With the season over following a chastening second half against the 49ers, attention will quickly turn to the off-season.
There are two key issues that need to be addressed:
— The future at quarterback
— The state of the defense
2023 should be seen as phase two of a significant rebuild that started a year ago. Making sure the Seahawks address these two areas properly will be crucial if they want to build on the success of the 2022 draft class.
Let’s start with the quarterback situation…
What are they going to do at QB?
I was a little bit confused earlier when Ian Rapaport reported that Geno Smith ‘will be back in 2023’ — noting that if needed, the Seahawks would use the franchise tag.
What is the benefit in stating this publicly?
The minute you make it clear that you’re prepared to use the franchise tag if a deal cannot be struck, negotiations begin at the price of the tag. Over the Cap estimates a tagged quarterback will cost $32.4m in 2023.
You only lose leverage by having this report in the public domain. What if they get to the combine, when all the deals are discussed for free agency on the sly, and discover Smith’s market is lower than $32.4m? If you’re already making it clear you’re going to tag him, there’s no incentive for the player’s representatives to go lower in talks.
Let’s say they do tag him. They only currently have a projected $28.1m in effective cap space for 2023. They would immediately be $4.3m over the cap, with only 37 contracted players on the roster (which would be the third fewest in the NFL).
You would have to immediately negotiate a long-term deal with Smith to lower his 2023 cap hit. The problem is — once he signs the tag, the minimum average salary on a deal would likely be the $32.4m amount. If you wanted to lower the cap hit in 2023 to, say, $18m so you can actually have some money to spend — that would simply make Smith even more expensive in future years.
Are you prepared to have Geno Smith playing on a $40-45m back-loaded cap hit in 2024 or 2025?
It’s true they can cut players to save money. Shelby Harris would save $8.9m and Gabe Jackson $6.5m. They could designate Quandre Diggs as a post-June 1st cut and save $14m. All of these players would need replacing though — and as already noted you have the third fewest players contracted for 2023.
It’s very difficult to imagine how tagging Geno Smith works financially.
Making the situation all the more confusing is the article published by ESPN’s Brady Henderson this week, which included the following paragraph:
The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.
This is the exact opposite of the Rapoport report. The line from the Henderson article is clearly sourced from the Seahawks and states if the asking price is too high, they’re willing to move on. They believe in their scheme and think there will be cheaper alternatives.
So what’s the reality here? Are they just going to negotiate and move on, relying on their QB friendly scheme if needed? Or are they making sure they keep Smith at all costs, as implied by Rapoport?
And why are mixed messages being fed to the media?
Someone might suggest they could tag Smith, continue negotiations and then if needed trade him to another team. This is extremely unlikely.
Smith never had a contract in his NFL career worth more than $1.25m a year prior to his $3.5m deal with the Seahawks this season (which included $3.5m in incentives).
He would almost certainly sign his franchise tag the minute it was applied, securing $32.4m guaranteed. That’s life-changing money. Then you are on the hook for it and can only lower the cap hit with a big extension.
Meanwhile, there’s the question over his actual play.
In the first half of the season he was being touted for MVP honours. He finished the season with six interceptions in his last six games, with a crucial fumble against the Niners and several other plays that could or should’ve led to turnovers.
There’s no doubt he has been a big net positive for the season. Yet as the team enters phase two of the rebuild it has to ask whether he’s simply a very useful bridge to the future or someone you can legitimately compete for a Championship with over the next few years.
Personally I am sceptical that he’s good enough for that. I wonder how people will view a longer spell of what we saw since the Germany game when his play tailed off a bit, once he’s suddenly earning $32.4m instead of $3.5m.
It all comes down to the draft. If the Seahawks like a player enough to take them at #5, they clearly think they’ve found a future star QB. If that player exists they should even probably consider trading up to make sure they get them.
If you can’t get to the top quarterbacks or you simply don’t rate them, it makes it a lot easier to justify paying to keep Smith and going in a different direction.
The decision of C.J. Stroud is critical. He is yet to declare for the draft and the deadline’s on Monday. If he returns to Ohio State, it would leave Will Levis, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson as the three quarterbacks likely to be drafted early. I’ve watched every single one of their college games and believe any of the trio is worth taking at #5. Yet with Houston, Indianapolis and the prospect of a team trading up to #1 — it’s possible none of the three will last to #5.
If Stroud does declare, at least one extremely talented QB will likely be there at #5.
I’ve seen several Seahawks fans suggest waiting on the quarterback and building up the roster first. That’s fine — but are you going to be picking in the top-five again any time soon?
It also needs to be said that trying to build a brilliant roster and inserting a quarterback at the last minute is actually very difficult. Finding a great quarterback can, to be fair, cover a lot of warts.
I suspect the plan when Russell Wilson was dealt was to try and draft a quarterback in 2023 with a high pick. This will be a vital decision for the franchise. They’re going to need to be bold here.
Keeping Geno Smith is fine but it has to be for the right price and drafting a quarterback for the long haul at #5 must still be a consideration.
Serious talks are needed over the defense
New scheme, new coaches, very similar results.
The Seahawks, once again, have been far too easy to play against on defense. They don’t create enough pressure. The run defense is poor. Their tackling is absolutely abysmal.
Part of the issue is a talent problem but it should also be recognised how much has been invested in this group. A first round pick on Jordyn Brooks and second round picks on Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe. The Jamal Adams trade and contract. Paying a high price to keep Quandre Diggs. Poona Ford had the biggest cap hit in 2022 and Uchenna Nwosu is the most expensive outside free agent in the Carroll/Schneider era.
It’s still lacking, especially in the front seven. But even if you’re starting eleven street free agents, you wouldn’t expect the tackling to be as consistently rotten as it’s been.
Seattle gave up 505 yards against the Niners. This has become a trend and not just against an impressive Kyle Shanahan offense.
Carroll, Schneider and Jody Allen should be prepared to sit down in a room and have a serious meeting about this. Call it crisis talks if you want. The defense has been so bad for so long. Without proper action — will anything change?
Is the scheme right? A handful of teams have adopted the Vic Fangio concepts and all have struggled to varying degrees. It seems without the main man in charge, it’s very hard to copy his defense (or at least copy the success he’s enjoyed).
Watch this video for more on the way Fangio-inspired systems have toiled recently.
There’s no point drafting and signing players for the wrong scheme. Establishing whether you’re on the right track should be a top priority.
Is Clint Hurtt good enough to be defensive coordinator? He has been promoted through Seattle’s coaching system but what has he actually been able to hang his hat on over the years?
A proper review of his performance is necessary. Yes — you want to give coaches time and it would be harsh to part ways after one season with the defense needing a talent injection. Just as it’s important to have the right scheme though, it’s equally vital to have the right man at the controls.
Why is the tackling so bad and why has this become a recurring issue? This is a massive priority and something needs to change.
How and why is this team so often bullied up front? Is it just down to talent?
Why has the defense looked really bad at the start of each of the last five seasons? It’s almost become something everyone just accepts these days. The defense starts horribly then improves. This shouldn’t be acceptable year after year. You don’t need to look like the ’85 Bears in week one but you shouldn’t look like the 2020, 2021 or 2022 Seahawks either.
What is the best way to add talent? Is it through the draft or do they need to invest in free agency? After all, while it’s been great to see Tariq Woolen excel — there are too many rookies (Boye Mafe the latest example) who are either struggling to have an impact early in their careers or they are simply giving up major snaps to much older veterans.
What’s the point, for example, in drafting Jalen Carter at #5 if he ends up being spelled all the time with Quinton Jefferson or Shelby Harris getting the bulk of the snaps?
The final question is the most important. How much responsibility should Pete Carroll hold for his defense looking so bad for so long?
They’ve changed coaches (including trying three different coordinators), schemes and personnel. They’ve made big trades and spent lots of draft capital. Carroll is the one constant here. Serious questions need to be asked about his role in failing to address how bad his defense has been in the years since the end of the LOB era in 2017.
Watching the Seahawks play defense has been quite painful at times during this period. That was especially the case this year. Hoping a few draft picks and a year of experience will solve the problems would be complacent. This is not working. It has not worked for a number of years.
Some harsh words should be shared and some big decisions taken. Everything should be on the table, too.
They’ve won one playoff game in six seasons. That should be acknowledged and treated with genuine concern. Their only three playoff wins since the New England Super Bowl are the Blair Walsh game in frozen Minnesota, a win against the Lions at home and a victory against the Eagles where they had to insert a 40-year-old backup QB into the game in the first quarter.
I’d suggest you won’t win many playoff games in the future either with the defense playing the way it has been over the years.
The Seahawks cannot be here again in 12 months asking the same questions about the same defensive issues. Brutality is required to sort this out.
If you missed our live stream discussing the 49ers game and the off-season ahead, check it out here:
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)
it doesn’t matter what the defensive scheme is, if you don’t tackle. If the seahawks tag Geno, we know who is still calling the shots. we need fresh new d coordinator, that Pete won’t interfere with (I know that won’t happen) I hope Pete retires.
Agreed. I hope Pete retires too
I had to turn off the game in the beginning of the fourth quarter. It was like having your dog put to sleep, I couldn’t watch. Nobody on the defense can tackle and no one can get off blocks. Bruce Irvin is out there getting mauled on every run play. Cody Barton takes the scenic route to the ball carrier.
There should be no doubt about DK or K9 though, those guys are legit.
Watched the stream and halway through a thought occurred to me related to this site.
Rob. You’ve done a remarkable job breaking down the traits this team (Pete’s team) looks for.
Admirable work. Length, wingspan, three cone, TEF.
Then Robbie mentioned Kancey and I thought:
None of this is working anymore. And frankly it would be amazing to have the whole field opened up again where we don’t automatically dismiss players by type and a whole host of new ideas and players could be monitored.
An example. Nothing against Waldron per se but my taste for olinemen is maulers not smaller finesse guys. Or dlinemen who look awesome but not dismiss them outright due to fractional shortness in arm length.
Agree completely…
No clarity on anything Seahawks-related until the issue of Pete’s future is decided and I’m 94% certain that he wants to run it back again, even though right now is the perfect time to say, “I made my point, see ya.”
I’d like to ask, who do the Seahawks currently have on their coaching staff that other teams would love to poach? Anyone?
I’m somewhat heartened by the idea that JS has claimed some or most of the GM duties and seems responsible for the draft now. Maybe if Jody gave JS final say over the coaching staff, Pete would hang it up. Somebody call Jody and tell her to give JS final say over staff. Let’s see what happens.
Thanks for another season, Rob. I look forward to what should be the most interesting Seahawks’ draft in quite a while.
(My preference at 5: Levis, Stroud, Richardson, Bijan.)
His press conference was interesting. No great talk of how they’re just getting started or anything like that, he just looked really pissed off and fed up.
Rob, respectfully, if the Hawks hypothetically wanted to draft a QB with their 5th pick. Wouldn’t it make sense to leak to the media that they are 100% franchise tagging Geno if they can’t get a long term deal done? Otherwise teams could trade ahead of them and take “their guy”. Just a thought, they’ve done plenty of media smokescreens in the past.
