Author: Rob Staton (Page 2 of 395)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Curtis Allen’s First Quarter 2024 Seahawks Report Card

October 3, 2024 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Record:  3-1

Thoughts

This team has shown growth, heart, grit and determination under new Head Coach Mike Macdonald.  Even though some old Seahawks ghosts still linger (a porous O-line and bad tackling in the run game) there has been significant development in both the offensive and defensive structures, allowing talented players to shine.  Winning the three games they should win this quarter will no doubt pay dividends when they face tougher opponents down the stretch.

MVP

1. ) Geno Smith

The passing game in this new offense has been a sight to see under Smith so far.  He’s getting the ball out quickly without sacrificing longer downfield throws.

The traditional counting stats are extremely good:  1,182 yards on a sparkling 72.3% completion percentage.  His 57 Passing First Downs lead the NFL.  Last year at this time, he had 45.  Who are the beneficiaries of the growth?  Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have 13 more first downs this season than last year.

In other words, Smith is getting the ball to his playmakers more.

He has accomplished this despite shaky line play.  Smith is facing a 25.1% Pressure Rate which is down from 30.5% at this time last season.

What is the difference in the rate drop?  Smith himself.  He has run sixteen times and picked up eight first downs with his feet.  Last season?  Eight runs for zero first downs.  If he decides to stay in the pocket instead of running in half of those attempts, his pressure rate almost certainly rises to exactly last year’s rate.

Put another way, he is helping himself with the pass rush.

There are only three questions with Smith at this point:  Can he stay healthy behind that line?  Can he stay consistently excellent?  And the biggest of all, can he win a game in the playoffs?

2.) Boye Mafe

2023 saw him break out in a fine way and establish himself as a bright young star on the Seahawks’ defense.  This year, he has taken another big step forward onto the NFL stage and is making his presence felt on a consistent basis in games.

After three games he was on pace to nearly double his sack and pressure totals from last year, double his QB knock own and tackle for loss numbers and triple his QB hurries.

His 2024 numbers are up there among league superstars such as Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and Aidan Hutchinson.  PFF also has him graded at 75.6 overall, which is showing he is not a one-trick pony.

Mike Macdonald has constantly talked about Mafe becoming a true three-down player.  He is well on his way.

The question for Mafe will be can he be consistent in his presence?  After his Seahawks-record sack per game pace last year was snapped, he went the next five games without a sack and only recorded four pressures in that span.

3.) Derick Hall

There is no need to compare Hall’s numbers this year to last year’s.  He has already beaten them all.  Not quarter to quarter.  For the whole season.  He has four sacks in four games, a forced fumble, he’s just outside the top-10 in the NFL in pressures and sports a 76.2 PFF grade.

Hall has proven to be a near-perfect bookend complement to Mafe.  The Seahawks now have that rare gem of dual threats that can provide pressure without blitzing at a crazy rate.

His progress was evident in Training Camp this year but he has applied every bit of that energy and skill when the games count.

We know that Hall is a powerful beast of an Edge.  But he has shown he has more to his game, with some speed and bend, particularly in his two-sack game against the Dolphins in Week Three.

Slipping around a Tight End and then blowing by a Left Guard who has pulled and has five steps to pick up speed is impressive indeed, as is the closing speed from the hash to wallop the Quarterback and end the half with authority.

This is the beginning of something beautiful.  The Seahawks have team control of Hall for 2025 and 2026.

Honorable Mentions: Riq Woolen, Leonard Williams

Rookie Of the Quarter

1.) Byron Murphy

It is no contest. Murphy has been the most impactful rookie by quite a margin.

Teams have shown Murphy one of the ultimate signs of respect immediately.  And by immediately, I mean in the preseason — double-teaming him with regularity.  This is on a team with Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Hankins, not to mention the pass rushers outside.

And for good reason:

It would appear the hamstring injury he suffered is not serious and the Seahawks are just taking precautions with their top pick. Rightly so.  His future in this league is huge.

2.) Tyrice Knight

Knight is a perfect example of Mike Macdonald’s vision and coaching style.  He has demonstrated his skills quickly, fit into the defense and produced, and yet Macdonald openly knows and says that he has potential to be much, much better when he develops his game instincts.  He is doing that with live reps in regular season games.

With Jerome Baker having a nagging hamstring injury, Macdonald turned to Knight almost immediately in training camp as his fill-in, preferring Knight over more experienced Linebackers like John Rhattigan and Drake Thomas.

In the first four games of the season, Knight has a TFL and 22 regular tackles in two starts and has been a solid if unspectacular player for them with 59.9 PFF grade.

3.) AJ Barner

The Tight End has gone from not showing much on the practice field in camp to being a very nice emerging piece of the offense in both the run and pass game.

His first two games were primarily helping on blocking and special teams.

But the next two were impactful in the air as well.  Five catches for four first downs to go with that blocking – exactly what you want of your second Tight End.  Not to mention a very nice touchdown catch where he navigates his way through traffic to give his quarterback an easy target:

17 catches, 172 yards and a touchdown to go with solid blocking and special teams play.

Barner’s numbers?  No.  Will Dissly’s 2023 numbers in Seattle.  That is the bar to clear.

Barner is on his way already with 5 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown.  Dissly’s cap hit last year was $9.2 million.  Barner’s this year is $984k.

Successes

1.) Winning With a Whole New Coaching Staff

Forget the soft first quarter schedule for a moment.  This is the NFL and games won are hard-fought and deserved.

Just consider:  The Seahawks hired a first-time Head Coach and he brought in first-time Coordinators in all three phases of the team.  The coach picked coordinators he had not extensively worked with previously. They are 3-1. 

What is more, this coaching staff has the team playing hard, tough, confident football.  Adversity has come and been met.

Both the Offense and Defense have demonstrated clear progress from the previous regime and you can see their aims and goals coming into focus.

You can also see there are things that need improvement but the green shoots of progress are too plentiful to ignore.

2.) Getting Pressure Without Constant Blitzing

Currently, the Seahawks lead the NFL in Pressure Rate with a fantastic 35.9% number.

They are accomplishing that despite being right in the middle of the pack on Blitzing Rate, at fifteenth place with 23.9% of plays blitzed.

The beauty of it is it is a team effort.  Several players are producing pressure.

Derick Hall, Boye Mafe and Leonard Williams have enough pressures to place them in the top 20 defenders.  No other team has three of the top 20 players  and only Minnesota and Dallas have two in that group.

Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed are also providing pressure.  That makes blitzers like Devon Witherspoon and Tyrell Dodson all that more effective when their number is called.

Uchenna Nwosu has not even entered the picture yet.

Also, there is still untapped potential in this group.  Macdonald has yet to really go all mad scientist with his defensive lineup scheming.  They are so talented and have such a firm grip on their basic assignments, they can roll out standard packages and still influence the opposing offense with regularity.

3.) The Explosive Passing Game

More than once this quarter, the Seahawks’ running game has been bottled up and limited.  Winning would depend on attacking through the air and required a high degree of efficiency.

The team has answered that call and then some.

The Seahawks are leading the NFL in passing yards, Metcalf and Smith-Njigba are in line for career-highs in targets and Lockett is not far behind them.

Are they running the same routes repeatedly?  No.  Have a look at JSN’s route tree in Week Two vs New England:

The complexity this offense is showing defenses is hard to untangle and work out as the season progresses.  Even if teams can begin to solve the scheme, their defenders still must defeat three Wide Receivers with skill profiles that not many teams have.

Challenges

1.) Game to Game Consistency

Here we come now to the downside of a major coaching change.  This quarter, the team swung wildly between brilliance and futility in seemingly a different area in each game:

— Week One vs Denver: the Offensive Line was a horrid mess.  Geno Smith was sacked on the first play of the season and on the second threw an interception under pressure.  They conceded two safeties in the first half.  They were directly responsible for seven Broncos points.

