Caleb Williams is the real deal
I was looking forward to studying the 2024 quarterbacks. For weeks we’ve been hearing how ‘next year is better’. I wanted to find out if it’s true.
Today I’m going to talk about Caleb Williams, Travis Jordan and Quinn Ewers in some detail, while referencing Michael Penix Jr and Drake Maye (who I covered in part one).
Williams and Maye are being talked about as the class of the draft, far ahead of anyone else (including all of the 2023 quarterbacks).
I’ve watched at least three games of the players above and I’ve watched every snap Ewers has played at Texas.
If I were doing a ranking based on what I’ve seen so far, this would be it:
#1 Caleb Williams (USC)
Big gap
#2 Michael Penix Jr (Washington)
#3 Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
#4 Drake Maye (North Carolina)
If Rattler can produce a full season of what he showed at the end of last season, he could easily reach the status of QB2. The talent is there. It’s a mentality and composure thing with Rattler, I suspect, that has held him back. Has he matured and settled down? If so, he can be a top prospect. I’m really looking forward to watching him this year.
So far I would put Penix Jr at #2 and I think there’s a huge gap between the brilliant Williams and the rest.
I would also say, so far, that Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would be above quarterbacks #2-4 on my list. I would probably also put Anthony Richardson ahead of them based on his obscene upside and I would argue that Penix Jr, Maye and Rattler show some of the same pro’s and con’s that Will Levis flashed. They can do great things but they’re also capable of some real head-scratching moments. The difference is I’d argue Levis’ situation at Kentucky was far less conducive to success than anything faced at Washington or UNC.
It’s important to stress, these are early thoughts I’m sharing at the start of the summer. I will try to watch all of their games before the 2023 season begins. Then there’s a full season to digest and analyse. Things can and will change.
Increasingly though this looks like a deeper class than this year (mainly because so many of the 2023 eligible group returned to school) but the idea it’s far better at the top of round one is a myth, in my opinion.
I was looking forward to studying Caleb Williams because so much has been said about him. I was a bit disappointed with Drake Maye after all the buzz. It’s clear he can do some great things and pull off some great throws — but he also had a lot more misses than I expected.
Williams, I’m pleased to say, lived up to the hype.
Some of the improvisation he pulls off has to be seen to be believed. We’re talking about being chased by multiple defenders in the backfield, virtually blanketed, and pulling off numerous Houdini moves to extend plays. Not only will he escape pressure but against all the laws of physics, he can then — usually off balance and on the run with defenders breathing down his neck — launch the ball on a dime to an outlet 20-30 yards downfield.
To say some of the stuff he does is miraculous barely does it justice.
I have never seen a player be this difficult to bring down when he scrambles. Yet he matches unique elusiveness with a never before seen ability to max out his escapability with throws that just don’t make sense. There are a couple of passes on tape that look like Madden plays, where the computer just lets you throw at full velocity on the run on easy mode. Williams does it in real life.
There are scrambles where you see him step backwards and various defenders will get a hand on him but they can’t bring him down. Whether he’ll be able to do this at the same level in the NFL remains to be seen. It’s pretty f-ing exciting to watch in college, though.
Technically he throws with brilliant base and his footwork is good. His accuracy is very impressive and he makes difficult throws into tight windows look easy. He has a knack for putting it where only the receiver can make the play. His pocket manipulation when he isn’t scrambling is top notch. I love the way he squares his shoulders to every read. It also helps show off that he’s actually making progressions because his body movements are clear.
He’s not just a scrambler he’s also a very strong runner and can make people miss in the open-field. He can do the conventional stuff, throwing with timing and anticipation. When the ball needs to get out he can get it out quickly.
Caleb Williams is the ultimate playmaker and he has the potential to be incredible. His biggest test this year will be the pressure of expectation. He will be seen as the 2024 #1 pick from today until he proves otherwise. How does he handle the attention? Can he lead USC to glory to just tie everything together?
Nobody I’ve watched so far comes remotely close to Williams’ level. I have Penix Jr as QB2 at the minute because he has special arm talent. He can do things that the others can’t and challenge opponents in a way NFL teams are going to love. I know he plays in ‘the offense‘ (this is my new way of describing the UW, Tennessee, Ohio State etc style systems, please always read it in the same voice ‘the Critical Drinker’ uses for ‘the message‘) but you see clear evidence on tape of world class throws downfield, challenging any 1v1 coverage on the outside with a combination of placement and perfect velocity. Penix Jr can also vary his throwing speeds and deliver with touch when necessary. This particularly shows up well in the red zone.