Well no, because you’d have to tag Geno Smith nearly two months before the draft begins
“I hope so”
That was Pete Carroll’s answer to the media after being asked whether Geno is the QB next season. Am I reading too much into this? Doesn’t strike me as a typical Pete answer.
Exactly. These guys love playing mind games with the media. Just look at the manipulation Pete was trying to do to the 9ers this week that Sherm referred to with Acho.
Eerily similar to “no intention” of trading Russ. And a consistent good cop, bad cop roleplay with PC and JS respectively.
I think they were planning on having the 3rd pick and are trying to cause as much headache as possible for teams guessing what they are going to do.
So you are suggesting they’ll trade up?
No, I think they have a guy in mind, could be Levis or Carter for example. And if they don’t fall to #5 they try to trade down. I think they end up extending Geno at around 3 year 70m 45mill GTD, but it may not happen until after the draft. He’s been late to sign pretty consistently, but he also has never been due for a payday like this.
He looked very awkward answering it too
Pete was very positive at the end of the season for both Clark and Clowney that they would be re-signed.
Rob, where is Sean Desai amidst this Defense? I mean he is the “Associate Head Coach-Defense”.
I have commented a few times about his overall influence on the weekly defensive game plan, or asking what everyone here thinks of his overall fingerprint on this defense.
I mean there is no media interaction for all I know, I personally feel like he is the forgotten man in this defensive scheme because I feel like we truly do not know his overall influence.
This was seen as a big change in regards to his hiring, a sign that Carroll was possibly handing the defensive reigns over to his coaches.
He has also been contacted by the Browns for an interview.
Any ways, just looking for your opinion on Desai since he’s one of the coaches who is discussed in regards to scheme impact.
The biggest problem continues to be the Adams contract. Adams stands a good chance at ending up being both the worst trade in Hawks history AND the worst contract signing. So unfortunate that they don’t have that $20 million in each of the next two years to use in other ways. Just a gargantuan mistake that may keep this iteration of the Hawks from reaching its potential, especially if they have another great draft in ‘23..
🦚
Given the notion that Pete Carroll is a defensive minded coach and oversaw one of the greatest defenses in history the legion of boom, won one and should have won back to back super bowls, and as noted have spent considerable resources and found hidden gems that have contributed recently our three rookie dbs and given the fact that the defense performance ultimately falls to Pete I can only draw two conclusions. Either Pete gives too much control to his assistants to game plan and scheme, or has Pete lost an edge over that aspect of the game, the game has passed him by? Having not read the link it’s ponderous that the fangio scheme has been adopted and struggled. Does that also explains the poor tackling?
The offense has most all the right pieces only needing a modest talent infusion perhaps at a few spots.
The defense needs so much up front. I’m not sure that will be sufficient though as the defensive coaching performance appears to have lost its way. Hard to see that getting better without a coaching change. On the other hand, adding a few pieces on defense through the draft and seeing some improvement in year two of the rebuild might embolden the Carroll supporters and prove that the team is headed in the right direction. Another draft like last year can accomplish that. Otherwise next year will definitely be carrols last unfortunately.
Was it Pete or Dan Quinn, Quinn is still fielding top 3 defenses in this league
His Falcons teams were pretty bad at defense though
Still got a team to the Super Bowl though.
Think Shanahan might have a say in how Atlanta had a great season in 2016….
He might have had a say in how they only scored 7 points the entire second half of the Super Bowl they lost as well. Football is the ultimate team sport. Can’t just give and take credit to one side as you see fit.
Unfortunately, this team needs an influx of talent defensively. During the LOB error, they could leave the same players on the field in both early downs and passing downs. They maybe brought in a nickel corner for one linebacker. Now we have to bring in Mone & Woods for early downs, Harris & Jefferson for passing. Take out Irvin for Taylor. Coby for Barton. Other teams know our weaknesses, base on the personnel. Teams like the 49ers are able to keep same personnel on the field for all downs; maybe substituting and extra DB occasionally.
Cam and Earl could both cover and tackle. Diggs can cover, can’t tackle. Adams can tackle, can’t cover. Not sure if you can fix everything in one off season, but I hope that a personnel guy can come in and make the tough decisions that need to be made. I don’t have confidence in the current regime.
Adams can only tackle if someone else gets the initial hit
I think we reached the most we could have expected with this team this year: a sneak in the playoffs although our game didn’t really grant it and a first and out there, against a team that’s built to win. The problem is, I don’t have the perspective of any improvement. I fear we’re gonna make an insignificant change at coaching, sign some expensive average aging free agents who won’t bring much (Reed anyone?), take the excuse of Adams being injured and start him over just to see him another injury first chance he’s got. We need a substantial improvement of the D to be able to compete for anything, and it’s both a matter of players and system. We should seriously consider moving away from Brooks. We should stop paying so much for the safeties. If we choose to improve the Dline via free agency, make a big move instead of getting Quinton Jefferson and Benson Mayowa.
And we won’t win anything with Geno Smith (or Drew Lock). He might do just enough to get us into the playoffs again but we’ll crash hopelessly. I could imagine keeping him for 10 mil a year as a backup, anything beyond that is bye-bye and draft a QB. We should aim for winning the Super Bowl, not for this year after year of making it to the playoffs and losing first game.
“What is the benefit in stating this publicly?”
Addressing your question on the benefit behind stating publicly Smith will be back, this is a feeler, a tactic used to gauge whether Geno wants to be back. And based on all the reporting in the last hour about Geno saying he now wants to end his career in Seattle, as a negotiating tactic to get Geno to publicly address where he stands to the press, it worked.
Any ground you think had been ceded to Geno he just gave back in magnanimous fashion. That’s something you say only if you’re willing to take a below market deal to come back.
It’s also exactly what the hawks had wanted to hear. They wanted to to know if Geno will be negotiating in good faith that he wants to stay. He’s signaling here that he is.
But will the hawks be negotiating in good faith with him? Could you see a scenario where they max out a hometown discount with Geno on good faith and still draft a QB with their first pick?
It would be in good faith if they tell him that’s what will happen, as I’m sure they would.
I don’t think you need to cede all leverage though to gauge whether he wants to be back
They haven’t ceded any leverage. Geno’s agent is already feeling the market and Schneider will know what’s out there too. How many times have we witnessed guys who don’t have a true market take on Schneider, hold out even, and then sign. If Geno doesn’t have $30m+ offers out there Schneider won’t tag him.
But I’m betting that a) the way Geno played, b) his leadership and team-first attitude, and c) so many teams with so much worse QB rooms and desperate gm’s, means Geno already knows he’ll be getting $35m+ and Schneider knows it too, hence the tag innuendos
I almost spit out my coffee at your last sentence.
If they give Geno 35 million a year that will be the exact moment in time when we realize that the problem with the team isn’t a battle between JS or Pete but rather it’s both guys do not know what they are doing.
There is no world where Geno is worth 35 million.
Geno’s second half of the season was mediocre to bad.
Unpopular take…..the really good showing on offense for a few game stretch mid-season had more to do with K9 than Geno.
Geno is extremely efficient. He is a great story. I actually hold hope the team puts on their thinking caps and gets him for a significantly more realistic number.
But geno smith’s ceiling is Alex Smith. Very solid, dependable, but is not going to put the team on his shoulders and take them to the promised land.
And I know this because Seattle had nearly all it’s offensive starters play nearly every game last year and we still got trapped by the entire nfc South, the raiders, and played a pointless squeaker of a game against a junior varsity rams to wrap up the year. Oh and the niners laid the wood on us every single time they could.
Well, thank god that’s over with and we can all settle in for the Senior Bowl, combine, pro days and the actual draft.
This season has been exhausting for so many reasons.
The dread of an abysmal record…that turned into a winning record…that turned into an embarrassment in the playoffs, once again.
The QB competition between two backup QBs that fizzled as soon as Lock got Covid…turning into a Pro Bowl year for Geno and a possible cap busting contract.
An exciting new defensive scheme to get our hopes up..only to be garbage once again.
The firing of Ken Norton and the excitement of some new, fresh face at DC…turning into another one of Pete’s cronies.
A massive contract extension for DK…and he still acts like a petulant child who disappears for stretches.
A cake walk, cream puff schedule…that turned into a grind it out season.
Jason Myers back in near perfect form…and needs a new contract.
Cody Barton the starter…I got nothin to add to that.
Diggs the Pro Bowler…who is NOT a Pro Bowler.
Jamal Adams…again, I got nothin to add to that.
Boye Mafe drafted…so he can sit on the bench while a 35 year old Bruce Irvin gets a few sacks and consistently loses containment like a Chernobyl reactor.
Making the pass rush a priority…only to not have it be a priority, AGAIN.
Rashaad Penny…yup, you guessed it, I got nothin to add to that.
God I want Pete Carroll to retire. I cannot go another year staring at his open-mouthed gaze on the sideline, and making statements at the podium, like “We have to find a way to get Boye more snaps”.
Fin.
Lot of inconvenient truths spoken here 💯
Nailed a ton of it.
Low key sign that Pete is done and dusted…
Bruce Irvin.
Stats:
10 starts. 3.5 sacks. 5 tfl’s. 54% of snaps.
Boye Mafe.
Stats.
3 starts. 3 sacks. 3 tfls. 37% of snaps.
There is no reason why Irvin should have received one snap more than Mafe continuing a long, long, long trend of not developing the supposedly important need of “improved pass rush.” Pete literally does not know how to achieve his own goals anymore.
Perfect, and a good deal of this could’ve been written after the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons with a few name changes.
It’s just the same questions and discussions year after year
The only difference this year is there’s the distraction of the Broncos draft picks
That’s exactly why I’m so negative. Yet another year of a QB masking the same problems only to be told, “we are close. Hold the line.”
Also – I find this team to be rather boring to watch. Very little is exciting.
I agree on them being boring
Spot on post Roy.
“…loses containment like a Chernobyl reactor” would’ve been very funny if it wasn’t so true.
The Fangio defense doesn’t seem to be the problem, given that it’s the same issues that have plagued the Seahawks even with their Pete Carroll defense, it’s probably the personnel/coaching staff. Fangio defense is probably just part of the problem. Could they bring KNJ back as LB coach? His defenses always tackled well (though not sure how much of that is Wagner/Wright vs Brooks/Barton)
Also something felt different about this Pete Carroll presser compared to old, he just seems super frustrated with this team (says it from the get go).
Pete Carroll seems like a fan of the team in his reactions, he seems heartbroken and really thought they would’ve won this game. In my opinion Carroll seems smart enough to not have his team make these mistakes, I feel like he might be giving assistant coaches too much power (but he hires similar people admittedly)
Yes it’s been a better season than we hoped for playoffs wise, but I do think PC should view this as his final season here.
He’s made the playoffs without RW3. He should go put on this high.
Let someone else take it on from here. With last year’s star draft class and the great picks this year thanks to the RW trade PC can ride off saying He’s left the teams future in good shape.
