This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
Nothing is given. Everything is earned.
The Seahawks are on the precipice of a fourth trip to the Super Bowl after a remarkably successful season. In their way stand the Rams, every bit their equal in so many ways.
In a season absent the dominance of traditional NFL superpowers Kansas City and Philadelphia, and with very good second class teams like Baltimore and Detroit taking steps back, Seattle and Los Angeles have put together seasons that are arguably as good as any in recent NFL history.
This is not an ‘off year’ for the league, with some plucky underdog making a run that will soon become a major motion picture. Both teams have every right to consider their seasons to this point among the best in franchise history.
And with all due respect to the Broncos and Patriots, this game is as the 2013 NFC Championship Game was: A battle of the NFL’s two best teams.
Both know the other will not stand aside and let them run their game plans exactly as outlined and waive them into the Super Bowl. It is going to need to be earned, yard by yard. Whoever game plans and adjusts the best, and executes and plays with poise the best, will advance.
Since the blockbuster Week Sixteen meeting in Seattle, the Rams have lost in Atlanta in a game controlled mostly by the Falcons, won at home against the Cardinals by pulling away in the fourth quarter and then won both of their playoff games on the road by a field goal each while playing nowhere near their best football.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks went to Carolina and battled to a draw at halftime. Since then they have been dominant. They pulled away in the second half to beat the Panthers handily and then whipped their other archrival (San Francisco) in consecutive games.
The Seahawks have the momentum. They have the workload advantage which is crucial. And they are playing at home with a crowd hungry for a return to the Super Bowl.
There are any number of statistics you could point to that historically says the Seahawks have the advantage. Mike Macdonald is perfect in rematches. It is incredibly hard for any team to win three playoff road games in a row. Teams from domed stadiums have a terrible record on the road in the conference championship games. And on and on.
We all know, however, that in a single elimination game with two of the best teams there is no resting on those trends. You either add to the trend or become the exception. And it comes down to some critical factors.
Playing With Poise is a Must
If you have read any of my writeups this season, you will know I have been harping on this. It is too important a factor to not be at the top of the list for this game.
Week 16’s game alone is proof of that.
Cooper Kupp is not stripped in the Red Zone just before halftime and the Seahawks get at least three points (and maybe seven).
Zach Charbonnet does not have the presence of mind to pick up a seemingly dead ball in the end zone on a two-point try and the game is not tied with six minutes to play.
Harrison Mevis does not push a 48-yard Field Goal try wide with two minutes to play and we may or may not have gotten Overtime.
The Rams are so well-coached they not only have poise; they force their opponents to not have it in ways that can bend the outcome of the game in their favor.
The Panthers – perhaps fearing the Rams’ scoring prowess – made the poor decision to go for it on fourth down in the first drive of the game on their side of the field. They doubled down on that decision by not running the ball with their rugged Running Backs – behind their $100 million duo of guards – but by calling a cute pass play that fails. Four plays later, the whole sequence becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as the Rams are up 7-0 and the Panthers are playing from behind until the fourth quarter.
The following week, the Bears make a whole litany of mistakes. Drops by their receivers – who seemed unprepared to play in the cold somehow – constantly kill momentum. Again, the Bears go for it on fourth down in key spots only to come away with no points. Caleb Williams threw three interceptions, the third a gaffe that showed zero situational awareness. Ben Johnson decided not to go for two points late in regulation with every bit of momentum on his side after his Quarterback had completed a touchdown pass that had all the hallmarks of a fait accompli moment that Bears fans would tell their grandkids about a decade later.
Both of the Seahawks’ games against the Rams could have swung the other way with just the flap of a butterfly’s wings. In both, the loser outgained the winner by over 165 yards!
Let’s talk about that for a moment.
In the two games combined, only one yard of offense and one point separates them. So, these two games are as physically close to being ties as they can get, right?
Wrong. The Seahawks had seven turnovers in those two games. Seven! The Rams? One.
A +6 ratio in two games usually leads to two solid wins, if not blowouts. The fact that the Seahawks turned the ball over that much and were still a hair’s breadth away from winning both games means they fundamentally played better overall football.
But none of that matters if they do not play with poise in this game.
All that said, poise is not some magical ingredient. You can manufacture it – or even take it completely out of the equation – by your game play.
The best way the Seahawks can do that?
