Author: Rob Staton (Page 344 of 424)
Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.
Alec Ogletree is the real star of Georgia's defense
Alec Ogletree is a top ten talent. Simple as that. No doubt what so ever. By the time April comes around I suspect that’ll be consensus opinion. It should be.
There are reasons why that may not prove to be the case (more on that later) but none involve a lack of talent. What’s more the guy looks like he was made to play for the Seahawks defense. If he falls out of the top ten due to a couple of off-field incidents, Seattle’s front office needs to be ready to pounce. We’ve spent a ton of time talking up Jarvis Jones as the defining playmaker on Georgia’s defense. The more I watch Ogletree, the more I think he’s the true star.
Against Ole Miss on Saturday, he was flawless. This is the fourth time I’ve seen him this season and he’s shown improvement each time after returning from a four game suspension. He had a series of big impact plays, helping the Bulldogs to a comfortable 37-10 victory.
– With 13:56 left in the first quarter, Ole Miss attempt a pass down the right sideline. The safety under-cuts the route and comes close to intercepting the ball, but the gamble takes him out of coverage. The receiver has a ten yard head start and a free run to the end zone, but the Ogletree chases him down and makes the tackle at the 16 yard line saving a touchdown.
– On 3rd and 8 at the Ole Miss 45, he lined up next to the right end appearing like he was going to cover the slot receiver. Instead he rushed the edge with the defensive end dropping instead. Ogletree blew past the left tackle on a speed rush and sacked the quarterback for a big loss.
– In the closing stages of the first quarter, Ole Miss went for it on 4th and 4 at the Georgia 30. Ogletree lined up inside, standing on the right hash mark. He rushed the interior but the quarterback threw quickly on a WR screen to the opposite side of the field. Ogletree diagnosed the play immediately, changed direction in a flash and sprinted to the receiver who was odds on to get the first down. With an elite burst of acceleration, Ogletree wins the foot race and makes a crunching tackle to force a turnover on downs, inches short of the marker. Anything other than a forceful hit and momentum carries the ball carrier to a first down. It’s the best defensive play you’ll see this year that isn’t a sack or interception.
– On a screen play with 9:18 left in the second quarter he showed great instinct again to recognise the play, avoid blockers and make the play for a loss.
– With 6:08 left in the second quarter the Ole Miss quarterback drops back and makes an ill-advised down field thrown from just inside his own end zone. Ogletree has dropped into coverage downfield and is perfectly placed to make a leaping interception. By my reckoning he makes up 25 yards between the quarterback setting to throw and delivering the pass. Again, it’s a show of elite athleticism, field IQ and execution.
– With 0:58 left in the third quarter, Ole Miss are pinned back on their own two yard line. Ogletree is once more lined up inside. He reads the play (hand off to the tailback in the shotgun) and explodes to the ball carrier, not allowing him any time to react. Ogletree throws the running back to the ground inside the end zone for a safety.
If you’ve not really considered the possibility of the Seahawks drafting this guy, it’s time to get excited. Just don’t get your hopes up too much because he may be long gone by the time the Seattle picks. I’ve not seen a linebacker with comparable closing speed. He can show a coverage look before blitzing, take away the hot read and play the edge as a pass rusher. In fact he has untapped potential as a pass rusher playing ILB in Georgia’s 3-4 defense. As a WILL linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, he’ll probably end up being a better fit.
So why might he fall to the Seahawks, assuming they aren’t picking in the top ten this year? He was suspended for four games this year, along with team mate Bacarri Rambo, after failing a drugs test during spring camp. There’s nothing to suggest this is a lingering issue or that Ogeltree has a problem. Even so, it’s something teams will look into – particularly given it’s not his first flirtation with trouble. He was also suspended in 2010 for one game after a bizarre arrest following an incident involving a stolen scooter helmet. Teams will do their homework but I suspect these incidents aren’t going to be enough alone to force a dramatic fall in round one.
People who visit the blog regularly know how much I rate pass rusher Jarvis Jones. Who doesn’t rate the guy? He’s the big name on a Georgia defense loaded with NFL talent, including nose tackle Jonathan Jenkins, defensive end Garrison Smith, safety’s Shawn Williams and Bacarri Rambo and cornerbacks Damian Swann and Branden Smith. Ogletree is right up there with Jones and might be the better pro-prospect. The Bulldogs are probably going to face Alabama in the SEC title game again and it’ll be interesting to see if they can do a better job than last year against a dominating Crimson Tide offense. They have enough talent on defense to compete.
Linebacker isn’t Seattle’s greatest need but eventually Leroy Hill is going to move on or revert to a more limited role. Ogletree would be the perfect replacement at the WILL position. Not only would he offer another dimension to the pass rush at outside linebacker, he’d also solve some of the issues on third down. He’s a former safety so has defensive back speed and can cover slot receivers underneath or tight ends on deeper routes over the middle. Third down defense is an area for improvement and Ogletree would provide that from day one. There’s no reason why he couldn’t develop into a player of Julian Peterson’s quality, providing 7-10 sacks per year while being vastly superior in coverage.