Short of winning a Superbowl – which I can’t see us doing next 2/3 years because of no D – then this is his next best hurrah.
Rob made a great point in the post game pod that it probably shouldn’t be Pete selecting or even coaching this gift of a haul in draft stock for the future.
Do we ever see the Seahawks give exotic blitz looks. I don’t think so. Even if Pete Carroll isn’t a big blitzer, blitzing can be something you do smart rather than do often, just like running the ball. Even teams like the niners who can consistently get home with 4 give Amoeba/Radar, overload, and sim looks. We can do more to build one on ones for our edge rushers, especially on third down.
First of all: Thank you Rob and all the other contributors on this site like Curtis for another amazing coverage of the season. This site is always so ahead of the curve, no ESPN or any other sports site comes even close to the knowledge and analysis you are getting here. I found this site in the draft year of Kyler Murray when nobody besides Rob was saying he goes at #1. It always feels like all the other medias catch up months later. The Clowney trade, the possibility of dealing Russ. You read it here first. Amazing. Looking forward to the offseason now. Will be interesting to see when all the others start to realize that we want to draft a QB at #5 (when every other mock i read not even considers this right now)
Regarding the defensive issues: As long as Pete is the headcoach, nothing will change. You can hire Fangio himself as the DC. He will never have full control even when he can call all the plays. He will always have to work within that bend dont break philosophy which eliminates a lot of possibilities in the scheme.
So what to do: Pete should just call it a day and a new DC should finally have full control over the general philosophy and the scheme of the defense. No more patchwork and mixing of different ideas. Give the new DC a chance to show what HE wants to do. This would also mean no yessayers like Norton or Hurtt (sorry Clint but do what you do best and that is not being a DC. We need a mastermind not a cheerleader and motivator). Giving the job to Desai with full control would work for me. But only under a new HC.
Personal wise we need a lot of talent as well. A defense that starts Cody Barton would struggle in the german football league and im not even joking. And Rob is right that we already invested a lot without getting the output (although i disagree on Uchenna. Yes he is the highest paid free agent in the Pete era, but making 9,5 AAV in todays league is nothing so that was a amazing value signing. Sam Hubbard makes more money).
So we have to invest in the defense after #5. Please cut Diggs and his ridiculous contract. Send Barton to taka tuka land. Find a system where Adams can be best (Deathbacker in Nickel packages. I thought you could see that he can be a net positive for us in that 1 game this season, unfortunately he went down). Invest in the trenches. We need a NT, another DE besides Shelby, 2 LB, another corner and a deep safety to play with Neal and Adams (in his best role). More importantly, we need speed and sure tackling. I cant watch another season where we can stop them in the backfield on a 3rd and 8 but 3 guys whiffing turns into another 1st down.
Anyways looking forward to the offseason (hopefully starting with a Pete retirement). And I know which site I will use to get by far the best informations on the prospects in this draft. We can fix this defense. Just need the right people calling the shots
I’ve never seen a single thing that warrants Desai as DC material. Fine if I’m proved wrong. Chicago wasn’t anywhere near good let alone great when he was there. Then here in Seattle…..still nothing.
Good for him if he goes to Cleveland.
Re: Adams.
I legitimately think he will never be a factor again. I don’t know the injury history of every single player that has ever played. But he has too many years in a row of not finishing seasons.
Having multiple surgeries on the same should does not make for a long career in the NFL.
I agree, Peter.
Adams body is broken down. Expecting to ever get more than a handful of games out of him is foolish.
He’s such a unique player (that requires unique useage), that it’s difficult to imagine him just “fitting in” to whatever defense we are running, going forward, as well.
🦚
In addition to the many cogent comments expressed above, re: our various needs-I’d sure like to see at least one major addition to our interior O-line (a la Van Pran, for example)!
Give me Van Pran and end this long nightmare of experiments, multi positional, light in the loafers centers. This is American football and as much as things change one constant for the entirety of the game’s lifespan is winning in the trenches.
The most frustrating aspect of drafting Eskridge over a Center, is that now we need to spend resources on both a WR *and* a Center.
We are now hoping that The Seahawks spend a very high pick (late 1st or early 2nd) on a fricking center…and also thinking that could be the range to pick up a receiver to develop.
It sure would be nice to have the Center position already addressed…but it is what it is.
Good call.
I do want to see a third reciever.
Wild that with this draft stock it’s still a puzzle trying to fit in needs/wants with spotty areas all over the roster.
Lb’s? When do they address that, FA I suppose.
Rb….? Third round? Fourth round? Not at all?
Does a center upgrade and maybe a RG in free agency make Walker and Dallas more dynamic.
There are so many whiffs at QB’s in the top 10. Many or most of whom were consensus guys. For every Josh Allen who suddenly comes into his own and leverages all that talent, there are the rest: Trubisky Trey the other Allen Jones Darnold Mayfield Wilson and going back farther, at least 20 busts. While that can be said of most positions as well, do you risk your first #5 pick in decades on a QB you have to develop? Why not trade down and get 6 picks in the top 50 or a couple addl in 2024, and pick up lower floor “best available” positional players?
Because Smith clearly outplayed all of the above, and most or all of the above were touted like this year’s crop.
You have to develop every single player. Walker needs development, Woolen needs development, Cross and Lucas and so on. The thing is, Smith can’t develop anymore. That’s his ceiling, fumble in the playoffs. It doesn’t make a difference if you draft a QB this year or next year, sooner or later you have to develop one. Why not do it in a year when you have more options cause you pick higher? Next year you might end up picking in the 15-20 range, and 4 QBs are already gone before you have a chance.
And I really hope you accidentally put Wilson there, Smith hasn’t outperformed him by no means. Wilson won a Super Bowl and marked a generation for Seattle.
He means Zach Wilson
Every time I read a comment like this, my heart sinks.
1. There have been more hits at QB than the D-line in the top-10 over the last few years. Defense is not some magical ‘sure thing’ unit to draft for. It is not more likely to produce a ‘hit’ than at QB.
2. Six of the top-10 performing QB’s this year were top-10 picks (and that doesn’t include Justin Herbert). In the top-10 sackers of 2022, only two were drafted in that range and multiple were drafted outside of R1 completely.
3. You don’t base draft decisions on ‘this totally unrelated player could be another Trubisky’. You judge every player on his own merits. Which is why I fought all the talk of drafting a 2022 QB early and gave them all third round grades. This year, there are four players worth drafting at #5 and none of them look like Mayfield or Darnold. Two of them do look like Allen and Herbert though.
4. Can we PLEASE stop referring to drafting a quarterback, the most important individual position in world sport, as a bloody RISK. Especially when the alternative for most fans seems to be drafting a defensive tackle who is knackered playing more than 40% of snaps at Georgia or a Clemson pass rusher who was literally benched to start two games because of his poor play, including being run all over by Notre Dame.
Your response requires some more work for me to answer (research). I’ll be back with that as soon as I can, but, I’ll see your #5 QB pick if you’ll agree to make that pick in the same fashion that SF did (Trey but keeping Garoppalo) and Green Bay did (twice, Rodgers under Fabre and Love under Rodgers). In other words, alongside Geno. I’m with you as to the importance of the position, just seems reckless to have a Geno and nonetheless push in all the chips.
But since Seattle does have Geno, there’s another plausible outcome to consider, if you’ll allow me the time to do the work. Be back soon.
Why do I need to agree to that?
If Geno is affordable I’d keep him. If he isn’t I am moving on.
If the QB is ready to start week one I start him. If he isn’t I won’t.
Are you seriously trying to compare the Geno Smith situation to Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre in GB. Please tell me I am reading this wrong. Even Jimmy G took the team to an SB. Please tell me I am misunderstanding your point.
“But since Seattle does have Geno”. No they don’t. He’s a free agent. He can play anywhere he wants next season unless Seattle franchise tags him. Seattle doesn’t have him unless they’re willing to pay him as much or more than any other team that wants him.
As for drafting a player to sit a year behind Geno. that’s not some revelation. It’s been a talking point on the blog for months. yes, there merit to the idea IF the player drafted needs it and IF Geno can be retained at a reasonable price.
OK I’m back — not that anyone was holding their breath…
…to discuss further the three main points I think are legitimately on Pete and Schneider’s minds, although I can tell many of you won’t agree with this direction. What are the three main points:
1. There’s an argument for getting to (and winning) the Superbowl without a Top 10 draft pick QB — which is to build a strong team around a competent QB. Not dissimilar to the ass-kicking we just took from Mr. Irrelevant. Important in that discussion to acknowledge that more likely than not, you will not end up with a franchise QB with your top 15 pick.
2. If you have a top 15 QB right now, or top 10, you have the luxury of picking and grooming rather than all-or-nothing and suffering through the 2-4 yrs it may take a QB to develop.
3. The #5 pick is extremely valuable to teams in “QB Death Valley” (which Seattle is not in). Perhaps that pick can be turned into alot of value not just for one player but for a range of players, to increase the likelihood that pick adds real value the franchise — because missing on a draft pick happens on a position player as well, maybe even more so.
So to discuss the points:
1. Can win a SB w/o a top 10-drafted QB : Yes, in fact over the past 10 yrs only 3 SB winners had a Top 10 drafted QB — four if you count Stafford, but since he was acquired via trade, isn’t relevant to our debate of “spend a #5 pick on a QB”. Detroit did, and never got close to a SB. You have to build a team. Our own 2013 Seahawks are evidence of this — unless anyone wants to argue that Wilson was why Seattle won. And anyway, he was pick #75 so….
And relatedly, the odds are not good that you’ll find a true franchise QB (eg materially better than Geno) at #5. This was one of the data points I mentioned I needed to research, but out of the blue Seaside Joe (Kenneth Arthur) provided exactly what I was going to search myself. Caveat: he doesn’t defend taking a QB at #5, nor not taking a QB at #5 — just points out it’s most likely going to be a “miss”. Here’s the evidence, all QB’s taken in the Top 15 over the past 10 yrs:
2012: Andrew Luck, RGIII, Tannehill
2013: None
2014: Bortles
2015: Winston, Mariota
2016: Goff, Wentz
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson (they have to be good AND able to keep their pants on)
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen
2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Haskins
2020: Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Mac Jones
2022: None
How many of these would this group be glad they took? And if you discard the #1 picks (Seattle isn’t getting that luxury), how many of these QB’s would this group be glad they took? Or said another way, how many of these would this group take over Geno Smith? The fact is: you are way more likely to strike out than hit it out of the park at #5. And given this is a Pete Carroll team, you aren’t going to get another shot at a #5 — even this year it’s not his pick. So choose wisely….or, to jump to where I’m headed in Point #3, get more value out of this pick from teams who a) don’t have a Geno Smith, and b) will bet the farm to take this shot of 7 out of 26 (including the #1 picks).
If Seattle didn’t have Geno, I’d be with Rob and would take the gamble on this pick for a QB, it’s that important — on this we agree. But, Seattle does have Geno even if that means $32m for the tag.
