Are the Seahawks really letting Tom Cable pick his guys? Or are they looking for explosive athletes to combat the likes of Aaron Donald?
The Seahawks drafted three offensive linemen last year — Terry Poole, Mark Glowinski and Kristjan Sokoli. All three players passed had:
— At least a 9″ broad jump
— A cumulative score in TEF that matches Seattle’s ideal physical profile (31 inch vert, 9″ broad, 27 bench reps)
If you missed it here’s an explanation of what TEF (Trench Explosion Formula) is and why it matters.
Here’s every offensive lineman drafted in 2015 along with their TEF scores:
(ID = insufficient data to calculate)
Brandon Scherff — 2.90
Ereck Flowers — 3.07
Andrus Peat — ID
Cedric Ogbuehi — ID
Laken Tomlinson — 2.95
Donovan Smith — 3.02
Mitch Morse — 3.45
Jake Fisher — ID
Rob Havenstein — 2.34
Ty Sambrailo — 2.52
Ali Marpet — 3.09
Jeremiah Poutasi — 2.49
A.J. Cann — 3.19
Hroniss Grasu — ID
Jamon Brown — ID
John Miller — 2.91
Chaz Green — 2.67
Daryl Williams — 2.56
T.J. Clemmings — 2.95
Tre Jackson — 2.23
Arie Kouandjio — ID
Jamil Douglas — 2.76
Andrew Donnal — 2.71
Jon Feliciano — 2.43
Terry Poole — 3.12
Shaq Mason — 3.02
Max Garcia — 2.89
Mark Glowinski — 3.34
Jarvis Harrison — 2.77
Robert Myers — ID
Tayo Fabuluje — 2.29
Tyrus Thompson — 2.74
Ian Silberman — 2.94
Andy Galik — 2.62
Kristjan Sokoli — 3.75
Cody Wichmann — 2.55
Anthony Morris — 2.88
Austin Reiter — ID
Jake Rodgers — 2.81
Bobby Hart — 2.36
Austin Shepherd — 2.25
Corey Robinson — 3.04
Laurence Gibson — 3.16
Trenton Brown — 2.23
Denzelle Good — 2.76
Of the 45 drafted offensive linemen, only 11 scored a +3.00 using TEF. Ereck Flowers, Donovan Smith, Mitch Morse and Ali Marpet were all off the board before Seattle’s first pick — leaving only seven available to the Seahawks.
Pete Carroll and John Schneider have not drafted a single offensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms since 2010. That would also rule out A.J. Cann and Shaq Mason — meaning five TEF qualified linemen available.
Of that five, the Seahawks drafted three:
R4 Terry Poole
R4 Mark Glowinski
R6 Kristjan Sokoli
R7 Corey Robinson
R7 Laurence Gibson
Considering the arm length issue with Cann and Mason, the Seahawks didn’t actually pass on ANY TEF qualified lineman between Ali Marpet leaving the board and Terry Poole being selected. In fact after Marpet’s selection before Seattle’s second round pick, they proceeded to draft the next three TEF qualifiers to leave the board.
It looks like a calculated decision, just like the selection of Justin Britt in 2014 (explained here).
The evidence continues to stack up in support of the formula. This front office appears to be narrowing it’s search to the most explosive offensive linemen in each draft and picking from a select pool of players.
Here’s a quick review of the evidence we’ve found in the last week:
— Since 2012 they’ve only drafted players that fit the criteria we’ve identified in terms of TEF and the broad jump
— In 2014 Justin Britt was the last TEF qualified lineman in the draft available before Garrett Scott in round six — explaining why Seattle took Britt when they did and then added Scott later
— In 2015 they drafted three of five players that beat the TEF test
— Of this years combine group, the following five players in the 2016 draft are ‘TEF enough’: Jason Spriggs, Connor McGovern, Alex Redmond, Joe Haeg, Joe Dahl
— Brian Bobek (3.39) and Vi Teofilo (3.84) are two non-combine invitees that fit the TEF criteria. Anthony Fabiano scored a 2.98. Bobek probably has sub-33 inch arms given his smaller frame. Teofilo definitely misses out on arm length (30 3/4 inch arms).
I suspect the Seahawks use a more sophisticated albeit similar formula. I’m not convinced Laken Tomlinson’s 2.95 would’ve ruled him out considering he jumped a 9-0 in the broad and had the size/length they like. By the same token, I think Germain Ifedi’s 2.95 puts him in contention this year.
John Schneider admitted after the 2015 draft they got all the players ‘they had to have’ apart from one. It’s a safe prediction that this was Mitch Morse. His 3.45 TEF score was by far the highest in the O-line class and would’ve been an ideal replacement for Max Unger at center. Seattle’s fumbled approach to the position last season was possibly a direct impact of missing out on Morse — who they maybe expected to last until the late second round.
That said, the purpose of TEF is not to identify the most explosive/athletic offensive linemen and assume the Seahawks will draft them. It’s more about eliminating those who don’t meet the criteria and focusing on those who do.
For example, Jason Spriggs is clearly the best TEF lineman in the 2016 draft with a 3.54. That said, they might be more inclined to target Connor McGovern (3.29), Joe Haeg (3.06) or Joe Dahl (3.05) with a later pick. Likewise they might think Ifedi’s 2.95 is freaky enough for a 6-6, 324lbs lineman with 36 inch arms.
We’ll find out in less than three weeks whether we are truly onto something with TEF. If their draft habits continue as they have since 2012 — it probably won’t be a coincidence.
It could also prove that actually it’s not ‘Tom Cable picking his guys’ in Seattle. It’s the Seahawks working to a coordinated plan to find explosive offensive linemen to combat the growing disparity between college O-lines and D-lines.
Is center an outlier?
I’ve been asked a few times if the center position is relevant for TEF considering the decent number of ‘mediocre’ athletes playing the position effectively in the NFL.
I think if anything, TEF might be even more important at center in the modern NFL.
Kristjan Sokoli scored a 3.75 before the 2015 draft. That legitimately makes him a generational athlete entering the league. The Seahawks not only converted him from defense to offense — they strictly placed him at center.
When asked about Sokoli in his final press conference of the 2015 season, Pete Carroll stated it was their intention to keep him at center and give him more time to learn the position. He called Sokoli an “exceptional athlete”, adding if he can make it work they’ll have “one of the really good athletes at center”.
It’s pretty obvious why they are interested in this kind of move. Aaron Donald scores a 3.63 in TEF. Geno Atkins is a 3.65. Sheldon Rankins is a 3.52. Ndamukong Suh is a 3.28.
This is the type of player you’re facing in the NFL these days.
Seattle’s plan to try and create a 3.75 counter punch is, quite frankly, brave and brilliant. If it comes off they will be visionaries (again). While some in the league hope tough, hard-nosed and overmatched players can handle the Donald’s, Atkins’, Suh’s and Rankins’ — the Seahawks have what appears to be a much better plan.
Fight fire with fire.
Mitch Morse as a 3.45 TEF star would’ve been ideal and it goes to show that not only the Seahawks are conscious of the changing face of the NFL. The Chiefs knew what they were doing.
Connor McGovern (3.29) can play guard or center and, if drafted, could compete at both positions in camp.
The argument for going O-line at #26 over defense
When you put the entire 2016 class of defensive linemen through TEF, there are 27 players who pass the test compared to six offensive linemen.
While there are plenty of reasons to argue for Jonathan Bullard in round one — and it’d be a strong case — he is comparatively explosive to Vernon Butler, Hassan Ridgeway, Matt Ioannidis, Willie Henry and Anthony Zettel. Other prospects like Joel Heath, Charles Tapper, Ronald Blair III, Javon Hargrave and Yannick Ngakoue actually tested significantly better.
The pool of explosive defensive linemen to pick from is substantially greater than the O-liners. In turn, if you don’t take an offensive lineman at #26 — you run the risk of missing out because there’s no guarantee McGovern, Dahl and Haeg are going to last deep into rounds two and three.
Hatching a plan
In 2014 the Seahawks likely didn’t take Joel Bitonio because his explosive grade (3.03) was similar to Justin Britt’s (3.00). Taking Bitonio at #32 would’ve prevented them getting the receiver they wanted (Paul Richardson, who clearly fits their profile at wide out). Whether you agree with the plan or not — the Seahawks made sure they drafted two players they felt really comfortable with instead of one.
In 2016 — they likewise will concoct a plan to get two players they really like in rounds 1-2 instead of one. So while the players they actually select might confuse and befuddle fans and the media — we know better than to react like that.
The ideal pick?
It’s arguably Sheldon Rankins. He is, without doubt, the most explosive defensive player in the class with an incredible 3.52 TEF score at 300lbs. He has the physical profile to be as good as any defensive tackle in the NFL. He’s also very capable of playing D-end and wouldn’t need to come off the field at any point.
Unfortunately he’s highly unlikely to last until pick #26 and should be a top-15 pick. Assuming he’s gone, O-line at #26 looks the most likely option.
While I agree that TEF looks to be the plan, there is an outlier.
Yes, it’s only one guy, but they have selected an O-lineman that didn’t even broad jump 8 feet.
Now, obviously I don’t think they’d take a guy like this early, but in rounds 6 or 7, absolutely.
BTW, they’ve selected an O-lineman in the 6th or 7th 4 years in a row now.
Absolutely — could see an outlier type ‘flier’ pick in rounds 6-7. Basically a priority UDFA they just drafted instead.
Yup.
The O-lineman they drafted that didn’t hit 8 feet in the broad jump?
7th rounder Michael Bowie.
The worst part is he looked halfway competent his lone year here. He could have locked down RT if he’d wanted to.
Yeah, I think he was a concern the whole time he was playing, there was something that didn’t make the coaching or FO warm and fuzzy but they had to roll with him because of injuries. I was definitely surprised how quick he was cut in 2014. I think a lot of people thought he would of just taken over for the big Russian and it would of been another brilliant late round pick. Did anyone hear the specifics about that? Was it attitude? Weight? Injury? Or combo? I thought I heard that he was over weight.
I think it was weight/attitude/desire he was cut from Browns n never played again
Not true. Bowie is still with Cleveland.
He was a better fit for LG, as his feet were too slow to handle speed rushers at RT. But Cable never even gave him a shot at LG. Still pissed at him for that…
But Bowie had attitude issues in college, and it sounds like he was just as bad with Seattle and they quickly tired of it.
Bowie actually did start at LG in the 2013 Divisional playoff game against the Saints and looked good there. Still think that’s where he would have ended up if he hadn’t packed on the pounds in the following offseason.
Yes, and Carrol benched him the next week in the playoffs because he wanted someone with the mental reps/experience. Thats my point; in his one start at LG and his one start at RG, he kicked major ass, yet was never given a legit opportunity in camp/preseason the next year to compete for LG or RG. He was put at RT, where to me at least it was obvious he was only adequate at best, and then he got injured.
I still fume at the faint praise Cable damned him with after his start at RG vs AZ. He flat out HANDLED that great D, and did better than Sweezy ever did. And all Cable would say was “Well, he didnt do anything amazing”. Amazing for Sweezy would be actually knowing who to block on every play for an entire game…or how to keep your head on a swivel when combo blocking with the RT, so you dont leave a big old hole for a delayed blitz by the LB up the middle…
Sweezy made some fantastic second-level run blocks, but he was never even average in pass pro, and still so inconsistent in run blocking he’d totally whiff on his blocks…
Cable really seemed to have it in for Bowie. He must really have had a bad attitude…
Rob I agree completely about Rankins.I am not sure how he could fall to 26 but if he did he would be the ideal pick this draft and based on the comments from Pauline at the Senior bowl the Hawks think highly of him as well. Probably even more after his combine performance. Is there any chance you think they would try to move up to get him?
