Month: May 2023 (Page 2 of 2)

I was looking forward to studying the 2024 quarterbacks. For weeks we’ve been hearing how ‘next year is better’. I wanted to find out if it’s true.

Today I’m going to talk about Caleb Williams, Travis Jordan and Quinn Ewers in some detail, while referencing Michael Penix Jr and Drake Maye (who I covered in part one).

Williams and Maye are being talked about as the class of the draft, far ahead of anyone else (including all of the 2023 quarterbacks).

I’ve watched at least three games of the players above and I’ve watched every snap Ewers has played at Texas.

If I were doing a ranking based on what I’ve seen so far, this would be it:

#1 Caleb Williams (USC)

Big gap

#2 Michael Penix Jr (Washington)
#3 Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
#4 Drake Maye (North Carolina)

If Rattler can produce a full season of what he showed at the end of last season, he could easily reach the status of QB2. The talent is there. It’s a mentality and composure thing with Rattler, I suspect, that has held him back. Has he matured and settled down? If so, he can be a top prospect. I’m really looking forward to watching him this year.

So far I would put Penix Jr at #2 and I think there’s a huge gap between the brilliant Williams and the rest.

I would also say, so far, that Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would be above quarterbacks #2-4 on my list. I would probably also put Anthony Richardson ahead of them based on his obscene upside and I would argue that Penix Jr, Maye and Rattler show some of the same pro’s and con’s that Will Levis flashed. They can do great things but they’re also capable of some real head-scratching moments. The difference is I’d argue Levis’ situation at Kentucky was far less conducive to success than anything faced at Washington or UNC.

It’s important to stress, these are early thoughts I’m sharing at the start of the summer. I will try to watch all of their games before the 2023 season begins. Then there’s a full season to digest and analyse. Things can and will change.

Increasingly though this looks like a deeper class than this year (mainly because so many of the 2023 eligible group returned to school) but the idea it’s far better at the top of round one is a myth, in my opinion.

I was looking forward to studying Caleb Williams because so much has been said about him. I was a bit disappointed with Drake Maye after all the buzz. It’s clear he can do some great things and pull off some great throws — but he also had a lot more misses than I expected.

Williams, I’m pleased to say, lived up to the hype.

Some of the improvisation he pulls off has to be seen to be believed. We’re talking about being chased by multiple defenders in the backfield, virtually blanketed, and pulling off numerous Houdini moves to extend plays. Not only will he escape pressure but against all the laws of physics, he can then — usually off balance and on the run with defenders breathing down his neck — launch the ball on a dime to an outlet 20-30 yards downfield.

To say some of the stuff he does is miraculous barely does it justice.

I have never seen a player be this difficult to bring down when he scrambles. Yet he matches unique elusiveness with a never before seen ability to max out his escapability with throws that just don’t make sense. There are a couple of passes on tape that look like Madden plays, where the computer just lets you throw at full velocity on the run on easy mode. Williams does it in real life.

There are scrambles where you see him step backwards and various defenders will get a hand on him but they can’t bring him down. Whether he’ll be able to do this at the same level in the NFL remains to be seen. It’s pretty f-ing exciting to watch in college, though.

Technically he throws with brilliant base and his footwork is good. His accuracy is very impressive and he makes difficult throws into tight windows look easy. He has a knack for putting it where only the receiver can make the play. His pocket manipulation when he isn’t scrambling is top notch. I love the way he squares his shoulders to every read. It also helps show off that he’s actually making progressions because his body movements are clear.

He’s not just a scrambler he’s also a very strong runner and can make people miss in the open-field. He can do the conventional stuff, throwing with timing and anticipation. When the ball needs to get out he can get it out quickly.

Caleb Williams is the ultimate playmaker and he has the potential to be incredible. His biggest test this year will be the pressure of expectation. He will be seen as the 2024 #1 pick from today until he proves otherwise. How does he handle the attention? Can he lead USC to glory to just tie everything together?

