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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Record: 3-1

Thoughts

Last year, the team also started 3-1 in their first four games.  They then lost four out of their next five and it cost them the division and a playoff spot.

What is the difference between last year and this year?  The peaks and valleys last year turned out to be prescient of the next few weeks.  The team struggled with a different facet of the game nearly every week.

This year is a far more balanced 3-1 team.  Both the offense and defense are high in the top-10 in scoring and special teams had an ‘explosive trifecta’ this quarter: A blocked punt and return touchdowns on both a punt and a kickoff.

There are things to work on to be sure, but the fundamentals of this team are strong.  Something fans have not been able to say for years.

MVP

1a. Sam Darnold

The decision by the Seahawks to pivot quickly from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold in March made a lot of sense on paper.  Darnold was younger, cost less, and was a natural fit in the new offense Mike Macdonald was installing with Klint Kubiak.

Mixing all the ingredients and making the offense go is another matter altogether.  How would Darnold fit in the locker room?  Would he be able to quickly form chemistry with his new group of receivers, most notably new top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba?  Would concerns about his late-season struggles under the face of pass-rush pressure doom an offense that had only added Grey Zabel to its Offensive Line?  Is his success totally dependent upon being carried by a dominant running game?

All questions and concerns have been answered to the extent that they can be in the first four games.

Darnold is among the NFL’s best passers statistically.

Perhaps the best stat to distill Darnold’s play so far might be On Target Throw Percentage from Pro Football Reference.  They take Total pass attempts and remove Spikes and Throwaways to get a better picture of a Quarterback’s accuracy.

Darnold is far and away leading the NFL with an 82.8% number.

He is above a group of players at around 80% On Throw Percentage: Daniel Jones, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff.

The big difference between Darnold and that tier of Quarterbacks is throwing short passes at a very healthy clip.  They are all in the 5.5-6.8 Air Yards per Completed Pass, while Donald is clocking in at 8.1 – deepest average in the NFL.

So, he is more accurate than everyone else while throwing much farther than his next best Quarterback.

Does he have chemistry with his teammates?  Yes, he does.

Draw up a realistic best-case scenario for the first four games the moment Darnold signed with the Seahawks in March.  This is exactly what it would look like.

1b. Leonard Williams

His renaissance continues right where he left off last season.  At 31, he again is on track to match his career-best numbers in all the important stats: sacks, pressures, tackles for loss, passes defensed and solo tackles.

Opposing offenses give him extra attention and still cannot contain him.

Mike Macdonald – a coach who does not dole out praise liberally – recently said “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.” 

Through four games, the Seahawk defense has generated a 25.3% pressure rate (good for #5 overall in the NFL) while only blitzing on 14.9% of plays (#31 in the NFL!).

Williams is a big part of the reason why.  Getting effective pressure early in the season like this allows Mike Macdonald to not need to reveal his entire blitz package so early.  He is able to keep his cards close to the vest as the season progresses and save them for key moments.

Williams has always lived on the lower end of the NFL’s top 10 inside linemen.  He is highly valued around the league but his tremendous skillset and athleticism always left you wanting a little more from him in games.

No longer.  He has arrived, and the defense would not be the same without him.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Plug in his stats and project them over a season and he is on course to top his career-best season from last year.

That is to be expected.  A top-20 draft pick making good and getting better every season of his rookie contract should not surprise anyone.

What makes it so impressive is he is doing it while breaking in his third consecutive Offensive Coordinator in as many seasons.  Added to that, he is working with a new Quarterback.  Added to that, the running game is not hitting on all cylinders yet, putting pressure on the passing game to excel.  Added to that, Smith-Njigba is clearly the top target with D.K. Metcalf gone, so he is getting the bulk of Defensive Coordinator attention.

If all that doesn’t get him into the team MVP conversation, this will:

He is on track to record 77 first downs.  He had a fantastic 57 last year.  He is on pace to be a top-five player in the NFL in first downs and moving the chains is incredibly valuable.

Rookie of the Quarter

1. Grey Zabel

Zabel might be the best example in recent Seahawks history of Occam’s Razor.

The Offensive Line badly needed an upgrade.  At Left Guard if possible.

If that person could be strong enough, talented enough and available when they picked in the first round of the draft, it would be the perfect intersection of talent, value and need.

And if he could snap into the starting Offensive Line from Day One of camp like a three-year NFL veteran, that would be great.

Oh, and if he could live up to all the expectations and maul some people while keeping his Quarterback clean, that would be great too.

Zabel has been all that and more.  A seamless fit on the team.  It’s almost as if he was fated to be a Seahawk in this offense.

Probably the greatest compliment he gets is little to no coverage in broadcasts, except to point out his effort and great play.

In a game so competitive that major roster shuffling is a regular occurrence, it is rarely simple enough to just make a pick and count on a guy for the next 5-10 years without giving it a second thought.

Zabel and the Seahawks are doing just that.

2. Tory Horton

The fifth-round pick has turned whispers of being the Steal of the Draft in camp to real production on the field.

Three touchdowns in his first four NFL games is fantastic production.

Two of them came early on when the game was still contested, making them more valuable.

One of them is the 95-yard punt return that showcased his speed and ability to attack defenders and not just elude them.

It is just a glimpse of that production he can have if he keeps living up to his athletic potential.

He is also doing this while only having a split share of snaps.  Horton currently stands at 106 offensive snaps, only 44% of all the snaps on offense.

Horton has not replaced D.K. Metcalf.  But he most assuredly has eased concerns over where some of Metcalf’s production is going to come from.

3. Elijah Arroyo

Arroyo’s potential is well known by fans who have watched him since his college football days.

He delivered two key plays in a Week Four win against the Cardinals.  The first, being available on a scramble drill and taking advantage of being covered by 265-lb Josh Sweat.

The second, using a quick step to force Budda Baker to commit Pass Interference in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown.

As he and Darnold get acclimated to one another, Arroyo’s production will only grow — and he is going to get more opportunities to make an impact on offense.

In the meantime, he is doing some of the unseen chores that Tight Ends do:  be a lead blocker on wide zone runs and draw coverage attention to open the middle of the field for dump offs or Quarterback runs.

Successes

1. Defensive Continuity

Something we can take for granted at times is year-to-year greatness in one area of the team.

Things change quickly in the NFL, even when teams carry a large chunk of their coaches and players into the new year.  There is nothing automatic about it.  Every yard of success must be earned.  Just ask shell-shocked Ravens fans about the state of their current defense – bottom-five in most categories.

The Seahawks defense has not changed as the force that is pushing this team forward.

They currently surrender under 90 rushing yards per game and stand #2 in the NFL by conceding only 16.8 points per game.

They have not surrendered a rushing touchdown and are only giving up 3.6 yards per rush.

And it needs to be said again – they are the fifth-best defense in getting pressures while being next-to-last in blitzing rate.  That is coaching matching talent.

Last season it took some time and some in-season personnel adjustments to reach their potential.  This year, they have come out of the gate firing and supported the offense in a fine way.

They have not peaked yet.  Some things need work (see below).  But overall, the core of this team is in place and it gives them a chance to win any game.

2. The Roster Moves’ Impact on the Field

Core players Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have all moved on.

Making such dramatic roster moves carries a degree of risk that not all General Managers have the stomach for.  That is a lot of voltage going out the door.

What has kept this team on track, even moving forward?

A shared vision from top to bottom.  A commitment to lower-maintenance personalities in the locker room.  Placing a premium on finding players and coaches that fit what they want to do.

Veteran signings Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Lawrence.  A draft class that is already paying dividends.

These players are unified in their belief, and they want to be here, helping the team be as successful as they possibly can.

You can even point to far smaller moves garnering on-field results.

Committing to Josh Jobe instead of playing the Restricted Free Agent tender game and giving him snaps that he very clearly is earning.

Claiming Derion Kendrick has already proven a very shrewd move.

Not being afraid to give Tory Horton – a rookie and presumptive #3 Wide Receiver – punt return duties.

Getting standout special teams play from Chazz Surratt and D’Anthony Bell.

The roster is littered with ‘clear wins’ and many who have room to add even more than what they have in the first quarter.

Also not to be ignored is the team’s trust in their medical staff for guidance in their decisions.

Let’s hold off awarding John Schneider the same accolades he got for building the Legion of Boom teams.  But if this offseason is any indication, he is on his way to building another team that is deep, talented and very hard to beat.

3. The Blowout of the Saints at Lumen

The Saints are 0-4 and nobody is confusing them with a contender.

Let’s be clear though:  In all three of their other games (against San Francisco, Arizona and Buffalo) they put up a worthy fight.  They are not some sad-sack franchise who is already booking vacation flights and tee times for January (that is Tennessee’s lot in life right now).

The last time the Seahawks beat an opponent by as many as 31 points, it was 2020 when they pasted the New York Jets 40-3.  In that game, it was not well in hand until the end of the third quarter.  Against the Saints, the Seahawks took a 38-6 lead into halftime and were able to pull starters in the third quarter to rest them up for the upcoming Thursday Night game against a division rival.

Offense.  Defense.  Special Teams.  Everything was working.

And it was at home, where long-suffering fans were able to serenade their team and relax and celebrate a win before the game was half over.

It was glorious.

Challenges

1. The Running Game & Running Back Usage

For as much as we talk about the vision of this team, a big chunk of it remains an open question.

Brady Henderson recently pointed out that the Seahawks lead the NFL in runs with zero or negative gain.

They are not even supplementing the numbers by passing to the Running Backs to give them touches.  Last year Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet had 105 targets between them.  This year so far?  Nine.  That averages out to about 38 over the course of a season.  While there is a little silver lining to this stat, they currently are being criminally underused in this area.

Those dog December days of cold temperatures and rainy conditions will require the team to be able to get first downs and wear defenses out while eating clock.  If they cannot find yards on the ground, it could mean a quick exit come playoff time.

This core principle of the offense needs some production soon.

It is not going to get easier.  In the next four games, the Seahawks will face the current #4, 5, 11 and 13 rushing defenses.

Adding to the challenge is the placing of Fullback Robbie Ouzts on Injured Reserve, as he was establishing himself in the running game in a big way early on.

They must win the matchup in this critical area.  Or at least force it to a draw so the defense does not consistently flood coverage and disrupt the passing game.

2. Riq Woolen & the Corner Situation

Entering a contract year, following two seasons of mixed play, Woolen has a lot of pressure on him to perform.

Once again, the results have been mixed.  Woolen has suffered the curse of the cornerback, particularly in the opener against San Francisco:  Play good and not much is noticed.  Make mistakes at key moments and you get all the attention and have no one to blame but yourself.  It can be a lonely position on the field at times.

It could be that Woolen just does not fit Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme and moving on is the best option.  Woolen is a great instinctual player and it always appears like he is being asked to think more than react.  At times that hurts him.  He has given up key pass interference penalties and failed to high point or otherwise attack the football.  He seems to be committed to improving his tackling from prior seasons but it has not improved enough to offset the other troubles he has had.

So now we are in a spot where his name is being prominently mentioned as a trade candidate.  Once you get to that point, it may be best for everyone involved to part ways.

The Seahawks do have quality depth at Cornerback.  But being able to adequately fill in for a couple of quarters or a full game is one thing.  Being promoted to starter and being consistently adequate is another.

Given how critically important the two Woolen mistakes in the San Francisco game were, it may not be an overstatement to say how they handle the situation at Cornerback going forward may determine how deep they get in the playoffs.

3. Defending Tight Ends

Currently the Seahawks are one of the NFL’s worst defenses when covering Tight Ends.  No team has had the opposing offense target their Tight Ends more.  Their three touchdowns conceded to Tight Ends also is the highest in the NFL currently.

Some of it can be excused a bit as just the cost of doing business.  Through four games, they have faced George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Juwan Johnson and Trey McBride.  Nobody is going to keep a lid on that group.

It cools off slightly in the second quarter, with slates against Cade Otton, Brenton Strange, Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz.

It could be argued that at 3-1 this has not been a fatal weakness.  But it still needs tightening up.

Right now, the Seahawks are a bit stuck in coverage of Tight Ends with Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas at Linebacker and Nick Emmanwori out with injury.

Is it something that they can scheme up and fine tune to get better?

Second Quarter Games

Tampa Bay (double throwbacks!)

@Jacksonville

Houston (Monday Night Football)

Bye

@Washington (Sunday Night Football)

Goals for the Second Quarter

1. Beat Tampa Bay

The Bucs are a team that may be on the Seahawks’ radar for the playoffs.

A win at home with the same level of play we have seen in the first four games would go a long way towards strengthening their confidence, hopes of landing a playoff spot and having success in the postseason.

The list of Tampa players who likely or definitely will miss the game reads like a Pro Bowl roster.  Calijah Kancey, Mike Evans, Luke Goedeke, and Bucky Irving are high-quality players.  Losing those four would hurt any team.

On the other hand, All-World Left Tackle Tristan Wirfs got his first action last week, Emeka Egbuka is settling nicely into the NFL as one of the best rookies so far this year and Vita Vea is not at all interested in helping the Seahawks improve their running game.

And Baker Mayfield.  He is becoming the player many thought he could be, and is not afraid to take hits, run and dive for yards, or will the Bucs to victory in other ways.

Taking on and defeating a mentally tough team like this at this point in the season could be just what this team needs to build on their early-season momentum.

2.  Fit Nick Emmanwori into the Defense

Emmanwori has only played a handful of snaps this year.  The Seahawks declined to put him on Injured Reserve with his ankle injury and kept the possibility open of him returning to game action earlier than the four-week window.  It has been three full weeks and he should be nearing readiness to go.

Given his use in camp and in the preseason, Mike Macdonald had a very specific role in the defense in mind for him.  While he may not be a starter that plays most snaps on defense, it was clear they were counting on Emmanwori to be a key piece of this unit.

It naturally feels like his timeline this season has been stalled.  The first quarter was likely to be a break-in period and the team would intend to give him increasing responsibilities as he learned playing NFL offenses and how to properly use his enormous size and skill.

The dream is that Emmanwori and the team have been using the downtime to study game film and get him up to speed with more than just the basics.  But there is no substitute for game action.

If he can have a similar impact on the defense that say, rookie Tory Horton has had on offense, he can be a force multiplier that creates turnovers and forces Quarterbacks into taking checkdowns to avoid either getting sacked or intercepted by him.

3. Determine What Will Best Fortify the Roster Going Forward

Several important roster decisions are coming:

• The window is now open for NFI & IR players to start practicing, most notably Christian Haynes and Johnathan Hankins
• They have a bye in Week Eight, a great time to take a breath and reassess
• The trading deadline is Tuesday Nov 4, two days after their Week Nine Sunday Night Football game in Washington

As good as John Schneider has been this off-season, he is best known in recent years for in-season moves.  He acquired Leonard Williams and Ernest Jones in consecutive seasons through trades and they have both proven to be excellent additions to the team with real, material impact on the field.  Will he strike again this year?

It does appear that there are opportunities.  The Seahawks have excellent depth currently on the roster but the chance to acquire a player that could be a difference-maker this year and potentially in future years could prove irresistible.

Another pass rusher?  A Linebacker or big Safety who can cover?  Another receiving weapon?  A Right Guard who can simply be invisible in games?

There is no doubt that John Schneider will continue being aggressive with trades.  The first quarter’s 3-1 record, great defense and establishment of Sam Darnold as a productive and affordable option at Quarterback give him plenty of justification to seek out every possible avenue to improve the team and keep the momentum going.

The standout performance of the week came from Alabama’s quarterback

It’s been an interesting last few days. The media, desperate for anyone to cling to given the disappointing performances from the big names in college football this season, have decided that Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is going to be their new poster boy.

Various pundits have talked him up with several even suggesting he could be the #1 pick next year. I watched the Oregon win at Penn State and feel this is a significant reach.

Moore is clearly physically gifted. There are throws on tape that are worthy of first round chatter. He’s well sized, has a good arm that generates easy velocity and he’s mobile. He played decently well on Saturday — but nowhere near well enough to warrant the reaction we’ve seen.

There were some inaccurate throws, at least one turnover worthy play and he looked exactly how you’d expect a naturally gifted five-star recruit with only 10 college starts to look. The desperation to find someone to talk about is going to do Moore no favours. This talented player, who is only 20-years-old, shouldn’t be talked about as a first round pick in 2026. He should be talked about as a potential high pick the year after. Let him play two seasons for Oregon. Let him learn his craft. This rush to crown him because the other players you expected to be pushing for top-10 contention are failing is irresponsible.

We’re doing this all wrong. Hyping players up too soon. Needing to create clicks for articles, views for videos and retweets for twitter. Content, content, content. The draft is big business and accurately saying the 2026 crop isn’t delivering isn’t a sexy enough storyline. The media needs a face of the draft. They’re trying to make it a player who would be best served ignoring the noise — but that’s so hard to do.

I’d also say I think Penn State are one of the most overrated teams in college football. They’ve been awful so far this season and I thought they were poor again here — so I don’t think this is anything significant that Moore, while admittedly in a hostile environment, led a vastly more talented roster with a superior Head Coach to a road win.

Some have said this week Moore will go on to become the best quarterback in college football in the second half of the season. I think it could just as easily be the returning John Mateer — who is seemingly recovering very quickly from his hand injury — or Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who was the real top performer of the weekend.

As with Moore, I don’t think we should necessarily be talking about Simpson for the 2026 draft. He has four career starts. Nobody should be coming into the league with such a low level of experience. However, he’s an older player who turns 23 in December. He sat for three years at Alabama biding his time. We’ll see what that means for his pro-prospects and it’ll likely depend on the feedback he gets from the league. It’d be good to see him do what Michael Penix Jr did and spend two years playing for Kalen DeBoer.

To me Simpson looks like a talent. On the road against Georgia he attacked the middle of the field with accuracy and aggression. He was tremendous in the red zone. He’s a very decisive quarterback with a fantastic release and no delayed motion. He gets the ball out quickly, on time and to the right place. He really had one bad throw five minutes into the game, forcing things on the run when he should’ve thrown the ball away, but other than that he played very well.

It sounds like such an obvious thing but so many college quarterbacks don’t drop and set properly with the right footwork or base. Simpson has it down — and it enables him to throw with a strong foundation in the lower body and deliver with accuracy.

Here’s a good example of everything mechanically just working:

He’s not veering all over the place as he drops or drifting in the pocket. Simpson is very efficient with his footwork, steps into the throw with base and just rockets it over the middle. This is a NFL play.

His arm is good and he can drive the ball into tight windows, yet has also shown he can deliver with touch to all levels. There’s a level of poise on tape and he doesn’t get flustered under pressure and he passes with good anticipation. There are not many players who can do this under intense pressure:

That’s just about as good a throw as you’ll see. He gets lit up as the ball is delivered and he knows it’s coming. Yet he stands tall, throws with fantastic accuracy, velocity and timing and makes an incredibly difficult completion to the left sideline.

Throwing on the run isn’t a problem for him and he’s a useful playmaker with his legs. You can imagine him being a big threat on bootlegs and he’ll extend drives with critical runs. He’s also not a slave to the play-call. He can improvise — and that doesn’t always mean crazy scrambling or being Brett Favre. It’s feel, instinct — sensing a developing situation and adjusting — as he did on this redzone touchdown:

In the Georgia game in particular he just didn’t make risky decisions yet equally didn’t appear conservative. His incomplete throws were typically aggressive ‘my receiver or nobody’s getting this’ type of plays. The defenders weren’t being given much of an opportunity to make a play on the ball. He excelled on third down, with Alabama going 13/19 on the night. That’s a big indicator for quarterbacks.

For the season so far he has 13 total touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now he has a big win at Georgia on his CV. Can Alabama go on from here? He will be well tested — the next few games are Tennessee (H), South Carolina (A), LSU (H) and Oklahoma (H). Keep winning and people will end up talking about him.

Personality wise he comes across a little bit like Kirk Cousins. His best friend is Tyler Booker, who we know was highly respected at Alabama for his character.

DeBoer, for all the criticism he’s received, has shown he can develop quarterbacks. I really like what I’m seeing from Simpson. This is a player with a pro future. Now it’s about showing this year and probably next year what his ceiling can be.

Simpson was the standout QB at the weekend and looks like a possible top player in the making. With him, Alabama can still have a better season than many expected after that week one pounding by Florida State.

The top receiver in the 2026 class?

Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell is easily the best receiver I’ve watched this season. His body control, gliding running style, ability to get open and propensity to make difficult catches is unmatched so far among draft eligible receivers.

He has a long, lean frame (listed at 6-5, 200lbs). If you don’t jam him at the line he can be virtually unstoppable. Against Mississippi State last weekend he could line up in the slot, run with suddenness to the space over the middle and it was a simple pitch-and-catch. Defenders aren’t quick enough to stick with him unless they rough him up.

His touchdown came from the slot, running the seam and with no contact to disrupt his route, he simply ran by the defender in coverage and then contorted his body to adjust to the ball and make a catch in the end zone.

On the next drive, he had a 32-yard reception in double coverage where he somehow twisted his body in mid-air while falling backwards to make a tremendously difficult catch.

He did have another downfield bomb for a touchdown called back for OPI. However, with Tennessee trailing 34-27 with under five minutes to go, he hung in the air on an in-cutting route to convert a 4th and 4. The pass was thrown behind Brazell, so he had to adjust to the ball. They scored a few plays later, before winning in overtime. He made it possible.

I also watched his game against Georgia recently, where he made multiple stunning plays and scored three touchdowns. He has 531 receiving yards in five games with seven touchdowns and only one dropped pass (in week one).

Testing always matters at this position but he looks plenty quick enough. You might be able to argue you want to see a little more explosion on his release and there will be concern that he will get roughed up in the NFL a lot more than we’re seeing here. Can he handle that?

At the moment though, he is listed as WR1 on my early horizontal board ahead of USC’s Makai Lemon and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson.

Other quarterback notes

— Garrett Nussmeier fell back into bad habits at the weekend, as LSU slumped to a disappointing defeat to Ole Miss. The Rebels were far better on the day and Nussmeier was given very little in the way of help.

His touchdown pass was very lucky — a red zone throw straight to a defender. The receiver somehow flicked the ball out of his grasp allowing a different receiver to get the rebound. It was a good play by the two receivers, not so much by the quarterback.

He did throw an interception at the start of the second quarter. It was an awful decision and a forced throw into a lot of traffic. It’s the kind of play he needed to kick out of his game this year:

Garrett Nussmeier now with 7 TDs to 3 INTs on the season.

Last year, he tied for the SEC lead in interceptions with Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck at 12 apiece.pic.twitter.com/F0eb6F41L9

— Jamie Shaw (@JamieShaw5) September 27, 2025

On 2nd and 20 with 7:31 left in the first half he threw another extremely dangerous pick into double coverage that could’ve been picked off. The camera panned to his offensive coordinator in the booth pulling a pained expression.

In fairness to Nussmeier, it’s hard to know what LSU are even trying to do on offense. They had -24 rushing yards in the first half. The O-line stinks. They don’t have the usual plethora of great weapons. The quarterback was better in the second half but then the defense collapsed to enable the Tigers to be outplayed and out-coached.

I’m not sure we’re seeing enough to justify Nussmeier as a first round pick. These are the big games he has to win, be a difference maker and lead — even when the rest of the team is subpar. The bad picks are still there. He’s such a good technical player, makes a lot of NFL-level throws and he’s a better athlete than some realise — but is he a first round quarterback? I’m not convinced.

— Notre Dame’s hammering of Arkansas led to a coaching change but surprisingly, quarterback Taylen Green still played fairly well.

He had a great throw down the seam 30 seconds into the game. Green had a three step drop, no hesitation, showed great velocity in his arm and placed the pass right between three defenders:

Green also had a big run down the right sideline. Aside from that, he had little chance with Notre Dame just embarrassing the Arkansas defense. They led 42-13 at half-time with Jeremiyah Love scoring four times before the break. The tackling was an abomination, as was the effort. Most of Notre Dame’s touchdowns were farcically easy.

Green’s interception was just a hopeful loft into the end zone with five minutes left, trailing 56-13. It was a bad throw but really, it’s almost surprising he was still on the field at that stage. There’s definitely talent here and you can see why the NFL is interested.

— There’s talk that John Mateer could make it back for the game against Texas on October 11th. If that happens, he finishes the season and Oklahoma keep winning, he has an opportunity to be a very high pick. Perhaps even the top pick. His dynamism, playmaking quality, personality, explosive traits and timely similarities to Baker Mayfield could propel him into a range most currently aren’t projecting.

QBR stats

Taylen Green — 87.6
Ty Simpson — 84.2
Dante Moore — 83.0
Fernando Mendoza — 82.1
Carson Beck — 81.9
Sawyer Robertson — 77.9
Garrett Nussmeier — 76.4
Haynes King — 75.5
John Mateer — 75.5
LaNorris Sellers — 66.1
Sam Leavitt — 64.1
Drew Allar — 48.4
Cade Klubnik — 45.0

An example of why the media doesn’t know what to do with this draft class

The Athletic today published a mock draft. You can see it here. I appreciate in some instances writers are obligated to produce these things. Yet if you don’t have enough information and you’re just putting names out there to fill in the gaps, there is no benefit to this. In fact with players likely reading this as it’s an Athletic piece, they’re likely to be deceived by bad info that can influence how they view their future.

There’s so much about the mock that is objectionable. Kadyn Proctor is not a top-10 pick. How he is still being projected in this range given the way he’s played so far this season is incredible. Isaiah World is not a top-10 pick. I haven’t got either graded in the top two rounds currently.

Kenyon Sadiq is listed as a top-15 pick. He’s a talented tight end but he is not a top-15 pick. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game once this season and that was against Oregon State. I really like Domonique Orange but he is in no way, shape or form a top-25 pick. Xavier Chaplin isn’t a first rounder at all and neither is LT Overton. Connor Lew isn’t a first rounder or even the best draft eligible center.

You’re really putting Fernando Mendoza as the #2 pick with the offense he’s playing in after a handful of games? Or keeping LaNorris Sellers at #6 when it’s clear for all to see he needs more time?

And there’s even a continued first round placing for Arch Manning, 28th overall (because I guess you need to still mention him for clicks).

No Dani Dennis-Sutton. No Chris Brazell II.

Let’s just not do this. Draft media would be better served just being honest about this class. It’s very difficult currently to find first rounders. We don’t need to force out bad mock drafts, with names getting by on familiarity and certainly not performance. I don’t want to pile on too much but that’s one of the worst mocks I’ve ever read and it’s OK some years to just hold off for a while. We don’t ‘need’ them on October 2nd.

A final thought

It continues to be such a challenging draft class to analyse, with a bunch of players with potential who simply aren’t delivering at a top level in college. This has been, so far, the most underwhelming year of scouting I’ve done. This doesn’t mean I want the Seahawks to do anything reckless but I am inclined to think a little bit of aggression before the trade deadline would be totally understandable.

Some interesting thoughts here on the developing situation with Riq Woolen. Please do check out my latest conversation on Puck Sports!

Hi all, usual request on a Tuesday. Please watch my latest Bump & Stacy appearance below and if possible, head over to the YouTube video and leave a like and a comment. I would massively appreciate it if you could do that.

Also, here is the latest Seahawks Collective podcast which continues to be an hour I love to do every Tuesday:

“Pete, after Geno’s third interception he now leads the NFL (in interceptions). Was there any consideration in going with Kenny at all?”

Yes, Pete Carroll was asked whether he considered benching Geno Smith for Kenny Pickett during the Raiders’ loss to the Bears on Sunday.

My immediate thought after hearing that question was this — perhaps it’s time some people gave John Schneider a bit more credit?

I won’t hold my breath on that. Smith’s backers seem to have developed a loyalty usually reserved for Taylor Swift fans, or ‘Swifties’. Even now they refuse to cede any ground, only offering couched support of Sam Darnold whilst saying very little about Smith’s struggles in Vegas.

Nothing sums up the absurdity of this group more than their continued talk of Darnold being ‘pressure sensitive’ — the kind of pseudo-intellectual term that has infiltrated the sport these days.

According to PFF, Smith had 215 drop-backs under pressure compared to Darnold’s 263 last season. Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio was 7/13, with Darnold’s at 13/6. Seattle’s new quarterback had the third most big time throws under pressure in 2024, behind only Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. His 11 turnover worthy plays under pressure were two fewer than Smith’s 13.

Two bad games at the end of last season, where there was plenty of blame to go around, created an illusion as to how Darnold performed during a 14-win campaign. Meanwhile, faith in Smith’s credentials as a top-10 quarterback has become such a hill to die on for some it has virtually come to define certain people.

Thus, Schneider became persona non grata for his decision to move on. There’s growing evidence however that he made an inspired move.

Smith has always been a streaky quarterback. Since his especially strong start in 2022, ending after the game in Munich, he’s played 44 games for Seattle and Las Vegas. He has a 62/39 ratio for touchdowns and interceptions. His QBR is a lowly 52.1 since week 10 of 2022. No player has more interceptions in the entire NFL since Smith replaced Russell Wilson.

Smith has thrown seven interceptions in four games this season. Four of his interceptions were thrown when not under pressure — the most in the league when not pressured. His QBR (43.1) is ranked 25th in the league. The Raiders are 1-3 and struggling. Fans are turning quickly, as are former franchise greats.

Nothing about this screams top-10 quarterback, despite the various claims online and the numerous podcasts, tweets and ESPN segments detailing why Seattle’s decision to swap Smith for Darnold was unwise.

I’d also argue there are striking similarities between Smith and Russell Wilson in how they departed the Seahawks. There’s no doubt the very-online ‘Let Russ Cook’ movement contributed to a player feeling increasingly that he should be the focal point of everything. He wanted to be the main man and to play for a preferred coach. Once he got those things, though, it didn’t work out as intended.

Now look at Smith. In a preposterous recent interview with ESPN he claimed he “really didn’t fit the culture” in Seattle, adding, “I finally got my team” upon moving to Las Vegas.

He got to go and play with his preferred coach. “I know what he’s going to bring to the table, and I know that he’s going to mean what he says. That loyalty and honesty mean a lot to me” said Smith — in what felt like a bit of a dig at the situation he left behind.

I’d also suggest, anecdotally, that perhaps the vociferous online support from some sections of the media and Seahawks Twitter (we know Smith is very active on social media) created the same kind of feeling that ‘Let Russ Cook’ did to the mentality of his predecessor.

Having got what he wanted, as with Wilson, it’s already looking like it might go the same way. Take yourself to the AFC West and then watch things crash and burn. He might find that having finally got ‘his team’, that team won’t want him any more unless his performance improves dramatically.

Meanwhile, back in Seattle, Darnold is thriving four games into the season. There’s no guarantee it’ll continue, or that Darnold will take the Seahawks to any kind of promise land in the future. It’s quite difficult at the moment though to not judge Schneider’s quarterback decision very positively.

He traded away a player who is currently struggling, wanted a new contract and turns 35 on the 10th October for a third round pick. He then signed a cheaper 28-year-old quarterback, who doesn’t turn 29 until next June, and that player has hit the ground running. The Seahawks are younger, cheaper and — based on the evidence so far — better at the position.

It doesn’t just stop with the quarterback though. Let’s look at another much discussed move — the DK Metcalf trade. Many suggested this would have a major negative impact on the Seahawks. Losing Metcalf would mean nobody to draw attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, impacting his ability to make plays. The Seahawks would be left with an impotent looking offense.

Smith-Njigba is currently the second most productive receiver in the league. He’s shown absolutely no need to have Metcalf on the field to hold his hand. If it wasn’t for the record-pace of Puka Nacua in LA, Smith-Njigba would be leading the NFL in receiving yards. The pair are the only two receivers averaging 100 yards a game so far. Rather than hold back JSN, he’s thriving.

The Seahawks have 14 completed passes over 20-yards — joint fourth most in the NFL. They have three +40-yard completions, tied for second most. Metcalf has had a solid start to his career in Pittsburgh, especially given Aaron Rodgers’ limitations as a downfield passer these days, but it’s fair to question whether he’s being missed in Seattle — certainly for the $33m a year salary he’s getting from the Steelers.

The Seahawks were able to turn Metcalf into a second round pick (promising rookie Elijah Arroyo) and save a fortune, with the evidence so far that they are not worse off for the decision. Again, isn’t this something the GM should deserve more praise for?

Now let’s do the offensive line. Some people became so irate in March, including within local media, that they absolutely hammered the Seahawks for not signing any veteran interior offensive linemen. We heard how it’d be a catastrophe if they didn’t sign a player like Teven Jenkins (who’s played two snaps for the Browns so far this year) or Mekhi Becton (who played very poorly for the Chargers in weeks two and three, before missing the Giants game).

The Seahawks understandably chose not to outbid the Vikings when they went above and beyond to bring in Will Fries without giving him a medical exam, fresh off recovery from a serious leg injury. Minnesota also signed Ryan Kelly. The general feeling was, why weren’t the Seahawks being aggressive like this?

Well, after four weeks, the Vikings’ line is a disaster. They’ve given up a 13.1% sack rate so far — the fourth highest by any team since data began being collected seven years ago. Kelly is suffering with concussions. Fries has given up eight pressures — one more than Anthony Bradford — with a salary difference of $16m.

The Seahawks’ offensive line meanwhile, while certainly not flawless, seems to have taken a major step forward this year:

Seahawks Pass Protection Rankings:

10th Pressure Rate (31.5%)
9th Pass Block Grade, PFF
13th Pass Block Efficiency, PFF
9th Sacks Allowed pic.twitter.com/iycv01wuxB

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) September 29, 2025

Further improvements will be required in the future and Bradford’s spot at right guard certainly feels less than assured. Yet Schneider’s decision to show restraint in free agency, appoint proper coaches and spend the #18 pick on Grey Zabel is paying dividends so far.

Let’s keep going. What about the appointment of Klint Kubiak to replace Ryan Grubb? This would’ve been a joint venture with the Head Coach but they simply had to get this one right. The catastrophe of the Grubb experiment put a lot of pressure on the Seahawks to not repeat the error. They had to avoid Macdonald being placed with the wrong offensive partner for a second year in a row.

There is still plenty of room for growth on the offense but they have the sixth ranked unit per DVOA after four games. That’s a great start given the amount of change this year. Kubiak’s staff have also done wonders to improve the O-line performance, settle Darnold into his new team and incorporate multiple rookies into impact roles. I’d say they got this one spot on.

Add in the appointment of Mike Macdonald as his hand-picked replacement for Carroll 18 months ago and really, Seattle’s GM deserves a lot more credit than he’s getting.

The point of this piece isn’t to say Schneider doesn’t make mistakes. All GM’s make mistakes. Howie Roseman used the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft on receiver Jalen Raegor. The player taken 22nd overall was Justin Jefferson.

However, Schneider received a not insignificant amount of criticism from fans and media for his moves in the off-season this year. Right now, it looks like he got every big call right. You could even say 2025 was one of Schneider’s best ever off-seasons.

With a speculative tweet earlier today from Ian Rapoport suggesting the Seahawks might be open to trading Riq Woolen, attention now turns to what they might be able to get in return.

Draft compensation is likely to be minimal. Whenever journalists are offering ‘come and get him’ pleas in the media, value is not going to be high. It feels like the Seahawks are ready to move on and will take the best offer they can get.

A deal involving a pick wouldn’t likely get much other than a late rounder. A sixth maybe? Something minimal anyway. A more attractive option could be to find a player-for-player arrangement.

Here’s my suggestion — Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd.

This is a name we’ve discussed before. Lloyd started the season splitting snaps with Ventrell Miller before Jacksonville decided to go with the more experienced player. It’s worth noting that both linebackers played well when they were on the field.

Lloyd’s contract expires in the off-season and the Jaguars have a choice to make down the line. Would they want to pay to keep Lloyd? Is it inevitable next season they just go with Miller, who’d have one year left on his rookie deal?

Jacksonville’s new GM is James Gladstone, a former member of the LA Rams’ front office. The Rams opted not to pay Ernest Jones and instead traded him away to the Titans for a late-round pick swap before his contract year. It felt like a philosophical choice not to give big money to a linebacker. The Rams’ current starting linebackers have cap hits of $1.1m and $973,000. If Gladstone shares Les Snead’s philosophy to not pay for this position, he might think they’re better off going with the cheaper Miller and getting what they can for Lloyd.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are struggling at cornerback. Tyson Campbell has given up the sixth-most receiving yards (138) on downfield passes. The fifth-year veteran is also one of nine cornerbacks to have allowed multiple downfield touchdowns.

Their other starting cornerback, Jarrian Jones, has allowed seven completions for 85 yards on 11 overall passes thrown in his direction. He’s also given up a touchdown.

They’re using Travis Hunter as an occasional corner in specific situations but he’s not a full-time option there, given how many snaps he’s playing on offense.

Would the Jags be prepared to take a look at Woolen? Might they be more prepared to pay a cornerback if it works out, rather than a linebacker?

From the Seahawks perspective it does feel a little bit like Tyrice Knight isn’t fully healthy. He’s been sharing time with Drake Thomas. Is there room for another addition at linebacker? Arguably yes. We saw how important this position is to the Seahawks last season.

A former first round pick, Lloyd has played well this year and last. There’s a bit of an Ernest Jones feel to all of this, where a linebacker is perhaps under-appreciated where he is but can thrive elsewhere. Having more depth and quality at this position might further bolster Seattle’s defense.

So it’s a swap of players both on expiring contracts. Woolen for Lloyd.

(Please note — this article was written before Lloyd had two interceptions and a sack/fumble against the 49ers, so any trade feels decidedly less likely after that. However, at least it shows it wasn’t an insane idea to try and acquire Lloyd!)

Another option could be to see if a package including Woolen might be able to entice the Miami Dolphins. They didn’t force a turnover in their first three games. If they lose to the Jets, there’s a possibility of embracing major change in Miami. Would they consider dealing Jaylen Waddle? Would they rent you Jaelan Phillips? Or Bradley Chubb?

The Saints have needed help at cornerback for a while. Would they consider a swap for one of Rashid Shaheed or Chris Olave?

Trey Hendrickson would obviously be a very attractive addition for the Seahawks (and many other teams). Yet the Bengals would almost certainly want a quality pick to get him — and would be more likely, you’d imagine, to keep him until nearer the deadline. There’s a good chance their season will be over by the time Joe Burrow is healthy again — but sitting at 2-1, surely it’s too soon to make that call? Unless they’re blown away by an offer.

It’s felt for a long time now that Mike Macdonald doesn’t entirely trust Riq Woolen. His dramatically fluctuating play and frustrating moments are occasionally offset by flashes of quality. Combined with his exceptional physical skills, that has bought him more time than others would get.

It feels like time has run out though. The Cardinals game, where he gave away costly penalties, seems to be the final straw.

The report above doesn’t get out unless the Seahawks want it to get out. This is a plea to the league to make an offer.

It’s a shame that it’s come to this but Woolen is an unreliable player playing for a coach running a defense that requires consistency and everyone doing their job to connect things together.

They won’t get much, if anything. Which makes you wonder what happens if offers are not forthcoming. If teams show interest they’ll likely take what they can get and move on.

The bigger question then will be whether there is a corresponding move in the pipeline to add a piece to the Seahawks. Perhaps a pass rusher, linebacker or another weapon.

It’s a ritual for many people. The day after the game you log on to PFF to check the grades. Or if you don’t have a subscription, you see them posted on Twitter or a forum. It’s part and parcel of following your team. PFF grades for years have been cited and discussed. Their usage has become widespread.

According to PFF’s website:

Every primetime NFL TV broadcast, is supported by PFF’s services in one form or the other. College TV broadcasts are rapidly following suit. NBC’s Emmy-winning Sunday Night Football franchise, has led the charge using PFF’s services to not only prep SNF analyst & PFF owner, Cris Collinsworth – but also to supports SNF’s research dept., studio programming, graphics team and VOD content.

The teams also use the data and work with PFF for their scouting services.

Are we right, however, to cling to their grades as much as we do?

Over the last couple of seasons I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched a game only to be baffled by the way they’ve graded things. It’s as if they’ve watched a totally different game.

For example, we could all see the major impact Ernest Jones Jr had on Seattle’s defense last year. According to PFF though, he didn’t play well at all. Twice he graded in the 40’s and five times in the 50’s. They believe he only had one great game (the loss to the Rams) and two good games (the rematch with the Rams and the first game against Arizona).

It didn’t make any sense but this example is only scratching the surface.

Leonard Williams finished last season on an absolute tear. Arguably, nobody was playing better than he was at his position. Yet if you average out his grades for the final five games of the season, he gets a 73.2. It’s not bad by any means but hardly seems to fairly represent just how impactful and disruptive he was.

This has followed into this season. To my eye at least — and I’m sure many will agree — Williams has been a terror for opponents. He has three sacks in four games, 11 pressures and five hurries. According to ESPN, he has a 48% run-stop win-rate (good for sixth in the league). He clearly looks like Seattle’s best player, at least on defense.

However, PFF reckons he had one very good game against Pittsburgh (82.5) and has otherwise been ‘OK’. His other three games get an average grade of 67.3

I’m sure people will try to explain this away by saying perhaps PFF is accounting for penalties (he’s had three for the season) or missed tackles (also three). Yet I feel like I know what I’m watching — a great player, playing his best ball, bossing the line of scrimmage and playing at an elite level.

Don’t take my word for it. Mike Macdonald said on the radio today, “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.”

Well, according to PFF, there are 15 defensive tackles playing better than he is. That includes powerhouse stars such as Teair Tart, Tim Settle, Eddie Goldman, Poona Ford and Jowon Briggs.

That simply doesn’t pass the smell test in the slightest.

Let’s move on to Josh Jobe — another player who looked like he played very well against the Steelers and Saints, only to receive grades of 59.6 and 48.8 respectively. I tweeted out during the game last week that there can’t be many cornerbacks playing better than he is through three games. Silly me, there’s actually 47 cornerbacks playing better than he is according to PFF.

Now onto Sam Darnold. PFF had him graded as the top quarterback in football after the hammering of New Orleans. I thought his performance against Arizona was his best so far — a complete performance if you will. He made smart plays, he had a big run for a first down, he had a game-winning drive including a big-time throw to set up the field goal and he didn’t turn the ball over.

Apparently none of this matters because actually this was his worst performance of the season according to PFF by a considerable margin. He was graded at a 73.6. For comparison, he got an 82.6 against the 49ers in week one.

As Brady Henderson noted today, Darnold was 7/8 for 144 yards and a touchdown on passes 10+ yards downfield last night. He had a 69.2% completion percentage. His QBR was a 75.1 (as an average mark, that score would have him fourth in the NFL). Brian Baldinger discussed some of his ‘perfect’ throws in a video today. Even if you want to ding Darnold for the three sacks conceded, which seems unfair given on at least one of them the left tackle just got beat off the edge, is that really enough to undermine all the good things about his performance to warrant easily his worst grade of the season?

Meanwhile, Devon Witherspoon gave up eight completions on eight targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF data. When he was thrown at, the quarterback rating was 147.4. He missed a tackle too. His grade? 78.1. They are saying he had a better game than Darnold.

What are we doing here?

It’s getting to the point where I’m starting to doubt what I’ve seen every game. Instead of going all-in on what I think I saw — from Darnold, Williams and others — I’m now seeing the PFF grades and assuming they’re seeing something I haven’t.

I can’t be alone in doing that — and I’m really beginning to think we give PFF too much attention, too much respect and too much credence.

One of the big problems I have is with the wide range of the grades on offer. How can you grade from 0-100? Surely it should be a far smaller range. How can Derrion Kendrick be a 90.3 against the Saints but Jobe, who also appeared to play well, be a 48.8? Kendrick gave up 50% of his targets, Jobe gave up 63.6%. Is a 40-point difference per PFF really justified?

Also, how do they work out the overall grades? As I noted on Wednesday, the Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has been given a massive 90.1 overall grade through four games. However, here are his game-by-game grades so far:

Alabama A&M — 94.1
Arkansas State — 71.4
Ole Miss — 69.7
Memphis — 78.7

How does one great performance against lowly Alabama A&M prop up the three other games? Further to that, Green leads all draft eligible quarterbacks for turnover worthy plays (seven in four games). How does that still warrant an elite grade?

You can go further. Who is even delivering the grades? Why are they required to rush through their observations to get the grades out ‘asap’ rather than taking their time? Do we really need the grades the next morning? Can’t it wait at least 48 hours? Why is there not more of an explanation behind some of the more head-scratching grades?

There have been numerous high-profile layoffs from the company and this article from last year titled, ‘Pro Football Focus’s Dysfunction Comes at the Worst Possible Time‘ lifts the lid on a company that has had some struggles at the top recently. It begs the question, can you trust what you’re being told?

I’m as much to blame as anyone for drawing attention to these grades. I share them, subscribe to PFF and get a lot of use out of their data collection systems. For the record, I really appreciate and respect a lot of what they continue to do. Yet I’m starting to think we need to reassess how we approach game grades.

I thought Sam Darnold was great against Arizona and refuse to accept it was his worst performance of the season. I think Leonard Williams has been an elite performer since week 12 last year and has arguably been the best defensive tackle in the league during this period. I refuse to accept he’s basically been ‘decent’ instead.

Do we need to kick the PFF habit? Do we need to pay less attention to their grades? Should we resist the urge to share and debate their scores as much as we do? I think the answer is yes. We should.

Yes, that was a frustrating fourth quarter. The Seahawks had complete control of the game, dominated the Cardinals for more than three quarters and yet somehow found a way to nearly lose.

However, I also think it’s important to focus on what should be the main takeaway — the performance of Sam Darnold.

The quarterback had a brilliant game — showing great touch, accuracy, poise, control and execution in the key moments. It was almost worth going through all of the unnecessary tension and stress to see Darnold just say to the team, ‘don’t worry — I’ve got this‘ — before delivering a critical 22-yard pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to set-up the game winning kick from Jason Myers.

This is the kind of performance that will instil confidence in team mates, coaches and fans. It’s not that Darnold needed a game like this — but it certainly doesn’t do any harm.

On top of this, kudos to Smith-Njigba for finding a way to make big plays at the end given the Cardinals did a good job keeping him out of the box score for so long. Myers also deserves credit for nailing a high-pressure kick after a critical miss moments earlier.

The fact is the Seahawks were by far the better team and flirted with throwing away all their good work through sloppiness. Riq Woolen penalties, Devon Witherspoon getting beat in coverage, the missed kick, JSN’s hold in the red-zone to nullify Zach Charbonnet’s second touchdown, Ken Walker’s habit of running into negative plays.

However, they didn’t lose. The Rams were in the exact same situation against the Eagles last Sunday — dominant for three quarters then staring at defeat. They lost, after similarly chucking away a winning position.

I’m also going to defend Klint Kubiak because he strangely is getting a decent amount of flak for ‘conservative play-calling’. With 5:44 left in the game and with a seven-point lead, this was Kubiak’s sequence:

1st down — incomplete pass
2nd down — four-yard run
3rd down — 36-yard completed pass

This isn’t conservative that late in the game — it’s pretty aggressive. It’s understandable after that why he called three more runs. They were in scoring position, needed to kill some clock and a sack would’ve pushed them out of field goal range. If Myers makes his kick, it’s a well managed situation and they win more comfortably.

There’s also a decent chance the Head Coach made the call to run the ball in that situation.

Had Kubiak called one or two passes after the 36-yard completion and Darnold was then sacked, people would’ve complained even more.

It’s also worth saying that when they needed a big play-call to win the game, he dialled up the 22-yard completion to JSN. This time Myers made his kick. So rather than criticise Kubiak — I think he should be praised. Seattle had a balanced attack, had 155 rushing yards and if it wasn’t for the flag on JSN or key defenders having a rough fourth quarter — this would’ve felt like a very accomplished game from the offense.

And it’s Kubiak’s offense that Darnold, the star of the day, is excelling in.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

The last time the Seahawks lost a game to the Arizona Cardinals, Alex Collins and Deejay Dallas were Seattle’s primary running backs.  Russell Wilson’s finger was still mending and he had just a few weeks of his Seahawks career left.

In the seven matchups since then, the Seahawks have won by an average of 8.7 points — that includes a meaningless one-point win in 2023 when Matt Prater missed what would be a game-winning field goal try as time expired.

It is fair to say that if there is one team the Seahawks have handled easily the last three seasons, it is the Cardinals.

Yet we know the Seahawks will not be taking this game lightly.  Having already lost a division game to San Francisco, they will be eager to bank a win that could potentially mean a lot later in the season.

What have we seen from the Cardinals in three games so far this year?

In going 2-1, they have had a lead in the fourth quarter in all three games but have been unable to ice the game by running the ball or sustaining drives.  This has burned them once and made their two wins much less comfortable than they should have been.

On defense, they are currently fifth in the NFL for points allowed but are 30th overall in passing yards allowed and 23rd overall in total yards allowed.  They have a ‘bend don’t break’ aesthetic to them and opponents have made some odd choices at times (the Saints gave Alvin Kamara only 13 touches in Week One and the Panthers chased the game a bit in Week Two with a crazy 55/19 pass/run split) that helped support those numbers.

The Cardinals offense is a very strange animal at the moment.  Their running game suffered a massive blow last week with James Connor getting injured.  Kyler Murray is avoiding throwing to his Wide Receivers at a ridiculous pace and comes across as half disinterested and half happy to throw his Offensive Coordinator under the bus when asked about it.

His average depth of target this year is a whopping 20% lower than his career average.

Those numbers are evidence that Murray is not pushing the ball down the field much and prefers choosing to check down at a high rate through three games.

A key note may lie in the offensive line being a bit of a train wreck so far this season:

It may get even worse for this game, with starters Johnson and Brown listed as Questionable to play and their backups (Kelvin Beachum and Will Hernandez) also listed as Questionable.

The Seahawks, with a great Defensive Line, speed and tackling at the second level and their efficient yet explosive offense would appear to match up very well with the Cardinals.

What has to happen to extend the win streak to eight games?

Bottle up Kyler Murray

We are very aware that Kyler has a skill with his legs to either extend plays or get yards when the pass rush starts to close in.  He still has that skill.

In the absence of Connor as a runner that can get the tough yards and as a pressure-release valve to dump the ball off to, the importance of keeping Kyler boxed in a bit will be greater.  If his first option is unavailable and there is not an easy target available, he gets antsy and can dance himself into sacks or other mistakes – if the pass rush is able to form that “horseshoe” around him.

The Seahawks deployed this strategy very well last year.  In two games, Murray only had 25 yards on five rushes.  He was not able to materially affect the game in a way that he is accustomed to.

How did they do it?  Strength up the middle.  It is great to have speedy pass rushers coming in from the edges.  But a particularly mobile and agile player like Murray more often gets bottled up when the interior defenders clog up the middle, moving the pocket backwards and not allowing him free lanes to move forward while he searches for targets.  And Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams have been outstanding so far this season.

Speed at the second level helps as well.  Ernest Jones, Tyrice Knight and the safeties can close quickly if Murray does get through.

The Seahawks will also have Devon Witherspoon available and we know how he can affect Murray with his speed and instincts.

The Cardinals Offensive Line is battered.

James Connor is not there to be a safety blanket.

More of this game is on Murray’s shoulders than normal.

If the Seahawks defense can keep him contained, this game has a very good chance of going their way.

Win the Tight End Battle

Through three games of the NFL schedule, the Cardinals and Seahawks are two of the worst teams at defending Tight Ends.

Their numbers conceded are similar and they both have played San Francisco and New Orleans.  I would give the Seahawks a slight edge since the Cardinals did not have to play against George Kittle and the Seahawks have also played Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals gave up a near career-best day to Ja’Tavian Sanders.

Who should the Seahawks match up A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo with on defense?

Take your pick.  Linebackers Akeen Davis-Gaither and Mack Wilson have given up 173 passing yards between the two of them and have four missed tackles.  Safety Jalen Thompson has conceded 156 yards and a 102.8 Quarterback Rating in coverage.

The Cardinals’ defenders are making it easy for Quarterbacks and Tight Ends.  All of the highlights you see against them this season are not routes run by Tight Ends with any degree of trickery or precision.  Juwan Johnson of the Saints was literally running slants and was getting chunks of yards every single time he was targeted.

I could easily see the Seahawks attacking the middle of the field liberally with Sam Darnold throwing well-timed quick strike passes to the Tight Ends until the Cardinals are forced to make some kind of adjustment.

This could literally be an area where the ‘throw to set up the run’ strategy becomes a weapon the Seahawks employ on offense.  If there are so many chances with Tight Ends running open, that will create some pliability on the defense, and Zach Charbonnet will have chances to run roughshod like he did in Week Fourteen last year with a career-best 134 yards and two touchdowns.  Ken Walker can also take advantage of gaps in the flat for dump-off passes with the Tight Ends clearing the zone.

On the other side, Tyrice Knight is the sore spot in coverage on defense for the Seahawks.  He currently has allowed a perfect completion percentage, 117 yards and a 118.7 Quarterback rating in coverage.  He is far better moving forward than backward, like a lot of Linebackers.  It is no wonder that Drake Thomas has cut into his snaps on defense at times.  If the Seahawks allow Knight to be isolated in coverage – particularly with McBride – that will be an issue.

Trey McBride is the Cardinals’ biggest weapon and Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks need to have a plan for him.  As we talked about above, Kyler Murray targets him far more than the Wide Receivers.  With all due respect to Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson, nobody moves the chains like McBride.

In Week Twelve last year, McBride burned the Seahawks for 12 catches for 133 yards and eight first downs.  Two weeks later, the Seahawks cut those numbers down to 7 catches for 70 yards and four first downs.

How did they do it?  They trusted their Defensive Backs to win one-on-one and gave McBride extra attention.

Earlier in the game, Ernest Jones had dropped into an underneath spot and picked Kyler Murray when he did not see him.

A minute later, Murray is looking for McBride and sees Jones drifting back again and has to go to another receiver.

Have a look at the play.

The Seahawks bracket McBride with Julian Love and Ernest Jones.  Murray still has the sting of the interception a minute prior and turns away from McBride and makes an ill-advised throw to Zay Jones that Coby Bryant undercuts and picks off.

If the Seahawks can keep bracketing McBride and perhaps giving him a little bit of an ‘accidental’ pick when he runs a crossing route away from his primary defender, they can work with the pass rush in keeping the ball out of McBride’s hands.  No doubt this will greatly diminish the Cardinals’ ability to move the ball downfield.