Author: Rob Staton (Page 40 of 423)

I thought watching the second round was going to be a challenge. A 65-pick gap between #16 and #81 was a long wait. Yet as other teams made their selections, and occasionally reached, I didn’t feel that jealous at all.

The actual value in the late second didn’t feel that different to the area the Seahawks were going to select in round three. So while it would’ve been nice to pick twice in that range, it didn’t actually feel like they were missing out on a shelf of talent.

The team had their patience rewarded when Christian Haynes lasted to the 81st pick. Yesterday, he was a player I wondered whether they might go up and get if he lasted into range. I had him as a fringe second round talent on my board, expected to go between picks #60-75. In the end there was no need to move up. The Seahawks were perfectly placed to get a player few people expected to be available (as was the case with Byron Murphy).

This started a mini-run on interior linemen with Zak Zinter and Dominick Puni taken shortly after. Yet the Seahawks had their pick of the bunch at a vital area of need.

After two days this draft is following the example of the previous two. The Seahawks are intelligently letting each class come to them. Their work in free agency prevents them from having to reach for need, then they select players based on grade. Occasionally, value matches need (as we saw today). This is how good teams draft and the Seahawks are well on the way to a third extremely successful class.

It’s also refreshing to see the focus firmly placed on the trenches. They’ve needed this. I’ll keep mentioning it because it’s important. That Pittsburgh home game in week 17 can’t happen again. Picks like Haynes and Byron Murphy will help rectify the situation.

This is a new era and a fresh start. It’d be a great time to see the Seahawks as a far more talented, dominant, physical team at the line of scrimmage. Make yourselves uncomfortable to play against. Give opponents hell. It’s a cliché that games are won in the trenches — but it’s a cliché I’ve got a lot of time for because it so often proves to carry more than a slither of truth.

Drafting two big, physical, aggressive, talented, athletic linemen with your first two picks is a commitment to the trenches, a new identity and being the kind of team that can be feared again.

It’s also interesting, at least to me, that they’ve continued to focus on individuals with A+ personal and football character. Murphy and Haynes are competitive, mature, focused and intelligent. There are no risks involved here in terms of the people you’re bringing into the building. It’s a continuation of 2022 and 2023 in that regard.

In terms of Haynes’ play — he stood out on tape when I watched UConn play NC State at the start of last season. I studied more after that game, including a blowout defeat to Michigan where Haynes was still giving his all at the start of the fourth quarter in a lost cause. I liked that about him. He was one of the first names I added to my horizontal board and I’ve always had an eye on him.

He finishes blocks. I don’t like passive O-liners who wait for defenders to engage. I want linemen who’ll force the issue, initiate contact and Haynes does that. He’s a brawler who won’t back down and he plays with an old-school flavour. He’s one of the more violent players in the class and he’s very capable of pushing defenders backwards and sending opponents to the turf.

When Brock Huard tweeted before the start of the second round that he wanted to see violence and knock-back ability with every remaining pick — I replied listing four names. Marist Liufau, Malik Mustapha, Brennan Jackson and… Christian Haynes.

He’s a plug-and-play guard who can easily compete to start this year.

So what now? I still have 30 players on my updated horizontal board with day-two grades (click the board to enlarge):

I appreciate the league consensus will differ to my view on certain players — but there’s so much value still available for round four. The Seahawks have the second (#102) and 18th (#118) picks at the start of day three. I wish they had another one, there are so many good players remaining.

I think tight end could be an early focus with the likes of Ja’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Jared Wiley, Cade Stover and Dallin Holker available. This is a great chance to add a legit TE2 who can contribute. Really good options at safety remain with Malik Mustapha, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Dominique Hampton, Jaden Hicks and Kitan Oladapo. T.J. Tampa’s still out there at cornerback and a good crop of interior O-liners remain available.

They have great options.

Do I still think they’ll take a quarterback? I’m less sure and less enthused now. I want to see them take a quarterback with conviction — not do it for the sake of it. Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt lasting into day three makes them less appealing to me, especially given the six-QB rush in round one and no other teams have dabbled since.

I want the Seahawks to take shots at the position but not meaningless shots. So unless they just calculated this perfectly — knowing they could take Haynes at #81 and still get the quarterback they want at #102, I’m inclined to say focus on other positions tomorrow.

If you missed our day-two instant reaction stream, check it out here:

I will post my reaction to Seattle’s pick in this blog post when it happens. I won’t be giving reaction to every selection — only notes — but when the Seahawks have made their pick, we’ll jump on a live stream.

I will also be appearing on the Cigar Thoughts broadcast at about 6:30pm PT.

Use this as an open thread to discuss in the comments and let me know your reaction to every pick. Here’s the horizontal board for day two:

— I’m not surprised Jer’Zhan Newton lasted as long as he did. He was highly disruptive at Illinois but when you’re undersized and don’t have testing numbers — plus you’re recovering from injury — it’s hard to make the call on a player like that in round one.

— When I was at UW in November, I was told Ja’Lynn Polk was the junkyard dog on the team. He fought through so many injuries, was a leader and gave absolutely everything.

— I can’t believe the Titans took T’Vondre Sweat at #38. How can you trust him? That’s a huge, 380lbs gamble.

— The Rams pairing Braden Fiske with Jared Verse is scary. They work so well together on stunts. They pushed each other on and off the field at FSU. We’re talking two very physical, aggressive, all-out defenders. Fiske is an elite athlete too. The Rams used their 2025 second rounder to move up for Fiske. Very expensive.

— Kamari Lassister is a great pick for the Houston Texans. I liked him, thought he had a good field workout at the combine. He doesn’t have the lofty testing numbers but I think he’s a quality addition at #42.

— Max Melton was generating a big buzz in the last few weeks but I thought his tape was maddening and inconsistent. This is the first NFC West pick I’m not a big fan of.

