Will Levis could easily be the top pick in 2023
You’re going to hear a lot of things about the 2023 quarterback class.
For example, take this pair of tweets:
I went with the under 6.5 QBs in the first round of the 2023 class but @MelKiperESPN and I agree it’s shaping up to be a great QB class next year! https://t.co/y5D6wUVvhP
— Todd McShay (@McShay13) May 2, 2022
Already, Mel Kiper is predicting we might see seven quarterbacks drafted in the first round. McShay goes with the more conservative ‘under’ on the 6.5 projection.
If you look around the internet you’ll see all kinds of weird and wonderful predictions. The hype is out of control already. So much so that pretty much any quarterback who played well in college last season is being touted as a potential first rounder.
For example, I read a list recently that had Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Jaren Hall projected as viable options for the ‘early first round’ as the third, fourth and fifth best prospects at the position.
It was a perfect example that silly season is here eight months earlier than usual.
None of those three players, at this point, deserve to be discussed as first round prospects. It doesn’t mean they can’t work their way into that conversation with their play in 2022. Players always emerge, develop and promote their stock. After all, Joe Burrow was seen as a late day three pick before his final season at LSU. Zach Wilson emerged from nowhere to be the #2 pick in 2021. Nobody was talking about Kenny Pickett as a first rounder 12 months ago either.
Yet we also need to be realistic about these players. For that reason, after a week studying the names below, I wanted to share some notes.
Even among the consensus ‘best two’ (Bryce Young & C.J. Stroud) I think there’s a lot of misinformation and hype out there.
As of today, I think there are four quarterbacks you can say with some degree of confidence deserve to be talked about as a potential day one pick…
1. Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
For me it’s pretty clear that Levis is the early contender to be the first quarterback drafted. He has everything the modern franchise quarterback needs. He is big, athletic and has a strong arm. He’s 6-3, 232lbs, ran a 4.10 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 36 inch vertical. His overall score was a 123.27 — which is seriously impressive for a quarterback who was already 224lbs in High School. He can throw to all levels of the field with touch and velocity. His throwing base is impressive and keeps him accurate. He shares similarities to Josh Allen as both a passer and as a physical, creative runner. He has elevated Kentucky to a new level and he doesn’t benefit from an amazing supporting cast. He has a ‘wow’ factor that the other quarterbacks simply don’t have. He’s also best prepared to enter the league having spent a year with Liam Coen — a hand-picked Sean McVay protégé who has now returned to the Rams to be McVay’s offensive coordinator. Coen has been replaced by Kyle Shanahan’s QB coach Rich Scangarello. So he’s operating in a translatable offense to the pro’s, competing in the SEC for a non-powerhouse (and succeeding). He’s adept at play-action and he’s worked with pro-concepts. If he can continue to excel at Kentucky and reduce his number of turnovers in 2022, for me he should be universally seen as the front-runner to challenge Alabama’s incredible pass rusher Will Anderson to be the #1 pick in 2023.
2. Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)
I think there’s every chance Van Dyke can elevate himself into the QB2 position with a strong 2022 season. I’ll start with the concern I voiced a few days ago — Mario Cristobal. His horrible offensive vision stymied Justin Herbert and made him a harder evaluation than necessary. There’s already talk from Miami’s Spring camp that TVD is throwing a lot of the underneath stuff Herbert was lumbered with. The endless check-downs, screens and short-slants will not suit Van Dyke. He has a rocket arm and is at his best attacking opponents — just as he did when he expertly out-gunned Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh on the road. He took over from D’Eriq King with Miami looking a bit of a shambles and transformed their season with a 5-1 run. According to PFF he was the only quarterback in the FBS to finish in the top-10 for passing yards, touchdowns, big-time throws and big-time throw rate in the second half of the season. He stands tall in the pocket and his base is impressive for a young QB. He plants his feet nicely, steps into his throws and it helps him stay accurate. His passes carry strong velocity. The ball flicks out of his hand on release — the throwing finger spinning it out with a little extra juice to launch downfield. He does tend to drop his shoulder down and his release is a little more elongated than ideal. It’s not a deal-breaker but it’s something to note. He throws into the right areas of the field, leading his receivers and playing with anticipation. He’s not the most mobile quarterback (5.00 forty at SPARQ) but he can scramble away to make a first down from time to time. He’s not overly elusive or creative as a runner and it’s something he says he’s been working on. If the offensive scheme doesn’t hold him back, TVD could easily be QB2 and a top-10 pick next year.
3. Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
The first thing we have to note with Young is his size. I am very sceptical of his listed 6-0, 194lbs frame. I suspect he’s shorter and lighter than that. There aren’t many players drafted early with that size. Kyler Murray has a stocky frame and let’s be fair here, is a thoroughly unique player with an outstanding skill set. Young’s size won’t necessarily prevent him going very early but it’s something to keep in mind. On the field he is a master processor who appears to do a great job in his mental preparation because he’s adept at understanding what a defense is giving, identifying his keys and delivering an accurate football to the right place on time. He has the arm strength to throw downfield and into tight windows. He can scramble, improvise and create. At Alabama he hasn’t been challenged too often and when teams have brought consistent pressure (eg Georgia) his footwork and mechanics have suffered. It’s fair to wonder how he will translate from playing for Alabama to potentially one of the worst teams in the NFL. I would suggest at this point he has first round potential — rather than declaring he’s a nailed-on top-five pick like many websites and analysts.
4. C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Stroud is a complex and nuanced evaluation for different reasons. The Buckeyes offense is mass-production and has been for a long time — and hasn’t translated to pro-success for a string of quarterbacks. He has been throwing to the #10 pick in the 2022 draft (Garrett Wilson), the #11 pick (Chris Olave) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — who I think is better than Wilson and Olave. Let’s just acknowledge that’s an advantage many college players don’t have. He lit up the Rose Bowl and gained rave reviews but when you break down the tape, Utah’s depleted secondary couldn’t cover and had no answers. It was painful to watch. There were so many wide open, huge plays. It was easy for Stroud and it’s hard to watch that game and really take much from it. Technically his footwork and base need work to produce more consistent results. He needs to learn not to throw off his toes as much, with his shoulders and legs in the correct position, without as many hitches before throwing and he needs to cut out the bad errors. Given Ohio State never fixed Justin Fields’ technical flaws, I fear for Stroud. He has size, ample arm strength and I’d say the good with Stroud is very, very good and the bad can equally be horrible. An interception against Minnesota thrown needlessly high and wide under no pressure. A pick against Tulsa where he had as much time in the pocket as you’ll ever see on a given play only to launch a terrible pass into double coverage. He threw right to a defender against Nebraska when Smith-Njigba had fallen over, despite having masses of free space in front of him to run for a first down and get out of bounds. The decision making even from a clean pocket when the obvious decisions are in front of him is a concern. Remember — both Fields and Dwayne Haskins were once considered very high picks from this offense and both lasted into the mid-first round rather than the top-five. I think that is a likely outcome for Stroud based on what I’ve seen so far.
Here are some brief thoughts on other players touted as potential first round picks but they either don’t warrant that projection or they will need to elevate their grade during the 2022 season…
Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
His 2021 season was a disaster, he was rightly benched and he has an enormous challenge to repair his stock. Rattler’s problem is he needs to learn how to play quarterback. Sounds important, right? At Oklahoma he played with arrogance — trusting his arm way too much to continuously make ill-advised throws into double or sometimes even triple coverage, believing he could just ‘fit it in there’. There were no signs of mental processing, working a defense, taking what was given. He doesn’t throw with anticipation. He does have physical tools. He’s not a particularly quick or dynamic scrambler but he does have the ability to make off-script highlight plays. He can throw off-platform and on the move. He does have good arm strength. He needs to learn how to play in structure and make an offense function, rather than just try to play hero-ball. There’s no way I could consider him a first round prospect at this stage. He has a point to prove but he’s now playing in the unforgiving SEC.
Jake Haener (QB, Fresno State)
We need to be realistic about what these players are. Haener is an accomplished college passer and the system at Fresno State suits his skill-set. He can play within structure and he shows a tremendous amount of grit — bouncing back from big hits and playing through the pain barrier. He is what he is though — a 6-1, 195lbs passer who will be in his mid-20’s as a rookie and lacks the physical tools to warrant anything like a first round grade. He doesn’t ‘wow’ you in any way. His arm is decent but not great. His accuracy is inconsistent at times and there are some concerning misses on tape. He doesn’t handle pressure that well and he gets antsy in the pocket too often — bailing on plays too early or setting off when he just needs to sit and wait. College football produces players like this all the time and how many go in the first round? Seeing people project him in that range is a major head-scratcher for me. I just don’t get it. And that’s nothing against him. I’ll watch a Fresno State game and enjoy it, mainly because he’s a fun, competitive player. But there’s a difference between that and being a high draft pick for the NFL.
