Author: Rob Staton (Page 341 of 424)

There are two reasons why I think Sheldon Richardson could end up being Seattle’s ideal 2013 draft pick. Firstly, the team needs to find a way to create more pressure using its base defense. The second reason was all down to something Pete Carroll said in one of his press conferences last week.

Red Bryant was a major doubt for the Chicago Bears game due to injury. When asked who would replace Bryant at defensive end, Carroll answered Alan Branch. Greg Scruggs would fill in at three technique.

Bryant is 323lbs and Branch is listed at 325lbs. I found it pretty fascinating that Carroll was so determined to keep size at that position. He could’ve started Scruggs or Jason Jones at defensive end – with both seemingly capable of acting as a more orthodox five-technique. Instead he wanted to move an interior lineman to the outside at the expense of giving up 50lbs at tackle.

The role of Bryant has become pretty integral to this team. While some fans have questioned his impact this year, especially in light of the inconsistent pressure up front, there’s no doubt that Carroll intends to stick with this plan. He wants Bryant outside for a reason (we’ll come on to that in a moment). As a result, he’s also prepared to have a pretty unbalanced pass rush when using the base defense.

We discussed last week how important it was for Seattle to find more pressure within this scheme. Carroll and Gus Bradley are only rushing four most of the time. They aren’t blitzing all that much. It seems to me that they want to max out the potential for turnovers by playing tight against the run on early downs and putting teams into 3rd and long situations. And when they’re in third and long, they turn to speed. Bruce Irvin and Jason Jones join Chris Clemons for the ‘money down’. You can play nickel, you can create a situation where the chances of a turnover are increased. Quick pressure, force the mistake and have enough people in coverage to capitalise. It makes a lot of sense.

However – when teams are prepared to pass on early downs, quarterbacks are having a lot of time in the pocket. In the base defense, the line consists of Bryant, Branch, Clemons and Brandon Mebane. That’s a lot of size, but also a total reliance on Clemons for pressure. If you’re keeping Bryant in the line-up – and Pete Carroll is keeping Bryant in the line-up – the only place you can upgrade to create more pressure is defensive tackle.

The 4-3 under defense that Carroll is using lends a lot of weight to the philosophy created by Monte Kiffin. You shift the tackles away from the heart and strength of the offensive line, thus making it very difficult to double team the three-technique tackle. The nose tackle (Brandon Mebane) plays off the shoulder of the center. That, theoretically, creates a situation where the three technique and the LEO (Chris Clemons) are in 1vs1 situations with the left guard and left tackle. And that’s where the team is going to have success.

It does leave you light on one side of the line, which is why I think they like Red Bryant so much. He’s a space eater, he draws attention. And with the rest of the line favouring one side, there’s always the possibility you become easy to run against. Bryant takes away that advantage with his size. So while we can sit here and complain about a lack of pass-rush, Bryant is actually doing his job by simply stopping this team getting gashed consistently. He makes everything else tick. And his role will increase in importance the moment Seattle actually has a three technique who creates pressure.

Alan Branch isn’t a terrible defensive tackle. He’s just not a pass rusher. He’s playing 20-30lbs heavier than a prototypical three-technique and he doesn’t get a lot of penetration. Seattle should try and retain Branch as a useful rotational piece and a potential backup if Bryant or Mebane goes down. But really, he has to be upgraded on the base defense for this unit to maximise its potential. The Seahawks need a 290-300lbs three technique who won’t give up the run advantage they get with Branch, but can also take advantage of the scheme. As soon as you get someone collapsing the pocket inside, that’s when you’ll see the best of this defense.

Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson fits the bill to a tee.

I’ve seen him listed between 6-2 and 6-4 and anywhere between 290-295lbs. He has quite a solid, compact frame and ticks all of the boxes you’d look for from an interior rusher. He’s not a one trick pony and will mix up his speed and bull rushes. He has an explosive first step and he’s the most competitive defensive tackle I’ve seen since Ndamukong Suh. How many defensive tackles go for an interior pass rush, see the ball thrown to the sideline and then go after the receiver to try and make a play? Richardson is a tremendous athlete with an unmatched motor. He’s sparky, he wants to win and he gets in your face. That’ll rub some coaches and GM’s up the wrong way, but that’s exactly how you need to be to play this position.

Given the long list of positives, how is there any chance he falls anywhere close to Seattle’s pick? There are some perceived ‘downsides’. He’s pretty outspoken. He labelled Georgia’s style of play as ‘old man football’ in a press conference before the season opener. Georgia won handsomely. He talked trash about Alabama too, before Missouri were well beaten by the dominating Crimson Tide. Some GM’s won’t like that. It’s worth noting, Richardson backed up his words on both occasions. He played very well in both games. Perhaps he just needs a supporting cast good enough to back up his chatter?

There are other issues. He was suspended for a game this year for ‘unspecified reasons’, although Edward Aschoff at ESPN reported the following:

Sources close to the program told ESPN.com that Richardson was suspended because he missed a class multiple times and refused to go through the punishment given to him for missing the class.

He’s a former JUCO transfer and also missed spring practice and some of summer camp in 2011 while dealing with the NCAA on eligibility issues. Scouts INC also wrote the following in their report on Richardson: “Mental capacity and maturity level are being closely investigated by NFL scouts.”

Basically, Tim Ruskell probably wouldn’t draft this guy. Other active GM’s in this league might share that opinion. Richardson has the talent to be a top-ten pick, but could he drift into the teens or even the early 20’s due to character red flags? The depth at defensive tackle won’t work in his favor if concerns linger. Any team looking at the position in the top-20 will have multiple options. Even so, it’ll still be a big win for the Seahawks if he does make it to their pick, which appears likely to be in the second half of round one given the current 7-5 record.

And if you’re wondering just how well he fits a defense heavily influenced by Monte Kiffin, consider that he originally committed to USC in 2010. He failed to qualify at Missouri academically and spent two summers at the College of Sequoias in California. It’s during that time he decided to play for the Trojans. The reason? According to reports, he believed Kiffin’s guidance and the system at Southern Cal would best prepare him for the NFL. Eventually he reneged on that decision and chose Missouri. However, having played JUCO football in the state Pete Carroll coached and as a former 5-star recruit, he’s probably a player Seattle’s Head Coach has the inside track on. And if Carroll wants any further advice, I’m sure he’ll be on the phone to Monte Kiffin – who many are touting for a role with the Seahawks following his resignation at USC.

I’ve posted tape of Richardson versus Florida at the top of this piece. For three other games, click on this article and scroll to the bottom.

Check out the explosion off the snap at 2:10 in the video above. That’s elite anticipation and the kind of speed and burst the Seahawks are lacking at tackle. He’s into the backfield before his blocker – Chaz Green – has got out of his stance. Green, if you’re wondering, is a player considered by many to have future first round potential as an offensive tackle. Richardson hits the running back for a huge loss.

At the 2:50 mark, he blocks a field goal – getting a great push off the snap and sticking out an arm to deflect the kick. You can see a good example of his closing speed at 3:23, when he loops back around then initiates contact with a lineman and appears to be stopped. However, he disengages and still manages to hit the quarterback on a diving tackle to force an incomplete pass. Wondering how difficult Florida found it to stop Richardson in this game? Check out the ‘tackle’ by the interior lineman at 5:55 that drew a holding call. And if you want evidence of his work rate and willingness to look for the ball carrier, check his hussle at 6:53 to get the ball carrier down after two Missouri missed tackles.

Getting a player like Richardson in the line-up would enable the Seahawks to create more pressure on early downs, it’d help the LEO become more effective and the increased pass rush would likely increase the number of sacks and turnovers. This is by far the teams biggest need going into the off-season this year. Get a player like Richardson, and this team takes the next step on defense.

Of course, there are always alternatives. This is a deep class for defensive tackles as I mentioned. Plus I just have a hunch the Seahawks will monitor Randy Starks’ situation in Miami. The Dolphins might have to use the franchise tag on Jake Long, making it harder to keep Starks on the roster. He wouldn’t be cheap, but I can’t think of a more precious free agent signing for this team if he hits the market. Addressing this need pre-draft would allow the Seahawks to potentially concentrate on other areas such as linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver, tight end or the offensive line.

Brandon Coleman is 6-6 and runs away from defensive backs

The Seahawks passing game has come a long way in recent weeks. Russell Wilson looks increasingly comfortable, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are making plays and the tight ends are getting more involved too. However, the team is still ranked 31st in the NFL for yards per game. Is that an issue?

In many ways, absolutely not. Pete Carroll’s vision for the offense is based around a strong running game and by nature the Seahawks are not going to be throwing as much as other teams. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson – however good he’s looked recently – is still a rookie. The team is unlikely to burden him with too much of a workload. He’s averaging 25 throws a game and that seems about right for this offense. They have a good thing going at the moment with Wilson – and more throws won’t necessarily mean even more success. It could just as easily have a detrimental effect.

The Chicago Bears, surprisingly, are the one team in the NFL averaging less receiving yards per game than the Seahawks. That’s a team with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. They also sport an 8-3 record. The teams averaging the most yardage are the Detroit Lions (4-7) the Dallas Cowboys (5-6) and the New Orleans Saints (5-7). The Oakland Raiders are ranked eighth in the league for passing yards. Do we need to continue? Clearly receiving yards per game is a pretty irrelevant statistic when it comes to winning games.

In order to become a contender, the Seahawks need to find consistency. They have a good defense, a good offense and they can make plays on special teams. When all three units come together (vs New England, Dallas, New York), the results have been very promising. Too often, however, an entire unit has struggled and undermined the efforts of the others. Against Arizona and St. Louis, the offense never really got going and Seattle lost two very winnable games. The defense had their turn against Detroit and Miami, playing poorly in two last second defeats.

We’re unlikely to see that consistency emerge this season. You can’t rule it out – the New York Giants found it late last year and made a 9-7 record into a Super Bowl-winning season. The chances are this is a team that will continue to grow, be a bit frustrating for another year or two and like Atlanta or Houston, eventually emerge into a formidable outfit. Let’s not forget Seattle sports one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, with first or second year pro’s at many key positions.

Within that year or two, they’re going to have the opportunity to keep adding talent. And this is where we come back to the receiver situation. We’ve established the Seahawks don’t necessarily need to significantly improve their passing yards per game average, but are they still lacking that game changing receiver?

Matt Schaub (#13) and Andy Dalton (#15) are safely in the middle of the pack for passing attempts among starting quarterbacks. Yet the players they’re throwing to most – Andre Johnson (#3) and A.J. Green (#5) – are ranked much higher for production. Remember Jay Cutler and that league worst passing offense in terms of production? Cutler ranks #26 in the league for attempts (one place above Russell Wilson at #27) and yet Brandon Marshall is #6 in the NFL for receiving yards. Josh Freeman is #19 for attempts, Vincent Jackson is #9 for yardage. Seattle’s most productive receiver – Sidney Rice – is currently ranked #54 in the league for yardage. Golden Tate is at #80. Both players are behind Brandon LaFell, Donny Avery, Jeremy Kerley and Nate Washington.

It’d be unfair to be overly critical of Rice or Tate as both are doing fine jobs for Seattle in recent weeks. They’ve both been responsible for key victories. But is this an offense that lacks that one dynamic target? Someone who can feature alongside Rice and Tate and at least register enough yardage to overtake Greg Olsen for production? Someone who can work their way into becoming one of the most threatening pass-catchers in the league? The Seahawks might not need a hugely productive passing game overall to win, but they may need a better #1 target for Wilson. Of the top 15 receivers in the NFL for production, 12 feature on teams with at least a 7-4 record.

There’s likely to be a good crop of receivers available in next years draft. Markus Wheaton, Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins are all underrated due to a lack of elite size. Cordarrelle Patterson is a home-run hitter with game changing abilities. There are other players, such as Justin Hunter, who failed to live up to expectations in college but maintain an attractive skill set. There are tight ends like Tyler Eifert and Gavin Escobar who will probably be available after the first round.

However, the two players I’d focus on when looking for a dynamic passing threat are two players we’ve discussed already on this blog – Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) and Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford).

Coleman would be a work in progress and wouldn’t guarantee an early return if you draft him in round one. He plays like a redshirt freshman featuring in an offense that likes to run the ball as a priority. It’s easy to overvalue players based on college production – not every player is fortunate enough to feature in an extreme spread, air-raid offense. A.J. Green started three years at Georgia and never had a 1000 yard season. Justin Blackmon had 1782 yards in 2010 alone. In two years at Rutgers, Coleman has just 56 receptions for 1215 yards. More importantly though, he has 16 touchdowns – including ten this year.

He remains relatively inexperienced and he may hit a steep learning curve in the NFL. He’s going to have to learn to run a lot of different routes, he won’t be able to rely as much on pure size and reach (he’s 6-6 and 225lbs). However, Coleman is the most physically impressive receiver you’ll see not named Calvin Johnson.

You want to know what he’s capable of? If you missed Rutgers’ game against Louisville last night, check out this 85 yard touchdown on the Scarlet Knights’ first offense snap of the night. He makes a difficult grab between two defensive backs, turns up field and out-runs the defense. He’s sprinting away from cornerbacks at 6-6 and 225lbs. At that size he’s naturally going to be a threat in the red zone and you’re going to be able to ‘pull a Matt Stafford’ by throwing passes only Coleman has any chance of completing. Yet he has that extra dimension of being a tremendous open field runner and YAC specialist despite the height. He’s a rare specimen.

It’s not clear whether he intends to declare for the draft or not at this stage, but he is eligible and would clearly be the best receiver among the 2013 class. He’s a player whose best football will come in the NFL. He has the opportunity to be a superstar. For more information and game tape, see this piece I wrote on Coleman back in October.

Ertz is a very different player entirely. He has similar height (6-6, 252lbs) but would play tight end at the next level with a lot of blocking responsibility. While it might not seem like an obvious direction for a team looking for a difference making receiver, it’s worth noting how crucial the tight end position is becoming in the league. Of the top-40 receivers for yardage right now, six are tight ends. Everyone has seen the impact of Rob Gronkowski (6-6, 265lbs) and Jimmy Graham (6-7, 265lbs). The great thing about Ertz is he’s over 10lbs lighter and yet still run blocks better than both players did entering the league.

It’s rare to see such a strong blocking tight end playing with Ertz’s frame. Stanford are able to keep him at the line for any play call – run or pass – and it completely opens up their playbook. Ertz leads the Cardinal for receiving yards with 818 from 63 receptions – and yet he plays an equally crucial role blocking for the vastly underrated Stepfan Taylor (Seattle should be all over that guy, even if running back isn’t a need). Crucially in terms of his NFL stock, Ertz is capable of lining up as a pure receiver or in the slot. The entire NFL is looking for a tight end with Ertz’s skill set. He could be the next great, productive tight end in the league.

With Seattle running the ball as much as they do and trying to exploit the play action passing game, Ertz could become Russell Wilson’s best friend. And while it might not lead to the kind of partnership that dominates the highlight reels, there’s no reason why Ertz couldn’t come in and instantly become a productive pass catcher and blocker. He looks NFL ready, more so than another former Cardinal tight end Coby Fleener. The Seahawks essentially could use Ertz and Zach Miller in the same way Stanford uses Ertz and Levine Toilolo – providing a big boost to the running game and developing the play action game they like to utilise so much.

And as always – the most important thing is touchdowns rather than yardage. Like Coleman, Ertz excels in this area with 15 career scores.

Both players will have to declare for the draft to gain consideration for 2013. Both players may leave the board within the top-15 picks if they do turn pro. But if the Seahawks are looking for another dynamic receiving option, these two players will probably be near the top of the list. Along with the top defensive tackles (Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sylvester Williams) and the top linebackers (Alec Ogletree, C.J. Mosley) – the likes of Coleman and Ertz could be near the top of Seattle’s draft board next April.

Note – Sheldon Richardson turning pro

No surprises that Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson announced today he will enter the 2013 draft. He’s had a terrific year and only some lingering character concerns will keep him out of the top-15 picks. He’d be an ideal fit for the three-technique in Seattle and he’s one to focus on during the draft process. Expect a number of non-Bowl eligible prospects to announce their intentions now that we’re getting into December. And also keep an eye on the top underclassmen who are competing in the bowls. They’re always liable to reveal their intentions in post-game press conferences.

Below I’ve included Richardson’s tape vs Alabama, South Carolina and Georgia:

You’ll probably hear a lot about Sharrif Floyd over the next few months. He’s got the kind of back-story the media loves to wax lyrical over. You’ll probably feel like you know the guy personally by April. He’s a former 5-star recruit and top rated defensive tackle, who had to fight for everything he’s achieved. Floyd had a difficult upbringing, as noted by the AP:

Floyd grew up poor and has recounted the time when he wore the same clothes to elementary school every day for months at a time. His biological father died when he was 3 years old, and the man he thought was his father over the next 12 years “didn’t treat me right growing up,” he said. Floyd left home at 15, moved in with grandmother and then bounced around from coaches to friends to other relatives. Muschamp said Floyd still sends his grandmother part of his monthly Pell Grant money.

This is a player who grew up without parents, had to deal with severe financial difficulties and lived with whoever would take him in. As the AP states, he was living with his grandmother for a time – but he also lived with his guidance councillor and his high school coach. Anywhere that provided shelter. And in a few months time, he could be a first or second round NFL draft pick.

The mark of the man is summed up in the following story. Before he began his career with the Gators, he was invited to attend the annual U.S. Army All-American Combine for talented high school students. One problem – he couldn’t afford the trip to San Antonio Texas where the game was taking place (he was brought up in Philadelphia). To raise the cash he cooked brownies with the help of special-education students and sold them for several weeks at his school. He raised enough cash, made it to San Antonio and earned first-team all-combine honours when he got there. By the time he was ready to think about college, he was getting offers from all the big schools – Ohio State, North Carolina, Miami, USC, Florida and Penn State to name a few.

It’s safe to assume Pete Carroll knows about Floyd. He left USC to move to Seattle days before Floyd committed to Florida. We know Carroll likes to go back in for ‘the one who got away’ (Bruce Irvin turned down the chance to join USC in favour of West Virginia). So he’s one to monitor during the post-season.

Unfortunately the story doesn’t end with hardship merely leading into college. He was forced to sit out two games in 2011 after receiving what the NCAA describes as ‘impermissible benefits’. Having caught almost no breaks in his life previously, Floyd was finally helped out by a wealthy Philadelphia businessman named Kevin Lahn. Here’s the issue as the NCAA reported:

Receiving $2,500 cash over several months from an individual not associated with the university. Floyd used the money for living expenses, transportation and other expenses. In addition, he received impermissible benefits prior to enrollment, including transportation and lodging related to unofficial visits to several institutions.

This may sound familiar to the Michael Oher story, made famous by a (in my opinion) lousy film from which Sandra Bullock somehow won an Oscar. The difference here is – Oher’s adopted parents had ties to Ole Miss and the NCAA rightly investigated to see if his adoption and care had any significant impact on his decision to attend the school. They had to check to see if he’d basically been recruited by two Ole Miss boosters willing to sacrifice a bedroom for a left tackle. As far as I’m aware, Kevin Lahn has no connection to the Gators. Reports suggest he was a former booster at South Carolina, but apparently they disassociated themselves from Lahn after the NCAA ruling. For more information on the case, read this piece from the Orlando Sentinel.

The whole thing, to me, looks like a kid who finally got a break – and was then punished for getting that break. He’s since been adopted by the Lahn’s and will go on to become a pro-football player. It’ll be hard earned when he gets to the NFL.

So what about his play? He features both inside at tackle and also plays the edge too. He’s quite effective lining up as a five-technique and that might prove to be his best position going forward. He’s improved as a pass rusher this year, finding ways to get into the backfield and flashing a little more burst. Last season he looked a bit slow off the mark and if he’s going to play three-technique in the NFL, he needs to work on exploding off the snap and getting that leverage early. This year there’s some improvement – but for such a talented athlete it’s an area he could be better.

He gets too high when initiating contact and he gets pushed back because of poor technique. Look at the video above at the 2:03 mark. He tries to move left and dip inside to confuse the offensive line. However – the right guard notices this quickly and gets under his pad level quickly with a jolt and just stones Floyd on the spot. He can’t disengage. If he bends his knees and gets the hands in low, he maybe gets the lineman off balance or at least pushes him back. Instead, he’s out of the play. When you dip inside you better have an impact. It basically leaves one undersized defensive end against a guard and left tackle on the right hand side of the line. Not surprising, the DE is on the turf pretty quickly and E.J. Manuel breaks contain and exploits the space to his left.

Sometimes it doesn’t matter that he goes high. At 5:30 he’s playing the edge and just flat out beats the left tackle with an initial punch and then a burst round the edge to get to Manuel. Again, the technique isn’t great here. But he’s just too good. He’s too strong and too fast for the FSU left tackle. It’s a great play and flashes why he could make a better five technique than a three. If he can be this disruptive at the five, it’s going to make life very easy for some of the better 3-4 OLB’s in the league.

That’s not to say that he couldn’t play inside. Clearly he’s an athletic player for his size (approximately 300lbs) and there are times when he throws a little sidestep move to avoid a block and he looks the part of a pro-inside penetrator.

Against the run he’s OK. Again the technique is an issue because he consistently goes too high, but he also lacks a lot of the pure power at the point of attack you see with Star Lotulelei and Sylvester Williams. It’s worth noting that he’s quite a bit lighter than both of those players and could still add muscle to become a better run stopper. The thing he has got in his favour is a good motor. He doesn’t appear to take any snaps off and even though he doesn’t always finish when given the opportunity, he keeps working to make plays. Sheldon Richardson has that same attitude, but the big difference between the two is Richardson is nasty. He’ll take a hit and come back harder on the next play. He gets in your face, he has attitude. Floyd will score much higher than Richardson for character, but it’d be nice to see a bit more of a mean streak at times on the field.

Before people ask, I can’t imagine the Seahawks using him in the Red Bryant role which is essentially a 5-technique. Bryant is much bigger than Floyd. When asked who would replace him if he can’t make the Bears game on Sunday, Pete Carroll said Alan Branch would play DE with 284lbs Greg Scruggs taking over at the three technique. Carroll wants size in the Bryant position, not an orthodox 3-4 defensive end. In fact, he’s probably more likely to draft massive Georgia nose tackle Jonathan Jenkins to play the Bryant role than a guy like Floyd. And whatever people think of Bryant’s play this year – he remains a focal point of the defense. He’s also the highest paid defensive player on the team and a big emotional leader.

Is he likely to be on Seattle’s radar? Possibly given USC and Carroll’s reported interest in him before he chose Florida. However, I think he’s more likely to interest 3-4 teams and the Seahawks might be looking for a more orthodox three technique in the draft, such as the aforementioned Richardson out of Missouri.

San Diego State tight end Gavin Escobar could be an option for Seattle

Time for an updated mock draft…

– Luke Joeckel is the #1 pick to Kansas City. We have to consider the prospect of a non-quarterback going first overall given the form of Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson. Branden Albert is a free agent in 2013 and with a franchise tag worth between $9-10m for offensive lineman next year, Joeckel could be a much cheaper, longer term option. I’ve given the Chiefs Aaron Murray at the top of round two and they already have enough weapons on offense to make this scenario work.

– Jarvis Jones drops late into the first round. Why? Purely down to the spinal stenosis issue. Some teams will cross him off their boards altogether. Others will weigh up the possibility he might only play 4-5 years in the league if things don’t work out. Incredible talent, but you can’t ignore the manner of his departure from USC.

– The first quarterback off the board is Tyler Wilson. You could pretty much draw lots on who goes first this year, but if Buffalo has their pick of the group – Wilson seems like the kind of player Chan Gailey would go for.

– Matt Barkley drops into the late first. He’s good enough – in my opinion – to warrant consideration as a top pick. Yet Barkley’s form has dipped as USC has imploded under Lane Kiffin – who must take a lot of responsibility for the mess in Southern Cal. We’ve seen fourth year quarterbacks drop when their senior campaigns go wrong, it could happen again. I suspect someone would move up into the 20’s to get Barkley if he lasts that long. In this projection, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs moved up after taking Joeckel with the #1 pick. The Eagles are another option – Nick Foles isn’t the future for that team.

– The Seahawks go defensive tackle and tight end this week. I think between now and April we’ll hear about the front office being smitten with Stanford tight end Zach Ertz. Seattle’s coaches showed a lot of interest in Coby Fleener last year, and Ertz is a superior player. In this mock, he’s a top-15 pick. If he drifts a little or if the Seahawks miss the post-season, then he comes into play as a legit option. He’s a tremendous run blocker which would allow the offense to make even more use of their 2TE sets. He can also be used as a third down target with experience working outside and in the slot. Despite the investment in Zach Miller for 2013 (I expect his contract will be negotiated down), Ertz has value that transcends that of a normal tight end. He could prove to be Seattle’s ideal pick. In this projection the Seahawks take a pure pass-catching tight end in round two in San Diego State’s Gavin Escobar. He’d be used differently to Ertz, but he has explosive potential as a field-stretching playmaker.

– There are several noticeable absentees. Sam Montgomery’s reputation at LSU goes before him and I think he’ll fall further than people expect. Cornellius Carradine suffered a bad knee injury against Florida on Saturday and this will severely impact his draft stock. I think Landry Jones and Tyler Bray will struggle to crack the first two rounds. I wanted to include Rutgers running back Jawan Jamison but he just missed out. Also just missing out: Baccari Rambo (S, Georgia), Chase Thomas (LB, Stanford) and Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor).

I’ve included a first and second round projection this week.

First round

	#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) They need a quarterback but may decide that’s for later. Current starting left tackle Branden Albert is a free agent in 2013 and is flexible enough to switch positions if he stays in KC.

	#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He’ll shoot up the boards with a strong combine. The owner has a lot of sway in Jacksonville and seems to like flashy moves.

	#3 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) The Eagles could do with rebuilding their offensive line, but may see Te’o as a cornerstone on defense.

	#4 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Big upside with major value in run defense. The Raiders need to boost that defensive line.

	#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) Moore is among the NCAA leaders for sacks this year with 12.5. The Browns need more pass rush.

	#6 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Coleman has insane potential and would easily be the first receiver off the board in 2013 if he declares. 6-6, 225lbs – big play receiver.

	#7 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) Features at right tackle due to Luke Joeckel’s impressive form on the blind side. He could translate to the left side in the NFL.

	#8 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) Chan Gailey likes mobile quarterbacks who can sling the ball. Wilson will be hoping to turn a few heads at the Senior Bowl.

	#9 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback prospect. Whoever gets Dee Milliner is getting superb value, wherever he’s taken.

	#10 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) If he re-gains lost weight he could be another J.J. Watt. That’s his ceiling.

	#11 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) With the top tackles off the board this makes life easy for Arizona – get a quarterback.

	#12 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) If the current regime survives in New York, Warmack is the type of player Rex Ryan needs to play smash-mouth football.

	#13 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) With Miami also a possible suitor for Ertz, the Rams don’t take any chances with this pick. He’s worth this type of grade.

	#14 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Cooper and Chance Warmack are too good to stick around late into the teens.

	#15 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) High-motor player with a relentless approach to the game. Just what New Orleans needs to set the tone on defense.

	#16 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) He could follow in the footsteps of Joe Staley and make it into round one to fill a need in the NFC West.

	#17 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He’s not quite as good as some people want you to believe. Even so, he’ll look great lined up opposite DeMarcus Ware.

	#18 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia) Superb value here. Ogletree is one of the most talented players eligible for 2013.

	#19 Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State) He’s gradually overtaken Jonathan Banks as the #2 ranked corner in this class.

	#20 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) His best football will come in the NFL. Great blend of size and speed.

	#21 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Top-15 talent who lasts this long only due to a lack of need earlier. Elam’s a true playmaker in the secondary.

	#22 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) The Seahawks need a three technique with the size to plug the run, but also a prospect who can offer more of a pass rush threat.

	#23 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) Massive nose tackle and just what Indy needs to build a 3-4 defense.

	#24 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) He just seems like a Green Bay type of player. They could use him at 3-4 end, which might be his best position in the NFL.

	#25 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) Another team that could use some investment at tackle. Lewan isn’t flashy, but he’s a right tackle at worst in the NFL.

	#26 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) He could be the #1 overall pick. Or he could fall a bit. I don’t think the Pats take him, but they love to trade down. This is the worst case scenario for Barkley.

	#27 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama) Every week he makes plays. The Broncos could do worse than adding another compliment to their defense.

	#28 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) He’s playing at guard this year, but has the athleticism to move back to tackle.

	#29 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Blue collar player who would fit right into San Francisco’s defense.

	#30 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Baltimore is one of the few teams good enough to see past Jones’ spinal stenosis to get 4-5 years of pass rushing quality.

	#31 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State) He could be better than he is, the effort is so inconsistent. Even so, he has major potential.

	#32 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) When you have a roster like Atlanta’s, why not go for an X-factor playmaker?

Second round

#33 Kansas City – Aaron Murray (QB, Georgia)
#34 Jacksonville – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#36 Carolina – Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#38 San Diego – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#39 New York Jets – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#40 Tennessee – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#41 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#42 Detroit – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#43 Buffalo – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#44 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#45 Washington – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#46 Dallas – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#47 Miami – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#48 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#49 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#50 Cincinnati – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#51 Seattle – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#52 Pittsburgh – Le’veon Bell (RB, Michigan State)
#53 New York Giants – Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#55 Green Bay – Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
#56 Chicago – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#57 New England – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#58 Denver – Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 Baltimore – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#61 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#62 Atlanta – Ed Lacy (RB, Alabama)

The Seahawks could use a Star

There’s still a lot of football to be played, but yesterday’s 24-21 defeat to Miami made something pretty clear – this team must upgrade at defensive tackle. #1 need, straight up.

I previously wondered if the bigger need was a more athletic WILL that can cover. That comes a close second, particularly after all the busted coverages involving Leroy Hill against the Dolphins. Adding another receiver also looked like a realistic option, but nobody can say that position has been an issue in recent weeks. The clear #1 need is at defensive tackle. Here’s why…

Seattle’s base defense uses a front four consisting of Chris Clemons, Alan Branch, Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant. Of that quartet, only Clemons offers any pass rushing threat. With the Seahawks opting to use a four man rush more often than not, they’re relying on Clemons too much to create pressure. This has been the case ever since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle in 2010. It’s a pretty unique situation where your starting defensive end (Bryant) and your starting three technique (Branch) have almost no pass rushing responsibilities. I see it as the Seahawks trying to create a lot of 2nd/3rd and long situations so that the specialists (Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones) can have an impact. Play stout against the run early with three +300lbs lineman, rely on the second level guys not to give up the 7-8 yard pass and force the offense into an obvious throwing situation. I suspect this was of doing things is to try and create turnovers – a key mantra in Carroll’s philosophy. Put a team in 3rd and ten, use speed rushers, put an extra defensive back on the field. You can understand the thinking here even if you don’t agree with it.

Here’s the problem though – too many times this season, particularly on the road, the run defense has been poor on those key early downs. Miami had +6YPA on Saturday. If the base defense isn’t getting the job done, it’s harder to maximise the qualities of Irvin, Jones and anyone else you want to use in nickel or bandit formations. For this system to work, you need to be effective in base.

It’d also be nice to have a starter to take some of the pass rushing responsibility away from Clemons. After all, what better way to make the most of Irvin/Jones than to put a team in 2nd/3rd and 17 because of a sack on first down?

Finding an interior upgrade that maintains the size up front while also offering a superior pass rush option is key and will help this defense take the next step.

There are solutions in the draft and it’s a rich year for defensive tackles. Star Lotulelei has the size and freakish athletic talent to become one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. He’s extremely streaky and dips in and out of games, but his upside is off the charts. He’s mostly a terrific run blocker, which would be key for the Seahawks. When he sets his feet and gets leverage, he’s proven almost impossible to move. He has tremendous upper body power and the size to plug holes. Unfortunately, he’s not a great pass rusher. Yet.

At the moment he’s too one dimensional, relying exclusively on the bull rush. Guards and center’s are able to adjust and predict what he’s going to do, and there have been times where he’s started a game on fire and then disappeared in the second half(see: USC vs Utah below). Once an offensive lineman sees the same move time and time again, they suss him out. He also plays too high at times and it’s led to some pretty ugly looking blocks over the last two years. Even so, you’d like to think he’d improve with pro-coaching although it might take a year or two to max out the extreme physical potential on offer here.

It’s presumed that Lotulelei will be a high pick, but if he leaves the board early there are alternatives. Sheldon Richardson doesn’t have the ideal size for Seattle’s scheme (approximately 290lbs) but he might be the best pure three technique. He’s a high motor, big effort player who doesn’t give up on plays and constantly finds ways to get into the backfield. He’s sparky and his personality can rub coaches up the wrong way – he was suspended recently for a key game for breaking team rules. It’s the kind of thing that could lead to a fall, and if he does drop he could be an option for Seattle. The main concern here would be the considerable size difference between Richardson and Alan Branch. You’re talking about 40lbs. The Seahawks aren’t going to completely abandon their defensive scheme and they will want to remain big and stout on early downs. If Richardson can’t maintain that, he becomes nothing more than another Jason Jones. For those reasons, I’m not totally convinced Richardson would be on the radar. They’d have to feel very good about his frame holding up against the run.

Another player who compares favourably in size to Lotulelei is North Carolina’s Sylvester Williams. Again, you’re talking about a top-tier run defender in college. Williams has dominated at times this year, despite playing for the most part with a heavily-strapped ankle. He controls blockers, has the size to fill running lanes (320lbs) and chases after running backs when he gets into the backfield. He doesn’t quite have the physical upside of Lotulelei, but he might be better prepared to have a quicker impact. One area where he’s vastly superior to Lotulelei is pass rushing. Williams has a patented swim move which consistently brings results, he can bull rush, he’s got a great burst off the snap and like Richardson – he lives in the backfield.

Teams will look into his background, as he’s had quite the journey to get to UNC. At high school he struggled for motivation, skipped lessons and at one point his father had to arrange for a police escort to take him to the school gates just to make sure he actually turned up. He eventually took a job working in a car-parts factory, earning $12 an hour. That appears to be the catalyst for some kind of career-epiphany, but he eventually walked on at Coffeyville in the JUCO ranks before enrolling at North Carolina. All of this means he’ll turn 25 as a rookie – just as Bruce Irvin did this year. What I’d want to know is – will the old Sylvester Williams turn up when the cheques get cashed? Is he truly a reformed man, ready to continue his new-found worth ethic having made it to the pro’s? Or will it be seen as job done and the end of the journey? Some teams probably won’t entertain the risk. A 22-year-old rookie Williams without any of these issues is a top-fifteen pick based on the tape. With this lingering in the background, he might last into the 20’s.

What about the others? Ohio State’s Johnathan Hankins doesn’t play with enough fire in his belly to compete for this team, while Kawann Short might be available in round two. The one other player I’d possibly consider as a round one option is Jesse Williams at Alabama. He’s not a natural three technique and has played 3-4 DE and nose tackle for the Crimson Tide. Williams is strong at the point and offensive lineman struggle to move him versus the  run. If the Seahawks were just trying to solve a run defense issue here, I’d suggest Williams would be a great option. However, I think they need to find someone who can also provide a pass rush on early downs. Can Williams do it? I wouldn’t rule it out. He’s disruptive, but predictable as a rusher – exclusively relying on brute force. He lacks an explosive first step and he could be better with hand placement and execution. His improvement level from last season to this is cause for optimism though and he’s got the athletic potential to be a better pass rusher.

Of course, not every need will be filled in round one of the draft. After all, the teams greatest need was addressed last off-season by a third round pick. There’s nothing to stop Seattle’s front office working their magic again and finding a solution outside of round one. However, every off-season Pete Carroll and John Schneider have identified need areas and been quite focused with their early picks. Finding an upgrade at defensive tackle and a player who can feature on early downs will surely be on the target list as a key area for improvement. The Seahawks don’t have a ton of glaring needs, but filling the few that remain with talented players will ultimately be the difference between eternal 7-9 win seasons and maximising the potential this team has to reach 10+ victories.

Even so, it doesn’t mean this need will be addressed in round one. We sat here discussing quarterbacks for four years before a third round pick answered the call. In a deep draft for defensive tackles, the solution may not be obvious to fans or humble bloggers just yet. And nobody should be surprised if they go for that first round linebacker, wide receiver, tight end or offensive lineman instead. I could just as easily make a case for the team going after Zach Ertz or Alec Ogletree. After all – all three of Lotulelei, Richardson and Williams could be off the board before Seattle picks. But this is an area that has to be dealt with one way or another for sustained improvement to continue.

Need rankings after week 12:

#1 Defensive tackle
#2 WILL linebacker
#3 Another weapon for Russell Wilson at WR or TE

Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) tape vs USC: