Month: October 2024 (Page 4 of 4)

Curtis Allen’s First Quarter 2024 Seahawks Report Card

October 3, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Record:  3-1

Thoughts

This team has shown growth, heart, grit and determination under new Head Coach Mike Macdonald.  Even though some old Seahawks ghosts still linger (a porous O-line and bad tackling in the run game) there has been significant development in both the offensive and defensive structures, allowing talented players to shine.  Winning the three games they should win this quarter will no doubt pay dividends when they face tougher opponents down the stretch.

MVP

1. ) Geno Smith

The passing game in this new offense has been a sight to see under Smith so far.  He’s getting the ball out quickly without sacrificing longer downfield throws.

The traditional counting stats are extremely good:  1,182 yards on a sparkling 72.3% completion percentage.  His 57 Passing First Downs lead the NFL.  Last year at this time, he had 45.  Who are the beneficiaries of the growth?  Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have 13 more first downs this season than last year.

In other words, Smith is getting the ball to his playmakers more.

He has accomplished this despite shaky line play.  Smith is facing a 25.1% Pressure Rate which is down from 30.5% at this time last season.

What is the difference in the rate drop?  Smith himself.  He has run sixteen times and picked up eight first downs with his feet.  Last season?  Eight runs for zero first downs.  If he decides to stay in the pocket instead of running in half of those attempts, his pressure rate almost certainly rises to exactly last year’s rate.

Put another way, he is helping himself with the pass rush.

There are only three questions with Smith at this point:  Can he stay healthy behind that line?  Can he stay consistently excellent?  And the biggest of all, can he win a game in the playoffs?

2.) Boye Mafe

2023 saw him break out in a fine way and establish himself as a bright young star on the Seahawks’ defense.  This year, he has taken another big step forward onto the NFL stage and is making his presence felt on a consistent basis in games.

After three games he was on pace to nearly double his sack and pressure totals from last year, double his QB knock own and tackle for loss numbers and triple his QB hurries.

His 2024 numbers are up there among league superstars such as Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and Aidan Hutchinson.  PFF also has him graded at 75.6 overall, which is showing he is not a one-trick pony.

Mike Macdonald has constantly talked about Mafe becoming a true three-down player.  He is well on his way.

The question for Mafe will be can he be consistent in his presence?  After his Seahawks-record sack per game pace last year was snapped, he went the next five games without a sack and only recorded four pressures in that span.

3.) Derick Hall

There is no need to compare Hall’s numbers this year to last year’s.  He has already beaten them all.  Not quarter to quarter.  For the whole season.  He has four sacks in four games, a forced fumble, he’s just outside the top-10 in the NFL in pressures and sports a 76.2 PFF grade.

Hall has proven to be a near-perfect bookend complement to Mafe.  The Seahawks now have that rare gem of dual threats that can provide pressure without blitzing at a crazy rate.

His progress was evident in Training Camp this year but he has applied every bit of that energy and skill when the games count.

We know that Hall is a powerful beast of an Edge.  But he has shown he has more to his game, with some speed and bend, particularly in his two-sack game against the Dolphins in Week Three.

Slipping around a Tight End and then blowing by a Left Guard who has pulled and has five steps to pick up speed is impressive indeed, as is the closing speed from the hash to wallop the Quarterback and end the half with authority.

This is the beginning of something beautiful.  The Seahawks have team control of Hall for 2025 and 2026.

Honorable Mentions: Riq Woolen, Leonard Williams

Rookie Of the Quarter

1.) Byron Murphy

It is no contest. Murphy has been the most impactful rookie by quite a margin.

Teams have shown Murphy one of the ultimate signs of respect immediately.  And by immediately, I mean in the preseason — double-teaming him with regularity.  This is on a team with Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Hankins, not to mention the pass rushers outside.

And for good reason:

It would appear the hamstring injury he suffered is not serious and the Seahawks are just taking precautions with their top pick. Rightly so.  His future in this league is huge.

2.) Tyrice Knight

Knight is a perfect example of Mike Macdonald’s vision and coaching style.  He has demonstrated his skills quickly, fit into the defense and produced, and yet Macdonald openly knows and says that he has potential to be much, much better when he develops his game instincts.  He is doing that with live reps in regular season games.

With Jerome Baker having a nagging hamstring injury, Macdonald turned to Knight almost immediately in training camp as his fill-in, preferring Knight over more experienced Linebackers like John Rhattigan and Drake Thomas.

In the first four games of the season, Knight has a TFL and 22 regular tackles in two starts and has been a solid if unspectacular player for them with 59.9 PFF grade.

3.) AJ Barner

The Tight End has gone from not showing much on the practice field in camp to being a very nice emerging piece of the offense in both the run and pass game.

His first two games were primarily helping on blocking and special teams.