Phil Jurkovec (QB, Boston College)
I’m not sure how anyone can project Jurkovec based on the tiny sample size we have available. After transferring from Notre Dame because he couldn’t usurp Ian Book, he’s had one Covid-impacted season at Boston College and a second season where he only played six games due to injury issues. In two of those six games he went 3/11 for 19 yards and two interceptions in a defeat to Wake Forest and he was 3/4 for 22 yards against UMass before leaving with a bad wrist. He lost to Florida State while completing 41.7% of his passes and his best statistical performance came in a 51-0 win against Colgate where he threw three touchdowns. You can’t look at that, or the tape, and have any serious idea of him being a first round pick. He has quite a hunched, over-the-top throwing motion and his frame is akin to watching a Minecraft character — he’s quite stocky and square. He’s very capable of throwing downfield if given time but there are also examples of passes where he’s just off with his accuracy ever so slightly — throwing to the wrong side of a receiver, giving them too much to do, leading them into trouble. I need to see more to make a proper assessment but if we’re being honest, he shouldn’t even be mentioned as a viable first round pick at this point. He needs to play a full season and stay healthy.
Jaren Hall (QB, BYU)
One trap people fall into is seeing a school where a player emerged from nowhere to go #2 overall (Zach Wilson), then the next time they have a reasonable quarterback starting, you lurch towards making a comparison or thinking lightning will strike twice. Hall is not Wilson. There’s a reason Wilson went #2 overall. There’s a reason Hall won’t. He is a good athlete and an effective runner. But at this stage he’s a runner and thrower more than a passer, if that makes sense. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t take a leap forward in 2022 and I certainly wouldn’t rule that out. Right now I see him as a very effective college quarterback who can make enough throws in the passing game to complement his running ability and athleticism. Does he look like someone destined to be an early draft pick? Not for me.
Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
He’s thrown 66 passes in college football. Let’s see him actually, you know, play football before determining whether he’s a high pick.
Grayson McCall (QB, Coastal Carolina)
Every now and again a McCall type comes along and makes life fun. A smaller-school over-achiever who will certainly find a home in the NFL. Frankly, it won’t be a surprise if he sticks around either. He has something about him. McCall is reasonably sized, he’s not physically limited, he plays with a lot of grit and he has elevated his team to a new level. These are all things that will impress NFL scouts. Yet his offense is very much designed to attack the intermediate level, his deep-ball accuracy isn’t what it needs to be and he operates in a funky option-offense that isn’t particularly transferable. There are some misses on tape that are concerning — just basic stuff where he throws wide or high. I would be surprised if he generates early-round consideration and see him more as a player who comes into the NFL much in the way Gardner Minshew did and finds a way to stick around. I’m not comparing him to Minshew either — it’s just to me he has the feel of a mid-to-late round project quarterback who has enough about him to stick around, without ever truly convincing anyone he’s a legit NFL starter. That would be my early projection.
Devin Leary (QB, NC State)
He had a breakout 2021 season delivering 35 touchdowns and just five interceptions, leading his Head Coach to declare he’s the best quarterback in college football. I wouldn’t go that far. He has average arm strength and there’s just a distinct lack of ‘wow’ factor with Leary. He’s only 6-1 and 212lbs and he doesn’t have the physical traits to covet as an early rounder. Let’s see how he does this year but right now it’s hard to get too excited about his NFL stock, or imagine him working his way into the first round discussion.
There are also two players I like who will probably not be first round picks but warrant some attention going into the new college season…
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)
I secretly hoped he might declare for the draft this year and provide the Seahawks with a potential mid or later round option. At 6-1 and 205lbs he lacks the elite physical tools to really promote himself into the top range of quarterbacks but DTR is creative, athletic and he just makes things happen. There are some errors on tape and although he only had six interceptions in 2021, most were avoidable. Yet he added 30 total touchdowns and has been driving UCLA forwards. He was impressive in big wins against LCU, USC and California. He ran Oregon close and performed well in a shoot-out against Fresno State. For me he’s better than a lot of the quarterbacks listed above and if he can carry UCLA to another level in 2022 — don’t be surprised if he ends up being one of the late risers in this class.
Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)
He had a two-year mission before joining-up with Stanford so he’s an older player from the same recruiting class as Will Levis. He’s 6-6 and 228lbs and plays like you’d expect at that size. He’s not a mobile, elusive or scrambling quarterback. He’s at his best standing tall in the pocket and delivering the ball. He can throw fade-passes with touch, he can get the ball downfield with velocity and he’s generally accurate. I would say he’s a level below Davis Mills but still retains enough talent to change that this year. The worst case scenario is he’s naturally gifted enough as a passer for someone to take a chance on him in the middle rounds. This is a big opportunity in a wide-open PAC-12. Can he make a name for himself and pump up his stock?
Right now I see four viable first round quarterbacks for the 2023 class — Levis, Van Dyke, Young and Stroud. As proven with Burrow, Wilson and Pickett — players can and will emerge. That could happen again this year.
I think this is a more accurate portrayal of what this class is though — rather than some of the hype out there at the moment with people discussing more than 6-7 players in the first frame while assuming Young and Stroud are going to be the top two players. You have a lot of positional depth — the numbers are certainly up — but there’s a smaller pool of ‘top’ players than people are suggesting.
It’s also worth remembering just how good Alabama’s Will Anderson is. We’re talking about a player who had 17.5 sacks and 33.5 TFL’s in 2021 alone. It’s unquestionably true that he is the best player eligible for the draft in 2023. It’s not all about the quarterbacks at the top of round one.
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Hey Rob, have you watched Cam Rising from Utah? I haven’t studied the QBs enough yet to have a definitive ranking list, but I think he’s a first round QB and I’d for sure take him over the other Pac 12 QBs (DTR, McKee). He’s big, athletic, physical runner, appears to have above average arm strength, I like how he also throws guys open, and seems to be quite the leader. Also, we know the Seahawks are big fans of the Utah program.
I haven’t watched him but is he really a first round prospect??
Because this is the point in the piece. It feels like anyone in college football who can deliver a forward pass at the moment is being touted as a possible first round pick because people are getting carried away just because 2023 is expected to be a better QB class.
Cam Rising really needs to do something more to elevate Utah.
One year starter with a kind of ho-hum stat line. Modestly accurate. Not a lot of turnovers. Utah rarely lets the QB take a ton of chances so i’d like to see his completion percent and yards per attempt go way up.
Valid point Rob. I just think his skill set and intangibles are those of a first round QB. Not saying he’s as good as Levis but I think if we’re discussing TVD as a first round type of QB then it’s fair to say Rising is too
Peter, also valid points, the Utah offense definitely helps out the QB. But “needs to do something more to elevate Utah”?. Led them to a conference championship, and he was leading them to a Rose Bowl win over Ohio State before he got knocked out of the game with a concussion. All with Covey as his best WR. Not sure what more he could do to elevate Utah in his first year as the starter.
But why? TVD is a big armed, downfield playmaker with great size and traits.
Cam Rising, at least from what I’ve seen watching games, is not that at all.
That’s not to say I think he’s bad or anything. But as I said, we’re in danger here of saying everyone is a first rounder now. Every college QB who had a modicum of success.
I’ve never once watched Utah and thought… hey that QB is a player with first round potential. It took three games to realise TVD has that level of talent.
Those are some of the traits I see in Rising though. He’s not as big-armed or as much as a “downfield” playmaker as TVD, but he’s definitely a playmaker and his mobility is quite impressive.
Not saying you have to think he’s a for sure first round QB, but I’d be a little surprised if you rewatched the Rose Bowl and didn’t come away thinking “this guy has first round potential.”
They’re completely different players though Cawww. I’m not trying to be awkward here but let’s just be real about this. They don’t share traits at all.
And in fairness I did watch all of the Rose Bowl and at no point did I think Rising was a first rounder. This is what I keep saying in these comments and the article. People keep chucking names out as possible first round picks in a way I’ve not experienced before. It’s as if all the talk about lots of first round QB’s has opened some kind of floodgate.
Now anyone who’s not awful is a ‘possible first rounder’.
We need to seriously pump the brakes here.
This is one of the reasons why I wrote the piece.
That’s fair Rob, and I get your point about the building up of QBs this year, I just don’t agree with you about Rising, I think he’s legit good (happy to acknowledge that I might be doing exactly what you’re article is about hahaha). For the most part, I’m with you on this class that we need to pump the brakes. I do not buy into any of the other names above outside of your top 4.
Rob, I’ve seen highlights of Levis and like you’ve said, he ticks all the boxes the sort of QB Seattle both PC/JS are looking for and would suit the sort of scheme Seattle wish to pursue, but if Levis is that good, what are the realistic chances of Seattle getting thier QB of preference, could Seattle be beaten to Levis by a team with a higher pick, if so, how much would you be willing to trade to make sure Seattle got their man. If Seattle didn’t get Levis, who would be your 2nd preference, Van Dyke from Miami?
Content is top quality!
I think it’s a bit early to say Shane. I won’t worry too much about it to be honest, we’ll have plenty of time for that come December!
By elevate I simply mean when I watch him play I want to see him be more of the reason for their success. Utah is extremely well coached and Wittingham gets a ton out of players that are often overlooked by other programs.
