It’s still early days but we’ll keep monitoring this list as the season continues. Some names I’ve left out due to Seattle’s current 4-2 record – hopefully the team isn’t going to be picking in the top 10-12 again in 2013. I’m going to do an updated mock draft tomorrow so keep an eye out for that.
Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Draft range: Physically he’s a top-15 talent but off-field concerns could seriously hamper his stock
Drafting another linebacker early would be considered a bit of a luxury. Yes, the Seahawks will eventually look to upgrade the position currently occupied by Leroy Hill. But this is a unit playing at a high level already without top-end first round investments. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have also managed to find starters in rounds two (Bobby Wagner) and four (K.J. Wright) so a first round pick to replace Hill doesn’t seem like an obvious necessity. It’s still hard to ignore a guy like Alec Ogletree. He’s a former safety who moved to linebacker and it shows on the field – he’s an incredible athlete. Whether it’s running sideline-to-sideline, working in coverage or acting as a pass rusher, it’s hard to find any faults within Ogletree’s game. And it’s that final point – as a pass rusher – that would interest Seattle the most. He has limitless potential in that area and could bring yet another dimension to Seattle’s defense. As good as Wagner and Wright are, Ogletree would add something different – that ability to bring an extra rusher without needing to take Red Bryant out of the game. There are some concerns in the form of multiple suspensions and cases off-field indiscipline. Even so, Seattle has been prepared to take on similar projects and nobody can deny that on the field, Ogletree is a hard-working leader.
Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
Draft range: He’s a solid top-25 pick
Right off the bat, he’s an aggressive 6-2 corner who plays great in run support. That alone probably puts him on Seattle’s radar. But a play against Tennessee at the weekend kind of stood out – Banks tackled a running back on a pitch, stripped the ball and pounced on the fumble. It was an exact copy of Brandon Browner’s play against the Panthers in week five. Throw in the fact he has three interceptions this year and comes across as the vocal leader of the defense at Mississippi State, and you can see why he appears to fit the bill. Like Seattle’s two current starting corners, Banks doesn’t have lightning speed in coverage and relies on a physical approach to jab and stunt the receiver at the line. The Seahawks made fine starters out of Sherman and Browner with the same skill set and Banks could make for an exciting trio. The big question is whether he’s capable of playing nickel and bandit packages before eventually replacing Browner opposite Sherman. I’m not totally convinced he’s suited to that role at 6-2/185lbs and any corner drafted in round one in 2013 would probably need to upgrade the teams slot coverage.
Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Draft range: He has the talent to be a top-10 selection but Demaryius Thomas – another physically imposing receiver – lasted into the 20’s
The sky’s the limit for this guy. He’s around 6-6 and 220lbs with an ideal frame, downfield speed and he’s a hands catcher. What more could you want from a receiver? Size, speed, hands, route running – no wide out has had this much upside since Calvin Johnson and Coleman could be a superstar in the making. He’s only a redshirt sophomore and may not choose to declare, but if he does he instantly becomes the #1 receiver in next years draft. The Seahawks will have to make a decision on the big contracts of Sidney Rice and Zach Miller in the off-season and it could create an opening for a big-bodied playmaker. Even if Rice sticks, the Seahawks cannot pass up the chance to add this kind of weapon to the offense. If Russell Wilson proves he’s worthy of the starting role for the long term, they have to try and make his life as easy as possible. What better way than drafting a 6-6 receiver that does it all? I’ve not been this excited about a prospect in a long time. Exciting player who could end up being a dominant force at the next level.
Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Draft range: Definite top-15 potential
Jason Jones and Alan Branch are both free agents in the off-season and this could open up a need at defensive tackle. Working out exactly what the Seahawks would look for from the position is the hard part. Currently, 6-6/325lbs Branch is starting in what is considered to be the ‘3-technique’ position, but his value comes mainly in run support. Jones acts as a more orthodox 3-tech as a pass rush specialist. They may wish to continue utilising a bigger man at tackle on base defense and this would bring the likes of Jonathan Jenkins, Johnathan Hankins and Sylvester Williams into play. However, if you’re spending a first round pick on a DT who isn’t playing nose tackle, you really want them to add a serious pass rushing threat. Williams and Sheldon Richardson are the two best pass rushing DT’s not named Star Lotulelei. Richardson gave Alabama’s offensive line a work out on Saturday, despite little help from the rest of the Missouri defensive line. He has similar size to Jones but is more of a pure three technique with an exceptionally high motor. The most interesting part about Saturday’s game was the way Richardson had visibly developed a leadership role within the team. He was the heart and soul of everything.
Robert Woods (WR, USC)
Draft range: Second half of the first round – maybe later due to his size
It’s hard to get away from this guy, in the same way it’ll always be hard to get away from Matt Barkley (although if Wilson keeps playing like he did against New England, it’ll soon be ‘Matt who?’). Woods is a former Pete Carroll recruit and could interest his former coach if the Seahawks do end up targeting a receiver next April. The issue with Woods will always be size – he’s just over 6-0 and around 190lbs. Despite showing a lot of playmaking qualities at USC, he’s not going to be great against press-man and he’s not going to be much of a red-zone threat. What he might be, however, is a slightly more athletic version of Wes Welker. It’s clear the Seahawks have some admiration for the way Bill Belichick has set up New England’s offense and they may target a similar safety valve for Russell Wilson. Doug Baldwin could still prove to be that guy, but considering he’s a former UDFA there’s really nothing to stop the Seahawks having both players on the roster. After all – Pete likes competition. If the Seahawks pick later in round one and if Woods drops, this could be an easy decision. The one thing working against it – Carroll has been tough on his former USC guys in the past and so far has avoided them early in the draft. A.J. Jenkins – a receiver with similar size/skill set to Woods – was drafted 30th overall by San Francisco this year.
Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
Draft range: He probably won’t get out of round two and could sneak into the late first
Let’s consider the possibility that Seattle is picking quite late in the first. It’s not a totally ridiculous suggestion after a 4-2 start including victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Most of the top positional players will be off the board and the Seahawks would be left looking for value within players that fit mentally and physically into Pete Carroll’s vision. Jesse Williams could force his way into the bottom end of the first round with the 2013 defensive tackle class being among the strongest we’ve seen in years. Star Lotulelei, Sylvester Williams, Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Jenkins, Johnathan Hankins and Kawann Short are all prospective top-25 picks – and if they go early it’ll open the door for players like Williams depending on team needs later in the first. This is the second year Williams has anchored the Alabama defensive line with his forte being run defense. He’d fit into the Alan Branch role perfectly as a 6-3, 320lbs partner to Brandon Mebane. Williams is a disruptive player who frequently gets into the backfield even if the stats don’t show evidence of this. He plays like a former Australian rugby player (if you know rugby, you’ll understand) and fits into the character of this defense perfectly. Oh yeah, he also acts as a full back in the red zone.
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Draft range: Anywhere from the top-15 to the second or third round
I’m struggling to picture Cordarrelle Patterson ever developing into a consistent #1 target in the NFL. He’s going to be a cheap-points scorer, a guy capable of making highlight-reel plays any time he has the ball. He’ll also make mental mistakes and have patches where he’s completely ineffective. Is he a true difference maker, can you rely on him? So far this year we’ve seen 100 yard kick off returns, big runs of 70-80 yards on reverse plays and downfield catching on deep throws from Tyler Bray. Nobody gets close to Patterson’s pure playmaking quality – he’s an X-Factor type player. The Seahawks might find use for a home-run hitter like this, they don’t have anyone like Patterson currently on the roster. If they want to run the ball a lot and strike with big plays in the passing game, having a guy like Patterson who can make it happen would be considered a major positive. But it would be a major gamble. How badly does he want to succeed? Is he willing to do what it takes to max out his potential, or is he happy to flirt with brilliance with the occasional big play? He has top-15 physical skills but he could just as easily go in round three. Former JUCO transfer who replaced Da’Rick Rogers in the Tennessee offense.
Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
Draft range: Legit top-10 pick
This is a little optimistic and part of me wants to add Chance Warmack to this list if we’re including Milliner. He’s a complete cornerback and deserves to go in the same range as Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne. Some people disagree with that and that’s why he’s part of this list. Scouts Inc only ranks Milliner as their 17th overall prospect at the moment. If Milliner does make it into the teens, then Seattle has to be an option. He’s terrific in run support, can cover as well as any cornerback in college football and flashes elite recovery speed. He’s also a ball hawking playmaker who will force his fair share of turnovers. The Seahawks have experienced some problems covering slot receivers like Danny Amendola and Wes Welker, a role Milliner would thrive on in the first year or two of his career. He also has the range and physical qualities to react to the run and almost act as a third safety. There are only two cornerbacks with obvious first round grades at the moment, and both fit into Seattle’s scheme pretty well. You have to ask though – if this front office can find starters in rounds four (Kam Chancellor), five (Richard Sherman) and in the Canadian Football League (Brandon Browner), will they really spend a first round pick on a third corner? They probably would for the right player and Milliner is a perennial Pro Bowler in the making.
Other possibilities: Matt Elam (S, Florida), Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford), Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford), Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas), Keenan Allen (WR, California), Dallas Thomas (T/G, Tennessee)
I truly hope PC/JS don’t fall into the “we can find starters in any round” trap. If there are starters to be found in the later rounds I have faith PC/JS will find them, but that won’t happen all the time–or even most of the time–no matter how good their process. Those early picks are disproportionately valuable and you really have to hit on a high percentage. Obviously, you want to find value throughout the draft but rarely can you completely offset poor rounds 1-2 with boffo rounds 3-7.
Put another way, PC/JS “crushed it” on Earl Thomas. That is a home run in any ball park. And, Okung is a solid double to the power alley in any park. Irvin is an interesting gamble. Obviously, we won’t know for a while but early results are promising. On the other hand, Richard Sherman, Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner are more like home runs at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. Clearly, they are home runs but you can’t always count on those conditions. (Pete recruited at least Sherman and competed vs. both.)
In truth, a GM can only *LOOK* for talent anywhere in the draft. How the talent is actually distributed has nothing to do with his actions. Just because you look hard for a starting caliber guard in the late rounds doesn’t mean there is one. But, it is so easy to get cavalier about being able to FIND whatever talent you want anywhere in the draft once you’ve struck gold on a couple late picks. I really think that happened to New England from about 2006-2009. (They seem to have turned it around.) Joe Dumars in Detroit, on the other hand, has not turned it around after missing on Darko Milicic. These are not dumb front offices.
Now, to their credit PC/JS appear to BELIEVE in the draft. They accumulate picks, really do their homework and don’t appear to have any rigid axioms (e.g., you can always get a guard in the late rounds). So I don’t *expect* them to do anything goofy.
Great points, Dave.
Agreed, great points.
Great post Dave, I also agree
The feeling I get with this front office is that they approach every offseason with flexibility. Pass rusher was their publicly stated top priority, but if Mark Barron or Luke Kuechly had been there at #12 we might have seen a very different draft (JS said on Sirius radio that his top 3 was Barron/Kuechly/Irvin). Maybe we’d have a Kuechly/Curry draft instead of an Irvin/Wagner one.
There was that rumor, which you may or may not choose to believe, that had Seattle considering Barron and then moving Chancellor to OLB. I’ve always believed that rumor probably had legs, mainly because it reflects the exact kind of flexible thinking this front office has displayed time and again.
Pete Carroll has been flexible in his coaching too. Most of his time prior to coming here he ran zone coverage, including his first season in Seattle (2010). When it clearly was not working, he dramatically shifted gears 180 degrees and went press/man and then started looking for misfits like Sherman and Browner to run it for him.
This should be a fun draft. It is the first draft of this regime that we have no idea what this FO is going to do. There are a lot of options on the table, and it almost feels like these guys are incapable of making the wrong choice these days.