— Week Two at New England: it is the run game’s turn to be dreadful.  They conceded 5.14 yards per carry and eight runs of seven yards or more on defense against a team that telegraphed their intention to run.  On offense, 46 yards on 19 attempts forced Geno Smith to ‘fine I’ll do it myself’ and win the game with a passing tour de force.

— Week Three vs Miami:  Penalties.  A missed field goal.  The offense stagnated in the second and third quarters.

— Week Four at Detroit:  Explosive Runs conceded.  Explosive Passes conceded.  The defense was outgunned, outworked and dare I say out-schemed.

Granted, the Seahawks won three of those games.  Yet no one can say this team is a finished product. In every single interview Mike Macdonald has given he has acknowledged that.  He knows the team still has a long way to go.

Yes, their initial success has been very commendable.  But the team cannot afford these types of stretches when the schedule gets harder.  They must tighten things up considerably to keep succeeding.

2.) The Offensive Line

Starting Right Tackle Abe Lucas has yet to play and his NFL future is unknown.  The Seahawks wisely brought in a competent backup in George Fant, who immediately got hurt.  Stone Forsythe has not played well and has needed blocking help from the Tight Ends and Running Backs.

Center Connor Williams was a late addition and needed time to get into football shape and acclimate to the team.

Left Guard Laken Tomlinson has been a turnstile in pass protection.

Right Guard Anthony Bradford has been constantly flagged and has struggled to find his footing.  Third round Guard Christian Haynes has been the opposite of plug-and-play, failing to even get reps with the top line in training camp and being boom-or-bust when playing in games.

The Detroit game showed encouraging improvement.  Geno Smith dropped back 63(!) times and was only sacked three times.  The only lineman penalized was Charles Cross on an ineligible downfield and the Lions had an offset penalty, so it didn’t count.

That improvement must continue though.  Geno Smith being under that much pressure is playing with fire.  He took a couple of shots in that game that looked like they could have been bad.

3.) Special Teams

Michael Dickson is currently #10 in the NFL with a fantastic 49.3 yards per punt average – well ahead of his career 48.0 average.

The Punt Coverage team is not holding up their end of the deal unfortunately.  Dickson’s net average? 38.6 yards per punt, good for 29th in the NFL.  That is nearly 10% lower than his career average.

Only three teams in the NFL have a worse disparity between their punter’s Yards Per Punt and Net Yards per Punt.

They also are tied for the league lead in Touchbacks.

Is the Kickoff Coverage team any better?

No.

They are conceding 26.57 yards per return on seven returns.  Only one team in the NFL is conceding more yards on as many returns.

Dee Williams muffed a punt that gave the Broncos the ball at the Seahawks’ nine-yard line and led to a Field Goal.

Jason Myers missed a makeable 53-yard Field Goal try against the Dolphins and a 62-yard try against the Lions.  The 62-yard miss is hard to hold against Myers but the accuracy wasn’t the problem.  It is that he could not get the ball out of the end zone in a domed game in September.

Coach Harbaugh has his work cut out for him.  This unit needs to rapidly improve as soon as possible.

Dishonorable Mention:  Situational Playcalling on Offense

Some awareness needs to be added to the game plan.

Calling developing passing plays while at your own two-yard line is not advisable.  Particularly when your Offensive Line is playing so poorly.

Consecutive two-point try calls in the Detroit game that were lower-percentage plays.  Both failed – although admittedly it appears both the NFL and Mike Macdonald erred in not challenging the first one – and the Seahawks lost momentum.

Ryan Grubb could use a brief consult from Leslie Frazier.

Second Quarter Games

Home vs NY Giants

Home vs SF TNF (throwbacks!)

Road @ Atlanta

Home vs Buffalo

Home vs LA Rams

Goals for Second Quarter

1.) Beat San Francisco

This is job #1.  As much as we snicker when we see the Niners having injury and player contract issues, they are still the champs until someone knocks them off.  Every single season they go through a bout of ineffectiveness.  They almost always rebound and become the team that can steamroll anyone.

It could be argued that Mike Macdonald was hired not just to bring overall franchise success to the Seahawks but to ‘solve’ the offensive wizardry of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.  The Seahawks were 0-4 against those two teams last year and the miserable performances in those matchups were a big catalyst in regime change.

Splitting the season series is a reasonable goal.  The home game is the best place to start.

2.) Flip the Turnover Differential

A team winning three of four games with a -3 differential is not sustainable.

Interception problems should even out with an improved Offensive Line and some play calling acumen (and with more running – more on that below).

The Seahawk defenders have forced five fumbles but only recovered one.  If they keep working as they are, that pendulum of recovery should swing back their way.

The pass rush should provide more chances — between strip sacks (it is only a matter of time until the team is regularly getting them) and forced bad throws which lead to interceptions.

They have two interceptions as a team, both from unwise Bo Nix throws in his NFL debut.

Riq Woolen is doing his duty.  Teams have only targeted him eleven times in four games (completing three for a gaudy 27.3% completion rate allowed) and he showed he has not lot lost any speed or vision with his ‘teleporting’ across the field for his interception this season:

Devon Witherspoon needs to step up here as well.  He can cause havoc as a blitzer, jar the ball loose with a bone-crunching hit or step in front of errant passes.  He appears to still be adjusting to the new defense.  When he does, he will be a force to reckon with and a weapon that Macdonald can deploy all over the field.

3.) Even out the Offensive Balance

The Seahawks are the third-most pass-happy team in the NFL after four games with a 64.4/35.6 split.  For everyone’s sake, that needs some course correcting to favor the running game a bit more.

As fun as it is to see Geno Smith flinging it all over the field, there are too many factors that strongly argue for more balance.

The Offensive Line gelling together as an effective unit may be hastened by establishing the run as a greater part of their identity.

The Defense could use more opportunities to rest and be able to lean on opposing offenses later in the game.

And perhaps most importantly, Geno Smith’s health cannot be overstated as a team need.  He missed time with knee and hip injuries in the pre-season and has taken more than a couple of cringe-worthy hits in the first quarter.  As much as we would like to credit him forward for six years of sitting on the bench, he is not getting younger and injuries will be harder to effectively recover from in time to regain form.

In four games, they have run the ball 33 times in the first half, compared to passing 73 times.  There is where balance needs to be restored.  It does not have to be 50/50 or even favoring runs but getting Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet warmed up and ready to rumble over defenders as soon as possible will only benefit the team.

Two players who could help the Seahawks before the trade deadline

October 2, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The Seahawks are one of the more aggressive teams when it comes to the trade deadline. A year ago they used a second round pick on Leonard Williams. In the past they’ve added the likes of Duane Brown, Carlos Dunlap and Quandre Diggs.

The deadline is a month away on November 4th.

So is there anyone they could target?

Firstly, they’re not going to be buyers in the Davante Adams market. The passing offense is coming along nicely after a productive outing in Detroit and they already have major talent at the position. There’d be little reason to rent Adams for a couple of years, creating another mouth to feed.

Neither do I think it’s likely they’ll be able to make a big tilt for an offensive lineman. The NFL has an O-line problem with so many teams struggling up front. Any player worth having isn’t going to be dealt, unless they force a move like Brown did in 2017. That was a rare circumstance.

The only name I’ve seen on the O-line that might be available is Walker Little in Jacksonville. I liked him at Stanford but he’s bounced around a few positions and nothing has stuck. Is he even an upgrade at this point?

There are a couple of players though that I think might be worth having a look at.

Firstly, it’s important to look at teams who might be willing sellers. A legit contender isn’t going to give you a player to help you out. It needs to be a team already eyeing the future, someone who wants an extra pick or two to help in the draft next year.

Which teams are getting close to seller status?

The first name I’ll bring up is an old favourite — Calais Campbell.

He’s still going strong at 38. The ageless wonder has a couple of sacks for Miami and an 80.4 PFF grade — good for sixth among all interior defensive linemen.