— I’m not surprised the Raiders announced Jackson Powers-Johnson as a guard. There aren’t many teams who want a massive center these days. His angles aren’t great, even though he can recover. Let him play with size and aggression without having to worry about snapping. He was never worthy of being considered at #16, even though he was a trendy prospect for some Seahawks fans online.

— With Seattle’s pick in round two, used in the Leonard Williams trade, the New York Giants selected safety Tyler Nubin. He’s a really good player.

— I don’t know how you can take Maason Smith in round two. He was too upright, sluggish, he has no twitch in his movement. He’s just big and a former top recruit. I thought that was a big reach by the Jaguars at #48.

— There’s been a real trend in round two with the same positions being taken — receivers, defensive tackles and cornerbacks.

— Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier is how you set the tone with toughness and aggression up front on your offensive line. A great pair of picks for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

— Ben Sinnott is a great pick for the Commanders. Extremely talented, major athletic upside, A+ character. I didn’t understand why some people were saying rounds 3-4 when he was a clear round two for me. He led Kansas State’s passing game last season and he’ll be a great outlet for Jayden Daniels.

— Marshawn Kneeland at #56 feels like good value for the Cowboys. He’s a hard charging pass-rusher who needs to develop some different moves — but his elite agility testing in the short shuttle hints at significant upside.

— Javon Bullard as a top-60 talent was one of the easier projections in this draft. Just an enjoyable watch — versatile, physical, he can run up and hit you, I like his coverage. This is an excellent pair of second round picks for Green Bay (they also took Edgerrin Cooper).

#81 — Seattle Seahawks — Christian Haynes (G, Connecticut)
I’m a big fan of this pick. Haynes plays with the aggression and violence you want to see from a guard. He brought it every week for UConn, regardless of the situation or score on an often overmatched team. He has athletic upside, he had a good Senior Bowl and he’ll have a chance to compete to start very quickly. I had a fringe second round grade on him so getting him at #81 is terrific value.

Will the Seahawks wait until #81 to pick again?

I think there’s a chance they will trade up. As we mentioned yesterday, some of John Schneider’s best moves involved trading up on day two — D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed. I think we could see a level of aggression today to find a way to fill the void between #16 and #81.

A year ago the Seahawks received a future third round pick from Denver for moving down 25 spots (#83 to #108). Perhaps they could sacrifice their 2025 third rounder to make a similar move? Could #81 and next year’s third get you into 50’s or 60’s in this draft?

It might be more palatable to do that, given the Seahawks are projected to get a fourth and fifth round comp pick in 2025.

Alternatively, can they dangle a player trade? Increasingly it feels like Dre’Mont Jones is not for long in Seattle. The Seahawks need to create cap space in the coming weeks and parting with Jones is one of the few options they have. Trading him this weekend would save $4.8m. If they trade him after June 1st, they’ll save $11.5m.

For that reason, they might wait until training camp to do a player swap or just get whatever they can to make a decent saving. It could be an option though to dangle him in a trade situation, as part of a package to move up from #81.

Who could they target?

I think it has to be offense and in particular — O-line and quarterback.

If they wanted to move up for a blocker the names that stand out for me are Roger Rosengarten and Christian Haynes.

Someone I trust mentioned a few weeks ago that the UW staff now running Seattle’s offense have a lot of time for Rosengarten. The feeling is he has elite movement skills (he ran a 4.92 forty and a 4.60 short shuttle at 308lbs) and his combination of hand usage and ability to set is high level. The area he struggles is with his anchor — but that can be worked on.

There’s a chance he’ll go earlier than people think and could be viewed by some as a left tackle project. If he lasts into a range where they can go up and get him, they might.

As for Haynes — he’s a rough and ready blocker who played with consistent aggression and intensity even during blow-out losses for Connecticut. He has outstanding football character and his tape is really good. His body type is unusual — top heavy and his physique is quite different to, shall we say, Byron Murphy. But he’s a plug and play blocker.

I wouldn’t rule out trading up for a quarterback. James Palmer’s story about making calls to move up for Michael Penix Jr was interesting. I think they’re minded to add one in a way that isn’t a throwaway pick.

What might complicate things is the first round rush on the position. You’re now left with Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt. They might come off the board earlier than ideal because teams like Las Vegas, the Giants, the Rams and one or two others might similarly want to invest in a QB.

I can imagine Seattle pushing the boat out for Rattler’s potential. I can also see them sticking at #81, or moving up a few spots, to get Pratt. We’ll see. The beauty (and point) of the Sam Howell trade was to have options. They now have options. But I can imagine them having interest in the two quarterbacks remaining on the board.

What if they stay at #81?

There’s a decent group of interior linemen who will likely go in the #65-100 range including Cooper Beebe, Zak Zinter, Christian Haynes, Dominick Puni, Mason McCormick, Beaux Limmer, Sedrick Van Pran, Matt Goncalves and Christian Mahogany. There are some really good options here.

This would be where Pratt comes into play I think.

It’ll also be interesting to see which tight ends remain from the group including Ben Sinnott, J’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson and Jared Wiley.

In both scenarios — trading up or staying put — it’s also about who remains available. Does someone last into a range where you just have to go and get them?

I think there’s been too much focus on linebacker and safety as early round priorities for the Seahawks this off-season. They’ve signed two good linebackers and two safeties. I think they’ll wait until day three at both positions personally — but again, if an opportunity arises to get a difference maker, they may act.

And how they grade players may differ compared to the consensus. I think Dominique Hampton is worthy of the #81 pick, for example.

There’s a chance a really good player (or players) lasts to #81. Look at Lance Zierlein’s day-two mock for example. Payton Wilson is the pick for Seattle, one spot ahead of Brandon Coleman and also just ahead of Ben Sinnott, TJ Tampa, Dadrion-Taylor Demerson, Dominick Puni and Spencer Rattler. If it works out like this, they won’t have to move anywhere. In fact you could make a case for trying to trade up from #102 to get back into the end of round three.

