I’ve gone against my convictions this week. Tony Pauline at Draft Insider.net and SI.com is one of the best in the business at getting the inside edge on what teams are thinking in the draft. Last year he quoted sources claiming Tyron Smith would be a top-ten pick long before people were even including him in their mock drafts. The Dallas Cowboys drafted Smith ninth overall. When Pauline reports on what the teams are thinking, it’s worth taking notice.
Ryan Tannehill isn’t someone I can grade as a first round pick. He was bitterly disappointing during the 2011 season and justifications like a lack of experience were off-set by an ideal environment including high quality pass protection and a cluster of NFL weapons. I’ve not included him in a single projection so far because I didn’t expect him to be drafted in round one. However – despite breaking his foot and pulling out of the Senior Bowl this week – Pauline is today reporting that Tannehill will very likely go in the top-15:
“Why is Tannehill making such a bounce up draft boards in recent weeks? One trusted source told me teams are eating up the quarterbacks upside potential and described it as “the love affair factor”- teams see what Tannehillcan develop into at the next level and can’t stay away. His athleticism, mobility, toughness and decision making all has scouts giddy. With Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder coming off the board so early in the 2011 NFL Draft, teams now feel they have the green light to select someone such as Tannehill earlier than most anticipate. Sources are saying don’t be shocked if the Texas A&M product ends up as a top 15 choice, depending on the injury.” – Tony Pauline
It’d be ignorant to brush aside such a report and for those reasons I have to put him in this week’s mock. The question is, how high does he go? I had a strong suspicion last year that Washington were hoping to draft Jake Locker with the 10th overall pick – so much so, I never budged from that predicition throughout the process. Locker fit like a glove in Mike Shanahan’s offense and it wasn’t surprising that the Redskins traded down – rejecting Blaine Gabbert in the process – after Tennessee chose Locker at #8. Tannehill doesn’t have the same upside as the former Washington quarterback, but he has a very similar skill set. Having come so close to getting their man last year, perhaps Shanahan won’t take any chances in 2012? After all, the relative cost of picking in the top-10 is much less these days so he can afford to roll the dice (at least financially). It wouldn’t necessarily prevent the Redskins from signing a prospective free agent like Peyton Manning. After all, Tennessee quickly signed Matt Hasselbeck to a three-year contract after drafting Locker.
The Cleveland Browns still provide healthy debate at #4. I think there’s a good chance they will look at other options at quarterback rather than draft Robert Griffin III and I have to believe Trent Richardson will be on their radar. We’ll know more depending on what the Browns do in free agency, with Matt Flynn a possible target and maybe even Kevin Kolb if the Cardinals trigger their ‘get-out’ clause after a series of mediocre performances last season. If the Browns do pass on Griffin III, I don’t think it’s a shoe-in that he’d automatically go to Washington. Let’s not forget, many people expected Blaine Gabbert to be the second quarterback drafted last April but he was chosen after Jake Locker. Although the hype for Rg3 is much greater, I still think there’s a very good chance he could fall to Miami at #8 or #9. If the Seahawks want a shot at Griffin, they’re going to have to move up.
For Seattle’s pick this week I’ve returned to Courtney Upshaw. He’s not going to provide that burst of speed in the front seven that Pete Carroll is looking for, but he’ll improve the team’s pass rush. Despite his lack of height, he’s a warrior at the LOS and holds up incredibly well against the run. Seattle could use a lot of different looks, using Upshaw as a power end at times in a front four and in space off the edge on certain calls with the three big bodies in the middle and Clemons at the LEO. They could even try him as a WILL linebacker and certainly he flashed decent mobility against LSU, although coverage skills aren’t a strength. What he could provide is a more balanced attack while helping to build the teams physical style that refuses to concede the run. He’ll be a tone setter, a ring leader and his attitude coincides with the other players already on the team. He might not be the lean, elite edge rusher that usually goes in the top-15 – but there’s every chance he’ll have an impact in the NFL. At the top of this blog post, you’ll find game tape from Upshaw’s performance against LSU in the BCS Championship courtesy of JMPasq.