Make no mistake, Alec Ogletree is an elite talent and warrants the highest praise as a pro-prospect. If you want someone to root for as a defensive pick, this is your guy.
Seattle's passing game continued to grow against the Vikings
Who would’ve guessed Seattle’s biggest problem would suddenly be the defense? Touted as elite just a few weeks ago, the Seahawks are now struggling a bit. The secondary continues to cover big guys pretty well, but the run defense is becoming a problem. Yes, Adrian Peterson is an incredible player. But it isn’t just Adrian Peterson. For the last three games this unit has not played well against the run.
We spent weeks deliberating over which receivers the Seahawks could target in next April’s draft, among other offensive positions. If the draft took place tomorrow, who’d bet against a defensive player being the pick? Is it the biggest need? Probably.
Russell Wilson improves with each performance and looks every bit the teams quarterback of the future. In fact he’s starting to look special. He is far better than a guy like Christian Ponder who had no business in the first round of the 2011 draft. What’s more, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Zach Miller are getting involved. The run attack continues to prosper. Seattle’s offense has carried the team against Detroit and Minnesota. Nobody would’ve believed that a few weeks ago.
On the other side of the ball, the defense struggles to get off the field on third down, struggles to stop the run, has difficulty against slot receivers/check downs and isn’t even tackling very well. They get pressure, but it’s inconsistent (especially on the road) and the four man rush isn’t quite as effective as this scheme requires. Losing Jason Jones has been a bigger blow than a lot of people expected.
The draft is deep at defensive tackle which works in two ways. Either you dip into the talent pool early because that’s where the quality is, or you judge whether the depth is sufficient to wait a little. Jones and Alan Branch are both pending free agents so it’s an area we’ll have to keep an eye on. Getting a penetrative three technique appears crucial if Jones walks. Sheldon Richardson is by far the best pure three technique eligible for 2013 and should be an early pick. Sylvester Williams (see tape below) is also first round worthy and Star Lotulelei will be a high pick if teams buy into his upside. It’s worth noting that Alan Branch is a bigger-than-usual starter at the three. If they want to keep the size they could look at Johnathan Hankins or Jonathan Jenkins – both are very athletic for +325lbs.
There’s also the possibility a player like Alec Ogletree – who looks ideal for the Seahawks’ scheme – is available and he’d add to the pass rush and offer genuine safety speed at linebacker. He can cover underneath to a high level and is adept at reading a quarterbacks eyes and breaking on the ball. He could be a top-15 pick but off field concerns might push him deeper into the first.
In the short term they have to deal with what they’ve got and first and foremost get Jones healthy to help the interior rush. This is a team that has proven they can shut down a run game and they’ll no doubt be studying the tape to work out what teams are doing to suddenly be effective against the defense. New York will run the ball a lot next week but don’t have a back like Peterson or Frank Gore. It’s crucial to the teams potential success this year that they sort this problem out quickly. Before people wondered whether a lousy passing game would hold back an elite defense. Now you have to wonder whether the defense is going to hold back a dynamic offense?
Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) tape vs NC State:
There are some big games today, including Alabama @ LSU and Oregon travelling to USC. Whatever you’re watching let us know about it.
There’s nothing more dynamic than a great quarterback throwing to a playmaking receiver. It’s not the only way to win in the NFL, but it is a way. Yet there remains some suspicion among the two positions, with fans and pundits almost demanding perfection. While upside is justification enough to draft an unrefined defensive end or offensive tackle prospect, the same cannot be said for the two positions that help electrify an offense.
Part of the reason is the importance of a good quarterback and the passing offense in general. A coach or GM will be forgiven if they misfire on a defensive end or offensive lineman because the long term damage is minimal. There’s a stigma around quarterbacks that feels more long term. The day you side with a quarterback is the day your reputation is on the line. It’s like taking a chance on the most vital position in the game is the ultimate review of your ability to identify talent. This thinking is a little bit backward because a.) the quarterback problem is the hardest to solve and b.) it’s the one position you should keep trying to improve until you land that perceived ‘franchise’ player.
Improving the environment around a quarterback is just as important. A lot of people think it’s just about the offensive line. It isn’t. A quarterback needs great receivers too. They don’t have to be Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green. They don’t even have to be production machines. They just have to be good enough to make a team honest and difficult to game plan. You have to surround a young quarterback with as much talent as possible to max out his potential.
The Seahawks face this situation now. They’ve made their bed with Russell Wilson and we’re seeing evidence of everything written above. People are associating Wilson’s success with Pete Carroll and John Schneider, when in reality all they’ve done is identify someone who ‘could’ be the guy. So far it looks like they might be right. Kudos to them. But if it doesn’t work out, they should be allowed the freedom to make another investment at the position. They’ve built up the line (two first round picks) and have signed receivers (Rice, Miller) and a dominant running back (Lynch). It’s coming together.