The Dolphins’ season has collapsed. There’s a major unknown about the future of Tua Tagovailoa due to his latest concussion. They’re 1-3 and just lost Jaelen Phillips for the season, adding to their woes.

There’s virtually no chance Miami turns things around unless Tua returns to the field, stays healthy and orchestrates a revolution in form. That seems improbable.

They’re unlikely to sell off players who can be assets next year but Campbell presumably went to Miami for a playoff push as his career winds down. Playing out the slate on a losing, fairly dreadful team makes little sense.

Seattle’s D-line depth was severely tested against the Lions with Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy out. Adding Campbell would improve the interior rotation and provide great cover.

He’s also familiar with Mike Macdonald’s system, having played for the Ravens in 2022.

He only signed for $2m this year and having already taken four games off his salary, he’d be incredibly cheap to acquire. It also wouldn’t likely take much to bring him to Seattle.

A stumbling block might be his reluctance to leave. After all, he’s 38 and maybe went to Miami for more than just the chance to play for the Dolphins. He attended the University of Miami and might see it as an ideal spot to round off a great career.

I’d consider a call to Miami if there was a chance to get this done. The defense lacked a presence up front on Monday night and this would protect against it happening again.

The other player to consider is linebacker Devin Lloyd in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 0-4 and might also be considering a re-set in the off-season. Jeremy Fowler reported today they could be sellers.

Jerome Baker and Tyrell Dodson are only signed for this year. Baker has been injured and Dodson, after a good start, struggled behind a makeshift D-line in Detroit.

Lloyd is contracted for this season and next with cap hits of $3.5m (2024) and $4.1m (2025). Acquiring him would give you more depth and talent at the position, especially if Baker is going to be a constant injury question mark.

We saw what Mike Macdonald did for Roquan Smith in Baltimore. While Lloyd is not the same level of player, he’s shown a lot of improvement in the last season and a bit. Last year he received a 78.1 PFF grade. His mark for the first three games of this season is a 70.2 but on a struggling team. Importantly, he receives high grades for his run defense (76.3) — a major weakness for Seattle on the road so far.

In college Lloyd played with a physical style that would fit the mentality the Seahawks are aiming for.

I’m not sure what he would cost. The Jaguars took him in round one two-and-a-half years ago so it might be tricky to work out a price that would suit both parties. It is worth noting he missed Jacksonville’s last game through injury but he could return this weekend.

It’s nigh on impossible to predict a realistic trade scenario unless a player is actively being shopped like Davante Adams. However, both of these suggestions don’t seem that outrageous. I’m not sure they’d transform the Seahawks into major contenders or anything — but certainly if you inserted Campbell and Lloyd onto the roster they’d provide a major boost in depth with the potential to provide some impact.

With the offense flexing the way it did on Monday, adding more depth to the defense could really help the Seahawks in a wide-open NFC.

Last year they made the Williams trade sensing an opportunity to win the NFC West. They’re in a very similar position now. Will they act again?

Finally, do me a favour and check out my latest appearance on Puck Sports. This time I was on with Puck and Jim Moore. It was a real treat to speak to them both:

Scouting notes week five: Carson Beck’s stock collapses, the reality of round one, Cam Ward vs Virginia Tech, Ashton Jeanty is really good & more

October 1, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The last few days have confirmed a number of the things we’ve been discussing since summer scouting, in particular how thin the first round is looking.

Jim Nagy made this point on Monday:

This is one of the reasons why I build a horizontal board and don’t just chuck out ‘top-50’ lists and endless mock drafts. In both instances you’re not getting a snapshot of a draft class. You’re just seeking names to fill holes.

Jim noted he’s hearing fewer than 10 consensus legit first round players. On my board, which currently contains 128 players, I currently only have the following names in the top bracket:

Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
Abdul Carter (LB, Penn State)
Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)

Too many players are wrongly labelled ‘unique’ but Hunter legitimately fits the bill. It’s extremely difficult to pick between the two positions he plays for Colorado, that’s how good he is. Graham is a fantastic, complete defensive tackle. Johnson is a total class act in every sense at cornerback. Jeanty has shown so far this season that he is a non-typical example of a running back who warrants consideration with a high draft pick. Burden can be a downfield threat and a brilliant YAC specialist. Carter has outstanding speed and can move around the front-seven to wreak havoc. Starks is a classic modern-day Swiss army knife in the secondary.

I then have a list of players that could get into the top tier, or that you’d be willing to take in round one. Yet these players carry question marks. Can Quinn Ewers stay healthy and consistent? Are you willing to draft Shedeur Sanders early, considering what comes with having Sanders as the main man on your roster? Will we learn enough about Colston Loveland the Michigan tight end in his current offense to justify a top grade?

How fast is Tetairoa McMillan? It’s not clear if he’ll test well. Is James Pearce Jr going to be a liability setting the edge and is he a game wrecker or someone who looks better than he actually is? Does Kelvin Banks have the length to stick at tackle?

There are a whole bunch of players who are being way overrated in the media. Cam Ward, who I’ll talk about in this article, is being projected by some as a top-10 pick. Others are mocking him first overall. That is incredible. Will Campbell, a short-armed tackle who has struggled this season and might have to kick inside to guard, is often mocked in the top-10. I don’t think Ohio State’s pass-rush duo of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are anything like first round picks but they’re often mocked there.

There are also players being somewhat underrated. Josh Simmons at Ohio State might be the best pass-blocking left tackle eligible for 2025. Kaleb Johnson, Nicholas Singleton and DJ Giddens don’t get as much attention as some other running backs. TJ Sanders is an impact interior rusher from South Carolina and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is playing as well as anyone in college football.

I’ve said this a few times but a lot of the stuff you’ve been reading in the draft media is off. The 2025 draft does not look strong at the top end. As a consequence, we might see teams preparing to make trades using their top picks in the off-season.

Alabama vs Georgia was a tale of two quarterbacks

NFL teams are going to have a hard time forgetting this performance from Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. Even if he has a fantastic end to the season, they’ll keep coming back to this one. Compare Beck’s performance in Tuscaloosa to Quinn Ewers’ a year ago. They couldn’t be more different. A horror-show like this lingers in the memory, in a NFL-type environment. This game will haunt Beck.

It started badly and spiralled quickly. He almost threw a bad interception to start his second drive, after opening with a quick four-plays and a punt. Then he threw an ugly pick trying to set up a telegraphed screen.

His second interception was appalling — throwing it straight to Jihaad Campbell, who only had to drop and read the QB’s eyes. It’s a bad decision to not recognise the lurking danger and bad execution on the throw because if he aims it higher, he could clear any threat from the linebacker.

On his very next throw when Georgia regained the ball, Beck telegraphed another pass and the Alabama player dropped a pick-six. By this point he was all over the place and looked frazzled. His next throw was a hopeless lob down the seam to nobody. Then he was pressured on a blitz in his own end zone, he panicked and launched it downfield to nobody. It was a clear intentional grounding for a safety and two points to Alabama.

His ball placement, just as it was against Kentucky, was all over the place. He throws to general areas and consistently makes his receivers work to the football. He doesn’t have the great physical traits to entice you to want to work on this aspect of his game. He’s long, wiry and doesn’t have a great arm. Without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey to throw to, he looks very average.

Given Georgia’s near-epic comeback, you’d think things were better in the second half. Not really. He fumbled at the start of the fourth quarter trying to scramble. His redzone touchdown to Lawson Luckie with 9:46 remaining was harder to catch than it needed to be. He had a 67-yard touchdown throw to take the lead courtesy of a blown coverage by Keon Sabb (who totally bit on a little shoulder fake — how do you let that happen protecting a lead?).

By the end of the game he was throwing desperate 50/50 balls hoping his receiver would win contested catches. He ended the contest with such a pass — a floaty lob into the end zone which was easily intercepted for his fourth turnover of the game.

It’s clear now that the talk of being a first round pick was way off the mark. Frankly, it’d be hard to justify taking him on day two based on what we saw here. There’s nothing special physically and he’s not an accurate passer.

Jalen Milroe had a very different experience on Saturday and I’ll talk a lot about the positives in this article. However, once again we’re seeing a highly unrealistic and unnecessary reaction to this game. People are suggesting he’s shown rapid development as a quarterback this season. Some are saying he could be QB1 or warrants a first round pick. Please, let’s just pause for breath.

Georgia had no answer for his running ability in the first half. It’s almost like they’d never watched him play. They consistently gave up the perimeter run and should’ve funnelled him inside, while mushing their pressure to make him throw. After half-time they adjusted and sorted this out — but it took way too long.

On the opening drive he ran in the opening score. His second touchdown was a perfectly thrown wheel route with 10/10 placement and accuracy on the throw. His third score was a 36-yard rush on fourth down where he just exploited Georgia’s huge weakness defending the perimeter, rushing to the edge and exploding past the last defender and sprinting for the end zone. His ability to accelerate out of a corner and explode is akin to a Ferrari Formula One racing car. He made Georgia look slow.

This made for a dynamic, explosive first half showing. It was a teaching-tape example of how not to play Milroe. It also highlighted how brilliant Kalen DeBoer is as a scheming play-caller — tactically creating open receivers for Milroe to target.

Here’s the thing though — I still don’t think we had much of an opportunity to assess how he is developing as a technical passer. It was still a lot of one-read and run stuff. The offense creates easy completions for the quarterback and there’s almost no processing. Milroe is not sitting in the pocket, going through any kind of progression and throwing with timing or anticipation. He looks at the receiver who he is supposed to throw to. Sometimes, as with all of these offensive schemes, he might have to look-off a defender first. But then it’s either time to throw to the intended target or set off running. And it’s all done very quickly.

Under DeBoer the throws are more cultured and crafted, rather than throwing deep and hoping for the best — which is kind of what we saw last year. Is this true development? If you compare Milroe in this game vs the SEC Championship against Georgia, I guess it’s development of a sort. Milroe the passer was pretty bad against Georgia last season. Here, he looks a lot more in-tune with the offense and things are far less haphazard. Yet he’s not playing in a way that he’ll need to play in the NFL.

He won’t be able to just take off when his first read isn’t there in the NFL. Shedeur Sanders scrambles to extend and create to throw downfield. Milroe turns into a running back the minute he rejects the read. A proper perimeter defense with a spy could limit his running effectiveness at the next level. Is he capable of sitting in the pocket and playing conventionally? There’s little evidence of that. Until we see it, I’m not sure I’d call what we’re seeing ‘development’ so much as ‘DeBoer’s scheme is a lot better than what they were using a year ago’.

Look at third downs for example. Alabama were 3/11 on the night. They were 5/13 against USF. Having watched both games, I don’t think I’d back Milroe in the key downs unless he was able to find a running lane.

Is he a particularly accurate quarterback? He threw a bad interception in the red zone before half-time. The throw was behind the tight end and made it a far more difficult reception than it needed to be. The ball was juggled and picked off via the deflection. Admittedly, as already noted, he also had some excellent throws too — none more so than the touchdown on the wheel-route.

Milroe’s extreme physical qualities will carry appeal, as will his A+ character and personality. He will get a shot in the NFL. Right now, though, I think he’s still a day two pick with intriguing physical potential. Someone who, over time, could pair an improved technical grasp of the position with fantastic athletic skill. I think he’s a better version of what Malik Willis was coming into the league.

Some other final quick notes from the game. I thought Alabama left guard Tyler Booker again showed plenty of pure power and size, while moving well for such a massive frame. I legitimately think he could be a very plausible option for the Seahawks next year but it’s tricky to project a draft range.

There were three quality linebackers on the field. Jalen Walker is incredibly versatile and can rush the edge or play as a more conventional middle linebacker. He moves well around the field, plays with an edge and could be a first round pick. Alabama’s Deonte Lawson finds himself in the backfield all the time. He organises the defense well and his compact frame brings great power when he attacks the LOS. Jihaad Campbell looks very smooth and athletic but his high-cut frame might be an issue for some.

You’ve got to love this running back class

Ok, we’ve found him. The natural heir to Beast Mode. He plays for Boise State and he will be a first round pick, possibly the Heisman winner and he’s going to go earlier than people realise.

Ashton Jeanty is a phenomenal talent. His leg drive through contact is about as good as any player since Marshawn. He has enough speed to turn good runs into great runs. He can get to the perimeter. He changes direction with subtle shifts and footwork to make electric cuts. He breaks numerous tackles and trucks defenders. His pass pro is decent. He hurdled a defender on a catch and run against Washington State to show off athletic, explosive qualities, not just power.

Let me be clear, I’m not suggesting the Seahawks should draft another runner. They won’t get an opportunity to. Unless their season tanks, he’ll be gone by the time they pick anyway. Someone else should take him early though.

His first touchdown against Wazzu was a Beastquake-style run. On his second touchdown he had two defenders hanging off him as he dragged them into the end zone.

His third touchdown was spectacular. He bounced to the outside, breaking contact off the edge. After reading the perimeter he turned upfield, breaking one tackle then cutting away from another. He then sprinted to the end zone and with a defender trying to bring him down, he leapt to the end zone Super Man style to finish the run for a score. It’s one of the most electrifying runs you’ll ever see.

Jeanty’s final touchdown saw him zig-zag through blocks before trucking a defender on the goal line to get into the end zone.

Watch for yourself. I know the Washington State tackling absolutely stinks (sorry Cougs) but this is what a first round running back looks like:

For the season he has 43 missed tackles forced in four games. His nearest rival, Anthony Tyus III from Ohio, has 39 MTF’s but he’s played five game. Jeanty has 588 yards after contact — by far the most in college football. Omarion Hampton is second with 508 but he’s played an extra game. Kaleb Johnson is third with 457, he’s played four games. DJ Giddens is fourth with 415 and he’s played five games. For what it’s worth, Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens are my top three runners on the horizontal board.

Jeanty also leads the league in yards after contact per attempt at 7.17. Jonah Coleman at Washington is second with 5.69. Kaleb Johnson is third with 5.57. He leads college football with 10.3 yards per carry. Kaleb Johnson is second with 8.4.

These are astonishing numbers. High first round pick numbers.

I spoke last week about Iowa’s Kalen Johnson and his brilliance. He too could find a home in round one. I want to mention Kansas State’s Giddens this week. I thought he could be a second rounder had he declared for the 2024 draft. I watched his performance against Oklahoma State and I remain convinced he can go in that range.

He had 187 yards from 15 carries on Saturday, including one touchdown and a catch for a further 22 yards. He has a gliding quality, can break contact and finish runs. Giddens possesses enough speed to be a home-run hitter. There is a ton to like here.

Along with Jeanty, Johnson and Giddens, I’ve given a second round grade to Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton and Georgia’s Trevor Etienne. I also think Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai will be a day two pick and likely make a team very happy with his selection, plus Arkansas’ Ja’Quinden Jackson is another potential day-two pick. Omarion Hampton is the other runner I have currently graded for day two, with a bunch of early day three grades. I’m torn on whether to include LSU’s little used senior Josh Williams in the third round range. It’s a thick looking running back group.

The reality as I see it with Cam Ward

Ward has so far played better than I expected for Miami. I’ve seen him play live and always felt he had creative potential without having the physical brilliance to overlook some of the mistakes. I think he’s taken his game to another level in Miami and I’ve moved him up a round on my board (round three) — but as I’ve said a few times this season, there are things not being discussed amid a flurry of ‘first round’ and even ‘first overall pick’ chatter.

It’s a shame because I want to praise Ward for the start he’s had this season. Yet because the hype has just become so ridiculously over the top online, you constantly feel like you’re being negative about him. Instead of the positive (he’s improved his grade) you end up pushing back against the hyperbole.

