe he will think short term at QB?

Once the win forever system is up and running and the team has some sustained success, he makes the splash on a rookie QB. Is it illogical? Is it really that far fetched to think Carroll believes Kevin Kolb is a safer bet than Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker? Absolutely not.

But again I will state how opposed to that suggestion I truly am. For starters, if you trade for a Kolb or a Palmer and it does cost you a first round pick or a combination of picks you have to get that instant success to justify the move. People will ask questions sooner of a player that is considered the finished article. Even if one of those two players offered an improved statistical performance to Matt Hasselbeck, if the offense doesn’t function or the team isn’t winning people will say, “was it worth it?” Yes the Seahawks can win in the NFC West with better quarterback play, but so can the San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals.

Signing Carson Palmer could be nothing more than a stop gap and a delaying of the inevitable. Kevin Kolb is a different matter in that he could legitimately start for many years – but how much are you willing to spend on a player who has earned a reputation actually based on very little other than sporadic form?

Even with a lockout injuction it appears impossible that free agency will take place before the 2011 draft. Do you really trade unknown 2012 draft stock for Kevin Kolb? If you’re willing to spend a top 5-10 pick on Kolb then it’s a non-issue. That is the worst case scenario. Again though, I’m not sure people would stomach a trade that saw the team bring in Kolb, struggle and then be left with the prospect of losing a top-ten pick.

If there is any concern about handing over the new era of Seahawks football to a rookie quarterback, at least people will expect growing pains. There won’t be the pressure to start the player immediately. Go back and sign Matt Hasselbeck if you have to, or trust in the big trade of 12 months ago and give Charlie Whitehurst his moment to show it was all worth it. If the rookie isn’t ready, c’est la vie.

At least then you’re geting a guy you can mould how you wish. Someone who can grow with what is going to be a younger team. Someone you can build around – highlight the strengths and mask the weaknesses. Whether you’re drafting a prospect or signing Kevin Kolb – you know you need a better offensive line and more playmakers. Doesn’t drafting a rookie just buy you an extra year to further improve those positions?

Of course the argument I’ve missed so far is the one that states the lack of options early in the draft. If the top four quarterbacks are long gone by #25 and this front office feels the same way about Ponder, Dalton etc as I do, then Kolb and Palmer suddenly become merely alternatives to Hasselbeck and not the rookies.

That is of course, unless you’re willing to move up.

Things will become clearer after the draft and even more so whenever football re-starts and we see who it is that leads the offense into battle. The simple fact is we just don’t know enough about this regime at the moment to accurately guess what the plan is. All we know is they’ve had strong attendance at both Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett’s pro-days and that the Arkansas QB is today completing a two-day visit to Seattle.

There’s the facts. If only we had more to work off?