Nobody I’ve watched so far comes remotely close to Williams’ level. I have Penix Jr as QB2 at the minute because he has special arm talent. He can do things that the others can’t and challenge opponents in a way NFL teams are going to love. I know he plays in ‘the offense‘ (this is my new way of describing the UW, Tennessee, Ohio State etc style systems, please always read it in the same voice ‘the Critical Drinker’ uses for ‘the message‘) but you see clear evidence on tape of world class throws downfield, challenging any 1v1 coverage on the outside with a combination of placement and perfect velocity. Penix Jr can also vary his throwing speeds and deliver with touch when necessary. This particularly shows up well in the red zone.

He has a tendency to fall away as he delivers the pass and it’s a quirky release but the end result is consistently good. Unlike Hendon Hooker a year ago, he isn’t constantly throwing to wide-open receivers. Anyone looking to utilise vertical passing concepts and lead an explosive offense will be massively intrigued by Penix Jr’s ability on deep throws. He is such a big-play threat — and yet he does a good enough job managing things on a short and intermediate level that he isn’t a one-trick pony.

I legitimately think the Seahawks will be intrigued by him. He seems to have the personality that would fit the locker room. He has the arm. He’s certainly mobile enough to extend plays and throw on the run. There are moments where he misreads things or throws into dangerous areas. As I said in part one, eight interceptions in this offense in the PAC-12 is too many. Hooker had five in two years in the SEC. I think five maximum should be the target in 2023. If he can do that, then he has a perfectly legitimate chance to be the second quarterback on many boards.

This isn’t to hammer Drake Maye or write him off. There are some beautiful throws on tape, some magical moments. There are just way too many ‘WTF’ misses. He also isn’t playing in a difficult conference with loaded defensive play. I’d like to see a more rounded consistency and just getting the basics right — making the easy throws, making the right reads — to get to the point where all this ‘top-three lock’ talk is justified.

Florida State’s Travis Jordan was an interesting watch. Firstly, he’s a terrific athlete. He’s able to create big moments when he runs. He had an amazing scramble against Florida that was Caleb Williams-esque. He’s a playmaker when he escapes the pocket and his running ability will be seen as a big positive.

As a passer, his accuracy is hit and miss. He throws with a good base and his arm strength is good. I would suggest he needs his technique to be right to make accurate and explosive throws. He’s not one of these freaky physical monsters who can generate amazing torque and downfield bombs with non-ideal mechanics. He can’t wing it, basically, like the Williams’ can. That’s not a big flaw though.

There are too many turnover worthy plays at the moment. I watched the Florida, Clemson and Georgia Tech games and there were a lot of balls thrown into blanket coverage that could’ve gone either way. I wrote in my notes ‘there isn’t a tight window he doesn’t like’. I think he forces things a bit too much and has risky throws, often in the dangerous short and intermediate level where big returns are possible.

On the plus side, I like the look of his post and seam throws. He also throws well to the sideline on the mid-range and when the scheme is ticking, he executes with good timing. When he also has a clean pocket he can diagnose properly and make big chunk plays. A wheel route against Georgia Tech stuck in the memory simply because it’s the type of defensive breakdown Drake Maye tends to miss, getting caught up on a primary target. Jordan spotted the opportunity and delivered.

There are too many tipped passes. I haven’t worked out why but there a lot of tipped balls that again contribute to what felt like a high number of turnover worthy plays.

I do wonder about his ceiling and ability to maybe put his team on his back. Against Clemson they got behind early and then every series felt like a collection of dump-offs and short range plodding throws that didn’t go anywhere. When they needed some sizzle to get things going, it took until garbage time to make it happen. I need to watch some other tougher games to properly get a read here.

I didn’t like the way he throws a fade. On back-to-back plays against Clemson, for example, he threw the first fade short and the second one too high.

One moment that really did stand out was a fumble by the running back on the five-yard line, scooped up by a linebacker with a run for a touchdown in front of him. Jordan raced back and was the player to make the TD-saving tackle at his own 25-yard-line. Little things like that you just need to see.

I’m intrigued by him, absolutely. He has the skills necessary to be on the 2023 radar. It’d be good to see him drive FSU back to being a big threat in college football this year and be the team to beat in the ACC.