Miami are still yet to play a truly challenging opponent. When Ward was at Washington State he tended to start very well then make mistakes when things became more challenging as the season developed. On Friday night against Virginia Tech, we saw the return of that. Miami should’ve lost the game.

He had some excellent throws attacking the sideline. Indeed at the start of the contest he looked very sharp. The colour commentator claimed he ‘went through his progressions’ on one touchdown throw when he was actually just holding the safety. It’s this kind of analysis that leads to bad reactions. Yet it was still a good job by Ward to manipulate the defender and throw with accuracy and velocity.

However, he’d pair plays like this with frustrating interceptions where he isn’t reading the defense properly and making avoidable mistakes. He had three turnovers — two picks and a fumble. His accuracy was also patchy, missing on several throws. His completion percentage was only 63.2% — easily his lowest mark of the season. Then he came roaring back at the end to lead two game-winning drives.

His footwork is still an issue as he tends to drift and freelance rather than play with greater structure. I’m not sure he has the big physical tools either — but at the same time he isn’t average in terms of arm and mobility.

He was credited with five big-time throws in the game and three turnover-worthy plays. That’s Ward in a nutshell. I’m not sure Miami’s schedule is tough enough to see this fully exposed but if he was playing in the SEC — I suspect we’d see him turn back into the Washington State quarterback we saw in 2022 and 2023. He can produce magic but then, in an attempt to try and do too much, he forces things and the mistakes flow.

He will not be able to play out of structure as much as he is at Miami and he’ll need to convince teams he can just set and drop with poise and timing. He can’t go backwards, as he has a tendency to do, and play off script. As we saw in this game, he is still the player who is prone to the occasional ‘WTF’ mistake.

Some teams will stomach this more than others. I actually think the Seahawks, with John Schneider and Ryan Grubb, might be more intrigued by his willingness to attack and create than some others. I still don’t think they’d take him as early as some are projecting though.

Watching a player live is a very different experience than watching on TV. When I watched Ward in person, I didn’t personally feel like I was watching a high draft pick. He will be drafted — probably on day two. But I’m not convinced it’ll be earlier than that.

Don’t just take my word for it either. Here’s Todd McShay citing a league source discussing Ward before the Virginia Tech game (first video) and after (second video):

Thoughts on Michigan vs Minnesota

Defensive tackle Mason Graham had two sacks and for me, he’s one of the top three eligible players next to Travis Hunter and Will Johnson. His first sack was a lovely swim move to beat the guard and burst into the backfield for a big loss. He flashed quickness and great technique on the swim. On his second sack, he just walks the guard back into the quarterback with supreme power. He is the complete defensive tackle.

It was a shame that neither Johnson and electric edge rusher Josaiah Stewart didn’t play due to injury. Stewart in particular is a player to monitor for the Seahawks. Wink Martindale loves him. He’s excelling in a scheme run by Mike Macdonald’s mentor. His personality fits the profile the Seahawks have gone for in the last three drafts. The only question marks are size and testing — but I think he could easily be on their radar. He won Michigan the game against USC last week.

Kenneth Grant had a sack but really it was just Max Brosmer running into him a yard behind the LOS. Grant is a good athlete but I’m yet to see the special qualities some people claim he has.

I thought Minnesota’s quarterback Brosmer actually played quite well in a difficult situation. He doesn’t get much help from his team — Minnesota gave up a lot of early pressure and they don’t have great weapons. He helped mount a late comeback in the rain with some accurate throws over the middle, making big conversions. He’s not going to be an early round pick because he lacks amazing physical traits but there is something there. I wouldn’t want to see him land with a Shanahan or McVay type because he might be able to run their systems quite effectively.

I like the way he attacked the seam late on, threw layered passes and made a game of this. His throw right at the end to make it a three-point game was spectacularly caught by the receiver but it was also a terrific arrowed pass into a tight window in the end zone.

His only interception on the day was an incredible play by the defensive back to somehow track the ball and improbably get a foot in bounds. It was unlucky for the quarterback. Like I said, he’s not a high pick or anything but he has a shot for the NFL I think.

Other notes

— LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had some sloppy moments on Saturday after his team had built a commanding lead against overmatched South Alabama. He threw a couple of horrible picks — I think because he took his eye off the ball. It’s a shame because up until that point he’d looked assured once again, throwing with anticipation, accuracy and he even had a couple of rushing touchdowns (one a sneak, one a scramble). The second lousy pick seemed to act as a kick up the arse and he led a very good touchdown drive with a couple of impressive deep throws. He’s having a very good season but he doesn’t need to chase stats.

— I watched Penn State’s Drew Allar against Illinois and I still think his accuracy looks patchy. He misses too many easy throws. He badly under threw a wide open receiver downfield on one play and was lucky to get a fortunate PI flag. It should’ve been a touchdown. He also still looks a bit ungainly on the move and reminds me too much of Mike Glenn for comfort.

— Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard was a lot better against Louisville — avoiding mistakes, playing the percentages, doing a better job in the pocket and letting things play out around him. It still feels like his bed is made as an ‘athlete at quarterback’ rather than ‘athletic quarterback’. Even so, this was an improvement. I’ll continue to monitor him. I especially liked his long touchdown pass where he turned down the opportunity to take off and run having stepped up into the pocket (there was an enormous amount of space in front of him) and instead threw with great accuracy downfield. You want to like him because of his physical tools but he needs to show better consistency and feel in the pocket.

— I watched Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson against USC. I thought he played well on the road — stymying most attacks off the edge. He has clear strength on contact and he’s difficult to move. He isn’t overmatched vs speed which is encouraging. He’s a classic old-school physical blocker from the BIG-10. I like him a lot as a possible left guard convert but think he could also be a decent right tackle. If the Seahawks want physical linemen with positional flexibility he could be an option, especially as someone who could move inside one spot to left guard. He’s 6-6, 310lbs and has 33 5/8 inch arms. Scott Huff used players like this at left guard at Washington. I think he could be a very useful day two pick for Seattle to try and fix a problem area. The Detroit game highlighted how much of a priority the offensive line will be in the off-season.

— I also studied Alabama’s Parker Brailsford and Iowa’s Logan Jones further over the weekend. Obviously Brailsford has a history with Huff and Grubb but both players fit the brief for an athletic, aggressive center. If the Seahawks want to invest in the position in the off-season, they could both be plausible options. For what it’s worth, Jones has been timed running a 1.53 10-yard split at 293lbs, he’s jumped a near 37-inch vertical, he’s run a 4.09 short shuttle and he set an Iowa squatting record of 695lbs. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz has compared him to Tyler Linderbaum athletically. He also plays with a mean streak.

If you enjoy these weekly scouting reports, please consider supporting the blog via Patreon (click here). Hours of weekly work goes into these pieces — watching games, making notes and writing the articles (this one is over 4250 words).

Also if you missed it, check out our instant reaction podcast reacting to the Detroit loss on Monday Night Football:

Instant reaction: Seahawks lose in Detroit with depleted defense

September 30, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Well, that was a superb effort by Geno Smith, Ken Walker, Ryan Grubb and the offense.

The defense? A different story.

Losing Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe and Jerome Baker was always going to make life very difficult. Julian Love exiting with a thigh injury in the second half made matters even worse.

Still, it would’ve been nice to see the replacements show a little bit more than this.

Most people anticipated some issues, especially against an opponent with such a strong offensive line and a nice arsenal of skill players. I’m not sure many anticipated Jared Goff having a 100% completion percentage at 16 yards per completion.

Awful tackling on a David Montgomery 40-yard catch-and-run, a Jared Goff touchdown reception and a 70-yard saunter for Jameson Williams immediately after a hard-earned Seahawks touchdown drive tilted things towards farcical.

The score never got out of full control thanks to Seattle’s brilliant offensive display. Yet it also never quite felt there was a moment to get too excited. Any moments of joy were so fleeting, because after all but one of the Seahawks’ offensive series’, the defense would just hand points to the Lions.

It really showed the importance of being strong in the trenches. Detroit bossed things at the line of scrimmage on offense. They had a lot of success with their D-line too — and it’s to Geno Smith’s credit that he still found a way to make so many plays.

On Smith, this was a sensational performance. Without him, it would’ve been a tragic blowout. The Seahawks put so much on his shoulders to try and keep up with the Lions’ easy scoring rate. With even a tiny bit of help from the defense, he might’ve orchestrated a cracking victory. The only blemish was the penultimate redzone series, which was a bit of a mess to end with disappointment.

Ken Walker has played two games this season and has shown in both that he has legit superstar potential. His combination of power, speed, change of direction and rapid acceleration is reminiscent of the greats at his position. If he can stay healthy he’ll be a wow player.

It would’ve been interesting to see this match-up with Seattle’s defensive line at full strength. It also has to be mentioned how banged up Detroit are too. They were missing key defensive players plus their great center, Frank Ragnow.

Mike Macdonald gave a passionate ‘next man up’ message in the week. He’s seen how difficult this is going to be with a weakened D-line. The money spent on Leonard Williams, for starters, definitely seems well invested tonight. He would’ve hoped from more from the fill-ins, who missed an opportunity here. The Seahawks still need to pad out their depth in the next off-season.

A loss isn’t the end of the world. They kept fighting right to the end, which is to their credit. A victory would’ve been outstanding but it never felt that realistic that the Seahawks would march into Detroit and win with so many key absentees. The key is to try and get the missing players back as soon as possible.

If that can’t happen, the Seahawks might have a few issues in the coming weeks against opponents with similar high-scoring offensive units. At least, though, they’ve shown they can be really potent on offense.

Curtis Allen’s week four watch-notes (vs Detroit)

September 30, 2024 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

At 3-0, Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks accomplishing something that not many other teams have done — winning games while breaking in an entirely new coaching staff with new systems on both sides of the ball.  To be sure, growing pains have been present. Yet skill, hard work in practice and determination are compensating for those challenges and then some.

It’s very easy to look at their first three opponents and dismiss their success as the result of a soft schedule.  What can easily be overlooked is the rate at which this team is beginning to gel.  Whenever Macdonald is asked to comment on their success so far, he quickly pivots to the truth. They have a long way to go as a team and he has them not resting on their laurels of success but using that as a springboard towards future growth.

Based on everything we have seen in training camp, the preseason and the first three games, I think we can trust this coaching staff to identify and work on their issues in a progressive manner.  The status quo will not be tolerated.  The message is being sent loud and clear — success is built on hard work and an understanding that attention to detail and keeping the fundamentals in front of you are core principles they will adhere to.

Which brings us to this week’s matchup against a familiar foe:  the Detroit Lions have been a regular part of the Seahawks’ schedule.  This will be the fourth year in a row they will play each other.  And 2025 may be the fifth, depending on the division place both finish in.

The Seahawks have won all three games.

We have consistently identified ways to beat this Lions team (click here and here).

It begins and ends with containing this powerful offense – particularly in the run game – while taking advantage of a middling defense to apply scoreboard pressure and forcing Jared Goff win the game for them.

Fact:  in every Lions’ loss from 2022 on, their run/pass mix on offense has favored the pass.

Fact:  in only two of the Lions’ 25 wins in that same stretch have they asked Goff to throw more than 60% of the time.  And one of those wins?  Week 11 last year against Chicago?  They needed to throw to get back into the game in the fourth quarter because… Goff had thrown three interceptions, one in each quarter.

Side note:  How Goff has parlayed his performance into a 4-year extension with $170 million guaranteed is Exhibit A that the NFL has gone crazy for Quarterbacks.

Anyway, at the risk of copying and pasting once again, here is our previous explanation of why they need to rely so heavily on the running game, and how to exploit that vulnerability on defense:

Their offense is working because they consistently call for Goff to get rid of the ball as soon as he possibly can.

The Lions have found something that works with Jared Goff’s limited abilities.  Hand it off to your explosive runners and let them move the ball downfield.  Run some play action with designed pass plays that are one-look and throw and let them gain yards after the catch with their athleticism.  Take the snap and throw quick slants.

it is remarkable how much he telegraphs his intentions by not even looking at anyone but his primary target.  He practically must throw to his first read for the play to be successful.  Anything else is an adventure.

If that is the case, the strategy is obvious.  Get the corners up on their men.  Press them, take away the easy catch and run and make Goff hold onto the ball and think.  Safeties and coverage linebackers, read his eyes.  I would be comfortable gambling by instructing the defenders to break on his first read and make him pay for his lack of vision.

Make Jared Goff beat you.

Watch a textbook example of this:

The coverage team is doing their job.  Goff is having to wait and scan the field before throwing.  His quick target is not immediately open.  His feet get a little happy, and he throws to Sam LaPorta.  Riq Woolen has read his eyes and with his track-star speed, closed the gap quickly and stepped in front of the throw and returned it for a touchdown.

To get to this point, the defense needs to contain the running game, and the offense needs to score to apply pressure.

The most complete example of this strategy was delivered by the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 6 beatdown of the Lions.  This is how the first eight series went:

Ravens: Touchdown in 4:23 (4 runs, 3 passes)

Lions: 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Sack, Punt

Ravens: Touchdown in 5:46 (4 runs, 7 passes)

Lions: 2y Pass, 4y Run, Incomplete Pass, Punt

Ravens:  Touchdown in 3:57 (1 run, 7 passes)

Lions: 3y Run, Sack, 13y Pass, Punt

Ravens: Touchdown in 2:56 (4 runs, 2 passes)

Lions: Seven passes, no runs, ball turned over on downs

In a quarter and a half, the Ravens had completely short-circuited the Lions’ game plan on offense and made them one-dimensional.  They cruised to an easy 38-6 win, with Tyler Huntley getting a series at the end of the game.

Can the Seahawks pull off something similar?

They can.  Perhaps not to the extreme degree that the Ravens did.  But it is within their grasp.

How?

Take Advantage of the Lions Defense

Detroit’s defensive backfield has performed poorly so far this season.  Cornerbacks Terron Arnold and Carlton Davis are among the league’s worst-performing players (in 44 targets they have zero interceptions and one – one! – pass defensed among them) and excellent safety Brian Branch has appeared on the injury list with an illness and may not play.

The Lions reached the NFC Championship game last year, but that is more a tribute to their coaching and their ability to implement their offensive game-control vision than their defense.  They were in the bottom-10 of the NFL in points allowed and passing yards allowed.

Their rushing defense was a top-five unit, and while anytime you can be in the top-five of any statistic, that is good, it is a bit of a red herring.  Their ability to run their offense successfully set up the opponent to have to take to the air to keep up.  They faced the third fewest number of rushing attempts and were rarely tested on the ground.

With Ken Walker back and Zach Charbonnet coming off a good week against the Dolphins, the Seahawks should be able to use the rushing attack to balance out the offense and keep the ball out of the Lion offense’s hands as much as they would like.

They have done it before, more than once.

But what about the passing game?  Aidan Hutchinson stands as the solitary obstacle in the Seahawks’ way to running their game plan however they like.  He already has 6.5 sacks and is looking like he is putting together a case for Defensive Player of the Year.  How can the Seahawks keep him in check, particularly when he lines up the bulk of his snaps against the Right Tackle?  With the Seahawks running out their third choice there in Stone Forsythe?

Look to the game last year, when Hutchinson played 68 snaps against Forsythe and Jake Curhan and did not record a sack.  How did they do it?  Have a look at the tape.

You will see the Seahawks offense using every trick available to them — double-teaming him with a tight end or running back, having a tight end chip them on their way to a route, dialing up quick passes to get rid of the ball before he can get home, and moving the offense away from his side of the field.

They also occasionally got creative.  Watch 3:22 where they bring in three tight ends and double him with Dissly and Parkinson, while Geno Smith throws to Noah Fant for a nice gain.

