Let’s start with a positive. Seattle’s defense is trending in the right direction. Pete Carroll couldn’t turn this unit around but Mike Macdonald has. They’ve adjusted personnel during the season and they’re in a good place.
This isn’t a reaction to the win in Chicago. They played a shambolic Bears team. Their 179 total yards of offense for the game was only their fourth worst performance of the season. This is about more than last night. We can clearly see the impact of Macdonald and his defensive staff this season.
The defense isn’t going to take over the league in its current form, earn a trendy nickname or lead the Seahawks to a deep playoff run alone. However, they have good players at every level and they can add more. With a bit of fine-tuning, things can grow further in 2025.
Then there’s the offense, which is in a very different place. Plus the broader fact that the Seahawks as a franchise are 34-34 in the last four seasons and face the prospect of winning the NFC West just twice in the last 10 years.
Fine-tuning isn’t going to be enough here. Far more disruption and change is required. If the defense is capable of being competitive and difficult to play against, the offense currently is letting the side down badly.
A lot of people like to pick one problem — Ryan Grubb, the offensive line, Geno Smith — and say it’s the only issue. The truth is it’s a combination of a number of things. Let’s go through them topic by topic.
Running back investment
It is malpractice at this point for the Seahawks to have used two second round picks on two talented running backs, preach their desire to feature a running game year after year (under two different Head Coaches) and still seemingly have no idea how to get the best out of either player.
Ken Walker has been unfortunate with injuries, raising questions over his ability to stay healthy. Yet even when he’s on the field, you never feel like the Seahawks are anywhere close to maxing out his talent. When Zach Charbonnet plays in relief he often shows flashes of starter-level quality. Against the Bears he had 50 yards in the first half. It should’ve set the table for a +100 yard night, especially in a low-scoring game in difficult conditions. He had just seven yards in the second half.
As someone who rated Walker and Charbonnet highly, and as someone who craves the Seahawks to have a first class running game, I had no problem with either pick. I do have a problem, though, with how they’ve totally squandered the investment.
Now Walker is approaching a contract year and who knows what they should do with him? Can they ever turn this into a two-headed monster? Is Charbonnet better as a lead runner than a change of pace back? Are both players destined to be one-contract types, with the benefit of rookie-salary production flushed away over four years?
How has the team butchered its own draft plan by taking two early round running backs and making the running game such an inconsistent dogs dinner?
And sure, they can speak about ‘improvements’ because the running backs combined for 103 yards yesterday. Be honest with yourself. When you were watching that game in Chicago, did you feel like the Seahawks had fixed their running game? I didn’t. And we’re days removed from the Minnesota game where they had 46 passing situations and ran the ball with their backs 13 times. In a close, one-score game, at home. It makes no sense.
DK Metcalf’s future
This was supposed to be Metcalf’s breakout year. Ryan Grubb was going to feature him and turn him into a true #1. Instead, he’s been reduced to a frustrated bit-part player — on pace to fall short of 1000 receiving yards for the third time in his career with only four touchdown catches.
Metcalf had only three targets against the Bears — two fewer than Noah Fant, the same number as Zach Charbonnet and one fewer than peripheral figure Tyler Lockett. It’s pretty clear at this point that Grubb can’t maximise all of Seattle’s passing options. The assumption is that Lockett is just at the end but I’m starting to wonder if it’s more a case of this offense isn’t good enough to feature three talented receivers.
It’s creating a problem for the Seahawks. Metcalf’s cap-hit next season is $31.9m, the final year of his deal. A decision on his future is necessary one way or another. But what do you do? You can’t pay him like an elite receiver after this season. He isn’t obliged to accept a lesser deal to do you a favour. His trade stock, if you wish to move him, will be as low as it’s ever been.
You end up with three scenarios and none of them are appealing. Either eat the $31.9m and hope he bounces back in a contract year, then risk losing him for nothing anyway. This isn’t ideal given the team is currently $15.3m over the cap for 2025. Give him a massive contract extension and hope a new offense will help him — but there’s an increasingly strong chance he’ll never live up to the salary. Or, you give him away for a price you would’ve scoffed at two years ago.
What on earth do they do here?
If your conclusion is to just trade him away, you also need to remember trading him will cost the Seahawks $21m in dead money. Not only would you be getting less in a deal, you’d also be eating a huge amount of cap space for the privilege.