I’ll definitely be keeping my eye on him. For me, just now, how Utah did last year is how they have been doing for some time regardless of who is under center. A very tough out and the team most likely in the pac 12 to ruin someone’s season.
Lets assume for sake of argument nothing changes btween now and seasons end, they all have great years. I think Levis goes 3rd just due to age. GMs love youth.
Joe Burrow proves that is not true Matty
So does Kenny Pickett (first QB taken, only one in R1)
Let’s just stop all this age stuff now. It’s a total non-factor
I’d like to see Grayson Mccall either really increase his attempts per game or maybe use fifth year eligibility option to transfer to a bigger program. I get he’s probably done after this year but 750 or so attempts at Coastal Carolina is not very many to get a good guage on.
Cameron Ward. The WSU nil team is getting pretty pumped on him but I think he should do two full years at WSU. Like that he’s betting in himself by going to a bigger program…..looking at you Malik Willis…..other than that we have no idea how he really will do.
Cam Rising,I hope because I like Utah can have a dominate game against a big ten opponent (michigan?) In the rose bowl if Utah can win the pac 12. Otherwise if you removed his name and wrote in “tyler huntley,” he’s like a lot of Wittingham’s ideal qb’s. Careful with the ball. Take no chances, make no mistakes.
I too think it will be interesting to see how Cameron Ward does against better competition. He was the top rated QB in the transfer portal this year. He certainly looks the part, and De Laura fled once he heard Ward was coming in.
It’s hard to get too excited about a QB from Incarnate Word though.
When’s the last time a QB transferred from that level to a bigger school and became a high draft pick?
Exactly. This is his chance. That’s what makes the crucible of college football so interesting. He has had tremendous success in that offensive system, but can he do it against top level competition? WSU is betting he can. He’s a big strong kid, but can he read more talented, and better coached defenses, AND make the right decisions? We will find out.
I’m not sure he’s going to face much ‘top level competition’ in the PAC-12
Still better than the likesof liberty/incarnate word
Maybe that can be the PAC-12’s new tagline.
😆
Newton?
He went from Florida to JUCO to Auburn
Rob – if the Hawks had the first pick, knowing what we know now, would you take Anderson or Levis?
Not Rob – Levis for me unless Drew Lock balls out and is our best future
Ask me again in 9 months.
Asked another way, if the draft were today and you were JS, who would you select with the first pick in the draft?
It isn’t today though — it’s just not a question I want to go into now. Like trying to solve a murder mystery five mins into the film
For me, I guess it would depend on where our 2nd pick is. I’m leaning towards Levis and then BPA with the 2nd 1st. But if we had the #1 and #3, and TVD (for argument’s sake) was rated equally to Levis, then maybe draft Anderson first.
Hi Rob
I think most SDB followers are all aboard the Will Levis QB train. I am hoping to see Levis completion rate in the mid to high 60% Will Levis reminds me more of a Favre gunslinger because Levis arm strength is so noticeable. Do you think having a new coordinator will hinder Levis progression?
Also I think this NCAA season the SDB followers will be very keen to see how the QBs do this season and emotionally invest.
thx for your insight and input. For me its Levis or bust
I don’t know — but by going into the pro-ranks for an OC working under a hotshot offensive coach, they’re trying to repeat the formula that worked so well.
Great stuff Rob!! I’ve seen a few mocks already that have Levis and TVD in the Top 10. Stroud and Levis take turns as the consensus top QB. I never would’ve heard of Levis or TVD had it not been for SDB. Kudos! Will LOSE for LEVIS be the 23’ theme? At the moment, I see Lions, Giants, Panthers, Vikings, Texans and Hawks as the teams looking for a QB and most likely in the top 10. I’m hoping a few teams with established QBs or Jax, end up with Top pick so that Levis and TVD fall a bit. Ideally the hawks would make 2 picks in 1st round, instead of trading up to pick one of these QBs. Or better yet, broncos go 1-15 and hawks go 8-9. Lol.
No.
Tanking creates a losing culture.
A losing culture can hang over a team for decades
Rob thank you for the great quarterback insights. How many “game wrecking” defensive players may be in the 2023 draft? Perhaps a subject of a future post. My thought is a high end defense is critical to winning the Super Bowl. Consider the Seahawks were ready to trade up to get Kayvon Thibodeaux. In my alternate reality vision – the Seahawks go after a game wrecking defensive player instead of a quarterback in the first round.
There’s one definite game wrecker and a handful of others who could turn into game wreckers
I know people are going to put a lot of names of guys who suck on the QB watchlist but I really think we should keep an eye on Michael Penix jr. At Washington. Transfer from Indiana, beat Michigan and Michigan state consecutive games, threw five tds on the road at Ohio state… if Kalen DeBoer could make Jake Haener look good maybe he can do wonders with Penix, he has more nfl size than haener only issue is injury history
Got an e-mail a little while ago announcing PFN has the 2023 draft simulator ready to go. Clicked on it for the Seahawks and has us projected to pick 9th next year. Stroud and Young go in the top 10 in 2 different attempts. So I checked to see where the other QBs are projected overall before thinking about the Seahawks pick at 9. They’ve got Levis as the 65th best player and TVD at 70. Behind Rattler at 25, Richardson at 29, Hall of BYU is 34, Haener is 47 and McCall is in between at 66.
Apparently PFN doesn’t even believe Levis or TVD are 2nd rounders, but early 3rds. Way outside the top 50. Not at all in the Kiper/ESPN camp, the other end of the spectrum. Hoping Levis is sub-par with losing WR Robinson and some OL that keeps him under the radar like Lucas was this year so we can get him picking around 7 to 12 in 2023.
2023 PFN Mock Draft Simulator
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/
PFN need to get someone else doing those rankings
Clicked it just for fun and Will Anderson went #17 and the Seahawks took an OT at 9.
So yeah.
😂
I can tell you who loves Hall at PFN. It’s Cam Mellor. He has done radio hits in Utah saying how much he loves him and considers him a late 1st rounder. He compares him to a poor man’s Russell Wilson. So if you want to ask why he is rated so high ask him and compare notes.
Ah… the first Russell Wilson comp of the new draft season 🤦♂️
Anderson 17th? That simulator should be binned immediately.
Will Anderson 17th overall about as bad as having Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck fall that far
With Levis ranked 65th I wanted to see how far down I could trade from #9 and #26 and still snag him.
I got to 43 and decided enough was enough.
I added
2023: 3rd and 4th
2024: 2 first round picks, 4 second rounders and a third rounder (So I’d pick 10x in the first three rounds)
Preposterous but fun to dream
McCall is the wild card for me. He is so efficient even when guys are in the backfield every play. Love to see what he does with some opportunities to take snaps under center and throw it deep but hard to knock him for crushing whats put in front of him. I think he could be a guy we will be talking about after next senior bowl as a viable option. Put on some muscle.
Hendon Hooker is another guy i am impressed with. Strong arm, makes timely plays, extends plays, good leader. Poor pass protection and he has still managed to make a lot of impressive plays.
Cooper Legas from utah state is also intriguing as a fit. Not a 1st round profile but impressive decision making and some big time throws in clutch situations.
If levis is gone i wouldn’t be disappointed to wait and take a chance on one of these guys. Outside of levis i don’t really see an upgrade to our team in the other names compared to lock. Maybe someone will rise next year and makes the options expand.
Lamar Jackson was the last pick in the first round. Jimmy g was a 2nd rounder. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were fourth rounders. Wilson a third. This is a deep qb class imo. Don’t have to take one in the first.
So many top ten qbs amount to nothing. San Francisco, imo, made a terrible mistake blowing their resources to secure Lance. I just hope Seahawks don’t get too trigger happy trying to trade up. There will be good options late round 1/ round2.
Sign me up for the over 6.5 and hear me out. It has little to do with player quality and a lot to do with needs in 2023. Teams that will need QBs:
Seattle – No one needs me to explain our QB situation
Houston – Davis Mills is a stopgap starter
Indianapolis – Matt Ryan will be 37 next year
Miami – Tank with Tua!
Atlanta – Marcus Mariota
Carolina – Sam Darnold
Detroit – Jared Goff
New Orleans – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston? Next!
New York Giants – Daniel Jones is in his last year
Tampa Bay – Tom Brady can’t continue to outlast Father Time
Washington – Carson Wenz is not the answer
Potential teams
Pittsburgh – if Kenny Pickett is as low-grade as Tony Pauline claims, he’s a stopgap and a waste of a 2022 1st round pick
Philadelphia – Jalen Hurts is the subject of abuse of many a football writer. Will he step up with his new weapons or fail?
11 teams very likely to need a QB and two more who might be in the market.
You mean desperate NFL reach for QBs? Say it isn’t so!
Solid logic man.
But Trench, we’ve just seen a draft where a whole bunch of those same teams needed a QB and ‘one’ went in the first round. They didn’t reach.
There’s no real reason why they’ll reach next year for inadequate players either.