Note: Yesterday I conducted an interview with Danny Kelly at Field Gulls talking about several quarterback prospects. To see the piece in full, click here.
Updated first round mock draft
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#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Despite a lot of talk about keeping Manning and drafting Luck, it remains an unlikely proposition. Long term thinking will win out. |
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#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two. |
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#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Minnesota would love a shot at Kalil. Claiborne is a decent consolation prize to improve their struggling secondary. |
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#4 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Richardson has to be a consideration here, but the hype surrounding RG3 is intense and it’ll be tough for Cleveland to justify passing. |
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#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite talent who will be a star in year one. Tampa Bay get a steal with this pick if Richardson is still on the board. |
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#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) A foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15, Washington is the obvious choice. |
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#7 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is too high for Blackmon in my opinion, but his production will interest teams. The Jaguars need to help Blaine Gabbert. |
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#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Miami will pick 8th if they win a coin toss with Carolina. With RG3 off the board, expect Miami to beef up their run game. |
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#9 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) A complete lack of defensive line talent could encourage one or two unexpected players to declare. Brockers is one to watch. |
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#10 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Bills go into the off-season needing to improve their pass rush and pass protection. Martin would be a wise pick here. |
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#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Undersized but a tackling machine. The kind of player Scott Pioli likes to draft for his team. |
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#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) If the Seahawks want to improve their pass rush and continue to build a defensive identity, Upshaw could be the pick here. |
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#13 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) With the tackles leaving the board early, Arizona will be forced to address their second most important need – an outside rush. |
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#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but struggles in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning. |
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#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) The Eagles will look closely at the linebacker position and Brown is a good fit for Philly’s scheme. |
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#16 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Few players have enjoyed the level of progress shown by Barron in 2011. He’s firmly in the round one equation. |
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#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack. |
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#18 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) They won’t franchise Vincent Jackson again and need a weapon for Philip Rivers. Jones could be the complete package. Underrated. |
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#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The ultimate deep threat. Jay Cutler will get the most out of Wright, who should be able to have a Mike Wallace-type impact. |
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#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation in 2011 for sacks. A hard player to work out. |
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#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. The Bengals needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly. |
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#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with Trent Richardson and it’ll be much improved. They’d still need a quarterback. |
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#23 Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia) He doesn’t have elite size but he’ll light up the combine and push his stock into this range. |
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#24 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Although his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing in the AFC North. |
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#25 Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri) He’s very much the modern tight end – a pure pass catcher who will make spectacular plays downfield. |
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#26 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos run the ball well and could look to add another back to their stable. Carolina had two first round runners under John Fox. |
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#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) I’m still trying to get an angle on Still. It often looks like his best fit may be at the five-technique. |
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#28 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro |
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#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and Jim Harbaugh will find different ways to get him involved. Another powerful weapon for San Fran. |
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#30 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) In recent years Baltimore have capitalised on players falling into this range to get value. Coples could drop into the late first. |
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#31 Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) Jeffery divides opinion. He is capable of making big plays, but he runs sloppy routes and looks ‘too big’. |
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#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) He plays a bit like a runaway train. He’s unbalanced but moves well for a big guy. He looks ideal for the 5-technique position. |
Great stuff as always Rob, keep it up.
I really am starting to like Upshaw in the first if we don’t feel any QB there is worth it. I know that you havn’t really talked about this much but is there any chance that Seattle may double dip on the D line in rounds 1 and 2 if the right players are there?
I think a possible scenario that could play out is us selecting Upshaw and then the next best player on the D line in round 2. That way your other scenario of drafting 2 mid round QB’s could work out as well. I would love to know what you think.
This draft is incredibly mediocre. Seattle needs to go up and get RG3. Realistically, we could win 11 games with RG3 at the helm. The talent is there at WR. We have a stud OL that will only get better. There is a stud at RB in Lynch. The defense was one of the best in the NFL despite little pass rush. This team is the ’07 Ravens before they got Flacco. As soon as he arrived they began ascending in the standings. We can’t stand pat and just waste a season waiting for something to happen. Let’s make a move and get after it.
