Jeffery Simmons tore an ACL this week
Yesterday it was revealed Jeffery Simmons has suffered a torn ACL. There’s a strong chance he’ll miss the entire 2019 season.
Simmons already had baggage of course, relating to that video from High School. It was starting to feel, however, that teams were satisfied he’d made amends at Mississippi State and would be a high draft pick.
Now? Who knows.
It’s inevitable Seattle will trade down from #21. If they move into the late first or early second round — I want to reflect on two questions:
1. How likely is it Simmons will be available in that range?
2. Would they draft him?
On the question of whether he’s likely to be available, Lance Zierlein says the people he’s spoken to in the league believe he’ll drop out of the first round.
If teams had reservations about drafting Simmons due to the video, this could be the straw to break the camels back.
On the other hand, other players have had similar or more serious injuries and still remained in round one:
— Cedric Ogbuehi tore his ACL while playing for Texas A&M in a Bowl game on 12th January, 2015. That’s exactly a month earlier than Simmons. He was still the 21st pick in the 2015 draft.
— Todd Gurley tore his ACL in mid-November 2014. He was drafted 10th overall in the 2015 draft.
— Tank Carradine tore his ACL on 25th November, 2012. He was drafted 40th overall in the 2013 draft.
—- Sidney Jones tore an achilles on 11th March, 2017. He was drafted with the 43rd overall pick in the 2017 draft.
— Jaylon Smith suffered a career-threatening knee injury on January 1st, 2016. He was taken with the #34 pick in the 2016 draft.
— Myles Jack dropped from a likely top-10 range after it was discovered his knee could be degenerative. He was taken with the #36 pick in the 2016 draft.
There are a mix of possibilities here. Unfortunately, there’s very little to give us a steer on his possible range.
If a team really likes Simmons — as the Rams did with Gurley in 2015 — he could still be a high pick. His talent certainly warrants that level of faith.
It’s possible he drops out of the top-20 but doesn’t fall much further — as we saw with Ogbuehi.
Or he could drop into the early part of round two as we saw with Smith or Carradine.
It’s practically impossible to say with any confidence which way it could go.
Would the Seahawks draft him?
If they trade down into the #25-40 range and he’s available it’s something they might consider. The thing is, it’s not something they’ve done before.
In the nine drafts operated by Pete Carroll and John Schneider they haven’t spent a single pick on what amounts to an ‘injury redshirt’.
The nearest thing was probably Jesse Williams in 2013. Even then, he dropped to round five due to concerns about his long-term health. He wasn’t recovering from an ACL.
While other teams like Trent Baalke’s 49ers were happy to collect injured players who fell in the draft, the Seahawks looked for immediate competitors. Some of their picks have carried risk — whether that’s character or injury history. But none of their picks were players they knew wouldn’t be able to play football for over a year.
The idea of adding a top-15 talent without needing a top-15 pick is appealing to an extent. The Seahawks are never going to get a player like Simmons when, on average, they have the #24 pick in the Carroll era.
It’s also possible they’ll see his redemption story at Mississippi State and now the need to battle back from a torn ACL as a challenge of character that carries some appeal. This is a guy who has faced a deal of adversity (some self-inflicted). How he deals with that over the coming months could determine whether the Seahawks are willing to spend their first pick on him to spend a year in recovery.
Here’s the other side to this though. Teams intending to contend will see their first pick as an opportunity to add impact. The Seahawks are not miles behind the top teams in the NFL — but they are behind.
They’ll want to close the gap in 2019. Not wait until 2020.
Alternatively a team like the Rams will see a window of opportunity closing in 12 months once they’ve been forced to pay mega-money to Jared Goff, Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley. Are they going to want to wait a whole year for their top 2019 pick to take the field? Or are they going to be seeking impact?
Whether you’re at the pinnacle or aiming to reach it — Simmons isn’t helping you for a long time. For that reason, the team that maybe takes him is a side in the midst of a rebuilding operation.
Would the Raiders, for example, be willing to use one of their many high picks to ‘stash’ Simmons — knowing they’re unlikely to be an AFC contender in 2019? Will the Dolphins consider drafting him? Recent reports suggest they’re willing to use this year to rebuild.
You may ask — haven’t you been suggesting the Seahawks might take a quarterback early? Where’s the impact there? Fair question. However — preparing for a possible contract impasse with Russell Wilson is simply smart planning at the most important position in the sport. It’s not particularly comparable.
