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Caleb Williams is the real deal
I was looking forward to studying the 2024 quarterbacks. For weeks we’ve been hearing how ‘next year is better’. I wanted to find out if it’s true.
Today I’m going to talk about Caleb Williams, Travis Jordan and Quinn Ewers in some detail, while referencing Michael Penix Jr and Drake Maye (who I covered in part one).
Williams and Maye are being talked about as the class of the draft, far ahead of anyone else (including all of the 2023 quarterbacks).
I’ve watched at least three games of the players above and I’ve watched every snap Ewers has played at Texas.
If I were doing a ranking based on what I’ve seen so far, this would be it:
#1 Caleb Williams (USC)
Big gap
#2 Michael Penix Jr (Washington)
#3 Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
#4 Drake Maye (North Carolina)
If Rattler can produce a full season of what he showed at the end of last season, he could easily reach the status of QB2. The talent is there. It’s a mentality and composure thing with Rattler, I suspect, that has held him back. Has he matured and settled down? If so, he can be a top prospect. I’m really looking forward to watching him this year.
So far I would put Penix Jr at #2 and I think there’s a huge gap between the brilliant Williams and the rest.
I would also say, so far, that Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would be above quarterbacks #2-4 on my list. I would probably also put Anthony Richardson ahead of them based on his obscene upside and I would argue that Penix Jr, Maye and Rattler show some of the same pro’s and con’s that Will Levis flashed. They can do great things but they’re also capable of some real head-scratching moments. The difference is I’d argue Levis’ situation at Kentucky was far less conducive to success than anything faced at Washington or UNC.
It’s important to stress, these are early thoughts I’m sharing at the start of the summer. I will try to watch all of their games before the 2023 season begins. Then there’s a full season to digest and analyse. Things can and will change.
Increasingly though this looks like a deeper class than this year (mainly because so many of the 2023 eligible group returned to school) but the idea it’s far better at the top of round one is a myth, in my opinion.
I was looking forward to studying Caleb Williams because so much has been said about him. I was a bit disappointed with Drake Maye after all the buzz. It’s clear he can do some great things and pull off some great throws — but he also had a lot more misses than I expected.
Williams, I’m pleased to say, lived up to the hype.
Some of the improvisation he pulls off has to be seen to be believed. We’re talking about being chased by multiple defenders in the backfield, virtually blanketed, and pulling off numerous Houdini moves to extend plays. Not only will he escape pressure but against all the laws of physics, he can then — usually off balance and on the run with defenders breathing down his neck — launch the ball on a dime to an outlet 20-30 yards downfield.
To say some of the stuff he does is miraculous barely does it justice.
I have never seen a player be this difficult to bring down when he scrambles. Yet he matches unique elusiveness with a never before seen ability to max out his escapability with throws that just don’t make sense. There are a couple of passes on tape that look like Madden plays, where the computer just lets you throw at full velocity on the run on easy mode. Williams does it in real life.
There are scrambles where you see him step backwards and various defenders will get a hand on him but they can’t bring him down. Whether he’ll be able to do this at the same level in the NFL remains to be seen. It’s pretty f-ing exciting to watch in college, though.
Technically he throws with brilliant base and his footwork is good. His accuracy is very impressive and he makes difficult throws into tight windows look easy. He has a knack for putting it where only the receiver can make the play. His pocket manipulation when he isn’t scrambling is top notch. I love the way he squares his shoulders to every read. It also helps show off that he’s actually making progressions because his body movements are clear.
He’s not just a scrambler he’s also a very strong runner and can make people miss in the open-field. He can do the conventional stuff, throwing with timing and anticipation. When the ball needs to get out he can get it out quickly.
Caleb Williams is the ultimate playmaker and he has the potential to be incredible. His biggest test this year will be the pressure of expectation. He will be seen as the 2024 #1 pick from today until he proves otherwise. How does he handle the attention? Can he lead USC to glory to just tie everything together?
Nobody I’ve watched so far comes remotely close to Williams’ level. I have Penix Jr as QB2 at the minute because he has special arm talent. He can do things that the others can’t and challenge opponents in a way NFL teams are going to love. I know he plays in ‘the offense‘ (this is my new way of describing the UW, Tennessee, Ohio State etc style systems, please always read it in the same voice ‘the Critical Drinker’ uses for ‘the message‘) but you see clear evidence on tape of world class throws downfield, challenging any 1v1 coverage on the outside with a combination of placement and perfect velocity. Penix Jr can also vary his throwing speeds and deliver with touch when necessary. This particularly shows up well in the red zone.
He has a tendency to fall away as he delivers the pass and it’s a quirky release but the end result is consistently good. Unlike Hendon Hooker a year ago, he isn’t constantly throwing to wide-open receivers. Anyone looking to utilise vertical passing concepts and lead an explosive offense will be massively intrigued by Penix Jr’s ability on deep throws. He is such a big-play threat — and yet he does a good enough job managing things on a short and intermediate level that he isn’t a one-trick pony.
