Today I’m going to do something I’ve never done before. A mock draft with trades.
Considering the fruitless nature of trying to predict 32 picks anyway, I thought I might as well throw in a few deals to change the angle of the debate.
There’s a good chance we’ll see 8-10 trades in the first round this year, giving the whole thing a completely different feel. There’s no fear factor over acquiring early picks since the new CBA was installed. Teams are more than happy to move up. And I think we’ll see a few significant moves in 2013.
Let’s put it this way — there are no obvious elite picks this year. No Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Jadeveon Clowney or even Cam Newton. So what we could see are teams with needs at the premium positions moving up in cheap(ish) deals to make sure they don’t leave empty handed. Teams who are comfortable at quarterback or left tackle could conceivably be willing to move down given the defensive depth in this draft.
Below you’ll find today’s mock including all the deals (trades are highlighted by ** after the players name). At the bottom of the piece I’ve listed the nine different trades I included with a short blurb for each.
First round
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#1 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They try and trade down, but why would you need to get ahead of Jacksonville? Dion Jordan + Tamba Hali = a way to stop Peyton Manning. |
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#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) ** Buddy Nix said his team might have to move up this year to get their guy. They trade ahead of Oakland to secure Geno Smith. |
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#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) With Geno Smith off the board they take the best defensive lineman available. |
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#4 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) ** Martin Mayhew makes sure he gets a complete cornerback by swapping picks with Philly. |
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#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) ** It’s easy to forget what a shambles Philly’s offensive line was last year. Having convinced Detroit to swap picks, they take Fisher at #5. |
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#6 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) ** Sensing an opportunity, San Diego trades up to nail the left tackle position indefinitely. |
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#7 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) After the fiasco of 2012, don’t expect Arizona to do anything but draft a quarterback here. |
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#8 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) ** Assuming he checks out medically, Lotulelei could play the one or five technique in Gus Bradley’s defense. |
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#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) The Jets might play it safe with the long term future of Rex Ryan unclear. Go back to the run on offense. Start by drafting Warmack. |
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#10 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Not the flashiest pick but Tennessee’s pass rush isn’t as bad as people think. |
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#11 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) ** They could’ve taken him at #6 but they still get their guy despite moving down. |
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#12 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) Werner won’t fall too far. He makes a nice partner for Cameron Wake. |
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#13 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) ** Monte Kiffin loves this guy, so the always-aggressive Jerry Jones moves up again. |
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#14 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) Disappointed that Richardson is off the board, they address a different need at receiver instead. |
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#15 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) ** Unless they sign Jake Long, they need to be aggressive to get a blind-side blocker. They have to consider trading up. |
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#16 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon. |
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#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) This is a nice fit for player and team. |
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#18 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) ** They can move down a few spots and still get a cornerback. |
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#19 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Some team will bite on Ogletree in the top-20 |
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#20 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) ** Trading down five spots doesn’t hurt the Saints — they still get an edge rusher for the 3-4. |
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#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either. |
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#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) If they’re losing Steven Jackson, then they’ll need a big, physical runner to compete in the NFC West. |
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#23 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick? |
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#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) ** They have enough picks to target a defensive lineman and move up. |
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#25 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) ** With the pick they got from Atlanta for trading Revis, the Jets trade above Green Bay to get a much needed receiver. |
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#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) Donald Driver’s retired, Jermichael Finley might be cut and Greg Jennings is a free agent. They could go for a pass catcher here. |
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#27 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) Solid, productive inside linebacker. |
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#28 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) After a horror show in the playoffs, Denver needs to re-boot that secondary. |
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#29 Menelik Watson (T, Florida State) ** They need a tackle almost as much as they need a quarterback. Trading up to address the gaping hole at left tackle is a must. |
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#30 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) ** Stenosis could lead to a fall. Working out where he goes is like trying to finish a Rubik’s cube. |
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#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) ** They need to bulk up the interior offensive line. |
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#32 Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn) Should they lose Paul Kruger in free agency, finding an edge rusher will become a priority. |
There are nine trades in this week’s mock:
1 – Atlanta trades #30 and a conditional 2014 pick to New York for Darrelle Revis
Thomas Dimitroff is no stranger to big moves (see: Julio Jones). Long before the draft they win the Revis sweepstakes by giving the Jets a first round pick this year and throwing in a conditional second rounder for 2014.
2 – Buffalo trades up from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation – second round pick)
With Oakland speculated to be showing interest in Geno Smith, the Bills could be pro-active to make sure they get their man. GM Buddy Nix has openly admitted this might be the year to make it happen at the quarterback position. Jacksonville can afford to move down and still improve their pass rush. They have a lot of needs, so acquiring the #41 pick to go with the #33 in round two makes sense.
3 – Detroit trades up from #5 to #4 with Philadelphia (estimated compensation, late round pick)
The Lions make sure they get Milliner by flipping picks with the Eagles for minimal compensation. Philly could use a cornerback, but they might have their eye on other needs. That won’t stop them attempting to lull the Lions into a deal. Minnesota successfully scared Cleveland into swapping picks last year for Trent Richardson. It’s a small price to pay to get your guy.
4 – San Diego trades up from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation, third round pick plus)
With Luke Joeckel still on the board and the Chargers wondering what Arizona will do, they move up to secure a much needed left tackle. Cleveland hasn’t got a second round selection so accumulating another pick in round three makes sense. This would be a good deal for both parties, win-win.
5 – Dallas trades up from #18 to #13 with Tampa Bay (estimated compensation, mid rounder)
Jerry Jones is always willing to be aggressive on draft day. Monte Kiffin was equally aggressive in trying to get Sheldon Richardson to de-commit from Missouri and switch to USC. They need to get the right players to make this switch to a 4-3 work. Richardson surely won’t get past Carolina at #14? Tampa Bay can still get a corner at #18 while also hurting a division rival if the Panthers are targeting Richardson. It could make for a cheap trade with Dallas.
6 – Chicago trades up from #20 to #15 with New Orleans (estimated compensation, mid/late round package)
Unless they want to make a move for Jake Long next week, the Bears are running out of options to protect Jay Cutler. If they see Fisher, Joeckel, Warmack and Cooper leave the board in the top ten, they better get ready to move up. The Saints are down on picks due to the bounty scandal so might be willing to talk about a trade. St. Louis could take Johnson at #16 while other teams (Cincinnati?) may also show interest. Trading up eliminates the competition for Chicago.
7 – San Francisco trades up from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation, mid rounder)
The 49ers know they need to bolster their defensive front and have enough picks to make a deal. Datone Jones could have a big impact at the five technique and might be the heir apparent for Justin Smith. San Francisco will suspect interest from Seattle, and you just know Harbaugh would love to get one over the Seahawks here. If Indianapolis is looking seriously at Travis Frederick, they can probably afford to trade down first.
8 – New York trades up from #30 to #25 with Seattle (estimated compensation, late rounder)
John Idzik rings his old buddies in Seattle and works out a ‘mates rates’ trade. The Jets need a pass rusher, but they also need to kick start a rank bad offense. Justin Hunter is trending upwards after the combine and could be a target for Green Bay. The Jets swoop in first. Without much competition for pass rushers in the late first round, the Seahawks can afford to move down even if the deal isn’t great (eg, 4th or 5th rounder).
9 Arizona trades up from #38 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation, mid round pick plus)
The Cardinals know they have to get a left tackle and the options remaining are running thin. Similar to Tampa Bay going up to get Doug Martin last year, Arizona takes no chances here and makes a move at the end of day one. Menelik Watson is the best option available and they get the job done so they can relax over night. New England — despite moving up twice in round one last year — always appear willing to move down.
So what about the Seattle’s first pick?
In this scenario, I’m projecting they would’ve shown serious interest in Datone Jones until San Francisco moved up to get him. Accessing that there are still plenty of options at defensive end, tackle, tight end and receiver, the opportunity to move down appears attractive. The new-found connections in New York help things along.
It really came down to two players at #30 — Jarvis Jones and Corey Lemonier.
For the last few weeks, I’ve had Jones dropping out of the first round. This isn’t a wishful attempt to give the Seahawks one of biggest names in the draft. I think we’ve gone through enough different options so far to make that a moot point.
I do believe he’ll suffer a fall on draft day. Stenosis is a bad word in the NFL. While some teams will be willing to take a chance (they always are) others will be wary of the condition making it a short-term investment. Teams picking in the top-20 will have alternatives. It’s just a case of which team is going to take the chance and at what point in the draft.
If he falls into the late first, the Seahawks might be the team. Yes — Pete Carroll has the whole USC history with Jones. And I still think there’s an extremely good chance that’ll stop Seattle considering Jones in round one. However, as discussed in yesterday’s piece — he’s a grown man and nobody is forcing him to pursue a career in the NFL. I think it comes down to the percentage risk of a life threatening injury. If the stenosis is always liable to end his career prematurely, that’s one thing. If it’s liable to ruin his life forever, that’s quite another. I’m not a doctor, I don’t understand the full consequences here. The player himself could fall, but he’s also good enough to be named among 2013’s top prospects. So how do you balance everything out? And will he even be a part of Seattle’s draft board to begin with?
There’s a lot’s of things at stake here that’ll determine whether he’s part of Seattle’s plans. Availability, diagnosis, need. Again, it’s something we discussed at length yesterday. Could it happen? Only another 50 days to find out.
Hard to see this playing out for the Hawks – adding picks to a team that doesn’t have that much room to begin with doesn’t seem to be the right move. No issues with the pick, just don’t see them adding picks this year. More likely to package picks for a move up. Now if that was your thought on this move, then I am back in – package this new pick with others and move up in rounds 2, 3 or 4!
They may well move up in other rounds. But I’d argue just because the Seahawks have 10-12 picks this year doesn’t mean they won’t move down if the situation dictates that is the best move. Essentially, if the player they’re going to take at #25 will still be there at #30, why not have a free pick?
They could always add picks for next year as well.
I don’t see this happening unless all their R1 target(s) are off the board. If it does happen, it’s likely to be a last minute thing.
On second thought, a distinct possibility if Jarvis Jones is still available. Good call Rob.
No guarantee that anyone will still be there at 30. The risk is too great to get cute and risk losing someone you want. Just stay at 25 and get the best TE or one of the best WR Hopkins, or a DL.
I would rather move up to get a better pick than down and risk losing someone.
Yes – don’t get cute. The extra fourth round pick will be competing against nine other players to make the practice squad.
Or it could be the next Sherman, Wilson, K.J. Wright, Chancellor…
If Hawks get more mid-round picks it will be at the expense of their late round picks. They need quality not quantity in this draft. This is not last year; not even close. No way in heck they let SF move ahead of them and take a defensive player this year.
We’ll see. Having more picks is never a negative thing. Not with this front office.
Exactly this! Plus as cold as it is, better is better, and I hope that the Seahawks keep up with the old college model for developing positions, lots of picks, some UDFA’s and let the battles in training camp commence. The very methodology that turned this teem into a pile of rubbish into a contender in three years is I hope the same method that PC/JS employ for the rest of their tenure.
They ‘got cute’ moving down for Irvin last year in a very similar situation. They had two guys they liked, felt they could move down and still get one.
Because of last year, when John Schneider moved down in the first round, then decided against moving down again, I’m willing to trust his instincts. That said, I get nervous when the Hawks move down. I don’t seem to have any trepidation when they trade up though. Don’t know why, I’m like that?
I really like Jarvis jones this makes me happy if he can work with Irvin a d Clemons when he gets healthy the hawks shouldn’t have a problem getting pressure. My wonder is can he play the will? Or would we be converting him to Leo/de ?
I think he plays LEO, personally. Although USC signed him to play linebacker.
Nice job, Rob. Love your work! This is going to be an intriguing month, for sure.
WoooO! That was fun! 🙂 I think you nailed it with GB and a TE. Rodgers got hammered a lot last year and their O Line needs some help as well as at receiver, two-for-one.
And I’m sure everyone knows my feelings about Jarvis Jones, I would love him in Seattle. Would be disappointed to see Lemonier go somewhere else though. And would laugh if SF moved up for Datone. Imaho, it would be like their disaster at WR last year, AJ Jenkins or something like that? It seems SF is great at signing FAs, but with draft picks, meh.
Funny thing is, San Francisco lost their GM before this draft. The one who helped get them Alison smith, Patrick Willis, Navarro bowman, etc.
Guess who he works for now as a scout/GM assistant? Seahawks!
(He stopped with San Francisco because he wanted to spend less time at work, and more with his family. We hired him to work still staying at his home in San Francisco, except for events like the combine).
He lives in SF, and ties to the 49r’s,…hmmmm How do we know he isn’t just a spy for Harbough. I wouldn’t put it past him.
I doubt that’s the case. I’m sure his contract with SEA calls for complete confidentiality, with very stiff financial penalties if he violates that. Moreover, his career would be over. Any career.
Pretty sure Don was joking…
“Alison smith”. Thanks for making me laugh.
Very smart mock this is. I don’t see many real misses on need here — the picks make a lot of sense on a per team basis.
I do think I’d be surprised to see Floyd for the Raiders. From the accounts I’ve read, it seems they are less inclined to go with a 3 tech and need more of a 1. I suspect that their need will dictate either moving down or taking Lotulelei even if the value doesn’t match. In truth, I think they may go with one of the bigger run stuffers in R3 and try to collect as many picks as they can. They are pretty bankrupt on picks and are without a 2nd rounder this year.
I would expect that could change based on the results of Seymour and Bryant. They could just as easily go with Floyd and double up with a Geathers/Jenkins/Hankins in R3.
I wouldn’t be surprised if TB moves down several spots to maybe the early 20s. CB seems pretty flush this year.
Like the justification for the moves overall. More than anything, it helps to see how teams could be thinking and what teams might legitimately be able to move around. I really do think that TBs pick could be had by Seattle — it would be a steeper price that what Dallas would be offering. But I do see a realistic possibility that we could move that far and absorb that draft cost. For what the Bucs are looking for, they can get good upgrades at #25. It’ll all depend on how they see the CB pocket of talent. Is there a ‘guy they can’t leave without’, or are there 2-3 guys they like. If the former, then they probably won’t entertain the idea of moving to 25. If the latter, then it’d be in play and it would come down to cost.
