The last few days have confirmed a number of the things we’ve been discussing since summer scouting, in particular how thin the first round is looking.
Jim Nagy made this point on Monday:
Spoke to four NFL execs past week and all said same thing about upcoming 2025 draft, there's an šŖš£šŖšØšŖšš”š”š® šØš¢šš”š” š£šŖš¢ššš§ of sure-fire first rounders this year. Amount of Round 1 grades in most drafts is in mid-teens & good drafts tend to have low-20's. Based onā¦
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) September 30, 2024
This is one of the reasons why I build a horizontal board and don’t just chuck out ‘top-50’ lists and endless mock drafts. In both instances you’re not getting a snapshot of a draft class. You’re just seeking names to fill holes.
Jim noted he’s hearing fewer than 10 consensus legit first round players. On my board, which currently contains 128 players, I currently only have the following names in the top bracket:
Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
Abdul Carter (LB, Penn State)
Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
Too many players are wrongly labelled ‘unique’ but Hunter legitimately fits the bill. It’s extremely difficult to pick between the two positions he plays for Colorado, that’s how good he is. Graham is a fantastic, complete defensive tackle. Johnson is a total class act in every sense at cornerback. Jeanty has shown so far this season that he is a non-typical example of a running back who warrants consideration with a high draft pick. Burden can be a downfield threat and a brilliant YAC specialist. Carter has outstanding speed and can move around the front-seven to wreak havoc. Starks is a classic modern-day Swiss army knife in the secondary.
I then have a list of players that could get into the top tier, or that you’d be willing to take in round one. Yet these players carry question marks. Can Quinn Ewers stay healthy and consistent? Are you willing to draft Shedeur Sanders early, considering what comes with having Sanders as the main man on your roster? Will we learn enough about Colston Loveland the Michigan tight end in his current offense to justify a top grade?
How fast is Tetairoa McMillan? It’s not clear if he’ll test well. Is James Pearce Jr going to be a liability setting the edge and is he a game wrecker or someone who looks better than he actually is? Does Kelvin Banks have the length to stick at tackle?
There are a whole bunch of players who are being way overrated in the media. Cam Ward, who I’ll talk about in this article, is being projected by some as a top-10 pick. Others are mocking him first overall. That is incredible. Will Campbell, a short-armed tackle who has struggled this season and might have to kick inside to guard, is often mocked in the top-10. I don’t think Ohio State’s pass-rush duo of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are anything like first round picks but they’re often mocked there.
There are also players being somewhat underrated. Josh Simmons at Ohio State might be the best pass-blocking left tackle eligible for 2025. Kaleb Johnson, Nicholas Singleton and DJ Giddens don’t get as much attention as some other running backs. TJ Sanders is an impact interior rusher from South Carolina and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is playing as well as anyone in college football.
I’ve said this a few times but a lot of the stuff you’ve been reading in the draft media is off. The 2025 draft does not look strong at the top end. As a consequence, we might see teams preparing to make trades using their top picks in the off-season.
Alabama vs Georgia was a tale of two quarterbacks
NFL teams are going to have a hard time forgetting this performance from Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. Even if he has a fantastic end to the season, they’ll keep coming back to this one. Compare Beck’s performance in Tuscaloosa to Quinn Ewers’ a year ago. They couldn’t be more different. A horror-show like this lingers in the memory, in a NFL-type environment. This game will haunt Beck.
It started badly and spiralled quickly. He almost threw a bad interception to start his second drive, after opening with a quick four-plays and a punt. Then he threw an ugly pick trying to set up a telegraphed screen.
His second interception was appalling — throwing it straight to Jihaad Campbell, who only had to drop and read the QB’s eyes. Itās a bad decision to not recognise the lurking danger and bad execution on the throw because if he aims it higher, he could clear any threat from the linebacker.
On his very next throw when Georgia regained the ball, Beck telegraphed another pass and the Alabama player dropped a pick-six. By this point he was all over the place and looked frazzled. His next throw was a hopeless lob down the seam to nobody. Then he was pressured on a blitz in his own end zone, he panicked and launched it downfield to nobody. It was a clear intentional grounding for a safety and two points to Alabama.