Another thing that really bugs me is this Cleveland Browns worry. They aren’t taking RG3. They will pick 2 players who really don’t make them better and they will continue their ineptitude streak. I love the hoarding of draftpicks that Schneider does but at somepoint we have to go get our guy. A great opportunity is sitting there.
Completely agree, Colin.
Upshaw would make a great “dirtbag”, to quote Jim Mora Jr. Interesting pick, but I’d be ok with this. I find the Tannehill jump unlikely, but I didn’t think Ponder would go at 12 either. I sure hope he does, especially if it pushes RG3 back. That can only benefit the Hawks.
Rob, I’m curious where you think Upshaw fits in this defense. Do you see him as a leo?
Nick – I like your scenario as well. If we could grab Irvin in the 2nd, I’d be pretty pleased with that draft-
Upshaw
Irvin
Davis
Speedy LB
Harnish
(or some combination of project QB’s in the middle round). I think RG3 will be too far out of reach for us (but I’m hoping for the opposite), so upgrading the defense is fine with me. Adding some pass rush while continuing to shut down the run, with our secondary, would add up to a borderline elite defense (or borderline homerism for me :]).
Love the upshaw pick @ 11 or 12! Think he would be a great addition to pair oppisite clemons on pass rush! And also we could use him as a rotational player and give clemons a rest on running downs! With clemons, red, and him we would have 3 DE that always have fresh legs and can stop the run and get @ the passer! If we don’t get RG3 and stay put I love this pick! The kid is a winner and has the attitude to fit right in with the hawks personality on defense!
Although there is no need, the only person I can be happy with up trading up for is Richardson (if he falls to the 7-8 range). Otherwise, I am heavily in favor in trading down to acquire late round picks this year or, preferably, next year (where the draft class will hopefully be much better in terms of D-linemen).
Great mock! Keep em coming
Nick – if they don’t go all in for a quarterback early, I think that’s likely. They will probably also consider wide receivers and running backs in round two.
Troy – I need to see him work out at the combine to see if he’s got the necessary agility to play the WILL, ideally a spot he could fill. He’s more of a power end than a LEO and while that’s not an obvious scheme fit currently, using a more orthodox 4-3 could help create a better pass rush on certain downs.
What is upshaws size? Does he have room 2 grow more and be reds eventual replacement?
I think that’s unlikely MLT – he’s more of a power end as you can see in the video than a defensive tackle. I’m actually wondering if he could shed some weight to adapt to the WILL.
I read today that Tannehill hurt his foot and is going to be unavailable for the Senior Bowl which will likely hurt his draft stock after a questionable performance this season. I certainly wouldn’t believe a team would take him in the first round.
I heard Tim Hasselback singing the praises of Brian Hoyer on the radio today, saying that he is the one back up QB better than Matt Flynn in the pre-season the past few years. He is apparently a free agent this off season. I know nothing about the guy but trust that Hasselback understands the QB position better than I do. My question, Rob, is whether you know anything about the guy and, if so, does he fit with the Seahawks needs at the position? I question whether the Patriot’s system translates to our position. While I like Flynn’s intangibles, his passes all seem to float and Hasselback was impressed with Hoyers arm strength. Could this be another alternative for the Seahawks at QB?
I saw Upshaw flashing in the National Championship game, but I wonder about his speed. At about 4:50 in the highlights Jefferson runs right by Courtney. He certainly has a good skill set for our scheme. I wonder if Mercilus is better fit, but everything I hear about him is he is overrated. Andre Branch is also a consideration, but he does not seem to have a consistent burst. Zach Brown has the speed at linebacker that Coach Carroll mentioned. In the end, I’m starting to think they go after a touchdown maker like Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, or Kendall Wright.
I have to disagree with your Upshaw pick, you said in your write-up that he doesn’t fit what PC is looking for and with DEs available that do fit that mold I have to go with another option. I really do like Upshaw, don’t get me wrong, he identifies plays well and gets to the ball which I really like… I’ve seen other projections that list him more of a 3-4 OLB. If we kept the 11/12 pick I see Whitney Mercelius more of what PC would be looking for… quick off the edge and in my opinion is the best pass rushing DE in this class… you have him going at 20 so 11/12 isn’t a reach. Or if we can trade back a bit… Vinny Curry is another pass rushing DE I think would fit well in our system. Your thoughts on them and why you passed on Mercelius for us?
I’ve seen many mocks having us take Tannehill in the 1st. I really hope that doesn’t happen. 1st round picks should be saved for players that will make an impact immediately. I’d be happy with Upshaw, Mercelius, Montgomery( if he declares), Nick Perry…whatever, get a playmaker/ quarterback devourer with the 1st pick and then draft for potential in later rounds.
I like the looks of Osweiler personally…he’d be a nice 3rd rounder.
@ tom page! I love the idea of playmaker @ wr if they don’t find a fit @ DE or QB! I just love the sound of rice, baldwin, tate, and dwight jones/blackmon/ or floyd! I would think even tarvaris could be successfull with those targets! And that’s not even including carlson and miller! teams would be awful risky to stack the box against lynch with that receiving corp! Love the idea but we do need qb and DE worse or some kind of pass rusher anyways!
Courtney Upshaw is just a guy. You can get his like in free agency… cheap.
If Upshaw could prove to be decent at covering TEs I think he’d work well at SAM when we use the Under Front putting him next to Big Red making an a front impossible to run on and being a big pass rushing threat from that side. He could then play WILL in the regular 4-3 front leaving him off the TE. I don’t know if he’d be a dangerous enough as a pure pass rusher to play DE in Nickel and Dime or play LB in those sets so I think it hurts his value some to Seattle’s scheme. If Carroll really did draft Upshaw I’d think it was a real good move because then we’d know Carroll was confident in his ability to scheme with Upshaw and a well schemed Upshaw make him worth the pick.
Why get any more players at our deepest position WR… If big play ability wasn’t what Ricardo Locette showed then I dont know what you ppl want & with sid and Mike back Doug will thrive again. Sid & BMW have injury problems I get that but why so early when diamonds have been discovered in later rounds for us? I say go into this year with what we have BMW & Obomanu will be entering their contract years. If RG3 touches anything past Washington we need to get on the phone ASAP. A pass rushing DE is not going to takeover games, he’ll make a diffrence but if we keep putting tha ball in a average qbs hand we will always play average instead of elite game in and game out. Im not a fan of Cam Newton but in a lock-out year look at what his playmaking ability did for Carolina. Point is we need to make a move on this position or we’ll end up having this same convo next year. Attempt a move for luck if it fails & RG3 gets past Washington be aggressive. Now if that doesn’t happen try to trade in the 20’s and pick up a 1st for next year and hope Whitney Marcellius (1 yr wonder I know but Piere-Paul and Aldon Smith were similar) is available. If we stay put I actually like Zach Brown LB is a thin position were slow & aged at and may look different come next season. My wish is RG# he plays within his system and undercontroll & Luck will be to expensive & have alot to live up to and that could be his opposing teams 12th man.
I don’t understand why people are saying that Whitney Mercelius is a one year wonder and overrated. I could see that lable if he had only a couple good games, but watch him against Ohio State and Wisconsin. The 2 tackles he was up against in those games have been deemed as NFL prospects. If he faltered in those match-ups I can see the hesitation or overrated tag. I like him and I think he’d be a great addition.
I like the pass rushers you have been mocking to Seattle Rob but to take a first round guy that will be a rotational player opposite Clemons seems like a lot of draft capital for not a lot of immediate return. Not thatI’m against taking a pass rusher, conversely I’m thinking Clemons, at age 31, cold be the rotational player this year with a frist round pick like Upshaw playing the Leo as an everydown guy. I love Clemons but age will start to be a factor soon. Also, I could see us taking two front-7 players with our first two picks and not retaining Leroy Hill.
To touch on WR, ‘most’ of the WRs I think fit PC’s style and build are guys that will be gone by the end of the 2nd round and I’m hoping for Chris Polk in round 2. If he’s gone I go WR and Marvin McNutt or Nick Toon. Both fit PC’s mold of what he likes in WRs. That said, there might be a couple of ‘sleepers’ to watch for in round 3 or later
AJ Jenkins – Illinois
Jarrett Boykins – Virginia Tech
Risard Matthews – Nevada <— most interested to see his results at combine, smaller school didn't see much competition, hard to find decent film on him, but was Colin Kaepernick's main target… many thought he'd disappear this year with Kaep leaving for NFL, but responded with 91 receptions for 1364 yards and 8 TDs.
@CLT: That’s my fear with Upshaw–that he’s just a guy who ends up being a DE/OLB tweener, and an odd run-oriented tweener at that. He can play, but his skill set isn’t distinctive to me. If Rob says he’s good, I don’t doubt it but…
Based on how you described him fitting as a power end with Seattle, I’m struggling to see the value. Power ends that can bring more to pass rush than Red seem plentiful in this draft. Melvin Ingram from S. Carolina seems like a better fit for that than Upshaw, and he may be a better pass rusher–or at least not worse. Ingram’s versatility certainly rivals Upshaw’s. Later guys include Cam Johnson (UVa) or Jared Crick (NEB).
The choices at 11/12 aren’t likely to be obvious. I wouldn’t cry about Upshaw, I just wonder if his upside is much higher than other run-oriented DEs. Why not a high-updside pass rusher like Nick Perry?
The vibe I am getting from Cleveland fans is that the hard choice at #4 would be Blackmon or RG3. A lot of them feel like Richardson is a reach (I think Blackmon is) because there are so many good RB’s in this draft.
I’ve seen a couple Browns fans (this is just fans, mind you) go nuts at the idea of Blackmon at 4, Tannehill at 22, and Running Back X (Miller/Polk/James) in the second. To me, this sounds really good for the Seahawks. I think trading up with the Bucs would be MUCH easier than the Vikes. I think it would also decrease the chance of the Redskins jumping up one spot, because they would have Richardson on a silver platter at #6.
Craiger – I have Brian Hoyer tape that I will publish on the blog one day soon. My opinion is mixed on him, not overly impressive.
Tarry – I’m not sure they’re looking for a LEO in R1 because the position is specialist and would only have spot duty in year one. Trying to find alternatives who can start and improve the pass rush leads me away from players of that ilk.
Nathan – he’d play most snaps, but spell between the WILL and power end.
http://www.walterfootball.com just updated their mock draft through 4 rounds. I must say, it looks glorious for Seahawks fans. Although I’d go with Boise St. RB rather than OG ( if they were available in the 3rd).
Take a look. Tell me what you think Rob.
Rob: any thoughts on the Hawks taking LaMichael James in round 2?
Also, I like the idea of two mid-round project QBs in the form of Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson…any thoughts?
I’m very interested in seeing how free agency reshapes the QB situation around the league. This should give us a clearer idea as to what is needed to make a move for Griffin. If the price is too high, then I would love to see the ‘Hawks trade back and acquire more pick. If neither opportunity presents itself, then I like Zach Brown at 11/12.
Also, @Rob, do you think that David Wilson will still be available for the ‘Hawks in R2? I know a lot of people on this site really like Polk, but I feel like Wilson is a better fit for the ‘Hawks.
Love the blog. Keep up the great work. Thanks.
Brockers is will declare for the draft today…
http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2012/01/lsus_les_miles_to_hold_press_c.html
Yeeeeeeeaaaaaaah boooooooiiiiiiiiii!
Ryan, I read that same Mock, and i thought it was a nice draft, but i really would like us to go after Griffin, if Washington and Cleveland pass on him, i think it would be nice if they hawks traded up to the Jags and got Griffin. Im thinking maybe Richardson for the Browns and then the Redskins taking Blackmon. that would be the ideal draft for me.
Colin- “This draft is incredibly mediocre. Seattle needs to go up and get RG3. Realistically, we could win 11 games with RG3 at the helm. The talent is there at WR. We have a stud OL that will only get better. There is a stud at RB in Lynch. The defense was one of the best in the NFL despite little pass rush. This team is the ’07 Ravens before they got Flacco. As soon as he arrived they began ascending in the standings. We can’t stand pat and just waste a season waiting for something to happen. Let’s make a move and get after it. ”
I agree 100%.