This is one of the reasons why I wrote this article. People are getting carried away because the media is hyping up the 2023 quarterback class to unrealistic levels. There are, currently, four realistic, legit first round QB prospects with a chance for others to emerge (or for one or more of those four not to declare or see their stock fall). That’s all we really need to project or acknowledge at this point IMO.
To be clear, I’m not disagreeing with you. I appreciate the analysis and level of detail and fully agree that the hype does not match the talent level. The early consensus, emphasis on early, is that this is a significantly stronger set of QB prospects and more teams will need QBs in 2023 than 2022.
I have zero faith that the NFL, an organization that has historically overvalued QBs AND looks to ensure they have the fifth year option will change their tactics as drastically as they did this year. Feels like a one year aberration to me.
• Two all time greats will be a year older – Brady and Ryan. Lots of scuttlebutt about Brady wanting to move to Miami in 2023 as well which would remove Miami from the list.
• Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray will be looking at contract extensions that their teams might not want to pay if they can more cheaply acquire QBs in the draft. Could these teams be added to the list?
I’m simply saying I’m taking the over and giving you my reasoning. There’s no disrespect intended.
And Big Mike, keep the cheap shot comments to yourself. I’m not interested in childish behavior. I come here for analysis and respectful conversation.
I just think the timing to voice this now is curious — because people were saying this for weeks leading into the 2022 draft. People always overdraft QB’s. And yet it didn’t happen this year. I’d also argue it probably hasn’t happened for a few years now. The last time QB’s were drafted in R1 that weren’t really consensus viewed QB’s that high were 2013 and 2014.
I’m not sure what you mean by “the timing to voice this now is curious”. Are you insinuating there’s an unvoiced intention?
I’m saying I’ll take the over on how many QBs are drafted in rd 1. If anyone wants to make that wager a reality, I’ll put my money where my mouth is. I win, I get $1k. I lose, SDB gets $1k. Any takers?
Nothing sinister about that. We’ve got nearly a year until the next draft. I’m perfectly ok with being wrong.
I think all Rob us insinuating is that people used that same argument this year, and the league proved them wrong. Also, fwiw, 6 qbs is the current record for most qbs drafted in round 1. Would be a historic draft to have more
I said the timing is curious because the NFL is a week removed from doing the exact opposite of what you are suggesting.
And please, we don’t need any of this “I’ll bet a thousand dollars” bravado. Not on here.
I think it’s possible Mario “3 yds and a cloud of dust” Cristobal may well be our best friend as Seahawks fans. His dump off offensive approach could allow Van Dyke to slide to our drafting neighborhood much like it allowed Herbert to drop to #6. Meanwhile, Levis, Young and Stroud will get more publicity and attention while it being possible that Van Dyke could be as good or better than all of them. If that were to happen considering #6 is the neighborhood I expect the Hawks to be drafting in, they could [possibly get their franchise QB without trading up. If that were to happen and if they were to take the same approach to next year’s draft as they did this year’s, then team could be set to make a serious run in ’24 once Van Dyke gets some experience.
This was my thought. Take Will Anderson at 3, take TVD at 15. Let me dream
I doubt Seattle gets the third pick. Like rob has mentioned Pete was more than stoked, and we all were, to win a meaningless playoff gane with a 7-9 record.
I 100% see dirt bag teams tanking but can’t see that with pete. See: wins at the end of last year.
I know folks want to repeat til it’s somehow true that the broncos are ” the fourth team in their division,” until vegas comes off of where they are at with them….currently 8th best odds of winning the superbowl…..i also doubt we will be getting the 15th pick from them.
Will be interesting to see if Cristobal limits Van Dyke like he’s been shown to be capable of before.
#6 overall is pretty much my number as well.
Day 2 rookie mini camp observations are up.
“…Smith and second-round pick Boye Mafe have also started to form a quick bond as Seattle’s two newest edge rushers.
“Boye, when you see him, he’s all smiles,” Smith said. “He’s just like me. I feel like we just instantly connected at the Senior Bowl when we were there. I feel like we had a connection because we made each other work hard and we both turned each other up in a way. Boye’s my guy, I was happy to see him at the Combine and I was happy to see him again when we met up here.”…”
https://www.seahawks.com/news/notes-from-day-2-of-2022-seahawks-rookie-minicamp
Rob and SDB team
There is lots of discussion on Ken Walker RB selection. I’m totally fine with RB but Rob rated Hall over Ken. Note Rob liked Ken but rated Hall ahead.
I’m little worried it is not Chubb / Penny situation. Ken is also not consider as 3 down player and bad in pass coverage.
Your thoughts?
I had them rated in the exact same range
Thanks Rob.
It appears to me that Hall may be the more accomplished pass catcher and Walker may be the better actual runner. This would seem to fit Seattle well, as they have never really used their RB’s a ton in the pass game! It’s a good pick! Walker won’t have to carry the full load right away (unless Penny gets injured immediately), which should give him time to work on his pass blocking and catching!
https://walterfootball.com/draft2023.amp Looks like Rob predicted or influenced Walter footballs mock, they gave us taking Levis at 13
Walter Football is where web designers go to die.
Would be funny if they put a page counter and some dancing bears on that site.
At least it loads on phones. There was a time about three drafts back where it wouldn’t load on android because the pop ups were so bad i just had to stop looking at it.
That site is so mid-90s web design that I can barely handle it. I do some web development as part of my job and that site makes me die a little inside.
This. ^
They just keep building on top of the same old bad foundation. If I ever gave them money it could end up in the bank account of a long dead terrorist.
The more I think about this draft the more I like it.
If the Hawks come out of this draft with a starting RT, LT, Edge Rusher and RB then it had to be an A grade draft. Then is either of the CB or WR works out then it is an A++
With another great draft this team could be back in contention quick if the QB spit gets figured out.
Why in the world do we still have to hear about Mel Kiper every draft season? What qualifications does he have other than being paid to be wrong for so long?
Mel is a national treasure. I like him. He’s pure draft entertainment.
Goofus that he may be, he almost single handily made the draft into something to pay attention to.
And his hair is perfect!
😆
That hairline keeps creeping back though.
Of course.
Full info for every team:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1522613494889259014
As long as thry cut the crap with the way they dealt with covid last year letting some teams get healthy while others were left to pound sand.
Seattle’s air miles is brutal but every year seattle ends up being one of if not tge team with the most travel.
The afc north could all be bus trips. And if dallas was an actual east coast team that division could be local train routes. I have friends in philly that get pretty great prices on car services to get into NY.
Another reason to hate the stealers, not that I needed more.
Trying to figure out who amongst the QB’s is the better deep ball thrower. Lock, Geno, other?
I know there’s been about two seasons worth of hand wringing about whether the former qb could, would, or would not throw over the middle and “take what’s given.”
Looking at the WR’s is it time to maybe acknowledge some part of that was that the head coach is in love with fast to faster guys who are built for deep strikes?
Super into Kenneth Walker III. Yet again it’s rb’s w/o a ton of pass catching chops, a pass catching TE built like a big WR, and a squad of over the top guys all rocking burner speed. Hopefully some of the plays change to combat the rams, etc. But I still see a lot of slow developing pass plays due to Pete’s desire to kill defenses with deep shots.
Wrong Peter. It was all Wilson’s fault all the time.
😆 well someone drafted lj collier….
Well to hear some people (here and elsewhere), he was influencing who they drafted 🙄
Crazy as it sounds I want Drew Lock to be either really good this year or flat out terrible. Either we have our QB of the future or we have a high pick next year. The worst thing that could happen Is that he is an Andy Dalton type who is good enough to win games with a great run game but never good enough to win a playoff game. That’s how you get stuck in 8-10 win purgatory.
I don’t think that sounds crazy at all.
Me neither. Solid logic imo
Maybe they’d be bold enough to still move off if he is just mediocre.
Talking about productive QBs having neither a OL , nor a WR or a RB to speak of, we have to add Brennan Armstrong, UVA to the fold.
I like Levis. But to say, he has had no support is not true. He had a well-seasoned senior OL, and a great WR in Wan’dale Robinson. He also has 13 INTs next to what is not a superb TD count. Lots of work to do for him. The good part is: he knows it. So, count me in.
Who said he had no support?
I said he didn’t have the amazing supporting cast of a QB playing for Alabama or Ohio State. That’s very clear in the article.
And ‘one’ receiver and an OL containing two bang average NFL prospects is hardly an amazing supporting cast is it?
He doesn’t have lots of work to do either. He’s a prospective #1 overall pick. Let’s not try too hard to push back here.
Kentucky had a top ten recruiting class this year.
Alabama has had the #1 class 8 of the last 10 years. Bryce young may be good. Or he may be a guy like a few of their other qb’s getting to play with the best in the nation at nearly every position.
And I wouldn’t touch Stroud. Who was the last ohio st. QB to actually be a franchise level NFL guy?
.
.
.
Seriously, anyone know?
I think the answer might be none.
Joe Burrow?
Of course he transferred first…
How they couldn’t get him in the field so he could go on to throw 60 td’s for lsu is beyond me.
