New mock draft: 12th February

This mock draft focuses on two big talking points:

1. The Cardinals being willing to draft Kyler Murray

2. The Raiders trading Derek Carr

I believe the Cardinals should strongly consider taking Murray with the top pick. Yes, they drafted Josh Rosen a year ago. Is anyone convinced he’s the answer? Is he launching the comeback for Arizona? Is he leading you back to the playoffs?

They need to find a star. Until you find him, you keep looking. It’s not often you own the #1 overall pick. Make use of it. Draft the best player at the most important position.

Take Murray and let him compete with Rosen. You can always trade a player down the line. They just hired a coach who thought Murray should be the #1 pick a few months ago. Let them work together. Let your new offensive-minded coach find his guy.

On the Raiders — Jon Gruden is making big changes. He doesn’t seem sold on Derek Carr. The New York Giants might be willing to make a deal for a starter who won’t have growing pains like a rookie. They want to win now. The Raiders want picks. It’s plausible they make a deal involving #6 overall.

That would leave Gruden to add a vastly experienced quarterback to lead his offense. Joe Flacco and Nick Foles are prime candidates here. My money would be on Flacco.

One other quick note. Adam Schefter is reporting that Jeffrey Simmons tore his ACL during training. I’m not sure how this will affect his stock. For now I’m keeping him in the top-15. This could have an impact though.

The mock draft

#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 Jacksonville (via SF) — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#3 New York Jets — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#4 Oakland — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#5 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#6 Oakland (via NYG) — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#7 San Francisco (via JAX) — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#8 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#9 Buffalo — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#10 Denver — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#11 Cincinnati — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#12 Green Bay — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#15 Washington — Devin White (LB, LSU)
#16 Carolina — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#17 Cleveland — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#18 Minnesota — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#19 Tennessee — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#21 Green Bay (via SEA) — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#22 Baltimore — Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
#23 Houston — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#24 Oakland — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#25 Philadelphia — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#26 Indianapolis — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#27 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#28 LA Chargers — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
#29 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#30 Buffalo (via SEA) — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#31 LA Rams — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#32 New England — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)

Breaking down the picks

#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
Murray is better than Josh Rosen. Trade Rosen or let them compete.

#2 Jacksonville trades up for Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
The Jags cut Bortles and then draft Haskins as the future.

#3 New York Jets — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
History repeats for the Jets. Sam Darnold fell to #3 a year ago. Now it’s Bosa.

#4 Oakland — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
The Raiders grab a dominant interior pass rusher.

#5 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
A former #1 national recruit — teams will love Gary’s upside and he’ll go very early.

#6 Oakland trades Derek Carr and selects Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
The Giants spend this pick on Carr, enabling the Raiders to draft a top edge rusher.

#7 San Francisco trades down and selects Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
He needs to get stronger or he’ll be a liability on early downs.

#8 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
A genuine top-10 talent with great character and athleticism.

#9 Buffalo — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
Hockenson is the best offensive prospect in the draft after Kyler Murray.

#10 Denver — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Apparently John Elways is enamoured with Lock’s potential.

#11 Cincinnati — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
The Bengals won’t have any issue drafting Simmons.

#12 Green Bay — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
A consensus is building that Taylor will be the first tackle off the board.

#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Reports say the Dolphins are prepared to tank in 2019 and build up the lines.

#14 Atlanta — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Ed Oliver is a wonderful talent. But what’s his fit at the next level?

#15 Washington — Devin White (LB, LSU)
White is fast and physical and provides value here.

#16 Carolina — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
He’s undersized but flies around and should have a great combine.

#17 Cleveland — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
Many believe Dillard to be the best pass-blocking tackle in the draft.

#18 Minnesota — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
It’s rare to find a player with Ford’s size, great feet and agility.

#19 Tennessee — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite’s motor never stops and he could go earlier than this.

#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Williams is slightly overrated and will last longer than people think.

#21 Green Bay trades up for Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
The Packers move up to get a much needed pass rusher.

#22 Baltimore — Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
Williams will likely move inside to guard or center.

#23 Houston — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
The Texans address their biggest need in round one.

#24 Oakland — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
The Raiders need two things — pass rush and offensive playmakers.

#25 Philadelphia — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
Antonio’s cousin could play the DeSean Jackson role.

#26 Indianapolis — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
The Colts need another weapon across from T.Y. Hilton.

#27 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
The Raiders add two big targets for their new quarterback (Flacco or Foles).

#28 LA Chargers — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
He likely kicks inside to guard but has a shot at tackle.

#29 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
He didn’t have an amazing Senior Bowl but the raw talent is there.

#30 Buffalo trades up for Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
The Bills need to build around Josh Allen.

#31 LA Rams — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
The feeling is Bradbury will go in round one and this is a need for the Rams.

#32 New England — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
Campbell would be a fine playmaker in New England.

The trades explained

Jacksonville (#7) trades up with San Francisco (#2) to select Dwayne Haskins
The Niners will clearly want to move down. If someone likes Dwayne Haskins or Kyler Murray enough, they’ll make a deal. In this scenario the Jags sign a veteran quarterback and then draft a longer term heir.

The New York Giants trade #6 for Derek Carr
The Giants want to win now and see the 27-year-old Carr as a better shot to do that than grooming a rookie. Jon Gruden appears lukewarm on Carr. He makes the trade and then brings in a veteran like Joe Flacco or Nick Foles.

Green Bay (#30) trades up with Seattle (#21) to select Montez Sweat
The Packers and Seahawks made a deal a year ago and history repeats here. Green Bay has a need at tackle and defensive end. They address both needs in this mock. The Seahawks are almost certain to trade down from #21.

Buffalo (#40) trades up with Seattle (#30) to select Josh Jacobs
There’s a strong possibility the Seahawks will trade down multiple times with only four picks to spend. The Bills move up ten spots to land Jacobs knowing he wouldn’t last to #40. The two trades net Seattle an extra third, fourth and fifth round pick.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

Trading down from #21 to #30 and then from #30 to #40 would enable them to acquire several picks to add to the measly four they currently own. They could get a third rounder for swapping picks with the Packers and then a further 4th + 5th for trading with the Bills. That would give the Seahawks three new picks in the middle rounds. That seems like a plausible target for moving down 19 spots.

What they actually do with their first pick is hard to determine. We need a combine and free agency to gain further information. Pete Carroll says they don’t have any big needs and I believe him. I think this is a wide open situation. And while adding to the pass rush will likely be a priority — it might be something they can do in the middle rounds this year (L.J. Collier?) and/or free agency. So it doesn’t necessarily have to be their top pick.

I think the pending Russell Wilson contract saga makes quarterback a strong consideration, in particular Will Grier (a sound fit given his ability to throw deep). Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State) is still on the board and fits the kind of receiver they’ve looked at in the past. There are still several athletic defensive linemen available including Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State) and Renell Wren (DT, Arizona State). There are several appealing offensive line options remaining.

There’s little reason to rule anything out at this stage.

The Seahawks will have options. The combine will provide vital information on who they might like. Free agency will give us a steer on the position they might target.

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  1. Wall Up

    Good looking assessment Rob! I concur with the progression in which they are able to accumulate more picks. The teams could very well be factors, depending upon the actual outcome of the draft. GB could be key in securing that important 3rd Rd pick.

    NYG could be a player in this, before BUF, depending upon OL prospects that are still on the table. BUF could follow because of their own need to rebuild their OL as well. This may result in an additional 5th Rd pick.

    I wouldn’t put it past JS to trade again to 47, and pick up a 4th Rd pick either. He’s probably mapped out areas and teams that would be willing to trade with. The more trades the better in the 2nd Rd. We should be seeing some 1st Rd trades happening shortly. It should be interesting.

  2. mishima

    Before I walk my dog, there’s a new post up. You’re killing it. Woof!

    What are your thoughts on Duke QB Daniel Jones?

    • Rob Staton

      Not that impressed

      • C-Dog

        +1 I don’t get all the love for Jones, because he was coached by the guy who once coached the Mannings and he is 6-5?

  3. JJ

    Rumored torn ACL for Simmons.

  4. Hicks

    What are your thoughts on Isaiah Buggs? Seems like he might be in range for the 40th. Really sudden for a guy his size, great bull rush, breaks double teams, quick enough to chase a qb to the sideline. Reminds me a bit of Michael Bennett

    • Rob Staton

      Short arms, might have to move inside. Like the way he played in 2018 but not sure he’s a fit for Seattle.

  5. Hicks

    Jeffery Simmons with torn ACL… what a shame. Maybe he lasts to 40? Are there character concerns too? Seems like the type of risk/value target PCJS would target. What a talent though, I wouldn’t be unhappy with that pick

  6. Jujus

    Breaking news

    Per Scherer. Jeffrey simmons may have torn acl training

  7. Kevin

    Who would you project the Seahawks would select at 40 in this mock?

  8. millhouse-serbia

    From @mortreport and me: Mississippi St. DT Jeffery Simmons, projected to be a top 15-pick in April, suffered a knee injury during training that is thought to be a torn ACL, per league sources. A statement to offer clarity on Simmons’ injury is expected to be released today.

  9. Sea Mode


    Jim Nagy

    Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf is a freaky specimen but when most football people see this the blink reaction will be that he’s getting too big. At this size, NFL teams will have concerns about his upper body flexibility. Hard to adjust and extend with this kind of bulk. #NFLDraft

    6:25 PM – 11 Feb 2019

    • Rob Staton

      D.K. Metcalf must be thinking WWE instead of NFL…

      • Volume12

        ‘Great. Another stiff wanna be wrestler. Not from the indies so he sucks.’

        ‘Hate Roger Goodell’s booking and the way he shoves Tom Brady down our throats.’

        ‘Can’t wait for Goodell to die so someone else can takeover the books. It would be so much better with Paul…. Tagliabue!’

        ‘Was disgusting the way the Rams treated Todd Gurley in the SB. Mistreated and underused after that monster push? Hope he goes to AEW.’

        ‘The SB is just like Wrestlemania now. All hype.’

        You think draft twitter is bad? They ain’t got nothing on wrestling twitter. Never seen a fan base hate what they watch so much and tune in week after week. F***n’ marks and geeks man. Big mad about a wrestling angle. lmao.

        • SoCal12

          On that tangent, I really am excited to see where AEW is headed though. I just really want to see someone give real competition to the big ‘E. The wrasslin’ fandom really are a bunch of whiny smarks, but it’s hard to deny how stale the WWE product has gotten with no other promotion really pushing them.

          • Volume12

            Oh it’s absolutely stale. Especially in terms of storylines. Vince still has his fastball though. The whole wrestling world is talking about last nights show closing angle. Your supposed to be mad. It’s ok to be worked.

            Sometimes it’s best to step away from the product if the booking and ‘scoopz’ are making you that upset.

            I’m not a big fan of any one in AEW at the moment, but my hope is they don’t become TNA and push WWE cast-offs.

    • H

      For sure that image looks like it’s stretched, otherwise he’s definitely looking a bit too swol.

    • Volume12

      He bangin’ and clangin’ with N’Keal Harry?

      Steaks and weights! Steaks and weights!

    • jb9

      No way does that guy pass a drug test

    • Eburgz

      The guy he’s standing next to us A.J. Brown. Who isn’t a small dude. That doesn’t concern me one bit as long as he runs like he’s supposed to. Guy is huge.

    • Look Who's Hawkin?

      David Boston 2.0.

    • Kenny Sloth

      Guys that look Like that are prime injury concerns

    • mac

      The best way to protect your neck is to get rid of it.

      • Sea Mode

        Comment of the week!