Beyond round three

Looking at the remaining players on my horizontal board — those two fourth rounders at #102 and #118 are going to provide real value. I’m convinced by it.

I would also stress to Seahawks fans — if they don’t add an offensive lineman on day two, don’t stress too much. Such is the nature of the class, there will be options at the start of day three. I keep saying — Michigan’s O-line was prolific for three years. Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan, the two starting guards, are both currently slated to be day three picks. Jarrett Kingston at USC is highly explosive. Isaiah Adams had a good Senior Bowl.

Given they picked at #16 and didn’t acquire a ton of extra stock, this now isn’t going to be a draft where they address every need and have every fan thinking they ticked everything off. The priority instead is going to have to be talent acquisition and value — adding quality.

Horizontal board for day two

With all the speculation in the build-up to the draft focusing on defensive backs, I almost had to watch the announcement of the 16th pick through my fingers.

Byron Murphy and Troy Fautanu were both available. Either was fine by me. Surely they weren’t going to go cornerback? Surely they were going to follow what the Head Coach had been saying about wanting to be physically superior up front?

Then, relief. Roger Goodell announced Byron Murphy’s name. The player who was being tipped to go in the top-10 throughout the last week was instead one of the value picks in the first round.

It’s a fantastic statement of intent by the Seahawks. Re-signing Leonard Williams wasn’t seen as job done. They weren’t settling for that. Now, they can pair Williams with Murphy and let the pair wreak havoc. After years of watching the 49ers and Rams push the Seahawks around in the trenches, this is an opportunity to get a bit of revenge.

Seattle now has ample talent across the D-line. Throw Jarran Reed into the rotation, not to mention newly signed natural nose tackle Johnathan Hankins, and the Seahawks are ready for a fight up front. This is a far better situation than a year ago, where the numbers were so thin going into camp along the interior.

This will massively help the run defense. It’ll keep the linebackers clean. Murphy and Williams are athletic enough to stunt outside and cause real problems. They can move them around the line and create opportunities. It’s intriguing.

Last year at Texas, Murphy had a productive year. He led all defensive tackles with a pass rush grade of 91.5. His overall defensive grade (91.1) was second only to teammate T’Vondre Sweat. He ranked fifth for pressures (45), second for hurries (36) and his pass rush win percentage (19.1%) was way ahead of any player. Mason Graham in second had a percentage of 16.4%.

What I would say is I don’t think he’s necessarily ever going to be able to collect sacks. He hasn’t shown he can get the easy wins yet. When you watch Calijah Kancey at Pittsburgh a year ago, he won so often with burst and an effective swim/rip to get those easy wins. Murphy doesn’t show that on tape — he’s more powerful, disruptive. It might mean he’s never an 8-10 sack-artist at the next level. Grady Jarrett, who he’s often compared to, had a career high of 7.5 sacks in 2019. That might be his kind of peak range. Yet like Garrett, he’ll have every opportunity to play a complete brand of football.

The first round was unpredictable and at times, utterly insane. No restraint was shown in the top-12 as needs were prioritised. It all led to a tremendous opportunity for the teams picking 13th onwards. The Raiders didn’t waste any time snapping up Brock Bowers. The Saints nailed their pick with Taliese Fuaga. The Colts took their top rated defender with the pick of the bunch and then the Seahawks followed suit with Murphy.

It continued with the Rams (Jared Verse), Steelers (Troy Fautanu), Dolphins (Chop Robinson) and Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell). The teams who were willing to be patient were rewarded. Several players taken between #13-22 were top-10 worthy.

Seattle did the right thing not trading down. The drop-off from #22 was significant. It wasn’t worth missing out on Murphy to acquire extra stock. It’s the ideal starting point for the Mike Macdonald era and this latest draft class.

So what now?

It will not sit well with John Schneider to wait until #81. He’s been an active day-two trader in the past (Tyler Lockett, Jarran Reed, DK Metcalf, Darrell Taylor). A year ago, Seattle gained a future third round pick to drop from #83 to #108. Could they use their 2025 third rounder to move up from #81? It might be more palatable than usual given they’re expected to gain compensatory picks in rounds four and five next year.

If there’s an offensive lineman they really like — perhaps Roger Rosengarten, Christian Haynes or Dominick Puni — it might be worth moving up to really feel like you nailed the two lines. Perhaps they could be bold for a quarterback like Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt?

If a few key names stay on the board towards the end of round two, it won’t be a shock if the Seahawks make their move.

We’ll finish by addressing this:

The #Seahawks, #Saints and #Raiders all tried to get into the top 10 for Michael Penix per sources.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 26, 2024

If true, then it speaks to Seattle’s determination to start adding at the position. If they’d pulled it off, it would’ve changed the landscape of the franchise forever. They do need to take some shots — and I wonder if a significant move on day two is coming up.

Here’s my horizontal board, updated with the players drafted removed:

If you missed our day one reaction stream, check it out here:

If you have enjoyed the draft coverage this year why not support us via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Draft Live Blog! I’ll be posting reaction to every pick.

Please do not tip picks in the comments section

#1 Chicago — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
A predictable choice, as he was destined from two years ago to be the top pick this year. A sensational talent with the ability to play both within structure and make the impossible happen. The only question is, do the Bears have the staff to max out his amazing potential?

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
His play elevated way beyond expectations in 2023, at almost a Joe Burrow level. His running ability is exceptional but don’t sleep on his deep accuracy, arm strength and X-factor talent. He’ll need weapons and a left tackle, though.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
I gave him a second round grade. He doesn’t have the upside many have suggested but the technical flaws and decision making was a consistent concern on tape. He had some bad games last year and I thought Spencer Rattler outplayed him in the South Carolina game.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
An excellent player and some of the underwhelming chatter about him during draft season has been bizarre. This is a legit player coming to the NFC West and he will be a serious problem for years to come.

