The opening game of the Mike Macdonald era had enough talking points to fill a month of discussion. There were extreme positives and negatives, reasons for optimism and concern. The Seahawks threatened to blow a winnable game, then threatened to blow out their opponents. It ended up being closer than necessary.
The big talking point is the offensive line. It crippled the Seahawks in the first half, destroying the offense and diminishing a strong effort by the defense. We’ve all seen bad lines before but this was something else. Nothing worked. Worse still, they initially weren’t finding ways to mitigate the problem.
By the time they’d given up two safeties it had reached a point of embarrassment. A serious looking injury to George Fant added insult to injury.
I had bad thoughts at half-time. How on earth do you fix this in-season? Is Ryan Grubb’s conversion to the NFL just not going to work? Are we really going to have to watch 17 games of this?
Thankfully, they found solutions at half-time. The move to a run-heavy offense settled things down. They leaned on Ken Walker, who was sensational, and suddenly were the team dominating physically. As much as a terrible O-line can derail anything, the second half was a great example of strong play in the trenches driving a team forwards.
Kudos to Grubb for fixing things. We haven’t seen much in the way of adjustments over the last few years, especially not to this effect. It’s encouraging.
They have to play the way they did in the second half next weekend in New England. The concern has to be though, it will become predictable very quickly. While they can lean on the run for now, they’ve got to find a way to improve the performance of this line pronto to expand their options.
There has to be concern about the interior. Laken Tomlinson struggled badly, as did Anthony Bradford. Perhaps playing next to a returning-from-injury Connor Williams didn’t help, along with the lack of familiarity that comes with four new starters up front? Nevertheless, their ability to improve the offensive line will likely dictate Seattle’s ceiling in 2024.
Back to Walker, I sincerely hope he can stay healthy. Playing like this — and if the Seahawks have to lean on the run a lot — he has the talent to contend to be the NFL rushing leader. As a card-carrying fan of violent defense paired with a productive, physical ground attack — I’d love to see that. I’m sure you would too.
I think it’s difficult to form much of an opinion on Geno Smith’s display because of the issues up front. I don’t think the line is an excuse for the bad interception at the start but it certainly was for the rest of a difficult first half. Yet he still made the one great play on offense, rushing for a touchdown in spectacular fashion. Once the running game had settled things down after half-time, he found a far better rhythm and made some accurate, vital throws.
Tyler Lockett’s catch to clinch the game was further evidence of his underrated brilliance. What a critical moment from a player who is a lock to be in the Ring of Honor one day.
Defensively, it was a great performance with the slight caveat that the Seahawks benefitted from playing against Bo Nix and the Broncos. Sean Payton was always going to be conservative with his rookie QB but he went too far — or Nix simply isn’t capable of starting in the NFL at this point.
Clearly they wanted to take the pass rush out of the game with quick passes and by bailing on the pocket quickly. It worked and Seattle’s D-line never had much of a chance to impact things. Everyone else, though, was able to fly around and tee-off on telegraphed dump-offs and short passes.
The defense won’t get this luxury when they face teams like Miami and Detroit in the coming weeks. They will give up some plays because that’s the NFL. They’ll need a lot more support from the offense. Let’s not forget — Macdonald’s Baltimore defense benefitted more than anyone last season from playing with a lead. They’ll need to be comfortable playing in games like the ones we saw on Thursday and Friday night if they want to be really good — trading blows on offense and relying on complementary defense. Here, it was the defense carrying things until the running game caught up. Other teams won’t let Seattle catch up.
Tyrel Dodson was superb and the standout defender for me. Combined with Jerome Baker, I thought Seattle’s linebackers played as well as any pairing since the peak Wagner/Wright days. On top of this, all of the starting defensive backs excelled. Julian Love looks quick and physical and almost like a different player. Rayshawn Jenkins had a strong debut. Tariq Woolen and Devin Witherspoon were very good as expected.
We’ll see more from the pass rushers when they play an opponent less inclined to play the way Denver did today.
This was a really encouraging start for the unit and it was good to see screen passes stopped, completed open-field tackles and players getting off second-level blocks. Apparently, these things weren’t banned after all. The Seahawks pretty much eliminated any yards after contact. It was a smothering, physical performance — exactly what everyone hoped for.
Dee Williams is on the roster to handle kick returns, so it’s a bad sign for him to fumble in week one. A suggestion from me — give him a new number. There’s clearly bad juju attached to #33.
A final thought on Bo Nix in relation to the Seahawks. It’s a warning for what we should be looking for as fans and draft enthusiasts when studying quarterbacks. Nix produced big numbers at Oregon and they won a lot of games. However, when you studied the tape it became apparent that the system and environment was conducive with production, more so than QB inspiration.
We’re seeing that in Oregon now. Dillon Gabriel has 623 passing yards in two games, five total touchdowns, zero turnovers and the Ducks are 2-0. Yet nobody thinks Gabriel has actually played that well and there’s a relatively decent chance he won’t be drafted next year.
Nix never felt like a special player to me and that was emphasised during Senior Bowl practises. I gave him a third round grade, which basically means competent backup for the NFL in quarterback terms.
Unless you possess a fantastically productive scheme that has shown it can transplant different quarterbacks in, I don’t think you can look to players like Nix. Sean Payton clearly thinks he can do this but the jury’s out. He’s had one big success story in Drew Brees, not a string of successes. Kyle Shanahan is a better example of someone having a scheme with interchangeable QB success. Most teams need brilliance. They need extreme physical quality and talent.
There are ways of finding it without owning a top-five pick, as we’ve seen in Seattle with Russell Wilson. Yet you’ve got to look for those standout qualities. That isn’t easy to find — and it’s probably why John Schneider hasn’t drafted QB’s. If he is looking for special, he will wait until it’s there. The evidence so far is that he hasn’t whiffed on anyone since trading Wilson.
It’s also worth noting that while searching for special, you will find it in terms of traits and it won’t always be obvious that it can/will translate to NFL success. Caleb Williams has special qualities galore and he endured an inauspicious start in Chicago on Sunday. Anthony Richardson has more physical talent than maybe anyone else in the NFL, regardless of position, and yet he’s still learning how to be a quarterback. It took Josh Allen two years of strife to become the player he is in Buffalo and he still has some doubters now. Looking for it is important but it carries no guarantee.