But the next two were impactful in the air as well.  Five catches for four first downs to go with that blocking – exactly what you want of your second Tight End.  Not to mention a very nice touchdown catch where he navigates his way through traffic to give his quarterback an easy target:

17 catches, 172 yards and a touchdown to go with solid blocking and special teams play.

Barner’s numbers?  No.  Will Dissly’s 2023 numbers in Seattle.  That is the bar to clear.

Barner is on his way already with 5 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown.  Dissly’s cap hit last year was $9.2 million.  Barner’s this year is $984k.

Successes

1.) Winning With a Whole New Coaching Staff

Forget the soft first quarter schedule for a moment.  This is the NFL and games won are hard-fought and deserved.

Just consider:  The Seahawks hired a first-time Head Coach and he brought in first-time Coordinators in all three phases of the team.  The coach picked coordinators he had not extensively worked with previously. They are 3-1. 

What is more, this coaching staff has the team playing hard, tough, confident football.  Adversity has come and been met.

Both the Offense and Defense have demonstrated clear progress from the previous regime and you can see their aims and goals coming into focus.

You can also see there are things that need improvement but the green shoots of progress are too plentiful to ignore.

2.) Getting Pressure Without Constant Blitzing

Currently, the Seahawks lead the NFL in Pressure Rate with a fantastic 35.9% number.

They are accomplishing that despite being right in the middle of the pack on Blitzing Rate, at fifteenth place with 23.9% of plays blitzed.

The beauty of it is it is a team effort.  Several players are producing pressure.

Derick Hall, Boye Mafe and Leonard Williams have enough pressures to place them in the top 20 defenders.  No other team has three of the top 20 players  and only Minnesota and Dallas have two in that group.

Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed are also providing pressure.  That makes blitzers like Devon Witherspoon and Tyrell Dodson all that more effective when their number is called.

Uchenna Nwosu has not even entered the picture yet.

Also, there is still untapped potential in this group.  Macdonald has yet to really go all mad scientist with his defensive lineup scheming.  They are so talented and have such a firm grip on their basic assignments, they can roll out standard packages and still influence the opposing offense with regularity.

3.) The Explosive Passing Game

More than once this quarter, the Seahawks’ running game has been bottled up and limited.  Winning would depend on attacking through the air and required a high degree of efficiency.

The team has answered that call and then some.

The Seahawks are leading the NFL in passing yards, Metcalf and Smith-Njigba are in line for career-highs in targets and Lockett is not far behind them.

Are they running the same routes repeatedly?  No.  Have a look at JSN’s route tree in Week Two vs New England:

The complexity this offense is showing defenses is hard to untangle and work out as the season progresses.  Even if teams can begin to solve the scheme, their defenders still must defeat three Wide Receivers with skill profiles that not many teams have.

Challenges

1.) Game to Game Consistency

Here we come now to the downside of a major coaching change.  This quarter, the team swung wildly between brilliance and futility in seemingly a different area in each game:

— Week One vs Denver: the Offensive Line was a horrid mess.  Geno Smith was sacked on the first play of the season and on the second threw an interception under pressure.  They conceded two safeties in the first half.  They were directly responsible for seven Broncos points.

— Week Two at New England: it is the run game’s turn to be dreadful.  They conceded 5.14 yards per carry and eight runs of seven yards or more on defense against a team that telegraphed their intention to run.  On offense, 46 yards on 19 attempts forced Geno Smith to ‘fine I’ll do it myself’ and win the game with a passing tour de force.

— Week Three vs Miami:  Penalties.  A missed field goal.  The offense stagnated in the second and third quarters.

— Week Four at Detroit:  Explosive Runs conceded.  Explosive Passes conceded.  The defense was outgunned, outworked and dare I say out-schemed.

Granted, the Seahawks won three of those games.  Yet no one can say this team is a finished product. In every single interview Mike Macdonald has given he has acknowledged that.  He knows the team still has a long way to go.

Yes, their initial success has been very commendable.  But the team cannot afford these types of stretches when the schedule gets harder.  They must tighten things up considerably to keep succeeding.

2.) The Offensive Line

Starting Right Tackle Abe Lucas has yet to play and his NFL future is unknown.  The Seahawks wisely brought in a competent backup in George Fant, who immediately got hurt.  Stone Forsythe has not played well and has needed blocking help from the Tight Ends and Running Backs.

Center Connor Williams was a late addition and needed time to get into football shape and acclimate to the team.

Left Guard Laken Tomlinson has been a turnstile in pass protection.

Right Guard Anthony Bradford has been constantly flagged and has struggled to find his footing.  Third round Guard Christian Haynes has been the opposite of plug-and-play, failing to even get reps with the top line in training camp and being boom-or-bust when playing in games.

The Detroit game showed encouraging improvement.  Geno Smith dropped back 63(!) times and was only sacked three times.  The only lineman penalized was Charles Cross on an ineligible downfield and the Lions had an offset penalty, so it didn’t count.