Well to be fair, Burrow only threw 16 TDs his first year at LSU. The late Dwayne Haskins who beat him out threw for 50 that year. The year Burrow threw for 60, he had a phenomenal supporting cast and was coached by Joe Brady, and OSU had Fields throw for over 40 in his first season with OSU. So its not like Burrows was beat out by guys with limited production. The point stands that neither of the OSU QBs showed/have showed anything. I would chalk up Burrows development to Brady though.
I am one that is still intrigued by Stroud though. All points against him are valid.
Rex Kern, Big Mike? No wait, he was a highly touted NFL wash-out, as well. I can’t think of ANY OSU QB’s who really succeeded at the pro level.
Bo Nix and KJ Jefferson are two other intersting QBs for the 2023 draft.
Well Nix did do a fine job of beating Oregon in his first ever start in College football so there’s that.
Bo Nix just needs to focus on getting a gig with Oregon. He’s a mile off the NFL radar
Does feel like we’re still just naming QB’s now rather than talking about legit R1 or NFL prospects
People are so qb hungry rn that theyre just throwing at a dartboard of college qbs
💯
Former Georgia Bulldog and current WVU QB JT Daniels has the profile to possibly invest himself into this conversation barring he avoids his penchants for injury. Performed well with the requisite arm strength to move the ball to all areas of the field and enough athleticism to keep plays alive when the pocket collapsed. I think it says more about Kirby doing things his way as to why he couldn’t take the starting job back from Frodo Baggins when he was healthy. Daniels will be reunited with the coach that was part of his recruiting process and first season at USC so shouldn’t be too much in learning the offense. Only real question is his supporting cast and his ability to stay on the field.
Former USC Trojan AND Georgia Bulldog. Lets see if he can hold down a gig before we talk about him.
hypothetical; if we pick up baker what is lock worth in a trade? a fifth? fourth? third?
tampa? indy? atlanta? etc?
No
To everything
I don’t think PCJS are actually interested in Baker. I do think they’d be interested in Jimmy G but I’m guessing the 9ers would eat his 25 mil before they’d cut him. Besides, considering Lance could be a bust, they are gonna keep him imo.
What if Baker is legit not better than Lock and the only thing separating them is reps?
Baker is such a non factor. I think he gets a call like week four from a team with season ending injuries at qb.
This is a good point to raise.
Mayfield has never had a season with close to a 100 QB rating. His TD/INT ratio is 92/56. His most productive season in terms of touchdown passes? His rookie season.
That’s despite playing behind a good O-line, with an elite running game, with a whole host of expensive weapons to throw to, ably supported by a defense led by Myles Garrett.
On every level he’s just distinctly unimpressive.
Anyone know what happened with our invite RB Sincere McCormick.
Was really excited to see him compete for a spot. Looks like he’s no a Raiders UDFA.
Nevermind just saw prefered signing as UDFA. Can’t argue that decision vrs invite.
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1615063/jim-nagy-breaks-down-the-6-seahawks-draft-picks-from-2022-senior-bowl/
Bob Condotta:
– Pete Carroll, asked about KJ Wright saying this week he wants to end career in Seattle, said: “I love K.J. I’ve already talked to him about stuff for the future and all that. I did hear that he talked about playing and we’ve already talked about that.”
– One more to add on this, one UDFA Carroll mentioned as standing out was Vi Jones or NC State, who was playing WLB and wearing Wright’s old number, 50.
https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1523369530554077184?s=20&t=aGdffLJyO8UCFB5CJOx2Ig
I have a feeling KJ will retire and then come back as a coach.
Watch the play at 1:45 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5js0Wv4ivE
He’s just casually throwing a perfect pass 40 yards downfield from the middle of his own end-zone.
TVD is a top, top, top prospect.
Very impressive, watching the video further and he’s a better athlete than I thought he’d be too. Can make throws on the move and pick up yards with his legs well enough.
I’m starting to like TVD as much or even more than Will Levis. My only issue with comparing TVD to Levis is the fact that TVD isn’t much of a runner. I don’t think it’ll bother PC or JS though. As long as their QB has that natural throwing ability then they shouldn’t care.
They are QB1 and QB2
But everyone is obsessed with Stroud and Young
Good. Let them. That leaves Levis and TVD for SEA.
Tyler to Tyler.
By not taking QB this year some pundits giving C+ for Ken pick because they didn’t pick QB. I’m sure JS will study QB for a year and with 2 first and 2 second have ammo to get QB of choice.
And Cristobal is the perfect coach to suppress his draft stock.
Well, Herbert went 6th, so I wouldn’t count on too much of a suppression if he’s as good as he looks so far.
All we need is Cristobal to suppress him just enough to push him down to the Hawks. No idea where Seattle will pick, but I’m guessing 6-8, could even be 4 or 5.
Happy for Sherm. Get those Amazon checks.
Hope that he’s doing better after this past year or so of turmoil off the field, for those involved and his sake.
I think something interesting that might come out of this draft is the pair dynamic of the selections. We’ve heard that Lucas and cross are close, mafe and Smith are close, Bryant and woolen are close. I think this could be a big reason why the class and succeed
Well that changed quickly.
Recently read through a mock draft by CBS that had Will Levis going 1st overall, above Will Anderson and the big program QBs.
They had us selecting a LB!?! with our top pick… then taking Malik Cunningham out of Louisville (Lamar Jackson clone) at pick 26.
Here is the article: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2023-nfl-mock-draft-will-levis-goes-no-1-to-texans-as-part-of-deservedly-hyped-qb-class-with-7-in-round-1/
Any thoughts on Malik Cunningham?
He looks like a 4.3 guy on the field, pretty elusive with the ball. Actually has a better looking arm than Lamar did at that stage for Louisville.
His dad was Randall 🙂 so thats something! Comes from a QB family. Thats always good.
If he has any of his dad’s abilities he will definitely be someone to watch this coming season.
He’s not actually related to Randall. It’s confusing because Google returns an article on Randall Cunningham Jr. for some reason who is actually Randall’s son. This Cunningham’s father is a Michael Cunningham.
Well damn you google, you search his name for highlights and it’s an article that pops up. Making me look like a fool LOL
Don’t feel bad Robbie, I regularly do that all on my own without the “help” of Google.
Interesting they have Rob’s top 4 QBs all gone in the top 7 as well as Will Anderson. Feels like CBS reading SDB early this offseason.
Right? Rob needs to start PW protecting this content
100. Rob start mocking Levis at pick 9 or 10, so in 2-3 months that’s where he’ll be destined to go.
Excellent breakdown Rob, truly appreciate the effort, made it a very informative and fun read.
Interesting discussion by Florio and Simms earlier today about Drew Lock:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmIoZNE0FJI
Here is the follow-on conversation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49rbpWoJHzI
There’s some tinfoil-hat thinking going around, that the other 31 NFL teams are some combination of underwhelmed by Baker and his antics and ticked at the Browns and their antics, particularly in regard to the Watson contract. So they’re not in a massive hurry to help the Browns out of their predicament.
Might not be much tinfoil there my friend. Might be based mostly on truth.
I hope we just say no to the Mayfield. I’d like to see what Drew can do and we already know what Geno is capable of. If we have to ride with Geno or Drew for the year then so be it.
Not at all impressed with the Browns and never have been. Glad I’m not a fan.
How can you not be anything other than impressed with how our FO has handled the Mayfield situation. Everyone’s said he’s destined to be a Seahawk other than who? Oh the Hawk fo. I C U PC/JS, perfect so far. If he’s released and we can get him on a team friendly deal, cool. If not, Lock it is (pls Lock w/Geno as backup).
We should call him The Mayflower.
Because that ship has sailed.
*rimshot*
well played
Will be very interesting where Seattle is in the top 10. If not Levis, they have some decent options. I also hope they grab a Center.
Rob, could you do this same analysis of Centers?
Chris Simms extolling the virtues of Will Levis on his pod today, fwiw. Always an interesting listen, and he has built up some equity when it comes to QB takes.
Not surprised
The tape is the tape
Glad it’s only taken the media until May to start talking about someone we’ve been banging on about for months
Agreed. Was refreshing to hear him echo your sentiment as well concerning Young and Stroud, ie they are likely first round talents but the media narrative is blowing reality out of proportion a bit.
I’m glad someone else has said it
It’s incredible really what the media has done with Stroud and Young. Fans deserve better info
Not a surprise you’re ahead of the national media Rob, par for the course for us in tuned to SDB.
+💯 and this feels like an understatement.
Rob you’ve got the eye. I truly wish the Hawks would at least reach out to you with a consultant role for you. Maybe you watch some select tape they provide for you and/or you provide feedback on guys you feel are worth a deeper look for their scouting department to dive deeper – personal history, psychology, fit, etc.; that they’ve got the resources and manpower to delve deeper with.
When it comes to tape, you hit far more often than miss, at least compared to the average NFL franchise; which has to be the standard to compare against.
Cha, thanks for the blurb on offers to Sherm from Amazon re: opportunities to be involved in their NFL programming in the coming season. It helps to counterbalance the sad news that ET III’s “life-after-football” seems to be unraveling further, with a new felony warrant in his home state.
