Author: Rob Staton (Page 2 of 427)

Hi all, usual request on a Tuesday. Please watch my latest Bump & Stacy appearance below and if possible, head over to the YouTube video and leave a like and a comment. I would massively appreciate it if you could do that.

Also, here is the latest Seahawks Collective podcast which continues to be an hour I love to do every Tuesday:

“Pete, after Geno’s third interception he now leads the NFL (in interceptions). Was there any consideration in going with Kenny at all?”

Yes, Pete Carroll was asked whether he considered benching Geno Smith for Kenny Pickett during the Raiders’ loss to the Bears on Sunday.

My immediate thought after hearing that question was this — perhaps it’s time some people gave John Schneider a bit more credit?

I won’t hold my breath on that. Smith’s backers seem to have developed a loyalty usually reserved for Taylor Swift fans, or ‘Swifties’. Even now they refuse to cede any ground, only offering couched support of Sam Darnold whilst saying very little about Smith’s struggles in Vegas.

Nothing sums up the absurdity of this group more than their continued talk of Darnold being ‘pressure sensitive’ — the kind of pseudo-intellectual term that has infiltrated the sport these days.

According to PFF, Smith had 215 drop-backs under pressure compared to Darnold’s 263 last season. Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio was 7/13, with Darnold’s at 13/6. Seattle’s new quarterback had the third most big time throws under pressure in 2024, behind only Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. His 11 turnover worthy plays under pressure were two fewer than Smith’s 13.

Two bad games at the end of last season, where there was plenty of blame to go around, created an illusion as to how Darnold performed during a 14-win campaign. Meanwhile, faith in Smith’s credentials as a top-10 quarterback has become such a hill to die on for some it has virtually come to define certain people.

Thus, Schneider became persona non grata for his decision to move on. There’s growing evidence however that he made an inspired move.

Smith has always been a streaky quarterback. Since his especially strong start in 2022, ending after the game in Munich, he’s played 44 games for Seattle and Las Vegas. He has a 62/39 ratio for touchdowns and interceptions. His QBR is a lowly 52.1 since week 10 of 2022. No player has more interceptions in the entire NFL since Smith replaced Russell Wilson.

Smith has thrown seven interceptions in four games this season. Four of his interceptions were thrown when not under pressure — the most in the league when not pressured. His QBR (43.1) is ranked 25th in the league. The Raiders are 1-3 and struggling. Fans are turning quickly, as are former franchise greats.

Nothing about this screams top-10 quarterback, despite the various claims online and the numerous podcasts, tweets and ESPN segments detailing why Seattle’s decision to swap Smith for Darnold was unwise.

I’d also argue there are striking similarities between Smith and Russell Wilson in how they departed the Seahawks. There’s no doubt the very-online ‘Let Russ Cook’ movement contributed to a player feeling increasingly that he should be the focal point of everything. He wanted to be the main man and to play for a preferred coach. Once he got those things, though, it didn’t work out as intended.

Now look at Smith. In a preposterous recent interview with ESPN he claimed he “really didn’t fit the culture” in Seattle, adding, “I finally got my team” upon moving to Las Vegas.

He got to go and play with his preferred coach. “I know what he’s going to bring to the table, and I know that he’s going to mean what he says. That loyalty and honesty mean a lot to me” said Smith — in what felt like a bit of a dig at the situation he left behind.

I’d also suggest, anecdotally, that perhaps the vociferous online support from some sections of the media and Seahawks Twitter (we know Smith is very active on social media) created the same kind of feeling that ‘Let Russ Cook’ did to the mentality of his predecessor.

Having got what he wanted, as with Wilson, it’s already looking like it might go the same way. Take yourself to the AFC West and then watch things crash and burn. He might find that having finally got ‘his team’, that team won’t want him any more unless his performance improves dramatically.

Meanwhile, back in Seattle, Darnold is thriving four games into the season. There’s no guarantee it’ll continue, or that Darnold will take the Seahawks to any kind of promise land in the future. It’s quite difficult at the moment though to not judge Schneider’s quarterback decision very positively.

He traded away a player who is currently struggling, wanted a new contract and turns 35 on the 10th October for a third round pick. He then signed a cheaper 28-year-old quarterback, who doesn’t turn 29 until next June, and that player has hit the ground running. The Seahawks are younger, cheaper and — based on the evidence so far — better at the position.

It doesn’t just stop with the quarterback though. Let’s look at another much discussed move — the DK Metcalf trade. Many suggested this would have a major negative impact on the Seahawks. Losing Metcalf would mean nobody to draw attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, impacting his ability to make plays. The Seahawks would be left with an impotent looking offense.

Smith-Njigba is currently the second most productive receiver in the league. He’s shown absolutely no need to have Metcalf on the field to hold his hand. If it wasn’t for the record-pace of Puka Nacua in LA, Smith-Njigba would be leading the NFL in receiving yards. The pair are the only two receivers averaging 100 yards a game so far. Rather than hold back JSN, he’s thriving.

The Seahawks have 14 completed passes over 20-yards — joint fourth most in the NFL. They have three +40-yard completions, tied for second most. Metcalf has had a solid start to his career in Pittsburgh, especially given Aaron Rodgers’ limitations as a downfield passer these days, but it’s fair to question whether he’s being missed in Seattle — certainly for the $33m a year salary he’s getting from the Steelers.

The Seahawks were able to turn Metcalf into a second round pick (promising rookie Elijah Arroyo) and save a fortune, with the evidence so far that they are not worse off for the decision. Again, isn’t this something the GM should deserve more praise for?