They set Metcalf’s current contract up with two things in mind. One, that he would develop into a highly productive player. Two, he’d be someone you actively work to extend next off-season. The 2024 season has torched everything and now there are no obvious ‘wins’ for the team, only major risks.
This is a badly handled mess. Somehow they need to sort this out.
The offensive line needs fixing
Everyone knows this to be true. How they go about it, though, is immensely challenging.
You essentially have two options. Spend a lot of money, knowing you might end up paying a premium price for an average or slightly above average player (see: Panthers). Or you invest draft stock into your line and hope they can hit the ground running. In recent seasons, very few highly drafted linemen have succeeded early in their careers.
There’s good and bad news relating to the 2025 off-season. There are decent players eligible for the draft who can help the Seahawks, including with their top pick. If they want their line to be big and powerful and follow the formula the Rams have taken, they can take Tyler Booker in round one. If they want to be more athletic and zone-centric, they can look at players like Josh Conerly Jr and convert him to left guard. These are just two names, there are thankfully several others they could target.
As long as they are actually prepared to take an interior offensive linemen early — and that’s not a given, considering what John Schneider said about them being ‘over-drafted and overpaid’ — they will have options.
That’s just one position though. They likely need to add a center and a right guard too. It’s hard to have any faith in Christian Haynes at this point, seeing as they are actively allowing Sataoa Laumea to live through rookie growing pains instead.
In the draft, multiple quality centers have already declared their intention to return to college. It might be Jake Majors or bust now. For that reason, they might be more inclined to sign a veteran. Are you prepared to spend a lot of money for an ageing Ryan Kelly? Are you prepared to pay a premium price for Josh Myers, a player who retains promise but hasn’t played at the level Green Bay hoped when they used a second round pick on him?
How problematic is it that the Seahawks are still rotating centers annually? Isn’t it high time they tried to put some roots down here?
Do they need to add a veteran guard? Isaac Seumalo or Trey Pipkins if they’re cut? Is Brandon Scherff well past his best? Can James Daniels stay healthy? Do you try and find something in Ben Cleveland, or some other cheaper project? Is that really going to cut it?
If the Chiefs allow Trey Smith to reach free agency, he could be a mega-contract target. How realistic is it, though, that a team like Kansas City lets him walk?
The key way to build an offensive line is to draft cornerstones. The Lions have three. They then filled in their other two sports with grizzled, proven veterans. The Seahawks have neither drafted and developed top performing starers to anchor the line, nor have they signed any. They band-aid multiple positions every year and the offensive line is too often a game of musical chairs.
So yeah — the draft will have some options for them. There will probably be some names they can have a look at in free agency. Are they going to be able to fix their O-line, after years of toil, in one off-season? Probably not if we’re being honest. Although everyone will expect them to try.
There will be a new offensive coordinator
It just hasn’t worked for Ryan Grubb. I don’t fault the Seahawks too much for giving it a go — yet in hindsight, it does feel slightly reckless that they gave Kalen De Boer’s right hand man, someone who’d never coached a day in the NFL previously, the keys to run a pro-offense. How did that come to pass?
There shouldn’t be a year’s grace here. This is the NFL, not a coaching school for trainee coordinators. The Seahawks can’t risk another year of offense like this — with half-field reads, awful or non-existent play-action and a running game that pops up to say hello every now and again but otherwise hides in the shadows. Big name weapons are under-utilised, screen plays are highly predictable and play-calling seems telegraphed too often. I don’t believe you need to be an X’s and O’s savant to say this looks bad enough for change to occur.
I think it seems pretty clear that Mike Macdonald wants to be very hands-on with the defense, while trusting a similar expert for offense to lead that side of the ball. Therefore, this is not a role for a NFL novice. They need someone who understands the league. Someone who can create a base level of offense that is, if nothing else, balanced and better. Ideally it’s someone who has called plays before in the NFL.
This, to me, is of equal importance as trying to fix the offensive line.
Firing season will be worth monitoring. Which of the offensive leaders will lose their jobs — and who will be hoping to get back into the league quickly as a coordinator? Doug Pedersen? Brian Daboll? What about coordinators becoming available? Brian Schottenheimer? Mike Kafka? Klint Kubiak? Is Josh McDaniels too toxic at this point to bring in to run an offense? He succeeded leading the Patriots offense but struggled badly as a Head Coach (twice).