I doubt it, they’d have to move above #12 I think. Too much.
I’m thinking this guy doesn’t make it past Oakland at #14… that is his floor… G-men at #10 are also a strong likelihood… their DL has been terrible that last few years. He would be a starter for NYG and situational guy year #1 with the Raiders.
Great write up. Thank you. I agree that we are not going to get Rankins. What do you think about trading down into the mid 2nd round and get a fourth to get two quality selections which might miss on if we sit tight? That way we do not over draft with our first pick and still not get too “cute” so we lose our next guy. It seems like the Seahawks way to me. McGovern may be a target, but may not be there at our second round pick. So if we can get him with a higher second pick and then go with the next best player, we can get our guy and still have access to maybe another great defensive line guy. I think this is far more likely to happen. We clearly over drafted Britt which was because the Seahawks did not have a third round pick to get him then. We should be able to draft a good depth pick in the fourth as well.
Great write up by the way and I would be shocked now if two of the 7 guys you have mentioned were not the 2 OL picks this draft. I just hope all the other front offices are following similar guidelines now because that is a small pool of players to pick from and they will go much higher than expected if that is the case. It certainly explains Morse going far earlier than expected last year.
Couldn’t agree more. I like the though you write about why we should go OL instead of DL in R1. It makes complete and total sense. If the FO wants a OT the shelf drops after that small group of guys (Ifedi, Coleman, Clark, Spriggs, etc) are gone, which I imagine happens high in R2.
The bummer to me is that my favorite OL player, the guy I need us to get is McGovern. But going OL, OL seems somewhat unlikely. It seems more likely they go OL, DL. It would be a grandslam draft to me if we came away with a R1 OT, McGovern and Dahl. I think our OL would be poised to become top 15 in the NFL going forward (not ’16 but maybe ’17 or beyond).
I gotta say I am really high on Sokoli. I hope as a project he works out, but Center? I hope the FO changes their mind. I’d really like to see us draft an O-linemen to play Center (McGovern) and a OT (Ifedi?) which kicks Webb inside to LG to compete with Britt, Sokoli, Sowell, etc. Then in 2017 Sokoli can take over at LG and we can have our OL set:
LT: Gilliam – LG: Sokoli – C: McGovern – RG: Glowinski – RT: Ifedi
That is perfection to me. That is the OL you want infront of Russ for the next 4+ years while he is in the prime of his career (28-32 y/o).
Ifedi just seems like he’s gonna be the Seahawks 1st selection this year.
Personally, I’m not sure who I like more, McGovern or Dahl. Very similar and pretty high on both of them. Kind of leaning toward Dahl.
If Ifedi is there, I really think so, as well. McGovern and Dahl are almost pick’m to me. If by chance they pass on OL at 26, I think you almost have to walk out of R2 with either McGovern or Dahl.
Why choose, grab them both!
I personally like McGovern better, though not by much because Dahl seems like he has that warrior mentality we all love.
As a guy who lives near Fargo N.D. and is a Bison fan, I have to wonder what it is about Haeg that no one seems to like him much?
Is it just the “small school” label? I could understand that I suppose, though five straight championships! I mean five straight…I don’t care what level you are playing at, five straight is simply amazing, and Haeg was a big part of that run.
I’ve seen enough of Haeg to tell you that, his measurable’s, his SPARQ, and TEF scores, they all back up what the eye tells you about him. He’s a freakin monster.
I’d take Haeg and laugh all the way to the bank with him.
I like Haeg fine beyond R1.
Yes, what ND St has done is crazy. Your right, 5 straight at any level is nothing to scoff at.
I like Haeg as well. He’s been on our radar awhile and someone we’ve had discussion about since the fall.
But, I was just responding to the comment about coming away with McGovern and Dahl.
I know his QB likes him. Couldn’t say enough about him on their Pro Day.
P.C. and Tom Cable have made it clear he is going to be a center….so they have an explosive athlete at center …to combat the likes of Arron Donald
Kind of seems like they are trying to do the same thing with the OL as they do with DBs. Draft a physical profile and then hand them over the coaching staff to mould / train them to our system. The only difference being in some cases because of lack of depth these guys are being forced to start year #1 where as at DB they usually get a red shirt year. It will be interesting to see the improvement in Poole and Sokoli this year if that is the case.
Great point. They view the positions the same way. Technique needs to be “re-taught” regardless of how great a prospect the kid is.
Rob, if you had to pick just one, do you think Seattle will go for more of a Michael Bennett kind of D-lineman, or a SAM/EDGE early on?
I think ideally they want someone who can play DE in base and provide stoutness and then kick inside as a pass rusher on third down. So that’s more akin to Michael Bennett — but I think it’d be a bigger player than Bennett (more 285-295lbs). More of a versatile DT than Bennett who is more of an edge rusher/DE who is capable of moving inside.
If that player isn’t available, however, I still think they’ll be open to drafting an impact player at SAM/DE.
What was Wlter Jones TEF? Steve Hutchinson?
Hutchinson — 3.23
Walter Jones — don’t have the stats to put it through the system. Safe to say he probably scored very, very well.
Walter Jones ran in the 4.6s. He was quite literally the Aaron Donald of OL.
In all honesty. He was much better than Donald coming out of college. Pro-typical size and elite speed. The stat that will always blow people away, he gave up around 20 sacks in 12 years of playing NFL football. His worse game, was his final year, when he was playing on a bum knee…. gave up 2 sacks. I think he never gave up 2 or more sacks more than 1x in his NFL career. Donald is a very good player, Walter Jones was HoFer from the get go..
*I meant physically/athletically compared to others at his position. Just leaps and bounds above everyone. Agree on everything else.
Most of his bad games were when he was less than 100%. He had a bad game against Bruce smith when he was the the redskins.
Bruce Smith made many players have bad games along the way. Walter was maybe 65% and Smith 100%.. and only gave up 2 sacks.
Which is why I prefaced it with his bad games coming when he was banged up. Way to reiterate my point. Also, that was the tail end of Bruce’s career so Walt really had to be hurting.
“Big Walt” is arguably the best LT to ever play, certainly of the modern era. One of the greatest Seahawks. Right up there w/ Largent, ‘Tez, Easley, & the Beast.
Jones never played for the Redskins. RT Locklear did though.
Ok, misunderstood you post. Never mind…
After 2 years at some community college as a TE/Tackle who weighed 265, he transferred up to Forida state, but had to red shirt the 1st year. After his Junior year, he entered the Draft. I like that 265 pound TE part!
IIRC he did give up two in 2005 against the Giants. It was the only Seahawks game I have been able to attend.
Was Poole a complete bust, or was he injured last year?
Nobody’s a bust after one year as a fourth round pick.
Don’t think he was injured at all, just wasn’t picking it up inside, and they most likely valued Sokoli’s TEF upside more than risk losing him if they cut him, and Glowinski obviously looked more ready to put in and play if they needed him to. Right now they have Poole listed as a tackle, possibly to get a shot at competing with Webb at RT, depending on how they go about the draft.
Personally, I think it’s kind of a big question how they view Poole. Obviously, they liked him enough to make him the first OL taken, they probably weren’t happy with how he looked in training camp, but they saw enough in him to keep him on the practice squad. My guess is they will draft a tackle to compete, but may not be until later in the draft. 3 of the 5 guys Rob listed as TEF enough this year project inside, and the outliner in Ifedi also probably projects best inside.
>Poole (San Diego State) was a fourth-round pick of the Seahawks in the 2015 NFL Draft. Poole was cut by the Seahawks at the end of the preseason and later added to the practice squad, where he spent the 2015 season. Poole finished the season on injured reserve.
– Source: http://sea.247sports.com/Bolt/Seattle-Seahawks-sign-OT-Terry-Poole-to-reservefuture-deal-42968439
During some press conference or interview, I think it was one at the combine, either PC or JS said Poole had gotten hurt and so they weren’t able to see much from him to know where he is at developmentally.
Yes, what you wrote 100%. I do not think any of us knew that Poole had been injured last year. But, I heard the same interview you are referencing. Like you, I am not 100% certain which one it was, but I seem to think it was Schneider. He did say that Poole had gotten hurt and wasn’t able to play.
He is a complete unknown right now.
He must have gotten hurt in the draft, then, because when he was on the field he looked pretty bad.
Of the lineman drafted that year by the Hawks, Poole looked the most unexceptional to me. I did not see explosion on the tape I saw. Kind of a mauling, slow-footed, somewhat uncoordinated- looking dude. He was picked slightly before Glowinski, but to me Glowinski’s tape was obviously better.
Schneider said he was injured early on.
Sounded like they still had hope for him.
Poole may have passed the TEF test, but he sure doesn’t pass the eyeball test, in that he does not “look” athletic at all, for what that’s worth. He looks top-heavy and spindly-legged. But if he can move as indicated, there is hope yet… (forgive me if I don’t hold my breath, however)
Sokoli, on the other hand, is an absurdly SPARQ/TEF prospect. His first step gets there a full 12″ before any other OL, or for his DL opponent, for that matter, based solely on a few practice views. He does not carry the kind of weight that slows you down, but his legs and calves are huge, made of titanium or something, and they must be made of coiled springs.
Next to DBs, Sokoli’s calves look like thighs! It’s almost freaky how big they are.
FWIW Poole did move very well at the combine and looked athletic there.
The problem with Poole has been about experience and time playing. Do not forget he was a JUCO transfer to San Diego so there was definitely going to be at least a year on the bench. Does he breakout this year? I guess we will find out.
You are just killing it Rob and I couldn’t agree more which leads me to believe this being the plan:
I can see Rankins being the one guy in Round 1 where they say, “if Rankins gets to the late teens, we are willing to mortgage picks to get him as we view him as a foundational/core player on the defense.”
Otherwise, I think the plan is to trade back in the 30s and take Connor McGovern. It’s not necessarily about trying to get a ton of compensation, but rather simply saying we feel comfortable getting our guy in this range (probably over drafting him to a certain extent) and recouping a 4th rounder in the process. This added pick allows them ammunition to move up in Round 2 (after McGovern) in case somebody falls further than expected (let’s say a Shon Coleman or Le’Raven Clark or possibly Ifedi or a DT/DE).
While I know Spriggs qualifies via TEF, my gut tells me that he is not a guy that’s high on the Seahawks wish list. The reason I say this is that he really is a LT only type of guy. Which is funny because that implies he has great value. That said, I think they truly believe that Gilliam can man the LT spot which to me means that RT, LG, C are far more important. IF this is correct, to me that means Spriggs is not the guy they want, especially at the price tag. This, again, is why I have strong conviction with the idea of them having McGovern as the new Mitch Morse, but this time they won’t get burned because they will overdraft him, just not at #26 (and not waiting until the 50s to get him).
I’m curious as to your thoughts about this idea. Keep it up Rob!
I like McGovern, but I don’t think they need to take him at #30. That to me is a bit rich. I’m personally thinking he’ll be there at #56 for Seattle and projecting they’d have interest because of his background, attitude and explosive athleticism. Yet I’ve seen plenty others grade him rounds 3-4. I certainly don’t think he’s a first rounder and would expect him to be available in round two.
Understandable. And I probably didn’t frame this whole thing very well; but what I was implying was them viewing him in the Mitch Morse mold and understanding that they go too cute with a guy they really wanted and failed to obtain him. Hence providing some rationale as to why they’d “overdraft” a guy like McGovern.
Also, I should have been more clear, but I really meant trading back into Round 2 (late 30s, early 40s). In no way do I think McGovern is worthy of a 1st rounder. I was really just trying to highlight the idea of “not getting cute” with a guy they really wanted to get, at a position of need (who also fits the profile – TEF).