To be fair, Hutchinson still had an impact on the game.  At 3:33 you see him bullying Curhan right into Smith’s lap and making him throw the ball away (followed by Myers wildly missing a field goal try).  At 11:16 you see him as a key part of the pressure that has Smith taking a very ill-advised sack late in the game that allowed the Lions to kick a field goal and force OT.

Hutchinson is going to have his plays.  But the Seahawks need to make sure they have him covered for the bulk of the game, as they did last year.

If Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff can make this happen, the game should be well in control.

Keep the Lions Running Game in Check

This would appear troublesome, with the Seahawks missing some of their best run defenders to injury in Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and rookie Byron Murphy tonight.

But consider this point from earlier this week:

Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed are ready to play.  Derick Hall has taken a big leap in his second year.  Mafe didn’t play last season, Leonard Williams was not yet a Seahawk and Edwards and Taylor have been replaced with Johnathan Hankins, Mike Morris, Trevis Gipson and (likely) Tyus Bowser.

At Linebacker, Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks have been replaced by Tyrell Dodson and (possibly) Jerome Baker and a backup combo of Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas.

That team last year held the Lions to 3.78 yards per carry and one explosive run.

Can this year’s team hold to that standard?  Or do even better?

Remind me – who coached that Ravens defense that kept the Lions clamped down last year and constantly gave the ball back to their offense?

This game will be the biggest test yet of Mike Macdonald’s defensive acumen.  Playing without four key defenders along the line will require quite a bit of his scheming and play calling skills.  Also helpful is the Lions will be without Center Frank Ragnow – one of the NFL’s best – for this matchup.

We saw this game before the season started as a test of two good teams.  Injuries have altered that somewhat.  It is now a test of good coaching and scheming.

And so, this game will show us another element of this new Seahawks regime.  Can they win a tough game on the road against a quality opponent without a good chunk of their best players available?

I would not bet against them.

Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr has my attention

September 26, 2024 /

I recently sat down to watch Maryland receiver Tai Felton and couldn’t help but notice the person throwing him the ball. Billy Edwards Jr might be the best kept secret in college football.

Granted, his only real test so far was a close loss to Michigan State. I’d also suggest he’s unlikely to declare for the draft after just one year as a starter. He transferred from Wake Forest after a redshirt freshman season and has been waiting his turn behind Taulia Tagovailoa since.

Even so, I wanted to write a short piece on him today and note he’s one to watch for the future.

Edwards Jr has a sidearm release but he’s able to whip the ball out with great velocity. He’s constantly attacking the middle of the field — throwing layered passes with the necessary arm strength. You see him throw from the left hash-mark to the right sideline with ease. He can also throw with touch downfield, he knows when to hang a pass in the air to create a 1v1 opportunity or a fade to the back corner of the endzone and he’s very capable of throwing downfield in the 40-45 yard range.

I’m really focusing on third down conversions this season and this was an area Edwards Jr really impressed me. He had one 3rd and 13 seam throw against Michigan State that was an absolute bullet placed with great accuracy between a crowd of defenders. He regularly showed poise in the pocket, kept his base and delivered to move the chains. Maryland are 36/66 on third and fourth downs this season — 54.5% conversions. Several of these conversions were 3rd and at least mid-range yardage with Edwards Jr getting the job done.

He plays smart football. He’s very willing to go through progressions and check down wisely to take what a defense offers. Yet he’s not overly conservative. There’s plenty of evidence in four games this season of him throwing into tight windows, putting a bit more on passes when needed to fit the ball into his target. There’s one redzone throw against Virginia arrowed in between two defenders for a touchdown that really makes you sit up and take notice. Edwards Jr holds the safety to the left with his eyes then comes back over the middle, delivering with great accuracy and velocity between the two defenders thanks to the space he created. He does try to be creative and he’ll take a few risks to be a playmaker.

He’s athletic enough to be used as a runner — although his running style is a bit reckless and he takes too many avoidable, heavy hits. He has 10 total touchdowns and two interceptions in four games. He’s leading the BIG-10 in passing yardage.

He’s listed at 6-4 and 219lbs with room to add a little more weight if needed. I’ve listened to the way he speaks and it’s impressive. He’s determined, carries a bit of a chip on his shoulder, speaks well and you can imagine him being a lead voice in a locker room.

Here’s the Maryland Head Coach on his quarterback:

“I think he has emotion, and he’s one of those guys that he’s on both sides of the aisle, per se,” Locksley said. “Like, you’ll see him hanging out with the running backs, and then he’ll be with the big [offensive] linemen. He kind of gets along with everybody, and to me when you think of a quarterback, it’s a person that elevates the level of his teammates. Always say he has to have the mind of a coach and the skill of a player, and those are characteristics Billy showed early.”

I think he’s an impressive looking quarterback. I’m eager to see more and will be tracking him in the coming weeks.

You can watch his performance against Michigan State here:

As for his top target Tai Felton — he’s very savvy with his routes, shows good body control and an ability to adjust to the football in the air. His YAC ability is impressive. He has enough size and the only thing to be uncertain about is his pure speed. That will determine how early he goes — but he’s a player who could easily find a day two home in the draft.

Scouting notes week four: Michigan pass rusher is unstoppable, Kaleb Johnson in round one & more

September 24, 2024 /

Josaiah Stewart dominates USC

Michigan might have abandoned the passing game but at least they can rely on a decent collection of NFL defenders to be competitive. Nobody was more impressive than Stewart against the Trojans. He was unstoppable — collecting two sacks, three TFL, four QB hits and a forced fumble. However, these numbers barely highlight just how dominant he was on Saturday.

It’s one of the best pass rushing performances I’ve seen in a long time. He consistently screamed off the edge, had the two tackles struggling to get even a hand on him and USC had to shift their protection throughout the second half to try and stop him wrecking the game.

Stewart lacks ideal size and length (6-1, 240lbs, 32 1/4 inch arms) but he’s just so dynamic attacking the edge. He plays with a relentless motor and has surprising power. Watching him I couldn’t help but think he was a fit for the Mike Macdonald Seahawks.

He transferred from Coastal Carolina in 2023. As a true freshman he set the single game program record with four sacks and collected 12.5 for the year (another school record). His sophomore season wasn’t as productive — recording just 3.5 sacks. He had 5.5 in his first season for Michigan.

Stewart rose to prominence last season because he was the player who famously bull-rushed top-10 pick JC Latham into Jalen Milroe on the final, decisive play to win the Rose Bowl, despite a +100lbs weight difference:

If he was 6-5 and 250lbs with 34 inch arms he’d be on a trajectory to be a very high pick. The size will cost him because there are so few players with his physical profile who turn into top NFL rushers. Yet there’s just so much to like. Almost every rep is attacked lack it’s his last. He will challenge tackles with his physical playing style and I suspect he’ll do a better than expected job vs the run as a consequence, just through sheer attitude.

Look at him set the edge on Saturday, this is a grown-man rep:

He consistently sacrificed his body against USC to run full pelt into the tackle to drive him backwards and impact the running game. It’s an unorthodox but effective jolt-back style.

Yet he’s not just uniquely powerful and committed for his frame. There are genuine bursts of suddenness off the edge:

He’s going to need a wide-alignment to be effective. With his lack of length you’re unlikely to see him engage and rip through contact. Stewart needs an angle and it could limit his role to that of a situational edge or rotational 3-4 OLB. Yet a creative schemer could put him in various positions to succeed. I also wouldn’t bet against him playing way beyond his size limitations.

For example, despite his lack of length he did show an ability to straight arm the left tackle, keeping his frame clean to peak into the backfield and remain in the play. Plus his smaller height enabled him to win leverage battles as he got underneath the left tackles’ pad level to drive him backwards on one snap, forcing an incompletion.

