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College football week eight scouting notes: An early look at the horizontal board

October 23, 2025 / / 0 Comments

As part of today’s notes, I wanted to share some general ‘horizontal board’ info based on where I’m at. I won’t publish the whole thing for a while but here are some things I do want to post…

— I think the top four players eligible for the 2026 NFL draft are Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State), Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State), Spencer Fano (T, Utah) and Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame) — in that order. Reese reminds me of Abdul Carter — a freakish athlete with unnatural power who flashes so much as an EDGE rusher and not just as a conventional linebacker. Downs has been one of the top performers in college football for a long time now. Fano is a dominating, tone-setting right tackle and Love is a dynamic weapon who could benefit from Jahmyr Gibbs’ success in Detroit. There’s quite a talent separation between this quartet and the rest at the moment, in my opinion anyway.

— A lot of people have Miami’s Reuben Bain Jr listed as a top-five pick. I have given him a third round grade. There’s talk of him having 30-inch arms and he’s 270lbs on a stocky 6-3 frame. His game is based on power and there’s a lack of twitch on tape. Sure, he’s shown to occasionally win off the edge but we’re not talking about a dynamic speed rusher here. He’s missed 21.3% of his tackles in the last four games and he has three sacks for the year. Ask yourself this — how many short-armed, 6-3/270lbs defensive ends who are better against the run than rushing the passer go very early in round one? Over the years there have been multiple players like this — Boogie Basham, AJ Epenesa and Myles Murphy are three that spring to mind — who the draft media go crazy for and it always feels like a bit of a mirage. I don’t see an X-factor NFL player.

— I currently only have 29 players with grades in the first two rounds. It’s one of the reasons why I would support an aggressive pre-deadline trade by the Seahawks. It would have to be the right player, of course, but this is not a class where I think teams are going to get value. I will obviously add names to this tally as the process goes on (notably post-Senior Bowl and combine) but it’s also possible some of the players I have listed won’t declare.

— Seahawks fans often talk about right guards. I have three right tackles graded highly as guard converts — Duke’s Brian Paker, Miami’s Francis Mauigoa and Iowa’s Gennings Dunker. All three are high-performing zone blockers. If I was doing a mock draft for the Seahawks and wanted to pair a player with them, it could easily be one of these three. Penn State’s left guard Vega Ioane is also one of my favourite players — and a good zone blocker — but he would have to go from the left side to the right which isn’t always a smooth transition.

— I’m not as high on the EDGE rushers. Clemson’s TJ Parker has been a big disappointment and like team-mate Peter Woods, will be relying on older tape and good testing. Romello Height, Jaishawn Barham, Gabe Jacas, Josh Josephs and David Bailey to me all seem like rotational or development players for the next level. The bigger-bodied guys are overrated. I think there’s very little to get excited about with LT Overton at Alabama. Matayo Uiagalelei has flashes but is he going to be a dynamic threat at the next level? Keldric Faulk and Dani Dennis-Sutton have a lot more potential than the others but need to play more consistent, impactful football and finish plays.

— It’s difficult to find cornerbacks at the moment. The big name linebackers look average to me. I’d rather take a chance on crazed, relentless madmen like Cade Uluave than spend a high pick on CJ Allen or Anthony Hill Jr who flatter to deceive. It’s an OK bunch of receivers.

Ty Simpson is the best draft eligible quarterback (part 3)

I’ve been writing about Alabama’s Simpson for a while now, noting why I think he’s a superior prospect at the moment to the likes of Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who’ve been getting all of the media’s attention. Interestingly, Todd McShay today produced a top-32 prospects list and had Simpson as QB1. It’s starting to turn.

Simpson is playing at a fantastic technical level. He isn’t scared to throw over the middle and he delivers NFL-level throws with decisiveness, anticipation and accuracy. He is elevating Alabama and beating good opponents, including on the road, every week. His mentality is as impressive as his talent. The only issue is a lack of starting experience. If he had 30 games under his belt and was playing the way he is, he’d be widely considered the favourite to be the #1 pick. Teams are going to have to weigh up what they’re seeing and whether they care about his inexperience.

Let’s look at some plays against Tennessee. In this first clip, the left guard is beaten way too easily off the snap creating early pressure. Simpson is already having to pass from his own endzone. No problem:

Look at the level of poise and calm he has dealing with this situation. I want to share a screen-grab from that video:

When I took this picture, Simpson has already felt the pressure and adjusted his position because of it. Then, with two defenders closing in, look what he’s doing. He’s not panicking or trying to desperately scramble. He’s looking upwards and scanning the field. He sees a target, subtly side-steps to his left to buy an extra split-second in the pocket, then delivers a strike over the middle.

By the way, this play was a 3rd and 13 and he converts it for a first down.

This is next-level quarterback play. There are current pro’s in the NFL who would’ve absolutely shat themselves in that situation. This is Simpson putting his team on his back, dealing with a difficult situation and getting the job done.

Next clip. This one is about ball placement. He’s being asked to throw from the middle of the field to the right sideline to a tight spot, 36-yards downfield. It’s a great catch by the receiver but the ball is placed right where it needs to be, giving the receiver or no-one a chance to get it. The ball is also delivered with good velocity and loft:

I’ve spoken in the past how I’ve had conversations with people in the league who say they only watch every third down a quarterback makes before determining whether they’ll watch anything else. Simpson excels in that area. Look at this absolute bullet that should’ve been caught over the middle. This is a NFL throw:

Can you see the Shanahan/McVay tree coaches admiring this kind of throw off play-action?

 
These are what NFL-level throws in college football look like:

He did have one really bad decision on Saturday, throwing back inside across his body into traffic. He was lucky not to be picked off — and that’s perhaps where his inexperience shows. Yet he then ran the subsequent 4th and 2 for a conversion on the next play, scrambling to the right and evading defenders.

Since the week one disappointment against Florida State, Simpson’s QBR is 87.9. He’s scored 20 total touchdowns compared to only one interception. He’s won games against Georgia and Missouri on the road, also beating Vanderbilt and Tennessee at home.

He should be the Heisman favourite. He is QB1. He absolutely looks the part and if he keeps performing and Alabama keep winning, we’re going to hear a lot more about him.

A final note on Alabama. I’ve long thought linebacker Deontae Lawson was extremely overrated and was shocked to see some people still referring to him as a possible high draft pick. To me he’s stiff, not physical enough, too easy to block and he shows questionable effort at times.

Look at how he dealt with this touchdown on Saturday — from the bad angle to giving up on the play far too early and not hustling to make a last ditch tackle. He’s wearing #0. You can’t win with this:

I wouldn’t draft him — and it might be worth noting the people suggesting he’s destined to go early because that feels like a terrible take.

Carnell Tate is a lot better than I originally thought

The Ohio State receiver has taken his game to another level in recent weeks. There are so many things to like. He’s catching away from his body, he has superb body control and can hang in the air while contorting to make difficult grabs, his ball-tracking is superb, he appears to have a high degree of field IQ like most of the Ohio State receivers and he’s very reliable with zero tallied drops so far in 2025. His route running is impressive and he knows how to get open.