#5 LA Chargers — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I have concern about his height and how he’ll handle leverage. He tested better than I thought he would — he’s athletic and explosive. There were some really good moments on tape, some others where I wondered if his upside was fairly limited to ‘solid pro’.

#6 New York Giants — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
There’s no doubting Nabers’ talent. I thought they might prefer Rome Odunze because of the chatter about Nabers having some slight character concerns. His success will be dictated by New York’s ability to find a quarterback.

#7 Tennessee — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
There was a lot of talk he would go in the top-10. I’m a bit surprised the Titans took him. Is he a legit left tackle? Do they keep him on the right side? Are there any concerns about his weight management? Nevertheless, his feet are fantastic for a man of his size.

#8 Atlanta — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Wow. What a move by the Falcons. They just paid Kirk Cousins a fortune and rather than build around him, they draft his eventual replacement. Any time Cousins struggles, he’ll now look over his shoulder. They’ll also use at least two years of Penix Jr’s rookie deal watching him sit on the bench. However, I respect the investment in the most important position in the sport. He was QB3 on my board and he goes before JJ McCarthy.

#9 Chicago — Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago)
It’s a great pick for Caleb Williams. He’ll love how often he can throw 1v1 to this guy and watch him find a way to get the ball. His ball-tracking and hands are elite, as are his body control. And when it comes to character, he is A+++. The opposite of a diva receiver.

#10 Minnesota (v/NYJ) — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Vikings have traded up one spot in a deal with the Jets. It cost them a fourth and fifth round pick — they get a sixth back from New York. I don’t think McCarthy was worth giving up a ton of picks for. The Vikings did the right thing being patient, assuming they didn’t want Penix Jr instead. McCarthy has great intangible qualities and charisma but his tape was unimpressive.

#11 New York Jets (v/MIN) — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I’m shocked. I felt for sure they would make a ‘here and now’ pick like Brock Bowers. Instead, they draft another tackle. He has the physical tools to be very good but his technique didn’t improve as hoped in 2023. The first 11 picks in the draft are all offensive players.

#12 Denver — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
It’s astonishing how the quarterbacks have flown off the board but this, for me, is a huge reach. Sean Payton clearly believes in him and it was a major need. But I had a third round grade on Nix. The amount of quality still on the board is remarkable.

#13 Las Vegas — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
13 straight offensive players and this is a heck of a pick for the Raiders. An immensely talented, dynamic weapon who will add so much to the Raiders. With several reaches so far, in my opinion, this is tremendous value.

#14 New Orleans — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
An excellent player. He’s aggressive, sets the tone for your team, he’s athletic. I remember the first game I watched and it was a ‘sit up in your seat’ moment. He just consistently demolished the right side of the line, finished every block and he personifies violence on a football field. 14 straight offensive players.

#15 Indianapolis — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
There’s no doubting his technical quality. His plan to get away from blockers is top notch. He sets them up over time, he might be the best ‘counter’ rusher I’ve watched. The concerns are the neck injury and whether he’ll be as effective against more ruthless, aggressive NFL offensive linemen. He’s the first defender off the board. The Seahawks are on the clock.

#16 Seattle — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
It’s a stick and pick situation. I like the pick. Look, it had to be for the trenches. I want to build quality up front on both sides of the ball. I want to scare the rest of the league with our D-line for a change. I love Fautanu and wanted him in Seattle but who knows how the knee is impacting things? Murphy was expected to go earlier than this. Two thumbs up from me.

Here’s my video reaction to the Murphy pick:

#17 Minnesota (v/JAX) — Dallas Turner (EDGE, Alabama)
I thought his tape was underwhelming and that he was overrated throughout the process. The Vikings trade 2025 stock to move up. He has major athletic upside but I was left wanting so much more when I watched him.

#18 Cincinnati — Amarius Mims (T, Georgia)
He is so talented. The upside potential is crazy. If he can stay on the field, there’s no reason why he can’t end up being one of the best tackles in the league. The Bengals love huge offensive linemen.

#19 LA Rams — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
This is a fantastic pick for the Rams. A pure, power edge rusher who can flatten opponents but also get around the edge. He tested better than many expected. He will be a menace in the NFC West. The Rams, like the Seahawks, benefit from the desperation of the QB-needy teams in the top-12.

#20 Pittsburgh — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
Sensational pick for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He fits them wonderfully. Play him at left tackle. He’s a classic AFC North player. He’s aggressive, violent, highly athletic and his character is off the charts. This is amazing value.

#21 Miami — Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
I mocked Chop to the Seahawks at #22. He’s just so quick, so dynamic. This is excellent value again. The Raiders, Colts, Seahawks, Rams, Steelers and Dolphins all benefit from the madness early on. He could be a serious game-changer in the Ravens defensive scheme, which is being transplanted into Miami.

#22 Philadelphia — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
This worked perfectly for the Eagles. They didn’t need to trade up and got the cornerback who best suits the Vic Fangio scheme. Yet again, another team finding value because of the ridiculous start to this draft.

#23 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
They had to do something to help Trevor Lawrence. He’s lost Calvin Ridley and had a regression season in 2023. Thomas Jr is a major downfield threat and his testing at the combine was eye-catching. He looks the part and watching him at the LSU pro-day, he stood out there too.

#24 Detroit (v/DAL) — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Cowboys get a third rounder for moving down five spots, which is good value for them. Arnold had been mocked to the Seahawks by Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. He’s a wonderful personality and great to listen to. I like Arnold as a player but he was inconsistent. He fills a major need for the Lions and he totally fits the personality of the team.