There are candidates waiting for an opportunity, although some won’t have called plays, such as Joe Bleymaier the Chiefs passing game coordinator, highly rated Chargers passing game coordinator Marcus Brady (a Harbaugh-tree coach), Tanner Engstrand who was interviewed last time (although he might be more likely to stay in Detroit and replace Ben Johnson), Josh Grizzard the Buccs passing game coordinator, Scottie Montgomery the Lions running game coordinator and Josh McCown who has been Sam Darnold’s quarterback coach in Minnesota.
Here’s the dilemma. Can you afford to take a chance on a rookie again? Especially an outsider, with everything needing to change schematically and with potential further growing pains? I don’t think you can. Not if Macdonald wants someone to essentially be the Head Coach of the offense.
Therefore, they probably need to find someone experienced or at least someone capable of providing continuity with an internal candidate they trust. A perfect scenario would be for Macdonald to find his Wade Phillips, who partnered with Sean McVay when he joined the Rams. Are candidates like Pedersen and Daboll, though, interested in immediately returning to the coaching ranks if they are fired? Is there another experienced candidate we’re not thinking of?
Or are they destined to promote the highly regarded Jake Peetz, stolen from the Rams a year ago curiously. I wonder if that is most likely — particularly given his roots within the McVay tree — with the benefit of keeping some continuity, while pivoting to someone with more NFL experience, within a system that has consistently produced results (unless you’re Shane Waldron).
If I had to guess who is leading Seattle’s offense next year, it would be Peetz. I’m not sure how that will go — and perhaps in an ideal world, they would appoint someone with a proven track record who is also an experienced NFL play-caller.
The quarterback dilemma
The truth is, Geno Smith simply hasn’t played very well over the last few weeks. We don’t need to make excuses for why that has happened. Let’s just embrace it. He hasn’t played well.
In the last three games he’s thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s thrown two ‘big time throws’ and six ‘turnover worthy plays’. He’s collapsed in the red zone, his average PFF grade has been a 60.6 and despite having a ‘time to throw’ of 3.03 seconds against Chicago, he received his worst grade of the season (45.1).
It is impossible now to argue he warrants a big extension, like some people have. He has shown to be what many of us always saw him as — a very capable bridge quarterback. The problem for the Seahawks is they don’t have anyone waiting in the wings to bridge to — and this is a significant issue for the franchise.
After three years of Smith, and facing the prospect of paying him between $38-42m in a cap-hit next year, had they developed someone in the background — that player would almost certainly be taking over in 2025. I don’t blame the Seahawks for not having someone waiting in the wings. They have not whiffed on any draftable quarterback since trading Russell Wilson. They were dealt a difficult hand.
Yet they’re now stuck in essentially no-man’s land. If they cut or trade Geno Smith, the alternatives are thin and unattractive. The 2025 quarterback class is poor. If they just crack on, entering a fourth season of Geno starting, still with no bridge, it’ll feel like a drifting franchise with no real plan of action to create a future at the most important position.
I have no problem with Smith returning as the starter in 2025, for what it’s worth — but only if they actively do more at the position. That means identifying someone they do like in the draft, that perhaps most people are overlooking, to at least set up the bridge solution they’re crying out for — or by adding a player that can legitimately challenge Smith to start in 2025.
I’m really struggling with the draft options. I don’t think it would be wise to trade up for Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward (who I still believe will last a bit longer into the draft than most think). Two players they could’ve invested in — Drew Allar and Garrett Nussemeier — opted not to turn pro. I do think John Schneider sees something in Quinn Ewers — but he’s had such an underwhelming season to date, you’ll struggle to convince most people that he’s the future of the franchise. Is Jalen Milroe capable of being a Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts due to his physical upside, or is he simply not enough of an accomplished passer?
In terms of veteran competition, the options are thin here too. There’s no reclamation project as appealing as Darnold or Baker Mayfield this year. I have very little faith in Zach Wilson or Trey Lance treading the same path they did. I can’t imagine the Seahawks taking on Kirk Cousins (and wouldn’t want them to, either). People talk about Justin Fields but the reality is, I’m afraid, he’s not good as a passer. At all.