It’s a great warning but I don’t think they look at it that way. They complete their ongoing research and have a list of players they like and they look to draft them where it makes sense and they aren’t afraid to pick a guy a little earlier than the groupthink thinks they should. As an organization, they have shown great ability to find the types of players who will excel in the roles they have defined.
They have a team that they are constantly rebuilding to compete with challengers competing against established starters. The more hits they get, the less weaknesses they have. Unfortunately this will make it tough for potential rookies to make the team no matter where they are drafted. One of the essential elements to uncovering guys like Browner, Sherman, and Chancellor is giving them a shot with some playing time. Browner got that right away but the other two had to wait for their opportunity and then of course the exceeded expectations.
While I agree that Ogletree, on the surface, seems like a luxury pick, I can’t help but think that’s the best move in round 1.
What he would provide to this defense would be unbelievable. You are talking about 3 legit 3 down LBers. That is so rare. Not to mention, his versatility and freak athleticism would truly make this a once a generation defense. Ogletree has the potential to be an elite difference maker with a well rounded game.
Let’s not forget, there is still tons of room for this defense to grow, which is truly scary for the rest of the league. I think he would finish off that puzzle and keep us at the top for the next 5 years.
I always feel like saying though… when’s the last time someone pointed to a 4-3 defense and praised the linebackers? Is having three legit three-down linebackers going to push this team closer to contention? Especially over further improvements to the offense? Not that I’d rule it out – I’m a huge Ogletree fan and think he would be a really good addition to this defense. But until the offense is consistently holding up its end of the bargain, I think that has to be the priority. I guess it depends where the team ends up picking.
I completely agree with you Rob. Offense absolutely needs attention in the draft. I was merely making commentary on how I think the FO might approach this.
And I certainly agree that 4-3 LBers don’t get the pub and realistically don’t require elite talent. That said, I simply think that Ogletree can be a difference maker and offers some unique qualities that would make him truly stand out above all 4-3 LBers. It might be overkill with Wagner emerging and Wright being a stud, but Ogletree could offer a very unique/generational blend of athleticism, pass rush, and coverage ability.
My excitement for him, also stems from him being a knuckle head and quite possibly being significantly more talented than anybody else available in the 20s (due to his mistakes leading to a draft day fall). This might just be a year in which we simply draft the most talented guy available, regardless of position. Ogeltree would certainly fit that criteria.
Let me phrase it this way, if the FO thinks that Ogletree can take the defense to another level, I will have no opposition to it. I am a huge advocate that the offense needs attention, but it’s clear the identity of this team is defense, and if they think a guy can make them even more dominant, then that’s fine with me. I will never fault a GM for drafting a guy who he thinks can be a difference maker, even if the difference making is on an already great unit.
Hard to disagree with any of that. Nicely put.
I have said that we should have picked a wide receiver or tight end in last years draft. Instead we went defense first two rounds. In fact we have only made one high receiver pick in three years. Eventually a lack of quality receivers at economic rookie prices will catch up to us. So I would advocate for drafting at least one wide receiver, one tight end, and two offensive linemen. That should boost our offense. We would still have picks for linebacker and defensive tackle.
In fairness though, I’m not sure we can complain about the two defensive guys they took this year. Wagner looks like a Pro-Bowler, Irvin is playing his part.
As long as Pete is Head Coach, I would get used to seeing defensive players drafted. They haven’t neglected the offense either. Brought in Sid, Zach, Marshawn…. When the time is right they’ll nab the offensive guys.
It’s also worth noting that John Schneider wasn’t particularly high on this year’s class (2012) of receivers.
Mtjhoyas, There was a time Seattle also had over $100 million invested in Linebackers…. and it got them nowhere. Personally, I’d rather have more defensive linemen and keep the secondary stocked.
Different under new CBA. Not the same money.
The thing I find interesting about a player like Ogletree (and this may have been mentioned didn’t quite get through all the comments), is with all the hype of following the Patriots mold of having 2 big & athletic pass catching tight ends having fast athletic linebackers to cover them could now become a huge asset for defence’s to have these days?