The idea of a healthy Jeffery Simmons playing in Seattle is attractive. Considering what they’ve done in their previous nine drafts, however, and with a need to try and catch the Rams in the NFC West — I suspect the Seahawks will prefer to draft someone who has a chance to play a role immediately.
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Was Malik Mcdowell not hurt and thats why he lasted,
Or was he just a bad interview with character concerns?
Character flags
Everyone loved seeing the Hawks over perform expectations this year.
As I have said before I truly believe that within 1 year we could be at the top of the precipice of competition within the league.
I believe that this draft is critical to keeping the Hawks on this trajectory.
I also believe that you can never have too many pass rushers… and you win in the trenches on both sides.
So if we could come away with Simmons, Lj Collier, and Kaleb McGary I think we would be bolstering both Lines of scrimmage in such a way that within 1-2 years we would be a DOMINANT UNSTOPPABLE running team, With a suffocating Pass rush again.
How are the Hawks getting 3 top 50 talents? I am on board for sure! Just curious how they pull that off with only 1 pick in the first 2 rounds.
Wow, Flacco to the Broncos.
Joe Flacco just traded to Denver for a mid-round pick, per Schefter and Rappaport.
Lmao. John Elway stays making sure he goes down as the greatest QB in Broncos history.
Will be interesting to see what happens to Keenum. Backup? Compete to start? Trade?
Drafting Simmons seems like something that would have been a great plan in 14 or 15.
Now? Not so much. I am in the camp they need someone who can contribute in year 1.
I think perhaps what they accomplish in FA may determine whether they would burn a high pick on Simmons. If they find value that upgrades the interior, they might see Simmons as a nice redshirt hedge on Reed if they feel there will be a challenge to get a deal done, and are staring at tagging RW in 2020.
My question is how secure they would feel about a talented college DT with that kind of injury long term, and if the risk is too much for a top pick. I think it could be one thing to come back from that kind of injury if you play a position where you are running and hitting or playing the edge, it could be something else if you’re tasked to taking on two 300 lb plus blockers on most plays. Do we know how many DTs with torn ACLs are able to heel up and remain healthy and as effective and play with relative longevity?
The lack of any precedent over taking a ‘redshirt’ pick makes me think it won’t happen.
I think it works in the Seahawks favor. If he goes in the range where the Hawks would eventually have their first pick. A team with similar needs might select him and give the Hawks a good option to select who they want.
It just shakes up board a little more in their favor.
As you already noted Rob, impossible to predict how Pete/John will view this situation if Simmons is within their range after a trade back or two. Does the recent Mcdowell fiasco steer them away from players with any “character flags” let alone a player with a significant injury who can’t help the team right away? Who knows right..
I suspect they will avoid this situation altogether, thinking they want/need a player who can contribute on the field in 2019. However, there is probably a value sweet spot where taking Simmons is just to enticing, as he has incredible upside. Maybe that’s in the back of round 1, the top of R2, or perhaps we’re sitting with a pick between #43-50 and the value is to good to pass.
Obviously this will be the case for some team(s), since someone is going to select him and he’s not likely to slide past R2. It will be fun to see!
“While other teams like Trent Baalke’s 49ers were happy to collect injured players who fell in the draft”
Those picks were in the heyday of the Niner run. I can’t remember all the names besides Lattimore and Carridine, but it felt like they spent a fair amount of capital on lottery tickets that didn’t work out. Those drafts coming up empty was one of the reasons they went downhill so fast. A definite example of caution needed to be sure.
When I saw the news about Simmons yesterday, I immediately flashed back to the discussions we were having on this blog about Dominique Easley in 2014. There were a lot of posters talking about how recovery from a torn ACL is much more certain than it used to be and this is a chance to get a top-15 talent later in the draft. Seattle had the depth then to allow for a “redshirt” season. I was intrigued with the idea. But,
1. As Rob pointed out, PCJS have never done this. Never. You might disagree with their drafting strategy but they have their trends and they follow them.
2. It is never certain that any prospect will make the NFL. Prospects recovering from a serious injury are playing catch-up from the beginning. Dominique Easley was drafted #29 by New England in 2014 and never made a significant contribution to the Patriots before being released in 2016.