I do think today shows us it’s worth waiting for ‘special’ qualities, though. Reaching on a player like Nix will not provide solutions. The Seahawks will need to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later, even if Geno Smith succeeds. He is not a young player and very few make it to their late 30’s, even if they’ve had an unusual career with a lower number of starts. We all get old and that comes with consequences, regardless of your tally of NFL appearances.
Making an ill-advised draft reach on a QB will not be wise. It might only be one game but I don’t see Nix providing the solution Broncos fans hoped for. The Seahawks need to avoid an error like this in the future — and that will require patience and fortune.
“We underachieved in 2023. We all did. Now we’re in a situation where we need to get better. We overachieved in 2022, and we underachieved in 2023 and everybody recognizes that. It’s time for all of us to look into the mirror, myself included, and move forward.”
John Schneider, with those words – spoken in his first press conference after Pete Carroll was fired – set in motion one of the most impressive offseasons in Seahawk history.
Gone was one of the longest-tenured coaches in the NFL. His replacement? A brilliant young tactician without any head coaching experience at this level.
The Offensive Coordinator who frustrated fans and players alike? Also gone. An innovator at the college level with no ties to the current administration was brought in to take advantage of all the weaponry the team had acquired.
The roster? Reshaped to fit their vision. Gone are expensive players who lacked the ability to dramatically alter the outcome of the game. In their place, a rededication to adding depth and talent to the trenches, along with an aggressive mentality that both incorporates intelligence and rises above mere bravado.
The attitude of the whole organization has been shifted as well. Players are held accountable, as are coaches. Excellence in the fundamental aspects of the game is the expectation, not some higher goal to be spoken about motivationally.
Will all these offseason changes bear fruit?
We are about to find out.
First up, the Denver Broncos are in town, themselves having undergone an organizational shakeup.
Gone is Quarterback Russell Wilson, leaving behind a whopping $85 million dead cap number.
Gone are talented players they could not afford.
Wide Receiver Jerry Jeudy and Center Lloyd Cushenberry each signed $50+ million contracts with other teams. Four-year starting Linebacker Josey Jewell signed with the Panthers. Pro Bowl Safety Justin Simmons was cut and signed with Atlanta.
In their place are rookie Quarterback Bo Nix, Wide Receiver Marvin Mims (a second-year player who was more of a returner than a receiver last year), Center Luke Wattenberg (who has one career NFL start), old friend Cody Barton at Linebacker and Safety Brandon Jones, who lost his job at times in Miami due to coverage issues.
The talent pipeline is thin in Denver. Pound for pound, they might be one of the NFL’s least talented rosters.
Their saving grace might be that they have one of the NFL’s best coaches in Sean Payton. He guided the Broncos from an awful 0-3 start (which included an embarrassing 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins) to a respectable 8-9 record, which included wins over Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo and Minnesota in consecutive games.
Therefore, despite the clear talent advantage the Seahawks have, nobody should be taking this game lightly.
How can the Seahawks start their new era with a win? Let us dig into the watch points.
Use the Offense to Control the Game
The Seahawk offense is loaded for bear with talent at the skill positions. They are deep and each player brings something different to the table.
The offensive line – while admittedly being the biggest concern on the team – has made an excellent addition in new Center Connor Williams. He will help stabilize the interior.
Meanwhile, the Broncos featured one of the NFL’s worst defenses last year and yet retained Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph. Due to the constraints we mentioned, they were not able to add significant talent this offseason, and in fact lost some of their better players. They are desperately needing tremendous steps forward from their younger players.
The skill advantage is clear. This is where the Seahawks should plan to exert their will and control the game.
How? Let’s look at Joseph’s numbers as a defensive coach the last five seasons and see what we can discern:
As you can see, Joseph’s defenses have rarely reached the top half of the league in defending the run game. Last year, they were dead last in terms of Yards per Attempt allowed. Even if you scratch out the game where Miami ran for an amazing 350 yards, the Broncos still finish in the bottom five.
Oddly enough though, twelve teams faced more total rushing attempts than the Broncos did last year. When you are getting five yards per carry, why would you not simply lean hard on the run game to trample your opponent?
The Seahawks have a dynamic rushing attack and they need to use it liberally in this game. It gives the offensive line confidence at a very early stage, keeps the clock running, allows the defense to rest and maybe keep some of their tricks hidden for other teams, and opens up the passing game via play action.
In Week 15 last year, the Detroit Lions used the running game against Denver to great effect, rushing 28 times and throwing 36 times. They gained 185 yards on the ground, using the Thunder & Lightning team of David Montgomery (17 rushes) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 rushes). They also gained the team ten first downs and broke four tackles.
After Montgomery tenderized the defense, Gibbs slashed through them. Look at all the explosive runs on his chart:
It is not hard to envision Ken Walker having exactly this kind of day against the Broncos defense. Particularly if they employ Zach Charbonnet to break some tackles and get some tough yards.
Take a look at that Vance Joseph chart for his stats on the pass rush he employs. Notice a pattern? He is one of the NFL’s heaviest blitzing coaches. The Seahawks saw it all the time when he coached the Cardinals.
And yet, is it effective? No. Particularly not last year. Joseph sent blitzers at the fifth-highest rate, and yet created one of the worst pressure rates, only three steps up from the worst unit in the NFL.
However, Joseph’s blitzes are not always designed specifically to get to the passer. They are used to create confusion. To get the Quarterback guessing about who is blitzing pre-snap, and then reacting to who is actually blitzing on the play. It is frequently used as a distraction technique, to disrupt the play and win the down. Sacking the quarterback is a bonus.
Successfully combating blitzes is something the Seahawks need to excel at. Or at least return to their 2022 form. In that year, they had a 65.8% completion rate when blitzed and averaged 5.65 yards per play. In 2023, it was more ‘feast or famine’ with passers completing 59.8% when blitzed, but with 6.36 yards per play and they gained first downs at a better rate.
