I’m not a fan of way too early mock drafts. They tend to be lists of players who either appeared on Bruce Feldman’s last freaks list or ESPN’s top-300 recruits from yesteyear. What started as a fun annual exercise by Todd McShay, consulting with sources in the league, has become an ‘everyone must do one of these’ and they’re all mainly rubbish.

Many of the names I’ve seen on the lists are just unproven highly recruited athletes. Most of the mocks have Arch Manning included, when anyone who knows anything about football knows he isn’t going to turn pro after one college season as a starter.

In this piece I’m just going to give a few general predictions and thoughts on the class 12 months out and note a few players I think are worth highlighting, based on tape study over the last two years.

What is the class?

There is potential depth at quarterback, that’s absolutely true. We could even see a top-10 dominated by quarterbacks depending on how they play in 2025. We’ll come back to the QB’s in a moment.

Caleb Downs the Ohio State safety is the best draft eligible player for next year. He is an obvious future NFL starter who deserves high grades based on what he’s shown in college already. He is a complete safety — impressing in coverage, versus the run, blitzing and completing a high percentage of his tackles. Every time you watched Ohio State last season, Downs jumped off the screen.

The other player I have watched that I absolutely love for the next draft is Spencer Fano the right tackle at Utah. I studied his tape a couple of months ago because he had the highest zone-blocking grade (93.5) in college football last season and I wanted to use his tape as a means for comparing to everyone else. I was blown away by the way he attacks opponents and engages contact, how when he’s latched on he leverages and then re-sets his feet constantly to maintain position and he’s a violent finisher. I can’t wait to watch him play again in 2025.

Two Clemson defensive linemen warrant a mention. TJ Parker doesn’t have a typical lean frame and his agility testing and burst will be critical. However, he just wins in so many different ways. He has an excellent, powerful bull-rush working the edge. His inside stunt, even when engaged in contact, can be deadly. He has such forceful power in his hands and it feels like he’s only scratching the surface in terms of how he can use that to his advantage. As a speed-rusher there is evidence of him attacking the outside shoulder and bending the arc. He had some big wins, most notably against Pittsburgh. Parker recorded 12 sacks last season. He only had a win percentage of 15% though and that’s why I wonder whether he’s quite dynamic enough to challenge the front end of round one.

There’s no such concern for Peter Woods. He has plenty of speed and dynamism and combines it with a bull-in-a-china-shop mentality to getting through blockers. Clemson used him as a big-end and there’s High School recruiting tape where he’s defending the edge and playing read-option plays like a linebacker. It’d be good to see him used more conventionally as a full-time three-technique to add to his 13.5% win percentage and show the league what he can be.

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, brother of Jordan, is also a special talent who could really promote his stock high into the first round this year. On the subject of running backs, Nicholas Singleton — provided he can shine through a time-share with Kaytron Allen — is also an incredibly dynamic runner.

Thing to note

Two years ago Jayden Daniels was considered a day three pick. A year ago, Cam Ward had just transferred from Washington State and was being given day three grades by the NFL. He wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl and he reneged on a decision to turn pro because he was going to be a late round selection. I’d seen Ward play live and there was nothing — absolutely nothing — to suggest he could be a future first round pick, let alone the #1 overall selection.

Things can change quickly, particularly with mature quarterbacks who reach a comfort level from their experience.

The quarterbacks

There’s a lot of potential within this group but every single player has to take a step forward in 2025. That’s typical for any draft prospect of course, particularly at quarterback. But there are several players here where it could genuinely go either way, determining whether they end up declaring or staying in school.

Garrett Nussmeier could’ve been a first round pick this year if a team was willing to overlook the avoidable turnovers that blotted his copybook. He lacks elite physical tools but he’s in the ‘good enough’ category in terms of arm strength. He made more NFL-style throws than any other quarterback last season and his technical ability is excellent and unsurprising given his family background. His ability to read the field, throw with timing and anticipation and make difficult throws on the move was highly impressive at times.

There were also the moments of erraticism and some ugly interceptions to go with the positives. LSU will always have enough talent to be competitive and in year two as a starter, with plenty of experience in the system, Nussmeier can secure a first round placing with a big year in the SEC and should enter the season as the most projectable first round talent. If he fails to fix the turnover issues though, it could easily go the other way.

Drew Allar at Penn State will be planning to turn pro too. He almost declared this year and could’ve been a first round pick based on upside. He made major strides in 2024, going from a player who didn’t look draftable the prior year to someone who deserved first round buzz. Allar is big, athletic and has a good arm. He is a less creative, more structured version of what Drake Maye was at North Carolina, with less upside.

The problem with Allar is we saw a lot of ups and downs. Against Oregon he looked like he could be QB1 in this years draft. Against Notre Dame in the playoffs, he fell apart under the pressure of the situation. He also relied heavily on Tyler Warren as a go-to target and won’t have his safety net next season.

A lot of people are putting LaNorris Sellers at the top of their ‘way too early’ mock drafts. He certainly has physical tools and after an average start to last season he finished very strongly. I’m torn on whether he’d realistically declare next year. He’s a one-year starter in college only. He would be declaring, if he chose to, as a redshirt sophomore. That is quite rare at his position and with NIL money taking away the pressure to chase a NFL contract as quickly as possible, I suspect he’ll only turn pro if he has an outstanding season. That said — if he wants to be a quarterback who uses his legs a lot, he might be better off not taking the punishment in college and risking injury.

Sellers needs to develop on a technical level — learning to throw with better touch, operate from the pocket and find the balance between using his arm/legs to simply out-athletic opponents and become a genuine NFL talent under center. He can achieve this but it might take more than one extra year at South Carolina.

Aside from these three, I was surprised how much improvement Cade Klubnik showed at the end of last season. He finally seems like he’s delivering on the recruitment hype and kudos to Clemson for being patient with him. He has all the tools but now needs to become a killer — putting up huge numbers like you’d expect from an experienced quarterback with his traits playing in the ACC. There’s no reason why he can’t seriously elevate his stock into early round contention but equally, if he falls back into bad habits his stock will collapse.

Haynes King showed some serious balls for Georgia Tech last season and his combination of running and throwing is very appealing. If you’re looking for someone who could really elevate his stock in 2025 who isn’t being talked about much, keep an eye on King.

Jacob Zeno did a good job in a difficult situation at UAB. He turned down big NIL money to stick with his old team but has now decided to take one last shot to promote his NFL abilities by going to Texas A&M. As with King, he is a player with tools who could really jump onto the scene next season.

Elsewhere, let’s see how Sam Leavitt plays at Arizona State but like Sellers, he might be a player who is only really just getting started in college and might not declare. I am intrigued to see how Washington State transfer John Mateer gets on at Oklahoma while Miller Moss has landed in an excellent spot playing for Jeff Brohm in Louisville. Kansas State’s Avery Johnson has a lot of physical talent but whether he’s minded to declare early remains to be seen.

I’ve no doubt that Carson Beck will have some success in Miami but to me it’ll be hard to shake off what he showed in 2024. He’s simply too inaccurate, lacks big-time physical tools and you don’t get the sense he’s going to walk into a NFL locker room and be the alpha leader.

Other players who transferred include Tyler Van Dyke (SMU), Billy Edwards Jr (Wisconsin), Mark Gronowski (Iowa) and Conner Weigman (Houston).

A lot of names, then, and it’s possible several could push themselves towards round one by the end of the year. It’s also possible the class could be reduced to a Nussmeier and Allar first round — which wouldn’t be the ‘much better class’ vibe many were touting throughout the 2025 pre-draft cycle.

One player I’m really interested in for Seattle

Logan Jones the Iowa center was one of the most improved players in college football last season. He was night and day compared to the raw athlete we saw in 2023. Jones recorded an 84.5 grade as a zone blocker and looks tailor made for Seattle’s scheme. It was gut-wrenching when he chose not to declare.

He’s reportedly capable of jumping a near 37-inch vertical while running a 4.09 short shuttle and a 1.53 10-yard split. These are elite numbers, even better than another former Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum.

I’m secretly hoping that part of the reason the Seahawks didn’t select from a weak center class this year is because they’re eyeing Jones in 12 months time. I graded him as a fringe first round talent based on his 2024 tape. If he plays well again in 2025, there’s no reason why he can’t go in the same range as Linderbaum and be a potential first round target for Seattle.

Keep an eye on his team mate Gennings Dunker too, who lined up at right tackle and recorded a 92.3 zone-blocking grade last season.

Another potential center target, Parker Brailsford at Alabama, also didn’t turn pro this year. He’s very experienced in Kalen DeBoer’s system now so big things will be expected of him in 2024.

Other players I’m looking forward to watching further

Jalon Kilgore (CB, South Carolina)
Malik Muhammad (CB, Texas)
Patrick Payton (EDGE, LSU)
Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)
Dontay Corleone (DT, Cincinnati)
Josh Kreutz (C, Illinois)
Mansoor Delane (CB, Virginia Tech)