2. If you are going to take a QB at #5, do it with Geno as air cover. There’s a way to make the cap work, or at least SF and GB and KC have demonstrated it can be done, and certainly their overall team strength hasn’t suffered from it, albeit the $50m to Rodgers may prove to be too much. But we’re not talking $50m and Geno’s maturity, his work habits, and his leadership style will be invaluable to a young Levis or Richardson or whoever you may get at #5.
3. But since you do have Geno, why not try to repeat the 2022 draft impact and further build the foundation of this team? Is everyone aware of how valuable that #5 pick is for desperate teams (which Seattle is not), and what the outcome could be in the alternate scenario which is what I think we should be asking ourselves. To that end, I did my very first mock draft using PFN’s site because it allows trade offers (and as you would expect, Seattle got 6 offers). To be transparent, I also selected for Chicago bc otherwise the site was making Chicago’s selection and Chicago’s not going to go #1 with Paris Johnson or Quentin Johnston — they’re going to get a king’s ransom and sure enough I accepted Indy’s offer and traded down to #4 (they took Bryce Young).
To make this simple, I traded down twice because surprisingly, once you get past at most 10 picks, there’s quite a fall-off. And I had too many goals for this draft to cover with just one pick in the top 10. My goals were:
– another edge (even though Seattle surprisingly ended up #11 in sacks for the year)
– strengthen the DL
– either a 3rd WR or a kick-ass TE to have three legitimate threats
– get replacements for guys who are going to have to go bc of the cap (Dissly and Adams), bc we need Geno
– get a goddam center for once, who will also make the guard play improve which will also help the tackles (god I miss Max Unger….)
– get a LB who can tackle
So, here’s what we got by having the #5 pick and using it for two trades:
– Tyree Wilson edge (we keeo Nwosu in my feeble cap management plan, but we don’t keep Irvin)
– Michael Mayer TE (who enables the Dissly release/trade for cap purposes and bc he’s never healthy) and is the closest thing to Mark Andrews in this draft
– JL Skinner SS who I REALLY wanted (traded up to get him) bc he can fucking tackle and he lets us release Adams w/ one of our two post June 1 designations to create add’l cap space
– Calijah Kancey DL who I also really wanted even though I could have had Bresee earlier (but his work ethic scares me, so does Carter’s by the way), and allows us to release Quentin Jefferson for cap savings (or Shelby Harris if there’s no other way)
– Sedrick Van Pran C — was patient and got one of my two favorite centers (Schmitz went 5 picks earlier)
– Tommy Eichenberger LB — can fucking tackle, hard-nosed lunchpail guy
– Jared Hall QB — he was sitting there in Rd 4 and although I know he’s old, thought it was worth the risk and maybe better than Lock bc of less brain farts.
– Nick Broeker OG — Although I think a good center immediately makes our guard play better, wanted another guard bc I think we’re done with Gabe Jackson and/or Phil Haynes
– Jaylon Jones CB — bc what is a Seattle draft without a tall corner in the 5th round
– Ainias Smith WR — our last pick, best player available
And we got Green Bay’s #1 and #2 picks in 2024, was part of the trade for #5 — we got their #15, their #45, their #78 and 2024 #1 and #2. Hated to trade inside the conference (they took Quentin Jefferson which was a fantastic selection), 2nd best was Atlanta whose 2024 picks would have been more valuable but were offering substantially less this year.
Anyway, a draft class this strong with two #1’s, and two #2’s in 2024, even if both are in the 20’s and the 50’s, can mean 2022-2024 are the years where Seattle builds back to being a monster WITHOUT a string of losing seasons and perhaps even in the playoffs all three years, perhaps deep into the playoffs in 2024. This could not have been accomplished without trading out of #5.
Alternatively, we could have had Will Levis or Anthony Richardson — and Rob for sure will KILL me for having passed on both. I respect that, and he may be right. But I sure like this hand we’ve had dealt to us; we can do it with our cap space and the difficult cuts I’ve suggested; and I’d be enormously excited to be entering 2023 with this team led by Geno Smith.
The first 5 picks are Day 1 starters although perhaps Kancey rotates equally with Harris Ford and Woods but in (not LJ though, he’s gone along with Jefferson — and Mone unless Woods decides to retire).
And Eichenberger gives us another LB option given we don;t know when Brooks will be back, and at what speed.
The one thing I’m disappointed in, is we didn’t get an RB out of a good RB class — but Penny coming back and DJ Dallas maybe covers us there, esp with improved line play given Van Pran and our tackles now having a full year under their belts.
This takes years of elite drafting, then you have to find a QB from nowhere and/or you need an elite offensive coach from Kyle Shanahan. Too often I think people mistake this route for being easier than simply getting a great QB and them covering a ton of warts, as the top guys clearly do.
The best way to not end up in QB death valley is to re-sign Geno and draft a talented quarterback for the future to develop behind him.
Nobody should be judging the decision to take a QB in the top-10 based on who wins the Super Bowl. It should be purely judged on the players actually in the draft and their talent and potential to be great and ‘potentially’ win you a SB one day. That’s it.
Because plenty of brilliant picks have been spent on QB’s who never won a SB. Those teams got close though when they otherwise wouldn’t have done.
Using one team (Lions) as an example and then highlighting Seattle won with Wilson is asinine. Seattle had arguably the best defense ever. Good luck re-creating that. And the Lions being trash wasn’t anything to do with drafting QB’s early.
You can literally do this for every position.
What’s the answer? Never draft anyone?
And people act like bad teams drafting QB’s and then expecting said QB to turn around said bad teams is easy. Far easier to bust in that situation if you’re a QB. The Seahawks are not in that position.
I never suggested otherwise.
I’ve always pitched Geno as a bridge.
Because you’ll not be picking fifth overall again any time soon with a cool QB class staring you in the face — plus Geno is 33 this year, tailed off in the second half of the season and it’s not unfair to think he’ll never win you a Super Bowl.
Rob thanks for taking the time to respond when I know you have to dedicate so much time to your research and so many other responders. I really appreciate it.
Just a few clarifications:
– I didn’t realize you were in agreement with signing Geno and selecting a QB at #5, bc of what signing Geno is going to cost. Is why I didn’t explore how to solve that cap issue (a #5 pick in and of itself is a cap burden, in addition to Geno’s contract). But that’s good to know and sort of comforting too cuz I agree it’s the best way to bring on a new talent at QB.
– last year’s stellar draft class is the reason I think it’s maybe in the cards to go with the “strong team” strategy instead of a QB at #5. Can end up with two R1 picks, 3 R2 picks plus two 1’s and two 2’s in 2024. Meaning 2025 is the year. Bc as you say, it takes more than one or even two draft classes to field a SF (agree our 2013 team is perhaps too much of a dream). Also, it’s the way to get out of two big cap problems with talented young replacements (Jamal and Dissly have to be cut this year).
– and no of course I’m not suggesting don’t draft anyone, but if that #5 pick gets you still a top 15 rd 1, an extra 2, an extra 3 in 2022, and an extra 1 and 2 in 2024, that’s 5 high picks instead of 1. Maybe you miss on two but you hit on three? Odds are better and you’re solving several of the many problems Seattle needs to solve including the aforementioned cap problems from the Jamal and Dissly contracts. Again, looking to be back in the playoffs in 2024 but going for the brass ring in 2025.
– As to Geno never winning a Super Bowl, of course you may be right. But, if this “strong team” strategy gives him another 0.5 secs in the pocket and another 0.5 yds per carry; if he gets a legit 3rd option either at WR or TE; and if the defense doesn’t require 24pts/game from him to win
I’m officially getting grumpy with the qb talk.
Rob already broke down the stats/draft order for this year’s top qbs.
I already nerded out and broke down overall superbowl winning qbs and their respective draft order.
The majority of superbowl winning qbs going back to ’78 were first round picks. The majority of them were top ten.
There are a handful of qbs in all the other rounds to win ONE ring. There is not a preponderance of post first round qbs with multiple rings.
There are NO more busts for QB than any other position in the top of the draft. It might seem that way for two reasons: there are more qbs taken than any other position -or- because the collective “we,” remembers the names of Baker Mayfield more so over Solomon Thomas per example….or Sam Bradford might be the reason the rookie pay scale exists.
Here are the numbers for first round vs other rounds since 78
First number is first round, second is other
Overall: 24-20
Years 78-87: 7-3
Years 88-97: 5-5
Years 98-07: 5-5
Years 08-17: 5-5
Years 18-22: 2-2
The two biggest winners are Brady (7) and Montana (4) both not selected in the first round. However a bunch of very high picks with multiple winners: Bradshaw (had 4 total two prior to 78), Plunkett, Aikman, Manning X2, Elway.
SB wins shouldn’t be the determining factor though
It should be whether a player is deemed a good pick or not
Sorry Rob.
The metric is superbowls. I love a good player. Love a great player.
But I would bet anything Jim Kelly would trade all his appearances and losses for one ring.
I’m looking at pick five due to rarity, hopeful talent, and per the argument against early qbs as the data pretty clearly shows that unless you drafted Montana or Brady, a first round qb has or had more rings.
It’s a bad metric for success as a QB. I don’t see how anyone could make the argument with a straight face. In what world does someone prefer Dilfer to Marino?
You can’t judge player/pick success, or QB success, on whether they win a Super Bowl.
Dan Marino isn’t a bad draft pick because he never won a Super Bowl
Philip Rivers wasn’t a bad draft pick
etc.
Thanks for this.
So 24-20
With an eye popping 10!! From two players that are legends.
No problem! Was intrigued by your comment so wanted to look it up. Interesting stuff.
Yeah … 11 SBs between two legends out of 20. I don’t think there was another 2 time winner out of the non firsts.
It’s not either a QB or some other position player at #5. That #5 pick position is very valuable to a team that doesn’t have a Geno Smith — do a mock draft and see what you’ll get offered (I had offers from 6 teams). You can trade down (twice even) and add high picks in 2023 and in 2024. Could all of those add’l picks be busts? Yes. But your chances are better that you’ll get quality starters rather than say a Malik McDowell vs a Zach Wilson or whatever. As long as you already have a good QB (which Seattle does, albeit I concede he’s not Mahomes or Allen or Burrow or Herbert).
And as to your data on the majority of SB-winning QB’s being drafted in the 1st round, am going to use my daddy’s statement (prob not originally his) which is “If you torture the numbers long enough, they’ll confess”. Here comes some “nerded out” torture to follow up on your torture:
– I trust you’ll agree the cap was a watershed change in the NFL and that the relevant starting point for our discussion should be a world where there are cap implications at the league’s most expensive position? If you accept this, then among those 29 post-cap era SB’s, the straight up non-adjusted number is 51.7% Rd 1, 48.3% outside Rd 1. Essentially 50/50 which has been my point
– three of those SB-winning Rd 1 QB’s were traded for, not on their drafted teams (Steve Young, Trent Dilfer, Matthew Stafford). They didn’t get their original teams to a SB, So not the same as drafting a QB at #5 and then winning a SB. If we exclude those three, your percentage drops to 41.4%. Less than a 50% chance of getting a SB winning QB from the 1st round (but you could trade for one!)