3. You are paying legitimate money for a player who can’t play, and you are wasting one of the less-expensive years in the rookie salary scale. So, there are cap-management drawbacks to the “red-shirt” strategy.
4. If you do a pure “risk-reward” analysis, you have the same potential reward (pro-bowl talent) with other players who are healthy. The risk is different (small school, questionable attitude, character flags) and PCJS seem much more willing to take on those risks than injury risk. Plus, you get a year of play time.
5. Seattle does not have the depth that they had in their championship period when we were talking about Easley and they only have 4 picks in this draft. So, they don’t have the same capacity to spend a top pick on a player who won’t help in 2019.
I hope Simmons recovers 100%. But, I do not think Seattle will draft him. The only scenario that would seem possible is if Seattle trades back to get 6-7 picks in the draft and Simmons unexpectedly is still available late in Round 3 or early in Round 4 because of the character flag. PCJS seem willing to work on character flags and Simmons seems more like the type they would be willing to take on than the type they avoid.
When was the last time the Seahawks first pick made a major contribution in their rookie season?
Not many rookies make a major contribution
But they can begin their development and still contribute.
Rashaad Penny at #27 is the highest first pick we’ve used in a draft since taking Bruce Irvin in 2012. Haven’t exactly been in the position to take major contributors since those guys go in the Top 10. The guys we’ve taken have been useful in their first season and overall have become very solid parts of our team – Ifedi, Clark, Richardson when he was here, Penny going forward.
Not sure what more you could ask for.
2010? Okung and Thomas.
Wagner and Wilson.
Baldwin lead the team in receptions I think?
Tyler Lockett and M Dickson were all pro special teamers.
5-6 OL have started as rookies. Staring 16 games is a major impact I would argue.
Chris Carson and Will Dissly made really strong impressions before getting hurt earl on.
First pick, though, not just rookies.
My expectations out of a first round pick is that they would contribute significantly in the first year and become a starter. Second round, if there is an opening I would expect them to be a starter also.
They should not take him with their 1st pick. After a trade down (or two,) Simmons may still be there and the talent is obvious. However, the Hawks need their top pick to be an impact guy in 2019. Wishful thinking would have him available in the 3rd or 4th, but him being available there probably would be an indication of a bigger concern.
RANDOM SIDE QUESTION:
Would Josh Rosen for Antonio Brown be anywhere near a fair deal?
Intriguing trade question Ty, but a tough one to answer. For a win now team, who wouldn’t rather have AB (all off field antics aside) over Rosen? He’s clearly the better player at this stage of their careers, but his down side and red flags are considerable as well. If I’m the Steelers, I know Big Ben is getting close to pasture time, I might take a chance on Rosen. Sit him a year or two under Ben and hope he’s ready when Ben pulls the plug. They also rid themselves of AB’s headaches!
Trade rumors are that Ravens QB Joe Flacco will be traded to the Broncos. That would be a good landing spot for him. Broncos have been looking for a good QB. That may bump Case Keenum, or he may stay as a backup.
Overall = I don’t think this will help the Broncos that much.
Flacco going to Denver. Sign that Elway doesn’t love this QB class?
Might be a sign he wants to try and mimic the Chiefs and the way they handled Mahomes.
That’s a good point. The exchange for Flacco isn’t much.
Except for his pretty sizable contract you mean? They also incur a big chunk of dead money on their cap if they cut Keenum, or they pay two mediocre QB’s a lot of coin. Bad options!
Yes, it looks like it might be a sign that they want to trade up aggressively in the draft and find a QB they are confident won’t be bad.
After all, it seems like there is a trend of QB’s going to Denver and not being very good. Cutler, Tebow, Osweiler, Lynch, Keenum etc. Flacco could fit right into that group.
The best QB move he has made since Manning. Bring in a guy who can start 1 or 2 years, then draft a guy behind him and bring that guy in slowly. There has been some linkage to the Ohio State QB…… but I’m not convinced he is the right guy for Denver.
Sign that he likes had QBs.
Epic mic drop by V12!
N’Keal Harry with a 42″ vert. 🔥
https://mobile.twitter.com/overtime/status/1095439727895941120
Shame it doesn’t help him separate
So is the writing on the wall with Frank Clark? Gotta hedge him immediately.
They franchise him and that’s a sign that he’s too expensive to keep for more than a year in all likelihood. JS ain’t ever used it, because IMO he hates it and considers it negligence on his part. AKA his ‘break glass in case of emergency.’