Win the Game in the Trenches
I hate to reduce two fantastic games down to one stat. We just talked about all the variables in those games. But there is a truth that cannot be ignored. It is the elephant in the room.
In Week Eleven, when Stafford had arguably his worst game of the season? The Seahawks pressured him at a 28.6% pressure rate.
Week Sixteen, when he threw for 457 yards, his highest total of the season? The Seahawks defense – this incredible, nickname-worthy defense – only recorded a microscopic 9.8% pressure rate.
You get the sense the defense is grateful for another shot at Stafford after that poor showing. They will need to be far, far better. Getting their trademark ‘pressure with four’ will be absolutely critical. Why?
Stafford has never been a high-completion rate guy. He mixes a bunch of short passes with downfield shots that are deadly. When he has pressure in his face, he can get out of sorts and make poor decisions. He also occasionally trusts his world-class arm too much and allows his mechanics to get sloppy under pressure.
In Week Eleven, Stafford was 2-of-8 with no touchdowns on passes longer than ten yards, a meager 25% completion rate.
In Week Sixteen? 10-of-18 for 56% with a touchdown.
The two prior playoff games that were so close? 14-of-44 for 32%, with two touchdowns and an interception.
That is a key factor in why those two games were so close. Both defenses – not exactly titans of rushing the passer (#31 and #22 overall this year) – were able to make Stafford uncomfortable enough to not be that deadly weapon in the deeper passing game.
The Rams love to creatively get the ball to players like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams close to the Line of Scrimmage and let them get yards with their feet and their toughness. It complements the run game well and allows Stafford the room to take deeper shots and not kill the offense if all he can get is 50% of them.
The Seahawks are a sure tackling team though. When they have guys in their sights, they regularly get them to the ground. That particular combo of not allowing too many Yards After the Catch on shorties and pressuring Stafford on deeper throws can be extremely effective if timed up right.
How do they accomplish that? I will let Brian Baldinger explain that. It is a chess match. A game of cat and mouse.
And it is a huge reason why the Seahawks hired Mike Macdonald to be their head coach.
On offense, the line must improve in their pass protection. It will be critical for this game. Why?
Last week, Sam Darnold’s role was not pivotal. Special Teams gave them a lead they never relinquished and the running game was working beautifully. San Francisco had to chase the game and that added some fuel to the fire, with some key turnovers.
The game this week will not likely work that way. Darnold will have a much bigger role, particularly with Zach Charbonnet out for the season.
And here is a bit of an inconvenient truth: Last week Darnold was sacked twice and pressured at a rate of 26%. Seattle’s run blocking was terrific. The pass blocking was not.
When you consider how banged up San Francisco was — and that the Rams will line up Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske — you see how critical it will be that line plays much better.
No doubt Klint Kubiak will dial up some creative plays to get the ball out of Sam Darnold’s hands quickly. There will come a handful of plays where he will need a little bit of time though. If the Rams decide to stack the box to stop the running game, there will be opportunities to make some deeper throws to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed.
The chess match on this side of the ball should also be very intriguing to watch unfold.
Game Notes
— Special Teams has played a huge part of the two games. It could once again come down to a punt, a return, or a Field Goal try. The Rams have been both good and bad in those games. The Seahawks have been mostly stellar, as they have all season.
— Speaking of the ‘go for it on fourth down’ craze, it should be noted that Mike Macdonald has only gone for it one time in the two games. It was a fourth and one and they used A.J. Barner to plow forward and get it. In Week Eleven, regularly making the decision to take the points allowed them to stay in the game despite four Darnold interceptions and they almost won it on an admirable 61-yard try by Myers.
— Macdonald is not ultra-conservative though. He went for two points in Overtime of Week Sixteen with the game, the division and a potential first round bye on the line. So, let’s not shove him into back of the refrigerator with the expired yogurt that is the old-school coaching mentality just yet.
— Nick Emmanwori will once again be a key player. Devon Witherspoon as well. They allow the Seahawks to play ‘small’ on defense but still be stout against the run as well as Tight End types. Emmanwori had touchdown-saving tackles at the one-yard line in both games. In Week Eleven, the Rams scored eventually. In Week Sixteen, the defense held them to a Field Goal. Again, it is the little things like that that may decide the game. Both are extremely effective at showing blitz before the snap but retreating to their assignments with enough speed to keep their positioning. A bit of ‘who is coming’ misdirection combined with strong games from Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence could be the difference in the game.