  10. Wall Up

    Simmons would have to be considered, if he does last in the 2nd Rd. The odds of that happening are pretty slim. Jaylon Smith had a much greater, gruesome injury, and was projected to go top 5-10 like Simmons, and he was taken in the early 2nd Rd @ 34.

    Simmons may drop, but probably not out of the 1st Rd. If he does drop to 30, after the 1st trade dn, they’d be hard pressed to pass on him.

    • Rob Staton

      And Todd Gurley was pick #10 while recovering from an ACL injury. So the chances of a significant drop are unlikely IMO.

      • WALL UP

        Agreed. Though Gurley’s injury occurred much earlier, and he only missed (3) games. If it is an ACL tear, Simmons will miss the entire season.

        Still, at the most, he may drop 5 to 7 slots, if any. I doubt if he makes it out of the teens.

    • Bigten

      Jaylon smith didn’t have the off field concerns. Not saying Simmons doesn’t have the same character, I had no idea, but Smith was very high character. And smith also didn’t play year 1, s but people will have to assume the same with Simmons.

  11. millhouse-serbia

    Rob, would you take Simmons with 40th pick?

    • Rob Staton

      I can’t really answer that without any info on the injury.

      • Whit21

        I was tryin to post the acl tear on my phone but couldn’t, because there was no submit comment button. HaH..

        Anyway Rob, if the tear is a common one and is 8 to 12 month recovery time.. what range would you take him if you were JS/PC?

        • Sea Mode

          The “submit comment” button also gets hidden behind the dialogue box for me on my phone. The solution I have found is to turn my phone horizontal, wait for the site to flip orientation, then when I turn it back vertical the button appears as normal below the dialogue box.

  12. Volume12

    How long until a team signs Antonio Brown and their fans complain about how overpaid and washed up he is? Over/under on week 4?

    • Bayahawk

      No one can sign Antonio Brown. He’s under contract with the Steelers.

  13. Volume12

    What’s the biggest need SCHEME wise for Seattle? That’s our answer.

    We can look at their FA’s. That may tell us what positions they’ll be interested in. We can look at next years, drafting ahead, that might tell us. The combine will surely narrow things down, but for this team to function like it wants to, what does the scheme NEED?

    • AlaskaHawk

      I’ll bite. Since they claim to be a running team, their biggest need is consistent blocking and play calling for running plays.

      It also wouldn’t hurt for them to learn how to successfully run a screen play.

      • Rob Staton

        Alaska… can I ask how you’ve come to that conclusion after a season where Seattle were the clear #1 rushing team in the NFL?

        • AlaskaHawk

          By number of running plays and yards they were #1. There are other things to think about, like yards per carry. They would be rated #5 by yards per attempt, though the difference at the top is miniscule 5.1 yards vs 4.9.

          Do you think they can gain a yard when everyone knows they are going to run? That has been a problem in the past, a problem that a good running team shouldn’t have. I’ll just put this out there – if you can’t run for a yard whenever you want – your not a good running team.

          Then there are the future questions. How long will their older offensive line last? Who are the younger players that will form a new core? Will Davis return? Will Penny succeed, since he was used lightly his first year.

          I still look on the blocking and running game as a work in progress. Which is why I advocate for continuing to select offensive linemen in each draft – though lately that has been more through free agency.

          • Rob Staton

            Yes I think they showed they can get a yard when everyone knows they’re going to run. I think they proved that in 2018. There were multiple third and short and even forth and short conversions.

            Listen, I respect your view. But I think you’re fixated on the O-line. The last thing that’s an issue for Seattle right now is how they call their runs in short yardage situations.

      • Steve Nelsen

        I think the running game worked well last year. The only question is whether they can sign their FA guards.

    • Sea Mode

      #1 stop the run:

      4-3 DE opposite Clark

      Bigtime DT next to Reed

      #2 beat a defense in other ways when they sell out to stop the run:

      Offensive Weapon WR #3

      • GoHawksDani

        Absolutely this!

        Stopping the run and pass rush.
        And other than #3 WR, I’d add opening up the playbook. Especially for short-middle throws, screens, etc.

        This offence cannot really stretch the field horizontally. Too few outside runs and quick out throws. This is why Carson didn’t have too many big runs. The defence can sit in the middle and if the DL cannot stop the RB their LBs are tight enough to be able to limit to 5-10 yards

        • Rob Staton

          I’m really surprised. In the last 24 hours I’ve read in the comments section complaints about Seattle’s ability to scheme their runs properly and now a suggestion they can’t stretch the field horizontally. These are the two things they did really well in 2018!

          • Duceyq

            After week 2 Seattle was only 2nd to KC in explosive plays the rest of the season with 71. Not sure what people are complaining about.

          • GoHawksDani

            OK, maybe I’ve used the wrong term. I didn’t mean deep/long plays but outside runs, wide screens and shallow-sideline pass.

            They really rarely made Carson bounce outside. I don’t have stats, but it feels like at least 80% of his runs were inside runs. Penny made some crazy “go left,180-degree turn run right”, but it feels at least 70-80% of the team’s rushing attack went inside. I get it. You have Fluker and Sweezy. The beast and an athletic OG.
            It also feels like 90+% of Moore’s and Brown’s route were just post/corner/go.
            Baldwin runs more slant/in/out/crossing, but he was hurt a ton. Lockett can also run some nifty little mid-short routes well, but he has amazing talent at deep routes too.

            Maybe I would just favour more quick outs and slants and comebacks for example. And more pass to the TEs, more screens, more jet sweeps, more outside runs with Penny. A bit more run option where Russ can hand it to Carson for an inside run or keep for outside. Not saying do these stuff 70% of the time. But currently feels like these things are 20% of our offense.
            This might be because of the active roster, or just a 1st year thing with Schotty. But I think it’d help open up even more the rest of the plays (easier to separate on deep routes, easier to break out big runs, etc)

    • Steve Nelsen

      Defensively, the scheme is built on: physical press CBs, speedy FS, DL pass rush, nickleback to cover elusive WRs. I think you can check all those boxes except for DL pass rush and nickleback.