I’ll finish with Quinn Ewers, having now watched all of his 2022 games and the 2023 Texas Spring Game. He is without a doubt one of the biggest teases I’ve ever seen. There’s a lot to like about his brilliant whip-like release and arm strength. You see technical throws where he reads the defense and delivers perfectly like a top-level pro-quarterback. He makes throws with no balance or base and just delivers with core strength and it’s incredibly impressive. When he’s ‘on it’ he looks naturally gifted.

But my word, the Quinn Ewwwwww-ers nickname is justified. I don’t think I’ve seen so many misses before. People complained about Anthony Richardson’s accuracy and I’ve got no idea what they’d say about Ewers in 2022. There are so many overthrows it’s ridiculous. Even the little screens and dump-offs are wide of the mark sometimes. There are far too many turnover worthy plays. He overshoots wide open receivers on easy throws, sometimes for would-be touchdowns.

The offense he led just ground to a halt in the second half of big games (Oklahoma State, Kansas State) after good starts. It took him a whole quarter to complete a pass against TCU (if you don’t include the interception he threw into double coverage). He was shut-out against TCU in the first half and only scored a field goal in the second. The number of overthrown passes against TCU had me shouting at the computer screen.

His timing can be late and off. I mentioned the wheel-route by Travis Jordan a moment ago. Ewers had Bijan Robinson wide open on a similar play with the defender on the floor having fallen over. Ewers didn’t even look at him and checked down instead.

You can’t talk about Ewers as a first round prospect based on his tape last year. He’s young, I get it. He deserves time to settle in and develop. By all accounts he is a committed and determined person and will work to improve. He also has the physical tools and natural technique to be very good if he puts it together. I saw some of the same issues though in the Spring Game and I wonder if a problem is brewing for him. He looks like someone who’s going to need at least three years at this to work things out. Yet after this season, what happens? Texas can’t afford to have Arch Manning sitting for multiple years. Does Ewers transfer again?

There’s a lot of pressure on him to succeed and keep his job, plus develop, plus deliver on his potential enough to be ready for the NFL. I fear for him. There’s something there but at the moment, he looks like someone who’s right at the beginning of a long process.

My next group to study will include Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward. I’ve already got all of the information I need on Tyler Van Dyke (I really wish he’d transfer away from Mario Cristobal).

If you’ve enjoyed the blog this draft season and want to support the site via Patreon — (click here)

I think a lot of us thought that after the draft, there might be an opportunity for the Seahawks to bring back Poona Ford or Al Woods. Maybe even both.

Instead they’re heading for the AFC East, joining the Bills and Jets respectively.

It leaves the Seahawks a bit thin up front but there is some perspective to be had.

I mentioned this on the stream with Jeff Simmons yesterday. The 2013 Seahawks D-line is known for its depth but if you actually look at the defensive tackle position, it’s surprisingly thin.

Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Clinton McDonald and Jordan Hill were the only pure DT’s on the roster. They used Red Bryant as a big defensive end on early downs.

Nobody had heard of McDaniel when he arrived, while McDonald was a cheap addition to try and add some situational pressure. Hill was a mid-round pick. Mebane was the only consistent, proven veteran.

The current roster actually compares favourably with Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, Cameron Young, Bryan Mone and Myles Adams. They’re also supposedly trying to turn Mike Morris into a three-technique or 3-4 end.

The true depth of the 2013 line was down to the pass rush rotation off the edge. They had Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril as starters, they rotated in Michael Bennett and had Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa on the roster too.

This year, they now have a rotation with promise if not the same level of proven quality. Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe and Derick Hall are a good quartet with Tyreke Smith and Alton Robinson also in the background.

For that reason, I’m not sure the concerns about Seattle’s defensive front are warranted. Although they’re sticking to the 3-4 DNA, Pete Carroll has hinted at further use of hybrid fronts and systems. They could easily line-up on early downs with Jarran Reed and Cameron Young at defensive tackle, Dre’Mont Jones and Mike Morris at end then play one of the rushers at linebacker. That would provide ample size up front to defend the run. For obvious passing situations, we could see Jones and Morris play up the middle with two edge rushers. I could keep going. They have options.