That improvement must continue though.  Geno Smith being under that much pressure is playing with fire.  He took a couple of shots in that game that looked like they could have been bad.

3.) Special Teams

Michael Dickson is currently #10 in the NFL with a fantastic 49.3 yards per punt average – well ahead of his career 48.0 average.

The Punt Coverage team is not holding up their end of the deal unfortunately.  Dickson’s net average? 38.6 yards per punt, good for 29th in the NFL.  That is nearly 10% lower than his career average.

Only three teams in the NFL have a worse disparity between their punter’s Yards Per Punt and Net Yards per Punt.

They also are tied for the league lead in Touchbacks.

Is the Kickoff Coverage team any better?

No.

They are conceding 26.57 yards per return on seven returns.  Only one team in the NFL is conceding more yards on as many returns.

Dee Williams muffed a punt that gave the Broncos the ball at the Seahawks’ nine-yard line and led to a Field Goal.

Jason Myers missed a makeable 53-yard Field Goal try against the Dolphins and a 62-yard try against the Lions.  The 62-yard miss is hard to hold against Myers but the accuracy wasn’t the problem.  It is that he could not get the ball out of the end zone in a domed game in September.

Coach Harbaugh has his work cut out for him.  This unit needs to rapidly improve as soon as possible.

Dishonorable Mention:  Situational Playcalling on Offense

Some awareness needs to be added to the game plan.

Calling developing passing plays while at your own two-yard line is not advisable.  Particularly when your Offensive Line is playing so poorly.

Consecutive two-point try calls in the Detroit game that were lower-percentage plays.  Both failed – although admittedly it appears both the NFL and Mike Macdonald erred in not challenging the first one – and the Seahawks lost momentum.

Ryan Grubb could use a brief consult from Leslie Frazier.

Second Quarter Games

Home vs NY Giants

Home vs SF TNF (throwbacks!)

Road @ Atlanta

Home vs Buffalo

Home vs LA Rams

Goals for Second Quarter

1.) Beat San Francisco

This is job #1.  As much as we snicker when we see the Niners having injury and player contract issues, they are still the champs until someone knocks them off.  Every single season they go through a bout of ineffectiveness.  They almost always rebound and become the team that can steamroll anyone.

It could be argued that Mike Macdonald was hired not just to bring overall franchise success to the Seahawks but to ‘solve’ the offensive wizardry of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.  The Seahawks were 0-4 against those two teams last year and the miserable performances in those matchups were a big catalyst in regime change.

Splitting the season series is a reasonable goal.  The home game is the best place to start.

2.) Flip the Turnover Differential

A team winning three of four games with a -3 differential is not sustainable.

Interception problems should even out with an improved Offensive Line and some play calling acumen (and with more running – more on that below).

The Seahawk defenders have forced five fumbles but only recovered one.  If they keep working as they are, that pendulum of recovery should swing back their way.

The pass rush should provide more chances — between strip sacks (it is only a matter of time until the team is regularly getting them) and forced bad throws which lead to interceptions.

They have two interceptions as a team, both from unwise Bo Nix throws in his NFL debut.

Riq Woolen is doing his duty.  Teams have only targeted him eleven times in four games (completing three for a gaudy 27.3% completion rate allowed) and he showed he has not lot lost any speed or vision with his ‘teleporting’ across the field for his interception this season:

Devon Witherspoon needs to step up here as well.  He can cause havoc as a blitzer, jar the ball loose with a bone-crunching hit or step in front of errant passes.  He appears to still be adjusting to the new defense.  When he does, he will be a force to reckon with and a weapon that Macdonald can deploy all over the field.

3.) Even out the Offensive Balance

The Seahawks are the third-most pass-happy team in the NFL after four games with a 64.4/35.6 split.  For everyone’s sake, that needs some course correcting to favor the running game a bit more.

As fun as it is to see Geno Smith flinging it all over the field, there are too many factors that strongly argue for more balance.

The Offensive Line gelling together as an effective unit may be hastened by establishing the run as a greater part of their identity.

The Defense could use more opportunities to rest and be able to lean on opposing offenses later in the game.

And perhaps most importantly, Geno Smith’s health cannot be overstated as a team need.  He missed time with knee and hip injuries in the pre-season and has taken more than a couple of cringe-worthy hits in the first quarter.  As much as we would like to credit him forward for six years of sitting on the bench, he is not getting younger and injuries will be harder to effectively recover from in time to regain form.

In four games, they have run the ball 33 times in the first half, compared to passing 73 times.  There is where balance needs to be restored.  It does not have to be 50/50 or even favoring runs but getting Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet warmed up and ready to rumble over defenders as soon as possible will only benefit the team.

Two players who could help the Seahawks before the trade deadline

October 2, 2024 /

The Seahawks are one of the more aggressive teams when it comes to the trade deadline. A year ago they used a second round pick on Leonard Williams. In the past they’ve added the likes of Duane Brown, Carlos Dunlap and Quandre Diggs.

The deadline is a month away on November 4th.

So is there anyone they could target?

Firstly, they’re not going to be buyers in the Davante Adams market. The passing offense is coming along nicely after a productive outing in Detroit and they already have major talent at the position. There’d be little reason to rent Adams for a couple of years, creating another mouth to feed.

Neither do I think it’s likely they’ll be able to make a big tilt for an offensive lineman. The NFL has an O-line problem with so many teams struggling up front. Any player worth having isn’t going to be dealt, unless they force a move like Brown did in 2017. That was a rare circumstance.

The only name I’ve seen on the O-line that might be available is Walker Little in Jacksonville. I liked him at Stanford but he’s bounced around a few positions and nothing has stuck. Is he even an upgrade at this point?

There are a couple of players though that I think might be worth having a look at.

Firstly, it’s important to look at teams who might be willing sellers. A legit contender isn’t going to give you a player to help you out. It needs to be a team already eyeing the future, someone who wants an extra pick or two to help in the draft next year.

Which teams are getting close to seller status?

The first name I’ll bring up is an old favourite — Calais Campbell.

He’s still going strong at 38. The ageless wonder has a couple of sacks for Miami and an 80.4 PFF grade — good for sixth among all interior defensive linemen.

The Dolphins’ season has collapsed. There’s a major unknown about the future of Tua Tagovailoa due to his latest concussion. They’re 1-3 and just lost Jaelen Phillips for the season, adding to their woes.

There’s virtually no chance Miami turns things around unless Tua returns to the field, stays healthy and orchestrates a revolution in form. That seems improbable.

They’re unlikely to sell off players who can be assets next year but Campbell presumably went to Miami for a playoff push as his career winds down. Playing out the slate on a losing, fairly dreadful team makes little sense.

Seattle’s D-line depth was severely tested against the Lions with Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy out. Adding Campbell would improve the interior rotation and provide great cover.

He’s also familiar with Mike Macdonald’s system, having played for the Ravens in 2022.

He only signed for $2m this year and having already taken four games off his salary, he’d be incredibly cheap to acquire. It also wouldn’t likely take much to bring him to Seattle.

A stumbling block might be his reluctance to leave. After all, he’s 38 and maybe went to Miami for more than just the chance to play for the Dolphins. He attended the University of Miami and might see it as an ideal spot to round off a great career.

I’d consider a call to Miami if there was a chance to get this done. The defense lacked a presence up front on Monday night and this would protect against it happening again.

The other player to consider is linebacker Devin Lloyd in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 0-4 and might also be considering a re-set in the off-season. Jeremy Fowler reported today they could be sellers.

Jerome Baker and Tyrell Dodson are only signed for this year. Baker has been injured and Dodson, after a good start, struggled behind a makeshift D-line in Detroit.

Lloyd is contracted for this season and next with cap hits of $3.5m (2024) and $4.1m (2025). Acquiring him would give you more depth and talent at the position, especially if Baker is going to be a constant injury question mark.

We saw what Mike Macdonald did for Roquan Smith in Baltimore. While Lloyd is not the same level of player, he’s shown a lot of improvement in the last season and a bit. Last year he received a 78.1 PFF grade. His mark for the first three games of this season is a 70.2 but on a struggling team. Importantly, he receives high grades for his run defense (76.3) — a major weakness for Seattle on the road so far.

In college Lloyd played with a physical style that would fit the mentality the Seahawks are aiming for.

I’m not sure what he would cost. The Jaguars took him in round one two-and-a-half years ago so it might be tricky to work out a price that would suit both parties. It is worth noting he missed Jacksonville’s last game through injury but he could return this weekend.

It’s nigh on impossible to predict a realistic trade scenario unless a player is actively being shopped like Davante Adams. However, both of these suggestions don’t seem that outrageous. I’m not sure they’d transform the Seahawks into major contenders or anything — but certainly if you inserted Campbell and Lloyd onto the roster they’d provide a major boost in depth with the potential to provide some impact.

With the offense flexing the way it did on Monday, adding more depth to the defense could really help the Seahawks in a wide-open NFC.

Last year they made the Williams trade sensing an opportunity to win the NFC West. They’re in a very similar position now. Will they act again?

Finally, do me a favour and check out my latest appearance on Puck Sports. This time I was on with Puck and Jim Moore. It was a real treat to speak to them both:

Scouting notes week five: Carson Beck’s stock collapses, the reality of round one, Cam Ward vs Virginia Tech, Ashton Jeanty is really good & more

October 1, 2024 /

The last few days have confirmed a number of the things we’ve been discussing since summer scouting, in particular how thin the first round is looking.

Jim Nagy made this point on Monday:

This is one of the reasons why I build a horizontal board and don’t just chuck out ‘top-50’ lists and endless mock drafts. In both instances you’re not getting a snapshot of a draft class. You’re just seeking names to fill holes.

Jim noted he’s hearing fewer than 10 consensus legit first round players. On my board, which currently contains 128 players, I currently only have the following names in the top bracket:

Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
Abdul Carter (LB, Penn State)
Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)

Too many players are wrongly labelled ‘unique’ but Hunter legitimately fits the bill. It’s extremely difficult to pick between the two positions he plays for Colorado, that’s how good he is. Graham is a fantastic, complete defensive tackle. Johnson is a total class act in every sense at cornerback. Jeanty has shown so far this season that he is a non-typical example of a running back who warrants consideration with a high draft pick. Burden can be a downfield threat and a brilliant YAC specialist. Carter has outstanding speed and can move around the front-seven to wreak havoc. Starks is a classic modern-day Swiss army knife in the secondary.

I then have a list of players that could get into the top tier, or that you’d be willing to take in round one. Yet these players carry question marks. Can Quinn Ewers stay healthy and consistent? Are you willing to draft Shedeur Sanders early, considering what comes with having Sanders as the main man on your roster? Will we learn enough about Colston Loveland the Michigan tight end in his current offense to justify a top grade?

How fast is Tetairoa McMillan? It’s not clear if he’ll test well. Is James Pearce Jr going to be a liability setting the edge and is he a game wrecker or someone who looks better than he actually is? Does Kelvin Banks have the length to stick at tackle?

There are a whole bunch of players who are being way overrated in the media. Cam Ward, who I’ll talk about in this article, is being projected by some as a top-10 pick. Others are mocking him first overall. That is incredible. Will Campbell, a short-armed tackle who has struggled this season and might have to kick inside to guard, is often mocked in the top-10. I don’t think Ohio State’s pass-rush duo of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are anything like first round picks but they’re often mocked there.

There are also players being somewhat underrated. Josh Simmons at Ohio State might be the best pass-blocking left tackle eligible for 2025. Kaleb Johnson, Nicholas Singleton and DJ Giddens don’t get as much attention as some other running backs. TJ Sanders is an impact interior rusher from South Carolina and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is playing as well as anyone in college football.

I’ve said this a few times but a lot of the stuff you’ve been reading in the draft media is off. The 2025 draft does not look strong at the top end. As a consequence, we might see teams preparing to make trades using their top picks in the off-season.

Alabama vs Georgia was a tale of two quarterbacks

NFL teams are going to have a hard time forgetting this performance from Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. Even if he has a fantastic end to the season, they’ll keep coming back to this one. Compare Beck’s performance in Tuscaloosa to Quinn Ewers’ a year ago. They couldn’t be more different. A horror-show like this lingers in the memory, in a NFL-type environment. This game will haunt Beck.

It started badly and spiralled quickly. He almost threw a bad interception to start his second drive, after opening with a quick four-plays and a punt. Then he threw an ugly pick trying to set up a telegraphed screen.

His second interception was appalling — throwing it straight to Jihaad Campbell, who only had to drop and read the QB’s eyes. It’s a bad decision to not recognise the lurking danger and bad execution on the throw because if he aims it higher, he could clear any threat from the linebacker.

On his very next throw when Georgia regained the ball, Beck telegraphed another pass and the Alabama player dropped a pick-six. By this point he was all over the place and looked frazzled. His next throw was a hopeless lob down the seam to nobody. Then he was pressured on a blitz in his own end zone, he panicked and launched it downfield to nobody. It was a clear intentional grounding for a safety and two points to Alabama.

His ball placement, just as it was against Kentucky, was all over the place. He throws to general areas and consistently makes his receivers work to the football. He doesn’t have the great physical traits to entice you to want to work on this aspect of his game. He’s long, wiry and doesn’t have a great arm. Without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey to throw to, he looks very average.

Given Georgia’s near-epic comeback, you’d think things were better in the second half. Not really. He fumbled at the start of the fourth quarter trying to scramble. His redzone touchdown to Lawson Luckie with 9:46 remaining was harder to catch than it needed to be. He had a 67-yard touchdown throw to take the lead courtesy of a blown coverage by Keon Sabb (who totally bit on a little shoulder fake — how do you let that happen protecting a lead?).

By the end of the game he was throwing desperate 50/50 balls hoping his receiver would win contested catches. He ended the contest with such a pass — a floaty lob into the end zone which was easily intercepted for his fourth turnover of the game.

It’s clear now that the talk of being a first round pick was way off the mark. Frankly, it’d be hard to justify taking him on day two based on what we saw here. There’s nothing special physically and he’s not an accurate passer.

Jalen Milroe had a very different experience on Saturday and I’ll talk a lot about the positives in this article. However, once again we’re seeing a highly unrealistic and unnecessary reaction to this game. People are suggesting he’s shown rapid development as a quarterback this season. Some are saying he could be QB1 or warrants a first round pick. Please, let’s just pause for breath.

Georgia had no answer for his running ability in the first half. It’s almost like they’d never watched him play. They consistently gave up the perimeter run and should’ve funnelled him inside, while mushing their pressure to make him throw. After half-time they adjusted and sorted this out — but it took way too long.

On the opening drive he ran in the opening score. His second touchdown was a perfectly thrown wheel route with 10/10 placement and accuracy on the throw. His third score was a 36-yard rush on fourth down where he just exploited Georgia’s huge weakness defending the perimeter, rushing to the edge and exploding past the last defender and sprinting for the end zone. His ability to accelerate out of a corner and explode is akin to a Ferrari Formula One racing car. He made Georgia look slow.

This made for a dynamic, explosive first half showing. It was a teaching-tape example of how not to play Milroe. It also highlighted how brilliant Kalen DeBoer is as a scheming play-caller — tactically creating open receivers for Milroe to target.

Here’s the thing though — I still don’t think we had much of an opportunity to assess how he is developing as a technical passer. It was still a lot of one-read and run stuff. The offense creates easy completions for the quarterback and there’s almost no processing. Milroe is not sitting in the pocket, going through any kind of progression and throwing with timing or anticipation. He looks at the receiver who he is supposed to throw to. Sometimes, as with all of these offensive schemes, he might have to look-off a defender first. But then it’s either time to throw to the intended target or set off running. And it’s all done very quickly.

Under DeBoer the throws are more cultured and crafted, rather than throwing deep and hoping for the best — which is kind of what we saw last year. Is this true development? If you compare Milroe in this game vs the SEC Championship against Georgia, I guess it’s development of a sort. Milroe the passer was pretty bad against Georgia last season. Here, he looks a lot more in-tune with the offense and things are far less haphazard. Yet he’s not playing in a way that he’ll need to play in the NFL.

He won’t be able to just take off when his first read isn’t there in the NFL. Shedeur Sanders scrambles to extend and create to throw downfield. Milroe turns into a running back the minute he rejects the read. A proper perimeter defense with a spy could limit his running effectiveness at the next level. Is he capable of sitting in the pocket and playing conventionally? There’s little evidence of that. Until we see it, I’m not sure I’d call what we’re seeing ‘development’ so much as ‘DeBoer’s scheme is a lot better than what they were using a year ago’.

Look at third downs for example. Alabama were 3/11 on the night. They were 5/13 against USF. Having watched both games, I don’t think I’d back Milroe in the key downs unless he was able to find a running lane.

Is he a particularly accurate quarterback? He threw a bad interception in the red zone before half-time. The throw was behind the tight end and made it a far more difficult reception than it needed to be. The ball was juggled and picked off via the deflection. Admittedly, as already noted, he also had some excellent throws too — none more so than the touchdown on the wheel-route.

Milroe’s extreme physical qualities will carry appeal, as will his A+ character and personality. He will get a shot in the NFL. Right now, though, I think he’s still a day two pick with intriguing physical potential. Someone who, over time, could pair an improved technical grasp of the position with fantastic athletic skill. I think he’s a better version of what Malik Willis was coming into the league.

Some other final quick notes from the game. I thought Alabama left guard Tyler Booker again showed plenty of pure power and size, while moving well for such a massive frame. I legitimately think he could be a very plausible option for the Seahawks next year but it’s tricky to project a draft range.

There were three quality linebackers on the field. Jalen Walker is incredibly versatile and can rush the edge or play as a more conventional middle linebacker. He moves well around the field, plays with an edge and could be a first round pick. Alabama’s Deonte Lawson finds himself in the backfield all the time. He organises the defense well and his compact frame brings great power when he attacks the LOS. Jihaad Campbell looks very smooth and athletic but his high-cut frame might be an issue for some.

You’ve got to love this running back class

Ok, we’ve found him. The natural heir to Beast Mode. He plays for Boise State and he will be a first round pick, possibly the Heisman winner and he’s going to go earlier than people realise.

Ashton Jeanty is a phenomenal talent. His leg drive through contact is about as good as any player since Marshawn. He has enough speed to turn good runs into great runs. He can get to the perimeter. He changes direction with subtle shifts and footwork to make electric cuts. He breaks numerous tackles and trucks defenders. His pass pro is decent. He hurdled a defender on a catch and run against Washington State to show off athletic, explosive qualities, not just power.

Let me be clear, I’m not suggesting the Seahawks should draft another runner. They won’t get an opportunity to. Unless their season tanks, he’ll be gone by the time they pick anyway. Someone else should take him early though.

His first touchdown against Wazzu was a Beastquake-style run. On his second touchdown he had two defenders hanging off him as he dragged them into the end zone.

His third touchdown was spectacular. He bounced to the outside, breaking contact off the edge. After reading the perimeter he turned upfield, breaking one tackle then cutting away from another. He then sprinted to the end zone and with a defender trying to bring him down, he leapt to the end zone Super Man style to finish the run for a score. It’s one of the most electrifying runs you’ll ever see.

Jeanty’s final touchdown saw him zig-zag through blocks before trucking a defender on the goal line to get into the end zone.

Watch for yourself. I know the Washington State tackling absolutely stinks (sorry Cougs) but this is what a first round running back looks like:

For the season he has 43 missed tackles forced in four games. His nearest rival, Anthony Tyus III from Ohio, has 39 MTF’s but he’s played five game. Jeanty has 588 yards after contact — by far the most in college football. Omarion Hampton is second with 508 but he’s played an extra game. Kaleb Johnson is third with 457, he’s played four games. DJ Giddens is fourth with 415 and he’s played five games. For what it’s worth, Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens are my top three runners on the horizontal board.

Jeanty also leads the league in yards after contact per attempt at 7.17. Jonah Coleman at Washington is second with 5.69. Kaleb Johnson is third with 5.57. He leads college football with 10.3 yards per carry. Kaleb Johnson is second with 8.4.

These are astonishing numbers. High first round pick numbers.

I spoke last week about Iowa’s Kalen Johnson and his brilliance. He too could find a home in round one. I want to mention Kansas State’s Giddens this week. I thought he could be a second rounder had he declared for the 2024 draft. I watched his performance against Oklahoma State and I remain convinced he can go in that range.

He had 187 yards from 15 carries on Saturday, including one touchdown and a catch for a further 22 yards. He has a gliding quality, can break contact and finish runs. Giddens possesses enough speed to be a home-run hitter. There is a ton to like here.

Along with Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens, I’ve given a second round grade to Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton and Georgia’s Trevor Etienne. I also think Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai will be a day two pick and likely make a team very happy with his selection, plus Arkansas’ Ja’Quinden Jackson is another potential day-two pick. Omarion Hampton is the other runner I have currently graded for day two, with a bunch of early day three grades. I’m torn on whether to include LSU’s little used senior Josh Williams in the third round range. It’s a thick looking running back group.

The reality as I see it with Cam Ward

Ward has so far played better than I expected for Miami. I’ve seen him play live and always felt he had creative potential without having the physical brilliance to overlook some of the mistakes. I think he’s taken his game to another level in Miami and I’ve moved him up a round on my board (round three) — but as I’ve said a few times this season, there are things not being discussed amid a flurry of ‘first round’ and even ‘first overall pick’ chatter.

It’s a shame because I want to praise Ward for the start he’s had this season. Yet because the hype has just become so ridiculously over the top online, you constantly feel like you’re being negative about him. Instead of the positive (he’s improved his grade) you end up pushing back against the hyperbole.

Miami are still yet to play a truly challenging opponent. When Ward was at Washington State he tended to start very well then make mistakes when things became more challenging as the season developed. On Friday night against Virginia Tech, we saw the return of that. Miami should’ve lost the game.

He had some excellent throws attacking the sideline. Indeed at the start of the contest he looked very sharp. The colour commentator claimed he ‘went through his progressions’ on one touchdown throw when he was actually just holding the safety. It’s this kind of analysis that leads to bad reactions. Yet it was still a good job by Ward to manipulate the defender and throw with accuracy and velocity.

However, he’d pair plays like this with frustrating interceptions where he isn’t reading the defense properly and making avoidable mistakes. He had three turnovers — two picks and a fumble. His accuracy was also patchy, missing on several throws. His completion percentage was only 63.2% — easily his lowest mark of the season. Then he came roaring back at the end to lead two game-winning drives.

His footwork is still an issue as he tends to drift and freelance rather than play with greater structure. I’m not sure he has the big physical tools either — but at the same time he isn’t average in terms of arm and mobility.

He was credited with five big-time throws in the game and three turnover-worthy plays. That’s Ward in a nutshell. I’m not sure Miami’s schedule is tough enough to see this fully exposed but if he was playing in the SEC — I suspect we’d see him turn back into the Washington State quarterback we saw in 2022 and 2023. He can produce magic but then, in an attempt to try and do too much, he forces things and the mistakes flow.

He will not be able to play out of structure as much as he is at Miami and he’ll need to convince teams he can just set and drop with poise and timing. He can’t go backwards, as he has a tendency to do, and play off script. As we saw in this game, he is still the player who is prone to the occasional ‘WTF’ mistake.

Some teams will stomach this more than others. I actually think the Seahawks, with John Schneider and Ryan Grubb, might be more intrigued by his willingness to attack and create than some others. I still don’t think they’d take him as early as some are projecting though.

Watching a player live is a very different experience than watching on TV. When I watched Ward in person, I didn’t personally feel like I was watching a high draft pick. He will be drafted — probably on day two. But I’m not convinced it’ll be earlier than that.

Don’t just take my word for it either. Here’s Todd McShay citing a league source discussing Ward before the Virginia Tech game (first video) and after (second video):

Thoughts on Michigan vs Minnesota

Defensive tackle Mason Graham had two sacks and for me, he’s one of the top three eligible players next to Travis Hunter and Will Johnson. His first sack was a lovely swim move to beat the guard and burst into the backfield for a big loss. He flashed quickness and great technique on the swim. On his second sack, he just walks the guard back into the quarterback with supreme power. He is the complete defensive tackle.

It was a shame that neither Johnson and electric edge rusher Josaiah Stewart didn’t play due to injury. Stewart in particular is a player to monitor for the Seahawks. Wink Martindale loves him. He’s excelling in a scheme run by Mike Macdonald’s mentor. His personality fits the profile the Seahawks have gone for in the last three drafts. The only question marks are size and testing — but I think he could easily be on their radar. He won Michigan the game against USC last week.

Kenneth Grant had a sack but really it was just Max Brosmer running into him a yard behind the LOS. Grant is a good athlete but I’m yet to see the special qualities some people claim he has.

I thought Minnesota’s quarterback Brosmer actually played quite well in a difficult situation. He doesn’t get much help from his team — Minnesota gave up a lot of early pressure and they don’t have great weapons. He helped mount a late comeback in the rain with some accurate throws over the middle, making big conversions. He’s not going to be an early round pick because he lacks amazing physical traits but there is something there. I wouldn’t want to see him land with a Shanahan or McVay type because he might be able to run their systems quite effectively.

I like the way he attacked the seam late on, threw layered passes and made a game of this. His throw right at the end to make it a three-point game was spectacularly caught by the receiver but it was also a terrific arrowed pass into a tight window in the end zone.

His only interception on the day was an incredible play by the defensive back to somehow track the ball and improbably get a foot in bounds. It was unlucky for the quarterback. Like I said, he’s not a high pick or anything but he has a shot for the NFL I think.

Other notes

— LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had some sloppy moments on Saturday after his team had built a commanding lead against overmatched South Alabama. He threw a couple of horrible picks — I think because he took his eye off the ball. It’s a shame because up until that point he’d looked assured once again, throwing with anticipation, accuracy and he even had a couple of rushing touchdowns (one a sneak, one a scramble). The second lousy pick seemed to act as a kick up the arse and he led a very good touchdown drive with a couple of impressive deep throws. He’s having a very good season but he doesn’t need to chase stats.

— I watched Penn State’s Drew Allar against Illinois and I still think his accuracy looks patchy. He misses too many easy throws. He badly under threw a wide open receiver downfield on one play and was lucky to get a fortunate PI flag. It should’ve been a touchdown. He also still looks a bit ungainly on the move and reminds me too much of Mike Glenn for comfort.

— Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard was a lot better against Louisville — avoiding mistakes, playing the percentages, doing a better job in the pocket and letting things play out around him. It still feels like his bed is made as an ‘athlete at quarterback’ rather than ‘athletic quarterback’. Even so, this was an improvement. I’ll continue to monitor him. I especially liked his long touchdown pass where he turned down the opportunity to take off and run having stepped up into the pocket (there was an enormous amount of space in front of him) and instead threw with great accuracy downfield. You want to like him because of his physical tools but he needs to show better consistency and feel in the pocket.

— I watched Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson against USC. I thought he played well on the road — stymying most attacks off the edge. He has clear strength on contact and he’s difficult to move. He isn’t overmatched vs speed which is encouraging. He’s a classic old-school physical blocker from the BIG-10. I like him a lot as a possible left guard convert but think he could also be a decent right tackle. If the Seahawks want physical linemen with positional flexibility he could be an option, especially as someone who could move inside one spot to left guard. He’s 6-6, 310lbs and has 33 5/8 inch arms. Scott Huff used players like this at left guard at Washington. I think he could be a very useful day two pick for Seattle to try and fix a problem area. The Detroit game highlighted how much of a priority the offensive line will be in the off-season.

— I also studied Alabama’s Parker Brailsford and Iowa’s Logan Jones further over the weekend. Obviously Brailsford has a history with Huff and Grubb but both players fit the brief for an athletic, aggressive center. If the Seahawks want to invest in the position in the off-season, they could both be plausible options. For what it’s worth, Jones has been timed running a 1.53 10-yard split at 293lbs, he’s jumped a near 37-inch vertical, he’s run a 4.09 short shuttle and he set an Iowa squatting record of 695lbs. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz has compared him to Tyler Linderbaum athletically. He also plays with a mean streak.

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