      Offensively, the scheme is built on physical running game, power run blockers, high efficiency WRs capable of explosive chunk plays, mobile QB, and a run blocking TE. I think you can check all the boxes again depending on signing their own FAs.

      In the past, Pete has chased a big WR and a red-zone receiving threat TE. I don’t know if you can call them scheme needs but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take another run at filling those roles.

      I would say both need and draft strength point to adding multiple pass rushers. I find a great deal of business validity in Rob’s argument for drafting a QB to provide leverage/backup for Russell’s contract negotiations.

      • Volume12

        If Pete wants to continue using his Cover 3 they’ll need a center fielder.

        If he only wants to rush 4, they need dudes up front. In a big way.

        I do tend to agree/believe that PC/JS ‘holy grail’ is a WR/TE. In 9 drafts under them, 5 of those years have been used on a pass catching weapon with one of their first 2 overall selections.

        And a guard will probably high on the priority list if they can’t get a real done with Sweezy and or Fluker.

        • LLLOGOSSS

          That’s a rare player. I expect we will continue to see the scheme we’ve come to depend on being adulterated. The LOB is no more, but there are more ways to play good defense. A better pass rush would help the coverage.

      • Whit21

        I agree with alaska to an extent.. When they needed to run against Dallas, it was difficult and hard fought yards. That group over achieved a little and when RW started to scramble and run instead of taking sacks, he padded the rush stats a little.. Especially after week 8.

    • C-Dog

      I see definite needs in the front seven, specifically perimeter help to make up for all the busted containments the snuck up and bit the team throughout the year, but what the team feels they need? If I’m to parse Pete, it’s improving third downs, and that is likely better options for Russ in the intermediate passing game, and that could be TE or a WR with some unique skills like Parris Campbell.

      If I’m to bet in Vegas on what the Hawks might do this offseason, it’s to find RW another shiny toy. I think Carroll trusts himself to coach up what he has on defense, and I tend to agree with Rob quite a bit on the notion Carroll likes his safeties a lot better than the fans do.

      • Sea Mode


        The elite athletes they look for on the offensive side of the ball always go early.

  14. Rick

    An incredibly out of the box thought would be the Seahawks trading Wilson to the Raiders, after the Raiders move on from Carr. Especially if they have a chance to get Murray at#4.

    Seahawks send – Wilson and #21 and #84
    Raiders send – #4, #6, #24, #27, #66, #130, #182, #194

    Run with Foles and Murray as your quarterbacks.
    Round out your draft with Ferrell, Campbell, & Ferguson

    (Wilson = 4, 6, 24) (21 = 27, 66) (84 = 130, 182, 194)

    • Hawktalker#1

      Hard for me to even read more trade Russ proposals . . . I had hoped this was behind us by now.

    • EranUngar

      Great Idea but Green Bay will probably push to trade ARod and NE will push to trade Brady so it’s going to be a tough trade…..

    • Duceyq

      Heard Joe Montana and Dan Marino are on the trading block too.

  15. Volume12

    Humans ain’t supposed to bend like this. 🔥

    • Sea Mode

      This guy has all the tools and the perfectionist work ethic to put it all together at the next level. Like him a lot.

    • Eburgz

      Looks like Avril getting low like that. I always forget about this guy. He’s got the bend and the hand
      use. Interested in the 10yd split.

  16. RandomFan


    Assuming the Cards choose Murray, that then seems inefficient to have two high round QB selections on the same roster, both under contract.

    Assuming the Seahawks want a QB, could you see any scenario where the Seahawks trade for Rosen? what would it take?

    FWIW, I was high on Rosen out of UCLA. Watching the USC-UCLA duel with Rosen vs. Darnold was especially eye opening, as Rosen was forced to consistently make plays under duress, against long down and distances (no help from the run game like Darnold got) and dealt with multiple drops by his WR.

    At risk of trying to justify my high hopes for Rosen, I felt like the Arizona coaching staff called a lot of very low percentage pass plays routinely, and put him in very bad situations throwing against a defense looking for the pass often. A better balance in the run game would seem to help Rosen especially well and might be a better than usual fit with the Seahawks, for the right price.

    • Eli

      It would be inefficient and it wouldn’t happen realistically. The Cardinals are a dumpster fire right now, and any QB would have looked bad playing with their O-line, lack of skill players, and inexplicable play calling.

      I’m high on Rosen too, and one-year shouldn’t change the fact that he was considered the most pro-ready QB coming out last year. He’s everything you want in a QB physically and once the Cardinals start to build around him I think he’ll excel. But that’s what they need to do now – build around him.

      Rosen is their franchise cornerstone. Drafting Murray would put them in the same exact spot they’re in now except they’ve now burned back to back Top 10 picks on QB, and effectively tanked the value of Rosen in the process.

    • Rob Staton

      Having a legit QB >>>> Inefficiency

      If they really believe in Rosen they shouldn’t take Murray. But if they have buyers remorse or simply think Murray is a fantastic talent (I do) you have to take him.

      • Elmer

        In that scenario what would you do with Rosen if you were Arizona’s GM?

        • Rob Staton

          Not sure. I’d be very tempted to let them compete. I’d see what you could get in a trade.

          • Hicks

            For what’s its worth, AZ head coach recently said Rosen is their guy despite rumors to pick Murray.

    • AlaskaHawk

      That first pick could be turned into 4-5 late first and second round players. Perhaps even a future first thrown into the deal. That would be a good start to rebuilding the team.

      If Rosen is really that bad, the Cardinals will be in picking in the top 10 next year too, when there will be more QBs coming out. The Rams and Browns dwelled down there for many years before improvements took hold.

