Watched/listened to this earlier this morning. Thanks as always for your efforts and multiple platform access Rob.
line_hawk
Not a bad deal for Broncos. Its a lot for a QB but that’s the going rate. Its not a market setting deal like Jamal Adams got even though Wilson had all the leverage. We used to talk about all the drama from Wilson’s camp before every extension; but this deal happened without any drama. May be our front office was at fault?
Trevor
What are you talking about? There was no drama because they gave him $245 million / $165 million guaranteed.
They can have him at that price. This year is going to suck but this team was never winning an SB with Russ. We have a ton of draft capital next off season and should be able to get a good young QB to build around with so key pieces like the OT’s, RB and WRs already in place.
and should be able to get a good young QB to build around
Fair few teams will tell you… if only it was as simple as that
Trevor
That’s true but with there are also numerous teams who have done just that as well. I would prefer this route to another mediocre season and first round playoff loss and being tied to an aging QB who relied on his athleticism to be special.
Peter
The ship has sailed and this is the direction of the team now. Here’s to a great young qb and this path.
But let’s be right it’s not actually a ton of teams doing that. It’s the Chiefs, the ravens, the steelers, the giants, the patriots, and us. This century. And all the winning teams that pulled that feat off with a rookie contracted qb had top 5 defenses except the ravens.
This defense needs a massive upgrade to be in that mix in two years to be in that conversation.
Cambs
I’m amazed any Seahawks fan can be sanguine about reloading at this position. The franchise spent its first 35 years being congenitally incapable of finding a premium quarterback, including whiffed 1.02 Rick Mirer and trading another first for Kelly Stouffer. The QB on the all-time Hawks team pre-Russ would be either Hass or Mudbone.
If the Jags don’t pick a dang punter instead of RW3, Seattle fans are the only ones who remember the LOB and they argue over microbrews about how high it might have soared had Clipboard Jesus and rookie contract Geno only elevated the offense a little bit.
509 Chris
This is so true. Seahawk fans act like it’s a forgone conclusion that THIS front office is going to draft the next Patrick Mahomes in the 23 draft. What in the last 5 drafts leads us to believe these guys can turn a mediocre roster without its future hof QB to a superbowl contender in 2 years?
Sea Mode
This last draft gives me some hope that they might have come to their senses a bit and adopted more of a long-term plan as far as taking the talent available at premium positions and not forcing cute luxury picks.
But I also know: hope is a dangerous drug…
Parallax
What happened in 2013 might have been a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing. Only one team wins it all each year and rarely is there a performance so dominating following a season so exciting. With a young team that seems to have the potential to do it again and again. God only knows if we’ll get back to that sort of territory. I don’t count on it. But it’s exciting to watch as we try.
This team might well have won another super bowl with Russ if Pete and John were capable of continuing to draft well.
Tallyhawk
They didn’t need to draft any better to win another SB. They just needed to hand the ball to Beastmode. If they did that they win at the least one more. That one play derailed everything they built to that point. It was a slow painful fall from there.
I wasn’t counting that fiasco but yeah, you’re 100% correct imo.
Tim
Trevor,
I offer you a warning — despite rather agreeing with you.
The hit/bust rate on first round QBs isn’t fantastic — something between 50 and 60%. We’re more in a situation where we can hope that they have a chance to draft an excellent QB prospect, hope that they give him excellent coaching, hope that he has an innate talent to read and track the game in addition to that arm talent, and hope that they have another good draft that puts pieces around him.
It seems to me that the best that we can be is quietly hopeful. And yeah.. to let the team tank for a year while playing and developing its best young talent.
I see the word “hope” in there a lot and I agree Tim, it’s a lot of hope to get another franchise QB. It is hardly an exact science e.g. Mayfield, Couch, Darnold, Rosen et.al. My guy yells me Trevor only cares that we’re rid of Wilson. There’s definitely a portion of the fanbase that feels that way, an inordinate portion imo considering his performance over the last decade. I find it very strange.
Peter
I agree. I think it’s easy to see the young guns and point to them and miss the nearly countless qb’s teams have started since 2012 that have gone on to do next to nothing.
Heck there’s really good players like Cousins. Making his money. Good to very good stats. Going to play a long time in the league. Where’s the win(s) of the games that matter? Prescott? Not my favorite but not terrible. Heck. Tony Romo before was no slouch. Rivers.
Just seems that fans think you just snap your fingers and there’s a bad ass qb. And forget the teams like the dolphins, the bills with an almost 30 year search, etc, and importantly the Seahawks. Hope I’m wrong but feels as likely that we could be walking into the woods on a search that goes on for twenty years.
A contract like that would not have stopped us from winning with Russ. The ineptitude of the coach and GM to build a roster would have been the reason. Contracts like that only become albatrosses if you stink at drafting, adding other talent, and maximizing that talent.
Roy Batty
And didn’t the Rams just win the SB with over $50 million invested in the QB position?
Dubb
Great observation, LineHawk. It’s definitely our front office. I don’t believe that Russell Wilson could be more difficult than Aaron Rogers or Kyler Murray. Those GM’s made it work. Pete and John just chose not to negotiate with Russ and fed the media a bunch of garbage about how difficult Russ and his agent were. Denver got it done pretty easily.
Parallax
I think the Hawks did the right thing in moving on from Russ when we did. We weren’t going to make another deep playoff run with him at the helm. We were stuck in a rut with a QB who would decline over time. We needed a serious infusion of draft capital and cap space. Was best for all concerned for Wilson to go to a team with enough talent to make a deep run.
rowlandice
This team as constructed should be a top 3 pick. My nightmare scenario is the Hawks are on the clock and have their choice of all the QB’s and…trade down. They take Bryce Young and say that was their guy all along. With extra 2nd round pick they get – they take a safety.