How can they be better this year? One factor is by having good First and Second downs, which can dramatically reduce the high-pressure Third downs.
Another is by something I have seen in training camp: This creative Mike Macdonald defense has thrown blitzers at the offense in scrimmages from every angle imaginable. From standard pre-snap looks to bizarre concoctions that the Quarterback has to decipher and respond to in real time.
There will not be anything the Broncos throw at Geno Smith that he has not already seen in camp. Likely several times. Can that experience benefit him to a degree that it can alter the outcome of the game?
Finding the hot read or dumping the ball off to a waiting running back will be very important to keep the offense on track.
A bit of good news there: the Linebackers are awful in coverage. Alex Singleton was picked on in the passing game as much as any Linebacker in the NFL, with an ugly 85 targets. He gave up an 80% completion rate and 8.4 yards per catch.
Cody Barton was no better in Washington, with 47 targets with a 78.7% rate and 7 yards per catch.
If Ryan Grubb can find a way to get them in coverage, they should exploit it all game long.
Defend the Entire Line of Scrimmage – Particularly the Middle
Sean Payton’s offense does two things that are difficult to defend: The Quarterback is coached to process quickly and get rid of the ball in a hurry to nullify the pass rush, and they regularly use screen passes as a run game substitute.
Seeing as this is Bo Nix’s first NFL game, we can expect several screens as a way to ease him into his rookie season. Last year, Russell Wilson threw passes to receivers behind the line of scrimmage 27% of the time – a pretty odd number for Wilson considering his profile. What did Nix do at Oregon last year? Glad you asked. The same 27% of his pass plays were to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. He will have no problem operating this part of the offense, and will likely do so better than Wilson did, as he is simply a better fit.
Players will need to be ready for this, having practiced noticing the signs of a screen (like linemen letting rushers come free right off the snap) and pursuing the receiver with all due vigor.
What about the quick passing game? Corners need to respect wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, but if they can jam or disrupt a route even slightly, that could knock the timing off and make Nix have to think on his feet. Most NFL Quarterbacks have trouble with finding their second or third read (just ask Jared Goff), let alone a rookie in his first start. It might be worth occasionally gambling on getting beat to try jamming their receiver to knock the offense out of alignment at a key point in the game.
Something to keep in mind though: Nix has the legs to get out of trouble if his first read is not there. If the edges are cleared out by a pass rusher going too deep, he will take off and run and gain yards that way.
Look at this play in the preseason against the Packers.
The Broncos come out with five receivers and an empty backfield. Also notice Left Tackle Garett Bolles is way off the ball – a sure flag if he does it in a real game.
At the snap, the inside rusher on the left side retreats to a coverage spot, practically turning his back to Nix, and Bolles (using his position advantage) routes the pass rusher upfield.
Notice in the next picture the pass rusher is nearly 10 yards upfield now.
This creates a wide open edge for Nix to scramble and pick up yardage.
Nix will take advantage of holes like that all day if he has them. The Seahawks need to coach their edges to maintain their gaps and use good judgement about when to really step on the gas in the pass rush.
Does that mean they should not try to put pressure on Nix? Of course not. But that pressure needs to come from the middle of the field, be it from standard rushing of Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed or Byron Murphy, or from blitzing Devon Witherspoon or one of the Linebackers. Why?
One of the reasons Bo Nix was so effective in the preseason is he had a clean pocket and got into a rhythm with it. Take the shotgun snap, 3-step drop, 2-steps forward into the pocket as he assesses and then pass. If he has no ability or time to get into that kind of a groove, his processing will struggle. As will his mechanics. He has good feet and can throw on the run, but he has a tendency to get out of alignment in the pocket and make inaccurate throws because he is not square to the receiver. Pushing the middle of the field with intensity will force this kind of reaction from him.
Luke Wattenberg will be in his first game as the starting Center at the position, and Bo Nix rarely took snaps from the Center at Oregon – preferring to work from shotgun – so there may be some inexperience there that the Seahawks can take advantage of. True, he will be flanked by $120 million of guard with Ben Powers on his left and Quinn Meinerz on his right, but this could prove to be a real area of trouble for the Broncos.
Speaking of shotgun, when Sean Payton called for the Quarterback to take the snap from under Center last year instead of from shotgun, 72% of the time it was for a run. With Payton likely wanting to ease Nix into his career, when we see him line up under Center, it may be a tell to the defense that a run is coming.
Win the Unknowns of Week One
There are always surprises in the first week of the season. New players, new plays, wrinkles teams have been working on all offseason in order to catch the opposition off guard, things like that.
The Seahawks have to win their share of the unknowns.
Primarily, that means winning the turnover battle (that impressive four-game winning streak by the Broncos last year? They were +11 in turnover ratio!), playing clean Special Teams and not committing penalties at key times in the game.
Good coaching and solid fundamentals go a long way towards being successful here.
How will Riley Moss fare at Cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain? He only has 23 snaps of NFL experience, but appears to have won the job in camp. Surtain is one of the best and Ja’Quan McMillan is a very solid nickel corner. Will the Seahawks try to exploit that matchup?
What will Jerome Baker look like at Linebacker, having missed so much time in the offseason?
Can George Fant be more than just a fill-in at Right Tackle while Abe Lucas heals? Can they run their full offensive complement with him on that side?
Will Dre’Mont Jones have an impact on the game in this new defense?
Will a Bronco receiver other than Courtland Sutton rise to the occasion when called?
They will need him to. Mike Macdonald has a knack for keeping the opposition’s top receiver weapon in check. In 2022 and 2023, he faced Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens and Amari Cooper a total of thirteen times. Result? He held them to an average of 4.3 catches for 57 yards and .3 touchdowns. Now that is impressive. How did he do it? One of the ways is by using deception in a technique described in this video.
The Seahawks need to turn an impressive offseason into a successful season on the field. That may not come in the form of winning every single game, but playing tough, fundamentally sound football that makes use of the talent on the roster. That will go a long way toward restoring team pride and fans’ confidence in this organization.
This is the most engaged I’ve felt about the Seahawks in years.
Part of it is pure intrigue for a new staff and something different. Part of it is relief that we actually got the change that was needed.
Part of it is also about what the Seahawks are, or at least can be.
One of the best thing’s I did during the long old wait between the draft and the start of the new season was participate in a NFC West ‘fantasy draft’ live streamed on Hawk Blogger’s channel. I took turns picking players from the four teams with Brian, Jeff Simmons and Griffin Sturgeon.
I wanted to do it properly and with a spare afternoon on my hands, I sat down and put together a full horizontal board of all the players on each of the four rosters. Yes, I know, what a fascinating social life I must have.
My expectation going in was that an army of San Francisco players would flood the top of the board, followed by a mix of the others. While it was true that the 49ers clearly had blue chip, proven stars the others lacked (Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner etc) — I had a lot of young Seahawks players in the second and third tier.
I think the feeling over the last few years is that combined together, John Schneider and Pete Carroll had done an underwhelming job. At least in the eyes of fans with Super Bowl ambitions, rather than merely avoiding be awful.
This exercise planted a different thought. The Seahawks have added a lot of good, young talent. What they badly need now is a staff able to turn these players from good to great. They need players to turn into stars.
D.K. Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Charles Cross, Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall. Then you chuck Byron Murphy into the mix and hopefully Abe Lucas in the future.
Not all of these young players can become ‘great’. What if 4-5 can become great, though? Is is possible? I think so.
Then you glean what you can from training camp and pre-season to try and get to know the new staff. That isn’t easy to do and really we won’t have a grasp of their capabilities until the regular season games start this weekend.
There have been some very encouraging signs, though.
Jarran Reed has spent many years in Seattle. These comments, saying that ‘grown man football’ and ‘physicality’ were back in Seattle, while admitting some of that had been lost in the final throws of the Carroll regime, is interesting:
Jarran Reed says Seahawks ready for season and has some interesting thoughts on Mike Macdonald. pic.twitter.com/mrVn6UNj03
The pre-season games spoke to this in a small way. The Seahawks did play a more intense brand of football against the Chargers. They flew around, made tackles and felt like they were close to multiple turnovers. It felt a bit like the early Carroll days again.
The opening drive on offense against Cleveland was both clinical and aggressive. There was no tentatively trying anything out here. Big shots, dagger in the heart, touchdown and off to the showers for the starting unit. Ryan Grubb and Kalen DeBoer took games to their opponents at Fresno State and Washington. It felt like Grubb was showing that same mentality has travelled with him to the Seahawks.
The way the coaches speak fills you with confidence. Grubb seems brilliantly tailor-made for the pro’s. There’s a degree of confidence, perhaps even borderline cockiness. I’ve heard he might not be for everyone and I’m perfectly fine with that. He’s the polar opposite of the shrinking violet sent out to call plays in previous years. Shane Waldron did not feel like a leader. Grubb does. He sounds totally sure of himself, his plan and he speaks with conviction. If nothing else, it instills confidence in anyone listening to him that things will be just fine this year.
The new OC all but admitted they intend to make the most of Metcalf as a receiver — finally unleashing his massive potential — while also noting the importance of the running game. I suspect we’re about to see huge seasons for Metcalf and Ken Walker.
Aden Durde sounds assured and competent — not to mention stylish and charismatic because he has a British accent. He hasn’t spoken much to the media but Leslie Frazier’s Yoda-like presence is reassuring to assist a new, inexperienced staff. No longer will the Head Coach be relying on an old buddy answering to a nickname that is slang for ‘potato’ or ‘home run’ (the first one felt more apt as time went on).
Then there’s Mike Macdonald. He just seems to be on top of his brief. There will undoubtedly be growing pains. I’m convinced the Seahawks will lose at least one game this year through inexperience of the staff, or blow a game they should win. I’m ready and prepared for it (and you probably should be too).
Yet he also seems brilliantly different to Carroll. Those present at camp have noted a vastly different and more intense, serious approach. He speaks about deception, always looking for ways to find an edge. The slogans and platitudes are a thing of the past. He gives the impression that if a problem emerges during the season he won’t be left promising a change of fortune, or be suggesting they’re close to identifying a fix. He might, you know, actually do something about it.
None of this is to diminish what the early Carroll years achieved. Those days couldn’t last forever though. Eventually you have to embrace change.
There was no greater example of the need for something different than Seattle’s problematic defense. It was bad for too long with no hint of a switch in fortunes. Now, there’s reason to believe they can revamp a defense that has persistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL into an actual force. Macdonald inherited the 28th best defense in the league per DVOA in Baltimore. They then ranked 8th and 1st in his two years as defensive coordinator. Will history repeat as he tries to improve Seattle’s 28th ranked defense from 2023?
While I’m sure the debate over Geno Smith’s long term suitability will dominant a lot of the online discourse this season, the Seahawks only need to be more consistent and manage situations better than the last two years to give themselves a legit chance to make sweeping improvements to an offense loaded with weapons.
Really good teams often have a player or a vital unit that other teams wish they had. With Murphy joining Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed at defensive tackle and with Johnathan Hankins supporting as a big-bodied nose, this is a quartet to envy. When Uchenna Nwosu returns, the Seahawks will have deep supporting talent rushing the edge.
Macdonald helped develop Justin Madubuike into a game-changer, while getting career years out of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. Giving him the D-line tools he has in Seattle is exciting — particularly in a year where Aaron Donald and Arik Armstead left the NFC West, weakening rival teams in this exact area.
Then there’s the schedule. The first two weeks are kind, even if nothing should be taken for granted. If nothing else, they are two winnable opportunities. Stern tests await against Miami, Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo and LA — but the Seahawks also get the Giants and Vikings at home, they get the Packers in Seattle rather than Lambeau, I’m not convinced the Falcons and Bears are going to be as good as some people think, nor the Jets for that matter.
None of this means the Seahawks are primed for a Super Bowl run. A dose of realism is required. Mere playoff qualification as a wildcard is very plausible and if they get there, winning a post-season game for the first time since 2019 should be seen as a big success.
That would create a degree of momentum and allow the Seahawks to attack the next off-season with a more serious challenge in mind — armed with the kind of experience the coaches currently don’t possess.
I think a bit more than this outlook can be hoped for, if not expected. I think they can compete for the NFC West title. I even think, as with the Packers a year ago, they can make some waves in the playoffs.
Yet it’s just good to be thinking this way again, rather than gearing up for more of the same. Another year where the defense inevitably collapses. Where the coaches talk of physical play when the product on the field defines finesse. Where the tackling stinks. Where answers are not forthcoming to problems, coaches appear out of their depth and you wonder how much longer we have to watch the 49ers and Rams embarrass the Seahawks, particularly at Lumen Field.
Ah yes, Lumen Field. The place that once had a reputation for being such a problem for opponents. The long travel and an arse-kicking often combined for an inevitable loss the following week for teams making the trek to NFL’s Alaska. Yet as pointed out this week, the Seahawks were just 17-16 at home since 2019 with fans in the stadium and 19-15 on the road. How can that possibly be?
It speaks to how easy the Seahawks had become to play against. Those records also point out how they’d become so middle of the road, with little sign of breaking out and regaining true contender status. Who wants to stay locked in a prison of mediocrity, with only short-lived visitation rights for genuine excitement?
Time to set the tone this weekend and recapture home-field advantage. Time for the team to re-engage fans so they don’t sell half their tickets to travelling Niners or Steelers. Time to make Lumen Field a fortress once again, reinvigorated with a new era of Seahawks football — played in stylish throwback jersey’s that feel destined to become Seattle’s staple again in the near future.
Change was necessary and ownership delivered. John Schneider got Carroll’s replacement right and had a good off-season and draft. The staff appear to have things heading in the right direction and now the team can show us what they’ve been working on.
I think we’ll see more points than ever. I think we’ll see more pressure than ever. I think we’ll see these things called ‘turnovers’ return to the defense. It won’t all be great and there will be issues to discuss too. But I suspect the overall product will be a clear net positive.
I don’t think they could ask for a better week one opponent this weekend. Denver will start a rookie quarterback playing his first NFL game. They lack elite weapons or a difference-making pass-rusher. The Seahawks have had weeks to cook-up a confuse-fest for Bo Nix and you have to feel they’ll have opportunities to score on offense, piling on the pressure and pushing the Broncos to step out of a conservative game-plan for their new starter under center.
I won’t insult you with a ‘no game is easy’ cliché. The Seahawks should win at home on Sunday, unless it proves to be the contest they chuck away due to inexperience — which is probably their biggest enemy this weekend. Even then, they are more talented and better placed to attack — on both sides of the ball.
Bring on the new era. Some of us have been waiting a long time for this.
If you missed my latest conversation with Puck Sports, check it out here.
Don’t forget immediately after the game we’ll be doing our post-game live stream on YouTube. I’ll post the embed video on the blog or you can subscribe to my YouTube channel (@robstatonfootball) for notifications.
The LSU vs USC game on Sunday was highly entertaining and produced a reassuring performance from the two starting quarterbacks.
Firstly, this was a great showcase against the constant transferring around of quarterbacks. Both players looked so comfortable within their respective schemes. There has to be a concern that QB’s are going to chase money and glory, rather than development as time moves on. Garrett Nussmeier and Miller Moss made as strong a case as possible for staying put and developing.
Secondly, it also a reminder that players can emerge. There was so much hype for Conner Weigman at Texas A&M, watching him crash and burn and look undraftable against Notre Dame was disappointing. Here, these two made an early case for being on NFL radars.
Let’s start with Nussmeier.
I thought this was a terrific performance albeit in a losing effort. He appeared comfortable throwing from the pocket, his feet were well and set and his throwing base enabled him to deliver passes with accuracy. His arm strength is certainly good enough and on the rare occasions that he had to move around, he did an excellent job re-setting his feet, turning his body to the intended target and delivering on the money.
Despite playing behind a line with two highly rated offensive tackles, he did have to operate from an imperfect pocket at times and he did very well dealing with pressure. He can flick the ball out of his hand to generate velocity easily. His throwing motion is naturally sound and clean.
Nussmeier isn’t a ‘wow’ athlete but he did show off natural talent as a passer. He doesn’t force the ball when he uncorks downfield or when he has to throw with extra effort.
I did think he was too quick to check down at times, missing deeper field targets and not allowing plays to develop. He was a little too eager to get the ball out and there were some missed opportunities. I think he left some third down conversions on the field as a consequence — although the offensive scheme felt restrictive and conservative. There were too many one-read third down situations meaning the defense only had to cover the primary target to get a stop. I don’t think LSU were aggressive enough on the night and I think their creativity on third-down was too limited.
Nussmeier looked very comfortable throwing on the move when he bootlegged out of the pocket. His first score was a nicely placed high throw giving his receiver a chance to go up and make a play. He showed he can throw off-balance and still generate power.
I thought he was technically very sound, in complete control within his system which he clearly understood, he didn’t look flustered in a close high-pressure game and he has enough of a physical skill-set to have a shot at the NFL.
I’m not sure what his ceiling is in terms of the NFL draft and I’d like to see LSU push the ball downfield more. However, I liked him a lot more than I expected to and it was very easy to imagine him in the NFL based on this performance. His draft stock will be determined by his physical ceiling and performances over the coming weeks but there are definitely things to like. The NFL is increasingly predicated on creativity and physical quality but you still need to throw with timing and structure in key situations. There’s reason to believe Nussmeier can do this based on the small sample size here.
He finished the game 29/38 passing for 304 yards, two touchdowns and a late desperation pick with seconds remaining.
Miller Moss shared a lot of the positive traits we saw with Nussmeier. He isn’t the same size and I’d be interested to get a proper measurement given he had quite a few batted balls at the LOS. He’s only listed at 6-1 and 205lbs. However — he looked at home in Lincoln Riley’s system. His rhythm and timing was excellent and he had a great grasp of his role within the scheme.
Moss’ placement and accuracy on short/medium range throws was very good and he showed he can attack the middle of the field and throw down the seam into traffic with accuracy.
This is a NFL pass in terms of timing, anticipating, accuracy and velocity. It’s hard to see in the screenshot but it’s also a layered pass thrown between two defensive backs:
Why was this my favourite throw of the game? Look at the left tackle who has been driven back into the quarterback. Regardless, Moss isn’t impacted by this. He doesn’t move off the spot or overreact. When he delivers this pass, he can’t see the intended target. He trusts the play because he understands the route and the scheme. Thus, he throws to an area and leads the receiver. When the receiver catches this pass, he is almost perfectly placed between two defenders. This was a big-time completion for a significant gain, thrown down the middle of the field with pressure to Moss’ blind-side. This is NFL stuff even if at the next level there won’t be quite as much space over the middle and the window will be tighter.
He also showed poise to convert key third down plays (eg — 11:14 left in the third quarter). These are the throws that some teams focus on the most. One evaluator once told me he watched every third down throw a quarterback makes and that’s how he judges his ability. Moss played well in that regard vs LSU.
He threw a 40-yard pass to the left sideline with ease that looked the part — showing ideal loft and placement with 6:50 left in the first half. He would’ve had two scores but for a bobbled catch in the red zone on a third and goal with 4:25 left in the second quarter. The receiver really should’ve controlled the ball.
Moss’ only touchdown was a beauty — a perfect throw exploiting a 1v1 matchup to the right corner of the pylon, thrown from the 35-yard-line. It was a wonderfully placed downfield shot after being given a free play for an offside flag. He followed it up with a drive to win the game with some big time throws — including his final pass which was exceptional and clutch to the left sideline, drawing a bonus targeting flag to set up USC for the go-ahead winning score in the red zone.
He did move around in the pocket a bit too much unnecessarily at times encouraging pressure — but not to the extent Cam Ward does. Moss is athletic enough to scramble and extend plays but he’s not a dynamic run threat based on this game. Sometimes he runs into trouble as mentioned. I think his fade throws could use some work too — they need to be thrown higher.
Lincoln Riley has clearly heard the noise from last year. This was a vastly improved defensive performance from USC and his offense was rolling again. Can this continue? Riley has been a QB whisperer in the past even if his work with Caleb Williams felt below par given the talent of the two individuals.
Moss finished 27/36 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and no turnovers. I’m very intrigued to see more.
Overall a great game with two eye-catching quarterbacks. This is the kind of game you love to see when you write thousands of words about the draft. Nussmeier and Moss are on the radar now.
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This was a battle between two quarterbacks many see as capable of gatecrashing the first round. In reality, I think this game showed us that’s unlikely without major, sudden improvement.
This was only Weigman’s fifth college start. That has to be remembered. But amid all the lofty talk of being a high pick based on a completely inappropriate four-game sample size last season, this was a reality check. He isn’t remotely close to being considered a draft prospect on this evidence, let alone a first rounder. The accuracy, poise and experience is badly lacking.
He threw an awful interception in the second quarter, looking unnecessarily antsy in a clean pocket. His footwork was all over the place and he sailed a pass way over the receiver and straight to a safety.
Weigman ended the first half with another bad pick — he didn’t read the cornerback undercutting the receiver and threw it straight to him. He ended the game with a throw that should’ve been picked off in a very similar fashion.
There were no big plays, no real fluidity. There was very little to admire from a NFL perspective. He looks like a player who needs another full season or two to develop into something, rather than someone who should be on anyone’s NFL radar for 2025. He finished 12/30 for 100 yards with zero TD’s and two picks.
For Leonard, it felt like we were watching the exact same player we saw at Duke. He’s got the size. He’s got a decent arm. He can move around. But he’s never developed into an accomplished throwing quarterback. He remains a big athlete playing the position. That’s fine when you need a yard and want him to try and run to move the chains. But he hasn’t shown an ability to be a progression-based accurate passer who can work a scheme and challenge opponents with a consistent arm. This game showed more of the same. And yet, on a positive note, as we saw during his time at Duke — when he needs to come up with a drive in a tight game, he is capable of delivering.
Leonard almost gave up a horrible pick-six at the end of the third quarter. The cornerback anticipated the throw, baited the pass then jumped the route. If he catches it, he’s running it back for a touchdown but he couldn’t come up with it. There was very little in the way of dynamic downfield throwing or intricate, accurate consistency throughout the night.
However, as mentioned, we get to the last five minutes of the game. He converted a big 3rd and 5 play deep in his own territory to get a drive moving. Then he had a great shot to the right sideline to exploit a 1v1 outside for a chunk pass-play. He then ran for a first down, sprinting to the perimeter. At this point Texas A&M were tired and struggling. Two big runs by the running back capped off the drive with Notre Dame taking a seven-point lead with very little time to spare. This one drive sealed the game.
This is Leonard. He did this at Duke too. You just wish he could add some polish and technical skill to his passing. He finished 18/30 for 158 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. He also ran 12 times for 63 yards.
Now compare Leonard’s drive to Weigman’s subsequent attempt to rescue the game for Texas A&M. He threw out of bounds, then threw behind on a miscommunication with his receiver. They ran for a modest gain and then on fourth down, he threw incomplete with a cornerback jumping the route. It should’ve been an interception and possibly a pick-six but either way, it was game over.
Until either player shows a lot more, I won’t be considering them as likely first round talents in 2025. Weigman needs to focus on having an actual college career, while Leonard still needs to become an athletic quarterback, rather than an athlete attempting to play quarterback.
A couple of quick defensive notes too — Notre Dame’s undersized defensive tackle Howard Cross remains one of my favourites in college football. He is a pass-rushing menace and does such a good job swimming into the backfield. He had a sack in the second quarter with a classic interior rush on third down to force a punt. I would draft him whatever his size — he can do a job. The size, though, will dictate how early he goes.
Nic Scourton made his Texas A&M debut and while some have him as a future first rounder, I’m not convinced. He’s big and has some mobility for his size but has he got the burst and bend? It felt a bit weird that they took him off the field on 3rd and 8 late in the first half. You never want to see that.
Notes on the Georgia prospects as they demolish Clemson
Clemson, along with a few other notable teams (Florida) have not adjusted well to the transfer portal era. As a consequence, they are relying on solely working within the recruitment market. It’s an admirable approach, one I wish was working. But it isn’t. They’ve become a shadow of the team that used to be nationally relevant and their fall highlights the broader demise of the ACC — as we drift towards an inevitable ‘super conference’ or just two massive competing conferences like the NFL.
As such, it’s hard to get much out of Georgia slapping them around the field for four quarters. Here are my notes anyway.
I don’t think Carson Beck is the shoe-in QB1 many believe. The Georgia system is very much suited to him. There are a lot of short passes and dump-offs. It’s not a stretch the field system. Credit to Beck for executing the scheme he runs but I’m not sure his physical ceiling is very high. He needs to hit his shallow crossers, his slants etc — while playing behind an excellent college O-line. This same system enabled Georgia to have success with Jake Fromm and Stetson Bennett.
Beck puts the ball in the right areas including in the red zone. He has good size. He’s a bit more athletic than you might think but not in a way that’ll make him particularly dynamic as a runner, extender or scrambler. He made some nice runs though against Clemson when the field opened up.
In terms of pure physical and natural talent, he is not on the same level as Shedeur Sanders. Yet for coaches who value someone who will come in and master their system and basically do what they want, he will carry appeal.
This is the analogy I’d use for Beck. Being the Georgia quarterback is like trying to reverse-park a top of the range sports car that looks and sounds amazing, with parking sensors, a rear camera and power steering. You still have to execute the park job and you can even do it with a touch of finesse. Yet everything is there for you, it’s just about executing. At times it feels like Sanders at Colorado is pretty much trying to reverse-park a big red van from the 1970’s and the wing mirrors have fallen off (although admittedly, he has a couple of very good receivers).
Beck showed again in this game he’s a very tidy, accomplished player. He’s not a wow player though. There will be teams who really value what he does. But it’s currently difficult to project a draft range for a player like this.
On the other hand, it’s pretty clear that safety Malaki Starks deserves top-20 pick attention. He had a wonderful high-pointed interception on a deep throw to the right sideline in this game. The ball did hang in the air an awful long time but it’s still an outstanding play from the safety. He showed last year that he’s a rangy, hard-hitting, very quick defender. He’s not just about speed and coverage ability either — his run defense is excellent. He was a first round talent after my summer scouting work from last season and nothing about this game made me second guess that assessment.
I’m also quite high on linebacker Jalon Walker. He’s so quick to fly to the ball, he’s an electric force who can attack downfield. He also carries some pass-rushing chops off the edge. He’s playing as a more conventional linebacker this year and led Georgia in tackles (six) against Clemson, while registering 1.5 sacks and 1.5 TFL’s. I thought Mykel Williams, the highly touted defensive lineman, was pretty quiet. He had a couple of TFL’s but as with last year, you’re left waiting for the ‘big moments’ where he splashes and shows off his size, length and athleticism.
Notes on Quinn Ewers
I thought this was a very good start for Ewers, who let’s not forget lost his top two receivers, his receiving tight end and a good college offensive tackle this year to the NFL. His release and the way he spins the football out of his hand or with a flick of the finger is superb. I’m very much drawn to players who can deliver velocity and just rip the ball with minimum effort. Ewers shows off improbable delivery angles with the ball bursting out of his hand when he identifies a target. I’m permanently shocked at how compact his delivery is, so that even when he has that split second longer in the pocket to allow a receiver to uncover, and you think he’s going to get hit, he can get the ball out to where it needs to go in the nick of time.
Ewers’ first two touchdown passes against Colorado State were nicely delivered, accurate throws. His interception was unfortunate — his arm was hit as he threw after stepping up into the pocket. The pass looped up into the air and was caught by a defender. It’s more of a forced fumble than a pick.
He ended the day with a party-piece no-luck pass. I mean, how can you not be impressed with this?
This no look pass is why Quinn Ewers is QB1 and the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL darft pic.twitter.com/vtkWstGLTh
The natural talent oozes out of Ewers. Bigger tests await and staying consistent and injury-free will determine his draft stock. However, he is one of the more gifted players to play in college football and teams will have that Alabama tape from last season in the front of their minds when doing eval’s next year.
Notes on Wisconsin’s Tyler Van Dyke and Jack Nelson
Wisconsin ran a conservative game-plan against Western Michigan. I thought overall TVD played OK. He wasn’t really pushed. There were a lot of shorter throws and dump-offs. He made some runs with his legs and looked more agile than he did at Miami. He made one great 3rd and 10 conversion, scrambling to his right and then as he was clipped by a blitzing DB and going to the turf, he somehow was able to still throw the ball for a 14-yard completion.
TVD can throw off a boot-leg motion with ease, he has the core and arm strength to generate power on the run without needing to be properly set.
He should’ve been picked-off late in the second quarter with an awful throw right to a defender (it was dropped). He forced another red zone throw into coverage that was bobbled and dropped in the third quarter. These kind of forced throws and errors dogged his 2023 season at Miami. His internal clock was also off too often — sitting in the pocket and inviting pressure.
There weren’t many deep shots in the game-plan which was a shame.
There’s something here at least physically with TVD but I’m not convinced he’s ever going to put it together. He’s missing that bit of magic and some consistency. He has a lot of the physical characteristics you look for in a NFL starter but he seemingly can’t cut out the mistakes, play on time and highlight his physical talent without the negatives. He showed he can do it in his first season at Miami but in this game, it felt like a continuation of what we saw last year. He can look good at times, right up until the point the wheels come off a bit. But the physical potential is there.
I really like Jack Nelson the Wisconsin left tackle by the way. Physical, recovers well if he looses initial leverage, gets into position and he’s not an easy out for any edge rusher. He can deal with inside counters. He’s probably a right tackle at the next level but he’s interesting.
Quick notes on the Ohio State players
I’ve not watched the full game but I did want to offer some thoughts based on a quick skim through some extended highlights. I quite liked safety Lathan Ransom when I watched him this summer and he led Ohio State in tackles (eight) and also had two TFL’s and returned a fumble for a touchdown in the game against Akron. I think he has some day-two potential for the next level with reasonable size and a rounded, versatile game. Cornerback Denzel Burke had an interception — stealing it away from the receiver as he tried to complete a catch. Burke has as much potential as any cornerback not named Will Johnson in this class.