    • jujus

      theres only enough room in the Seahawks facility for one messed up Schnozz (Nose)

  17. Adog

    There are runs on QBs, d.ends, d-linemen, and then o linemen…one on taken…d.bush in this mock. I like this mock because it has Seattle trading back twice. When we look back at this draft…it will be one where we say we got two starters at the linebacker position. Although I’m entirely unsure how we got in wright in the 5th(I think)…but I would not be surprised if that draft was similar to this mock where linebackers are pushed back by these runs on QBs and linemen.

  18. SamL

    I love the mock, though I think it’s way to big of assertion that the raiders will trade Carr. Also I’m not sure the cardinals would give up on Rosen so quickly, maybe if he shows no progress next year they might look to Fromm and Tua. Here’s what I think will happen with the QBs.

    Drew Lock – Denver
    Dwayne Haskins – Jacksonville or New York
    Murray – Jacksonville or Miami maybe Washington

    Also don’t the Redskins Basically have to take a quarterback because of Alex Smith’s injury. They really can’t afford a veteran so draft seems only option. I think it’s highly likely they take a chance on Grier with their pick. Those are just my thoughts not sure how accurate but have a good feeling about them.

  19. AndrewP

    Robb- While I agree with your assessment of players talents and fits with schemes, I can’t invasion any scenario where NYG give up #6 for Carr.

    Heck, I have a hard time seeing them give up 38 for him, for that matter.

    • Rob Staton

      I’m not a big fan of Derek Carr but QB’s are a hot commodity. And they want to win now.

      • AndrewP

        I could see a creative collection of picks (27/Carr), but, straight up…

        To put it in perspective: It would be more shocking to see Seattle stay at 21 and pick than to see the Giants give up #6 for Carr.

        • Rob Staton

          I disagree there. As I said, I’m not a big fan of Derek Carr. But QB’s like him aren’t often available via trade and this years crop of rookies are unappealing with one or two exceptions. If the Giants want a long term solution that can help them win in 2019, it makes sense.

          • AndrewP

            The person praying for it the most is the Chicago Bears GM who gave up the #12 pick for Rick Mirer, so he’ll be off the hook for dumbest QB trade of all time… but, Dave Gettleman is too smart to do it.

            Like I said, 38 and a 2020 3, maybe. A creative combo including 6, ok. 6 straight up… Just cannot see it.

            • Rob Staton

              I think you’re letting your own personal view on Carr cloud your judgement on how likely this is.

              Some teams will covet him. He’s a good age, he’s produced. The Giants need an answer at QB now. There are limited rookie options. They can’t keep waiting. The NFC East is wide open. Getting a starting QB for the #6 pick is a fair trade-off if you’re in a position to win in 2019.

              I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen or anything. But it’s possible. They’re certainly not going to get him for something as measly as #38 and a 2020 third. We’re talking about a QB with 123 touchdowns and 54 interceptions in five seasons — some of which he was playing on a rancid Oakland team. He’s not a personal favourite of mine but when you’ve got Saquon, OBJ and Engram he can help you win.

              • AndrewP

                38/2020 3 is close to a late 1st equivelent… That for a QB that has had one MVP caliber season and meh before and after is probably pretty fair. I’m going to metaphorically bet that this will be closer to the value they get for Carr than 6 straight up.

                • Rob Staton

                  You do remember that Sam Bradford was dealt for a R1 pick?

                  There’s also this:–123448912/Amp/

                  You’re underestimating the market for QB’s.

                  • AndrewP

                    A little context there… This was a Vikings team that had just lost their starting QB to injury on the eve of the season. Desperation was MUCH more of a factor for Minn than it will be for NYG.

                    And this was also three years ago. The league is continually learning the value of young talent, and I just don’t see an intelligent man like Dave Gettleman giving up the 6th pick in the draft for a 12-24ish QB straight up.

                    • Rob Staton

                      This isn’t a good counter Andrew.

                      In three years the value of QB’s has NOT diminished.

                      The Giants are no less desperate and needing to win than the Vikings were when they made that deal.

                  • AndrewP

                    Two weeks before the season starts is the same as an entire offseason to assess? No. Just, no.

                    And, that article ultimately agrees with me… Not gonna be the six straight up.

                    We’re both digging our heels in and are obviously not going to budge. Love the site. Love your work. We disagree here.

                    • Rob Staton

                      The article said New York’s top pick or their 2020 first rounder.

                      Giants are desperate, make no mistake. Regardless of the time of the year.

  20. Josh

    Going to be a lot of talk about Simmons now. Even if they trade to 30th, he could still be there now that he is injured. Typical clean ACL tear surgery is 9 months right? Of course there could be more damage and the rehab process would be longer but it would be awesome to trade to 30 and get Simmons and a couple more picks. Would be a shot in the arm next December when the hawks are getting ready for the playoffs if he comes back healthy. I can dream right??!? Hahaha

    • Look Who's Hawkin?

      In a draft that is DL heavy, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Simmons goes in Rd1. Though I could be wrong. I think he falls to the second with the news of his injury.

    • Jujus

      For me it will come down to what Pete is aiming for.

      Are we in year 2 of a retool?

      Or are we back to a win now.

      The year RW got hurt should have been our Tank year similar to the cowboys and gotten a great draft position.

      Personally I think we should aim for a Championship run in the 2020 season.

      If we can snag picks

      2 Simmons DT
      3 Kaleb McGary OT
      3 Lj Collier DE/5T
      4 LB
      5 Jalen Hurd WR
      6 CB
      7 FS

      Something like this im estatic for 2020

  21. SoCal12

    If Oakland trades Carr (and even if they don’t to an extent) I would think they’d be in the market for Murray as well. I know Gruden prefers vets at QB, but he can have his cake and eat it by drafting a rookie like Murray and signing a vet to compete and mentor him. Oakland spending a first on Murray then having him learn behind a Flacco or Tyrod Taylor (or heck even Carr) is a scenario that I see as very plausible. I can already hear Gruden talking about ‘This Murray kid man, he’s a baller. The size of a spider, but he can really chuck that banana through the turkey hole, man.’