I’m doing my mock llike this
FA Darrel Fellls
1 Kawan Short
2 Ryan Swope
3 Zavier Goodsen
4 Trevis Kelce
5 Nickell Robey
will probably need to move up before Miami to get him with a 7th i think i could move up. if i can’t trade my alternative would be John Simon. The 4th bothers me Kelce could be gone before here Mark Harrrison would work also.
This could change I heard a rumour that Denver could drop Elvis Dumerville if he doesn’t agree to a pay cut. What would the Seahawks do with a Dumerville?
Would be ecstatic if this scenario happened. I see it as being very likely, with a few trades)
Swope’s concussion history should easily push him into the late 3rd, to 5th round range.
Swope in my opinion will never be big time in the NFL.
Maybe. But those who said the same thing about RW were legion.
Wilson didn’t have any health/concussion problems.
Glad, I was one of the first people last year to discuss why Russell Wilson would be a great pick for Seattle. Unfortunately, Swope is not anything special. He will probably be just like a Kris Dunham without the height, Makes the team and does nothing to excel.
If Seattle were to trade in this mock, I find it hard to believe that they would only be able to pick up a 4th or 5th. I think a late 2nd or 3rd is more likely.
Looking at the draft depth their are certainly stronger positions than others: OLB seems to have the deepest list of potential players followed by DT/DE. I don’t know what the percentage of blitzes we ran last year but I am pretty sure our LB’s rarely blitzed. That being said I think it is a very strong possibility we address either the DT or DE position first. My only exceptions to that would be if Jones, Ogletree and Mingo are still on the board. These three players offer DE type skill sets and Ogletree remember is a converted safety, Jones can bullrush and is often around the ball making plays (exception) Alabama but not many people did have success against them and lastly Mingo whom has shown athleticism and speed to get to the QB. The downside is that all three have questions surrounding them, (Consistency or Medical).
If Seattle does not go after one of these three players or does not make a trade “up” the board I think we would see something more along the lines of this after 5 rounds: not considering any free agent additions at this time.
1. John Jenkins Sam Montgomery Kawann Short
2. Khaseem Green Sio Moore Justin Hunter
3. Jordan Reed Da’Rick Rogers DeVonte Holloman
4. Oday Oboushi Jordan Hill LaVar Edwards
5. Corey Fuller Dion Sims Xavier Nixon
Great idea Rob, a mock with trades, super fun read! Now a that I am down to this point, I wish there was a 2nd round, aka mock withdrawl. If the draft played out this way it would be just fine with me. If Jones was already gone, who would you pick instead?
Out of the box served by Rob on Wednesday afternoon:). TY.
I was torn between Jones and Lemonier in this week’s mock. Could easily have gone with Lemonier. I’m just not blown away by the DT options when Richardson, Star, Floyd and Jones leave the board. Not in round one anyway. And I think there’s even a chance someone like Kawann Short is there in round two. I wouldn’t rule it out.
Rob are Jarvis Jones and lemonier equal talents in your eyes or are they only equal if you included Jarvis jones injury?
It’s hard to say because Lemonier played on a rank bad Auburn team and it impacted his production. Does he excel in Georgia’s defense? Quite possibly. He’s faster and a better edge rusher than Jones. But then Jones is just a natural football talent who does a good job stunting inside and he has a rare ability to just keep making plays in the backfield.
If they are close then I would go with lemonier using health as the tiebreaker but if jones is superior and its only close because of the health issue then I go with jones. Lem seems like a more natural fit for our defense as well if jones can’t be a will lb so that is something to consider as well… The real problem with this draft is there are like 20 guys who I like a lot and only one guy I love and we stand like a 1% chance of getting the guy I love (Richardson) and like a 50-60% chance of busting with all the guys I like, such is the problem with picking at the back of the draft I suppose
I feel the same. Very few guys I really, really want. Lot’s of guys I ‘like’.
I really liked this idea too Rob. I had toyed around with playing this game as well.
One thing I think that may be a little off is the compensation. I know with the deep draft that moving up might not be as expensive as other years but I can’t imagine so many moves in the first round being made for mid to late round picks. I wish it were so. I think moving up historically has been way over priced and I think the point system is a load of crap. I mean come on, would you really value a move up the draft this year the same way you would last years. I say no way.
Any ways cool stuff especially if we actually lived in a buyers market world.
Last year we saw some pretty cheap moves… Dallas for example moving into the top ten for a second rounder. We saw teams dropping for the sake of it (Denver with Tampa Bay) and a lot of ‘friendly’ trades where it was difficult to criticise either party for making the move. That may be the way the draft goes when there aren’t top-tier players like RGIII waiting at the top of round one. I suspect we will see it again this year. Good example — Cleveland has no real need to own the #6 pick. They have a ton of cap room, they have a left tackle. I would’ve given them Ziggy Ansah at #6 in a normal mock. And here they get Ansah at #11. So they pick up a third rounder for free really. Meanwhile, San Diego gets Joeckel. It’s win-win which kind of limits the compensation a little.
Do you think Seattle could get Khaseem Greene with their second round pick? I would hate to leave this draft without him.
Possibly. Right now I have him as a late first, early second round pick. If he fell to #56 then there’s every chance he ends up in Seattle IMO. Like him a lot.
It’s hard to tell. His speed hurt him at the combine. Not that he’s slow or comparably poor relative to the other LBs, but you see the strength of the DT, CB and WR pools and it’s difficult to see average graded LBs competing for those 20-50 range picks. There is speed and size to be had there that compares well with recent years. Teams are going to see those as bigger upgrades and not want to miss out on them.
It’ll be need driven. But remember, last year was a bumper crop as far as LBs go. Most teams that were looking at LB as a need fulfilled that need in 2012. There aren’t as many teams looking at LB as a result.
Compare to TE and Safeties — two positions that have been lean the last two drafts. Teams needs in these areas are kind of acute because of that cyclical lack of talent.
Elvis Dumervil might be a FA. He supposedly isn’t a great rush stopper, but would we consider him a fit here Rob or Kip?
He’s short and they like length at the LEO. He’s maybe had his day in the sun. I wouldn’t be opposed to his signing, but I can’t get excited about it either.
Russell Wilson’s short too… just saying
He’s also not a pass rusher.
He is short, but if I remember he has a 6’4 reach. Maybe not that long but its crazy for a 5’11 guy.
Interesting, I didn’t know that. At the right price I’d be interested.
Dumervil has a 6’6″ wingspan. Apparently his teammates call him a monkey or something because he has ridiculously long arms for being only 5’11”. He ran a 4.68 at the combine in 2006 with a 1.65 10 yard split, which doesn’t seem like a great burst for a LEO. His production would price him out of our plans anyway.
Dumervil’s best season came under Mike Nolan running a very disciplined 3/4 with minimal wrinkles. He put up awesome stats in that regime, but under the current 4/3 he doesn’t produce int he way that his contract dictates. As Rob says he’s a bit short and squat…and let’s all stop with the “that’s what they said about WIlson…” Pete never said that about Wilson. Not once did he say two words about ideal QB size, but he has gone on and on about size at nearly every other position.
Actually he fell in the draft because of numbers that were not the most impressive and being on the short/small side. His firs year in limited time he turned in 8.5 sacks in a 4-3 D. the Following year as a full time starter he got 12.5 a INT and was all over the place. The following year he tore his pec and was out something like half the year or more.
When we drafted Tapp I was disappointed because on film Dumervil looked better as far as a rush end goes though Tapp had incredible strength numbers. The Hawks took Tapp in rnd 2 the Broncos got Dumervil in rnd 4.
I remember watching Dumervil because of Dewayne White, who I thought was going to be a stud (boy was i wrong) but Dumervil has show once again you can’t just look at the combine numbers.
Brothers a Denver fan so catch alot of games. Dumervil disappeared last year. In a year well Von Miller was borderline unstoppable and Denver typically played with the lead. Not worth the investment. Since they will probably demand similar money, I’d probably take Freeney. At least he had a genuine reason why he wasn’t as a effective. Indy did not have the personell to run a 3-4.
when*
I like how you had Atlanta trading for Revis, and not SF. Though I think SF’s picks are more desirable for the Jets, being so close last year for Atlanta that Arthur Blank would pull for this in a heartbeat.
And I’m sure Idzik would like to stick it to SF, lol.
Really think Matei is still 1st rounder? I think Alabama game really exposed him and his times at Combine were really poor, I think he ranked in bottom ten as far as 40yd dash.
I think Manti will be OK. It only takes one team and all that.
San Fran has the picks, but not necessarily the $$$$ to invest in Revis. Remember, they have a ton of big names they’ll have to re-sign coming up including most of that offensive line, Kaepernick, Crabtree and others.
Yeah, SF is about where we will be in 3 years’ time. Lots of their players coming from the ’06 through ’09 drafts. This is a year they need to get younger
Thanks Rob for this edition. Quick question….I remember when Daquan Bowers was in your top 10 a year or 2 ago. I forget what the issue was but he fell hard…3rd or 4th rnd to TB. How likely is such a fall for Jones? Any chance we could score both Lemonier and Jones, or is the talent drop off enough to force a run on DE / LEOs? SHDB is the best of the best!
Hi Vin, Bowers went in the second round due to concerns over a knee problem. He was another immensely talented pass rusher and eventually TB felt the risk was worth it. I suspect that will be the floor with Jones too – he won’t fall beyond the early or mid second round and may still be a R1 pick. There are similarities between the two though.
I must be smoking crack and thinking of another player. Thanks for the correction.
This mock makes way too much sense. This is probably what every team SHOULD do. Of course that probably means none of it will happen lol.
I’d love to see a second round of this mock.