He has a tendency to fall away as he delivers the pass and it’s a quirky release but the end result is consistently good. Unlike Hendon Hooker a year ago, he isn’t constantly throwing to wide-open receivers. Anyone looking to utilise vertical passing concepts and lead an explosive offense will be massively intrigued by Penix Jr’s ability on deep throws. He is such a big-play threat — and yet he does a good enough job managing things on a short and intermediate level that he isn’t a one-trick pony.
I legitimately think the Seahawks will be intrigued by him. He seems to have the personality that would fit the locker room. He has the arm. He’s certainly mobile enough to extend plays and throw on the run. There are moments where he misreads things or throws into dangerous areas. As I said in part one, eight interceptions in this offense in the PAC-12 is too many. Hooker had five in two years in the SEC. I think five maximum should be the target in 2023. If he can do that, then he has a perfectly legitimate chance to be the second quarterback on many boards.
This isn’t to hammer Drake Maye or write him off. There are some beautiful throws on tape, some magical moments. There are just way too many ‘WTF’ misses. He also isn’t playing in a difficult conference with loaded defensive play. I’d like to see a more rounded consistency and just getting the basics right — making the easy throws, making the right reads — to get to the point where all this ‘top-three lock’ talk is justified.
Florida State’s Travis Jordan was an interesting watch. Firstly, he’s a terrific athlete. He’s able to create big moments when he runs. He had an amazing scramble against Florida that was Caleb Williams-esque. He’s a playmaker when he escapes the pocket and his running ability will be seen as a big positive.
As a passer, his accuracy is hit and miss. He throws with a good base and his arm strength is good. I would suggest he needs his technique to be right to make accurate and explosive throws. He’s not one of these freaky physical monsters who can generate amazing torque and downfield bombs with non-ideal mechanics. He can’t wing it, basically, like the Williams’ can. That’s not a big flaw though.
There are too many turnover worthy plays at the moment. I watched the Florida, Clemson and Georgia Tech games and there were a lot of balls thrown into blanket coverage that could’ve gone either way. I wrote in my notes ‘there isn’t a tight window he doesn’t like’. I think he forces things a bit too much and has risky throws, often in the dangerous short and intermediate level where big returns are possible.
On the plus side, I like the look of his post and seam throws. He also throws well to the sideline on the mid-range and when the scheme is ticking, he executes with good timing. When he also has a clean pocket he can diagnose properly and make big chunk plays. A wheel route against Georgia Tech stuck in the memory simply because it’s the type of defensive breakdown Drake Maye tends to miss, getting caught up on a primary target. Jordan spotted the opportunity and delivered.
There are too many tipped passes. I haven’t worked out why but there a lot of tipped balls that again contribute to what felt like a high number of turnover worthy plays.
I do wonder about his ceiling and ability to maybe put his team on his back. Against Clemson they got behind early and then every series felt like a collection of dump-offs and short range plodding throws that didn’t go anywhere. When they needed some sizzle to get things going, it took until garbage time to make it happen. I need to watch some other tougher games to properly get a read here.
I didn’t like the way he throws a fade. On back-to-back plays against Clemson, for example, he threw the first fade short and the second one too high.
One moment that really did stand out was a fumble by the running back on the five-yard line, scooped up by a linebacker with a run for a touchdown in front of him. Jordan raced back and was the player to make the TD-saving tackle at his own 25-yard-line. Little things like that you just need to see.
I’m intrigued by him, absolutely. He has the skills necessary to be on the 2023 radar. It’d be good to see him drive FSU back to being a big threat in college football this year and be the team to beat in the ACC.
I’ll finish with Quinn Ewers, having now watched all of his 2022 games and the 2023 Texas Spring Game. He is without a doubt one of the biggest teases I’ve ever seen. There’s a lot to like about his brilliant whip-like release and arm strength. You see technical throws where he reads the defense and delivers perfectly like a top-level pro-quarterback. He makes throws with no balance or base and just delivers with core strength and it’s incredibly impressive. When he’s ‘on it’ he looks naturally gifted.