Thanks for the response Rob. One last question; anybody in your mind who could be an “out of left field” pick for Seattle. Not necessarily at an obvious position (i.e. not an OL or DL)? Perhaps someone you have seen that screams Seahawk that maybe PC/JS simply can’t pass up (if available).
I think some of the left field guys we’ve covered so they’re not so left field any more 🙂
I think they’ll love Tyler Ervin for his swiss army knife potential. Devon Cajuste for his blocking/catch efficiency/athleticism. I think they’ll like Kyler Fackrell.
Rob,
I asked you about Cajuste some time ago. You said you hadn’t watched any tape of him at that time. I take it you have since then. He seems like a unique player that the Hawks would have interest in.
I’m not sure he’s that unique — but he does what they want. Blocks, catches his targets, he’s athletic, gritty.
Bullard in rd 1 then maybe a modest trade up in the 2nd to guarantee getting McGovern so we don’t get Morsed
The thing I worry about is that trade down. It seems to me to fall under that “getting cute” area in regards to our need for a RT or at least OT talent and competition. Going into the 2016 season with Webb at RT is scary. Not Britt at RT scary but I hear it is close. Is the 4th rounder that we get (and the player we get with it) worth either 1) potentially missing out on all the good OT’s (Ifedi, Coleman, Spriggs, etc)? 2) Worth missing out on a guy like say Ifedi at 26 and instead having to go with Clark in the 30’s?
Don’t get me wrong, if JS has done the homework and is confident that the guys he wants are available to us after that trade then I will be pumped. If we traded back and got a quality OT in R2, then a D-linemen in R2, then McGovern in R3, then Tyler Ervin in R3, then we had two R4 picks? So we could grab Dahl and a WR like Cajuste or something?
That would be perfection. We’d come away from the draft with a OT, D-linemen, McGovern, Ervin, Dahl, WR, etc. That is basically my dream draft.
But how likely is it that a good OT is there in the 30’s? Odds that Ifedi is gone seems high. Seems tricky, and potentially sliding into that “getting cute” area.
Part of the trade down appeal for JS is to keep from having that fifth year option; its high enough, you dont necessarily want that available to drive up the price of a good but not great player (like Irvin, or the guys likely to be available at 26 this year) when you try to extend them. A good example is Bullard; A guy who will likely be solid, but not likely a Pro Bowler/Star player. You’d much rather get him at 35 than 26, and not have the fifth year option to foul things up and drive his price up down the road.
Not only that, the slotted pay for a player at 26 is a good big higher than for a high second round pick, and JS has mentioned this as a big factor in previous trade-down years.
MJ, I’m understand exactly what you are saying and agree completely. Get “their guy” at a reasonable spot, don’t get too cute (“Morsed” was well worded), and pick up some draft capital.
Now we just need a partner.
As for not getting cute, I agree. Sometimes they hose themselves, as when they were reportedly after Jordan Matthews but just missed him. Or being unable to trade up for their OL guy last year.
They decided not to risk getting cute with Irvin too (though maybe they should have risked it); they had offers to trade down in the first again, but decided they didnt want to risk losing Irvin so they just took him after their first little trade down.
Rob: McGovern might still be on the board at 56. You said yourself that more and more teams are looking at explosive lineman.
I need to proof read my postings McGovern might be on the board and he might not be on the board at 56. More and more teams are looking at explosive lineman. So there no guarantee McGovern will still be on the board when the Hawks pick in the 2nd round.
a player with one of the worst tef scores from last year – rob havenstein had an excellent rookie season, not allowing a sack in 13 games. who would you rather have – him or britt.
not knocking your research and think you’re probably right rob, just wish you were wrong about this as I think it’s a ridiculously restrictive way to go about the draft and hasn’t worked for the seahawks.
also wasn’t there talk that they were interested in daryl Williams last year who has a score well below 3.
But here’s the thing — not every explosive athlete will be great. Not every mediocre athlete will be awful.
But if you’re facing increasingly better athletes on defense, the better athletes are going to become a necessity on the OL. There will still be a few Rob Havenstein’s probably — but they won’t be the majority.
In a way it’s like using Lane Johnson to argue for elite athletes. He, like Havenstein, is one example. In five years time I think the top OL’s in the league will be rich in athleticism.
The Seahawks weren’t linked directly to Daryl Williams. What happened was Ian Rapoport reported on the NFL Network they were trying to move up in round four. It never happened and Williams left the board early in that round. It was assumed at the time they were trying to move up for Williams. We’ll never know if that report was accurate or ultimately if it was Williams or someone else they were looking at.
Not the point. This has absolutely nothing to do with identifying who the best player will be. It has everything to do with trying to identify who they might be looking at.
Moreover, the draft is a crapshoot. No team gets every pick right. They are trying to project how these guys will do at the next level. The explosion measurements and such are one tool for doing that. I presume they think this increases their chance of hitting on guys, but they are still going to miss at times.
I think what ulsterman is getting at is that the JSPC/Cable might be too reliant on their litmus testing. Rob’s analysis certainly suggests that they focus heavily on it, for better or worse.
I do think they have had the tendency to pass up good players and take athletes. I would prefer a more reasonable balance. For instance, if a prospect has an impressive and reasonably lengthy college history, and impressive performances in Shrine and Senior Bowl, that measurements should not push all of that aside.
I don’t think the FO uses this criteria to draft, more to identify which players fit within a certain criteria that they COULD target. Then it’s on to film study, doing background/character checks and so on. No way are the Hawks going to draft a SPARQ/TEF demon if he’s got character or background issues they can’t get past.
Absolutely Steele, I know Rob is identifying what the Seahawks tend to do, I’m just saying I wish they wouldn’t and don’ know why everyone seems to think it’s such a great idea to write off players likely to have good NFL careers because they are slightly less athletic than others who look to be lesser players. Why can’t the athletic freaks dominate in college where they are playing against far inferior athletes than they will be in the NFL?
I get the need for athleticism, but just think there are so many other things that have to be taken into consideration as well and the combine figures should be used as a guide, not a reason to completely rule someone out.
Last year’s draft looks like a good one, but the previous two were pretty bad and IMO it’s because they have become too focused on athletic meaurements. Poole may have looked explosive at the combine, but I agree with James, he didn’t in pads. Glowinski on the other hand had really good tape to go with his athleticism. Glowinski now looks like a certain starter at right guard while Poole might not even make the roster.
Last year’s draft was better than good.
Came away with 5-6 starters, but at least 4. Clark (will get starter reps), Lockett, Rawls, Glowinski, possibly Cottom as a blocking TE or H-back, and possibly Soko.
Anyways, tape does come first. But measurables and athleticism fill in the blanks.
I would agree that measureables are fine as a check point, but if the player hasn’t performed in college, why pick them based on a high SPARQ? Take Alabamas championship team, how many of those players have high SPARQ? Shouldn’t the seahawks be drafting the best player, not best SPARQ score? IF they can’t play the position – it doesn’t matter how high they measure. This whole idea reminds me of the Raiders attempts to draft sprinters to be wide receivers. Yes they could sprint down the field – but they couldn’t catch the ball while running at Mach 1.
Other point is defensive conversions to center. Why? There are 3-4 good centers in this draft. A couple of them will be around for mid-round selection. They have proven themselves, Kelly was even on a championship team. But instead they want to dink around with converting a defensive player to the MOST difficult position on the line. Yes I said it. Mentally harder then tackle. The Seahawks had a heck of a time using that strategy with Nowak last year. Yet the chatter continues. Can’t they learn from their previous mistakes? Just draft a center!
AlaskaHawk – I have said before, I think the front office and, specifically, Cable, feel that they can take a good athlete and train him to be a good O lineman. I don’t think they feel they can take a good college O lineman and train him to have the kind of athleticism that he will need to be a good NFL O lineman.
They seem to choose their Offensive Line talent differently than other position groups. And they take chances on guys with ridiculous measurables but poor or little performance, and they take take chances on lesser athletes with big heart and desire as well; in the late rounds and especially UDFA. Guys like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, Gwacham, K Smith and Kasen Williams, their TE and DT prospects on the PS etc…
Fellas, I think Bullard would be a good pick. However, I just feel that its a lil over kill considering we drafted Frank Clark last season. I understand they play two different positions but we addressed the D line early last season. Not to mention he plays the same position as Bennett. Do we use our 26 on a situational pass rusher? Call me loco but If Ifedi is gone, I don’t think they draft Spriggs at 26. I believe they go BPA. Either that or pacckage some picks together and go get the guy you really want.
Bullard offers inside rush, though, and not a lot on the roster behind Bennett that presently offers that. Clark is now likely fully an edge rusher with the weight drop. Seattle probably covets another inside rusher.
Rob, Do you know much about Vi Teofilo? That’s a very impressive TEF. I know you say it’s potentially skewed by the bench press but that’s also a monster Broad jump. He’s aced two out of the three metrics. For info did Sokoli attend the combine? Are there any parallels?
Also, many thanks for all your efforts on the blog and podcasts. Would recommend the podcast especially to all readers. You often provide a lot of extra detail in them about questions that get raised here on a regular basis. Cheers
He’s considered nasty, which is good… but he’s a T-Rex. He’s got less than 31″ arms.
Bobek may be even worse. I haven’t found his arm length yet, but I believe I saw a video of him doing a vertical jump. His arms were… well, let’s just say he’d make a T-Rex feel long limbed.
Sokoli did not attend the combine, so he’s similar to Teofilo in that regard.
Teofilo is 325lbs, a lot bigger than Sokoli. His vertical was only 29.5 inches probably due to the extra size.
Just checked and Teofilo is a T-rex with sub 31 inch arms. That’s an issue.
9″ Broad Jump (twice), sounds like the old 10″ pianist joke. Didn’t want to bring up, but, twice.
Oh and Ha Ha! Thanks for the comic relief. Great work as always, Rob.
Hello, Rob. Long time reader, first time commentor. I enjoy your writing. I’m an engineer so I guess I have a natural propensity towards the nerdy stuff. It would be interesting to use your formula to go back 10 years and see if it would be a good predictor of successful lineman.
Hey Erik. I know a lot of the top current offensive lineman score well. Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, Joe Staley, Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, Jason Peters, Ryan Clady, Taylor Lewan, Lane Johnson.
Worth noting though that 10 years ago the disparity between O-lines and D-line wasn’t as great as it is now and the need to draft explosive athletes on the O-line wasn’t what it is now. Unfortunately it won’t give us the type of result that would tell us a great deal about the 2016 draft or the future.
You’ve suggested there is a growing disparity, but I don’t think that’s true. It may be that the Seahawks are looking for a new way to combat the disparity that has always been there, but I haven’t seen any evidence that any disparity is a new(er) issue.
As to the poster above who claimed this was just about figuring out who the Seahawks will probably be interested in, I think that unnecessarily and unhelpfully curtails the discussion. Might as well say don’t watch the games because SportsCenter will tell you who won or lost later. Agree this may tell us how the Seahawks think, but it’s also an interesting debate to figure out if it makes sense. I mean, let’s say the team decides it’s only interested in WRs who are 6-4 and up. Thinks with the contact rules in place it makes sense to just throw jump balls all day. I think it’s fair game (and more interesting, honestly) to look at the NFL landscape and decide if that’s valid or not.
As to this TEF/explosion thing, so far the results are underwhelming. I still think it has limited application even if successful.
Just looking at the top teams in the league last year, and seeing their pathetic offensive lines, and realizing that it NEVER used to be the case that so many teams with wretched o-lines could even make the playoffs, much less win, and even win the Super Bowl, ought to tell you there’s a growing disparity.