How does KC’s decision to cut Eric Winston change your thinking on their pick?
I think they will draft Joeckel at #1 now.
That’s surprising news for sure. Winston is a good character guy and someone who could cover left in a pinch. Reid must be thinking franchise tackle this year.
From RotoWorld:
“Winston just signed a four-year, $22 million contract last offseason and graded out as top-nine right tackle in Pro Football Focus’ 2012 ratings. The move saves $3.5 million in cap space.”
The Chiefs organization was in such a good spot, and I think they have absolutely blown it. I like Alex Smith, but you severely overpaid. You cut a solid RT making only 3.5M. You tag your LT with back issues, costing about 8M for 1 season, and you’re going to move him to RT where he’s said he doesn’t want to play, with the expectation of drafting a LT 1 overall and having no RD 2 pick. You also re-sign Dwayne Bowe to a big contract. Tell me again how you’ve made your team better?
Cutting Winston only makes sense IMO if you a) really love one of the tackles in the draft and feel like you simply have to get them or b) his play was off big time in 2012.
I watch film on Winston this last year because he has a good rep and everyone was on Breno. From what i saw Winston is solid, and most plays that went bad on his side were due to qb play. I think the Chiefs are in love with Eric Fisher, after the great showing at the Senior Bowl and then tearing up the combine. I like Joeckel but if you see them all as 1a,b, and c then go with the hottest one. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Lane Johnson isn’t in the mix. He just absolutely tore up the combine.
If not for the medical concerns, how high does Jarvis Jones get drafted? Top 10?
Potentially #1
Top-15/20 I’d say.
This was a guy who last year would have hands down been the top rated pass rusher in the draft. Probably a top 5-8 selection.
This year, it’s a bit different. You don’t have the elite QB options, but chances are one or 2 may go top 10 anyway due to the nature of the position. You have 3 great LT prospects who all should be picked high.
I think he *should* be top 10 barring medical. I don’t see his junior year having paled to his sophomore season. Statistically, he was up in virtually every way (tackles, TFL, Sacks, FFs, INTs). I’m not sure if fit plays into it much. But he certainly followed up a sensational SO season with an even more impressive JR campaign.
Rob
This is an idea I have been toying with for awhile. Yes, Seattle has more picks than available roster spots this year. So, why would they trade down? Value! Same player (short list of 2 or 3) later spot, more picks to package to move up in the second or third this year, or more picks to maneuver with next year.
Can you image what P&J would do with 3 picks in the first two rounds (or 4 in rounds 1-3) of this years deep draft! Likewise, think of the possibilities with extra picks in the quality rounds of next years draft. With the way SF & STL are stockpiling quality round picks, the Hawks are going to have to be pretty imaginative just to “keep up with the Jones”.
Also, I agree with you concerning the DTs. There are only three or so this year that I would use a first round on. Better to get a LEO or WILL, or even WR who can have an impact and then pick up some man eating DL men in mid rounds.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again… This is a blog that needs to be visited more than once a day! Keep up the great work, we all appreciate what you and Kip do for all of the True Blue Hawk fans.
I agree 100% with your idea. I have been preaching to use the picks to trade up and get fewer impact players rather than more second tier players.
Trade up, or trade your 6th for next years 5th, this years 4th for next years 3rd, etc.
Thanks man.
Rob, this was… unique. Normally I can keep up with your train of thought, concerning your mocks in the weeks leading up to the draft. Not with this one. I liked it. This mock draft caused me to look at it in a much broader sense. Anything that inspires non-linear cognition is cool. You definitely threw a wrench into my draft perception. Thanks.
Don’t know much about Menelik Watson. I just realized that his number was 71. You can’t really go wrong with a tackle from Florida State wearing that number.
You thru me for a loop with this trade mock. I laid down for the night and thought about it some and I could see the Seahawks dropping into the beginning of the 2nd round grabing another pick and getting Kawann Short the using that pick and another to jump up and get DeAndre Hopkins this would be sweet.
It’s funny that I read here about the possibility of Jones dropping due to the stenosis, which I think will be the case. It’s only a matter of how far and how many teams are scared off by it. It is not unprecedented at all that teams are scared off from drafting a guy for whatever reason but there becomes a time that they are too valuable to pass. It’s ironic that teams pass on players like this while some teams pick way too early on other players.
Anyway, I wanted to mention that I heard John Clayton talking on his radio show about how he thought Jarvis Jones would go top ten. He also mentioned something that I had not heard before about Jones. He mentioned that after the USC diagnosis, he changed his tackling technique so that his head was always upright and tried to limit his possible injury through better technique. It’s also a bit ironic that this “change” in technique sounds like a change to form tackling. It’s not surprising that in the football world of big hits, that a sound form tackle would actually be most effective and limit injuries, it’s just surprising that it seems very few people seem to catch on to that concept.
I think we’re all guessing at the moment on the stenosis issue. 32 teams could move him down, 15, 10. Too hard to call. Although I think given the DL options in this draft there are enough alternatives to probably keep him out of the top ten.
I look at typical Seahawks #1 picks (and some that Seattle wanted but missed on) and can only come up with 3 “freaks”. Otherworldly measurables in one or more specific areas, which explains why they were successful college football players.
First, JS/PC history in round 1:
2010: Okung (athleticism at 305 lbs + long arms) & Thomas (SPEED)
2011: Carpenter (strength and suprising agility at 325 lbs + long arms)
2012: Irvin (SPEED + long arms/huge hands)
All four first round picks were fantastic college football players throughout their D-I college careers that produced on the field. These guys were recognizable contributors to their football teams, they were impact players. Carp and Okung were less impactful as o-linement, but they were obvious NFL talent and domininant LT’s.
My three “freaks” are: Margus Hunt, Datone Jones, Justin Hunter. I define freaks as size/speed mismatches.
Hunt is insanely long and freakishly fast for his size.
Jones is 280+ and athletically equal to linebackers.
Hunter is 6’4 with long arms and elite speed, he also has a frame to add 10-15 lbs without becoming bulky.
They all have a downside as well or else they’d be top-5 picks: Hunt is 26, Jones and Hunter didn’t really dominate in college dispite their athletic talent.
Jones and Hunter were however, impact players which is why I think they will be highly rated by the Seahawks and I think they might even be targets #1 & #2 at the 25th pick.
#1 Hunter, the consumate deep threat (Torrey Smith, but taller). Despite solid receiving stats, should have had even more. He was often running uncovered through the secondary or behind it but his QB (Bray) failed to find him or was innacurate when he did see him.
#2 Jones, Super quick 3-tech – he did the dirty work and caused frequent mistakes by the opposition by disrupting blocking schemes against the run and QB timing/footwork in the pass game. Didn’t always finish, but UCLA’s defense was undermanned – some outside pressure keeping the QB from escaping would have helped him a ton.
No Patterson? Hunter has twig legs. Whenever he cuts I wince because it looks like his knees are going to give out at any minute. It’s not surprising he hurt them in college. And I’m not sure he has that deep speed you’re referring to.
I like Markus Wheaton as a deep threat. He had a 4.4 fourty. Threw up 20 reps on the bench had a 37.0 vert and a 120.0 broad jump. He had a 4 second shuttle and an 11.16 in the 60 yard shuttle. And a 6.8 3 cone. He’s only 5’11 and 180 lbs. but he has 33″ arms and great hands. Oregon State all time leader in receptions. He’s my favorite receiver in this class. Sure hands, speed, agility, willingness to block and has plus character
I think Hunt would be a terrific fit in the Jason Jones role. We should rename it, I’m tired of saying “Jason Jones role”. What about the Rhino position.? If we don’t resign Jones to play Rhino, then Hunt could be an option in the second.
Datone Jones is by no means a FON. He has just decent speed, strength and explosiveness for a 3tech. He’s just a hair slower than Atkins, It hink and looks like a great 3tech to me, but is definitely not a freak of nature.
I really wish we had three picks in the second round.
Take Sly Williams, Markus Wheaton and Khaseem Greene. Mmmmm, wishful thinking.
I’d love to have two second round picks this year.
Patterson is a top-15 lock, so irrelevant for a Seahawks discussion. Wheaton is too small to make this team. Seattle has two little fast guys and their spots are not available (Tate, Baldwin). Seattle puts a collection of various talents on the roster, not similar players. So, that’s why Wheaton isn’t probably on the board. I think the reason JS likes this class is because of the size and those pockets Kip talked about in an earlier article.
Going back to Patterson, I guess a trade-up is possible, but I don’t think he’s worth it considering the late round size/speed available at WR: M. Wilson, Harrison, R. Smith (especially M. Wilson).
The three guys I mentioned, the two I focused on are definetely going to be on Seattle’s radar because they are not player types currently on the roster and JS wants to balance his roster. I could be way off, but I don’t think I am. I think Justin Hunter is very possible and likely high on the board. If he’s gone… don’t fall out of your chair if Marquess Wilson’s name is called by the Hawks in the 2nd or 3rd round…
Size (> 6’3)/Speed ( 6’6 wingspan): Seattle will take this guy somewhere in the draft now that Durham’s off the roster. Hunter might be that guy in Rd 1 is all I’m saying. The doctors got a chance to poke and prod him at the combine, so if he’s drafted by Seattle, I wouldn’t worry about his knees too much.
We’ll see if Patterson is a top-15 ‘lock’. He could go in the top-15, no doubt. But he’s far from a lock. Great speed and playmaking quality, but there’s as much bad tape out there as good. He looked so ropey running routes and catching the ball at the combine. He’ll be a first round pick, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he lasted into the late first.
