Pete Carroll made reference to ‘pressure percentages’ in a recent interview
In an interview with John Clayton this week, Pete Carroll talked about pass rushers and delivered the following quote:
“We’re just looking for activity and problem-makers. Usually you can look to that pressure percentage; how many times when they rush do they affect the quarterback?”
PFF record quarterback pressures and pressure percentage. I’ve combed through their free-to-read articles and tweets to find out what I can.
Note that the data is far from complete:
Total pressures
EDGE/DE
Brian Burns — 66
Sutton Smith — 65
Jaylon Ferguson — 64
Ben Banogu — 60
Zach Allen — 59
Josh Allen — 57
Clelin Ferrell — 56
Maxx Crosby — 55
Oshane Ximines — 55
L.J. Collier — 54
Joe Jackson — 54
Anthony Nelson — 53
Chase Winovich — 53
Montez Sweat — 48
Jalen Jelks — 43
Justin Hollins — 41
Jachai Polite — 41
Christian Miller — 39
Jamal Davis — 38
Charles Omenihu — 38
Jordan Brailford — 37
D’Andre Walker — 32
Kinglsey Keke — 31
Porter Gustin — 28
Rashan Gary — 24
Nick Bosa — 14
Defensive tackles
Quinnen Williams — 55
Dre’Mont Jones — 52
Jerry Tillery — 47
Christian Wilkins — 47
Greg Gaines — 45
Khalen Saunders — 35
Daniel Wise — 35
Jeffery Simmons — 34
Dexter Lawrence — 33
Trysten Hill — 26
Ed Oliver — 26
Gerald Willis III — 26
Armon Watts — 24
Terry Beckner Jr — 23
Pressure percentage
Josh Allen — 29.1%
Anthony Nelson — 23.5%
Oshane Ximines — 23.5%
Jaylon Ferguson — 23.4%
Joe Jackson — 21.7%
Chase Winovich — 21.7%
Montez Sweat — 20.2%
Brian Burns — 19.7%
L.J. Collier — 19.2%
Clelin Ferrell — 18.5%
Jachai Polite — 18.4%
Sutton Smith — 17.6%
Zach Allen — 17.1%
Justin Hollins — 16.8%
Quinnen Williams — 16.7%
Rashan Gary — 15.8%
Ben Banogu — 15.5%
Christian Wilkins — 14.0%
Jalen Jelks — 12.3%
Greg Gaines — 12.2%
Jerry Tillery — 12.2%
Dre’Mont Jones — 11.4%
Ed Oliver — 9.6%
So what can we take from this?
The first list highlights pressures and it’d be very easy to compliment Brian Burns and Ben Banogu at the top end of the list. According to PFF, both players created a lot of pressures in 2018.
However as we see with their pressure percentages, they don’t score as well as some other players. Burns still fares well at 19.7% but Banogu is at 15.5%.
What I would take from that is — Burns and Banogu did record more pressures but they were also afforded more opportunities to make plays as pure speed rushers off the edge. In Burns’ case he still achieved a degree of consistency but Bangou didn’t.
Who impresses the most?
Clearly it’s Kentucky’s Josh Allen. I’ve been trying to work out for a while why he’s seemingly developed into a top-five lock among those with contacts in the league. It was difficult to watch him getting blown up by tight ends and his combine was good not great.
These stats, however, paint a glowing picture. He had a high number of pressures (57) compared to the other draft eligible prospects. Yet he was also by far the most consistent rusher with a pressure percentage of 29.1%. For teams using analytics (I suspect all do these days) this will jump off the page.
LA Tech’s Jaylon Ferguson is also a notable performer (64 pressures at 23.4%). I think these are the players who stand out:
Brian Burns — 66 / 19.7%
Joe Jackson –54 / 21.7%
Jaylon Ferguson — 64 / 23.4%
Josh Allen — 57 / 29.1%
Oshane Ximines — 55 / 23.5%
L.J. Collier — 54 / 19.2%
Anthony Nelson — 53 / 23.5%
Chase Winovich — 53 / 21.7%
Montez Sweat — 48 / 20.2%
Clelin Ferrell — 56 / 18.5%
Zach Allen — 59 / 17.1%
What else do we need to consider?
Competition matters. Josh Allen recorded his pressures in the SEC. That’s a lot harder than the opponents faced by Oshane Ximines and Jaylon Ferguson.
We don’t have all the data. This is all I could find after a couple of hours of combing the internet. PFF doesn’t include the pressure percentages in their draft guide but they do have a ‘pass-rush productivity’ score. They describe it as a calculation to reflect the frequency of pressure generated. All sacks, hits and hurries are added together and broken down on a per-pass-rushing-snap basis.
Here are some notable names and their scores:
Josh Allen — 30.3
Jaylon Ferguson — 26.6
Christian Miller — 24.1
Joe Jackson — 23.1
Montez Sweat — 22.1
Clelin Ferrell — 21.3
Jachai Polite — 20.4
Oshane Ximines — 20.1
Quinnen Williams — 19.7
Anthony Nelson — 19.2
Brian Burns — 18.5
Chase Winovich — 18.2
L.J. Collier — 18.0
D’Andre Walker — 16.6
Christian Wilkins — 16.4
Rashan Gary — 16.2
Ben Banogu — 16.0
Dexter Lawrence — 14.6
Jerry Tillery — 14.3
Dre’Mont Jones — 13.3
Zach Allen — 13.4
Greg Gaines — 13.0
Armon Watts — 12.8
Trysten Hill — 12.2
Jeffery Simmons — 11.8
Khalen Saunders — 11.5
Ed Oliver — 11.4
Gerald Willis III — 10.0
Charles Omenihu — 10.3
Run-stop percentages
Improving the run defense is also a priority for the Seahawks. Here are some key defensive tackle run-stop percentages per PFF:
Quinnen Williams — 14.2%
Christian Wilkins — 11.9%
Gerald Willis III — 11.7%
Jeffery Simmons — 11.4%
Dexter Lawrence — 11.2%
Khalen Saunders — 11.1%
Terry Beckner Jr — 10.7%
Greg Gaines — 9.8%
Ed Oliver — 8.8%
Trysten Hill — 8.7%
Armon Watts — 7.4%
Renell Wren — 6.3%
Daniel Wise — 5.8%
Dre’Mont Jones — 5.4%
Jerry Tillery 3.6%
Here are some of the EDGE/DE run-stop percentages:
Montez Sweat — 12.7%
Chase Winovich — 11.8%
Jonathan Ledbetter — 10.9%
Rashan Gary — 9.9%
Jachai Polite — 9.8%
Jamal Davis — 9.8%
Jalen Jelks — 9.6%
Kinglsey Keke — 9.8%
Maxx Crosby — 8.5%
D’Andre Walker — 8.4%
Zach Allen — 8.4%
Josh Allen — 8.2%
Jaylon Ferguson — 8.2%
Charles Omenihu — 8.0%
Christian Miller — 7.8%
Anthony Nelson — 7.8%
Oshane Ximines — 7.8%
Ben Banogu — 7.7%
L.J. Collier — 6.3%
Clelin Ferrell — 5.7%
Brian Burns — 5.4%
Joe Jackson — 5.0%
Justin Hollins — 4.7%
Other interesting PFF information
— Arkansas linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who will visit the Seahawks, missed only 5% of his tackles (ranked #1 among SEC linebackers).
— Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence had 33 pressures on just 254 pass-rush attempts — giving him 99 total pressures over his three-year stint at Clemson. Not bad for a +340lbs defensive tackle.
— Texas A&M tight end Jace Sternberger, another VMAC visitor, tied first in receiving grade among tight ends as he led the nation in touchdowns and finished second in receiving yards.
— Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry scored a touchdown on 22% of his deep targets.
— Virginia’s Juan Thornill, also making a visit to Seattle, was the only safety in the country to finish with 80.0-plus overall grades in run defense, tackling, pass-rush and coverage while taking at least 15 snaps as a blitzer, at least 200 snaps in run defense and at least 200 snaps in coverage.
— Florida’s Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who met with the Seahawks in the last couple of days, had an 89.9 coverage grade (ranked ninth in the country). He limited receivers to 8.4 yards per reception –- ranking 17th among all cornerbacks targeted at least 25 times in 2018. His 45.6 passer rating when targeted from the slot ranked sixth in the country.
— Only 24 cornerbacks had +250 snaps in the slot in 2018. Of the 24, Iowa’s Amani Hooker ranked fifth — allowing 0.98 yards per snap in coverage.
— Kansas State’s Dalton Risner hasn’t allowed a sack since week five of the 2016 season against West Virginia. That’s a span of 942 pass-blocking snaps without conceding a sack.
— West Virginia quarterback Will Grier averaged the fourth-highest YPA at 9.7 while throwing more deep pass touchdowns than any other quarterback with 20. According to PFF, “he goes down as arguably the best deep-ball thrower over the past two seasons as he’s thrown for more yards (2,850), more touchdowns (36) and more big-time throws (54) on passes targeted at least 20 yards downfield than any other quarterback since 2017″.
Whatever your view of PFF — teams are paying attention to information like this.
VMAC visitors
We can add three more names to the list today. Reports say Virginia safety Juan Thornhill is making a VMAC visit and so is Utah State running back Darwin Thompson and Michigan defensive lineman Rashan Gary.
Here’s the full reported list so far:
Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Dre Greenlaw (LB, Arkansas)
Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Nickel/S, Florida) — could just be a meeting
Darwin Thompson (RB, Utah State)
Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
One of these names is not like the rest. Gary is too athletic and has too much potential to fall out of the top-10.
Ed Oliver’s pro-day hysterics
Everyone’s getting a bit carried away.
That’s not to say Oliver hasn’t had a superb pro-day. He has. Running in the 4.7’s and then managing a 4.22 short shuttle and a 7.15 three cone. Those are all really good marks and he should be a top-15 pick.
However — some context is required.
Ian Rapoport called Oliver’s forty an ‘insane’ time. I replied and noted that Rashan Gary, at a similar size, ran a 4.58 at the combine. There’s a 4lbs difference between the pair and Gary ran at the combine — not a pro-day with a hand-time.
In 2011 Adrian Clayborn ran a 4.13 short shuttle at 281lbs. His forty yard dash was a 4.83 at his combine. Oliver chose not to run at the combine and they often say add 0.10 seconds to a hand-time at a pro-day. So they’re similar athletes.
Henry Anderson was listed at 6-6 and 294lbs at his combine in 2015. He ran a 4.19 shuttle. He didn’t get quite the same publicity.
And then there’s Frank Clark. At 270lbs (about 10lbs lighter than Ed Oliver) he ran a 4.05 short shuttle. Which is incredible really.
I’m not trying to argue that Oliver’s pro-day wasn’t a great success. Clearly he’s an outstanding athlete. Some of the reactions though suggest he’s set a new bar today. When in reality he’s a comparable athlete to Adrian Clayborn.
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Rob , send me your email and i will give you mybusername and password for pff acount.
Thanks dude
The world needs more good people. Good work Millhouse. Good work indeed. Keep feeding the beast that is Rob Staton!
+1
I have sent you. Just let me know if you make to.log amd download draft guide.
Very interesting they are bringing in Gary. Do you think this has any sort of meaning?
Not sure. He’s exactly the type of guy they like — top recruit, incredible physical profile, versatile, needs a bit of coaching.
For me, Gary’s a top-10 lock. So… not sure what this means. Can’t see them gaining a pick to be in range to get him.
Maybe they trade Clark for Gary?
My brother keeps clamoring for a Frank Clark trade, just so they can turn around and use the pick on a rookie that might be as good as him. I say the hell with that. Clark is exactly the kind of player you re-sign. He’s just now coming into his prime and has proven he’s an upper echelon player. What we need to do is take a long hard look at the guys nearing 30 and consider whether or not their best years are behind them (which they seem to be doing as evidenced by the Earl Thomas situation). I really hope they get a deal done with Clark.
I’m all for resigning Clark…but if that is not within the Seahawks range…then maybe they see this as their best opportunity to replace him with a high 1 in this draft.
The due diligence would make sense if a top-10 pick is a possible return for Clark. I bet that’s the intrigue.
Very interesting stats, Rob. I think it’s stats like these that are main drivers in VMAC visit invitations. You make a good point about level of competition. Though, I feel the intangibles can tell you more about a players ability to succeed at the next level. How badly does a player want to succeed in the NFL, what kind of teammate are they etc. I think that was one of the things that allowed Naz Jones to fall to the third round (the jury is still out on his success though).
Rashan Gary would be in play, possibly, if they traded Clark. Otherwise, it’s just due diligence as usual. Joe Jackson could be a very real possibility in rd2.
Earlier in march I asked Rob what round for Joe Jackson and he thought at the time round 4. It seemed reasonable considering his lack of post season workouts. He may be moving up though as we get closer to the draft.
He did run a 40 time of 4.77 at Miami pro day.
That’s a decent time for him. Certainly could see him going a round earlier that I originally said.