#25 Green Bay — Jordan Morgan (T, Arizona)
A surprise pick but not a surprise position. There was a feeling they liked Rasheed Walker at left tackle but it wasn’t convincing. They have young talent on offense but needed a pass-protector. I’m not sure Morgan’s length will do him any favours if he stays at left tackle.

#26 Tampa Bay — Graham Barton (G/C, Duke)
The Buccs’ biggest need might’ve been interior O-line so having Barton last up to this point is great for them. He was such an accomplished player at left tackle, plus he’s very athletic and plays with an edge. He can settle in at center perfectly in Tampa Bay.

#27 Arizona — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
I like all three picks made by Arizona and LA so far. Robinson is a physical beast and he can wreck plays up front. He will be a problem, especially if they can find complimentary rush threats who can provide quickness. He wins with length and power. He was the Senior Bowl player of the week this year.

#28 Kansas City (v/BUF) — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
The Chiefs made a deal with the Bills to move up from #32, giving up a third rounder. Obviously he has the speed and with Patrick Mahomes’ arm, they’ll hope he can do what Tyreek Hill used to do. However, I thought his tape was inconsistent.

#29 Dallas (v/DET) — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
He’ll be happy to stay close to home. He was the last player with a ‘legit’ first round grade on my board. This is good value. He’s very athletic, has a ton of potential and I think he can play left or right tackle.

#30 Baltimore — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
There was a feeling he had similar coverage qualities to Devon Witherspoon — just without the hitting and physicality. I gave him a second round grade because of his size and his tackling was poor. As a cover-corner though, he has a lot of talent.

#31 San Francisco — Ricky Pearsall (WR, Florida)
I have to say, I like all of the NFC West picks today. This guy can play. He’s an outstanding athlete, he’s going to be a problem. Especially in this offense. Now they can shift Brandon Aiyuk and get a good day-two pick.

#32 Carolina (v/BUF, KC) — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
The Panthers have jumped up one spot. Legette told the media this week he was expecting to be taken at #33 by Carolina. And it actually came to fruition, just a pick earlier.

1. What’s going on?

I’m intrigued that two people, Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler, both randomly mocked cornerback Terrion Arnold to the Seahawks at #16 in their final mocks. Jeremiah explained on the NFL Network he’d heard whispers of the team doing a lot of work on the position.

Either this pair have played an absolute blinder with their sources, or this is one of the more ludicrous things I’ve seen in a while. There’s no middle ground.

Or maybe there is? I like Arnold. His personality is A+ and he’d fit the Seahawks in that regard. If they’re truly going ‘best player available’ and he’s BPA when they pick, OK then. That’s how you qualify it.

There are also people out there who think Quinyon Mitchell is one of the best 2-3 defenders in the draft. If they really are committed to their board, I guess the cornerbacks could be higher than a lot of other players at different positions.

Yet it’d be so utterly frustrating. At least for me. Mike Macdonald’s been saying this week how they want to beat teams up in the trenches. They want to try and copy the hard-nosed style of the AFC North. They’ve gone on about that for years — but they’ve been finesse in the players they’ve selected.

Adding another first round corner, to go with the one taken fifth overall last year and the 20th overall receiver, not to mention the two previously wasted first rounders on Jamal Adams and the second rounder on Dee Eskridge, would be more of the same.

What good is it having talent at corner if a middling team like Pittsburgh can travel the length of the country and run the ball down your throat like they did in week 17 last season? They had Seattle’s pants down, on both sides of the ball.

If they took Arnold at #16, they wouldn’t pick again until #81. There’s a very real chance that their most significant additions to the trenches this year would be George Fant, Laken Tomlinson and Johnathan Hankins. That’s how they would be going about fixing the problem, with the new staff.

It’s unthinkable to me that they would do this. But we’ll see. I think perhaps people have become so focused on trying to work out ‘what Mike Macdonald wants’ and have ended up overthinking things. Arnold at corner, Cooper DeJean trying to be squashed into some type of Kyle Hamilton lite (even though he never even played safety in college).

Here’s the crux of it. This team has been crap in the trenches for years. The new staff might be an antidote of sorts but they need help. The pass rush remains milquetoast, the O-line doesn’t cut the mustard. And by the way, they don’t have a long term answer at quarterback.

Before adding more defensive backs, a year after spending a top-five pick on the unit, maybe the Seahawks can focus on what really matters? In a draft tailor made for the trenches.

I’m guessing these mock predictions are simply going to go the same way as the rampant ‘Jalen Carter at #5’ talk we had last year, in the final stages. Thankfully we only have a few more hours to wait and find out.

2. Can they get the best of both worlds?

If Troy Fautanu has a flagged medical due to his knee, could he last a bit longer than originally expected? Assuming it’s not a major issue, of course.

What if the Seahawks were able to trade down, get the picks they want/need for day two, and still get Fautanu?

That would be a home-run scenario. And frankly, I’m not sure it’s that unrealistic.

3. A few predictions I want to get out there

I still think it’s very likely the Seahawks are going to take a quarterback relatively early. Spencer Rattler in round two. Michael Pratt in round three. I wouldn’t 100% rule out Michael Penix Jr or Bo Nix either. I think John Schneider is determined to start adding at the position.

I think the Seahawks might be higher on two Huskies than most people think. One is offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten. The other is safety Dominique Hampton. If they don’t take an offensive lineman in round one, keep an eye on Rosengarten.

Braden Fiske’s medicals are a thing to consider but his testing, playing style, Senior Bowl and combine workout are interesting. He’s not an ideal two-gapper but I wanted to mention him today.

A quick reminder I’ll be doing a live blog throughout the draft and I’ll be joining PuckSports’ live broadcast at the start of round one — be sure to tune in!

Please check out my recent appearance on VSIN this week, just published to YouTube. The more views, comments and likes the better!

So here we are. The final mock. I’ve written a ton of notes below on the Seahawks. But first, here’s the darn thing in all its glory…

Final 2024 NFL mock draft

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Now we get to see if the Bears finally have a franchise QB.

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
The second best quarterback in the draft.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
The fact the Vikings and Giants appear to want Maye so badly will probably embolden the Patriots to stick and pick.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
They don’t get a haul and decide to stay put and take the best overall player in the draft (talent + character).

#5 LA Chargers — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
Reportedly they’re eager to move down but is anyone busting a gut to move up?

#6 NY Giants — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Malik Nabers has some character question marks and there have been questions about how he’d handle being in a big city. There are no such issues with the sensational Odunze.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I’ve said for weeks — Brian Callahan has brought his dad in to coach up the line. In Cincy, it was all about the weapons. Nabers, Nuk Hopkins and Calvin Ridley would be a dynamite trio.

#8 Atlanta — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
All the talk is that Murphy will be the top defender taken. Raheem Morris knows the benefit of great defensive tackle play.

TRADE #9 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The Colts make a splash and do a deal to jump the Jets for Bowers, supposedly New York’s not-so-secret top-target.

#10 New York Jets — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
The word is if Bowers is gone, they’ll take Fuaga.

#11 Minnesota — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
I’ve never thought he was worth multiple firsts to trade up. The Vikings might just sit tight and see who’s left between McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

TRADE #12 Philadelphia (v/DEN) — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
The expectation is Philly will aggressively pursue Quinyon Mitchell who fits the Vic Fangio defense perfectly. Yet Howie Roseman typically prefers to draft for the trenches.

#13 Las Vegas — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Raiders miss out on the top right tackles and pivot to the top cornerback on their board instead.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
They’re going to draft a tackle, it’s just a question of which one.

#15 Chicago (v/IND) — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
Their biggest need is to find a partner in crime for Montez Sweat.

TRADE #16 Pittsburgh (v/SEA) — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
The Steelers move up four spots to get ahead of Jacksonville to select the second cornerback off the board.

#17 Jacksonville — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
They need more help for Trevor Lawrence.

#18 Cincinnati — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
Although there’s a concern over his knee, Fautanu being the complete package with positional versatility will make him extremely coveted.

#19 LA Rams — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
In the last two off-seasons, the Rams have focused on massive offensive linemen.

#20 Seattle (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
The Seahawks take a player they hope Aden Durde and Mike Macdonald can turn into their version of Micah Parsons.

#21 Miami — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
They were the team who took a shot on Jaelan Phillips, who also had a serious neck injury that almost forced him to retire.

#22 Denver (v/PHI) — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
The Broncos don’t take a quarterback here and wait until round two. Instead, they take an impact pass rusher.

#23 Minnesota (v/HOU) — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
The Vikings keep the 23rd pick and fill a crucial need on defense.

#24 Dallas — Graham Barton (T/G/C, Duke)
They’ll hope he can emulate Zack Martin.

#25 Green Bay — Cooper DeJean (CB, Iowa)
The Packers have needs at corner and safety, so they can try him at either spot.

TRADE #26 Detroit (v/TB) — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
The Lions jump in front of the Cardinals to make sure they get Robinson, who grew up a Lions fan.

#27 Arizona (v/ARI, HOU) — Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
Cornerback is a need and most of the top pass rushers are gone.

TRADE #28 Las Vegas (v/BUF) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
The Raiders bide their time and then trade back into the first round for their quarterback.

#29 Tampa Bay (v/DET) — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
He’s had an exceptional pre-draft process.

#30 Baltimore — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
This would be terrific value for the Ravens.

TRADE #31 Washington (v/SF) — Jordan Morgan (T/G, Arizona)
Adam Peters calls up his old team and does a deal to secure a left tackle.

#32 Kansas City — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
I think he has heavy feet and should go much later but he’s being connected to the Chiefs.

The trades explained

Indianpolis trades #15, #46 and #82 to Chicago for #9 and #75
The Colts aggressively move up to add Brock Bowers for Anthony Richardson, meanwhile the Bears trade back into a range where they can still get a needed pass rusher and fill a hole by acquiring a second round pick.

Philadelphia trades #22 and #50 to Denver for #12
The Eagles use one of their two second round picks to go and get JC Latham — who starts at guard as a rookie and will eventually replace Lane Johnson at right tackle. The Broncos, meanwhile, trade back with the intention of drafting Bo Nix in round two.

Pittsburgh trades #20 and #84 to Seattle for #16
The Seahawks would probably love to add a second rounder but they settle for this, knowing they’re only dropping four spots. The Steelers jump the Jaguars for Quinyon Mitchell. The Seahawks then have two third rounders and two fourth rounders — a collection they could use to trade up if they wanted to.

Detroit trades #29 and a 2025 third rounder to Tampa Bay for #26
The crowd erupts in Detroit as the hometown Lions announce they’ve gone after locally born Darius Robinson, who grew up following the team.

Las Vegas trades #37 and #77 to Buffalo for #28
The Raiders wait on the quarterback position and then make their move for Michael Penix Jr in the late first.

Washington trades #36, #139 and #152 to San Francisco for #31
The Commanders give the 49ers two fifth rounders to move back into round one for left tackle Jordan Morgan.

Notes on the thought process for Seattle

— I still think Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu are stick and pick candidates. However, the reported medical flag for Fautanu’s knee is a real question mark, especially with an uncertain future for Abe Lucas. I don’t think Fuaga makes it to #16. Fautanu might because of the knee. Whether the Seahawks take him will be interesting given the news.

— The league appears to love Byron Murphy. It no longer seems realistic that he will last to #16 — but he is another stick and pick candidate.