It’s just not conventional. They don’t have a traditional nose tackle with massive size and two traditional 3-4 ends. The nose tackle, at the moment, is set to be a rookie who weighs 304lbs. Tony McDaniel did a good job anchoring the interior a decade ago and he wasn’t 340lbs.

I also think Morris, for a fifth rounder, could be a legit contributor this year. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he comes in and forges a role for himself. He can be in the rotation and actually cause a few problems up front. He’s the type of player the Steelers have typically turned into a very useful 3-4 end.

I said during the draft that I think there’s a reasonable chance Cameron Young ends up being as good, if not better, than Keeanu Benton. I don’t think there’s a big difference between the two. The Seahawks splurged on Jones to be their game-wrecking interior presence and it’ll be up to him to be a difference maker, which he’s capable of.

I would prefer a bit more of a battle-tested presence up front and I think, come next year, they’ll need to look at the $40m being spent at safety and transfer some of that to the defensive line. They’ve backed themselves into a corner by paying too much at safety and that’ll need to be rectified. There’s not much they can do now, though.

Even so, there’s further perspective to be had here.

New England had the third ranked defense per DVOA in 2022. Their interior defenders consisted of Christian Barmore (PFF grade — 68.6), Daniel Ekuale (60.1), Lawrence Guy (53.5) and Davon Godchaux (53.1). They succeeded without outstanding interior play or great depth.

The Bills ranked fourth on defense. They only had DaQuan Jones (73.6) with a grade above 70.

It’s easy to focus on the 49ers and Eagles, or Chris Jones with Kansas City, and think you need a cluster of stars and big-time game-wreckers up front to succeed on defense. The Seahawks didn’t have that in 2013 and some of the better performing units in the NFL last season didn’t have it either.

The key is to play within scheme, make sure the rookies get up to speed quickly, get something out of Jones as a pass rusher and perform better at the perimeter.

I’m not sure there’s anything left they can do. Curtis Allen is working on a cap update but a cursory glance at the numbers makes for scary reading. The Seahawks essentially need to create $4.79m just to be able to sign their rookie class. That’s before making any new signings. I’m not even sure how they go about creating $5m, let alone sign anyone to add to what they have. I’m sure Curtis will provide some answers.

I also wanted to spend a bit of time talking about Derick Hall today.

The testing numbers speak to genuine high-upside potential — a 4.20 short shuttle, a 1.55 10-yard split. These are exciting results.

I’ve been trying to think who he reminds me of. Watching him on tape he isn’t your typical lean, long-limbed pass rusher. He’s built like a tank, which makes the testing numbers all the more impressive. As I was watching a couple of Auburn games late on Sunday I thought he reminded me of James Harrison. He’s a better athlete than Harrison but that’s who popped into my head while watching him.

I wanted to see if any similar comparisons had been made prior to the draft and stumbled across this article:

“(Hall) feels like a Steeler as much as anyone in this year’s class… it’s a ferocity and tenacity that serves as the foundation to be a Steelers EDGE rusher. Joey Porter, James Harrison, T.J. Watt. Nasty, junkyard dogs who play that way on the field.”

I can remember when Carroll arrived in Seattle and he made reference to the dominant AFC North teams, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, in the way he wanted to build. They pulled that off, creating the most physical roster in the NFL. They went away from that for too long despite various attempts to recapture it.

Picks like Hall and Witherspoon are a further attempt to re-establish that mentality. Like Harrison, Hall might take a couple of years to really find his feet. However, he appears to have the imposing physicality, the mentality and the commitment to his craft to reach the highest level. Further to that, he is going to be so important in those NFC West games.

I got bored of seeing Fred Warner firing up the Niners ahead of the three wins against the Seahawks last year, yelling at his team mates how much they hate Seattle. San Francisco were better and tougher in 2022. Hall is going to thrive in moments like this. Those big rivalry games. You can see it in clips on YouTube when he’s joshing with Alabama players in pre-draft training. I can almost see it now, him leading the huddle pre-game and rallying the troops before a key contest. Then he’ll be flying around the field like his life depends on the game.