Now let’s do the offensive line. Some people became so irate in March, including within local media, that they absolutely hammered the Seahawks for not signing any veteran interior offensive linemen. We heard how it’d be a catastrophe if they didn’t sign a player like Teven Jenkins (who’s played two snaps for the Browns so far this year) or Mekhi Becton (who played very poorly for the Chargers in weeks two and three, before missing the Giants game).

The Seahawks understandably chose not to outbid the Vikings when they went above and beyond to bring in Will Fries without giving him a medical exam, fresh off recovery from a serious leg injury. Minnesota also signed Ryan Kelly. The general feeling was, why weren’t the Seahawks being aggressive like this?

Well, after four weeks, the Vikings’ line is a disaster. They’ve given up a 13.1% sack rate so far — the fourth highest by any team since data began being collected seven years ago. Kelly is suffering with concussions. Fries has given up eight pressures — one more than Anthony Bradford — with a salary difference of $16m.

The Seahawks’ offensive line meanwhile, while certainly not flawless, seems to have taken a major step forward this year:

Seahawks Pass Protection Rankings:

10th Pressure Rate (31.5%)
9th Pass Block Grade, PFF
13th Pass Block Efficiency, PFF
9th Sacks Allowed pic.twitter.com/iycv01wuxB

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) September 29, 2025

Further improvements will be required in the future and Bradford’s spot at right guard certainly feels less than assured. Yet Schneider’s decision to show restraint in free agency, appoint proper coaches and spend the #18 pick on Grey Zabel is paying dividends so far.

Let’s keep going. What about the appointment of Klint Kubiak to replace Ryan Grubb? This would’ve been a joint venture with the Head Coach but they simply had to get this one right. The catastrophe of the Grubb experiment put a lot of pressure on the Seahawks to not repeat the error. They had to avoid Macdonald being placed with the wrong offensive partner for a second year in a row.

There is still plenty of room for growth on the offense but they have the sixth ranked unit per DVOA after four games. That’s a great start given the amount of change this year. Kubiak’s staff have also done wonders to improve the O-line performance, settle Darnold into his new team and incorporate multiple rookies into impact roles. I’d say they got this one spot on.

Add in the appointment of Mike Macdonald as his hand-picked replacement for Carroll 18 months ago and really, Seattle’s GM deserves a lot more credit than he’s getting.

The point of this piece isn’t to say Schneider doesn’t make mistakes. All GM’s make mistakes. Howie Roseman used the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft on receiver Jalen Raegor. The player taken 22nd overall was Justin Jefferson.

However, Schneider received a not insignificant amount of criticism from fans and media for his moves in the off-season this year. Right now, it looks like he got every big call right. You could even say 2025 was one of Schneider’s best ever off-seasons.

With a speculative tweet earlier today from Ian Rapoport suggesting the Seahawks might be open to trading Riq Woolen, attention now turns to what they might be able to get in return.

Draft compensation is likely to be minimal. Whenever journalists are offering ‘come and get him’ pleas in the media, value is not going to be high. It feels like the Seahawks are ready to move on and will take the best offer they can get.

A deal involving a pick wouldn’t likely get much other than a late rounder. A sixth maybe? Something minimal anyway. A more attractive option could be to find a player-for-player arrangement.

Here’s my suggestion — Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd.

This is a name we’ve discussed before. Lloyd started the season splitting snaps with Ventrell Miller before Jacksonville decided to go with the more experienced player. It’s worth noting that both linebackers played well when they were on the field.

Lloyd’s contract expires in the off-season and the Jaguars have a choice to make down the line. Would they want to pay to keep Lloyd? Is it inevitable next season they just go with Miller, who’d have one year left on his rookie deal?

Jacksonville’s new GM is James Gladstone, a former member of the LA Rams’ front office. The Rams opted not to pay Ernest Jones and instead traded him away to the Titans for a late-round pick swap before his contract year. It felt like a philosophical choice not to give big money to a linebacker. The Rams’ current starting linebackers have cap hits of $1.1m and $973,000. If Gladstone shares Les Snead’s philosophy to not pay for this position, he might think they’re better off going with the cheaper Miller and getting what they can for Lloyd.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are struggling at cornerback. Tyson Campbell has given up the sixth-most receiving yards (138) on downfield passes. The fifth-year veteran is also one of nine cornerbacks to have allowed multiple downfield touchdowns.

Their other starting cornerback, Jarrian Jones, has allowed seven completions for 85 yards on 11 overall passes thrown in his direction. He’s also given up a touchdown.

They’re using Travis Hunter as an occasional corner in specific situations but he’s not a full-time option there, given how many snaps he’s playing on offense.

Would the Jags be prepared to take a look at Woolen? Might they be more prepared to pay a cornerback if it works out, rather than a linebacker?

From the Seahawks perspective it does feel a little bit like Tyrice Knight isn’t fully healthy. He’s been sharing time with Drake Thomas. Is there room for another addition at linebacker? Arguably yes. We saw how important this position is to the Seahawks last season.

A former first round pick, Lloyd has played well this year and last. There’s a bit of an Ernest Jones feel to all of this, where a linebacker is perhaps under-appreciated where he is but can thrive elsewhere. Having more depth and quality at this position might further bolster Seattle’s defense.

So it’s a swap of players both on expiring contracts. Woolen for Lloyd.

(Please note — this article was written before Lloyd had two interceptions and a sack/fumble against the 49ers, so any trade feels decidedly less likely after that. However, at least it shows it wasn’t an insane idea to try and acquire Lloyd!)

Another option could be to see if a package including Woolen might be able to entice the Miami Dolphins. They didn’t force a turnover in their first three games. If they lose to the Jets, there’s a possibility of embracing major change in Miami. Would they consider dealing Jaylen Waddle? Would they rent you Jaelan Phillips? Or Bradley Chubb?