The tag instantly eats up the whole cap hit right?
Or is this part of the whole gamesmanship/human chess that PC/JS like to play during draft time?
IMO, clark won’t sign the franchise tag right away. So that will give both sides time to negotiate a long term contract, as opposed to no franchise tag/long term contact and letting him walk.
Clooney, Clark, Lawrence… one wants to be the first to sign. They need the tag to buy them time and protect them.
Autocorrect on tablet got me
Should have read Clowney, Clark, Lawrence… nobody wants to be the first to sign. They need the tag to buy them time and protect them.
Normally I would be all for taking advantage of a draft stock dip due to injury, especially for a player of Simmons caliber, but if we learned anything from this past season it is that the Seahawks lacked depth. And with a shortage of picks in this draft, I am not sure they can afford to use their first pick on a guy who won’t play next season. I think this offseason is all about shoring up the roster and adding depth, especially on positions such as DL.
Pete needs to change his philosophy name from “Win Forever” to “Win Now” because the decisions they’ve made strategically the past several seasons, including last season’s “reboot” year, have been short-sighted. Had we not consistently traded away picks for players and signed JAG FA’s that take away comp picks, we could more easily afford to take advantage of this opportunity potentially falling into our laps.
I am sure PC/JS would love a redo on the 2017 season, starting with drafting McDowell. His injury set in motion a series of unfortunate events that we are seeing the effects of now… burning a pick to bring Richardson in for a year; Fant’s injury in preseason eventually made the trade for Brown a necessity, and Lane’s failure of the physical cost the Seahawks’ another pick. The moves made in 2017 were about trying to squeeze in another SB run with the LOB core.
If you have read Win Forever (and I highly recommend it) you will know that one of Pete’s models for success was the Marv Levy Buffalo Bills who made it to four straight SBs. Win Forever is about being highly competitive EVERY year by getting the very best out of each and every player.
And that is the reason they won’t take a red-shirt (injured) player in the draft, and also why they will trade down to accumulate more picks. As Rob has remarked upon, Pete likes his team so they don’t have a “needs” list they have to have from the draft.
That and I don’t think they ever zero in on just one guy. Seems like it’s a group of guys they’re comfortable selecting.
Really think this is an insightful comment and although a lot of us zero in on one player management doesn’t. This is one of many reasons they are management and we are fans.
Happy Bday to my favorite college prospect I’ve ever put eyes on. WR Randy Moss. 54 collegiate TDs, almost 30 yards per kick return, The GOAT.
The #’s he put up at his pro day in ’98 are legendary.
He can’t run after the catch they said. Won’t beat physical corners they said. Lolololol.
Enjoy!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B6gA7k55C8w
I remember that draft and seeing randy moss’ highlights and wanted the hawks to draft him sooooooooo bad..
Although we picked Anthony Simmons instead. He was a solid player.. Not HOF great.. Its better than a bust though..
Frank is such a unique specimen, like a hybrid of Cliff and Mike B, I have a really hard time seeing them letting him walk, but they might have to if they are anticipating using the franchise tag on RW in 2020.
I kinda think that they might use a combo of FA, draft, and development within to find a hedge. If it comes down to choosing between RW and Frank in 2020, I don’t see Frank winning that battle. They might look back on those Super Bowl teams and weigh in that they had good players that produced in rotation but no real blue chipper.
Personally, I want to see if Josh Martin can add a bit more weight and still keep his quicks and I want to see what Rasheem Green does in his second season.
Man, I don’t know. Trading down multiple times in order to roll the dice on a discounted item just feels too much like the Malik situation – though of course not an apples to apples comparison.
I’m not opposed to bargain shopping per se, as sometimes you get a Frank Clark or Marshawn Lynch when capitalizing on those opportunities. But personally I’d start to be a little more risk adverse early in the draft. Sometimes the safe pick gets you Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed or Earl Thomas.
Daniel Jeremiah:
“The more I watch Vandy CB Joejuan Williams, the more I like him. Wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up being the best CB in the class.
very interesting guy for Pete Carroll tree of coaches.”
Rob, you sir, are on fire this year! Thank you for all you do dude!
Thanks Josh, appreciate it buddy. Thank you for reading.