Yet they have to keep building around their guy if they want to avoid having to find the next guy. Wilson will never have enough weapons. He cannot be allowed to fail due to dropped passes or a lack of talent around him. Right now this is a growing offense, learning what they can and can’t do. Things are getting better, but they can’t settle. They were shrewd enough to find a quarterback who was available outside of the first round. They may need to be willing to spend higher picks to make him a ‘franchise’ quarterback, though.
Since 1976, the Seahawks have used 39 first round picks. Out of those 39, only two have been spent on wide receivers (Joey Galloway 1995, Koren Robinson 2001). They’ve only drafted two quarterbacks too (Dan McGwire 1991, Rick Mirer 1993). Think about that for a moment. Two of the most important positions in the NFL and only four first round picks in 36 years? Compare that to the ten defensive lineman they’ve drafted, nine offensive lineman or six defensive backs. In the history of the Seattle Seahawks they haven’t spent anywhere near enough on the offensive skill positions.
Carroll has created a good defense. As witnessed in Detroit, it’s maybe not at elite status yet. There’s room for another defensive tackle, or a linebacker. This is actually an incredibly strong draft for interior defensive lineman and Alec Ogeltree looks like he was made to play in Seattle’s scheme at weakside linebacker. Other players like Arthur Brown at Kansas State also make a lot of sense. But hasn’t this franchise been here before? You could take a defensive tackle, but what about the passing game? You could go linebacker and try to push the defense closer to elite status, but can the offense take advantage?
We’re going to spend a lot of time arguing the case for defensive prospects that might fit the teams scheme over the next few months, but there’s always going to be an argument which comes back to the receivers. That’s not to say the Seahawks should draft one for the sake of it, but we need to dedicate a fair amount of time looking at the options. If they do go receiver for the third time in what’ll be 37 years by April, it might not be the guy everyone expects. Just like James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin.
In fact, it’s almost certainly not going to be the guy we expect. I sense Carroll and Schneider almost enjoy being different, avoiding the consensus opinion. They took Carpenter amid a host of question marks (anyone who really watched him at Alabama understood the first round grade) and added Irvin and Wilson a year later – with hysteria reaching new levels in the media. All we can do as interested observers is to watch the games and try to understand fit. This is why I gave the Seahawks Cordarrelle Patterson in my latest mock draft. They’re focusing on the running game and trying to use big strikes in the passing game. They use play action and try to get big chunks with Wilson’s arm. They aren’t chipping away with little 4-5 yard completions. This isn’t the Pats offense.
Unless they shift scheme in the off season, it’s not unreasonable to consider they might continue to try and pump up that game plan with big, tall downfield receivers who can win jump balls. They have a slot guy they believe in (Doug Baldwin) and a receiver in Golden Tate who they’re happy moving around. Do they have that true home run hitter to go with a passing game that swings for the fences? Perhaps not. Which is why I think Patterson’s style of play could be suitable.
I also went back last night and watched the Wisconsin vs Ohio State game from last year. The Russell Wilson we’re seeing in Seattle right now is the one we saw in college. I don’t see why the Seahawks would shift their game plan so significantly because this is the type of game Wilson is comfortable with. And while he remains the starting quarterback, they need to put weapons around him that can make his life easy as possible.
On the schedule this week: Ole Miss vs Georgia, Alabama vs LSU, Oklahoma State vs Kansas State. I’d like to express my feelings on the decision of my broadcast provider to not show the Oregon vs USC game, but I want to keep this blog clean. I’ll create an open thread again tomorrow so feel free to offer your take if you’re watching a game or a prospect this weekend.
I wanted to do a mock draft with the quarterbacks falling. I don’t think it’s an unrealistic proposition, as discussed in yesterday’s piece. People will instantly point to this being a ‘quarterback driven league’ but there are enough question marks this year to consider the possibility we won’t see a quarterback in the top-10 for the first time since 2000.
As for the Seahawks – well we know they can be a tough team to work out. They’ve targeted pretty obvious needs the last two years, but the players they’ve drafted have been anything but obvious. I’ve given them Cordarrelle Patterson this time , a player with ideal size for a receiver with explosive playmaking qualities. He can get downfield, he’s useful on reverses and running plays and he’s a great return guy. He’s a home run hitter.
The big issue is he’s a ‘one or two big plays a game’ type. He’s not a ten catch player who churns out 100 yards regularly. Patterson has also had sloppy moments this year such as giving up on a pick-six against Akron and dropping an easy downfield pass against Georgia. If the Seahawks want a consistent target who can make multiple small plays in a game, chipping away at a defense, this isn’t the guy.