Saddening to see how 3/4’s of Seattle’s historic LOB have struggled with their transition to the life that follows an NFL career.
Re: Earl…I hate to see a Seahawk legend be reduced to this. Sideline flip off or not, this sucks. Love Earl, hope he gets right. Depressing.
Looking at the projected depth chart on Ourlads (because it’s really about the best you can do this time of year), I think Larry Izzo is in a very powerful position if you are a player trying to make the team this year.
Nick Bellore is still listed as a linebacker. Will Dissly (see what I did there) play fullback and H-Back now that Gerald Everett is gone?
The bottom of the depth chart at WR and DB will be very muddled.
Is L.J. Collier gone?
We can hope
PC has talked about LB Vi Jones out of NC State a few times now. He is an interesting player. USC transfer. Long, lean build ala KJ. Similar testing numbers to Chad Muma. Shuttle in the range they like. 3 cone a little slower than ideal. His tape has some splash plays and some nice special teams plays. Maybe he beats out Burr kirven or Rhattigan at the end of the bench.
QB: Gino Smith, Drew Lock
LT: Charles Cross, Stone Forsythe
LG: Phil Haynes, Jake Curhan
C: Austin Blythe, Shamarious Gilmore
RG: Damien Lewis, Jake Curhan
RT: Abraham Lucas, Stone Forsythe
RB1: Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas
RB2: Kenneth Walker, Travis Homer
HB: Nick Bellore, Will Dissly
TE: Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson
WR1: Tyler Lockett, Dee Eskridge
WR2: DK Metcalf, Dareke Young
DE: Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson
NT: Poona Ford, Al Woods
DT: Shelby Harris, L.J. Collier
LEO: Boye Mafe, Tyreke Smith
SAM: Uchenna Nwosu, Levi Jones
MIKE: Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven
WILL: Jordyn Brooks, Joel Iyiegbuniwe
RCB: Artie Burns, Tariq Woolen
LCB: Sidney Jones, Coby Bryant
NKL: Tre Brown, Marquise Blair
FS: Quandre Diggs, Ugo Amadi
SS: Jamal Adams, Ryan Neal
Can’t shake Fuller at Center I’m afraid. Sheply too. Swain?
48 players shown here. Still have room to add to the roster. I have a hard time thinking Collier makes the 53. I also think Bo Melton will be in play at WR right away. My thoughts as of now is Dareke Young will be a Practice Squad player at first. Still early though, and I think Swain will also make the squad.
Also not included here is Special Teams…
K, P, LS
Swain was the punt returner last year so he probably still has a job.
Unless they want to try out someone like Eskridge, or god forbid give Tyler Lockett some reps there.
I think Coleman is there unless Brown is 100% recovered.
Swain is safe. I see Melton making it.
Jefferson was signed for a reason.
Strange place to put Dissly and Nick is a backup LB, at least he was last year. Probably doesn’t matter where you put him though.
Sure wish Cade Johnson would show something and compete to be on the 53.
Agree with Robbie about Dareke Young and Bo.
What FA would you add to this mix?
One of the many veteran DEs on a cheaper deal?
A center like JC Tretter?
Or, maybe a wildcard like Julio Jones? Not saying its likely or a position of need. But id love to make him and DK teammates and see how that impacts DK. Kinda like AP did with Penny last season.
only included 46 players here.
i think swain, bo, jefferson and another safety (?) make the roster.
looking at this, not sure we add another free agent… just let these guys play.
i do hope they find a good trade partner for an unknown and uncut gem at linebacker (a la coleman trade).
LJ Collier over Quinton Jefferson? Not a chance.
This blows my mind!
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/05/10/report-10-years-375-million-for-tom-brady/
It’s got to be tough to work hard at your industry, spending 20 or 30 years as an announcer, and realize your value is one tenth of what the company will spend on someone who has never announced in their life and who doesn’t need the money.
Allow me to suggest this: Pete would much prefer to succeed without a top-notch QB. He wants to show the world that his Neanderthal philosophies are the winning formula. He is the coach who punted from the opponent’s 37 yard line while trailing in the 4th quarter. My optimism about what appears to be a good draft is tempered by the knowledge that Pete remains in charge.
He’s also the coach everyone hammered for not running on the one yard line
I think an interesting approach, if they would have done it, as it would be totally against the grain and collegial, would have been to move on from the QB every 4-5 years, regardless of if he is a Pro Bowl type.
Allows you to keep the bulk of the team strong, and cash in the QB for assets every handful of seasons.
Would have allowed you to go from Russ to rookie deal Mahomes, Allen or Watson to the next guy and so on and so forth.
Could also see you go from Russ to Daniel Jones
That’s true, Rob, but Jordan’s point is that you keep moving on to a new QB every 4-5 years just like college ball. I totally get his point and yours as well (it’s a crap shoot no matter what). This is how the RB position has shaken out in the past decade and I have a feeling the way the WR position will also start to shake out with all the high dollar contracts these guys will be expecting.
That’s true, Rob, but Jordan’s point is that you keep moving on to a new QB every 4-5 years just like college ball
Isn’t that pretty much what happens anyway when you don’t have a franchise quarterback? Only every 2-3 years would be more like it.
Can’t argue with that point Dingbatman. But if strategically this is your plan then you are still playing the odds and keep moving on to the next guy. They have no choice in college ball.
And as I said in the other reply. That sounds just peachy until the point you gift someone else a franchise QB, don’t replace them with an adequate player, get fired and everyone says what a disaster.
Because this isn’t college football.
Nobody makes you lose an elite player at the most important position
‘Trade Wilson in for Allen or Mahomes’ sounds great until we remember that JS also really liked Andy Dalton. And that countless other QB’s drafted between 2013-18 have been awful.
I don’t agree it’s a crapshoot
We can all watch and analyse these players. That’s what scouting and development is for.
It’s all well and good saying move on every 4-5 years until the point you get a draft class like the last one and the guy you trade away goes and has a glorious 10 year career somewhere else. Then you look really silly.
It’s hard enough to find one franchise QB let alone multiple in decade.
Nobody will ever do this.
Incorrect.
Daniel Jones was the 2019 draft.
That’s well beyond a 4-5 year rotation.
That isn’t the point
The point is that you could end up with someone like that. You can’t just cherry pick great players and ignore all the trash that gets taken early
This is basically what you’re saying:
“Just start trading elite QB’s when you get them and draft another one”
Speak to the teams out there who haven’t been able to find one elite QB in decades about how simple that is
Then ask them about the prospect of finding one and trading him away to play Russian roulette on the decision not getting you fired, ruining your franchise and making someone else elite
A 2023 mock with Levis at #1.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2022-nfl-strength-of-schedule-for-all-32-teams-cowboys-have-it-easiest-rams-facing-toughest-slate/
Hawks going with a different QB out of the state of Kentucky at 26.
Will Anderson going way too late in this one.
Gotta scroll down a bit to find the mock.
Here’s the direct link.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2023-nfl-mock-draft-will-levis-goes-no-1-to-texans-as-part-of-deservedly-hyped-qb-class-with-7-in-round-1/
Is Cam Williams of USC in play?
He’s a true sophomore
Oh man. Jason got some updated information on the AJ Brown deal. The cap style difference between the Eagles and Seahawks just got magnified even more.
First two seasons cap: $13.99m
First three seasons cap: $26.43m
They have two void years in 2027 and 2028 totalling $9.6m
I don’t see how this is much different than the Seahawks contracts. The first year of the AJ Brown deal is his rookie year and the four subsequent years are the extension years where the real new money comes into play. It looks to be structured pretty similar to Jamal Adams contract extension outside of no void years.
First two seasons: $14.11m
Third Season: $18.11m (vs 26.43m for AJ)
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/aj-brown-29087/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jamal-adams-21747/
1-The Adams contract was a departure from the Seahawks’ standard way of operating.
2-Adams contract started with the 5 year of his deal which already had $8m guaranteed. The Eagles started Brown’s deal in his 4th year and he only had $3.896m guaranteed at that point.
3-Adams third year is $18.11m, Brown’s is only $12.4m. That’s what I’m saying. The Eagles really pushed the pain in the contract out.
4-After 3 seasons, the Eagles have $30m of dead money still to handle for Brown. The Seahawks after 3 with Adams? $14m
I guess I don’t get how this is supposed to be a negative take on Seahawks contracts. Most of their contracts have been pretty low in the first year or two with larger cap hits in the later years. They have have used void years on several players such as Dunlap, Carson and I am sure there are others. The only thing they don’t really seem to be doing is aggressively pushing money into future years by restructuring contracts. I guess I would agree that they don’t seem to be taking advantage of the expanding cap in future years which is probably a good thing given the state of the team.
Also, I don’t see where AJ’s third year cap hit is only $12.4m unless Spotrac is wrong?
According to Spotrac, AJ’s dead cap after 3 years is only $15.4m. You have a source for the numbers you are posting?
My biggest gripe with their contracts is signing mediocre players to sizable 1-year deals, Olsen, Blythe, Jockel, etc. I would have rather seen them get 1 or 2 top tier free agents instead of a bunch of 1-year rentals. They are probably thinking that they can recreate the success they had with Bennet and Avril but it really hasn’t worked since them.
https://overthecap.com/player/aj-brown/7842/
Thanks for the link. Yeah, that contract is quite a bit different that what I was looking at on Spotrac (assuming that have the old numbers). That is way more aggressive at pushing dollars into future years compared to the Seahawks. Given the state of the team, I am glad they haven’t been doing this as we we be in worse shape for when/if the team is in a good position to compete.
Will be interesting to see how the structure the DK contract in regards to seeing if they front load it to save money for future years when they will presumably have an answer at QB.
Trevor, if going purely on past performance, Lock could wind up being that frustrating Andy Dalton type. I’m hoping the change of scenery will elevate him. He has the tools. He looks damned good at times. Remember how it seemed when Elway went for him, how it seemed like he was in fact Elway 2.0.
It’s confusing. We are hearing equal nods for both Geno and Lock from the head office.
Rob, I guess based on your extensive QB analysis of late, you are not convinced that either Lock or Geno are the answer!
I’m convinced Geno isn’t
We’ll see with Lock
Wouldn’t mind hearing him on or new WRs (and not really on anything else…)
In a related, very Florida thing here in Pensacola. A guy I ran into randomly at at BBQ joint bragged to me that it waa Doug Baldwin Sr. who arrested him when he went to prison after seeing me in Seahawks gear.
“These receivers are good but wait until the 30 for 30 when me and my former team mates exclusively repeat all the stuff we’ve been complaining about for 10 years already about Wilson/Carroll”
😂🤣😅😬🥱
You know it’s coming………….
Early Merry Christmas .
For a change, we don’t have to worry where is Donald. I was not happy when Russ was traded but there comes Rob with excellent explanation why it is good thing. When I learned how Russ wanted to leave Seattle i had no doubt it was best to trade him before his value is diluted. Rooting for Donald for a change.
https://www.nfl.com/news/broncos-rams-clash-set-for-christmas-day-on-cbs-nickelodeon-simulcast
So you’d prefer to root for a division rival just out spite/dislike for Wilson? A division rival I might add that owns the Seahawks and just won a championship.
No to get higher pick in 2023 draft.
Fair
Hey Rob,
Thinking back to the press conference after Day 1 of the draft. PC said about Cross “he’s a very very good athlete, unusually good athlete”. I heard that when it initially happened and I can’t shake thinking about what PC meant by that. Do they value certain testing more now rather than TEF? Was it just the 40 he is referencing and his overall athleticism rather than the explosive tests?
I can’t justify one metric over another, but I did see talk of the ability for tackles to pull and also bounce into flat and short secondary to set up various run blocks. These types of plays necessitate athletic acceleration, agility, and burst. We saw a glimpse last year with D. Brown pulling from left to to right while the rest of the line was moving left to setup a “power cutback” run play where RB jab steps left before ultimately cutting back to right, against the grain of the rest of the Oline, but with the benefit of a kick out lead blocker coming from the LT spot. I imagine the misdirection along with a giant O-lineman leading the way makes these running plays difficult to read and react to in real time for the defense.
My 2 cents.
No idea
They also took Lucas who is explosive and elite in terms of athleticism across the board
Didn’t he run well?
I think you’re probably right. Perhaps they meant football athleticism rather than testing for traits.
Tom Brady, Wayne Gretzky, Tiger Woods – great athletes, but probably wouldn’t crush a combine.
The combine testing isnt everything either. You can have a bad conbine and still be athletic. Sometimes just have to look at the tape.
“Rocket” is not the word I’d use to describe it.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1524197339853848582
Who the heck uses that wording for that throw?
https://twitter.com/VicTafur/status/1524433627823493122
Tyreek is gonna eat him alive. He doesn’t stand a chance
Maybe it’s the slo-mo in the video, but good lord that thing was wobbly by the end.
Watching broadcast copies of Drew Lock starts is depressing. He seems to throw off balance a lot. His short to intermediate throws are accurate and he can fit passes into tight spaces even on the run, however his deep passing accuracy is awful! He throws everything like he’s trying to fit his passes into tight windows and without arc to allow receivers to run under passes even when they have beaten the coverage cleanly. Can’t imagine he’s going to be a good fit for Carroll’s desire for explosive plays.
Game plan to Drew’s strengths. If his short to intermediate throws are accurate that is a big deal. Many QBs struggle for accuracy to some part of the field. Russ was great deep but couldn’t hit the intermediate middle to save his life. With the inexperience of our OL Pete will rely heavily on the running game & quicker developing passing plays. I’d like to see the TEs become more of a factor in the offense.
If he can ‘point guard’ he can run Pete’s preferred offense. Can he though? I’ll keep my expectations very low & just enjoy this season for what it is.
He seems to love throwing to tight ends and does it extremely well. He and Fant had a great chemistry. Fant looks like a stud in the games I’ve watched with his speed showing up consistently.
That’s why it is nice that we also got Fant in the trade. So far I think we did ok in this trade. Time will tell, but it still feels like a good trade.
The throwing off balance without any kind of base stands out like a sore thumb and is a real issue that must be fixed
Rob Rang on The Locked on Sports podcast just referred to Tariq Woolen as “sushi raw.”
Wouldn’t that be an oxymoron?
I think “raw sushi” would be an oxymoron as sushi definitionally is raw but “sushi raw” would not be as it suggests a specific degree of raw
No oxymoron here. “Raw sushi” would be redundant, not oxymoronic. But “sushi raw” is a nice turn of phrase, actually, assuming “raw” can have degrees….
…assuming Rang meant sashimi, and not sushi…which is my guess…
I think Woolen will just be Obi Melifonwu 2.0
Out of the league in 2 years, 3 if he’s lucky. At least we didn’t spend a 2nd rounder on him. PCJS killed it in this draft but their decision to take Woolen over McCollum is blah. They just had to have that one pick where they just couldn’t help themselves.
If you want to be pedantic about it, he is not entirely inaccurate. Sushi is not necessarily raw or even have seafood in it. Sashimi would be a better description.
Hey Rob,
Went back and looked at Lance Zierlein’s profile of Tyreke Smith and noticed that he said this:
“Banged around by Daniel Faalele in Minnesota game.”
So, okay, I was at the day 2 Senior Bowl practice when Boye Mafe completely embarrassed everyone, but I don’t remember Smith getting stoned by The Manatee. Everyone remembers him kicking Trevor Penning’s ass.
What is your take?
Of course, I didn’t watch it on television or record it because I wanted a real perspective. And I saw nothing of day 3.
Well Lance is referring to Ohio State vs Minnesota not the Senior Bowl. I haven’t watched Smith in that matchup.
seahawks schedule “leaks” week 5 at NO, week 8 giants at Seattle, and last Mon night game here against Denver, that’s all I have found
“last Mon. night game” means what, week 16 then?
that would be my guess, but I thought nfl was keeping those games divisional
looks like that was just a rumor, sea-den game
Week 1: Sea v Den
Yeah, I’ll take that,
Shelby Harris chases down and snaps RW’s ACL in week one. You heard it here first.
Too far mate. Too far…
Yep, way too far, I NEVER wish for an injury for ANY player. I despise the Cowpukes to the core of my being, but felt absolutely terrible for Dak season before last with that nasty injury.
What makes you think I wish for an injury? That’s a weird leap to make. Just a prediction.
Can I ask you to keep those kind of ‘predictions’ to yourself in future
It’s just not the kind of thing I want on here
…….
Wow.
…….
Looking forward to next year. New college talk. But there is nothing I am looking forward to more than the hopeful end of the “i hate wilson, he sucks, and yet I still have a weird axe to grind,” crowd. Jeebus cripes some of these posts are like Wilson broke up some of y’alls parents marriages.
💯 Peter
Right on. Besides, breaking up marriages is Golden Tate’s job 😈
week 9 at arizona
week 2, sea at 49er
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/5/12/23067700/seahawks-qb-battle-drew-lock-geno-smith-pete-carroll
Good article on Seattle’s QB situation and the future of the team. I would disagree with the conclusion that this season could be a referendum on Pete and John’s future. Anything better than an Urban Meyer style implosion would probably keep them around.
Exactly. The measured approach and big picture draft are indicative of a couple more years worth of job security.
If you’re Jodi Allen you don’t sign off an a Russell Wilson trade if you’re open to firing PCJS based upon the outcome of the 2022 season. The Ws and Ls are largely inconsequential this season; unless we’re shocked with way more Ws than anticipated.
If they were on the hot seat for 2022 they would have done something reactionary and dumb like trade for Ryan or Watson, or reach for Pickett.
Yeah I don’t see any way this is a referendum on PCJS
They’ll be around til the end of their contracts. Schneider could be here longer if he hits on the right QB before then. I do think Carroll will retire when his is up but you never know………
Broncos at Seattle MNF week 1?