– Then to be fair, 7 of those non-Rd 1 picks were this one guy named Tom Brady who we can agree is an outlier. Assume those 7 were instead won by the opposing QB (man, wouldn’t that have been nice in 2015…). You end up with 3 SB’s won by non-Rd 1 QB’s (Warner, Delhomme, Wilson) and 4 SB’s won by Rd 1 QB’s (McNabb, Ryan, Goff and Mahomes). So if there is no Tom Brady, your % goes back up to 44.8% originally drafted Rd 1 QB’s, and 55.6% non-Rd 1 QB’s.
It’s a push. Even if there’s no needle-in-a-haystack Tom Brady.
You can play this game with any position picked in the top 10. Qb, Dline, Wr, OL, CB, on and on
Wr: john ross, sammy watkins
Rb: trent richardson
OL: Joeckel
Cb: CJ henderson
DL: solomon thomas
There is always gonna be bust. Or players that didnt pan out picked in the top 10
Its just that many team reach for a Qb in the top 10 when the player was not slotted in the too 10 in the big board. Like jake locker, cristian ponder. And people remember qb bust over other positions.
BUT, this year the top 4 QB are top 10 in the big board. It would not be a reach to pick any of them with pick #5
Question is, do you trust John in his player evaluation and Pete in his player development with a qb they draft with pick #5??
I do, just based on history with russ and geno. So why are you so worried about qb bust???
If you dont have a franchise qb, you arent winning a superbowl. And dont tell me Geno is one
LB: Aaron Curry
Yep! He was a cant miss prospect. Look how he turned out.
Everyone, please stop using the argument about how many qb bust in the top 10!!
Teams that pick in the top 10 usually are not good teams. Dont have a good roster or winning culture. Thats why qbs fail. Zach Wilson, Darnold went to a losing jets team, with terrible oline. Daniel Jones was labeled a bust until Daboll was hired. Mitch trubisky, was overdrafted in front of mahomes and Waston. But, he was able to make the playoffs and would of won a game if it wasnt for the double doink fg. Baker was drafted by the Browns, but he even won a playoff game with them. Of course there are true misses like Josh Rosen. But cardinals gave up on him after a year by drafting Kyler Murray.
Seahawks have the highest draft pick (#5) for a playoff team since 2002. They have a good offensive roster for a young qb to thrive. Im not worried about qb being a bust. Have to take the chance. Its a franchise changer for 10 years.
I do not want to be like the Vikings. Have a decent qb in Cousins and a good roster, but never gonna win the superbowl. Thats what Geno will be for the seahawks moving forward.
Biggest problem with this draft is that it’s so weak at the top. The lesser QBs are look appealing because … what the hell else is there to do other than grab a low priority RB or TE.
The top four guys are not lesser QB’s
The needs outweigh the resources. That’s where they are..The players they Do have under contract are for the most part, needing to be replaced as well….The other obvious holes have been holes for too long. Couple that with the dreadful handling of contracts paid to players who can’t even stay on the field (and when they ARE on the field, cannot influence the game at the level they are THOUGHT to influence it by this regime is another huge problem.
The problems go beyond draft picks, free agents and money available. As was said, we see “attempts” at righting the ongoing year after year problems and NO solutions have been found under this current group.
If that’s the case then its time to change all of it. As fans we can see it, but there’s so much respect for PC BECAUSE of that one SB win. That was now a decade ago, and look what happened the very next year. One single play call had a trickle down effect that STILL has not been recovered from……Its time to MOVE ON.
👍
There’s so much wish-investment going on, here and elsewhere. I’m no different.
Pete Carroll’s mantra is “Always Compete.” It’s true… his teams compete. They scrappy. They win ugly. They went to San Francisco and in the first half went punch-4-punch with one of the most talented teams… ever? Heck, they had fucking Tanner Muse, AJ Johnson (?), and a bunch of other 3rd stringers on the field (which also deserves explanation bt-dubs!). Then they found out what happens when you wake Goliath up. That 49ers team is no joke. Top-tier talent everywhere. Purdy looks like an upgrade over Jimmy G.
I hope, wish-investing right now, Pete asks himself whether he is really ready to compete, like really compete. Not always be in the conversation and have some redemptive moments where he can toldaso the media as they pat him on the back. But create a Goliath and go all the way to the mountain top. That is gonna take everything he’s got. I think most people’s impression, Rob’s, the readership, heck even mine, is that Pete’s lust for a Super Bowl is no longer all consuming. If this is the case Pete should consider retirement (fr fr), relinquishing control (fr fr), and/or what an exit ramp looks like (and if that is what’s best for the organization). This is why Rob’s questions about who holds the keys is so crucial. We have 5 picks in the top-100 of a draft with good depth, including a one-time shot at a franchise player. If Pete is only in it for the next year or two, and only half-way, is he going to squander that draft capital? If Pete is already decided on a soft exit ramp a year or two down the road, is that going to hold the team back??
Things I think:
1) Geno is not going to win us a Championship. He might make a great bridge. He is surely a great leader in that locker room. With an off-season as the guy, I think he could be marginally better. You still can’t squander $32 million on that. Sometimes you gotta play it hard; I bet the Hawks play it that way.
2) We will not be a Super Bowl caliber team next year. I think the hope is that we can still better than we are now, still getting scrappy with the best of them at the end of the line. The goal has to be about building a foundation of a real championship team.
3) I don’t think Pete is going to retire. I do hope he continues to cede control. He better not sacrifice the future in hopes of a futile attempt to win one more game next year than he did this year. He is great in an executive role. He is surely a steady, inspiring hand that players love. But he has lost the fire in this belly.
4) I don’t think Pete is going to fire Clint. I hope we find a way to not lose Desai. I bet we keep the same scheme. I hope we still manage to poach some coaching talent. And please bring in a former NFL star who is willing to yell and scream and hold young players to account. I always wanted that person to be Lawyer Milloy. If Pete has lost some his fire… who can he bring in, that he trusts, that will inject some much needed fire into the staff and team? I always believe in adding talent not subtracting.
5) They don’t need journeymen. They need stars who will tilt the field. They need to hit on 2-3 *stars* in free agency and the draft (hopefully more). Roquan Smith got got. But I still hope, wish-investment time, they spend big in free agency on someone they believe can be an All-Pro. Please upgrade talent over bringing back familiar faces for the love of Gawd.
6) They need to play hard-ball with their journeymen already under contract with over-laden deals. They have to ask themselves if their one so-called “star” is ever going to be one again or if they’re chasing sunk costs. If fixing the defense is the name of the game this off-season… it’s not looking too bright when all the journeymen on bad deals are on that side of the field. They got questions marks without answers at all three levels.
7) ***BONUS THOUGHTS*** This year was a surprising success. Rob keeps it real 100%. But, I hope we can all admit that the wheels could’ve come all the way off this year (a la Holmgren’s final year), and that this is not what happened. I’m happy and optimistic about this team. Rob is also right that things have gone stale. Treading water is not enough. I don’t know how you fix that. New leadership (hopefully… the *right* leadership [hard to find, bt-dubs]) is certainly one way. There’s hard trade-offs this off-season that make a quick fix unlikely, nigh impossible. We should be honest about that too. A surprising success next year involves another killer draft and a team that at the end of the year looks like it’s ready to compete against anyone, anywhere, anytime in 2024. I say play the long game; play it hard.
I haven’t felt this excited about an offseason since 2020… but that was a disaster of an offseason in which all of our cap money was absolutely squandered. Let’s hope, final wish-investment, this is the beginning of something awe-inspiring, not the beginning of the end.
ps – love this little blog community, xoxo
https://theathletic.com/4079649/2023/01/13/giants-brian-daboll-coaching-staff/?source=user_shared_article
‘Inside Brian Daboll’s ‘genius’ process for assembling an all star coaching staff’
Sigh
Sigh indeed.
You mean hiring Tater wasn’t genius? Ken Norton wasn’t?
John Schneider was on the sideline towards the end of the game with Jody Allen. He looked proper pissed off. Pete, in his press conference wasn’t his normal unicorns and lollipops, positive about the future self. He looked pissed off as well.
Both were clearly mad about how that game went. If John and Pete aren’t aligned, then JS will direct that anger and place the blame on Pete. If that’s the case, Pete is gone. If John and Pete are aligned, then they will target their combined anger elsewhere and I suspect we’ll have a new defensive coordinator next season.
The second half of that game was a straight up embarrassment at the hands of our most hated rival. I don’t see any way we just continue on business as usual. Someone’s head is going to roll.
FYI that wasn’t Jody Allen
But you’re right about the different feel to their body language and words used
LOL. Oh.
I’m all in for a q.b at 5! Could you imagine a read option with Richardson and ken walker. The weird thing about geno for me was as ken walker got better geno got worse. You would think that an improved run game would have made geno better. We’ve seen the best we’re gonna see from geno and the back breaking turnovers are his m.o
I have a sinking feeling CJ is staying in. Why wait this long, even if he declares is he mentally ready if it was this hard a decision? If he stays in we are kinda shanked at 5 on the QB front unless we trade up or settle for someone later.
Im curious what JS thinks of Hooker, Ward, McKee, Hall types at QB. I do think institutionally they will decide to go with a young qb and that rookie contract and all it affords you elsewhere on the roster with the savings. Its how they built the first winner. Question is, can we find that guy in the later rounds?
Well, if it’s a tough decision for him, you want him to take his time.
I don’t think we need to over analyse this. He’s capable of making his own mind up when he wants to. Good luck to him whatever he decides.
I keep reading how upset PC/JS were when the game fell apart. I find this to be incredulous. Did they not realize how crappy the Seahawks Defense has been all year? The steamrollling by the 49ers should not have been a surprise by anyone.
I think these reactions are embarrassment. We put that weak non- competitive team on the field and did it in front of the whole world because no other game is on. Maybe that embarrassment will lead to the needed changes
I don’t think their reaction is an embarrassment. They both looked really pissed off.
An embarrassing reaction would’ve been ‘ah shucks’ and talk of this ‘being like 2011’ or what not. The rubbish we’ve heard in the past.
Instead they both just looked angry AF. I thought it was interesting.
As with last season when everyone was saying ‘run it back’ I don’t think this off season is going to be quiet and straight forward like people think.
I am really hoping that it was Schneider who took the reins this last draft, and the one who pushed for Nwosu. It is one of the only things that will give me hope that they don’t break the cap on Geno and continue to draft wisely and with patience.
It also give me hope that we will see a rookie QB at #5.
Bruce Irvin reeks of Pete’s meddling, though.
For a good laugh, head to a few of the other Seahawk fan sites.
The Pete apologists are lurking to school each and every one of us in Pete’s legacy. Apparently, it is apocryphal to suggest he is as fault for the state of this defense.
I’m sure there were more than a few Tom Landry fans who acted the same, albeit around the office water cooler and not the non-existent Internet.
