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So there we go — it’s #1 vs #2 in DVOA next weekend at Lumen Field for a place in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks and Rams meet for a third time this season. Discuss it all in the comments.
If you ask most Seahawks fans who they’d least like to play in the NFC Championship game, most would say the LA Rams.
That’s the right answer for a couple of key reasons.
The Seahawks finished the regular season as the #1 team in the NFL per DVOA. The Rams ranked #2. The Bears, on the other hand, were back in 16th.
It’s stating the obvious that #1 vs #16 is better than #1 vs #2.
The other reason is what happened in week 16. The Rams for three quarters were better than the Seahawks. It took a near miraculous set of events to get the game to overtime and credit to Sam Darnold and the offense, they delivered with the game on the line.
It’s still a fact though that the Rams had 581 yards of offense and scored 37 points. They won the turnover battle 3-0. They should’ve won.
A third game doesn’t necessarily have to repeat what happened there — but these two teams are not massively different than they were on December 18th.
The Rams had a bit of a wobble after that game, losing to the Falcons and toiling against the Cardinals and Panthers. Yet if they win in Chicago to claim back-to-back road playoff wins, it’d be safe to assume they’d overcome that wobble and would’ve regained momentum.
Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua connected for 12 catches, 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns at Lumen Field last time. Nacua would fill the nightmares of fans all week if it’s LA coming to Seattle next Sunday.
Stafford, even with a bad finger, is a real threat. He’s spent a career playing hurt and is probably the best in the business at dealing with it. Sean McVay is clearly capable of testing Mike Macdonald in a way Kyle Shanahan hasn’t shown so far.
The Seahawks played the 49ers in week 18 and dominated. The score was only 13-3 because they failed to finish drives and put points on the board. A fortnight later they made amends to score 41. Is there a danger the Rams, if given the opportunity, would course-correct enough to finish the job in the NFC Championship, having blown that week 16 contest?
People often say you have to beat the best to be the best. I don’t agree. The path of least resistance is always superior — and such a path is possible in the NFL this year. I don’t want to see the best two teams in the playoffs play each other next week. I want the Bears to knock the Rams out.
That isn’t taking Chicago lightly either. They have a ton of weapons and a brilliant offensive mind leading them. Caleb Williams’ mobility and improv could be the perfect antidote to Seattle’s D-line physicality. Get him on the move, have him play backyard football early. Try to rip-up Seattle’s script and make the most of an arsenal of weapons. Make the Seahawks chase the game and get out of their comfort zone.
The Bears are capable of beating anyone.
Their defense however is susceptible and relies on turnovers. They have been opportunistic and I’m not sure over four quarters the Seahawks are going to do what the Packers, Bengals and Giants did this season and throw games away.
Some will use bravado and suggest they don’t care who the Seahawks face. That’s fine — I’m sure in most cases it comes from a place of honesty.
This is the truth though — the Rams are at least the second best team in the playoffs. Watching someone else beat them so you don’t have to try and do it simply increases the odds of the Seahawks reaching the Super Bowl — even if they’d still face a big challenge against Chicago.
There are so many things rushing through my head — but it’s 5:34am as I write this so I’m going to just mention a few and leave further analysis for the coming days.
When I travelled to Seattle for Thanksgiving in 2023, I watched the Seahawks be embarrassed by the 49ers in their own backyard. When I returned to my hotel and started a live stream, I remember questioning what the future of this franchise was. It felt like they were stuck in a malaise — comfortably never bad enough to warrant the kind of unrest that forces change but equally never good enough to be remotely close to being a contender.
Then last year after the home hammering by Green Bay, I equally wondered what kind of significant work would be required to get back to a place where reaching the NFC Championship was a realistic aim.
Now here we are. It is a reality again.
It’s a reality because of bold, inspired GM-ing from John Schneider. We’ve talked plenty about his 2025 masterclass of an off-season but let’s celebrate it again. He made a bunch of moves that were derided by the cool kids online. Yet he has crafted a winner. He was bold when many would’ve sat content with the status quo. The man who rarely gets any credit for the work done to create the LOB era has put together another roster who has a chance to do something special.
Mike Macdonald is everything you want in a Head Coach. He has a clear vision. He very obviously has a creative mind and knows how to instil belief and get a performance out of his players. He is so tactically astute and he’s done an amazing job building his staff. The way he and his coaches have transformed this team into a contender again is frankly incredible. They plays top-level football in all three phases. The Seahawks hit this appointment out of the park.
Ownership deserve credit for being brave enough to move on from the Pete Carroll and back John Schneider to lead a new plan. They should not be forgotten as we enjoy this latest result.
And finally the players — they have come together and created their own ‘Mission over Bullshit’ mantra. They are the toughest, most physical team in the league. Their dedication and focus on the opportunity in front of them is everything a fan base could ask for. They are also playing superbly and consistently. It is a privilege to watch and back this team.
Onto next week and another opportunity to do something cool.
This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
We always knew it was going to come to this.
The NFC West has featured three of the NFL’s best teams this season. The chances the Seahawks would have to play one or both in the playoffs were high. And so it has come to pass,. Now the Seahawks have the NFL rarity of playing two straight games against the same opponent.
What has changed since Week 18?
For the Seahawks, Charles Cross and Coby Bryant are back. Josh Jones is out, so Amari Kight will back-up Cross. Sam Darnold has suffered an oblique injury but intends on playing.
For the Niners, Trent Williams will play but George Kittle and Ji’Ayir Brown will not. They also have two prominent players that are questionable to play: Wide Receiver Ricky Pearsall and Linebacker Dee Winters.
Last week, San Francisco traveled to Philadelphia and had a bounce-back game of sorts to secure this matchup.
We all would be perfectly happy with a carbon copy of Week 18’s dominant win but we also know that no two games are alike. Resetting and looking towards this game with a fresh perspective is what is best. After all, that is how both Head Coaches look at it.
The Watch Points for Week 18 are still valid. However, I wanted to add some thoughts about this game, what has happened in the last couple of weeks and how the Seahawks can really push themselves to the next level.
And it begins with beating San Francisco.
Poise Under Pressure Will Be Critical
Every team in the NFL needs this quality to succeed. The Seahawks have lacked it at times, even as recently as Week 18.
Sam Darnold tripped and put the ball on the ground attempting a handoff to Zach Charbonnet. Jason Myers missed two field goals. Darnold not being able to pull the trigger on a goal line pass to Charbonnet early in the game set off a chain of events that led to the Seahawks not getting any points after a fantastic early drive.
Not making costly errors or getting too far inside your own head with play calls will be very important.
Poise was a key ingredient for San Francisco in beating the Eagles last week. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions and yet the defense minimized the damage, only allowing one Field Goal from them. The offense called a trick play and executed it to perfection despite the number of variables that could go wrong including Jauan Jennings getting walloped by a defender just after letting the pass go.
Meanwhile, the Eagles were a bit of a mess.
A.J. Brown had three dropped passes and he and Head Coach Nick Sirianni had a shouting match on the sideline.
The defense failed to stop Brock Purdy on his favorite in-breaking routes, conceding a 70% completion rate after leading the NFL with the lowest completion rate on them during the regular season.
And the last drive was a microcosm of the dysfunction: The Eagles had driven the ball to the Niners’ 20-yard line with about 1:30 left in the game. They had all three timeouts, so their playbook was wide open.
On first down Jalen Hurts was sacked but that wasn’t the problem. The Eagles let almost 32 seconds leech off the clock before the next play. With three timeouts in their pocket! They then called three straight very uninspiring pass plays that all were incomplete. Ballgame.
On the previous series, Saquon Barkley had the following runs: seven yards, eight yards, nine yards, six yards, and zero yards. Jalen Hurts also had a three-yard scramble that turned into an 18-yard play with a late hit penalty.
The Niners defense was worn and gassed. The Eagles had all their timeouts and yet not once did they call a run in that sequence. There is nothing quite like not using your best players and your best plays when you most need them.
We have talked many times this year about the Seahawks turning the ball over and the occasional head-scratching play that breaks the rhythm of the offense and stalls a drive. They need to play as clean as game as they possibly can in this area.
Sam Darnold led the NFL in turnovers this year. That is not a formula for playoff success. Why? Everything in the playoffs is harder than the regular season. You are facing the best teams in the league. The stakes are higher. Coaches win Super Bowls scheming to take away your strengths and disrupt everything you like to do. Plays and schemes they have been secretly working on all season? Now is when they unleash them.
The sequencing and execution of their plays will be critical. Klint Kubiak’s messages in Darnold’s helmet must be well-chosen.
And on defense, they will have to take away Brock Purdy’s poise and force him into some poor decisions. Remembering that Purdy and the Niners absolutely love in-breaking routes, have a look at his Week 18 passing chart against this Seahawk defense:
The defense did not allow a single catch in the middle of the field more than six yards. They essentially took away his favorite, most comfortable passing route and turned him into a checkdown merchant. Combining that with snuffing out the run game they rendered the Niners offense toothless. A repeat performance along those lines would be most welcome.
They also need to move Purdy off his spot with pressure up the center of the field. We have talked about this several times: He is more effective in evading pressure from the edges and making plays. Pressure up the middle blocks his vision for those beloved in-breakers, as well as disrupting his mechanics, which his passing effectiveness depends on, given that he does not have a world-class arm. The Seahawks have also reaped the benefits of getting their hands up to tip passes.
Some Other Game Notes
— The opening drive by the offense might tell us a lot about Sam Darnold’s injury and what kind of game he might have. Likely Kubiak will call a package of runs and screen plays that do not require much from Darnold in the early going. That said, if Darnold has a full range of motion, it might be worth mixing in a deep throw to test the defense and see if they can catch them sleeping. Perhaps a route mixing receivers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba to draw coverage and Rashid Shaheed going deep.
— San Francisco’s defense continues to be susceptible to Tight End play. Last week, Dallas Goedert four catches for 33 yards, two first downs and a Touchdown. He also added a Tush Push rushing Touchdown. A.J. Barner could easily duplicate that performance, particularly with Brown out and Winters questionable. Eric Saubert might also spring free for a key catch or two along with his blocking duties.
— Week 18 had a different feel to it. The Seahawks played with purpose, intensity and aggression. Offensive Linemen were regularly spotted 5-7 yards downfield leading blocks. Kenneth Walker ran with renewed determination. And the defense flew to ball carriers and never missed an opportunity to lay a good hit on them. If you think a bye week might be an issue, just remember Week Nine. After a bye, they went to Washington and hung 31 points on the Commanders in the first half alone. I seriously doubt Mike Macdonald will let his players take their foot off the gas for this one.
— Speaking of toothless, the San Francisco pass rush has not improved in the least. Last week they blitzed Jalen Hurts eleven times. They produced one sack and zero other pressures in 36 drop backs for a 2.7% pressure rate. Put another way, they blitzed on 30% of drop backs and got less than 3% pressure. It speaks to how poor the Eagle offense was operating that Hurts did not tear the backfield apart. Sam Darnold may have a strained oblique but his vision and decision-making are intact. Burning those blitzes and setting up timely screens very well could make this game as easy as Week 18.
— The Seahawks played an extremely effective brand of football in Week 18 on both sides of the ball. The offense forced seven missed tackles. And the defense? They had none. Not one tackle missed. That is a pure distillation of the difference between the current coaching regime and the last one.
Some thoughts on the game tomorrow, the increasing likelihood the Seahawks will need a new offensive coordinator and some personnel thoughts for the future…
Regulars will have heard my consistent complaints about the standard of the 2026 draft. It’s the worst class I’ve covered since 2008 when this blog began.
And it isn’t getting any better.
A number of players have opted not to turn pro with the deadline for non-Indiana and Miami players set for today. The main headline is Oregon quarterback Dante Moore choosing not to declare. It shouldn’t be a surprise — the horrible loss to Indiana shouldn’t have been his college finale. He needs games.
Two other big name Oregon players have also opted against turning pro in A’Mauri Washington (DT) and Matayo Uiagalelei (DE).
Here’s a full list of the other players who made the call to return to their schools:
Anthony Smith (DE, Minnesota)
Keon Sabb (S, Alabama)
Ryan Baer (T, Pittsburgh)
Kenyatta Jackson (DE, Ohio State)
Austin Siereveld (T/G, Ohio State)
Bray Hubbard (S, Alabama)
Kelley Jones (CB, Mississippi State)
Quincy Rhodes (DE, Arkansas)
Mark Fletcher Jr (RB, Miami)
Bear Alexander (DT, Oregon)
Jayden Maiava (QB, USC)
LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina)
Darian Mensah (QB, Duke)
Nyck Harbor (WR, South Carolina)
Whit Weeks (LB, LSU)
Trevor Goosby (T, Texas)
Yhonzae Pierre (EDGE, Alabama)
Evan Stewart (WR, Oregon)
Lucas Carneiro (K, Ole Miss)
Here are the players who chose to transfer rather than turn pro:
Sam Leavitt (QB, LSU) transferred from Arizona State
Brendan Sorsby (QB, Texas Tech) transferred from Cincinnati
Byrum Brown (QB, Auburn) transferred from USF
Josh Hoover (QB, Indiana) transferred from TCU
John Henry Daley (DE, Michigan) transferred from Utah
Raleek Brown (RB, Texas) transferred from Arizona State
Xavier Chaplin (T, Florida State) transferred from Auburn
Billy Edwards Jr (QB, North Carolina) transferred from Wisconsin
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State) transferred from North Texas
Cade Uluave (LB, portal) —transferring from California
Preston Zachman (S, Indiana) transferred from Wisconsin
Jaden Craig (QB, TCU) transferred from Harvard
Earl Little Jr (S, Ohio State) transferred from Florida State
Justice Haynes (RB, portal) transferring from Michigan
Dylan Raiola (QB, Oregon) transferred from Nebraska
AJ Harris (CB, Indiana) transferred from Penn State
Damon Wilson (EDGE, Missouri) — remains in the portal
The class was already suffering with a lack of top-end blue-chip talent but now the depth has further been diminished.
On my updated horizontal board I now have four ‘legit round one’ players, 10 more players I’d happily take in round one this year and only 15 more with second round grades. That’s 29 players for the first 64 picks.
I’m further convinced there will be a very active veteran trade market this off-season among the teams picking later in round one.
If you missed my conversation on Puck Sports on the Seahawks vs 49ers game earlier, check it out here:
Please like the video and leave a comment!
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