This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The crucible of the fourth quarter has arrived and the Seahawks could not be better positioned to make the most of it at 8-5 with a division lead.

A four-game winning streak fueled by the defense we dreamed of when Pete Carroll was fired and Mike Macdonald was hired has supercharged the optimism in this team.

Now comes their toughest test yet: The Green Bay Packers at 9-4 are playing an extremely effective brand of football. They are 8-1 outside their division, their only loss coming in Brazil against the Eagles to open the season.

The Packers continue to be one of the NFL’s best teams at big-ticket free agent spending, with Josh Jacobs leading a great rushing attack and Xavier McKinney leading the NFL with seven interceptions and adding a sack for good measure.

The good news is Green Bay has not won in Seattle since 2008. Charlie Frye was the Seahawks’ quarterback for that one, Olindo Mare was their kicker and Mike Holmgren’s coaching career was winding down. The Packers are 0-4 since.

How can the Seahawks make it 5 in a row?

Win the First Downs and the First Quarter

This is a tall order. The Packers are the NFL’s #4 offense in First Quarter scoring and the #2 defense. How are they that good? Control.

Their offense has run 210 plays in the opening quarter so far this season. The defense has faced only 138. They are running the ball and keeping it out of their opponents’ hands. It is by far their best quarter in rushing, as they are gaining an impressive 5.5 yards per carry and have 38 rushing first downs.

On first downs? Overall, the Packers are gaining 5.91 yards per play – far better than the league average of 5.51. Their running game is at its best on first downs as well.

This allows them to in effect set the game script. In their current 3-1 stretch, Jordan Love has not had to throw the ball 30 times in a game. He is throwing for 67% completions, has six touchdowns against only one interception and has only been sacked four times. When they get their running game fired up, 8–9-minute drives are normal. The defense is rested, Love just has to keep the game under control and their margin of victory goes way up.

The Lions disrupted the script last week by only allowing Josh Jacobs to touch the ball three times in the first quarter. They took a lead and the Packers tied it in the second quarter with a Jacobs-heavy drive where he had eight touches.

Indeed, the Packers’ four losses were among Jacobs’ lowest utilized games. Jacobs must be contained as a runner. Where does Jacobs run? Between the tackles. I don’t think I need to remind Seahawks fans what happens when Jacobs is allowed to run up the middle.

This might be where the game is won or lost. Right up front, in the trenches. It will be a lunchpail kind of day that requires sound play. Jacobs is right behind Derrick Henry with 26 broken tackles already this season. His best attribute might be fighting through contact.

The Seahawks’ front lines are linebackers are gaining accolades and confidence by the week. Leonard Williams is leading the way, but Byron Murphy is doing the dirty work and Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight are beneficiaries of being kept clean.

An X-factor for this game: Uchenna Nwosu has always been one of the defense’s best at stopping the run. He had a warmup game last week. If he is ready for more and can play to his former standard, he could have a profound impact on this one.

If they can put more of the game in Jordan Love’s hands, they will be more effective. Love has struggled when blitzed or pressured this season. The defense may not create a game-changing play, but taking the offense out of its rhythm and comfort zone goes a long, long way towards winning the game.

Attack the Middle of the Field on Offense

This is a profound weakness for the Packer defense:

Their linebackers and safeties are not great in coverage. Jaire Alexander is out for the game.

The Seahawks need to exploit this weakness liberally. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf need to be running crossing routes all day long. Noah Fant needs a liberal amount of targets.

How do the Seahawks keep Geno Smith clean? Two ways. Just like last week, getting him routes and checkdowns that help him make quick-thinking decisions goes a long way. When the Seahawks make the game easier for him, he is far more effective.

The second is understanding that the Packer pass rush is not invincible. They are among the league’s lower blitzing teams, and are not winning much in their standard sets. If the Seahawks can get these quick passes out, it can lull the defense to sleep a little and set the stage for some properly timed deep shots.

What about the running game?

Same area of the field. Attack the middle.

Have a look at David Montgomery’s run chart from the Lions’ victory in Week Nine:

That is a whole lot of running right up the gut with toughness and grit.

If the Seahawks can capitalize on their newfound confidence in the running game (featuring some more of those great Sataoa Lumea pulling plays to deliver a spring block for Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh), the Seahawks can flip the script and play the game on their terms rather than chasing the Packers.