Tate lines up almost exclusively outside and while there’s little in the way of YAC — he is averaging 17.3 yards a catch. Four of his six touchdowns so far have been on passes beyond 20-yards.

I’m not sure on his pure long speed and that might be a thing that tempers his stock somewhat. However, the league is littered with highly productive receivers at the moment who aren’t ‘speed demons’. Tate is a cultured, talented, natural receiver.

Here’s what he did against Wisconsin on Saturday:

With the 2026 draft class playing out as it is, it wouldn’t be a shock if he ended up going in the top-20. With Chris Brazell II fading somewhat after an electric start, the fight to be WR1 appears to be between Tate and USC’s Makai Lemon.

Arkansas running back Mike Washington looks really good

I wrote about him last week but couldn’t resist a follow up today. What an impressive player and pre-testing, I’m giving him a second round grade at the moment. He’s a 220lbs back who shows great burst and decisiveness to shoot through openings and acclerate. Washington changes direction well and he finishes runs. He has a gliding quality to his running style but it’s not often you see this on such a physical runner.

Here’s a couple of clips from the Texas A&M game on Saturday:

Washington has 404 yards after contact this season, more than Jonah Coleman and Kaytron Allen. I’d argue he’s had limited opportunity to shine too — Arkansas have often been behind or having to deal with shoot-out games where the running attack has had to take a back-seat.

He’s been one of my favourite players to watch so far this year.

On top of Washington and Arkansas’ talented quarterback Taylen Green, I’ve also been impressed with receiver O’Mega Blake. He has strong hands, he’s also a finisher when he’s running after the catch. For 2025 he has 582 yards and four TD’s so far. He’s an outside receiver with decent size (6-2, 190lbs) and he only has two drops for the year. He excels in mid-to-short range situations and could be good for a system like Seattle’s. He does produce YAC and he’s a very competitive, aggressive player. I’ve given him a third round grade but he could last into day three and provide some value.

Other quarterback notes

I thought Oregon’s Dante Moore had a much better performance against Rutgers than he did against Indiana. He showed off natural gifts including some fantastic layered throws, deep shots and ‘make it look easy’ throws to dissect coverage. This was a performance more worthy of the hype he’s been receiving.

I do think Rutgers were absolutely horrendous though — evidenced by the final score (56-10) and their coverage and pressure combinations were appalling. Their tackling was also garbage. On the penultimate Oregon touchdown, three defenders seemed to be running away from the running back as he sprinted to the end-zone, not towards him. It was like playing Madden on easy mode for Oregon. Even so, Moore flashed some nice plays and showed off his potential.

USF’s Byrum Brown is built like a tank and he’s a forceful runner and capable passer. He can throw with touch but also make explosive plays on the move. There’s potential here to work with.

Oklahoma blitzed a lot against South Carolina and LaNorris Sellers really didn’t handle it well. Too often he felt the pressure and set off running. He looked flustered and had no way of combatting with quick hot throws. The offense looks awful and needs to help him — but Sellers looked the total opposite of Simpson in terms of composure under pressure.

Meanwhile, I continue to be impressed with Oklahoma defensive tackle Gracen Holton. He’s powerful, shows some agility, he’s undersized but disruptive and had a great sack bullying his way past two blocks to sack Sellers. He could provide some solid mid-round value.

I really like the playing style of Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt. He can get the ball downfield on the run, he’s creative, has a better arm than expected and there’s just something about him I like.

The same can’t be said for Carson Beck. I’ve no idea why some people were still calling him a round one type player. He just can’t help but throw terrible, lousy interceptions. He did it throughout last season and now it’s happening again.

He had four official interceptions against Louisville and had another nullified on a penalty. After the game he blamed his receiver on one pick for running the wrong route, yet he still threw the ball and should’ve owned it.

Here are the first two picks:

This is the third:

And now the fourth. Compare how Ty Simpson handles pressure to this:

I wouldn’t draft Beck. If he’s throwing so many picks in college, how does that change and improve at the next level? He’s playing for Georgia and Miami too — hardly overmatched smaller schools with no supporting cast.

Since taking Brock Bowers off him in his first year as a starter, he’s been pretty much exposed as a turnover machine.

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Texans in an ugly game

October 20, 2025 / / 0 Comments

I’ll keep this short because it’s gone 7am and I need sleep.

It’s very pleasing the Seahawks won, especially at home, improving their record to 5-2. No team has a superior record in the NFC and they pulled level with the 49ers and Rams in the NFC West, which is really important.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Leonard Williams were again outstanding. Nick Emmanwori’s promising start to his career continued. The defense, by and large, were smothering and dominant. They gave CJ Stroud no time to settle and he looked flustered all night. I can’t wait to see how many pressures they tallied.

Third and fourth down defense was elite — as was the run defense.

However, there are things that put me on a downer as this game concluded. Once again, the Seahawks got in their own way. This has been a weekly trend with the exception of the Saints blowout. They make individual mistakes, questionable play-calling decisions and seem incapable of managing a game properly for 60 minutes.

The sequence that turned 14-0 (and should’ve been 21-0 but for Drake Thomas’ fumble) into 14-6 at half-time was frustrating enough. That they came out in the second half and turned the ball over three times, continued to throw when the situation called for runs and did everything to give the Texans a chance to get back into it was maddening.

We’ve gone from the pointless Jalen Milroe package to now asking Cooper Kupp to throw the ball on trick plays instead. Resist the trick play. Just run your offense. You’re good.

There were also clusters of individual mistakes, including Anthony Bradford penalties, Charles Cross getting beat off the edge, the turnovers and Josh Jobe dropping two interceptions.

They need to fix these issues during the bye. They need a better plan to finish games when they are winning in the fourth quarter. They need to stop getting tricky and cute with their play-calling.

They need to get out of their own bloody way.

Achieve this and they can be a serious contender. If they don’t fix the problems, they’ll drop important games in the coming weeks they have no business losing. That will be massively frustrating when the NFL is wide-open this year and a great opportunity is seemingly emerging.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week Seven vs Houston)

October 20, 2025 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

This season, as much as any other, there are few clear answers in the NFL.  Admittedly, six weeks in the league’s hierarchy of teams is rarely fully defined.

But this year, the unpredictable nature of the NFL has vastly been pushed into the forefront.

Traditional NFL powers like Baltimore, Kansas City, Buffalo and Philadelphia have looked sluggish and handcuffed by injuries at times.  Indianapolis and Tampa Bay have the best records in the NFL and upstarts like New England, Chicago and Carolina appear like they will either be factors or spoilers by the time the playoffs come around.

It’s been a strange season so far.

It is in this landscape that I present to you maybe the NFL’s biggest enigma:  The Seahawks’ opponent tonight, the Houston Texans.

They stand at 2-3, having clearly beaten inferior teams Tennessee and one half of the Baltimore Ravens and losing to the superior Rams, Bucs, Jaguars.  Yet they sport a top-ten +47-point differential, due to only losing by a combined thirteen points in their three losses.

They have one of the NFL’s top defenses, with top-quality players at all three levels, but year to date they have only generated twelve sacks and an 18% pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks, which are bottom-ten numbers.  They also have seven defenders in the bottom 100 of the NFL in tackling efficiency, more than any other team except Cincinnati.

Nothing about their current offense is special, especially their offensive line.  And yet CJ Stroud is not constantly under duress, and he and Nico Collins are one of the most connected duos in the NFL and can turn the game on its head quickly.

This is typically a game where you would feel comfortable with projecting a Seahawks win.  But this can turn into a game at any moment, depending on which Texans team shows up.

How can the Seahawks take control of this game and head into their bye week 5-2?

Play a Clean Game and Win with Defense

Houston is a well-coached team.  They are +1 in turnover ratio, better than the Seahawks, who sit at -1 currently.  They have only lost two fumbles, and the Seahawks are the only team in the NFL without a fumble recovery on defense.

Like the Seahawks, they are disciplined and do not take many penalties.

Their opponents start drives on average at the 25-yard line, best in the NFL.

They have not been a team that regularly helps their opponents win by making mistakes.  Cheap points will likely not be easy to come by.

The margins are slimmer to be sure.  But the Seahawks hold a sizeable advantage in talent and their track record of game play is more consistent than Houston’s.  If they are able to play smart, well-coached football, they should be able to have a comfortable handle on this game.

The Seahawks defense vs the Texans offense is where they have their biggest advantage.  If they can make a clear statement and keep the field-position and time-of-possession game in their favor, it would greatly assist the offense to score some points of the easier variety.  An extreme example of this was the Raiders-Chiefs disaster of a game yesterday.  The Chiefs sustained long drives on offense and kept the Raiders from gaining any momentum on offense.  Whenever the Raiders started making progress, the Chiefs defenders would win at the point of attack and either move Geno Smith out of his spot or force a holding penalty on the Raiders to kill drives.  The Raiders responded by constantly ignoring the run game and passing at will, which enabled Kansas City to tee off on the offense and it just enflamed the situation.

Win the Trenches and Spread the Ball Around

With respect to the Rams and Bucs, the Texans have not faced a defensive line as deep and talented as Seattle’s.  They can get pressure with just their standard base package, and with stunts and the occasional blitz mixed in, the Seahawks should be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense.  Houston’s line is not the horror show we saw last season or early this season (especially after they finally benched old friend Laken Tomlinson).  But up and down the line, you can see spots for the defense to attack.

Aireontae Ersery at Left Tackle is starting as a rookie.  While he has great measurables and looks like he might be their starter for years to come, he is still feeling his way in the NFL and has given up four sacks in five games already.  Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe should get plenty of chances to put pressure on C.J. Stroud from the blind side.  Tytus Howard on the right side is going to have his hands full with Demarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams.

But the real matchup that could define game is in the interior.  Jake Andrews, Juice Scruggs and Ed Ingram are reminiscent of some of the interiors the Seahawks have run out in recent years that have given fans fits.  While they have their occasional wins (Ingram is well-graded by PFF for what it is worth), this is where the Seahawks need to earn their money.  Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams will provide a clear mismatch and should regularly push the pocket into Stroud’s lap and keep the second level of the defense clean.

Allowing the linebackers and safeties free reign to do their jobs will be a critical part of this game.  Houston’s running game has been nothing to write home about this year, being about league average.  Nick Chubb’s first down conversion rate is below his career norm, and Stroud is right behind him in rushing first downs.

Also, Dalton Schultz could be a challenge for the Seahawks.  With Christian Kirk out, Stroud will have one less pro-grade weapon in the passing game.  Schultz is a player that is solid in running routes but also functions well as a dump-off safety valve when the pressure gets to be too much and he is effective at turning a three-yard completion into a catch and run for a first down.  He is a Tight End but runs routes and motions like a Wide Receiver to get his best matchup.  The Seahawks have had trouble defending Tight Ends but with Nick Emmanwori and Devon Witherspoon back, this could be another game-defining matchup.  Without a fair number of yards after the catch, it could force Stroud to make deeper passes than he is comfortable with and that will give the pass rush a chance to really pin their ears back and get after him.

On the flip side, it might be fair to say that Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter will be the best edge duo the Seahawks face this year.  Charles Cross can really put a stamp on a relatively solid season by keeping Sam Darnold clean.  And Abe Lucas will need to return to his best form to keep either of these players from wrecking the game.

Do the Seahawks need to specifically alter their game plan to combat these two monsters?  To a degree they will.  No doubt they will run Twelve Personnel and occasionally have A.J. Barner or Eric Saubert chipping on one side and then releasing to a route or staying home as a safety valve option for Sam Darnold.

However, here is where the beauty of the Klint Kubiak offense comes in.  Darnold has been so quick, so accurate that he gets rid of the ball before the pass rush can get home.  Anything short of a complete whiff by blockers and more often than not, he gets the ball out.  It is true that overall, the Offensive Line is performing better than in previous seasons, but it is also just as much due to the design of the offense and the razor-sharp effectiveness in which Darnold runs it.

Winning on offense and defense is not just about scheme but about matching up on individual sequences and timing.  A fine effort by the pass rushers could be spoiled by a well-chosen pass or a run that goes right through the gaps they just vacated.  Kubiak will need that kind of timing and cleverness with his calls tonight.

Derek Stingley is one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks, and no doubt he will see a lot of snaps across from Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  There is no reason to avoid throwing at Stingley though.  Smith-Njigba is performing at such a high level and has such chemistry with Sam Darnold, there should be no hesitance to try and win with the formula that has been working so well.  He is far and away the most-targeted Receiver for the Seahawks and that should not change.

However, spreading the ball around helps keep the defense honest and the Seahawks have so many weapons, the Texans could struggle to contain them all.  A.J. Barner has proven to be so much more than the blocking Tight End that we all thought we were getting when he was drafted.  He has turned into a real option in the passing game and just when the defense thinks they have the main threats locked in on a play, bam, Darnold finds Barner for a back-breaking play.

I also think this could be a game where Elijah Arroyo and Tory Horton could play a similar role.  More than once this season, we have seen the play designs that overwhelm the defense and draw coverages away from that third or fourth receiver option and he is wide open, waiting to be exploited.

In studying the tape, one area where the Texans can be vulnerable is the quick slant and in-breaking route that the Seahawks are so effective in.   Baker Mayfield went to that well time and time again in Week 2 against them.  And while he only logged 191 passing yards, he was very effective at keeping the pace of the game in the Bucs’ favor.  Cooper Kupp and Smith-Njigba have developed excellent chemistry with Darnold, and it can be a bread-and-butter type play to set up deeper shots later in the game.

Why I would be prepared to draft Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green

October 19, 2025 / / 0 Comments

I don’t think you can ever invest too much in the quarterback position. It’s the most significant individual position in sport.

The Seahawks appear set. Sam Darnold is playing very well. He’s only 28-years-old and could be the answer for the immediate future. On top of that, they clearly like Drew Lock as a backup (he only turns 29 next month) and they recently used a third round pick on Jalen Milroe.