Not gonna lie: not the greatest highlight vid ever made, but he’s still one of my guys nonetheless. 😃
https://twitter.com/mdogbe14/status/1095704154264154112
Highlighted him against NC St. a week or so ago. Here he is from 2017 against ‘Bama.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GUf4gg19nO0
A&M’s Keke Kingsley (6’3, 286 lbs., 34″ arms). Really, really like him as a later day 2 guy. For a guy his size he can really tighten corners, moves extremely well laterally, strong hands, versatile. Improved a ton from 2017-2018. He’s right around 300 lbs in this game here.
Vol, I keep watching Keke’s tape and I want to like him…but his burst off of the line is so meh. I way prefer Charles Omenihu—that guy explodes off of the line. It’s really eye-catching. And from the games I’ve seen, Texas lined him up wide 9, 5 tech, and 3 tech. His versatility, size, arm length…it’s all there. He had 18 TFLs just last season! His upside really intrigues me and he seems like a guy we could potentially get on Day 2.
What are your thoughts on Omenihu?
His timing of the snap is a little inconsistent.
Big fan of Omenihu’s upside. If you look in the archives you’ll see my thoughts on him.
But I’m starting to get the feeling fans are looking for the perfect prospect. No such thing.
‘Good run stuffer, but doesn’t offer much pass rush’
‘Great pass rusher, but isn’t good against the run’
Guys this is the age of designed packages and fronts/formations. It’s why PC created the ELEPHANT position and why BB uses it so much.
Most elite pass rushers aren’t great run defenders. If they were or are they go top 10 for a reason.
Jaylon Ferguson just had his combine invite rescinded due to a background check revealing he was charged with battery as a freshman…wow.
Oh my!
Yes the hawks have never taken a injury redshirt player. BUT they’ve always been in ‘win now’ mode. I don’t know that they are in that mode now. Especially with the Wilson uncertainty and “no glaring needs”
They’re in ‘win now mode’ for sure — albeit in a retooling stage.
We can’t say in 2019 they’re in a less ‘win now’ mode than they were in say 2010 or 2011.
I don’t know if Pete Carroll is ever NOT in a ‘win now’ mode
Depends on how likely PCJS think it is they retain Wilson. Their job is to plan for the future. As you mentioned in this post, this is a factor for deciding their first pick. Obviously taking a QB is better, just depends who. Would you take Grier over Simmons middle of round 2?
I love Simmons and for me is a top-10 prospect in this draft, but I think Khalen Saunders could end up being the best DT in this draft a few years from now. If I had the option of drafting Simmons, whom would have to redshirt his first year, or Saunders…I’m taking Saunders all day long. Saunders may not be the eye catching specimen that Simmons is, but Saunders consistently gets pressure and is uncommonly athletic for his body type. Yeah Simmons and Wrenn are body beautiful and great athletes, but Saunders shows out gameday and is also quietly athletic.
I think that realistically the Hawks should be using 2019 as building year to add depth and develop young talent like Green, Martin and Flowers as well as see what they have in Thompson / Hill at Safety.
With that thinking in mind if the Hawks trade back into the 40s as expected then I think they should run to the podium. Give him a full year to red shirt and recover then next year you add a legit top 5 talent to the DL rotation.
Rd #2 Paris Campbell (WR Ohio St) Pete gets his Percy Harvin but with a great attitude.
Rd#3 Charles Omenihu (DL Texas) Ideal 5 Tech in the Hawks scheme. Long and athletic if he tests well a combine could go earlier.
Rd#3 Caleb Mcgarry ( RT/ Wash) Ifedi was so much better last year but I don’t see the Hawks paying him big $ as a free agent. Mcgarry , Fant and Jemarco Jones would give the Hawks great young depth at OT.
Rd #4 Dandre Walker (LB/ Georgia) would be a steal here but he could slip with having to ,is Senior Bowl and perhaps combine with injury. Has the talent to be day 1 starter at SAM with pass rush upside.
Rd#4 Jamal Peters (CB Miss St) protype Hawks CB and great run defender.
Rd#5 Drew Sample (TE Wash) would certainly be a nice addition with Dissly and Vannett.
I really like the picks you made for the D-line, because that’s exactly the 2 positions I think they target.
Another DL on the market.
Chargers decline option on Corey Liuget. He’s a FA
That’s an interesting name. Played in a similar scheme. May find more money elsewhere though.