The Saints have needed help at cornerback for a while. Would they consider a swap for one of Rashid Shaheed or Chris Olave?

Trey Hendrickson would obviously be a very attractive addition for the Seahawks (and many other teams). Yet the Bengals would almost certainly want a quality pick to get him — and would be more likely, you’d imagine, to keep him until nearer the deadline. There’s a good chance their season will be over by the time Joe Burrow is healthy again — but sitting at 2-1, surely it’s too soon to make that call? Unless they’re blown away by an offer.

It’s felt for a long time now that Mike Macdonald doesn’t entirely trust Riq Woolen. His dramatically fluctuating play and frustrating moments are occasionally offset by flashes of quality. Combined with his exceptional physical skills, that has bought him more time than others would get.

It feels like time has run out though. The Cardinals game, where he gave away costly penalties, seems to be the final straw.

The report above doesn’t get out unless the Seahawks want it to get out. This is a plea to the league to make an offer.

It’s a shame that it’s come to this but Woolen is an unreliable player playing for a coach running a defense that requires consistency and everyone doing their job to connect things together.

They won’t get much, if anything. Which makes you wonder what happens if offers are not forthcoming. If teams show interest they’ll likely take what they can get and move on.

The bigger question then will be whether there is a corresponding move in the pipeline to add a piece to the Seahawks. Perhaps a pass rusher, linebacker or another weapon.

It’s a ritual for many people. The day after the game you log on to PFF to check the grades. Or if you don’t have a subscription, you see them posted on Twitter or a forum. It’s part and parcel of following your team. PFF grades for years have been cited and discussed. Their usage has become widespread.

According to PFF’s website:

Every primetime NFL TV broadcast, is supported by PFF’s services in one form or the other. College TV broadcasts are rapidly following suit. NBC’s Emmy-winning Sunday Night Football franchise, has led the charge using PFF’s services to not only prep SNF analyst & PFF owner, Cris Collinsworth – but also to supports SNF’s research dept., studio programming, graphics team and VOD content.

The teams also use the data and work with PFF for their scouting services.

Are we right, however, to cling to their grades as much as we do?

Over the last couple of seasons I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched a game only to be baffled by the way they’ve graded things. It’s as if they’ve watched a totally different game.

For example, we could all see the major impact Ernest Jones Jr had on Seattle’s defense last year. According to PFF though, he didn’t play well at all. Twice he graded in the 40’s and five times in the 50’s. They believe he only had one great game (the loss to the Rams) and two good games (the rematch with the Rams and the first game against Arizona).

It didn’t make any sense but this example is only scratching the surface.

Leonard Williams finished last season on an absolute tear. Arguably, nobody was playing better than he was at his position. Yet if you average out his grades for the final five games of the season, he gets a 73.2. It’s not bad by any means but hardly seems to fairly represent just how impactful and disruptive he was.

This has followed into this season. To my eye at least — and I’m sure many will agree — Williams has been a terror for opponents. He has three sacks in four games, 11 pressures and five hurries. According to ESPN, he has a 48% run-stop win-rate (good for sixth in the league). He clearly looks like Seattle’s best player, at least on defense.

However, PFF reckons he had one very good game against Pittsburgh (82.5) and has otherwise been ‘OK’. His other three games get an average grade of 67.3

I’m sure people will try to explain this away by saying perhaps PFF is accounting for penalties (he’s had three for the season) or missed tackles (also three). Yet I feel like I know what I’m watching — a great player, playing his best ball, bossing the line of scrimmage and playing at an elite level.

Don’t take my word for it. Mike Macdonald said on the radio today, “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.”

Well, according to PFF, there are 15 defensive tackles playing better than he is. That includes powerhouse stars such as Teair Tart, Tim Settle, Eddie Goldman, Poona Ford and Jowon Briggs.

That simply doesn’t pass the smell test in the slightest.

Let’s move on to Josh Jobe — another player who looked like he played very well against the Steelers and Saints, only to receive grades of 59.6 and 48.8 respectively. I tweeted out during the game last week that there can’t be many cornerbacks playing better than he is through three games. Silly me, there’s actually 47 cornerbacks playing better than he is according to PFF.

Now onto Sam Darnold. PFF had him graded as the top quarterback in football after the hammering of New Orleans. I thought his performance against Arizona was his best so far — a complete performance if you will. He made smart plays, he had a big run for a first down, he had a game-winning drive including a big-time throw to set up the field goal and he didn’t turn the ball over.

Apparently none of this matters because actually this was his worst performance of the season according to PFF by a considerable margin. He was graded at a 73.6. For comparison, he got an 82.6 against the 49ers in week one.

As Brady Henderson noted today, Darnold was 7/8 for 144 yards and a touchdown on passes 10+ yards downfield last night. He had a 69.2% completion percentage. His QBR was a 75.1 (as an average mark, that score would have him fourth in the NFL). Brian Baldinger discussed some of his ‘perfect’ throws in a video today. Even if you want to ding Darnold for the three sacks conceded, which seems unfair given on at least one of them the left tackle just got beat off the edge, is that really enough to undermine all the good things about his performance to warrant easily his worst grade of the season?

Meanwhile, Devon Witherspoon gave up eight completions on eight targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF data. When he was thrown at, the quarterback rating was 147.4. He missed a tackle too. His grade? 78.1. They are saying he had a better game than Darnold.

What are we doing here?

It’s getting to the point where I’m starting to doubt what I’ve seen every game. Instead of going all-in on what I think I saw — from Darnold, Williams and others — I’m now seeing the PFF grades and assuming they’re seeing something I haven’t.

I can’t be alone in doing that — and I’m really beginning to think we give PFF too much attention, too much respect and too much credence.

One of the big problems I have is with the wide range of the grades on offer. How can you grade from 0-100? Surely it should be a far smaller range. How can Derrion Kendrick be a 90.3 against the Saints but Jobe, who also appeared to play well, be a 48.8? Kendrick gave up 50% of his targets, Jobe gave up 63.6%. Is a 40-point difference per PFF really justified?

Also, how do they work out the overall grades? As I noted on Wednesday, the Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has been given a massive 90.1 overall grade through four games. However, here are his game-by-game grades so far:

Alabama A&M — 94.1
Arkansas State — 71.4
Ole Miss — 69.7
Memphis — 78.7

How does one great performance against lowly Alabama A&M prop up the three other games? Further to that, Green leads all draft eligible quarterbacks for turnover worthy plays (seven in four games). How does that still warrant an elite grade?

You can go further. Who is even delivering the grades? Why are they required to rush through their observations to get the grades out ‘asap’ rather than taking their time? Do we really need the grades the next morning? Can’t it wait at least 48 hours? Why is there not more of an explanation behind some of the more head-scratching grades?

There have been numerous high-profile layoffs from the company and this article from last year titled, ‘Pro Football Focus’s Dysfunction Comes at the Worst Possible Time‘ lifts the lid on a company that has had some struggles at the top recently. It begs the question, can you trust what you’re being told?

I’m as much to blame as anyone for drawing attention to these grades. I share them, subscribe to PFF and get a lot of use out of their data collection systems. For the record, I really appreciate and respect a lot of what they continue to do. Yet I’m starting to think we need to reassess how we approach game grades.

I thought Sam Darnold was great against Arizona and refuse to accept it was his worst performance of the season. I think Leonard Williams has been an elite performer since week 12 last year and has arguably been the best defensive tackle in the league during this period. I refuse to accept he’s basically been ‘decent’ instead.

Do we need to kick the PFF habit? Do we need to pay less attention to their grades? Should we resist the urge to share and debate their scores as much as we do? I think the answer is yes. We should.

Yes, that was a frustrating fourth quarter. The Seahawks had complete control of the game, dominated the Cardinals for more than three quarters and yet somehow found a way to nearly lose.

However, I also think it’s important to focus on what should be the main takeaway — the performance of Sam Darnold.

The quarterback had a brilliant game — showing great touch, accuracy, poise, control and execution in the key moments. It was almost worth going through all of the unnecessary tension and stress to see Darnold just say to the team, ‘don’t worry — I’ve got this‘ — before delivering a critical 22-yard pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to set-up the game winning kick from Jason Myers.

This is the kind of performance that will instil confidence in team mates, coaches and fans. It’s not that Darnold needed a game like this — but it certainly doesn’t do any harm.

On top of this, kudos to Smith-Njigba for finding a way to make big plays at the end given the Cardinals did a good job keeping him out of the box score for so long. Myers also deserves credit for nailing a high-pressure kick after a critical miss moments earlier.

The fact is the Seahawks were by far the better team and flirted with throwing away all their good work through sloppiness. Riq Woolen penalties, Devon Witherspoon getting beat in coverage, the missed kick, JSN’s hold in the red-zone to nullify Zach Charbonnet’s second touchdown, Ken Walker’s habit of running into negative plays.

However, they didn’t lose. The Rams were in the exact same situation against the Eagles last Sunday — dominant for three quarters then staring at defeat. They lost, after similarly chucking away a winning position.

I’m also going to defend Klint Kubiak because he strangely is getting a decent amount of flak for ‘conservative play-calling’. With 5:44 left in the game and with a seven-point lead, this was Kubiak’s sequence:

1st down — incomplete pass
2nd down — four-yard run
3rd down — 36-yard completed pass

This isn’t conservative that late in the game — it’s pretty aggressive. It’s understandable after that why he called three more runs. They were in scoring position, needed to kill some clock and a sack would’ve pushed them out of field goal range. If Myers makes his kick, it’s a well managed situation and they win more comfortably.

There’s also a decent chance the Head Coach made the call to run the ball in that situation.

Had Kubiak called one or two passes after the 36-yard completion and Darnold was then sacked, people would’ve complained even more.

It’s also worth saying that when they needed a big play-call to win the game, he dialled up the 22-yard completion to JSN. This time Myers made his kick. So rather than criticise Kubiak — I think he should be praised. Seattle had a balanced attack, had 155 rushing yards and if it wasn’t for the flag on JSN or key defenders having a rough fourth quarter — this would’ve felt like a very accomplished game from the offense.

And it’s Kubiak’s offense that Darnold, the star of the day, is excelling in.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

The last time the Seahawks lost a game to the Arizona Cardinals, Alex Collins and Deejay Dallas were Seattle’s primary running backs.  Russell Wilson’s finger was still mending and he had just a few weeks of his Seahawks career left.

In the seven matchups since then, the Seahawks have won by an average of 8.7 points — that includes a meaningless one-point win in 2023 when Matt Prater missed what would be a game-winning field goal try as time expired.

It is fair to say that if there is one team the Seahawks have handled easily the last three seasons, it is the Cardinals.

Yet we know the Seahawks will not be taking this game lightly.  Having already lost a division game to San Francisco, they will be eager to bank a win that could potentially mean a lot later in the season.

What have we seen from the Cardinals in three games so far this year?

In going 2-1, they have had a lead in the fourth quarter in all three games but have been unable to ice the game by running the ball or sustaining drives.  This has burned them once and made their two wins much less comfortable than they should have been.

On defense, they are currently fifth in the NFL for points allowed but are 30th overall in passing yards allowed and 23rd overall in total yards allowed.  They have a ‘bend don’t break’ aesthetic to them and opponents have made some odd choices at times (the Saints gave Alvin Kamara only 13 touches in Week One and the Panthers chased the game a bit in Week Two with a crazy 55/19 pass/run split) that helped support those numbers.

The Cardinals offense is a very strange animal at the moment.  Their running game suffered a massive blow last week with James Connor getting injured.  Kyler Murray is avoiding throwing to his Wide Receivers at a ridiculous pace and comes across as half disinterested and half happy to throw his Offensive Coordinator under the bus when asked about it.

His average depth of target this year is a whopping 20% lower than his career average.

Those numbers are evidence that Murray is not pushing the ball down the field much and prefers choosing to check down at a high rate through three games.

A key note may lie in the offensive line being a bit of a train wreck so far this season:

It may get even worse for this game, with starters Johnson and Brown listed as Questionable to play and their backups (Kelvin Beachum and Will Hernandez) also listed as Questionable.

The Seahawks, with a great Defensive Line, speed and tackling at the second level and their efficient yet explosive offense would appear to match up very well with the Cardinals.

What has to happen to extend the win streak to eight games?

Bottle up Kyler Murray

We are very aware that Kyler has a skill with his legs to either extend plays or get yards when the pass rush starts to close in.  He still has that skill.

In the absence of Connor as a runner that can get the tough yards and as a pressure-release valve to dump the ball off to, the importance of keeping Kyler boxed in a bit will be greater.  If his first option is unavailable and there is not an easy target available, he gets antsy and can dance himself into sacks or other mistakes – if the pass rush is able to form that “horseshoe” around him.

The Seahawks deployed this strategy very well last year.  In two games, Murray only had 25 yards on five rushes.  He was not able to materially affect the game in a way that he is accustomed to.

How did they do it?  Strength up the middle.  It is great to have speedy pass rushers coming in from the edges.  But a particularly mobile and agile player like Murray more often gets bottled up when the interior defenders clog up the middle, moving the pocket backwards and not allowing him free lanes to move forward while he searches for targets.  And Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams have been outstanding so far this season.

Speed at the second level helps as well.  Ernest Jones, Tyrice Knight and the safeties can close quickly if Murray does get through.

The Seahawks will also have Devon Witherspoon available and we know how he can affect Murray with his speed and instincts.

The Cardinals Offensive Line is battered.

James Connor is not there to be a safety blanket.

More of this game is on Murray’s shoulders than normal.

If the Seahawks defense can keep him contained, this game has a very good chance of going their way.

Win the Tight End Battle

Through three games of the NFL schedule, the Cardinals and Seahawks are two of the worst teams at defending Tight Ends.

Their numbers conceded are similar and they both have played San Francisco and New Orleans.  I would give the Seahawks a slight edge since the Cardinals did not have to play against George Kittle and the Seahawks have also played Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals gave up a near career-best day to Ja’Tavian Sanders.

Who should the Seahawks match up A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo with on defense?

Take your pick.  Linebackers Akeen Davis-Gaither and Mack Wilson have given up 173 passing yards between the two of them and have four missed tackles.  Safety Jalen Thompson has conceded 156 yards and a 102.8 Quarterback Rating in coverage.

The Cardinals’ defenders are making it easy for Quarterbacks and Tight Ends.  All of the highlights you see against them this season are not routes run by Tight Ends with any degree of trickery or precision.  Juwan Johnson of the Saints was literally running slants and was getting chunks of yards every single time he was targeted.

I could easily see the Seahawks attacking the middle of the field liberally with Sam Darnold throwing well-timed quick strike passes to the Tight Ends until the Cardinals are forced to make some kind of adjustment.

This could literally be an area where the ‘throw to set up the run’ strategy becomes a weapon the Seahawks employ on offense.  If there are so many chances with Tight Ends running open, that will create some pliability on the defense, and Zach Charbonnet will have chances to run roughshod like he did in Week Fourteen last year with a career-best 134 yards and two touchdowns.  Ken Walker can also take advantage of gaps in the flat for dump-off passes with the Tight Ends clearing the zone.

On the other side, Tyrice Knight is the sore spot in coverage on defense for the Seahawks.  He currently has allowed a perfect completion percentage, 117 yards and a 118.7 Quarterback rating in coverage.  He is far better moving forward than backward, like a lot of Linebackers.  It is no wonder that Drake Thomas has cut into his snaps on defense at times.  If the Seahawks allow Knight to be isolated in coverage – particularly with McBride – that will be an issue.

Trey McBride is the Cardinals’ biggest weapon and Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks need to have a plan for him.  As we talked about above, Kyler Murray targets him far more than the Wide Receivers.  With all due respect to Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson, nobody moves the chains like McBride.

In Week Twelve last year, McBride burned the Seahawks for 12 catches for 133 yards and eight first downs.  Two weeks later, the Seahawks cut those numbers down to 7 catches for 70 yards and four first downs.

How did they do it?  They trusted their Defensive Backs to win one-on-one and gave McBride extra attention.

Earlier in the game, Ernest Jones had dropped into an underneath spot and picked Kyler Murray when he did not see him.

A minute later, Murray is looking for McBride and sees Jones drifting back again and has to go to another receiver.

Have a look at the play.

The Seahawks bracket McBride with Julian Love and Ernest Jones.  Murray still has the sting of the interception a minute prior and turns away from McBride and makes an ill-advised throw to Zay Jones that Coby Bryant undercuts and picks off.