    Giants themselves could also just take Murray. Murray + OBJ + Saquon would be quite the show to watch. A lot of interesting possibilities for the kid.

  22. WALL UP

    Simmons will fall out of the first round due to his torn ACL, according to Lance Zierlein’s findings.

  23. millhouse-serbia

    @dr chao

    Routine drill tearing ACL likely means no long term cartilage damage. Will be a “redshirt” draft choice for a team willing to wait for 2020 production.

    So please JS, trade back to 35-40 and take him! We used to not have first year production from rookies and Jeffery is blue chip talent.

  24. Eburgz

    If the board falls this way I’m still ok with
    J. Tillery: great size, athleticism and power.

    Can’t convince me these games are boring.

    M. Wilson: great coverage, athleticism, thumper.
    D. Jones: crazy quicks for a big man
    B. Burns: great passrushing technique and burst
    Z. Allen: big, powerful, productive
    D. Walker: sets the edge in the run game, gets after it in the last game

    Or a WR like AJ Brown/McLaurin.

    Not really tempted by value of the available prospects at QB, TE or OL. IMO DB isn’t likley & RB isn’t likley.

  25. Aaron

    ESPN article about 5 things every NFC West team needs to do this offseason…

    • SoCal12

      This was actually a pretty reasonable and solidly researched piece. Sadly I’ve come to expect most ‘listicle’ articles online these days to be clickbaity and full of hot takes. It’s nice to see ones that offer reasonable suggestions. Mo Wilkerson would definitely be the kind of budget signing PCJS pursue. It’s the kind of bargain reclamation deal for depth that we love so much. I could see all five points listed happen really.

  26. jujus

    Hey Rob.

    I just came upon Jalen Hurd from Baylor/tennessee @ WR.

    Supposedly he will be running a 4.4, at 223 6’4″

    Has only been a WR for 1 year but might have the talent to be a legit #1 WR.

    What are your thoughts on him?

    • Rob Staton

      A player who has consistently promised much and delivered very little.

      • Eli

        900 rushing yards his freshman year and 1,285 rushing yards his sophomore year at Tennessee, and nearly 1,000 receiving yards this past season at Baylor which was his first year as a receiver

        • Jujus

          Rob I dont follow cfb much outside of hawks off-season. Could u elaborate on Hurd? Seems to me to have elite athleticism, a red flag, and the position tra sfer which could make him undervalued and a prime hawk target. But I truly appreciate and value your thoughts.

          • Rob Staton

            He had a weird college career. Flipping positions, teams. He was once considered a big time prospect but it never really came together. I just don’t really get the vibe he’s someone the Seahawks will consider.

            • Sea Mode

              Kalen Ballage- ish

  27. Uncle Salty

    What exactly do you have the Jags giving the Niners to move up to #2? That would have to be a big offer to make the Niners pass on their most glaring need. If Bosa falls into the Niners lap, they would most likely sprint to the podium with his name on their draft card.

    • Rob Staton

      The Niners are reportedly very keen to move down. Bosa is good but the 49ers can move down a few spots and still get a good edge rusher.

      • Uncle Salty

        The question stands…….what would the Jags give up? How many picks do you think it would take? Would the Jags offer up Jalen Ramsey?

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t know. I’m not really concerned about what the deal would be. It’s a mock to project a scenario where San Francisco trade down (as they reportedly are determined to do) and the Jaguars trade up (because they need a QB).

  28. Coleslaw

    Figured I’d give my take on AB since everyone wants him on their team. I don’t, at all. Hes a diva. A great player, no doubt, but on the wrong half of his career, makes too much money for us, and we don’t need the distractions.
    We’re not just rebuilding the roster, we’re rebuilding the culture. We need to give young guys a shot to win a job here, and get that competitiveness back. That’s Pete Carroll. Thats why people want to play for us. That’s why guys like Sherm and Doug were able to be so good for us. We gotta light a fire under EVERYBODY’S butt.

  29. WALL UP

    It’s hard to imagine Simmons sliding past LAR, and NE out of the 1st Rd. If Simmons does fall out of the 1st Rd, where would he land?

    ARI – has (6) picks, the 1st picks in the 1st (6) Rds. They may need more picks in order to use their 2nd Rd pick on Simmons. They’d only have (4) more players to help them this year, and may not be able to afford waiting on a player until next year.

    IND – has an additional high 2nd Rd pick in addition to their regular 7 Rd picks. They could use that high 2nd Rd pick, #34, in order to select Simmons.

    OAK – This team has more valued picks than any other team in this draft. If, Simmons is not selected by them @ #27, and also SEA @ #30 traded with GB, and LAR & NE pass on him, in which is somewhat doubtful, then OAK will definitely draft him @ #35.

    Talent wise, most would agree that Simmons is a top 5 – 7 pick. So it may be hard for SEA to pass on him @ #30. But, Simmons may be the catalyst for OAK to trade back in the 1st Rd for the 4th time, and select Simmons @ #30, for their 2nd Rd & 4th Rd picks, #35 & #82 (with comp picks taken in consideration).

    Would SEA make that trade with OAK? Would you?

    • WALL UP

      My mistake. It’s 2nd Rd & 4th Rd picks, #35 & #106, not #82. The value is only 82pts for the trade down. But there is a possibility to trade down again from #35, to gain more picks.

    • Rob Staton

      I wouldn’t say it’s hard to imagine him falling past the Rams and Pats. Some teams aren’t going to want to draft a redshirt. Take the Rams. They’re a contender right now. They probably want someone who helps them win in 2019. They don’t have a R2 pick. Taking someone to spend a year on IR quite possibly isn’t in their plans.

      It’s impossible to get an angle on where he could land. Teams have drafted players in R1 coming off ACL injuries. Guys like Cedric Ogbuehi and Todd Gurley for example. Jaylon Smith had a career-threatening knee injury and still went at pick #34. Myles Jack was pick #36 after it was revealed he could only have a short career due to health.