His ball placement, just as it was against Kentucky, was all over the place. He throws to general areas and consistently makes his receivers work to the football. He doesn’t have the great physical traits to entice you to want to work on this aspect of his game. Heās long, wiry and doesn’t have a great arm. Without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey to throw to, he looks very average.
Given Georgia’s near-epic comeback, you’d think things were better in the second half. Not really. He fumbled at the start of the fourth quarter trying to scramble. His redzone touchdown to Lawson Luckie with 9:46 remaining was harder to catch than it needed to be. He had a 67-yard touchdown throw to take the lead courtesy of a blown coverage by Keon Sabb (who totally bit on a little shoulder fake — how do you let that happen protecting a lead?).
By the end of the game he was throwing desperate 50/50 balls hoping his receiver would win contested catches. He ended the contest with such a pass — a floaty lob into the end zone which was easily intercepted for his fourth turnover of the game.
It’s clear now that the talk of being a first round pick was way off the mark. Frankly, it’d be hard to justify taking him on day two based on what we saw here. There’s nothing special physically and he’s not an accurate passer.
Jalen Milroe had a very different experience on Saturday and I’ll talk a lot about the positives in this article. However, once again we’re seeing a highly unrealistic and unnecessary reaction to this game. People are suggesting he’s shown rapid development as a quarterback this season. Some are saying he could be QB1 or warrants a first round pick. Please, let’s just pause for breath.
Georgia had no answer for his running ability in the first half. It’s almost like they’d never watched him play. They consistently gave up the perimeter run and should’ve funnelled him inside, while mushing their pressure to make him throw. After half-time they adjusted and sorted this out — but it took way too long.
On the opening drive he ran in the opening score. His second touchdown was a perfectly thrown wheel route with 10/10 placement and accuracy on the throw. His third score was a 36-yard rush on fourth down where he just exploited Georgiaās huge weakness defending the perimeter, rushing to the edge and exploding past the last defender and sprinting for the end zone. His ability to accelerate out of a corner and explode is akin to a Ferrari Formula One racing car. He made Georgia look slow.
This made for a dynamic, explosive first half showing. It was a teaching-tape example of how not to play Milroe. It also highlighted how brilliant Kalen DeBoer is as a scheming play-caller — tactically creating open receivers for Milroe to target.
Here’s the thing though — I still donāt think we had much of an opportunity to assess how he is developing as a technical passer. It was still a lot of one-read and run stuff. The offense creates easy completions for the quarterback and there’s almost no processing. Milroe is not sitting in the pocket, going through any kind of progression and throwing with timing or anticipation. He looks at the receiver who he is supposed to throw to. Sometimes, as with all of these offensive schemes, he might have to look-off a defender first. But then it’s either time to throw to the intended target or set off running. And it’s all done very quickly.
Under DeBoer the throws are more cultured and crafted, rather than throwing deep and hoping for the best — which is kind of what we saw last year. Is this true development? If you compare Milroe in this game vs the SEC Championship against Georgia, I guess it’s development of a sort. Milroe the passer was pretty bad against Georgia last season. Here, he looks a lot more in-tune with the offense and things are far less haphazard. Yet he’s not playing in a way that he’ll need to play in the NFL.
He won’t be able to just take off when his first read isn’t there in the NFL. Shedeur Sanders scrambles to extend and create to throw downfield. Milroe turns into a running back the minute he rejects the read. A proper perimeter defense with a spy could limit his running effectiveness at the next level. Is he capable of sitting in the pocket and playing conventionally? There’s little evidence of that. Until we see it, I’m not sure I’d call what we’re seeing ‘development’ so much as ‘DeBoer’s scheme is a lot better than what they were using a year ago’.
Look at third downs for example. Alabama were 3/11 on the night. They were 5/13 against USF. Having watched both games, I don’t think I’d back Milroe in the key downs unless he was able to find a running lane.