The other thing working in his favour was a dangerous inside move. He really only had two forms of attack and he’ll need to be more varied. Yet whenever he darted to the inside shoulder of the tackle he was so quick. You could see how terrified both tackles were, struggling to defend the edge and the inside rush. Stewart absolutely hammered Miller Moss on one inside move and as a consequence the throw was nearly intercepted (it should’ve been).

He had an edge rush from the right hand side that ended the first half. Again he was too quick and the right tackle couldn’t get hands on him. It was a very easy win based on pure quickness off the edge.

His sudden agility movements are reminiscent of top edge rushers. Stewart can glide in his sideways shifts to dodge blockers and remain clean.

USC began the third quarter constantly shifting protection to help whichever side he attacked. They chipped him with the RB, pulled guards to support on his side and they had the TE help with a double team. They knew he was wrecking the game.

The first USC touchdown happened on a snap when he was being spelled. There was a noticeable difference when he wasn’t on the field.

I think the pick-six from Moss thrown to Will Johnson was provoked by the fact Stewart was in USC’s head. He was closest to Moss, too, when he made the ill-fated throw after another dynamic inside move.

He beat the running back and right tackle to force a red zone fumble at the end of the third quarter. He was too fast, again, for both. Two blockers vs one rusher made no difference.

Stewart ran an inside rush in the fourth quarter where the right tackle was just hanging on for dear life — he was too powerful to be stopped and ran through the block. On the same drive, he forced an incompletion on 3rd and 7 with yet another dynamic interior rush — easily beating the left tackle.

With 34 seconds remaining — guess what? Another dominant inside rush to force an incompletion, this time with the game on the line. He ended the contest, just as he did against Alabama last season.

As I said, he was unstoppable in this game. He received a 95.8 PFF grade for the performance and is currently PFF’s top graded edge rusher for the season (92.9). Having listened to his interviews — he’s mature, well spoken and appears to have have high character marks. This isn’t surprising given the way he plays.

Stewart might not be ideally sized but there’s no doubt in my mind that you can win a lot of games with players like this on your roster. He’s a warrior, a perfect fit for Seattle and would be a tremendous addition to the rotation. Even with other needs on the roster, I’m inclined to say ‘find a way to get this player’.

Iowa running Kaleb Johnson adds to deep RB class

Ashton Jeanty at Boise State is quite rightly getting most of the draft buzz at running back but it’s an increasingly strong looking group. Arkansas’ Ja’Quinden Jackson has caught my eye, Nicholas Singleton and Trevor Etienne are destined to be effective pro-runners and I’m a fan of DJ Giddens. The depth stretches into players like Raheim Sanders, Kyle Monangai and several others.

However, Iowa’s Johnson flashed so much on Saturday against Minnesota, I think he has the makings of a NFL star. He has everything.

He’s ideally sized at 6-0 and 225lbs with sprinters speed. If he finds a lane he’ll accelerate and reach top speed quickly and he pulls away from defenders. He can get skinny to run through gaps in the line.

This play ended in a 40-yard run:

You want to see running backs run through contact in order to gain extra yardage and turn good runs into great runs. Johnson leads all running backs in college football with 444 yards after contact. For comparison, Omarian Hampton who is second on the list has 394 yards, with Jeanty a distant third with 354.

The Boise State runner leads the NCAA with 6.32 yards after contact per attempt, with Johnson second on 5.41.

What about missed tackles? Johnson is ranked first with 30 in just four games. Jeanty has 26.

Explosive runs? Again Johnson leads college football with 18 runs of 10+ yards (Ja’Quindon Jackson, who I highlighted last week, also has 18).

He was as unstoppable against Minnesota as Josaiah Stewart was against USC. Iowa only managed 62 passing yards in the game and still won 31-14 despite a totally one-dimensional attack. It was down to Johnson’s 206 yards on 21 carries, including three touchdowns. He already has 685 rushing yards and nine touchdowns for the season. His yardage total unsurprisingly leads college football with, again, Jeanty in second place on 586 yards.

The one area where both runners aren’t particularly impressive is in the passing game. That might say more about Iowa than Johnson’s ability to be a receiver — but he only has seven catches on seven targets for 26 yards. Jeanty has five catches on eight targets for a meagre 12 yards.

While most people are starting to consider Jeanty a realistic first round possibility — I think Johnson’s right up there too. They are the two most talented pure runners eligible for next year. I think they both deserve fringe first round grades and at a time where the running game is becoming more important due to the frequency with which we see two-high safety defensive schemes — they could both easily go in the first frame next April.

Other scouting notes

— Week four was not good for injuries. LSU’s Harold Perkins tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Michigan’s Will Johnson left the game against USC with an injury. Raheim Sanders at South Carolina barely featured and top tight end Colston Loveland didn’t play. Earlier in the week we saw talented cornerback Shavon Revel ruled out for the season with an ACL injury too.

— It was another underwhelming day for LSU offensive lineman Will Campbell against UCLA. I remain unconvinced by people projecting him as a high first round tackle and personally see him as a day two guard. It’s since been revealed he has sub-33 inch arms, increasing the likelihood that he’d need to kick inside.

— LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier again played well against UCLA. He showed sensational accuracy on a downfield throw at the start of the second quarter. He looked off the safety and then threw a perfect dime to the right sideline, hitting the receiver in stride with such precision it looked like he handed the ball to the wideout:

Every week I’m impressed with the level of anticipation he shows when throwing. Look at the screen grab below. He’s off-balance with the center virtually standing on his toes in the pocket. He throws to the crossing route (see the circled receiver) with perfect accuracy right down the hash marks, letting him run onto the football for the completion. It’s not an easy throw due to the lurking defender positioned just in front of the midfield logo:

Once again Nussmeier was great on third downs — LSU converted 10-15 on the day. You could visibly track how he manipulated defenders with his eyes by watching his helmet stripe. He finished 32/44 passing for 352 yards, three touchdowns and zero turnovers.

I’m incredibly impressed with the technical level he’s showing. Very few quarterbacks play this way in college. He’s producing results on a much less talented LSU roster this year, too. How teams judge his physical upside will determine how high he goes but I wouldn’t rule out a high grade by some. He’s not a weak-armed player — he just doesn’t have a cannon with amazing scrambling ability. Make no mistake though — he is very talented and deserves more attention.

— Some quick thoughts on two other quarterbacks from week four. I watched Penn State and Drew Allar versus Kent State. He reminds me of Mike Glennon. They have the same frame, throwing style and they were both a bit gangly and ungainly on the move. Max Brosmer at Minnesota had a mixed day against Iowa but he did have some nice throws over the middle. He lacks consistency at the moment. He didn’t get much help in the game and his second pick was a tipped pass. His first was a poor late throw although on replay a hideously bright setting sun appeared to be shining right in his eyes. Brosmer isn’t going to be a high pick but he is a player I’d be fearful of if he landed with the Rams or Niners.

— This is shaping up to be a good tight end class. Penn State’s Tyler Warren is one of my favourite players to watch so far. He’s incredibly dynamic as a pass catcher and is clearly Drew Allar’s favoured target. On Saturday he also threw for a touchdown and took a direct snap before running for 17-yards. I think he’s a fringe first rounder and a likely top-45 pick. LSU’s Mason Taylor continues to shine. Both players are plus blockers and they will carry a lot of NFL appeal. Taylor is the son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor (ex-Dolphins pass rusher) and his uncle is Zach Thomas (former Dolphins/Cowboys/Chiefs linebacker). It’s also good to see Iowa’s Luke Lachey back on the field. He’s a tremendous blocker in the run game and can be a good pass-catcher too. I really like all three players.

— Two Iowa offensive linemen have caught my eye. Center Logan Jones is an elite athlete with the kind of traits and size that have worked in Scott Huff’s scheme previously. He had a tremendous run blocking game vs Minnesota. Gennings Dunker is also very athletic, physical and a classic Iowa lineman who could be a very useful guard at the next level.

Finally, please support Puck Sports and check out my latest show below reflecting on the Dolphins game — if you can also like the video that’d be great:

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