Updated 2013 mock draft: 17th October

October 17th, 2012 | Written by Rob Staton

The more I look into this draft class, the more I feel like I underestimated it. There’s maybe a lesson to be learnt there. Prospects have emerged, as they always do. But the blossoming strength of this draft comes in its depth. It’s not top heavy, in fact I think it’s going to be one of those years where there’s not a great deal of difference between the #1 pick and the #25 pick.

From Seattle’s perspective, I tried to look for value.¬†Draft order was determined by current win/loss records and opponents strength of schedule. To see the order in full, click here. This put the Seahawks at #20 overall. It’s not taken a huge dose of creativity to make the choice below, but I feel like this was a good match of prospective need and talent.

#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
If the Chiefs pick first overall, they need to draft a quarterback. Barkley’s a good fit to manage that offense.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
Holmgren is out and others may follow. If that’s the case, will they stick by 29-year-old Brandon Weeden?
#3 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback prospect. He can cover, he can play run support, he’s a ball hawk and has elite recovery speed.
#4 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Lotulelei has a ton of upside but needs to become more consistent.
#5 Jarvis Jones (DE/LB, Georgia)
Whether he plays end or linebacker, Jones is an explosive athlete who will get to the quarterback.
#6 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Redshirt sophomore with unlimited potential. If he declares, he could go this early.
#7 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Richardson’s had a big impact this year and will be a riser. Lives in the backfield.
#8 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
He’s been explosive this year and is rising into top-10 contention.
#9 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts are transitioning to a 3-4 defense and need to find some building blocks.
#10 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Brilliant interior lineman. A top-15 shoe-in. Could go earlier than this.
#11 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He’ll work best in the 3-4 and Dallas needs to bolster its defensive line. They can’t just rely on DeMarcus Ware.
#12 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
He’s 6-7 and around 250lbs. If he tests well at the combine, who knows where he’ll go?
#13 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Incredible physical potential with off-field concerns. Cincy probably won’t be put off by those kind of red flags.
#14 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Not the same kind of athlete as Luke Kuechly, but he’s a better linebacker. The heart and soul of unbeaten Notre Dame.
#15 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
He’d be better off adding the weight he lost during the summer. He could be a J.J. Watt clone.
#16 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Flashy safety prospect making a big impression for the Gators this year.
#17 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Athletic guard who shows well in pass protection. He’s only a notch below Warmack. Excellent player.
#18 Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina)
He’s bounced back from a serious knee injury and looks back to his best. Great character, too.
#19 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
By rule one of the offensive tackles in this class will be a first round pick. Lewan might be the best of a mediocre group.
#20 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
Value pick adding another dynamic playmaker to the offense.
#21 Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
Big, physical corner and a leader on the Mississippi State defense.
#22 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
He could go higher than this but he’s frustratingly inconsistent. Major potential, but can he deliver?
#23 Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
Outside pass rusher who fits well into Rex Ryan’s scheme.
#24 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Competitive safety prospect. New England needs to work on that secondary.
#25 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
Underrated defensive tackle who will only last this long due to age. He’s approaching his mid-20′s.
#26 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Just a fantastic playmaker at linebacker. He’ll have an immediate impact in the NFL.
#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
Not the flashiest player but nobody shows more effort. He looks like an ideal fit for San Francisco’s defense.
#28 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
Do they go offensive tackle here? Or quarterback? They need both.
#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
He could play tackle or guard. Moved inside this year but has the athleticism to play the edge.
#30 Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
Baltimore always make good choices and Montgomery would add another piece to their pass rush.
#31 Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
He’s 6-8, 260lbs and averaging 20 yards per catch. It’s not hard to work out why he might be a first round pick.
#32 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
He’d be a nice little addition to that offense, playing in the slot with Jones and White outside.

Notes:

- This isn’t a great draft for offensive tackles, which is why only Taylor Lewan goes in the first round. It’s a premium position and guys like Brennan Williams and Luke Joeckel could easily find themselves cracking the top-25 as a consequence. However, I wanted to represent the weakness at the position at this early stage in the process.

- Two highly vaunted receivers are absent – Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen. Hunter just doesn’t look dynamic this year and doubts persist about how he’s recovered from a serious knee injury. He’s not standing out in a pass-happy offense and team mate Cordarrelle Patterson is the player catching the eye. Allen just isn’t doing it for me – he’s big but lacks deep speed and doesn’t look like a particularly dominating receiver in the making. Both have second round grades at the moment and will need a big performance at the combine. Speaking of Patterson – he has the talent to be a clear first round pick. He’s a home run hitter. He’s also had some big mental errors this year and teams will be left wondering if he’s really worth the risk.

- Defensive tackles Kawann Short and Jesse Williams miss out this time, but could easily have gone in the back end of round one.

35 Responses to “Updated 2013 mock draft: 17th October”

  1. MJ says:

    Good stuff Rob. Not sure we will ever see eye to eye on Woods. Love him in round 2. Despise him in round 1. Seems rather petty of me, but I just don’t see a difference maker in him. He’s safe, but I don’t think he adds anything new to the fold (that takes the offense to another level). I still think a R1 pick needs to be more than what he offers. Just my opinion good sir.

    • Rob Staton says:

      All opinions appreciated and welcome, MJ.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      I think what we need is a consistent receiver.

      • Mtjhoyas says:

        I agree, but I don’t think you spend a 1st round pick on a consistent WR who is probably going to be an ok #2. I think you can easily find that in Round 2. That’s my only thing against Woods. I don’t see him ever developing into more than a decent #2 WR, and that would be dependent on how good the #1 WR lined up on the other side of him.

        It’s not really a knock on Woods, but I just don’t see a guy who can consistently win on the outside in the NFL. Everytime I see DBs get hands on him at the LOS now, he has a tough time disengaging. Probably strictly just a slot guy and we have Baldwin and Tate (who I think should be a slot guy).

  2. Colin says:

    Thoughts on Marquise Lee? Surprised to not see him here.

  3. Jeff says:

    Rob,
    Have you considered putting together a prioritized list of team needs? It seems like there are several question marks heading into next year. DT with Branch and J Jones both free agents, WR/TE with Rice and Miller’s cap number ballooning, WLB with Leroy getting a year older, Leon Washington is also getting up there. It seems like the front office will have a number of tough decisions to make and those decisions will obviously impact the draft strategy. Even if its not a com

  4. Jeff says:

    Damn phone….
    Even if its not a complete list I’d like to hear your take on positions of interest for next year.

  5. Brandon says:

    This is a great DT class, but do you think Seattle will look that direction? Jason Jones is on a “prove it” contract but appears to be unequivocably proving it, and they also have a promising project in Jaye Howard. Seattle’s drafting may be unconventional, but one thing they’ve never done is used a first-rounder on a position where they already had a lot of options.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I’ve gone receiver here… but I could see a DT, sure. Jones would still have to sign the contract and he may prove too expensive if he has a market. In that instance, and with a strong DT class, it could make financial sense to look at the position in round one.

    • Attyla the Hawk says:

      Brandon Mebane and Earl Thomas are two unique players without whom we’d have to change the defense significantly.

      I can see us looking to ensure that doesn’t happen. In the case of Mebane, you’re also talking about a guy in his prime. So looking forward, a DT that can bring similar quality would hedge against injury as well as provide continuity of a primary asset.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Gregg Scruggs has impressed me much more than Howard and Howard is a 1-tech playing more behind Mebane than a 3-tech.

  6. John says:

    I just have a hard time see Carroll draft Woods. I know we have a need at receiver and I know Seattle seems draft need in the early rounds, but Woods just doesn’t seem like a Carroll-esk pick. Carroll is all about unique attributes. And I think Woods is just meh from a physical standpoint. Not great size, not particularly physical. He may have a Percy Harvin-esk role in the NFL, but I just have a hard time seeing Carroll go there. The Coleman pick made sense because of that, but Woods doesn’t quite fit the bill. Add to the fact that Carroll has been incredibly distant from his USC prospects that I can’t see it.

    That’s no beef with you Rob, just playing devil’s advocate :P I really think Seattle is going to be looking for physical freak at WR. Tate is playing better this year, but I still don’t think he is a true starter at split end. And I think Carroll will look there if he goes WR.

    • John says:

      seeing*

      • Darik says:

        I can totally see Woods as a Carroll pick. Pete is always talking about he wants playmakers or “touchdown makers” and that is why he went with Golden Tate despite no elite physical qualities. If you watch the tape on Woods, he plays a lot like Tate. Both have good hands and are well above average after the catch and are used frequently on screens because of that. Both have solid speed and can jump for balls. I would say Woods’ ability to accelerate and go to top speed in so little time is underrated. I think Woods has a bit more of a receiver build in that he is a bit taller and longer and he runs really good routes. He definitely lacks physicality but looks like he could line up in a bunch of different areas with his skill set including slot because of his route running and being able to find holes in the zone. Point being that he looks like a rich man’s Golden Tate. Whether they would hesitate to take a player that similar to one they already have would the main reason I would see them avoiding him in the first.

        • John says:

          I’d disagree a bit there. I think Tate’s physicality is what interested Carroll. I think Woods lack there of will bother him. We aren’t a finesse team. Woods feels like a finesse player.

          And I like Tate more than Woods. I was stoked when Seattle drafted him out of ND. Woods’ lack of physicality really really concerns me.

          • Kenny Sloth says:

            That’s just it. We DON’T have that finesse consistent player who will get lots of first downs and keep drives alive. We have deep threats and players who will go up and snatch the ball away, but no Wes Welker.

            • Michael says:

              how about we just sign Wes Welker then? Seriously though? If he does in fact hit the market, the Hawks could dump Zach Miller to free up the money, and draft Toilolo to be our version of Jimmy Graham (or at least a poor man’s version). That would revamp the passing attack pretty darn quick wouldn’t you say?

              Thoughts?

              • mjkleko says:

                While I have a hard time seeing Welker as a legitimate target by this team, unless of course his value falls into the bargain-bin category, based on the procession of elder-statesmen-wideouts JS/PC brought in during training, free agency is going to be thoroughly scoured at the position.

                Overall, the wide receiver free-agent class is one of the better ones in recent memory, with Wallace, Bowe, Cruz (RFA), and Jennings highlighting the group. I would be hard pressed to see Greg come to Seattle for any price, especially after that MNF game (Browner & him don’t play nice), but the FA would probably love to have Bowe, big receiver that possesses a good ability to move the chains, but can also stretch the field a bit and comes from a play-action heavy offense.

                My belief is that JS/PC are not eager to add a rookie wideout with their most valuable chip, despite being in the position to bang the “surround Wilson with talent” drum now that the young QB has shown some of that preseason swag. I’d approach the position keying on value in the 2nd and 3rd much like the patience they showed in getting Wagner last draft.

                Despite being hoodwinked by Pete into thinking we need more fast, strong, crazy big defensive players, because, omg defense is soooo awesome, I could see this team keying in on skill position players early. If the team finds itself picking in the 20′s and Lattimore gets to them, it would be tough to pass up on similar to New Orleans with Ingram. With the o-line becoming real good at effective run-blocking, that backfield trio would be incredible.

                • mjkleko says:

                  Although allow me to condition all of this by saying I think if the right DT makes it to the ‘Hawks they have to pull the trigger just because of how the position might look in a year if neither Jones or Branch are resigned.

                  At some point being a part of this defense has to become an attractive part of coming to Seattle and I have a sneaking suspicion Branch understands that his ability and play are being maximized by Pete in this system. After flaming out in Arizona, one has to wonder if starting over in a new defense is something that Branch would be excited to do.

                  Quick question; can Jones be resigned to a new contract at some point in season, or does his 1-year contract prevent the team from signing him to a new deal so quickly? Not that I think this is plausible, I’m more just curious.

  7. Attyla the Hawk says:

    It’s so difficult to forecast Seahawk selections. Namely because they are so intentionally fluid. Also, I might offer that this season is going to be markedly different. I’m not sure the draft will follow the same need based template that made at least what position they were going for — somewhat predictable.

    If we’re drafting late in the round, I don’t see us taking a less than impressive wideout over say an impressive TE prospect, or a great CB with the rare size and quality that our secondary demands. Being in a position to reload in that unit is going to be extremely difficult. Particularly once teams begin the copy cat process to acquire the same talents we will have made universally desired.

    I think this year we are going to see a shift to selecting quality talent, rather than for specific need. Particularly if Wilson continues to grow and our WR productivity rises. For a team that runs first and defends second, the intrinsic value of having a great WR is lessened. But just as importantly, the likelihood of a late round 1 WR talent being great is incredibly risky. I get the sense that if this FO isn’t going to reach for a QB it doesn’t believe in, then it sure wouldn’t do so with a WR. One of the principles of the Green Bay draft model is to take WR often. Just not early. Schneider might have been one that didn’t see eye to eye on that. But it’s worked out for GB and John seems to like to emulate what worked in his prior gig.

    If you go into the draft thinking that we will want to expire/get out from under either Rice’s or Miller’s contract for cap health — then the Toilolo pick makes perfect sense. He clearly has some special qualities which we know drive Pete and John’s selection methodology. In particular, his size and athleticism would be highly coveted by a team that may otherwise struggle to score 7s inside the red zone. Toilolo is a talent tailored for that purpose.

    In that scenario, I can see replacing Miller with Toilolo being a much better option than replacing Rice with Woods. This FO has been exceptional at forecasting future roster needs. The list of UFAs for 2014 is filled with current cornerstone talents. As is 2015. Getting the cap prepared to retain that talent is going to be a consideration. Miller and Rice’s deals constitute about 15% of the total cap spend.

    It’ll be the most interesting draft for this FO in my opinion. Now that it looks like we are moving away from rebuilding, and moving towards reloading. How the final phase of the Win Forever life cycle plays out will be interesting going forward. I get the sense that if we’re not looking at QB by next draft, then that’s pretty much where we are with this team.

    • Michael says:

      Great points Attyla. I could really see them dumping Miller for cap space this off-season, and getting Wilson a legit go-to-guy in the redzone would be huge, so Toilolo would make a lot of sense to me.

  8. Stuart says:

    This is great to get this information from you Rob, thank you! Really insightful comments from everybody on here today, as usual. I agree with Attyla the Hawk regarding Rice v Miller. As a sidenote after reading Rob’s mock I looked at a few others today for fun/comparison. WR Brandon Coleman is not on anybodys radar yet. Nobody had him in their 3 round mocks…

    If he was available, easily my choice and if not, my next options is the best TE in the draft. Round 2/3 would be OLB/OL or OL/OLB. Who knows but it’s sure fun thinking about it. Love this! And tomorrow the BIG game at San Fran. The spread is up to -7.5, lets go SEAHAWKS!

    • Rob Staton says:

      Man it’d be great to beat the Niners tomorrow…

    • Colin says:

      The Niners as a 7.5 point favorite is a JOKE. I feel pretty good that we are going to win this game.

      • Kenny Sloth says:

        You shouldn’t. They are playing CRAZY football. I thought we’d lose to the Patriots, though, but that was at home. I don’t think we’ll make it out of Candlestick with a W.

        • Colin says:

          IDK man…. they are not the brick wall they were last year. They can be pushed around this year.

          • Michael says:

            I think we have a great chance to beat the niners. Looks like Joe Staley will be out which should make things easier for Clem/Bruce to do their thing. As long as we can bottle up Frank Gore and force Alex Smith to throw down field into the jaws of the secondary we should be able to win (or at least break even) in the turnover battle.

            The most interesting/frightening thing for me will be watching how the Niners respond after that ass kicking suffered at the hand of the Giants. All of the things they normally do well (stopping the run, not turning the ball over…) failed them last week. Always glad to see San Fran lose, but part of me wishes they were coming off a win, becuase I don’t like the idea of them sitting down and really rededicating themselves to the formula that took them to 13 wins last year. I would rather face any teams post-victory hubris than their post-loss rage.

            • Nolan Thomas says:

              I hope the Hawks win but it will be tough for them because they are coming off a really emotional win, playing on the road and a short week. This feels like the Rams game after the Monday night game against the Packers, only the week is shorter and the opponet better. A win would be huge, but the combination of what I have mentioned previously and the 49ers coming off a real beating seems to point to the 49ers favor. Here is hoping that nothing i just said matters though GO HAWKS

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      No DT for you in the first 3?

  9. Meatwad says:

    Someone on the Offensive side of the ball should be the target in round 1. I know Barkley is never going to happen but a playmaker is needed. The offense really lacks a true #1. With Rice and Miller’s contracts so large next season I can see the FO keeping one of them. I think Miller may bring more value just because the Line is still average and he will be needed.
    I like Wilson and would love to see him succeed, but I have doubts, especially after last night. Granted, four HUGE dropped passes are not on him. I would love to see the team with Barkely and Wilson…