Draft media is having a Jets-like start to the season

The draft has become such big business that it needs to be talked about constantly. The way to market a draft is to promote players and make them the faces of a class — particularly at quarterback. Sometimes this is easy because the players are there. Sometimes they aren’t and that’s when the problems start.

This summer we saw a number of high profile pundits list Arch Manning as a potential #1 overall pick or the top draft eligible player for 2026. There was zero evidence for this. He showed nothing to back this up in two relief starts for Texas against UL Monroe and Mississippi State. You’d never typically grade a player in that range after two college starts. But this was a Manning, so he headlined nearly every article — mostly because it got the clicks. Fans of bad teams could dream about having the next great Manning as their franchise saviour.

Some knew the deal with Manning and perhaps weren’t under the same editorial pressure to mention him in every piece or podcast. Therefore, in search of an alternative, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik was chosen to be the name who would lead the quarterbacks.

Manning showed he wasn’t ready for the hype (and nobody should’ve expected him to be) and Klubnik was quickly exposed as a limited player with very little pro potential.

So what now?

No defensive linemen were elevating their stock to the top end. Some have tried to push Miami’s Rueben Bain into the top-five but it again feels really forced for a player who is bigger and more power-centric than twitchy. It’s a class light at every premium position — cornerback, left tackle, EDGE.

Attention turned to Dante Moore at Oregon after the win at Penn State. At that point, winning against the Nittany Lions was seen as an achievement. Moore, a former five-star recruit, had pulled off a big win. Penn State going on to lose to UCLA and Northwestern showed it wasn’t quite the big success many thought. Nevertheless, suddenly Moore was everyone’s top player for 2026.

This week Mel Kiper placed him at #1 on his first 2026 big board.

I’m not seeing it. Moore hasn’t played that well. He looks like a player with limited playing experience — because he has limited playing experience. We shouldn’t be pushing him towards the draft, we should be looking forward to watching him play at least one more year for Oregon.

At the moment he’s ranked 39th in college football for QBR (69.6). To compare, Arch Manning isn’t that far behind (67.9). For EPA it’s even worse — he’s ranked 59th (20.3). He’s benefitted from some nice easy games including Oklahoma State before they fired their coach, hapless Oregon State (who have also now fired their coach), Montana State and Northwestern — along with the win at Penn State. The player being talked up as destined to be the #1 pick wasn’t the player you saw on tape.

On Saturday, I thought he played quite poorly in the loss to Indiana. He didn’t look like a first round pick in this game, let alone the #1 overall pick. That Kiper put him at #1 after watching this is extremely surprising, frankly.

I tracked all of his throws in the game and 23 of 34 were high-percentage, easy throws (dump-offs, quick passes to the outside, checkdowns, jet sweeps, RPO’s etc). There were 11 throws that I’d consider semi-challenging or difficult (downfield throws, layered passes, throws requiring anticipation or throws over the middle in traffic). He completed just two of those passes.

His accuracy was off all game. Too often when Indiana took away his first read he would set off to run but with no purpose, making him easy to track down and tackle. He didn’t look elusive or much of a runner and as soon as the eyes dropped and the legs started moving, it was pretty much the end of the play. He took too many sacks (six on the day) and his best run was a four-yard gain.

His first interception was on a tipped pass but the second was just Indiana jumping the latest easy dump-off. You can only do that so often before the defense will gamble and win.

I was shocked how he barely threw downfield. His touchdown, a 44-yard throw, came on a total bust in coverage where he could’ve arm-punted the ball to his receiver if he wanted to.

I didn’t see any technically challenging NFL throws, any real command of the offense, any difference making physical talent or an ability to elevate his team against a tough opponent. He looked exactly like a player figuring things out at the start of his career — because that’s what he is.

There wasn’t a single thing about this display that said Moore is ready for the NFL, should be remotely considering turning pro or warranted the lofty praise the media have been giving him. Indiana were deserved winners, 30-20.

Yet we’re being told he’s the top player in the draft. Really?