But the way Seattle’s offense is being utilised emphasises the big play and values special teams. They appear to want to run a lot and then hit you on a play action pass downfield. They want an X-Factor in the return game to create field position advantages and score cheap points. In that sense, Patterson fits the bill. And perhaps he can be coached into a more rounded receiver? This is his first year at the FBS level after playing in the JUCO ranks. For what it’s worth, James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin are also former JUCO transfers.
I do have some concerns about Patterson’s personality. How badly does he want to be a great player? How responsible is he going to be when things go badly? Can he mature as a pro, or will he be overwhelmed? These are things we can’t really answer without meeting the guy. Yet part of this process is trying to find the type of player the Seahawks may be willing to consider in round one. John Schneider is quoted as saying he didn’t think much of the 2012 receiver class. Here are the players taken in the first two rounds:
Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Rueben Randle.
Out of that group, are any similar to Patterson? Floyd, Quick and Jeffery are both big targets, but without great downfield speed. The most similar is perhaps Stephen Hill, but he didn’t make the kind of plays in college we’re seeing from Patterson. If the Seahawks continue to utilise a big play passing game to compliment a featured running attack, Patterson could be a good fit. Particularly given his quality as a return man.
Updated first round mock draft
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#1 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Is there a quarterback worthy of this pick? If not, you have to take the best player. |
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#2 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Brilliant three technique who plays with intensity every snap. I think he’ll be a consensus high pick by April. |
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#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) Jacksonville needs a pass rusher and Moore has been one of the best in the NCAA this year. He has 10.5 sacks already. |
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#4 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback prospect. He can cover, he can play run support, he’s a ball hawk and has elite recovery speed. |
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#5 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He’s become a more consistent pass rusher. Has anyone seen a guy like this before? 6-7 but moves with great agility. |
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#6 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) It’s unlikely he declares as a red shirt sophomore, but if he does – he could be a top ten pick. Elite potential. 6-6, 220lbs. |
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#7 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) He played well enough against LSU to show he could go this early next April. |
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#8 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) I’m not convinced he’ll go in the top ten. Huge upside but so inconsistent. |
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#9 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jets need another pass rusher and Werner could have a big impact in the AFC East. |
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#10 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Incredible athlete with untapped potential as a pass rusher. Ogletree could be great. There are some off-field concerns. |
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#11 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) How do you not take this guy here? He could be the best guard in the NFL in year one. |
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#12 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Great player with a few lingering off-field concerns. On the field though he’s a leader and a playmaker. |
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#13 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) He needs to rebound from two sloppy performances to get back into the top ten. |
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#14 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Cooper is only a notch below Warmack. Possibly the most athletic guard you’ll ever scout. |
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#15 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) He’s expected to have a huge combine. Teams love big, athletic pass rushers. |
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#16 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) Is Tony Romo getting an extension or not? Jerry Jones loves Arkansas, so this could be the alternative. |
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#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Incredible safety prospect. Could go much earlier than this. Deserves much more attention. |
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#18 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) If he drops, it could be painful. Arizona needs to find a left tackle, but they also need to find a long term quarterback. |
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#19 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) The Seahawks don’t conform and might consider another left field pick. Patterson is a home run hitter. Can he be consistent? |
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#20 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He’s had some good games, but he’s a little over rated. This is great value though. |
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#21 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) Great nose tackle prospect who could go in the top-15. He’s better than Dontari Poe for me. |
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#22 Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State) They need a receiver but Banks is a very talented corner – and that’s also a need. |
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#23 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) He’d be a top-15 pick if it wasn’t for his age. He’s approaching his mid-20’s as a former JUCO transfer. |
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#24 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama) He could go much earlier than this, Mosley’s playing well enough this year to be a top-15 pick. |
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#25 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State) Secondary is a bigger need but the value doesn’t fit here. Hankins is scheme diverse. |
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#26 Robert Woods (WR, USC) He’s a better player than this placing. Expect Woods to land on a good team that can look for value. |
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#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Not the flashiest player but nobody shows more effort. He’d look great in Baltimore. |
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#28 Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford) A 6-8 tight end that makes plays and is a red zone threat? Sounds like a first round pick to me. He blocks well too. |
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#29 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) Williams is the kind of player that belongs on a team with attitude. |
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#30 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) Thomas was so impressive against South Carolina. He could play tackle or guard. |
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#31 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) He’s a playmaker and Houston could shoot for value here. |
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#32 Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina) Perhaps the most impressive offensive player this year. |
Drafts that aren’t dominated by quarterbacks are rare. You have to go back to the year 2000 to find one – Chad Pennington was the sole quarterback taken in the first two rounds. He was the 18th overall pick. Next April, we could see a repeat.
Such a suggestion is often accompanied by the following counter: “This is a quarterback’s league these days.” While that is evidently true, the 2000 draft wasn’t a review of the times either. Just twelve months previous five quarterbacks were taken in the top twelve picks, including the first three selections. In 1998 we saw Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf go #1 and #2. Michael Vick was the #1 pick in 2001 while the brilliance of Julius Peppers in 2002 was only good enough to earn the #2 overall pick, sandwiched between David Carr and Joey Harrington – both quarterbacks.
