This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

What a strange exercise looking at the NFL schedule is.

In August, this matchup against the Colts was a speedbump. A pretty easy win for the Seahawks that was just a stepping stone toward the final three-game gauntlet of games.  Sure, the Colts had Jonathan Taylor and a good Offensive Line but they signed Daniel Jones to compete with Anthony Richardson for the Quarterback job.  The guy the Giants cut and spent a few weeks as QB3 in Minnesota.

By mid-October, the outlook had completely changed.  Jones was in a groove, flourishing in Shane Steichen’s offense.  Jonathan Taylor was looking like an Offensive Player of the Year candidate and their defense was doing just enough to get by.  A massive trade for Sauce Gardner confirmed the team felt like they were ready to make a run.

And now here the Colts are, back to speedbump status.  Daniel Jones is lost for the season with an Achilles injury and they will not have Gardner, Charvarius Ward, DeForest Bucker and Braden Smith (their starting Right Tackle) available due to injury.  They have been forced to bring Philip Rivers in to start at Quarterback.  He has been retired for almost five years.

If you could craft a warmup for the Game of the Year on Thursday night, this would be it.  The Seahawks will have a huge talent advantage and while there are some unknowns, that will help sharpen their anticipation for what Sean McVay will throw at them.

With so much that will be off script, I thought the Watch Points should follow suit and be a collection of some thoughts on this matchup.

Attacking the Colt Defense

Indianapolis’ defense is right about league-average in the number of points they concede.  They excel at run defense and are poor in pass defense.

They are not used to carrying the team this year and yet that is what they will need to do if the Colts are to have a chance in this game.

It will not be easy.

The Colts will be running out backups at both cornerback spots against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed.  They blitz a fair amount but their numbers conceded when they blitz are crazy:

This could help Sam Darnold get ready for the Rams matchup.  Pressure led him to make some unfortunate decisions that led to four interceptions.  Getting blitzed with multiple offensive options at his disposal who should be able to win their one-on-one matchups can help tune him up to face the Rams.

The Colts are one of the bottom teams in the NFL on Third Downs, conceding 43.4%.  They do tighten up in the Red Zone and that will be where the game is decided.  Settling for Field Goals will not be the worst thing given their defensive matchup.  Again though, seeing some execution would be a welcome site and confidence booster.

The Colts are one of the NFL’s worst defenses against offenses who line up under center.

Opposing Quarterbacks have a 108.5 rating, their first down percentage is one of the NFL’s highest and the Colts only have four sacks in over 300 plays.

Which is helpful, because the Seahawks run their offense under center about 57% of plays.  They know how to work under the center.

Another:  While the Colts are one of the NFL’s better defenses against the run, Daniel Jones and the offense have been very effective and taking that feature of opposing offenses away with scoreboard pressure.

However, in the first half, the defense is conceding 4.4 yards per carry on the ground.  While the offense should be able to move freely down the field with passes, establishing the run should be a goal and with a depleted defense, this should be an opportunity to enforce their will on the team.

When the Seahawks Are on Defense

Tackling and keeping Yards After Catch down will be a key against Rivers.

In his last season, Rivers was among the shortest passers in the NFL, with one of the best Yards After Catch numbers.  Steichen relied on him to get rid of the ball quickly, distribute the ball around the field and let the receivers make things happen with their feet.

I think it is fair to expect a game like this from Rivers:

This chart is from Week Nine of the 2020 season.

Look at all those passes five yards past the line of scrimmage or less.  Any pass beyond 10 yards is a 50/50 proposition and the Seahawks have Julian Love, Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen able to defend down the field.

Expect a ton of short screen passes, particularly involving Tyler Warren.

Warren is the fifth-most targeted Tight End in the NFL but he has one of the shortest Average Depth of Targets at five yards.  Nick Emmanwori, Ernest Jones and Julian Love swarming to the ball will be critical.

The same is true of Jonathan Taylor.  He currently leads the NFL in rushing yards, first downs and touchdowns.  He also is on track for a career-high in targets in the passing game.

The natural inclination is to assume that Steichen will load up Taylor with touches in this game.  He might reach 100 yards rushing just simply due to getting 30 or more rushes.

He will have his moments in this game but the offense should keep him in check by putting scoreboard pressure on the Colts.