If the Seahawks can keep bracketing McBride and perhaps giving him a little bit of an ‘accidental’ pick when he runs a crossing route away from his primary defender, they can work with the pass rush in keeping the ball out of McBride’s hands.  No doubt this will greatly diminish the Cardinals’ ability to move the ball downfield.

Before I get into this week’s college football scouting breakdown, be sure to check out my latest spot with Puck Sports discussing the Seahawks:

Another week, another underwhelming watch

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to generate excitement about the 2026 draft class. I scanned a mock draft on CBS this week. It felt like a bunch of names thrown at the wall, hoping some may eventually stick as the process goes on.

I can’t remember a year where there’s so little to talk about in terms of round one. People might be tempted to point to the 2013 class. By the end of September 2012, Geno Smith was playing well enough at West Virginia to feel like he could be the #1 overall pick. People were celebrating the play of Utah’s Star Lotulelei (and he only fell in the end due to medical concerns). You had a number of players who were big names — Robert Woods, Tyrann Mathieu, Jarvis Jones, Luke Joeckel, Chance Warmack, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, Tavon Austin, Kenny Vaccaro, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and others.

The fact that most of these players ended up being NFL flops isn’t the point. There were players to enjoy and talk about in college football. Some went as early as expected while others (Smith, Woods, Mathieu) didn’t for differing reasons.

This year it’s incredibly challenging to work out who actually justifies a discussion about their placement in round one. It’s a barren desert. I think there are only two players — Caleb Downs and Spencer Fano — who you can say with any certainty will go early. Keldric Faulk could be another but his play is stop-start. Avieon Terrell is one of the few players to not tank his stock at Clemson so far. Reuben Bain Jr is getting a lot of attention at Miami but his game is predicated on power and not twitch.

The quarterbacks look thin and could get thinner (more on that in a bit). There are no obvious top-end receivers who you just know are destined for round one.

I don’t know what to make of this, other than to say this has so far been the trickiest year to know who to write about. It could mean two things. One, we see players promoted above where they’d otherwise go. For example, I really like Penn State guard Vega Ioane. Does he end up going 20 spots higher than he would do because of this class? Two, does it mean a player like LaNorris Sellers — who really has no business declaring for the NFL based on what we’ve seen so far (more on that in a moment) — turns pro and ends up being a top-five pick, maybe even the #1 overall pick, based on physical potential?

I do wonder if ahead of the trade deadline this year we might see more activity than usual if teams also feel this way about the draft. If not, it might lead to more veteran trades in the off-season.

I’m going to write-up my notes from last weekend as usual and share my thoughts but this is a unique looking draft class and not in a good way.

Will the Clemson players even turn pro?

Going into the season most draft pundits considered TJ Parker and Peter Woods potential top-10 picks. Some named Cade Klubnik QB1 for 2026. With the Tigers now at 1-3 for the season and with all three players playing within themselves, what does that mean for the future?

Dabo Swinney in the past has done a good job keeping everyone together. A disappointing season would typically lead to a call for everyone to stick around and leave on a brighter note. However, there now has to be thoughts about Swinney’s future. Does he continue in his role if they keep losing?

There’s no doubt though that with the exception of the aforementioned Terrell and other players like Will Heldt, the big names have tanked their stock so far. Woods again looked like he was going through the motions against Syracuse and Parker just doesn’t seem to be playing with any intensity. Neither looked like first round picks last weekend. I never bought into the Klubnik hype as a high pick and I think he’s been found-out as a not-likely option for the NFL.

Oklahoma defenders shine

Auburn struggled to pass-protect all game against Sooners, giving up a record-breaking 10 sacks in the game. Two Oklahoma defensive tackles caught my eye.

Gracen Halton is a lighter DT (approx 6-2, 295lbs) with good pass rush moves, agility and the quickness to shake blocks. There were some reps where he was unstopabble. Damonic Williams is bigger (6-1, 320lbs) and more orthodox but he plays with a lot of fire. He clearly is all about football in his interviews and he plays that way. Both were consistently impactful and while they may be mid-round type picks at best, they both deserve to be on your radar.

I wasn’t impressed with Auburn left tackle Xavier Chaplin. Tony Pauline really likes him and has talked him up but I see a lot of issues. His conditioning was a problem late in the game where he looked exhausted, to the point he seemed to give up a false start because he was blowing so hard. He’s a waist-bender and while he locks on well in contact and can finish when engaged, his footwork is tough to watch at times and his agility to mirror is suspect. He looked to me like the kind of tackle who will struggle on a Sunday.

Quarterback notes

I thought I’d share a note on each of the main draft eligible QB’s. Some of these will be short, some long.

John Mateer (Oklahoma)

The game against Auburn wasn’t plain sailing for Mateer but when the game was on the line he delivered. One big drive won the day, with an outstanding deep throw to the right sideline delivered with perfect touch and accuracy — before his explosive running ability led to a decisive score.

If the Sooners kept winning with Mateer playing the way he was, he would’ve had a legit shot at the Heisman and his draft stock was on the brink of exploding. In a down year he was showing legit traits that will interest teams. Combined with his personality and leadership, there’s every chance he was going to be a high pick. His team-mates love him, his interviews are perfect and he leaves everything on the field. He’s got an arm, he’s creative and he’s a great athlete. There’s an X-factor here that generally gets you drafted early. The comparisons to Baker Mayfield are not outrageous.

However, it’s been revealed this week that he’s having surgery after suffering a broken hand. He’s expected to miss a month but who knows if it’ll be longer. That will temper things. Oklahoma are not guaranteed to keep winning and he might not be walking back into a playoff tilt. The big question now is — is he more likely to return next year to try and achieve major success at OU? Mateer only turns 22 next April so he’s not an older player like Garrett Nussmeier.

My hunch is this injury makes it more likely he doesn’t turn pro. This is only his second season as a starter in college. A full season and emerging as a possible QB1 while leading Oklahoma to a great season could’ve pushed him to the NFL. Now, I’d say it’s more likely we see him back with the Sooners in 2026.

Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)

There wasn’t much to learn from a contest against SE Louisiana but Nussmeier did what he had to in the game. For me there’s no doubt he remains QB1. His technical ability is just on a different level to any of the other quarterbacks eligible for 2026. He has the most big time throws so far this season (11).

However, despite being a better runner than most realise — plus a much more accomplished thrower on the run than anyone’s giving him credit for — he doesn’t have the major physical upside to feel like he has a great ceiling. I think Nussmeier can be excellent in the right offense. Put him with Shanahan, McVay, O’Connell (and maybe Kubiak) and I think he can shine. His execution within structure and ability to throw with anticipation could make him very good very quickly. Throw him onto a bad team with a poor offensive schemer and he might fold like a pack of cards if you expect him to elevate everything with his mere presence.

At the moment I’d say he has a strong opportunity to go in round one but LSU have some big games coming up. He needs to avoid doing what he did against Florida and forcing passes. Of all the quarterback prospects though, he has the biggest collection of NFL throws on tape.

LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)

In terms of physical talent, nobody comes close to Sellers. He can drive the ball downfield better than anyone else. He can also throw with unique air and touch and still generate a lot of distance on his throws. Purely on traits, Sellers is on a different level.

However, he just isn’t playing well enough. As you could see against Missouri last weekend, there are some great throws and some mind-boggling errors. His big time throw to turnover worthy play ratio is 6:4 in 2025. His QBR is the third worst among QB’s I’m tracking this year (53.7) and his EPA is appalling (6.8).

It is so clear that this is a player who needs more time on the field. I’m concerned that the poor quality of the 2026 draft and the NFL’s endless need for quarterbacks will push him towards turning pro when he isn’t ready. Then he’ll end up on a bad team and probably failing. He could be the #1 pick in 2027 if he develops properly. I hope he plays the long game.

Carson Beck (Miami)

I think you just have to say good luck to anyone drafting him with a view to starting at the next level. Beck is a tease. He makes good throws, has shown an ability to extend at times that I didn’t know he had. He’s going to end up helping a strong looking Miami to another good season. Yet he just can’t help but make really bad decisions leading to turnovers and/or near turnovers.

He did it again against Florida. He’s going to be a liability at the next level with his propensity to make ill-advised throws. His QBR is strong (81.5) but the mistakes have continued from last season. He doesn’t see the field well enough and is throwing into dangerous areas constantly.

Taylen Green (Arkansas)

I’ve now watched all of his games from 2025 so far. Tony Pauline and Dane Brugler reckon the league has its eye on Green and you can see why. He’s a big player — listed at around 6-6 and 225lbs. He looks a bit like Colin Kaepernick. He’s very capable of throwing on the run, he attacks the middle of the field with his arm, he can run around to extend or make plays with his legs and he never looks frantic — he always appears calm in or out of the pocket. He can deliver big throws into tight windows and attack downfield. His touch throws on a deeper range are delivered nicely. He has plus traits.

However, there are too many turnover worthy plays. He had too many reckless passes in his most recent game against Memphis and the two interceptions he threw were bloody awful. He has seven TWP’s in four games which is simply too many. Green has thrown 28 interceptions in three-and-a-bit seasons as a starter. That’s not good enough.

I’d also argue he hasn’t elevated either Boise State or Arkansas. Kaepernick propelled himself into the early second round range after a 13-1 final season at Nevada, including ending a 24-game winning streak for Kellen Moore and Chris Petersen’s Boise State. Green is 16-13 for his two teams in the last three seasons and Arkansas’ next three games are Notre Dame, Tennessee and Texas A&M. He could have a .500 record easily by the end of this run.

The massive void for talent and the desperation for quarterbacks will likely keep Green firmly on the NFL radar because the alternatives are not great and he does carry a lot of upside. It’s very easy to imagine a good coach working with him to fix the decision making and really promote his physical tools. Get it right and you could be on to a winner. There’s a lot more upside and potential here than with Drew Allar, for example, because of his running ability and general mobility.

Here’s another thing to note. He leads all of the 2026 eligible quarterbacks for QBR (90.5) and EPA (41.9). That isn’t going to be ignored given the increasing importance of analytics in the league. A reminder of what we talked about earlier this year. Quarterbacks with a QBR above 80 have often gone early. Between 2021-2025, this is where players with a +80 QBR have been drafted:

Round One — 14
Round Two — 1
Round Three — 4
Round Four — 1
Later rounds — 2

It’s worth noting that the two players taken later on were Kurtis Rourke (recovering from an injury, playing in a QB friendly system) and Will Howard. Ian Book was taken in round four — a player with limited physical upside and picked way earlier than he should’ve been — possibly due to the data. Among the round three players taken was Seattle’s selection of Jalen Milroe.

The point is — when you are big, athletic and have a good QBR, this has been a consistent recipe to go early in the draft.

When you consider Green’s physical talent and upside, teams might be willing to overlook the high number of risky and ill-advised throws to shoot for potential. He turns 23 in October so turning pro next year is more likely for him compared to say John Mateer or LaNorris Sellers. If neither of those players turn pro, don’t be surprised if Green goes a lot earlier than people currently think. He needs to play better though — and Arkansas have to stop throwing away games.

A final note on Green relating to PFF. They are grading him very highly (90.1) but can someone explain to me why he’s getting a 90.1 grade? Here are his game-to-game grades for the season so far:

Alabama A&M — 94.1
Arkansas State — 71.4
Ole Miss — 69.7
Memphis — 78.7

How does that equate to 90.1 overall? Make it make sense. It’s as if one really good performance against Alabama A&M is doing all of the heavy lifting.

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

I found it really difficult to judge Mendoza against Illinois, my first real look at him this year. Illinois played very poorly and the RPO-heavy system he’s in is beyond friendly.

Mendoza leads the NCAA for completion percentage (75.2%) which is indicative of the system he’s in. Games against Oregon and Penn State will make for good opportunities to study Mendoza closely but I’m not convinced we’re going to get a great pro-feel for his upside in this offense with the way it operated on Saturday. His QBR (84.5) is second only to Arkansas’ Green.

Drew Allar (Penn State)

He’s played really poorly so far this season. He’s been inaccurate, he’s not throwing with enough anticipation and his mobility is stiff and awkward. He’s thrown one single big time throw so far, despite Penn State’s cupcake schedule. He has the worst QBR among the top draft eligible quarterbacks (38.8) and the second worst EPA (5.3). At the moment he doesn’t look remotely close to being a high draft pick. He has to play a lot better than we’ve seen so far in 2025.

Cade Klubnik (Clemson)

As with Allar, based on what we’ve seen so far you can’t draft Klubnik. He’s thrown bad interceptions, not elevated his team, doesn’t have big physical tools and simply doesn’t look very good. Other lesser-known quarterbacks have outplayed him. His QBR is second worst among draft eligible quarterbacks (38.8) but on the plus side — his EPA (which is still the worst among QB’s) is no longer in the negative (he’s shifted it up to 1.4).

Sawyer Robertson (Baylor)

He’s big, athletic and has a good arm — but there’s just a real vibe of ‘good not great’ about Robertson. He’s also making too many bad throws — six turnover worthy plays in four games, including three interceptions in his last two games. There’s a lot of upside potential here but I don’t think, so far, he’s pushed himself into very early round contention. To his credit, he does have 11 big time throws — joint most with Nussmeier.

Sam Leavitt (Arizona State)

He reminds me a bit of Brock Purdy. He’s not the biggest but he’s shifty and can move around. There was a really smart play against Baylor on Saturday where he navigated through a collapsing pocket, kept his eyes downfield and threw with accuracy on the move despite having to put his body in an unorthodox position to throw. It was very impressive. So was a big scramble up the middle — dodging defenders for a decent gain. He has that frustrating (for opponents) ability to make things happen when he sets off. It’s fun to watch.

His arm is surprisingly good in that he can generate a lot of distance, if not a lot of revs or torque. Accuracy wise he can make smart completions on a short and mid-range to move the sticks. As a plus facilitator, you can imagine him driving an offense and being quite productive.

He’s making too many mistakes though — and he’s another quarterback this year attempting passes that have you watching through your fingers. He has six turnover worthy plays so far, second most behind Arkansas’ Green. Against Baylor he was really lucky not to throw two horrendous redzone interceptions. That would’ve taken six points off the board (two field goals were kicked instead) in a game Arizona State won 27-24.

For me he should go the distance with Arizona State and not declare for the 2026 draft. He only turns 21 in December and there should be no rush to turn pro. He’s a fun player but has to minimise the mistakes.

Haynes King (Georgia Tech)

If you want a quarterback who’s going to give you absolutely everything as a runner and passer, King’s your man. He has consistently elevated Georgia Tech when he’s on the field. They should’ve beaten Georgia last year and they’re unbeaten so far this season. King drags his team to victory and he limits mistakes — he hasn’t thrown a single turnover worthy pass so far. I’m not sure he has quite enough upside as a technical or physical thrower of the football to be a NFL starter but it won’t be for the lack of trying.

Quarterback numbers to know so far

Big time throws

Garrett Nussmeier — 11
Sawyer Robertson — 11
Darian Mensah — 10
Sam Leavitt — 8
Dante Moore — 7
John Mateer — 7
Byrum Brown — 7
LaNorris Sellers — 6
Behren Morton — 6
Taylen Green — 5
Cade Klubnik — 5
Carson Beck — 4
Haynes King — 3
Fernando Mendoza — 3
Drew Allar — 1

Turnover worthy plays

Taylen Green — 7
Sam Leavitt — 6
Sawyer Robertson — 6
Darian Mensah — 5
Garrett Nussmeier — 4
John Mateer — 4
LaNorris Sellers — 4
Cade Klubnik — 3
Byrum Brown — 3
Behren Morton — 2
Drew Allar — 2
Carson Beck — 2
Dante Moore — 1
Fernando Mendoza — 1
Haynes King — 0

QBR

Taylen Green — 90.5
Fernando Mendoza — 84.5
Dante Moore — 83.7
Carson Beck — 81.5
Haynes King — 76.8
Sawyer Robertson — 75.7
Garrett Nussmeier — 75.2
John Mateer — 74.2
Darian Mensah — 72.5
Behren Morton — 62.9
Byrum Brown — 62.1
Sam Leavitt — 60.9
LaNorris Sellers — 53.7
Cade Klubnik — 46.8
Drew Allar — 38.8

EPA

Taylen Green — 41.9
Darian Mensah — 26.3
Sawyer Robertson — 24.4
John Mateer — 22.9
Garrett Nussmeier — 22.0
Fernando Mendoza — 21.9
Sam Leavitt — 20.3
Dante Moore — 19.4
Carson Beck — 17.9
Haynes King — 17.6
Behren Morton — 11.2
Byrum Brown — 11.0
LaNorris Sellers — 6.8
Drew Allar — 5.3
Cade Klubnik — 1.4

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