Rob: Really interested in Khalen Saunders. What range do you think Saunders is taken?
I’d recommend reading my recent article on Saunders
Hey Rob,
Curious if Simmons were to get drafted and miss the entire 2019 season, would then his rookie eligibility be a similar contract situation with McDowell? Essentially where his injury was non-football related and therefore since he never saw the playing field, technically his first year of eligibility as a rookie wouldn’t go into effect until 2020 assuming he plays that year? Could this be an incentive for any team (not just the Seahawks) for spending a low first to actually acquire up to *6* years of team control? Or does this technically not apply since the injury happened pre-draft?
Thanks!
Because it happened pre draft you won’t get that luxury I’m afraid
Keep an eye on Miami. Another potential cap casualty is Robert Quinn. They’ll save almost $13 mil on the cap by releasing him. His base salary was $10.3 mil in 2018. Perhaps a $10 mil signing bonus, with $15 mil guaranteed, in a $32 mil 3yr contract, just might entice him to come to the Pacific NW.
He’ll be 29 in May, with plenty left in the tank. Signing him to a 3yr contract would be a good hedge on losing Clark, after the franchise tag is used on him. Frank just may decide to sign a reasonable contract, and love learning from an All Pro that had 19 sacks in one season. Dwight Freeney helped Frank on his spin move. I’m sure Mr. Quinn has a lot of tricks up his sleeve that Frank can glean from.
Playing in the loudest stadium in the league has it’s unique advantages. I’m sure he couldn’t wait to play against his old team, at least twice a year, for not signing him, and help regain the division.
It’s also good to blend in vets, with All Pro experience, with the youth that is being developed. Green & Martin will benefit as well. This may resolve the edge rush for now, if he becomes available and agreed upon by both parties. The inside push can come from the draft with Wren & Saunders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEdJxtDOiHU
Avril was 27yrs old and Bennett was 28yrs old when they signed with Seattle. Because of the declining market for rushers at the time, they both signed prove it deals. That may not work for Quinn. Barring injuries, he has at least, four good years ahead for him. I’m sure he’d love to have the opportunity to win a championship.
If he does get released, I’d get Russ on the phone to do some serious recruiting.
Like many other FA decisions the Hawks will be considering, it will be less about his contribution and more about Managing their limited (after resigning their own FAs) cap budget.
Prioritizing contributions of each FA will dictate the selections, in order to fit the selections under the cap. If edge rusher is high on their list of priorities, in which it is, the questions would be:
1. Can this be a viable means to resolve the a edge need, under the present cap constraints?
2. Will not retaining particular FAs, presently on the roster, be a solution, or present a problem for the team going forward?
3. Will the draft fill the voids of the FAs that are not retained in favor of new acquisitions?
4. Will trading down multiple times mandate the need to acquire a pure FA pass rusher, since one is not available via the later Rd draft positions?
All of these variables and more will be contributing factors as they manage, or navigate thru the cap constraints.
Daniel Jeremiah:
“Really enjoyed studying TCU edge rusher LJ Collier today. He’s got tremendous twitch and pop in his hands. He’s a top 50 guy.”
Has draft media hit 100 “top 50” guys yet? If they haven’t, they surely will during the Combine.
(Not hating on LJ or DJ. I like them both. Just saying in general.)
I have send you two emails (if.you didnt see them 🙂 )
This is the problem with DJ’s top 50 list though. He does it every year.
Not surprised Collier is starting to get talked about like that. We’ve been saying for a while on here he’s legit.
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/79070/how-jon-gruden-and-kyler-murray-can-help-jets-realize-draft-windfall
I can’t help but think the folks talking about laying up a year and wanting to red-shirt a guy are missing the mark a little. 2 losses by a combined 7 points to the NFC SB rep Rams. Close up those games and its a 12 win season. Heck Denver should’ve been played vastly differently and should’ve been a W too.
Bottom line for me, I think the Hawks are a lot closer than some give them credit for. My vote is to trade down a bit into the high 30’s and some extra picks, and grab the best play-maker on either side of the ball available when they do pick, and shore up the weak points through the rest of the draft. I’ve always been a drive the green and take your shot kinda guy and I firmly think the Hawks should be as well.
*caveat all this with: must lock up a couple pending FAs first.
I agree with what Georgia is saying.
I agree too. It seems to me that Pete is about the season he is in NOW. He’s not a ‘lose now, win later’ kind of guy.