But my word, the Quinn Ewwwwww-ers nickname is justified. I don’t think I’ve seen so many misses before. People complained about Anthony Richardson’s accuracy and I’ve got no idea what they’d say about Ewers in 2022. There are so many overthrows it’s ridiculous. Even the little screens and dump-offs are wide of the mark sometimes. There are far too many turnover worthy plays. He overshoots wide open receivers on easy throws, sometimes for would-be touchdowns.
The offense he led just ground to a halt in the second half of big games (Oklahoma State, Kansas State) after good starts. It took him a whole quarter to complete a pass against TCU (if you don’t include the interception he threw into double coverage). He was shut-out against TCU in the first half and only scored a field goal in the second. The number of overthrown passes against TCU had me shouting at the computer screen.
His timing can be late and off. I mentioned the wheel-route by Travis Jordan a moment ago. Ewers had Bijan Robinson wide open on a similar play with the defender on the floor having fallen over. Ewers didn’t even look at him and checked down instead.
You can’t talk about Ewers as a first round prospect based on his tape last year. He’s young, I get it. He deserves time to settle in and develop. By all accounts he is a committed and determined person and will work to improve. He also has the physical tools and natural technique to be very good if he puts it together. I saw some of the same issues though in the Spring Game and I wonder if a problem is brewing for him. He looks like someone who’s going to need at least three years at this to work things out. Yet after this season, what happens? Texas can’t afford to have Arch Manning sitting for multiple years. Does Ewers transfer again?
There’s a lot of pressure on him to succeed and keep his job, plus develop, plus deliver on his potential enough to be ready for the NFL. I fear for him. There’s something there but at the moment, he looks like someone who’s right at the beginning of a long process.
My next group to study will include Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward. I’ve already got all of the information I need on Tyler Van Dyke (I really wish he’d transfer away from Mario Cristobal).
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Great write up. Out of the guys you’ve watched who most fits the perfect qb that Carroll described last season(most like Carson Palmer)?
Also where do you get full game tape if you don’t mind me asking? I’d be interested in watching some of these guys and not rely on just highlights
It’s a mix of YouTube and the games I have saved on my system at home
I think there are a few QB’s who could work for Seattle
QB Tape is a Channel on YouTube I use. It doesn’t have every game, but is a good resource in general
Thanks for that, is there anywhere else to find game tape for non qb prospects?
Someone (McShay?) had JJ McCarthy from Michigan in the first round of their “way too early” mock, which wasn’t really a guy I’d seen discussed anywhere else. Rob, do you have a take on him and if he could plausibly rise into a similar tier to your 2/3/4 guys?
He’s about 194lbs last time I checked
Will watch him but not sure why he’s getting R1 buzz based on what I saw last year
Thanks Rob, great stuff!
How does Caleb compare to Trevor Lawrence when he was coming out of Clemson? I mean particularly in terms of NFL readiness and potential. How about Andrew Luck?
I ask cuz they’re the 2 most recent ‘can’t miss’, no. 1 overall QBs.
Williams has more wow factor
Lawrence more rounded and complete
Rob Staton = The best football analysis on the internet.
the Critical Drinker = The best movie analysis on the internet.
Two absolute legends.
Thank you 🥃
HAHA I read “the offense” in the critical drinker’s voice when he says “the message”
I agree on Ben’s assessment of both!
Thanks for the early scouting report, Rob. I was pleased to see you have Penix Jr. as the current #2, which is where I have him as well. I wonder if he’s underrated a bit because of the left-handed aspect? If you have two solid tackles, which we do, it shouldn’t make a difference, but maybe that puts some teams off him a bit?
It will be very interesting to see how this next QB class shakes out. If things stick to current trajectory, Williams will like go #1 overall. But there will be a much larger group of quality QB prospects below him than we had this year. This could bode well for a Seahawks team back to picking in the teens or twenties, particularly now that at least 3-4 other teams landed thier QBOTF this year and won’t be in the first round hunt.
If there are 10-15 of Rob’s “legitimate 1st rounders” next year, in addition to his quarterbacks, coupled with the mid-tier QBs that were missing this year, I think that the Seahawks getting their QBOTF is much more likely.