— I think there are two wildcard scenarios. One is Michael Penix Jr. Until I see him wearing another team’s cap, I’m going to assume there’s a possibility he’ll reunite with Ryan Grubb. However, after seriously considering putting him in the top-half of round one, I think his frame will dissuade teams from going all-in on him. I sense there will be a lot of ‘like not love’ because of his stature and how he’ll handle NFL punishment, even if his arm is exceptional. Two, if they really are concerned about Lucas’ ability to return, will they prioritise a right tackle in a draft that is loaded at the position? For example, could they look at Amarius Mims?

— It’s also possible the Seahawks look at this as a rare draft. I have 20 legit first rounders on my board. Last year I had nine and the year before 11. So that’s the same number of legit first rounders in 2024 as the 2022 and 2023 drafts combined. This draft presents a unique opportunity to trade down and still, almost certainly, draft a player who carries a first round grade.

— With a rush on offensive players early, I think some very talented defenders could fall. So while originally I figured the Seahawks would do the obvious thing and just draft to improve a questionable O-line — I think based on their last two drafts, a ‘best player available’ approach after trading down could easily steer them to the defense.

— The Seahawks will not be motivated by need. Take last year. We could all see the team needed a defensive tackle badly. If not two. They waited until round four to draft Cam Young. They were so strict with their board/gradings, they left themselves thin at DT going into camp. I’m not saying they’ll definitely wait until round four to draft a guard but it’s not out of the question.

Thoughts on Seattle’s first round pick

It came down to two players.

Fuaga and Murphy were gone and Fautanu would’ve been considered at #20 but the Bengals grabbed him. After moving back four spots, the two players I considered were Chop and Darius Robinson.

Let’s start with two quotes from Mike Macdonald shared by the team this week:

“We’re going to change the looks, move guys around and attack offenses differently.”

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

This tells me two things. Firstly, deception on defense is critical, as is versatility and the ability to keep opponents guessing. Secondly, they want to build from the front and deliver a highly physical team. That points to the trenches.

This is why I think highly aggressive, physical linemen like Fuaga, Fautanu and Murphy will be potential targets if they make it to #16. Macdonald is spelling out how he wants his team to be.

I find it astonishing that people continue to talk about Cooper DeJean as a first round possibility for Seattle. He played cornerback and is an assumed safety convert, so there’s a perception he can be a chess piece. Yet as we’ve noted multiple times, he played 1183 snaps at corner for Iowa, 173 in the slot, 23 in the box and had one snap at deep safety. He hasn’t been a chess piece. He’s been a cornerback. He’s projected to be a versatile weapon, mainly because his stiffness in transition gives people pause to believe he can stay at corner.

The team who had its arse handed to it by an average Pittsburgh team at the end of last season can’t take another defensive back at #16 then wait 65 picks to address another need.

I stuck to the trenches. I focused on two highly versatile players. One who is a brute force destroyer with the size and physicality to deliver violence up front. The other who could be used in the same way Aden Durde experienced with Micah Parsons in Dallas.

Darius Robinson split his snaps in 2023 between over and outside tackle. In the two years prior, he attacked the B-gap. He has played right across the line and it’s very easy to imagine him being used in a multitude of ways to create pressure.

When you watch Chop Robinson’s pass rush snaps against Michigan, you see him lined up in a variety of different positions. When I first watched him the name that jumped to mind was Parsons. It’s a lofty, likely unattainable comparison. He has that upside though. Again, the Seahawks just appointed Durde to be their defensive coordinator from the Cowboys. He’ll know all of the creative ways Dallas rushed Parsons. Imagining Robinson in the same role in Seattle’s defense isn’t difficult.

Here’s two players that can give opponents different looks, different questions to answer pre-snap, and can also disrupt and create havoc with their very different characteristics. Darius has a remarkable 285lbs frame and blows plays up with power, explosion and length. Chop is dynamite off the edge with rare suddenness and bend. Few turn the corner like he can.

Here’s Greg Cosell’s assessment of Darius:

“I really like this kid. He’s got tremendous length and mass. He’s got really strong hands, strong grip, arm extension, he locks-out, he sets the edge. I think he’ll develop more as a pass rusher the more he plays. I really like Darius Robinson a lot. You wouldn’t call a guy that big ‘sudden’ but he’s a very good athlete for his size. Guys that big you can always say they’re a little stiff and tight but they’re just very big. Guys like that are not going to look and move like Chop Robinson. I think he’s the kind of guy you need to keep watching because he’s not going to make those dynamic, spectacular, explosive plays where you go, ‘oh my look at that’ but if you keep watching him, he’s just a really good football player. He may not be the guy early in his career who gets 12 or 13 sacks. Could he develop into that? Possibly. I also think he’s the kind of guy you can line up year one and he’d play meaningful snaps and be good at what he’s asked to do.”

And here’s what he said about Chop:

“Obviously he’s an edge player at his core but when you get to third down you want to move him around, you want to make him a stand up ‘joker’, you want to give him a runway to use that speed and velocity. He’s nowhere near as powerful as Micah Parsons but in a sense you’d want to use him like that where you line him up in different places in those pass rushing situations as opposed to just putting him on the edge with his hand in the ground.”

For what it’s worth, Chop and Parsons had near identical vertical jumps (34.5 vs 34), three-cone times (7.01 vs 6.96) and broad jumps (10-8 vs 10-6). Chop handily beat Parsons in the 10-yard split (1.54 vs 1.59) and short shuttle (4.25 vs 4.40) — that’s despite weighing 254lbs compared to Parsons’ 246lbs. The one seriously freaky thing about Parsons is that he has 11-inch hands (Chop’s are 9 1/8 inches).

Both Robinson’s also fit Seattle’s recent ‘no compromises’ approach to character. Read for yourself, with Tony Pauline’s latest on both published this week (Darius, Chop).