Also don’t want to get fixed in on one player this far away from the draft but a comment I read (believe it was Kip over on .net apologies if i’m wrong there) that intrigued me about Ogletree was how similar physically he is to Kam Chancellor and mentioning how there was that report near the draft last year saying Schneider might move Kam to and LB and take Barron. Which I found interesting but didnt necessarily agree with. With drafting Ogletree it would give Schneider that LB he would seek without moving your Pro Bowl safety. This of course is if that report was actually true.
Without doubt Ogletree looks like he was made to play in this defense. He has to be on the radar next year.
YES YES YES JESSE WILLIAMS SIGHTING, but honestly I bet he is going to be drafted in the mid first round (Dontari Poe style). He’sgoing to have a great showing at the Combine barring any injury. Can play fullback as well sorry Rob don’t remember which game was this.
He’s been featuring in the ‘Terrance Cody position’ in a few games this year. Goes in at FB on goal-line downs. I’m not convinced he’ll manage a rise like Poe, who had rare athleticism for his size. Williams is good, but he’s not got that same level of upside.
Indeed. JWilliams is pretty versatile, playing DE there last year. Does he remind you of Stephen Paea?
A little bit. I think Paea was better suited to the 4-3 while Williams is pretty adaptable and can work the nose.
In the Arkansas tape I was watching Williams when they went with a 4-3 and he was absolutely tearing it up. Getting off of blocks well. When he keeps a low pad level he shreds opposing lineman. He’s also got a high motor and good pursuit. You were right about him playing like a rugby guy. He can really throw guys around out there. Seems to be a FON to me. Can’t wait till the combine. Hope he does terrible so we can get him in the second.
It’s important to remember that PC/JS do things backwards from us.
We fans draft by round; we outline which players will be available in a certain round and then decide which OUT OF THAT SUBSET is likely to be drafted by Seattle.
PC and JS, on the other hand, go out and find their guys first according to THEIR system of value, then just wait to select them until the last possible round they feel they can get away with. This explains why their draft priorities are so “out of whack”.
They drafted Irvin way ahead of accepted schedule, because he was a first-rounder FOR THEM and probably because they anticipated other teams wanting him. Schneider wanted Wilson in the second and was talked down into the third. Carpenter was a reach, but he had first-round value for the team’s running game and was also being targeted by a handful of other late-first teams.
Those were Seattle’s guys, and it was just a matter of calculating how long they were likely to last. If Seattle had felt that Richard Sherman was going to go in the early second round, they’d probably have drafted him instead of Carpenter. People would have mocked that pick just as much, and this year they’d be eating their words just as much.
So Rob, you’re taking the right approach on this. Find guys that PC/JS would want and estimate their round-value to THEM.
We took Carp because Cable wanted him and Moffit. Like. They literally asked him who he wanted and that’s who we got.
To be fair, we took Carpenter because several other lineman they liked more got taken before their pick- namely Nate Solder and Danny Watkins. Cable/FO was SUPER high on both those guys. Carpenter was only selected after Seattle couldn’t get a decent deal to move down.
Hey Rob – Where do you project Tavon Austin going in the draft and do you think the Seahawks would be interested in him?
I know Austin is tiny and the Seahawks love big receivers – but the Seahawks don’t have any shifty/speedy weapons who put pressure on the D by consistently making people miss and getting YAC on short easy passes out in the flat. I’m just wondering your take on him as pick for the Seahawks?
They don’t love big receivers. They love LONG receivers. Players with long arms and big hands. You don’t have to be tall. Austin has decent length and plays above his weight. He takes big, galloping strides. He looks like a first rounder, but may fall due to his lack of SIZE. He projects well, but I don’t think the Seahawks will take a chance on a receiver unless they are FON status.
I’m not completely sold on Seattle drafting Austin. For me he’s a R1-2 pick and he can be explosive, but I’m not sure another short, speedy receiver will be the choice.
thank you Rob for feeding a need. Dont know anything about Jesse yet but I”ll have to look him up. I think he’d be a great fit because we need a legitimate backup run stuffer behind Mebane. I don’t know if it’s still an issue, but in the past we have seen our run d fall off without Brandon in there.