Now let’s discuss the other quarterback in the game, Fernando Mendoza. He too is being massively talked up by draft media as a possible top-10 pick. This is despite the fact he plays in a RPO-heavy offense that is so incredibly challenging to project to the next level.

He ranks 7th for QBR (84.6) which is at least better than Moore’s 39th. However, for EPA, he’s only 28th (31.7).

On the first play he fakes the handoff so he’s opting to pass and then locks onto his #1 target Elijah Sarratt. He lingers on him so long, then throws a back-shoulder throw which is perfectly delivered, with the receiver equally doing his job flawlessly for a nice gain. In the pro’s, you can’t hold on to that throw. It needs to come out with anticipation quickly. If you sit there eyeing it up for three-and-a-half seconds the ball is getting played or picked.

They love the back-shoulder type throws to the outside and go to it all the time. It’s a limited playbook executed well. There’s a ton of short range stuff off the fake hand-off and a lot of throws to the sideline. He does his job well but I’m not even sure we’re seeing the variety of throws that Kurtis Rourke delivered in this system.

It’s only fair to highlight what a brilliant job Curt Cignetti does with this offense and the results are there for all to see.

However, with his quarterback I just see a player benefitting from the system who isn’t an elusive, creative player. There’s never any improv. He threw a horrendous pick-six off his back-foot — just lofting it up in the air for one of the easiest scores a defender could wish for. His accuracy is not pinpoint (there were multiple off-target throws in this game). He doesn’t challenge downfield with a great arm. When he throws on the run the ball tends to die. His best throws are to the sideline and he’s had some good moments there. There’s not much evidence of progression-based quarterbacking and no evidence of working under center.

Is Mendoza a first round pick? Not for me. Yet on Kiper’s board he’s the #3 overall player.

It doesn’t just come down to these two though. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is also often touted as a high pick but is nowhere close to being ready to turn pro. He’s miles away from round one, as emphasised by a wretched performance against LSU on Saturday. He’s ranked 59th for QBR. On Kiper’s board he’s the 21st overall prospect. How? Why?

The best quarterback in college football at the moment is Ty Simpson and it’s not even close. We’ve been talking about him for a while now and it won’t be long before the draft media start projecting him in the same range as these others. At least with Simpson the tape somewhat warrants the chatter — but even then, he’s still raw with only a handful of starts to his name and he’d be best served returning to college like the rest of the names here next year.

That said, my word is he just on a different level.

Unlike the others who play in limited systems with a ton of high-percentage throws, Simpson is out there taking the game to opponents. He attacks the middle of the field. He delivers complex, NFL-level throws every week. He fits the football into tight windows, he looks off defenders, he layers passes in-between defenders. He excels on third down.

None of the other quarterbacks I’ve talked about in this piece have made a throw like Simpson does here (with the exception of one Mendoza throw):

On Saturday, unbeaten Missouri wasn’t an easy place to play and Alabama were 7-0 down early. This was Simpson’s response on the next drive. A big third down completion, avoiding pressure, stepping into the pocket and delivering. Then a bootleg to the right, running for a nine-yard gain. A good throw to the tight end Josh Cuevas, followed by another 3rd down conversion in the red zone. He finishes off the drive with an angle route to the running back for a touchdown — knowing exactly where he wanted to go.

The crowd were quietened and he looked and played like a pro. He’s composed, his execution is top level and he lit up the field.

Look at his second touchdown. It’s on 3rd and 12 so a difficult down and distance. He drops, sets and there’s no hesitation. This is a NFL throw through traffic into the end zone. Absolutely fantastic:

Can he run and improvise? Yep. Look at this scramble to convert a 3rd and 4 running up the middle. He shows great instinct, decision making and athleticism. It’s a 20-yard run (he just needs to learn to slide at the end):

Again, I’ll keep saying it. The next video below is what a NFL quarterback looks like. There’s no RPO or dump-off or jet-screen here. This is a passer on 2nd and 9 going through his progressions (look at his helmet) and despite facing quick pressure right in his face (he gets levelled after the throw) he spots an open target and with zero hesitation getting the ball out on time and on target. And look at the receiver — this wasn’t a wide-open easy chuck into the flat. This is a first round play:

Most players get sacked on that play and it’s drive over.