Joe Jackson is being vastly underrated. He is the right type for the position we would need him to come in and compete at. The Hawks were a little soft on that side of the line last year with the loss of Avril. See the Dallas game.IMO
Joe Jackson was a first round forecast on some of the Way-To-Early 2019 Mock Drafts last spring, immediately after the 2018 draft. I always like to keep an eye on those things toward clarity.
My belief is everything tends to drift back to the beginning. When fans look at those Way-Too-Early lists everyone instantly looks for the bad forecasts and dismisses the entire lot as meaningless. That is exactly the wrong way to look at it, similar to people who scoff at preseason rankings in college football and basketball. The totality is very astute. You aren’t looking for perfection. There are always great value picks deeper in the draft from players who were once rated quite high, then slipped in preference, for whatever reason.
Another Canes player — cornerback Michael Jackson — was also on several Way-To-Early first round forecasts. Here is one of them: https://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/way-too-early-2019-nfl-mock-draft-38415
I had a similar thought sometime ago about what I believed is the overvalued sack stats that are too often the sole focus determining the quality and value of a pass rusher. Besides the negative yards that are often associated with it, IMO, I would much rather have consistent quarterback disruptions in a game then a splash of sacks. For the Seahawks, shutting down the opponents run game and forcing them to pass into an environment where the QB is facing heavy disruption is a great success formula for the defense. (Let the other teams overvalue sacks and let that stat drive their selections and let us get better value in highly disruptive pass rushers.)
Exciting to envision a defense like that!!!
Go Hawks
Yes. Also, each sack is given the same value. Like garbage time stats in basketball, some sacks are not worth much, while others, at key times in a game, are hard to overvalue.
Totally agree. Sack are great – they are drive killers. However, unless you’re talking about a strip sack most of those drives are still going to end in a punt (or maybe even a field goal). The real money is in those interceptions. Like Pete says, “it’s all about the ball.” The best way to force a QB into mistakes is constant pressure (after taking away his running game), so I am all kinds of on board for considering pressures over sacks!
Interesting read:
https://beastpode.com/2019/03/28/tsteful-discourse-an-interview-with-michael-dickson/
Fun read. Love how analytics have spurred the interest in ST
Darwin Thomas, nice little highlight reel.
Would be fun to pick him up in the later rounds.
Thanks for compiling those stats. Anthony Nelson has to be a serious consideration. His value and athletic profile fit Seattle’s needs right now.
I just wish his tape was better.
Yeah not feeling him at all, really.
If we’re looking at smaller backs, I’m really into Darrell Henderson Jr. He was having a heisman semifinals type year before injuries nicked him up
Oops thought y’all were talking about Darwin Thompson
Second overall in pressure percentages, I think you are not watching all the tape…
I don’t have much time to watch tapes. Thoughts about Nelson vs Ferguson? Based on these stats Ferguson is better at everything (64 vs 53 pressures, 23.4% vs 23.5% the same, 26.6 PFF vs 19.2, 8.2% run stop vs 7.8%).
Ferguson penciled in as EDGE while Nelson as DE (based on draft profile). They have similar weight but Nelson is longer, taller a bit (although Ferguson is also 6-5 with 34 1/2″ arms and 9 1/8″ hands so he’s not a tiny guy either). Ferguson had some sort of a McDonalds fight 4 years ago.
He’s pro day numbers are: 4.75 40-yard dash, 24 reps on the bench, 32-inch vertical jump, 118 broad vs Nelson’s 4.82, 18, 35.5 vert, 118 broad
Feels like Nelson is a safer but much lower ceiling prospect while Ferguson can have issues (motivation and off-field) and can be a bust, but also can be something special.
Dalton Risner *H andled* Banogu
He handled a lot of guys in the Big 12. Bangou looks like a great athlete it not so great football player to me. Wish you could combine Collier and Bangou to make one DE.
I just keep seeing more reasons to love Zach Allen.
I just feel like the 17% pressure rate is a bit low. In hundred snaps he’ll have 6 less pressures then Ferguson or Nelson
Different roles, different levels of competition. Not at all fair to compare them directly. Stats like these can be useful but they aren’t the whole story.
And fwiw 17% is still really good.
Yeah, that’s true. It’s really hard to compare these guys unless you watch tapes all the time. So different in roles, teams, opponents. Like Ed Oliver’s pressures seems ridic low, Nick Bosa had the lowest number of pressures but both of these guys are clear top20 picks.
I feel you don’t really need to factor in production at this state, only tape, athleticism, size, technique, football IQ, attitude. But unless you’re a scout it’s hard to know these kind of things.
I’ve updated the article thanks to millhouse-serbia’s kind generosity.
Lots more data now including run-stop percentages and pass-rush productivity.
Thanks Rob and Millhouse! Great stuff.
Thanks, guys. Great stuff.
“Everything’s coming up Milhouse!”
Haha. This guy ^^^
“Time to score some pity…”
I know Risner is not the most athletic or physically gifted but he is my favourite OL in this class along with Cody Ford. I love the attitude and demeanour that Risner plays with I think he is going to be an incredibly solid 10 yr pro and team leader wherever he goes.
Reminds me a little of how Tyler Locket came out of KSt. Great leader and production but lacked the physical profile to be a 1st round pick and the Hawks got a steal.
I dont think the Hawks take an OL in the first 3 rounds it if they did then I hope Risner is the guy.
I can’t remember who it was against but one of the first games I watched Risner — he was absolutely destroyed and dumped flat on his back. One of the worst reps I’ve seen from an offensive lineman. I found that hard to shake afterwards. Was also really tough watching L.J. Collier manhandle him at the Senior Bowl. That said, Risner also had some good reps in Mobile, he had some good games, it’s hard to argue with the PFF note in this article and I like his character. Plus there was that great moment when he was the rabbit at the combine.
Yeah like I mentioned he is not the greatest athlete and I agree he struggled some at the Senior Bowl but he shows up when the lights come on. Everytime I see him he just seems to have such great energy and be leading the group he is in. He is really versatile as well. An NFL guard but he can obviously play OT in a pinch.
I dont think the Hawks go OL early anyways it I will be tracking Risner as a pro because he just seems like a real fun, competitive character.
Jace Sternberger is one of my absolute favorite players in the entire draft. I have been beyond baffled why he hasn’t received more attention and hype until recently. Two months ago I asked the CommonManFootball guy on YouTube to do an analytic analysis on Sternberger. It is clearly an example of a smart crafty player who is just learning how to play the game and will likely surge in confidence upon another year or two. I think he’ll be superior to some of the tight ends rated above him in this class, and others who have gone in the first round in recent drafts.
I won’t say it’s exactly like Derwin James last year since James had more long term excellence and examples of freakish ability. But Sternberger’s upside is likewise severely understated.
*Disclaimer* I know this is a very surface level analysis, but… He looks a little undersized to me, and while this is far from a criticism, he seemed to always be pretty wide open on the catches I’ve seen him make. Do we have evidence that he can make the contested catches that he will no doubt need to make to be successful in the NFL?
Great article on DL productivity Rob, but shouldn’t DE and DT be seperated, especially in the ‘pass-rush productivity’ score?
Probably yes but I’ve been accumulating data at different stages today and updating the piece. I didn’t separate the earlier info.
As for the visit for Gary at VMAC. Perhaps the market for Frank really is a top 15 pick and they are covering thier bases. Would be a little ironic if they replaced one Wolverine with another. Kind of similar athletes.
If other teams are willing to part with a top 15 pick, AND sign him to huge contract… Why wouldn’t you prefer to just sign him to a huge contract?? By that logic he’d be a bargain! KEEP FRANK!
1, rookie might need a year or two to get up to NFL speed
2, Rookies are always riskier players than vets
So it’s not necessarily about talent level. The question is this:
Do we want a more safe option, who can contribute day 1 and by that lose ~8-15 mil CAP space for the next 5 years (18-20 mil minus the rookie’s contract)?
Per Pauline on Virginia Pro Day:
Looks like he shed 7 pounds to test better though. From Shrine Game: 6017, 204, 32 1/4 arm, 76 3/8 wing, 9 3/4 hand.
That speed didn’t really show up though vs. Jamal Custis:
https://twitter.com/ADiCeccoNFL/status/1085190006363148288
Also worth noting that he was a 6th-year senior and has an injury history.
Simmons is an outstanding talent it’s just the injury. And most teams want an impact player with their first pick.
The Raiders should be all over him with one of thier picks in the 20s. Also The Pats and Indy have a ton of draft capital this year and the roster depth to add a top 5-10 talent and wait a year on him. My guess is he ends up NE, Indy, Raiders or GB.
Not sure I understand the Seahawks willing to take a lesser talent in the late 1st or 2nd because of wanting an impact player in the rookie season.
The chances of getting Bobby Wagner type production out of this range in a rookie season seems extremely rare. Christine Michael, P-Rich, Britt, Ifedi, Reed, Pocic,McDowell, Penny and Clark have been all their picks in this range since Wagner. Clark probably had the most rookie impact out those guys, but he was only available because of his arrest for the domestic issue.
Jaylon Smith had far worse injuries than Simmons and was still taken at #34. What I’d love to happen, is trade down to #30-#32 hopefully picking up an extra 3rd and 4th, then pick-up Simmons with that pick so they still have the 5th year out of him.
#32 Simmons
3rd DE
3rd S
4th WR
4th CB
5th TE
Now they have Suh and Fletcher Cox potential waiting to bust out in 2020.
I’m still a football noob, so there’s probably way more to it than I know.
The Seahawks have never taken a ‘redshirt’ injury prospect with their first pick under PCJS.
Availability is important when you’re considering the first pick in a draft. You’re writing off a whole year of club control and cheap production. Sure, some rookies don’t have the impact you hope. But you never draft a player with that in mind. You hope for production, even if it doesn’t happen.
I’ll be shocked if Seattle takes Simmons. Too many holes exist for 2019.
I agree with that completely. I posted on Simmons earlier today. Watched a bunch of Miss St games yesterday to check out Sweat and Abrams and he jumped off the screen. Best player on the field even against Alabama. He and Q Williams are different players but neck and neck IMO. Simmons dominated and was doubled teamed literally on almost every play.
Rob would you consider Gary a comp for Frank physically?
No — Frank is one of the rarest players I’ve covered on the blog. Running a 4.05 short shuttle at 270lbs is unreal. His tape was incredible — power, speed, agility. The complete package. A true DE/EDGE who pretty much could’ve played in any scheme.
Rashan Gary to me is more of an inside/out player. Different body type. I’d want him kicking inside. Still a brilliant athlete — great speed and agility. But different to Frank.
Thanks I have not watched any tape on Gary because I did not view him as an option.
Frank really is a freak and it shows on tape. When he is on he can embarrass NFL OL men.
What caused Frank to fall to the 2nd round? Was it off-field stuff?
Ton of stuff at Michigan and he was kicked off team. Hawks took a ton of heat in media for even picking him.
Great to see him mature and be a model citizen and team mate.
He was arrested for domestic violence and dismissed by Michigan. I believe he accepted a plea and the serious charges were dismissed.
1 assault I’m willing to over look but when he did it again to Ifeldi that’s when red flags appeared in my head. Then I had to watch Ifeldi have a crappy season and watch Seahawk fans criticize him. I was so upset it wasn’t fair. I challenge anyone to take a punch like that and see how long it takes you to recover. If you add Frank Clark’s Tommy John surgery’s I think it’s rational to be concerned about giving Frank tons of $$. I’m not saying it’s wrong to keep Frank because I don’t have the information Pete does. But if they trade him it won’t bother me at all.
I have done mock draft with my friends last 10 days. 16 of us, and everyone takes 2 teams. We have done that on forum and when someone.is online and “on the clock” he choose the pick. I menage to trade back and take 30+75 from GB. I didnt get offer for another trade so I need to take one of available players at 30. It was between Simmons, Lawrence.and CGJ and I took Simmons.
With 75 I.took McLaurin and with 84 I.picked Savage.
We.are currently at 94th pick.
I.hope.Drew Samia will be available for 4th round pick.
That sounds like it would be a blast.
I would do backflips and be the happiest Hawks fan ever with that draft!
Simmons, McLaurin and Savage would be a dream draft for me.
Would’ve preferred Dex Lawrence if he was available, but Simmons has a lot of good traits and might fit better with our current personnel. Have the Seahawks ever employed a 340+DT? I know Red Bryant was a big guy, but seems like we prefer smaller, quicker DL across the board.
Really really like your selections
Lawrence will be a top 15 pick.
Simmons no clue.
That injury is the real red flag. Hard to redshirt any draft pick day 1/2. I think he’ll fall, but not enough to make an FO like us bite
Really like Lawrence as well. Talk about an instant fix for the run defense.
I would also be doing backflips. Fingers crossed. 🙂
Looking through all this data, I really just keep coming back to two names:
Christian Miller
D’Andre Walker
Measurables:
Miller: 6033, 247, 35 1/8 arm, 9 3/4 hand, 82.25 wing
Walker:6023, 251, 34 1/4 arm, 9 7/8 hand, 81.75 wing
2018 production:
Miller: 14 games, 8 sacks, 11 TFL
Walker: 12 games, 7.5 sacks, 11 TFL
Total pressures:
Miller: 39
Walker: 32
Pass-rush productivity score:
Miller: 24.1
Walker: 16.6
Run stop percentages:
Miller: 7.8%
Walker: 8.4%
Miller will run a 40 at a 2nd pro day on April 2nd. At pro day, he tested very explosive (so I’m expecting a great 10yd split) but just average in short-area agility.
Walker I’m not sure when he will be able to work out. Maybe just on private visits.
And going with the theme of APM guys, check out this from Jim Nagy a couple months ago:
D’Andre Walker 2018 Highlights
https://youtu.be/ZveNozaSHJQ
Continue to fly under the radar, my friends!
Man I wonder where Miller goes…
Miller > walker, in my view.
I may be wrong, but I think you can’t do any field drills during top 30 visit. Only conversation and medicals.
So we have visited with three safeties already, that tells you something…
Does it though?
They have 30 visits. The breakdown of what was become public so far is:
Safety — 3
DL – 2
WR – 1
TE – 1
RB – 1
LB – 1
There’s another 21 visits.
And it’s not a surprise they’re checking out the safety class considering they performed better than expected at the combine. Intel is required here to get a grasp on many of them.
But trying to parse the visits is a thankless task. It’s more an interesting note than an indicator.
Hmm there is Anthony Nelson again.
Seahawks going for a safety early. Thornhill might be the one.
He’s really instinctive and aggressive. Looks like a fit, but I think he’ll go earlier than we’d like for a backup safety. Saying that we did draft Christine Michael when we had Beast at his peak.
I don’t think he’d be drafted as a backup. Are you happy with Bradley and Delano as the starting safeties? I’m not.
I’m not in that room. They have their own evals on their guys. They are looking at safeties that are in the 2-3 range but I think Thornhill is closer to rd 1 than 3 imo
Let’s not forget that Bradley McDougald will be 29 years old this season (a year and a half younger than Earl). If they do take a safety in this draft there’s a good chance he won’t be considered a backup for too long.
Not gonna happen.
er why. I didn’t say first pick. Just early. Round 2 or 3. Why is it not going to happen. Explain.
I think they rate their current group really highly and will look for competition on day 3 after some of these guys have already gone. Thornhill should probably be gone before our second selection.
Not sure, they will always be trying to throw up smokescreens before the draft.
Which is why it’s interesting to me that they’ve met with 4 safeties that we know of and they are all of great variance in draft range
Savage, Adderly, Gardner-Johnson, Thornhill, guess they’re all in that same range actually.
Coulda sworn we talked to Marvell Tell, can’t source tho
Disclaimer: My assessment will only be based on numbers, not tape, not athletic profile, not ceiling, not competition, just based on the numbers read in this post.
Based on these data and their projected draft status, I think these guys could work for us with our first pick (late 1st/early 2nd):
DE/EDGE:
Jaylon Ferguson. 64 pressure, 23.4% rate, 26.6 PFF pressure points are great. These numbers jump out. 8.2% run stop percentage is good too
Anthony Nelson: 53 pressures are fine. 23.5% rate is good, 19.2 PFF points a bit low, but OKish. 7.8% run stop seems OK
DTs:
Dre’Mont Jones: 52 pressures are superb, 11.4% is fine, 13.3 PFF points solid. 5.4% run stop seems a bit low, probably more of a pass rusher DT.
Jerry Tillery: 47 pressures with 12.2% rate, 14.3 points. Only red flag is 3.6% run stop rate
Who was left out?
DEs:
Zach Allen — Not sold. Much better guys with first pick. 59 pressure looks good, but only 17% which is bad regarding the rest of the first pick guys (usually over 20%). 8.4% run stop percentage is avg/good
Chase Winovich — Overall solid, but with short hands I feel solid is a bit too little to consider. His stats are middle of the pack. Only the run stop jumps out
Brian Burns — 66 pressure is awesome. But 19.7% is a bit on the lower side. 5.4% run stop is just really-really low. He could be a rush specialist, but I feel that’s too limited for the first pick.
L.J. Collier — Worse/same numbers than Winovich. I’d like run stop to be 8%+ pressure% should be over 20
DTs:
Trysten Hill — Based on these numbers I wouldn’t pick Hill. 26 pressure is a bit low. Same with PFF points (12.2). 8.7% run stop is solid, but could find better prospect later.
To be honest, I would might wait. There are guys with similar or better numbers than these. Obviously these players are not just these 3-4 numbers. The numbers don’t tell you about double teams, opponents, etc.
With our second pick (3rd round):
DEs:
Oshane Ximines – Probably my favorite DE based on the stats. 55 pressure is really good. 23.5% percentage is among the best. 20.1 PFF points is solid. 7.8% run stop is good
Joe Jackson – Similar stats to Ximines. Bit lower percentage but bit higher PFF points, but worse run stop (5%). Probably a rush specialist who can finish passrush a bit better then Ximines.
DTs:
Khalen Saunders — 35 pressure does not jump out, but seems OK. Don’t have the %. 11.5 PFF points a bit lower then the previous two’s. But he has 11.1% run stop which is much better than Tillery’s and Dre’Mont’s number (double or more of their numbers)
Guys missed out:
DEs:
Ben Banogu – 60 pressure is really nice, but 15,5% is really low compared to others. 16 PFF points is low too. 7.7% run stop is avg.
Charles Omenihu — 38 pressure is a bit low, 10 PFF points are really low.
DTs:
Gerald Willis III – His run stop is really good (11.7%), but he’s worse than Saunders in every aspect, and Saunders is also a good run stopper.
In the 4th round:
DEs:
Sutton Smith — 65 pressures are ridic high. His 17.6% pressure rate is fine, although lower than the previous guys’. Don’t have run stop number for him.
Maxx Crosby — 55 pressures are among the top. Don’t have other pressure metrics, but 8.5% run stop percentage is solid.
DTs:
Greg Gaines — Based on the numbers, Gaines seems like the absolute best price/value prospect. 45 pressures are really good. 12.2% pressure rate is among the best. 13.0 PFF points also really high. 9.8% run stop is also really good.
Daniel Wise — With 35 pressure and 5.8% run stop rate he feels like not awful, but mediocre at everything. In the 4th round it might be OK as a rotational/depth piece, but might be better value in the 5th round
Left out:
DEs:
Justin Hollins — 41 pressures are not high, 16.8% is also pretty meh 4.7% run stop is simply bad
Jalen Jelks — 43 pressures is bad 12.3% is a really low percentage. 9.6% is really good, but we probably want pressure instead of sealing the edge capability.
So based on these numbers, I’d pick Gaines (DT) in the 4th round and Ximines (DE) in the 3rd
If we want a more explosive athlete, earlier we could go with Jaylon Ferguson for DE. I’m not sold on any of the late 1st/early second DTs. Both Jones and Tillery has solid rush numbers, but really bad run stop rate. I feel Saunders or Gaines could provide better value based on where they picked and how rounded prospects they are…
BUT these are just numbers and don’t tell the whole picture. I feel there are OK depth for the DL in this draft, but not sure about how much the earlier guys can provide as a plus
Bringing in Gary for an official seems curious to me. Why use one of the visits for him unless they think there is a real chance they could get him?
Maybe they’ve had offers and are angling for a Frank trade?
I’m not saying I smell a fire, but where there’s smoke….
Maybe they are gathering intel in case he makes it into the division. Gary is a top 15 if not top 10 lock.
I love your site. Thank you for helping us with less knowledge. The Seahawks will sign Wilson. No question!
I’m against signing Clark. Trade him this year or next. The meat of this draft is in rounds 2-5. Trade him this year for picks there. We cannot fall in love with very many of our players. This is a business and the decisions
should be logical, not emotional. This was a contract year for Clark and I think his production was a mirage.
I think Clark is exactly the player you sign. Hes young, just entering his prime, and is a leader in the locker room. Not sure why you think his production is a mirage, he’s put up 9, 10, 13 sacks in the last 3 years. Seems highly motivated, and not just by money. The data says he’s a very good player.
Jarran Reed might be more what you are thinking tbh. Reed has been good, but 10.5 sacks is a lot for a DT and I honestly doubt he’ll replicate it. He got a lot of sacks on stunts and twists, not so much by dominating other lineman (at least to my eyes). I’d rather sign Frank, trade Reed, and draft two DTs this year.
Should add that ideally I’d rather not trade any of them, just saying if we have to trade somebody for picks (we don’t/won’t)
You won’t get anywhere near as much in return for Reed though
I love Reed and after this season I would not be surprised if Reed cements himself as a better player than Clark.
To me the hardest part is to see where would PCJS want a first year starter. Which position where we don’t want a situational or rotational player, not just a depth, competition, not a project, but a clear starter.
How do they feel about David Moore? About Brown or Darboh? Do they think any of these guys can be legit WR3? What do they think about the Baldwin-situation? Do they think Turner, Reynolds or Scott could take a leap, take the opportunity?
Is there a reason to pick a WR early?
Do they really love Hill? Do they think T2 can be better? How important the safety position currently? Do they want an ETIII type single high safety? How do they like the depth of Luani and Ewans?
Picking a safety in R1/R2 would mean it is probably his job to loose. Are they ready to put Hill in a position to use him only as big nickel or push back to being depth or fighting for the starting job seriously?
As for outside pressure… What are they thinking about Naz? Will he be good at 5T? Do they wanna use Green on the inside or outside more? Do they think he can make the next step? How do PCJS see Clark’s future? Will Jefferson and Jackson play more from the inside or outside? What do they think about them? Can Martin be a regular EDGE guy? Is the outside a position where they think they need a guy like Clark or just a bit better than Naz/QJeff?
And for the inside. Apart from Reed and Poona, who can play well there? Do we need a space eater, needs double blocking, run stuffer big boy, or a leaner guy who can rush the passer with quick moves and agility? (other topic: I like PJ Johnson, not a tall DT, but 323 pounds, Tony Pauline thinks he’s similar to Damon Harrison, probably 6th/7th rounder or UDFA)
Hard to see where is the actual need. We could use guys in all the above mentioned positions in my opinion, but I don’t see which is the biggest need. To be honest, currently I see we would be better with four 3rd round, five 4th round and two 5th round picks. I feel the hard cliffs will only come for WR and safety in the second round. DL cliff is top15-20, TEs will most likely go in the 3rd.
I think if we’d select a WR or S with the first pick it could generate bigger impact, but I think they view DL as a bigger need
After the news about DB….the biggest need in my mind is to get a play making WR out of the draft (easier said than done). The Seahawks offense looks pretty pedestrian without one.
My response to this would be:
1. Tyler Lockett is a playmaker
2. Seattle didn’t exactly have an array of WR studs when they went to two SB’s
Pedestrian WR corps iirc
Or they were studs and nobody knew it yet. WR absolutely a priority — and a focus under Pete, even in a running offense. The’ve coveted WR’s all along — Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett; big resources allotted under PCJS.
Rob you agree that WR is both a roster fit and a value fit in the top of the 2nd round. It’s as likely as any position to be the pick, and unless the DL of their choosing (similar to Rashaad Penny at RB a year ago) falls to wherever they end up, my money is that they address it there. Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin are my early favorites.
Receiver is definitely a possibility. D-line is the bigger need but they could go WR first. It depends when the rush starts and how far they trade back.
They were fine.
Thinking along the same line, Pete likes the roster, which 1st pick would play the most? DL is a need, but can we plug in a starter and still trade back enough to find the overall depth we need? A WR or even TE could play more than a rotational DT or undersized edge given the injuries going into camp and the players on the roster we know Pete likes. They like DB’s in later rounds. If we sign a FA DT I am thinking they take a WR they like (30’s) similar to the Penny pick before the run on WR. I also think Wesco might be the “must have” guy with the second pick, I would love to see him at FB.
Id take that WR group over any group they’ve had before or since that SB…
Rob, I’m curious if we have any data about Jacob Martin in college as far as pressure %. Obviously the data is still useful for this draft class, but I’m curious if there is a correlation to past picks.
I doubt we’ll be able to find out. I don’t have access to PFF data from 2018.
Yea, that’s sort of what I expected. Will be interesting to see how the analytics breakdown who we pick.
No idea how many snaps he played or if that data is out there, but he had 40 total pressures in his final college season.
There’s that TE under 7.10 3 cone wise.
Ole Miss’ Dawson Knox with a 6.81 3 cone. 4.51-4.57 40, 34.5″ vert, and is 6’4, 254 lbs.
TCU LB Ty Summers (6’1, 240 lbs.) met with Seattle at his pro day.
I’m a tad dubious on that time simply because it’s so different to his 7.12 at the combine. Maybe he’s been training for the three cone… but would be a little surprised. But clearly he’s very good at the drill.
If Seattle wanted him they’ll have to take him in the top-40.
IDK if he goes top 40. That’s rich for a guy who has almost identical #’s to George Kittle, is nowhere near as physical as Kittle, and zero TD receptions this year.
I think his floor will be Denver at #41.
Assuming Noah Fant goes early (and Hockenson is a lock to) — there isn’t another upside TE like Knox in this draft. Jim Nagy was touting him as a first rounder today. The Kittle reference actually works in his favour. Teams are actively looking for ‘the next Kittle’ now. Plus there’s a reason for the lack of production. They simply didn’t use the TE in the passing game.
Also worth noting his lack of production likely also stems from him only recently switching to TE after his first couple years in the program – lots of upside and untapped potential with him either way
Ole Miss’ offense is awful too. Go routes, go routes, go routes.
Fair point in regards to Kittle.
That’s terrible value IMO.
Rob,
I have read articles recently about how it is hard to scout TE’s because they are not utilized properly in college and they look for traits. When you see a prospect like Knox with minimal stats how do you project out future ability in the passing game?
Personally I watch the combine drills, look for catching technique and how fluid they are running routes. Testing results are key. I thought Knox had a terrific combine. He jumped off the screen doing the drills.
Incredible on that 4th bag.
https://mobile.twitter.com/smccloverjr/status/1111427533579251712
That’s sick, I can’t stop watching it.
This isn’t hyperbole. Has anyone had a worse pre-draft process than Jachai Polite?
And UMASS WR Andy Isabella. That’s a guy who has zero catch radius, the ultimate body catcher, and will need to go to a team that has a highly accurate, almost pinpoint passing attack that also gives their QB a pocket to operate from because his game is 100% predicated on seperating.
Agreed completely on Isabella. Plus I can’t shake the Senior Mobile. Watching him release was like watching a Justin Timberlake video. Where as Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin were lightning quick, minimal movement and got open immediately. Isabella looked like he was trying out some moves for the weekend.
Hunter Renfrow is a better prospect than Isabella in terms of that type of receiver.
+1 Isabella
Teams believe Collier can play the three or five technique at the next level.
He’s receiving a lot of interest from the Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.
From Tony Pauline.
Of course he can. That’s also a big need for Seattle. Naz Jones and Rasheem Green (don’t think that’s his best fit anyways) are unproven there. QJeff is a nice rotational, piece. They took McDowell 2 years ago to fill that role.
All those guys and a draft pick will create some good competition too.
In your opinion, what is Green best fit?
I think you can slide him inside at times and in certain packages, but a Traditional 4-3 DE. Base end.
* 4i tech
But he’s still so young and raw that maybe he adds weight and ends up as a pure 5-tech.
Guess what I’m saying is, I don’t really know what they have in him quite yet and that might be the challenge they’re facing.
Green was always seen as a “redshirt” kind of guy as a rookie. The book on him was that if he stayed in college this past year he could be a round 1 type guy this year. I think this holds true. Flashed at times last year but I don’t think the was mature enough from multiple standpoints to make an impact last year. He did get top level coaching and i would expect a jump this year with following year being the true breakout just like Reed.
I agree with that.
I just meant I don’t really know what his best role will be going forward. I doubt they see him as a set the edge/containment player 1st and foremost. Probably wanna take advantage of that athleticism to get after the passer.
He might just be a D-lineman. A guy they move all along the line. Labels, positions, even formations are starting to get more and more muddied.
Seahawks have a private workout scheduled with Monmouth WR Reggie White, jr. (6’2, 208 lbs.)
4.45 40
6.77 3 cone
10’0″ broad
37.5″ vert
Corrion Ballard has an official visit with the Seahawks. Possible corner convert from safety.
I think the trio of Jaron Brown, David Moore, and potentially Amara Darboh is better than we give it credit for. Solid, hard-working, sure-handed players if nothing else (much like the corp we won the super bowl with).
I agree about Brown and Moore. Darboh really has not shown anything yet. Hope his is his breakout year.
Moore’s catch rate was under 50% (worst on the team)..would like to understand that better before penciling him into the starting line-up. Brown seems like j.a.g. to me. Darboh..who knows??
In retrospect, the Super Bowl winning WR corps was arguably the most talented group the Seahawks have ever assembled (Tate, Baldwin, Kearse and Sidney Rice). We also got almost 100 catches out of our tight ends that year (Z Miller and Willson).
Looking at the pressure rates and stats lines up quite a bit with the eye test. I had Bosa, Burns, Sweat, Allen, Ferrell as my top 5 edge rushers in that order and all had good pressure stats.
One other thing to consider along with level of completion would be who else they had on the DL. For example Allen and Burns were the complete focus of offensive lines. Sweat had Simmons taking a double team on every play and Ferrell had Lawerence and Wilkins.
I prefer Burns but Allen’s stat really do jump off the page.
If D.K. Metcalf or Montez Sweat is on the board at 21 JS is going to have restrain Pete from jumping up the make the pick rather than trading back.
Both guys have flaws but are very rare physical specimens that Pete has always coveted even back to his USC days.
If Metcalf drops that far it’s ideal. Think we’ll see plenty of interest to get ahead of Baltimore for him.
+1 we’ll be counting on the late run on WR and DB to trade back imo
Nah. John Harbaugh said certain types of receivers won’t want to play in Baltimore. He meant wide receivers with talent. He’s allergic to the type.
A little off topic but I just found this and found it interesting and thought I’d pass it along.
If quarterback arm velocity is anything similar in meaning to the often used phrase “arm strength”, this source would seem to indicate 1) Grier is at the top in QB velocity in 2019 and 2) Grier may even have a stronger arm than RW. Interesting lists of QB velocity here:
https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2019/10243/dh/
Very interesting. Kind of proves that Grier’s arm strength isn’t a problem at all. It’s simply the footwork and the way he throws on occasion that impacts his velocity.
Didnt Shotty help RW with his footwork prior to his statistically best season to date? Grier coming here making alot more sense for leverage and for dev. Shotty grooming Grier for a year or 2 makes my mind wonder about that franchise tag for Russ. Food for thought for us, and this team most definitely!
Thanks as always for the solid coverage this year Rob! the off season would not be the same without you and this community!
Thanks for reading Brandon
Rob, do you think PCJS want to stay in the first after the trade down? Or does it not matter as long as they get two picks in the first two days?
Depends who’s on the board and who they end up targeting. Last year I’m pretty sure they were zoned in on Penny and were only willing to trade down into a range where they could get him unless they received an amazing trade offer. This year it’ll likely be the same. Whoever their ‘guy’ is — they’ll make sure they get him. With Malik McDowell and Paul Richardson they knew they could trade back significantly. With Penny they felt they couldn’t. By draft time they’ll have a plan to trade back but it’ll include a target in mind.
Do you think any of the Safeties they’ve visited will be taken with one of their first 2 picks? As in “their guy”?
We’ve spoken to guys all up and down the day 2 range. Smokescreen making the league think we zig into an Earl replacement (mythical) while we actually zag and ignore the position group in the early rounds, betting on our guys and philosophy of competition
I don’t think they will take a safety with their first pick. Second? Maybe. I think they are doing a lot of homework because nobody really expected these guys to perform as well as they did at the combine.
But then it depends how far they trade down and when other players are off the board. If the run on WR’s happens early, if the top DL’s are gone and if they don’t want to go QB (or their guy has been taken) it changes a lot.
Any thoughts on Tim Harris CB from Virginia? Was once thought to be a pretty good prospect before injuries, but he stayed healthy thus past season. Has the size and length Seahawks like…
Posted on him yesterday just above.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/pressure-percentages-for-the-2019-draft-class#comment-432947
Ah, sorry I missed that…
Cards having dinner with Nick Bosa.
Let the remocks begin lol
Idk, I’ve seen reports that they have decided on Murray, the next day they scheduled that with Bosa. I think they’re doing their research in case he goes to SF
Ahh yes. That time of year where teams expect everyone be a 1st or 2nd rounder.
BIG if true.
I was thinking this earlier today. We’ve reached the point where the media is reporting that there will be 124 top-50 picks this year.
lol. I’m laughing because it’s true.
I think everyone that follows the draft is a bit guilty of this. I’d love to do a vertical board this year.
I’d like even more to see what you would come up with
I’d love to see a full Staton big board.
I know, huge ask
Me this time of year: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r3hTwsvJV_A
I laugh at this every year. Everyone is a top 50 or 100 pick. lol
Danny Shelton could fill a significant role in the DL rotation for stopping the run. Would a $2.5mil prove it deal work to get him back home in the PNW?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/0ap3000001017346/Danny-Shelton-wins-NFL-Way-To-Play-award-for-Super-Bowl-LIII
PC mentioned in a radio interview that more pass rushers are needed by Seattle. He pretty much said the draft would be the place to find a couple of them. I would not overlook a DE and DT being taken within the first 3 or 4 picks.
He mentioned he liked the safeties they have and the overall depth at almost every position.
This draft will be about creating depth, more than uncovering starters out of the box.
My take is when we are looking at players who are not quite complete players, they might be higher on the Seahawks draft list than more established or polished players.
I’m also wondering of OL/OG might be an earlier target? Michael Jordan (C/G) out of OHST seems to really fit what they are building on the OL. He is a supposed round 2 or 3 prospect, so this lines up where Seattle might have some draft ammo to spend.
I could certainly see them having interest in Michael Jordan and Isaiah Prince for that matter. But you’re right — they’re probably R2-3 types. And the Seahawks are probably going to address other needs first (DL, WR, maybe QB).
Uhhh…
Prairie View LB Quinton Bell (6’3, 238 lbs.) Worked out as a LB, DE, and DB
4.38 40
41.5″ vert
1.5 10 yd
11’4″ broad
7.09 3 cone
4.31 SS
You need an EDGE defender?
* Is a former WR too
* 33 5/8″ arms
Only guy since Vernon Davis to weigh 235+, run under 4.4, and vert at least 40″ in the last 20 years.
Holy crap lol he can play anywhere but OL and DT. I’d love to get him, what round do you think vol?
With those #’s someone will take a shot on him somewhere during late day 3 (LR5-R7).
Those are incredible #s. Have you seen him play at all?
I haven’t.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9MidqWi6MqU7ixtGG1pjtA He speed does show up on film. Perhaps SS/OLB reminds me of Kam, but faster.
Holy smokes
That NFL.com trap I talked about back in February has never been more apparent than Bucky Brooks mocking Jaylon Ferguson in the 1st based off his stats. No bend or COD, tape was mediocre at best, not much there to project as a top 35-40 guy.
Here’s a quick look at what I’m thinking this years draft for Seattle. I see the DL needing the most help and I’ve really been looking at the WR. DL and WR have a lot to do with the future of this team. The questions are will they be able to keep Frank Clark and Jarran Reed. We actually lost 2 DL to the Minnesota Vikings in FA and I’m not sure if Quinton Jefferson and Nazair Jones are ready to step up or how much longer they have on this team. The WR has Lockett and Baldwin but I feel it time that we need to finds 2 WR to take the slot and a number 3 WR opposite of Lockett. A TE wouldn’t hurt cause Vannet contract is up this year and I thing Dissly I think will start on the Pup list.
Here we go I think Seattle trades down multiple times to get into the 40 to 50 spot to get their guy. I believe 21 is a good pick for a trade to happen getting a 1 and a 3 round pick. I could see the patriots using their 1 and 3 to move up to get T.J. Hockenson with Gronk retiring but no matter how it goes I see Seattle trading for what picks they can get till they hit there spot. I’ll let you choose those picks.
40-50 Jaylon Ferguson DE Lousiana Tech
84 Trysten Hill DT UCF
124 David Sills V WR WV
159 Foster Moreau TE LSU
With multiple trades backs at the beginning I pretty sure we get a 6th in there somewhere and with that I would take John Ursua WR Hawaii. There still 2 more picks in the trade down but I don’t think if its a 3rd it won’t be low enough in the round to get a Will Grier but maybe a Marvin Tell III S USC and with a 4th or 5th pick we got Well I don’t want to give away all my secrets so I’ll leave the last one for you all to decide.
That was my thoughts so far and they are subject to change.
The guy still in FA is C.J. Anderson RB for Rams. He’s as physical back with a lot of gas left as a backup and he proved it in the Rams run in the playoffs. Bring him in and see what ya got:
https://sports.yahoo.com/former-los-angeles-rams-running-back-cj-anderson-frustrated-feels-disrespected-in-free-agency-054057382.html
I think the Hawks will come to a long term deal with Clark as it seems to be in everyone’s best interest.
If the can’t before draft day then I really hope they trade him instead of loosing him for at 2021 3rd round comp pick.
The deal that makes the most sense to me would be Frank to the Colts for #26 and #59. The Colts are a legit contender and Frank could put them over the top. They also have the cap space and pick #34 and 6 more picks in the draft to soften the blow.
That would give the Hawks #21, 26,59 so 3 in he top 60. They could likely trade down from #21 and end up with 5 + picks in Rounds 1-3. That would be huge in this draft.
Then they could add a couple of Vets like Anzah and Perry once they don’t count against the comp pick quota. Just as a short term answer till the young guys develop.
The Colts aren’t in that mindset though. They went into free agency with over $100m to spend and barely touched the market. They’re setting out to build through the draft. Giving up two high picks just to give a player $20m a year doesn’t seem like a Chris Ballard move.
Exactly. Just like all the talk of the Patriots moving up for our pick. Though they have moved up before, their pattern is to be the team that gets more picks over and over again.