I like the idea of trading up for Brandon but doubt Pete and John will spend very much draft capital to move up. Robert Woods is a great pick though because of his run after the catch. Not sure if he fits the bill, but I would love for us to get a DeSean Jackson type player for the offense.
I think we are loaded in the big DB department and can groom the guys we have to take over when needed. I know Winston Guy has the passion and reminds me a bit of Sherman in that department.
Personally, I think our number one need right now is another legitimate pass rusher to fill in for and succeed Clemons, followed by a #1 wide receiver, and behind that, a pass catching tight end although we may have that in Emo.
Thank you for your tireless work, keep it up 🙂
Bruce Irvin has been improving SO much this year. He’s been inconsistent, but he’s developing better moves and isn’t trying to square up blockers anymore. He and Jason Jones if we retain offer insane pass rush.
After looking at your mock draft I realized who I wanted in 2013, Dion Jordan! With Tavon Austin a close second.
I believe Jordan will blossom late in the season as he learns how to get that long body under control. But from what I have seen, he has the athleticism and length to “Bend the Corner” Haha! My first comment was a misspell “Bed the corner” Ouch.
I haven’t seen much of Tavon Austin but what little I did see, he looks like he could be explosive. Time will tell if I’m right, or way off the mark 🙂
That’s dumb. The ONLY thing Dion Jordan has going for him is his freak size. I’m a die hard ducks fan (gonna be going there next fall) and I can say with certainty that Dion Jordan isn’t really playing like a first round prospect.
It all really depends on how the draft falls. But I would like to see Brandon Coleman in the first. Jesse Williams in the second and an OLB in the third. I haven’t really been looking at the later round prospects, yet. Although, I’ve been really impressed with Vai Lutui from Kansas State. So, maybe take him in the 3rd and an OLB in the 2nd. Perhaps Ogeltree falls there? That’d be a dream.
With the success that the Hawks are having on defense, I say they need to focus on the offense. The past 3 drafts under PC/JS, they drafted 19 players on defense and only 9 players on offense.
The offensive line maybe okay for run blocking, but they are one of the worse in pass blocking, causing Wilson to have to run around to avoid sacks. They should strengthen the offensive line, and draft a speed/ shifty RB who can catch out of the backfield (Barner U of O) in the second round. The WR are doing fine.
They weren’t even good with run blocking against New England. Marshawn was tackled behind the line of scrimmage acouple times.
What bout C.J. Mosley ? Or taking teo and moving Wagner to Leroy’s spot.
I could add a number of other players to the list and I like Mosley and Wagner a lot. But Ogletree got the nod at LB this time and I have to say I’m not totally convinced the Seahawks need to go big at the position or move Bobby Wagner around. It’s a unit that’s working right now.
I don’t know I think Mosley-Wagner-Wright would be pretty filthy, maybe go for someone like Aaron Dobson from Marshall or Joseph Fauria from UCLA later in the draft
I’m not a huge fan of Dobson – he’s kind of living off one great catch. I like Mosley but this team has had major investment at linebacker before and it got us nowhere. Signing Houshmandzadeh, papering over the cracks on offense and drafting a luxury linebacker played a big part in costing Tim Ruskell his job.
True that but Ruskell also had a different approach to drafting than Pete and John currently do. His “safe” pick approach is what did him in the end. It’s seems we have had more luck with defensive players in the later rounds than offensive. Depending if Leroy stays or goes could influence if we pick up a LB early in the draft. I feel we are similar to Atlanta two years ago, one special receiving threat away from being truly dominate on offense. Is Brandon Coleman worth the drastic move up the board to get him? I would also like your thoughts on Travis long from WSU or Jonathan Brown from Illinois
Great discussion.
I think Seattle also realizes they have an Achilles heel against teams with speedy little guys in the slot. In addition to big corners, they could essentially use a pair of 5’11” high speed shut down nickel-dime backs. They may have one already on the roster in Walter Thurmond III when he gets healthy but they could upgrade Trufant with youth and speed in addition to Leroy.