Look at this throw on 4th and 8. Imagine if he doesn’t make this, with Alabama only holding a three-point lead in the fourth quarter:

He finished this drive with a red zone throw on 4th and goal to ice the game.

This is the quarterback of the year so far. Since the difficult game at Florida State on the opening weekend, where everyone played badly for Alabama and it was his first true start as the unchallenged quarterback of the team, his QBR is 87.3 from the following five games. That includes games against Missouri and Georgia on the road and the upstart Vanderbilt at home.

He has 18 total touchdowns and just one interception so far this season (the pick came on a fourth down where he might as well throw it anyway).

He is extremely impressive. He also takes snaps under center — something a lot of college QB’s never do.

If there’s one quibble it’s that he takes too many sacks. He needs to work on this but I’m tempted to say for the improv quality and playmaking, it’s a consolation prize to let him play with some freedom.

I read a piece a few days ago where Jordan Reid for ESPN ranked Moore, Mendoza and Sellers as the three ‘hottest’ draft eligible quarterbacks in college football.

Nobody should be ranked higher than Simpson at quarterback right now and it’s not close. If I was a GM being told by the owner I must draft a quarterback at all costs in 2026, this is the player I would choose. Garrett Nussmeier has been too injured to properly assess and has failed to remove the ugly turnovers from his game. John Mateer has rushed back from injury too quickly and didn’t look close to being right against Texas. Arkansas’ Taylen Green would be a good day-two bet if I had that freedom to wait.

If I didn’t, Simpson’s the guy. I just hope when he gets the hype that the others have been afforded, he’ll consider staying in college. There is no need to rush to the NFL and a second year starting at Alabama would be wise. Hone your craft, live through positive and negative experiences. Enjoy college. Then turn pro.

At least with his technical quality you can understand why he might feel like he’s ready for the NFL. Moore isn’t close to being ready, neither is Sellers.

It’s not working for Garrett Nussmeier

He came into the season the legit QB1 for his class because he threw the highest number of NFL throws last season. However, either his mind is scrambled at the moment and he’s forcing things to try and impress, the injuries have just taken their toll and he shouldn’t be out there or he’s just a player who will always press and making mistakes.

Against South Carolina he had a bad overthrow on an interception, then a poor red zone pick. He started the season well but the mistakes have returned and he hasn’t taken the step forward he was hoping to in 2025. In the right system I still think he can shine — and that’d be a Shanahan/McVay/O’Connell type scheme. If he lasts to the middle rounds he could even end up being something of a steal. But it seems unlikely he will go in the top-50 based on what we’re seeing at the moment.

He wasn’t as bad as LaNorris Sellers in this game though. Again, he should either return to South Carolina or transfer somewhere he can develop because at the moment he’s just a tools-based project.

Taylen Green remains interesting

Every time I watch Arkansas I half expect Green to have a bad performance and ground his stock. Yet even during blowouts, it’s been hard to pin anything on the quarterback. He has a decent arm and he has shown an ability to make explosive plays. He’s a genuine threat as a runner and I maintain that there’s a bit of Colin Kaepernick to his playing style — although his throwing mechanics are superior.

I think there’s half a chance he could be a day two player who, for the right team, could emerge as a handy starter. Physically he has what you need in the modern NFL. He ranks second in college for QBR (90.1) and EPA (52.3).

Makai Lemon is a quality receiver

Once again he showed off a great skill-set in USC’s easy win against Michigan. Body control, ball-tracking, concentration, hands, speed. Lemon had nine catches for 93 yards and a score.

Here’s the touchdown and as you can see, he’s really had to contort his body in traffic to make the grab:

I think in a typical draft class he’d likely go somewhere between 25-40 but in 2026, with such a dearth of good options, he could go earlier.

