Month: September 2010 (Page 2 of 3)

Jake Locker had a day to forget against Nebraska

Jake Locker (QB, Washington) vs Nebraska

Let me start by saying that as bad as Locker was in this game, it doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t going to be a high first round pick. Amongst all the suspensions and disappointing performances, the 2011 class of prospects have so far flattered to deceive. How Locker responds to this setback could just as easily define his stock next April as the Nebraska performance itself hampers it. He plays enough good teams between now and the new year that he can repair the damage done this weekend.

However, his performance against Nebraska was a horror show. He completed just 4/20 passes, registered 71 yards and threw two picks (a third was called back for a defensive hold). The stats alone paint a bad picture, but the tape simply enhanced the bad display. He miss-fired on many short/medium throws. He looked edgy in the pocket and too often locked onto receivers. He forced far too many throws. Overall it was not what you wanted to see from a fifth year senior touted as a potential #1 overall pick.

It started badly and got worse and Locker’s first throw just encapsulated his entire day. Despite having an age to sit in the pocket, he forces the pass into double coverage and is easily picked off by the Nebraska safety. It was an incomprehensible decision to even attempt the throw. He’s not under pressure and his deep receiver is clearly well covered. If nobody else is open, why didn’t he just throw it away? It set the tone for an afternoon of bad decisions.

For his second interception, he locks onto one receiver who is extremely well covered by a Cornhusker CB. The pass is never on, at no point in that play is the receiver in position to make the catch. Locker never realises this and simply tosses it out there on the slant. The cornerback is always in position to make the interception and deservedly it’s picked off and taken in for a defensive touchdown.

As the game went away from Washington, Locker’s game seemed to further drift. He started to toss throws up for grabs and his accuracy became even looser. It often gets said that Locker is hampered by his supporting cast, but for me – it was his supporting cast being let down by the star quarterback. Granted he was playing against a good defense, but there was no excuse for a performance so disjointed as this.

It’s too simplistic to say that Locker will ‘fall’ down boards now. Can he still go first overall? Of course. We’re three games into the new season. He has a chance to prove this was a freak one off, he has a chance to prove he’s better than this. However, I truly believe we’re looking at someone with a very high ceiling but is still developing as a pro-QB. Anyone who thinks Locker made the wrong decision in coming back to Washington needs to watch this game. He isn’t ready. Maybe he would’ve earned a nice sum for leaving early, but he’s not ready to start. He needs this season of games and I also think he needs to be red-shirted for 1-2 years when he is drafted. That could put some teams off on draft day, but others will look at Locker’s potential and see the long term benefits of him sitting for a couple of seasons. He can still be an early pick, he can still be a first round pick. But he has to do so much better.

Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) vs Georgia

Last year, my biggest issue with Mallett was his consistency. He could demolish weak opposition and put up the big numbers, but he struggled against the better teams (especially on the road). 34.3% (Alabama), 44.4% (Florida) and 35.3% (Ole Miss) away from Arkansas showed the kind of issues the 6’7″, 239lbs quarterback faced last year. This was his first real test of 2010, although it’s important to remember that last year he scored 5 TD’s and registered 408 yards in a losing effort against Georgia.

This was on the road though and Mallett previously hadn’t won away from Arkansas in the SEC. When I watched Mallett in 2009 I liked a lot of things. He has his critics and whilst I acknowledge he’s far from perfect, I came into this year thinking he was the top QB prospect legible for 2011. My opinion hasn’t changed after watching the Georgia game. Mallett completed 63.6% of his passes, scoring 3 TD’s and registering 380 passing yards.

Aside from two throws that should’ve been picked off, he generally made good decisions. Mallett has a brilliant arm and can make a full quota of pro-throws, but it’s the short stuff he needs to improve on. He showed much better touch on short/medium and underneath throws against Georgia and his game-winning pass with seconds remaining on a medium slant route was perfection (see it in the video below). He displayed immense poise in the pocket under pressure and kept his eyes downfield, especially on an inch perfect throw to his running back on a wheel route for a TD just before the end of the third quarter.

Mallett can make throws that a lot of NFL QB’s aren’t capable of because of his arm. Just before half time, he launched a 50-yard bomb downfield which dissected two defenders and hit his receiver absolutely on the money. Despite his size and a lot of inaccurate reports, he isn’t immobile despite his size. He avoids pressure well in the pocket and whilst he isn’t going to be ‘Big Ben’ at the next level, he’s not a statue and this isn’t an issue for me.