How Will Howard gets on at quarterback will be fascinating to see. His first touchdown is a frozen rope, right on the money to Jeremiah Smith (Geno’s cousin) on a 10-yard slant. He also threw a nice 50-yard downfield pass to Smith for a big gain. Howard’s final score was an anticipation throw over the middle, allowing the receiver to create YAC and get in the end zone. Tougher challenges await and Howard’s ceiling might be somewhat capped — but he’s a better athlete than many realise, his arm is decent and he has a real spirit to his attitude.
Notes on Miami’s Cam Ward
I thought this was an extremely entertaining showing from Ward, albeit with the caveat of who Miami were playing. The Florida Gators have been a mess for a long time. Their current coach felt like a lame-duck entering the season and after one game, it now feels like ‘when’ not ‘if’ he’s fired. Like Clemson, they haven’t operated in the transfer portal well enough and are relying on young players thrust into playing too early — with significant doubts as to whether the coaches in charge are capable of developing them. They’ve lost key players like Trevor Etienne to rival Georgia. Based on what they showed against Miami, I’m not sure who Florida will beat at the moment.
Ward and the Hurricanes easily handled their opponent and looking at their powder-puff schedule, they might not face a stern test all season. I’d caution against building too much hype based on this game or in future games. Mario Cristobal might be a constant liability but even he might not be able to screw up a year like this.
We saw the best of the quarterback and this was a nice showcase opportunity to express what Ward does well. He loves to play off script, move around and improvise — with positive and negative consequences. In this game he had some really nice plays as the game went on. Physically he has some talent. I thought his best throw was an excellent 32-yard lob to the left sideline with 7:20 in the third quarter. Accuracy, anticipation, timing and velocity. That was a NFL throw. He then capped it off with an excellent scramble and pass to the end zone for a touchdown. There were four or five highlight reel plays in the game that showed off Ward at his best.
However, I’ve watched Ward live in person. I’ve also watched every Washington State game I could find online over the last two seasons. I would expect him to do well in a game like this, in August, against an overmatched opponent. And it shouldn’t gloss over the other things he’s shown on tape in his college career.
His decision making and tendency to move around too much gets him into trouble as much as it also can be his best aspect. This was on show with his interception against Florida — a really poor throw across his body after scrambling unnecessarily.
There was some A-gap pressure but he sidesteps it. As you see below, he can sit in the pocket and wait for the receiver to uncover working across the middle:
The red circle is the place where he could/should be in the pocket. The black circle shows the receiver has separated and is wide open. Instead, the QB has set off and is running to his left, a big error because he’ll need to readjust his whole body to set and throw, or he’ll end up throwing across his body (which is what happens):
He ends up trying to throw to the same receiver but instead of delivering an easy pass from a mostly clean pocket, look at the situation he ends up in — he’s throwing from an awful angle, with terrible body position and a defender in his face:
The throw sails and is picked off.
When Ward was at Washington State he tried to do too much and we saw mistakes. I’m not sure swapping to an easier situation should excuse the two previous years of that, or the fact it’s still showing in this game.
There are clean pockets where he doesn’t come close to setting his feet, playing on schedule and he drifts and freelances. This leads to throws that are off, such as the one behind his receiver with eight minutes left in the second half on Saturday when it was a fairly easy pitch-and-catch. In the NFL, he’ll need to be able to sit in an unclean pocket, let alone a clean one, and rely on his feet and arm being coordinated to deliver accurate passes. He won’t be able to move around constantly and play backyard football down-to-down.
There were examples in the game where he was leaving the pocket unnecessarily in quite a frustrating way. You don’t have to drop back 20 yards like he did mid-way through the first quarter in a perfectly clean pocket only to throw the ball out of bounds and give yourself no shot of a redzone touchdown because you’ve put yourself in an impossible situation.
How do you go from this:
To ending up in this position, with Florida only bringing a three-man rush, predictably failing to create any pressure? Why has he dropped into this position?
On the very next play he immediately started drifting backwards again off the snap, for no reason, dropping 10 yards and then having to dump it into the turf. His instinct is too often to get on the move — either out of the pocket or backwards. He doesn’t need to do this.
Now in fairness, he showed he can be better — because forty seconds after the play referenced a moment ago in the second half — he delivers a great chunk play by setting his feet and playing conventionally. It has to be more consistent though and what tended to happen at Washington State is when things unravelled and the games became tougher, he’d try to do more all the time and that’s when the errors stacked up. The big challenge this season is to become more conventional and use the creativity to be a force for exciting big plays, not the sum-part of your game with mixed results.
I think he can do this. Yet I’m not sure Miami will challenge him to — especially if the freelancing leads to a performance like Saturday. With no big test on the schedule, I suspect he’ll just carry on playing this way and it’ll make for production, if not allaying fears of NFL executives about how his game translates.
I came into the season feeling like Ward was a day three pick. Remember, he had a strange off-season. He took an age to decide where he was going to play college football, before then surprisingly announcing he was turning pro. Then, he reneged on that and withdrew his name from the draft, before joining Miami. It may be that all’s well that end’s well — yet I don’t think any of that process ties along with a player receiving the kind of feedback he was perhaps expecting.
Based on what we saw on Saturday, Ward will improve his stock. However, I would urge people to be realistic about the environment, the actual challenge at Miami, the fact he still has to play for Cristobal and the skill-set NFL teams look for in a quarterback they’re prepared to take early. Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix elevated their way into round one playing within structure from the pocket. Caleb Williams was a phenomenal physical talent, a genuine rare player. Jayden Daniels dominated from the pocket and sprinted around like Lamar Jackson to make huge plays as a runner. Ward is creative and fun to watch — but his freelancing style will cause scouts frustration as well as enjoyment this year.
At 1pm PT I will be joining Brian at Hawk Blogger to preview the start of the new season for the Seahawks. Do join us:
