Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 11 of 13)

Late round Quarterbacks of interest, Part I

Case Keenum

Written by Kip Earlywine

Now that Matt Barkley has extended his holiday wishes to all the NFL teams and fan bases hoping to acquire his services next year, its time that we as as Seahawks fans accept the fact that our front office probably isn’t getting you that BB gun your metaphorical inner Ralphie badly wants next draftsmas.  Instead, its time to start preparing yourself for socks, veal, or an embarrassing bunny suit.  I wouldn’t completely rule out an 11th hour blockbuster shocker for RG3 should he declare: even Ralphie got his BB gun, but only when he least expected it.  Failing a Hollywood ending, here are some names to keep in mind over the next 5 months as we begin the painfully long wait to what could well become the most anticipated Seahawks offseason in half a decade.

Please keep in mind that I have NOT scouted these players, and this isn’t intended to fool anyone into thinking Seattle could be getting the next Hasselbeck, Warner, or Brady out of this group.

Pete Carroll recently hinted in a radio interview that this looks like a good year to draft a quarterback later.  To be exact, he said thisThere’s some exciting kids coming out of the draft, but there’s exciting ones that the people don’t know about too and they’ll be enough.”   To me, the key phrase there comes at the very end- “they’ll be enough.”  Seattle isn’t like the old couple at the beach searching for lost Spanish gold doubloons with their Minelab metal detectors.  They aren’t looking to find an MVP candidate in the sixth round.  Rather, they are looking to repeat the success Jim Harbaugh had with mega-bust Alex Smith.  Smith had more interceptions than touchdowns before this year, but as a game manager, he’s currently sporting a shiny 16/5 ratio in 2011.  Being polished or overly skilled is not an absolute requirement.  The front office’s pursuit of T-Jack and Whitehurst is proof enough.

So just who might those quarterbacks be?  Rather than try to pinpoint a few guys, here is a longer list of candidates (presented in increments) and why they may be of some interest for our front office, either late in the draft or even in undrafted free agency.

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Jordan Jefferson, LSU. Size: 6’5″, 223.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  21.

It seems weird that the quarterback of the undisputed #1 team in football would top this list, especially since Jefferson has excellent size, athleticism, and doesn’t turn 22 until just before next season starts.

Jefferson has the tools of a 1st round pick, and he’s having a good 2011 season (albeit with only 83 total attempts) but teams will not be quick to forget that Jefferson posted a 7/10 TD/INT ratio last year with a 56.5% completion rate and a low 6.75 yards per attempt.  This year he’s completed 60% of his passes with 8.24 yards per attempt and a TD/INT ratio of 6/1.

In between those events, Jefferson (“allegedly”) kicked a marine in the face during a barfight.  He was later charged for second degree (felony) battery.  The charges were later reduced to misdemeanor level, but this kind of thing can do tremendous damage to a quarterback’s draft stock.

Jefferson controls an offense that is similar to ours in spirit.  He’s a very athletic version of a game manager who orchestrates an offense completely built around running the football.  Character concerns could scratch him off the list, but in almost every way Jefferson feels like a Pete Carroll / John Schneider special.  This is NOT to say that I think Jefferson is a good quarterback.  He ran the ball 345 times compared to just 661 passes in college.  But Jefferson is an excellent specimen of horseflesh so to speak, he won’t cost very much to acquire, and he seems at his best in a limited game-manager type role.  I think the fact that he cut down on his interceptions so dramatically this season will interest our front office too.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid-to-Late rounds, possible UDFA.

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Case Keenum, Houston.  Size: 6’1″, 210.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  23.

Case Keenum redshirted in 2006, behind decorated Houston starter Kevin Kolb.  He began starting the next year in 2007 (he missed most of 2010 with a torn ACL).  Its startling to think that Keenum has been starting games going back even further than Mark Sanchez has.  Keenum would eventually go on to be the most prolific passer statistically in NCAA history.  It should be noted that his closest competitors are Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, and Ty Detmer, who didn’t exactly end up as NFL royalty.

Its easy to look at Case Keenum’s gaudy stats in a goofy offense in Conference USA and see Graham Harrell.  I look at Keenum and see Jeff Garcia.  Garcia was 6’1″, 205, and undrafted.  Both players will catch you off guard with their quickness and instincts.  Neither Keenum nor Garcia would wow you in a 40 meter dash, but on the field, they can book it and buy time as good as anyone.  Some might not consider a comparison to Garcia as much of a compliment, but when Garcia was used in a point guard offense role (SF, PHI, TB) he was actually a very effective QB who regularly posted passer ratings in the 80s and 90s.

Keenum probably won’t be drafted anywhere earlier than the mid rounds due to a very low- almost sidearm- release point.  That coupled with a below average height for the NFL could cause problems.  His listed weight of 210 is also lower than what most NFL GMs would prefer (keep in mind, Josh Portis is also 210, and Green Bay’s system Schneider is adopting hasn’t shied away from smallish quarterbacks with late picks).  Keenum has obviously passed for a lot of yards though, and a big reason for that success is his ability to maneuver and find passing lanes to throw through which helps mitigate his low release.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid round pick.

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Austin Davis, So. Miss.  Size: 6’2″, 221.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  22.

Rob has written extensively on Austin Davis.  But to quickly summarize, he has few glaring flaws, plays to avoid mistakes, has broken school records held by Brett Favre, and has led his So. Miss. team to its first national ranking since 2004, topped off with a beatdown of #6 Houston in the final game of the season.  Watching Davis play, he just looks like an NFL quarterback.  He’s about as polished as a late round QB can be.

Davis reminds me a lot of Blaine Gabbert last year, in that his heady, efficient collegiate play can easily distract you from noticing that he’s a pretty good athlete too.  Gabbert had better size and will probably have posted a better forty time, but whereas Gabbert struggled with deep passes, the deep passing game seems to be an asset for Davis.

Despite Davis’ impressive 2011 season and overall career at So. Miss, it seems like Seahawks Draft Blog is the only place so far to single him out for praise.  Walterfootball.com lists him as a rounds 4-6 guy, and this kind of projection is typical for Davis right now.  I think that as teams and draftniks take a closer look this offseason, Davis stands a real chance of rising up boards.  Its really hard to pinpoint Davis’ stock until that happens though.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid-to-late rounds.

To be continued…

Having faith

Written by Kip Earlywine

Let’s be honest Seahawks fans.  How many of you lose sleep at night worrying about Seattle’s future at quarterback?  From the comments I’ve read across several prominent blogs and message boards, it seems like a lot.

I’m no different.

Tarvaris Jackson’s better than expected 2011 performance has all but guaranteed that he will remain a Seahawk in 2012.  Additionally, it seems highly likely that he will start at least the beginning of next season.  Jackson still has plenty of room for improvement, and while you could argue that he’s held the Seahawks back on numerous occasions, I think it would be wrong to say he’s hurt this team.  This coaching staff has successfully turned Jackson from an erratic playmaker type to a more conservative, safer game-manager type, and its made Jackson a better quarterback, despite playing hurt most of the season.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider have made a big commitment to Jackson.  In words.  In patience.  Even in cash.  They put their foots in their mouths regarding Minnesota and how they “jerked him around.”  If Seattle had benched Jackson at any point, those words would come back to bite them in the ass and paint them as incompetent hypocrites.  That’s a lot of incentive to stay the course at quarterback.  Its an incentive that, I believe, will still factor in 2012 as well.  Pete Carroll has gone above and beyond to reinforce Jackson’s job security and help him believe that he’s “the guy.”  Its smart coaching.  You don’t want your quarterback constantly worrying about his job status.  Just look at Vince Young.  That said, drafting a quarterback in the first round sends a message about the previous starter, and no matter how its spun, its a message that will work against the good trust that Pete has tried to build with Jackson.

This is worrisome to Seahawks fans.  I respect what Tarvaris has done.  I appreciate that he has room for improvement and he’s still a guy with some potential.  As a stopgap, he’s been all I could have asked for.  I have absolutely no problem with him being our starter in 2012, and possibly beyond depending on development time for his successor.  But if Tarvaris Jackson is an obstacle to Seattle drafting a franchise quarterback, I think its safe to say that most Seahawks fans would want him off the team this very instant.  However, I am beginning to fear that this is a very real possibility.

Life is full of adversity and downright scary moments.  As a believer, I find that I can seek comfort in asking God for help, even if its just to help me calm down.  I know many of you probably can’t relate to that, and far be it from me to push my beliefs on anyone else.   Rather, I simply bring this up to illustrate a point- too often, critical things in our lives are completely out of our control.  Prominent Mariners blogger Dave Cameron was recently diagnosed with a form of cancer, and though he’s about as anti-intangible as they come, even he admitted to putting faith in betting against the odds.  Sometimes, if only for the sake of our own sanity, its good to have a little faith.  In this case, it would mean having faith in Pete Carroll and John Schneider and their plan for the quarterback position.

I have a lot of faith in those guys.  I could go on and on about it.  Red Bryant anyone?  How about Stokely, Brock, Hargrove, Browner, BMW, Lynch, Gallery, Rice, Miller and even Tom Cable.  And that’s just on the transaction/player revamp side of the equation.

I have a lot of self-confidence in this site’s ability to project players.  Rob in particular has a rare gift for noticing first round talents before almost anyone else does.  He proclaimed Blaine Gabbert as a top 10 pick in December of last year, back when very few people even knew who Gabbert was.  He called Jimmy Smith, Derrick Morgan, James Carpenter and many, many others before mainstream draft analysts did.  Kyle handily predicted Stafford as the superior quarterback to Sanchez.  My track record here doesn’t go back very far and isn’t as great as theirs, but I was a fan of Russell Okung and many years before that I was a huge fan of Brandon Mebane before Seattle drafted him.

But even having said all that, I don’t think our ability to evaluate talent comes even close to what John Schneider and his scouting group has done.  We tend to focus on big name prospects here- guys that are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds.  We have lives to live outside of Seahawks football, and our resources are very limited.  John Schneider, Scot McCloughan, Scott Fitterer,  and his six regional scouts are all full time, highly paid professionals obsessed with finding as much talent as possible.  Not only are they more qualified than anyone who writes here, but they have resources we can only dream of.  I can only imagine how proud I’d be if I had talked up Richard Sherman before last year’s draft.  And that’s just one player.  Never mind Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright, or Doug Baldwin.

And therein lies the rub.  There are going to be roughly a thousand draft eligible players in any given year, and here at this site, we’d be lucky to cover a hundred of them.  Guys like Doug Baldwin easily slipped past our radar completely, but he didn’t slip past John Schneider’s.  Really, the closest we’ve come to touting a player on the fringe is Austin Davis.  Our front office makes several Austin Davis type sleeper moves every year, with a surprising number of those moves paying off.

I’m not trying to convince anyone that passing on Griffin or Barkley is a good idea.  I think that the potential rewards are such that Seattle should not take them lightly.  But at the same time, I think that this front office has more than earned our patience and good faith should they go a different direction next April.

This front office has been very protective of Josh Portis, even to the point of throwing away a win by starting Whitehurst against the lowly Browns.  Portis is a project, but flashed serious potential in the preseason.  I’m admittedly shooting in the dark here, but is it possible the front office thinks they have something in Josh Portis?  Or what if they have a non-first round quarterback who really intrigues them?  Perhaps Austin Davis.  Or perhaps someone we’ve never even thought about.

This is not meant to be taken as an argument against drafting a first round quarterback.  Its only to say that sometimes, smart people will do befuddling things only to prove later that those moves were master strokes.  The Tapp and Wilson trades caused a righteous outcry among Seahawks fans.  And for good reason, Tapp and Wilson were two of Seattle’s better defenders the year before.  Yet, the Tapp trade netted us Chris Clemons, and the Wilson trade landed us Richard Sherman.  Rather unbelievably, the Seahawks unloaded those players for a fraction of their worth and came out ahead.  Way ahead.

If Seattle passes on Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III next April, there will be no shortage of consternation.  But should that unfortunate reality come to pass, I would advise us all:  “have a little faith.”  These guys have earned it.  It wouldn’t be the first time they did something that looked stupid on the surface but proved brilliant in retrospect.

The lesson of a gradual draft class and how contending teams get better

Posted by Kip Earlywine

(Note:  Be sure to scroll down and check out Rob’s recent entry on Matt Barkley.  The Oregon game may well prove to be a turning point for Barkley’s draft status.)

The apparent beginnings of a second half surge by the Seattle Seahawks has ignited the “lose to win”  debate among fans (which in my imagination, is sung to the tune of Paul Stanley’s “Live to win“).  Its a topic that in the past was shied away from and avoided, but in 2011 its taken off to a level I’ve never seen before.  Even radio personalities like Mike Salk have openly advocated for losing games for draft position.  For some reason, perhaps fueled by the long overdue acceptance of moving beyond Matt Hasselbeck, the nearly undeniable requirement for a franchise quarterback to make the playoffs and the well documented success-rate of first round quarterbacks, the subject has ceased to be completely taboo.  I’m guessing a lot of fans were looking at Andrew Luck after getting crushed by Pittsburgh for an 0-2 start and thought, “if we’re going to be bad, lets be bad enough.”

Despite that, the subject does bring out a lot of heated emotions on both sides.  Even on this very blog we’ve seen some heated discussion in the comments regarding this.  So I figured it was high time I weighed in, to explain that there’s really no reason to freak out either way.  At least not this year.

Depending on the season and the context involved, I’ve actually been on both sides of this issue in the past.  I thought that Seattle gained more by winning in 2002 when a hot finish not only helped Matt Hasselbeck establish himself as a franchise quarterback, but also helped Mike Holmgren keep his job.  Without that late 2002 surge, I very much doubt the Seahawks would have been celebrating their first Superbowl berth in 2005.  Conversely, when it was obvious that the team was in need of a complete roster overhaul and change at the top in 2009, I felt that losing to secure that change, as well as needed draft position (to assist in finding a quarterback) was clearly more important.  Seattle did not draft a quarterback the next draft (2010), and I think its safe to say that though frustrating at the time, it was absolutely the right move in retrospect.  Instead, Seattle stayed calm and simply selected the best players they could, and though they didn’t get a franchise quarterback (who didn’t exist in that draft anyway), they did acquire two players who are already pieces of Seattle’s next great team.

So which is it in 2011?  This season doesn’t really fit well with either of those examples:  Seattle does not have a true emerging franchise quarterback as they did in 2002, nor are they a team trending downward and in need of new leadership.  But if we made a spectrum with 2002 being on one side and 2009 being on the other, I think I’d lean towards putting this season on the 2002 (“winning is good”) half.  And not for the reasons many “win now” supporters have suggested.

Rather, while looking ahead to the next NFL draft, one can’t help but notice that this isn’t going to be a top heavy draft.  I don’t know if there is a single player on defense that truly deserves to be a top 10 pick.  The offensive portion of the draft is actually pretty dang good, but its also a muddled group.  Andrew Luck is the consensus top quarterback, and Trent Richardson (if he declares) will be the top rated running back, but after that expect a lot of different front offices ranking the remaining players in a variety of orders.  Its very possible that with time, the quarterback class could solidify into a consensus order, but with Jones being rated highly, Barkley lower than he deserves, and Griffin’s stock being difficult to predict, the early indications hint at what could become an unpredictable remaining quarterback class not unlike 2011’s.  Additionally, you are looking at probably four or five offensive lineman going in round one (Kalil, Martin, Konz, and DeCastro are locks.)  Similarly, there are about four to six wide receivers who could merit first round consideration.  At running back, Lamar Miller will likely be a first rounder, and Chris Polk could end up sneaking into the first round as well.  I wouldn’t rule out LaMichael James either.

In other words, there are going to be three or four superstars in this draft, and its likely they will all quickly be gone in the first five or so picks.  But after that, the draft widens out considerably.  To help illustrate this idea, I’m going to use this basic diagram:

The dark blue area represents players who are uncommon talents.  In 2012, this group is expected to include Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, and Matt Barkley (whether his reputation is there or not).  Richardson has indicated recently that he leans toward returning to school next year, and though I do not think Barkley will return to USC, some believe that Barkley may return as well.  Split the difference, and you are probably looking at only 2 to 4 elite players in this next draft.  That’s not an especially low number, but its dwarfed by the number of Upper Tier players that follows it, a list that probably goes fifteen strong on offense alone, and since teams don’t pick purely by BPA, you can expect some of those 15 players to last to the end of the first round.  And while this draft completely lacks top 10 worthy prospects on defense, there are quite a few defensive players who could make a lot of sense from the mid-first round on, players like Zach Brown, Alameda Ta’amu, Vinny Curry or Janoris Jenkins.  It paints the picture of a draft that falls off quickly at the very beginning, but turns into a gradual plateau for a long time after.

Generally speaking, as you move down the pyramid, each sub-group increases in size and opinion increasingly lacks consensus.  By the time you reach the 4th tier, its really anyone’s guess who goes where, and its no surprise then that the very best front offices separate themselves the most in this area.  And in 2012, you’re looking at a pyramid that has very little dark blue, but a lot of regular blue and light blue.  That’s true with every draft, but its more true with 2012’s group than most.

Where have we seen this before?  Though not perfectly analogous, we’ve seen similarly “dispersed” drafts recently in 2005 and 2009.

Top 10 picks, 2005: Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pac-Man Jones, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rodgers, Mike Willams (the very same).

In a word, brutal.  But consider some notables from the remainder of that same first round:

Notable picks 11-32, 2005: DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown, Marcus Spears, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Roddy White, Heath Miller, Logan Mankins.

Its worth noting that while Ware, Merriman and Brown went 11th, 12th and 13th respectively, the rest of those players were drafted 20th or later.  Of course, Seattle drafted Chris Spencer 26th overall in that same draft.  Though not a home run pick, it ended up being the best first round pick Tim Ruskell would ever make.   Now lets take a look at another dispersed year: 2009.

Top 10 picks, 2009: Matt Stafford, Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Eugene Monroe, B.J. Raji, Michael Crabtree.

Yet again, another incredibly weak top field.  Matt Stafford’s career is turning out the way you would hope any #1 overall quarterback would, but after that you have four players in a row who were late draft risers, and all four are picks their teams have regretted or will probably regret in the future.  Sanchez isn’t quite a disappointment just yet, as he’s improved every season and is currently sporting an 80 passer rating, but he hasn’t progressed nearly as fast as Stafford despite having almost double the playing time to this point.  Andre Smith, DHB, and Eugene Monroe had terrible beginnings to their careers, and while I wouldn’t rule out a turnaround, I think its safe to say they haven’t been earning their $40 million contracts.   B.J. Raji has been one of the most valuable DTs in the league, chosen by a team that knows a thing or two about evaluating talent.  Michael Crabtree has actually been a pretty solid receiver, just not the superstar many thought he’d be.  Overall though, you’re looking at two great players and two decent players in a top 10 crop.  Consider now how the rest of round one shaped up that year:

Notable picks 11-32, 2009: Brian Orakpo, Malcolm Jenkins, Brian Cushing, Josh Freeman, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, Alex Mack, Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, Clay Matthews,  Eric Wood, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

That list already includes 5 pro-bowlers and a franchise quarterback, among other things.  And while I think BJ Raji and Matt Stafford are currently on their way to the pro-bowl themselves, the top 10 group has yet to earn a single pro-bowl bid as of this writing.

I guess a logical question when seeing such unusual results is “how could NFL franchises picking in the top 10 let this happen?”  Well, its partly because the higher a team picks, the smaller their section of the pyramid is, and the more “locked in” they get.  Remember that these were not top-heavy years, and determining the top crust of talent became more of a case of guesswork than usual.  It probably also factors that many of the successful players from these lists landed on good teams who were able to put those players in a good place to succeed.  It didn’t hurt that Michael Oher went to a team that had previously invested heavily in the offensive line, and had both a franchise quarterback and franchise running back to make him look better.  It didn’t hurt BJ Raji or Clay Matthews that they went to a great team coming off a strange down year.

And as the picture at the top implies, its hard to not notice just how incredibly well Green Bay did in these two “weak” drafts, securing one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, an elite nose tackle and an elite pass rusher.  And they did so while John Schneider was a member of their front office, using a system he brought over with him when hired as the Seahawks general manager.  While Rodgers was gained through patience and luck, and Raji was gained by staying true to their board, Clay Matthews actually required a highly uncharacteristic trade up to acquire.

Could a 1st round trade up be in the books for John Schneider in 2012?  If the season were to end today, the Colts would likely take/trade Luck at #1.  But after that, you have three teams in a row who have invested in quarterbacks recently (Panthers, Vikings, Rams).  If Richardson opts not to declare, that leaves only Matt Barkley and Matt Kalil as the remaining elite prospects.  In a draft where the talent pool at say the 3rd overall pick won’t be radically different from the talent pool in the mid-first, that creates a massive incentive to trade down, even with the new rookie wage scale.  And of course, after Barkley and Griffin are both off the table, you are looking at a flat-out buyers market year, where trading down will be hard to do and trading up will probably cost less than usual.  We know that John Schneider loves to move down, but its just not going to be easy to do that this time.  In 2005 and 2009, there was only one top 10 trade in those two drafts combined.  That one top ten trade was of course for Mark Sanchez, which may not have materialized if not for then Browns coach Eric Mangini’s connections to the Jets.  A friendly rookie pay scale will help entice buyers to a degree, but why would any team spend significant capital to draft from essentially the same talent pool?  Unless its for a quarterback.

In that sense, there could be an ironic advantage to picking later and targeting a quarterback.  The Atlanta Falcons paid a king’s ransom for Julio Jones, but there is something to like about the fact that they controlled their own destiny.  They got their man.  Had they picked 10th, they might have been tempted to wait it out- and miss out- as a result.  As things are shaping up now, you will likely have teams in the top 5 picks holding Barkley and Griffin out for trade.  I’d rather pay two firsts and get Barkley for sure than take a 50/50 shot at getting Barkley for half that price.  If Seattle ends up picking 8th, that will be a very real temptation.

Great front offices work tirelessly so that they will always make the best decisions possible with the available players at each draft pick.  But that hard work and success does not lure them into an arrogant mentality where they believe hard work alone will always bring a needed piece of the puzzle to their doorstep.  When there is a piece out there that is critical to the equation, they’ve shown a willingness to make a bold move for that player, even in the case of Green Bay: a team that is famous for singing the praises of trading down, not up.

Finally, its worth nothing that as unlikely as it would have seemed at the time, the 2005 and 2009 drafts produced franchise quarterbacks after the top of the first round.  Aaron Rodgers somehow fell all the way to the 24th pick.  Jason Campbell isn’t a franchise quarterback, but he’s no slouch either.  He went with the very next pick.  Josh Freeman was the 17th overall pick in 2009.  What if Matt Barkley suffers from Jimmy Clausen lookalike-itis and has an inexplicable Aaron Rodgers fall?  What if Robert Griffin makes a dramatic rise into the first round, but not the high first round, as Josh Freeman did?  While I strongly advocate Seattle taking their fate into their own hands this next draft by moving up, if they foolishly choose not to, there is legitimate hope that they could luck out anyway.  And even in the worst case scenario- no worthy quarterback reaches Seattle’s first pick- we can take comfort in the knowledge that Seattle will at least be getting a pretty good player thanks to a deep second tier of talent, even if that player isn’t playing the position we want the most.

This isn’t to say that its always better to pick later.  That’s hardly the case.  In many drafts, such as the 2010 version, picking twice in the first fourteen picks was a huge blessing.  However, the way that the 2012 draft appears to be shaping up, this looks like a year where there are significant silver linings to picking a little bit later, enough to legitimately question if it makes it worth the losing and the resulting hot seat it would put our coach and front office on.


Why I’m looking ahead to the 2012 running back class

By Kip Earlywine

While Seattle’s record has so far been a disappointing 2-5, in many ways, the roster is shaping up exactly as John Schneider and Pete Carroll hoped it would.

The defense has been death to the run and surprisingly solid against the pass, thanks to the emergence of young potential stars in the secondary such as Kam Chancellor, Walter Thurmond, and Richard Sherman (Brandon Browner has been a useful contributor as well).

On offense, the team has weapons and a quarterback who seems competent enough to get the ball to them, but is being undermined by other aspects.  In my view, there are some areas of this team which strike me as being even bigger problems than quarterback.  Don’t get me wrong.  I don’t think Seattle should just forget about drafting a quarterback.  Even if Tarvaris Jackson continues to improve and becomes a legitimately good stop gap option, he’s still only a stopgap.  Seattle needs to invest in a quarterback soon, especially if they choose the developmental quarterback route in a player like Robert Griffin III.

That said, when I look at how this team ranks statistically in every offensive/defensive category, Seattle is doing surprisingly well, but there are two areas that really leap off the page for concern:  Seattle’s offensive line ranks 32nd in the NFL in sacks allowed, and Seattle’s running game ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry.

The Seahawks have already invested very heavily in the offensive line.  I do not think further high investment in the line is indefensible, the same way that picking first round receivers for years didn’t deter the Lions from drafting Calvin Johnson, but suffice to say, drafting another first round lineman would not be my first preference.

However, there is another way to improve our offensive line performance, and that is by finding a special talent at running back who fits a zone blocking scheme.  A truly great running back can make his offensive line’s run blocking look better than it really is, and the threat of a viable running game and play action can also take some of the teeth out of a pass rush.  And the last two seasons, that just hasn’t been happening.  Marshawn Lynch hasn’t had a productive season since 2008.  Leon Washington is a 3rd down back.  Justin Forsett is a 3rd down back who at least appears to have lost a little something this year.  Seattle needs to get more production out of their offensive line, but the running back group isn’t helping much and, in my opinion, does not have much of a future here.  When your most promising back isn’t a workhorse and turns 30 next season, its time to start thinking about finding some new blood.

Fortunately, the 2012 draft is shaping up to be a very solid draft class for running backs.  Its not going to be like 2008 when a very hyped class produced five running backs that went in the first round.  But this is a running back class that has a few potentially under-rated backs who will prove to be value picks in the first three rounds.  Here are a few backs that figure to be on the NFL’s radar next April:

Trent Richardson

Highlights

Alabama’s star running back is the consensus #1 running back and has a real chance to be a top 10, possibly even top 5 pick in the 2012 draft.  Richardson has a rare blend of size, speed, shiftiness, power, and toughness.  He reminds me a lot of a slightly smaller Corey Dillon, or a bigger Frank Gore.  How those two running backs were not first round picks I’ll never know, and they went on to make the rest of the league look foolish for it.  It doesn’t appear that NFL teams will be caught overlooking Richardson though.

Lamar Miller

Highlights (nsfw)

I like Miller quite a bit.  He might be the shiftiest back in this class.  Miami has been no stranger to producing NFL backs:  Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, and Willis McGahee have come out of Miami in just the last decade.  The video above makes an interesting comparison between Miller and Clinton Portis.  Portis was shiftier and lost less speed making cuts, but its fair to say that the similarities are somewhat striking.  I think I actually like Polk more than Miller for the Seahawks offense, but Miller is generally rated a little higher by most draft sites.  I can see why.

Chris Polk

Highlights

Polk might be the most unique member of this running back class because he actually converted from wide receiver in high school.  It shows too.  He runs the best routes for a running back that I’ve seen since Reggie Bush.  Polk is also a strong blocker, and a consistent rusher, despite playing behind perhaps the worst offensive line of any player on this list.  His vision, toughness, durability, start-stop, and decision-making are excellent, and I like how he lowers the shoulder into defenders and is adept at falling forward for extra yards.  He might be the very best back in this draft at “getting skinny” at the first level, which is a huge factor for the Seahawks putrid run blocking.  He’s also nearly identical in size to Richardson, which helps.  One of the more natural born zone blocking scheme running backs I’ve seen in a while.  He may not make huge plays every time he touches the ball, but he will win you over with quality performances week in and week out.

LaMichael James

Highlights

Maybe I’m the first person (who’s not a Duck fan) to use this word regarding James, but has he somehow become under-rated at some point in the last year?  People talk about him like he’s a 3rd round pick, yet all the guy does is explode for long touchdowns.  From what I’ve seen of him, he seems like a solid receiver and could be a real weapon as a 3rd down back.  But something that doesn’t get talked about, and its something that I like about James a lot, is his ability to get skinny and slip through where no running lane exists at all.  Its no accident that many of James’ biggest runs were right up the middle, which is very unusual for a scat-back type.  James may not survive long with a 300 carry workload in the NFL, but there is no reason to pull him off the field on first and second downs.

Montee Ball

Highlights

I don’t know if Ball is a great fit for Seattle, as he benefited immensely from some great blocking at Wisconsin and he isn’t especially quick or shifty.  But he does have excellent vision and is a very smooth, powerful runner, somewhat akin to LaGarrette Blount in Tampa. I like how, like Chris Polk, Ball has a good habit of keeping his legs going which helps him pick up yards after contact.  I do not know if Ball would be worthy investment early for the Seahawks, but I do think he has a very bright future ahead of him somewhere else where the blocking is better than what Seattle offers.  Knowing how some of my predictions turn up though, I might have just jinxed Ball into becoming a future Seahawk.

Texas  A&M’s deadly duo:  Cyrus Gray/Christine Michael

Highlights

Cyrus Gray is kind of this year’s version of CJ Spiller.  Which isn’t to say that Gray is as gifted as Spiller, only to say that they both fall into a the same category:  not a workhorse back, but plays with good moves and big play speed.  The difference between the two is that Spiller put up some gaudy numbers which helped get him over-drafted, and Gray has actually been somewhat quiet this year as he’s shared carries with another quality back in Christine Michael.  Seattle needs an every-down back and Gray doesn’t really fit that bill, just like Spiller hasn’t in Buffalo, but Seattle might want to start looking for a successor to Leon Washington.

Michael is a very similar back, and I’d rate the two almost identically.  If Seattle is interested in acquiring a back like Gray, but only Michael is left, then drafting Michael would make sense too.  I prefer Gray between the two of them, as he appears just a touch more explosive on video.

Knile Davis

Highlights

Davis was injured at the very beginning of the 2011 season and is considered highly unlikely to declare for the 2012 draft.  On the off chance that Davis does declare though, I’d probably put him very high on this list, perhaps higher than Chris Polk and LaMichael James.  Every game I scouted for Ryan Mallett, Davis had a phenominal game.  In fact, over the 4 game sample I watched, I think Davis actually contributed even more to the offense than Mallett did, which says an awful lot.  His size, acceleration, and intangibles (knack for the first down marker) was reminiscent of Terrell Davis.

Keith Price and the ideal point guard quarterback

by Kip Earlywine

I’ll be honest.  I don’t know when exactly it was, but at some point last offseason I heard the phrase “point guard quarterback” for the very first time.  Its human nature to react negatively to things we don’t understand, and so like many others, my disposition towards the idea began at a low point.  Using a basketball position to describe a quarterback?  What kind of nonsense is that?

Many other Seahawks fans were confused by the term, and yet they talked about it.  Quite a lot actually, without ever bothering to find out exactly what the definition of a point guard quarterback really is.  This led to an epidemic of misunderstanding.  To many Seahawks fans, even right now, a point guard quarterback simply means a signal caller with mobility.  Initially, I was one of those people.  But eventually I became unsatisfied with such a murky definition.  If a point guard quarterback is just a mobile one, then why not just say “mobile quarterback?”  Why invoke the point guard position in basketball?  Surely there must be a reason.

After a bit of research, I came to learn that the point guard analogy is actually a two way street, as point guards in basketball are often referred to as “the quarterback” of the basketball team.  This makes a lot of sense, as some of the greatest point guards, guys like John Stockton and Gary Payton, were more dangerous for their ability to assist than to score directly.  Yet their ability to score themselves was potent also.  Their threat to pass to teammates sometimes opened up chances to score themselves, and being a credible threat to score helped open up the pass.  Another thing about point guards, is that some of the best are very short by NBA standards.  John Stockton is perhaps the best point guard of all time, and he’s only 6’1″.  Steve Nash might be the best active point guard, and he’s 6’3″.  Gary Payton was 6’4″.   The average NBA player is 6’7″, and it was actually slightly higher in Stockton’s time.

So how does this analogy relate to this NFL?  A point guard dribbles the ball up just past mid court, holds up fingers to “call a play”, and as the offensive series evolves, he will eventually have a choice between passing and shooting.  Passing the ball to a more open team-mate is often better for scoring points.  However, occasionally a defender will not take the threat of the point guard shooting seriously and play the point guard soft.  If a wide open shot is available, a point guard will often take it.  Concisely speaking, a point guard prefers to pass, but will shoot if an open look is given.  In the NFL, the “pass” portion of the analogy represents passing the ball, and the “shoot” part means to run.  A typical point guard will take his fair share of shots, but he will pass multiple times for every shot he takes.

A critical part of this analogy is that unlike some NFL quarterbacks, a point guard quarterback will not lock onto a primary receiver all game long.  Just like how an NBA point guard doesn’t just pass the ball to his best player, but the other 4 members on his team; a point guard quarterback distributes the ball to as many receivers, at as many locations, as possible.  Doing so stretches a defense, and can help open up the #1 wide receiver when it counts.  In boxing, a common strategy is to attack where the gloves ain’t, meaning that if he’s guarding his face, attack the body, and when he guards the body, attack the face.  This kind of strategy wears down opponents and ultimately proves more effective in tough fights than just going exclusively for face hits.

As far as the shoot portion of the analogy, a good point guard must also be able to shoot the ball at least somewhat well, because if he shows no threat to do so, defenders can just swamp him without any worries about the risk that entails (being blown by for an easy layup).  That’s an exaggeration for effect, but essentially, its tougher to defend two things than one.   That said, shooting is always the 2nd option, unless the point guard really is the best player on the team (as it was for Payton and Nash for parts of their careers).  A point guard quarterback is the same.  A 5 yard run is better than throwing the ball out of bounds, and if a defense gives it to you, you slide and take it.

So to clear up misconception #1, a point guard quarterback is not a run first position, as the ability to run the football is important, but far less important than the ability to pass the ball.  A lot of people assumed that Jake Locker would be a Seahawk had he reached the 25th pick, since he averaged over 100 carries at year at Washington.  As it turns out, Jake Locker was much lower on Seattle’s draft board than many thought (through an inside source, Rob revealed Seattle’s quarterback draft board earlier this year and Locker was quite low on it).  Further, the Seahawks war room actually erupted into smiles and applause the moment that Locker went well ahead of them, just as they did when the Rams selected Robert Quinn.   Does that sound like the reaction of a disappointed group?  Jake Locker could run, but he tended to have tunnel vision with his receivers, as attested by Jermaine Kearse and Devin Aguilar having several monster games, but almost never at the same time.  He was also a big play quarterback with a 54% completion rate and below average pocket presence.  If just being a mobile quarterback was enough, then Locker was that in spades.  But clearly it was not.

So if the position is not run first, why is mobility emphasized?  There are two reasons.  The first is that a viable threat to run is yet another way to stress out a defense, and while the point guard position was designed to make a quarterback’s life easy, it ironically (or fittingly?) makes defending it a total headache.  If a point guard type checks all the boxes, he can make a defense worry about defending both sides of the field, defend every running back, tight end, and receiver near equally, and have to cover short, intermediate, and deep in near equal parts, plus defending against a quarterback running himself, and also defending against effective play action fakes and non-fakes (the running game is a crucial part of a team that runs this type of offense).  Like the boxer analogy, the ability to run is like adding an extra body area to hit.  The 2nd and perhaps more important reason for the mobility requirement is elusiveness.  The point guard role is not structured but fluid and instinctive; improvisation is required on many plays.  Great pocket presence might be the biggest asset of all to a point guard type.  He must feel pressure and use his mobility to buy extra time both outside the pocket and within it.  Jeff Garcia, when playing in his natural point guard role, was a pretty effective quarterback and huge reason for that was his penchant for completing passes at the very last instant after buying time with his feet.  An elusive quarterback can turn sacks into completions, which is why the good ones excel so much at building long drives.

Another misconception is that point guard quarterbacks are game managers.  This is almost true but not quite.  They are similar in that both types of quarterbacks strongly emphasize possession plays over big plays.  Point guard quarterbacks are known for long drives as are game managers.  Both game managers and point guard quarterbacks stress having few interceptions.  The difference is that point guard quarterbacks actually have balls about it.  A game manager type rarely throws the ball more than 10 yards down the field and typically features a below average yards per attempt.  A point guard type will pass short, intermediate, and deep, all to keep the defense as honest as possible.  Andrew Luck is an effective point guard type.  His YPA is 9.50, one of the best in college football.  Michael Vick (under Andy Reid) is an NFL contemporary of the role.  He had a 8.1 YPA last year (7.9 so far in 2011), which was good for 4th best in the NFL.  A game manager role is given to quarterbacks with limited ability.  A point guard role is similar, but given to players with a lot of natural ability.

For this reason, high accuracy has added importance for a point guard quarterback.  Incompletions and sacks lead to unfavorable down and distance, and the point guard system is built to reduce both.  This is critical, because a point guard offense is built around maintaining drives more than big plays.  Due to the instinctive, less structured nature of the role, and its high emphasis on spreading the ball, comfort checking multiple reads is also further emphasized.  Though the point guard role is designed to make a quarterback’s life easier, it is actually quite demanding in terms of having skills.  Having elite measurables is optional, but having poor innate talent with the fundamentals is not.

Finally, I mentioned before that some of the best point guards in the NBA have been much shorter than the average NBA height.  Similarly, many notable point guard quarterbacks have below average height as well.   A typical NFL quarterback is 6’4″.  The prototypical Steve Young is 6’2″.  Michael Vick is 6’1″.  Jeff Garcia is 6’1″.  I think the reason for this is that in the NBA, point guards typically play far away from the basket, so height is less of an issue.  In the NFL, height is less of an issue since point guard quarterbacks move so much in the pocket that they can usually find windows to look through, even if their lineman stand a few inches taller.  By no means do I think the role cancels out the need for certain height requirements, I don’t think a 5’8″ quarterback would succeed even as a point guard type.  But I do think that mobility behind the line helps cancel out the extra couple inches of height.  And of course, there is nothing wrong with having a tall point guard type.  Josh Freeman is 6’6″.  Its just that for whatever reason, most point guard types tend to be shorter.  Perhaps its because their height is what put them in that system to begin with.  Or because physical elusiveness in taller people is uncommon.

Regarding Keith Price:

Some of these concepts I knew from the research I did earlier this year, but it was when I watched Keith Price take over for Jake Locker about a month ago that the concept fully came into focus.  In almost every way, he is the perfect example of what a point guard quarterback is.

First, let me be clear about something.   This essay is not about discussing Keith Price:  NFL draft prospect.  Its merely to highlight Price as an example of what a true point guard quarterback looks like, without having to venture any further than Lake Washington for evidence.  So with that in mind, consider this comparison between two pro-style college quarterbacks:

Quarterback A:  69.4% completion rate, 8.62 YPA, 21 TD, 4 INT, 177.9 rating (sacked 11 times in 6 games)

Quarterback B:  71.3% completion rate, 9.50 YPA, 18 TD, 3 INT, 180.5 rating (sacked 2 times in 6 games)

Pretty close huh?  The first quarterback is Keith Price, and the second is Andrew Luck.  Both quarterback’s play the point guard role in a similar offense, in the same conference, in the same sub-division of that conference.  In fact, they actually play against each other on national television this weekend.  There are issues comparing the performances of college quarterbacks in many cases, but as both Stanford and Washington play very similar schedules and basically run the same kind of offenses, it makes a comparison worth making.  I’m hardly the only one to notice the similarities, today’s copy of USA Today made a similar statistical comparison between the two.

Luck has a small edge in completion rate, YPA, and interceptions, but Price has a small edge in touchdown passes and has been sacked five and a half times as often.  Eleven sacks allowed in six games is actually not that bad, and its more of a testament to Price’s elusive nature than his unimposing line.  By contrast, Andrew Luck throws behind perhaps the best line in all college football, with two members currently being projected in the mid to high first round of the 2012 draft.  Its just silly that Andrew Luck has one of the best interception per pass rates in football, yet has more interceptions than sacks taken.  Luck is having his best year yet: one of the very best pro-style system seasons in college football history.  And yet the unheralded redshirt sophomore Keith Price is right there with him in his first six games since being named the starter- by far the best 6 game stretch by any Husky quarterback or any Husky offense in its history.  In half a season, he’s already 5th all time for TDs in Huskies history for a single season.  The record is 28, and he’s on pace for 45 or 46.

That’s not to say that Price can hold water to Luck as an NFL prospect.  Please do not interpret this analogy as such.  If anything, the wide gap in physical attributes only furthers a point I wish to make, that a great point guard quarterback can put up elite production without all the elite measurables.

And besides, I didn’t really make this post to talk about production, though its certainly been outstanding out Price’s part.  I made this post to illustrate what a real point guard quarterback looks like.  And Keith Price is just that.  Moreso than even Andrew Luck.  More than just about any quarterback I’ve seen.  So lets get to it:

For starters, Keith Price is 6’1″ with a weight listed at 200 pounds (listed at 195 some places).  Height is not a real concern, since as stated before many successful NFL point guard types were around that height.  Price is outstanding at maneuvering behind his line, and he seems to see his targets just fine because of it.  His line may not be very good, but they are NFL sized.  Height will not be an issue for Price in the NFL.  His weight though… its a major concern.  Most NFL quarterbacks sit around 225 pounds, and 220 is considered to be somewhat fringe, although point guard types are typically lighter weight.  Michael Vick is 215, as was Steve Young, and Jeff Garcia was only 205.

Those players were effective in the role, but they were also no stranger to injuries.  This is true for Price as well.  He’s played hurt in all six games to date, namely with two bad knees and recently a tweaked ankle.  I’d be exaggerating if I said Price comes up limping after every hit he’s taken, but not by much.

That he’s put up the numbers he has in the context of his injury bug is astonishing, and also evidence that mobility is not the end all of a true point guard quarterback.  Price has got decent wheels when healthy, but he’s only had 15 net rushing yards so far in six games.  That’s fewer rush yards than passing touchdowns.  Despite this, Price’s ability to be elusive in the pocket has remained mostly intact, which shows how much more valuable elusiveness is than running ability as a point guard quarterback.

Bottom line though, Price needs to add a more weight to his frame, and cut it out with the constant injuries.  His frame is far from maxed out, and i think he could probably get all the way to 220 if he really wanted to.  I’d say he needs to at least reach 215 if he wants to be a first round pick some day.

Price’s arm strength seemed suspect early in the year against Eastern Washington.  Like Tarvaris Jackson, Price was more of a “tosser” than a “thrower,” emphasizing accuracy and catchability over speed of arrival.  That changed as the season progressed, and after the learning experience that was the Nebraska shootout, Price seemed to perfect this pass throwing:  arriving with decent zip but while maintaining accuracy and a soft catch.  That progress crested in last weeks game against Colorado, when Price had four touchdown passes (to four different targets) in just the first half, and was pulled shortly after due to the blowout score. Price has developed an impressive deep ball, which rivals Jake Locker’s despite the gap in arm strength.  This was evidenced by a 70 yard touchdown pass to beat Cal in the 4th quarter (50 in the air) to Chris Polk (!).

Price’s body language is a little tentative; he’s not as hesitant as Tarvaris Jackson, but I’d say he’s on that side of the spectrum.  Still, almost every throw he’s made has been money, and he’s only thrown 4 interceptions in 170 attempts (1 per 42.5).  Recently against Colorado, he ran full no huddle to devastating effect.  Price is an instinctive quarterback and really shines even more in a fast paced offense.  Its hard to criticize Price for not looking aggressive when the results suggest the opposite.

His throwing mechanics are pretty good.  He has a high release point, a quick arm motion, and a very nice compact tuck move that makes his pump fakes deadly effective.  His footwork needs work, and often I’ll catch him making throws flat footed with his feet spread out pretty far.  Its actually not very different from Jake Locker’s footwork in the pocket, which a lot of scouts believed was the source of his inaccuracy.  Well, accuracy hasn’t been a problem for Price.  I wonder if that speaks well of Price or poorly of his predecessor?

Price is generally outstanding on his execution, with a very convincing play action and good deal of comfort throwing on the move.  I haven’t charted left vs. right yet, but given how ridiculously good he’s been, I’m not expecting much of a split.

Price is a highly accurate quarterback, perhaps even more so than his 69% season rate indicates.  For example, against Utah he completed 73% of his passes, and of the eight total incompletions he had, four of those were drops (three by Devin Aguilar alone).   His completion rates since opening Pac-12 play: 76%, 73%, 75%.  His passes are generally either in the middle of the receivers body or leading them perfectly if its a vertical route.  I think its worth emphasizing how much the soft touch on his passes helps him, other than the mini-drop fest at Utah.  He’s suffered fewer drops than Jake Locker, who threw the ball with about as much subtlety as a bazooka.

Price has excellent pocket presence, feeling pressure without having to see it, and doing more than simply stepping up in the pocket, but moving just inches out of harms way constantly to buy time.  I wouldn’t say his elusiveness is at an elite level, but its probably on par with Andrew Luck’s.

Price regularly checks through multiple reads with ease, which is a fairly rare attribute in a college quarterback.  During the Colorado game, Price even used his eyes to deceive defenders on two of his touchdown passes.  The first was when he appeared to stare down a target on his left, freezing the safeties, then immediately turned and hit Jermaine Kearse for a wide open touchdown up the middle, almost without looking first.   Later, he would sell a stare-down in the middle of the field, then attempt to quick hit Polk on the left.  Polk wasn’t wide open, so Price added a great pump fake for good measure, before throwing a perfect pass that only Polk could catch.

I want to give a big shout-out to qbsacker5394, who posted each of Washington’s three Pac-12 games on Youtube (he also has the other three games if you check his channel).  His videos show every notable play from the broadcast, compressed into 13 to 14 minutes.  Not every play unfortunately, but still good for getting an idea.  I’ve already seen the games live, but for anyone that wants to get a better look at Keith Price (or RB Chris Polk, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or DT Alameda Ta’amu) themselves, they should definitely check his videos out.

This has become one of the longer posts I’ve ever done, and I still have things to say about Price.  But I’ll sum it up as such, Keith Price is playing at a high level, and in every way that is essential to the point guard quarterback, he’s excelled.  I’d consider him a somewhat polished quarterback that has a few things to work on, and I think its encouraging that he’s gotten better with each game as the seasons gone on.  Keith Price is a somewhat unlikely option for the Seahawks, as will probably declare in 2013 or 2014, and for the love of God I hope this front office has their quarterback by then.

But I must say, watching Keith Price’s first six games has been instructional- witnessing a point guard quarterback play almost the same exact offense as Seattle’s, from a Pete Carroll disciple no less.  And he’s done it so damn well, despite having what looks to be on the surface just average talents.  We may not get Price, but Price’s success shows that if a quarterback fits his role well enough, he can put up amazing production in a pro-style system without playing in a first round body.  If Seattle can somehow acquire Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley, then awesome.  Please do.  But in the likely event that doesn’t happen, Seattle could still find its salvation through their own version of Keith Price.  Maybe Tarvaris Jackson could be that guy.  Or Josh Portis.  Or Ryan Tannehill.  Or Robert Griffin.  Or maybe even Keith Price himself.

Why I’m rooting for Landry Jones

by Kip Earlywine

In my opinion, there are two truly special quarterback prospects in this draft (assuming they declare):  Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley.  After that, there’s a drop off point to the remaining quarterbacks, including Landry Jones.  I’m not as critical of the remaining quarterback group as Rob is, but I do agree that there is a big difference in quality after Barkley leaves the board.

However, I think its fairly certain that there will be more than two quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round.  On his current trajectory, I have a hard time seeing Landry Jones escaping it.  For one, quarterback prospects with no doubter first round tools usually become first round picks almost regardless of whatever issues they may have.  In recent years both Jake Locker and Josh Freeman have provided examples of this.  For another, teams value production, and Jones has certainly had plenty of that.  On a high profile, high ranked team no less.  You put that all together, and its very hard not seeing Jones as a top 15 pick, even if his game is far from perfect under close scrutiny.

And I think that’s a good thing, maybe a great thing.  And not because I think Seattle will draft Jones, but for the opposite reason.  A few notable draft experts have been harsh to Matt Barkley, giving him a grade in the late 1st round.  The real debate about this upcoming draft should be Luck vs. Barkley, but I suspect the actual debate will become Barkley vs. Jones for the honor of being the second quarterback off the board.  Luck’s draft hype is approaching legendary status, and he’s done nothing on the field to dispel it.  With Luck’s star shining so brightly, it creates the illusion that Matt Barkley is somehow a much lesser quarterback, which opens the door for Landry Jones.

The thing about draft stock is that so much of it is built on hype and reputation.  Right now, Landry Jones is leading an undefeated team that ranks #2 in the nation.  He’s likely to break Sam Bradford’s school records for passing.  What if he wins the national championship?  If he does that, you might even have some draft personalities playfully comparing his stock to Andrew Luck’s.  The storylines write themselves:  Jones even wears the same #12 jersey number as Andrew Luck (oddly enough, so does Austin Davis and John Brantley- two other QBs who could potentially force their way into round one).

So why is this  a good thing?  Well for one, anything that pushes Matt Barkley down the draft board is a good thing for the Seahawks.  Seattle has probably blown its chances for the #1 pick already, and after an impressive performance against the Falcons, I’m thinking 5 or 6 wins is certainly a possibility for 2011 Seahawks.  Perhaps Barkley could slip to the 10th pick after being leapfrogged by a bigger, stronger competitor like Blaine Gabbert was earlier this year, or like how Matt Leinart was in 2006.

The second reason that high draft stock for Jones is good thing:  it creates the perception that this is a quarterback heavy class, which might help entice a #1 picking team to trade out of Andrew Luck; the same way that Philip Rivers helped facilitate a deal for Eli Manning.  What if Landry Jones reaches Seattle’s pick, and a trade of Jones plus two future 1st round picks is enough to entice the top picking franchise into moving Luck?  Depending on how highly they rate Jones, that’s a possibility.  Same thing for Matt Barkley.  Its an expensive offer, but one Seattle should absolutely consider making.

A third reason would be that if Jones fell to the Seahawks pick, and Barkley was already gone, Seattle could use Jones as an incentive for other teams to trade with them.  Trading down in the first round isn’t easy, unless you’ve got a valued quarterback in your draft slot.  Trading down could make more sense than ever in 2012, as the first round prospects are looking weaker than usual but the 2nd round is looking relatively strong.  Seattle could swing Landry Jones and pick up Ryan Tannehill (or Austin Davis) plus Chris Polk in exchange.  Tannehill isn’t completely perfect, but at a minimum, I think he’s got what it takes to be an ideal fit as a point guard quarterback, and with a little time, could produce.  I think he’s the 2nd best point guard quarterback in this draft after Luck, and probably the 4th best quarterback overall.  I’ll refrain from grading Davis as I’ve seen so little of him, but what I’ve seen has impressed me.  Chris Polk deserves a topic in itself, but I think its hard to ignore the success he’s had in almost an identical offense to Seattle’s.

So why not have the Seahawks just draft Landry Jones for themselves?  I want to be clear that this post is not going to be a scouting report, and I won’t go into details just yet about his game.  That said, I’m a fan of Jones, and for the right team I could see him becoming successful in the NFL, but I don’t think that team is Pete Carroll’s Seahawks.  Recent events have convinced me of Pete Carroll’s true aim at quarterback.  I’ll have a separate post on this topic soon.  But for now, I’ll only say that I have a hard time seeing Pete Carroll drafting Landry Jones because of several trait mismatches.  Its possible that John Schneider could feel differently and create a behind the scenes controversy (I hope not, nor do I expect that), but outside of that remote possibility, I don’t think Seattle would draft him.   I won’t go in depth right now, but the reason I feel this way is because Landry Jones isn’t mobile, he’s inconsistent, and he’s a big play type quarterback.  Or to put it another way, he’s a less extreme Ryan Mallett with fewer NFL skills, and the front office avoided Mallett like the plague.  Mallett was a complicated case, but given that Carroll has already waited this long to find “Mr. Right” at quarterback, I don’t think he’d compromise now.

If Seattle can’t finish with the worst record in football to secure Luck (and they won’t), the next best thing is to hope for a crowded quarterback class at the top.  The more options there are at the top of the draft, the more likely the quarterback Seattle actually wants could fall to their pick, and potential attempts to maneuver for a quarterback either up or down would be easier to pull off as well.

Luck vs. Barkley: Who fits Seattle best?

by Kip Earlywine

I realize the title of this post may sound overly presumptuous.  Seattle is only 2 games into the 2011 season, and to have a realistic shot at Matt Barkley, they would probably have to win fewer than 6 games (maybe less).  To have a realistic shot at Andrew Luck, they may have to win fewer than 2 games.  Seattle is a bad team, but with only a small sample size to work with, its too early to intellectually give up on the 2011 season, even if some of us already have emotionally.  Its entirely possible the Seahawks could win 6 games, especially if they make a change at QB sooner instead of later.  When its all said and done, its possible that neither player reaches Seattle in such a situation.  Talking about Luck vs. Barkley next April would probably be a waste of time if Seattle is picking 12th overall.

But there is a reason we, and even the national media, have been linking the Seahawks to these two quarterbacks.  Seattle is one of the most QB needy teams in the NFL, and they are also one of the league’s worst teams on paper.  Michael Lombardi recently said that the Seahawks reminded him of an expansion team, a point I struggle to disagree with.   At least right now, Seattle is still “in the hunt” for these two QBs, so for right now, its a worthy discussion about which QB would be the wiser investment.  If Seattle picked #1 overall, or if somehow both QBs reached Seattle’s pick, which one should they choose?

Before I get to the players themselves, I need to discuss what might be the single most under-rated aspect of evaluating any prospect:  how well does he fit the scheme you are implementing?  In fact, I’d argue this is near the top end of importance for any position.  For example, consider how size matters for Seattle’s intentions with press coverage, or on the defensive line, or at wide receiver.  Its a big reason why Seattle has had good results from Red Bryant, seen encouraging signs from Richard Sherman, and had success with Mike Williams.  A big reason for the resurgence of Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock is that their pure pass rush skills fit well with the LEO role.  On the other side of the coin, we needn’t look any further than Tarvaris Jackson’s poor pocket presence to see how two weak areas on a team can compound each other.

Scheme consideration was, in my opinion, the biggest reason why Seattle never even considered Ryan Mallett earlier this year.  A lot of people talked about Mallett’s character concerns, but Seattle hasn’t shown much aversion to character risk types.  Rather, I think they viewed Mallett as a pure pocket QB who built his game off of the big play, and that didn’t jive with what Seattle is looking for: a quarterback who is capable of consistently building long drives while avoiding big risks.  I don’t think they have anything against “the big play,” but based on the way that they devalued Locker and Mallett, I would assume they resist QBs who have “propensity for the big play” at the top of their NFL resume.

Many comments have been made about Seattle’s desire for a “point guard” quarterback.  This has confused a lot of fans as the term is not often used and is easily misunderstood.  Here is a quick explanation:  A point guard in basketball plays the ball distribution role on the team.  If he has an open look at the basket, he’ll take a shot, but more often than not, he’ll pass to a teammate with a more open look.  In the NFL, the “shoot” part of the analogy means the quarterback will take off and run if doing so is uncontested.  The “pass” analogy is more direct, as it also means to pass the ball.  A point guard typically passes more than he shoots, and a point guard QB will typically pass more than he runs.  Examples of point guard quarterbacks currently in the NFL include Josh Freeman and Michael Vick.  I’m just speculating, but, I find it less than coincidental that all this talk about Carroll wanting a point guard quarterback came just a few months after he watched Josh Freeman toast his defense (21/26, 237 yards, 5 TD, no picks).  I’ve noticed that coaches tend to be biased in favor of players who kicked their butts.

Is Matt Barkley a point guard quarterback?

Not really.  He’s more of a pocket passer who runs occasionally.  He plays with “heavy legs” as I call it, meaning that he doesn’t look explosive or lightweight on his dropback and isn’t explosive when he takes off.  Barkley may very well run a 4.8 forty in a straight line, but I think that number covers up what looks like decent but not elite athleticism.  That said, Barkley isn’t completely glued to the pocket: he’s had 79 rush attempts in his first two seasons, or about three a game.  He’s a far cry from Ryan Mallett last year in this regard.  Barkley could succeed in the passing portion of the point guard role in that he’s perfectly capable of checking multiple reads and leading long, sustained drives.  He’s also excellent at executing play action and is above average on bootlegs- two areas of importance for a Pete Carroll quarterback.  Matt Barkley has a big play component to his game, but its not the first thing off the tongue when discussing him.  The first thing people mention when talking about Barkley is generally that he’s a very efficient, well rounded, NFL ready quarterback.

Maybe I should refrain from making an NFL comparison for either of these quarterbacks.  Comparisons to successful NFL quarterbacks lead to unfair and sometimes inaccurate expectations.  Need I remind anyone that Bill Walsh compared Rick Mirer to Joe Montana?  On the other hand, looking at comparable quarterbacks in the NFL is a good tool for determining the kind of system a prospect would be best in, so I decided to look over a list of successful quarterbacks to see if any of them strongly resembled Matt Barkley’s game.  Going in, I had a hunch he’d resemble Aaron Rodgers, but as it turns out, not really.  My instincts pointed at Rodgers, a fellow 6’2″ quarterback with an excellent ability to read defenses and all the arm/release goodness to get it done, but the comparison does come up short in one way, and that is that Rodgers plays with significantly more mobility.  After repeating this exercise for several other quarterbacks, I did find one player who looked eerily similar, even down to the little details.  Ironically,  it turned out to be a blindingly obvious comparison that I should have made much sooner.  Check these two out, side by side:

That’s right, Carson Palmer.  If it wasn’t such a dead on comparison, I’d feel ashamed for using it just for how lazy it appears on the surface.   Palmer ran a 4.63 forty time at his pro day, but never became a threat running the ball.  Palmer also has that same “tired legs” dropback, and isn’t an explosive rusher.  Both have nearly identical looking mechanics, pump fakes, and decisive natures.  Both check multiple reads with impressive speed.   I’d probably give Palmer a slight edge in athleticism, but its close, and Palmer was never known as a dual threat quarterback at any time in the NFL.  The biggest difference between the two is size, Palmer has got about two or three inches of height and 15 pounds on Barkley.  Barkley’s size is certainly NFL adequate though.

While its clear that Barkley does not fit the typical point guard quarterback mold, he looks like the mirror image of a quarterback Seattle just spent months hoping to trade for.  And then, obviously, you have the connection Barkley and Carroll share from USC.  Barkley is not a perfect fit, but is he on the radar?  You bet your ass.

Is Andrew Luck a point guard quarterback?

The answer is a surprisingly emphatic “yes.”  Luck has rushed the ball 116 times the last two seasons, and if you’ve ever sat down and watched Andrew Luck play a full game, its obvious that mobility is a huge part of what makes him so effective.  In 2010, he out-rushed Jake Locker in fewer than half the rush attempts, for an outstanding 8.4 yards per carry average.  That high average speaks not just of Luck’s running ability, but to the intelligent timing of when he decides to run.

Luck also completed 70.1% of his passes in 2010, which is astronomically high for having played in a pro style offense.  Andrew Luck is probably the best pro-style college quarterback we’ve seen at grinding out long drives in many years.  Like every good point guard quarterback, Luck excels at spreading the football, although he did show a strong preference for targeting Doug Baldwin.  Conveniently, Baldwin is already a Seahawk and playing himself into the slot receiver role.

Andrew Luck is constantly mentioned in the same breath as Peyton Manning.  While its a great honor to be compared to arguably the greatest quarterback on Earth, I always felt it was a pretty weak comparison when putting on the tape.  Manning has always been a fairly pure pocket passing quarterback.  A much closer analogy would be a right-handed Steve Young.  Young currently holds the best career passer rating among non-active quarterbacks, and is 2nd all time for rushing yards by a quarterback.  Luck has been known for long, impressive runs, including a 58 yard touchdown run last year.  Perhaps the most famous play Steve Young ever made was this run against the Vikings.  Young was also a guy that didn’t run too much, he only ran when running the ball was the most sensible thing to do.  In my opinion, Steve Young is the greatest point guard quarterback of all time, and Luck bears a strong resemblance to him.

As noted in an excellent fieldgulls article by Dan Kelly, Pete Carroll’s book Win Forever mentions how the current Seahawks coach had a formative moment with Bill Walsh back when Carroll was the 49ers defensive coordinator.  Walsh was out of coaching at this time, but was apparently still closely connected to the 49ers organization.  Pete Carroll sought Walsh out, trying to soak up any insights he could offer.  One of the things Carroll recalled about that time was this:

“We talked a lot about the quarterback position. Coach Walsh was one of the great quarterback gurus in the history of the game, and he convinced me that everything a coach does in designing his offense should be about making it easy for his quarterback, because his job is so difficult. He believed that everything should be be structured with the quarterback in mind.”

This pretty much goes to the heart of what Seattle truly wants at quarterback.  They aren’t looking for a Peyton Manning type who can carry the fortunes of a franchise all by himself.  Rather, they are looking for the kind of guy who can walk into a system and have immediate and strong success due to strong synergies with his supporting cast.

A guy like Steve Young, who just happened to be the quarterback of the 49ers during Carroll’s tenure there.

Andrew Luck isn’t just a fantastic quarterback prospect, he’s a perfect fit for what the Seahawks are looking for at quarterback.  I look at Matt Barkley and I see a guy who is going to be a very good, championship level player in the NFL.  But I look at Andrew Luck, and look at how he fits this team, and the word “special” comes to mind.  If Seattle was just some faceless team without any major preferences and could build around either guy, I’d probably take Barkley by a nose (although the remainder of the season could change that opinion).  But considering the rather strict preferences Pete Carroll has for quarterbacks, its hard to ignore just how perfectly Andrew Luck fits them.  If Seattle picks 1st overall, I doubt they’d pass on Luck for Barkley or anyone else.  In the end, we should be very excited should Seattle be privileged enough to land either one.

The June 3rd hearing and what it could mean

Posted by Kip Earlywine

There hasn’t been a lot of NFL news since the draft, and that’s been because the NFL and Player’s reps have pretty much decided not to talk* until after hearing the ruling from the 8th circuit court of appeals.  I’m not a law major, but my layman’s understanding is that because the first judge (Nelson) ruled in favor of the players, the Owner’s appealed and sent it to the 8th circuit, which will begin hearing arguments tomorrow and is expected to make a ruling in 4-6 weeks.

There was a short but good read on the situation posted at the bleacher report today.  It only takes a few minutes to read and is easy to understand, but there were a couple of parts I’d like to highlight:

“The current feeling after the Eighth Circuit Court granted the owners’ request for a stay of the injunction (to keep the Lockout in place) is that they will rule in favor of the owners.”

He provides reasoning why he thinks the 8th circuit leans in favor of the owners, then later he adds:

“However, I’m more concerned with what might happen if the players lose, not the owners.  DeMaurice Smith seems like a man on a mission and has a serious case of tunnel vision.  If they lose this appeal, he may very well appeal this all the way to the Supreme Court.  If that happens, you can all but kiss the 2011 season goodbye.”

I definitely agree with the latter part, and I’ll trust the writer on the former.  Not just Smith, but seemingly every player rep I’ve heard speak on these issues have taken a hard line- a no compromise stance.  In some ways, I really do feel for the players and I understand their reasons for not budging an inch.  But at least the owners have offered compromises, and if they lose, I could see them compromising further, which may potentially get the players to bite.  However if the players lose, I have a very hard time seeing them budging, since they won the first ruling and because they essentially feel “wronged” in this whole thing.

And its true that if the players do lose and decide to appeal (very likely), it would then go all the way to the Supreme Court, which would take a very long time to reach a hearing, if they get one at all.  If that happens, then forget about the 2011 season.

And this would be especially troublesome for the Seahawks, who were handicapped in the draft and have to rely more than usual on trade/free agency this year.  And while we don’t know exactly how the 2012 draft would play out after a cancelled 2011 season, it doesn’t help the Seahawks odds of getting the high pick they’d need for a franchise QB prospect.

Of course, there isn’t reason to despair just yet.  The ruling won’t be made until July most likely.  But I find myself actually rooting for the players on this one, even though I generally support the owners.  Because like the author of the article I linked, there is more hope of spurned discussions should the owners lose this ruling.

*although rumor has it that Goodell had a “secret” meeting today with 3 major owners, and later on there was a general closed door meeting between the owners and players.  Who knows if this actually means anything, but at least the two sides are talking to each other again.

John Schneider speaks candidly about the 2011 draft

Not pictured: Poker face

Posted by Kip Earlywine

John Schneider was recently interviewed on 950 am on the Mitch in the Morning program.  If you haven’t heard it, you can listen by following this link.

I don’t know if this was on purpose, but in several ways, John Schneider’s regime has been the polar opposite his predecessor’s.  No issues with drafting from small schools.  Character concerns are given relatively little consideration.  Size, speed, and athleticism are generally considered above intangibles and college production.  He brings a massive emphasis on the offensive line and the running game.  And he hasn’t been a regular player for big name free agents the way Tim Ruskell always seemed to be.

But maybe the biggest difference of all could be how the two play their cards.  Tim Ruskell, despite having drafts that often felt very predictable, would almost never go into gritty details even after the fact, like a professional poker player who won’t show the hand he just folded.  Not so for John Schneider.

I won’t rehash the whole interview, but there were a few portions that really grabbed my attention.

  1. Schneider said that James Carpenter was the teams #2 overall tackle prospect, ahead of USC’s Tyron Smith.  That speaks volumes of how highly they thought of Carpenter, since Carroll knew as well as anyone about Smith’s abilities.  With this in mind, it’s looking more and more that Seattle went BPA at #25, at least in their own minds, rather than reaching for a need.
  2. I like the way this front office evaluates talent, but every now and then, I’m left scratching my head.  The #1 tackle on their board was Nate Solder.  I need to send Bill Belichick a thank you card.
  3. I still don’t like the KJ Wright pick, but its neat that Minnesota called Seattle to make a deal to move up in the 4th, and after Seattle picked Wright instead, Minnesota let Seattle know they were targeting the same guy.
  4. He also hinted at Seattle making big changes on the defensive line in free agency.  But given Ted Thompson’s and John Schneider’s combined background, its safe to say it probably won’t be overly splashy.
  5. He talked about undrafted free agents like they were major signings.  He didn’t name names, but I thought it was interesting that every single player he hinted at played defense.  I think its kind of funny that Schneider is so jazzed about signing UDFA’s.  Of the 15 he signed last year, only Josh Pinkard is still on the roster.
  6. He didn’t talk about Chris Spencer, but talked about Unger and Moffitt in a way that would indicate that Unger has already been anointed the future at center.
  7. In maybe the most profound moment of the interview, Schneider casually asserted his philosophy that a team needs to build an offensive line first before getting its quarterback.  I know this subject is hotly debated but here we see clearly which side of the debate Schneider falls on.
  8. Finally, he said Charlie Whitehurst has a “50-50” chance of being the starter next year, but in a rare case of evasiveness, probably only gave that answer not to be truthful but to be as vague as possible.  I think its pretty clear that Seattle is going to only start Whitehurst after a dozen other options for veterans fall through.

Anyway, regardless of whether I agree with everything John Schneider says, its very refreshing to have a GM that will give us an inside look and help scratch some of those curiosities we’ve had lingering.  As far as being a better poker player, I’m not going to say that guarding information isn’t important, but it didn’t help Tim Ruskell much and it hasn’t really hurt John Schneider.  When it comes to the most important things, Schneider is good enough at keeping things on the down low, and he’s been wise about choosing which topics to share with the public later.  And that’s something I appreciate quite a bit as a fan, since we watch sports to be entertained, and that includes the offseason as well.

My thoughts and scouting report for James Carpenter

If the draft were held a couple of weeks later, would James Carpenter still be considered a "reach"?

Posted by Kip Earlywine

Foreword: Much like an election, the draft has a horse-race element within itself.  A prospect’s stock isn’t a static thing.  It’s in a constant state of change and movement.  Consider for example, Jake Locker’s draft stock as it was twelve months ago, then six months ago, then last Thursday.  Where was Da’Quan Bowers’, or Justin Houston’s, or Marcus Cannon’s draft stock two weeks ago?   Where was Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder’s stock four months ago?

No one talks about players like Corey Liuget or Von Miller as reaches, and yet they were given 3rd round grades by the NFL draft committee at the beginning of this offseason.  They worked hard, impressed scouts and coaches, and front offices began to see them in a new light.  Both rose quickly and by the time the draft had rolled around they were long established first round draft prospects.  In the eyes of many, they had justified being taken as highly as they were.

James Carpenter had a similar rise.  It just happened to be in the 11th hour of the process.  We’ve heard talk that if Seattle had not chosen Carpenter, that both Baltimore and Chicago had him rated very highly.  We also know that Green Bay wanted Carpenter pretty badly and took Derek Sherrod as a fallback option.  Anyone that says Carpenter was a mid 2nd round prospect probably reads week old newspapers as they sip their morning coffee.

Its human nature to want your team to draft “big names:” guys who had been talked about frequently in the media.  But its important to remember that front offices and coaches will generally avoid hyping players they actually want to pick.  Remember that Tim Ruskell showed absolutely zero interest in Aaron Curry before ecstatically selecting him 4th overall in the 2009 draft.

Similarly, its becoming very clear that multiple front offices picking at the end of round one viewed Carpenter as a bit of a gem, but kept their evaluations to themselves for obvious reasons.  You can only keep a lid on something for so long before it boils over.  We can only speculate, but offensive line, perhaps more than any position in football, is built on reputation, and drafting a lineman is no different.  Once it gets out there that multiple front offices have a player high on their boards, it almost doesn’t matter what his actual draft stock is.  That’s how guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were almost first round picks.

It sounds like several front offices rated Carpenter pretty highly, and if that information slips out there two weeks ago, suddenly Carpenter is in every single first round mock.  Just like that, Carpenter is a bargain pick at #25- even though in reality nothing whatsoever has changed about the guy.  Perception is a powerful thing, and the better front offices find ways to make their best evaluations, even if it seemingly defies conventional wisdom.  That’s because sometimes, conventional wisdom can be a little behind the times.

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