Author: Rob Staton (Page 398 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Johnny Patrick (CB, Louisville) game tape

April 17, 2011 / Rob Staton

I had one opportunity to watch Louisville in 2010, during their bowl game against Southern Miss. One player stood out for both teams, quarterback Austin Davis for the Golden Eagles and cornerback Johnny Patrick for the Cardinals. Let’s look at the tape, courtesy of Aaron Aloysius:

Patrick had five interceptions as a senior, one touchdown and a sack. He’s obviously not a great size/speed combo or the kind of player you are going to consider early on. He ran a 4.52 and a 4.46 at the combine and he’s listed at 5-11 and 188lbs, which isn’t anything special. However, it’s the ball skills that make him stand out. He’s always around the ball, appears to take good angles and the instincts are there. The five interceptions back that perception up and teams will always be interested in guys who can play the ball.

There are some concerns. It’s believed work rate hasn’t been considered a strong point until his senior year when the light appeared to switch on. Other reports suggest that mistakes get to his head and lead to further errors. Looking at the tape his sprinting speed and change of direction don’t always match and there is some stiffness in the hips.

When he’s at his best, he looks like a second round pick. Other aspects could make him a candidate for Seattle in rounds four or five.

Be pro-active Seattle… go get your quarterback

April 16, 2011 / Rob Staton

Face of a franchise?

Pete Carroll and John Schneider say they aren’t locked into a position this year like they were with the left tackles in 2010. That’s just common sense really, given that the Seahawks are picking 25th overall and not 6th. It’s easier to target a specific position or player when you know that only five will be off the board before your choice. Then again, would you admit to the world if you were planning a big splash?

In his end of season press conference, Carroll contradicted himself slightly. Initially he said improving both lines was crucial during the off season and through the draft, yet at the end he also said re-signing Matt Hasselbeck was the priority. That hasn’t happened, obviously, so does quarterback automatically become the biggest need? Personally I’ve always felt it was by far the biggest need because Hasselbeck will be 36 this September – almost certainly making him the oldest starting quarterback in the league. The team can look at stopgaps and hope solutions appear once a CBA is finally agreed (or the injunction forces free agency) but it’s high time this team invested in a quarterback for the long haul.

I have no idea what the Seahawks are planning for April 28th. I suspect if they are leaning towards one position – such as the quarterback – they could be aggressive in acquiring the guy they want. I don’t think any of the top four quarterbacks will make it past the middle of round one, so I’d at least look to see how far up the board I could get using the team’s second round pick (#57 overall). When all is said and done, one second round pick to try and secure the quarterback position long term is small change. Yes the team has major needs across the board, but you need to be aggressive sometimes – particularly with quarterbacks.

It doesn’t always have to be a big move either. Tampa Bay moved up two spots in 2009 – from #19 to #17 – in order to guarantee they’d draft Josh Freeman. It only cost the Buccs a 6th round pick, which in hindsight was an absolute bargain. Teams will take a chance moving down, so it makes sense to see what is out there. Let me ask you this… if the Buccs had spent a second round pick instead to get further up the board and draft Freeman, would you say that was a bad move now?

That’s not to say any of the 2011 quarterbacks will have the impact Freeman has had in Tampa Bay and obviously if you don’t believe in Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett (the two quarterbacks I believe the team could logically target via trade) it’s not a move you’re considering at all. If you do look at these guys and see franchise quarterback potential – I would argue you should do what it takes to get them. The Seahawks can’t fully rebuild until they have their long term quarterback on the roster. Build to their strengths, limit the weaknesses. This is the time to make the investment, don’t set out a scheme today with the new offensive coordinator which may need to be modified in 12 months time.

How easy is it to trade up these days? Let me refer you to my recent article on the subject.

We can also look at last year’s draft – the best starting point for considering big trades up the board. San Diego went from #28 all the way up to #12, trading with the Dolphins. The deal included Miami receiving a second round pick (#40). The two teams also swapped fourth round picks (to the benefit of San Diego) and the Chargers also received a sixth round selection.

Obviously Seattle’s second round pick is 17-picks lower than the one San Diego traded to Miami, but then the Chargers also received compensation in later round stock for sacrificing the #40.

The very next pick, Philadelphia traded #24 to Denver for the #13 selection. It cost the Eagles two third round picks (#70 and #87) worth approximately 415 points according to NFL Draft 101’s updated trade value chart. The chart says Philly over paid slightly, but Seattle’s #57 pick is worth around 350 points. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that teams in the 10-16 range will be willing to move down to acquire another second round pick.

I know a lot people do not rate Locker and Mallett as highly as me (I have Mallett ranked very highly on my big board). I’m not the only one who believes Ryan Mallett can have a Philip Rivers-style impact on the league and manage an offense similar to the one we see in San Diego. ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted this today:

Phil Simms with Tim Ryan and Pat Kirwan on QB Ryan Mallett: “If he’s not a top 10 player (in this draft), then I quit.”

NFL Films guru Greg Cosell also chipped in on the debate:

Studied more Mallet. Best NFL skill set in draft. Physical pocket presence. Delivered in muddied pocket. Willing to make stick throws. Know nothing about off-field. On film, possesses more NFL traits than Gabbert or Newton, plus NFL pass concepts in college. Mallet pocket mobility a concern. But after 400 snaps saw a number of plays in which he moved, re-set and delivered accurately.

Like I said, I know people will disagree completely with the suggestion of moving up and the guys I’m touting as the motive. If I can trade up and take a shot on Ryan Mallett based purely on the tape, I’m doing it. We hear all about the character problems, yet nobody has ever gone into details and shown hard evidence. I’ve never met the guy, I can’t judge him. Maybe my opinion changes after several meetings, work outs and dinner’s? Watching the tape I’m seeing the physical tools, the pro-concepts, the ability to diagnose a defense, progress through his reads and be accurate enough to make the big arm effective. He’s not flawless, I know every argument that is critical of his game. Even so, if I can secure Mallett using the #25 and the #57 I’m doing it.

For people wondering about scheme – I say adapt it. Mimic Norv Turner’s offense in San Diego. Task Tom Cable to create a clean pocket – why else do you make the big splash on an offensive line coach? Of course you need players too, so go get a Gallery or a Joseph to play guard, consider re-signing Chris Spencer and find the way to upgrade the right tackle position without needing to spend the top picks (it is possible, believe it or not). Kansas City turned their offensive line from a major negative into a great positive in a short space of time, it isn’t impossible if you have the right plan.

Is this realistic? I have my doubts, not only because you’ll need to find a willing trade partner – but I also remain unconvinced Pete Carroll and John Schneider feel the way I do about Mallett. That’s just a hunch.

When EA Sports were looking for a Seahawks star to put in the cover competition for Madden 12, they chose the fans. Such is the dearth of playmakers and star quality on the Seahawks roster. That can change very quickly with the right investment at quarterback – just ask Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Baltimore. Sure they all have better supporting casts than the Seahawks right now (borderline re: St.Louis) but they were all bad enough at one point to draft a quarterback early. Tampa Bay are the exception, but they were 3-13 before Freeman took over as the full-time starter. Atlanta and Baltimore had four and five wins respectively before drafting Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008. St. Louis were a one-win team.

To win in this league, you need a quarterback. If the Seahawks see a franchise quarterback available in round one, they need to be pro-active.

***Note***

I’d like to draw attention to some design changes for the blog which will be in place shortly after the draft. I’m going to incorporate a new ‘home page’ which will largely be used to highlight articles that have moved off the front page and are not time sensitive. It’s also a chance to incorporate an on-going poll and some YouTube tape. It’ll also mean modifications to the menu bar. Obviously this will mean needing to click a link to get to the actual blog, so I want your feedback on that. You can see a teaser for the new look by clicking here.

I also want to test the water for perhaps running a live chat programme on the blog during the first two days of the draft. Is this something you’d be interested in?

The big board

April 15, 2011 / Rob Staton

Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph makes the cut

I’m not a big fan of big boards. How do you distinguish between prospects of a similar level? What puts a guy at #3 instead of #4? It’s a way for the likes of Mel Kiper to tally who’s stock is rising or falling, but the changes are sometimes so intricate it’s hardly worth the bother.

I like the way Gil Brandt does things. He separates the prospects into tier’s, grouping guys together of a similar quality.

A few people have asked about a big board on the blog and it’s something I’ve avoided previously. With less than a fortnight to go until the 2011 draft, I thought I’d put something together using the Brandt methodology. It’s a top-25 broken into seperate tiers that are explained along the way.

Tier one: Prospects in contention to go first overall

This is only a small list, but if you own the #1 overall pick you don’t need a cluster of names. These three are the prospects I’d consider drafting with the top choice and if I’m in the top five, I’m hoping to grab one of these guys. The quarterback will always take preference if you have a need at the position, although you don’t just include the top prospect for the sake of it. If you have a franchise quarterback or made that investment recently, you probably aren’t going in that direction here.

Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
Newton has limitless potential and is a better passer than he gets credit for. He’s a player you can build a franchise around for the long term, but I also believe he can have an instant impact working in a scaled down playbook. If I was forming a listed big board like Mel Kiper, Newton would be #1.

AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
A really polished route runner who flashes a competitive streak despite not having the biggest frame. He’s quick rather than elite in terms of speed, but he has so much control and should produce quickly in his career. Capable of spectacular plays and can become a quarterback’s best friend.

Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
Bowers is a beast and despite all the recent talk of injuries – if he passes the medical checks I’m still taking him very early. You watch him during that 16-sack season and see major potential to be a dominant force at the next level. I’d be looking for 8-10 sacks as a rookie, which is a realistic target.

Tier two: Prospects you’d consider in the top-ten

The next group are players you’d be happy to take in the first ten picks and would provide excellent value in that 11-20 range if they fall.

Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
If I don’t have a quarterback and I’m picking in the top ten, I’m looking at Mallett strongly. He has the physical tools, he understands pro-concepts, he’s a surgeon progressing through reads and he has the necessary experience controlling an offense and changing plays at the line of scrimmage. There’s been too much negativity surrounding this guy.

Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
Peterson has all the tools to become an all-rounder – he’s a good coverage guy, physical against the run and he provides a threat as a kick returner. He’s capable of taking on a top-receiver one-on-one and competing, we saw that in two games against Julio Jones.

Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)
Perhaps a player with even more potential than Peterson. When you watch Smith on tape, he has everything you look for in a cornerback. Many would argue differently, but I think there’s every chance he’ll have a better career than Peterson.

Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
Scheme flexible and is more than capable of playing as a disruptive force up the middle or setting the edge against the run. He won’t be a big stat-guy at the next level, but whoever takes him will notice his value.

Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
Unmatched quickness off the snap and has a cluster of moves to compliment that burst. He will consistently get into the backfield warranting extra attention, which will create opportunities for your edge rushers. Has a nasty streak which will lead to penalties, but manage it and you can turn it into a positive.

Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
He’s quick for his size and teams in a 4-3 should still consider him. Fluid technician who finds ways to get into the backfield. Jordan’s best years will come in the pro’s and with a star personality to match his talent, there’s no reason why teams shouldn’t consider him very early.

Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
Bounced back from an inconsistent 2009 to show real progress in Alabama’s run heavy offense. Understands routes and how to get open, elite size and speed combination. Jones can make Hollywood plays but also offer a safety net for a young quarterback. He’s dedicated and comes from a great programme that emphasises blocking.

Tier three: Prospects who could go in the top 10-15 based on need but are graded between 10-25

If your big need is quarterback or left tackle and you’re picking in the top ten, you might consider a guy in tier three. I hate using the word ‘reach’ because some positions are too important to ignore. If I’m holding a pick in the 11-25 range these are the guys I look at first, including anyone else who may have fallen out of my top two tiers.

Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
Has everything you look for in a top quarterback – mobility, good arm, character and he’s accurate. Even so, he’s been inconsistent and there is a certain degree of ‘unknown’ about Gabbert. The system he comes from in Missouri makes it difficult to make a full judgement either way. I’d take him in the top ten, but I put him behind Newton and Mallett and into tier three.

Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
Loves the game and plays every snap like it might be his last. Ingram has major star quality minus the elite breakaway speed, but he’ll be a work horse with major production if he’s drafted by a team that can run the ball. Intelligent, driven, understands blocking and has the vision to turn a small hole into a big gain.

Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
Ideal size for the three technique position and has a great first step off the snap. Consistently disruptive on tape and he’ll get into the backfield and force mistakes. He hasn’t got the production of Fairley or the scheme adaptability of Dareus, but he comes a close third in a strong group of defensive tackles.

Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
It became apparent towards the end of the college season that Smith would be the best offensive tackle in a class lacking that elite player at the position. This choice is based completely on upside – he has the frame, the lateral mobility and the strength to be one of the best in the NFL. You’re taking a chance, but it’s a calculated gamble.

JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
He hasn’t got the elite speed and he’s more perspiration than style, but JJ Watt finds a way to make plays. Every week he’ll play hard and he’ll over achieve. In 2010 he had seven sacks, an interception and he blocked three kicks. He’s strictly a 3-4 defensive end, but in that scheme he’ll do what it takes to have an impact.

Robert Quinn (DE, North Carolina)
There are things that concern me about Quinn – the tumor and the lack of football for two years ahead of his rookie season. I think he’s best suited to an orthodox 4-3 or the LEO position in Seattle. The tape shows real edge quality and no lack of effort, but he hasn’t got a great repertoire. If he plays college ball in 2010 and gets 10+ sacks he’d be a candidate to go second overall, instead he drops into tier three.

Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
Another player who could be higher but has some issues. Did he return from injury too quickly in 2010? He didn’t look the same dominant player from 2009 with top-ten potential. Smith was anonymous in the bowl defeat to Iowa. Otherwise he’s got perfect size for a 4-3 end, great technique and a better range than Robert Quinn.

Jabaal Sheard (DE, Pittsburgh)
Under rated player with the potential to be better than Quinn and Smith. Sheard plays hard every snap and he’s great against the run. He’s not the biggest statistically, but he looks big on tape. Speed is right up there off the edge and he was one of the quicker ends at the combine. Love the guy, his best years are to come and he fits both schemes.

Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida)
Just a solid player who starts in week one and gets on with his job. Had problems snapping early in the 2010 season but made corrections. I still prefer him at guard but teams who need a center should have no issues making this pick. The ultimate safe, unspectacular choice and good teams like New York and San Diego should consider this, with Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Philadelphia close behind.

Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M)
I have Miller as a pure 4-3 outside linebacker. He can rush the passer from that position and still generate sacks – he could have a Julian Peterson type impact on the league. But the fact he’s a linebacker and can’t play up at the line lowers his stock for me. He’ll get washed out against the run up front and speed is really his only true asset. It’s also a big asset to have, of course.

Tier four: Prospects I’d grade as top-25 picks

Obviously players in this group will be off the board due to need (I fully expect Jake Locker to be drafted by Washington). However, these are the last five players I’d grade as part of my top-25.

Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
If I needed a quarterback and the top three are gone, in this range I take a chance on Locker’s upside. He can become a great player in the NFL, something that’s often forgotten. There will be growing pains.

Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
Looks sensational given his size and moves freely for a big tackle. The weight instantly makes people think he’ll play the nose, but I could see him at the five technique and maybe even playing some three technique.

Stephen Paea (DT, Orego State)
Slightly undersized for a 4-3 nose tackle, but offers so much value against the run. Added some pass rush production as a senior but his value in the NFL will come as a run stopper. If I’m Indianapolis, I ignore the need at offensive tackle to take this guy at #22.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, Notre Dame)
Injuries have hampered his stock but there’s no doubt to me a clean bill of health secures a first round grade. He’s a playmaker who adds dimensions to an offense, opening up the playbook.

Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
You’re getting an athletic player with potential to become a solid if unspectacular starter. He will make mistakes and he’s not going to be a great playmaker, but he’s a solid pick.

Just missed out:

Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa), Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State), Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona), Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA).

Players I rate higher than most:

Jordan Todman (RB, Connecticut), James Carpenter (OT, Alabama), Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma), Brandon Burton (CB, Utah), Pernell McPhee (DE, Miss. State), Ricky Stanzi (QB, Iowa)

Andy Dalton is not a first round pick

April 14, 2011 / Rob Staton

Andy Dalton a first round pick? Not for me.

Twelve months ago, Colt McCoy was a late first round pick. He was a winner in college, setting records galore for Texas. Forget the faults because this guy could win.

I was never a fan and thought he deserved a late round grade, but would probably settle in the fourth round due to the reputation and ability to ‘win’. During the season only Mel Kiper stuck by a high grade, consistently keeping him at #25 on his big board despite a largely negative view every else. He wasn’t really on the radar as a high draft pick because the flaws were pretty obvious.

He had a slow start to the off season having spent a large portion of it recovering from an injury picked up in the BCS Championship defeat to Alabama. Yet once McCoy recovered and participated in his pro-day, the hype machine kicked into gear. Suddenly he was being talked about as a late first round pick. Really? What about the tape? We’d all seen it and nobody really considered McCoy a first round talent previously. Physically not great, not accurate enough to compensate, too many mistakes. What gives?

Peter King was one of McCoy’s fans, touting him as a late first rounder. When asked in his MMQB article one week about the possibility of Tim Tebow going in the first round, King replied:

“I probably would pick McCoy if I had the choice. I think he’s getting vastly underrated entering the last round of evaluations of the quarterbacks.”

Todd McShay was at McCoy’s pro-day and filed this report for ESPN (see video below). Notice the term ‘West Coast Offense’.

Mary Kay-Cabot from the Cleveland Plain Dealer had this piece on McCoy before the draft:

“Most experts have McCoy ranked behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen, and projected to go in the second round. But if the Browns hope to land him — and there are strong indications they’d like to — they might have to either trade back from No. 7 or up from No. 38 to secure him late in the first round.”

22% of fans voting in this Minnesota Vikings poll wanted the team to draft McCoy at #30 overall, second only to Devin McCourty (29%) (well, they actually call him Derrick – I’m not sure how good Derrick McCourty is).

Draft Nasty mocked McCoy to #30 as well, stating:

“With the uncertain future of current quarterback Brett Favre, the Vikings may look to take the most accurate quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft class.”

Draft day arrived and by that point more and more people were projecting McCoy as a possible first round pick or at worst, an early second rounder. Mike Mayock from the NFL Network believed he would be an early second round pick. For two rounds McCoy waited. He saw Sam Bradford go first overall, but as this video shows– the patience was perhaps starting to thin out when Tim Tebow was the second quarterback off the board. The words used when Jimmy Clausen was the first quarterback taken on day two? “It’s crazy… nothing’s ever been easy.”

He lasted until the end of round three and was taken by the Cleveland Browns. Remember them? One of the teams supposedly who might be trading up into the bottom of round one.

When all was said and done McCoy went in the range the initial evaluations suggested – right in the middle of draft, perhaps a couple of rounds earlier than he probably should’ve done. He was a project without the great physical talent. Cleveland were starting a new era with a west coast offense, managed by Mike Holmgren as team president.

Fast forward a year and tell me the difference between the McCoy hype and all this ‘Andy Dalton in round one’ talk?

It started when John Clayton touted the possibility of Seattle taking one of the second tier quarterbacks in round one, including Dalton. It was a surprise but not so much in the context Clayton was debating. His view was that a reach may be necessary to fill the most important position and clearly taking Dalton there was a reach. My surprise was based around the thought that Dalton wouldn’t be there at #57. After all, this was a guy generously being talked about as a possible third or fourth round pick – perhaps later still.

Then came Trent Dilfer’s contribution.

“One of the reasons why he hasn’t generated as much momentum and hype is because what personnel and coaches do at this time of the year when they’ve kind of settle on who they want, they’re going to shut up about that guy. You’ll hear a lot of good stuff about (Arkansas’ Ryan) Mallett in the next couple weeks because they want to use him as a smoke screen. You’re going to hear a lot of good stuff about (Florida State’s Christian) Ponder because they want to use him as a smoke screen.

“At the end of the day, the good quarterback people in this league — I will not be wrong here — are going to be wanting Andy Dalton late in the first round or early second round if he happens to fall that far. I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong here. Andy Dalton will be taken in the first round.”

The hype season was upon us. It’s probably worth adding that Dilfer has back tracked on those comments just today, suggesting now that Dalton will probably go in round two.

Nevertheless, other people have projected Dalton to Seattle at #25. Don Banks in his last two mock drafts has gone in that direction.

We’re starting to hear the same things said about Dalton that we heard about McCoy. He’s a west coast guy, he’s a winner, he’s got ‘moxy’, the stats are good. Etc etc.

History is repeating itself.

For whatever reason, we get to this time of year and quarterbacks like Dalton get a sensational press. They’re considered the safe alternative to the big name quarterback – yet how many of these guys ever go on to be full time starters? It’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult. You can have all the wins in college, nice stats coming out of a spread offense and you can be a great guy. When all is said and done, you need physical talent and you need to be accurate.

Let’s hit the tape, courtesy as always of the impeccable Aaron Alosysius:

The tape shows every snap involving Dalton in a blow out win over San Diego State. The third and fourth passes in the video against are Christian Ponder-esque and will lead to picks at the next level. There are a lot of similar play calls, option to the running back and a short screen or slant to the left designed for yards after the catch.

What Dalton does well, as emphasised here, is a strike to the outside on a medium level route. He does generate some velocity on those passes and is generally accurate. The first two touchdown passes are well executed, a fade in single coverage and a quick throw to the right which the receiver takes advantage of. At the same time, neither is a particularly difficult pass to make. I actually prefer the third and fourth touchdown passes, when he zips a slant to the outside in tight coverage perfectly and completes a tougher fade to the outside.

However, there are a lot of throws that seem to miss high or wide that aren’t that difficult. On one play he throws about 10-yards out of the end zone on a roll out. The guy isn’t a lost cause by any means in terms of accuracy, but it’s not consistent enough. Let’s also remember the level of competition he’s facing.

One thing that’s not evidenced here and is something I’ve picked up on watching several other TCU games in 2009 and 2010 is Dalton’s inability to remain focused after an error. There have been times when he’s made a poor decision or turned the ball over and let it get to him. This was a bigger issue in 2009 and it hit his confidence during a game. He improved the following year, but it’s something I’d feel I had to monitor at the next level because he can be fragile at times.

So here’s how I judge Andy Dalton – he needs to try and become Matt Hasselbeck. That is the peak for him. Get into a strict and defined offense that is based on timing and short/intermediate routes. Master the offense over 2-3 years on the sidelines and hope for time and patience as a starter when you finally get that shot. Then you have to execute.

Hasselbeck was fortunate enough to spend all of his early career with the same coach and the same system and he had that drive and determination to master the scheme. It’s maybe one of Hasselbeck’s most under rated qualities that he’s a pure football guy with a very good grasp of the game. He worked hard to become a NFL starter as a 6th round pick, but he also understood and followed the information well enough to go with the ideal coaching.

When his career didn’t start brilliantly in Seattle, he had further opportunities. When the Holmgren offense was at it’s best in Seattle, Hasselbeck was at his best too. It was only a short window, but for a period he was among the top QB’s in the league.

Dalton needs all of the same fight, all of the same consistency in coaching and the time. Even then he’s going to struggle like crazy, because there aren’t many Matt Hasselbeck’s who make it in the league. So are you taking this guy in round one? Of course not. He’s not a physically gifted athlete with mind blowing potential. He’ll need an abundance of time and coaching. He’s not a faultless decision maker with great accuracy to make up for the lack of pure physical talent.

He’s the very definition of a mid/late round flier. Round one? Not for me.

The Seahawks are not going to invest their future in a guy like Dalton in round one. Could they see him as an option after that? Perhaps, but I suspect they want someone who can be a much greater x-factor presence on a much quicker time frame. Whatever your views on Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker, they are light years ahead of Dalton in terms of physical ability and having seen all three on the board, I believe they are also above Dalton in terms of understanding a pro-system.

I don’t want to labor this point too much, but look at Dalton in his discussion with John Gruden (see video below). He gives his favorite play as a basic ‘all-go’ route with essentially a deep read and a checkdown. It is such a simple play. As Gruden points out when the roll the tape, he doesn’t notice the easy checkdown that would’ve provided a solid 25-35 yards. Instead he forces a throw deep and should be intercepted. To quote Gruden, “Ed Reed is dunking that ball over the goal post.”

Ryan Mallett makes that check down. I’d urge people to watch his piece with Gruden and compare the white board breakdown to grasp the differences between the two in terms of that pro-understanding. Gruden hates rookie quarterbacks – it aided his departure from Tampa Bay – but look at his face light up when Mallett runs through a play and practises a hard count.

There’s the difference between what you would tentatively call a pro-ready quarterback and a guy who needs to spend a lot of time with a quarterbacks coach. A first round quarterback needs to be ready to start these days. If they aren’t, then they at least need to have a high ceiling with limitless potential. Dalton is neither.

Essentially I think he’ll end up in that round 3/4 range, as did McCoy. Maybe the lack of free agency does tempt a team to take him in round two? I just think if there is going to be a quarterback reach from the second tier, it’ll be on a guy like Colin Kaepernick who at least has the physical tools to match the production and ‘winning‘. If I’m wrong and Dalton does find a home in the late first round or the early second, I’ll have no issues coming onto the blog and admitting I was flat out wrong. We’ll find out in a couple of weeks when the 2011 draft kicks off. Until then I’m standing by the stance I’ve always had – Dalton at #25 is not going to happen.

Updated two-round mock draft: 13th April

April 13, 2011 / Rob Staton

Just over two weeks ago and time for this week’s mock draft. Only two more projections after this – one next week and then a final mock on April 27th.

To see this week’s two-round mock draft click here. There’s more on the update at the end of this post.

Mocks are all about predictions and projections, most of which we base on hunches and whatever information we can gather. I’ll never try and claim my mock is any better than the next man’s because in reality I’ll probably be right on a couple of things and miss on the rest. Nobody is different in that sense.

There are some things I’m pretty confident about though and I wanted to note them here. Four projections I feel comfortable putting in writing that I can nail my colors to. I’ll note them here and after round one I’ll dig this up and we’ll see how many came true.

Prediction #1

Four quarterbacks will be off the board by the half-way point in round one (#16 overall, currently owned by Jacksonville).

Cam Newton will be the first overall pick. Blaine Gabbert could go anywhere from #2 and Denver to #4 and Cincinnati, but I suspect he’ll be a Bengal unless someone moves up. Jake Locker will be drafted by the Washington Redskins unless someone moves above them. One of the Tennessee/Minnesota/Miami/Jacksonville quartet will draft Ryan Mallett.

The greatest opposition I’ve seen to this suggestion is that it’d go against the grain for four quarterbacks to be taken this early. Unlike most I actually think that is a very solid group of first round quarterbacks who can all have success in the league. With many teams needing a young franchise signal caller, I don’t have any issues projecting four will go in the top-16. I don’t expect Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick to go in round one.

Prediction #2

Tennessee will be a wildcard.

I think the Titans will make a move that surprises people. Most mock drafts I read have them taking Nick Fairley but I can’t see it. Their two biggest needs are quarterback and cornerback. Can they trade down into the mid teens and look to draft Ryan Mallett? It’s a possibility and I wouldn’t rule out Mallett or Locker at #8 anyway. Would they move up to take Blaine Gabbert? Something else I wouldn’t say is unlikely.

If they stay put I think Julio Jones is a great option considering Kenny Britt’s recent arrest. Let’s not forget that even when Britt was performing last year, the Titans claimed Randy Moss from waivers. Tennessee hasn’t been afraid to draft players with character problems in the past and considering their need in the secondary it really wouldn’t surprise me if Jimmy Smith was the pick at #8. He has top-1o talent and elite potential.

Prediction #3

The Seahawks will trade out of the #25 pick one way or another.

I think a move up the board is still possible and I think they’d be willing to consider using the #57 pick or future draft stock. If you believe the rumors, Seattle was willing to pay a lot to get Carson Palmer including multiple picks in rounds one and two. If there was interest in Kevin Kolb, any deal would probably include more than just the #25 pick. If the Seahawks are serious about addressing the need at quarterback I think there is a possibility they trade up and make a bold move.

Michael Lombardi made some interesting comments on Seattle and Ryan Mallett in a conference call today, referenced here by Eric Williams of the TNT:

“I think they really do like Mallett. They’ve done a lot of work on him. I think Miami’s done a lot of work on him. I think there’s a feeling within the league that Seattle is hoping he makes it down to their pick at No. 25, so that they can get him. I think he does fit what they want to do offensively. He can run a pro-style offense, and they don’t feel the problems off the field are as bad as some people might suspect. So I do feel like that’s one area where they would feel like they’ve solved that problem if they turn that card in.

“It’s interesting, they’re 7-9 and they’re picking 25th. So they’re down there in the draft and they’ve always been very aggressive. So I think if they wanted to go get a guy, they would go get him and move up. But I think until the get the quarterback problem fixed it’s going to be very difficult. They tried to sign Matt Hasselbeck before we locked out. He turned down their last offer, so I think their expectation is they’re not probably going to get him back, so they better address the quarterback.”

Equally I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved down because there’s really very little between the #25 pick and the #35. Unless someone falls down the board I can see why they’d entertain a move south, but the price needs to be right because the Seahawks need quality not just quantity.

Prediction #4

If any of the big names fall it’ll be Von Miller, Nick Fairley or Prince Amukamara.

With Fairley it’s the character concerns. Only today we learn via Adam Schefter that he was late for the combine and some meetings. He rejected the chance to work out in Miami. These are not good signs and while he could easily remain a top-1o pick I don’t think he’s helped himself much if these reports are true. I’ve had him as low as #18 to San Diego at the end of March – something that seems to be appearing with greater regularity these days.

Nobody batted an eye lid when 17-sack Von Miller didn’t declare for the 2010 draft, in fact the scouting reports were critical overall. He was given a third round grade by the draft committee. Twelve months later and the same player is suddenly a top five pick. His meteoric rise is similar to that of Aaron Curry – although Miller’s pass rushing skills at least justifies the hype more than Curry’s ascent. I think there’s a chance Curry fell down the board had he not been taken by the Seahawks and the same may happen with Miller if he gets past Buffalo and Arizona.

I simply don’t rate Amukamara as highly as some other people. If there is a run on quarterbacks early, if Jimmy Smith is the consensus #2 to Patrick Peterson (I think he could be the #1 corner on some boards) and if a lot of defensive lineman go early, Amukamara could fall.

Mock draft thoughts

– I’m not comfortable with the Seahawks pick and I’m starting to wonder if that’s one of the reasons so many people are talking up Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder etc at #25. It’s hard to project anything but defensive lineman in the scenario I have playing out, but are the Seahawks really just going to essentially replace Brandon Mebane and rely on free agency (whenever that happens) to fill other needs? Is that not a sideways step? It’s not a convincing argument and is another reason why I think they could move up the board.

– Andy Dalton is not going to be a first round pick. I highly doubt he’ll be a second round pick. Watch the tape and tell me why he justifies the hype. This is a guy who’s greatest talent is ‘winning’. When that’s the big positive (alongside ‘moxy’) you know you’re in trouble. TCU should win games too – they have a great defense and generally play weaker opposition. My biggest concern with Dalton isn’t average physical qualities, a one read offense or limited wow-factor – it’s the way he dwells too much on mistakes and let’s them develop during a game. I’ve always considered him a R5-6 type guy, the same grade I gave to Colt McCoy last year. I’d guess Dalton will go in the same range as the Texas QB (late third, early fourth) and he should be taken after Ricky Stanzi.

– Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) is again the pick in round two. It caused a few mixed feelings last week. I think the value at the bottom of round two comes at receiver. Orlando Franklin and Marcus Cannon are alternatives, but I still rank Hankerson, Titus Young and Edmund Gates higher. The lack of obvious options at the end of round two may encourage the Seahawks to move up in the first round if there’s one guy they have to have.

John Gruden meets…

April 13, 2011 / Rob Staton

Last year one of the draft’s highlights was John Gruden grilling a number of different prospects with tape. Earl Thomas got the treatment, so did Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy. This year Gruden’s focusing on the quarterbacks and it’s more conversational.

Here are the first three parts of the series (see below) starring Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Andy Dalton. For some reason Gruden turns into Rob Riggle’s character from the film ‘Step Brothers’ during the Jake Locker segment.

***EDIT*** Now includes Gruden’s meeting with Ryan Mallett.

Also don’t forget to check out part 1 and part 2 of Kip Earlywine’s piece on this year’s quarterback class.

Tuesday draft links

April 12, 2011 / Rob Staton

Dan Kelly at Field Gulls conducted an interview with me this week discussing all things Seahawks and the draft. Among the topics – who are the best players Seattle can draft at #25, Mike Pouncey, Rodney Hudson, cornerbacks and a quick take on the 2010 draft class.

Brandon Adams at 17 Power discusses the possibility of the Seahawks trading down in round one: “I’m not interested in piddling around with late-rounders. Premiere talent is what gets the job done in this league, not necessarily multiple picks. Those picks still need to be good, and there’s a reason lower-round players fall – they’re not as good. I firmly believe that one first-round pick will usually impact a team far, far more than two fourth-rounders can. The gain needs to be worth the loss.”

Wes Bunting at the NFP says the Seahawks, Dolphins and Bills have been putting in the hours doing background checks on Ryan Mallett. Bunting also reports information from a scout that one team has Andy Dalton graded above Jake Locker. Two thoughts on this – 1.) Jake Locker will go to Washington in round so it’s irrelevant 2.) The Dalton-love has to be a smoke screen.

Rob Rang and Chad Reuter have updated mock drafts at CBS Sportsline. Rang gives the Seahawks Jimmy Smith and Reuter goes for Jake Locker.

Tom Kowalski passes on a discussion he had with a NFL GM that suggested Jimmy Smith’s stock isn’t falling as much as people think. I maintain that Smith is a top-10 talent who could be a better player than Patrick Peterson over time. Both are significantly better than Prince Amukamara. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tennessee gave Smith a home in the top ten (he’s talented enough) and likewise I won’t be a surprised if Amukamara falls into the late teens.

Ben Volin asks whether the Miami Dolphins should draft Ryan Mallett at #15. I think it’s between Mallett and Pouncey, with the quarterback having the edge due to the importance of the position. Volin: “The Dolphins need a long-term answer at quarterback, and Mallett very likely will be available if they opt to pick at 15 instead of trade down. The Dolphins have not invested a first-round draft pick in a quarterback since Marino retired after the 1999 season, and are still looking for an answer at the position, 12 years later.”

Patriots Football Weekly have compiled an interesting mock draft, courting the opinions of local journalists and beat writers. For some unexplained reason Todd McShay of ESPN makes the Seahawks pick. It’s worth a read with the exception of the Chiefs pick at #21 which has 0% chance of happening.

Walter Cherepinsky updates his mock draft with the Seahawks getting Jimmy Smith and Rodney Hudson in the first two rounds. That would be a nice consolation if quarterback isn’t an option in round one.

Gil Brandt publishes an updated ‘hot-100’ – which is essentially a big board. Brandt doesn’t specify a direct order, instead he splits the players into ‘tiers’ which makes a lot more sense than the weekly ‘Bowers is up to #2, oh no now he’s down to #4‘ manner of Mel Kiper’s board.

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper run through a few draft related topics for ESPN (see below):

Five trade scenarios in round one

April 11, 2011 / Rob Staton

Quarterbacks like Jake Locker could promote the trade market

Projecting trades is like trying to predict this week’s lottery numbers. Really it’s the sliding doors effect – different scenarios provoke different opportunities. It’s hard enough trying to guess which team is targeting a certain player or position without also trying to guess whether they’d make a bold move up the board.

Twitter is infected with live mock drafts at the moment. They start off fairly interesting then patience runs low and numerous bizarre trades kick into action. By the time these seemingly endless and tedious mocks are complete, they’ve become so convoluted with all the numerous trades. So having suitably insulted the world of twitter mocks it’s worth mentioning I’ll be hypocritically participating in one myself shortly with Dan Kelly (Field Gulls) and Brandon Adams (17 Power).

If you can’t beat them, join them. Any opportunity to work with Dan and Brandon is a positive and hopefully this mock won’t be so out there.

I’m flying back from Jamaica tomorrow so I’m not sure how active things will be until late on Wednesday. I wanted to run through some possible trade scenarios that I think are possible, but I’m not going to get into compensation. Really this is just a speculative piece on a subject nobody can seriously project. If we do see a lot of trades in round one this year, I think the quarterback class will play a big part.

Trade scenario #1

What if Cam Newton and Marcell Dareus are the first two picks in the draft?

I still think there’s a good chance Da’Quan Bowers will be taken by Denver at #2, allowing Buffalo to draft Dareus. However, I suspect the Bills may get some genuine interest at the #3 spot regardless. It’s not clear yet whether the prospect of a rookie wage scale will encourage teams to move around more freely, but it could have some impact.

Teams desperate for a quarterback will know there’s a strong possibility Cincinnati will draft Blaine Gabbert at #4. It’ll be interesting to see if the 49ers, Titans, Redskins or Vikings consider making that bold move up the board. Another possibility? Maybe a team like Dallas makes the call in an attempt to get their hands on Patrick Peterson? Teams trading into the top-three is not common and remains unlikely, but there’s a chance that #3 pick could have some value. Buffalo could still draft a top defensive lineman or a tackle like Tyron Smith later on in the top 10-12 picks.

Trade scenario #2

If Dallas are unable to get their hands on Peterson, they may look to move down from #9. Speculation has the Cowboys looking at cornerbacks, offensive tackles and defensive lineman – all logical options. If they single out a tackle as their best bet and prefer the depth later instead of drafting Tyron Smith in the top ten, they could make a jump down the board.

There’s precedent for such a move considering Jerry Jones has done a lot of moving around in round one over recent years. He may see value in a Gabe Carimi or a Nate Solder and feel comfortable moving down the board knowing Anthony Castonzo and Derek Sherrod will also be available as insurance, as well as many 3-4 defensive prospects.

Why would a team move into the top ten? Dallas picks just before another QB needy team in Washington. As with the Bills at #3 we could see movement in this area as teams look to usurp others considered a rival for the top quarterbacks. Minnesota, Miami or even Seattle at #25 could find a trade partner with the Cowboys, although any move by the Seahawks would likely cost the #25, #57 and at least a 2012 second round pick.

Trade scenario #3

Houston are switching to a 3-4 defense under Wade Phillips and need as many early picks as possible. The Texans’ defense remains a liability and in switching to the new scheme they realistically need a nose tackle, defensive end, outside linebacker and further additions to their secondary. A lot of the problems could be solved by better play up front and at least one solid addition to the defensive backs.

Even so, if they can move down and pick up two more early picks it could be tempting. As with the previous two scenarios, Houston select before QB needy teams Minnesota and Miami. If three of the top four quarterbacks are off the board following Washington’s pick at #10, there could be some panic to make sure the fourth QB doesn’t last much longer.

The Texans could target a nose tackle like Phil Taylor later or one of the many OLB prospects. Alternatively a smaller move down the board could still net an Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Prince Amukamaraor Jimmy Smith.

Trade scenario #4

New England have an incredible amount of draft stock which includes the #17, #28 and #33 overall picks. The Patriots could use all three to re-stock their defense and improve a unit that struggled at times to keep up with the Tom Brady show on offense.

Alternatively, will they go for gold? This is a team that has a reputation for trading down not up, but is this the year they buck the trend? A pro-active move by Green Bay netted the Packers Clay Matthews in 2009, sending three picks to New England in the process. Matthews excelled and won a Super Bowl ring this year – the Patriots were left with three mediocre players.

It would be a stunning shock if Bill Belichick packaged the #17 and #28 to move up the board into the top ten. However, the Patriots are not as predictable as some would have you believe. They will do whatever helps them get back to a Super Bowl next year so rule nothing out.

Trade scenario #5

In the first two rounds of the 2010 draft, teams traded directly in front of the Seahawks. In round one Philadelphia jumped from the #24 pick up to #13 in order to draft Brandon Graham. The move may have been initiated by the Broncos who were determined to move down and accumulate picks (they’d already moved from #11 to #14, before moving up from #24 to #22 to select Demaryius Thomas). Philly coughed up two third round choices to get the #13 pick.

In round two it happened again. Both Houston and Cleveland moved directly ahead of Seattle in order to draft running backs (Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty). Clearly they suspected a rush at the position that may have included the Seahawks at #60.

We may see further movement again this year, particularly with the continued focus on the quarterback position. Even if one of the ‘big four’ drops, I don’t expect they’ll land at #25 on a plate. Someone is likely going to test the resolve of New Orleans or Philadelphia and try to get back into round one. Even if the big four are gone, will the fear of the 5th quarterback going at #25 drive a team picking early in round two to move up?

Mark Ingram in Seattle? Surely not?

April 10, 2011 / Rob Staton

Exhibit A: How Mark Ingram plays the game of football

Surely the Seahawks won’t draft a running back in round one?

The team traded for Marshawn Lynch last October, giving a fourth round pick to Buffalo. In twelve days time Lynch will be 25-years-old, still a relatively young player who should be hitting his prime. Best friend Justin Forsett has proven somewhat effective as a change of pace player and good value for a seventh round flier in 2008. The Seahawks also recently re-signed Leon Washington and Chris Henry.

That’s a stable of four running backs. There isn’t anyone you’d take in the first two rounds of a fantasy draft (and maybe later still) but in the modern NFL, the franchise running back appears to be a thing of the past.

Pete Carroll is determined to invoke the zone blocking scheme and is using the Alex Gibbs philosophy (and Tom Cable – one of his disciples) to make it happen. This isn’t a running ideology that lends itself to high priced draft picks with a belief that if the guys up front can execute, the running backs will be productive. You only have to look at the way Mike Shanahan has been able to consistently find yardage with no-name runners to see the possibilities in that system.

Last season the Seahawks’ running game was an absolute disaster zone but not because of a lack of quality at running back. Run blocking was consistently atrocious as the offensive line played musical chairs at every position except center.

Yet despite all those concerns Marshawn Lynch was able to produce a moment of magic that will forever be etched into Seahawks history.

For those reasons and probably a few more we haven’t covered, I don’t think this team will draft a running back at #25 and probably not at #57 either. It is the one position you can consistently find production from outside of the high picks and the Seahawks have too many other needs. To justify a first round pick at running back you need to be a very good team or the player has to have elite potential. Even so, the prospect of Seattle drafting a runner is something I haven’t discussed on the blog at all so for the purpose of due-diligence if nothing else let’s talk about the one reason why it’s 99% unlikely to happen, but not 100% unlikely.

Mark Ingram.

3261 rushing yards at Alabama and 46 total touchdowns. Heisman Trophy and national championship winner. Technically gifted as a runner and blocker who lives and breathes the game and sounds like a Nick Saban-coached player every time he’s asked a football-related question.

Right now not many people want to talk about the positives because he ran a 4.62 at the combine, which automatically means he’s a bad football player (that was sarcasm, by the way).

I understand the concerns about a lack of elite top end speed when he breaks into the open field, but everything else about Ingram’s game makes me believe he has a shot to be a star in the NFL. He is the ultimate competitor who finishes every run like it’s his last. The amazing thing is he plays with that level of intensity from the first snap of the game until the last. He always moves forward, sometimes with several defenders hanging on for the ride.

His vision and field awareness is unmatched from any running back I’ve watched. Any concerns raised about his straight line speed is answered by his lightning quick instincts and ability to execute. As soon as he sees that opening, he’ll put his foot in the ground to make the cut and explode. He’s shifty as you’d expect given his size and makes defenders miss regularly, which is almost as impressive as the number of tackles he’ll break in a single game.

He isn’t going to run like Marshawn Lynch and he doesn’t carry that same amount of power. He doesn’t need to, because he’s much more agile and more of an all-rounder. The icing on the cake is his ball security, which you can tell is an aspect Ingram prides himself on.

I’ve projected him as late as Green Bay at #32 and as early as Detroit at #13. One team in between that range is going to have Mark Ingram at the top of their board and they are going to pull the trigger.

So the question comes down to this – is there no possible scenario where Ingram is clearly the best player available at #25 and the Seahawks end up drafting him?

I want to say it can’t happen but then I remember the 2009 Heisman season, the ankle-breaking run against Arkansas or the big run against South Carolina. Given all of Seattle’s needs elsewhere, given their problems on the offensive line and the stable of backs they currently have – is their just no way Ingram finds a home in the North West?

Pete Carroll wants to run the football and I think he expects to do so without needing a star running back. Even with two first round picks last year, I understand C.J. Spiller was never in contention to be drafted by Seattle. It remains to be seen if that was due to a negative opinion of Spiller or a philosophy on the draft value of the position.

Would it be such an impossibility for the Seahawks to address the offensive line during free agency (whenever it happens) or later in the draft to cater for a back like Ingram much later than Spiller would’ve been drafted? Can they engineer a running game without necessarily bringing in the big-time quarterback to open up the field?

If Ingram has that potential to be special as I suspect, you have to weigh up whether other players at different positions can have the same impact. It’s the ultimate ‘BPA at all costs’ pick if you end up taking him just because he’s top of the board. It may also be worth mentioning how highly I graded Knowshon Moreno – who has a similar all-round ability and ran a 4.55 at his combine. Moreno hasn’t cracked 1000 rushing yards in a season despite costing Denver the 12th overall pick.

Personally I love the idea of Mark Ingram rushing in a Seahawks uniform, yet at the same time I feel disappointment. Seattle has the #25 pick and who knows – maybe a guy with that much ability could be available? If only that quarterback was in place, drafted a couple of years ago and now fully prepared and ready to take over the starting role? If only the Seahawks had hit on a couple of those first round picks on defense? You could focus your energy on a pick like Mark Ingram and a full repair of the running game and feel completely satisfied.

Instead the Seahawks are staring at a recurring need at QB that has gone on for far too long. The defense has one or two young players that can hopefully stick around and be of value, but there’s not enough talent. The offensive line needs further work despite spending a top-ten pick on Russell Okung.

Bringing in Ingram could be the ultimate waste of a first round pick and a first class talent without the other fundamentals in place. At a time when the position’s value is at an all time low, you struggle to justify that pick in any shape or form.

Carroll regularly let 5-star USC recruits battle for playing time at the running back position, but he could afford to knowing the rest of the team was top-heavy with talent. That isn’t the case in his latest gig.

There could be at least one scenario that projects the Seahawks investing their faith in a talent like Mark Ingram, but it would have to be so refined. As I’ve stated from the start, I don’t think it’ll happen and as much as I like Ingram I’m not sure it should happen. Yet as with many other possible storylines emanating from a 7-9 team owning the #25 pick – you just can’t rule it out.

Mark Ingram highlights (2009)

Jake Locker can be a coaches top-ten pick

April 9, 2011 / Rob Staton

Pete Carroll and the Seahawks' staff attended Locker's pro-day

Jake Locker is a coaches player.

It’s an opinion based only on 2010 tape, a year in which the Washington quarterback was scrutinised, criticised and pulled apart. It comes with the territory of returning for your senior year, when evaluators expect to see a finished product and have further basis for nitpicking.

There were some extremely poor performances from Locker (Nebraska part one, UCLA), some very good performances (USC, Oregon State) and the occasional write-off (Stanford).

We’ve all seen the reports – a lack of accuracy, robotic mechanics, inability to improvise combined with obvious physical talent and upside. Nobody is prepared to come forward and say they’d risk a top-15 pick on the guy, a far cry from 12 months ago when he was touted as a likely top-ten prospect.

People scoff and laugh at that suggestion now and claim it was never likely to happen. I often wonder whether we’d be saying the same things about Mark Sanchez or Blaine Gabbert as potential top-five picks had they stayed in college.

With less than three weeks to go I would expect the vast majority of teams in the NFL don’t have a first round grade on Jake Locker. I suspect some won’t have him any higher than a round 3-5 prospect. Some teams won’t see him as the most talented senior prospect coming out of Washington this year.

But some teams will grade him highly and I think it’ll be those that have coaches with authority potentially showing that interest.

Coaches will be able to work directly with Locker to try and tap into the upside. Not every head coach or offensive coordinator will rate him, but those who do will thrive on the opportunity to develop his potential. General managers may be more cautious, concentrating perhaps more on the reasons not to draft the guy and looking at completion percentage and win/loss records. Once the decision to draft a guy has been made, their involvement pretty much ends when it’s over to the coaches. If the person making the decision can work with the prospect directly, I suspect you’d be more willing to take a chance on upside.

The perfect comparison is last year when Tim Tebow went 25th overall to the Denver Broncos, who traded back into round one to draft the Florida quarterback. Nothing about Tebow mechanically or as a passer warranted a first round grade, yet he had an x-factor reputation earned through an illustrious career with the Gators. Some teams won’t have ever entertained the prospect of drafting Tebow that early, others will have given it serious consideration. Josh McDaniels controlled the Broncos draft board during his two year stint as coach and pulled the trigger on his guy.

Locker hasn’t got the brilliant college career and success that Tebow had, but he’s also a much more orthodox quarterback with an over the top, quick release. As with Tebow a lot of teams will be scared off by inaccuracy or mechanical problems, but there will absolutely be others who can’t wait to take the chance on him working out as a NFL starter.

Just like McDaniels in Denver, it’ll probably be a team where the coach has final say.

This is the main reason I continue to mock Locker to Washington at #10. Mike Shanahan has been given control by Dan Snyder to do it his way. Locker is also the perfect scheme fit for the Shanahan offense.

Donovan McNabb wasn’t benched on a whim. This was a veteran quarterback who cost the Redskins considerable draft stock, fresh into a new contract. Benching McNabb was a clear signal that Washington would be drafting a quarterback early.

I doubt Denver/McDaniels were the only suitors interested in Tim Tebow and the same will probably be true of Locker. If I’m right and Washington do end up having serious interest in drafting the Huskies QB 10th overall, the question becomes whether anyone will be willing to trade up to usurp the Redskins?

Will Minnesota, Miami or Jacksonville be surprise candidates? I’m not convinced.

Back in December I wondered whether the Seahawks and Redskins would be draft rivals. A lot has changed since then, with Seattle making the playoffs and ending up with the #25 pick. As discussed yesterday trading into the top ten would likely cost at least the #25, #57 and a 2012 second round pick – a huge price I don’t expect they’ll be willing to pay.

Even so I wouldn’t rule it out and just like the Redskins and Broncos, the Seahawks are a team where a coach holds the final decision.