Darnold is the potential big-ticket free agent and I think his 2024 success is down to far more than just Kevin O’Connell. Darnold was highly talented with massive potential at USC. It’s not his fault his first two stops in the NFL were the Jets and Panthers. In his first realistic shot to be successful with a proper franchise, he’s shone. I would be perfectly comfortable making a bid to sign him, especially if you paired him with a McVay-tree coach.
However, if he leads the Vikings on a deep playoff run, or even to a Super Bowl, they can’t let him walk. They’ll surely extend him, turning JJ McCarthy into a version of Jordan Love — sitting him for a period of time, with an out in Darnold’s deal after two or three years. If the Vikings do allow Darnold to test the market, I think the likes of the Rams may try to sign him as a younger alternative to Matt Stafford, who appears increasingly closer to the end. Returning to LA to play for McVay would probably be impossible for Darnold to turn down.
Overall it’s quite a bleak situation. The Seahawks appear stuck, without much of a plan other than waiting for the right guy to come along. This is problematic. The franchise needs a jolt of energy. There’s very little that is marketable at the moment — and it plays into the recent ticket debates people have been having. There’s a lack of elite stars on the roster. There’s no longer the charismatic star coach on the sideline. Their record over the last four years is 7-10, 9-8, 9-8 and 9-7. To many, I imagine the Seahawks feel like a very uninteresting team these days.
The only real way to change that is to hit the jackpot at quarterback — but it’s also the hardest thing to do. The Ravens won the lottery taking a chance on Lamar Jackson. The Bills and Chiefs benefited from the NFL not realising the potential of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, allowing them to fall into trade-up range. The Bengals picked a great year to pick first overall, after Joe Burrow had a totally unpredictable legendary final season at LSU — elevating him from late-round prospect to legit NFL star within a few months.
I don’t know how the Seahawks find this in the near future. Until they do, they’re kind of stuck. They’ll be left wondering whether to spend money on a Darnold type, if he’s even available, or continue with Smith. It’s not a great place to be.
Inevitably it probably means more of Smith, albeit on a compromise agreement. I had a chuckle listening to Albert Breer say on the broadcast yesterday that Smith’s representatives would be seeking a long-term commitment in the off-season from the Seahawks. Good luck with that. The best they can hope for is a compromise deal that produces a higher overall earning opportunity in Seattle. I would imagine his market elsewhere would be similar to 2023 — quite cold. Smith’s best leverage is a lack of obvious alternatives — but is that really going to persuade the Seahawks to commit tens of millions to an ageing quarterback with a touchdown/interception ratio of 17/15 who is ending the season carrying a mystery knee injury and not playing very well?
The wildcard might be, as we’ve consistently said, that Schneider doesn’t appear committed to Smith. And maybe, as part of a need to completely revamp this offense, they’ll just go in a different direction — saving money in the process, taking a calculated risk.
At the end of the day, I’m tempted to say who cares if they do? I’m looking on Twitter today and seeing people celebrate the Seahawks having ‘another winning season’. This is great news, apparently. In Macdonald’s first season, no less!
I couldn’t care less about retaining a place in the middle-ground of the NFL. ‘Not being as bad as the Raiders’ is not something that gets the juices flowing. Preserving Seattle’s status as ‘not bad enough to be terrible, not good enough to be great’ feels more like a curse. There’s an army of people ready and willing to embrace this as achievement. It’s nothing. It’s an 11th place finish in the Premier League. It’s eighth in the 100m race at the Olympics.
The Seahawks didn’t fire Pete Carroll to win nine games. They made that change because they thought the roster was underachieving and the changes would bring about better results. Things about the team may be different — such as the defense — and that’s good news. But the end result is virtually the same — and the team is no closer to being taken seriously as a post-season contender.
Maybe more drastic moves are needed to elevate to the next tier? Perhaps those moves will carry risk of failure? Do you need the courage to risk failing, sometimes? Rather than just going year after year with the end result being very similar?
Maybe it’s time for some risk/reward? New approach to the O-line, new offensive staff, new quarterback. Are we really losing anything by adjusting the scouting approach to linemen and binning off the ‘over-paid and over-drafted’ mantra? A new offensive coordinator feels inevitable — but be ambitious. Are we honestly going to be ruing the decision to swap Geno Smith for someone else if it doesn’t work? It’s hardly the Bengals moving on from Burrow is it?
Consider disruption. Recapture that spirit that saw this franchise have the balls to move on from Pete Carroll and channel it towards an offensive rebuild.