I wish we had a mathmetician that could perform some sort of algorithm or regression analysis to determine the success probabilities of trading up for RG3 or standing pat at #11/#12.
I’m with Rob on how strong the WR draft is this year but I actually have faith in the continual grooming of RLockette as deep threat, Rice, Tate, Baldwin and we still have Obo, Butler, MWill and Durham. Dang… RG3 would have a field day with that corp. That’s where all the impact talent is this year, WR.
I see a high prob of a bust at #11/#12 if we stand pat and take BPA at need area. So using that bust prob with a likely 20’s selection in 2012 if we move up for RG3, I’d trade our 2011 #1 and 2012 #1 which I forecast in the 20’s. It may take another 3rd and 5th as added incentive. It seems like an arm and leg but like you, Colin, this draft is mediocre at our bpa needs. Plus, using the Present Value of a 2012 – 20’s #1 reduces that value and makes it a high 2nd…. Paralysis by analysis but you can get the idea of where I’m going with this.
Any math wizards out there?
Good topic, Good debate and Good options, especially for January. I can only imagine what conversations will be like after the Sr Bowl, EW game and combines…. This site is going to blow up!
I’m kind of with you guy’s on RG3…if the price were right, but I’d be pretty shocked if they went that way. I certainly, don’t think Atlanta is a franchise to admire and I don’t believe I’ve ever seen the Patriot’s, The Packer’s, or The Steeler’s ever making a move like that. I just feel like those are the franchises that have the proper model to follow.
Either way…whatever they decide, it’s gonna be fun.
Ryan, the problem with following an Atlanta, Pitt or GB model is they got their QB’s from drafting where they were- high in the draft (except Rodgers). I just can’t see this team being bad enough to draft high soon. Being aggressive is the only logical thing to do right now. Whether they go get a Flynn, or an RG3, they HAVE to do something to clean up the QB mess. Pete and John must get their guy. Another year of Tarvaris isn’t acceptable.
I like him…I just wouldnt give up 4 first rounders to get him.
I think a healthy Tavaris with a healthy O-line and a full off season to develop Josh Portis and another QB maybe Osweiller is a better plan. I also think this regime has the benefit of Paul Allen $$… their window for improvement is bigger than most.
If we are giving up 4 1st rounders, it better be to get Andrew Luck.
I agree…that’s all I’m saying. I think it’s gonna be a kings ransom to get either of those guys.
There’s a great article on Field Gulls today about scapegoating T-Jack for our losses this year. It’s worth a read.
Rob,
What do you think Carroll will do with the QB position this offseason?
I ask because it seems like he’s set it up so that he could go in many different directions.
I think that I would be equally unsurprised if he:
-drafted a quarterback if one fell to him (one of the top two)
-drafted a QB in the second round
-drafted one or more of the second/third tier QB’s
-draft no QB at all (he could say they like Portis
-went after Flynn
-traded picks for next year (because he really wants Barkley)
I really have no idea. I think the best idea would be to trade as many draft picks (current and future, but save the later round picks because he has been good with those and they aren’t worth as much anyway) as required to pick one of the top two guys but trading up has not been his MO.
-Also, do you think they would trade up a couple of spots to get Brockers (I think that today he announced he was entering the draft) a couple of spots if the QB’s are off the board?
Thanks for the blog, it is one of the two best Seahawks blogs going right now IMO.
Thanks for the kind words Griffin B – really appreciated and it means a lot.
I think really the impression I get is that all bets are off right now, meaning the Seahawks probably don’t know what they’re going to do yet. I suspect they won’t make any big free agent splashes at QB but will draft at least one QB. Then the debating begins – will they trade up? Will they trade down? Will they reach on a guy? Will they add a couple of quarterbacks? It’s a great debate right now and I’m not sure what they will do. RG3 looks a lot like the ideal, but you can never be sure. There are other QB’s who could also fit the bill. I’m looking forward to finding out as we piece this all together.