Think you’re not considering all elements going into 2019 though. Firstly, we won’t have the same players we did regardless. Not enough cap room with Wilson’s contract just around the corner. Can Shaquem take over and be as good as Wright? Is Kendrick’s gonna be available and/or as good as Wright? Just that one player makes a big difference if you don’t have him all year. Are both safeties spots locked up? How’s the depth? Truth is, Seattle is missing depth at several positions.
Is special teams gonna take a step forward or backward? Point is, there are a lot of new question marks. It’s too simplistic to assume ‘18 hawks are exactly like ‘19 hawks given the amount of change and new needs. We could do that in the LOB era, not today.
Fair points Hicks! But on the flip side, you can’t assume the incoming players won’t be as good or competitive.
“Can Shaquem take over and be as good as Wright? Is Kendrick’s gonna be available and/or as good as Wright? Just that one player makes a big difference if you don’t have him all year.”
We didn’t have either of them all year last year. KJ played 5 games last year. Kendricks 4. Kinda makes the opposite point of your argument.
“Point is, there are a lot of new question marks.”
I’m not sure why people always point to the negatives when discussing year to year changes. The positives deserve just as much consideration. How about RW having another season in Schottenheimer’s offense? Penny having a full healthy camp? Second year progress for Flowers and Green? David Moore taking another step forward? A full healthy season of Dissly and Dickson at TE?
Couple problems with your argument:
1) LOB era, you had a core. We are rebuilding/retooling a new core. Most agree with this. So it’s looking at the team as a whole, not picking out the negatives
2) I used Kendricks and Wright as just one example. I also referenced depth as an issue. That’s true at DT LB WR, OT QB
3) Your point about RW in schottys system +1 year is overshadowed by the lingering contract issue which will NOT go down well for hawks. No scenario where Russ doesn’t command a large % of cap
4) Yes, there are some green shoots of promising developing talent, I’m not going to ignore that. I’m simply speaking to the team as a whole and what their approach should be. These are just shoots, not flowering prospects, yet
Great points you make Georgia, there was a few losses that could have been wins, but I have to point out several wins in 2018 that could have easily gone the other way (Panthers, Packers, Chiefs) as well. Not to mention two wins against the lowly Cards by 6 total points!
Now I’m not lobbying for Simmons, or any other “redshirt” player, just pointing out the fine line between 13 wins or 6, depending on how each of those close games played out.
Personally, I don’t think Pete/John will consider a player who’s gonna miss an entire year, but there’s probably a value point where it makes sense to select him if he’s still there. Round 3? Later? Who knows.
I agree about the value point. It might be in the rounds 4-5 range, AND the Hawks would have had to satisfy other needs earlier in the draft, AND Simmons would have to look a lot better to the Hawks than anybody else still available. Which is to say, not likely.
I’m not sold on Simmons… He’ll miss his first year, has/had some character concerns, he can be a boom or a bust. Just too many ifs for my taste. BUT it can’t be worse than the McDowell pick. I really doubt the Hawks will play in the SB in 2019 (season), but they might be in 2020 (season). So I think the non-impact pick depends on their rest of the picks.
If they can find a Dissly, Dickson, Flowers in rounds 3rd, 4th, 5th then no-one cares about their 1st pick not having an impact in his first year (due to injury). Green was a third round pick. Nobody complains about him not having a splashy 1st year. I think if they can find good, value and depth in the later rounds (3-4 players) then everyone would be fine with a high risk, high reward player. But if they cannot find value later then it might decrease their chance of a Super Bowl run for 2-3 years
I like Simmons but I don’t believe he’s a consideration for the ‘hawks, not with their lack of picks, not with their recent dramas at the position with McDowell busting, Naz Jones healthy scratching, Shamar Stephen being so glaringly average. They need another DT but they need one on the field sooner rather than later if they want to maintain an upward trajectory.
Rob, do you think the Cardinals selecting Murray and trading Rosen to the Giants is a relatively plausible scenario? What do you think Rosen goes for? Having Manning mentor Rosen (even for just a season or part of one) would surely be attractive for the Giants.
I would say unlikely because the Giants passed on Rosen a year ago in the draft. It seems he was a love/hate type of prospect.
Ah yes, of course – thank you!
I don’t think the Giants want anything to do with Rosen.
I’m all about Simmons