Author: Rob Staton (Page 3 of 401)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Why Ryan Grubb’s future might be in question unless Seattle’s running game improves

November 26, 2024 /

On the 30th October 2011, I travelled to Seattle from Vancouver to watch the Seahawks play the Bengals. They lost 34-12. It left the Seahawks with a 2-5 record and the future appeared pretty bleak. People were talking about ‘suck for (Andrew) Luck’. There was doubt about Pete Carroll, now one-and-a-half seasons into his NFL return. Where was this going?

A week later came the turning point. They went to Dallas to play the Cowboys, who had playoff ambitions. They lost 23-13 but the defense stepped up its game. They were tougher and harder to play against. An encouraging sign.

The following week they beat the Ravens (where this happened). Then they hammered the Rams. They blew a game against Washington before returning to form against the expensively acquired Eagles — destroying Howie Roseman’s ‘dream team’ roster in Prime Time. Big wins followed against the Rams (again) and Bears before two close losses ended the season on a slight dampener.

Either way, by the time the 2011 season concluded the Seahawks had established themselves as a developing force. The LOB era was coming together. They were a nightmare to play against. The foundations were there for future success.

I don’t think the 2024 group are quite at that stage yet — but it’s carrying a similar vibe. This is now three successive strong defensive performances. They may still drop the odd frustrating game between now and week 18, as they did against the Rams before the bye. But if the defense can continue playing at this level, it will provide similar hope for the future that the Seahawks can have another go at being a contender.

There are some things, though, that could hold them back.

Firstly — as important as the defense was during that 2011 season, Marshawn Lynch was arguably even more critical to their blossoming success. In Lynch, the Seahawks had a legit star. From the Dallas game until the end of the season — nine games in total — he ran for 941 yards and scored 10 total touchdowns.

The Seahawks couldn’t be further away from that level of running performance currently.

On Sunday against the Cardinals, every called run was a headache to watch. The O-line created no push up front. It felt like Ken Walker was exerting a ton of energy just to find a way back to the line of scrimmage. By the end the Seahawks had virtually given up running the ball — choosing to try and close out the game with Geno Smith.

It said it all that in a one-score game in the fourth quarter, in the rain, on the next series after Smith had thrown an ugly interception in the red zone, they came out throwing and nearly threw another back-breaking pick. Smith’s pass was inaccurate and luckily the Arizona player just couldn’t grab the ball before it hit the turf. What a let off.

Mark Sanchez on the commentary was practically yelling down his microphone telling them to run instead. What were they doing?

This is the thing holding back the Seahawks from generating even more excitement. In 2011 it would’ve been a classic ‘Beat Mode’ moment. A heavy dose of Lynch to finish off the contest, grinding out a long drive. The Seahawks don’t lack talent at running back but their total inability to run at any kind of level is holding them back. It didn’t cost them against Arizona but it could in future weeks.

I imagine this really bothers Mike Macdonald, a Harbaugh protégé. While he seems perfectly mild-mannered during interviews, the Brady Henderson article a few weeks ago uncovered an edge to Seattle’s Head Coach that isn’t outwardly expressed. He is delivering the kind of defense we’ve been waiting years to see — but the offense isn’t currently playing in a way to complement it.

If I had to guess, Macdonald probably feels like he won’t truly have delivered his vision for this team until the defense and running game go hand-in-hand. While the defense is progressing nicely, the running game is regressing at the same rate.

When you bring up the struggling run game, most people point to the O-line — which is fair enough. It was bad again against Arizona. It’s been bad all year. It needs major work.

Every single lineman received a bad run-blocking grade per PFF:

Olu Oluwatimi — 58.8
Christian Haynes — 58.2
Abe Lucas — 50.3
Charles Cross — 49.8
Laken Tomlinson — 40.1

However, this isn’t a problem exclusive to the Seahawks. A lot of teams have issues blocking. A lot of those teams still find ways to run the ball a lot more effectively than the Seahawks.

This tweet from Brock Huard was scathing in the review of Ryan Grubb’s inability to work out solutions to be able to find any semblance of running effectiveness — especially against a team in Arizona giving up 121.8 rushing yards per game (the Seahawks managed just 65 yards):

When I’ve discussed Grubb recently there’s been a lot of sympathetic replies in the direction of Seattle’s OC. Again, the O-line is a huge problem. We can all see that. Yet as Huard notes above, why are they so incapable of working around this to produce any kind of ground success?

I do think it’ll bring Grubb’s position into question at the end of the season unless things change. The most important thing for Macdonald as a young, first-time Head Coach is to have everything aligned to create his vision. Yes, a new staff needs time. At what cost though? Wasting time? Failing to have everything connected? At the end of the season they’ll need to decide whether Grubb can produce an offense to complement Macdonald’s developing defense. At the moment, you have to wonder whether they’re philosophically aligned — and if they aren’t, a change is very likely.

You can’t have a close game like Sunday where you’re winning for the majority of the contest, in bad weather, and you have 39 throwing situations and only 22 runs by your running backs. The Seahawks are attempting 37 passes per game, fifth most in the NFL. Their 22.6 rushing attempts per game are fifth fewest. This is not typical for a team led by a defensive-minded coach, coming from a Ravens/Michigan background.

How much of this is necessity and how much of it is indicative of philosophy and preference? If the Seahawks add two quality offensive linemen in the off-season, will the numbers above flip in terms of run/pass ratio? Or is Ryan Grubb always going to lean towards an aggressive passing offense?

Reports earlier this year suggested Arthur Smith was slated to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator if he got a Head Coaching gig — but Baltimore’s playoff run delayed things and he didn’t want to end up out of work, so took the Steelers job. Pittsburgh is currently running the ball 34.3 times a game, second most in the NFL. They’re passing 28.4 times a game, second fewest.

The Steelers’ O-line isn’t grading particularly well and they’ve suffered key injuries to Troy Fautanu and James Daniels. Broderick Jones (53.2) and Mason McCormick (55.9) are playing poorly according to PFF, although Dan Moore Jr (71.0), Isaac Seumalo (69.7) and Zach Frazier (77.4) are fairing better but not at a spectacular grading level. Pittsburgh’s average grade for their five offensive linemen is a 65.4. That’s the exact same average as the five players who started for Seattle against the Cardinals.

The Steelers are finding a way to produce a ground game that is ranked eighth in the league. Seattle’s is ranked 28th.

It wasn’t an ideal situation to have a Head Coach accepting a job just before the Super Bowl, when the coordinator pool was already diminished. That’s no fault of Seattle’s, it’s just the way this thing works. They clearly interviewed a few people — speaking to the likes of Eric Bienemy, Tanner Engstrand and Grubb and seemingly trying to see if they could get Mike Kafka out of the Giants. Chip Kelly’s name was mentioned too. Going with Grubb, who’d been part of an inspired effort at the University of Washington, was a decent roll of the dice.

However, it might simply be that he isn’t going to be able to align an offense to match Macdonald’s vision. We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks. If the running game continues to stumble like it is at the moment, I suspect we might see a change. The Seahawks gig could be attractive too — you’d have full control of the offense and getting things right could lead to big opportunities in the future.

Pete Carroll accepted after the 2010 season that Jeremy Bates wasn’t aligned to his vision for the team and he made a change — bringing in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell as co-coordinators. Macdonald might make a similar change.

Could they target a fired Head Coach (Doug Pederson? Brian Daboll?), go back to their original list (Mike Kafka? Tanner Engstrand? Chip Kelly?) or review new names? Scottie Montgomery is Associate Head Coach and looks after the running backs in Detroit. They’re doing pretty well. Marcus Brady is Jim Harbaugh’s passing-game coordinator in LA. Will Klint Kubiak be available, New Orleans’ somewhat highly rated offensive coordinator? Is Josh McCown ready for an opportunity after spending a year with Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota? Do they go internal with someone like Jake Peetz for the sake of familiarity?

Or do they retain faith in Grubb working this out and instead focus on fixing the offensive line? Is that merely enough?

Let’s not forget, the Seahawks didn’t have a great O-line in 2011 but they ran effectively. In the 2012 off-season, they were able to use their first two draft picks on Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner to take the defense to another level. It’d be beneficial not to be handcuffed to O-line draft picks and have the flexibility to keep adding to the defense if they can — either by finding veteran answers in free agency or by having a staff that can get more juice out of the players they already have (although I still think there are worthy O-liners in the 2025 class who could and should be targeted).

I think a few coaching tweaks will happen in the off-season regardless of Grubb’s future. That should be expected now that Macdonald and John Schneider have had a year to assess. At the end of the year, though, short of a really good run to finish the season, I think the future of the offensive coordinator will be one of the top three storylines — along with how they address the offensive line and what they do with the contract situations involving D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith.

Instant reaction: Seahawks defense dominates Cardinals in key NFC West win

November 24, 2024 /

This is the defense we’ve been waiting for years to see.

Physical, smothering, capable of shutting down NFC West foes. It’s been a three-week run that makes you believe this unit is heading in the right direction.

Clearly shifting out Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson has had a major impact. Aside from that though, everything just feels far more connected.

In a game like this it would’ve been easy to commit to taking away the inside run with James Conner, leaving Kyler Murray opportunities to break contain and run for a ton of yards. They were able to restrict and limit Murray while also making Conner a non-factor in the game. That’s impressive.

Tre McBride collected yards but Arizona never felt truly threatening. Meanwhile, the pass-rush created havoc up front. This was about as comprehensive and impressive performance as we’ve seen in years by the defense.

Leonard Williams led the way with an incredible effort. How often do you see a defensive linemen with his size recording 2.5 sacks, three TFL’s, a pass deflection and four quarterback hits? It’s the best individual display by a Seahawks defender since Jadeveon Clowney wrecked the 49ers in 2019.

Williams had a sack rushing the edge, he consistently shot gaps in the interior and he overpowered Arizona’s guards and center multiple times.

Devon Witherspoon had a strong outing — including the key play to force Murray to throw an interception to Coby Bryant leading to a pick-six. Julian Love was excellent. The linebackers again played a solid, efficient game.

This is a defense you can believe in again and look forward to watching. Kudos to the team for making the necessary changes to turn the corner. They’ve gone from hopeless to highly effective during the season. If they keep this up, they’ll have a chance to win the NFC West.

As the defense progresses though, the offense sadly is regressing. It was painful watching the Seahawks try to run the ball today. There’s no movement up front. Geno Smith seemed to mix between having no time to throw thanks to the O-line or occasionally he took too long to get the ball out. Either way it led to pressure. Smith’s interception was a big error that almost turned the game — and there’s no getting away from the fact that he continues to mix between the sublime and the ridiculous in another seasons of contrasting highs and lows.