However, I don’t think this should prevent the Seahawks looking at the 2026 class. If there’s a player worthy of a pick, I think you have to consider it. Things change quickly in the NFL. Look at the Eagles as a good example of this. Carson Wentz went from MVP candidate, to watching Nick Foles win a Super Bowl, to being benched for Jalen Hurts and then bouncing around the league.

If you see a player who could be a potential franchise quarterback, you have to take that player seriously as an investment.

The more I watch of Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green I think he should be someone of interest who I would consider if I were the Seahawks. He’s an excellent talent with exciting pro-potential. I think draft media is sleeping on Green but I’m pretty certain the league isn’t. He has a very good chance to be a top-60 pick next year.

The Razorbacks are having a challenging season. They’ve fired their coach. They are 2-5 and winless in the SEC. Every time I’ve watched them this year I expect to see Green struggle. Yet even when they’ve been blown out (Notre Dame) I haven’t come away with a negative impression of their quarterback. Instead, the positives are striking.

He’s listed at 6-6 and 224lbs. He runs like a gazelle. His long strides chew up yards quickly and when he gets a crease and an opportunity to run, he’s difficult to bring down. His running style is reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick’s.

Green doesn’t just use his legs to run for gains though. He’s elusive and able to scramble away from heavy pressure to extend plays. He’s faced a lot of pressure this season and been forced to improvise.

Many quarterbacks who are strong runners rely on it so much that they’re often not the most technically accomplished passers. Green is very capable. He’s not Ty Simpson from the pocket but nobody else is in college football. There’s ample evidence of him attacking the middle of the field, delivering with poise from the pocket, going through progressions and running pro-concepts.

For the season he has 23 total touchdowns and five interceptions in seven games. He’s an experienced player who turned 23 on Saturday. He has 42 career starts in college, having previously played for Boise State before transferring.

Have a look at his highlights against Texas A&M yesterday:

 
The video is a snapshot of what he is. Let’s run through the plays:

— An improvised run starting off with a great little side-step to break contain and then make a +30 yard gain look easy

— A really decisive shot over the middle on 3rd and 9 with no wasted time for a conversion (so many college quarterbacks throw late on key downs)

— Touch throw over the middle and while the tight end is clearly very open, the pass is delivered with some layering

— Big time scramble for a touchdown — the kind of play opponents have to account for every down and in particular within range of the end zone

— Hugely creative play scrambling away from two separate pressures to extend, re-setting his eyes to the end-zone rather than continuing to scramble, then with an awkward body angle still generating ideal velocity on an inch-perfect red-zone pass for a touchdown with a tight-window throw — outstanding elusiveness and playmaking

— On 3rd and 6 he scrambles away from pressure and extends to the outside and then while moving to his left, still generates great velocity and accuracy despite the awkward angle to convert on the move with two defenders right in his face

— An example of decisiveness and his ability to snap, set, throw to the right receiver and fit throws into traffic

— Under-center red-zone concept, very much a pro-style touchdown pass

— Crazy, magical scramble where he goes from his own goal-line on fourth down with the game on the line and runs all the way to the Texas A&M 37-yard line

His QBR for the season is 90.9. Let’s compare that to some recent highly drafted quarterbacks:

Jayden Daniels — 95.6
Joe Burrow — 94.5
Bo Nix — 91.2
Taylen Green — 90.9
CJ Stroud — 88.9
Cam Ward — 88.7
Jaxson Dart — 86.3

Green is also well above the rest of college football when it comes to EPA. He’s at 63.5 and no other quarterback has an EPA above 60. Fernando Mendoza’s EPA is 42.4, Ty Simpson’s at 39.9 and Dante Moore is at 30.0.

Analytically and in terms of what you see on tape it makes for an exciting package.

Scouting quarterbacks is all about projection and there are plenty of reasons why physically gifted players don’t work out in the NFL. Sometimes it’s simply being drafted by teams like the Jets or Titans. Likewise, players with physical limitations but technical competency end up with Kyle Shanahan and play better than they would anywhere else.

It’s still important to look for players who can do special things. Green can do special things. He’s a dynamite athlete with amazing size and speed who can make massive gains on the run. He’s a defensive nightmare to game-plan for in the week. Yet despite all of this, there are enough examples of him operating from the pocket and delivering with poise, anticipation and accuracy without relying on table-setting play-calls.

To go back to the Kaepernick comparison — I think he’s basically the same athlete but a far more technical passer of the football. To me that makes him very, very interesting.

I’m surprised he isn’t talked about more. Perhaps it’s because Arkansas are struggling as much as they are, which shouldn’t reflect on him. Their defense is a disaster zone. They’ve lost games where the offense has scored 35 against Ole Miss, 31 against Memphis, 31 against Tennessee and 42 against Texas A&M. The defense is why they’re 2-5.

I suspect as the process goes along, eventually Green will rise from a media perspective when people hear what the league thinks of him. In terms of draft eligible quarterbacks, he might be the best combination of tools, talent, experience and upside. Alabama’s Simpson is the most impressive quarterback but he’s started fewer than 10 games.

Even with the Seahawks seemingly finding a quality starter in Darnold, I would keep investing in this position if the situation allows. It doesn’t mean going out of your way to avoid other more needy positions if good players are available in those areas. Yet the Eagles were derided for their decision to draft Hurts with the 53rd pick in 2020. That worked out OK — and it shows you should always have an eye on the position.

College football week seven scouting notes: Why draft media is having a bad year

October 15, 2025 / / 0 Comments

Draft media is having a Jets-like start to the season

The draft has become such big business that it needs to be talked about constantly. The way to market a draft is to promote players and make them the faces of a class — particularly at quarterback. Sometimes this is easy because the players are there. Sometimes they aren’t and that’s when the problems start.

This summer we saw a number of high profile pundits list Arch Manning as a potential #1 overall pick or the top draft eligible player for 2026. There was zero evidence for this. He showed nothing to back this up in two relief starts for Texas against UL Monroe and Mississippi State. You’d never typically grade a player in that range after two college starts. But this was a Manning, so he headlined nearly every article — mostly because it got the clicks. Fans of bad teams could dream about having the next great Manning as their franchise saviour.

Some knew the deal with Manning and perhaps weren’t under the same editorial pressure to mention him in every piece or podcast. Therefore, in search of an alternative, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik was chosen to be the name who would lead the quarterbacks.

Manning showed he wasn’t ready for the hype (and nobody should’ve expected him to be) and Klubnik was quickly exposed as a limited player with very little pro potential.

So what now?

No defensive linemen were elevating their stock to the top end. Some have tried to push Miami’s Rueben Bain into the top-five but it again feels really forced for a player who is bigger and more power-centric than twitchy. It’s a class light at every premium position — cornerback, left tackle, EDGE.

Attention turned to Dante Moore at Oregon after the win at Penn State. At that point, winning against the Nittany Lions was seen as an achievement. Moore, a former five-star recruit, had pulled off a big win. Penn State going on to lose to UCLA and Northwestern showed it wasn’t quite the big success many thought. Nevertheless, suddenly Moore was everyone’s top player for 2026.

This week Mel Kiper placed him at #1 on his first 2026 big board.

I’m not seeing it. Moore hasn’t played that well. He looks like a player with limited playing experience — because he has limited playing experience. We shouldn’t be pushing him towards the draft, we should be looking forward to watching him play at least one more year for Oregon.

At the moment he’s ranked 39th in college football for QBR (69.6). To compare, Arch Manning isn’t that far behind (67.9). For EPA it’s even worse — he’s ranked 59th (20.3). He’s benefitted from some nice easy games including Oklahoma State before they fired their coach, hapless Oregon State (who have also now fired their coach), Montana State and Northwestern — along with the win at Penn State. The player being talked up as destined to be the #1 pick wasn’t the player you saw on tape.

On Saturday, I thought he played quite poorly in the loss to Indiana. He didn’t look like a first round pick in this game, let alone the #1 overall pick. That Kiper put him at #1 after watching this is extremely surprising, frankly.

I tracked all of his throws in the game and 23 of 34 were high-percentage, easy throws (dump-offs, quick passes to the outside, checkdowns, jet sweeps, RPO’s etc). There were 11 throws that I’d consider semi-challenging or difficult (downfield throws, layered passes, throws requiring anticipation or throws over the middle in traffic). He completed just two of those passes.

His accuracy was off all game. Too often when Indiana took away his first read he would set off to run but with no purpose, making him easy to track down and tackle. He didn’t look elusive or much of a runner and as soon as the eyes dropped and the legs started moving, it was pretty much the end of the play. He took too many sacks (six on the day) and his best run was a four-yard gain.

His first interception was on a tipped pass but the second was just Indiana jumping the latest easy dump-off. You can only do that so often before the defense will gamble and win.

I was shocked how he barely threw downfield. His touchdown, a 44-yard throw, came on a total bust in coverage where he could’ve arm-punted the ball to his receiver if he wanted to.

I didn’t see any technically challenging NFL throws, any real command of the offense, any difference making physical talent or an ability to elevate his team against a tough opponent. He looked exactly like a player figuring things out at the start of his career — because that’s what he is.

There wasn’t a single thing about this display that said Moore is ready for the NFL, should be remotely considering turning pro or warranted the lofty praise the media have been giving him. Indiana were deserved winners, 30-20.

Yet we’re being told he’s the top player in the draft. Really?

Now let’s discuss the other quarterback in the game, Fernando Mendoza. He too is being massively talked up by draft media as a possible top-10 pick. This is despite the fact he plays in a RPO-heavy offense that is so incredibly challenging to project to the next level.

He ranks 7th for QBR (84.6) which is at least better than Moore’s 39th. However, for EPA, he’s only 28th (31.7).

On the first play he fakes the handoff so he’s opting to pass and then locks onto his #1 target Elijah Sarratt. He lingers on him so long, then throws a back-shoulder throw which is perfectly delivered, with the receiver equally doing his job flawlessly for a nice gain. In the pro’s, you can’t hold on to that throw. It needs to come out with anticipation quickly. If you sit there eyeing it up for three-and-a-half seconds the ball is getting played or picked.

They love the back-shoulder type throws to the outside and go to it all the time. It’s a limited playbook executed well. There’s a ton of short range stuff off the fake hand-off and a lot of throws to the sideline. He does his job well but I’m not even sure we’re seeing the variety of throws that Kurtis Rourke delivered in this system.

It’s only fair to highlight what a brilliant job Curt Cignetti does with this offense and the results are there for all to see.

However, with his quarterback I just see a player benefitting from the system who isn’t an elusive, creative player. There’s never any improv. He threw a horrendous pick-six off his back-foot — just lofting it up in the air for one of the easiest scores a defender could wish for. His accuracy is not pinpoint (there were multiple off-target throws in this game). He doesn’t challenge downfield with a great arm. When he throws on the run the ball tends to die. His best throws are to the sideline and he’s had some good moments there. There’s not much evidence of progression-based quarterbacking and no evidence of working under center.

Is Mendoza a first round pick? Not for me. Yet on Kiper’s board he’s the #3 overall player.

It doesn’t just come down to these two though. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is also often touted as a high pick but is nowhere close to being ready to turn pro. He’s miles away from round one, as emphasised by a wretched performance against LSU on Saturday. He’s ranked 59th for QBR. On Kiper’s board he’s the 21st overall prospect. How? Why?

The best quarterback in college football at the moment is Ty Simpson and it’s not even close. We’ve been talking about him for a while now and it won’t be long before the draft media start projecting him in the same range as these others. At least with Simpson the tape somewhat warrants the chatter — but even then, he’s still raw with only a handful of starts to his name and he’d be best served returning to college like the rest of the names here next year.

That said, my word is he just on a different level.

Unlike the others who play in limited systems with a ton of high-percentage throws, Simpson is out there taking the game to opponents. He attacks the middle of the field. He delivers complex, NFL-level throws every week. He fits the football into tight windows, he looks off defenders, he layers passes in-between defenders. He excels on third down.

None of the other quarterbacks I’ve talked about in this piece have made a throw like Simpson does here (with the exception of one Mendoza throw):

On Saturday, unbeaten Missouri wasn’t an easy place to play and Alabama were 7-0 down early. This was Simpson’s response on the next drive. A big third down completion, avoiding pressure, stepping into the pocket and delivering. Then a bootleg to the right, running for a nine-yard gain. A good throw to the tight end Josh Cuevas, followed by another 3rd down conversion in the red zone. He finishes off the drive with an angle route to the running back for a touchdown — knowing exactly where he wanted to go.

The crowd were quietened and he looked and played like a pro. He’s composed, his execution is top level and he lit up the field.

Look at his second touchdown. It’s on 3rd and 12 so a difficult down and distance. He drops, sets and there’s no hesitation. This is a NFL throw through traffic into the end zone. Absolutely fantastic:

Can he run and improvise? Yep. Look at this scramble to convert a 3rd and 4 running up the middle. He shows great instinct, decision making and athleticism. It’s a 20-yard run (he just needs to learn to slide at the end):

Again, I’ll keep saying it. The next video below is what a NFL quarterback looks like. There’s no RPO or dump-off or jet-screen here. This is a passer on 2nd and 9 going through his progressions (look at his helmet) and despite facing quick pressure right in his face (he gets levelled after the throw) he spots an open target and with zero hesitation getting the ball out on time and on target. And look at the receiver — this wasn’t a wide-open easy chuck into the flat. This is a first round play:

Most players get sacked on that play and it’s drive over.

Look at this throw on 4th and 8. Imagine if he doesn’t make this, with Alabama only holding a three-point lead in the fourth quarter:

He finished this drive with a red zone throw on 4th and goal to ice the game.

This is the quarterback of the year so far. Since the difficult game at Florida State on the opening weekend, where everyone played badly for Alabama and it was his first true start as the unchallenged quarterback of the team, his QBR is 87.3 from the following five games. That includes games against Missouri and Georgia on the road and the upstart Vanderbilt at home.

He has 18 total touchdowns and just one interception so far this season (the pick came on a fourth down where he might as well throw it anyway).

He is extremely impressive. He also takes snaps under center — something a lot of college QB’s never do.

If there’s one quibble it’s that he takes too many sacks. He needs to work on this but I’m tempted to say for the improv quality and playmaking, it’s a consolation prize to let him play with some freedom.

I read a piece a few days ago where Jordan Reid for ESPN ranked Moore, Mendoza and Sellers as the three ‘hottest’ draft eligible quarterbacks in college football.

Nobody should be ranked higher than Simpson at quarterback right now and it’s not close. If I was a GM being told by the owner I must draft a quarterback at all costs in 2026, this is the player I would choose. Garrett Nussmeier has been too injured to properly assess and has failed to remove the ugly turnovers from his game. John Mateer has rushed back from injury too quickly and didn’t look close to being right against Texas. Arkansas’ Taylen Green would be a good day-two bet if I had that freedom to wait.

If I didn’t, Simpson’s the guy. I just hope when he gets the hype that the others have been afforded, he’ll consider staying in college. There is no need to rush to the NFL and a second year starting at Alabama would be wise. Hone your craft, live through positive and negative experiences. Enjoy college. Then turn pro.

At least with his technical quality you can understand why he might feel like he’s ready for the NFL. Moore isn’t close to being ready, neither is Sellers.

It’s not working for Garrett Nussmeier

He came into the season the legit QB1 for his class because he threw the highest number of NFL throws last season. However, either his mind is scrambled at the moment and he’s forcing things to try and impress, the injuries have just taken their toll and he shouldn’t be out there or he’s just a player who will always press and making mistakes.

Against South Carolina he had a bad overthrow on an interception, then a poor red zone pick. He started the season well but the mistakes have returned and he hasn’t taken the step forward he was hoping to in 2025. In the right system I still think he can shine — and that’d be a Shanahan/McVay/O’Connell type scheme. If he lasts to the middle rounds he could even end up being something of a steal. But it seems unlikely he will go in the top-50 based on what we’re seeing at the moment.

He wasn’t as bad as LaNorris Sellers in this game though. Again, he should either return to South Carolina or transfer somewhere he can develop because at the moment he’s just a tools-based project.

Taylen Green remains interesting

Every time I watch Arkansas I half expect Green to have a bad performance and ground his stock. Yet even during blowouts, it’s been hard to pin anything on the quarterback. He has a decent arm and he has shown an ability to make explosive plays. He’s a genuine threat as a runner and I maintain that there’s a bit of Colin Kaepernick to his playing style — although his throwing mechanics are superior.

I think there’s half a chance he could be a day two player who, for the right team, could emerge as a handy starter. Physically he has what you need in the modern NFL. He ranks second in college for QBR (90.1) and EPA (52.3).

Makai Lemon is a quality receiver

Once again he showed off a great skill-set in USC’s easy win against Michigan. Body control, ball-tracking, concentration, hands, speed. Lemon had nine catches for 93 yards and a score.

Here’s the touchdown and as you can see, he’s really had to contort his body in traffic to make the grab:

I think in a typical draft class he’d likely go somewhere between 25-40 but in 2026, with such a dearth of good options, he could go earlier.

Mike Washington Jr is a running back to watch

The Arkansas transfer is big, physical, finishes runs but also has some quickness and ability to dodge tacklers. He really stood out against Tennessee so I watched some more of his stuff over the last few days. There’s a player here.

Not many runners have this kind of burst at a listed 6-2 and 223lbs:

Bobby Petrino, the interim Head Coach at Arkansas, has compared him to Knile Davis — a former third round pick in 2013. Washington Jr is one to watch, especially if the Seahawks need to add a back next year.

Other notes

— I had Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt on my board last year as a third rounder and in his last two performances against Iowa and Oregon he’s showing why he could go in that range. I’m not convinced he’ll be an amazing tester with a high NFL ceiling. However, he is technically good and runs clever, crisp routes. He understands what he’s doing and plays with a competitive edge. He’s reliable (only two drops for the season). I like him.

— I’m less sure why Oregon tight end Kenyon Sidiq is appearing in the top-15 of mocks. Sure, he looks athletic and compact. Yet in the big game on Saturday he had one catch for 13 yards until a garbage time eight-yard reception. You’d like to think an offense like Oregon’s, which featured Terrance Ferguson in big games frequently, would get him more involved if he justified that type of projection. The desperation to ‘find’ names this year has been on a different level.

— A different Oregon player is very interesting. A’Mauri Washington the defensive tackle had a fantastic bull-rush against Indiana showing his great combination of power and mobility to walk an interior lineman back into the quarterback:

It’s rare to see this level of quickness on a player listed at 6-3 and 330lbs:

Washington ranked #4 on Bruce Feldman’s latest freaks list, reportedly running at 20.89mph and vertical jumping 36 inches. Now it’s worth noting in other games this season I haven’t noticed him that much. He isn’t a big pressure or sack artist. At the moment he’s more potential than game-wrecker and at the next level he might be more useful as an athletic nose who takes a bit of time to work things out.

Even so — he’s doing things most people his size can’t. That needs to be noted.

— Sometimes you’ve got to save a player from himself. Yes, Oklahoma probably started dreaming about winning the SEC and going on a great run before John Mateer hurt his hand and needed surgery. It was clear watching on Saturday he wasn’t ready to play. Oklahoma were awful and so was the QB as they lost to Texas. His accuracy was off all day — throwing behind (including on his second of three interceptions). His dynamic playmaking was totally stymied. It was sad, really, to watch a player who is so much better than this endure such a performance. He only turns 22 next April so he might be back for the Sooners in 2026.

— Drew Allar is undraftable. It’s been trending that way for a while but the latest horror show against Northwestern followed by a season-ending injury confirms it. He’ll probably have to consider returning to school next year to repair his stock. Whatever they’ve been teaching him at Penn State is just atrocious. We’ve talked all year about his tendency to throw late. Look at this interception from Saturday:

Look how late it is. He keeps doing this — holding onto the ball, delaying. The target looks like he’s shaping for a back-shoulder throw but it’s so late there’s no chance. It’s a sad story really, just how far he’s fallen this year. But you can’t draft him playing this way and now with an injury. It’s rough.

— Last week I mentioned Arvell Reese the linebacker at Ohio State could be another Abdul Carter. Look at this rush from the edge against Illinois for further validation of that:

He’s getting more and more opportunities to rush for the Buckeye’s. It’s the type of rush that’s worth noting. He isn’t just running around a limited tackle with speed. He’s attacking that tackle and just bossing him back into the quarterback with power. If you can do that at 240lbs, with a quick-twitchy athletic frame, he can be a huge weapon. He’s one of the few players this year that you can say with a degree of certainty will be a high pick if he declares.

— It’s good to see Jalen Catalon playing well again. The safety is on his fourth team now after spells at Arkansas, Texas, UNLV and now Missouri. The injuries over the years have clearly taken their toll and I’m not sure he’ll be drafted when the time comes to turn pro. I thought he performed well against Alabama. He’ll be 25-years-old by the time of the 2026 draft.

Potential trade targets for the Seahawks to consider before the deadline

October 13, 2025 / / 0 Comments

“Trades will happen this week”

Those were the words of Adam Schefter on Monday, following on from his weekend report that as many as a dozen players could swap teams between now and November 4th.