      So I wouldn’t put it past Simmons still landing in R1. But I can also see a situation where a team who is building at the top of round two says — we’re not expecting to contend in 2019. Let’s take Simmons and in a year we’ll have another top player to add to a developing group.

      I doubt anyone will be trading up for him though.

      • WALL UP

        One team that is building, at the top of Rd 2, is OAK. They may be willing to trade back into the 1st Rd, ahead of potentially NE, who has free agent DTs that they may resign, and would be willing to have Simmons in waiting for the playoffs, or the following year.

        Then there is IND, having (2) 2nd Rd picks, who might be do likewise as NE.

        SEA could be a trading partner with OAK for Simmons, if he drops to 30. If that does occur, I’m sure there will be those opposing such trades because of the value that such a pick would produce.

        You originally had Simmons @ #11, while others had him higher. The value @ is twice that of #30. Passing over such value may be a point of contention for many following SEA draft picks. But, with so few picks, they may have no choice, but to trade down for additional picks.

        • Rob Staton

          Oakland has two late R1 picks. If they want to keep a player away from NE they will just take him there.

          • Wall Up

            Mayock would be just working the board to acquire one more 1st Rd talent @ 30 by acquiring Simmons @ 30 instead of picking him @ 27.

            They would make that trade before selecting @ 27 with the assurance that the Hawks were not going for Simmons @ 30.

            With all their picks and the rebuilding that is in process, it would be a smart move on their part.

            • Rob Staton

              Can’t see it at all

              • Wall Up

                A top 10-15 talent for a 2nd & 4th Rd picks?! Mayock & Gruden would jump all over the place to have the opportunity to get that done.

                • Rob Staton

                  It’s not as simple as that.

                  The Raiders are building a completely new team and culture and need talent right now to improve a bad roster. They might not want to draft someone who is going to sit out for a year.

                  And I’ve said this before and the point still stands. If they want him badly enough to trade back into round one — they’ll just take him at #27. They have the #24 and #27 pick. They are the last team that needs to trade back into round one.

  30. C-Dog

    Crazy trade scenario.

    Gruden wants to deal Carr and acquire a veteran QB, but he wants to make a much bigger splash than Flacco or Foles. The Raiders dangle Carr and picks 24 and 27 to Seattle for Russell Wilson. Gruden gets a splashy veteran QB in preparation for the lowly franchise to ignite anticipation with their new digs in Sin City, and basically pay RW whatever he, Ciara, and his agent wants. Seattle gets a capable starter who will be a significantly cheaper deal through 2022, and enough top end draft capital to maneuver around to improve the defense and add to the offense. Seattle also doesn’t have to burn a franchise tag on the QB as they work to retain Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark, and Jarran Reed, three core veterans in their prime who won’t come cheaply.

    This is nuts, and I almost can’t believe I’m posting this, but I will say that the Jason La Canfora report from last September stated that League GMs believe Seattle could get as much as three first round picks for RW if it came down to a trade. JLC has a bit of a connection with the Seahawks and I wonder if it is actually John Schneider himself, and their connection goes back to his days working with the Skins. I wonder, just a wee little bit, if Seattle isn’t exploring all available channels in dealing with the RW third contract dilemma and JS was the leak to JLC. Carr and two R1 picks to Seattle would be essentially three R1 picks.

    .. Nah, probably not going to happen.

    Go Hawks.

    • Rob Staton

      I think there are two key reasons why this is a non-starter…

      1. The Raiders are total cheapskates and are not going to be prepared to pay Wilson mega money.

      2. I cannot imagine any scenario where the Seahawks consider swapping Wilson for Carr, even if they get a couple of picks in return.

      I do think there’s a strong chance the Raiders trade Carr and then sign Flacco. It makes sense and would be such a Gruden type move. But it won’t be for Russell. And if the Seahawks ever deal Wilson, which I doubt, it’ll likely be for high draft picks.

      • C-Dog

        Yeah, this is what being snowed in for 8 solid days does to your mind. Go Hawks.

      • C-Dog

        Hey Rob

        On the drafting a QB front, you have laid out some solid reasoning as to why Seattle might do that this year, but I’ve kind of being struggling to come fully on board with the idea, even with some pretty well spelled out reasoning that you’ve given.

        The situation I keep envisioning is that JS wants to draft a QB of significance because that is the Ron Wolf Green Bay model, but PC is a old school defensive minded HC who doesn’t want to spend high draft capital on a QB (reportedly JS wanted to draft RW in R2 but Carroll wasn’t having it), and PC holds the veto.

        Long winded way to come to this question, but are you seeing 2019 the year they make a dive into the position because of all the tea leaves you are reading between the team and RW, or by chance do you have a bit of an inside vibe from the organization that this a direction that they feel they need to go in?

        Appreciate all that you are doing here, and keeping Seahawks football lively in the offseason. Cheers.

        • Rob Staton

          It’s definitely possible PC could veto a QB pick. He has the final say after all. But I think they would’ve been very willing to draft the right QB last year or the year before too. So 2019 isn’t so much, ‘is this the right year?’ as it is ‘this probably needs to happen now’ because the minute they end up using that first tag on Wilson the ball starts rolling towards a possible parting.

          • C-Dog

            Yeah, I’m starting to sense that the tag is something the RW camp is perfectly willing to do. Do you see an scenario where they try to fill that need with a young vet either via free agency with perhaps a Bridgewater type, or trade a la Brissett, or is the draft more likely?

            Personally, I struggle outside of Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Grier to see a QB in this draft PC might be swayed to pick early for, and if they grab Stidham, Finley, or Thorson in the mid rounds, not sure that is going to generate enough leverage for the RW camp to weigh.

            • Rob Staton

              I think the draft is most likely purely due to cost.