There are other sites???? 😂
If you have a newer model device or computer to browse them with, you should be able to get around all the adds clogging up the space and not slowing down your browser, like a free cooking recipe site😉🤣🤣
No I do not want to buy a shirt that says “Back off, I’m on my period”. Or, “Have ED?”
No and no.
PPC sites are atrocious.
Saw a video this morning talking about paying geno aaaaand using our vast financial resources in free agency to bolster positions.
Shut it off when they started saying geno would be even better with an even better run game and oline.
New video:
How the Seahawks can win it all by trading for Myles Garrett, Creed Humphrey, Justin Jefferson and drafting Jalen Carter
Most places I read about hawks say franchise or sign him to $30 mil/yr. No discussion about our cap.
I’d watch that.
Maybe get the lads together to do a video about how good Geno would be if every oline position was a probowler. Fant was kittle. Parkinson was fant. Trade a fourth round pick for a near HOF rb. And find a third reciever who is also a probowler.
…………..
Heard GrossmaToast and Palatypus are working on a buddy comedy screen play where John and Pete find a DeLorean under Vulcan towers and fire it up to 88 mph, travel back in time to bring Brady to this draft so they don’t have spend a high pick on a qb.
For 30m, let Geno walk and get a 3rd round compensatory pick next year.
We won’t get compensatory picks because we’ll find a way to add more first round bust of Christmas past to haunt our defense and offensive line.
For anything north of 18 million, let Geno walk!
If I am a Jags fan this morning I am beyond estatic and not about the playoff win.
Have never seen a QB at any level bounce back like he did and come through with a win. He was absolutely dreadful and unlucky in the first half and almost all QBs would have folded or at a minimum gone into a shell. For a young QB to bounce back like he did speaks volumes about his confidence and future IMO. The Jags have a franchise QB now and they know it.
The prettiest QB in the NFL showed some bollocks last night
You mean like RW in the NFCCG against the Pack?
As a die hard Seahawks fan, I experienced what I would describe as the most disappointing season I have ever experienced as a fan. I actually found myself rooting against the Seahawks in every single game this year as the Seahawks losing may be the only way to get rid of Pete Carroll.
I even had to stop posting here because I could only think of negative things to say.
The Pete Carroll experience has gone on long enough. The state of this team is not going to change as long as he’s the head coach.
“Some harsh words should be shared and some big decisions taken. Everything should be on the table, too.” Were long past serious talks and discussions, Pete Carroll needs to be fired now.
Please someone (Jody) do something before I lose all hope and become a 49ers fan. You have to admire the way the 49ers beat the **** out of the Seahawks yesterday!
P.S. My wife is a die hard Seahawks fan, so my rooting for the other team has caused a fair amount of marital discord during games, which I am also blaming on Pete
“I even had to stop posting here because I could only think of negative things to say.”
We already have Big Mike for that! (Disclaimer: I kinda like Big Mike so this is kinda my attempt at humor)
AL: never let your wife forget it’s just a game!
I feel like it is necessary to point out a few things when evaluating Geno Smith’s value.
1) He had a running back that rushed for over a thousand yards in fifteen games.
2) He had two solid offensive tackles that have made the most all-rookie teams so far.
3) He had two thousand-yard receivers.
The way I see it there are three tiers of quarterbacks in this league.
1) Elite (top five)
2) Good (top ten)
3) Bad (all the rest)
If you have solid tackles, great receivers, and a good running attack, how good do you really have to be in a quarterback friendly system to make the pro-bowl?
Fair points
One question, how the hell did Brock Purdy fall through the cracks of all the nfl draft evaluators and pundant’s ? The kid clearly has talent and poise and his 6 game stats are excellent. Probably should have been at the very least a 2nd round pick. Some will say he is benefiting from a great run game and the # 1 defense to bail him out, but that still does not change his stats.
Two words
Kyle Shanahan
Scheming a variety of ways for Deebo, CMC and Kittle to get the ball and rip off absurd amounts of YAC makes Shanahan’s game planning so much easier.
Lynch and Shanahan have really built a juggernaut together.
Still doesn’t answer why he went so low in the draft. Scheme or no scheme he has to still stand in and get the ball to where it has to be, on time.
Sure
But Shanahan is a genius. Credit to Purdy for the way he has played but nobody schemes guys open like KS and basically sets up a system where if you do as you’re told on basic keys it all functions to the level we’re seeing
He played almost 50 games (so he was seasoned). He did alright! But I guess the questions were: could he possibly do well against pros, and would he be big enough at 6 foot one? So far he’s been good.
Al – I am very down on Carroll and the Seahawks right now. I watched every Seahawks game this year along with following this blog all season.
I will admit this now. I never rooted for the Seahawks to win one game this season. I wanted them to lose all of their games and for Carroll to retire or get fired. I definitely was hoping the Seahawks would be drafting the best QB prospect with the first pick.
From looking through the comments on this site it seems that we are not alone in not wanting the Seahawks to win every week. We see a team stuck in mediocrity, are sick of it, and disappointed that the team won’t make the necessary changes. For example, getting Carroll the hell out of there.
A lot of other fans will consider us outcasts or very bad fans. We are the realists and the ones who want another Superbowl before the Apocalypse. 😀
Yes sir – it seems many of our Seahawks brethren are into the whole purgatory / false hope deal. None of us expects a super bowl every year; we do expect a coherent plan and a conscious working towards a contender.
I swear Pete Carroll has spent the better part of 7 years coaching this franchise with the goal of “be good enough to not get fired.” Hard to argue otherwise.
This tweet will piss a lot of people off but it’s spot on
https://twitter.com/mattmikolas/status/1614672770532790277?s=46&t=zven0yESJM8NyeK45lQf2Q
The tweet is spot on, while some of the replies about the team exceeding expectations, year one of the team without Russ, are very discouraging and missing the point. The Seahawks have been stuck in mediocrity for far too long.
Looking at free agents, I wonder if Marcus Davenport and Daron Payne are good fits in this D if they can work some cap magic like the Rams…..
Think every fanbase is hoping for Payne
Davenport would have to be cheapish for me
Sportrac has Payne at 19.4 million a year.
So probably no for us.
Yeah he’s basically the Rashaad Penny of pass rushers
I’d guess Javon Hargrave would be too old for your liking?
My preference has been and always will be to load up your DL with real depth and quality
My hope when they traded RW was that they would have the cap space to go after a whole bunch of proven talent in the trenches and fill in gaps via the draft
Instead they’ve spent a chunk of their 2023 cap on people like Diggs and Dissly
This
And wasted millions on the pompous peacock.
We all want the team to win every week, no doubt about that. No one wants mediocre either, no doubt about that.
But all – as you term them outcasts – are unrealistic in how these wins and goals there are achieved. I would say you are a million miles away from being realists.
So we get a new HC and a new QB for next season and run a 4-13 season. Is that a worthless season, and will you be rooting for the HC to get sacked the following season because we didn’t sweep all before us and win the big one?
Maybe the Head Coach will be the wrong appointment and they will still complain?
It’s possible for fans to think change is needed but given those same fans don’t make the decision on who comes in, they equally don’t need to take ‘ownership’ for what comes next.
I can’t think of many NFL fan bases that would accept only one playoff win over seven seasons. Philadelphia moved off of Pedersen soon after their championship. It is clear to many people that Carroll has done a poor job coaching defense since the LOB disbanded. The fact that this level of mediocrity is accepted and not questioned is what is upsetting.
I acknowledge it may not be healthy to want your favorite team to lose , actually lose big, every week but it seems the only way to get the needed organizational changes. We also value the improved draft stock that comes from loses. I also acknowledge that high draft picks mainly just offer hope to some of us. Hope for improving the roster and a better team in the future.
The key to the 2023 NFL Draft for the Seahawks is: Will CJ Stroud enter the draft, or commit to another year with “The” Ohio State University? It effects perhaps no team more than Seattle. He enters, and there will likely be a QB4 available when we pick at #5 (barring trades which could result in picks 1-4 being QBs). In that case, consolation prize – Will Anderson. If Stroud stays at OSU, then there likely will be no QB available, no Will Anderson available at #5. Also, trade value for #5 pick evaporates.
The drop from pick three to pick #5 was huge. The Stroud decision is nearly as big. I think he stays in college with a NIL payment as big as his first year salary in the NFL. This will be very bad for the Seahawks and likely require a trade up to get one of the QBs.
Unfortunately the only spot that makes sense would be #3.
#1 too costly.
Will the Cardinals really want to help out a devision rival?
It will definitely be a big day on Monday in regards to Stroud.
Fantastic observations, Rob. I would add:
Time of possession: Seattle ranked 31st in 2022
Third down conversions: the season started well and fell off a cliff (I believe the broadcast yesterday showed a statistic ranking the Hawks worst in the NFL over the past so many games).
Penalties: 26th
As you mention, these have been reoccurring issues for years and questions have to be asked about coaching, especially for a team that wants to run the ball first.
Another issue is soft off coverage and zone defenses allowing free releases. This has been an issue with the 3-4 Fangio defenses and was incredibly frustrating yesterday. Woolen was a liability on slants all day. I’m glad someone asked about this in the post game presser. Pete’s response was they were trying to limit big plays by taking away the deep ball. It sounded like SF knew this and built a game plan around it. This has been an issue for years as well – teams feasting on easy short passes and soft zone holes. I’d love to get back to a press man defense on the outside.
There’s no doubt that the Hawks need to get better in the trenches this offseason. We want tk be the bully, but play finesse.
We need to upgrade our RG and C, MLB (I can’t overstate how much Barton hurt us this year with poor run angles and coverage – and he looks slower this year, maybe after he beefed up) and DTs.
Rob is right on with the talk of a new head coach. Getting to pick your QB of the future will attract a higher caliber of coach and also give them a few years of grace to develop the QB and team.
To take it a step further, this is the right time to quickly sell the team. A new owner wants to pick their head coach and put their mark on the team. There is no salary cap for coaches so it is also an opportunity for a rich owner to buy the coach he wants.
I do not have any good suggestions for either the coach or new owner, but can say both choices are more important than the next QB. Look at what happened in Denver!
One funny possibility for the next coach is Jim Harbaugh!
Harbaugh would probably love the chance to stick it to the Whiners 2 times a year.
Every time I watch Josh Allen now I think of all the people who would’ve hated the idea of Seattle drafting him because he would’ve been too risky
That’s why I believe taking the “risk” is necessary. Also, imagine the teams who passed on Justin Herbert because he was “too timid”
They would’ve wanted Mehki Becton instead
The safe pick
*Another extraordinarily talented tench player with motivation/effort issues…
Every time I watch an NFL game and it’s 3rd and 1, I think “how many of these can a team screw up?”.
Every year I start the offseason with my own personal assessment of team needs. So, as I considered that this morning, my first thought was that I wouldn’t write anything about WB because whole articles can, and will, be written on that topic.
But after reading Rob’s piece this morning I thought I would share a few thoughts he didn’t touch on.
First is a friendly reminder that the Seahawks actually need TWO quarterbacks because both our starter and backup are FAs. The sign Geno and draft the QB of the future strategy fills both needs. But, Rob asks the right question, “At what cost?”