I think Hunter is quickest in the initial 5-10 yards. Long strider, gets into his breaks quickly. Can create separation. However, I never saw a great deep threat. Bray’s accuracy was all over the place beyond an intermediate level, but I still didn’t see many routes where Hunter tried to get in behind. They seemed to use Patterson for that
Never saw a great deep threat? I have a hard time believing you Rob, you watch too much tape for that. On the hard play-fakes it was Hunter running the deep skinny post or fly on each of them. You have to see the plays that look like something Seattle might run. On those Hunter ran deep or deep comebacks, he was WIDE open… I think that’s what GMs are doing, identifying talent that does things they want to do.
“Pretend” he’s in the Seahawks offense playing SE or FL. The running game is the key, not the 3-4 wide shotgun/pistol business Tennessee ran. After Lynch bangs on the defense for a first down at the Seahawks 35, the play action is going to draw the FS and now Hunter is one on one with a CB running an option post/fly/comeback depending on CB leverege and Wilson has all day to see it. Good luck with that CB…
Sure, Hunter dropped one of these type of plays. The threat of his deep speed is what opens up the short curls and crossing routes. He really runs some crisp routes in the short game too, but he’d need to bulk up for Seattle to put him in that area. Each time Hunter ran a deep route, he was clear by 4-5 yards. He does need to work on his hands, but in Seattle his skillset would open up the underneath guys and clear some running lanes because safeties would have to respect the vertical game even more.
I love this guy, if he gets coached up on high-pointing the ball and gets in an NFL conditioning program, he could really open up the offense.
I didn’t see many deep throws to Hunter, but then I haven’t watched the Troy tape until today. In fairness, he wasn’t to do it very often from what I can tell. But I think deep speed is overrated anyway, most of the top receivers in the league didn’t run 4.3/4.4. I want to see competitive safe hands, quick breaks, clutch plays and reliability. I want to see a guy who goes up and wins the ball in the air. I’m not sold on Hunter. Nice speed, gets into his breaks quickly enough. But he is not a reliable catcher, he’s not very competitive in tight coverage. I’m dubious about his potential.
I came up with my last pick in the 5th round Quinton Dial DT/DE Alabama 6’3″ 318lbs Its a JS/PC project all over it. He maybe could play 3 or 5 tech spots. Not alot of stats but such potential here.
Interesting comments by Cossell on the Herd today. Talked alot about big corners that aren’t super athletic and it becoming the new norm. Remember two years ago when they talked about BB being something out of a videogame and everyone was super skeptical? Blows my mind how far ahead of the curve Pete and John were when they came into Seattle.
RD1
>Datone Jones
>Damontre Moore
>Kawann Short
>Alec Ogletree
RD2
>DeAndre Hopkins
>Arthur Brown
>Sam Montgomery
>Zach Ertz
RD3
>Da’Rick Rogers
>Bacarri Rambo
>Montee Ball
>Gavin Escobar
RD4
>Zaviar Gooden
>Jordan Hill
>Le’Veon Bell
>Travis Kelce
RD5(2 PICKS)
>Montori Hughes
>Devin Taylor
>Matt Scott
>John Simon
>Marcus Lattimore
>Ricky Wagner
>T.J. McDonald
>Gerald Hodges
RD6
>Dustin Hopkins
>Zeke Motta
>Kwame Geathers
>Denard Robinson
RD7(4 PICKS)
>Miguel Maysonet
>Marquess Wilson
>Marcus Davis
>Mychal Rivera
>Duke Williams
>Michael Buchanan
>Cooper Taylor
>Mark Harrison
I think KC is plenty happy with both Justin Houston opposite Tamba Hail at OLB. Enough so that they won’t draft an OLB 1.1. I could see them trading down or taking an OT, CB (Dee), or possibly even yet another DT.
Two Guards in the first round would really be nuts, but the talent level is there. Warmack certainly looks like the next J.Evans, Carl Nicks type.
I think a team will move up for the QB they want and Geno appears to be the top guy (and is in my view). I don’t think the cold-weather, windy climate in Buffalo suits Barkley’s game very much.
I think the Jets absolutely have to go offense, but at the skill positions. WR and even RB need to be on their top list, but mostly WR. They can wait to get a quality RB that doesn’t emulate Shonn Greene’s plodding game in a later round, but the need to strike fast on the top WR if available over a guard. They need weapons even if Warmack is a monster.
I don’t think Vaccaro is a top-20 player despite being the top Safety available.
T’eo is a 2-down run thumper and in this day and age of passing NFL and coverage LBs, no way is he going that highly, even if Spielman was a former LB himself. Teo is more in the Dont’a Hightower or Brandon Spikes range of draft value/positional value. If you can’t play three downs you don’t go in the top-25, but 23 might be possible. MIN does need a quality MLB, but why not wait and get a 2-down run defender in the middle rounds and use that pick to give your young QB another play-maker at WR?