Although the league wasn’t so dominated by the position in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, we were still seeing plenty of quarterbacks drafted at the top of round one. The ‘one-QB‘ draft of 2000 was unique for the times. We’ll definitely see more than one quarterback drafted in the first two rounds in 2013, but we might not see a guy taken in the top ten or fifteen. Let’s look at some of the candidates coming into the year:
Matt Barkley
Storied USC quarterback but was always likely to face hyper critical analysis by putting a fourth year of tape in the hands of scouts. He’d made tangible progress in three years with the Trojans and peaked at the end of the 2011 season. When you return for a fourth year starting, it’s difficult to keep improving and anything but improvement is open to criticism. Barkley hasn’t matched the heights of 2011 so far, but then neither have the USC Trojans as a team. More on him later.
Logan Thomas
He entered the year with possible ambitions to be the #1 pick. Thomas is big, strong and athletic – fitting the criteria of a top-15 pick in the last two years. He spent all off-season working on his game, meeting with experienced coaches to take the next step. It hasn’t happened. He’s regressed and looks awkward, already throwing ten interceptions (his total for 2011) and losing four games at Virginia Tech. Thomas has stated he’ll return for the 2013 season but really, he had no choice. Let’s see if he comes back stronger next year.
Tyler Wilson
After a 2011 season where Arkansas pushed the top teams in college football and chased a national title berth, the wheels dramatically came off when Bobby Petrino fell of his motorbike. Soon the Razorbacks were searching for a new coach and the team switched from contender to shambles. Wilson has predictably suffered as a consequence. He missed the 52-0 beat down by Alabama, but called out his team mates after. And just as it looked like things were changing for the better, Arkansas go and lose to Ole Miss on Saturday with Wilson throwing two picks. He’s mobile, he can sling it around – but he doesn’t have ideal height and he gets happy feet sometimes. His throwing motion is also very side arm.
Geno Smith
Started the year on fire but has since come back down to earth with crushing defeats to Texas Tech and Kansas State. Crowned the Heisman winner and #1 pick a few weeks ago, people are now second guessing just how good he is. Smith could be a first round pick and probably should be a first round pick considering the likes of Christian Ponder and Brandon Weeden have made it in recent years. He’s playing in an extreme spread that favours the arm ball, he can suffer from patchy form and he has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. He could get back into top-ten consideration if he starts winning again. But right now his stock is trending down after a blistering start. You can see tape of his performance vs Kansas State at the bottom of this blog post.
Matt Barkley vs Arizona
It’s hard to project what the future holds for Barkley, Wilson and Smith (we know Thomas won’t declare). I could see a situation where a team like Dallas shows genuine interest in Wilson – given the inconsistency of Tony Romo, contract status and Jerry Jones’ love for all things Arkansas. That’s a logical fit. But in round one? Smith is the most likely candidate to go early as more of a modern-day prototype (tall, strong arm, mobility) but he needs to rebound after ugly defeats. And then there’s Barkley.
I sat down to watch Saturday’s USC @ Arizona game already knowing the outcome and expecting worse than I saw. He wasn’t as awful as perhaps some members of the media suggested, but that’s the kind of review you get as a fourth year senior. The game did start badly though and he should’ve had an interception on the first drive twice.
First, he threw straight to a linebacker who kindly tipped the ball into the hands of Marqise Lee. Then he forced a throw down the middle, staring down the route and failing to anticipate the safety cutting it off. It really deserved to be a pick, but the defensive back dropped a gift. Two bad decisions from a quarterback who needs to prove decision making/execution is elite to make up for average physical skills.
Ironically, he did throw a pick on the next play and it wasn’t his fault. Barkley throws a little dump off on 3rd and 24 which was tipped into the air by Lee and juggled then caught by the linebacker. It should’ve been caught and it’s funny how the game works sometimes.
Barkley is good at moving on from mistakes though. On the next possession he took a play fake, felt the pressure and side stepped the rusher before setting and throwing a dart for a key first down. He’s not a big time athlete who will run away from a big pass rusher, but his footwork is elite. Robert Woods was penalised for pass interference on the call, putting USC at 1st and 30. Barkley went straight back to the pass, launching a bomb down the left hand side to Lee for huge yardage. He got enough height on the ball to let the route develop (the ball came out very quickly) and it was perfect accuracy, right into the hands of the receiver.
Yet having got close to the red zone, USC crumbled. They got a bit quirky (Lane Kiffin does that way too often) and having reached 4th and 2, they go for it and miss on a play action pass to the tight end. Barkley had the full back on a checkdown for the first down but perhaps correctly went for the open guy in the end zone. His execution was again poor and he needs to hit that big target.