Second, I have been thinking over the “Our system is QB-friendly comment.” Is their data to back it up or is it an opinion? We have noted for years that Seattle has invested almost no draft capital in the WB position and wondered at the start of the season if that practice was going to cost them a wasted season. And then Seattle had an unexpected Pro-Bowl caliber year from Geno. Since PCJS took over, they have used nothing higher than a 3rd round pick on a QB and have gotten Pro-Bowl or better level play every season but their first. Is that the coincidental result of the home-run draft pick spent on Russ? Or is Geno’s surprising success evidence of something else? (Scheme is one possible answer, player development is another)
Maybe they see QB the same way they see CB where they have also only used nothing higher than a 3rd-round pick and yet have had great success developing starters for their system.
It has almost gone undiscussed how remarkably successful Seattle has been at the QB position for over a decade with so little investment. The data (not opinion) shows that PCJS has been the most successful front office in handling the QB position in the NFL and it isn’t even close.
In fact, by trading Russ for draft picks, they have a net GAIN in draft resources spent on the WB position. (The same is true for CB when you consider comp picks). Let that sink in as you consider how many teams have spent tons of draft capital To get their supposed “franchise QB” and still struggled through multiple losing seasons.
Assuming this to be true – that they are miracle workers at arguably the two premium positions in football – then think of the built-in advantage that gives them at building out an elite roster.
Then look at what they’ve done with that advantage…built a soft, weak team with terrible cap management and over-priced non-stars in most all other positions. Pathetic is the only word that springs to mind currently.
I’m bored with this team. Watching them get manhandled on defense is demoralizing. Watching the Niners defense rocket toward the ball and rip out our souls on tackles and not take the scenic route is beyond frustrating. It’s like they have GPS on the ball and we’re pulling out the atlas trying to figure out where the hell to go.
Well I only wrote about QB because that will be one of the key questions of this off-season. But I think the answer to your question would involve looking at the data for other positions. For instance, we have talked for years about the draft and FA investment in OL with poor results. And DL also jumps out as a position group where Seattle has invested very heavily in terms of draft picks with poor results.
By QB friendly they mean we won’t get demolished and (as we did with Tarvaris Jackson) can be competitive for most games and for a season. It will not take us deep in the playoffs. For that you need a tilt the field QB, which Wilson was for a stretch there, being superb on game winning 4th quarter drives. Geno doesn’t have that. Neither did Tarvaris. So yes, we’ll be competitive with Geno, get stuck with middling round picks, and then be one and done in the playoffs. Even Wilson couldn’t get us over the hump after the NE loss. If you want to win super bowls, you need a top QB. One who can suffer 4 interceptions in the first half to come back with 4 tds in the second. Can you even imagine Geno or Tavaris throwing 4 tds in a game? Neither has done it yet.
Right, because the PCJS System worked so spectacularly well with Clipboard Jesus and TJack at qb….
Russ was a homerun pick driven by Darrell Bevell, who spent months fighting to get first JS and finally PC on boatd that Russ could be a starter. The system helped him, but it isnt one that works for any old hack. PC is no Shanahan.
We also haven’t had picks high enough to pursue a QB in the past drafts.
There’s plenty out there to suggest JS was perfectly willing to trade Wilson to get a shot at drafting a QB high; so I definitely don’t think they view QB the same as CB.
They were looking at Allen, Mahomes, and others; all were top end of 1st round.
I think like one of Rob’s previous articles suggests; it’s going to come down to who’s really in charge, Pete or John.
Geno Smith 63.8 PFF grade vs SF
$32.4m
Pete Carroll, one playoff win in 6 seasons
Still coach of the Seahawks
Sadly it feels like most Seahawks fans are happy with just making the playoffs those 6 times.
And how much is that even padded by a garbage time drive. He’s got quite a few of those this year.
Herbery mentioned above….
Chargers gonna charger
If I’m Herbert I sit down with Spanos (owner) and tell him either you fire Staley AND do whatever it takes to hire Sean Payton or I will leave no matter how many times you tag me
And you don’t do such things as a young QB.
Also i dream that one day, we will remember that the same Sean Payton had multiple losing seasons IN A ROW with a prime Drew Brees. People can be his fans of course, that’s no problem and none of my business, but to name him is the only savior of Chargers and Herbert is a bit funny to be honest.
I personally would not even swap Carroll with him, but that’s just me ofc.
Never said he’d be the only savior of that franchise. I said if I were Herbert, he’s who’d I want. Frankly I am not sure anyone can save this franchise. It’s been this was in Chargerland for a long time.
And I’d trade Carroll for him yesterday and throw in Tater for free.
You mean the Chargers who didn’t want to pay for their own stadium in San Diego so they are squatting at the stadium that the Rams built?
Payton is salivating over that job. I think it’s a done deal. $12-15 a year. Total control of personnel.
I’d be very surprised if Spanos was willing to pay Staley to not coach for several years.
Mike is correct
Chargers owner is a special breed though and wouldn’t give Payton full control
The only constant over the decades of charger flops is Spanos. Herbert should sit down with Spanos and tell him to fire himself. Until then, the Spanos curse will live on. A team that had Brees, Rivers, Herbert, still can’t get anywhere. It’s commical.
Actually it’s 2 Spanos’. Was his dad Alex and now son Dean. But you’re right.
Anybody else think about what this franchise would’ve looked like had Okung been drafted ahead of Trent Williams? Williams career has been insane.
*Thinking in terms of OL stability that plagued us for so long.
Mine is what if Pete didnt do the Percy Harvin trade. And drafted DeAndre Hopkins with the 1st they gave to Vikings.
I bet they would of had another superbowl or two.
A domino effect. Prob wouldnt of trade Unger for Jimmy too.
Not trading the farm for the pompous peacock and then doubling down on it with a huge contract.
Drafting Creed Humphrey instead of Dee Eskridge
Drafting Nick Chubb instead of Rashad Penney
Drafting blog favorite Joel Bitonio
There’s more and it’s a long list but you’re never going to do the draft/personnel decisions perfectly every time. However, there’s been a lot of mistakes made that we’ve all just touched on and if only half of those are made it could be very different.
*Blog favourite DeAndre Hopkins
Didn’t we all think a year ago 2022 was a bad QB class and that this was the year to get one? It’s pretty certain Schneider knows this, thus why he got two firsts this year. What’s changed about this plan? Two so-so defensive linemen?
Now, if the plan is to take a QB this year no matter what after the Wilson trade, it means John made this plan with the assumption of having 2 mid/late round 1st rounders this year, which means if he wanted one of these top QBs (which I think is safe to assume) he was willing to package those to trade up and get a top QB. Now that he’s miraculously been gifted #5, why would he fuck around and find out by staying put and missing out on the guy he wants? Getting an elite QB from the Wilson trade would be a stroke of genius. Absolutely don’t rule out a trade up. Especially if Stroud doesn’t declare. If we sit on our butts while the top qbs are taken a spot or two ahead of us I’m going to be pissed. What a missed once in a lifetime opportunity.
Excellent logic and excellent post. You sold me.
If John sees Levis, Stroud as a the next josh allen or Herbert, i want them to trade up and draft one.
Question is, what is it gonna take to move up to #1?
this year’s #5, native 1st, and next years 1st?
It really comes down to how far apart they see the top 4 qb’s and how highly they rate them, how the teams above them rate them, and the NFL in general (what other teams are willing to trade above us). If they think they’re all pretty similar, then you could risk staying at 5 and just pick who’s leftover. However, if there’s one they think is clearly above the others, it’s worth going up to get that guy. If there’s two, you could trade into the 2nd spot, or three into the 3rd-4th spot.
Sitting at #5 they also can package a more enticing offer than someone picking at 8-10. It means Chicago, Texas, or Arizona can trade down and still get a coveted top 5 player. We are in a great position in this draft. I hope John doesn’t get too cute or overthink this. Just go and get the guy you want.
Feels like we all are assuming that that John Snyder is the one in charge and not Pete.
I truly hope this is the case.
Schneider
^^^THIS^^^ re Geoff U and supported by Big Mike. I like Levis personally, but I’m only a gnome who lives under a rock…That said, I have a cousin-gnome who works for Goldman Sachs (GS)…he says it will be very expensive to trade up from #5 for the QB we want in this draft. Seahawks have to get #1 or #2 because Cardinals at #3 won’t want to trade inter-division and Colts at #4 are also looking to trade up. The dialog going forward needs to focus on “how much” draft capital should/are Seahawks willing to part with to get “their guy?
I can’t look at Pete and not think of Tomlin and Belichick. SB winners, most of success had in combination with future HOF QBs (tho Russ is trending backwards). Defensive-minded. Poor playoff performance in the modern era.
Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, hasn’t been to SB since 2010 (lost).
Belichick hasn’t won a playoff game since 2018 (SB).
Neither made the playoffs this year and are in QB purgatory. There is a faction of Pats fans that want Bill to retire also. Tomlin is younger, but some Steelers fans have been impatient as well.
Question is- can either of these coaches win with their brand of football in today’s game without a peak HOF QB at the helm? And how many years are fans/ownership willing to wait to find out?
All 3 coaches are good enough to have a floor of mediocre teams and average as a perennial wild card contender. Some fans are content with that I suppose (don’t think anyone here is).
Unless they can find the next HOF QB, I don’t believe these coaches will taste the SB again. I’m sorry to say, but Geno/Lock, Pickett, and Mac Jones ain’t it.
The draft season last year was fun. This draft season will be epic. And we are fortunate as draft fans to have the best draft blog in the country. Thank you Rob.
I love that we have a ton of draft capital and I hope to see a ton of holes filled. However, I think I would be most excited to see a trade up to get ‘their’ QB. Simply because in the past when the Seahawks have aggressively targeted must have prospects it has worked well. And I love the idea of John seeing one of the QBs his guy and doing whatever it takes to obtain them.
Would love to hear what other teams fan bases would say if their team was signing Geno to $30 mil + deal. I don’t think the idea would be well recieved that’s for sure.
Cha wrote the definitive piece on the cost of Geno for this blog a while back. The franchise tag doesn’t work. You could put together a 2-year deal or 2 plus a void year that could keep the first-year cap hit at $20-25 million and still guarantee Geno $40 million+ at signing. If Seattle and Geno can reach agreement like KC and Alex Smith did, it could be a win for both.
I just don’t see the kind of FA market to get Geno a long-term monster deal. Some QB-needy teams will be looking for rookies. Carr could easily be more sought after by a team who feels they are “just a QB away.” But I could be wrong. We have seen some teams bet their season and pay more than $30 million for QBs worse than Geno. The Colts last year. The Broncos too.
But who would do it? Here are the top 10 in cap space per OTC.
Bears? No
Falcons? No
Giants? No
Seahawks? Yes
Bengals? No
Patriots? No
Ravens? No
Texans? No
Chiefs? No
Raiders? Maybe
Lions? No.
I could see the Raiders making a hard pitch to Brady.