In fact ‘Big Ben’ is probably the best comparison I’d have for Mallett. Like Roethlisberger, he’ll have off-days at the next level. What Mallett needs to do when he does enter the NFL, is master the art of winning games despite this. Roethlisberger isn’t the most accurate passer or the most clinical, but he gets it done. It helps that he’s benefited from a well coached team with an elite defense – Mallett may never get that same luxury.

Right now I’d rank Mallett higher than the other quarterbacks legible for 2011. Andrew Luck likely won’t declare for me, but if he does I’m not convinced he isn’t an above average game manager. Jake Locker has a repair job to do and can still be the first QB taken next year, but this weekend has suggested to me he’s more of a long term project. Mallett will come into the NFL facing the same kind of lessons that most rookie’s encounter. But he has the physical talents to interest teams and concern pro-defenses. For someone who has a lot of critics, Mallett (in my opinion) deserves a much greater press.

There are unanswered questions about his work ethic and attitude, no doubt the pro-scouts will do their homework but for know, it’s important to concentrate on what we can actually judge – which is what we see on tape.

A day after my wedding, I’m back watching tape. I have a very understanding wife. Florida State were awful against Oklahoma and a potentially interesting encounter soon became a blow out. The Sooners scored nearly every time they touched the ball and it pumped all the pressure on the Seminoles offense to keep up. They couldn’t. It was a particularly bad day for quarterback Christian Ponder who absolutely extinguished any growing hype that he’s worthy of a top pick next April. Admittedly this was a game where his defense couldn’t stop a thrown beach-ball and FSU had to abandon the run early, but Ponder was still poor.

It started well enough with an opening offensive drive that led to a short touchdown run. The key play was a nice run by Ponder who dodged four defenders to get the ball to the one-yard line. After that it was a catalogue of errors. Where do we start? It’s tough to decide because it was THAT bad. For starters, as agile as Ponder is he was far too keen to tuck it and run when OU brought pressure. Whether it was impatience of frustration, too many times he made one quick read to see his receiver covered and ran only to be sacked.

Decision making was a problem throwing the ball too. He threw into traffic and receivers well covered. On the two interceptions he basically gifted Oklahoma the ball with astonishing neglect. He overthrew short routed and doesn’t have the ideal arm to get the ball deep and take advantage of his wide-outs speed. He stared down his receivers regularly and was pretty inaccurate throughout. Circumstances accepted, this was just a reckless display all round. Struggling when your team is being beaten badly is one thing but to implode in the process isn’t what you want from a top draft pick. It’s only one game but it’s against the best opposition that Ponder will be judged. On this evidence he isn’t even a second round pick.

It was better news for Rodney Hudson who is so easily the best interior lineman in college football it’s not even close. He dominates in every single aspect. I appreciate that his size will put off a of teams and he may not be able to dominate NFL defenders like he does in CFB. However, for a ZBS team that doesn’t mind smaller lineman, he’s worth a shot. Talent wise he’s a top-20 type guy who won’t go that early because of his position. Consistently at the snap the other four FSU offensive lineman would create a pocket, but would be pushed back 4-5 yards. Rodney Hudson would still be blocking his guy at the line of scrimmage ahead of everyone else.

Hudson’s cut blocking is above average for a college guard. With 7:13 left in first quarter he delivers a perfect cut block to completely eliminate the inside rusher, creating an age for Ponder to complete a simple pitch and catch for a first down. On the very next play, he jumps into the second level and destroys a linebacker with another inch perfect cut block to help his running back make a 4 yard run. He could probably play for Seattle against San Francisco today and perform to a good level. He’s pro-ready, immensely talented and if the Seahawks maintain the Alex Gibbs mantra (that remains to be seen) Hudson should be on the team’s radar as a long-term partner to Russell Okung.

Akeem Ayers impressed, but UCLA couldn't stop Daniel Thomas

UCLA’s offense was difficult to watch last year and they relied a lot on a good defense to win games. Having lost Brian Price to the draft this year, could the Bruins maintain that quality? Initial thoughts based on yesterday’s defeat to Kansas State is that not much has changed – the offense still stutters and the defense looks good. One prospect who interests me more than a lot of others this year is outside linebacker/defensive end Akeem Ayers.