He made up for it with two quick scores shortly after – the first touchdown was a simple dump off on a play action to the tight end. On Barkley’s second touchdown he sits in the pocket, waits for Lee to get open and throws it comfortably over the middle. Lee had enough separation to break off a big YAC run for a 49-yard touchdown. The safety takes a terrible angle which allows the receiver to run it in.
Arizona couldn’t cover Lee in the first half. He had 256 yards, 90 coming after the catch. Barkley did a good job finding his #1 receiver, but it was simple pitch and catch for the most part.
His first throw of the second half was Barkley at his best – quick drop back, good read and a strike to Robert Woods on a medium slant. He hit Lee on a similar play shortly after for a touchdown, with a big YAC run – taking his production to 299 yards for the day at the time. But then on the next drive he missed a wide open Robert Woods on a deep pass. The defensive back tripped allowing Woods a radius of 20 yards free space. Barkley has to make that completion and push the score to 35-13. Arizona scored on their next drive to make it 28-20 and after a USC fumble, quickly that was closed to 28-26. The rest, as they say, is history. USC’s defense couldn’t get a stop and the offense looked uncharacteristically panicked.
Here’s the issue – this was a winnable game. What’s more, it was a winnable game with more than one big mistake by Barkley. When you watch the whole thing you see the defense struggling, the fumble by a running back and the bad play calling from Kiffin. Scouts are going to gloss over that – I guarantee it. They’ll look at two ugly picks, a bad loss and a receiver getting 300+ yards on the day. The negatives are obvious, and the positives justified by Marqise Lee’s incredible day.
Suddenly the voice in the war room pipes up. “This guy isn’t physically good enough. He’s just over 6-2, he’s not big or athletic. He’s a timing passer. He had great receivers.” A lot of that isn’t unfair, but it doesn’t do justice to what Barkley is good at. This was an off-day, but people don’t expect you to have off-days as a fourth year senior. They expect you to throw touchdowns, win Heisman’s and National Title’s.
Some coaches will be able to see beyond that, but scouts are looking for 1.) big 2.) strong arm 3.) athletic. Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Newton, Gabbert, Locker. What do they all have in common? And how does Barkley compare?
This is why I cannot call Barkley a top-15 shoe-in. As much as I rate his poise, accuracy, ability in the pocket and yes – appreciation he will have an off-day every once in a while – I don’t think he necessarily fits what the NFL is looking for right now. He won’t get beyond the #20-25 range, but he could certainly fall there. Tyler Wilson and Geno Smith could end up in that range too. But suddenly we’re talking about guys further down the list. And that’s why I think this could be a slightly different draft than previous years. Could it be we have to wait until beyond the top-15 to see a quarterback drafted? It could happen.
On the other hand, maybe I’ll be proven wrong? It’s still October and we have a long way to go in this process. But it’s worth considering a draft that could be dominated not by quarterbacks, but by elite pass rushers and defensive lineman.
Geno Smith game tape vs Kansas State:
Zach Miller scored his first touchdown for the Seahawks in a losing effort
The Seahawks can be a frustrating team to watch. Unbeaten at home, they’ve flirted with winning all of their road games too. It’s that little tease that makes it so hard to take. This one was particularly difficult given it was the defense – not the offense – that was most culpable.
In the past it was a strong defense being held back by a stuttering offense. Yet here was Russell Wilson, leading the team and making big plays. Sidney Rice and Zach Miller both scored touchdowns, Golden Tate bounced back after a tough outing in San Francisco. Marshawn Lynch broke off a huge scoring run. The Seahawks scored 24 points – more than enough on the road to get a victory. And here was the defense, unable to get off the field on third down. Detroit converted 12/16 on third down, including the usual issue with 3rd and long rearing it’s ugly head again. Matt Stafford did a good job sensing and avoiding pressure, but he wasn’t completely tested. Richard Sherman backed up his talk (again) and Earl Thomas made a key second half interception but it wasn’t to be.
So what’s the issue? The team’s pass rush blows hot and cold too often. Are they relying too much on pressure from the front four? Can that be excused given their investment on the defensive line and the teams schematic desire to rely on pressure up front. After all, it’s helping the linebackers to make plays and the secondary continues to get rave reviews. It’s a pretty obvious thing to do to call for more exotic blitz packages, but when you see Tampa Bay battering Minnesota (Seattle’s next opponents) with lots of pressure, why not indulge that thought? After all, if you’re going to be burned on 3rd and long rushing four, why not get a safety or corner blitzing anyway?
I’m not convinced it’s an issue that can be solved via personnel, although this does strengthen the case to consider drafting Alec Ogletree. He’ll add an extra dimension to the pass rush from the linebacker position, while having enough athleticism to adjust and cover if needed. Jason Jones was a big miss among the interior and not having Jaye Howard as a replacement was also key. It’s a strong class for pass rushing defensive tackles if Seattle can’t agree an extension with Jones. The Seahawks can perform better and they need to tweak the scheme a little to execute on third down, but there isn’t an abundance of draft options that will solve this problem immediately.