Saints maybe? But, I agree. I don’t see a market for Geno
The Saints have the worst cap management in the league. They are currently $52,894,043 over the cap ($56,764,151 in effective cap space.)
Fantastic article Rob!! And I see it riled up the culties as well… If Geno does get too expensive the Seahawks have to let him walk. We’d get a 3rd comp pick and then let Lock bridge the QB position to hopefully Richardson in 2024. This team is so far away from a championship run, signing Geno to any type of a contract over 15mil/3yrs would be more proof John needs to go as well. And if they do sign Geno to a big contract, keep Pete and then trade their draft capitol for another so called “win now” player I’ll probably tune this team out until they move on from Pete and John. It’s really hard to be hopeful in the Seahawk’s future knowing Pete is at the steering wheel.
The cultists are having a meltdown today, predictably
You can’t say anything other than “amasing seezon soooo prowd”
I think you can say plenty of other things. The players are all talking about how they need to get better.
No way Seattle gets a comp pick for Geno. They have too many vacant positions to fill without using free agency.
There are plenty of ways they can get a comp for Geno, namely not signing a free agent QB to a multi-year deal worth 50-60 mil. If the Seahawks go cheap and bring in free agents who fill holes left by guys who sign elsewhere then they’ll get a comp for Geno and possibly more depending on how many free agents they bring in.
Not necessarily:
Just read a Ringer article that described 2023 as a weak QB class at the top
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Could work out well for Seattle if that’s the consensus.
I bet it won’t be the consensus
Too many QB needy teams with upset fan bases.
The bidding war for that #1 from Chicago could get comical.
Williams at USC and Daye at N. Carolina are supposed to be very high picks next year, maybe 1 and 2 overall. If so, that’s not going to be the consensus
If it is weak at top who do they have going top 5?
They probably think Myles Murphy is a top-five lock
Because he’s on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list
(Don’t need to watch tape)
Rob,
I hope all the other teams believe that. That could help us out. I just read something today saying Jalen Carter in the top five is the safest pick. Yikes
That’s because there’s a lot of crap draft analysis out their House
A couple of questions/opinions:
If PC retires, will JS resign or want to stick with the rebuild?
If PC retires, are there any names of possible coaches (hopefully someone youngish, not an old retread) that would excite you if they were hired?
I think anyone that wants to re-sign Geno for big money is caught up in too much optimism. You don’t change course in the middle of a rebuild just because you over achieved. A career back up QB having this kind of year is a great story, but it would be crazy to think he is the guy for the future. Not to mention the salary constraints it would cause.
We are fortunate that Denver didn’t finish with a better record or there would be no talk of getting one of the 4 QB’s at all. Even a potentially great DL would be a mistake at 5. With all the draft capital they have, take a QB first and start plugging the other holes.
With 2 first and second rounders in the next two years, this is better than a dream scenario for a rebuild. That means there is potential to add 8 high talent young guys in the next year and a half. Don’t give Geno big money, cut the overpaid underperformers and take full advantage of building the future now.
I think Schneider would be foaming at the mouth to take real control of player personnel in Pete’s absence.
A rebuild with the foundation set by the 2022 rookies and all those picks in the 1st and 2nd are something every GM dreams of. I would hazard to say that the moment Pete lets John know he is retiring, John walks into his office, opens that 30 year single malt and gets loaded with HIS staff.
So Miami came to play as a 7th seed with a 3rd string QB today. So only the Seahawks shit the bed in the playoffs so far.
Kyle da Seehorks plaid gr8 they wer winin at harf thyme sooooo prowd
Hahaha I know what you were going for there Rob, but I almost had a stroke trying to read that. The moral victory halftime crowd, the same timid souls that would run a draw on 3rd and 9 just so the 49ers would take one more time out before half time and give them the ball back.
When we play the Niners next year, Jalen Carter’s 40% of the snaps will mean it’s only a 17-0 scoring run, not 25-0
(I know I’m being really facetious, blame people on Twitter telling me I’m not a real Seahawks fan)
Rob, i think there are two types of seahawks fan.
1. The standard should be the team to compete for superbowls every year. Or build towards it. And dont accept mediocrity. Hold the team accountable if we feel they are not doing a good job. (Which fans here in SDB belong)
2. The “better luck next year” crowd. We competed and got to the playoffs. Hey, its better than half the teams in the nfl. You want to be like the Browns, Texans? Pete got to the playoffs 10 out of the 13 years here.
That is why seattle sports teams dont win championships. Every year, Im sick of hearing about the 1995, “my oh my” Mariners. Or the 116 wins Mariners anniversary. those two teams didnt even make the world series!
With the sale of the seahawks in a few years, i really hope the seahawks dont become like the Mariners. Constantly reliving the LOB days of the past, while not actively competing for championships.
Im jealous of Boston fans because the sports fan there expect championships. Dont settle for anything less. Media there is the same. That trickles up to the teams. Hold them accountable.
My God I hate the Mariners and some of our fans that embrace mediocritiy in baseball. They are making excuses this year for the team in not spending in free agency this year. Then of course it’s always hey yeah its bad now but remember 95 and 2001 they were awesome weren’t they!?
I can easily see those being the same people which is a lot that are happy ten years ago we won a super bowl and that’s good enough coupled with 10-7 and 9-8 seasons where we barely make it into the playoffs and get blown out. My God demand more out of your teams and life!
100% this
We had a good window there with a franchise QB, it’s a shame the FO pissed it away, constantly trading our draft picks for one year rentals who didn’t pan out, players who didn’t fit in, or got injured after big contracts. Harvin, Graham, Clowney, Adams. All these trades in hopes of pushing the team over the top for that year continually depleted our overall team on the back end. And seriously eats up cap space.
We need to get back to drafting well and finding good bargains in FA.
I honestly believe in a 4-3 with a new coach or defensive coordinator that was given total freedom, this defense could have been middle of the pack. While that’s not where you want to be in the end that would have been more than ok in a rebuild year with a few missing pieces that could be had in the off season and draft.
Rob, I bet you can’t do an entire podcast in a Chicgo Bears Superfan accent.
Pete must be thinking should have gone with a 3 string QB with all those teams playing competitive.
Unfortunately, I do not think Stroud is going to declare…
The Big 10 tv contract may be too lucrative.
Rob, how do you rank DTR, Jaren Hall, Tanner McKee? I think we may be the odd guys out of the top three qbs if Stroud doesn’t declare.
I like DTR but none of those three are likely to be the answer
If Stroud stays at Ohio State it’ll be nothing to do with money
“If Stroud stays at Ohio State it’ll be nothing to do with money”
Legacy might be the primary factor, however, if Florida was offering 13 million to a QB recruit how much is on the table for an established star like Stroud? I’m sure it’s enough to soften the blow of deferred NFL earnings and fund a nice insurance policy.
It’s most likely legacy and that Ohio state feels like they might be able to win the championship.
I’m pretty in favor of athletes making money but in a few short years it’s going to make the game gross.
Stroud made 2.5 million in nil lat year.
And Jaden Rashada. Woof. That is a horrible looking build so hopefully he makes a ton in college cause he looks like a skinny mariota….
But he would earn more in the NFL, a lot, lot more.
So if he goes back it’s because he has unfinished business
Rob, what are your thoughts about Hendon Hooker as a potential QB project?
A player who benefited significantly from his scheme
Thank you
Obviously 3/4 of the game is left, but NY and Jax were my two upsets I had pick for this week in the playoffs. I cannot at all trust that Viking defense it is on par with the Seahawks and that isn’t a winning team in the playoffs if that is your defense.
I just can’t get over how shitty the Vikings 3-4 defense is!….It’s just like watching the Seahawks with only a little bit better tackling.
I don’t know how we can stick with this scheme
It’s clearly rubbish
I’m not a coach or former player by any means but my Grandfather was a college III and high school coach his whole life so I’ve been around the game an taught things. I can under stand the concepts or intent of the Fangio disciples scheme. There are holes and space everywhere it seems on every level for an offense to exploit.
*can’t understand
A question for those more money wise. Does trading Diggs provide any salary relief? Instead of cutting to save 14M can we get a pick and save 8M or is cutting the only way for relief?
Also has there been a big contributor that Pete hasn’t publicly said he wanted back? Clowney and Frank he did I believe
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/curtis-allen-a-critical-off-season-from-a-financial-perspective
Hope we get youth at coaching and QB for 2023.
I think everyone should read: “NFL Draft: The odds of finding a franchise QB in top-15 are lower than you think.” It is a low probability bet to get even an above average QB in the draft. And, we will ruin them if we don’t fix the inside OL first. Indeed, that is why Purdy is doing so well – we couldn’t hardly touch him. Geno would have looked just as good with the 49ers’ OL. Not saying we should stick with Geno, just that we should not ruin a QB regardless of the round we select him in.
It’s a low probability to find brilliance at any position early in the draft
That’s just how it is
You don’t shirk from doing it because other totally unrelated players failed. You judge each player on his own merits
And what are the odds outside the top-15? Bet you it’s much much lower.
We will not ruin a QB. Was Wilson ruined starting as a rookie behind our even crappier o-line? Was Geno ruined early on in his career, or did he just suck?
I should have said that article is from Seaside Joe (Kenneth Arthur) https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/gthuC1wkm7Sp9YpCmEGPb?domain=substack.com. Sorry i don’t know how to hyperlink it.
Assuming QB of the future is our priority with our #5 pick, are we all comfortable letting Anthony Richardson fall to us?
I prefer Will Levis or Bryce Young but know we would need to pay to trade up for those two probobly with the Bears for 1st overall.
CJ Stroud declared for the NFL.
cha,
Thank you for the in-depth read. I really like how you laid everything out and talked about the future as well. I know the goal is to try to make things great as quickly as possible and the realism is that it most likely is not happening in one year. Letting things grow and continue to develop in 2023 with, the hopes of improvement heading into 2024 makes things so much more palatable and provides so many other options.
Great work!
I was just thinking maybe we do use the tag on Geno and trade him for a 2nd round pick?
is that plausible?
Yes but it is fraught with peril.
They’d commit $32m of cap until the draft. So their spending power in free agency is severely limited until they trade him.
They’d need to be very, very sure there is that kind of trade market for Geno. That means more than one team willing to pay him $32m guaranteed AND give the Seahawks a 2nd round pick. Why two? If it is just one, they can sweat the Seahawks and play poker with them right up until the draft.
Solid teams have shown well this playoff run so far, with a nobody at QB. We are pretty far away from a solid lineup, especially on defense. If you think about it, how many more scores could the offense put together with an occasional stop from the defense? We never stop anyone when it’s important, and so they go on to score while out offense sits on the pine.
Honestly, I’d be fine to pick all defense with one center. Maybe grab a lesser name QB who has the “skills”, but was on a crappy team, or had lousy coaching.
Now here’s a thought that will get mauled by many, but unless Geno resigns for peanuts, resign Drew Lock. He is still young, but is now very familiar with the hawks. And who knows, maybe he does a Daniel Jones impression and suddenly the lights go on?