With the Seahawks now using a LEO pass rusher off the edge, Ayers fits the bill at 6’4″ and 255lbs. He had an excellent game despite his team’s 31-22 defeat and is one to watch. He might be Seattle’s best bet for a playmaker off the edge after UNC’s Robert Quinn (who missed the opening weekend through suspension). The first thing that you notice are his instincts – he makes quick, accurate decisions and that has helped him make a lot of big plays in his college career. Nothing different in 2010 so far – a recovered fumble early on being a perfect example, simply reacting quicker than anyone else to dive on the ball for a key turnover which led to an eventual touchdown run for QB Kevin Prince.

With eleven minutes left in the first half, Ayers lined up on the left hand side on the LOS in space. He moves to the left initially before engaging the right tackle. Ayers is able to get round the lineman with good hand use to jab the tackle and get inside. He gets to the quarterback just as he delivers the throw and instinctively gets his hands to the ball, tipping the ball high into the air and he’s unfortunate not to make a diving interception.

With seconds left until half-time, he showed why he might be a legitimate option as an edge rusher. He gets into top speed quickly from the snap and just flat out beat the left tackle from the right side, gliding past him with consummate ease. Only a strong second effort from the tackle to push him one handed off balance stops Ayers from recording a big sack, but his presence forces a bad throw which sails out of bounds. On the very next play Ayers lines up in a prevent scheme as part of a three-man defensive line, this time from the left hand side. He runs to the right tackle and delivers a perfectly effortless spin move to embarrass the tackle before chasing down the quarterback and physically shoving 228lbs running back Daneil Thomas to the turf. The hail mary attempt is delivered but incomplete, but it was interesting to see how much UCLA value Ayers as a rusher in that he was the one man attack with nearly everyone else in coverage.

Ayers recorded his only official sack of the game by again beating the right tackle off the edge with 9:19 remaining and throwing the quarterback to the ground. Again it’s good hand use, putting a punch on the tackle’s chest to jolt him back before bursting round the edge to make the sack.

What I also like about Ayers is despite giving up some size, he’s a very sure tackler and does a good job disengaging blockers. He lines up all over the field, but predominantly in this game at linebacker. He’s shown previously that he can cope in coverage (four interceptions last year), which essentially means you can leave him in for a lot of play calls. He’s got fluid hips and moves around freely, K-State very rarely threw in his direction because he did a very good job of taking away a target over the middle.

It wasn’t 100% positive though, he was caught well by the full back off the edge on a big TD run to start the third quarter. This came just moments after a bit of indecision in dealing with an option pass allowed running back Thomas to break off a big run.

Ayers is an instinctive playmaker with good overall talents who can be solid against the pass and run. He could be worthy of a first round grade with a lot of teams looking for outside linebackers who can rush and cover and he’s every bit a potential LEO edge rusher. Rather than focus on over rated prospects like Greg Romeus (DE, Pittsburgh) I’d suggest taking a look at UCLA’s Ayers.

I’m going to watch the tape of LSU vs UNC in a few moments. Bruce Carter (LB, UNC) and Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) will be the main focus of attention. It appears Peterson picked up an injury during the game and left the field several times, including during North Carolina’s 97-yard TD score. Robert Quinn (DE, UNC), Marvin Austin (DT, UNC) and Greg Little (WR, UNC) all missed the game through suspension. Another top 2011 draft prospect – A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) – was also held out on opening weekend amid more agent issues, although it does appear Green is completely innocent and was merely held out as a precaution in an easy win for the Bulldogs against Lafayette.

It was a good start for Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder. Despite throwing an early interception, he scored four touchdowns and registered 167 passing yards in just a half of football against Samford. The competition level wasn’t great but this is a good start for another prospect who has the mobility, smarts and arm strength that will interest the Seahawks. On a couple of scores Ponder showed his ability to throw accurately on the move, which would be key in a Seahawks offense that will use a lot of play action and bootlegs. He also mixed up a lot of his passes, knowing when to take something off the ball and use touch and also when to put some force into his action. Ponder could gatecrash the top-20 if he can continue performing like this.

Jake Locker, the favorite of many to go first overall next year, had a mixed opening weekend. The stat line was good in Washington’s defeat to BYU – 266 yards and two total touchdowns. CBS Sportsline’s Rob Rang says Locker showed off his obvious talentsbut also his inconsistencies. I need to see Locker this year before making a judgement myself, but I think it’s far from a lock he’ll go first overall next April. I’ve been sceptical too of Stanford’s Andrew Luck, but he made a solid start against Sacramento State with four TD’s and 316 yards. If he can do that against the better teams he’ll face this year, it’ll make it more likely he declares in 2011 and goes high in the draft.