Actually pretty excited if we get the broncos week 1. Rookie coaches are notoriously bad their first game. I dont want to win much next year, but it would be so sweat to beat Russ
Weird
Is it weird for a Sheriff’s department to state that he’s innocent until proven guilty? Like yeah we all know that, but isn’t your job to arrest people you think ARE guilty?
Recreational cannibis is legal in Colorado.
Haha, so this is the kind of thing we overpaid Will Dissly to do?
https://mobile.twitter.com/Seahawks/status/1524841953413632005
Thought Levis people might enjoy J.T. O’Sullivan’s QB School breakdown on your favorite UK prospect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mEYf4kNI7s
https://twitter.com/ChuckArnoldSEA/status/1524905920135720960
Schedule release
I could see us starting 2-1, perhaps even 3-1.
As it stands right now it looks favorable up to Week 9. But it’s how the teams are performing at that particular time of the match up that counts.
But yes, a good start is possible 🙂
Since it’s really slow here I thought I would give you all an update on my cousin’s kid.
On Sunday, center fielder Sierra Sacco led the Louisiana Tech softball team in a 7th inning rally to defeat Southern Miss and win the Conference USA regular season championship. She went 3 for 3 with two walk to raise her batting average to .430 ranking her 20th in the NCAA Division I.
Also, today the 2022 Schutt Sports/NFCA Division I Freshman of Year finalists were trimmed down from 25 to 10. Sierra is among the 10 finalists.
Only Tatum Kresley of UMES, at .444, has a better batting average among freshman with 8 fewer plate appearances. Sierra’s 179 at bats leads the nation and she missed the Conference USA record for hits in a single season by two with 77.
UPDATE: La Tech just curb stomped Marshall in the opening round of Conference USA Championship Tournament. Winning in five innings by mercy rule 16-8.
Sierra went Sacco 3 for 3 scoring 4 runs with 2 batted in. She stole 3 of the Techsters 7 bases.
Fortuitous schedule for Rob this year, only 2 games in prime time in the States, the first game on Monday night and the Thursday night game December. No Sunday night games at all.
Pro: Rob gets to enjoy a “normal,” life during the football season.
Con: Seattle is recognized as thoroughly mediocre.
As long as it’s not boring I’m good.
That was what I was insinuating Peter. And btw, we may wish for mediocre by like week 16. I am happy for Rob tho, honest.
Excellent 🙂
Nosebleed seats for Russ Revenge Game: $365
Nosebleed seats for Week 3 vs the scintillating Atlanta Falcons: $103
4-13 season
If the Seahawks don’t run the table, 17-0, complete and utter domination, I will run off with Margot Robbie and make mad passionate love to her every day for the rest of my life.
Oh the sacrifice!
Win Forever.
The first five games, especially Weeks 3-5, will be telling on how the season will go. The schedule is close to the tale of two halves, and I don’t have the faith now for a strong second half of the season.
As of today, I would guess 5-12 or 6-11. I think home games vs. CAR, ATL, and NYJ look good, plus 2-3 others as coin flips or upsets.
If Geno is QB he will find a way to get L. Will eager to see OL and run game.
I’m at 5-12 tho that contract for Will Dissly has given me some serious confidence for the offense.
And after seeing that scheduling video, it’s clear he will be worth 2 wins alone.
You boys are going to dog Uncle Will for the next 3 years, poor guy. 😉
Not as bad as I’m gonna dog PCJS for giving him the contract. In reality, the player will always get the best deal he can for himself and he did very well. Can’t blame him. Can question the level of expenditure by the team though. But if he catches 55 for 850, I’ll be the first to say PCJS were prescient and a bunch of us were wrong in questioning the outlay for him. Always admit to being wrong and it’s especially easy when it’s beneficial to the team.
But if he did go 55 for 850, the knives would probably be put for PCJS as to why they needed to trade for Fant.
And therein lies the rub.
Already looking forward to next year’s draft. Just the 1st 3 rounds at the PFN mock draft simulator.
QB, then all trenches. We’ll get lb, dbs, rb, etc. on day 3. Pick 26 and after are among the highest rated at those picks. Levis is still rated #65 overall somehow.
SEA
9.Will Levis
QB Kentucky
SEA
26.Paris Johnson Jr.
OG Ohio State
SEA
41.Olusegun Oluwatimi
OC Michigan
SEA
58.Siaki Ika
DT Baylor
SEA
73.Zion Tupuola-Fetui
EDGE Washington
Oh sweet! Didn’t realize it was already available.
15 Myles Murphy , Edge, Clemson
26 Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
41 Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
47 Trenton Simpson, LB , Clemson
58 Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
73 Joey Porter JR, CB, Penn State
Would have liked to have addressed interior oline at some point, but ultimately the defensive players and upside of the QBs was too attractive.
Bradley. Love your draft. Sign me up.
Long time reader, rare poster here. I don’t want to bring up old news or anything but did anyone hear what happened to Jermaine Johnson? Specifically why did he fall to the end of the first? Did the community here really miss something or was the talk about character concerns real? I’m pretty happy with how the draft panned out and hope Mafe can be the game wrecker, but Johnson just looked like a bad man.
Nobody knows
The Jets were supposedly going to take him at 10 if Wilson was gone
It’s never been revealed what the situation was fully
Watched two more Miami games recently
Tyler Van Dyke is the real deal
He could push to be #1 overall
Let’s hope Cristobal lets him cook and doesn’t hold him back.
That’s great, should have more than good QB options available for hawks next year. No one know where Hawks and Denver is going pick next year. Hope Seahawks continue their draft form for next year.
Im fine with giving up both 1’s and 2’s to get Levis or Van Dyke if we have to. Getting a franchise qb will be huge next year. Im stoked
Las Vegas has the Hawks the “favorite ” in only 4 games on the schedule. That should get us in a good draft slot for either Levis or Van Dyke
Happy: “Las Vegas has the Hawks the “favorite ” in only 4 games on the schedule. That should get us in a good draft slot for either Levis or Van Dyke” Just curious. Will you be rooting for the Seahawks to lose?
My take on that would be that we all want them to win every game. But if they aren’t, look for the positive that it might be good for the team’s future.
No i will not root for them to lose. It is the ugly and inevitable side of the rebuild when you lose All Pros: Wilson, Wagner, and Duane Brown and you have 10 games against the AFC West and the NFC West. Vegas knows they are not going to just “run it back” again.
To get a chance at one of the prospective franchise QBs, it would help plenty if a couple of teams that finish higher in the draft order than the Hawks don’t need a QB (looking at you Jax. Jets, et.al.) Besides rooting for Denver to lose games, be rooting for those kind of teams to do so as well.
If Z. Wilson has a terrible season, i doubt the Jets would pass up on a consensus top QB prospect.
RE: QB-Tyler Van Dyke, Miami.
Watching his tape, I see a lot to like with Van Dyke, especially his + arm strength, *long ball trajectory* & *long ball placement* seem to be special. The only negatives I see with him is (1) Only one year as a starting QB (will be 2 by draft) & that could be construed as an experience negative. (2) Not a big time mobile QB, but at least adequate as a runner & in avoidance of sacks. (3) May need some technical refinement of his footwork and release. Also, I noted that he seldom, if ever, lines up under center, which is getting to be pretty common in college ball, how much of an obstacle that may be, IDK, it seems that it is something that could be coached up.
**** At the very least, having 2 QB’s on the radar (along with Levis) is a positive that they can draft a good QB next year, that’s a 100% increase in probability. I like the odds of finding “their guy” at QB a lot better with 2 to choose from ****
Rob, we be awesome to get your position-by-position assessment post draft. For example…
QB: Lock
Pro: great arm strength, accuracy, field vision
Con: maturity, mobility, hasn’t shown growth
Depth: Smith understands the system, viable backup during transition
Future: No. 1 priority in 2023 draft (Van Dyke, Levis, etc)
RB: Penny
Pro: great size, speed and bla bla bla…
Con: health, field vision, contract year, etc
Depth: Very excited about Walker’s A++ potential with Barry Sanders-like potential
RB2: Homer…
LT:
LG:
…
…
WR1: Lockett
WR2: Metcalf
…
OLB:
DE:
NT:
…
Just a thought as this could be a fun exercise during this downtime, and I would ABSOLUTELY DROOL OVER THIS!!
I’m pretty sure that “downtime” for Rob means a well earned vacation and spending time with his family.
Now that the schedule is out, how many of those games do you think the Seahawks will win? I’m saying 8 wins 9 losses. Optimistic?
It’s a shame to see what Earl Thomas has done with his life. He’s one of the greatest Seahawks of all time, but his actions have reduced his name to mud. Such a shame, and I hope he gets his life and his mind sorted out.
I hate seeing young people who have a secure life and future and life ahead of them just throw it all away like that.
So true, was reading the article regarding his arrest. Right around 2018-2019 he went to Dallas locker room, and made unfriendly gesture and things went bad to worst. Hope other player can learn a lesson.
One time there were so many star players but Earl was my fav.