I legitimately think the Seahawks will be intrigued by him. He seems to have the personality that would fit the locker room. He has the arm. He’s certainly mobile enough to extend plays and throw on the run. There are moments where he misreads things or throws into dangerous areas. As I said in part one, eight interceptions in this offense in the PAC-12 is too many. Hooker had five in two years in the SEC. I think five maximum should be the target in 2023. If he can do that, then he has a perfectly legitimate chance to be the second quarterback on many boards.
This isn’t to hammer Drake Maye or write him off. There are some beautiful throws on tape, some magical moments. There are just way too many ‘WTF’ misses. He also isn’t playing in a difficult conference with loaded defensive play. I’d like to see a more rounded consistency and just getting the basics right — making the easy throws, making the right reads — to get to the point where all this ‘top-three lock’ talk is justified.
Florida State’s Travis Jordan was an interesting watch. Firstly, he’s a terrific athlete. He’s able to create big moments when he runs. He had an amazing scramble against Florida that was Caleb Williams-esque. He’s a playmaker when he escapes the pocket and his running ability will be seen as a big positive.
As a passer, his accuracy is hit and miss. He throws with a good base and his arm strength is good. I would suggest he needs his technique to be right to make accurate and explosive throws. He’s not one of these freaky physical monsters who can generate amazing torque and downfield bombs with non-ideal mechanics. He can’t wing it, basically, like the Williams’ can. That’s not a big flaw though.
There are too many turnover worthy plays at the moment. I watched the Florida, Clemson and Georgia Tech games and there were a lot of balls thrown into blanket coverage that could’ve gone either way. I wrote in my notes ‘there isn’t a tight window he doesn’t like’. I think he forces things a bit too much and has risky throws, often in the dangerous short and intermediate level where big returns are possible.
On the plus side, I like the look of his post and seam throws. He also throws well to the sideline on the mid-range and when the scheme is ticking, he executes with good timing. When he also has a clean pocket he can diagnose properly and make big chunk plays. A wheel route against Georgia Tech stuck in the memory simply because it’s the type of defensive breakdown Drake Maye tends to miss, getting caught up on a primary target. Jordan spotted the opportunity and delivered.
There are too many tipped passes. I haven’t worked out why but there a lot of tipped balls that again contribute to what felt like a high number of turnover worthy plays.
I do wonder about his ceiling and ability to maybe put his team on his back. Against Clemson they got behind early and then every series felt like a collection of dump-offs and short range plodding throws that didn’t go anywhere. When they needed some sizzle to get things going, it took until garbage time to make it happen. I need to watch some other tougher games to properly get a read here.
I didn’t like the way he throws a fade. On back-to-back plays against Clemson, for example, he threw the first fade short and the second one too high.
One moment that really did stand out was a fumble by the running back on the five-yard line, scooped up by a linebacker with a run for a touchdown in front of him. Jordan raced back and was the player to make the TD-saving tackle at his own 25-yard-line. Little things like that you just need to see.
I’m intrigued by him, absolutely. He has the skills necessary to be on the 2023 radar. It’d be good to see him drive FSU back to being a big threat in college football this year and be the team to beat in the ACC.
I’ll finish with Quinn Ewers, having now watched all of his 2022 games and the 2023 Texas Spring Game. He is without a doubt one of the biggest teases I’ve ever seen. There’s a lot to like about his brilliant whip-like release and arm strength. You see technical throws where he reads the defense and delivers perfectly like a top-level pro-quarterback. He makes throws with no balance or base and just delivers with core strength and it’s incredibly impressive. When he’s ‘on it’ he looks naturally gifted.
But my word, the Quinn Ewwwwww-ers nickname is justified. I don’t think I’ve seen so many misses before. People complained about Anthony Richardson’s accuracy and I’ve got no idea what they’d say about Ewers in 2022. There are so many overthrows it’s ridiculous. Even the little screens and dump-offs are wide of the mark sometimes. There are far too many turnover worthy plays. He overshoots wide open receivers on easy throws, sometimes for would-be touchdowns.
The offense he led just ground to a halt in the second half of big games (Oklahoma State, Kansas State) after good starts. It took him a whole quarter to complete a pass against TCU (if you don’t include the interception he threw into double coverage). He was shut-out against TCU in the first half and only scored a field goal in the second. The number of overthrown passes against TCU had me shouting at the computer screen.
His timing can be late and off. I mentioned the wheel-route by Travis Jordan a moment ago. Ewers had Bijan Robinson wide open on a similar play with the defender on the floor having fallen over. Ewers didn’t even look at him and checked down instead.
You can’t talk about Ewers as a first round prospect based on his tape last year. He’s young, I get it. He deserves time to settle in and develop. By all accounts he is a committed and determined person and will work to improve. He also has the physical tools and natural technique to be very good if he puts it together. I saw some of the same issues though in the Spring Game and I wonder if a problem is brewing for him. He looks like someone who’s going to need at least three years at this to work things out. Yet after this season, what happens? Texas can’t afford to have Arch Manning sitting for multiple years. Does Ewers transfer again?
There’s a lot of pressure on him to succeed and keep his job, plus develop, plus deliver on his potential enough to be ready for the NFL. I fear for him. There’s something there but at the moment, he looks like someone who’s right at the beginning of a long process.
My next group to study will include Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward. I’ve already got all of the information I need on Tyler Van Dyke (I really wish he’d transfer away from Mario Cristobal).
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