That mentality is back in Seattle. Hall, Witherspoon, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner. Even players like Jerrick Reed and Kenny McIntosh will add to it.

Do not underestimate this turn with the Seahawks. They’re getting back to their roots. As much as Seahawks Twitter complains about it, that also includes running the football like this. That’s harder to do when you have insufficient talent and depth at running back. It’s why the Zach Charbonnet pick was important.

A final note. I am racing through the 2024 quarterback class. If you missed my first article on the position, click here. I’ve now watched half of Quinn Ewers’ games for Texas, added another game of Drake Maye and watched Oregon vs Washington. No time to sleep and all that. I will provide some further thoughts in another article coming up.

If you’ve enjoyed the blog this draft season and want to support the site via Patreon — (click here)

With Jeff Simmons…

The Seahawks didn’t draft a quarterback (again) and I sense it’s a situation of mild discomfort for John Schneider. No more than ‘mild’, I’d stress. Yet I think he’ll be mindful that Geno Smith’s contract is structured to be a ‘prove-it’ year, while Drew Lock only has a one-year deal.

Schneider’s from the Ron Wolf tree and clearly takes a lot of pride in his quarterback decision making. I think it’s one of the reasons why he’s only drafted two since 2010, despite constantly saying he’d like to take one every year. I suspect his record on quarterbacks is something he cares deeply about. It’s perhaps turned him off ‘taking a chance’ on players, to avoid blotting his copybook.

I’m just guessing at that admittedly but the Seahawks have been a bit conservative when it comes to taking shots at QB. Other teams are happy to buy a regular raffle ticket. It’s interesting that Tennessee, Detroit, New Orleans, the LA Rams, Las Vegas, Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia and the LA Chargers all drafted a quarterback this year. Every team has a starter already. A lot of those teams have an ageing incumbent or might look to move on in the next year or two. They’re all taking a look at someone. The Seahawks chose not to.

I don’t think this is anything to do with Smith or Lock. I think it’s more to do with Schneider. They made it clear they’d be willing to draft a QB this year and said as much to their two contracted quarterbacks. I think Schneider wants to love a QB before taking him. I think he wants to truly believe the player can win a job one day. If that player was available last week, I think they’d be a Seahawk today.

With Smith’s contract set to cost at least $31.2m in 2024, a decision will need to be made even if he plays reasonably well. A series of $2m incentives can push him nearer to $40m. For example, if the Seahawks win as many games as last year and Smith’s performance is only average, that will trigger another $2m in 2024 salary. If he throws the same number of touchdowns as last year, he gets another $2m — even if he doubles the number of interceptions he throws.

It means Smith truly has to earn a future in Seattle. Meanwhile, Lock might be riding the bench all year making it impossible to judge his capability to start. Not having a player under contract beyond the end of this season leaves a little bit of concern. It’s OK to hope Geno can make this a moot point but the structure of the contract suggests the Seahawks aren’t entirely sure themselves. They don’t want to end up in a situation like the Colts, going year-to-year at the position. They did that in 2010, 2011 and 2012 until Russell Wilson finally came in and offered long-term stability.

Ideally you also don’t want to be forced into starting a rookie. Which is why adding someone behind Smith and Lock would’ve been attractive.

It means the Seahawks will likely be pouring over the quarterback tape this summer and into the college football season, hunting for a potential long-term solution — even if one ultimately isn’t required.

I’ve seen all the stuff about next years’ quarterback class being better. I’ve studied some of the players already because many were eligible for 2023. I’ve spent part of the last three days running through tape trying to get an early feel for those I haven’t watched, while reviewing those that I have.

Please note, these are very early impressions. I just can’t wait two weeks to start talking about them. These are incomplete assessments though. Last summer I watched every game Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis ever played in college. I’ll do something similar this summer with the 2024 crop.

What I will say is 2024 will be a deeper class. The bulk of the middle class for the 2023 draft returned to school. It impacted the Senior Bowl, as Jim Nagy highlighted in our interview. I spoke to a big league source who grumbled about it, saying it had left the 2023 draft with the top-five then ‘a bunch of sixth and seventh rounders’.

It’ll mean the 2024 group is loaded with familiar names. That doesn’t necessarily mean any of them are legit future NFL starters. Take Bo Nix for example. He crashed and burned at Auburn before fleeing to the friendlier environment in the PAC-12. Then, against the powder-puff defenses on offer, he excelled. He has physical talent and he did well last year. There’s something there. Yet it’s tricky to know how you balance out development, learning, progress and maturity versus situation. If he’s taken as a high pick, will he go back to the Auburn version when life is tougher again?

I haven’t had a chance to properly watch Caleb Williams yet. I have spent some time watching Drake Maye. I’ll come on to him in a moment. The player who intrigues me most going into next season is someone I never expected to be highlighting.

Two years ago, all the ‘way too early mocks’ had Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler as a potential #1 overall pick. I never bought it. I thought his tape was too erratic, he trusted his arm way too much and he needed to calm down and become a proper quarterback, not play like a kid who’d had too much sugar, benefitting from a prolific offensive system to produce stats.

In 2021 it caught up with him. He started the season badly and was benched for Williams (prior to his transfer to USC). It was an incredible fall from grace and a reminder to everyone why the ‘next year is better’ comments are often misplaced.

Rattler transferred to South Carolina for 2022 and received some buzz again a year ago. It was easy to resist. He had to prove the hype was ever worth it. Sadly, when the season began, he failed. He started poorly and it looked like he had no future in college, let alone the NFL.

However, something suddenly changed towards the end of last season. After a humbling defeat at Florida, South Carolina kicked into gear. They destroyed Tennessee 63-38 with Rattler throwing six touchdowns. He was unstoppable. It was like watching Patrick Mahomes — the comparison too many people rushed to when he was at Oklahoma.

Everything clicked. He was playing within the scheme, rather than just trusting his arm. He showed first-class processing skills. He was throwing dimes to all areas of the field. You could see clear evidence of passes delivered on time as the receivers made their break. His anticipation was top level and he started nailing beautiful seam throws.

This carried on the following week at Clemson, where he picked apart their big-name defense for a historic 31-30 win.

He was attacking opponents at every level of the field and they couldn’t stop him. Even when he was pressured, he would scramble to extend plays and keep his eyes downfield, before delivering improvised passes against the odds. When he was given time in the pocket, you saw ideal touch and velocity. He manipulated the pocket well to buy a little extra time on numerous throws, showing ice-veins to stay on course.

Some of the throws were miraculous, some were simply delivered to areas where only the receiver could make the play. I didn’t have to review these games. I was so impressed watching them live, I had to make notes at the time and have been saving them for today. It was a truly eye-catching pair of games, against good opponents, that showed that maybe Rattler was finally ready to deliver on the hype.

I’m glad he returned to school. The Gamecocks had something going at the end of the year and we now get to see if they can build off that. If he can play a full season like he did against Tennessee and Clemson, he could be a high pick.

Has he finally matured and settled down? Does he finally get what it takes to play quarterback properly? The decision to stay in school and continue to work is a positive sign.

The talent is obvious. I never expected to be talking him up, yet here we are. He still has a long, long way to go to be taken seriously as a NFL draft prospect. If he can show the light has switched on, he might be the ideal player to have develop behind Geno Smith — who will be a great mentor — if/when the Seahawks do draft a QB in the future.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Seahawks will have an eye on Washington’s Michael Penix Jr this year. There are issues to be considered. Firstly, the scheme. It shares DNA with Tennessee’s ultra-spread out, half-field read system. I mentioned a few times during the season that Penix Jr, Hendon Hooker and C.J. Stroud all threw an identical interception, trying to look-off the safety then throw to a spot across the middle. On each occasion the defense read the script and had three players covering the spot where the blind throw was made. It speaks to the simplicity of the scheme and how unpredictable some of these QB’s will be when they get into the league and suddenly every window is 10x tighter and every look far more challenging.

However, it’s the arm. That arm. Penix Jr has first-round arm talent. It’s not just throwing from the pocket either. He’s more than capable of throwing off-platform or on the run with velocity and accuracy. The torque he creates through his core to throw on the run is highly impressive.

He doesn’t have the most orthodox release (there are times where he drops his right shoulder and fades as he delivers) but it’s quick enough and despite the spread-nature of the scheme, he’s adept at landing the ball into the right area on a 1v1 deep-shot.

Penix Jr is a very natural passer. I’d say he has ‘easy’ arm strength. He’s a not a one-note passer, though. He knows when to take a little bit off, especially on crossing routes and certain red zone situations. He generally makes life easy for the receiver. He also throws with good base and he’s very good at knowing when the ball needs to get out quickly. His arm strength shows well when he needs to fit the ball into tight windows too.

There are mistakes on tape that he will hope to clean up in 2023. Eight interceptions isn’t back-breaking but in the scheme he plays, he’s more than capable of lowering that number. Hooker had five interceptions combined in his final two years at Tennessee. Stroud had 12 in two years at Ohio State. That’s the kind of thing you expect and in the PAC-12, it’s not too demanding to expect he can throw five or fewer this year.

Athletically he’s good enough — he can scramble to extend plays and he’s enough of a runner to be useful. He has good size. There are tools to work with here.

I also get the sense that Penix Jr would fit the mental makeup of this team. I’m not sure with Rattler but Penix Jr gives off the impression that he’s fun yet dedicated, well liked and a very capable leader.

I’m not suggesting he’s nailed on to be a Seahawk in 12 months but if he’s able to take another step with Washington and maybe even win the PAC-12, he has a good chance to be on their radar. The arm. That arm.

It was interesting that John Schneider name-dropped Quinn Ewers when discussing Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There was no real need to. He was asked about something C.J. Stroud had said about JSN’s route-running. He added that ‘Quinn Ewers would say the same thing’. Ewers was only at Ohio State for a year, never played a game, then transferred to Texas. It’s easy to read too much into that. I couldn’t help but wonder if Ewers is already on Schneider’s mind, looking ahead.

He’s had a mixed start to his college career. In his first year as a starter he only played 10 games due to injury, with a 6-4 record. He had some highlight moments and some negatives. He threw for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions.

I watched the Texas Spring game yesterday to start my evaluation, plus two games from the 2022 season. I was tempted to call him Quinn Ewwww-ers at times. He takes risks he won’t get away with at the next level (is that an inexperience thing?). He trusts his arm too much. He misses open receivers and doesn’t do a good enough job processing through reads and seeing the whole field. There’s evidence on tape of him flat-out missing wide open targets, opting instead for a covered option. He has ugly interceptions on tape and his accuracy can be erratic.

Again, I don’t know how much of this is down to inexperience. He was basically a rookie in 2022 and that could answer away a lot of those concerns. I did think in the Spring Game he looked somewhat similar though and I was hoping to see a few more flashes.

That said, the flashes were there in the proper games I watched. He has good arm strength and has a rare throwing motion and release. He can get the ball out with no wasted motion and deliver, at his best, with velocity and accuracy. As much as there are misses, he’s also shown an ability to execute complex passing concepts. The offensive design is both more challenging under Steve Sarkisian but also more translatable to the NFL.

There are moments of jaw-dropping quality at times where he throws with maximum velocity when he has no opportunity to step into the throw. There was one play where he was under pressure and virtually leaning backwards as if he was just going to fall over, yet flicked his wrist and completed a bullet-pass most college QB’s can’t make when they have ideal base or can step into the throw.

I’m not sure I’ve seen a quicker, whip-like release. There are also some outstanding passes on tape where you can barely believe his ball placement and touch, despite facing pressure. You do see evidence of completions into difficult tight coverage. Ewers has also shown an ability to look off the safety properly in order to create openings.

Overall the potential is there and with his release, arm strength and playing style I can see why Schneider maybe has taken a shine to Ewers.

I also noticed this article, where he was described as ‘the alpha dog’ among a collection of big name college passers:

Ewers was the guy everyone was talking about all weekend including the college quarterbacks. The ball just comes out of his hand differently and no one threw a tighter ball with more velocity then Ewers. ‘He’s got some Pat Mahomes in him the way he throws it,’ Bryce Young said. ‘The kid is legit, he can really spin it,” Miller Moss said. “I can see why he’s the top No. 1 guy, he’s special,’ D.J. Uiagalelei said. The comments just kept coming all weekend long and it wasn’t just how good he threw it that stood out about Ewers but his approach.

We mentioned the environment at the camp is always pretty loose and relaxed and most of the other quarterbacks go through the drills at about 70% intensity. Ewers competed hard in every drill we saw and it was refreshing to see. When you critique his skill set in terms of his arm talent, release, mobility and ability to throw in and out of the pocket from different arm angles, as well as change speeds and throw down the field with touch, it’s no wonder some are calling him the best quarterback prospect to come out of the H.S ranks since Trevor Lawrence four years ago.

Tony Pauline offered this assessment after watching Ewers last season:

“I try to remain conservative in my QB assessments, especially before a player is draft-eligible but Quinn Ewers is one of the most exciting redshirt freshman QB next-level prospects I’ve seen since Peyton Manning was at Tennessee.”

I did not get the same sense watching the two games plus the Spring Game I have watched so far. This is a big year for him. Let’s see if he can take the next step. There’s a lot of pressure on his shoulders, with Arch Manning now at Texas and ready and waiting to be the saviour for the Longhorns. It also means, despite only being a redshirt sophomore in 2023, he’s likely to leave Texas at the end of the season — either for the NFL, or to transfer again.

It was interesting to hear Schneider talk about wanting to get extra 2024 stock when reflecting on Friday’s trade with the Broncos. It gave off a sense of being prepared for a potential need to move up. Or maybe he just thinks it’s a deeper class? We’ve got a long time to wait to find out.

The two quarterbacks that everybody is talking about as a ‘big two’ are Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. My initial assessment of Maye, as with the others, is mixed.

I wasn’t expecting to see the number of misses I saw in the three North Carolina games I watched today. There were throws that were high and wide. He made hard work of some throws on the run. There was evidence of throws dying when he had to get on the move. I think he lacks the same level of core strength as Penix Jr and Ewers. Even when Maye was able to step into throws, at times he would launch erratically off-target.

On top of this, he has a tendency to drift in the pocket. He has mobility but he’s not a difference making athlete as a runner or scrambler. I think the way he throws on the run is a bit of a concern. There were some ugly efforts when on the move. Generally, the word ‘inconsistent’ dominated the tape.

That’s because the positives are also very clear. As with Ewers, there’s evidence of ridiculous, improbable throws on tape. He can be falling away under pressure and still throw with striking accuracy between two defenders with the necessary velocity. His touch in the red zone is a major plus-point. There’s clear evidence of Maye running through three progressions and playing with next-level processing. His ball-placement on mid and long range throws can be stunning at times. When he can throw with base and get the footwork right, his velocity and touch is on point.

This is, again, why I never really like all this ‘next year is better’ stuff. It’s easy to say and it creates the impression the next crop are almost flawless. The reality is, the players I’m talking about here lack the incredible physical traits of the 2023 group but they carry some of the same pro’s and con’s. Nobody processes like Bryce Young and nobody throws with touch downfield like Stroud. Nobody comes close to Anthony Richardson’s athletic upside.

I will watch USC’s Williams soon to get a proper look at him. I’d say 2024 looks deeper but not necessarily better at the top. That remains to be seen. There are players with the potential to drive their stock into the elite range but it’s no given. There are several players with a point to prove and I would resist the temptation to make players like Drake Maye into something they aren’t. Not yet anyway.

There’s promise but that’s it for now. I look forward to watching more games in the coming weeks. That might shift my opinion. Roll on September.

If you’ve enjoyed the blog this draft season and want to support the site via Patreon — (click here)