The big positive was Jaxon Smith-Njigba who continues to shine as he enjoys a breakout second season. It was also another good outing for Abe Lucas. Yet I can’t help but feel this offense isn’t what Macdonald wants. The O-line might be influencing a lot of their play calls but you don’t appoint a Harbaugh protégé to be throwing the ball in the rain with a handsome lead in the fourth quarter. I’m not convinced Macdonald and Ryan Grubb are that aligned right now and the offense often jumps between dysfunctional and broken and suddenly explosive and productive. You don’t need Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson to run the ball either — and they’re not finding solutions.

Don’t just take my word for it:

Some will argue time will be a healer but I’m already starting to think Macdonald might want a different approach next year.

That’s a bigger conversation for another time. Today the defense deserves the bulk of the attention and the Seahawks will head to New York next week with an excellent chance of extending their winning run to three games.

Curtis Allen’s week twelve watch notes (vs Arizona)

November 24, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

During the bye week, we talked about our Third Quarter Goals for the Seahawks. How are they doing?

Win A Division Game

Check. A slump-busting win against a rival turned the Seahawks’ season from a potential spiraling disaster into something more promising. Not to mention it banged the Niners around a bit.

Figure Out A Way to Improve the Offensive Line

Something must give with the three interior players though.  What is it?  A midnight cut?  A very public in-game benching of an underperforming player that shocks the rest of the unit into performing?

Check. The stunning retirement of Connor Williams paved the way for an outstanding start by Olu Oluwatimi. An 80 PFF grade was just what the Seahawks needed.

As was a return to the game by Abe Lucas. He played the bulk of the snaps and was effective in his first game back. Even better, he appears to be ready to assume the position full-time from here on out.

It was an impressive display. But the season has not turned just yet. One goal remains.

Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts

Now this will take some work.

After a brilliant game against Atlanta, the Seahawks returned home against the Bills and were flat in a brutal loss.

A loss to the Rams that was doomed by turnovers was followed up with a gritty, physical win in San Francisco.

The organization that has been so inconsistent, so dodgy for the first half of the season has a real chance to show what has been going on behind the scenes this week. Proof that they are building a cohesive team with a real vision would be more readily accepted with a win against the Cardinals today.

This game sets up very interestingly for them. Arizona has some similarities to the Falcons team the Seahawks handled in Week seven. They have a dynamic running game featuring explosive runners, they have talent at the Tight End and Wide Receiver positions and on defense they are one of the NFL’s worst at pressuring the passer.

The way the game against Atlanta played out would be a great model for this game:

— No turnovers and only five penalties

— On defense, contain the running game early and force a couple of punts – do NOT let the opponent’s running game take the pace of the game over

— On offense, mix the run and pass and build an early lead to take them out of their game

— Unleash the defense when the Cardinals get desperate and abandon the running game

Is that doable against Arizona? Yes. Washington did it against them in Week Four. They ran the ball 37 times and Jayden Daniels had a very Geno Smith-esque game, throwing 30 times with 26 completions for 233 yards. They built a 17-7 halftime lead (just like Seattle did against Atlanta) and then poured on the gas in the second half. The Cardinals were only able to get eight meaningful run snaps in the second half as the Commanders took a big lead. Kyler Murray was sacked four times and was unable to make many of his signature explosive plays.

So how does Seattle turn in that kind of game?

Contain Arizona’s Offensive Weapons

James Conner’s name is never mentioned when fans talk about the top Running Backs in the NFL. He is not among the top-10 Running Backs in attempts, yards, or touchdowns.

But believe me when I say he is the engine that makes the Cardinal offense go. How? He moves the chains.

Conner has 47 first downs so far this season on only 159 attempts. He and David Montgomery of the Lions are the most efficient runners in the NFL, gaining first downs on 29% of their rushes, far and away the top two. He is both Kyler Murray’s tone-setter and his safety valve when his targets downfield are covered.

How does he do it? With toughness and tenacity. Conner is the NFL’s leading tackle-breaker. He will not go down. You have to take him down.

Watch him shirking off tackles to get 33 yards and essentially win the game for Arizona in Week Seven:

You must have a tackling plan for Conner. Otherwise, the Cardinals will just keep giving him the ball and keep chewing the clock.

Thankfully the Seahawks have Earnest Jones and Tyrice Knight coming off extremely solid performances against Christian McCaffrey. In the past, McCaffrey had broken tackles at will against the Seahawks. Last Sunday, he could not.

Again, we are talking about consistency. Sunday was a great game against San Francisco. But the defense has to buckle their chinstraps and do it all over again this week.

Defending Conner well is a huge part of making this game a successful one for the Seahawks. Four of his five lowest-impact games this season have been Cardinals losses.

Conner keeps the Cardinal defense off the field. They are not the strength of this team at all. If he keeps eating away at the clock, opposing offenses have less time to strike.

Trey McBride has blossomed into one of the best Tight End threats in the NFL. He currently is in the top-five for many categories in his position and Arizona will use his athletic talents liberally to move the ball downfield.

Arizona deploys McBride not unlike how San Francisco does with George Kittle. He has a basic set of routes to run – your standard six yards and turn and show your number to the Quarterback kind of stuff. But he frequently is schemed open very effectively, in a ‘how did that guy get so wide open?’ kind of way.

Have a look at :32 of this video Nate Tice has put together:

McBride starts on the right side of the line, moves to his left as the whole Offensive Line does and as Kyler Murray breaks to his right in a misdirection move, watch McBride. He’s sneaking left across the defense (with his head even down not to attract attention) and then sprints into the open flat and Murray reverses course and hits him for a big gain topped off with a hurdle.

How do you defend that? By following the ‘Kittle Rules’ we have talked about in previous posts. When the offense breaks huddle, every safety and every linebacker needs to spot #85. And if he is lined up tight against the Offensive Line, the man over him absolutely cannot give him a free release. Chip him, get in his way, whatever it takes to disrupt his route. If you can do that even a little, he will not be able to get into a rhythm with Kyler Murray and that means more punts.

As for Kyler Murray — he has come full circle back to being a dynamic weapon on offense, with some fabulous plays with his arm and his feet this season. How can the Seahawks effectively defend him?

His game is always evolving. In 2020 we talked about flooding coverage and take advantage of his inaccuracy. He got more accurate.

In 2021 we talked about taking advantage of his tendency to scramble by deploying delayed blitzes.

In 2022 we diagrammed a predictable playbook the Cardinals were deploying with Murray.

So what’s the plan for 2024?

Good coverage and a real blitzing plan.

This year, Murray has been so successful with a combination of McBride and Conner, his first read is usually open. In the past, if his first read was unavailable, he would either take off running or scramble around to uncover another receiver. This year, it happens so infrequently at times he is hesitant and it has cost him.

If the Seahawks can chip McBride like we showed above, or have an eye on him at all times to show Murray he is not wide open when that sneaky scheme they like to run is called, it takes the edge off his game and forces him to make decisions.

With such good first read options, a delayed blitz will only be effective in small doses that are timed very well. That does not mean they should never blitz though.

This year, when blitzed, Murray is completing 54.4% of his throws. When facing standard sets, he is completing 74%. That disparity is too big not to take advantage of.

What I am proposing is a combination of blitzing up the middle and coaching the edge players like Boye Mafe and Derick Hall to keep contain on those plays. Do not get too far upfield, or cut too far inside, leaving a whole side of the field for Murray to escape to.

No. Let the blitz come up the middle from Ernest Jones or Devon Witherspoon and when Murray sidesteps it, the edges will be there to clean the play up.

You may also occasionally try a stunt with your four basic linemen. Watch Chris Williams force Murray out of the pocket with inside rush and DeMarcus Watson stunting around to cut off Murray’s escape lane.

With the poor pass rush ability of the Cardinal defense and the Seahawks (and especially Geno Smith) no doubt will be riding a wave of confidence coming off a big win. If the Seattle defense can pull off one or more of these containments on the Cardinal offense, it could be a very successful day.

Some Offensive Notes

— The Cardinals are #31 in the NFL on third down conversions allowed on defense, at a whopping 47.97%. In away games? Dead last, conceding 57.45%. Fifty-seven percent! The Seahawks must take advantage.

— At that rate, how are they not regularly getting blown out? They are the #9 defense in the Red Zone. The Seattle offense is #16 in Red Zone scoring. Feels like Ken Walker, AJ Barner, Zach Charbonnet and (maybe) Noah Fant will need to make their presence felt in the Red Zone to keep the pressure on the Cardinal offense.

— The Cardinals might be D.K. Metcalf’s toughest opponent. In nine games he has only two touchdowns and has not broken the 60-yard barrier in receiving yards. None of us would mind if he had a big game today.

— Arizona’s pass rush is nothing to fear. They are bottom-10 in pressure rate and sacks. They also rarely blitz, preferring to rush four and drop everyone else in coverage. Geno Smith’s challenge will likely be different this week – reading the defense and finding the passing lanes instead of running for his life. It might take a little getting used to. But once Smith gets in rhythm, watch out. Perhaps the Seahawks can assist that a bit with some short early throws.

— Quarterbacks are completing 73.9% of their passes when they line up under center against Arizona. They may have a plan to flood coverage but it would appear you can open up lanes by drawing the linebackers in with an effective running game and play-action.

— I know PFF isn’t the gold standard but look at Arizona’s interior defensive linemen with the most snaps this year and their grades — old friend L.J.Collier (46.9), Dante Stills (54.3) and Roy Lopez (51.8). I do not think there will be a better matchup for Laken, Olu and Bradford this season. Make the most of it, fellas.

Scouting notes from the last two weeks of college football

November 21, 2024 /

Texas defensive back could be on Seattle’s radar

I wasn’t even aware that Texas’ Jahdae Barron was draft eligible. What a mistake. I watched the Arkansas game at the weekend and thought, not for the first time this year, ‘this guy will be a high pick one day’. I searched his name and saw he wasn’t jut eligible, he was a Senior.

I’ve watched all of Texas’ games this year and he has consistently stood out. He is legitimately one of the most fun players to watch in college football. You can’t block him with receivers and run stretch plays to the outside or throw receiver screens. He will get off the block and hit the ball-carrier with a real punch. Barron flies around the field and plays with the intensity and aggression usually reserved for bigger linebackers. You match this with his ability in coverage, his obvious awareness on the field and his ball skills and you’re talking about a fascinating player.

You can move him around in different spots but I think his best position will ultimately be as a hybrid. He’s played 377 snaps at cornerback, 79 in the slot, 12 at free safety, 86 in the box and six on the line this season. I think some teams will compare him to Devin Witherspoon both in playing style and talent. I’m not sure he’ll end up going sixth overall but I wouldn’t be surprised if he enjoys a similar rise through the draft process.

The thing that stands out frequently is his ability to come up to the line and play the run with aggression. He’s able to get off blocks and hit. Barron only has four missed tackles all season — not bad for a 5-11, 200lbs defensive back who isn’t just lined up at outside corner. He’s very physical for his size.

He has four interceptions and five PBU’s in 2024, with ample opportunity to collect more with Texas expected to make the playoffs. You can see he plays with great instinct and football IQ to execute the scheme. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. As a corner there are very few concerns about his transition which adds to the promise he’ll show if you want to use him in complex coverage situations, misdirect or even just play him at corner if needs be. His balls skills are excellent.

The final positive is the way he speaks and commands himself. Team mates rave about his attitude and leadership. He’s a very mature, well spoken, driven individual.

I’ve added him immediately to the horizontal board as a player I’d take in round one. I also think he could be an option for the Seahawks.

We can all agree that the offensive line should be a priority in the off-season. However, in recent years the Seahawks under John Schneider have adopted a very clear approach to the draft. They’ve stuck to their board and taken best player available. They haven’t reached for specific positions.

Look at this year. All the late buzz was about Seattle potentially drafting a cornerback in round one — Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold. The feeling was Byron Murphy wouldn’t last to the 16th pick. If he was off the board, the chatter pre-draft was that the Seahawks might go cornerback instead. After the draft Schneider even made reference to how good the two cornerbacks were.

There’s nothing to suggest they’ll deviate from this approach in 2025. As of today, I don’t think they’ll force an O-line pick early if the value doesn’t match up with their board. It’s possible a player like Alabama left guard Tyler Booker ticks a value and need box. If they see him as more of a day-two pick, like some do, they will potentially just keep drafting best player available.

In this draft class, it could be another defender. Malaki Starks will be off the board if they pick where they are currently slated to pick at #16. Barron could be a strong alternative. He’s played a lot of college football, he has excellent tape, he has A+ character, he’s physical, he’s versatile and he can be used in a number of ways by Mike Macdonald.

When I think of the type of personality the Seahawks like to draft, it’s Jahdae Barron. His interviews are all-time. Watch this and you’ll see what I mean:

For what it’s worth, he mentioned he trained with Quandre Diggs over the summer and that he grew up looking up to him. He says that he attended Texas vs West Virginia when Geno Smith was quarterback for WVU and that he ‘got Geno’s towel’ from the game.

Jahdae Barron is definitely a name to keep an eye on.

Defensive linemen also catch the eye

I’ve had another Texas player, Alfred Collins, on my radar for two seasons. Last year I started the year giving him a tentative mid-round grade but he was outplayed by Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat and struggled to make an impact. The talent and upside has always been there and he’s showing it in recent weeks. His play has elevated, he looks athletic and dynamic and he’s playing with great effort. It’s always been there for Collins and he has every chance to be a day-two pick in the 2025 class.

Nebraska’s Ty Robinson is a player I finally had a chance to study last week and I really like his combination of size, power, quickness and disruptive ability. To me he looks like a player who might have a few hidden special traits that’ll emerge at the combine. It’s easy to picture him impacting the NFL and with his frame and size — don’t be surprised if he ends up being a riser in the pre-draft process.

It’s very difficult to get Marshall tape to watch Mike Green. I’ve been looking for clips for weeks and have been able to piece things together. He’s so quick off the edge and shows some dynamism as a rusher. Hopefully he goes to the Senior Bowl so we can see how he gets on in the 1v1’s. Based on the pass rush flashes he’s shown, round two feels like a very reasonable grade.

Finally, Ole Miss duo Jared Ivey and Princely Umanmielen quite often leave you wanting more. However, against Georgia they caused constant problems. A strong end to the season for both could put them in a great position to enhance their draft stock.

Bring on Ohio State vs Indiana

I can’t wait to watch Kurtis Rourke in this game. He’s an intriguing player who is quite difficult to project for the next level. Delivering a strong performance against the Buckeyes’ big-name defense will be a statement.

Plays like this against Michigan are why he’s interesting:

The player right in his face is future top-five pick Mason Graham. Rourke stands tall under pressure and lofts this ball perfectly downfield without ideal base. This is a 45-yard touch pass with a brilliant defensive lineman coming after you. Teams will notice plays like this.

Meanwhile, I thought Will Howard had one of his better performances against Northwestern — although he’s still too inconsistent and streaky to really believe he can be a factor in the NFL as a starter. Even so, this could be another opportunity, as he had against Oregon, to win a big game.

Throws like this show that he’s a very capable passer:

Howard just has this tendency to produce face-palm moments at any second, undermining the great combination of size and athleticism he has.

Garrett Nussmeier should return to LSU next year but…

I thought he played well against Florida and the blame really needs to go to the rest of his offense for a bad loss. He was pressured 20 times and sacked seven times as the offensive line laid another egg. It’s the fourth time this year he’s faced 16+ pressures in a game. There were also four dropped passes — a season high for LSU. He had a touchdown pass called back on an avoidable offensive pass interference call. Late in the game, trailing by seven points, he converted two ‘must have’ fourth downs, getting into a goal-to-go situation. Then a false start backed him up, the coordinator called a run on 2nd and 12 and gave him a near impossible conversion situation on 3rd and 12. He got no help.

Look at this throw from the game:

This is why he is so highly rated. There are so few college quarterbacks capable of delivering that play. His technical quality, accuracy, ability to handle adversity and throw with anticipation and timing is fantastic. He has thrown more NFL-level passes than any other quarterback in college football this year. Unsurprisingly, he’s also thrown some bad interceptions and made some mistakes. Let’s not forget this is his first season as a starting QB.

Having waited so long to start at LSU, we’ll see if he decides it’s time to turn pro. If he does, I think he’ll go in round one because the potential is there to be a very accomplished quarterback. However, he will really benefit from more playing time.

You want your players to play in attack mode at two positions

I mentioned this on my stream with Jeff Simmons on Tuesday. Every year I try and learn as much as I can about how people in the league scout. I’m lucky enough to be able to pick the brains of some people and when I asked about scouting centers earlier this year, I was told to look for players who shoot their hands quickly and set to be the aggressor from the snap. It’s one of the reasons I thought Olu Oluwatimi’s performance against San Francisco was so encouraging as he was most certainly playing this way on Sunday.

That said, it’s not easy to find a college center who consistently plays with this attitude. There are a lot of passive players who will absorb blocks and look to do just enough. It can be even worse at linebacker. This is another position where you want to see an attacking mindset. You want to see a prospect who can identify a play, then fly to the ball. Ideally they can work through traffic, sprint to the sideline, drop into coverage and disengage from blocks. A high degree of quickness, agility and explosion is preferable. But more than anything you want to see violence — and that comes with your approach. Not just how you connect in the tackle when a ball carrier runs into your area.

Carson Schwesinger at UCLA plays in attack mode. I watched the game against Minnesota to check on Max Brosmer and came away highly impressed with the Bruins linebacker who made his life a misery. I wanted to watch more, absorbed two other games and he is extremely impressive. He flies to fill gaps and penetrate at the line. There’s ample evidence of him dropping in coverage with ease — but he can also adjust when a quarterback steps up and tries to scramble, flying to make the tackle. He avoids blocks well with shiftiness at the POA and diagnoses plays better than any other linebacker I’ve watched so far this year, including arguably Jalon Walker.

He doesn’t appear to have any athletic limitations or stiffness. Schwesinger is a capable rusher when sent to the QB and has been able to power through blocks by running backs and tight ends. The way he dropped for his mid-range interception against Iowa is teaching tape for linebackers in that situation. He had a second pick in the game — a really athletic play plucking the football after a full dive right as it was about to hit the turf.

Testing results will be big for him but at the moment I’m giving him a tentative second round grade. He looks tailor made to be a starter in the NFL.

Quick-hitters

— Every time I watch Harold Fanin Jr I get more excited. He has a chance to be the next big-time pass-catching tight end in the league. He’s a very exciting receiving threat and if he tests well, I wouldn’t be that surprised if he sneaks into the back-end of round one in this draft class.

— Georgia left guard Dylan Fairchild looked as good as he has all year against Ole Miss and Tennessee. I like his size, mobility, ability to adjust to regain position and he can control blocks. However, you don’t see a lot of big-time power at the point of attack and you’d like to see more. I think he can get stronger but will need to at the next level to be a top player.

— Travis Hunter’s all-round performance vs Utah (a pick off a tip, a highlight-reel spectacular catch and a miraculous rushing touchdown) all but puts a bow on him being a top-two pick in this draft. I think the only person who could stop him going first overall is Mason Graham.

— Carson Beck got a lot of positive attention for his performance against Tennessee but with the exception of a couple of great throws, I still think the same issues showed up on tape. His ball placement is way off. He isn’t very accurate. He almost had another terrible interception in the red zone when trailing 17-14. I don’t think he’s rebuilding his stock and I think all this year has shown is that the Raiders got an absolute steal with Brock Bowers — a player who had no business lasting to the 13th overall pick.

— Regulars will know how much I rate Ricky White the receiver at UNLV. The fact he has now blocked four kicks this year just adds to how appealing he is. He can be a special teams ace right away and eventually work into a dynamic receiving threat.

— I was impressed with Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles against Northwestern. He’s doing a much better job letting the play develop and then attacking with decisiveness and you can see he’s settling into his position switch from safety. If he keeps playing like he did on Saturday, he has a chance to go earlier than I initially projected as a late round pick.

— Speaking of linebackers, I think Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell is playing at a level where he could easily end up in the top-25. His play just continues to grow game after game. I also had a chance to watch some more of Ole Miss’ Chris Paul Jr this week. I really like the way he works to the sideline, plays with great effort, can sift through traffic and has the attack mode I spoke about earlier. Paul Jr can also drop with relative ease and I’ve decided to give him a tentative third round grade, up from the fourth round mark I originally gave him.

Why the Geno Smith debate online is making it less fun to be a Seahawks fan

November 18, 2024 /

The Geno Smith discourse is impacting my enjoyment of this football season.

Some of you will think this is mad. Others will agree, perhaps silently. I’ll try and explain what I mean.

Immediately after the 49ers win, it started.

If you think Smith is elite, a franchise quarterback, ‘the guy‘, ‘him‘, worthy of a massive extension at the soonest possible moment or something else along these lines, congratulations. You officially “know ball“.

It’s also, it seems, really important that you make everyone else who may not entirely share your argument know that they are idiots.

Just ignore it, you might say. There’s no escape from it. People you follow on social media will dabble in this. Or they’ll retweet people who do. You may not wish to unfollow them. Or, you’ll have likeminded folk who share your view send you the occasional screen grab so you can participate in a collective eye roll.

It’s not just one group. When Smith has a bad game, there’s a similar amount of nonsense from the other extreme side of the debate. You’ll get people saying he’s no good, needs to be replaced ASAP, send Sam Howell in for the next game etc.

Every game is just one big toxic opportunity to have it out about Seattle’s quarterback on the internet.

Please, stop.

I’m not claiming to speak for the majority. I do think I speak for a reasonable portion of the fan base though, who fit somewhere between the two extremes on Smith, when I say I am well and truly bored to death by this.

Whether you like it or not, Smith’s future is going to be a storyline for the next off-season. How the rest of this season plays out will determine what eventually happens — but the debate isn’t going anywhere. And neither should it, as we’ll talk about in a bit.

Also whether you like it or not, Smith is clearly a net positive for the Seahawks in 2024. He is far better than Howell and until an obviously superior alternative emerges, there’s a very reasonable chance he will continue to be Seattle’s starter indefinitely.

The sooner we just accept both of these things the better. So much energy is being channeled in a tit-for-tat online battle on this subject and it’s taking a lot of joy out of wins like yesterday. I know I’m not alone in thinking this because several people have said the same thing to me privately — and I suspect others will say the same in the comments section in response to this article.

Personally I think Smith has played mostly very well this year. He’s faced a high degree of adversity because of the poor play of the offensive line and a non-existent running attack. The Seahawks rely a ton on their quarterback in their current form.

Physically he’s extremely impressive, particular for a player who recently turned 34. His arm strength combined with his willingness to attempt throws many quarterbacks wouldn’t dare to attempt makes for an often entertaining outcome, win or lose. There are throws over the last three years from Smith that are legitimately as good as anything you’ll see in the NFL.

There are also moments of erraticism. We saw it with the interception on Sunday. He is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL this year. Some clearly haven’t been his fault but he’s also recorded 11 turnover worthy plays in his last eight games per PFF. He does feel like a player who will give an opponent a decent shot at a turnover per game.

From about six games into the 2022 season, I’ve consistently said I’m perfectly happy with Geno Smith being Seattle’s starter until a clear, superior option comes along. I’m not sure that player is in the 2025 draft. If he is, it won’t be right away as a rookie. They may well draft someone to develop but I think it’s a near certainty they won’t be taking a quarterback next April in round one with the intention of starting them next year.

Equally, I don’t see a clear upgrade on the veteran market either. I don’t think the Seahawks should ‘get rid’ of Smith just because he’s maybe not as trendy or young as some other quarterbacks. The Chiefs played a blinder trading for Alex Smith and then biding their time to draft Patrick Mahomes. Eventually, the Seahawks will probably have to do something similar. But there’s no rush. They don’t ‘have‘ to do that in 2025. With Smith, they can wait for a player they love, not force a bad decision to aggressively pursue someone they only like.

While taking this approach, I am still sceptical that Smith will lead the Seahawks to the promise land. At the very least he will need a top supporting cast. I appreciate virtually every other quarterback is in the same boat. The thing is, the Seahawks aren’t close to having a top supporting cast. In order to build that, they might need to create the cap space and resource to construct a team that is placed to be a serious contender.

Overthecap has the Seahawks $15m in the red next season for effective cap space. It’s unavoidable to discuss what is best for the future of the team, with a fair amount of money saving required. Should they extend D.K. Metcalf’s contract and commit a major salary to a receiver? Do they need to make difficult decisions on players like Uchenna Nwosu and Dre’Mont Jones? Is it inevitable that franchise favourite Tyler Lockett is coming to the end of his time in Seattle?

Everything should be on the table — including the debate over Smith’s future. He is due $38.5m next year, with a further $2m inevitably on the cards when he hits the yardage escalator in his contract. It’s nothing to do with Smith’s perceived quality that you have a conversation about his future, much in the way you’re not questioning Metcalf over his.

How do the timelines of Smith and Metcalf’s peak years aline with Seattle’s ability to build a team to contend? Let’s say you pay them $45m and $32m a year respectively for the next three years. You secure their futures but will it prevent you from doing much of anything to make changes to key areas such as the offensive line and defense? Are you ultimately going to be left with the same team that has gone 9-8, 9-8 and now 5-5 over the last two-and-a-half seasons?

That isn’t to say you definitely can’t keep both, extend their contracts and still improve the team. The point is, simply, that any conversation should be on the table. The Seahawks are not in a healthy cap situation and the reality is it might take 2-3 years to get into a position where they are good enough in key areas to be a serious contender. By that point, Geno Smith will be 37. Is paying a massive contract at quarterback, with the team in its current form, the best plan? It might well be — but there’s nothing wrong with considering alternatives. After all, the team swapped one expensive quarterback (Russell Wilson) for a much cheaper one (Geno Smith) in 2022 and didn’t suffer.

Also, what amount becomes ‘too much’ for Smith? The current trend in the NFL is to give any quarterback who has either been drafted early or shown any promise an enormous deal. Is that the right approach to take? Or should teams set out to try and find greater value at the position, as the Seahawks did in 2022? The Vikings and Steelers are doing well with a cheaper approach to the position this year, while well-coached rookies are also succeeding.

Adding to this is the fact Smith is contracted for 2025. The Seahawks, technically, don’t have to do anything. Given Smith’s age, it won’t be a terrible plan to go year-by-year. He’s next scheduled to be a free agent in 2026, the year he turns 36. Given he didn’t have a hot free agency market in 2023, it might be best to let him establish his market in the future — if indeed the situation remains as it is today in about 15 months time.

None of this feels unreasonable to me. Yet online there is this quite aggressive undercurrent from a select number of people with prominent followings. The term ‘Geno haters’ is used frequently. It’s often implied you are pretty stupid, ignorant or simply don’t know anything about football unless you believe Smith is essentially Seattle’s answer to Josh Allen.

And again, I understand there are also fans who refuse to accept Smith ever plays well or is deserving of praise. For whatever reason though, they seem easier to ignore. They tend to be people with small (or no) followings. They aren’t on podcasts, streams, blogs or work for big media outlets. They aren’t names within Seahawks twitter. They are, by and large, just a very vocal minority.

They definitely contribute to the energy draining experience of this whole debate but I do hold the other side mostly responsible. They are far more aggressive and personal.

The Seahawks win a big game? Great. Time to put on your armour and go to war with everyone who doesn’t share your view on Geno Smith. It’s time for battle. Charge! Hand me that smart phone, I’m going in.

Maybe it’s just shit-posting and I’ve fallen into the trap? Maybe it’s doing whatever works for content creation and views/clicks? Maybe it’s just important to associate yourself with a ‘take’ these days? Whatever it is, it’s making this team less fun to follow.

I remember the days when a great win was celebrated together. Everyone just sharing the joy of victory. It’s starting to feel like some people are more invested in their position on Geno Smith than they are actually being a Seahawks fan.

I suppose it’s not surprising, though. This is the same fanbase that drew battle lines over ‘running backs don’t matter’ and spent a few years warring over that. Then there was the ‘Let Russ Cook’ cult until he was traded, then it was ‘spend every week being horrible about Russ’ instead. We had the ‘non-believers’ slamming anyone who dared to think there was a smidgen of a chance Wilson might be dealt (despite all of the glaring evidence showing it was a possibility). Now it’s Geno Smith’s turn to be in the middle of the latest thing where everyone has to pick a side and you’re either with us or against us.

We’re all Seahawks fans. Can’t we just get back to that?

Instant reaction: Seahawks FINALLY beat the 49ers

November 17, 2024 /

It’s finally happened. After five long, desperate performances against the San Francisco 49ers, all culminating in very similar losses, the Seahawks have finally beaten them.

I think the most pleasing thing aside from the result was the different look to this game. The familiar ‘Seahawks dig themselves a hole, the 49ers capitalise, there’s a little bit of a rally that goes nowhere and the Niners eventually win comfortably’ was getting old. This had to be different.

Thankfully it was. The Seahawks made it a close contest and made having the last serious possession count. Suddenly the NFC West is wide open again and instead of mild disinterest in the Arizona game next week, it actually looks like one to look forward to and potentially savour.

It does have to be acknowledged that San Francisco were playing without George Kittle, so often a thorn in Seattle’s side. Trent Williams was banged up. Nick Bosa played through clear pain before eventually exiting. All 20 of Seattle’s points came without Bosa on the field.

Even so, the 49ers still had ample talent and were looking for a third straight win. It never felt like a game Kyle Shanahan had control of. For probably only the second time this season, the Seahawks made the game the type of contest they wanted to play. I don’t think they achieved that even in their three early season wins. Against Atlanta and today in Santa Clara, they dictated the flow.

Defensively they deserve a lot of credit. It’s a second reasonable showing in a row. It wasn’t flawless — the Jauan Jennings play on 3rd and 11 where he carried three defenders over the line to gain, with pre-snap confusion on his side of the field, had me (and I’m sure you) shouting at the screen in frustration. The Seahawks also had some iffy moments in the secondary.

However, they contained Christian McCaffrey and limited the run-game damage, created just enough pressure on Brock Purdy to be a factor and overall just played a mostly disciplined, organised four quarters. That’s a big upgrade on what we saw a few weeks ago.

Offensively it was another up and down game. The two touchdown drives were fantastic, especially the final one for obvious reasons. At times the play-design and scheming was eye-catching and clever. Geno Smith’s improv running the ball to win the game was inspired. Then there was the awful interception to start the second half, the second game in a row where they failed to get a yard on two plays on 3rd and 4th down and a continuing inability to unleash a serious running attack.

Olu Oluwatimi wasn’t noticeable, which is probably a good thing. It was good to see Abe Lucas back (and nobody should expect him to shut-out even an injured Bosa on his return). The two guards didn’t wreck the game. Yet Charles Cross seemed to have a bad day.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really coming along and is starting to look like the real deal. At the same time, are they ever going to find a way to get the most out of Ken Walker’s obscene potential? And why does Zach Charbonnet look so utterly ‘meh’?

The whole offense is one big melting pot of good and bad. I don’t know whether we’re seeing ample potential to believe Ryan Grubb is an O-line away from glory or whether he’s likely to be a one-and-done failed experiment.

I’ll leave that for another day. Ultimately the offense got the job done at the end and for once, it’s the Seahawks who are victorious against the 49ers. It’s really good to say that again.

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