I’d be surprised if the Seahawks don’t do something. Look at their history. The moves for Ernest Jones and Leonard Williams. Adding players like Quandre Diggs, Carlos Dunlap and Duane Brown in the past.

There are going to be opportunities coming and some teams are already at the point where rebuilding is being embraced.

The Titans fired Brian Callahan today, effectively writing off their season. They’ll spend the next few weeks evaluating for the future and deciding who they want to be their next Head Coach.

The Miami Dolphins might be the next to make a change, with Mike McDaniel increasingly under pressure. Meanwhile, at 0-6, league insiders are suggesting every player could be available on the Jets’ roster.

Schefter said the Browns are willing to consider making deals (they are 1-5) and it won’t be a shock if the Saints (also 1-5) are willing to make some moves as they need to rebuild their roster.

Previously I suggested Devin Lloyd, only to see him literally the next day claim two interceptions against the 49ers. The Jacksonville linebacker then had a pick-six against the Chiefs. My thought process was the Jaguars’ new GM came from the Rams and they are allergic to paying linebackers. In a contract year, the Jags might be inclined to get what they can for Lloyd if he’s not part of their long-term plan. I think, given the way he’s playing, they are obviously less likely to do this now. They don’t have a first round pick next year but they’re expected to have 12 total picks in 2026 — making it less likely they need to acquire any extras now. The Rams really don’t value linebackers though.

Then there was Maxx Crosby. His contract is surprisingly easy to trade — it would only cost the Raiders $5m in dead money this year and next. The Raiders left the door open with Crosby’s extension — but a two-sack performance in a much-needed win against the Titans all but eliminates that prospect for now. If they lose their next two games against the Chiefs (A) and Jaguars (H) perhaps they’d consider it at 2-6 before the deadline?

I’ve looked around and tried to be creative with suggestions. Here are some more names to discuss. Some will be more exciting than others but I’m just throwing them out there…

L’Jarius Sneed (CB, Titans)
It’s not that long ago that Sneed was viewed as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. In 2024 the Chiefs even placed the franchise tag on him. However, with no extension forthcoming and some injury concerns emerging, Kansas City sought to move him. They did so for a third rounder and a pick swap. It hasn’t really worked in Tennessee but that might be down to the Titans opting for ‘shambolic franchise’ as an identity. He’s 28-years-old and more competent than great these days — but that might work for the Seahawks. His base salary is such that by my reckoning he might cost about $11m for the rest of the season, so he’s not cheap. Yet the Seahawks have $22m available in effective cap space. If they want an upgrade at outside corner — and it seems pretty clear that’s a big need at the moment — they could do worse than seeing if the Titans will let Sneed go on the cheap. The question is has Sneed gone beyond his peak or does he still has some good football left in him?

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Dolphins)
He was traded back to the Dolphins from the Steelers in exchange for Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and a pick swap. If Miami is considering a rebuild, is a soon-to-be 29-year-old Fitzpatrick likely to be part of their plan? The injury to Julian Love has created a problem for the Seahawks and really tested their depth. Fitzpatrick is also multi-faceted and can wear a number of hats. Could he provide some depth and security for the rest of the season? His base salary in 2025 is only $1.25m. The only concern is — the Steelers traded him away, somewhat surprisingly, for a reason — amid concerns about low effort play having been shifted to nickel last year. That doesn’t sound very ‘Mike Macdonald’. He’s still playing at a decent level though.

Sauce Gardner (CB, Jets)
This would be seen as a big splash and would likely cost a high pick in 2026. Gardner has not lived up to the hype from his rookie season so you’d need to determine how much of that is down to the player and how much is it being stuck on a terrible Jets team. If you believe in the talent and think you can turn him into an elite corner, you consider the move. As with Crosby, it’s surprisingly manageable for the Jets to deal him despite his recent contract extension. The Jets would take on an $11m dead cap hit in 2026 and $8m this year. That’s not back-breaking if you’d prefer the picks. They have a new GM who is watching the current roster go winless in six — so they might want to trade anyone to get stock for next year. Yet the new regime were the ones who extended Gardner so unless everyone truly is ‘up for sale’ — the chances are they won’t trade him.

Logan Wilson (LB, Bengals)
A former blog favourite, Wilson’s play has regressed in Cincinnati recently. After spending two good draft picks on linebackers this year, there’s a chance the Bengals are ready to move on. Some fans have suggested they should try and get ‘anything’ for Wilson. That doesn’t sound like a glowing review of his current play but nobody seems to be playing well on defense in Cincy. He only turned 29 in June so he’s not old and could provide useful depth and experience at linebacker. It appears Tyrice Knight (two snaps vs Jacksonville) has been benched for Drake Thomas, who played well. Could they do with more at this spot? Has Wilson got enough left in the tank to provide more? If they think so, they might be able to get him for virtually nothing. I’d prefer Pete Werner or Demario Davis in New Orleans but Wilson might be more readily available. His base salary is only $5.4m for the season and he’s already played six games.

Keion White (DE, Patriots)
Seen by many as a breakout candidate under Mike Vrabel, the opposite has happened for White this season. His role has been gradually reduced and he didn’t play against the Saints on Sunday with an elbow injury. He’s in year three of his rookie deal and might want a change of scenery if he doesn’t fit what Vrabel is looking for. Furthermore, the Patriots are doing quite well without him. The Seahawks have shown interest in having bigger defensive ends — using Mike Morris and occasionally Jared Ivey. DeMarcus Lawrence isn’t small either. Could they take a look at White if he’s available on the cheap? He had five sacks last season. It’d probably depend on how they viewed him in the draft. He was the 46th pick in 2023, with the Seahawks taking Derick Hall (who they had a first round grade on) at #37.

Adding a veteran pass-rusher
If Trey Hendrickson becomes available before the deadline (and the Bengals will likely let things play out with Joe Flacco for another game or two first), you’d have to imagine the Seahawks will put a call in. The problem is, the 49ers and Eagles are even more needy at the position and will probably be prepared to be very aggressive. A bidding war would be challenging. Hendrickson also hurt his back on Sunday. Would they consider a Cam Jordan or Bradley Chubb? Potentially — but Sunday’s showing in Jacksonville might shift the priority to the secondary.

Things I don’t think are likely
I can’t see the Seahawks acquiring a new right guard. The Browns are supposedly open to moving some of their linemen but let’s not forget what Wyatt Teller did to Uchenna Nwosu. I’ve always liked Joel Bitonio, going way back to the 2014 draft, but he just turned 34 and has played one solitary NFL snap at right guard (six years ago). As mediocre as the 2026 draft class currently looks, there are some good offensive line options. They may stick with what they’ve got this year. I would’ve liked the idea of adding Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed a few weeks ago, given both know the Kubiak offense. However, Seattle’s supporting cast has shown using a decent pick on either isn’t really necessary.

Instant reaction: Seahawks win on the road again, beat the Jaguars

October 12, 2025 / / 0 Comments

There are several reasons to feel really good about this win.

It’s never easy travelling from Seattle to Florida and then playing your best ball. This is always a case of getting the job done. They did that — continuing an excellent run on the road.

It’s a win against a team with a lot of momentum and, prior to today, a 4-1 record. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes lost in Jacksonville on Monday. Coming here and winning, simply because the Jaguars didn’t look great on the day, shouldn’t be underestimated.

The defense was embarrassed last week and ruined what should’ve been a winning display from the offense. There were moments where the coverage struggles continued again — yet overall this was a massive improvement. The defensive line led the way with seven sacks — one more than Jacksonville had given up in their previous five games combined. The entire defensive front played very well.

Sam Darnold continues to play at a high level. His chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most exciting aspect of the team currently. As JSN moves himself securely into a top-five player at his position in the NFL, Darnold is elevating himself into a strong position too. There are a lot of bad quarterbacks out there and very few very good ones. The Seahawks, so far, have played a blinder signing Darnold.

It’s also worth noting the supporting cast are delivering at a good enough level to allay any fears about whether they were a weapon or two short.

I’ve seen some complaints about the play-calling which I don’t agree with. You’re always going to run the ball in the fourth quarter when you’re leading 20-6 or 20-12. Seattle’s problem wasn’t being too conservative — it’s that they’re still working out how to run the ball consistently and competently. That’s something that still needs a lot of work.

I also think the trade market is going to have to come up with some answers in the secondary. Their depth isn’t good enough to cope with a couple of injuries. They need more.

They also need to start winning their home games. I know it’s stating the obvious but when you’re this good on the road, you can have a truly incredible season if you handle your business at home. They’ve got to get that right, starting with the Texans up next.

This is a wide open NFL season and the Seahawks are one of the teams in the mix, which is a good feeling.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week Six vs Jacksonville)

October 12, 2025 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Life sure comes at you quickly in the NFL.  The ‘Any Given Sunday’ trope is alive and well this season for all teams — and that includes the Seahawks and Jaguars.

A brilliant game by Sam Darnold was undone by a secondary plagued by injuries and an equally brilliant game by Baker Mayfield.  The ‘Seahawks cannot win at home’ narrative is alive and well unfortunately.  The silver lining might be they can keep the ‘Seahawks are excellent on the road’ narrative going.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville recorded a signature win in prime time against a legacy team and are riding a wave of positivity at 4-1 under the leadership of new Head Coach Liam Coen.

Fuelling the Jaguars’ early-season success is an incredible run of takeaways on defense and an offense that relies on quick passing and some explosive running by Travis Etienne.

Both teams have a belief they can play with anyone.  Both also have new Offensive staffs that have been very effective and defenses that have more than their fair share of highlights.

You could argue Jacksonville has the edge from the momentum of beating Kansas City and the Seahawks have to fly across the country and play in warm, muggy weather with a 10am body clock.

You could equally argue that the Seahawks have the edge, given how they have already experienced a letdown at home and bounced back heartily on the road (Weeks 1-2) and that Jacksonville might have a bit of a letdown on a shorter week after winning such a hard-fought game.

It should be a fantastic matchup.  How can the Seahawks come away with a win?

Control the Game

There is a straight line between the Jags’ success and their ability to generate turnovers on defense.  It goes far beyond just keeping their opponents out of the end zone.

So far this season, the Jacksonville defense has only had to play 15 of their 311 snaps of football while behind on the scoreboard.  They have been able to force offenses into an unbalanced mix on offense.  No defense in the NFL has faced fewer rushing attempts through five games.

And yet when they do, they are conceding 4.6 yards per carry, good for only #22 in the NFL.  A well-executed run game plan (of which I think we can all agree the team is overdue on) can put a lot of pressure on both the Jags’ offense and defense.  Pressure that through five weeks, they have experienced very little of.

How would they respond?  They have not all that well so far:  In those fifteen snaps mentioned above, they are conceding an NFL-worst 8.87 yards per play.  Yes, that is an incredibly small sample size.  But if the Seahawks expand that sample size by using the run game to balance their offense, the odds swing dramatically in their favor.

That is not to suggest the Seahawks should come out and run the ball at a crazy rate.  But teams have been able to move the ball when they incorporate doses of running into their offense.  A series or two of some runs setting up some explosive pass plays to gain a lead early could be just the thing to turn this game on its head.

Bonus stat:  The Jags have conceded ten runs of ten yards or more so far this season.  Five of them have been by Quarterbacks scrambling.  They run a lot of zone defense, and running slants and crossers opens up space for scrambles to gain first downs and keep that clock moving.

How can the Seahawks control the game on defense?

Coen is constantly changing the eye level of defenses.  He loves to mix fly sweeps and screen passes that test the edges with runs between the tackles and quick slant passes in the middle.  And with the element of Brian Thomas being able to work downfield, there are multiple attack points that need to be defended on every play.

He has Trevor Lawrence making decisions very quickly, averaging 2.2 seconds from snap to throw when he drops back and his average depth of target is among the lowest as well.  As a result, he is facing a league-low 10% pressure rate.

The downside is in his fifth year, Lawrence is still a one-read Quarterback.

Coen has taken a lot of the burden of carrying an offense off of Lawrence’s shoulders.  The Seahawks need to put it all back on.

The Linebacking group and Nick Emmanwori will be key players.  Their speed will determine whether some of these screens and sweeps will be effective.  Edge players like Demarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu will also be critical in keeping their teammates clean and forcing those horizontal plays towards the sidelines.

Keeping the game in front of them and not allowing easy throws to gain chunks of yards will swing the control in their favor.

That is not to say Lawrence is some noodle-armed checkdown merchant.  He has the arm strength and touch to put the ball where he wants to at times.

But there are two major weaknesses the Seahawks can exploit by making the success of the offense dependent on his arm.

One, he is still regularly throwing interceptions.  In five games this season he has five.  It is a downside of his adjustment to yet another new offense and his crippling dependence on his first read.

And two, this:

Lawrence’s receivers are dropping balls at a prodigious rate.  It is only a matter of time before someone really makes them pay for it.

Win the Battle of the Backups

The injury reports this week were not great for the Seahawks.  Tariq Woolen and Derrick Hall will not play and key defenders Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love are doubtful.

We know what this means for the Seahawks, especially given the difficulties they had in the secondary last week.

Josh Jobe, Ty Okada, Shaq Griffin and Nathaniel Pritchett must come up with solid performances.  All the work we described above can be undone with some over the top deep passes to tilt the field.

Jacksonville has potential obstacles to overcome as well.

Brenton Strange was Lawrence’s top target in the passing game at the time he was injured.  He will miss this game.  While Hunter Long has had some clutch catches, he is a long way from filling Strange’s shoes.  Will having his top option out hinder their offense?

Also notable is Center Robert Hainsey is doubtful to play with a hamstring injury.  He has started all five games this year and been a very solid addition to the team.  Rookie Jonah Monheim would be the fill-in should Hainsey not be able to go.  Monheim had a few snaps against Chris Jones last week and would now face Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy.  If he is in, the Seahawks must take advantage and push the pocket into Lawrence’s lap.

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