Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 10 of 13)

Written by Kip Earlywine

(Earlier this morning Rob shared his thoughts on the RG3 trade to Washington, and how it could impact the rest of the draft.  Be sure to check that out if you haven’t seen it already.)

According to our insider source, Seattle is looking at adding a running back at some point in this year’s draft, potentially as early as the 12th overall pick depending on how the board falls.  Seattle has many other needs though, and that coupled with a deep running back class could cause them to address a few other areas first. That means Seattle could end up hunting for value at running back, snatching up one of the last few remaining big name talents around the 3rd round or so.  Its worth noting that we received this information about a month ago, long before the NFL combine or the recent events in free agency.  Since that time, Seattle has signed Marshawn Lynch to  a smart four year contract that pays him surprisingly little in the first two years while having an easy out in years three and four in a worst case scenario.

Yet perhaps the best thing about this week’s contract extension of Marshawn Lynch is how the move has potentially put more options on the table at running back.  The assumed motivation behind targeting a running back this year was to gain insurance in the event that Lynch was franchised then let go in 2013.  Injury depth is also believed to be a factor, since the Seahawks as currently constructed would be in a world of hurt if Lynch missed time with an injury next season.  This is probably the lesser consideration though considering that Lynch is only 26 years old next season and has a very strong health record despite his physical style of play.  In short, Seattle was looking for Lynch’s heir as a franchise back, making players like Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Chris Polk, and David Wilson prime candidates.  But considering Lynch’s durability, youth, and recent production, and his shiny new contract, it now appears that Marshawn Lynch will be Seattle’s long term solution at running back.  If that’s the case, we may see Seattle also consider a complimentary back much like Mike Holmgren once did when he spent a 2nd round pick on Oregon’s Maurice Morris to compliment Shaun Alexander.

LaMichael James is one running back option who lines up with many of Seattle’s criteria, and if Seattle is willing to consider change of pace types, James would likely top the list.

This front office has made it no secret that they target value on draft day and opportunity in free agency.  James is a very talented back being devalued because of his role in a run centric offense.  He’s also undersized, although NFL teams have shied away from small backs less and less in recent years.  For those reasons James is likely to be drafted lower than his on field talent deserves, making him the kind of  “value” selection that appeals to this front office.  Seattle got Kam Chancellor in the 5th because of speed concerns.  They got Richard Sherman in the 5th because he was a converted wide receiver.  KJ Wright was a toolsy linebacker who hadn’t yet put it together which allowed him to reach the 4th round.  James is being devalued for reasons that essentially have nothing to do with his talent, which makes him a potential bargain in the third round.  Like many previous mid round selections, that could give him some strong appeal to Seattle’s front office.

There were two major reasons for Marshawn Lynch’s big leap forward last season: a significant weight loss which increased Lynch’s speed and athleticism, and perhaps more importantly, a vast improvement in the interior run blocking, spearheaded by Max Unger and Robert Gallery.  Seattle’s rush attack looked slow and impotent attacking the edges, but it more than made up for it with a consistently strong inside rush attack.  While I scouted James, the thing that really surprised me about him is that for an undersized back with speed, he’s actually at his best rushing up the middle.  Despite his size he is a fearless runner that has great instincts and like Chris Polk, has a knack for forcing defenders to tackle at angles and using his surprising strength to pull the defender an extra yard or two.  He uses his size to his advantage to find creases at the first level, similar to the way Justin Forsett had in previous seasons.  A high number of James’ big plays started as running plays up the middle with no obvious hole to run through.

James also offers Seattle a dynamic kick return option.  Leon Washington is under contract through 2014, but he turns 30 just before the upcoming season begins and Seattle should be mindful of his eventual successor.

The biggest hangup to selecting James could be his perceived lack of durability due to his size.  And yet, James averaged over 20 carries a game during his Oregon career and only missed two games from injury, both coming last year after dislocating his elbow.  It seems logical to suggest that James’ body would wear down more quickly than other backs if given a full time load, but at the very least, James can shoulder the burden of a 250+ carry season here and there in the event that Lynch goes down with an injury early in the year.

Now granted, Oregon ran a very unique offense and nearly every handoff James took resembled a draw play.  That won’t happen in the NFL as an every down running back and it has yet to be seen how James would adjust to that.  That is why James will likely be a 3rd or 4th round pick instead of being a high second rounder as his talent deserves.  Still, if Seattle is hunting for value in the mid rounds and is okay with selecting a likely change of pace back who fits the offense and can serve as an emergency starter, LaMichael James could be a player to watch.

Below I’ve included a couple scouting videos of James:

vs. Oregon State 2011

2010 Compilation

Written by Kip Earlywine

Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV

This will be the finale of the this little quarterback miniseries.  Before I get to the final three quarterbacks I’d like to spotlight, let me first cover some quarterback options I suspect will not be drafted by Seattle:

Brock Osweiler / Ryan Tannehill: GM John Schneider had plenty of nice things to say about this pair of quarterbacks at the combine, which probably means he won’t draft them.  Who the heck talks up players they want to draft, anyway?  Its not that I think Schneider was being disingenuous.  Its just that I think that by the time Seattle plans on selecting a quarterback, both of these players will be long gone, and Schneider knows it.  If anything, perhaps its possible that he’s talking these guys up to help them get drafted before Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson.

Nick Foles: Foles is pretty much the antithesis of a point guard quarterback.  He has poor mobility, stares down receivers and generally plays in a pure one read spread offense.  Foles was statistically strong in his senior season, but it was purely because of the mindlessly simple offense he played in.  The Wildcats lost eight out of nine games at one point this last season, which helped get the head coach fired and probably strips Foles of any “winner” label.  Foles is as unlikely a Seahawk quarterback as can be found in this draft, and he will probably be drafted before Seattle takes a quarterback anyway.

BJ Coleman: In the comments section found here, I go into detail about why I don’t rate Coleman very highly.  Here’s the abridged version: he lacks charisma/leadership, lacks accuracy, lacks pocket presence, lacks zip, locks onto receivers, was beat out by instant NFL washout Jonathan Crompton when at Tennessee, and he failed to “wow” everyone despite playing small school competition whereas other small school guys like Chandler Harnish put up much more impressive performances.  He’s got size and some mobility, but holy cow, what a project.  The only way I could see Seattle drafting him is if they rule out all quarterbacks under 6’2″.

Ryan Lindley: It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle drafted Lindley.  He’s got good size, a strong arm, under-rated athleticism, solid footwork and impressive mechanics.  There are two major flaws in Lindley’s game that make him a tough sell as a game manager or point guard type though.  The first is his poor accuracy.  The second is the fact that he basically never checks a 2nd read.  In a lot of ways, he’s similar to Washington’s Jake Locker last year, with a lot less talent.  The Seahawks had Locker rated very low on their board last year.  Its not that I don’t think the Seahawks would pass on Lindley in the 7th round, but I think Lindley will probably come off the board in rounds 3-5, and I’m not convinced the Seahawks would rate him high enough to draft him before anyone else does.

Aaron Corp: Other than being a  former USC player recruited by Carroll himself, I don’t see a lot of reasons why Seattle would be interested in Corp.  He’s suffered a ton of lower body injuries which has turned him into a statue in the pocket.  Seattle took Mallett completely off their board because of mobility issues and I don’t see why a guy with a fraction of Mallett’s talent would be any different.  A healthy Corp ran a surprisingly good 4.72, so its not that Corp is innately non-athletic.  Can he stay healthy though?  Richmond was 3-8 with Corp as starter last season.

Chester Stewart / Stephen Garcia / Patrick Witt / Dan Persa: I can see reasons why these guys could interest Seattle, but its very likely they will go undrafted and if Seattle targets them, I don’t think it will be until undrafted free agency.

Okay, with that out of the way, I’ll cover the final three notable quarterbacks that might interest Seattle at some point in the draft (excluding division II or otherwise obscure options).

~

Jacory Harris. Size:  6’4″, 195.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  21

Outside of Luck and Griffin, there are only a three natural point guard quarterback prospects who stand roughly 6’3″ or above:  Ryan Tannehill, Darron Thomas, and Jacory Harris.  The shortest quarterback acquired by this front office to date was JP Losman who stands 6’2″, so it is legitimate to wonder how much height will impact Seattle’s choices in this draft.  If height is indeed a sticking point, Harris could be a late round option.  I suspect height won’t be an issue, but I guess we’ll see.

Harris is without a doubt the skinniest quarterback in this draft class, weighing in slightly below the shrimpy Kellen Moore despite standing five inches taller.  He’s no stranger to injury in college, though his toughness should be commended.  Despite being described as “rail thin” by media outlets and taking some brutal hits as a result of his feather like stature, Harris displayed impressive toughness, missing only 4 starts out of 51 games during his 4 year starting career.  There is of course massive potential for weight gain with Harris, he could probably gain twenty or even thirty pounds of good weight, and he would probably need to at the next level.

Statistically, Harris looked the part last season:  high completion rate, high yards per attempt, and a solid TD/INT ratio.  There was a time two years ago when some draft pundits such as Mel Kiper pontificated that Harris could be a future 2nd round pick.  Then Harris suffered through a disastrous 2010 season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns.  Even after a nice bounce back year in 2011, conventional wisdom is that Harris will not be drafted.  But in terms of raw talent and potential, he’s a lot better than most quarterbacks that fall out of the draft, which means he could be a 7th round consideration for the Seahawks.

Harris has above average mobility and despite his skinny stature he has a heck of an arm.  Harris is also pretty smart about taking some heat off of the fastball when a pass needs to arrive with touch.  I haven’t seen a ton of his play, but when I have, I’ve been impressed by his accuracy and the ease at which his receivers bring the ball in.  Harris is tough, confident, and is no stranger to making plays.  His mechanics are surprisingly solid, as is his footwork.  Harris’ young age coupled with 47 career starts is also impressive.

However, there is one major concern with Harris (beyond his weight).  He’s not a very fast decision maker and he tends to be a 1 read quarterback.  In fact, I’m very tempted to compare him to Tarvaris Jackson minus thirty pounds.  Its not very often that you see a mentally slow 4 year college starter become a quick minded pro.  That probably limits Harris’ upside to that of a quality backup.

I was tempted to include Harris in the list of unlikely draftables above, but I decided to include him as a realistic option in the event that Seattle excludes short quarterbacks and is looking to add another quarterback in the point guard mold.

Expected draft trajectory:  Very late rounds, likely UDFA.

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John Brantley. Size:  6’3″, 219.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  23

Brantley is another fringe option, but I decided to include him since I feel he is a bit like a superior version of BJ Coleman. Like Coleman, Brantley has NFL size coupled with solid athleticism and a strong arm.

Brantley caught the attention of scouts when he posted terrific numbers in relief of Tim Tebow during the 2009 season (75% completion rate, 8.54 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 0 INT).  Like Harris, Brantley had a miserable 2010 season and bounced back a bit in 2011.

Brantley physically looks the part of an NFL quarterback and is surprisingly polished in many ways.  His delivery is inconsistent- occasionally its a bit elongated- but the ball gets out quickly and he’s got a strong, accurate arm.  His footwork and pocket presence are above average.  If you are looking to roll the dice on a quarterback who could be the next Matt Hasselbeck or Tony Romo, Brantley at least gives you a shot because he has the tools and the look of an NFL quarterback.  On the downside, Brantley can sometimes lock onto receivers and he can get flustered easily.  He might need to go to an offense that uses him in a game manager role and doesn’t ask too much of him.

One obstacle that could keep Seattle from drafting Brantley are his small hands.  His hands measured 8 3/4″, the smallest hands of any quarterback measured at the scouting combine.  Its believed that John Schneider values hand size as it impacts a quarterback’s grip on the ball in poor weather situations.  It’s worth noting that Ryan Tannehill (9″) and Chandler Harnish (9 1/4″) also have small hand sizes.

Brantley’s tenure at Florida was pretty forgettable overall, and if a team drafts him, it will likely be because of his tools and not for his accomplishments.  Still, Brantley could make some sense as a potential long term backup option with starter upside.

Expected draft trajectory:  Very late rounds, possible UDFA.

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Kirk Cousins. Size:  6’3″, 214.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  23

A few months ago, Cousins would have been a solid bet to reach the mid rounds.  His profile- a moderately talented pro-style game manager with a big personality- is a bit like Ricky Stanzi, himself  a 5th round pick last year.  However, it feels unlikely that Cousins will remain on the board as long as Stanzi did.  After a good Senior Bowl showing, an impressive combine and no doubt countless impressive interviews, Cousins has vaulted his stock into likely day two contention.

Cousins is close to prototypical NFL size and is well regarded for his leadership, intelligence, accuracy and consistency.  Athletically, Cousins has looked stiff and slow in some games while in others he was surprisingly fast on tuck and runs.  Cousins is respected if not revered by everyone involved at Michigan State and despite humble beginnings at the program, he helped vault the Spartans into a perennial top 25 program.  Cousins, a senior quarterback, was a full time three year starter in a pro-style system who posted very consistent statistics season to season.  While Cousins is not an elite talent, his NFL readiness scores very highly, which will certainly interest the Seahawks as they are looking to create competition for Tarvaris Jackson.

A closer look at Cousins reveals some cracks in his armor, though.  Cousins completion rate is inflated by an offense that throws a very high percentage of passes under 10 yards.  Cousins has a decent arm, but I’ve noticed that he tends to look at his receivers instead of the defense, resulting in a lot of blind throws, interceptions and near interceptions.  For his career, Cousins has nearly as many interceptions per attempt as Tarvaris Jackson had per attempt during the Seahawks 2011 season.  That’s worrisome, particularly since Cousins is playing a much easier level of competition and throws short much more often than Jackson did.  Cousins is an intelligent guy and seems to be a quick learner, but unless Seattle could coach him into reading defenses more, I think his upside in the NFL is probably limited to that of a Trent Edwards type player.  Then again, Pete Carroll inquired into Trent Edwards not long after he came here, so maybe Cousin’s low upside isn’t much of a deterrent.

On the positive side, there is no denying that Cousins is a quarterback who tilts the field his way and gets his teammates to buy in.  Cousins is no stranger to leading heroic 4th quarter drives.  Even in the bowl game against Georgia, a game that was one of his worst last season, he completed a nearly 90 yard touchdown drive in two minutes without any timeouts to force overtime.  There is nothing mechanically wrong with Cousins and his footwork shouldn’t be an issue.  He’s essentially an average athlete, but he looks comfortable throwing on the move.  Michigan State used plenty of play action and bootleg plays.

Overall, my stance towards Cousins is lukewarm.  He’s likely to be just a backup at the next level, and as a starter I’m not convinced he’d be a better quarterback in our offense than Tarvaris Jackson.  Seattle can do a lot better than Kirk Cousins, but if all Seattle wants is an NFL ready backup, I expect Cousins will rate very highly.

Expected draft trajectory:  Rounds 2-4.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Part I, Part II, Part III

Call it a hunch, but I get the feeling Seattle’s preference in this draft is not to find a franchise QB, or even a diamond in the rough, but rather their own version of Matt Flynn.  A guy who can be a very good backup, good enough to interest other teams when he eventually becomes a free agent.  Or even a guy that could draw enough interest for teams to make a trade- the same way that Matt Schaub, Matt Cassell, and Kevin Kolb have done.

The more I think about it, the more realistic Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson appears.  I think if we are honest about it, Wilson’s only real problem are his perceived durability issues.  You look at the massive line he excelled behind at Wisconsin and wonder where his height issues went.  Truthfully, I don’t think height is a problem for Wilson, but durability is harder to discount.  Wilson weighed in at the combine at 204 pounds, and while that’s not bad for a sub 5’11” player, how is that body going to hold up when getting smashed by 350 pound lineman?  Wilson seems unlikely to hold up over a 16 game schedule year after year, yet it almost feels like Wilson is destined to be the NFL’s greatest career backup (which is more or less what Doug Flutie was).  If he only plays a few games a season, he’ll probably get by.  Most teams don’t like the idea of drafting a guy late that may not realistically have a chance to be the next Jake Delhomme or Matt Hasselbeck, but Seattle could be one of the few who are okay with such a proposition.

That’s what I think they’d like to do, anyway.  What they do in the draft will be directly impacted by the events of free agency.  What if they pull off a trade for a quarterback who could beat Jackson out as the starter?  What if they sign a free agent who could do the same?  What if nothing comes together and they walk into the 2012 draft with only two quarterbacks?   If Seattle strikes out and walks into the draft with only two signal callers, they might have to choose from a rather select group of quarterbacks who are NFL ready and could at least compete with Jackson to start right away.  If Seattle brings in a low cost veteran to compete with Jackson (Orton, Campbell, etc), that might make them comfortable enough to draft a Matt Flynn type- a savvy quarterback with physical limitations.  If Seattle gets a big name quarterback who can clearly beat out Jackson for the starting job, that frees up Seattle to do whatever they want in the draft, potentially even drafting another Josh Portis type project with some upside who can compete for the final quarterback roster spot.

In this 4th installment, I’m going to look at 3 more quarterbacks, one for each of the scenarios above.

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Brandon Weeden. Size:  6’4″, 221.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  28

It might seem a little weird putting Weeden in this group, but I look at Weeden’s age and the competition he’ll face from younger quarterbacks like Tannehill and Osweiler, and I find it hard to believe he’s going to go terribly early in the 2012 draft.  Weeden’s situation is unusual, but not unprecedented.  In fact, his story is strikingly similar to that of Chris Weinke 11 years ago.  Like Weeden, Weinke turned down college football to play baseball.  He’d make it all the way to triple-A in the Blue Jays minor league system, but gave it up to return to football.  He committed to Florida State University at the age of 25, and three years later, Weinke became the oldest Heisman trophy winner in history.  He entered the 2001 draft coming off that terrific season and was also 28 years old.

Chris Weinke would be a 4th round pick.

So while its possible that Weeden could go as early as the 2nd round, history suggests that he will be a mid rounder.  Weeden turns 30 in October of next year.  That’s going to impact how GMs value him, as it once did for Chris Weinke.

While Weeden’s age is a major drawback, it could be a drawback that plays to Seattle’s favor.  If Seattle enters next year’s draft with only two quarterbacks, they would likely seek a player with enough experience and maturity to at least make Tarvaris Jackson sweat for his job a little bit.  Its really hard to find a rookie quarterback who can do that right away, especially for a team that would prefer not to spend a high pick doing so.  You would need a very unique situation for such a thing to be possible, and Weeden presents exactly such an opportunity.  Seattle wouldn’t care as much about his age, because the Seahawks are one of a handful of NFL teams actively searching for a bridge quarterback.  Lets not forget either that Seattle was very interested in guard Danny Watkins last year, so the age of a prospect might not be as big an issue for this front office as it would be for many others.

Weeden is a former pitcher, but you wouldn’t know it based on his accuracy.  His accuracy is very inconsistent.  Even in Weeden’s victorious Fiesta Bowl performance, roughly 30% (by my count) of his passes were overthrown, underthrown, or forced his receivers to stretch out for the catch.  I find it almost unfathomable that he completed over 72% of his passes last year.  Nearly every pass Weeden threw was snapped from the shotgun, so under center ability is a question mark.  Weeden often stares down receivers, and he’s prone to make blind spot throws a few times a game where he doesn’t even notice the defender threatening his passing lane.

On a positive note, there are things to like about Weeden beyond his terrific numbers.  He has prototypical size and he just “looks the part” of an NFL quarterback physically.  Weeden’s athleticism and speed is roughly on par with Matt Barkley’s, which is probably enough for him to be adequate in our offense.  I was really impressed by Weeden’s pocket presence too.  He feels pressure so well that he doesn’t need a ton of speed to escape it.  Weeden’s accuracy might be inconsistent, but his velocity is not.  Weeden has one of the better arms in the draft, and one of my favorite things about him is the amount of zip he delivers on his 15-25 yard strikes.  His mechanics aren’t textbook, but I would consider them above average.  His release point is high enough and his windup is a little elongated but still quick.  His footwork is well spaced and fluid.  Its not hard for me to see him quickly adapting to an under center offense.  And while its true that Weeden will lock onto receivers with upsetting frequency, he’ll just as often progress through multiple reads and very quickly diagnose open receivers.  The speed at which he goes through those reads is very impressive.  What I like most of all about Weeden is how he has almost a Peyton Manning ability to get rid of the football quickly.  Its very rare that the football will still be resting in Weeden’s hands four seconds after the snap.  Of course, Weeden is playing in a spread offense, which would partially explain why he can find targets so quickly.

Still, there is a bit of a Tarvaris Jackson vibe I get when watching Weeden.  A lot of his reads feel forced, almost “wooden.”  When a receiver isn’t wide open, he seems to agonize over it.  He also throws very, very few passes away, and that would need to change at the next level.

So is Weeden actually NFL ready?  I think that depends on what you are looking for.  Weeden isn’t a project, he’s just a flawed quarterback with some talent (I feel the same about Darron Thomas).  Similar to Tim Tebow or Jake Locker, I think what you see is what you get.  Both Tim Tebow and Jake Locker had some success last year despite the fact that their college level flaws remained evident.

The biggest problem for Weeden is how he can sometimes be a bit of a robot… although there are stretches were his robot button gets switched and he suddenly looks like the Terminator.  My experience is that quarterbacks with mental limitations usually don’t grow out of them, they either succeed despite them or they don’t.  With the exception of having to learn the playbook and adapt to playing under center, I think Weeden is as NFL ready in 2012 as he’ll be in 2014.  He’s not a guy I expect to grow, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a solid, possibly even good, quarterback at the next level.

Expected draft trajectory:  Rounds 2-4.

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Kellen Moore. Size:  6’0″ (5116), 197.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  22

Finally, northwest native Kellen Moore gets his turn at the wheel.  I know some of you have been waiting eagerly for this, if only for the entertainment value.  So here we go…

In many ways, Moore is a bizarro Tim Tebow.  Physically they are nothing alike- left handedness aside.  Yet both are quarterbacks with phenomenal college careers that have flaws so severe that it turns their NFL projection into a bit of a punchline.  Josh McDaniels believed so strongly in Tebow’s intangibles that he made the Florida legend a surprise 1st round pick.  Moore won’t be drafted nearly as high, but I think its pretty likely he will be drafted somewhere based on his intangibles alone.  If Moore is a successful NFL quarterback some day, that success will be met with surprise, laughter, amusement, and even excitement, the kind of excitement that comes with a strange and inexplicable sports storyline.  Tebow-mania.  Linsanity.  The value of Tim Tebow and Jeremy Lin is not derived from their play.  Its from the narrative their emergence itself provides.  Tim Tebow was never supposed to be an NFL quarterback.  Jeremy Lin should be using his Harvard degree to trade stocks somewhere, not vault the horrid Knicks into playoff contention.  Moore might not be a successful NFL quarterback, but I don’t think he’ll have a boring NFL career.

And while Moore doesn’t come close to fitting the classic description of a point guard quarterback, he might interest Seattle if they are indeed looking for a Matt Flynn type or if they are looking to draft two quarterbacks instead of just one (something Schneider recently hinted at).  Like Matt Flynn, Moore doesn’t have a cannon arm nor does he have even average athleticism.  However, in a recent John Schneider radio appearance (more on that later), he revealed that the top attribute he looks for in a quarterback is leadership, a guy “who tilts the field his way.”  Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in the draft in this department.  He’s a guy who wasn’t supposed to amount to anything yet broke records and went 50-3 as a starter.  As you might have heard, that’s the most wins in college football history.  He also showed up to the combine and worked his ass off, even stepping in for throwing drills when many superior quarterbacks refused to.  Its said that Moore was surprisingly impressive in those drills too.

If nothing else, that left a positive and memorable impression for all the evaluators in attendance.  John Schneider once said that he never forgot watching Charlie Whitehurst throw passes in the wind and rain many years ago.  He still remembered that moment five years later when he traded for the Chargers’ quarterback.  Sometimes little impressions can go a long way in the mind of a general manager.  That could make Moore a surprise candidate for Seattle in the very late rounds if he’s still around, despite his lack of fit for the scheme.  Matt Flynn didn’t exactly fit Green Bay’s physical preferences either, but they saw something in the guy and gave him a chance to compete.

As far as what I think about Moore, I like the guy, but let me get some caveats out of the way.  First, obviously, his size.  He’s just under 6 feet tall and can’t even break 200 pounds.  He has skinny legs and arms- he looks like he’d snap if Ndamukong Suh so much as looked at him.  In terms of stature, he reminds me of Colt McCoy- not a guy you would mistake for a prototypical quarterback at first glance.  I don’t think height will be as big a concern as many think (I’ll cover that in the positives), but whenever a quarterback is that short, there is always a very strong chance he could be the next Max Hall who throws terrible picks in the NFL because he can’t see anything.  Like Weeden, Moore played in a spread offense and when I watched his game footage from Georgia, he took only one snap from under center.  Moore has below average raw athleticism, and his deep throws lack distance and zip.  He has a bit of a clunky delivery (although its fast enough) and his footwork could use some work too.  He makes a lot of ugly/awkward off balance throws (though to his credit, they remain accurate).  Finally, it should be noted that Moore played on a team with national champion level talent in a non-BCS conference.  Boise state has a great coaching staff, a defense that occasionally boasts NFL talent, a great offensive line, some good receivers and one of the nation’s better running backs in Doug Martin.  So like Flynn, Moore benefited tremendously from the environment he played in.

Wow, that was a wall of text wasn’t it?  Kellen Moore’s issues when projecting to the NFL are numerous and significant.  And yet, I think there is a tiny bit of truth to the Tom Brady comps some fans give Moore.  Brady is 6’4″, 225.  Obviously, Moore will never physically be Brady’s equal, but the similarities are there.  First, like Brady coming out of Michigan, Moore has a ton of potential to add weight.  Whereas Russell Wilson looks pretty maxed out at 204 pounds, Moore is an almost embarrassingly skinny looking 197, and its certainly within Moore’s potential to bulk up an extra 10-15 pounds.  If he could reach the 210-215 range, he’d still be a worse than average injury threat, but at least he’d be reasonably close to the 220 pound minimum many teams prefer.  Moore doesn’t run the ball much and is smart about avoiding contact, so 210 pounds might be enough to make him a viable 16 game starter health wise.  I’d say in no uncertain terms that Moore must add weight, and its legitimate to wonder if that could impact his mobility even further.

Earlier I compared Moore to McCoy in terms of physical appearance.  That said, I don’t believe that Moore has a Colt McCoy career in store for him.  Moore is a far superior quarterback- its not even close.  Moore has outstanding decision making and almost never has an off game.  McCoy had good intangibles but was incredibly erratic.  Moore is better across the board in many ways that I will address shortly.  I would only compare the two in terms of physical limitations.

There is a lot to like about Moore.  Moore gets rid of the ball with incredible speed.  In the Georgia game, I don’t know if he held the ball in his hand for 3 seconds even one time.  He doesn’t lock onto receivers and he progresses through reads with a high degree of comfort.  In a few cases he checked his 2nd read and delivered the ball a few tenths of a second later- that’s some astonishingly fast recognition time.  Dare I say elite. While its true that Moore was sacked very little and played behind a great offensive line against inferior competition, I think the true reason for the sack total is Moore’s ability to get rid of the football with such consistent quickness.  Its awfully hard to sack a quarterback when the ball is consistently gone two seconds after the snap.

Moore’s ability to make pre-snap reads and adjust on the fly are both very impressive.  Moore’s intelligence is extremely high.  Watch this video where he breaks down X’s and O’s and try not to be impressed.   He doesn’t sound anything at all like a college quarterback.  Pay close attention to how he talks about defensive positions and how he specifically diagnoses how big a threat each defender is to intercept his pass.  He has a mental system that is designed to very quickly diagnose “yes” or “no” on a read, and if its not there, he moves to the next option very quickly.  This explains a great deal about why Moore’s reads are so fluid and quick.  John Schneider himself recently said that Moore’s intelligence and instincts “are off the charts.”  I would tend to agree.

Moore doesn’t have a ton of athleticism, but he still runs an effective bootleg.  He generally has good pocket presence and is surprisingly agile and elusive.  He’s not going to run the ball, but you don’t have to run the ball as a Quarterback to accomplish what Seattle wants on offense.  Overall his mobility was pretty close to average, which surprised me.

Moore has a “floaty” deep ball and offensive coordinator Brent Pease wisely minimized deep routes in his game plans.  Yet for having such a weak arm, Moore’s short and intermediate passes pack a ton of zip.  Overall, his arm is highly comparable to that of Matt Hasselbeck.  It could be interesting to see how Pete Carroll would scheme Moore into his offense since it strongly emphasizes a vertical passing game.  I think Carroll could make it work, since after all, he turned a noodle armed Hasselbeck into a surprisingly potent deep threat quarterback in 2010 with Jeremy Bates.  While its true that Moore’s deep ball is a strike against him coming here, there is something to be said for just how deadly Moore can be with mid range throws.  Seattle’s offense throws a lot of passes 15-25 yards downfield, and Moore is one of the more deadly mid range quarterbacks in this draft due to the strength of his reads and the zip on his intermediate passes.

As far as Moore’s height, will it really be an issue?  Like Russell Wilson, Moore played behind a pretty big offensive line in college and didn’t suffer from a barrage of tipped passes.  Not once did I see a play where Moore struggled to see his receivers or the defenders covering them.  Moore isn’t going to win gold medals on the track, but he does have some short area quickness which helps him maneuver to find throwing windows very quickly.

Bottom line, does Moore fit the point guard role Seattle is seeking?  Yes, sort of.  He won’t often run beyond the line of scrimmage, but he’s mobile enough to escape pressure and can extend plays.  I think Moore falls into a very similar category as Russell Wilson, a guy with incredibly strong intangibles and the kind of skills Seattle is looking for at quarterback.  Moore will never be a prototypical franchise quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be successful if he goes to the right team- a team that can adjust to suit his strengths and weaknesses.  Overall I came away from my evaluation surprisingly believing of Moore.  His determination is palpable and while his obstacles are perhaps insurmountable, his talent is the real thing.  I’d be pretty excited if Seattle drafted him, if only because he is such a wildcard.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid to Late round pick.

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Zach Collaros. Size:  6’1″ , 218.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  23

Zach Collaros represents an example of a quarterback Seattle might target in a best case scenario.  Yesterday Rob provided some new information about the trade Seattle has on the table, which means it is possible that Seattle could acquire a big name quarterback depending on where Peyton Manning signs.  If Seattle trades for an established quarterback like (hypothetically speaking) Tony Romo, that would allow them to draft a Josh Portis-type project with nice upside, should they so desire.

Collaros is worth mentioning because he’s got a decent chance to go undrafted and has many similarities to Chandler Harnish.  Both have similar size and athleticism.  Neither one is a stranger to ripping off 50+ yard touchdown runs at any given moment.  Both are classic point guard quarterback types who flash strong intangibles and the ability to progress through reads and distribute the football.  I think Collaros holds onto his first read a little too long at times, but overall I’ve been impressed with him when I’ve seen him.  He has a Josh Freeman type ability to dodge pass rushers and get off desperate looking last second throws that are often completed for big plays.

Callaros is a gutty player who has the respect of his coaches and teammates.  Cincinatti posted a 10-3 record and won the Big East thanks in large part to Collaros’ leadership and playmaking ability.  Collaros did struggle a bit with interceptions.  After avoiding a pick through his first three games, he went on to toss 10 picks over his last 7 starts.

I think Harnish is the better quarterback, but Collaros could be an appealing option at the end of the draft depending on how the previous rounds go.

Expected draft trajectory:  Late round pick / UDFA.

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For those who haven’t heard it yet, Seahawks GM John Schneider had a recent radio interview with Brock and Salk (skip to about the 15 minute mark).  Lots of good stuff in there, I’d highly recommend giving it a listen.  Here were a few of my highlights:

#1)  While describing what he looks for in a quarterback, John Schneider threw a couple quarterback names out there- probably just the first two that came to his mind.  Those quarterbacks?  Chandler Harnish and Austin Davis.

#2)  He listed leadership, mobility, elusiveness, and keeping eyes down the field as major attributes he looks for in a quarterback.

#3)  He had a rather cryptic anecdote about Reggie White, saying that “the time was right” to make a major signing like White (the Packers were already contenders with Favre and White put them over the edge). He then had a reverse example talking about a time when they signed a 32 year old defensive end before the team was ready for that kind of move and how it set the team back. Those stories strongly suggest that Seattle is leaning against a major free agent addition this offseason, as the Seahawks are clearly not in their championship window just yet.  His comments could also hint against free agents over the age of 30.  I don’t think John Schneider was being terribly nuanced here, and it makes me pretty skeptical that Mario Williams will be a Seahawk next season.

#4)  Last of all, Schneider suggested the intriguing possibility of drafting two quarterbacks this year… sounded 100% serious too.  This is a deep quarterback class in the mid to late rounds.  Drafting two quarterbacks in a year like this makes an awful lot of sense.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Back in the early to mid 90s, I was a young, displaced Seahawks fan growing up in Arizona.  I’d be lucky to see three Seahawks games in any given season, especially since the Seahawks were consistently lousy back then.  While my access to the Seahawks was limited, my access to the NFL draft was no less restricted than anywhere else.  Because of that, the draft took on a pretty big level of importance in my sports-fan life from a young age.

Of course, this being the early to mid 90s, the internet wasn’t really around yet, especially in the small, isolated town I grew up in.  I didn’t watch a ton of college football, either.  Despite the fact that I enjoyed the draft so much, I’d go into it every year a completely blank slate.  As a result, I pretty much hung on every word megastar draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said, and “Mel Kiper’s best available” turned every pick into a developing news story. Being uninformed only deepened my desire to see Mel Kiper’s hyped players slide to Seattle’s picks in each round.  Kiper brought a lot of positive energy with his analysis and it was easy to buy into the hype he was selling.  His coverage made it feel like every pick impacted the Seahawks, even picks by other teams.  It was especially excruciating when Kiper’s best available fit Seattle’s biggest needs.  I was entranced and unquestioning.

Don’t get me wrong, I like and admire Mel Kiper, and I hope that some day he’s in the NFL Hall of Fame as an analyst.  His big hair and bigger personality helped make the NFL draft a national spectacle.  Given how miserable the Seahawks were for the first decade of my fandom, I may not be a Seahawk fan today without all those fun NFL draft seasons he covered.  But that said, by relying so much on Kiper’s lists, I fell into a trap, like millions of other fans.  I’d see a player on Kiper’s best available list twenty picks away from Seattle’s next selection, and root for him to slide.  I’d become completely focused on that one guy, celebrating each pick that he wasn’t selected.  I’d celebrate like crazy if Seattle actually got the player (which almost never happened), and be royally pissed off if that player reached Seattle’s pick and they passed on him (which happened a lot).  It was as if the other 500-1000 draftable players didn’t even matter.  They weren’t on Kiper’s list, so they must be nobodies.  “That” guy on Kiper’s list, the one that’s been his BPA for 20 picks now, he’s almost to us!  Cross your fingers!

I didn’t realize it then, but I know now that building a Superbowl team is about more than drafting Mel Kiper’s top players.  I’m sure most of you have long realized that as well.  But it wasn’t until last night that I realized the reason why this is true.

It occurred to me while I was stumbling through Dan Kadar’s draft site:  Mocking the Draft.  I was reading this six round mock draft someone had posted a couple days back.  I had some time to kill and I was bored, so I looked at each Seahawks pick in this mock draft and replaced his picks with players I would have considered for the Seahawks (my personal choices, as well as my best guesses for the FO’s, are at the bottom of their comments section, if anyone is curious).

While doing the exercise I had a bit of an epiphany moment.  Among players Rob and I have highlighted here at Seahawks Draft Blog, only Quinton Coples had left the board before our first pick (Seattle was picking 12th).  Doug Martin and Ryan Tannehill were there in the 2nd.  Derek Wolfe, Sean Spence, and Chris Polk where there in the 3rd.  Kirk Cousins and Brock Osweiler very nearly reached our 4th round pick.  I went into this exercise with a very large list of players, and as a result, there were consistently multiple good options at every pick.

I’m just an ordinary fan with limited knowledge and resources.  My bright ideas dry up around the 4th or 5th round.  Imagine viewing the draft from the front office’s point of view.  Not only is their base of knowledge of prospects several times larger than our own, they also have inside knowledge into the Pac-12 thanks to Pete Carroll.  That inside knowledge allowed Seattle to get a franchise corner with a 5th round pick last year and a budding star receiver in undrafted free agency.  At every pick through the first four rounds, I actually struggled to choose just one player.  For this front office, they must feel that way too, but where my options die off around the 5th round, they probably have an abundance of options all the way to the end, and even into undrafted free agency.  Suddenly it makes a lot of sense why there was so much urgency in John Schneider’s voice regarding undrafted free agency last year.

Rob has written a couple of articles now highlighting John Schneider’s philosophy of “not panicking” for a quarterback. Today I realized that this isn’t the whole story.  John Schneider doesn’t just fail to panic for quarterbacks.  He fails to panic for every other position too.

In Schneider’s first two years, not once has Seattle traded up for a player.  Trading up has been rare for Schneider’s mentor in Green Bay as well.  This isn’t to say that trading up is stupid.  Seattle’s draft history is full of trade ups that produced excellent results (off the top of my head: Walter Jones, Lofa Tatupu, John Carlson, Max Unger).  However, by having such a broad list of options, trading up becomes a luxury instead of a necessity, since you almost never find yourself having to get “that” guy.  If that player you covet doesn’t reach your pick, there are still many other great options to consider.  Moving up to ensure getting a great player is fine, but doing so comes with a cost.  By taking a broad brush approach, the Seahawks have gotten comparable talent without having to pay anything extra.

And to me, that highlights the real reason why the Seahawks fell apart under Tim Ruskell’s drafting and have thrived under John Schneider.  Schneider is one of, if not the hardest working GMs in the NFL.  If there is talent to be found, he will find it.  BCS schools, non-BCS schools, FCS schools, Division II schools… CFL… out of football for a couple years… he doesn’t care.  Eagle scout, model citizen, leader, loner, donut thief, toker, stealing credit cards, walking out on bar tabs… he doesn’t care.  The only thing he cares about is if you have talent and if you have a place on this team to play.

Contrast that with Tim Ruskell, who screened out character concern players, non-BCS college players, and preferred four year starters.  Tim Ruskell believed that his process would work because it would remove players who were bad bets, but he didn’t seem to appreciate the value in having a large pool of players to choose from.  More than anything else, that is why the Seahawks talent grew thinner and thinner with each successive year during his regime, while the opposite is occurring for John Schneider.  Just look at the draft record of both regimes from the 4th round on.  In just two years, John Schneider already has more mid-to-late round success stories than Tim Ruskell had in five years.  In other words, the more options you have, the more talent you’ll ultimately end up with.  Especially later on when the pickings are slim.

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Seattle will not likely draft a quarterback early in 2012.  I know plenty of reasonable people who freak out at this concept.  After all, Seattle really should have drafted their quarterback 3-5 years ago, so waiting yet another year feels inexcusable. However, I’m no longer terribly worried about it.  I’ll tell you why.

It may have quietly passed by everyone else, but in Claire Farnsworth’s interview that Rob linked yesterday, there was one quote by John Schneider that shot off the page.  I found it incredibly revealing:

“[Not making a big move for a QB] may disappoint fans, because they want to see an instant guy and have that instant success,” Schneider said. “But really, you’re better off continuing to build your team. Initially when I got here, I thought we were going to plug the quarterback in and we were going built around him.“

You catch that?  When John Schneider first came to Seattle two years ago, his initial intention was to grab a quarterback right away.  It was around this time two years ago that Pete Carroll gushed about Sam Bradford, much in the same way that he (allegedly) gushed about Courtney Upshaw in a random pickup basketball game.  Not long after that, it became clear that the Rams had locked in on drafting Bradford, and Seattle never had a chance.  Seattle’s best QB options in that draft were Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow.  The Seahawks passed, and were wise to do so.

Andy Dalton was very successful by rookie standards.  But even if he goes on to have a great career- and he probably won’t- that won’t change the fact that drafting Dalton at #25 last year would have been a dangerous and ill-informed decision.  Colin Kaepernick was the only other serious option at that point, and he would have been a reach pick and a long term project quarterback.  Seattle would ultimately get Josh Portis in undrafted free agency, and for the long term project quarterback role, Seattle is not much worse off despite spending their 1st elsewhere.

Its now clear to me that Schneider’s decision to avoid the quarterback position in 2010 and 2011 had nothing to do with the team not being ready, nor was it because he thought quarterback was unimportant.  It was because any quarterback he could have realistically drafted in those drafts would have been a mistake pick.  Drafting Clausen, Tebow, Kaepernick, or Dalton… drafting any of them would have been like a repeat of the Whitehurst trade, except we’d be giving up a 1st rounder instead.  Does anyone really think that’s a good idea?  Personally, I respect the fact that John Schneider isn’t willing to do something stupid just for appearance’s sake.

Rob and I have made one thing pretty clear while covering the draft over the last several months: this was going to be a three quarterback draft.  Then Matt Barkley went back to USC.  Luck remained a #1 overall lock and is going to a team that won’t trade the pick.  Its looking likely that Robert Griffin will be traded at #2 overall, and the selling team hates the Seahawks more than any other team in the sport.  In other words, getting the kind of quarterback we all want this year is all but impossible.  The best quarterback we can draft at #11/#12 this year (Tannehill) is an awful lot like the best quarterback we could draft last year at #25 (Kaepernick).

If you want to blame something, don’t blame this front office.  Blame people like us for helping to overhype the crap out of Robert Griffin.  I know.  It sucks.  It’s like we’re at the final table in a Texas Hold’em Tournament, and we’re a winning hand from the championship, but the dealer just keeps giving us one crummy hand after another.  That doesn’t mean you should go all in when the dealer keeps giving you two-seven off suit over and over.

John Schneider has taken a “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade” approach to these situations.  He used the lack of quarterback opportunity in 2010 and 2011 to focus instead on the offensive line and secondary.  I’d say that’s worked out pretty well.  This year, he’s going to spend his energy on the pass rush and running game.  He’s not avoiding the elephant in the room.  He knows perfectly well how badly this team needs a quarterback of the future.  The only thing he’s waiting for is a wide open shot.

Just remember that John Schneider is a master of keeping his options open.  From that philosophy we’ve already seen so many good things happen to this team.  When Seattle had won five out of six games and looked like one of the more physically dominant teams in football last year, did anyone really care that they passed on Kaepernick?  Even Andy Dalton, in a performance that I don’t think he’ll sustain, had a QB rating only two points higher than T-Jack’s last year.

With the inclusive system of talent evaluation John Schneider uses, the Seahawks will always come out draft winners, even when it feels like the universe is conspiring to keep franchise quarterback’s out of this city.  Eventually, John Schneider will get his guy at quarterback.  And in the meantime, he’s going to do the best he can with the hand he’s dealt.  He’s not going to get tunnel vision the way that I did as a young fan watching Mel Kiper, or the way Tim Ruskell did when his short list of screened out players reached a trickle.  And maybe its just me, but I’m thankful for that.  Even if the journey itself is a little frustrating at times.  We all know where this franchise is going and its a very good place.  And the reason we are heading in that direction is precisely because John Schneider has shown patience and inclusive thinking in his process.  I think we’d all be a little smarter (and a bit more sane) if we all did the same.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Part I, Part II

Something I’ve noticed in doing this series is that you have two types of late round quarterbacks.  You have underdeveloped and unconventional players with great size and tools, and then you have more polished players who are undersized.  Josh Portis is the closest thing to an undersized quarterback this regime has grabbed so far, and he’s 6’3″ (6027) and 210 lbs, which is still bigger than a lot of the late round options this year.  The Seahawks spoke with Russell Wilson at the Senior Bowl.  I don’t want to make too much of that, but then again, Pete Carroll and John Schneider are not exactly known for misdirection.  If the team has some legitimate interest in a guy who’s 5’10”, you can probably assume the team has no ironclad rules about size with a late round quarterback pick.  I hope that’s the case, because I’m finding that the best looking late round quarterbacks this year are consistently undersized.

Ultimately, the actions taken by the Seahawks before the draft could have a big influence on the quarterback they pull the trigger on.  Pete Carroll has stated openly that he wants competition for the starting quarterback job in 2012.  The best way to do that is to add a veteran roughly of the same caliber as Tarvaris Jackson.  There are a few free agents out there who could fit the bill, and both Rob and I have dangled the idea that Palmer or Sanchez could make some sense to fill this role and either one could conceivably be moved for a reasonable price.  However, if Seattle enters the 2012 draft without having added a quarterback to create competition, that is probably going to affect their quarterback focus.  You wouldn’t draft a guy like Dominique Davis and expect him to compete as a starter right away.  If Seattle wanted a real competition, they’d need to draft a guy like Cousins or perhaps Weeden to make that concept plausible.  Conversely, adding a veteran quarterback before the draft could free up Seattle to draft more of a project later on, someone who would compete with Josh Portis for the 3rd quarterback roster spot.

With that in mind, here are three more quarterbacks who could make some late round sense for the Seattle Seahawks:

Darron Thomas, Oregon. Size:  6’3″, 215.  Class:  Jr.  Age:  21

To me- without question- the most underrated quarterback in the 2012 draft is Darron Thomas.  His size, statistics, athleticism, and natural talent level are all fairly close to that of Ryan Tannehill, and Thomas is actually the more experienced of the two despite only being a junior.  Ryan Tannehill is getting “top 15 pick” hype among many scouts and NFL columnists.  And yet its a highly common opinion that Darron Thomas is never going to be an NFL quarterback, and that he may even go undrafted.  I’m not an Oregon Ducks fan, but as someone that lives near Portland and has watched many of Thomas’ games, I find those ideas completely at odds with one another.  Unlike Rob, I actually like Ryan Tannehill, but it appears that many people have chosen to focus exclusively on Tannehill’s upside, while refusing to apply that same sense of imagination with Thomas.  Brock Osweiler is seeing his stock rise too, despite being outplayed by Thomas in the same conference.

Even some Oregon fans aren’t believers in Darron Thomas.  A common assertion is that Thomas left because he wouldn’t have kept his starting job over backup Bryan Bennett.  Bennett is a 185 pound quarterback who many Oregon fans hope can be their version of Washington’s Keith Price.  Price also finished last season at 185 pounds (according to a January interview) and outshined RG3 in the Alamo Bowl with a phenomenal performance.  I say this without any intention of disrespect to Bennett, who I think will be a pretty good quarterback next year, but I personally think the notion of Bennett beating out a senior Darron Thomas would be unlikely.  Thomas is already one of the most efficient quarterbacks in Oregon history, and would have been entering his senior season with a chance to take the next step in his development as a senior.  JTLight, the head writer for SBNation’s Oregon Ducks fansite Addicted to Quack seems to agree with me.  When the topic arose of Thomas leaving because his job was already gone to Bennett, JTLight’s response was this:  “Do people seriously believe that?”

All of this seems especially ironic, given the incredible RG3 love-fest that has taken a life of its own this draft season.  A year ago, Robert Griffin was still an athlete playing quarterback who was efficient, but wasn’t a winner and didn’t have the kind of polish and skills you look for in a franchise player.  His college passer ratings before 2011?  142.  143.  144.  Pretty good, but not elite.  You know what Thomas’ ratings look like the last two years?  151.  159.  Thomas and RG3 are identical in terms of size and while Thomas isn’t the freak athlete Griffin is, he’s solidly above average.  I actually prefer Thomas’ mechanics and footwork to Griffin’s, although I’d give RG3 an edge in intelligence and accuracy.   A couple months back, I was actually planning to highlight Thomas as a guy who could be next year’s RG3 before he made the surprising choice to turn pro.

Some like to compare Thomas to one of his Oregon predecessors, Dennis Dixon.  One difference though is that Dixon returned to Oregon for his senior season, in which he experienced a big leap forward.  His passer rating that year jumped from 121 to 161.  Even still, that big senior leap put Dixon only two rating points above Darron Thomas’ junior year number.

Of course, evaluating a quarterback for the NFL is never as simple as looking at statistics. And yes, I can understand why a majority of people look at Darron Thomas and instantly dismiss him.  The NFL is a league dominated by franchise quarterbacks.  Every team and every fan is looking for the next guy who’s 6’5″ 230 lbs, throws the ball a mile and with perfect mechanical efficiency.  A guy with elite accuracy and elite decision making.  A guy who’s biggest question mark is how goofy he’s going to look in advertisements over the next ten years from all the mega endorsement deals he’ll be getting.  To many of us, its not a question of “can he be good enough?” nor a question of “could the team make it work?”  For many, it simply boils down to one thing: he’s either good enough or he isn’t.

And certainly when judged by that latter standard, Thomas falls far short of the surefire franchise quarterback label.  I have nothing against that kind of thinking- who doesn’t want a surefire franchise quarterback?  I’m sure this front office has nothing against drafting a perfect prospect either.  No sane person would be against it.  But let’s remember Pete Carroll’s own words regarding quarterbacks in the draft this year.  He mentioned that John Schneider identified some players that could be had later, and that they’d be “good enough.”

Great general managers identify and exploit market inefficiencies to their benefit, even though doing so often means violating conventional wisdom and bringing about ridicule.  Some people laughed at the Seahawks for signing NFL dropout and CFL star Brandon Browner.  Many people didn’t even seriously expect Browner to make the final 53 man roster that year.  How’d that turn out?  The NFL is every bit as applicable to the concepts put forward in Moneyball as Major League Baseball is.  There are players out there who’s actual value is far better than their reputations.  Raheem Brock and Chris Clemons were essentially castoffs before 2010, and yet they combined for 20 sacks that year.  Browner, Clemons, and Brock probably wouldn’t have produced like that for just any team, because Seattle identified useful attributes in each one and created a role for them that helped mask their weaknesses.

Darron Thomas is not a student of the game who will be an offensive coordinator on the field.  But neither is RG3 and neither was Cam Newton.  Thomas is often criticized for his accuracy, but he still posted good completion rates.  Thomas will suffer if his receivers in the NFL have alligator arms, because he does force his targets to catch a lot of passes outside of the body area.  Thankfully the Seahawks have built up a pretty deep group of quality receivers and tight ends so this could be less of an issue.  Thomas doesn’t throw as well on the move as Ryan Tannehill, but I think he does better than Tannehill throwing from the pocket.  Thomas has a pretty good arm and his mobility is solidly above average.  He took a decent number of snaps from under center (for a non-pro style) and his dropback is more fluid than not.  His physical measurables are on the lower end of the NFL franchise quarterback spectrum, and better than pretty much every other late round 2012 point guard quarterback prospect.

My biggest worry about Thomas is that he doesn’t have a lot of consistency game to game, and while I haven’t figured out a cause yet, my hypothesis is that Thomas struggles when defenses put him under a lot of pressure.  He’s not as deliberate as T-jack, but its fair to say that Thomas is a guy who likes to take his time setting up a play.  Comfort matters to Thomas, and many defenses over the last two years found ways to put Thomas off his game.

I guess what separates my opinion of Thomas from many others is that I don’t view Thomas as a huge project.  Thomas is many things, but he’s not a wooden quarterback like Tarvaris Jackson that is prone to a brainfart every 5th play.  Thomas is a natural quarterback who can progress through multiple reads, calmly make smart decisions and avoid mistakes without much if any signs of mental awkwardness.  I think its impressive that Thomas does not at all shy away from tight throws, and yet he only threw 7 picks in 339 attempts last year.  I don’t think that Thomas could compete with T-Jack as a rookie.  But at the same time, I don’t see a guy that needs to fix a laundry list of problems before he could work in Pete Carroll’s style of offense.

If Seattle adds a veteran before the draft, Thomas is a nice gamble in the mid to late rounds.  He’s got NFL sized measurables with an underrated amount of natural ability, and he’s a great fit for the role the Seahawks are seeking on offense.  While the rest of the NFL is coming around to the idea that Newton and RG3 as the new breed of NFL quarterbacks, the Seahawks can take it one step further, and identify the next Newton/RG3 the year before he explodes onto the scene.  I’d love to see the Seahawks take that approach, and I think they just might.  It would hardly be the first time this front office has bravely charted an unconventional course and come out winners.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid to Late round pick.

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GJ Kinne, Tulsa. 6’1″, 235.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  23

Fieldgulls did a recent draft podcast series with Davis Hsu and Derek Stevens.  Stevens has apparently been in contact with Rob Rang and been shown the ropes on how to scout, and it shows in his analysis.  I highly recommend listening to his podcast on quarterback options.  One quarterback he especially gushed about was GJ Kinne.  Finding any kind of decent footage on Kinne is difficult, which is strange since he plays in the same conference as Austin Davis,  Dominique Davis, and Case Keenum.  I searched for hours and found minutes of footage.  I’ve hardly seen enough to form an endorsement, but I also saw enough to understand Stevens excitement about Kinne.

2012 is the year of the short quarterback, and Kinne continues that trend.  I’ve seen some measurements that have him at 6005, or six foot and one half inch tall.  Despite his lack of height, Kinne weighs in at a rather amazing weight of 235 lbs, tying him with Andrew Luck and BJ Coleman as the third heaviest quarterback in the draft.  Its all good weight too, and it doesn’t seem to interfere at all with Kinne’s athleticism. His arm puts good velocity on the ball, and his general composure on the field looks compatible with a point guard quarterback role.

Kinne doesn’t have the highest release, which is pretty worrisome given how short he is.  But then again, I’m basing that off of just a few throws.

Like Russell Wilson, Dominique Davis, and BJ Coleman, Kinne is a player who transferred schools.  He was initially a quarterback with Texas before transferring to Tulsa in 2008.

Expected draft trajectory:  Late round pick / UDFA.

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Bo Levi Mitchell, EWU. Size:  6’1″, 210.  Class:  Sr.  Age:  22

Bo Levi Mitchell played for Eastern Washington the last two seasons after transferring from Southern Methodist (SMU).  Eastern Washington is part of a lower tier of college football, known as the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).  You can kind of think of it as being the tier between Division II and a non-BCS conference like  Conference USA or the WAC.  Anyway, in 2010, Mitchell’s very first season at Eastern Washington, he led the Eagles to a FCS national championship.  In 2011, he threw for over 4000 yards and led the FCS in four different passing categories, ultimately earning the Walter Payton award by seasons end, which is the FCS equivalent of a league MVP award.  Notable Walter Payton Award winners include Jon Friesz, Doug Nussmeier, Steve McNair, Brian Westbrook, and Tony Romo.

I had a chance to watch Mitchell when his EWU Eagles rolled into Husky stadium last September.  I was actually looking forward to scouting Keith Price in that game, but it was Mitchell who I came away impressed with.  Mitchell displayed extremely impressive pocket presence and pocket mobility while keeping his eyes downfield.  His accuracy overall was very impressive, particularly on one incredible deep touchdown pass he threw late in the game.  His size, pocket savvy, quickness, and good mechanics reminded me of Drew Brees. You can see some of those throws in a highlights video from that game.

Overall, his 473 yard, 3 touchdown performance was very impressive and if not for a great play by Washington DB Desmond Trufant with seconds remaining, Mitchell may have completed a huge upset that afternoon.  I haven’t seen anything from Mitchell since then, but I could tell at that moment that he was in for a special year and I was hardly surprised to find that he finished with huge statistics.   If the Seahawks acquired Mitchell with a late round pick, I’d be pretty excited about it.  He’s a got some talent, and he took two big steps forward in 2010 and 2011.

Expected draft trajectory:  late round pick / UDFA.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Every now and then, Rob and I are privy to some insider Seahawks information from a proven and reliable source.  In the case of the Carson Palmer trade which Rob reported last year, he decided to go public with that information after confirming it with two NFL sources- but its worth noting that neither of those sources was our usual guy, and when Rob asked him about it, he never confirmed or denied what we had been hearing about talks between Cincy and Seattle last year.  I personally think there really was something there with Palmer, but because then first-place Oakland got desperate and overpaid after Campbell went down last year, we’ll never really know how accurate the information really was.  I bring this up because I want to defend the credibility of our source, who had nothing to do with that report- even if it ends up being true.  Pretty much every piece of information the source has given us has more or less been proven later.

This source has recently been in contact with Rob, who in turn has relayed some information to me.  Obviously, Rob and I are Seahawks fans first and we understand the importance of information warfare this time of year.  A lot of the stuff we have been told could do real damage to Seattle’s offseason plan if we carelessly leaked it.  But that said, we do have some insider knowledge.  Let me say right now that a Mark Sanchez trade is NOT a part of that.  We have no confirmation or denial that a Sanchez deal is in the works to Seattle, based on what we’ve heard.  However, Rob and I both feel that it is a significant possibility regardless, and worth discussing on the blog since obviously it would impact both Seattle’s search for a quarterback and the draft picks they’d have at their disposal in April.  Again, this is all speculative.  This is not a scoop.

Anyway, the last couple months have been pretty interesting for the Jets, to say the least.  They lost their last 3 games of the season to finish 8-8 after entering the season with high expectations.  Rex Ryan stripped his team captains of their leadership titles.  The Jets’ locker room became a poisonous caldron that could scarcely contain itself.  Jets receiver Plaxico Burress took what could be considered a passive aggressive swipe at his quarterback at an autograph session.  Reports of a feud between Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez were laid bare by LaDainian Tomlinson on a recent television appearance, though in fairness to Sanchez, many other sources have painted Holmes as a bit of a headcase in 2011.  I won’t repost the entire Tomlinson article above but here are some parts of it that I found revealing:

The Sanchez-Holmes rift was “as bad as I’ve ever been around,” LaDainian Tomlinson revealed in a television interview.  Tomlinson, the latest player to characterize the dissension-torn locker room as The Florham Park Zoo, said he’s not sure if Sanchez and Holmes can co-exist. The future Hall of Famer claimed the locker-room problems “got out of hand” toward the end of the season, adding that coach Rex Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum fueled the mentality because they like players that speak their mind.

“You know, it was at the point where I think the players could no longer do anything about it. There was nothing that the players could do. So when it gets to that point, there are certain changes that need to happen. Can it be fixed? I think absolutely it can be. But they’re going to have to make some tough decisions.”  If he were the GM, Tomlinson said it would be a “tough one,” the decision on whether to keep Sanchez and Holmes together.

Tomlinson, reiterating what he said last Sunday on ESPN’s NFL Countdown, refuted a claim by one unnamed player telling the New York Daily News that Sanchez is “lazy.” But he did say the Jets need a backup to push him.

“I would say a bit pampered because he has no competition,” Tomlinson said. “He has no real threat to say, ‘This guy may take my job.'”

Tomlinson said Sanchez can overcome the turmoil, but “he just has to have pieces around him to help him get it done.”

The New York Daily News interviewed several Jets players and a “Jets source” last month, and some of the findings were rather shocking.  The “Jets source” did not seem negative towards Sanchez, but also made it clear that he would happily ditch Sanchez in a New York minute for Peyton Manning, even saying it was a “no-brainer” and that it would be “stupid” for the team to avoid trying for Manning.  Among players interviewed, the tone was almost universally negative towards Sanchez.  Not everything the players said is on the level- for example one player accused Sanchez of being “lazy” which has been widely disputed elsewhere.  It doesn’t take much time to read the expose, but in case you decide to skip it, there is one part that really jumps out to me:

Some in the organization told The News that many of Sanchez’s teammates have grown resentful [of Sanchez] for myriad reasons.

“They see the organization babying him,” said a Jets source. “They see him with a sense of entitlement. He’s been given all this and hasn’t done anything. They call him ‘San-chise.’ They make him the face of the organization. They gave him the captain tag. He’s not a captain. He should have never been a captain.”

None of the players who spoke to the Daily News for this story agreed with Ryan’s decision to anoint Sanchez as a captain.

It should be clear at this point that the Jets badly want to win the Manning sweepstakes and have both Manning brothers in New York.  Most league observers consider this unlikely.  However, given how incredibly damaged Mark Sanchez has become among Jets fans and players in his own locker room, it seems very plausible that Sanchez’s days in New York could be numbered regardless.  From perusing a few Jets fan sites, I get the impression that Jets fans are receptive to the idea of getting what they can for Sanchez and moving on, whether they get Manning or not.  And as highlighted above by Tomlinson, its unclear if Sanchez and Holmes can coexist in 2012.

That’s significant because Holmes signed a five year, $45 million deal just before last season, and he was owed a $7.5 million roster bonus of sorts yesterday, meaning that if the Jets cut Holmes now, they will be $7.5 million poorer than if they had cut him on Tuesday.  If the Jets were to side with Sanchez in their dispute and jettison Holmes, this would have been the time to do it.  The deadline came and went.  Holmes will now officially remain a Jets player in 2012.

Woody Johnson, owner of the most unfortunate name in history and also the New York Jets, set up a rather suspiciously timed face to face meeting with Sanchez- set for just after that Holmes deadline.  As Tomlinson alluded to, keeping both Sanchez and Holmes would be difficult; tough decisions will have to be made.  It seems distinctly possible that New York could be considering an early exit from the Sanchez era.  Even if Sanchez and Holmes mend fences, which both he and Holmes are attempting but seems unlikely, there is also the fact that Sanchez has a large amount of antipathy in his own locker room.  It could be an environment poisoned beyond repair.  A change of scenery might be necessary for both parties, and soon.  Regardless of whether Manning is signed by the Jets or not.

If the Jets are looking to trade Sanchez, it seems unlikely he’d get a huge return.  Sanchez’s image is pretty damaged around the league- fairly or not- and consensus (from my own research) seems to indicate that he would command something like a 3rd or 4th round pick in a deal.  Jets fans I’ve encountered seem pretty receptive to the idea of trading Sanchez and getting something for him now instead of potentially nothing later, and dealing Sanchez would also have the side benefit of taking them off the hook for his $14.2 million salary cap number in 2012.  Sanchez posted mediocre (though improved) statistics in 2011, and could be easily replaced by someone like David Garrard, Kyle Orton, or Jason Campbell without feeling much- if any- short term pain.  Dealing Sanchez quickly could also increase the Jets slim chances of landing Manning, and they are expected to at least try for his services.

If Sanchez is dealt, and it increasingly appears this could be a very real possibility, there is no more obvious destination in the NFL than Seattle.  Regardless of our personal opinions on Sanchez, he clearly fits the high upside low cost “value” acquisition Seattle has frequently targeted under this regime.  Guys like Mike Williams, Leon Washington, LenDale White, Kentwan Balmer, Marshawn Lynch, and Brandon Browner.  A lot of Sanchez’s problems could be cured with a change of scenery, being forced to compete for his job, having better teammates around him (both as players and as people), and being part of an environment that is friendly but also stresses accountability.  As we saw with White, Carroll holds his former USC players to the same standard as everyone else.  Playing as far away as possible from the New York media would probably help too.

Pete Carroll commented recently that he wants there to be a real competition at quarterback in 2012.  If all goes to plan, we won’t see a repeat of last year where Jackson was the unquestioned starter from day one.  Making this goal reality is harder than it seems though.  It would be difficult to achieve true competition through any rookie other than Luck or RG3, and as we understand things, the odds of either being a Seahawk next year are extremely slim.  Cousins and Weeden are NFL ready relative to most mid round quarterbacks, but its doubtful they would provide much of a threat to Jackson in August of 2012.  To make this statement a reality, they would probably need to add a veteran who is roughly the same caliber of quarterback as Jackson.  Orton, Campbell, and Garrard could be options, but Seattle showed no interest in either Garrard or Orton when they were free agents during last season, and the team made no effort to trade for Campbell which is saying something since the Raiders acquired him for pennies on the dollar from the Redskins.

Mark Sanchez has slightly improved every season, and last year, his overall statistics were pretty close to Jackson’s.  Their passer ratings were within a point of each other (78.2 vs. 79.2).  Jackson posted a significantly higher yards per attempt, (6.9 vs. 6.4), but its worth noting that Sanchez’s YPA was fairly robust early in the season before issues with his receivers developed.  Only 50% of Sanchez’s attempts to Holmes were completed (worst in the NFL among pairings with 100+ attempts).  While I would give the statistical edge to Jackson last year, you kind of got the feeling that Jackson was near his ceiling as a quarterback (at least mentally), and Sanchez is still improving despite having a ton of distractions and problems in 2011.

Further, Jackson was playing a game manager role whereas the Jets leaned on Sanchez to be a playmaker.  Sanchez had a 26-18 TD/INT ratio last year compared to a 14/13 ratio for Jackson.  It could be that Sanchez could benefit from playing in a less demanding game manger role in much the same way that Jackson did in 2011.

It should be noted that while Jackson was a very poor quarterback in the red zone last year, Mark Sanchez was the NFL’s 5th best red zone quarterback and led the Jets to the NFL’s #1 overall red zone offense, despite the fact that the Jets overall offense ranked just 25th.  Having a quarterback who isn’t afraid to make tight throws could help Williams and Obomanu bounce back after both felt the loss of Hasselbeck last season.

While it no longer seems that Sanchez is a sure-fire franchise quarterback, it is at least credible to say that he’d provide a very real challenge in August for Tarvaris Jackson, much more of a challenge than a mid round quarterback like Cousins or Weeden.  Its also possible that a change of scenery, a reunion with his old coach, and the motivation of having to “earn everything” (one of Pete’s slogans in Seattle) could help Sanchez blossom into a solidly above average quarterback.  And even if a Sanchez acquisition fairs no better than the acquisitions of Balmer or White, the Seahawks will have likely lost less in that deal than what they lost in Charlie Whitehurst, who to me was a far inferior gamble then compared to Sanchez now.

Finally, its worth noting that connections matter to this front office.  The team very nearly signed Matt Leinart last summer before he opted to play for the Texans.  Multiple sources told us that Seattle was involved in talks with Cincy regarding Carson Palmer.  The team signed Tarvaris Jackson in large part because of his connections to new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.  Even Josh Portis had some connections to Pete Carroll through his college offensive coordinator Walt Harris, whom Portis credits for developing him into a point guard quarterback.  Harris and Carroll worked together while in New York and both held coaching positions in the Pac-10 for a time.

There are three possible hangups to a deal.  The first is salary.  Sanchez is basically on a 2 year, $22 million contract and that would certainly have to be restructured.

The second issue is Carroll himself- has Pete Carroll forgiven Mark Sanchez for leaving USC early?  The normally positive and upbeat Carroll was visibly upset with Sanchez for the decision to go pro in 2009, after Carroll worked hard to convince Sanchez into staying.  Rob recently reached out to Scott Enyeart (a USC beat writer who also follows the Seahawks) and Enyeart mentioned that Sanchez was never as close with Carroll as he was with Steve Sarkisian and that the relationship between the two was fractured possibly beyond repair when Sanchez declared.

The third issue are the reports of the Jets cancerous locker room- how much of that is Mark Sanchez’s fault?  From the reports I have read, Sanchez comes across as a hard worker and a dedicated teammate, and I get the feeling that much of the discord is simply a bi-product of adversity coupled with a few big egos which have been poorly managed by the coaching staff- which is never a good combination.  Regardless, this is certainly something that would require looking into.

From the Jets’ side of things, they have given zero indication that they would trade Sanchez up to this point, but with the start of trade and free agency still five weeks away, it would be shocking to hear them say anything else, as it would invite an intense media storm at a time when the Jets can least afford it.

Is Darren McFadden on the trading block?

Oakland is entering the post Al Davis era in perhaps the most painful way possible.  The team’s new GM wants to install a west coast offense and a zone blocking running game, but the team is roughly $15-$20 million over the salary cap and only has only a 5th and 6th round pick to spend in the 2012 draft.  Despite the fact that Michael Bush is expected to leave in free agency, rumors are surfacing that Oakland could look to use star running back and former #4 overall pick Darren McFadden as a 2012 trade chip.  Trading McFadden wouldn’t just add some desperately needed draft capital, it would free them from the last two years of a 6 year, $60 million contract he signed in 2008.  McFadden was the first draft pick by the Raiders during Tom Cable’s turn at head coach.

Its not completely clear if Cable and McFadden would have mutual interest in reuniting though.  McFadden struggled in Cable’s version of zone blocking scheme and did much better after Cable left.  Still, McFadden is a very talented running back who could interest Seattle as a “value” acquisition, depending on what Oakland’s asking price ends up being.  I think Seattle would probably prefer to draft a running back instead, but its not out of the question that they could pursue a veteran to bolster the running game- if they feel the price is right.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Its not exactly a secret that the Seahawks are going to prioritize improving the pass rush this offseason.  It’s been talked about so much, and yet there is one funny little detail that always gets left out:  Seattle actually has 4 pretty good defensive line starters already.

Red Bryant is perhaps the most unorthodox defensive end in the NFL, but for what he’s asked to do, he’s very effective.  He’ll be 28 at the start of next season.

There was a time near the end of the Tim Ruskell administration when a very compelling case could be made that Brandon Mebane was not just Seattle’s best defensive lineman, but the team’s best player period.  He’ll be 27 at the start of next season.

I know that some people are skeptical of Pro Football Focus and its metrics, but they loved Alan Branch last season- even naming Branch to their all-pro team at one point.  Branch may not create a lot of pressure, but like Bryant, he does a lot of quiet things very well.  He’ll be 27 at the start of next season.

Chris Clemons has 22 sacks in 2 seasons since becoming a Seahawk, has stayed healthy, and hasn’t been destroyed against the run as many thought he would be.  He’ll be 30 at the start of next season.

Across the board, this is a group of above average players who are in their primes.  So what’s the problem?  The problem is that the Seahawks only sacked the quarterback 33 times.  The Titans had the NFL’s second fewest sacks, and they had 28.  So how did this happen?   It happened because Seattle is (more or less) running a defense with a 3-4 styled defensive line and a 4-3 styled linebacking group.  And since 3-4 defenses rely on linebackers to create pressure and 4-3 defenses rely on the front four for pressure, you end up with the worst of both worlds from a pass rushing standpoint.  Out of the current front seven, only one player (Clemons) is counted on to consistently generate pressure.   Our pass rush is kind of like the experience of finishing off a loaf of bread to make a sandwich, then remembering that all you have left are the two crappy end pieces that no one ever wants to eat.  Even if the bread normally tastes great, its not much fun eating a sandwich made with those two skinny end pieces.

So what should the Seahawks do about it?  As I see, it, they have three options.  The first is to jettison Red Bryant and then acquire a more traditional 4-3 end.  Red Bryant is a free agent, and has 2 sacks- in his career.  Its hard to completely punt pass rush at one of the defensive end spots in a 4-3 and still hope to get pass rush results.  That said, given that Seattle appeared to sign Alan Branch primarily as 5-tech depth, and given how much Bryant contributes to the defense outside of pass rush, I don’ t think Seattle is going to revert to a more traditional 4-3 any time soon.

The second option is for Seattle to switch to a 3-4 defense.  Seattle has the defensive line for it, and is probably looking at overhauling their linebacker group anyway.  This isn’t the best draft for making a 3-4 conversion though.  There are no obvious Clay Matthews / Shawne Merriman / DeMarcus Ware caliber rush linebackers for Seattle to target if they moved to a 3-4.  It also seems unlikely because Pete Carroll is a defensive coach with strong ties to Monte Kiffin and a 4-3 scheme.

The last option is to just stay the course with the Red Bryant defense, but this could be the most challenging option of the three if you actually want results.  If the Seahawks want to be comfortably on the above average side of the league in pass rush, they’d need to add about ~10 sacks, and 10 sacks is a lot.  If you can’t add those sacks from Red Bryant’s spot (or Mebane’s spot- he’s probably the team’s long term 1 tech), you’d need to add them from the LEO position, the 3 tech position, and the linebackers.  Very few linebackers in a 4-3 scheme can be counted on to rack up sacks- so if Seattle wants to add sacks from the linebacking area, they will probably need to get creative about it.  One possibility is drafting Courtney Upshaw and playing him as a bit of a hybrid Will linebacker/stand-up end.  On pass rush downs you could have Upshaw line up outside of Bryant and create a look very similar to a 3-4 pass rush, while having Upshaw play a more traditional Will position on some other downs.  The downside of this is that it would put a lot of extra stress on the other two linebackers, and while Hawthorne is a nice player, he isn’t exactly known for his ability to cover a lot of ground.  It could expose Seattle’s defense to a greater risk of allowing a big play.

I suspect the Seahawks will get creative in some such way, but that probably won’t be enough in itself to fix the pass rush, even if Clemons continues to produce or is replaced by someone else (Dexter Davis, etc) who matches that production.  There really isn’t much way around it, Seattle needs to upgrade the pressure from its front four.  And if they keep Bryant, the only place they can really accomplish that goal is the 3-tech defensive tackle position.

As said before, Seattle isn’t exactly hurting at defensive tackle.  Branch was a quality starter.  Hargrove and McDonald combined to make for quality depth.  If Seattle goes out and acquires a “run of the mill” 3 tech, its unlikely that he’d have much of an impact.  The Seahawks have to be careful here- Branch’s contributions should not be overlooked- it really wouldn’t make sense to downgrade the defense as a whole just to add a handful of sacks.  If the team is going to replace Branch, they must make sure they are actually upgrading the position, and that means either trading for an elite player, or rolling the dice on a player who could be elite.

Seattle could try to draft a situational 3 tech pass rusher who plays only on pass rush downs, but one problem with that is that substitutions can be problematic against hurry up offenses- so if possible you would prefer your 3 tech pass rusher to be a 3 down lineman.  And that’s the problem.  Effective pass rushing defensive tackles who can play every down are one of the rarest finds in the NFL- its a big reason why you just about never see a 4-3 defense build a pass rush away from defensive end.

Complicating matters further is that good pass rush defensive tackles are rarely a sure thing.  Guys like Ndamukong Suh and Warren Sapp are a rare beast indeed.  It goes without saying that you won’t find anything comparable to that in the 2012 draft, and maybe not for many years to come.

Perhaps the best defensive tackle in this class is Michael Brockers, which is kind of funny since Brocker’s 2011 season looked an awful lot like Alan Branch’s.  Brockers only registered 2 sacks in 14 games, but made up for it by being an exceptional all-purpose 3 tech.  Brockers will not be a high pick this April because of those results though.  He’ll be a high pick because of the results he could be posting in 2013 or 2014.  Brockers hasn’t quite put it all together yet, but he’s a guy that could easily become an elite pass rushing defensive tackle if enough things break right.

I don’t know if Quinton Coples can safely be classified as a 3 tech- he strikes me more as a Justin Tuck hybrid type.  I’ve long been turned off by Coples lack of effort and inconsistency, but his senior bowl performance was illuminating and mind changing.  Coples truly does have elite potential.  Of that there is no longer any doubt.  And for what its worth, Coples’ hype began in the first place from a splash debut as a 10 sack 3 tech in 2010 in relief of the suspended Marvin Austin.  It would not shock me at all if Coples is drafted by a team with the intention of playing him at the 3 tech.

Two years ago, Geno Atkins dominated the senior bowl and hoped to elevate his stock.  He ended up falling into the 4th round, but today he’s one of the more exciting young defensive tackles in the game.  Interestingly enough, Atkins was a player that interested Seattle in the 2nd round of that draft, but they rated Golden Tate higher and never got a second shot at Atkins.  While I don’t think anyone takes the senior bowl more seriously than the dozens of real games that preceded it over a prospect’s career, it can help remove doubts about raw ability.  This is a game where almost every player is at or near NFL caliber while in a job interview type situation.  They want to look their best.  With coaches/GMs from every NFL franchise watching, the last thing they want is to have the guy across from them make them look bad.  Dominating in that kind of situation should stand out.

Atkins himself was a 4th rounder.  Remember Rocky Bernard and his 8.5 sacks in 2005?  He was a 5th round pick.  Just because Seattle needs to make a splash doesn’t always mean that player has to be an early pick.  Whether or not that kind of player can be found later in 2012 is yet to be seen.

My favorite defensive player in this draft is probably Devon Still.  And yet, I don’t think I’d draft him.  Still could easily be Mebane 2.0- perhaps even better.  The reason is because Still doesn’t really offer much hope as an elite pass rusher.  He will collapse the pocket.  He will occasionally shed blocks.  But Alan Branch is already doing that to a lesser degree.  Still is a very good player, but he might be redundant on this roster, a luxury pick in a draft where the Seahawks seem determined to avoid making a luxury pick early on.  As a pass rusher, Still can’t offer the same raw potential that Coples or Brockers could provide, and for Seattle’s crazy defense that relies on so few areas to create pressure, its key that those areas produce, and produce big.

John Schneider’s drafts so far have been risk averse at the top.  In the first round, it doesn’t get much safer than drafting two offensive tackles and a safety.  Would this front office be willing to take a chance with a high pick on Brockers or Coples?  If addressing the pass rush through defensive tackle is their goal, and they want to make that investment this year, I would say they almost have to.  Of course, the team will keep all options open, and I get the feeling they are leaning more towards defensive end than defensive tackle early, but wherever they end up addressing defensive tackle, I’m hoping for a player with as high a ceiling as possible, even if that player is a big risk.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Things just got very interesting.

In what could be argued is the most surprising declaration so far, Darron Thomas let it be known last night that he will forgo his senior season to enter the 2012 draft.  Thomas isn’t a guy who’s (yet) talked about as a major quarterback prospect, but it seems pretty likely he will be in short order.  He’s 6’3″, 215 lbs, and will likely post a very strong 40 time.  He led the #6 offense in college football this year, and the year before he led Oregon to the National Championship game (the #2 offense nationally that year).   Obviously, those offenses were built on the running game, but while Thomas could perhaps be labeled a bit of a game manager, he is capable of carrying an offense on his back from time to time.  Thomas has a lot of similarities to Robert Griffin, and is, in my opinion, easily superior as a prospect to Ryan Tannehill.   Robert Griffin could go as high as #2 overall, and if you buy into the source Rob cited the other day, there is a very real top 15 buzz for Ryan Tannehill right now.

Obviously, this could put Thomas right in Seattle’s wheelhouse at #11 or #12.  That might seem high, but consider the alleged draft stock for Tannehill or how highly Jake Locker was drafted last year. Thomas may not deserve that high a grade, but remember that quarterbacks are usually over-drafted.   Thomas wouldn’t have passed up a shot at a 2012 National Championship to be a 7th round pick.  Perhaps he received a good review from the NFL draft committee?

Regardless of where Thomas actually ends up drafted, he is exactly the kind of quarterback Seattle is looking for, and if their interest in Colin Kaepernick last year was an indication, I expect them to rate Thomas highly.  As of right now, Thomas is a bit of an under-rated prospect, but if Tannehill can fly up the boards, so can Thomas.  I’ll post more thoughts on Thomas over the next few days.

In the meantime, here’s a video of Thomas playing in the Rose Bowl (full game).  I’m not sure how long it will last as that seems like a pretty blatant copyright issue, but its there right now!  You can find even more games in thornsx’s corresponding youtube channel.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Last year, Rob and I made it no secret that we weren’t exactly the world’s biggest fans of TCU quarterback Andy Dalton.  Dalton wasn’t without his merits, but ultimately I felt that as an athletic quarterback who would play whole games without checking a second read, he wasn’t much different than Charlie Whitehurst.  Obviously, many NFL front offices value intangibles more than we do.  Even our own front office rated Dalton as their #3 quarterback ahead of guys like Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, and even Cam Newton.

Regardless of what we thought, Andy Dalton was widely considered a 2nd round prospect by NFL GMs.  His selection and rookie success rewarded the Bengals for what was probably just a typical stubborn move by owner/GM Mike Brown.  Andy Dalton the prospect was never the thinking man’s quarterback, rather, he was the quarterback for someone who just wants a winner and cares little about the details.  That said, even if on the surface the over-drafting of Dalton doesn’t appear terribly nuanced, I have to give Brown a lot of credit for thinking it through.  The Bengals realized that getting both AJ Greene and Andy Dalton could net a better result than drafting Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker and pairing him with a nondescript second round receiver.

So what happened?  Andy Dalton posted numbers slightly superior to Sam Bradford’s offensive rookie of the year season and his team won 9 games (and a playoff berth) while playing in the same division as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.  He did that on a team that finished 4-12 the year before with Carson Palmer at quarterback, and who lost their best defensive player (Johnathan Joseph) in free agency.  Andy Dalton still has long odds of ever being an All-pro quarterback.  But given the full context, it could easily be argued that he had one of the five most impressive quarterback debuts in NFL history.

I just finished watching Dalton in a losing effort against the Texans.  While it would be easy to pick on a guy after a 31-10 loss, Dalton impressed me today.  He went on the road against arguably the toughest pass defense in the NFL.  The Texans were on the inside track for home field advantage throughout the playoffs before Matt Schaub went down, and both the fans and players were energized for the first playoff game in the franchise’s history.  Dalton didn’t have a particularly great performance, but I saw a lot of technical improvements over his TCU days- he actually did check beyond his first read this time.  To put it in very simple terms, Dalton actually looked like a real NFL quarterback.  I may not agree with the draft pick spent on Dalton, but it appears that Mike Brown somehow won this one, just like he somehow won the Carson Palmer fiasco despite playing his hand completely wrong.  Hey it happens.

But it never would have worked out if not for the Bengals securing AJ Greene first.

Enter the 2012 draft.  Andrew Luck is unofficially officially the #1 pick.  After that, you have a couple teams that would consider investing in a quarterback, but aren’t exactly “ready” for a quarterback either.  Barring a surprise entry such as Tyler Wilson, Robert Griffin pretty much stands alone as the only legit first round quarterback from the second pick onward.  The new car smell on Griffin’s Heisman trophy coupled with Matt Barkley’s conspicuous absence has vaulted Griffin into lofty draft territory by an overzealous media.  Griffin could absolutely go top five, but a mini-fall should not be unexpected either.  Like Jake Locker, he has sublime potential, but a laundry list of things to nitpick him on.  It could be argued that Griffin’s timing is better than Locker’s, and as a result those flaws might be less examined or less emphasized.  But like all top 10 range quarterbacks, Griffin will be put under a microscope and mountains will be made of mole hills, which could be a problem for Griffin as his resume has a bit of a mole infestation going on.

Long story short, there are two teams (Cleveland and Washington) who are in a remarkably similar situation to the Bengals last year.  Might they view Dalton’s success as a roadmap?

In the 2011 draft, the Bengals picked 4th overall and had access to the #2 quarterback on the board at that point, but lacked weapons to accommodate a drafted quarterback.  In 2012, the Cleveland Browns will also pick 4th, have access (presumably) to the #2 quarterback on the board and lack weapons to accommodate that pick.  As much as I kick myself for not hyping up Greg Little (who I thought the world of last April), Little isn’t yet a true #1 receiver and Cleveland’s offense in general is pretty barren outside of the offensive line.

The Redskins will pick sixth and are in a similar situation.  They have a semi-promising young running back in Roy Helu and a productive tight end in Fred Davis, but their leading receiver last year was 31 year old Jabar Gaffney.  Roy Helu- a running back mind you- started all of five games and finished 3rd on the team in receptions, ahead of all but Gaffney among the team’s wide receivers.    While its clear that quarterback is the top need in Washington, wide receiver is not far behind.

The early second round of the 2012 draft will likely feature both Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiller, who are at least on par with Andy Dalton as prospects, even if they missed the crazy hype train.  The early first round will have no shortage of hyped wide receivers, with Justin Blackmon leading the pack.  He may not be AJ Greene, but in terms of hype, he’s not terribly far off.  Its possible that Dwight Jones could enter the discussion as well.

Some may question the wisdom of passing on Griffin for any reason, but for a pair of former hotshot west coast offense gurus entering a critical put up or shut up year, the Andy Dalton path to quick success has a lot of appeal.  Drafting Griffin, starting him right away, and denying him the kind of weapons he enjoyed at Baylor is a faulty short term strategy.  And unfortunately for both Holmgren and Shanahan, short term thinking probably has more value to them at this point.

Now I am not saying that I expect Cleveland or Washington to pass on Griffin, but I do think that teams could look at the Dalton formula and believe it could work for them as well.  And while I doubt that Griffin would ever reach the 11th or 12th pick, every pick that he falls is good news for the Seahawks should they be interested in his services.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Part I

I’m gonna level with you guys, I’ve been a long time skeptic of searching for franchise quarterbacks with late round picks.  I’ve seen numerous studies done, and they inevitably come to the same conclusion:  Quarterbacks may be the riskiest 1st round picks, but the odds of getting a QB anywhere else is far worse.  Here is a chart that tracks pro-bowl quarterbacks taken from 1995 to 2006:

So please understand, this series is not about convincing anyone that a late-round approach is guaranteed to find us the next franchise savior.  However, our front office has to be prepared to do the best they can with the hand they are dealt.  Going the late round route in 2012 is a far inferior option, but it might be the only one.

Now that I’ve gotten all of that out of the way, there is some reason for optimism using this approach.  Unless you’ve been living in a cave, it should be abundantly clear that John Schneider knows a thing or two about identifying value in the later rounds, and Pete Carroll knows a thing or two about developing those players: Chancellor, Wright, Sherman, Browner, Baldwin and even Tate are among them.   We’ve even seen some development with Tarvaris Jackson this year, and while its clear that Whitehurst is on his way out due to his not being very good, he did post the best preseason of his career this year after Carroll tailored a dumbed-down offense to cover Whitehurst’s substantial deficiencies (something he didn’t do for Whitehurst in the regular season, unfortunately).

Seattle is quickly becoming a good landing spot for a young quarterback.  It has an improving offensive line.  It has an improving running game.  It has quality at receiver and tight end.  And it has a serious up and coming defense.  But perhaps best of all, it has a philosophy which asks precious little of it’s quarterback, the same philosophy that made a good starter out of Alex Smith of all people.  In other words, Seattle does not even need to find a quarterback who was a world beater in college, it only needs a coachable player who can learn and has the tools to execute basic plays with ease.

Remember when Michael Vick was a bust who couldn’t throw the ball to save his life?  That changed pretty quickly when he was introduced to Andy Reid’s version of the point guard role.  Just because a guy makes lousy decisions in one offense or appears to have a limited grasp doesn’t mean he would in ours.  Hence, it makes sense that Seattle has generally targeted quarterbacks with a lot of innate talent, but who lacked mental skill.  While I think Jordan Jefferson is far from being a good quarterback, his pros and cons fit nicely with what this front office is trying to accomplish at the position.

Having such low requirements and a good quarterback environment not only increases Seattle’s odds of success, but it also widens the lens and allows Seattle to look at a very large number of potential quarterbacks, including some who may not get drafted by any other team at all, just like Josh Portis last year.

One comment from yesterday was almost incredulous that I seemed to be touting Keenum and Jefferson.  Believe me, I’m not.  The purpose of these posts is NOT to make you guys believe that there are dozens of franchise saviors out there for the taking dirt cheap.  Rather, its to provide some basic information from a Seahawks perspective regarding this late round field of quarterbacks, so that hopefully, when Seattle drafts one (or two) of them next April, it won’t leave us all saying “Who?”  That said, there are a few quarterbacks out there later on that I do actually find a little exciting.  Today I’ll actually cover a couple of them (its not the first one).

So without any further ado:

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Dominique Davis, E. Carolina. Size: 6’3″, 215. Class: Sr.  Age:  22.

Yet another Conference-USA quarterback on this list.  Davis is an athletic quarterback with size and build similar to Robert Griffin, though with perhaps a touch less speed.

Davis began his college career at Boston College as Matt Ryan’s backup.  After losing the battle for the starters job the next season, and also failing to meet academic standards, he transferred to Fort Scott community college, where amazingly enough, he found himself in a playoff game later that year against Cam Newton, and would have won a shootout if not for his team surrendering an 84 yard punt return touchdown with 15 seconds left.

Unfortunately, for all the positives Davis possess, he is the definition of a project.  Davis completed 67.6% of his passes, but also threw a whopping 19 interceptions this year.  He has a great deep ball, but could only muster a 6.53 YPA.  His 2010 numbers were similar.  Its hard to say anything of substance regarding Davis since I don’t have access to game tape, but everything I read about him paints the picture of a quarterback with mental deficiencies.  Davis fits the profile Seattle is seeking, but I don’t know if they would actually spend a draft pick on him.  Josh Portis looks like the better 3rd quarterback between the two, and Seattle didn’t spend a pick on Portis.  That said, would it shock me if Dominique Davis was a member of this roster next August?  Not in the slightest.

Expected draft trajectory:  Late rounds, possible UDFA.

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Chandler Harnish, N. Illinois. Size: 6’2″, 220. Class: Sr.  Age:  23.

While I am trying my best to not paint too positive a picture for any of these late round prospects, Harnish has presented maybe the greatest challenge so far.  I haven’t seen much, but what I’ve seen, I like.

Harnish is very close to prototypical NFL height and size.  Coming from the MAC, Harnish didn’t exactly play the world’s toughest schedule, but he did lead his team to eight straight regular season victories to end is NIU career.  His 2011 stat line was very impressive:  62.9% completion rate, 8.45 YPA, and 26/5 TD/INT, and his 2010 stat-line was almost identical.  Harnish also had a Kaepernick-esque 1,382 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns last year.  In 2010, he had 836 rushing yards and 7 rushing scores.

In the link above, there is a compilation video from his game against Army.  Unfortunately, its not comprehensive and only includes positive plays, but its enough to see the kind of ability Harnish has.

Harnish has been accused of having an “average arm,” but I don’t see it that way.  Harnish is capable of making some great downfield throws with zip, but often deliberately chooses to take a lot off the ball to ensure accuracy and touch on certain throws.  Keith Price had the same “problem” early on in 2011, but as the season went along, he learned how to blend touch and zip to perfection.  As I recall, Tarvaris Jackson had a bit of a touch/zip balancing issue in the preseason and for years with the Vikings before ironing out the creases during the regular season this year.  Harnish hardly looks like a weakling either, as you might have guessed based on his weight/height.  With his pads off, he almost looks like a lesser Jake Locker in terms of bulk.  From what I’ve seen, I’d “sell” any notion that Harnish doesn’t have a good arm.

His dropback is pretty seemless, and his footwork is above average.  His release point could be better, but its not horrible, and the ball gets out of his hand very quickly- except when he’s lofting to add touch.  He executes plays in a crisp manner.  He doesn’t appear to make a ton of reads, but based on the front office’s history, that probably won’t be a sticking point- especially for a late rounder.  I can’t be definitive from so little data, but it does appear that he has above average pocket awareness and is highly elusive.  Its not surprising that he’s only been sacked 9 times this year.  And obviously, he possesses impressive mobility, like a shiftier Ryan Tannehill.

Another positive for Harnish is as a multi-sport player and great athlete, he could contribute at another position if he doesn’t make it at quarterback.

We’ll get a better look at Harnish when he plays in the GoDaddy Bowl (January 8th) against Arkansas State.

Expected draft trajectory:  Mid-to-Late rounds.

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Russell Wilson, Wisconsin. Size: 5’11″, 201. Class: Sr.  Age:  23.

Note:  Some sites list Wilson’s height as 5’10”.

Russell Wilson probably deserves a writeup all to himself, but for now just let me say that Wilson’s college career was so tantalizing that its causing me to rethink my stance on sub-six-foot quarterbacks.  If you follow college football even a little, you probably already know what Wilson has done at Wisconsin this year, which is dominate one of the better conferences in college football and help Wisconsin to a Rose Bowl berth.  Wisconsin lost on the road to two tough teams by margins of six and four points (and one of those losses was successfully avenged in the conference championship game), but won every other game by an average margin of 33.5 points.  That’s some seriously dominant football.

Wilson was (yet another) transfer quarterback, having been a star at NC State before transferring to Wisconsin just this year.  The recent success of transfer quarterbacks is slowly changing the way major programs look at recruiting the quarterback position, and Wilson is just the latest example of that.

A very common comparison for Wilson is Troy Smith, who was roughly the same height and also dominated while playing in the same conference.  Troy Smith won a Heisman, but he never had a season quite like the one Wilson is having this year.  Consider these unreal numbers and remember that Wilson wasn’t playing a cakewalk schedule:  72.5% completion rate, 10.14 YPA, 31 TD, 3 INT.  Obviously, stats never tell the whole story for evaluating college prospects, but HOLY CRAP!  In 2011, Russell Wilson was basically a five foot eleven inch version of Cam Newton (albeit less explosive).  If Russell were the exact same player in a 6’3″ body (assuming weight scaled with his height), he’d be a serious candidate to go #1 overall in most drafts.  He’s that good (not to mention, a perfect fit in the point guard quarterback role).

Wilson has a great throwing motion.  The ball gets out fast enough and comes out very high.  Its enough to make me legitimately wonder if he can overcome his height issue in the NFL because I just don’t see a lot of batted balls with that throwing motion.  Sure, he’s going to have trouble seeing targets on 3 step drops, but on 5 step drops, 7 step drops, and shotgun snaps, I have yet to see him “tiptoe” before making a pass.  His mobility is not elite but scores as solidly above average.  His dropbacks are smooth and his footwork is solid with some room for further improvement.  As you might expect for a short and mobile quarterback, Wilson really shines on rollouts and bootlegs.  He executes plays well, is extremely accurate, and has a pretty deep ball.  He’s also a great leader on the field and gives good interviews off of it.  There is so much to like about this guy.

But alas, height is a major sticking point for NFL front offices, and durability could be a big concern as well (he’s barely 200 lbs without much room for growth).  If Wilson becomes a dominant NFL quarterback, it wouldn’t just be an amazing achievement, he’d literally be the first great quarterback of his kind.  Still, if there ever is a sub-six-foot quarterback who can pull it off some day, I can hardly imagine that player being any better of a college quarterback than Russell Wilson.

Expected draft trajectory:  Late rounds / UDFA.

To be continued…