Many teams would probably focus on aiming for greater needs because there would be many more 2nd to mid round options for quarterbacks.
If there are more legitimate first rounders, teams would probably be less likely to demand a high bounty as compared to a draft that the talent drops off after 5 picks. If a team thinks that they can get the same level of talent 10 picks lower, a Patrick Mahomes trade is more likely (Swapping pick 10 for 27, a 3rd rounder, and a 1st the following year.),
When a team feels that they can get the same degree of talent at 20 as at 10, then the Iron Price may be closer to nickel or copper.
Hopefully a plethora of possibly great to really good prospects will help the Hawks land the QB that PCJS want.
Go Hawks.
To me this sounds alot like we can potentially see a QB with potential even in the later picks, or even day 2. Give me a balling linebacker with the first pick and a trade up for a qb after.
Can we not be putting ideas out there to wait on a QB… to take a linebacker first instead
Too soon
Sure because all day two quarterbacks become superstars.
We have selected a LB with the first pick. Didn’t work out to the best it could have. I don’t think it’s a position worth investing much into. Give me a pair of decent 3rd-4th rounders and I’m content to have the resources spent on guys who make plays.
The draft ends and we still get content 4 out of 5 days. We are truly spoiled.
Thank you, Rob!
Based on your scouting report Rob I am guessing either Kyler Murray’s days are numbered in Arizona or they are going to get one hell of a haul for that 1st pick next year.
Yep
And they’re not trading it to us.
I’d guess the former. It’s a brutal contract to eat and not too friendly for the team acquiring him either though.
I have a feeling the tides are turning on QB contracts a bit. I heard Lombardi or someone talking about Lamar’s deal and he compared it to Kyler, Russ, Daniel Jones, Stafford and some others – in order to ‘prove’ that it was a good deal for all involved.
I look at that list and don’t think I’d want a single one of them at their price tag. $50M for Russ or Kyler? No friggin thanks. Same with Lamar. He’s ‘only’ 31, but isn’t a guy who’s going to make the transition to pocket passer well, and he’s been hurt the last couple of years.
Looking at last years top paid QB’s, a staggering 9 out of the top 12 teams didn’t even make the playoffs. Of the 3 who made it in, Dak was lost in the divisional, Lamar sat out injured and they were one and done. Mahomes won the SB.
The other 9 who lead their teams to the couch for the playoffs were: Tannehill, Cousins, Goff, Rogers, Wentz, Carr, Darnold, Ryan & Russ.
Oh, and Aaron Rogers will be due $107 MILLION in his age 41 season… SMH
Very interesting Brodie. And I hope the tide is turning on QB salaries.
Seattle went out and got the offensive weapons I pounded the table for. So Geno has a make or break season in front of him and in some regard so does Lock. There is no reason both shouldn’t be successful with the weapons provided. If the offense takes another step forward it will make for some interesting draft decisions next year.
Great write up, confirms what my impression was of Maye, disappointing to hear about Ewers, but also feels right that 2024 isn’t going to have a bunch of wartless QBs in a conga line heading to the pros.
Very much looking forward to the verdict on Jayden Daniels, my impression was that he would have been a late 1, early 2 pick this year.
Thanks Rob, it will be interesting to follow these QBs throughout the fall. I mean that Seattle has to draft a QB next year, right? This Seahawks regime has shown little interest in spending draft picks on the QB position with only 2 QBs selected in the past 14 years. It sure seems that they have backed themselves into a corner next year to attempt for a cheap QBOTF. Either that or hope that Geno can last for several more years. I fear that Lock is not the future unless you want to see someone challenge Winston throwing 30 Interceptions in one season.
Geno himself might threaten the 30-pick mark this year if his turnover luck reverts to the norm—yet, oddly, I’m quite bullish that he will settle in and find himself a bit. Comfort, rhythm, chemistry, vibe, etc. should all be improved, and the offensive roster is definitely improved (on paper, anyway).
…And for this reason, I don’t think it’s absurd to expect that Drew Lock could also be in the process of reforming his game. Mark Schlereth said that the Denver Broncos “didn’t have time” for Lock, whereas the Seahawks seem more willing to commit to Lock’s development. I don’t think his contract is indicative of a lack of desire to keep him in the program so much as it is indicative of a lack of a market for his services. His greatest value is in Seattle, and he might have to do for awhile (gulp).