          • 80SLargent

            Just out of curiosity, how often do true franchise QBs switch teams?

            • Rob Staton

              Not very often clearly

  31. Greg Haugsven

    Simmons isnt going 11 now. Someone will probably draft him in the fourth and let him rehab for the whole season.

    • Rob Staton

      He’s not lasting to the fourth.

      • Hicks

        Rob, what’s your best guess the range he goes in now? It seems to vary each year how much an injury impacts draft stock. Didn’t seem to hurt Jalen Ramsey at all, or Donte Fowler.

        • Rob Staton

          It’s really hard to project at the moment. I’ve just published an article with some thoughts on it.

    • millhouse-serbia

      Sidney Jones was 2nd round pick after torn achilles. Simmons is 33-50 range pick imo.

  32. Coleslaw
    Look at the chart they made, if we really do focus on resigning players, next years comp picks will be pretty loaded. A 3rd and 4th from Earl and KJ seem likely at this point. Another reason to grab a RB out of this draft, Davis can net us a comp pick. If 2 or 3 of Davis, Coleman, Stephen, Fluker, Sweezy leaves, we would be able to sign some outside guys and probably not mess with the 3rd and 4th, since we’ll likely target 3rd wave free agents and will know the market by then.

  33. RWIII

    I don’t see Green Bay trading a away a third round pick to move up to take a pass rusher. Why would Green Bay give away a third rounder? This class is Deep with pass rushers that it makes no sense for them to move up.

    Yes. It makes perfect sense for Seattle to trade down. But if Green Bay stays @ 30 they will get a get a good pass rusher.

    The year John Schneider took James Carpenter (2011) Schneider wanted to trade down. But he couldn’t find a deal that he liked. I remember when the Hawks took Carp. Pete Carroll & John Schneider did not seem all that thrilled with their pick. Carpenter’s coach Nick Sabin was surprised that Carpenter went that high. Yes John Schneider wants to trade down. But he has to find the right deal.

    • teejmo

      Two big differences between 2011 and 2019 – the Seahawks still had seven picks going into the draft, and they still had the second round to fall back on if they wanted to make a deal for extra picks. This year, they have four, and only one before Day 3. So yes, while the “right” deal would be nice, Schneider will probably be pretty desperate for anything.

    • Rob Staton

      Are you being serious?

      The Packers literally gave up a third rounder last year to move back up having moved down originally to draft Jaire Alexander.

      They are desperate for a pass rusher it’s a major need. Yes it’s a deep class but it’s also very possible that teams will be aggressive to get to certain prospects.

  34. Pran

    I am not sold on Carr trade, especially involving #6 pick. He may net a 3rd or 4th with his salary involved.

    • Rob Staton

      There’s no way he’d only net a third or fourth. Have people forgotten Sam Bradford was traded for a R1!?

      • RWIII

        If Green Bay wants to give up a third round pick to switch with Seattle that works for me.

        Last year Seattle traded with Green Bay and received the Packers 1st, 3rd & 6th round picks. With those picks they took Rashaad Penny, Rasheem Green, and Jacob Martin. As far as I am concerned Schneider made out like a bandit. If Green Bay wants to move up again: I say amen. I will do those deals all day long.

        In 2016 John Elway traded his 1st and 3rd round picks to Seattle to move up to take Paxton Lynch. Seattle used those picks to take Ifedi (who they were going to take anyway). With the 3rd round pick they took Nick Vannett. Who finally is starting to produce for Seattle. Now Seattle has Ifedi, Vannett and Paxton Lynch. How did that deal work for Elway?

        Every year there is a team that just has to have a certain player. If these teams want to trade up. I say: Go for it.

      • Pran

        Yes, but lessons learnt. Bradford being #1 pick did not help matters.
        Dude Carr lacks focus and motivation, not a leader.

        • Rob Staton

          I never said I’m a huge Derek Carr fan (although ‘focus and motivation’ are not areas I’m worried about).

          I think it’s possible the Giants, with a need to win now not wait on the right rookie in the right draft, might trade their pick for a QB at a good age. That’s all.

      • McZ

        Well, Flacco for mid rounder, presumeably 4th. It’s a buyers market this season, too many folks around.

        • Rob Staton

          Joe Flacco is 34 and past his peak.

          Derek Carr is 27.

          The only similarity between the two is they both play QB.

  35. Trevor

    Rob I don’t get the logic of the Hawks using an early pick on a QB like Grier.

    If they are going to extend Russ then he is nothing more than a career backup who given Russ’s durability will get few if any snaps. If they think Russ is going to hard to resign then Grier would certainly not give them any leverage in negotiations with Russ. I just don’t see it.

    The only way the Hawks draft a QB early is if they plan to move on from Russ and can find a way to get Murray and that is incredibly unlikely.

    • Rob Staton

      To be fair Trevor I kind of feel like I’ve said my peace on Grier to the Seahawks and don’t want to keep repeating. If they take him their assessment of him will be a player who can start down the line. He fits their scheme well and I can see them having some interest.

  36. Georgia Hawk

    The smart move for Arizona is to take Murray at #1 and let it play out how it does. Personally, I think a more likely scenario is they trade down from #1….either Jax or NYG, whoever is more desperate to get their guy, and build in other places. If Kingsbury gets “his guy” in year 1, he significantly shortens his leash. By punting it down the road, he can see if he can work magic with Rosen, then when it doesn’t work out in a year or two he has a free pass of “Rosen wasn’t my guy, wasn’t my pick.” He can gain an extra year at least of job security.

    I’m no big fan of this, I just see it as the most likely scenario. I doubt he wants to invite QB controversy in his first year in the bigs,

  37. Largent80

    I wouldn’t forget about LB in this off season either as KJ will probably be gone and Kendricks situation is still up in the air. Calitro is not the answer nor is anyone else currently on the roster.

    Barr is going to want Wright money so the draft may focus on someone to work with Wagner.

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