I have Clemson vs UNC on my schedule along with Washington vs Stanford today. I’ll be in London for the Bears vs Buccs game tomorrow but expect some thoughts on the two games Sunday afternoon or Monday at the latest. In the meantime, here’s some links to check out:
Dan Kadar at Mocking the Drafthas the Seahawks taking Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama). Given the way the board falls, I think that would be a good pick for Seattle. It’s nice to see Dwight Jones (WR, UNC) in the top-20 and Kadar acknowledges that Quinton Coples (DE, UNC) hasn’t had a great season to date.
Rob Rang and Chad Reuterat CBS Sportsline both have updated mocks out this week. I’m not quite sure how Alshon Jeffery warrants going #2 and #6 overall – he’s had a sluggish year and isn’t the top receiver in this class, let alone a top-10 pick. Dwight Jones is clearly the #1 receiver for me, but he doesn’t appear in either first round projection. I’m also not sure how Jerrell Worthy (DT, Michigan State) is clinging to a first round place in Rang’s mock, while it’s stunning Trent Richardson is all the way down at #16. It is good to see Matt Barkley (QB, USC) graded solidly in the top-10 where he belongs. Reuter’s projection of Zach Brown (LB, UNC) in the the top ten is deserved.
Todd McShay has a top-32 big board with some interesting judgements. Matt Barkley is down at #22 despite the following review: “Barkley is a natural leader with a high football IQ and good short-to-intermediate accuracy and touch and a quick release and adequate arm strength to make all the NFL throws.” Considering the importance of the quarterback position in the NFL, you might expect a higher placement given those comments. Alameda Ta’amu (NT, Washington) still has a lot to prove, Courtney Upshaw (DE/LB, Alabama) is listed as a ‘tweener’ by McShay and Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) – an over achiever who has no obvious role in the NFL – are all ranked above Barkley. UNC’s Dwight Jones and Zach Brown are not listed but it’s good to see teammate Kevin Riddick on the board.
McShay also has this article out todaywhich is a must read. He reports an update on Janoris Jenkins’ progress at North Alabama which reveals he was kicked out of a game for punching an opponent recently. That’s not a good sign for a player who needed to prove he had matured after all the drama at Florida. Undoubtedly Jenkins has top-10 talent and he could have greater NFL potential than even fellow Gator Joe Haden. However, this is another black mark for a player who appears to be wasting a heck of a lot of talent. McShay also has a negative review of Alshon Jeffery’s progress – an incredibly accurate judgement which makes light work of those top-10 projections. He’s simply not that good.
Mel Kiperalso updates his big boad with some very similar projections. He has Barkley ten places higher, but keeps Quinton Coples at #2. I’m a little surprised that both Kiper and McShay are very much on the Landry Jones bandwagon. Certainly pundits appear split on Barkley/Jones, while having very similar opinions on Ryan Tannehill. Jerrell Worthy remains on Kiper’s board.
Gary Klein at the LA Times has an interesting piece on whether Matt Barkley should enter the 2012 draft or not. He speaks to some unnamed NFL scouts on Barkley, with one grading him in the late first round. It remains unclear what Barkley’s intentions are regarding the draft, but a lot will depend on what he hears from the draft committee in the new year.
We’ve seen quite a lot of tape on Ryan Tannehill now, at least enough to start forming a fair opinion. Let’s break down his latest performance against Baylor.
Note: It’s important to remember that Baylor’s defense is prolific in it’s poor quality. Tannehill’s stat line looks fantastic – 25/37 for 415 yards and six touchdowns with one interception. The performance overall isn’t quite as good as that looks, but there are strong positives and also some big negatives.
A lot of the issues with Tannehill’s game are blamed on a lack of experience. By the time he enters the NFL, he’ll have played 1.7 seasons of college football at quarterback. Let’s remember that Sam Bradford – as prolific as he was and having just won the Heisman – felt he had to return to Oklahoma for a third year starting to sufficiently prepare himself for the next step. The Lewin Career Forecast (LCF) originally projected that quarterbacks’ success at the next level would be dependant on a specific number of starts (35) and whether they had completed 60% of their passes. The system wasn’t an exact science because it projected success for players such as Kellen Clemens and Brian Brohm, but it was a good indicator in highlighting how college experience related to success at the next level.
Football Outsiders updated the LCF to try and find a more accurate system for the future and now looks at a minimum of 20 starts and other factors such as improvement as a senior to determine success. It’s not flawless – Brady Quinn still scores higher than Matt Ryan – but it scores Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees highly while undermining the potential of Alex Smith, Brody Croyle, Ryan Leaf and David Carr.
Tannehill will have to play every game this season – including a bowl game – to get to the 20 starts which would put him in the range to even receive a score in the new LCF. What I would say is this – a lack of experience can be blamed on certain aspects, but how are these problems going to be solved holding a clipboard? Or worse if Tannehill is indeed thrown in at the deep end as a rookie starter in the NFL? The lack of experience can be used as an excuse, but it cannot be used as a definite reason for some of the negatives to his game.
One of the things that bothers me about Tannehill is his inability seemingly to get out of a bad play. At 2:42 he takes PA and the play design is to check it down to the running back who’s taking a short route to the left. It’s diagnosed quickly by the defense and one defensive back gets right into Tannehill’s face to break it up. What bothers me is the way he still tries to force the throw, there’s no adjustment given the play isn’t on. The attempt is tipped and could’ve gone anywhere, but with a bit more poise he could’ve stepped away from the DB and looked for Ryan Swope on a crossing route who was actually 6-7 yards upfield and open.
Is that a lack of game experience? Or is it an issue he’ll carry to the next level? I don’t like to see quarterbacks tied to play calls in college. Landry Jones is similar in this respect – he throws blind too often for my liking and when a quarterback is forcing throws regularly it’s usually one of two things – that a quarterback is incapable of improvisation or he’s being prevented from doing it. One of the things I like most about Matt Barkley is the way he rarely forces a pass that just isn’t on, he’ll get out of a play and look to a second or third option. That’s not to say he’s a flawless decision maker, but the NFL will throw all kinds of challenges a quarterbacks way. I have confidence that Barkley will answer those challenges because he’s able to improvise and make things happen, he plays on the move. The evidence so far suggests Tannehill will lock on to one read and if everything clicks (receiver is open, time in the pocket, nobody on defense makes a spectacular play) things work. If it’s not on, he’ll too often try and force things which will lead to mistakes and turnovers in the NFL.
Another example is the shovel pass interception at 1:03. This is another strict play call which goes wrong – the running back’s body language (turns quickly to look for the ball) shows it was always the call and not a checkdown option. Tannehill tosses it into traffic when it simply wasn’t on – bad decision, bad execution and another example of being tied to a play call.
He also misses on some basic throws – at 8:51 it’s a simple dump off to the receiver on the left hand side but he’s a bit jumpy and misses the target. There are a few examples – in this game and others – where his accuracy is slightly off.
Arm strength is generally a positive and I’m loathe to criticise any player for a 47-yard touchdown pass, but he under threw a wide open receiver who had to slow right down and turn to face the ball in order to make the completion. You really want to see that pass thrown into the end zone. Had one of the two defensive backs managed even a mediocre job in coverage that easily could’ve been broken up and a missed opportunity.
He throws with a slightly greater 3/4 motion than you’d like to see. There are tipped passes with Tannehill which is a bit of a surprise given his height. He can work on this and I suspect come the Texas A&M pro-day and after working with a good QB coach he’ll rectify this, but it’s something that does need work.
Onto the positives and certainly Tannehill does a good job taking what a defense gives him. He gets good protection from the Aggies offensive line and he’ll make the most of single coverage. He does take some risks with defensive backs under cutting routes, but there are several occasions this season where I’ve been really impressed with his pass placement finding a receiver who’s just created enough separation between two defensive backs. The connection between Tannehill and Ryan Swope is very natural, although I don’t think they’ve made enough of Jeff Fuller’s overall skill set in this offense. The pass at 8:15 shows he is capable of fitting passes into tight windows in single coverage, he doesn’t rely purely on the talented weapons he has at receiver.
The pass at 12:00 goes for a touchdown but would’ve been no less impressive had it merely been a first down. Poor tackling allows the score, but that’s a very accurate pass in good coverage with the sufficient level of velocity.
I think NFL teams may be split when they review Tannehill ahead of next year’s draft. Some will look at the physical potential and the relative success he’s had so far and back their coaches to turn him into a more rounded player. Others will wonder whether a lack of experience is a good enough excuse to feel confident about some of the issues he has. He’s a lot lower in my personal grades than Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Sam Bradford – but he’s also higher than some of the players I didn’t rate highly such as Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy. Even so, I cannot grade Tannehill in round one.
Janoris Jenkins, now at North Alabama, could still rise to the top of the CB rankings
In the last two drafts the Seahawks spent several picks rebuilding their secondary. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are permanent fixtures at safety, while Walter Thurmond will get his opportunity to nail down a starting cornerback position with Marcus Trufant on injured reserve. There’s certainly scope for further investment because you can never have too many good young corners. Both the wide out and cornerback positions stand to benefit from quality depth and it’s with some surprise that fans tend to under-sell the receiver position in particular. For me, it’s a premium position in the NFL and it’ll be a strong class of wideouts in 2012.
However, I’m less enthusiastic about the Seahawks spending a round one pick at either position next April. This team needs a quarterback, a point that has been made countless times but is completely valid. This front office cannot enter year three of an initial five-year contract for it’s VP of football operations without a big investment at quarterback. Pete Carroll cannot afford to spend too long shuffling around at the position putting his faith in re-treads like Tarvaris Jackson. This team needs it’s on-field identity, the guy who is going to lead this team to prolonged success in the NFC West. With respect, I doubt that man is currently on the team’s roster. Now that San Francisco has seemingly got it’s act together after years of wasting talent, the Seahawks need to provide a worthy challenge themselves. Rest assured that the Niners will not hang about in replacing Alex Smith – they’ve already drafted Colin Kaepernick with a high second rounder and it’d be naive to think they’ll just coast along even if a fast 5-1 start is maintained throughout 2011.
The secondary issue of most concern comes on the defensive line. Chris Clemons’ production so far has continued, but he’s playing in an exaggerated position which is unorthodox to the league and will put stats on the board. I don’t think anyone can claim Seattle is churning out constant pressure and making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks – you only have to look at how badly the Seahawks rank in pass defense. One excellent defensive lineman could change that, whether it’s a disruptive three technique or another defensive end that allows Seattle to run more basic 4-3 fronts and provide pressure from both sides.
Getting a quarterback is the priority, then there’s a long gap to the second most important issue of finding additional defensive lineman. Cornerback may be third on the list, but only once the first two options have been exhausted. I foresee a situation where the Seahawks can’t draft a quarterback – Andrew Luck could end up being the only round one level QB who actually declares this year and you can’t draft for a position of such importance when the quality simply isn’t there. It’s an unlikely scenario though and eventually the Seahawks are going to have to bite the bullet – they’ve looked at the last two classes and said a resounding ‘NO’ to the group of QB’s. They can’t expect Aaron Rodgers the sequel to fall into their laps and only consistent losing will ever secure a player of Luck’s quality.
In the unlikely event that all roads to a quarterback are closed, we have to address some of the other needs. I think this is a cornerback class with some quality, just nobody in the range of Patrick Peterson or Jimmy Smith last year (both had elite potential). We’ll go into more detail later this week, but here’s a selection of some of the players to monitor if you’re looking for 2012 cornerbacks.
The early stages of a NFL draft usually features a good balance of offensive and defensive talent. In the last seven years, 50 offensive players have been drafted within the top fifteen picks compared to 55 players on defense. In five of the last seven years, there’s been an 8-7 split in favor of one side of the ball with just two drafts edging towards the defense (nine defensive players to six offensive players in 2010 and 2006). In 2008 eight of the first eleven picks were defensive players.
The last draft that weighed heavily in favor of the offense came in 2004 when ten of the first fifteen picks were offensive players – a class that included Eli Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers, Robert Gallery and Ben Roethlisberger among others.
Aside from that, there’s a balance between the two with a slight edge going to the defense. The last few years have contained some ‘obvious’ stock talent on the defensive side of the ball – players that were projected to go early pretty much from day one. Think Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, Patrick Peterson, Gerald McCoy Marcell Dareus and Chris Long. This year I’m struggling to find a single player worthy of an absolute top-ten projection, a striking review of the defensive talent that could be available next April.
Perhaps it’ll simply be a year similar to 2004, with the early picks being dominated by offense? Andrew Luck will be the #1 overall pick and it appears likely at least one more quarterback will be drafted early. Offensive tackles such as Matt Kalil, Jonathan Martin and Riley Reiff could become high picks and with a degree of depth at receiver there’s every chance we could see an early run on wide outs too.
Even so, there’s an uncomfortable feel to a class that lacks quality defensive talent.
Many have projected Quinton Coples as a top-ten player, something I’ve argued against on the evidence we’ve seen so far. When you see the lack of alternatives on defense, perhaps it’s worth considering that someone will tap into the physical potential of Coples even if he’ll be entering the NFL with a lot to prove? Kansas City found themselves in a similar situation in 2009, choosing to reach for Tyson Jackson due to the unappealing alternatives on the board with the #3 overall pick. Coples is far from a lost cause but his physical potential and appearance on the field at the moment far outweighs his perfomance and production.
Cornerback Morris Claiborne has enjoyed a strong start to the 2011 season with three interceptions to go with the five he collected last year. Could he rise to the top of someone’s board? What about a playmaking cornerback like Jayron Hosley at Virginia Tech who lacks ideal size at 5-10 and 171lbs and will give up some plays – but is the definition of a playmaker with 12 interceptions in less than one and a half seasons? Dre Kirkpatrick gets a good review due to his height and background working under Nick Saban at Alabama, but I’ve not been impressed with his tape so far.
Janoris Jenkins is the forgotten man of the 2012 draft, but he flashed top-ten abilities at Florida. He may have transferred to North Alabama after a series of problems off the field, but let’s not ignore that Julio Jones, AJ Green and Alshon Jeffery had their worst games against Jenkins last year. If you feel confident he’s a reformed character with greater responsibility and maturity then he maintains a high grade.
I’m not a huge fan of a slightly over rated group of linebackers, but you can foresee a situation where a player like Vontaze Burfict goes earlier than perhaps he should. The same could be said for Boston College linebacker Luke Kuelchy or Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o. Personally I see North Carolina’s Zach Brown as the superior linebacker prospect so far.
The nose tackle position has taken on an increased level of importance and Alameda Ta’amu may not be an obvious choice early in round one but he has the size, mobility and potential to be a very effective player at the next level. Memphis tackle Dontari Poe is in a similar situation – having the frame and potential but offering teams more physical potential and scheme fit than proven production.
Several defensive ends are starting to draw attention – Marshall’s Vinny Curry is a battering ram of a defensive end with 9.5 sacks already in 2011. Andre Branch at Clemson is starting to become a consistent performer with seven sacks this season and Oklahoma’s Frank Alexander has 6.5. The most impressive defensive lineman I’ve watched this year – Florida State’s Bjoern Werner – will not be eligible until 2013.
Curry looks like a first round level talent so far, but he’s not an explosive player off the snap and he lacks game changing speed off the edge. You can’t fault his effort, size, mobility and effective hand-use, but teams may be put off by average straight line speed. Branch is lighter on his feet and has a greater initial burst – he’s one to keep monitoring as Clemson keeps winning. Tigers teammate Brandon Thompson impresses on tape but has an alarming lack of end product in the stats column over a four year career. Jared Crick has been patchy and inconsistent at Nebraska, but offered a skill-set similar to JJ Watt. He will miss the rest of the 2011 season with a torn pectoral muscle and could drop slightly if it impacts his ability to be 100% for draft work outs.
Mot of these suggestions wouldn’t enter the early first round discussion in previous years, but such is the class of 2012 some of these players may end up being high picks. It’s possibly less of a concern for teams in the era of the rookie wage cap, but the stigma attached to missing on draft picks can be costly for reputations and continued employment.
The question I get asked the most – and I wish I could answer it in a more satisfactory way – is what defensive talent will be available as a consolation prize if the Seahawks miss out on a quarterback? The honest answer is there will be a shortage of big name college defensive players for people to invest their hopes into. I’m yet to find someone like Colorado’s Jimmy Smith who lit up the screen and flashed under rated elite skills and unmatched potential. Last April San Francisco and St. Louis both drafted defensive ends in Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn, yet no player of that quality is making themselves known for 2012.
Perhaps of more concern for the Seahawks – a lack of great defensive talent may push teams towards one of their other great passions, the quarterback position. We saw a run on quarterbacks last year with four being drafted in the first twelve picks. Could the same happen again next April, with players being over drafted like Christian Ponder? It could happen, even if I’ve offered a less than favorable review of Landry Jones and am yet to be convinced by Ryan Tannehill. Seattle will have to be on it’s toes if the intention is to select a specific quarterback in round one.
So what can we project so far? If I was compiling a top-prospects list today I suspect it could be completely different in a months time. This group continues to ask an awful lot questions and the answers are taking a little longer to work out. This is potentially how I see the top seven players so far:
#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
#2 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
#3 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#4 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
#5 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#6 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
#7 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
If I was putting together a bigger board I wouldn’t necessarily be able to make a logical case to separate the player at #8 and the player at #22. For example, I like Zach Brown enough to put him at #8 but is he any more likely to have an impact at the next level than Justin Blackmon? At his best Blackmon has a little Roddy White to his game and maybe a little Greg Jennings. He has the ‘alpha male’ streak that could take him to the top on a good offense. He also suffers from basic mental errors that will frustrate you, he’s not a consistent hands catcher, he’s not got incredible size and he won’t run a brilliant forty time.
In terms of importance to a team, the nose tackles and defensive lineman could crack the top ten and so could the cornerbacks such as Morris Claiborne and Jayron Hosley. You come back to Quinton Coples and just wonder what he could be like if he had a consistent motor or was a little quicker off the edge?
So what am I sure about? Trent Richardson is playing at a different level this season and with the rookie pay scale making the running back position a more enticing early pick, there’s every chance he could go in the top five.
Let’s say Indianapolis has the second overall pick next April, with Miami winning the race to draft Andrew Luck. The Colts may not automatically move on to the next best quarterback as a long term replacement for Peyton Manning. They drafted a finesse left tackle in Anthony Castonzo last year and I feel uncomfortable projecting him to the right hand side given his frame and skill set. Von Miller – last year’s #2 overall pick – signed a fully guaranteed four-year $21m contract. Assuming Manning can recover from his current injury, $21m for a player who will be a day one starter and offer an immediate explosion of talent doesn’t seem like a stretch. Without the rookie pay scale you’re looking at a deal similar to Ndamukong Suh’s $68m contract with $40m in guarantees. The difference is quite incredible and it’s why running backs will be back on the agenda at the top of round one.
The 2012 draft will be the first time we see the true impact of the rookie cap, with positions like receiver and running back perhaps getting more of an opportunity as they did before the big boom in contracts. Dwight Jones has been a revelation this season for North Carolina and is the complete package at receiver. He could really help a team breaking in a young quarterback. One of Jones’ greatest qualities besides hands, speed and size is his ability to adjust to the football and make difficult catches from imperfect throws. He could be a dream pick for a player like Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton with St. Louis, Jacksonville and Carolina set to pick early again in 2012.
The end of loaded contracts could also see teams rolling the dice more often on quarterbacks in the hope of finding ‘the guy’ for a league dominated by elite signal callers. This won’t avoid reputations being tarnished by bad decisions, but it will allow teams to move on if a player doesn’t work out as hoped. We could see a continuation of last year’s boom in quarterbacks going early despite my own projection of just two players with first round grades at the position.
Last week I argued that Quinton Coples (DE, UNC) was over rated. He’s universally graded as a top ten pick, something I cannot agree with. What position will he play at the next level? He’s not quick enough to provide a consistent edge rush, he hasn’t got a strong repertoire of moves – in fact he hasn’t even mastered one specific move which he can turn to in college. He’s not big enough to move inside and play the three-technique. You generally end up settling for the five-technique in a 3-4, but it’s a compromise. There’s a lot of physical potential, but nowhere near enough evidence on tape to warrant a high pick.
Coples picked up a sack in Saturday’s 30-24 defeat to Miami. Here’s the tape courtesy of JMPasq:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) met Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) in a game seemingly played without either defense taking the field. Tannehill won the day (55-28) with six touchdown passes and an interception, to go along with 415 yards passing (25/37). Griffin went 28/40 for 430 yards three touchdowns and a pick.
Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State) hasn’t done a great deal this year to boost his fading stock, but he recorded a 28-14 win against previously unbeaten Michigan with two touchdowns and 120 yards passing in difficult conditions. I have the tape of this game and will review it later in the week.
I’ve been promoting Dwight Jones (WR, UNC) as the best receiver in the class of 2012 and he again flashed consistency with nine catches for 82 yards against Miami. He scored a touchdown – his 8th of the season – in what was actually his worst statistical performance of the season. He has 687 total receiving yards in seven games, but he couldn’t prevent a 30-24 defeat today. Jones is the complete package at the receiver position and with his new found consistency should be a high draft pick.
Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) isn’t as hot right now – largely due to an inconsistent QB situation for the Gamecocks. He had just 24 yards today from five catches but did score a touchdown. I’ve maintained a late first round or early second round grade for Jeffery.
Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss) is another player we’ve been pushing on this blog. He didn’t play today because of a bye week, but it’s worth noting that #12 Georgia Tech lost on the road to Virginia today 24-21. One of Davis’ best performances this season for the Golden Eagles came in leading his team to a victory away to the Cavaliers.
Davis defeated Navy comfortably last week, today they faced off against Rutgers in a tighter 21-20 defeat. Mohamed Sanu recorded ten catches for exactly 100 yards and his big season continues. He’s a sure-fire first round talent in my eyes. He also ran the ball twice for 11 yards, something that can be used more heavily at the next level.
Andrew Luck: Quarterback, leader, owner of a large beard
I have to admit a large degree of shock when the Seahawks went into New York and beat the Giants. This is a team that played very poorly against San Francisco and Pittsburgh, did just enough to beat a hopeless Arizona team and for one half was thoroughly dominated by the Atlanta Falcons. Then someone flipped a switch at half time of the Falcons game and this has been a completely different team.
Maybe it’s the injection of quality provided by a playmaker like Sidney Rice, forcing teams to gameplan a Seahawks receiver (what a novelty) drawing pressure away from the offensive line and opening up space for other players like the emerging Doug Baldwin? Maybe it’s a case of the offensive line – robbed of crucial work time with Tom Cable during the lockout – suddenly starting to play like a group that warranted the high level of investment?
Whatever the reason, suddenly what looked like the NFL’s worst offense in week two is now doing quite well. The defense continues to thrive against the run and while consistent pressure is not being created on passing downs, Chris Clemons continues to produce sacks to draw attention away from the reality that Seattle’s pass rush still needs improving.
They had a bit of luck against New York – the kind of luck that was maybe lacking to crown that comeback against the Falcons. The end result, for better or worse, is zero luck . Andrew Luck. He is but a distant memory for those who at one point projected – not unfairly – that the Seahawks may be worst team in the NFL this year. That isn’t going to happen. Even two wins might be too much of an ask for Indianapolis, Miami or even struggling St. Louis. This Seahawks team will not ‘lose out’ from here, particularly with four NFC West games remaining on the schedule including two meetings with the imploding Rams.
This is a draft blog, so what questions should we ask for the long term future if the team is experiencing an upturn in form? One thing remains, unmoved – unchanged. Regardless of improved play from Tarvaris Jackson, this team needs to draft a quarterback. People can try and believe there’s some magic winning formula that doesn’t include an upper echelon quarterback, but consistent winning does coincide with owning an elite trigger man. Undoubtedly the best way to secure that quarterback is to draft one early in the first round. Not just any random player, the right player. It just so happens that more often than not in the modern era of scouting and public attention, the right players are identified and leave the board early.
Perhaps Jackson (or Charlie Whitehurst) does enough to remove the previously hideous prospect of this being anything more than a one-year fix at the position post-Matt Hasselbeck? Ideally you’re not starting the rookie, but then ideally you’re not starting a freshman quarterback in college and that’s something Pete Carroll didn’t shirk away from. This is a young team, it might as well have a young quarterback, right? Let’s just draft a guy first before we get into that.
So working under the assumption Seattle is improving enough to at least be competitive, what is realistic for the rest of the season? Can they go to Cleveland after the bye and beat a Browns outfit experiencing a similar transitional period under a new front office? Have they got the momentum to follow it up by beating another young team in Cincinnati at home? At 4-3 you wouldn’t be intimidated by a trip to Dallas, right?
Suddenly your imagination runs wild when a mere seven days ago only the most optimistic of fans would be predicting anything but a 1-4 record going into the bye week.
People were considering the draft this season earlier than maybe they ever had before. It wasn’t just Andrew Luck, the question being thrown around was basically ‘is this team bad enough to finally get a good quarterback?’ It’s now switched, with people now considering whether this team will end up being too good to draft a good quarterback. Quite the turn around.
Interestingly I’ve had more people asking about defensive lineman on Twitter and via email since the Giants win. It seems like a world of possibility has opened up at other positions, while one has potentially been slammed shut at quarterback. Are the Seahawks going to win their way out of drafting a franchise QB?
I look at this two ways. Firstly, while the win over New York was impressive, there’s still a lot of mystery about this team. We’ve seen so many extremes – really bad, really good, incredibly mediocre and superb. What’s the truth? Is it somewhere in the middle? Basically a middle of the road situation? Win the next two and people will be talking about the playoffs. Lose the next two and people will start asking about Andrew Luck again. Either appears to be a realistic possibility, meaning guarded optimism may be the best approach.
Secondly, what should we make of the quarterback situation if the team does continue to improve? Hyperbole about an other worldly group of quarterbacks in 2012 has died a death – hardly anyone is saying that anymore. People clung to Ryan Tannehill but that settled down quickly. Now Mel Kiper is claiming Robert Griffin III is a first rounder, an assesment I respect but don’t agree with at all. I’ve never moved from this being a two-horse race in round one with Luck and Matt Barkley. Should Barkley return to USC (very possible) what are we left with? Even against a rank bad Texas, I found issues with Landry Jones. When you look at the tape (see below) he makes some nice throws. The play action on the first offensive snap was well executed to allow the receiver an opportunity to make the most of the situation.
He’s mastered the left side fade to Kenny Stills and goes to it often with a degree of success. It’s a scripted play that wouldn’t work this regularly at the next level, but college teams are so focused in on Ryan Broyles Oklahoma can pair him next to Stills and Jones just has to pump the flare or short route to create the space downfield. Florida State got caught watching Broyles and so did Texas at the weekend. A pro team would see that play work against FSU and work to remove it, Texas failed to do this. It’ll be interesting to see if Oklahoma can keep going back to that play.
Jones is at his best in the shotgun, not needing to move his feet (or using a basic three step drop from the gun) and directing traffic from a clean pocket. In that environment, he’s able to pick his passes and move the ball. If you notice the vast majority of his snaps come with very little movement or footwork and he’s afforded a clear vision of his routes and what’s available. He benefits from this as much as Oklahoma benefits from his talent as a passer, but he’s sharp when protected and the misses are outnumbered by the crisp slants and solid intermediate completions. He won’t enjoy such luxuries in the NFL.
Let’s talk about the issues with his play…. He’s less mobile than I originally considered based on 2011 tape and knowing that he can’t move away from pressure he panics. Look at 1:24 on the video below and tell me that’s the level of composure you want to see against a one man rush in the QB’s line of vision? Jones has a huge zone of space in front of him to step into the pocket taking the defensive end out of the play and buying more than enough time to complete a pass. Instead, he panics and bails on the play. He looks so uncomfortable running with the ball (see the bootleg at at 1:52) and he’s not going to extend plays consistently using his feet.
In all but one game I’ve watched of Jones he consistently fails to check out of a deep pass in good coverage. I’m not sure if he’s just too zoned in on specific calls or whether it’s a decision making or progression problem, but I hate seeing him throw careless deep balls to receivers who have no reason to expect the pass to come their way in double coverage. Also, if the deep route is receiving extra attention there should be a nice single coverage options if not on a second or third receiver, then certainly to your checkdown whether that’s a back or one of the wide outs.
I was a fan of Ryan Mallett last year – a player you would never describe as ‘elusive’. Technically, however, Mallett was a surgeon in the pocket with an arm to die for. He was clinical, precise and for all his well advertised flaws had an excellent football brain. What’s more he was an extreme big play threat, providing that rare ‘touchdown with one pass’ ability anywhere on the field. You could bring the heat against Mallett, but you ran the risk of being burned. Jones isn’t anywhere close to that level of polish and he lacks the excellent physical skills and big play ability. Very little was scripted about Mallett’s game in a complex pro-style offense and despite his awful straight line speed he did a better job – in my opinion – avoiding pressure to extend plays than we see from Landry Jones. They are very different prospects, despite having one similar weakness.
What is slightly contradictory about this is Jones’ ability to operate a great screen game under pressure. It’s hard to diagnose Oklahoma are going to run a screen, a team will have Jones in a difficult situation yet he has a knack of one tilt of the arm and dumping off to a receiver or running back. It’s completely deceptive and brilliant – something clearly the Sooners spend a lot of time on. How much of this will reciprocate to the next level? I’m unsure, but one of the big problems I have with Jones is the little things he’s mastered through game planning and execution (screens, left side fade after a pump fake) are too basic to work with such regularity in the NFL. Can he open his game out, or will he be found out instead?
Tape supplied by JMPasq
It’s important to mention at this stage that some people do view Jones as a potential high pick. He’s high on both Todd McShay and Mel Kiper’s boards, Tony Pauline on the other hand had a pre-season grade of round four. My own view is round 2-3, but I can see a situation where he can go much higher. I have to say I hope that’s the case, particularly if it allows a player like Matt Barkley (should he declare) to remain available later on. I can also see a situation where I’m proven somewhat correct about Jones and while he might be the 3rd best quarterback available next year, the Seahawks and several other teams are faced with a dilemma of possibly committing to someone perhaps not worthy of the investment – a potentially fatal mistake if it backfires – or again ignoring the position.
Do they wait until later, again ignoring the most important position in the NFL? By next April it’ll be 19 years since the Seahawks last drafted a quarterback in round one, an astonishing fact. Some fans will have witnessed the drafting of Rick Mirer in 1993 and since had children that are now in college. Incredible. There are players who will be available later on – such as Southern Miss QB Austin Davis – with starting potential down the line. Can the Seahawks afford to coast along at quarterback until such a player is deemed ready to start? If that’s the plan, will Josh Portis be afforded the opportunity to stake his claim?
I suspect this isn’t going to be a deep draft pool of high end talent. In fact, as things stand today it’s the weakest looking class I’ve covered to date. Undoubtedly it’ll be glorified due to the presence of one brilliant prospect in Andrew Luck. I come to this conclusion – if the Seahawks really are a bad team that picks in the top 5-10 range, for pity’s sake take a quarterback. If the Seahawks are middling or – heaven forbid – back in the post season… do what it takes to ensure one of two excellent quarterback prospects in Luck or Barkley are swapping California for Seattle. Yes it may be very expensive. It may take a deal of worrying proportions to get it done. Sure, maybe fortune favors the conservative and ‘the guy’ just falls into your lap like Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. I wouldn’t necessarily take that chance, you have to be pro-active.
The dreaded situation would be one that is almost permanently short term. Stop gap is a more frightening word than short term, but that’s what it would always be. Seattle won’t get anywhere looking for their version of Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee without the Jake Locker waiting in the wings. Carson Palmer in the 2011 off season for a modest price in preparation of drafting a quarterback in 2012? Sure, why not. Carson Palmer as a justification for looking at other positions next April in a pre-draft trade? Not so keen. Tarvaris Jackson is a guy who truly deserves a lot of credit for the work he’s done so far in getting on with things in a difficult situation. Even so, rightly or wrongly he is never going to be accepted as anything but a seat warmer for an eventual successor.
This Seahawks team has shown a lot of promise, a lot of improvement and it has – with Pete Carroll – got an identity. It deserves a proper investment at the quarterback position to really get things moving.
A cautionary note here: the tape you see below is very impressive. You will see two Oklahoma defensive lineman dominating their opponents in a manner which will leave you impressed and hoping they’ll swap red for blue next season when they enter the NFL. What’s more, they’re both possible scheme fits in Seattle – which kind of helps.
However, try not to read too much into what you see – at least only on this evidence. The Texas team they were facing is a complete mess. The offensive performance in the game was quite frankly unacceptable for a school with the well earned reputation Texas has. The Longhorns are used to promoting NFL talent and winning football games with style, yet this current version is so bad you’re tempted to question what on earth is going on?
Partly it’s down to two freshman quarterbacks who clearly are nowhere near ready to start sharing the responsibility of trying to create something like a functioning offense. It’s not working, but it’s not just down to the quarterbacks. The effort, the organisation, the playcalling is so bad it makes a mockery of the ridiculous #11 AP ranking Texas carried into the game where they were blown out by the Sooners 55-17 – a scoreline that totally flatters the Longhorns.
Frank Alexander (Senior DE, 6-4 255lbs) had three sacks and flashed the kind of range, technique and speed to warrant serious LEO consideration. He now has 5.5 sacks for the season after a seven sack campaign last year. Ronnell Lewis (Junior DE/LB, 6-2 244lbs) is probably too small to play in a four man front as a LEO, but could offer a long term option at outside linebacker while playing some rush downs up front in certain situations. Lewis had two sacks in the game, taking his tally to 3.5 for the season.
Watch the videos, enjoy, keep this pair in your minds for the future as Oklahoma move through their schedule with some tougher tests ahead against much greater offensive opponents. You can only beat what’s in front of you, but this shambolic Texas team was no match for a Sooners defense which is under rated and fun to watch. What we have to judge now is whether this was a case of a serious difference in class for one week, or whether players like Alexander and Lewis are capable of adding a needed boost to the sadly lacking group of talented defenders shaping up to be part of the 2012 draft class.
With a cluster of talented players, 2012 could be a big year for the receiver position. Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) is my top rated wide out so far but he tops a long list of players who are primed to hear their names called early next April. Although the class lacks a true ‘freak of nature’ type in the form of A.J. Green and Julio Jones (Robert Woods (WR, USC) appears to be the next in line for such a grade, however as a true sophomore he will not be eligible for the 2012 draft) but this is still a deep group with several players likely to go in the first two rounds.
Dwight Jones (WR, UNC)
Jones is the complete package, whether you’re talking about physical size (6-4, 225lbs), speed, ability to adjust to the football and make difficult catches, YAC threat, fluidity as an open field runner, a hands catcher who doesn’t drop easy passes and big play ability. He previously lacked consistent production, but he’s started the 2011 season with 605 yards and seven touchdowns in his first six games (better production than Justin Blackmon so far).
I have no issues projecting Jones as a someone with true top 10-15 potential. For team’s like St. Louis who lack a consistent do-it-all go-to receiver for their young quarterback, this is a player who truly fits the bill.
Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
At his best Blackmon reminds me of Roddy White – with similar all round skill set and physical qualities (he’s 6-1, 211lbs – White is an inch shorter and a pound heavier). Unfortunately there are too many little things that bug me about Blackmon to really promote him into the top-10/15 bracket with Dwight Jones. For starters – contrary to popular opinion – he will drop the occasional easy pass. His mass-production at Oklahoma State clouds this fact a little bit, but he’s not a pure hands catcher who’s always going to be that reliable target. He does pair this frustrating streak with spectacular plays and his body control when catching the ball – particularly in the red zone – is fantastic.
You want to see a level of intensity at the position and Blackmon has a competitive streak. Combine that with experience running a variety of routes – most of which he’s mastered – an excellent double move and enough speed to be a deep threat and it’s easy to see why Blackmon will be a first round pick next April. He’s not a rare talent and won’t run a stunning forty yard dash, so his stock in my view will remain in the 16-32 range along with Alshon Jeffery (see below).
Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Another big bodied wide out at 6-4 227lbs, Jeffery has great control for his size when locating the football to make downfield plays. He’s deceptive in that it takes him a while to get up to full speed, often surprising the defensive back who’s caught a bit flat footed from the initial break. There’s a bit of Jonathan Baldwin to Jeffery, but I actually prefer Baldwin’s potential because he was a little more explosive and had superior deep speed. Jeffery doesn’t have the same effort problems and is considered to be a hard worker and integral part of the South Carolina team. Yet without those surprising athletic abilities for a big receiver, it’s difficult to project him as anything more than a really solid #2 wide out at the next level.
His production suffered for a patch this season when Stephen Garica was starting and playing like a guy who’s spent the entire off season in chaos (which he has). Receivers rely a lot on stable quarterback situations to maximise their draft potential and Jeffery is unlikely to match his 1517 yard effort from 2010. He may not be the universal top ten pick many are projecting, but he’s certainly a player who will find a home in the first round.
A.J. Jenkins (WR, Illinois)
This was my first opportunity to watch Jenkins – he’s one of only two wide outs to have more yards than USC’s Robert Woods so far. Like Dwight Jones he’s entered his senior year without really maxing out his potential so far, but with 815 yards in six games including seven touchdowns – he’s become the focal point of Illinois’ offense. Having entered the season with a nominal grade in the late rounds or even as an UDFA, this is an impressive response. A consistent hands catcher with good deep speed who runs relatively good routes will interest NFL teams and he could be a surprise riser this year who breaks into the top band of draftable receivers.
The one thing he does need to do is add some muscle. He tends to get pushed around a lot and to cope at the next level, he’ll need greater upper body strength.
Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
A true all rounder who could be used on running downs, trick plays and on special teams – Sanu has developed into an excellent pure receiver who offers rare benefits as a blocker. I’ve been a fan of Sanu’s ever since his freshman season and have tracked his progress since. Continual quarterback controversies at Rutgers threatened to stall his career, but it’s pleasing to see that he’s come through it strongly and is reaping the benefits of a more settled environment in 2011. Sanu has 45 catches for 455 yards and five touchdowns this year – in the entire 2010 season he had 44 catches for 418 yards and just two touchdowns. The difference is palpable.
Sanu’s biggest asset aside from the physical qualities are his hands and experience running a full route tree. Teams will be able to utilise his speed downfield while also finding ways to get him the ball in open space – he could be a 6-2, 215lbs version of Percy Harvin in that regard, but I see him developing into a very dangerous complete wide out in the right system. An under rated player with undisputed first round ability in my mind.
Jeff Fuller (WR, Texas A&M)
Fuller has first round tools and may well play his best football at the next level. However, he’s had a disappointing start to the 2011 season and I’ve had to downgrade him from a player with top-15 potential to borderline first round pick. The Aggies have switched to a pure spread system using a lot of option reads and screen passes, which has taken away a lot of Fuller’s effectiveness so far. He’s still making catches (27 receptions) but not for big yardage (280 yards). To compare, last season he was recording 14.8 yards per catch, it’s now down at 10.4 yards.
He’s still the one player last season who gave Patrick Peterson a headache and if his production picks up throughout A&M’s remaining schedule, there’s still a chance he could get back into round one contention.
Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
The triple threat offense accounts for big downfield plays from it’s receivers when the cornerbacks cheat up in run support, but it doesn’t provide a steady stream of receptions. It’s the main reason Stephen Hill’s had an up and down year in terms of production in 2011. Even so, the Yellow Jackets have created a production line of talented, physically excellent receivers and Hill is no different.
He’s only a junior but may turn pro if he receives a high grade from the draft committee. He’s capable of the spectacular, but he lacks the kind of polish seen with players like Dwight Jones. He’s not a huge guy at 6-5, 210lbs – but if he combines it with a fast forty yard dash (which he’s capable of doing) his stock will sky rocket. Hill also has the frame to add a bit of extra weight without losing any of his quickness.
Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
Off the field issues concern me about Floyd, particularly the chaos that followed him from the end of last season to finally taking the field in 2011. We’ll not dwell on that now, because his production has been good for Notre Dame and it’s testament to his natural physical talent that there’s been no side affects to all of the problems away from the game and time spent away from practise.
However, good production won’t hide those problems in the eyes of NFL teams and I maintain that Floyd isn’t so good that they’ll be swept under the carpet. He’s a big guy with big production, but he’s a sloppy route runner who still body catches too much for my liking. He won’t run a blazing time at the combine and he didn’t receive a particularly favorable report from the draft committee when he was considering entering this year’s draft.
Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Wright has actually been a consistent performer for Baylor over the years, but with Robert Griffin III’s recent boost in popularity suddenly his top target is getting some deserved attention. Just behind Robert Woods for receiving yards this year, Wright has been in sensational form with 690 yards and eight touchdowns in just five games.
At 5-10 and 190lbs he’s smaller than the other receivers listed here, but he has track speed and presents a real deep threat ability. His complete game will need polish because he’s not a strong route runner and he wastes time getting into his breaks, but he could offer an instant boost on kick returns and on deep routes.
Honorable mentions: Juron Criner (WR, Arizona), Nick Toon (WR, Wisconsin), Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma)