Here’s what Bob McGinn’s scouting sources said about both players:

Darius Robinson

“He’s determined to be great,” said one scout. “That’s what I love about him, and it’s all real. He comes from (bleep).”

“This sucker might have the highest ceiling in the whole draft,” said a second scout. “The build, the talent. You watch him in the SEC, they line him up over tight ends in a 6-technique and he beats the shit out of that tight end. Kind of like Wayne Simmons back in the Brent Jones era. You say, ‘Holy smokes, they might throw him in prison for that.’ He is physical and violent.”

“He is violent. Plays his ass off. He’s gonna be really productive. He can win outside with a 4.97 40 because he can kick your ass. He’s got enough get-off. He’ll win because he’s got 34-inch arms and (big) hands. He’s as good a grab-and-jerk pass rusher as there in the draft.”

Chop Robinson

“Love him,” one scout said. “I see Chop every bit as good as (Dallas) Turner. Sky’s the limit. He’s why coaches get paid. Now you’ve got some work to do with him. You get annoyed because he doesn’t have a (lot) of production this year (four sacks, 15 tackles in 10 starts) but he only played 50% of their defensive snaps. They rotate the hell out of guys.”

“Must be an ambidextrous kid,” a second scout said. “I’m telling you, you don’t find that. He’s got a burst off the edge that’s rare. This is one of the few players you will ever see that can slip and dip and make the L move at the proper angle and depth of the quarterback, and he can do it from the left and right sides. And he can play the run. He’s not a hit-and-shed guy. He’s an escape guy. He runs off blocks. He doesn’t defeat blocks but he’s so quick and athletic he doesn’t have to beat on ‘em. He can escape and pursue down the line. This is what everybody’s looking for.”

“He’s sudden, explosive, plays his ass off,” a third scout said.

The bad forty doesn’t scare me with Darius Robinson. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player look like he does. With that size, that frame, that playing style. I’ve said this a few times — he reminds me of a bigger, less twitchy Jadeveon Clowney. Unlike Clowney, he could easily be the leader in the locker room by year three.

Let’s go back to that Mike Macdonald quote from earlier:

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

That sounds very much like Darius Robinson, just as it also sounds like Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga, Byron Murphy and Jared Verse, in fairness.

With Chop Robinson, the upside potential of someone who can do what he does off the edge is terrifying (for other teams). It’ll create easy wins, to hopefully pair with creative scheming to put him in position to do damage. If you can get a Parsons type, with the creativity of Macdonald guiding him, that’s a difference-making factor. The kind Seattle badly needs.

Under Pete Carroll, I’d have had no confidence that he could take hold of someone like Chop Robinson and create packages and looks to enable him to wreak havoc. With a defensive coordinator who has worked closely with Parsons in Dallas and a Head Coach known for defensive wizardry, Robinson might be more intriguing for Seattle than virtually any other team in the league.

Other players don’t carry the same versatility. Jared Verse is a speed-to-power demon but I don’t see any real positional flexibility or disguise with him. He’ll rush the edge, do his thing. He isn’t really a player you move around. Laiatu Latu can line up inside but how keen are NFL teams going to be to do that with his neck history? Jer’Zhan Newton is an interior pass-rush specialist only.

The two Robinson’s, for me, feel like very realistic targets for Seattle. I had to pick one and went with the upside of Chop and the potential to try and emulate what the Cowboys do with Parsons.

Why I doubt my own pick

This is the best offensive tackle draft in years. John Schneider has often bemoaned the lack of quality tackles coming into the league. They have a question mark with Abe Lucas. The offensive line is the biggest priority for improvement, if we assume the Seahawks cannot find a legit, young, franchise quarterback in round one.

If they stick and pick Fautanu at #16 after months of saying they’d take him if he’s there, I’ll kick myself with this mock. The knee has just made me reconsider at the last moment.

It won’t be a surprise if they take the best offensive lineman in round one, still go with a quarterback in the rounds 2-4 range but target a pass rusher like Jonah Elliss, possibly, in round three. Perhaps if they can’t trade down, or simply are fortunate enough to have Fuaga or Fautanu (knee permitting) fall to them, that will solve the problem.

I also think the Seahawks might be determined to add more stock than a mere third rounder if they trade down, especially if they have a different quarterback in mind (eg Spencer Rattler).

Seahawks seven-round projection

#20 (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
#81 — Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State)
#83 — Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
#102 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#118 — Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
#179 — Ryan Flournoy (WR, SE Missouri State)
#192 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
#235 — George Holani (RB, Boise State)

Final thoughts

Over the last 24 hours I’ve come to realise how utterly stupid ‘final mocks’ are. I recall a year ago Peter King agonising over his, writing consistently about his keenness to get as much right as possible.

Mock drafts are at their best when they pitch theories, ideas and possibilities between January and April without any pressure to be ‘accurate’. Trying to guess what will actually happen tomorrow is futile. The people who ‘hit’ typically are just very lucky. We have no real idea what’s going happen. The reporters out there might get the odd nugget or two — but not enough to create a fantastic mock.

Let’s just embrace the brilliant unknown of the draft. 32 GM’s, many under the influence of owners, will provide three days of entertainment from Thursday. I hope you enjoy it.

I also hope you’ll stick with SDB throughout. Here’s what the plan is:

— As the draft kicks off, I will be on PuckSports for approximately 20 minutes giving my thoughts.

— I will be live-blogging my reaction to each first round pick. When the Seahawks make their selection, I will record a quick video which will be uploaded to my Youtube channel.

— At the end of each of the three days, I will be doing a live stream giving my reaction to Seattle’s picks.

— I have agreed to appear on the Cigar Thoughts draft show on day two, with a time to be confirmed.

If you have enjoyed the draft coverage this year why not support us via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.