Mike Washington Jr is a running back to watch

The Arkansas transfer is big, physical, finishes runs but also has some quickness and ability to dodge tacklers. He really stood out against Tennessee so I watched some more of his stuff over the last few days. There’s a player here.

Not many runners have this kind of burst at a listed 6-2 and 223lbs:

Bobby Petrino, the interim Head Coach at Arkansas, has compared him to Knile Davis — a former third round pick in 2013. Washington Jr is one to watch, especially if the Seahawks need to add a back next year.

Other notes

— I had Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt on my board last year as a third rounder and in his last two performances against Iowa and Oregon he’s showing why he could go in that range. I’m not convinced he’ll be an amazing tester with a high NFL ceiling. However, he is technically good and runs clever, crisp routes. He understands what he’s doing and plays with a competitive edge. He’s reliable (only two drops for the season). I like him.

— I’m less sure why Oregon tight end Kenyon Sidiq is appearing in the top-15 of mocks. Sure, he looks athletic and compact. Yet in the big game on Saturday he had one catch for 13 yards until a garbage time eight-yard reception. You’d like to think an offense like Oregon’s, which featured Terrance Ferguson in big games frequently, would get him more involved if he justified that type of projection. The desperation to ‘find’ names this year has been on a different level.

— A different Oregon player is very interesting. A’Mauri Washington the defensive tackle had a fantastic bull-rush against Indiana showing his great combination of power and mobility to walk an interior lineman back into the quarterback:

It’s rare to see this level of quickness on a player listed at 6-3 and 330lbs:

Washington ranked #4 on Bruce Feldman’s latest freaks list, reportedly running at 20.89mph and vertical jumping 36 inches. Now it’s worth noting in other games this season I haven’t noticed him that much. He isn’t a big pressure or sack artist. At the moment he’s more potential than game-wrecker and at the next level he might be more useful as an athletic nose who takes a bit of time to work things out.

Even so — he’s doing things most people his size can’t. That needs to be noted.

— Sometimes you’ve got to save a player from himself. Yes, Oklahoma probably started dreaming about winning the SEC and going on a great run before John Mateer hurt his hand and needed surgery. It was clear watching on Saturday he wasn’t ready to play. Oklahoma were awful and so was the QB as they lost to Texas. His accuracy was off all day — throwing behind (including on his second of three interceptions). His dynamic playmaking was totally stymied. It was sad, really, to watch a player who is so much better than this endure such a performance. He only turns 22 next April so he might be back for the Sooners in 2026.

— Drew Allar is undraftable. It’s been trending that way for a while but the latest horror show against Northwestern followed by a season-ending injury confirms it. He’ll probably have to consider returning to school next year to repair his stock. Whatever they’ve been teaching him at Penn State is just atrocious. We’ve talked all year about his tendency to throw late. Look at this interception from Saturday:

Look how late it is. He keeps doing this — holding onto the ball, delaying. The target looks like he’s shaping for a back-shoulder throw but it’s so late there’s no chance. It’s a sad story really, just how far he’s fallen this year. But you can’t draft him playing this way and now with an injury. It’s rough.

— Last week I mentioned Arvell Reese the linebacker at Ohio State could be another Abdul Carter. Look at this rush from the edge against Illinois for further validation of that:

He’s getting more and more opportunities to rush for the Buckeye’s. It’s the type of rush that’s worth noting. He isn’t just running around a limited tackle with speed. He’s attacking that tackle and just bossing him back into the quarterback with power. If you can do that at 240lbs, with a quick-twitchy athletic frame, he can be a huge weapon. He’s one of the few players this year that you can say with a degree of certainty will be a high pick if he declares.

— It’s good to see Jalen Catalon playing well again. The safety is on his fourth team now after spells at Arkansas, Texas, UNLV and now Missouri. The injuries over the years have clearly taken their toll and I’m not sure he’ll be drafted when the time comes to turn pro. I thought he performed well against Alabama. He’ll be 25-years-old by the time of the 2026 draft.