At no time in modern NFL history have so many good, playoff teams had such horrible o-lines.
In all my years of watching, (46 years old) I’ve NEVER seen such pathetic O-line play, not even close.
Much of it is due to colleges playing the spread offenses. More of it is due to high school kids simply preferring to play defense than o-line, and high school (and college) coaches putting their better athletes on the D-Line rather than the O-line.
Right now, there’s exactly ONE NFL o-line that would even be characterized as “good” by the standards of 10-20 years ago, and that’s the Cowboys. And while that current Cowboys line is easily the NFL’s best right now, it wouldn’t even make a dent into the top 10 lines of 15-20 years ago.
“You’ve suggested there is a growing disparity, but I don’t think that’s true.”
It’s absolutely true. The evidence was laid out in this draft class. Six O-liners with a TEF above 3.00 and 27 D-liners. That’s indisputable evidence. You have absolutely zero basis to say the results are underwhelming.
But hey, don’t take my word for it. Argue against John Schneider if you want. He says in every interview there’s a growing and massive disparity between college O-liners and D-liners.
I’m still not sold at all. All the top players you pointed to above were not only athletic but had extremely good tape coming out of college. None of us here would argue with drafting an OL with great tape because SEA has done that.
And none of them are interior players. I don’t think a player is more certain to be able to block Aaron Donald because he’s more athletic. And just pointing to the disparity between OL/DL does not any proof.
Sweezy was super athletic and the Rams destroyed him. Havenstein did very well blocking Seattle’s athletic front. There’s a lot more to OL play than moving, especially in pass pro.
And you keep pointing to last year’s draft in terms of going with athletes? How effective were the players Seattle drated n the OL? Glow looks great but hes the kiind of prsopect I like. good athlete and good tape. the other two could very well be non factors.
im cool wih getting athletes but only limiting yourself to the top athletes is a risky and almost stupid approach.. you need a balance. look at dallas. they are loaded with athletes but spend a 1 on travis fredereick, who has done an amazing job handling athletic DTs. his TEF score would’ve sucked too. I imagine some of the guys in the interior of CIN OL would score the same as Frederick or Ryan Kelly, who most film people believe is the cleanest OL on tape.
Guys like Davis and Jared — the two people on Twitter i trust the most and the two who are the most tied into how Seattle’s front office operates — both have told me they can’t stand Jason Spriggs
Davis, specifically, told me that his ideal pick at 26 beyond Rankins is Ryan Kelly.
I think Seattle should continue to value their athletcism and use measurables but they need to open their minds. Rob, you too, need to do the same.
With respect Frank, you have emphatically missed the point here.
TEF isn’t there to argue who is a great offensive linemen. It’s there to highlight who fits and who doesn’t compared to the admitted ideal physical profile stated by Tom Cable. Considering they haven’t drafted any player below our TEF grade of 3.00 since 2012, I would suggest it’s more than a coincidence.
Any of the regulars on here will tell you that I’ve voiced concerns about Spriggs. If you can find me one quote where I’ve said, “Spriggs is a great lineman” I’ll give you $100. I’ve merely emphasized he’s the most explosive offensive lineman physically in this class. And that’s indisputable based on his testing. Likewise I’ve also voiced concerns about Joe Haeg, another player that works into TEF. A good TEF grade doesn’t mean I think the player will be great. It just makes them more likely to appeal to the Seahawks.
For example, here’s a piece I wrote about Nick Martin before the combine: https://seahawksdraftblog.com/notre-dame-center-nick-martin-might-be-underrated
Martin did not test well in TEF. Doesn’t mean I think he’s bad. I think he’s good — but unlikely to be a Seahawks draft pick.
Being “more athletic” doesn’t guarantee you’ll block Aaron Donald well. Again, it’s not about proving that. The Seahawks have very evidently targeted explosive linemen since 2012 and I’ve asserted, based on their draft history, that this is to try and combat the increasing physical difference between O-liners and D-liners entering the league. I am projecting that the Seahawks believe being really explosive and strong doesn’t guarantee you beat Aaron Donald, but at least you’re fighting fire with fire. Thus, why they’re trying to make generational athlete Kristjan Sokoli a center even though he played defense in college.
Whatever Davis (who I respect) and the other guy (who is a jackass) believe really is neither here nor there. I am not voicing an opinion on what I think the Seahawks SHOULD do. I’m voicing an opinion on what I think they WILL do. And there’s no recent history of them taking a guy with Ryan Kelly’s profile. Doesn’t mean they won’t do it this year — but I’m not going to bet on that horse because it goes against everything we’ve learnt over the last four years.
I’ll end with this. It’s funny that you are telling the Seahawks they should open their minds. I mean, this front office only led this team to back-to-back Super Bowls, revolutionized the team, set new standards for a generation and won it’s first Championship. I think they’re doing pretty well without any of us fans telling them what they should or shouldn’t be doing.
By the way — when did you change your name to Frank, Jeff Simmons?
“Open your mind” means “agree with me”.
Absolutely.
But I’m not sure what posting under the name Frank means when your real name is Jeff Simmons.
I guess that’s the problem with IP addresses, Frank/Jeff.
Ahahahaha!
Awesome!
This is the same guy who came on here after last year’s draft, and said we needed to do a better job of identyfing who Seattle likes.
As if we didn’t talk about and mock Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett, Glow, Soko, Poole.
He also works in the media for Sportsnet in Toronto. Very surprised he feels the need to use fake names to come on and make this kind of post. Front up and own it.
Hmmm… that’s strange.
Love how you pulled his f***’n card!
I just think you got a great thing going here, you put in work, great community, I’m truly honored to be a part of it, so thankful that you allow me to post so much, and guys like him are toxic and can ruin things.
Thanks man, you’re a valued contributor in this community as I’ve told you before.
Unfortunately some people just want their own views validated, opined and enforced. I’ve tried to explain the point of TEF to Jeff Simmons on here and Twitter. I think I’m fighting a losing battle.
I know. Thank you though. 🙂
I think you might be fighting a losing battle unfortunately. Seems like quite a few people can’t rap their heads around it. I personally think it’s dope and very cool stuff.
People keep bringing up, ‘well how did this guy in the past perform? Or what about this prospect from 15-20 years ago?’
But, IMO thoughts become things. So, if your always looking back, how can you ever move forward, evolve, and accept the way things are done nowadays?
*thinking, not looking.
I know since I found this website my draft evaluations have gotten better. It appears that OL is a priority but that doesn’t mean Rob has ignored the defensive guys in this draft. It because of this site that I’m starting to actually pull late round picks up. My last pick last year was a Thomas Rawls and a lot of that was learned during the year we drafted Turbin and the next Michaels. So Frank/Jeff/Whoever you are, you can’t please everyone but the majority of us 12 fans on this site love it. Show a little respect for the guy who freely started and run this website so we can voice our opinions because that’s why its here. I sure would hate for Rob to close the website down because he feels his time would be better spent with his son instead of defending himself with a Blog. Keep up the good work Rob.
Thanks man 🙂
It was because of this site I got into draft and some of the players I watch today play for other teams. At the start of the season I got a notebook and wrote down the best prospects for OL starting this year. You could get McGovern at 254. You would have to try him out at RT and if that didn’t work he would definitely make a stud G. Conklin was at 21 and pretty much where he’s at now. What can I say, I’m retired and it gives me something to do on the rainy day’s.
That’s not evidence of a “growing” disparity, merely evidence of a disparity. Ten years ago there were just as many DL that out-broadjumped the best OL as there were this year, for example. DL have always been more athletic, for a reason.
The basis to say it’s underwhelming is in the failure to perform of most of the OL we’ve drafted. Finally, if you could point me to Schneider saying that it’d be interesting, or I could look myself, but if he’s said that, then yes, I will argue against Schneider. You can say that OL *play* is worse, but that’s for different reasons, IMO.
where’s your evidence then?
I’ve presented TEF and the views of John Schneider.
You’ve brought a hot take backed up by what exactly?
Ryan Kelly is very close to the 3.0 TEF.
30″ vertical (1 inch away)
8’07” broad (4 inches away)
26 bench (1 more bench away)
If the Nowak experiment last year showed anything, there should be A value-added to the TEF for the experience of playing center. Obviously, the mental responsibilities of playing center are crucial to that position. McGovern may be more “explosive” but he never played center in college. And the current starter, Patrick Lewis, is further away from a 3.0 TEF than Kelly is.
I would go Kelly at #26 to play OC and McGovern to play LG at #56.
Ryan Kelly is a 2.84 in TEF.
He’s not miles away like Taylor Decker and Cody Whitehair but he’s not that close either.
Experience playing center wasn’t necessary for Mitch Morse in 2015. Let’s not allow a Drew Nowak project to impact our judgement there.
Morse is the exception to the rule. The overwhelming number of starting NFL centers played center in college. Here are the TEF numbers for the starting center, Max Unger, on the World Champion Seahawks:
Vertical: 24 1/2 inches
Broad: 7’09”
Bench: 22
Miles away from a 3.0 and yet Unger was a solid, sometimes Pro Bowl starter.
Wow. That is a true outlier….
“Morse is the exception to the rule. The overwhelming number of starting NFL centers played center in college”
Big deal.
Morse might become the new normal.
The Seahawks happily traded Unger a year ago.
Happily and stupidly traded Unger. “Morse might become the new normal.” As meaningless as saying “Nowak might become the new normal.”
Nowak is not anywhere near the athlete Morse is. Plus Morse moved from tackle to center, not defense to center. The two are incomparable. Nowak is far closer to the average center’s people are suddenly clamoring for. Check his athletic profile.
As for trading Unger being stupid — I’m going to say the Seahawks’ front office know a lot more about this whole football thing than me or you, Dan.
But he got injured in Cables system–CONSTANTLY!
Much as I loved Unger, Cable was done with him due to the injuries. He was crafty, but not athletic or strong enough to do what Cable wanted.
And remember, Unger was not drafted by PC or Cable, but by Mora/Timmay! and was drafted to play in a different ZBS, one that uses smaller, shorter guys who can move.
Cable’s system uses bigger LG’s and RT’s, and really only wants a super-athletic guy who can pull at RG….and athletic and strong guys at C. Cable’s ZBS prefers guys that are bigger, stronger, and less athletic (except at RG) than the original ZBS run by our line coach at the time Unger was picked, and PC’s guy before Cable was the same–he liked smaller quicker guys with leverage compared to Cable.
Nowak was a defensive tackle in college. That’s quite a big difference than a guard or tackle making the switch to center.
Rob (and the gang)
What do you guys think about Keenan Reynolds (former Navy QB) being a late round Seahawks picks. He could be an emergency 3rd QB and is incredibly versatile…. as illustrated by his 88 rushing TDs in CFB. He is just a great athlete looking for a home….. he would be fun to watch.
He’s the kind of guy I could see them taking a chance on. Trying him at WR and RB. Maybe late round or UDFA.
Rob does Daniel Lasco RB Cal fit the mold the seahawks like? I wouldnt mind another california running back after the production we got from lynch.
I was a bit underwhelmed with Lasco to be honest.
Have you seen any of his 2014 tape when he was healthy? I’ve read he looked much better then last year when he was hampered with injuries.
Haven’t watched him yet, but heard he’s a dymanic athlete, makes guys miss and is a good pass protector.
I’m intrigued by the potential of him and Sims backup Qb battle, and move on from TJack.
I’m pretty confident the guy is going round 6 or 7, just a bit too much production in college to make it to FA. OF course, every guy like this I think Steelers or Patriots will grab them late… makes me mad.
I like him but I wish he was committed to staying at qb, so instead I lean towards a different an that has a very similar skill set to Wilson.
Dalyn Williams an Dartmouth
Already a deep ball master and elusive. And a lot of scouts compare him to NC state Russell for this stage of his development
Perhaps a good comparison would be Jerick McKinnon. He was a triple option quarterback out of Georgia Southern who became a running back once he went pro. He seems like an adequate backup for AP out in Minnesota.
As a huge Navy fan, one who has watched pretty much everything Reynolds has done, I can tell you all that aside from arguably Roger Staubach, Navy has never ever had a better athlete. He’s exceptionally athletic, and would make a ton of sense for us.
Belichek grew up with his Dad on the Naval Academy’s football staff. Watch for him to grab Keenan Reynolds.
He had better pro day results than BJ Daniels. I could see it.
Hi Rob,
Your TEF formula is a fascinating topic. It’s really cool that you were able to basically reverse engineer their formula for drafting offensive linemen.
I had a quick thought about the Seahawks taking Idefi in round one, then doubling down and drafting Shon Coleman (if he falls) in round two. Idefi at his size would kick inside to LG and Coleman would assumingly play tackle. You’ve talked about how nasty Coleman is in the run game and the challenges he has overcome. Some mocks I’ve seen have Coleman going in the late second or third round range.
If they Seahawks do go OL – OL you think Idefi – Coleman would be a better combo than Idefi – McGovern if available and would the Seahawks be interested?
I would love those two picks. Lock up your LG and RT for the next 6-8 years and give the OL a real boost.
Gilliam, Ifedi, Lewis, Glowinski, Coleman sounds like a pretty solid OL to me.
I wouldn’t expect Coleman to last until #56.
Until I see a work out with numbers and pass on the medical for me Coleman just doesn’t exist.
Honestly if the choice is Ifedi or defense then I really hope we go defense. I am more and more getting excited about seeing my guy Soke hit the field this training camp. At first I thoight it was wishful thinking, but I think there could be a chance that Soke hits at C. That would be amazing. So DL in the first frame, McGovern in the 2nd and a an offensive weapon in the 3rd, with Soke getting a shot at C and I will be a happy Hawks fan
Rob, I appreciate the work that you seemed to put behind developing TEF, but I see many flaws. First off, why do you have to cube the broad jump result? Is there any mathematical rationale behind this? I’ve read the article before, but it still doesn’t make any sense. If it’s a way to help organize the data, then I could see that, but it’s really unnecessary especially if there’s no real reason why it happens.
Next, I think that you’re placing too much emphasis on measurables. The Seahawks love athletic players, but they also have to be good football players (like what you said when you made a post about early round picks being productive and unique players). Of the early round offensive linemen selected by this regime, only 50% of the linemen picked round 3 or higher fit your criteria for TEF. As far as I can tell, Okung and Britt are the only two that fit the “desired range.” Let’s take a look at Moffitt and Carpenter and how they fared.
Moffit had a 30.5 inch vertical, 8.5 ft broad jump, and 23 reps on the bench press
TEF = (30.5/31)+((8.5/9)^3)+(23/27) = 2.68
Carpenter had a 28.5 inch vertical, 8.10 ft broad jump, and 23 reps on the bench press
TEF = (28.5/31)+((8.9/9)^3)+(23/27) = 2.74
*I used 8.9 for Carpenter since 8.1 was denoted as 8 ft 1 inch and it was actually 8 ft 10 inches.
Aside from Okung and Britt, Carpenter and Moffitt are the other two highly selected offensive linemen made by this regime. And yet they weren’t even near the required TEF score of 3. The reason why they were picked so high were because they had excellent college careers. Carpenter was arguably the best run blocker in college football for a Heisman trophy winner and Moffitt was part of an offensive line that was one of the best in college (with many of the guys on the unit selected very early in the subsequent NFL drafts).
Rob, I’m a frequent reader of the site and love the work that you put in. I’m definitely well-informed about draft prospects and it’s a breath of fresh air to deviate from what the national consensus is. I just think that TEF isn’t a big predictor of who the Seahawks will take in the early rounds.
I took the measurements for Carpenter from NFL Draft Scout and NFL.com
“The Seahawks love athletic players, but they also have to be good football players ”
Do they? Not always. They have taken athletes who have not even played their positions in college. That is not only not “good football players”, but zero experience in their roles.
Because they see themselves as a sort of academy for NFL newcomers to start from nothing (and Cable scoffs at college experience), they are willing to take that chance more than other teams.
So it’s not that Rob is emphasizing the measurables too much. It really does appear to be how JSPC/Cable do it.
That may be true for the later rounds of the draft, but the results say they’re more prone to do that later. Early rounds are a whole different story.
Cable described the 31-9-27 profile after Carpenter and Moffitt were no longer on the team. If I was a betting man I might wager that they developed that ideal around the time they took Sweezy.
Winston, TEF is explained in the link I highlighted in this article. It explains why we cube the broad jump to give it more emphasis. There is complete logic behind this.
As for over emphasizing measurables — not when every player they’ve drafted on the OL since 2012 matches the criteria. It’s since 2012 that PC and JS have talked about the disparity on OL and DL in college and the results are consistent since. I would urge you to read the TEF explainer and see why it’s a vital tool in projecting Seattle’s O-line picks.
Another flaw is that you are using inches for the vert but a combo of inches and feet for broad jump. The feet need to be multiplied by 12 then add the inches, then use that in the formula. That should change the numbers a bit.
The reason it is increased by the power of 3 is because of the importance of the broad jump in determining explosive power compared to the bench (more about endurance) or the vert which is more important for going up for the ball instead of going forward or sideways.
Just some thoughts.
Yes I am aware of this issue with the inches and feet and I am planning to tweak this for next year.
Rob, thanks very much for putting your attention on an issue that I and others had raised, in particular whether a center should be judged by the same metrics as the other OLs, or whether he is an ‘outlier.’
I find your argument compelling, to wit that a center who can match Aaron Donald’s explosiveness is better than one who cannot, and in fact may be the only way to keep Donald at bay. I still think this needs more analysis, however, in that for example, put Russell Wilson in a 6-5, 235# body and he could be even better, but this is somewhat candy-and-nuts thinking, is it not?
Russell Wilson, big hands and all, is not the QB he is because of anything that can be measured. Yes, he does have a strong arm that can “make all the throws” but so did Jeff George, and so has about 25 other R1 QB busts in the past couple of decades. Russ is Russ because of what is between his ears, and the makeup of his heart and guts. Center should be considered as a position with the same elements? Yes, if Sokoli can play like Mike Webster, that is ideal, for he can get to point A before Aaron Donald; but if Sokoli does not know where point A is, nor is he likely to ever know in the heat of battle, whereas Ryan Kelly does, then we must re-consider?
This raises a strategic dilemma for Pete and John… Logic says that R1 OL and R2 DL is the way to go, because there is a far greater drop-off from R1 OL to R2 OL, than from R1 DL to R2 DL. But what then of the center position? If we wait until R2 for Connor McGovern under the assumption that he can transition to center in a couple of years, and if he is plucked before we pick, or if he can’t actually make the transition, then what of our window for a championship before Sherm/ET/et al, get past their peak in about three years (for Patrick Lewis is – for sure – not a championship center)?
It seems to me that what Pete and John plan to do at center is the key to this draft. Lewis is stop-gap at best, and should not be asked to take on Aaron Donald and his ilk. Therefore, we must have a center who can at least neutralize those DTs-from-hell from time to time. Is Tom Cable confident enough to make Sokoli the starter from game one, and therefore match TEF for TEF, or do we gamble so much on McGovern, or do we play the percentages and select Ryan Kelly in R1 as our immediate starter, and hope that his savvy can defeat the Geno Atkins of the world, same as Russ Wilson proves that right-over-might is a winner every time? Or would Kelly be as overmatched as a Mini-Cooper against a Ferrari? It is fun for us to guess, but John and Pete get paid to decide for real…
Rob. John Schneider has got to have a photographic memory. Pete Carrol complimented John Schneider on his ability to anticipate who is going to take what person in the draft. John Schneider must know each teams needs as well as anyone. He gambled that Russell Wilson would still be on the board at 75. When you stop and think about it. Was Bobby Wagner worth losing Russell Wilson? I don’t think. I never would have made that gamble. But John Schneider really must have studied/anticipated what teams were going to do. I know he was sweating bullets hoping that Russell Wilson would still be on the board.
Rob: When you mentioned that the Hawks have targeted two players in the first rounds that reminded me of Pete Carroll’s compliment of John Schneider.
I also believe that John Schneider does have two players in mind for the first two rounds. They are probably going to take an offensive lineman in the first round simply because there is so much depth on the defensive line available towards the end of the 2nd round.
Based on what little we know first-hand, mostly info from a Seahawks beat reporter citing an anonymous source, a few cryptic comments from Pete and John, and the tape from the war room when Seattle’s R2 pick was announced (Wagner), this appears to be what happened: Pete and John had decided going into the draft that Russell Wilson was to be their QB pick, but where to select him? John thought he “should” last until R3, but was worried that someone might jump ahead of them and steal him, so John wanted to get Russell in R2 instead of B-Wagz. Pete decided to roll the dice and trust John’s initial read of the draft, and grab Wagner in R2 and hope-and-pray that Russ was still there in R3. The rest is history, but it seems fairly certain that it was Pete who made the high-risk call to wait until R3, and John was arguing for R2 to be on the safe-side.
James what you said makes sense. Pete Carrol is a defense coach. He loves defensive players.
It still goes back to the fact John Schneider has an amazing ability to read the draft.
Yes, but he’s not Clairvoyant. They have lost prospects they coveted by refusing to trade up a bit. One such prospect was Dominique Easley; Seattle absolutely thought they had their guy, but NE took him in front of our nose. Funny thing is NE had been rumored to be after Easley, so I dont know why they thought NE would pass him up….
Yes, that is more or less what I have read in the past. Schneider did his homework and did not think that Russell would be picked before their third round pick. During the draft, JS was getting nervous regarding RW and thought about picking him in the second round. Pete told Schneider to trust all the work he had done, don’t panic and just let the board unfold naturally.
I believe it was the Eagles they were worried about snagging RW specifically. After the draft, the Eagles were confirmed to have pretty much pulled the trigger on RW, if he had been available to them later in the draft.
Every once in a while, on Bleeding Green Nation, they will still lament not drafting RW in the second round or think what could have been had the Seahawks not drafted him.
It was Darrell Bevell that scouted this guy.
PC is on the record saying, ‘he was Bevell’s project.’
So while I get what ya’ll are saying, if it wasn’t for ‘Bevs’ RW might not even be our QB.
I’ve heard JS was the first guy to find him, back when he was a Jr at NC….. then when he went to Wisconsin, picking up the offense and team captain within a few weeks…. most impressive. The Gruden QB camp with him was phenomenal. Gruden was in love with him from day #1. The little exercise where he said … call this play at Wisc, then call it at NC…. RW was able to rattle them off almost without hesitation….. that is not worldly.
Excellent point. Bevell doesnt get enough credit for RW.
Funny thing is I saw a whole other way with the Wagner pick. They traded down and there was another LB that Tampa Bay picked and you could see the look on there faces that guy was the one they wanted. A couple picks latter they grabbed Wagner. They knew they take Wilson and they just had to wait and see if he was there at 75. Lucky for us.
I must again congratulate you, Rob, for all of this research. You may have unlocked the key to the formula. You’ve blown their cover! They may have to come up with something completely different to get you off of their tails.
Rob, your thesis on TEF as a lênse through which to view the Hawks draft day OL predilictions becomes increasingly compelling with each ensuing post! I am not claiming it will grant me the presience to call the individual picks but I sure do feel far less likely to be left gaping and scratching my head as the picks come in. I just gotta say that if the Hawks as a team bring it next season with the same strength and consistency which you have applied to your endeavors over the offseason, 12s are in for a treat.
Also, though were looking at TEF as a model for how the Hawks view OL prospects and not á a strict predictor of future NFL success, it would be interesting to mull over how some TEF profiles for top OL players past and present shaped up, á some posters have begun to do. Thoughts and reflections?
Knowledge and insight definitely adds to my ẹnoyment of the game. As always, thanks Rob for all you do for enhancing my enjoyment!
I think the value is not predicting who they will pick, but selecting who they will NOT pick. This narrows down the focus to a hand full of guys, which makes predicting Seahawks OL picks much more manageable.
Hehe I know Seattle will not be taking that 400lbs. OL, whatever his name is.
Fantastic extension of the theory, Rob?
What was Tapper’s TEF score.
Weird punct. error
3.28 with a weakness in the bench. I think the bench is on the low end of importance for a DE that would potentially move inside for 3rd down.
I think this formula helps tease out the mid to late round OL picks (or possible DL converts) better than taking a swing wildly at the piniata. I think this is perfectly illustrated by the following information…
R4 Terry Poole
R4 Mark Glowinski
R6 Kristjan Sokoli
R7 Corey Robinson
R7 Laurence Gibson
I had always thought they might go Gibson late in the draft, guess he would have been on the radar according to the TEF super formula. Fun with numbers…. now to make this a multi-variant calc equation to go way into the weeds on how they pick guys.
Anyone remember Garret Scott OT lost because of rare heart problem before we even got to see him. Just enough bad luck to throw off training the next OT. He had the best pSPARQ numbers that year. He was not at combine.
Garret Scott LT Marshall, 6’5″ 307lbs. 34 3/4″ arms, 9 7/8″hands, His pro day 5.07-40, 33 1/2″VJ, 4.4 shuttle, 7.09 3-cone.
I like your TEF formula, and agree with your math in how it fits with the Seahawks plan. But I must respectfully disagree with you applying it to the Center position. I just have too much respect for the additional responsibilities of a center to trust Sokoli, or any player, to learn those skills at the NFL level. The Nowak experiment cost us wins last year, I just don’t see the Seahawks doing that again soon.
And I would still be happy with Ryan Kelly or Nick Martin going to the Hawks with their first pick.
That being said, Jake Brendel of UCLA is SparkQy, including a 9+ BJ. Although he’s not quite TEF (if I’m doing the math right). He was a 3 year starter at center, a team captain, and a glue guy. As for TEF, he can always gain a little in the BP at the pro level. The only negatives would be his T-Rex arms, and his age. I’m guessing these factor into him being considered a late round guy. But you can get away with being a T-Rex at center, and the Seahawks don’t seem to mind drafting older players. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the Hawks grab him day 3. Watch some UCLA tape if you get a chance, I think he’s a good option.
It’s fine to believe that, mwstretch — but the Seahawks don’t believe in conventional thinking.
And I think we as fans need to get out of the conventional belief that center is somehow better framed with a middling or average athlete when the guys playing on the other side of the LOS are getting better and more explosive every year.
Exactly, Rob. We all need to remember that whoever the long-term center ends up being will have to face Aaron Donald twice every year, among other outstanding DTs.
I understand your argument Rob, just disagreeing with it. There’s more to center than just athleticism. Reading defenses is a skill that takes time to develop. So is communicating and leading and adjusting the rest of the line. Also, snapping correctly, then popping up quickly to get into the proper defensive stance. To assume Sokoli or McGovern can develop these skills at the NFL level is just that, an assumption.
I also disagree with you that this is the Seahawks strategy regarding the center position. I agree that was the case a year ago. But because of the failure that was Nowak, their strategy, or at least respect for this specific position, has changed.
We’ll find out in a couple of weeks who’s right.
There are similar posts to yours disagreeing with Rob. Rob is not drafting for the Seahawks. Rob is not scouting for the Seahawks. All Rob has done is engineer a formula out of what Tom Cable said they look for in an offensive lineman. The formula explains a lot of what the Seahawks have done in drafting offensive lineman over the years.
All Rob is doing is narrowing down who the Seahawks may draft. That is it. He is not predicting whether the player will be successful. So, your belief that it takes more to be a successful center is an argument with the Seahawks, not Rob.
Actually, as I said above, I disagree that this is the Seahawks plan. So I AM disagreeing with Rob.
Sokoli may currently be listed at center, but as a D line convert, that is hardly set in stone. And under Jon/Pete they haven’t drafted any actual centers. Zero. So guessing the Seahawks strategy at center is just that. A guess.
My disagreement (with Rob) is that after the Nowak experiment, He believes the Seahawks will continue to try converting another non-center to center. I think they draft an actual center. If the center has experience, AND has a 9 foot broad jump, (Jake Brendel) then we are both right.
I am trying to understand your logic here. The Seahawks specifically drafted Sokoli and put him at center. Whether they move him later, they still were fine with putting him at center or else they would have him at guard from the beginning. They were also fine with starting Drew Nowak at center, who also had not played center previously.
Sokoli has practiced at both guard and center. He has yet to take any game time snaps at either position. So his roster listing at this time of year, with 90 man rosters is irrelevant.
The Nowak experiment failed. And it was a large enough failure that directly effected early wins and losses.
And I’m saying that it ( Nowak failing at center) had enough of an impact to change the Hawks philosophy regarding the position.
How do you know? Based on what? You write as if you have inside information. What Carroll/Schneider has said this offseason is that they are keeping Sokoli at center because the want him to concentrate on learning one position.
You seem to have your mind made up on what you want to happen. I am not giving any value judgements on whether what the Seahawks are doing is good or not. But, I am not ignoring what is out there because I want something else to happen.
Actually, I said several times Rob may be right. I’m just making an argument against it.
Let me just highlight this again though, mwstretch.
1. Nowak converted from defense to offense. Nobody is arguing for a defensive convert. We’re projecting a tackle or guard to kick inside if they are a superior athlete like Connor McGovern.
2. Nowak isn’t anywhere near the level of upside that Sokoli is. For example, Sokoli is a 3.75 in TEF. You know Nowak’s score? 2.11. If anything Nowak’s failure is an argument for going for superior athletes. He is, without a doubt, a bad athlete. You can’t lump Nowak in with Sokoli and McGovern and say it’s an apples for apples comparison.
3. The Seahawks have actively tried to convert two center’s now. I think it’s highly unlikely Nowak’s failure is going to provoke some major change in philosophy. They might still be willing to groom Sokoli for that role.
Rob, where you lose me in this argument, is Nowak’s failure last year. It was big enough for me personally (and possibly the Seahawks) to shy away from this strategy at center. And because of that failure last year, I can’t budge from my point of view.
mwstretch — did you read my last comment?
I’ve just outlined that Nowak scored a 2.11 in TEF. That’s lower than any offensive lineman in the 2016 draft class.
Judging explosive athletes scoring 3.29 (McGovern) or Sokoli (3.75) because of Nowak is like judging Russell Wilson based on the fact Colt McCoy sucks.
I tried to go with a simple answer as to why I won’t budge. And that is still the heart of my position.
But fine, to answer your post, athleticism isn’t the issue at center, it’s the skill set. I don’t care how athletic a guy tests, if he can’t read a defense, can’t communicate properly/lead the rest of the line. Can he consistently snap the ball without fumbling/ snapping the ball over Russ’ head?
How quick is Sokoli getting up after he snaps the ball perfectly? Show me the college game tape of McGovern audibling to the rest of his line of an oncoming blitz – oh that’s right, he played tackle last year. He never did that.
It’s not they’re athleticism in question, it’s whether or not these center specific skills should be learned at the pro level.
There are several good centers in this draft. Guys that are natural leaders, guys who have already developed the skill set and technique. Get a guy like that to anchor your line, lead them, unify that line into one group. Then surround that guy with superior athletes following his lead, his pace.
The skill set at center in college is very, very different to the skill set at center in the NFL.
The idea of a ‘plug in and play’ center is misguided. They’re all learning from scratch. One could argue if you can match-up physically while you learn on the run (as Mitch Morse showed in 2015) you have a better chance of making it through the growing pains.
Looking back at my own college experience, I would like to point out that college football players, including OL/centers, have a lot on their plate. Not only do they have academics to keep up, frequent football practices but also some semblance of a social life. They are playing without payment and typically play for coaches that are not even close to NFL level coaches. Once a player gets to the NFL, he’s in the money and if he wants to stick around, he’ll live and breath NFL football 24/7.
In the case of Sokoli, I’d think he’d be able to be coached up adequately in his +/- 2-years as a Seahawk as compared to his 3-4 year college experience with lesser teaching/coaching, lesser practices, lesser quality of teammates and significantly less time commitment. IMO- he should show big improvement this year. IF, he’s ready this year to start, that could help the Seahawks to go for another position of greater need like LOG/ROT.
So I had this funny thought the other night after having some beers with my buddies and chirping about the draft. What if Schnieder and Carroll got hammered and ole Pete bet Schneider he could turn 3 guys into pro bowlers from this draft if he chose only high upside prospects? Haha, I put a list together in the vein of how the Hawks tend to pick for fun. Just havin fun as close as it is to the draft after talking about a lot of the same guys. If Pete Carroll made any 3 of these dudes Probowlers it would rule! Haha, thoughts?
26 Robert Nkemdiche: well I think everyone knows what’s up here as he was a preseason favorite to go in the top 5. What if the Hawks get him to play at an elite level like Suh? That seems to be his comp if he puts everything else together
56 LaRaven Clark: He looks the part, can Cable coach him up?
90 Jaylon Smith: Roll the Dice. The human body is capable of amazing things
97 Moritz Boehringer: Athletic as hell with a ton of upside, which leads us to….
124 Travis Feeney: Athletic as hell with a ton of upside
171 Rashard Robinson: SEC CB, meets the Hawks measurable cut points, high upside with character concerns. Why not?
215 Dan Vitale: I just don’t want New England to land him and Tom Brady turns him into Baby Gronk
225 Brian Bobek: Looks good with TEF, Give the T-Rex a crack at stealing a roster spot
247 LaQuan McGowan: Had a better Sparq Rating then Stanley, Glasgow, and Garnett. This would just be awesome seeing the 6XL wolf grey jersey, see what he can do
That is a ballsy mock, good job! The first three picks all have major boom/bust potential, I think I would be really nervous about the future of the team if this happened. On the other hand, the boom potential is two of the top 5 defensive players in the draft plus a future mainstay at left tackle.
Wow, Josh. That is as extreme a gambler’s mock I’ve seen this year. Top three picks are either nothing or everything.
26: OT GERMAIN IFEDI – No shocker here
56: DE BRONSON KAUFUSI – Good hand speed, disruptive, good solid prospect
90: DT JAVON HARGRAVE – Another small school prospect Seattle seems to love. Don’t see him lasting past round 3.
97: WR STERLING SHEPARD – if he is still on the board with the comp pick in round 3 run to the podium. Good pedigree, seems to play with a chip on his shoulder. Can share return duties with Lockett.
124: DT WILLIE HENRY – Bane replacement
171: OT BRANDON SHELL – Measures comparable to other top tackles. Lacked production. Good project.
215: CB DEIONDRE’ HALL – typical late round CB selection.
225: OLB MONTESE OVERTON – just screams Seahawk to me. Baller.
247: OT CALEB BENENOCH – played all over the line at UCLA. Only a few years of football experience. Under the radar type player. Good be another good sleeper pick if he lasts this far.
According to the TEF formula Seattle would not be interested in Evan Boehm. Boem is the best Downfield blocket (center position ) in this draft. Started 52 games at Missouri. Wrestling champion one of the toughest guys on the draft and basically the Hawks toss him in the dumpster because of his TEF rating. He is also highly intelligent. Basically the guy is tough as nails l
also if we snag McGovern as well we coukd have our entire interior Oline have played together for years!
As much as I hate britts past performances what if Boehm and Mcgovern and Britt together play @ all pro level?
We would look like geniuses.
Would mind Boehm at all.
Boehm drops not just TEF formula but 6’2″ 31 5/8″ arms. Short Legs reduces his Range. Perfect Description of being a Refrigerator with arms sticking out. Has leadership in spades.
I’d be ecstatic if JS could pull off this draft:
Trade down Pick #56 to Panthers for Pick #62 and Pick #129
#26- T Jason Spriggs
#62- DT/DE Javon Hargrave
#90- G/C Connor McGovern
#97- RB Tyler Ervin
#124- G/C Joe Dahl or T Joe Haeg
#129- OLB Travis Feeney
#171- FS Justin Simmons
#215- FB Dan Vitale
#225- WR Ricardo Louis
#247- CB Juston Burris
Love that draft. In the mid-to-late rounds there are certain other guys I’d go for: Boehringer, Odell Becham’s cousin, Justin Zimmer, Bradberry for example.
But overall a very good mock/wish list.
love the draft Wilyeye. If all these guys were on the board it would be perfect. I think Simmons will end up going on day #2 and likley Haeg and Dahl as well.
The idea of the seahawks picking 3 OL in this draft to me is a bit difficult to imagine. They already have numerous developmental OL in their current roster who are really athletic. Although I do love all the OL prospects you mentioned, I see us picking just 2. If we can really get McGovern and Dahl, then I would rather have us take Bullard at #26 and then get Kyler Fackrell at #62. Although this would present 2 OLB, Fackrell is more of a DE/OLB type while Travis Freeney is a pure OLB IMO. Freeney could be the sub of either SAM or WILL. That kind of scenario would be most ideal to me. Yes, I do want to bet Gilliam to be our LT going forward. His ceiling could be higher than Spriggs. McGovern could compete with Britt at LG or also at C. Glowinski starts at RG. While Dahl could compete at RT.
They’ve taken an O-lineman in rounds 6 or 7 for 4 years in a row now. Seems like something people are forgetting.
Not every pick is gonna make this team or pan out anyways my man.
You know as well as I that there’s PS, red-shirt’s, etc. Just because they spend a draft pick on a particular position, doesn’t mean they have to use them right away or be instant contributors. At least in terms of late round picks.
Seattle has $8 mil invested in the O-line. Think about that for a sec. There’s room for some competition.
Rob or Fellas,
Lets say we do pick a DL at 26 or RD2. What is the plan for Frank Clark? lMO he is a big piece to how we pick come draft day. Frank Clark was a high pick for this FO. The initial test of the Frank Clark project passed. The “Character” of Clark. He could be the biggest steal of that draft. Are we sure the Hawks go DL again? Not to mention we still have Bennett, Avril, Rubin, Hill, Marsh. We have developmental guys on the DL already. The Versatility of Bennett makes DL a even lesser need. Bennett and Bullard are very similar. I wouldnt be upset if Pete and John went in a totally different direction. Something like Neal from Florida. Go OL with the next two picks. There will be plenty interior limen left. If we are going to draft Ifedi and turn him into an interior OL anyway might as well just get the biggest bad ass on the draft board at 26 and double up in rounds 2 and 3 on Linemen.
I want to see Neal in a Seahawks uniform!! I envision scary packages with Neal.
Given Clark is dropping weight, and that he’s still not the type to play SAM, I think we can infer a few things:
1) Seattle is still looking for an inside-out DLineman, a guy who can play DE on run downs, and then move inside and offer some pass rush from the DT spot on third downs. Clark was projected to be that guy, but he wasnt as good at rushing from the DT spot as they’d hoped, so they are having him drop weight and likely play DE, period.
2) They MAY go back to using an actual Leo, with Clark playing the role Clemons used to play. For various reasons–I think mostly due to lacking a player capable of doing what Clemons did–Seattle has gone away from that the past few seasons.
3) They may be looking for a true SAM backer. I think the only reason they switched Irvin between DE and SAM is because he was so limited at DE in run support, and they were trying to make the most of him. I dont see them repeating that with any other players–at least, none on the team thus far.
4) They may go after a guy who can play a Hybrid role, like Deone Buchanon has for the Cards, maybe even someone who could conceivably play some SS as well. We know they were very high on Buchanon before AZ drafted him, and that they LOVE versatile players.
I think its entirely possible–likely even–that they take a defensive player with one of their top two picks. Reason being is this Draft Class has some really good talent available in the first two rounds, and at DT throughout the Draft. And Seattle worked hard to plug their holes in the offseason and FA so they would have positional flexibility in the Draft; they like to go BPA, and pick exceptional athletes high, thats been their MO for some time.
From what I can tell all the C’s weve had over the last couple years haven’t been all that TEF Qualified.
Nowaks:
Broad jump- 7’11
Vert- 25″
BR- 17
So I almost wonder if they give a little leniency to the C position when it comes to these numbers.
Patrick Lewis pro day #s
Broad- 8′
Vert- 29″
BR-25
Jeanpierre:
Broad-8’09
Vert- 28.5
BR-30
Unger (I know the current regime didn’t draft him but PC and Tom Cable did move him from G to C when they came here):
Broad-7’09
Vert- 24.5
BR-22
so I wonder if this position is something they look for something else. Sorry if this has been brought up before. been a while since ive been on here so I didn’t read all the articles on this topic.
Addressed this in the article.
They’ve just drafted a defensive player who is a generational athlete and they’re trying to turn him into a center. That tells us much more IMO than the fact they settled on UDFA’s and free agent signings like Jeapierre, Nowak and Lewis to replace Unger on the cheap, who they inherited. Sokoli is the only center they’ve ever drafted.
Oh ok sorry Rob
Was just getting down the formula too haha.
Jared Smith also bolsters the interpretation. He is not Sokoli but he was a seriously good athlete (10’3″ broad; 32″ vert, 28 BP), done in by a knee problem.
Rob,
I love what you have done with the TEF formula and think that there are only a few things you should look at adding.
First make sure the broad jump is done in inches like the vertical. So (feet*12+inches/108)^3.
Second, you should account for the standard size at each position within the formula. Having the vert be modified based on weight. Having the broad jump modified by weight. Having the bench be modified by the arm length.
This would help account for the difference of someone like ifedi’s measurables in the vert and broad jump at 325lbs vs spriggs doing it 301lbs. This would also drop some of the explosive scores on the lighter defensive players. The average weight of the OL players has to be close to 300, whereas the average weight of the DL especially with the tweener types added in at 250lbs ish is probably a lot closer to 270-280. I bet that would go a long way into minimizing the disparity you mentioned has been happening between offensive and defensive players coming out of the college ranks into the NFL. I’m definitely not saying that it isn’t there, but probably not as large as originally thought.
So back to the formula, I am not sure if it would be better to use a base measurable for each like 310 for OL 300 for DT 270 for DE and just use the difference, or probably the more accurate method would be to just use the exact #’s then use the average in the second half.
Sprigg’s new score
For Vert we compare weight to the average lets say 300lbs. (people who weigh less will have to have bigger numbers to compared to people who weigh more).
1. Vertical: 35 ÷ 31 = 1.13 [OLD] vs (35 / 31) * (301 / 300) = 1.133 [NEW]
For Broad we first switch feet and inches to inches. Then we compare weight to the average lets say 300lbs. (people who weigh less will have to have bigger numbers to compared to people who weigh more).
2. Broad: 9.7 ÷ 9 = 1.1 [OLD] vs (115 / 108) * (301 / 300) = 1.068 [NEW]
3. Broad cubed = 1.26 [OLD] vs 1.218 [NEW]
For bench we compare their arm length to the sought out amount of 32. More reps with longer arms is more impressive than more reps with shorter arms.
4. Bench: 31 ÷ 27 = 1.15 [OLD] vs (31 / 27) * (34.125 / 32) = 1.224 [NEW]
5. Added together Spriggs’ score is 3.54 [OLD] vs 3.575 [NEW]
Spriggs looks pretty similar. But now lets compare Ifedi.
Ifedi’s new score
1. Vertical: (32.5 / 31) * (324 / 300) = 1.132 [NEW]
2. Broad: (109 / 108) * (324 / 300) = 1.09 [NEW]
3. Broad cubed = 1.295 [NEW]
4. Bench: (24 / 27) * (36 / 32) = 1.0 [NEW]
5. Added together Ifedi’s score is 3.427 [NEW]
Comparing Spriggs new score of 3.575 to Ifedi’s 3.427 still shows Spriggs to be the superior athlete, however it is a lot closer to than the original comparison of 3.54 to 2.97. I think this proves that using this new formula model will help account for the size of the athletes as well.
Rob, Please let me know what you think… going do a sub post on my own here to do one of the lighter people using the same formula to see how much different it is.
Bronson Kaufusi
Vert: (30 / 31 ) * (285 / 300) = 0.919
Broad: (111 / 108) * (285 / 300) = 0.976
Broad cubed = 0.930
Bench: (25 / 27) * (34.5 / 32) = 0.998
Added together gets a new TEF of 2.847
Connor McGovern
Vert: (33 / 31 ) * (306 / 300) = 1.086
Broad: (109 / 108) * (306 / 300) = 1.029
Broad cubed = 1.090
Bench: (33 / 27) * (32.875 / 32) = 1.256
Added together gets a new TEF of 3.432
Interesting insight Charles, thank you.
Hey, Charles. Thanks for the thoughts. I’m certainly not Rob but I hope you’ll allow me I’d like to throw in my 2 cents.
Basically, I don’t think the TEF formula should be modified in the ways you suggest. Here are the reasons:
1. Even though the number for the broad jump is technically flawed in a strict mathematical sense, continuing to use feet and inches as a decimal gives it just the right amount of weight in the formula. Rob said he originally left it that way just for simplicity’s sake on a long night, but it ended up JUST RIGHT. This has been shown by applying it to all Seahawks draft classes since 2012. It just works. Perfectly. (Britt exactly at the min. 3.00, etc.)
2. Although an ideal formula to put all these athletes on the same scale (haha, pun intended) would require adding in weight, I see it as an unnecessary complication. These metrics are most useful to give you a baseline, then you just apply common sense. You know that the number Ifedi is putting up is at a bigger size, and subjectively factor that in. Besides, if you factor weight into the formula you run into the problem of a hypothetical “what if he gained/lost X lbs.?, then his TEF score would be ideal, etc.” Don’t think it’s worth opening that can of worms.
3. I do like the idea of factoring in arm length. Rob has said he thinks they would give leeway to a guy with longer arms, but if he wanted to make it official in the formula, maybe he could just say that every inch above the minimum arm length for OL (33″) counts as one rep. So Ifedi, for example, with his 36 inch arms, would be given 3 reps. of leeway and his 24 reps would equal the ideal bench score of 27.
I’m with Charles here.
To your points:
1) If you want to be correct you have to use inches. And the point that the original TEF fits so nicely for BrItt. Well, I don’t think Rob thought on that when creating TEF?
2) You can find hypotheticals like “what i f he gained weight” all over the place. What if one goes more to the weigth room?
And the product of acceleration and weight tells you more then just acceleration. Hit a bowling ball with basketball or vice versa.
3) Arm length could even be weighted more then Charles does because it helps a lot on the football field.
Thanks Schuemansky, I appreciate it =o)
1. He decided to cube the broad jump scores to show its important compared to the other two scores for explosiveness, but it also works out better since the vert can pretty easily be 3 times as big a number as the broad jump, which would skew its importance in the formula when compared to the broad jump. Not wanting to try and improve on the formula where 9’1″ and 9’10” are scored as the same value is asinine.
2. As far as the weight for the broad jump goes, the weight changing would not matter unless they were able to show that they could achieve the same result at the various different weights. If he gained X lbs and was able to do the same broad jump and vert as he could with less pounds, shouldn’t that be shown in his ability to be more explosive in maintaining the distance while having to carry more weight to do it? The same goes with losing X lbs, it doesn’t change the measurement unless he also does the test again.
3. Glad you see merit in factoring it in.
Not sure if you will be back here to see this, but:
“Not wanting to try and improve on the formula where 9’1″ and 9’10” are scored as the same value is asinine.”
You are right, that would be asinine, which is why Rob rounds anything above 9’9″ up to 10. Sorry, I assumed you knew that.
Why would rounding anything above 9’9″ to 10′ make any more sense than just converting it to inches?
You guys are building something great here.
Charles Tapper
Vert: (34 / 31 ) * (271 / 300) = 0.991
Broad: (119 / 108) * (271 / 300) = 0.995
Broad cubed = 0.985
Bench: (23 / 27) * (34.375 / 32) = 0.915
Added together gets a new TEF of 2.901
This seems more realistic in comparing his explosiveness compared to people doing the same drills at 30+ pounds. It is still not a bad score, but is not nearly as close as his 3.32 score when not accounting for the weight difference. Have a feeling if I were to do Sheldon Rankins or Robert Nkemdiche’s, their results would be a lot closer to the original numbers because they are a lot more similar in size to the OL we are comparing them to for the base numbers…
http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-2016-nfl-draft-prospects-results.html
In light of the new trend of quantifying athletes… Paints an interesting picture for Keyarris Garrett, whom I had not heard of yet.
Im in love with this kid Garret, been trying to get folks excited about him on this blog for weeks. He plays for the same College as Steve Largent did. He’s ultra-productive, has tremendous size and is physical, and is fast enough. ANd he’s a good kid with a Baldwin-like chip on his shoulder that he’s not getting any draft buzz.
So Garrett doenst break more than one tackle, and he never ran a Post or Corner Route in college…and he also only lined up on the Right Side of the field, pretty much. He’s going to be a bit of project, for sure. But he ran a lot of slants, and if you can run a slant, you can run the post…
Now that you’ve worked so hard on this, Rob, I wonder if you’d be willing to speculate on the impact that Budget & Contract might have on the actual expenditure of the 1st round pick for an O-Lineman.
With the Budget frugality already displayed on the O-Line, the addition of a $2 Million Rookie would create a large disparity(and a potential Cap issue). Not to mention the hard feelings it could cause. Additionally, the whole character of our team seems to be defined by hungry and intense Men who would require a lot from anyone with an aura of entitlement.
Suffice it to say, a successful Seahawks 1st Round O-Lineman will need a pretty special personality, as well as Mad Skills!
Unless something unforeseen like Rankins falling to the Seahawks happens, I can most definitely see them trying to trade into the second round from 26. It’s as if they almost view having the least amount of first round picks as a badge of courage and helps keep the “no respect” or hungry beast alive.
I also see them potentially using what they can get from their first rounder to potentially using that pick or picks to move up with their second round pick to get two identified guys. We’ll find out in a few weeks!
A round two duo of the following would make me very happy: Fackrell/McGovern, Hargrave/McGovern, Bullard/McGovern would be awesome. I’d like to throw in Nick Martin, but based on his measurables, I doubt they would go that way anymore. Maybe Ryan Kelly, too (he’s closer to the 3.0). Looks like they’d love McGovern though and he should be there if they moved up a bit in the second with their own pick. Might even be there with their pick.
Can’t wait for the wait to finally be over though.
I agree, Bobbyk, a trade down is likely for Seattle–IF teams are interested and will cough up something decent. I cant see Rankins falling (bummer), nor Seattle trading up in the first.
Rob,
Shawn Oakman has always had a more impressive body than game tape, do you think he would make a good tackle convert? Fits with TEF, probably as raw as Clark when it comes to fundamentals, but athletically is a monster and could be had likely in round 4/5
Oakman is currently under investigation for rape. It is still in the investigation stage, so they are only allegations. Still, I would stay away from him right now.
Frank Clark was under investigation and alleged, too. It all depends. (Unfortunately.)
The situation regarding Frank Clark was after the investigation had run it’s course. The Oakman investigation is just beginning. Plus, Oakman already had a strike against him when he was kicked off the Penn State team.
If a team drafts Oakman and he is brought up on charges, that team will be guilty by association and raked over the coals.
I was all for drafting Clarke. But in the Case of Oakman. FORGET IT. As Coug1990 said. The Clarke case had run its coarse. The case of Oakman is UNDER INVESTIGATION.
If Oakman is brought up on charges and found guilty, that would be the third recent Baylor player convicted of rape. Something is not right with the type of player that Art Briles is recruiting. He is winning with them much like Nebraska and Tom Osborne did when he recruited the Lawrence Phillips and the Christian Peters of the world.
If you win big, a lot gets overlooked.
Apparently I’ve been out of the news cycle on that one… Yuck. Well throwing that idea into the waste bin
I understand the need for a couple of good o linemen, and interior defensive linemen. But has any body given any thought to what happens if Wilson goes down with a serious injury?
There is the problem of not having a solid backup on the roster currently if Wilson goes down, however, the talk about OL and DL is mostly about the early rounds and it would be a waste to pick a QB early on.
Im sure Seattle has given it some thought, and continues to do so. They want T-Jack back pretty badly, but he wont sign unless he cant find a spot elsewhere where he might get to compete for playing time. He also has a chance to earn more money elsewhere, so he still might leave.
If he does sign elsewhere, it will probably not happen until after the Draft. Seattle will likely continue looking to find a backup with upside in the Draft, as they have every year. PC and JS have said they look for a qb every year, it just hasnt worked out. There might be a bit more impetus to find a capable young backup prospect sooner rather than later, with T-Jack aging and looking for a better spot.
Prescott may be of interest, but Denver is reportedly really checking him out, and they are likely to be able to spend a higher pick than Seattle can afford on a qb like him.
It’s been brought up a little bit, but what are thoughts on Clemson WR Charone Peake? It seems that there might be a slight motivational issue, but put him in camp with Doug mentoring him, and I think he’ll be just fine. He has all the physical tools to become a great wideout, plus I love watching him run through guys instead of walking out of bounds.
Seems like he got a lot of positive reviews around Senior Bowl time. With it being a weaker WR class I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on day 2. With how our WR group looks now not sure I’d take a WR before day 3 or undrafted unless it’s a guy they really love.
Rob,
I think you’re definitely onto something here, but the analysis needs to go deeper. How does this explosive score correlate with actual success in the NFL? Pure athleticism obviously matters, but selecting O-linemen in this manner doesn’t seem to have worked very well so far for us, with many of our draft picks struggling mightily in past pro. It would be nice to see a piece correlating the TEF score with years in the NFL, years as a starter, pro bowls, etc.
The intention of the formula is not to prove success or failure. It’s merely to identify who will or will not be targeted by the Seahawks in the draft.
Exactly. I may not like the TEF as a talent-pool evaluator for the O-line, and I do think they are likely to use a more complex version and bring intangibles into the mix, but it is clear that you have identified a metric that closely follows the guys Seattle has taken in the Draft. Seattle IS using some form of TEF to identify potential draftees on the O-line, like it or not.
This is a fantastic analogy by Rob to show the method (or close to it) to their madness. Many fans have simply stated “Cable guys” with respect to the OL picked, as if the team is throwing darts at player names in a smoke filled room or simply picking guys he likes and not caring if they are any good.
Rob – Have you noticed how many times you say something and then an “expert” will chime in with the players you first identified (and why)? I read the mock on the Seattle Times and they have a bunch of guys that you likened to the Hawks. Funny (I’m sure annoying when it comes to people portraying something as “their” idea). lol
I saw the Times Mock, Bobbyk, and I had to laugh they had Tyler Ervin going to Seattle in the sixth round. Im no Draft Expert, but I cant see him falling even close to that far–he’s too good a football player, with too many teams giving him hard looks, to drop that hard.
I think we can all hope that Bob Condotta, Seahawks beat writer for the Seattle Times, knows more about the upcoming draft than we do, for he has projected, in part:
R1 – Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA
R2 – Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
R3 – Ryan Nassib, DE, Penn St
R3 – Le’Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
R6 – Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose St
…I will take that in a New York minute!
Can’t see them drafting Clark in round one — completely goes against what they’ve ever done.
Ifedi won’t last to round two, Clark round three or Ervin round six.
Now, if rankins dropped to around 18ish do you think we would make a go of trading up for him? The more I watch the more I love. Mind you that I think he is gone by 15 but let’s say he slides to 18-20, do you move up for a talent like him?
Not sure if you covered this but ….
With the pool of TEF players is there any that fit the ” I have a chip on my shoulder” or I am one mean dude ….
Sure. All of the qualified offensive linemen have something of an edge to them.
Rob, I know that the focus is the lines at the front end of the draft and everyone seems to be settled on Tyler Irvin as the hoped for RB candidate in the draft. But I’m wondering as the time builds towards the draft he might be buzzed up to be obtainable. Is there still consideration for a Darius Jackson or Keith Marshall speedy guys (I really like both these two as possible Beasty candidates). Or a Kenyon Drake, C.J. Prosise, Kenneth Dixon maybe even back on that Derrick Henry “the bruiser” possibility.
Is the voting closed? Has there been a decision? Is the RB discussion closed and Tyler Irvin is crowned draft candidate?
I think Marshall, based on his 2015 tape, is virtually finished. He looked like a shadow of his pre-injury form.
Darius Jackson is very athletic and might be someone they look at. I think they’ll have a few others they like too.
Thanks Rob, you’re the best!
LA Tech DT Vernon Butler in Seattle. VMAC visitor.
It’s amazing to realize a guy his size (6’4″, 323 lbs) actually accomplishes a 3.0 of the TEF scale (taking into account his pro day numbers).
Where do they like him is the question?
Because if he played any other position, I don’t think it would matter. Seattle will take a guy in round 4 with a 6th round ‘grade’ or whatever else.
But, as a DT that isn’t a premier pass rusher at the position, I’m curious.
Round 2? A trade back into the earl part of the second?
IMO, he fits the productive, athletic (not a SPARQ monster), that is still somewhat raw with a ceiling/potential this is sky high.
It would have to be at least by the second round. I mentioned his pro day results. The thing is, he blew up his pro day, adding seven inches to his broad jump and another four to his vert from his Combine results. That would have put him near the top ten for all DT in SPARQ, with a Michael Pierce out of Samford the only one close to his weight. Combine the athleticism with his Senior Bowl week exploits, and I can’t see him making it to the third.
Fellow SDBers… I’ve been out of town so I don’t know if this has been posted; from Peter King’s MMQB: Four NFL personnel directors said that this is an average draft, lacking special talent. One said “25-55 is the same player”. Another said same thing about “11-40”, and a third mentioned “18-48”. The forth one said “Load me up with ‘twos’ and ‘threes'”.
Sounds like they have been reading Rob’s blog.
But seriously, if our guy isn’t there can’t you see them moving down?
Sure.
The g.m. and coach the last couple drafts have focused in other areas (wr – def) will they address the issue of offense line or just let Wilson run for his life and “make the play”s.