100% with you malanch. Seattle provided Geno and Drew a lot of weapons. What if the offense ticks up another level? If offense does have a great year what do you do with Geno? Are they liking what they have in Lock behind the scenes? How does the locker room feel about Lock?
Going to be a fun year to watch develop.
Then they would have signed Lock to a longer contract. He’s still 26 and has done nothing for his career. Not polished, turnover prone, and has never been able to beat anyone for playing time. He was a trade throw in. That is why he has the contract that he has. They needed a backup, that’s all.
No more getting smart or getting cute with things like this. They need to fix the problem and get a QBOTF in. No more retreads. That’s why it’s the weakest long term spot on the offense. His greatest value is that he fills a roster spot, that’s it. No time to see if a career 26 year old backup and maybe eventually be average.
“Then they would have signed Lock to a longer contract.”
Absolutely not. The backup quarterback market has not dictated any such need, and probably won’t next year either. One-year deals are perfect for keeping such a player around exactly long enough to make a confident determination as to his ability or inability to take on the starting role. According with this determination, if any other team should step in next year to outbid Seattle for Lock’s services, Schneider could just up his offer or let him walk.
I’ll just say that Geno was a sub-60% completion guy with more INTs than TDs before 2022.
And Lock really pushed him for the starting job.
And Lock has not had any coaching consistency in his career, or time to really develop. Until now.
Not saying Lock is the Answer but I think he is worth the backup spot and I don’t see the offense falling off a cliff should something happen to Geno this year.
Agreed Cha, and neither one of Lock/Smith had such a stable situation with loads of talent around them before.
Pete and John decided they deserve a chance and they didn’t draft a QB. If they fall flat on their face so be it, Seattle will move on. But they have been put in a position to succeed and we shouldn’t be surprised if one runs with it.
Personally I think we would be closer to getting Caleb Williams than the playoffs with Lock. Makes me think of putting duct tape on the wing of an airplane.
What’s Van Dyke’s predicted range? Would be nice to get a QB rd 1 and Van Dyke late if possible, he’s in the Carson Palmer mold
Impossible to predict range on him at the moment
1. I’m hoping Js loves Tyler Van Dyke.
2. I’m hoping Super Mario is super boring offense keeps his stats really love this season so he flies under the radar and is listed on most draft boards as a second rounder
3. I hope JS gets a steal with TVD as a first round pick in the twenties
4. I hope 31 GMs can’t figure out the Cristobal factor, but JS can.
5. I hope having the same college coach will give TVD the skill set of Justin Herbert.
6. I’ve seen all that needs to be seen on TVD; no more information needed.
We are always going to be out of the tier one group, hell even picking at 5 we were out, unless JS is willing to do a major trade up. And I mean major, now that we’ll be picking so low.
The dilemma of wanting to see a top QB light it up this year, only for them to be way out of range, vs wanting to see just enough to where they are in range, but then with the added worry of them not living up to their potential. Ugh.
This is the reason I’m kinda hoping TVD stays in my Miami… maybe he slides to tradeable place like Herbert
His numbers last year were so bad that if he doesn’t dramatically improve we wouldn’t need to trade up to get him even if we win the SB
Herbert was the 6th pick in the draft. Van Dyke wouldn’t come within shouting distance of that range.
Unless he balls out and becomes a Heisman finalist, he will be available on late day 2, probably day 3.
Hey Rob , so far where does Williams rank as a prospect in compared to all the QBs you have scouted.
If Geno plays like he did end of last year we can be a 3 r 4 win team and could be in the running for Williams
Probably need to wait until the end of the 2023 season to make any big declarations on Williams
Rob,
I would say the Tennessee, UW, and Ohio state offenses are very different. I agree with you on Tennessee and Ohio state being very unlike a pro offense (for different reasons each of them), but Washington isn’t as bad as you think. They are based on McVay/Shanahan staples of mesh and flood. I think Penix wouldn’t have as hard of a time adjusting as you think. The biggest issue will be moving away from the check with me stuff, but schematically there won’t be much learning for Penix to do.
It’s all reads from the sideline, half field, ultra spread, mass production
It is scary to think that Arizona could get both pick 1 and 2 in 2024 draft and get Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.
It’s scary for Williams and Harrison Jr.
Haa!
…Yeah, hmmm: Caleb Williams AND Call of Duty—that’d make for some intriguing salary cap contortioneering, to be sure. Two premier 2024 draft picks, multiple franchise quarterbacks, the ever-daunting Red Sea, the LJ Collier Revenge Tour—Hawk fans, behold the wrath!
I don’t think Houston will be that bad
I can’t imagine being scared of the Cardinals as long as Bidwill is at the helm.
Rob, one thing about QBs that I think also plays a part in NFL readiness is the experience and quality of calling out coverages and adjusting line blocking schemes at the line of scrimmage. Penix is really good at this, after the number of games he’s played I would expect it. How hard is it for you to get a feel for these skills the way you scout the players?
Well, you seem to have concluded “Penix is really good at this” to a satisfying degree of confidence, so it’s probably about that hard.
Most players get their information from the sideline
YES!! on the Critical Drinker reference, Rob! Hell yes. Yeah, I much prefer quarterbacks being quarterbacks over OCs being quarterbacks. Thankfully, the NFL has been less accommodating of The OFFense than Hollywood has been of The MESSage—and may they e’er remain thus!
GET SOME DAMN SLEEP rOB !!!
Dude- unrelenting commitment to the craft. Respect.
Intrigue is probably the best way to describe the QB class. So much room to improve this season. Watching 2022 is good setup, but leaves me mostly wanting. This class has potential to be incredible or middling still. It’s fun to dream of Williams in a Hawks jersey, but more likely to find a development guy with traits in R2/R3 with o/u at 8.5. There seem to be a few of those this year as it stands combined with an overall solid talent class to push QBs down the board.
TVD all day long for me.
He might be on the bench all day playing for Cristobal
Penix would be a great QB for this team, but he will probably go on day 3. He has had four season ending injuries, which includes 2 ACL tears and multiple shoulder injuries. Wouldn’t surprise me if he got medically red flagged in Indy. Kind of a shame too.
He won’t be a day three pick and there’s no point speculating on career defining injuries
If Jordan Travis can clean up some of his footwork, I would not mind him as a possible QB of the future. Penix would be a local favorite.
I wonder though about Caleb Williams and that Riley offense, and sustained success in the pros. There’s no doubt that Riley can get his QB’s drafted 1st overall, but I wonder why most of his QB’s flame out after a season or two? Goes all the way back to Sam Bradford, even considering his injuries, he was…okay. Baker Mayfield has been…okay. Kyler Murray? Good…but not really what you want to put your hat on as “The Guy”, and some fans want to move off him on as soon as possible.
Not really what you want at #1 overall.
Well watching Williams, he is the opposite of a system QB
Some of the stuff he does is miraculous
He isn’t just a Riley guy
Didn’t both Baker and Murray seem the same way coming out tho? Both seemed to be able to create and win with their escapability and create magic. May be just coincidental tho, and not necessarily Riley. What do you think about Williams personality, too?
Hey man, please stop asking too many questions about Williams.
I can’t handle falling in love with yet another prospect we’ll never be able to draft 😆
I am personally put off by his personality. For some reason it gives me Adams and Mayfield vibes and with the “FUCK “ painted on his nails, just weird. I’m all for being a competitor tho, so maybe that’s all that he is. Liked him dig through pain. But again, just get a weird vibe and wonder how his personality would vibe in a locker room as a Rookie QB. We will see how or if that changes this year.
Murray was a fantastic talent and not a system QB in the slightest. His issues in the NFL are nothing to do with talent or his college offense.
I never rated Mayfield highly. Simply a bad pick.
I was looking more at the personalities and what the players do. Baker and Murray have issues that are between the ears, but could really play and that was emphasized and displayed in Riley’s system. Could the personalities that were developed with Riley allow them to really showcase their talents and excel in college, but also be developed personality traits that lead to their struggles and falls?
Are you suggesting Riley can’t coach guys to be professional? I think that’s a bit of a stretch
Most QBs fail, even highly drafted ones. As far as I know there is no program that consistently turns out quality QBs.
I’d actually argue Rileys offense had translated quite well to the NFL. Both Mayfield and Murray, for all their faults, were considered good players their rookie years. Hurts has done well too. Cedee Lamb was productive in his first season as a wr, and Mark Andrews has been a stud since day 1. My only point is that Rileys concepts seem to translate fairly well, based only on the number of players from his system that had instant success.
Rob, you mentioned Michael Pratt of Tulane before.
Is he a viable NFL option or just a good college quarterback?
I need to study him properly
Not as much Tulane tape available as the others
Thanks, great stuff as always btw
I’m ruined. When I read, ‘”the offense”‘, I read it in the Drinker’s voice, and thought to “Tatiana”. Then I read your note, and was like, “Sweet”.
Thanks for everything, Rob. As I’ve said before, I don’t always agree with your conclusions, but I love your analysis, and how it makes me think. Your work is appreciated more than you know.
Anyway, that’s all I’ve got. Go away now.
Go Hawks.
Not sure if this has been brought up already, but I was watching Penix Jr highlights and was trying to figure out if a wacky release like his could be translatable to the NFL. Thinking about it some more, his release kind of reminds me of Justin Herbert’s , where it kind of seems like they just throw their whole body into the throw but it ends up where it needs to be. I definetely haven’t looked at much tape of either but just a possible similarity I saw.
Derick Hall draft party, reaction. 🤩
Road to the Pros: Derick Hall – Episode 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc59KCvLcZ0
Thanks Rob – another great look at possible quarterbacks. The Hawks have only drafted 2 qb’s in the last 12 years: RW in the 3rd and McGough in the 7th. I seriously doubt the Hawks will break their obvious draft trends in the first or second round in 2024. They appear to be 100% committed to Geno and Lock. But it is fun to dream about Caleb being a Hawk!
Smith’s contract has a deliberate and obvious out after this year and Lock’s on a one-year deal
So I don’t get that sense at all
At this point I’m figuring that Geno Smith will be the quarterback for 2 more years and possibly a 3 – assuming he performs well. While his contract has an out – it also has extensions. So whatever the Seahawks may have thought going into the draft – the plans are changing now.
Nothing has changed
The out in his contract is clear and obvious
He has to earn the chance to stick around
Simple as that
But at some point John has to actually draft a QB.
You mean draft trends like not selecting a CB in the first round?
They are now BPA, through and through. If Penix or any other QB is on their board near the range they are picking, why in the world would they not pick that QB? They hinted that AR would have been their choice at #5, if the Colts hadn’t nabbed him.
We can put to bed any previous trends they might have had. That was the old, broken way of doing things. They’ve evolved.
If the Seahawks decided Williams is the guy, what would they actually have to give up in order to get the #1 overall pick? Would it be worth the price, especially if Arizona has it? They’d surely either not trade with us or ask for an exorbitant haul compared to a non-division rival.
I don’t think it is likely we will be able to trade up from 32 to. 1.
So basically, Williams is a unicorn that will never get, Penix is the only other player worth taking and will have to overpay most likely to trade up and get him. This is why they should’ve taken Levis at number 20.
It’s May
Chill and let the CFB season play out
Yes! It’s way early.
Based on a glance at the UDFA WR’s they are bringing in. It looks like Dee Eskridge and Cade Johnson are in a real battle to make the 2023 roster.
Eskridge will be a post 6/1 cut, most likely. They need every single penny to pay who they already drafted, or signed. Cutting him will give them $1.2 million in cap space. The $800,000 in dead cap can then be split over 2023 and 2024.
As for any other receiver carried over from 2022, they’ll be fighting for practice squad duty. They’ve been completely uninspiring and not worthy of much investment.
They are not cutting Eskridge for cap reasons. They are not that hard up.
Maybe there is some trade value. 2024 4th round draft choice?
Would be lucky to get a 7th at this stage
Nice to see that you don’t just spout inane nonsense on twitter.
Seriously though. Such small-mindedness is entirely antithetical to this entire process. Go back a year ago and look just how different people were talking about prospects. There’s an entire college football season to take place.
But yeah no. You got it all pegged, just as always, Mr hot take.
I’ve seen some speculation that DTR might have been a target in R5 before Cleveland took him. Anybody think there’s a chance of picking him up if he doesn’t make the Browns roster?