Is he a particularly accurate quarterback? He threw a bad interception in the red zone before half-time. The throw was behind the tight end and made it a far more difficult reception than it needed to be. The ball was juggled and picked off via the deflection. Admittedly, as already noted, he also had some excellent throws too — none more so than the touchdown on the wheel-route.
Milroeās extreme physical qualities will carry appeal, as will his A+ character and personality. He will get a shot in the NFL. Right now, though, I think he’s still a day two pick with intriguing physical potential. Someone who, over time, could pair an improved technical grasp of the position with fantastic athletic skill. I think he’s a better version of what Malik Willis was coming into the league.
Some other final quick notes from the game. I thought Alabama left guard Tyler Booker again showed plenty of pure power and size, while moving well for such a massive frame. I legitimately think he could be a very plausible option for the Seahawks next year but it’s tricky to project a draft range.
There were three quality linebackers on the field. Jalen Walker is incredibly versatile and can rush the edge or play as a more conventional middle linebacker. He moves well around the field, plays with an edge and could be a first round pick. Alabama’s Deonte Lawson finds himself in the backfield all the time. He organises the defense well and his compact frame brings great power when he attacks the LOS. Jihaad Campbell looks very smooth and athletic but his high-cut frame might be an issue for some.
You’ve got to love this running back class
Ok, we’ve found him. The natural heir to Beast Mode. He plays for Boise State and he will be a first round pick, possibly the Heisman winner and he’s going to go earlier than people realise.
Ashton Jeanty is a phenomenal talent. His leg drive through contact is about as good as any player since Marshawn. He has enough speed to turn good runs into great runs. He can get to the perimeter. He changes direction with subtle shifts and footwork to make electric cuts. He breaks numerous tackles and trucks defenders. His pass pro is decent. He hurdled a defender on a catch and run against Washington State to show off athletic, explosive qualities, not just power.
Let me be clear, I’m not suggesting the Seahawks should draft another runner. They won’t get an opportunity to. Unless their season tanks, he’ll be gone by the time they pick anyway. Someone else should take him early though.
His first touchdown against Wazzu was a Beastquake-style run. On his second touchdown he had two defenders hanging off him as he dragged them into the end zone.
His third touchdown was spectacular. He bounced to the outside, breaking contact off the edge. After reading the perimeter he turned upfield, breaking one tackle then cutting away from another. He then sprinted to the end zone and with a defender trying to bring him down, he leapt to the end zone Super Man style to finish the run for a score. Itās one of the most electrifying runs youāll ever see.
Jeanty’s final touchdown saw him zig-zag through blocks before trucking a defender on the goal line to get into the end zone.
Watch for yourself. I know the Washington State tackling absolutely stinks (sorry Cougs) but this is what a first round running back looks like:
Ashton Jeanty made Washington State's defense look like a JV squad. I've never seen more forced missed tackles on a RB tape.
Just watch these 5 clips. #RB1 pic.twitter.com/kVZGdYLBeR
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 29, 2024
For the season he has 43 missed tackles forced in four games. His nearest rival, Anthony Tyus III from Ohio, has 39 MTF’s but he’s played five game. Jeanty has 588 yards after contact — by far the most in college football. Omarion Hampton is second with 508 but heās played an extra game. Kaleb Johnson is third with 457, he’s played four games. DJ Giddens is fourth with 415 and heās played five games. For what it’s worth, Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens are my top three runners on the horizontal board.
Jeanty also leads the league in yards after contact per attempt at 7.17. Jonah Coleman at Washington is second with 5.69. Kaleb Johnson is third with 5.57. He leads college football with 10.3 yards per carry. Kaleb Johnson is second with 8.4.
These are astonishing numbers. High first round pick numbers.
I spoke last week about Iowa’s Kalen Johnson and his brilliance. He too could find a home in round one. I want to mention Kansas State’s Giddens this week. I thought he could be a second rounder had he declared for the 2024 draft. I watched his performance against Oklahoma State and I remain convinced he can go in that range.
He had 187 yards from 15 carries on Saturday, including one touchdown and a catch for a further 22 yards. He has a gliding quality, can break contact and finish runs. Giddens possesses enough speed to be a home-run hitter. There is a ton to like here.
Along with Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens, I’ve given a second round grade to Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton and Georgia’s Trevor Etienne. I also think Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai will be a day two pick and likely make a team very happy with his selection, plus Arkansas’ JaāQuinden Jackson is another potential day-two pick. Omarion Hampton is the other runner I have currently graded for day two, with a bunch of early day three grades. I’m torn on whether to include LSU’s little used senior Josh Williams in the third round range. It’s a thick looking running back group.
The reality as I see it with Cam Ward
Ward has so far played better than I expected for Miami. I’ve seen him play live and always felt he had creative potential without having the physical brilliance to overlook some of the mistakes. I think he’s taken his game to another level in Miami and I’ve moved him up a round on my board (round three) — but as I’ve said a few times this season, there are things not being discussed amid a flurry of ‘first round’ and even ‘first overall pick’ chatter.
It’s a shame because I want to praise Ward for the start heās had this season. Yet because the hype has just become so ridiculously over the top online, you constantly feel like youāre being negative about him. Instead of the positive (he’s improved his grade) you end up pushing back against the hyperbole.
Miami are still yet to play a truly challenging opponent. When Ward was at Washington State he tended to start very well then make mistakes when things became more challenging as the season developed. On Friday night against Virginia Tech, we saw the return of that. Miami should’ve lost the game.
He had some excellent throws attacking the sideline. Indeed at the start of the contest he looked very sharp. The colour commentator claimed he ‘went through his progressions’ on one touchdown throw when he was actually just holding the safety. It’s this kind of analysis that leads to bad reactions. Yet it was still a good job by Ward to manipulate the defender and throw with accuracy and velocity.
However, he’d pair plays like this with frustrating interceptions where he isnāt reading the defense properly and making avoidable mistakes. He had three turnovers ā two picks and a fumble. His accuracy was also patchy, missing on several throws. His completion percentage was only 63.2% — easily his lowest mark of the season. Then he came roaring back at the end to lead two game-winning drives.
His footwork is still an issue as he tends to drift and freelance rather than play with greater structure. Iām not sure he has the big physical tools either ā but at the same time he isnāt average in terms of arm and mobility.
He was credited with five big-time throws in the game and three turnover-worthy plays. That’s Ward in a nutshell. I’m not sure Miami’s schedule is tough enough to see this fully exposed but if he was playing in the SEC — I suspect we’d see him turn back into the Washington State quarterback we saw in 2022 and 2023. He can produce magic but then, in an attempt to try and do too much, he forces things and the mistakes flow.
He will not be able to play out of structure as much as he is at Miami and heāll need to convince teams he can just set and drop with poise and timing. He canāt go backwards, as he has a tendency to do, and play off script. As we saw in this game, he is still the player who is prone to the occasional ‘WTF’ mistake.
Some teams will stomach this more than others. I actually think the Seahawks, with John Schneider and Ryan Grubb, might be more intrigued by his willingness to attack and create than some others. I still don’t think they’d take him as early as some are projecting though.
Watching a player live is a very different experience than watching on TV. When I watched Ward in person, I didn’t personally feel like I was watching a high draft pick. He will be drafted — probably on day two. But I’m not convinced it’ll be earlier than that.
Don’t just take my word for it either. Here’s Todd McShay citing a league source discussing Ward before the Virginia Tech game (first video) and after (second video):
Thoughts on Michigan vs Minnesota
Defensive tackle Mason Graham had two sacks and for me, he’s one of the top three eligible players next to Travis Hunter and Will Johnson. His first sack was a lovely swim move to beat the guard and burst into the backfield for a big loss. He flashed quickness and great technique on the swim. On his second sack, he just walks the guard back into the quarterback with supreme power. He is the complete defensive tackle.
It was a shame that neither Johnson and electric edge rusher Josaiah Stewart didn’t play due to injury. Stewart in particular is a player to monitor for the Seahawks. Wink Martindale loves him. He’s excelling in a scheme run by Mike Macdonald’s mentor. His personality fits the profile the Seahawks have gone for in the last three drafts. The only question marks are size and testing — but I think he could easily be on their radar. He won Michigan the game against USC last week.
Kenneth Grant had a sack but really it was just Max Brosmer running into him a yard behind the LOS. Grant is a good athlete but I’m yet to see the special qualities some people claim he has.
I thought Minnesota’s quarterback Brosmer actually played quite well in a difficult situation. He doesnāt get much help from his team ā Minnesota gave up a lot of early pressure and they donāt have great weapons. He helped mount a late comeback in the rain with some accurate throws over the middle, making big conversions. Heās not going to be an early round pick because he lacks amazing physical traits but there is something there. I wouldnāt want to see him land with a Shanahan or McVay type because he might be able to run their systems quite effectively.
I like the way he attacked the seam late on, threw layered passes and made a game of this. His throw right at the end to make it a three-point game was spectacularly caught by the receiver but it was also a terrific arrowed pass into a tight window in the end zone.
His only interception on the day was an incredible play by the defensive back to somehow track the ball and improbably get a foot in bounds. It was unlucky for the quarterback. Like I said, he’s not a high pick or anything but he has a shot for the NFL I think.
Other notes
— LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had some sloppy moments on Saturday after his team had built a commanding lead against overmatched South Alabama. He threw a couple of horrible picks — I think because he took his eye off the ball. Itās a shame because up until that point heād looked assured once again, throwing with anticipation, accuracy and he even had a couple of rushing touchdowns (one a sneak, one a scramble). The second lousy pick seemed to act as a kick up the arse and he led a very good touchdown drive with a couple of impressive deep throws. He’s having a very good season but he doesn’t need to chase stats.
— I watched Penn State’s Drew Allar against Illinois and I still think his accuracy looks patchy. He misses too many easy throws. He badly under threw a wide open receiver downfield on one play and was lucky to get a fortunate PI flag. It shouldāve been a touchdown. He also still looks a bit ungainly on the move and reminds me too much of Mike Glenn for comfort.
— Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard was a lot better against Louisville ā avoiding mistakes, playing the percentages, doing a better job in the pocket and letting things play out around him. It still feels like his bed is made as an āathlete at quarterbackā rather than āathletic quarterbackā. Even so, this was an improvement. Iāll continue to monitor him. I especially liked his long touchdown pass where he turned down the opportunity to take off and run having stepped up into the pocket (there was an enormous amount of space in front of him) and instead threw with great accuracy downfield. You want to like him because of his physical tools but he needs to show better consistency and feel in the pocket.
— I watched Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson against USC. I thought he played well on the road — stymying most attacks off the edge. He has clear strength on contact and heās difficult to move. He isnāt overmatched vs speed which is encouraging. He’s a classic old-school physical blocker from the BIG-10. I like him a lot as a possible left guard convert but think he could also be a decent right tackle. If the Seahawks want physical linemen with positional flexibility he could be an option, especially as someone who could move inside one spot to left guard. He’s 6-6, 310lbs and has 33 5/8 inch arms. Scott Huff used players like this at left guard at Washington. I think he could be a very useful day two pick for Seattle to try and fix a problem area. The Detroit game highlighted how much of a priority the offensive line will be in the off-season.
— I also studied Alabama’s Parker Brailsford and Iowa’s Logan Jones further over the weekend. Obviously Brailsford has a history with Huff and Grubb but both players fit the brief for an athletic, aggressive center. If the Seahawks want to invest in the position in the off-season, they could both be plausible options. For what it’s worth, Jones has been timed running a 1.53 10-yard split at 293lbs, he’s jumped a near 37-inch vertical, he’s run a 4.09 short shuttle and he set an Iowa squatting record of 695lbs. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz has compared him to Tyler Linderbaum athletically. He also plays with a mean streak.
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Also if you missed it, check out our instant reaction podcast reacting to the Detroit loss on Monday Night Football: