Month: September 2024 (Page 2 of 3)

My early thoughts on the Seahawks, the future and the 2025 draft class

September 19, 2024 /

It’s still too early to form any big opinions on the 2025 draft class — and it’s especially too early to pass judgement on what the Seahawks could potentially do next April. However, I wanted to share some thoughts as we approach the fourth weeked of the college football season.

Currently I think this is shaping up to be a difficult first round, with only a handful of blue-chip players and little in the way of legit first round depth. There have been years when a board looks this way in September/October and changes by the end of the season, Senior Bowl and combine. At the moment though, it’s not looking like a particularly strong draft at the top end.

When there have been drafts like this in the past, such as in 2013 and 2015, the Seahawks traded premium draft stock for proven veterans. That’s something to remember. They also made the expensive Jamal Adams trade during the covid-impacted era, when it was trickier to get intel on prospects.

I’m not predicting the Seahawks will make a move similar to the Leonard Williams trade pre-deadline, or go big-game hunting in the off-season for a star, but unless there’s a big change in how the first round is looking, I wouldn’t rule it out.

One of the big off-season areas of focus will be the offensive line. I talked about this the other day but Will Campbell at LSU, often touted as a top-10 pick online, is not playing remotely close to that level. I’m not convinced he can stick at tackle and might have to move inside and I have a day-two grade on him currently. His team-mate Emery Jones has only been marginally better — but at least he has a bit more intensity to his play.

Kelvin Banks Jr at Texas has been better but still mostly ‘good’ not ‘great’ and I wonder if he’s destined to move inside too. I think he has a legit shot to go early but it’ll be interesting to see if the league views him as a tackle or guard.

There are some tackles I think are being undervalued. Ohio State’s Josh Simmons has ideal size, good feet and pass-protects well. I think he could be a top-45 pick at tackle. Jack Nelson at Wisconsin can be a tone-setting, physical right tackle or a dominant guard. I’m usually sceptical of small-school buzz online but Charles Grant at William & Mary is legitimately athletic and looks the part. How he performs at the Senior Bowl, assuming he attends, will make or break his stock. Aireontae Ersery at Minnesota also has all the physical tools required to start at the next level.

I’d be particularly interested in Nelson to play guard in Seattle with right tackle versatility and I believe he warrants a second round grade. However, there are two other players I want to focus on here. Alabama’s Tyler Booker was the first non-quarterback I wrote about for this draft cycle and I still rate him very highly. He has great size, he plays with an edge, he’s a five-star athlete and he’s even spelled at left tackle this season. He is an A+ character player and could be a day-one starter next year. The Seahawks will probably need to find a new starting left guard for 2025 so the fit makes sense.

The other player is Arizona’s Jonah Savaiinaea. He is starting at tackle currently. I don’t like that fit. I think his footwork will be a problem defending NFL speed off the edge. However, I think he can be an exceptional guard. When he can block square-on, place his hands on an opponent and control blocks, his vice-like grip and tremendous power make him a dominant force. If a team is willing to move him inside, I suspect he could quickly develop into one of the better NFL guards. Both he and Booker play with a physical intensity combined with plus athleticism.

The other interior line options are thin. It’s looking like a quite poor center class — the hope will have to be that the Senior Bowl uncovers some options here, possibly through converting players to the position. I am looking forward to seeing how Parker Brailsford gets on in the SEC for Alabama. However, I’d advise rooting especially hard for Connor Williams to succeed this year and earn an extension. Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson has excellent athleticism but last year his tape was so underwhelming. This is a big year for him. I think Georgia’s Dylan Fairchild warrants third round consideration currently but I found his team-mate Tate Ratledge (who is having surgery on an ankle injury) a little bit overrated.

I’m starting to lose faith that we’ll ever see a truly dynamic, modern tight end in Seattle. In fairness, they are rare. As we’re seeing with Kyle Pitts — even the supposed sure things can fail to make an impact. The Seahawks drafting AJ Barner this year perhaps spoke to how they might approach things going forwards, although they did re-sign Noah Fant. It is a good tight end class though — with Colston Loveland a near lock for the top-20. Tyler Warren is my favourite non-first round type — he has an excellent, rounded skill-set and could be a top-50 pick. Mitchell Evans, Jake Briningstool, Mason Taylor and others have impressed so far, while I’m looking forward to watching Utah for Brant Kuithe.

There are good defensive linemen eligible for next year. Mason Graham at Michigan should be a top-five pick. TJ Sanders at South Carolina is someone I think has top-50 potential. Tyleik Williams has tremendous run-defending ability with the potential to be more than he’s shown as a pass rusher. Howard Cross is a pure penetrating threat but lacks ideal size. I think Kenneth Grant and Deone Walker are a little bit overrated and see them more as day two types (many consider them first rounders).

Abdul Carter and Jalon Walker are two dynamic playmaking linebackers who would fit well in the Mike Macdonald system — but both could/should go early. After that, it feels like an underwhelming linebacker group with mostly mid/late round types — although I need to do more work on the position. Alabama’s Deontae Lawson reads plays very well and just seems to gravitate to the ball. He has second round potential. Team-mate Jihaad Campbell has the frame of an edge rusher and might be an ill-fit at the next level playing off-the-ball linebacker but he also has major athletic talent.

There will be opportunities for teams to add in the secondary. Aside from the bigger names, I really enjoyed watching Shavon Revel and think he will have a good chance to go in round one at cornerback. South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori really intrigues me, I’m a big fan because of his great size, speed, instinct and versatility. There are other safety’s too — Kevin Winston Jr, Keon Sabb, Lathan Ransom, Hunter Wohler and Rod Moore have caught the eye. Malaki Starks will likely be out of reach.

I’ll finish with the much-discussed quarterback position. An argument is often made that because Geno Smith has had an unusual career path and hasn’t actually started many games since entering the league in 2013, he might be better positioned to enjoy a longer career deep into his 30’s. The Seahawks can’t bank on this. The worst thing they could do is assume Smith will be able to play on for years to come (they won’t do this) as it’s something very few quarterbacks achieve.

Smith turns 34 in less than a month. He is in the latter end of his physical peak and to his credit still looks incredibly sharp athletically. Yet when players get to their mid-30’s, nature tends to take over. Whether you’ve started 40 NFL games or 200, getting old is getting old. The Seahawks seem to be taking things year-to-year which is wise.

The best approach would be to plan for all eventualities — and it looks like the Seahawks are well on top of this. That’s why they made the Sam Howell trade. They knew they had to add a younger player this year and will likely continue to look to add.

By taking this approach they’ll be covered either way — they can plan for the future while also retaining Smith if he’s able to perform at a good level for a few more years.

Given the experience of the 2023 quarterback class so far, not to mention the growing pains for the 2024 class in the first two weeks, it wouldn’t be a bad plan to draft a quarterback with the intention of bedding him into the system without any pressure to start early. After years of the NFL throwing quarterbacks in at the deep end, we might be about to see a shift. This will be even more likely if Michael Penix Jr excels in 2025, 2026 or whenever he replaces Kirk Cousins in Atlanta.

It certainly worked for Patrick Mahomes. Clearly Mahomes also had the talent and the right coach and weapons. That helps. Yet this feels like the best plan to mimic for Seattle. Copy the Chiefs if you can. Smith is similarly well placed, as he’s showing, to be a similar or perhaps even better version of Alex Smith in Kansas City. Drafting someone in 2025 or 2026 as an heir-apparent would be prudent. Then you won’t have to start a rookie and can make an educated call on when to pass the torch.

There’s no downside to this. The worst case scenario is Smith plays deep into his 30’s and you never hand off the baton to the new guy. This isn’t a problem at all though, because it’d simply mean Smith playing well enough to warrant remaining as the starter. As the Eagles showed when they controversially drafted Jalen Hurts in round two despite recently paying Carson Wentz, you can never over-prepare at the most important position in football.

The best case scenario would be a seamless transition as we saw with Mahomes. Win now with Smith, yet still plan for the future. The Seahawks have an ideal opportunity here that few teams possess.

However, it also takes the right player being available. I’m not yet convinced that the right player is in the 2025 class. Quinn Ewers is an excellent talent but he’s injured again. Shedeur Sanders does not strike me as an individual John Schneider would rush to anoint as the future of the Seahawks franchise. Is Carson Beck dynamic enough as a passer or as a person? Will he go too early anyway?

There are players I can imagine Schneider having interest in beyond the three most talked about quarterbacks. Garrett Nussmeier is showing legit potential as a pro-level pocket passer at LSU and I wrote about him in detail on Wednesday. He might prefer a second year starting for the Tigers before turning pro but with the technical level he’s showing, there’s a chance he will start to move into legit top-50 consideration.

Cam Ward has physical tools and a personality I think the Seahawks will be open too — but I do wonder whether his tendency to drift in the pocket and be too quick to improvise may be exposed later this season. I wrote about this in more detail here. At the moment Miami are beating up weak opponents. Ward unravelled somewhat at Washington State when facing adversity.

As much as I wrote in the week about a reality check on Jalen Milroe’s supposed development, I do think he’ll be a name to monitor closely throughout this process. His inability (so far) to throw over the middle, a lack of processing evidence from the pocket and the fact he’s pretty much playing as a big-armed running back will likely preclude him from being considered by the Shanahan tree coaches.

However, we know John Schneider likes a big arm and athleticism at the position. Ryan Grubb wants to attack all areas of the field and Milroe has the arm to do this. He’s playing for Kalen DeBoer this year which could lead to crossover potential. Character and personality matters a lot to Schneider at this position and Milroe is A+ in that category. He might be a uniquely intriguing quarterback to the Seahawks. Not to mention he could be available in a range between picks #60-80, depending on what happens during the rest of this season. It’ll be interesting to see what he does against Georgia in Alabama’s next game, which takes places a week on Saturday. Although I will say, at the moment I don’t see a player remotely close to being ready to start in the NFL. He still looks like a great athlete playing quarterback and he needs to be better from the pocket.

There are others too. I think Drew Allar’s frame, arm and athleticism are right up Schneider’s street but I’m not sure you can take him earlier than round four. Let’s see how Will Howard’s season at Ohio State goes. We’ve also talked recently about Brady Cook, Miller Moss and Max Brosmer — plus Riley Leonard will try and repair his stock after the nightmare of Northern Illinois.

Personally I don’t have a problem — at all — with John Schneider being picky at the quarterback position. He hasn’t whiffed on anyone since the Russell Wilson trade, so why wouldn’t you back his judgement? If there is someone he likes next year, or in 2026, I don’t think he’ll hesitate to pull the trigger. For the right player I think he’d be aggressive if necessary.

Having Geno Smith playing the way he is currently makes this a good situation for Seattle. If he continues this level of performance, they don’t have to force anything. Look how being desperate has impacted the Carolina Panthers. They traded for Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young. They tried to acquire Deshaun Watson. It’s been a disaster. The Seahawks have positioned themselves to avoid this. They can now play the ‘win now’ game and look ahead.

As for Sam Howell, I’m not writing him off. You have him under contract for another year next season and it’d be ideal to have him remain as a backup with starting experience at a cost effective price. If he grows within the next 12 months to warrant consideration to be ‘the guy’ in the future, great. At the moment it’s difficult to project he’ll be a future starter. He lasted to round five for a reason despite having no character or injury concerns. I graded him in round four and he went about where he should’ve gone in the draft. He’s a plus backup but he’s not likely, in my opinion at least, to be the person who eventually takes over from Smith as the next starter.

I’ve mentioned a lot of names in this piece but it’s important to remember it’s only the 19th September. Things can and will change. Players can still emerge and stock will fluctuate. The Senior Bowl is critical in this process, as is the combine. Furthermore, we’re only two games into the Seahawks’ season. This time last year, Seattle had one horrible loss to the Rams and one great win in Detroit. Who could’ve predicted what followed? By this time next month, things could’ve changed. That’s why we’ll keep reflecting and discussing both the current roster and players in the draft cycle.

Finally, if there’s another site on the internet producing 5750 words of draft/Seahawks talk in two pieces in the middle of September, I haven’t seen it. So if you appreciate what we do — subscribe to our YouTube channel, watch the videos we do including the weekly hit with Puck Sports and there’s Patreon too if you want to support our work.

Scouting notes week three: Garrett Nussmeier in review, plus Jalen Milroe, Brady Cook, non-QB’s & more

September 18, 2024 /

Garrett Nussmeier review vs South Carolina

This was my third time watching LSU this season and on each occasion I’ve been impressed with Nussmeier. While he had some sloppy moments at the end of the South Carolina game on Saturday, he still led his team to victory while flashing anticipation, accuracy, a NFL arm with touch and good decision making. He was also facing a strong defense with NFL talent in a hostile road environment with an excellent home crowd in attendance. LSU had to win this game and they did, mostly thanks to their quarterback.

With 2:45 remaining in the first half, he steps into the pocket knowing he’s going to get drilled. He still delivered a fantastic layered strike 25 yards down the seam:

He did well to deliver this pass over the top of one defender and in-between two others while facing pressure. Look at this screen-shot to see the margin for error, while knowing you’re about to get blasted by a pass-rusher:

That is a NFL-level throw.

Then there’s this pass with 13:40 left in the third quarter. Again he faces pressure from his left side. Nussmeier throws as he’s contacted by the edge rusher and still delivers a 40 yard dime exploiting 1v1 coverage on the outside. Note how long the ball hangs in the air. This is perfect loft and touch on the pass, with enough velocity to get it downfield. It’s also a very catchable ball — you can throw with too much arm when you go deep. This is touch plus velocity plus accuracy:

The anticipation and direction on the throw is excellent — he delivers the ball to an area where he anticipates the receiver will be, long before he’s anywhere near the spot. This is an exceptional deep throw.

He had a key conversion on 3rd and 7 with 3:42 left in the third quarter. It’s a three-step drop from the shotgun with seven defenders at the LOS. He anticipates pressure and six defenders rush. He drops, throws off balance knowing he had a slant route as the hot and he executes for a first down. This is a good sign — he understood the situation, knew he didn’t have time to waste and had to get the ball out quickly. He knows where the hole in the defense will be and a receiver runs right into that spot. He beats the pressure with a quick throw. Textbook — and the kind of play he’ll need to make all the time in the NFL.

Most college quarterbacks are not running an offense like this. They operate in one-read systems with the decision making coming from the coaches on the sideline. Typically when the read isn’t open, they take off and improvise. This is Nussmeier basically running a translatable pro system.

With 12:25 left in the fourth quarter he again faced a key 3rd and 9 from inside his own red zone. South Carolina rushed five. He stays in the pocket, accepts pressure will come and throws the best anticipation throw I’ve seen this season for a conversion. The receiver is only just breaking to the sideline and Nussmeier throws to an area his target will run in to, with the defensive back not even facing the play. This is a NFL throw. It’s the kind of thing you have to do every week in the pro’s — where you have far smaller windows and time to throw. This is again superb from Nussmeier:

I’ve studied virtually every game the top draftable quarterbacks have played since the 2021 season. Do you know how many quarterback I see sitting in a pocket, trusting their protection and throwing with the level of anticipation as per the video above? It’s extremely rare.

After this play things became sloppy. There was a fumbled snap that hit him in the chest and a lousy red zone interception that almost cost LSU the game. He didn’t read the dropping defender and threw it straight to him. In this instance, he completely botched the pre-snap read and post-snap diagnosis. He was under no pressure. It’s one of the easiest interceptions you’ll see thanks to a poor piece of judgement from the quarterback. It should’ve been a pick-six but the play was overturned because a defender I’ll praise in a moment stupidly took a cheap shot at Nussmeier on the return. Instead, it gave LSU another chance to get the ball back and win.

To his credit, he capitalised. On a 4th and 3 play at the South Carolina 42-yard line he executesd a perfect hard-count to draw an offside penalty in a way Aaron Rodgers would’ve been proud of. He earns a five-yard penalty and a first down. On the next play he throws perfectly to the left pylon for a massive completion, setting up first and goal. LSU won the game by punching it in shortly after.

So what’s his ceiling? He certainly has translatable skills. I don’t doubt that he’ll come into the NFL and pick things up on a technical level. He’ll be better prepared than most and it’s probably no coincidence given his father is the current Eagles QB coach and has previously spent time coaching Justin Herbert in LA and Dak Prescott in Dallas in the same role.

However, he doesn’t have special traits. He’s decent at everything physically but not an X-factor. He’s not a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert type with the size, cannon arm and athleticism. He’s not a scrambling dynamo or an improv genius. He’s pretty good in a lot of ways but the special traits are missing.

The question becomes — can the technical qualities, understanding and translatable structure/tape compensate at the next level for not being a physical difference maker? We see quarterbacks do it — but can this quarterback do it? That’s what teams need to work out.

I like him though. He is a NFL talent, even if his ceiling is probably mid-level starter complementing a good team, rather than being the kind of ‘saviour of the franchise’ talent. There are players in the NFL, some that are earning a lot of money, with similar strengths and weaknesses.

I do wonder if a lack of starting experience might mean it’s more likely he returns to LSU in 2025. After waiting so long to start, I’m not sure he’ll be rushing to the pro’s. His dad being in the NFL will also provide some perspective on the importance of sticking in college to gain playing experience.

A final note, there’s been a lot of change at PFF recently in terms of the media personalities who front their various podcasts and articles. I don’t know if something similar is happening behind the scenes. While I appreciate Nussmeier had some iffy moments late in the game and missed at least one opportunity to throw downfield vs South Carolina, a 64.5 grade did not feel appropriate for this performance.

This was a big game for LSU, against an unbeaten SEC opponent on the road and a good defense. He made three big time throws per PFF, the same as Cam Ward against the hopelessly overmatched Ball State. Yet Ward received a 90.6 grade for essentially a bunch of extended hand-offs against an opponent Miami hammered 62-0. I watched the game and it just left me wondering if the Ball State players were allergic to the Miami jersey’s. They didn’t seem to want to tackle or cover.

Ward’s completion percentage was still only 67.9% (19/28). It seems he was rewarded for scoring a bunch of simple touchdowns, aided by non-existent coverage/tackling, against an inferior opponent. Nussmeier was penalised for not being flawless in a far trickier environment but ultimately contributing as much as anyone to a great win.

The grading difference between the two cannot be 64.5 and 90.6.

Other notes from LSU vs South Carolina & general draft thoughts

I didn’t understand LSU’s Will Campbell being projected as a top-10 pick before the college season began. I didn’t see that on tape. Nothing so far this season has changed my mind. For me, he might not even be able to stick at tackle. He struggles with speed off the edge and I wouldn’t want him protecting the blind-side. At the moment I’m giving him a day-two grade at guard.

I much preferred his team mate Emery Jones who played with a lot more physicality and toughness at right tackle. Even so, he hasn’t had a great start to the season either. I have him currently marked as a fringe first rounder. What I would say is — a lot of the mock drafts you’re seeing online are full of absolute nonsense. Trust me. There are players out there lazily being projected early without any justification.

Even some of the legit players — Mason Graham and Will Johnson at Michigan for example — are not pulling up any trees. They’ll still go early. Malaki Starks the safety at Georgia is legit. Kelvin Banks, who may also need to kick inside to guard, is legit. Colston Loveland the tight end and Abdul Carter the defensive X-factor also warrant consideration early. Yet the biggest name living most up to the hype currently is probably Colorado’s receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. I’ve never watched a player like him. On Saturday he had 13 catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns and also had an interception and five tackles. He is genuinely unique.

This is a muddled draft with little to be excited about at the top end. This is particularly highlighted by the quarterbacks. Quinn Ewers started well but is injured again. Shedeur Sanders is mixing some great big time throws with embarrassing comments on the field and off it, as question marks about his suitability as a franchise leader grow. Carson Beck looked pretty ‘meh’ against Kentucky. God’s speed to the desperate teams destined to pick in the top-10.

Back to the LSU/South Carolina game, TJ Sanders is an excellent defensive tackle for the Gamecocks and a player I have graded currently as a potential fringe first rounder. He is DT2 on my early, developing draft board behind Mason Graham and ahead of Tyleik Williams. I’m also intrigued to see how Kyle Kennard the edge rusher tests. He’s the player who gave away the dumb penalty on Nussmeier that probably cost South Carolina the game. However, to his credit he faced the media and apologised for the play — receiving praise from his Head Coach for taking responsibility. I think he has day-two potential and already has five sacks, seven TFL’s and two fumbles after three games. Finally, I really like South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori and have him graded in round two at the moment.

The reality with Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe

I saw a tweet from an Athletic draft writer at the weekend, claiming, “You can literally see growth happening here” in terms of Milroe’s development under Kalen DeBoer.

I’m immediately sceptical anytime I see anyone misuse the word ‘literally’. Pedantic as this may be, I didn’t literally see Milroe grow during his trip to Wisconsin. But I thought I’d watch the tape to see if there’s a nugget of truth about his development which wasn’t apparent when I watched Alabama’s opening two games against Western Kentucky and USF.

I’m going to be honest with you. It’s total bollocks to suggest there’s anything different about Milroe after three games. It doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. He’s had three games with DeBoer. Michael Penix Jr had an entire spell at Indiana with DeBoer before coming to Washington. He knew the offense. This could take time. But let’s not manufacture a narrative that he’s developed as a passer because it isn’t true.

The player I’m watching in 2024 is the same player I watched in 2023. Milroe is a terrific athlete playing quarterback. He is not a sophisticated passer. He has a good arm and he’s very capable of getting the ball downfield. He has a terrific build similar to that of a running back. He’s a dynamic runner and can be an X-factor in the ground game. He wasn’t an anticipation thrower delivering passes within a complex structure last season and that remains the case. He still doesn’t methodically work a defense through scheme.

Too often it’s a one read and run approach with Milroe. He doesn’t play with much pocket presence at all. He’ll check his read and set off if it isn’t there, trying to create as a runner. Sometimes he won’t even come off the one read. A case in point against Wisconsin, he eyed a check-down immediately on 3rd and 4 and telegraphed where he was going with the football. He hitched, then threw, and by the time the ball got to the receiver the defender was ready to pounce and make a tackle for no gain. Time to punt.

Real development would be examples of Milroe staying patience in the pocket, making different reads, attacking the middle of the field, throwing a range of passes including layered passes. What we typically see is a somewhat limited route tree with a big emphasis on the deep-ball and his running ability.

I don’t even think he’s really improved his deep-accuracy. DeBoer is excellent at scheming opportunities and he had some great play-calls to open receivers downfield. Milroe executed these throws but even then you see him sitting waiting for the player to uncover with minimal or no pressure, then he throws to an open man. The NFL doesn’t work this way. He will face so much more pressure, he’ll need to make an incredibly varied range of throws. He won’t be able to take off as much as he does.

His accuracy is inconsistent. He doesn’t attack the seam or the middle of the field much. I’d describe him as a fantastic athlete and a brilliant read-option college quarterback. My fear for the NFL is teams will just sit in cover-two and take away the deep ball, forcing him to work the middle while spying his runs. While he’s a big, physical runner with speed — he lacks Lamar Jackson’s dynamic suddenness to threaten and keep opponents honest.

If you combined Garrett Nussmeier and Jalen Milroe you’d have a heck of a player. I’m afraid at the moment Milroe reminds me too much of Malik Willis in terms of a quarterback and unless he can take steps to become more rounded, he’ll likely go in the same range in the draft (at best) as a player with physical qualities who is going to need a lot of development to start in the NFL. If people are hoping for a Jalen Hurts type of player, Hurts was a far more accomplished passer by the time he left Oklahoma. There’s still time for Milroe to take a big step but it’s premature to suggest it’s happened already.

Two other notes from this game. I remain a big fan of Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson and have a second round grade on him. I think he’s better suited to right tackle or guard but he’s extremely tough, he’s adept at turning opponents and finishing, he can brawl as well as anyone and while he doesn’t have elite-level footwork to stick on the blind-side at the next level, he’s not a slouch either. Sadly though, it wasn’t good news for Tyler Van Dyke. He tore an ACL in the game. He turns 24 next March. It’s hard to know what his next move is, having transferred from Miami to Wisconsin this year.

Final notes

— I watched a lot of Missouri last season and was impressed with quarterback Brady Cook, enough to talk about him when he was mostly not discussed anywhere else. I don’t really understand why — he’s better than some other quarterbacks who are being debated a ton.

As with Nussmeier — the big thing that stood out was his efficiency on third down. He had multiple conversions, including one on fourth down. He ended the game with a big third and 7 completion when protecting a six point lead against a dangerous opponent. Cook delivered a good, accurate and not easy throw to the left sideline. Then on a 3rd and 2 he scrambled to ice the game.

He has a reasonable arm, he can move around and scrambles well. I don’t think he has a supremely high ceiling in terms of big-time traits but he’s well sized and looks a bit bigger this season. Cook threw over the middle, showed he can deliver layered passes and this was an accomplished display. He is a big reason why Missouri has been so successful over the last season and a bit.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities to raise his stock playing in the SEC, with games against Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina down the line. It’s tricky to project his range at this point but I do think he’s underrated by the media and some NFL teams will feel he has sufficiently intriguing skills to warrant a closer look.

— Carson Beck had a really odd game against Kentucky. On the one hand, Georgia got the job done as they often do. Yet Beck missed some throws, risked turnovers and just didn’t look all that special for a player often touted as a potential top-10 pick. He did, however, still have some nice throws delivered with velocity and accuracy. His next game is at Alabama, a must-watch (obviously).

— Quinn Ewers left the game against UTSA with an abdominal strain. It’s since been reported he’ll miss the next game and then likely return. Texas appears pretty committed to Ewers, despite the clamour for Arch Manning. There will be pressure on Ewers, though, when he does return — because Manning looked so good in relief on Saturday. Let’s not lose sight though that as exciting as Manning clearly is — Ewers also looked terrific pre-injury. It is a concern though that he’s injured again. The two things we needed to see from Ewers this year was a clean bill of heath and greater consistency. He’s banged up already. Kelvin Banks also got hurt for Texas against UTSA but it doesn’t appear serious.

— Defensive lineman Mykel Williams, hyped for his potential and not his production at Georgia, missed the game against Kentucky. He hasn’t taken the step forward that many anticipated so far. He’s not alone though — Tennessee’s edge rusher James Pearce Jr has zero sacks in three games, had PFF grades of 63.8 against NC State and 60.1 against Chattanooga and his stat line only shows three tackles, one QB hit and two hurries. So much more was expected of him.

— It’s such a shame that the questions about Shedeur Sanders are there. He should be the clear favourite to go first overall based on talent alone. In a high-pressure game for Colorado against rival Colorado State, he completed 36/49 passing for 310 yards and four touchdowns. He had some great throws, while playing behind a terrible O-line. It’s true he looks too often for the big play instead of taking what the defense offers but he frequently pulls off the big play anyway.

That said, he was still throwing downfield late in the game (again) when killing clock was more important. You get the impression that Colorado in its current form exists mostly to showcase Shedeur — including playing his rap song after touchdowns are scored, delaying the band playing the fight song. He hammers the O-line publicly, yaps at Nebraska players at the coin toss. Look at the state of this. You do have to wonder how he’s going to handle someone other than his dad being his coach.

— This is starting to look like a good tight end class. Penn State’s Tyler Warren really caught my eye and I currently have him as TE2 behind Colton Loveland with a good second round grade (pre-testing). Mitchell Evans, Jake Briningstool and Mason Taylor also look like potential day two picks, with others in the running for rounds 3-5.

— There’s some good depth at running back starting to emerge too. Ashton Jeanty at Boise State has a chance to be a first round pick, while Georgia’s Trevor Etienne could also work into the top-45. I enjoyed watching Nicholas Singleton and DJ Giddens but the player I want to highlight today is Utah transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson, now playing for Arkansas. He’s brilliantly sized, has superb contact balance, runs through tackles and has a burst of speed. He’s taken his game to a new level early this season and looks tremendous. He’s definitely one to watch.

— I currently have 100 players graded on my early horizontal board. Some of these grades will adapt and adjust as the season goes on and there are others I want to watch before publishing it. I may do a stream soon, though, specifically to discuss some of the players I think are underrated/overrated and discuss the quarterbacks and potential round one types.

Curtis Allen’s week two watch-notes (vs New England)

September 15, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The Seahawks started off their new era with a win against Denver that was both comforting (a return to a smothering, good-tackling defense) and concerning (the all-too-familiar offensive line issues that threaten to keep them from progressing).

What will be interesting to see with this rookie coaching staff is: how do they react to last week’s game in their planning for the Patriots this week? Do they rely more on establishing their running game in the early going? Can they employ some passing concepts that keep the Patriot pass rush at bay, helping their unstable offensive line?

Or do they carry forward with a plan that trusts that another week of practicing together (particularly the three interior players) will yield at least middling results?

We will see.

The Patriots are an interesting challenge. Coming off a four-win season which led to a parting of ways with legend Bill Belichick, they might seem like a team rebuilding from scratch. The truth is, they – like the Seahawks – have some great pieces to work with as they forge a new path.

Last year, they had one of the league’s top defenses and a fantastic rushing game on offense.

Usually, that adds up to a pretty solid team. So how did they end up picking third overall? Their passing game was dreadful and they were one of the worst teams in the NFL in turnover ratio at -11.

They moved quickly to remedy that, drafting Drake Maye with their top pick and signing Jacoby Brissett – the NFL’s active leader in lowest career interception percentage – and adding Ja’Lynn Polk at Wide Receiver and some very nice building blocks on the offensive line in the form of Caeden Wallace and Layden Robinson in the draft.

The plan has already proven fruitful, as they beat the Bengals last week on the strength of two turnovers, 170 yards rushing, Brissett making no major mistakes and the defense limiting the powerful Bengals offense to just 224 yards.

They will want to replicate that exact model this week against the Seahawks.

What keys do the Seahawks need to be focused on in order to win?

Win the Little Things

When you go on the road, in a different time zone, to play a team you do not come across very often (they last played New England in Week 2 of 2020 – the thriller where they stuffed Cam Newton at the goal line to win it) and are still finding your footing with a new coach, the best thing you can do to help yourself win is to play a clean game.

More so when you are playing the Patriots, a team with a profile we mentioned above. They very likely will not help you beat them, so you are going to have to do it yourself.

The Bengals had sequences just before and after the half with three key errors that ended up being the difference in the game.

The first: Joe Burrow lofts a perfect corner pass to Mike Gesicki and he gets his hands on it but the new Replay Assistant properly challenged it and it showed he could not complete the catch:

On the very next play, Burrow hits Tanner Hudson on a beautiful play call and as he is gliding toward the end zone, he allows the ball to get away from his body for a split second and Kyle Duggar takes advantage with a strip at the one-yard line:

The Patriots recovered, marched down the field and kicked a field goal. But just as important, they burned the last 5 minutes of the half off the clock and did not allow Burrow another shot to get on the scoreboard.

Coming out of the half, the Bengals forced the Patriots to punt. Returner Charlie Jones fumbles and the Patriots recover, flipping the field. The offense burns some more clock before settling for a field goal.

Two Bengal turnovers in back-to-back possessions deprive them of a sure touchdown, and lead to six Patriot points.

The Patriots won the game by six points.

It’s nice that an underdog story like the Patriots’ was a Week One headline but an inch more attention to detail by Cincinnati and we are talking about an unimpressive but very acceptable Bengals win and talk of the Patriots not being dynamic enough on offense dominates the week’s discourse.

One of the reasons the Bengal offense was not very productive? They only had eight possessions (for reference, the Seahawks had 14 last week vs Denver). With so few bites at the apple, it raises the margin for error to uncomfortable levels.

Penalties. Completing crucial catches. Avoiding turnovers.

The Seahawks have several resources for crucial catches but we all know one who stands above the rest. I think that category is in sure hands (pun intended).

What about penalties and turnovers? That leads us to our next point.

Win the Battle of Poor Offensive Lines

As frustrated as we are with the Seahawks’ offensive line performance – particularly in pass protection – in Week One, New England’s was worse.

Both of these teams are banged up and still finding their footing. Which offensive line plays better will likely determine the winner of this game.

Each team tackled their problem in different ways and had success: The Seahawks balanced out their play calling in the second half and employed motion and quicker passing. The Patriots? They ran several two tight end sets, bullying a weak Cincinnati defensive line into submission with pure strength.

On offense, the Seahawks will need some stabilization. The Patriots defensive line – even without star tackle Christian Barmore – looked fantastic, as second-year player Keion White had a monster day with 2.5 sacks, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

The Patriots unlocked the key to success on defense, getting pass rush with just four players at several key points in the game. True, they did not spend the whole day in the Bengal backfield but they struck when it mattered most and allowed the excellent backfield lots of help, with a flood coverage of seven players to deploy.

Brass tacks: The offensive line looks to have another challenging day against the Patriots. Procedural penalties, holding penalties and pressures on Geno Smith that can lead to turnovers must be kept to a minimum.

This will be a play calling challenge of very interesting proportions for Ryan Grubb. If the pass rushers do not cause problems, the backfield (one of the NFL’s best) likely will.

There are a couple of ways they can attack this superb defense.

Firstly, script up some plays to get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. The Patriots love to play man defense and defenders following receivers can open up some pockets of opportunity the Seahawks can attack. All of Seattle’s running backs are versed in catching passes and gaining yards and are ready to be deployed.

Have a look at about 1:54 in this video. The Bengals take advantage of the Patriots’ aggressiveness and set up a nice little dump off to Zach Moss for 12 yards. Notice the Patriots have blitzed to the other side and the Bengals have a ‘hat on a hat’ downfield in blocking.

That is the one and only time the Bengals attacked them in this manner. Last year, the Patriots conceded 6.8 yards per catch and three touchdowns to running backs in the passing game.

The Seahawks can use this as a pressure release valve when they need a few yards in some key spots.

Secondly, if the Patriots are intent on flooding the secondary with bodies, the Seahawks can take advantage by using the inherent awkwardness of too many defenders in too little space.

Have a look at this play and try to focus on the route concept and not the result of Hudson being stripped:

Hudson is in motion pre-snap and settles behind teammate Andre Iosivas in a bunch formation. The Bengals have Gesicki take his man and run straight at another defender, opening up a pocket for Hudson to get into. Bunching pre-snap shields him from his cover man (Kyle Duggar) and he is wide open and has a direct route to the end zone.

I have no trouble believing the Seahawks can scheme up similar plays, sacrificing route runners to open up opportunities. In fact, in training camp scrimmages, the Seahawks loved to line up D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this way on the right side of the formation, with Metcalf drawing focus with his size and speed and Smith-Njigba taking advantage of the open space.

This game has been viewed as a potential slugfest and with good cause. But the Seahawks do not have to concede that their passing game is going to be limited.

With some decent runs and a few of these clever pass concepts proving successful, they can make the defense more pliable and open up the field a little more and allow Geno Smith to do what he does so well – throw deep with accuracy.

Make Jacoby Brissett Beat You

Rhamondre Stevenson had a fine game Sunday, rushing for 120 yards on 25 attempts. He let the Patriots play a balanced game that ate the clock up, covered for a poor pass-protecting offensive line and did not make Brissett play hero-ball.

However, it should be noted that Cincinnati had one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses last year and did little to substantially improve the situation in the offseason. They did draft two defensive tackles in April but neither played in Week One.

Stevenson had a field day, feasting off of poor tackling and bad angles taken by defenders. He had an impressive 3.0 yards after contact, easily the best day in the NFL for running backs with more than 20 carries.

How can they keep him in check? By making sure they are sound in the very middle of their defense.

Have a look at his run chart from Week One:

That is an awful lot of running behind your center and guards.

The Seahawks can combat this by employing Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy in their interior roles. Also, it appears to make sense to give Jonathan Hankins more than the 17 snaps he had last week. Particularly when the Patriots try their two tight end run packages. The snaps will likely come from K’Von Wallace and/or Dre’Mont Jones.

That does not automatically mean the Seahawks will keep him bottled up. But if they continue their sound tackling and ‘everyone swarm to the ball carrier’ energy we saw last week, this could force the Patriot offense to put more of the game in Brissett’s hands. That is a good thing for the Seahawks.

What kind of player is Brissett?

He has carved an interesting career in the NFL, starting for five different NFL teams and serving as a backup for a sixth.

Teams like him because he plays smart. He does not turn the ball over and he can gain some yards with some well-placed scrambles.

So why is he on his fifth team in five years?

He does not win you games.

He is best utilized when he throws about 20-24 times and just keeps the offense on schedule. He rarely makes dynamic plays and that low turnover percentage comes with a price: He has a career 61.3 completion percentage. Throwing away the ball instead of forcing things keeps things on schedule but the defense does not have to adjust for his ability to attack the whole field with his arm.

Look at his passing chart for last week:

Look familiar at all? That is very similar to Bo Nix’s performance last week: Getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible, lots of throws behind or around the line of scrimmage, with true shots downfield unsuccessful. Also, running for his life when his offensive line was overwhelmed.

If the Seahawks can keep a lid on the running game – particularly in key spots, like third-and-6 or so – the pendulum of success swings heavily in their direction.

At that point, using coverages to take away easy targets (or swarming to keep the YAC as low as possible) will prove a very successful way to attack this offense.

Why?

When Brissett gets the ball out of his hands in under 2.5 seconds, his career completion percentage is 68.7 – an incredible number.

Over 2.5 seconds? When he has to process and get to his second or third read or throw off-balance? It plummets to 55.9%.

As for clutch moments, he is one of the worst in the NFL. He has a 46.3% completion rate in the red zone (where the windows are much, much tighter) and on third downs his rate is 57.4%.

We all know the reason the Patriots employ Brissett. He is a steady placeholder quarterback that will not win you games but also will not lose you games. Drake Maye needs development and keeping him from having to play behind the current offensive line is more than wise – it’s an investment that is as sound as any in the NFL at this point.

Keep the Patriots from their plan of attack: Running the ball liberally and having Brissett distribute safe but short passes to the playmakers.

Disrupt it. Make them change it and go to a less-desirable option. It is very doable with this new defense that Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks have cooked up.

A quick note from Rob — tonight’s post-game live stream will take place later than usual. It will begin approximately 30 minutes after the Bengals vs Chiefs game has finished.

The NFL is overpaying quarterbacks, so will someone try a different approach?

September 12, 2024 /

Maybe it’s just a week one thing? It wouldn’t be the first time the opening slate of games provided an outlier across the NFL.

I found this interesting though:

It’s not just that 2024 is so low on this list. It’s right next to 2023. For the last two seasons, offensive football has been pretty poor in week one.

There could be a good reason for this. It feels like fewer teams than ever play their starters in pre-season. This is possibly giving defenses an advantage where offensive execution and detail can, I suppose, be outdone by a lot of disciplined running and hitting.

The NFL is a constantly evolving league though. I was speaking to someone within the NFL earlier this year who reckoned the Shanahan-inspired offenses would only last so long and that we might see a return to a more ‘old-fashioned’ brand of football. I didn’t ask for details but after week one, you can see why they might have a point.

Offensive lines are bad across the league. Even the Titans, who spent the 7th pick in this year’s draft and the 11th pick last year on their left tackle and left guard, struggled to do much of anything up front. They also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry to a four-year contract and employed one of the top O-line coaches in the league in Bill Callahan.

With such a league-wide O-line problem, we saw teams look for solutions last weekend. Nothing was more striking than what we saw in Seattle. They turned to the running game for relief after a dismal first half of pass-pro. I’d suggest it might be a tactic others increasingly turn to. If you can’t pass protect properly, get your guys to come off the ball and run block. Quite a few teams can’t protect properly.

From 2011 — Drew Brees’ most productive season in the NFL — to Patrick Mahomes’ first year as a starter in 2018 where he scored 50 touchdowns — the league average for the highest number of scores by a QB was 43. That has since dropped to 40.8 from 2019 to 2023. That average will dip below 40 if the leading quarterback this season fails to match Dak Prescott’s 36 passing touchdowns from 2023. It’s not that long ago that it felt like we might start to see a player top 50 touchdowns annually.

We’ll need to wait and see if there’s any significant shift developing here in terms of defensive excellence combined with a run-game renaissance but it won’t be the worst thing for the Seahawks given the identity and philosophy of their new coaching staff.

The thing I’m curious about though is how a reduction in league-wide quarterback production is coinciding with a massive increase in quarterback salary. We all know it’s happening because league revenue is increasing and so is the cap. We’re also seeing defensive linemen, offensive tackles and in particular wide receivers getting huge extensions too.

Yet for the most part, we aren’t seeing non-elite players get elite contracts — apart from at quarterback.

Jeremy Fowler noted this on ESPN recently:

“Life in the middle is better than life without a quarterback,” one NFL head coach said. “It’s just so hard to win without a capable passer that teams are willing to overpay for a known commodity.” That sentiment will continue to drive the market, even if teams are fatigued by doling out top-of-market deals to quarterbacks who aren’t top five at their position. This comes against the backdrop of Week 1 quarterback play that was mostly mediocre. Seventeen of 32 starting QBs threw for fewer than 200 yards, while six were sacked at least four times.”

Jordan Love ($55m a year), Trevor Lawrence ($55m), Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1m) and Jared Goff ($53m) are not among the NFL’s QB elite. They are among the highest paid players in the league though, along with Joe Burrow ($55m), simply because of the position they play. Dak Prescott recently set the record with a new $60m a year deal.

I appreciate there are ways and means of working around these contracts to prevent teams evaporating their cap space every year. It’s still a huge commitment to make just to avoid, as the unnamed NFL coach said above, ending up without a ‘known commodity’.

I’d argue some of these players being known commodities is exactly why they shouldn’t be given huge contracts.

What did we know about Kirk Cousins this year? We knew he was a 36-year-old free agent quarterback coming off a serious injury, one of the worst kinds of injures for recovery (achilles). He’s never had difference making traits or any significant success in his career. Cousins is the type of player who provides a base level of performance that prevents a team from being awful — but you can just as easily argue he’ll never take you to greatness either.

He was given $45m a year in Atlanta.

Did anyone watch Daniel Jones’ first four years in the NFL and see anything other than mediocre at best? The Giants didn’t even take up his fifth-year option. After one season where Jones basically played a supportive role in a playoff year, he was given $40m annually.

Derek Carr’s been around for a long time without really achieving much. He has never been able to elevate his performance beyond ‘not bad’. The Saints chucked $37.5m a year at him in what now feels quite a cheap contract compared to some of the other deals. Had he been a free agent a year or two later, the reality is Carr likely would’ve earned as much as Cousins.

Everyone gets more. Tua feels completely replaceable within a scheme that has succeeded with multiple different players, not to mention they have two amazing receivers to throw to and a dynamite running game. The Dolphins gave him $53m a year. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t remotely lived up to expectation so far but the Jaguars will give him a top salary of $55m to see if another year or two will help.

In the meantime, something really frustrating happens. There’s very little in the way of asking whether any of this is warranted or ‘right’. Instead, we just get people readjusting what constitutes market value, before talking up the next player to get ‘what they deserve’. As other players get paid too much, the next one waits his turn.

Geno Smith’s $38.5m cap hit for 2025 is often described as quite cheap by some fans and media. It’s only cheap, though, compared to the inflated salaries others are getting. It doesn’t mean you need to do the same thing.

I’d recommend reading Mike Sando’s latest article from the Athletic on the subject. It’s pretty much the first time I’ve seen any piece touch on something we’ve been discussing for a while.

Why aren’t teams prepared to play hardball and eventually move on?

Here’s a quote from one anonymous source per Sando:

“Most of the coaches and GMs haven’t won enough to be able to tell their owners, ‘You know what? Let’s reset.”

This is probably what it comes down to. It’s hard enough to manage an owner when you reveal you’re taking a quarterback in round one. Sometimes, the owner might be telling you to make the pick. Either way, it could be a challenge to then walk into the same office four years later and say you want to cut bait.

Your job could be in jeopardy if you’re admitting you made a mistake on a QB. In some cases, it might be easier to make a case that the player is ‘close’ to being great, you actually made the right decision and the owner should pay your hand-selected player to enable him to reach his destiny (aka don’t fire me yet).

Or, if that quarterback has produced some level of production (eg Tua), the owner might want to know why you want to risk turning his marketable, winning team back into a potential clown-show with a no-name quarterback.

This is where I think the Seahawks might be able to find an edge. John Schneider seems to have enough respect and control in Seattle to do what he wants. It certainly appears he came out on top when the time came to make a call on Russell Wilson’s future and Pete Carroll’s.

I suspect whatever he decides to do will be respected. Thus, he’ll be left alone to make any big decision on a quarterback.

I don’t expect he’ll be under any pressure to deliver a huge extension to Geno Smith next off-season unless it’s earned. So while Smith might be telling the CBS sideline reporter at the Denver game that he’s motivated by Seattle’s decision not to award him a new contract this summer (why did he expect one?) — the Seahawks are not likely to feel any pressure to do anything they don’t feel comfortable doing. Unlike other teams, I’m not convinced they’ll feel obliged to act, especially with Smith under contract for 2025. I don’t think they’ll be rushing to do something unless they’re absolutely sure — unlike some other teams who have seemingly rolled dices with fingers and toes crossed.

Equally, assuming Schneider has years at the helm still to come, he’ll have an opportunity to draft a quarterback in the future and make a decision in due course on whether to pay them big money or not.

Eventually someone is going to do things differently. A team always does. While the rest of the league throws money at non-elite quarterbacks, will a team be brave enough to say ‘no’? To seek value at the position rather than overpay in order to have a ‘known commodity’? To avoid making a huge financial decision based around the feeling that things ‘could be worse’?

Geno Smith is a good example of a reclamation project that has delivered a bit of success to Seattle. Baker Mayfield is another example in Tampa Bay.

It won’t be a surprise if Kevin O’Connell gets a tune out of Sam Darnold this year (they had a good start in week one). Jacoby Brissett seems to bounce around a bit but never really seems to play that badly when he gets a chance.

I’m not sure there’s a significant difference between some of these ‘prove it’ types and some of the players getting big money. There are obvious ‘flops’ too — Mitch Trubisky has not taken his second chance, Jameis Winston hasn’t been able to stick anywhere as a starter and Carson Wentz’s career fell of a cliff quickly. It shows there’s risk involved in moving on — but either way, if you’re not winning a Super Bowl, are you really any worse off?

I look at it this way. Seek greatness via the draft, while acknowledging it can take a long time to find it. Failing that, look for value and production. Do not pay a huge salary to someone undeserving, just because they are a quarterback. Even if that means making a difficult decision.

A new reclamation project will be available soon for someone. Bryce Young, once considered the unanimous #1 overall pick (although some of us preferred CJ Stroud) and highly rated among many NFL teams, will probably soon be looking for a fresh start. He looks terrible at the moment but someone, somewhere will give him a chance. There will be others in the same boat.

The draft is a hugely difficult projection game but one that comes with great financial benefit if you get the right player.

Experience can matter and as we’re seeing, players who’ve been around a long time can actually benefit from getting a new opportunity later in their careers. They can be a lot cheaper, too.

Being prepared to look for value at quarterback might be a strong tactic in the future. It could free up extra money to invest in offensive linemen for example, or other free agents. If defensive football has a greater impact on the league in the coming seasons — combining a great defense with a functioning offense might give you half a chance (as it did for Denver in 2015 and to a lesser extent, Seattle in 2013).

Market value is being set by teams spending too much money on undeserving quarterbacks. You can either be sucked in by that and join the club, or you can seek a different path that might actually give you a financial and footballing edge. I know which approach I hope the Seahawks choose.

Scouting notes week two: Quinn Ewers continues to impress

September 11, 2024 /

Quinn Ewers is building momentum

I’ve long thought that teams would be more interested in Quinn Ewers’ natural talent than the internet was. In an age where big stats and flashy one-off plays clipped for social media are king, the NFL still requires basic fundamentals such as footwork, throwing with anticipation, arm strength and translatable game-evidence to project success.

These skills don’t guarantee anything at the next level but they’re basic aspects of scouting that are sometimes overlooked online, which is often why we see players over-projected.

Ewers’ display on the road against Alabama last year would’ve stuck in the minds of many in the NFL. It was a terrific showcase of the clear gifts he has a quarterback, mixed in with a top-level performance in a hostile environment against a high-level opponent, where his performance significantly contributed to the win — all while showing off NFL caliber throws.

His latest win against Michigan isn’t quite as comparable because they’ve turned into a shoddy mess after losing a bunch of talent (personnel and coaching) to the NFL. Yet it was another tick in a box for Ewers. Texas blew Michigan’s doors off, they didn’t just win. Ewers, with many projectable throws in the game, was integral to everything. He excelled against a Wink Martindale defense carrying two potential top-10 picks.

Here are the key notes — he again showed terrific poise in the pocket, a good arm, anticipation and accuracy and he was in total command of the offense.

Let’s just take a moment to reflect on the last few months for Ewers. Many Texas fans wanted him out of the way so Arch Manning could take over. Draft Twitter loved to diminish his talent and NFL potential, choosing to elevate others instead. It has felt like a lot of people have been waiting for him to fail.

The fact he is taking this in his stride so brilliantly and looks better than ever to start this season is testament to his character.

He started the Michigan game with a 40-yard touch pass thrown in-between two defenders, setting the tone. He was denied a touchdown on the opening drive due to a hold — but what he did, running to the right sideline and throwing across his body for a 30-yard score, would’ve had Twitter shouting ‘first overall pick’ a year ago if it was Drake Maye.

He came straight back on the next drive and got his touchdown — leading a great drive that ended with brilliant pocket manipulation to move away from pressure, step-up and then throw perfectly on the move into the end zone for a highly skilful score that he made look easy:

With 6:42 left in the first half he again stepped up through traffic in a crowded pocket, side-stepped two defenders into an area of space and then flicked his wrist, delivering a bullet 25-yards downfield between three defenders.

Look at the anticipation on the throw (see screen grab). You can see when he releases the football the receiver is actually positioned and blocked off by the defender to the right of the shaded circle. You can’t even see the receiver in the screen-grab below. He throws to the area (circled) he anticipates his receiver will run into and he does this while on the move, avoiding pressure to create space in the pocket. There is no reduction in arm strength or accuracy when he throws on the run:

This is a NFL play. There simply aren’t many quarterbacks in college who can evade pressure with this level of ease, then while on the move just flick their wrist to generate power on the football with a super-quick release and deliver a highly accurate, layered pass. By the way, this throw happened on 3rd and 10. That’s a money down. This is what you look for.

His second touchdown was on the run, moving to his left hand side and he’s asked to throw across his body to a covered receiver at the left pylon. As a play-call I am not a fan of this play. It demands a lot from a quarterback with a high risk of a turnover if the execution is off. It’s very difficult to run to your left as a right handed QB and throw to such a small strike zone with velocity and accuracy. He nailed it:

There was a throw with 11:34 left in the third quarter where he just casually rolls back off play-action and throws with little balance and no set-feet with more velocity and accuracy than most players manage with their feet planted in a clean pocket. He makes a big completion to the sideline and it looked easy.

Ewers was poised in the pocket throughout, at one point staring down pressure, anticipating a hit and still delivering a perfect dime over the middle on 2nd and 15 for a first down. Joe Klatt on commentary called the pass ‘beautiful’ and he’s bloody right. I’ve come to think Ewers almost makes things look too easy sometimes because of his natural ability and a lot of what he does well is taken for granted.

Ideally would he be a bit bigger? Yes. Does he have to show he can stay consistent and healthy this year? Absolutely. I do believe though that NFL evaluators will rate him very highly. Ewers is a legit player and is very much in the QB1 running and therefore in the running to be the top pick, should he maintain this level of performance. I suspect he’ll get a lot more attention after this game and really, it’s overdue compared to some of the other quarterbacks getting pumped-up online.

Riley Leonard is what he is

I was amazed by just how bad Notre Dame were against Northern Illinois. I started watching live in the second half after returning from a long working trip. They couldn’t move the ball. They had absolutely no means of driving on NIU. Meanwhile, their far less established opponents were beating them up in the trenches when they had possession and putting consistent drives together.

NIU would move across half-way only to stall just outside of field goal range and then fail on a fourth down attempt. In the end, they did just enough to get into range for the winning kick. Make no mistake though — it was their O-line driving people off the ball. It was their defense timing pressure and blitzes to perfection. It was their quarterback making clutch plays on key downs. They thoroughly deserved to win.

NIU had two sacks and four TFL’s in the game, plus two picks. Notre Dame managed zero sacks and three TFL’s with no turnovers. Northen Illinois had a yardage advantage of 388 vs 286 and over nine more minutes of possession.

This brings me on to Riley Leonard. It just isn’t happening. The athletic potential has always been there but his total inability in this game to get even one drive going when it mattered said it all. He has no composure in the pocket, you can’t rely on his arm to get the job done and he simply isn’t a good enough passer to start in the NFL. He is a big athlete playing quarterback.

Look at his lousy interception late on — basically a big embarrassing arm punt into coverage when trying to protect or add to a small lead. Notre Dame are one-point up and he does that. A turnover, a return for great field position, a drive, a successful kick and a win for NIU.

Leonard is showing that despite his move to Notre Dame, he’s little more than a day three project at best. He finished 20/32 for 163 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Shedeur Sanders shows the other side to his evaluation

Last week I thought Sanders was excellent as Colorado struggled to beat North Dakota State. I praised his clear natural talent, both in terms of physicality and accuracy. He has the ability to be the top pick in 2025. Saturday reminds you why that might not happen.

Granted, he had no chance against Nebraska. His offensive line, just as it was last year, is abject. However, look at what we saw on Sunday. There’s bad offensive line play all across the NFL. The chances are he’ll be drafted to play on a team where the O-line is sub-par.

You won’t be able to say this after a game at the next level:

Sanders has managed to call out both his O-line and D-line here. And look, he has a point. But you don’t say this in public. You see every year, quarterbacks bending over backwards in the NFL to promote and thank their O-line teammates. Some buy them luxury gifts or take them out to dinner. There’s almost an unwritten rule that in the NFL, you have to look after the guys employed to look after you.

NFL evaluators will have noted this clip. If a team drafting in the top-15 takes him as part of an incomplete roster-build, is he going to start blaming the offensive line if things go badly? Leadership is about more than talent and execution. At the moment, Sanders very much feels like a player who has been the ‘bosses son’ throughout his college career.

Some teams will care about this and the rather weird social media adventure over the summer more than others. Some will have reservations about ‘Coach Prime’ and his likely noisy influence if they draft Shedeur. Other teams will just go all-in on the talent.

I have a theory that stuff like this is off-putting enough for Sanders to probably last deeper into round one than his talent ever should allow, creating a repeat of the Lamar Jackson situation. If you remember the 2018 draft, Lamar made his mother his agent with disastrous consequences. Teams found it hard to arrange meetings with him. He refused to do certain testing/workouts. A player with immense, obvious talent suddenly lasted to the final pick in round one.

Sanders has everything you need to be a good NFL quarterback in terms of skill. But if he wants to max-out his draft potential, he can’t be slamming his O-line publicly. Do that behind closed doors, with your dad, in his office. Everyone else is already noting how bad the O-line is, you don’t need to get involved.

In terms of what he showed against Nebraska, he threw a terrible interception by hitching and throwing way too late from inside his own endzone. He telegraphed the route and made it easy for the cornerback to undercut the route. As bad as his pass-pro was, he too often looked for the big play instead of just getting the ball out. He’s looking for massive chunk plays and needs to do a better job of taking what’s there.

Even so, he again showed clear physical potential and he has everything necessary to be an extremely high pick. Teams will have reservations though.

Other notes

— There was hope that Jalen Milroe would take a big step forward working with Kalen DeBoer but so far we aren’t seeing it. He deserves time working for a new coach but against USF his accuracy still was a concern when his feet aren’t set. He still looks like an athlete playing quarterback. He faced off against Byrum Brown who some have also talked up at QB. I thought Brown did a good job as a runner but showed little in the way of poise and accuracy as a passer.

— Garrett Nussmeier only had to contend with the Nicholls Colonels on Saturday but I thought he played very well again. He’s accurate, poised, throws with nice touch, he can move around, he throws well on the run and just does a lot of things at a good level. I’m not sure if he has major upside but he does a lot of things with a natural flair and he looked like a NFL player in his two starts so far.

— A few people have asked me to do more on the non-QB positions and I promise I will. Typically I like to get a good feel for the QB’s and then move on to other positions. I will say though, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has a chance to go in round one. He runs through tackles but shows good contact balance, he finishes runs, he can be an asset in the passing game, he can break off big runs and out-run defensive backs, he accelerates well to maximise openings and he just looks tremendous. He broke nine tackles against Oregon and has forced 22 missed tackles in two weeks. Jeanty is a stud.

— One of my favourite players eligible for 2025 is Alabama offensive line Tyler Booker. He plays with tremendous physicality, he’s a legit grown-man leader with elite-level maturity and on Saturday he was asked to shift from left guard to left tackle due to an injury to a teammate. The position-switch didn’t change his playing style:

Here’s Kalen DeBoer talking about Booker after the USF win:

« Older posts Newer posts »

© 2025 Seahawks Draft Blog

Theme by Anders Noren — Up ↑