For people trying to speculate what trading up for Caleb Williams would cost…
Assuming the team is not AZ, or QB needy themselves…
The floor would be DK Metcalf, Seattle’s 2024 (1&2), 2025 (1), 2026 (2) – and probably richer than that if you believe the Seahawks will be better than pick 9.
Hi Rob!
Any opinions about KJ Jefferson from Arkansas and DJ from Clemson?
Clemson QB transferred to Oregon State. He isn’t a NFL prospect.
Jefferson overrated by the media. Don’t see a NFL starter
Thanks Rob!
Schedule release coming next week.
Looking at the opponents, they have away games @ both Detroit and Dallas this year.
Thanksgiving Seahawks game chances aren’t bad.
That would be nice to be on Thanksgiving against the Lions
I wish they’d announce it sooner
I have a trip to Seattle to book
And maybe a road game
One of my earliest Seahawk memories is of an AFRTS Europe Thanksgiving Day radio commentary on a game against Dallas. Curt Warner & John Williams ran all over them. I wouldn’t be upset if Walker & Charbonnet did the same again this year.
It’s about early as you can get, but the article outlines one amazing QB and a cadre of decent prospects. Now those okay prospects could develop into superstars, but as of now it looks like less top talent than this just completed draft. The benefit being there may be more okay prospects than this past season.
Unless 4 or 5 QBs blossom into stronger prospects (not impossible, but few would bet on it), the Seahawks are then in position to having to ransom a lot of draft stock to get high enough to snag one. They had pick 5 this year and couldn’t get a QB. You can’t help other teams’ interest, but it just shows how hard it is. Not to mention that high draft picks like that have not come along often in the Carroll era (we only got this high pick thanks to Denver).
Indeed, looking at Seahawks history you can count 3 drafted QBs at decent or above. Russell Wilson has been the only true franchise QB, showing up when the franchise was nearly 40 years old. At this point it’s comfortable to say that while quarterbacks intrigue Schneider he is the ultimate browsing shopper. He talks a lot, takes up the sales staff’s time and then walks out without buying anything.
I don’t think that strategy holds over the next 2 years. Frankly, I don’t think it holds now and was against signing Smith since we’re not close and a harder season with Lock under center would be cheaper and show that Lock isn’t the answer. That would also lead to a higher draft pick where perhaps you could snag that missing QB.
The question is with the Seahawks using Geno as a bridge how will they walk over it? If we have to ransom a draft or two to get a QB that will be unfortunate, but perhaps necessary. The exact shape of that is too far out to see clearly. Heck, we may have a new owner before we have a new QB!
They are replaying the SEA-SF playoff game in NFLN.
Uchenna Nwosu needs to be extended. He was the only player making plays on that defense.
Watching Deejay Dallas play when Walker is rested, I am so glad they drafted Charbonnet. His plan is “put my head down and run into the pile.”
Woolen and Jackson struggled in this game. Woolen Year 2 + Witherspoon is going to be amazing. Jackson had an amazing fingertip batted ball in the end zone to prevent a TD but was targeted all day by the Niners.
Quandre Diggs constantly a shade late to passes to his area. Purdy does not have a serious NFL arm. Must do better.
Geno Smith, for all his good play in 2022, needs a masterclass this offseason in game management. False starts and wasted timeouts. I saw this in the mock game, preseason and now in the playoffs. Unacceptable.
Metcalf had a game that makes me think he is only 70% to his ceiling.
Everyone who says ‘the Seahawks were leading at the half’ to indicate they had a real chance and therefore are close to being a contender has their eyes closed. The Niners gifted them 3 points with :15 to play in the half with two atrocious decisions by Shanahan and Ward.
Michael Dickson is a punting god.
This defense needs a whole new approach to training their players to tackle. I don’t care if Bobby Wagner gives everyone the warm fuzzies. This defense isn’t going anywhere if they cannot tackle.
Any chance you can include Michigan’s JJ McCarthy? He runs a pro offense but doesn’t throw too much. He limits turnovers but also seems like he needs to add some weight and get better on the deep ball. His WR last year certainly didn’t help him as much ad they should have last year in getting open
I will get to him. I can’t say when I watched Michigan during the season he jumped off the screen