Would they trade up for Brockers? I’d say probably not unless it was a great deal, but he absolutely must be on the radar if he’s there at #11.
Thanks for the reply Rob.
I only asked about Brockers because with our current scheme he would be an ideal way to add pass rush because they wouldn’t have to change their philosophy of an unbalanced line.
Apart from QB, the pass rush has to be the next biggest thing on the FO’s mind and right now, as far as draft prospects, I just don’t see many possibilities to add pressure, without changing the scheme, apart from a penetrating tackle. I’m sure they would like a pass rushing linebacker, but I don’t think there is anyone in this draft of that caliber that will be worth their pick.
Also, with what Carroll said about getting faster, how do you think they do that if they pick Upshaw?
Tell me if I’m wrong, but was your vision with Upshaw that he would drop weight to play linebacker? If so, what makes him different than Leroy Hill? They would both be linebackers who play the run tough but don’t offer much in pass rush. If he doesn’t drop weight to play linebacker then where does he play? If they draft him as an end to get away from the unbalanced line, then do you think he would be the best 4-3 DE available at that spot?
For those who want to trade down, unfortunately it doesn’t really look like there’s a lot on the board at our pick to encourage anyone to trade up. Our best hope if we want to move down is that Jonathan Martin is still on the board and that someone wants to jump on the last 1st round caliber OT. Possibly if someone (Bengals?) is really infatuated with Dre Kirkpatrick you could see similar leverage, but otherwise I don’t see anyone available in the 11-15 range that will attract big trade offers.
“This draft is incredibly mediocre.”
Definitely in the 1st round- but the mid rounds look really “sexy” this year. My favorite pass rusher in the entire draft (Bruce Irvin) will probably be a 3rd round pick. One of my favorite RBs in this draft (Doug Martin) could be a 3rd or 4th rounder. Then you have QBs like Davis, Harnish, and potentially Osweiler.
I’m all for moving up for Griffin, but I’d honestly rather pay a future 1st than pay a truckload of later picks, the way this draft is shaping up.
This blog continues to amaze. I would consider it in the top 3 of draft analysis, behind perhaps ESPN and CBS. I am a pain in the arse on this blog, but I have much respect for it. Nice work.
Hub Arkush and others reported that the Redskins traded down thinking they’d be able to get Ponder.
Rob, I am not in agreement that PC & JS would consider Upshaw at 11th pick. They want more speed on defense, and though he is effective, he does not add that element. Have you reviewed Nick Perry? I dont know how far down Seattle could tradeand still get him, but he is a very effective, instinctive, and quick player. He is flying under the radar on most drafts, but undervalued in my opinion.
Hi Derian,
I’m not convinced on Perry as a high pick. He’s not an elite speed, edge rusher type and he doesnt have the usual length for the LEO. He looks like a modest pass rusher, someone who can work in a rotation but not scare an offense much. Although Pete recruited him, it’s not a caveat to pro-favor (eg, Lawrence Jackson). I take your point on Upshaw though, it’s difficult to work out what the Seahawks are going to do at #11 or #12 though.
Love the pick. I have been wanting Upshaw since back when I thought for sure we were gonna beat the Cardinals and pick around 18th. He might need to work on his coverage ability, but it really wouldn’t be too hard for him to surpass Leroy as far as that goes.
He definitely fits Pete Carroll’s comments that they are going to get faster up front. I think for sure we go after Upshaw or Branch in the 1st, and hope for Jerel Worthy, Ronnell Lewis, or Zach Brown to fall to us in the 2nd. If none are there I could see us looking in another direction altogether, depending on who we retain in free agency.
We could look at Osweiler (my personal favorite QB at the moment). I really like Chris Polk, even if we keep Lynch (which we should). He has the right mentality and physicality for the power run game and could spell Lynch when needed. Reuben Randle has legit hands and has the height we look for. We could possibly trade the pick for a another 1st next year.
fwiw,,,
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/57563/2012-kiper-mock-1-0-seahawks-thoughts