I was listening to Brock & Salk yesterday, where the subject of Seattle’s quarterback future came up. Salk mentioned he’d been having a conversation with Gee Scott, who was arguing that Geno Smith ‘made himself a ton of money’ on Sunday after Sam Howell struggled badly against the Packers.
Quite rightly, Salk called it out as a lazy take. I wanted to share my own thoughts on why Salk is right.
Firstly, it’s not as if the Seahawks were under the impression that Howell was a starter in waiting and now they’ve been dealt a bitter blow because he struggled in relief. Nobody in the front office was watching that game, mouth ajar, shocked by what they were witnessing.
Truth be told, they already knew he wasn’t good enough. They saw it in training camp. They saw it when he threw 21 interceptions last season and gave up 65 sacks. They saw it when he fell to the fifth round in 2022, with the Seahawks opting to pass on him in round four, despite needing a quarterback.
On the day they traded for him, John Schneider said in an interview he was coming to be the backup. He never said that about Drew Lock, who was described as one of ‘two #1 quarterbacks on the roster’ instead. The move for Howell was likely inspired by Lock’s decision to sign for the Giants. Schneider, Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb all talked up Lock in quite an exaggerated way before his decision, in an apparent attempt to convince him to stay. When he didn’t, they had to call an audible.
The Seahawks brought in Howell because they needed a cheap backup and clearly felt Howell was better than the limited options remaining on the open market. His cap-hit was a key factor. Howell is costing just $985,000 this year. In comparison, Carson Wentz is costing the Chiefs $2.35m to be Patrick Mahomes’ backup. Joe Flacco is costing the Colts $5m.
They also correctly identified there’d be a rush on quarterbacks in the draft, with a big gap between the first rounders and the rest, meaning they probably weren’t going to be able to select a player. Howell was a cheap backup on a rookie contract with some playing experience. It was a low-level shot to nothing.
Most backup quarterbacks are bad. Howell is no different. I wasn’t a fan of the compensation given up for him but it appears there was enough of a market for a bidding war to break out, leading to the Seahawks swapping a third rounder for a fourth. It wasn’t a back-breaking deal. The fact they traded down from pick #78 to #102 and then to #121 suggests they weren’t crazy about the value in the late third round and early fourth anyway.
That Howell struggled badly on Sunday is simply confirmation that he isn’t good enough. Nothing more, nothing less. It doesn’t mean that Geno Smith is suddenly viewed in a more positive light, because he happens to be superior to Howell — something we already knew.
I’ve seen it suggested in several places that people might ‘appreciate’ Geno Smith more now that we’ve seen Howell in the offense. Again, I don’t think it makes any difference. I doubt Howell would thrive if he was playing behind the 2014 Dallas Cowboys offensive line with peak Dez Bryant to throw to. He is what he is — a cheap backup. Smith is a far better player, something I imagine 99% of fans have long embraced.
A lot of the people saying Smith should receive, or is now more likely to receive, a big extension in the off-season, are the same people who thought he might be franchise-tagged in 2023, or receive a contract of a similar annual amount. He didn’t. His market was limited, perhaps even limited to just the Seahawks. He returned on a team-friendly arrangement with annual ‘outs’.
Since his fantastic hot streak to begin the 2022 season, ending after the game in Munich, he’s thrown 49 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Seattle’s record since the Germany game is only 20-19.
I appreciate the challenges of quarterbacking the current-day Seahawks but I also think, eventually, you have to admit that throwing only three more touchdowns than a struggling Will Levis this season — despite playing three more games — isn’t great. Neither is being third in the league for interceptions, including sharing the lead for picks thrown into the end zone with Jameis Winston. Smith is 24th in the NFL for QBR and 19th for quarterback rating.
According to Hugh Millen on KJR, in the last two seasons, there are 49 quarterbacks with 200 pass attempts in the NFL. His completion percentage among those 49 quarterbacks in the red zone ranks 46th. His passer rating ranks 47th. Millen described a ‘success rate’ for passes on each subsequent down in the red zone. Smith ranked 44th. On interceptions per attempt, he ranked 44th and for pure interceptions he’s 49th. He shares company with the likes of Winston, Levis, Kenny Pickett and Daniel Jones on these lists.
For this season alone, he ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks for passer rating in the red zone. He ranks 34th for interceptions. His touchdown to interception rate ranks 33rd. His completion percentage ranks 26th.
Surely these numbers have to be taken into account when considering the likelihood of a very expensive new contract? Certainly more than Smith getting injured and his backup struggling.
One of the positive arguments in favour of Smith has been his PFF grade, where he is ranked eighth at quarterback. I’d love to understand their grading. Smith has an 83.3 total grade for his performance this year. However, in not one single game has he received a grade at or higher than 83.3. His highest grade in a game so far was an 83.1 against New England. That was his only game graded in the 80’s. So how does he get an overall 83.3 grade?
The average of his game-by-game grading is a 72.6. Clearly PFF doesn’t use the average for a cumulative season grade. The confusing nature as to how a player can only grade in the 80’s once all season yet get an 83.3 total grade for the year, 10 full points higher than his average, makes me sceptical.
People often cite the bad offensive line as a major roadblock to more success for Geno Smith. According to ESPN, the Seahawks rank 17th for pass block win rate.
The Dolphins rank 20th, in a similar range. Tua Tagovailoa has had a difficult season. He’s played four fewer games than Smith yet has thrown four more touchdowns, is ranked 13th for QBR and ninth for quarterback rating. The Bengals are ranked an abysmal 29th. Joe Burrow is third in the NFL for QBR and quarterback rating and leads the league in touchdowns. This is why Burrow is considered an elite player. But it shows Smith’s lack of touchdowns and high number of picks isn’t due to an impossible environment.
Smith’s average ‘time to throw’ is 2.82 seconds according to PFF. That places him 16th in the NFL. Again, middle of the pack. It’s the exact same rate as Josh Allen. Tagovailoa has the least amount of time to throw in the league at 2.31 seconds and yet, as noted, he has more touchdowns and a superior QBR and quarterback rating in fewer games.
It should also be noted that Smith has faced the most pressures among qualifying quarterbacks, despite these numbers. That’s in part due to Stone Forsyth giving up 35 pressure alone in just six games (seventh most in the NFL for the season). He hasn’t played since week six. Mike Jerrell also gave up 14 pressures in four games. He hasn’t played since week 11.
None of the above, to me, suggests the league’s position on Smith is going to have changed considerably now that he’s 18 months older. I suspect his market is no different than it was coming off the best year of his career in 2022. It may even be slightly weaker given his age.
I can already hear the ‘Geno hater’ accusations building, so let me reiterate my stance on Smith. I think he’s a perfectly good bridge option. I don’t want him rushed out of the door. I appreciate his excellent physical talent and that there are far worse quarterbacks currently in the NFL. I think he’s handled a difficult situation well this year, playing a key role in Seattle’s eight wins so far. The Seahawks can do far worse than Smith and definitely shouldn’t be switching to someone else for the sake of it.
I also think it’s pretty hard to be that excited about a bridge quarterback when you’re not actually bridging to anything. I don’t think Smith is a long-term solution for Seattle. I think he does some things very well but if we’re being honest, he also does some things that prevent him from being among the better quarterbacks in the NFL — as we’ve seen with his red zone play over the last two seasons.
In an ideal world Seattle would’ve drafted a young quarterback this year or in 2023 and that player would be developing in the background — as Green Bay did with Jordan Love. That hasn’t happened. I don’t blame the Seahawks, they’ve not passed on any quarterback I wish was in Seattle. But they don’t have a clear plan at the position.
These are the questions for me. Do the Seahawks want to commit a significant guaranteed contract to Geno Smith, paying him a handsome annual salary? Is there a compromise deal that suits both parties? Are there other players the Seahawks want to pursue? Is there anyone in the draft they can add in 2025 to finally create the bridge arrangement?
Let’s go through these one by one.
Do the Seahawks want to commit a significant guaranteed contract to Geno Smith, paying him a handsome annual salary? I don’t think Schneider is interested in doing that, based on what happened and what he said in the last off-season. I think the Seahawks would prefer to go year-to-year and are open-minded about things.
Is there a compromise deal that suits both parties? This remains the most likely option. There could be some brinkmanship in negotiations from both sides but ultimately, they might need each other. A contract that pays more, retains a year-to-year nature but doesn’t force any long-term commitment or massive increase in cost could be the best option.
Are there other players the Seahawks want to pursue? We’ve talked about Sam Darnold and why Schneider might have interest in him. There aren’t many alternatives. That’s why a compromise might be most likely, unless they want to aggressively compete for Darnold who looks set to get a Baker Mayfield-style contract in the off-season. If such a deal is structured the same way, a low first-year cap hit ($7-8m) and an out after year two could be appealing.
Is there anyone in the draft they can add in 2025 to finally create the bridge arrangement? In the last seven days, Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar both announced they won’t be entering the 2025 draft. Neither player was close to a flawless prospect but they had intriguing traits that you could easily imagine would appeal to Schneider. The quarterback class now looks especially thin. There’s a distinct possibility the 2025 draft will come and go and once again, the Seahawks won’t draft a quarterback. Schneider seemed to at least have some interest in Quinn Ewers but after a disappointing 2024, that might’ve changed.
So where does this leave us? Sadly, without a particularly attractive outlook. The most likely scenario is a short extension with Smith that increases his average earning per year but also retains an annual out for the Seahawks and reduces his 2025 cap hit. Not being able to draft a future potential starter, though, means an increasing likelihood of kicking the long-term can down the road again.
That’s a problem, at least in my eyes. The longer you wait, the benefit of Smith as the bridge will eventually run out. He’s getting older. This is the second season in a row where he’s been hurt late in the season.
Further to this, in the last four seasons, the Seahawks are 33-33 if you include the San Francisco playoff defeat in 2022. I appreciate that if they can fix the offensive line and correct some other issues within the team, they’ll have a better chance of success. But even then, they’ve been a nine-win team the last two years and might be heading that way again. They’re in danger of becoming a consistent middle-ground team — and I’m not sure you can break out of that without cost-effective brilliance at quarterback. It’s not the only way but it usually is.
Improvements to the offensive line in the off-season will definitely help the cause. I still think more is needed to make this team a serious contender, including at quarterback. Fans can justifiably be underwhelmed with the situation when you consider the choices are a continuation of what has only taken the Seahawks to nine wins, perhaps with the promise of trying to finally fix the offensive line. But what are the options to get significantly better?
It’s tough to generate enthusiasm for the future when the situation is considered this way. I wish I had a more positive outlook to present. Maybe they can make the defense even better and create a more balanced, competent offense and win that way? Like I said, maybe. Therefore, should we actually consider an off-season where defensive additions, alongside the O-line, are more important?
Yet nothing about Sunday means Geno Smith is more likely to get paid a whopping new contract, just because Sam Howell struggled. It’s hard to work out why that would be justified anyway, why they’d be obliged to, or how it would make the Seahawks any better in the short or long term.