There are positives though. As mentioned, the offense looks better. With every passing week Russell Wilson looks more and more like a quarterback of the future. That’s all you can expect from a rookie – progress. With two homes games on the horizon against Minnesota and New York, they have a shot to be 6-4. That would certainly be progress too – and really the Seahawks as an entity are a bit like a third round rookie themselves. There’s no time-scale on the rebuild and continuing to improve each year has to be acceptable considering where the roster was at the end of the 2010 season. So the sky is not falling this week, as disappointing as the 28-24 defeat was.
One final point on Seattle, Peter King has brought up the idea of a Dwayne Bowe trade again: “If I were Seattle GM John Schneider, I’d call Chiefs GM Scott Pioli, and ask if there’s any way he’d dump Dwayne Bowe for a fourth-round pick. And if he would, which I doubt, I’d be a buyer. You might say that Bowe could be a free agent after the season, and why would the Seahawks spend a fourth- on a guy they could lose after the season? Simple. They’d franchise him if they couldn’t reach a long-term deal, and that would give Seattle one season of a quality receiver (plus one-half of a shaky season this year, depending how quickly he could pick up at least some of the Seahawks offense) for, say, the 115th player in the draft. I’d do it.”
Bowe has at least 2-3 excellent seasons left at his peak, he’s good in the red zone and we saw in 2010 how effective he can be. If you can work a deal for anything less than a first, I’d do it too. The trade deadline has been moved to Thursday. We’ll see what happens.
I was in London yesterday to work on the Rams vs Patriots game. First of all, how did Seattle lose to this St. Louis team? 45-7 it finished. And the Rams will need those four first round picks they’ve got coming over the next two years. I had a chance to head into the Patriots locker room after the game and rather than join the scrum to speak to Rob Gronkowski or Wes Welker, I went over to speak to Ryan Mallett. He made his NFL debut in the game albeit in garbage time, but I felt obliged to go and talk to a guy we discussed a lot on this blog over the years. “It was pretty special, we don’t get to play over here every year. It was my first time and I get to do it in England so it was pretty fun.”
Mallett suffered a bit of a draft fall in 2011. It wasn’t totally unexpected and I remember hearing that only the Raiders were likely to take him in round two. New England was a good spot for him and not just because of Tom Brady’s presence. “It’s been good, I’ve learned a lot and I just try to get better every day and keep working so that’s what I’m focusing on.You pick up a lot of stuff just by watching, just by listening.”
Say what you want about Bobby Petrino in light of his departure from Arkansas this year – and it’s put that team in a real hole – but he’s a fascinating offensive mind. He’s not the easiest coach to work under and he expects a lot, but you know you’ll draft one of his quarterbacks and get a player who understands a lot of pro terminology with valid experience making multiple reads. Mallett impressed a lot of people just by barking out a timeless hard count on Jon Gruden’s QB camp pre-draft and his white board work was extremely detailed. “There’s similarities and differences (between the NFL and the Petrino offense) but playing for them (Arkansas/Petrino)… it definitely helped me prepare for this level of football.”
I suspect Petrino will be back possibly as early as next year and as long as you can accept Petrino the man, you’re getting a quality coach. The situation at Arkansas doesn’t change though and it’s a mess. They lost again this week, moving to 3-5. At the end of last year this was a team with serious ambitions of winning the SEC – and not unrealistic ambitions either. A 52-0 mauling by Alabama in September sums up how much has changed since – that was a game circled as the Razorbacks chance to make a statement. They were destroyed. Mallett has sympathy for his former teammates, in particular quarterback Tyler Wilson. “I know it’s tough. They had high expectations and there just not living up to it. I’m behind them, I’m praying for them to get it turned around. He’s a great player. He’s going to learn a little bit at this level about different things he can do to become a better player but he’s a really good player.”
Wilson could still prove to be a first round pick in 2013 and shouldn’t last deep into the second. The more I watch Dallas’ struggles and knowing Jerry Jones’ background, I wonder if he’ll be the next big hope for the Cowboys?
Jarvis Jones enjoys playing Florida
Georgia defense, Matt Elam impressive
Jarvis Jones missed a couple of games for Georgia recently but his return couldn’t have been any more timely. Jones recorded 13 tackles, three sacks, two forced fumbles and two separate fumble recoveries in a performance which confirms his position as the top prospect in the country. A supreme athlete, Jones was a terror off the edge all day. One criticism has been his lack of big games against ranked opponents, but he dominated the Gators for the second year running. In two games against Florida, Jones has seven sacks. They’ll be glad to see the back of him.
Yet this wasn’t all about one guy. Georgia’s 17-9 win was a total defensive effort. Linebacker Alec Ogletree is almost as talented as Jones and was again all over the field. He’s got the athleticism to match-up well in coverage plus the speed to react and sprint to the quarterback as a pass rusher. Not many players have his range or nose for the ball and only off-field concerns will move him out of the top-15. Most people in Seattle want a receiver or another offensive player next April – but be prepared to pine for this guy too. Ogletree is a sensational prospect. He’d be a terror in Seattle’s scheme with his ability to go from 0-60 in a second, his untapped pass rushing potential and ability in coverage.
Jonathan Jenkins is an incredibly impressive nose tackle. He has the huge size of a +330lbs lineman but the athleticism of a guy playing 30lbs lighter. He moves so well – even lining up at defensive end for some snaps. Any team looking for a cornerstone pick on a 3-4 defense (this screams Indianapolis) should consider drafting Jenkins. He’s a better prospect than Dontari Poe who went #11 overall this year. Bacarri Rambo had a pick and a sack and like Ogletree – may provide great value due to off-field problems. Safety Shawn Williams called his team ‘soft’ after three poor games for the unit – he led the charge in the secondary with what can only be described as a ‘legal clothesline’. On fourth down early in the game, Williams shed his block, sprinted from the centre field-to-right and made an aggressive tackle to force a turnover on downs. It was a tremendous play.
On the other side, Matt Elam had another great game and justified his place as a potential top-20 pick. He had two impressive tipped passes and showed great strength early in the game to disengage from a block to force a tackle at the LOS. Aaron Murray gifted him an interception and he was always around the ball. Everything Florida did well on defense seemed to have Elam at the heart of things. He’s going to be a high pick.
Defense won the day, and so many players in the game will go on to play on Sunday’s. Jones could be the #1 pick next year.
Marcus Lattimore suffers another heartbreaking injury
Anyone watching the Tennessee vs South Carolina game will understand how upsetting an experience it was. Some NFL pro’s get chance after chance after chance. Some of them don’t deserve that honour, but they keep getting opportunities. It’s used, abused and taken for granted by plenty. Then there’s a guy like Marcus Lattimore. Intelligent, well spoken, a leader and a damn good running back. And after today, we have to hope he’ll get just one chance to play in the NFL.
Lattimore suffered a horrific injury, catching his leg between a defender and the turf. For some reason the TV crews kept showing replay after replay of the incident, but it wasn’t pleasant. At first it looked like a clean leg break, but then concerns moved towards a potentially devastating knee injury. Having endured a serious left leg injury last year, to come back and injury your right leg will be incredibly upsetting for Marcus and his family. The one saving grace is he’s the kind of guy that can come back form this. He probably won’t be a high pick in the future (just a year ago he seemed to be a top-15 shoe-in). But he’s got the character to fight back, maybe even at the end of next season. Playing football again may be the first or last thing on his mind tonight. Every football fan will stand shoulder to shoulder with Lattimore as he faces this latest challenge.
In terms of the game, Justin Hunter was again mediocre. He failed to catch a jump ball at the death leading to a game ending interception. He dropped two passes. He also made a couple of nice, athletic grabs and ended with eight catches for 90 yards. Even so, no touchdowns again and Zach Rogers ended up being Tyler Bray’s most reliable target. I said it yesterday and stand by it – the guy isn’t ready. He isn’t the kind of player some want you to believe. He needs to return next year – with Bray – and work on a big season. Cordarrelle Patterson was also unable to make his usual big play this week – catching just three passes for 26 yards and rushing three times for 21 yards. When you’re not hitting home runs, you have to find a way to contribute. This is the big issue with Patterson – if he can’t return a kick or break out a big run, are you getting enough from him as a pure receiver?
A final note on this one – Dallas Thomas had an incredible game blocking Jadeveon Clowney. He’s another great interior lineman (who can play tackle) to go along with Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.
Other notes
– Rutgers had a disappointing loss to Kent State, but Brandon Coleman had five catches for 51 yards including this score.
– Matt Barkley and USC suffered their second loss of the year, falling at Arizona 39-36. I saw snippets of the game and Barkley unusually lacked poise, made two sloppy interceptions and just isn’t playing at the same level he was at the end of 2011. He’s still the #1 quarterback in a mediocre 2013 class, but it’s a game like this that makes me question where he’ll actually fall next April. He ended 31/49 for 493 yards and two touchdowns. I’ll watch this game in full on Tuesday.
– North Carolina running back Giovani Bernard might be the most underrated draft prospect in CFB right now. Every week he makes stunning plays. Some of them are pretty unique – like his fumble return for a TD last weekend. Today it was a game winning punt return for 74 yards against NC State with seconds remaining. He also had 135 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, plus a further 95 receiving yards. He could be a first or second round pick.
– Speaking of underrated players, it’s time to start taking A.J. McCarron at Alabama seriously. We’ve talked about him a lot on this blog and the guy can play. And don’t doubt his physical tools – as evidenced on this play. He had ‘Bama rolling again at the time of writing – they lead Mississippi State 21-0. He’s still yet to throw an interception this year.
