The national media’s quarterback analysis ahead of the college football season was off. Many projected Arch Manning to be the top overall prospect at any position for 2026, LaNorris Sellers was being prematurely projected as a top-five pick and then there was the baffling promotion of Cade Klubnik to QB1 status.
I wanted to discuss the class in week two, cut through the reality of the group and look at how they performed. I studied Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Drew Allar (Penn State), Klubnik (Clemson vs Troy), Sawyer Robertson (Baylor vs SMU) and John Mateer (Oklahoma vs Michigan).
Garrett Nussmeier vs Louisiana Tech
Nussmeier didn’t get a lot of help but still managed to flash the skills that make him clearly the most pro-ready of the 2026 eligible QB’s. The question with Nussmeier isn’t his natural talent or sophistication as a passer. It’s upside. He’s a fit for the NFL. But does he have the physical tools to be more than an average-to-good starter? Is he a franchise elevator or someone who will need to be placed within a certain offensive system to have big success?
There were several key plays by Nussmeier against LA Tech. A 3rd and 8 for example where he has to drop deep into his own end zone before completing an excellent 18-yard pass over the middle, splitting the coverage. He was poised, calm, trusted the play-call and executed.
He had a similar 2nd and 11 throw from his own five-yard line. Nussmeier took a shotgun snap, was quickly under pressure (and was about to be hit as he uncorked) yet still delivered another excellent completion over the middle for a first down.
At the start of the fourth quarter he converted excellently on 3rd and 11. He felt pressure from both sides so had to throw off his back-foot. He still delivered to a slow developing crosser with anticipation and accuracy for a big gain and conversion.
There were multiple drops by his receivers in the game, including in the red-zone. He did have some misses — overshooting on one play-action pass. Nussmeier also took two unnecessary sacks later on. His interception was on an underthrown ball downfield.
His touchdown though showed his comfort going through progressions and playing with poise to get a redzone score:
There’s a lot to like with Nussmeier. he regularly completes NFL throws, including on third down, and excels with anticipation and throwing receivers open. Through two games he has eliminated the bonehead mistakes from a year ago which was likely the main goal for this season. If he carries LSU to a big season — it will promote his stock in a big way.
I think he has legit first round potential. It’s just a question of whether he’ll end up in that range by the end of the year, and how high he can realistically go. He doesn’t have the size and cannon for an arm to think he can become one of the NFL’s best. I think he will need to work within a good scheme for a good play-caller and be a top-end facilitator (which I believe he is capable of).
He’s a better player than Mac Jones but there’s always a chance he ends up on that kind of path. Jones, when working with Josh McDaniels, started well in New England then faded when McDaniels bolted for Vegas. It won’t be a huge shock if Jones does quite well in relief of Brock Purdy in San Francisco, working in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. Yet he was never going to be a player who can transcend his environment. Nussmeier might be in a similar place — where he’s drafted and who he works with will likely have the biggest say in his ability to succeed at the next level. Technically though, he is an impressive player.
Drew Allar vs FIU
This was the kind of showing from Allar to bring back the non-flattering comparisons to Mike Glennon. He was quite stiff on the move and didn’t look particularly creative or at ease. I thought he looked like a mid-round pick in this game.
Right off the bat on the tape you see technical flaws. Allar takes a snap from the gun, has an awkward 2.5 step drop, pats the ball on what needs to be a really crisp drop, set and throw, and he has to rely on his admittedly good arm strength to get it out to the sideline. This is a routine, frequent, first drive kind of throw that he makes way harder than it needs to be.
When he should get the ball out, the cornerback is 10 yards off the receiver. This needs to be the kind of anticipatory throw where the receiver, running from the slot and breaking to the right sideline, needs to see the ball coming his way as soon as he turns to look for it. Here, he’s turning to Allar and the ball is still in the quarterback’s hand:
That ball needed to be out quicker. It’s 3.5 seconds between the snap and the throw. The little delay allows the cornerback to close and because his body positioning and footwork is off, the ball comes out wobbly (noted by the commentator). If this is executed correctly, you get the first down with little stress. Instead, there’s no chance for the receiver to make the play and he’s hit as soon as he makes the catch:
A 3rd and 4 throw on the first drive falls incomplete with Allar again dropping with five steps, awkwardly, from the gun. His footwork and body position is again poor and Allar throws off his back-foot. The ball sails between two receivers. It’s unclear if this is just a bad miss or a miscommunication on one or both of the routes, but it looks ugly.
On the next play on 4th and 4, Allar locks on to his covered primary receiver and it’s easily broken up for a turnover on downs.
There were good moments too. On his first touchdown he moved around and found a wide open receiver in the end zone. There were examples where his technique and footwork were better and he was able to use his arm strength to gun-in accurate throws into tighter windows.
Yet for the most part he was just off. Misfiring on easy screens, underthrowing downfield, throwing too flat and not giving receivers a chance to go and win 1v1. He’s going to be a pocket passer at the next level and needs to show a lot of technical quality to go with the arm. Instead, he looks like a player who needs so much work to get the basics functioning — without the improv or creativity others possess to avoid pressure. When he faced pressure here, he didn’t cope well.
With safety-net Tyler Warren now in the NFL, you wanted to see an elevating, rising player. We saw evidence of that at the end of last season but this performance was more like the Allar before the rise. He simply has to play better than this — and when he faces bigger challenges in the BIG-10 it’ll be interesting to see if he can.
Cade Klubnik vs Troy
In the first two games of the new season, Klubnik has been extremely underwhelming. He doesn’t have big physical tools, lacks stature and he just looks uneasy.
There’s a 3rd and 4 with just under six minutes to go in the first quarter. The receiver TJ Moore gets a really good release running a crossing route and they set-up a rub with another receiver. Here’s a screen grab highlighting the intended receiver and his route, with the rub circled:
Klubnik knows what his two receivers are going to do, who he’s supposed to throw to and the plan works perfectly. Moore is open. He just has to throw it with anticipation into the area he’s running to and it’s an easy, bread-and-butter conversion for a first down. Instead, he holds onto the ball inexplicably longer than he should do. Two things happen. Firstly, the defender who was rubbed has enough time to recover and sprint back into coverage. Secondly, Moore literally had to stop his route and turn back to the quarterback to wait for the football.
Look where the receiver is catching the ball thanks to Klubnik’s delay:
In the end Moore is tackled and brought down at the original LOS. This should be an easy conversion for a first down 100/100 times.
If you are not 6-4, 230lbs and the physical prototype for the position, you have to be able to at least execute these kinds of play at a high level. You need to sell to the league that you might not be Josh Allen but when you scheme up an easy concept to convert a third down, you’ll get the job done. This isn’t good enough.
The Clemson offense has a lot of short passes not thrown beyond the sticks. Klubnik’s lack of stature led to a couple of tipped passes at the line, one of which was intercepted for a pick-six. He was hesitant, indecisive and jittery in the pocket as Clemson fell into a 16-0 hole. He threw behind and off target, including on a wide-open touchdown opportunity in the fourth quarter. There were also some pretty deliveries to the sideline, one of which was dropped nicely between two defenders for a chunky gain. His second touchdown was a nicely lofted, accurate pass under pressure for the throw of the night.
I just don’t see it though. There’s been no evidence of him being anything more than a mid-round pick so far, let alone QB1. At least Allar has the size and the arm. Klubnik just looks like a very average prospect.
Sawyer Robertson vs SMU
This is more like it. Robertson led an epic Baylor comeback and showed off a great combination of passing skill and physical talent. His first touchdown is beautifully thrown — hitting a receiver in stride running the red-line to the left. He delivers an expert touch pass with the right amount of velocity. Textbook throw with a perfect spiral.
There’s evidence of Robertson scanning the field, identifying the best option and then executing. He knew when he had favourable matches to the outside and didn’t mess around. A case in point — on one deep ball he sees the opportunity immediately. There’s no half-baked drop and set with messy footwork here — he simply takes the snap and gets it downfield, allowing his receiver to run under the ball 1v1. The cornerback has no time to adjust to the ball in the air. It’s practically unplayable.
This was the touchdown throw to tie the game at 38-38 with 34 seconds to go:
Sawyer Robertson can rip it pic.twitter.com/ig7lCv6sbw
— Pace N Space (@PaceNSpace2) September 9, 2025
Again, he’s decisive. You can see him look pre-snap at his receivers. He knows the coverage, knows the route he wants to target and he’s decisive.
This is throwing with anticipation. When he delivers the football, the receiver isn’t even in the shot. It whistles by the referee’s right shoulder and the receiver runs to the area. Robertson exploits the coverage, knows what he’s doing and he’s in control:
On top of his arm talent and decisiveness, he’s a good athlete. He can make plays with his legs — both to extend plays and to take off and run for big gains.
Baylor were overmatched in their opening game against Auburn and Robertson didn’t really have a chance to show his best football. He still threw for 419 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Here, in a difficult contest against SMU, he shone, led an upset, and had four more touchdowns and zero picks.
We said it before the season began and it’s worth repeating. He is a player worth monitoring. I don’t know if he can promote his stock into the first round range. That’s to be determined. Yet he has far more physical upside and technical talent than Klubnik and Allar and he deserves to be seriously considered for the second or third best 2026 eligible quarterback.
John Mateer vs Michigan
Firstly, I get the sense the media hype is going to go into overdrive with Mateer. He looks the part, he interviews like Russell Wilson during his rookie season in Seattle and he’s exciting as f*** to watch. There’s an entertainment factor with Mateer that the TV companies and draft pundits are going to love. There’s a lack of true big name stars both in college football and the 2026 draft class. They are almost certainly going to do everything they can to make Mateer the face of both.
It’s not totally unwarranted. Like I said, Mateer is pure box-office. He’s both unpredictable and capable of making highlight-reel plays. There are also technical aspects to appreciate. He’s not wasting any time in the pocket with unnecessary extra steps. He’s going to drop back, get the ball out and it’s coming at max velocity nearly every time.
He throws with different arm angles. He’ll take on the middle of the field and show no fear. He can whip a pass to the sideline with almost no wasted motion — splitting two defenders before they even realise what’s going on, as he did against Michigan two minutes into the game.
As a designed runner he can sprint away from defenders, juke away from them to create missed tackles and he even has enough lower body power to run through contact occasionally. He’s a legit threat in short yardage situations as a ball-carrier and he has similar explosive traits to Jalen Hurts.
On my second watch of this game I have to confess, I liked his performance way more than I originally thought watching live. He had one throw on 1st and 13 from his own three-yard line. He had to drop back into the endzone and then right before he gets levelled by a defender, he uncorks a perfect pass 40-yards downfield to the right sideline hitting his receiver. That’s a massive swing play — showing off his poise and arm talent.
It’s not all good though. His interception was a wild off-target error, missing his intended target by a mile. He had throws behind and away from his receivers. One throw just after the two-minute warning needed to be thrown with an arc beyond the coverage, allowing the receiver to run under it. Instead Mateer threw a flat throw to the back-shoulder. It hits the defensive back and is almost picked off on the deflection. The two circles indicate where the ball went and where it could’ve and should’ve gone:
This also shows how he lacks touch at times. Everything is a fastball when you’d like to see a little bit more placement and thought rather than, ‘let me gun this sucker in there’.
Here’s another example. Look at the huge play on offer if he lofts this throw over the defender. Instead, he hits the cornerback in the hands and he’s lucky it wasn’t intercepted:
This is life with Mateer. You take the rough with the smooth. On the very next play, a 3rd and 8, he faces early pressure on a cornerback blitz. He’s a sitting duck but somehow breaks the attempted tackle and stays on his feet. This allows him to scramble to the right hand side and extend the play. On the run, he then throws a perfect dime +30 yards downfield to the right sideline. The run after the catch takes the receiver to the goal-line. Two plays later, Mateer runs it in brilliantly for a touchdown.
What should’ve been a sack and a punt at midfield ends up being a massive conversion thanks to the brilliant creativity of the quarterback, then a score to make it 21-7.
You are going to get massive highs and lows with Mateer. He’s going to do things that few quarterbacks in college football can do. He’s going to win games for Oklahoma with his talent and will. He’s also going to risk turnovers and make mistakes. When Oklahoma face Auburn on September 20th, it’ll be interesting to see whether the creativity and big plays outweigh the risk-taking and the errors in what will be a stern test against a good defense.
In a year without lots of obvious first round quarterbacks, Mateer has a chance to build momentum. It’s hard to project what he is at the moment, this is one where we need more games to say the range he deserves. Yet there’s a definite Mayfield/Hurts type quality to the way he’s started at Oklahoma.