ALLhawk
Is anybody else surprised Mark Rodgers and Wilson didn’t try to get more from the Broncos? They had all the leverage… Mark Rodgers has seemed obsessed with getting a % of salary cap or a fully guaranteed deal for RW… Seems like a big change in mentality.
Peter
Simms and florio discussed this and florio thought the team with new ownership was unlikely or unwilling to do a big escrow of guarantees.
Simms brought up counter to what we hear or speculate that Wilson may have realized that a big contract now but lesser so in a few years as the cap goes up means Wilson might acknowledge that there is a need for more money to go around to retain players.
Sea Mode
I think a 33 y/o (34 in Nov.) QB getting an extension until he’s 40 with a big guarantee up front is pretty solid, considering most QBs don’t age like Brady or even Rodgers into their late 30’s. Maybe Russ will join them as exceptions, maybe he wont. Still a pretty huge risk for the Broncos.
Plus, if he does play well and the QB market keeps going up, he’ll be back asking for a raise midway through the deal anyways and will still likely have all the leverage.
Sea Mode
Well it seems the Broncos are off the hook after the first 3 years, but had to pay a hefty price for that in the first 3 years:
Tom Pelissero
@TomPelissero
· 18h
#Broncos QB Russell Wilson’s new contract gives him a $33 million raise in 2022, from $24M to $57M. He gets $85M total over two years (up from $51M he had left on his old deal) and $124M over three, while Denver locks up another four non-guaranteed years on top of it.
Cortez Kennedy
Bet he plays it out until the end
Parallax
What you wrote is exactly what I was thinking. There’s a real chance the Broncos will regret this deal. A much smaller chance Russ regrets it.
Gaux Hawks
1) Really enjoyed reading about Joey Blount, hope he finds success in Seattle
2) I’d like to see the Chargers surprise everyone and win it all this year
3) Being on the Broncos makes it much easier to dislike RW3
4) Blake Martinez !?!?
Peter
Feels like it’s the Bill’s time. Have the chargers even one a play off game yet?
Coach
What are your thoughts on Blake Martinez? We need linebacker depth and he’s been a quality player when healthy. Would he be better than Barton? Anyone else out there at LB?
Go Hawks!
UkAlex6674
I am under no illusions this year. We have a lot of potential/unknowns on the roster that could play out to be good, but equally, it may go south rapidly.
Personally I think it will be the former. By good I don’t mean a winning season, but by – as many of you have said – player and coaching development. We have so many new faces you can’t help be excited no matter it will probably be a losing season.
Peter
Just hoping to see the players develop. And who doesn’t give up if tge going gets tough.
Sea Mode
How much is PC paying under the table for the league to randomly put out tweets like this…?
They are all excited to watch Wilson torch his former team. If this were just the run of the mill big name QB going against a bad team, they wouldn’t bother to tune in. However, the Seahawks have created a lot of haters over the years and this game has turned into a dream scenario comeuppance for those haters.
Ironically, the few people I work with who root for SF and LA want the Hawks to destroy Wilson. They are realistic with their expectations regarding the Seahawks. They know the franchise is in rough shape. They know we won’t compete for a playoff spot. So they are focussing all their bad karma directly at the guy they have never liked.
It’s kind of hilarious walking around, listening to all the different takes.
Cambs
lol as an accelerationist Hawks fan i feel this way also. Getting their doors blown off by Russ en route to 1-16 feels like the only form of accountability that Pete and John can ever receive.
(And I remember Rob being really impressed with his Combine drills. If pre-season form is to be believed, I will have been wrong to not like him!)
Sea Mode
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
·20h
Titans are signing former Chiefs’ WR Josh Gordon to their practice squad, per his agent
@zachiller of @LAASportsEnt, who said, “The comeback continues.”
Sea Mode
PS level, precisely…
Jeremy Fowler
@JFowlerESPN
·13h
WR Freddie Swain signing with #Dolphins practice squad, per source. Had several options after Seattle release, chose Miami.
Peter
Nothing at all against gordon but a nearly 32 year old player on a practice squad isn’t a comeback. That makes it seem like he was brutally injured and has been working day and night to use his arms or legs. Gordon had a monumental season almost ten years ago. Two good but not particularly amazing seasons after and has been on a laundry list of teams doing nearly nothing.
Would be cool as hell if at 32 he caught like 40 passes for 400 yards. I just don’t see it.
KD
But he needs to be suspended again because….um….the tested positive for polyhydocholisyphilacid.
Josh Gordon is barometer for 2 things:
1.) How far the NFL is willing to push issues like this on a single player
2.) How long are fans willing to tolerate things like this
The answer is:
1,) A lot, because no one cares beyond this season
2.) A lot, because no one cares beyond this season
An update on Walker. He’s getting “closer” according to Carroll but we all know how Pete tends to be overly optimistic with injuries so take it with a grain I suppose. I’m really dying to see the kid run the football so hoping it’s sooner rather than later.
Peter
Please let this be a real getting closer and not a Pete speak where getting closer means nothing.
Easily one of the players I want to see a ton of this year. And the only scenario where I see this team in games this year is if Walker plays and penny gets on the field consistently.
Kind of hope Walker and the new line is so good I don’t even need to think about penny.
Kyle R
I’m sort of deflated and melancholy about Walker too Big Mike. Walker, growth of the O-line and growth of the corners were my things to watch and get excited for this season, knowing they weren’t going to get wins this year. Hope I already don’t have to cross Walker off that list.
Stuart
“Biggest draft in franchise history,” well said Rob!
The other day Hugh Millen was on a rant about the so called QB competition. Sorry i dont have the link but man was it good.
Both he and coach Holmgren agreed. They compared Lock to a poor man’s Brett Favre, gunslinger.
Favre through 24 pics his 1st full season under coach Holmgren. By playing and working with the gunslinger Favre, the pics went from 24 down to 13.
The Hawks have zero to lose and everything to gain. I dont think we have the right coaches for that job.
This season i am predicting 4 wins. Broncos e total was downgraded to 9 wins by a Denver site.
For fun. What would you rather in 1st round?
LEVIS
BPA
or
BPA
Van Dyke
Peter
To illustrate how competitive the afc west is going to be:
My under bet would be the Niners, I think Lance is about to bust and Jimmy G is not ready.
UkAlex6674
I think a lot of people are getting caught out by the QB situation. at the 49ers. Bottom line is they still have one of the best rosters in the NFC if not NFL, and will have a good play off season regardless.
509 Chris
Without Jimmy that team got to draft Bosa. Pick 2 if I remember right. The next year with him back they went to the SB. Great roster or not, they don’t win without acceptable qb play.
Peter
Niners under feels right with the qb situation.
Peter
Edit. September 1st:
Broncos: 10.5
GoHawks5151
Gotta let a gun slinger sling. I think Lock will start at some point.
As for your question, in my mind Russ has nagging injuries and Denver underperforms landing around the 10th pick. We suck and land behind 2 QB needy teams and take Will Anderson. Cristobals offense dampens Van Dyke enough that he lasts to Denver’s pick. I will dream this unto existence for us all.
Trevor
I agree. Dream scenario is Will Anderson with the first pick and Levis or Van Dyke with the Denver pick. Then try to add a penetrating DT in Rd #2 along with a long term answer at Center.
Pretty sad that I am already focused on next years draft and the Hawks have not even played a game yet.
Trevor
If PC/JS goal was to build a roster to compete, have a 10-6 season and exit in the first round they have failed miserably. However if the goal was to draft young talent at premium positions (OT, Edge, CB) and give them a year to develop while putting themselves in position to have a top 5 pick + another 1st rounder then this was a masterful offseason. Geno / Lock atQB almost assures that.
I for one think this was certainly the plan. Seems to me that JS has more power now in the organization and that is why they are going this route. Even this draft seemed to lack Pete’s fingerprints being all over it and that is a positive. I can’t think of the last time a team drafted potentially 2 starting OT, 2 starting CB and an impact Edge Rusher in the same draft. They still have to go out and prove it on the field but early signs are very positive and that puts the team in a great spot going forward.
I have been a Hawks fan for 42 yrs and have never been more frustrated than the last couple of years with Russ at QB and a first round playoff loss all but assured. There is no guarantee they find a QB in the draft but if they do then they have a shot to compete for a SB in a year or two. With Russ they had no chance.
“With Russ they had no chance”. And I’ll say it again, had they put the proper team around Russ by drafting well, and not wasting picks on Adams, etc. they would have had a BETTER chance to get to a Super Bowl than the path they have followed because of the difficulty of getting the right QB no matter where you draft. As you said, IF they find a QB in the draft. That is a HUGE if.
I’ve been a Hawks fan since 1974 when it was announced Seattle was getting a team and I have never been more frustrated than I have been the last several years watching them piss away having a franchise QB, the first and only one this franchise has EVER had.
I will never understand the dislike for Russ, no matter how weird he is. I didn’t like the celebrity QB crap either, but his desire and will to win are unquestioned. He came to work every day and worked hard and won, sometimes in spite of the hand he was dealt at OC, HC, and O-line. Was he perfect? Nope. But neither is Brady, nor was Montana, etc.
TomLPDX
Too bad we can’t “like” a post. This was a good one Big Mike!
Trevor
Mike I don’t dislike Russ as a player at all in fact I loved his toughness and work ethic. The fact is PC/ JS did not draft well and the roster was a mess. Had they paid Russ $45 mil / yr it would have only gotten worse. That is my point the only way to get a better roster was to aquire early picks and cap space. That was never happening with the 2nd highest paid QB.
Russ was good enough to make this a 10-6 first round playoff loss team. He was not good enough to take them any further without a much better roster. We watched it for 5 yrs.
Perhaps not — but can equally argue they were in the NFCCG last season and are two years removed from the Super Bowl
KD
First time in human history that journalist reported the truth.
James Z
I can’t help but shake the feeling that no matter who the Seahawks drafted or draft in the future, that the regime of PC/JS and Jody will just not get it done. And by ‘done’ I mean putting a competitive team on the field with at least a hand full of players with ‘PhD’s’ in their positions, depth, attitude, and offensive and defensive schemes that can contend for a S.B.
That said: Rob’s analysis of the current roster and what they need to do going forward makes perfect sense. But can this regime pull it off?
I don’t care if we approve. I want wins. If we don’t approve but they come in and draft well, construct the roster well and game manage well, we’ll all come around.
509 Chris
I think watching a Pete Carrol team without Russ will have everyone’s respect for Pete completely destroyed by week 10. I’ve heard it here, and in the national media, that no Pete Carrol team will be picking first. What exactly has Pete done to earn that trust when we really look back at the last 6 or 7 years. Run, run, 3rd and long sack. Punt from the 45 yard line. 9 minutes left in the 4th, go save us number 3. This man is running a very outdated offense, and coaching for a team with talent that doesn’t actually exist on the field. This season is going to look like Hitlers last days in the bunker.
Jabroni-DC
Let’s say for fun that Seattle nabs the right QB with our native 1st round pick.
With the Denver pick, if Bijan Robinson does the ‘RB drop’ & ends up available at that selection, I’d be awfully tempted to nab him even with Walker III in the fold. Especially if the top DL are off the board. It would be top value for top talent and theoretically solidify the position for 5+ years. It would also allow Pete to run the Pete offense & greatly assist whichever QB comes to town.
Blitzy the Clown
Finally got a chance to listen to the breakdown.
I think your most salient point about the roster and the potential for success and some fans’ expectations thereof is the one about special teams.
And not just for the obvious reasons like how a missed PAT or FG and/or shambolic coverage on kickoff/punt returns can cost them a game, or games.
ST are the measure of a team’s roster depth, competitive attitude and young talent. With a few exceptions at key positions like KR, starters typically don’t play on ST. It’s mostly backups and rookies hungry not just to hold on to their roster spot, but to earn something more.
And let’s face it, we haven’t seen anything from Seattle’s ST in the preseason to suggest the roster depth is healthy or that there’s a surplus of young talent, or even a pervasive competitive attitude on this team.
Sure, they have one or two key players on each side of the ball (and that’s really it), plus some promise of potential in a handful more. After that, a lot of this year’s roster would’ve been cut from other teams this week.
We are one injury, or one player slump, away from utter ineffectiveness at multiple position groups.
Parallax
Really appreciate your analysis. You’ve voiced what I’ve been thinking and feeling. Fans are always optimistic in the preseason. This team is unproven, with enough holes to make Swiss cheese. And that’s fine. It is what it is. I’d rather face the reality of what is than to have kept Russ for one more year with a desperate hope that we somehow make a deep run. It was time to move on and now we’re rebuilding. There are some interesting, even exciting, parts. We’ll see how things come together. But with so little potential under center, this is a year in which it’s important to lower one’s expectations. To a level we’ve not tasted for a long time in Seattle. But it’s what’s right in front of us.
I may be less optimistic than you as I see this as a team that could go anywhere from 2-15 to 6-11. My over-under is 4. I’m thinking top three draft pick.
A lot of talking heads today are saying that the Broncos would not have been able to sign Russ without the big money from the Waltons since he supposedly received $50 million cash yesterday and is due another $20-something million in a few weeks/months, plus another $90 million needs to be put into escrow for him, making the point that many teams- the Hawks included- could not do this. One even went so far as to suggest that the Spanos family is going to have a hard time doing Herbert’s deal for this reason and that this was also why Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears.
My question is, is this really true? Are there really some franchises that are so cash poor that they may not be able to sign a star player? I had raised this concern before but was pretty fairly knocked down about it, but almost every show I listened to today brought this up.
Peter
Mike brown the Bengals owner makes his money from owning the bengals..
Not sure why people would knock this down. Most talking heads have referenced that he would have a hard time doing a fully guaranteed contract for burrows.
Jim irsay appears to be worth more but similar boat that his income is primarily from being the colts owner.
For some it might not be precisely that they don’t have the cash, it’s just that escrowing $150million is either too big a strain or it just does not fit their business ethos. Keep in mind, that is in place for all contracts, not just the big ones. So they likely already have somewhere in the neighborhood of $100m in escrow to cover the rest of the guaranteed money on the roster.
Frank
I don’t think it’s too convoluted to think it may be a 4-7 win team, and still be more hopeful for the future than as a ten win team with a QB in decline. Watching the Colts build a rooster in the Manning era is pretty fundamental to the belief that is nearly impossible to build a great team around a QB on the back side of their peak. From a purely math prospective the other 52 players on the team get worse than the pic you would have had given the 2-3 wins a good QB gets you over an average one, it’s a small difference 5-10 picks earlier in every round of every draft but it adds up. The talent after being as good as the Hawks have been, is just depleted and even the best GM you can hypothetically dream up would be in the same position. How many times watching the draft do you get the urge to throw your phone down in disgust that the guy you’d been dreaming fell to the Hawks have they gotten picked right before their turn? Probably sacrilegious to say, but kinda hope they skip the QB one more year and just build a stacked 52, then target coach and QB in 2024. I’d like another 10 year run, and seeing how much the Bengals benefited from Burrow being hurt and having one more true blue chip player in chase did for that team kinda makes me want two “rebuild years” of lacking a legit QB. I like the rookies, maybe a few future pro bowlers but I don’t see enough to be the core of a team for the next 10 years quite yet.
Mike
Calling Noah fant a bust is a little much I think we can agree on that. Almost 2000 receiving yards at te in 3 years is far from a bust.
Mike
Not even trying to be critical. I just think the bust term should be reserved for LJ Collierish first round picks
You don’t take a tight end in the top 20 for that. Let alone then give him away in a trade, just after spending a R2 on another TE
He had a ton to prove
Mike
I’m just saying bust is an unfair statement. I agree he has more to prove, as does his former college teammate who he’s been statistically better than, tj hockensen.
If you are happy to dump off a top-20 pick after three underwhelming years, that is a bust Mike.
As for Hockenson — sure he has to make sure he lives up to expectations. He’s also been playing on one of the worst teams in the NFL and he actually is a plus blocker.
Mike
Rob respectfully , if youre saying a bust is a tight end with 2000 receiving yards through the first two years your expectations for the 20th pick in a draft are far too high. There’s a lot of difference between an actual “bust” like collier, ifedi, etc and someone like Noah fant. I mean comeon how many picks in the first round has he outperformed?
If you draft someone in the top-20, your magical 1900 receiving yards over three seasons and average of three touchdowns a year isn’t good enough. Especially if you then draft another tight end in round two and cart off your top-20 pick to another team
Just because LJ Collier was even worse means diddly squat
Not sure why you’re failing to grasp this. He is a receiving tight end who was drafted to be a game changing receiver
He averages 633 yards and three touchdowns a year. For a top-20 pick that is not what you take him for. That’s indisputable
Noah
Has no one commented on your bis? Studly, bro, very studly
I like where the team is going. I like how they drafted. I like the defensive coaching hires, and I’m hoping Pete let’s his coaches do their thing.
What Rob points out, is that they have questions at every single position group, except punter, I guess. Yet, ST as a whole, more questions. When you have that many questions, they usually aren’t all answered favorably. And, could be answered mostly negatively.
I’m excited to see the young players develop this season. But, the roster is not good. I’m particularly concerned at linebacker. We are very thin there. I think Brooks ends up a quality starter, and Barton’s upside is adequate starter. And….who else do we have?
Blitzy the Clown
Michael Hall Jr. #51 for Ohio St is having himself a game vs Notre Dame. My oh my.
ND offense isn’t bad, but this Buckeye D has really stepped up.
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Watched/listened to this earlier this morning. Thanks as always for your efforts and multiple platform access Rob.
Not a bad deal for Broncos. Its a lot for a QB but that’s the going rate. Its not a market setting deal like Jamal Adams got even though Wilson had all the leverage. We used to talk about all the drama from Wilson’s camp before every extension; but this deal happened without any drama. May be our front office was at fault?
What are you talking about? There was no drama because they gave him $245 million / $165 million guaranteed.
They can have him at that price. This year is going to suck but this team was never winning an SB with Russ. We have a ton of draft capital next off season and should be able to get a good young QB to build around with so key pieces like the OT’s, RB and WRs already in place.
Fair few teams will tell you… if only it was as simple as that
That’s true but with there are also numerous teams who have done just that as well. I would prefer this route to another mediocre season and first round playoff loss and being tied to an aging QB who relied on his athleticism to be special.
The ship has sailed and this is the direction of the team now. Here’s to a great young qb and this path.
But let’s be right it’s not actually a ton of teams doing that. It’s the Chiefs, the ravens, the steelers, the giants, the patriots, and us. This century. And all the winning teams that pulled that feat off with a rookie contracted qb had top 5 defenses except the ravens.
This defense needs a massive upgrade to be in that mix in two years to be in that conversation.
I’m amazed any Seahawks fan can be sanguine about reloading at this position. The franchise spent its first 35 years being congenitally incapable of finding a premium quarterback, including whiffed 1.02 Rick Mirer and trading another first for Kelly Stouffer. The QB on the all-time Hawks team pre-Russ would be either Hass or Mudbone.
If the Jags don’t pick a dang punter instead of RW3, Seattle fans are the only ones who remember the LOB and they argue over microbrews about how high it might have soared had Clipboard Jesus and rookie contract Geno only elevated the offense a little bit.
This is so true. Seahawk fans act like it’s a forgone conclusion that THIS front office is going to draft the next Patrick Mahomes in the 23 draft. What in the last 5 drafts leads us to believe these guys can turn a mediocre roster without its future hof QB to a superbowl contender in 2 years?
This last draft gives me some hope that they might have come to their senses a bit and adopted more of a long-term plan as far as taking the talent available at premium positions and not forcing cute luxury picks.
But I also know: hope is a dangerous drug…
What happened in 2013 might have been a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing. Only one team wins it all each year and rarely is there a performance so dominating following a season so exciting. With a young team that seems to have the potential to do it again and again. God only knows if we’ll get back to that sort of territory. I don’t count on it. But it’s exciting to watch as we try.
This team might well have won another super bowl with Russ if Pete and John were capable of continuing to draft well.
They didn’t need to draft any better to win another SB. They just needed to hand the ball to Beastmode. If they did that they win at the least one more. That one play derailed everything they built to that point. It was a slow painful fall from there.
I wasn’t counting that fiasco but yeah, you’re 100% correct imo.
Trevor,
I offer you a warning — despite rather agreeing with you.
The hit/bust rate on first round QBs isn’t fantastic — something between 50 and 60%. We’re more in a situation where we can hope that they have a chance to draft an excellent QB prospect, hope that they give him excellent coaching, hope that he has an innate talent to read and track the game in addition to that arm talent, and hope that they have another good draft that puts pieces around him.
It seems to me that the best that we can be is quietly hopeful. And yeah.. to let the team tank for a year while playing and developing its best young talent.
I see the word “hope” in there a lot and I agree Tim, it’s a lot of hope to get another franchise QB. It is hardly an exact science e.g. Mayfield, Couch, Darnold, Rosen et.al. My guy yells me Trevor only cares that we’re rid of Wilson. There’s definitely a portion of the fanbase that feels that way, an inordinate portion imo considering his performance over the last decade. I find it very strange.
I agree. I think it’s easy to see the young guns and point to them and miss the nearly countless qb’s teams have started since 2012 that have gone on to do next to nothing.
Heck there’s really good players like Cousins. Making his money. Good to very good stats. Going to play a long time in the league. Where’s the win(s) of the games that matter? Prescott? Not my favorite but not terrible. Heck. Tony Romo before was no slouch. Rivers.
Just seems that fans think you just snap your fingers and there’s a bad ass qb. And forget the teams like the dolphins, the bills with an almost 30 year search, etc, and importantly the Seahawks. Hope I’m wrong but feels as likely that we could be walking into the woods on a search that goes on for twenty years.
A contract like that would not have stopped us from winning with Russ. The ineptitude of the coach and GM to build a roster would have been the reason. Contracts like that only become albatrosses if you stink at drafting, adding other talent, and maximizing that talent.
And didn’t the Rams just win the SB with over $50 million invested in the QB position?
Great observation, LineHawk. It’s definitely our front office. I don’t believe that Russell Wilson could be more difficult than Aaron Rogers or Kyler Murray. Those GM’s made it work. Pete and John just chose not to negotiate with Russ and fed the media a bunch of garbage about how difficult Russ and his agent were. Denver got it done pretty easily.
I think the Hawks did the right thing in moving on from Russ when we did. We weren’t going to make another deep playoff run with him at the helm. We were stuck in a rut with a QB who would decline over time. We needed a serious infusion of draft capital and cap space. Was best for all concerned for Wilson to go to a team with enough talent to make a deep run.
This team as constructed should be a top 3 pick. My nightmare scenario is the Hawks are on the clock and have their choice of all the QB’s and…trade down. They take Bryce Young and say that was their guy all along. With extra 2nd round pick they get – they take a safety.
Is anybody else surprised Mark Rodgers and Wilson didn’t try to get more from the Broncos? They had all the leverage… Mark Rodgers has seemed obsessed with getting a % of salary cap or a fully guaranteed deal for RW… Seems like a big change in mentality.
Simms and florio discussed this and florio thought the team with new ownership was unlikely or unwilling to do a big escrow of guarantees.
Simms brought up counter to what we hear or speculate that Wilson may have realized that a big contract now but lesser so in a few years as the cap goes up means Wilson might acknowledge that there is a need for more money to go around to retain players.
I think a 33 y/o (34 in Nov.) QB getting an extension until he’s 40 with a big guarantee up front is pretty solid, considering most QBs don’t age like Brady or even Rodgers into their late 30’s. Maybe Russ will join them as exceptions, maybe he wont. Still a pretty huge risk for the Broncos.
Plus, if he does play well and the QB market keeps going up, he’ll be back asking for a raise midway through the deal anyways and will still likely have all the leverage.
Well it seems the Broncos are off the hook after the first 3 years, but had to pay a hefty price for that in the first 3 years:
Bet he plays it out until the end
What you wrote is exactly what I was thinking. There’s a real chance the Broncos will regret this deal. A much smaller chance Russ regrets it.
1) Really enjoyed reading about Joey Blount, hope he finds success in Seattle
2) I’d like to see the Chargers surprise everyone and win it all this year
3) Being on the Broncos makes it much easier to dislike RW3
4) Blake Martinez !?!?
Feels like it’s the Bill’s time. Have the chargers even one a play off game yet?
What are your thoughts on Blake Martinez? We need linebacker depth and he’s been a quality player when healthy. Would he be better than Barton? Anyone else out there at LB?
Go Hawks!
I am under no illusions this year. We have a lot of potential/unknowns on the roster that could play out to be good, but equally, it may go south rapidly.
Personally I think it will be the former. By good I don’t mean a winning season, but by – as many of you have said – player and coaching development. We have so many new faces you can’t help be excited no matter it will probably be a losing season.
Just hoping to see the players develop. And who doesn’t give up if tge going gets tough.
How much is PC paying under the table for the league to randomly put out tweets like this…?
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1565473324406378504
The NFL has a Monday Night Football game to sell
I work with many GB, Dallas and LV fans.
They are all excited to watch Wilson torch his former team. If this were just the run of the mill big name QB going against a bad team, they wouldn’t bother to tune in. However, the Seahawks have created a lot of haters over the years and this game has turned into a dream scenario comeuppance for those haters.
Ironically, the few people I work with who root for SF and LA want the Hawks to destroy Wilson. They are realistic with their expectations regarding the Seahawks. They know the franchise is in rough shape. They know we won’t compete for a playoff spot. So they are focussing all their bad karma directly at the guy they have never liked.
It’s kind of hilarious walking around, listening to all the different takes.
lol as an accelerationist Hawks fan i feel this way also. Getting their doors blown off by Russ en route to 1-16 feels like the only form of accountability that Pete and John can ever receive.
Well played, Jim!
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1565396031780651012
(And I remember Rob being really impressed with his Combine drills. If pre-season form is to be believed, I will have been wrong to not like him!)
PS level, precisely…
Nothing at all against gordon but a nearly 32 year old player on a practice squad isn’t a comeback. That makes it seem like he was brutally injured and has been working day and night to use his arms or legs. Gordon had a monumental season almost ten years ago. Two good but not particularly amazing seasons after and has been on a laundry list of teams doing nearly nothing.
Would be cool as hell if at 32 he caught like 40 passes for 400 yards. I just don’t see it.
But he needs to be suspended again because….um….the tested positive for polyhydocholisyphilacid.
Josh Gordon is barometer for 2 things:
1.) How far the NFL is willing to push issues like this on a single player
2.) How long are fans willing to tolerate things like this
The answer is:
1,) A lot, because no one cares beyond this season
2.) A lot, because no one cares beyond this season
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/seattle-rookie-kenneth-walker-rashaad-penny-pete-carroll-injury-update-camp-rumors
An update on Walker. He’s getting “closer” according to Carroll but we all know how Pete tends to be overly optimistic with injuries so take it with a grain I suppose. I’m really dying to see the kid run the football so hoping it’s sooner rather than later.
Please let this be a real getting closer and not a Pete speak where getting closer means nothing.
Easily one of the players I want to see a ton of this year. And the only scenario where I see this team in games this year is if Walker plays and penny gets on the field consistently.
Kind of hope Walker and the new line is so good I don’t even need to think about penny.
I’m sort of deflated and melancholy about Walker too Big Mike. Walker, growth of the O-line and growth of the corners were my things to watch and get excited for this season, knowing they weren’t going to get wins this year. Hope I already don’t have to cross Walker off that list.
“Biggest draft in franchise history,” well said Rob!
The other day Hugh Millen was on a rant about the so called QB competition. Sorry i dont have the link but man was it good.
Both he and coach Holmgren agreed. They compared Lock to a poor man’s Brett Favre, gunslinger.
Favre through 24 pics his 1st full season under coach Holmgren. By playing and working with the gunslinger Favre, the pics went from 24 down to 13.
The Hawks have zero to lose and everything to gain. I dont think we have the right coaches for that job.
This season i am predicting 4 wins. Broncos e total was downgraded to 9 wins by a Denver site.
For fun. What would you rather in 1st round?
LEVIS
BPA
or
BPA
Van Dyke
To illustrate how competitive the afc west is going to be:
August 11th vegas odds. Over/under:
Chiefs: 10.5
Chargers: 10.5
Broncos: 9.5
Raiders: 8.5
Nfc west:
Rams: 10.5
Niners: 9.5
Cardinals: 8.5
And then there’s us: 5.5
My under bet would be the Niners, I think Lance is about to bust and Jimmy G is not ready.
I think a lot of people are getting caught out by the QB situation. at the 49ers. Bottom line is they still have one of the best rosters in the NFC if not NFL, and will have a good play off season regardless.
Without Jimmy that team got to draft Bosa. Pick 2 if I remember right. The next year with him back they went to the SB. Great roster or not, they don’t win without acceptable qb play.
Niners under feels right with the qb situation.
Edit. September 1st:
Broncos: 10.5
Gotta let a gun slinger sling. I think Lock will start at some point.
As for your question, in my mind Russ has nagging injuries and Denver underperforms landing around the 10th pick. We suck and land behind 2 QB needy teams and take Will Anderson. Cristobals offense dampens Van Dyke enough that he lasts to Denver’s pick. I will dream this unto existence for us all.
I agree. Dream scenario is Will Anderson with the first pick and Levis or Van Dyke with the Denver pick. Then try to add a penetrating DT in Rd #2 along with a long term answer at Center.
Pretty sad that I am already focused on next years draft and the Hawks have not even played a game yet.
If PC/JS goal was to build a roster to compete, have a 10-6 season and exit in the first round they have failed miserably. However if the goal was to draft young talent at premium positions (OT, Edge, CB) and give them a year to develop while putting themselves in position to have a top 5 pick + another 1st rounder then this was a masterful offseason. Geno / Lock atQB almost assures that.
I for one think this was certainly the plan. Seems to me that JS has more power now in the organization and that is why they are going this route. Even this draft seemed to lack Pete’s fingerprints being all over it and that is a positive. I can’t think of the last time a team drafted potentially 2 starting OT, 2 starting CB and an impact Edge Rusher in the same draft. They still have to go out and prove it on the field but early signs are very positive and that puts the team in a great spot going forward.
I have been a Hawks fan for 42 yrs and have never been more frustrated than the last couple of years with Russ at QB and a first round playoff loss all but assured. There is no guarantee they find a QB in the draft but if they do then they have a shot to compete for a SB in a year or two. With Russ they had no chance.
“With Russ they had no chance”. And I’ll say it again, had they put the proper team around Russ by drafting well, and not wasting picks on Adams, etc. they would have had a BETTER chance to get to a Super Bowl than the path they have followed because of the difficulty of getting the right QB no matter where you draft. As you said, IF they find a QB in the draft. That is a HUGE if.
I’ve been a Hawks fan since 1974 when it was announced Seattle was getting a team and I have never been more frustrated than I have been the last several years watching them piss away having a franchise QB, the first and only one this franchise has EVER had.
I will never understand the dislike for Russ, no matter how weird he is. I didn’t like the celebrity QB crap either, but his desire and will to win are unquestioned. He came to work every day and worked hard and won, sometimes in spite of the hand he was dealt at OC, HC, and O-line. Was he perfect? Nope. But neither is Brady, nor was Montana, etc.
Too bad we can’t “like” a post. This was a good one Big Mike!
Mike I don’t dislike Russ as a player at all in fact I loved his toughness and work ethic. The fact is PC/ JS did not draft well and the roster was a mess. Had they paid Russ $45 mil / yr it would have only gotten worse. That is my point the only way to get a better roster was to aquire early picks and cap space. That was never happening with the 2nd highest paid QB.
Russ was good enough to make this a 10-6 first round playoff loss team. He was not good enough to take them any further without a much better roster. We watched it for 5 yrs.
Fabulous post.
NFL Execs rank Seattle 15th out of 16 in the NFL
https://twitter.com/theathletic/status/1565708538420367360?s=21&t=jmDlstUUDsPUH4w_bfPH5g
I just don’t see the 49ers at #4. I think they might even not make the playoffs.
Perhaps not — but can equally argue they were in the NFCCG last season and are two years removed from the Super Bowl
First time in human history that journalist reported the truth.
I can’t help but shake the feeling that no matter who the Seahawks drafted or draft in the future, that the regime of PC/JS and Jody will just not get it done. And by ‘done’ I mean putting a competitive team on the field with at least a hand full of players with ‘PhD’s’ in their positions, depth, attitude, and offensive and defensive schemes that can contend for a S.B.
That said: Rob’s analysis of the current roster and what they need to do going forward makes perfect sense. But can this regime pull it off?
It’s a great question
Unfortunately, I think we’re going to find out.
James, i am with you on that!!!
Do we think JS will have a stellar 2023 draft?
Santa, for Christmas could we please have a new regime for the Seahawks? One that is approved by the SDB community?
I don’t care if we approve. I want wins. If we don’t approve but they come in and draft well, construct the roster well and game manage well, we’ll all come around.
I think watching a Pete Carrol team without Russ will have everyone’s respect for Pete completely destroyed by week 10. I’ve heard it here, and in the national media, that no Pete Carrol team will be picking first. What exactly has Pete done to earn that trust when we really look back at the last 6 or 7 years. Run, run, 3rd and long sack. Punt from the 45 yard line. 9 minutes left in the 4th, go save us number 3. This man is running a very outdated offense, and coaching for a team with talent that doesn’t actually exist on the field. This season is going to look like Hitlers last days in the bunker.
Let’s say for fun that Seattle nabs the right QB with our native 1st round pick.
With the Denver pick, if Bijan Robinson does the ‘RB drop’ & ends up available at that selection, I’d be awfully tempted to nab him even with Walker III in the fold. Especially if the top DL are off the board. It would be top value for top talent and theoretically solidify the position for 5+ years. It would also allow Pete to run the Pete offense & greatly assist whichever QB comes to town.
Finally got a chance to listen to the breakdown.
I think your most salient point about the roster and the potential for success and some fans’ expectations thereof is the one about special teams.
And not just for the obvious reasons like how a missed PAT or FG and/or shambolic coverage on kickoff/punt returns can cost them a game, or games.
ST are the measure of a team’s roster depth, competitive attitude and young talent. With a few exceptions at key positions like KR, starters typically don’t play on ST. It’s mostly backups and rookies hungry not just to hold on to their roster spot, but to earn something more.
And let’s face it, we haven’t seen anything from Seattle’s ST in the preseason to suggest the roster depth is healthy or that there’s a surplus of young talent, or even a pervasive competitive attitude on this team.
Sure, they have one or two key players on each side of the ball (and that’s really it), plus some promise of potential in a handful more. After that, a lot of this year’s roster would’ve been cut from other teams this week.
We are one injury, or one player slump, away from utter ineffectiveness at multiple position groups.
Really appreciate your analysis. You’ve voiced what I’ve been thinking and feeling. Fans are always optimistic in the preseason. This team is unproven, with enough holes to make Swiss cheese. And that’s fine. It is what it is. I’d rather face the reality of what is than to have kept Russ for one more year with a desperate hope that we somehow make a deep run. It was time to move on and now we’re rebuilding. There are some interesting, even exciting, parts. We’ll see how things come together. But with so little potential under center, this is a year in which it’s important to lower one’s expectations. To a level we’ve not tasted for a long time in Seattle. But it’s what’s right in front of us.
I may be less optimistic than you as I see this as a team that could go anywhere from 2-15 to 6-11. My over-under is 4. I’m thinking top three draft pick.
Rob check your email
Apologies — will do
A lot of talking heads today are saying that the Broncos would not have been able to sign Russ without the big money from the Waltons since he supposedly received $50 million cash yesterday and is due another $20-something million in a few weeks/months, plus another $90 million needs to be put into escrow for him, making the point that many teams- the Hawks included- could not do this. One even went so far as to suggest that the Spanos family is going to have a hard time doing Herbert’s deal for this reason and that this was also why Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears.
My question is, is this really true? Are there really some franchises that are so cash poor that they may not be able to sign a star player? I had raised this concern before but was pretty fairly knocked down about it, but almost every show I listened to today brought this up.
Mike brown the Bengals owner makes his money from owning the bengals..
Not sure why people would knock this down. Most talking heads have referenced that he would have a hard time doing a fully guaranteed contract for burrows.
Jim irsay appears to be worth more but similar boat that his income is primarily from being the colts owner.
It’s absolutely a real problem. Some of the legacy owners have derived their wealth from their equity stake in the franchise.
I will say that RW and Kyler not getting fully guaranteed extensions like Deshaun Watson got is probably a huge relief to the Spanos and Brown family.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/guest-post-working-out-the-future-at-qb-for-the-seahawks
For some it might not be precisely that they don’t have the cash, it’s just that escrowing $150million is either too big a strain or it just does not fit their business ethos. Keep in mind, that is in place for all contracts, not just the big ones. So they likely already have somewhere in the neighborhood of $100m in escrow to cover the rest of the guaranteed money on the roster.
I don’t think it’s too convoluted to think it may be a 4-7 win team, and still be more hopeful for the future than as a ten win team with a QB in decline. Watching the Colts build a rooster in the Manning era is pretty fundamental to the belief that is nearly impossible to build a great team around a QB on the back side of their peak. From a purely math prospective the other 52 players on the team get worse than the pic you would have had given the 2-3 wins a good QB gets you over an average one, it’s a small difference 5-10 picks earlier in every round of every draft but it adds up. The talent after being as good as the Hawks have been, is just depleted and even the best GM you can hypothetically dream up would be in the same position. How many times watching the draft do you get the urge to throw your phone down in disgust that the guy you’d been dreaming fell to the Hawks have they gotten picked right before their turn? Probably sacrilegious to say, but kinda hope they skip the QB one more year and just build a stacked 52, then target coach and QB in 2024. I’d like another 10 year run, and seeing how much the Bengals benefited from Burrow being hurt and having one more true blue chip player in chase did for that team kinda makes me want two “rebuild years” of lacking a legit QB. I like the rookies, maybe a few future pro bowlers but I don’t see enough to be the core of a team for the next 10 years quite yet.
Calling Noah fant a bust is a little much I think we can agree on that. Almost 2000 receiving yards at te in 3 years is far from a bust.
Not even trying to be critical. I just think the bust term should be reserved for LJ Collierish first round picks
100% agree with this.
You don’t take a tight end in the top 20 for that. Let alone then give him away in a trade, just after spending a R2 on another TE
He had a ton to prove
I’m just saying bust is an unfair statement. I agree he has more to prove, as does his former college teammate who he’s been statistically better than, tj hockensen.
If you are happy to dump off a top-20 pick after three underwhelming years, that is a bust Mike.
As for Hockenson — sure he has to make sure he lives up to expectations. He’s also been playing on one of the worst teams in the NFL and he actually is a plus blocker.
Rob respectfully , if youre saying a bust is a tight end with 2000 receiving yards through the first two years your expectations for the 20th pick in a draft are far too high. There’s a lot of difference between an actual “bust” like collier, ifedi, etc and someone like Noah fant. I mean comeon how many picks in the first round has he outperformed?
You are missing the point
If you draft someone in the top-20, your magical 1900 receiving yards over three seasons and average of three touchdowns a year isn’t good enough. Especially if you then draft another tight end in round two and cart off your top-20 pick to another team
Just because LJ Collier was even worse means diddly squat
Not sure why you’re failing to grasp this. He is a receiving tight end who was drafted to be a game changing receiver
He averages 633 yards and three touchdowns a year. For a top-20 pick that is not what you take him for. That’s indisputable
Has no one commented on your bis? Studly, bro, very studly
Thank you Noah
I like where the team is going. I like how they drafted. I like the defensive coaching hires, and I’m hoping Pete let’s his coaches do their thing.
What Rob points out, is that they have questions at every single position group, except punter, I guess. Yet, ST as a whole, more questions. When you have that many questions, they usually aren’t all answered favorably. And, could be answered mostly negatively.
I’m excited to see the young players develop this season. But, the roster is not good. I’m particularly concerned at linebacker. We are very thin there. I think Brooks ends up a quality starter, and Barton’s upside is adequate starter. And….who else do we have?
Michael Hall Jr. #51 for Ohio St is having himself a game vs Notre Dame. My oh my.
ND offense isn’t bad, but this Buckeye D has really stepped up.