Author: Rob Staton (Page 41 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

My final 2024 NFL mock draft

So here we are. The final mock. I’ve written a ton of notes below on the Seahawks. But first, here’s the darn thing in all its glory…

Final 2024 NFL mock draft

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Now we get to see if the Bears finally have a franchise QB.

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
The second best quarterback in the draft.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
The fact the Vikings and Giants appear to want Maye so badly will probably embolden the Patriots to stick and pick.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
They don’t get a haul and decide to stay put and take the best overall player in the draft (talent + character).

#5 LA Chargers — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
Reportedly they’re eager to move down but is anyone busting a gut to move up?

#6 NY Giants — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Malik Nabers has some character question marks and there have been questions about how he’d handle being in a big city. There are no such issues with the sensational Odunze.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I’ve said for weeks — Brian Callahan has brought his dad in to coach up the line. In Cincy, it was all about the weapons. Nabers, Nuk Hopkins and Calvin Ridley would be a dynamite trio.

#8 Atlanta — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
All the talk is that Murphy will be the top defender taken. Raheem Morris knows the benefit of great defensive tackle play.

TRADE #9 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The Colts make a splash and do a deal to jump the Jets for Bowers, supposedly New York’s not-so-secret top-target.

#10 New York Jets — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
The word is if Bowers is gone, they’ll take Fuaga.

#11 Minnesota — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
I’ve never thought he was worth multiple firsts to trade up. The Vikings might just sit tight and see who’s left between McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

TRADE #12 Philadelphia (v/DEN) — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
The expectation is Philly will aggressively pursue Quinyon Mitchell who fits the Vic Fangio defense perfectly. Yet Howie Roseman typically prefers to draft for the trenches.

#13 Las Vegas — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Raiders miss out on the top right tackles and pivot to the top cornerback on their board instead.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
They’re going to draft a tackle, it’s just a question of which one.

#15 Chicago (v/IND) — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
Their biggest need is to find a partner in crime for Montez Sweat.

TRADE #16 Pittsburgh (v/SEA) — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
The Steelers move up four spots to get ahead of Jacksonville to select the second cornerback off the board.

#17 Jacksonville — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
They need more help for Trevor Lawrence.

#18 Cincinnati — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
Although there’s a concern over his knee, Fautanu being the complete package with positional versatility will make him extremely coveted.

#19 LA Rams — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
In the last two off-seasons, the Rams have focused on massive offensive linemen.

#20 Seattle (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
The Seahawks take a player they hope Aden Durde and Mike Macdonald can turn into their version of Micah Parsons.

#21 Miami — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
They were the team who took a shot on Jaelan Phillips, who also had a serious neck injury that almost forced him to retire.

#22 Denver (v/PHI) — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
The Broncos don’t take a quarterback here and wait until round two. Instead, they take an impact pass rusher.

#23 Minnesota (v/HOU) — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
The Vikings keep the 23rd pick and fill a crucial need on defense.

#24 Dallas — Graham Barton (T/G/C, Duke)
They’ll hope he can emulate Zack Martin.

#25 Green Bay — Cooper DeJean (CB, Iowa)
The Packers have needs at corner and safety, so they can try him at either spot.

TRADE #26 Detroit (v/TB) — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
The Lions jump in front of the Cardinals to make sure they get Robinson, who grew up a Lions fan.

#27 Arizona (v/ARI, HOU) — Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
Cornerback is a need and most of the top pass rushers are gone.

TRADE #28 Las Vegas (v/BUF) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
The Raiders bide their time and then trade back into the first round for their quarterback.

#29 Tampa Bay (v/DET) — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
He’s had an exceptional pre-draft process.

#30 Baltimore — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
This would be terrific value for the Ravens.

TRADE #31 Washington (v/SF) — Jordan Morgan (T/G, Arizona)
Adam Peters calls up his old team and does a deal to secure a left tackle.

#32 Kansas City — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
I think he has heavy feet and should go much later but he’s being connected to the Chiefs.

The trades explained

Indianpolis trades #15, #46 and #82 to Chicago for #9 and #75
The Colts aggressively move up to add Brock Bowers for Anthony Richardson, meanwhile the Bears trade back into a range where they can still get a needed pass rusher and fill a hole by acquiring a second round pick.

Philadelphia trades #22 and #50 to Denver for #12
The Eagles use one of their two second round picks to go and get JC Latham — who starts at guard as a rookie and will eventually replace Lane Johnson at right tackle. The Broncos, meanwhile, trade back with the intention of drafting Bo Nix in round two.

Pittsburgh trades #20 and #84 to Seattle for #16
The Seahawks would probably love to add a second rounder but they settle for this, knowing they’re only dropping four spots. The Steelers jump the Jaguars for Quinyon Mitchell. The Seahawks then have two third rounders and two fourth rounders — a collection they could use to trade up if they wanted to.

Detroit trades #29 and a 2025 third rounder to Tampa Bay for #26
The crowd erupts in Detroit as the hometown Lions announce they’ve gone after locally born Darius Robinson, who grew up following the team.

Las Vegas trades #37 and #77 to Buffalo for #28
The Raiders wait on the quarterback position and then make their move for Michael Penix Jr in the late first.

Washington trades #36, #139 and #152 to San Francisco for #31
The Commanders give the 49ers two fifth rounders to move back into round one for left tackle Jordan Morgan.

Notes on the thought process for Seattle

— I still think Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu are stick and pick candidates. However, the reported medical flag for Fautanu’s knee is a real question mark, especially with an uncertain future for Abe Lucas. I don’t think Fuaga makes it to #16. Fautanu might because of the knee. Whether the Seahawks take him will be interesting given the news.

— The league appears to love Byron Murphy. It no longer seems realistic that he will last to #16 — but he is another stick and pick candidate.

— I think there are two wildcard scenarios. One is Michael Penix Jr. Until I see him wearing another team’s cap, I’m going to assume there’s a possibility he’ll reunite with Ryan Grubb. However, after seriously considering putting him in the top-half of round one, I think his frame will dissuade teams from going all-in on him. I sense there will be a lot of ‘like not love’ because of his stature and how he’ll handle NFL punishment, even if his arm is exceptional. Two, if they really are concerned about Lucas’ ability to return, will they prioritise a right tackle in a draft that is loaded at the position? For example, could they look at Amarius Mims?

— It’s also possible the Seahawks look at this as a rare draft. I have 20 legit first rounders on my board. Last year I had nine and the year before 11. So that’s the same number of legit first rounders in 2024 as the 2022 and 2023 drafts combined. This draft presents a unique opportunity to trade down and still, almost certainly, draft a player who carries a first round grade.

— With a rush on offensive players early, I think some very talented defenders could fall. So while originally I figured the Seahawks would do the obvious thing and just draft to improve a questionable O-line — I think based on their last two drafts, a ‘best player available’ approach after trading down could easily steer them to the defense.

— The Seahawks will not be motivated by need. Take last year. We could all see the team needed a defensive tackle badly. If not two. They waited until round four to draft Cam Young. They were so strict with their board/gradings, they left themselves thin at DT going into camp. I’m not saying they’ll definitely wait until round four to draft a guard but it’s not out of the question.

Thoughts on Seattle’s first round pick

It came down to two players.

Fuaga and Murphy were gone and Fautanu would’ve been considered at #20 but the Bengals grabbed him. After moving back four spots, the two players I considered were Chop and Darius Robinson.

Let’s start with two quotes from Mike Macdonald shared by the team this week:

“We’re going to change the looks, move guys around and attack offenses differently.”

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

This tells me two things. Firstly, deception on defense is critical, as is versatility and the ability to keep opponents guessing. Secondly, they want to build from the front and deliver a highly physical team. That points to the trenches.

This is why I think highly aggressive, physical linemen like Fuaga, Fautanu and Murphy will be potential targets if they make it to #16. Macdonald is spelling out how he wants his team to be.

I find it astonishing that people continue to talk about Cooper DeJean as a first round possibility for Seattle. He played cornerback and is an assumed safety convert, so there’s a perception he can be a chess piece. Yet as we’ve noted multiple times, he played 1183 snaps at corner for Iowa, 173 in the slot, 23 in the box and had one snap at deep safety. He hasn’t been a chess piece. He’s been a cornerback. He’s projected to be a versatile weapon, mainly because his stiffness in transition gives people pause to believe he can stay at corner.

The team who had its arse handed to it by an average Pittsburgh team at the end of last season can’t take another defensive back at #16 then wait 65 picks to address another need.

I stuck to the trenches. I focused on two highly versatile players. One who is a brute force destroyer with the size and physicality to deliver violence up front. The other who could be used in the same way Aden Durde experienced with Micah Parsons in Dallas.

Darius Robinson split his snaps in 2023 between over and outside tackle. In the two years prior, he attacked the B-gap. He has played right across the line and it’s very easy to imagine him being used in a multitude of ways to create pressure.

When you watch Chop Robinson’s pass rush snaps against Michigan, you see him lined up in a variety of different positions. When I first watched him the name that jumped to mind was Parsons. It’s a lofty, likely unattainable comparison. He has that upside though. Again, the Seahawks just appointed Durde to be their defensive coordinator from the Cowboys. He’ll know all of the creative ways Dallas rushed Parsons. Imagining Robinson in the same role in Seattle’s defense isn’t difficult.

Here’s two players that can give opponents different looks, different questions to answer pre-snap, and can also disrupt and create havoc with their very different characteristics. Darius has a remarkable 285lbs frame and blows plays up with power, explosion and length. Chop is dynamite off the edge with rare suddenness and bend. Few turn the corner like he can.

Here’s Greg Cosell’s assessment of Darius:

“I really like this kid. He’s got tremendous length and mass. He’s got really strong hands, strong grip, arm extension, he locks-out, he sets the edge. I think he’ll develop more as a pass rusher the more he plays. I really like Darius Robinson a lot. You wouldn’t call a guy that big ‘sudden’ but he’s a very good athlete for his size. Guys that big you can always say they’re a little stiff and tight but they’re just very big. Guys like that are not going to look and move like Chop Robinson. I think he’s the kind of guy you need to keep watching because he’s not going to make those dynamic, spectacular, explosive plays where you go, ‘oh my look at that’ but if you keep watching him, he’s just a really good football player. He may not be the guy early in his career who gets 12 or 13 sacks. Could he develop into that? Possibly. I also think he’s the kind of guy you can line up year one and he’d play meaningful snaps and be good at what he’s asked to do.”

And here’s what he said about Chop:

“Obviously he’s an edge player at his core but when you get to third down you want to move him around, you want to make him a stand up ‘joker’, you want to give him a runway to use that speed and velocity. He’s nowhere near as powerful as Micah Parsons but in a sense you’d want to use him like that where you line him up in different places in those pass rushing situations as opposed to just putting him on the edge with his hand in the ground.”

For what it’s worth, Chop and Parsons had near identical vertical jumps (34.5 vs 34), three-cone times (7.01 vs 6.96) and broad jumps (10-8 vs 10-6). Chop handily beat Parsons in the 10-yard split (1.54 vs 1.59) and short shuttle (4.25 vs 4.40) — that’s despite weighing 254lbs compared to Parsons’ 246lbs. The one seriously freaky thing about Parsons is that he has 11-inch hands (Chop’s are 9 1/8 inches).

Both Robinson’s also fit Seattle’s recent ‘no compromises’ approach to character. Read for yourself, with Tony Pauline’s latest on both published this week (Darius, Chop).

Here’s what Bob McGinn’s scouting sources said about both players:

Darius Robinson

“He’s determined to be great,” said one scout. “That’s what I love about him, and it’s all real. He comes from (bleep).”

“This sucker might have the highest ceiling in the whole draft,” said a second scout. “The build, the talent. You watch him in the SEC, they line him up over tight ends in a 6-technique and he beats the shit out of that tight end. Kind of like Wayne Simmons back in the Brent Jones era. You say, ‘Holy smokes, they might throw him in prison for that.’ He is physical and violent.”

“He is violent. Plays his ass off. He’s gonna be really productive. He can win outside with a 4.97 40 because he can kick your ass. He’s got enough get-off. He’ll win because he’s got 34-inch arms and (big) hands. He’s as good a grab-and-jerk pass rusher as there in the draft.”

Chop Robinson

“Love him,” one scout said. “I see Chop every bit as good as (Dallas) Turner. Sky’s the limit. He’s why coaches get paid. Now you’ve got some work to do with him. You get annoyed because he doesn’t have a (lot) of production this year (four sacks, 15 tackles in 10 starts) but he only played 50% of their defensive snaps. They rotate the hell out of guys.”

“Must be an ambidextrous kid,” a second scout said. “I’m telling you, you don’t find that. He’s got a burst off the edge that’s rare. This is one of the few players you will ever see that can slip and dip and make the L move at the proper angle and depth of the quarterback, and he can do it from the left and right sides. And he can play the run. He’s not a hit-and-shed guy. He’s an escape guy. He runs off blocks. He doesn’t defeat blocks but he’s so quick and athletic he doesn’t have to beat on ‘em. He can escape and pursue down the line. This is what everybody’s looking for.”

“He’s sudden, explosive, plays his ass off,” a third scout said.

The bad forty doesn’t scare me with Darius Robinson. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player look like he does. With that size, that frame, that playing style. I’ve said this a few times — he reminds me of a bigger, less twitchy Jadeveon Clowney. Unlike Clowney, he could easily be the leader in the locker room by year three.

Let’s go back to that Mike Macdonald quote from earlier:

“We believe in knocking the crap out of the guy in front of you, and then some.”

That sounds very much like Darius Robinson, just as it also sounds like Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga, Byron Murphy and Jared Verse, in fairness.

With Chop Robinson, the upside potential of someone who can do what he does off the edge is terrifying (for other teams). It’ll create easy wins, to hopefully pair with creative scheming to put him in position to do damage. If you can get a Parsons type, with the creativity of Macdonald guiding him, that’s a difference-making factor. The kind Seattle badly needs.

Under Pete Carroll, I’d have had no confidence that he could take hold of someone like Chop Robinson and create packages and looks to enable him to wreak havoc. With a defensive coordinator who has worked closely with Parsons in Dallas and a Head Coach known for defensive wizardry, Robinson might be more intriguing for Seattle than virtually any other team in the league.

Other players don’t carry the same versatility. Jared Verse is a speed-to-power demon but I don’t see any real positional flexibility or disguise with him. He’ll rush the edge, do his thing. He isn’t really a player you move around. Laiatu Latu can line up inside but how keen are NFL teams going to be to do that with his neck history? Jer’Zhan Newton is an interior pass-rush specialist only.

The two Robinson’s, for me, feel like very realistic targets for Seattle. I had to pick one and went with the upside of Chop and the potential to try and emulate what the Cowboys do with Parsons.

Why I doubt my own pick

This is the best offensive tackle draft in years. John Schneider has often bemoaned the lack of quality tackles coming into the league. They have a question mark with Abe Lucas. The offensive line is the biggest priority for improvement, if we assume the Seahawks cannot find a legit, young, franchise quarterback in round one.

If they stick and pick Fautanu at #16 after months of saying they’d take him if he’s there, I’ll kick myself with this mock. The knee has just made me reconsider at the last moment.

It won’t be a surprise if they take the best offensive lineman in round one, still go with a quarterback in the rounds 2-4 range but target a pass rusher like Jonah Elliss, possibly, in round three. Perhaps if they can’t trade down, or simply are fortunate enough to have Fuaga or Fautanu (knee permitting) fall to them, that will solve the problem.

I also think the Seahawks might be determined to add more stock than a mere third rounder if they trade down, especially if they have a different quarterback in mind (eg Spencer Rattler).

Seahawks seven-round projection

#20 (v/PIT) — Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
#81 — Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State)
#83 — Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
#102 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#118 — Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
#179 — Ryan Flournoy (WR, SE Missouri State)
#192 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
#235 — George Holani (RB, Boise State)

Final thoughts

Over the last 24 hours I’ve come to realise how utterly stupid ‘final mocks’ are. I recall a year ago Peter King agonising over his, writing consistently about his keenness to get as much right as possible.

Mock drafts are at their best when they pitch theories, ideas and possibilities between January and April without any pressure to be ‘accurate’. Trying to guess what will actually happen tomorrow is futile. The people who ‘hit’ typically are just very lucky. We have no real idea what’s going happen. The reporters out there might get the odd nugget or two — but not enough to create a fantastic mock.

Let’s just embrace the brilliant unknown of the draft. 32 GM’s, many under the influence of owners, will provide three days of entertainment from Thursday. I hope you enjoy it.

I also hope you’ll stick with SDB throughout. Here’s what the plan is:

— As the draft kicks off, I will be on PuckSports for approximately 20 minutes giving my thoughts.

— I will be live-blogging my reaction to each first round pick. When the Seahawks make their selection, I will record a quick video which will be uploaded to my Youtube channel.

— At the end of each of the three days, I will be doing a live stream giving my reaction to Seattle’s picks.

— I have agreed to appear on the Cigar Thoughts draft show on day two, with a time to be confirmed.

If you have enjoyed the draft coverage this year why not support us via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

Final 2024 horizontal board, thoughts on the draft class and what the Seahawks should do

This is how I’ve graded the class, based on tape study starting in May last year. 288 players in total are included and it’s been a long process to get to this point. I’ve not taken players off the board that I don’t think will be drafted by the Seahawks — so this isn’t a team specific board. It’s an overall grading board.

If I were running a team, I’d probably reduce this down to about 100-120 names. Especially in the day three range, there are just a lot of players I wouldn’t want to draft.

Here’s the board and I’ll run through some thoughts after (click to enlarge):

Names in red have current injury concerns or a known injury history

Strengths in the draft

It’s pretty clear in round one that the two key positional strengths are receiver/pass catcher and offensive tackle. The trio of Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, along with Brock Bowers, are a fantastic group. It would’ve been unthinkable in previous years to say a modest prediction for the number of first round offensive tackles in a single class would be seven — yet we could realistically see more this year.

I also think there are other, far less discussed plus points about this class. It’s a much better safety class than people recognise. I’ve got 10 players graded in rounds 2/3. Several of the 10 could last into round four. So while there aren’t any top-20 players at the position, you have a fantastic opportunity to add a good safety at the start of day three in this draft.

This is the most explosive offensive line class since we started measuring traits in 2016. It particularly shows up at guard and center. Seahawks fans might be fretting about what the team will do with the interior O-line — but I think they can get a talented, high-upside player in the middle rounds as a worst case scenario.

At cornerback, there are also players who will be available in rounds 3-5 who offer upside potential.

Weaknesses in the draft

It’s extremely difficult to build an argument for taking a linebacker early. The talent just isn’t there and I think some players are being pumped up to fill the void. Although a lot of Seahawks fans want the team to draft for the position early for depth/competition, I think they’re better off waiting until later on and taking a chance on traits/upside or players they believe can be a schematic fit. For me, the process at the position is all about seeing whether Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson can establish as starters beyond 2024 — rather than using a high pick on a position where the options just aren’t there. This isn’t the draft to find a solution for the long term at a position teams increasingly are not prioritising.

We did hear the Seahawks talk about ‘green dot’ players during free agency — the individuals responsible for calling the defensive plays on the field. Per Bob McGinn’s scouting sources, here are some names to monitor in that regard:

In interviews with several scouts, the consensus was that six of the top 10 linebackers are sharp enough to be “green dots” immediately or fairly early in their NFL careers. The list includes (Payton) Wilson, Cedric Gray, Jeremiah Trotter, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Tommy Eichenberg and JD Bertrand. Junior Colson was a maybe. “Wilson’s a double green dot,” said one evaluator. “He’s Luke Kuechly’ish. He’s a heck of a player. But is he going to be able to stay healthy?”

Tight end is a difficult one to work out. There are a collection of players who tested very well in the short shuttle and 10-yard split. The top TE’s in the league generally perform well in those tests. There’s ‘diamond in the rough potential’ with a number of players — but it’s possible we only see two tight ends drafted in the first two rounds.

Edge rusher is also a position where I think the pockets of talent are short and sharp. You’ll have a group of two, three or four players bunched together in tiers who will possibly be drafted in the same range as soon as one player starts the run. Then you might have to wait another round or a round and a half for the next run to start.

Injury concerns could impact the class

Tony Pauline told us on Friday that Troy Fautanu had a knee issue flagged in medical checks. This was the first I’d heard about this — and then Albert Breer reported the same thing yesterday. Here’s what he said:

Washington OT Troy Fautanu’s knee was flagged. That one was described to me as the sort of issue that shouldn’t be a problem in the short term, but could wind up impacting his longevity in the pros (though his high football character is a factor in making teams feel like he’ll do all he can to take care of it, and give himself the best chance).

Firstly, in terms of the Seahawks, you have to wonder what it means for how they view him. They’re already dealing with an offensive lineman with knee issues in Abe Lucas. This news concerns me.

Secondly, it’s hard to know how teams will view this information. The problem for Fautanu is with this being a loaded offensive tackle draft, teams may simply pick someone without the knee question mark.

Braden Fiske has an extensive injury history and Tony also told us his sources have said it’s not a good picture in terms of the medicals. He has the talent to go in the 25-35 range — but the injury could keep him on the board. It’s the same for Payton Wilson.

There are other things to keep an eye on. Junior Colson did no testing pre-draft due to injury. Teams have no physical data for him and is he an injury concern? Zak Zinter continues to recover from a broken leg. Matt Goncalves, the incredibly talented tackle who will move inside to guard in the NFL, has been dogged by injuries in college. Erick All the tight end has faced the same problem. Jer’Zhan Newton didn’t do any testing pre-draft. Cooper DeJean is still recovering from a serious injury. Edefuan Ulofoshio has a significant injury history. Kiran Amegadjie missed most of last season. Cornerbacks Kool-aid McKinstry and Ennis Rakestraw Jr have some injury question marks.

Finally, two big name players. Laiatu Latu nearly retired due to a neck injury. There’s some concern about his ability to play in a three-point stance as a consequence, rather than in space where he can keep his neck/head out of the play. His tackling style has also become rugby-esque and there’s a thought that he might suffer for the hip-drop-tackle rule change. One team took a chance on Jaelen Phillips, who had a similar problem, so someone will take a chance on Latu. But it’s likely to be a mixed bag of opinions in the league.

Then there’s Michael Penix Jr. For me, the injury history isn’t the big concern. It’s his frame. He won’t have the same benefits he had at Washington. His inability to deal with an excellent defensive gameplan by Michigan in the National Championship didn’t bother me as much as the sight of him limping off the field, beaten up, at the end of the game. There’s no doubt he has remarkable arm talent. Some teams will wonder, though, about how his body will take the regular hits that are coming in the NFL.

Players I’m lower than the consensus on

At no point have I watched Drake Maye and felt like I was watching someone with the ability to become a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. His footwork needs fixing, he misses too many easy throws and his decision making is highly erratic at times. He lacks the supreme physical upside to balance out the flaws. The magical moments often felt a bit flukey, rather than inspired.

I don’t think he’s a bad prospect. I have him in round two, essentially as a top-45 player. I rate him in the same way I rated Jordan Love. He was given time and patience to develop and that’s what Maye needs.

I also understand why a team would take him as early as say third overall. When you need a quarterback, you have to take shots. If you put him on a team with a sensational offensive mind and let him sit for a year or two, that would be an attractive proposition. I’d have a hard time trading a massive haul for him though — and neither the Commanders or the Patriots have that sensational offensive mind leading their teams.

If I were New England, I’d take whatever Minnesota’s offering to get up to #3 and if they’re determined to draft a quarterback — I’d take Michael Penix Jr at #11 instead, after collecting a haul of picks.

I appreciate JJ McCarthy’s intangible qualities and why teams have fallen for him. His tape, though, left me hugely underwhelmed — both in terms of physical upside and quality. He isn’t special as a thrower. His arm is OK. He won’t be playing for a loaded Michigan team next year, overwhelming all opponents. I wouldn’t trade a bunch of picks for him and when I do my final mock tomorrow — I might reflect on a potentially colder than expected market for a non-spectacular player. Right now I’m inclined to back my own assessment — that he isn’t someone worth trading up for.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu has technical flaws that concern me and I wonder about his ability to translate to a NFL blocking scheme quickly. There’s no doubting his physical upside though — I just don’t see him as a top-20 talent in this class. I don’t think Jackson Powers-Johnson is a first round pick. I think Kingsley Suamataia has heavy feet and Patrick Paul’s habit of extending his arms out before contact is a frustrating technical flaw. Both players will go earlier than I have them graded.

I ranked Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga and Amarius Mims ahead of Joe Alt and Dallas Turner is my DE4.

I also have Bo Nix graded in round three. I was really disappointed with his showing at the Senior Bowl and the combine and wanted to see him throw with confidence and let it rip. Instead, he looked tentative and more limited than I expected. There are some characteristics that are appealing but I wouldn’t want to put the kind of investment in him where you’re obliged to start him and try to make him the focal point of your team.

Players I’m higher on than the consensus

Chop Robinson has Micah Parsons upside and for that reason, I’m buying into bringing him onto a team and challenging your defensive staff to make him great in a versatile role. If his knee clears, I believe Troy Fautanu is the best offensive lineman available. Likewise for Braden Fiske — if he passes his medicals, I think he’s a top-40 talent after the best combine I’ve ever seen — to go with a relentless motor and aggressive playing style.

I have Malik Mustapha and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson graded in round two, with Dominique Hampton and Kitan Oladapo in round three. Ben Sinnott is my TE2 and I have him as a top-50 player. I think Spencer Rattler has shown more translatable pro qualities than Maye and Nix. I think Penix Jr is QB3.

Linebacker Nathaniel Watson is too impactful to grade lower than a late round three for me. Defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo is in the same range due to his outstanding athletic traits. Beaux Limmer is the most explosive offensive lineman to enter the league in years. I was really impressed during tape study of receivers Jacob Cowing and Ryan Flournoy.

Using the horizontal board to project the Seahawks

First and foremost, the burning question I think for this draft is what is the situation with Abe Lucas? If, internally, they don’t think he can come back — that creates a huge problem at right tackle. With this being a particularly excellent first round at right tackle, it could tempt the Seahawks to stick and pick for the position, or initiate a modest trade down where they can still address the situation.

I still believe if Taliese Fuaga or Troy Fautanu are available at #16, there’s a strong chance the Seahawks won’t move down. Fautanu’s knee situation might change things. Both players could fit in at right tackle easily. Both can also play inside if needed. They are ideal picks based on talent, need, playing style and scheme fit.

Before the Fautanu injury news I thought they’d both be off the board before #16. Now, we’ll see.

If neither player is an option and they still want to take a right tackle, keep an eye on Amarius Mims. He is unbelievably talented. Most players who are 340lbs are sluggish and play with heavy feet, or they struggle to manage their weight. Mims has barely any body fat and looks like he was created in an offensive line factory.

A year ago the Seahawks had no problem drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the fact he missed almost the entire 2022 college season. They thought he had so much talent, it was a value opportunity. Had he played, with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, he might’ve been a top-10 pick. It’s similar with Mims. It’s well advertised he only had eight starts in college (more a review of how talented Georgia’s O-line has been than any reflection on him) but if he’d played a full two-seasons, he could’ve also been a top-10 pick.

The Seahawks will almost certainly entertain offers to trade down. Partly, I think that’ll be because they’ll have their eye on specific players in round two they want to get to (such as, potentially, a quarterback). There’s also a value opportunity here. There are so many offensive players expected to go early, due to the options and team needs. There’s a very realistic chance that a group of 4-5 defenders — who in other years would’ve been top-15 picks — are going to still be on the board between picks #20-25.

If Seattle was able to make a deal with Philadelphia at #22, for example, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that at least one of the top-four edge rushers will be available. The other name I continue to think they might show interest in is Darius Robinson. Alternatively, Graham Barton could also be available in this range.

I have 17 interior offensive linemen I think deserve to go in rounds 3-4. I anticipate some of them will last into round five, if not later. Therefore, I’m not too concerned about Seattle’s ability to add talent at guard.

This is how the Ravens have operated for years — and people seem content to mimic their approach. They just let a veteran right guard and right tackle walk and they’ll likely be replaced by former third and fourth round picks with size and aggression. John Simpson, who started at left guard before joining the Jets, was a former fourth round pick. The big difference is they used a first rounder on Tyler Linderbaum at center — but I think the Seahawks would’ve strongly considered taking him in 2022 given the opportunity.

Having watched Michigan’s O-line dominate for the last three years, I wouldn’t be totally against drafting Trevor Keegan and Zak Zinter, putting them with Olu Oluwatimi again and just rolling with what worked for the Wolverines. It’s not flashy — but they beat everyone up in college. A lot of people think Keegan and Zinter will both be day three picks.

I think the board will produce enough value to wait on the safety position until rounds 3/4. I think they’re better off adding depth at linebacker later on with style preferences, due to the limited options at the position. I think they can wait until rounds 3-5 to add a defensive tackle. I would draft a receiver at some point but I think the depth is sufficiently excellent that I’m prepared to wait for someone like Ryan Flournoy.

What does an ideal Seahawks draft look like?

This is only my opinion and you may disagree. But I think an ideal draft is one that makes the Seahawks significantly tougher up front, on both sides of the ball, and finds a way to add a talented young quarterback.

I’m not interested in more high picks at safety, cornerback and receiver while this team is having its arse handed to it in the trenches by an average Pittsburgh team, led by Mason Rudolph, at Lumen Field.

It’s absolutely imperative they become physically better up front. That doesn’t mean they have to spend their top pick on a beast of an O-liner just because it’s the most pressing need. As I’ve explained already, there are good linemen set to be available later on. However, I do want to see within the totality of this class a really clear plan to get better in the trenches.

I also think the Sam Howell trade, which was only a swap of picks at the end of the day, doesn’t preclude the Seahawks from drafting a quarterback. It’s no different than the Seahawks signing two linebackers, two safeties, Laken Tomlinson, George Fant, Johnathan Hankins or Pharoah Brown. They’ve filled holes to make sure they can do whatever they want in this draft, not be dictated by need. They couldn’t go into the draft with one quarterback on the roster.

Plus, Howell’s cap-hit is $985,000 this year and $1.1m next year. Compare that to the veteran backups signed this off-season. Joe Flacco is costing the Colts a $5m cap hit. Carson Wentz is costing the Chiefs $2.7m. The swap of picks, to get such a cheap backup contract, is justifiable.

Howell was a draft hedge. If there’s someone in this class that they really like at quarterback, they can still take him. And they should. It’s time to take shots. That could be Michael Penix Jr in round one. It could be Spencer Rattler in round two. Or it could be Michael Pratt in rounds 3/4. I wouldn’t even rule out Bo Nix. But I think they will draft a quarterback and I think it’s critical that they start to. They need to look around for the long-term solution, not wait for the holy grail to fall into their laps one year.

Again, John Schneider was the Director of Football Operations in Green Bay when the Packers selected Brian Brohm in round two — despite having Brett Favre and recent first rounder Aaron Rodgers on the roster. That’s what you call taking shots to find the answer — and the Packers continued that tradition when they drafted Jordan Love despite having Rodgers in his prime.

I believe the Seahawks are now going to adopt that mentality and we’ll see one of these young QB’s drafted by Seattle.

To recap — I think an ideal draft includes at least one pick on each side of the lines, ideally two. It includes a quarterback. I would also look to draft at safety in round four, I’d want to add a tight end at some point and a receiver. If you can move down to acquire extra stock, a later round pick at linebacker would be desirable. I would be open to trading Dre’Mont Jones during the draft, saving $4.8m in cap space, to get extra stock if needs be.

My prediction for #16 with 48 hours to go

Troy Fautanu (knee permitting) and Taliese Fuaga could tempt the Seahawks to stick at #16. Byron Murphy likewise, with Michael Penix Jr and Amarius Mims potential wildcards. Otherwise, the Seahawks will find a trade partner. Once they move down, it brings the edge rushers into play — and I think my particular focus will be on Chop and Darius Robinson. They are two players with extremely different characteristics but they have difference making, unique qualities. Graham Barton could also be considered — but more mid-rounders for the interior O-line could be the order of the day. They will draft a quarterback at some point.

Planning ahead

Tomorrow I will publish my final mock draft to be sent for Huddle Report scoring. I’ve written it, so we’ll see how many changes I make between now and tomorrow. Health depending, we will also do a live stream tomorrow at approximately 3pm PT. Then on Thursday, we’ll have a live blog operating throughout the first round. I’ll be appearing on PuckSports’ draft special for 20-25 minutes at the start of round one too. At the end of each of the three days of the draft, we will do an instant reaction live stream. I’ll also be posting my own instant reaction to the YouTube channel when each pick comes in. So be sure to stick with SDB throughout.

If you want to support the blog as we come to the end of another draft cycle, you can do so via Patreon. All help is really appreciated.

Curtis Allen: The State of the Seahawks’ salary cap in 2024 and 2025

This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen…

With the main period of Free Agency winding down and the draft looming, it’s a good time to talk about where the Seahawks stand in relation to the salary cap.  There are decisions the team will have to make soon that will have an impact next season.

How they play this will be interesting.  It will give us insight into how close to truly competing the management thinks they are.

Where the Seahawks Currently Stand

They currently are just under the cap but the signing of Laken Tomlinson, adding their draft class and practice squad players will require the Seahawks to make some moves to create more cap room:

The Seahawks need to find about $11.5 million in cap space between now and the start of the season.

For reference, I added the most viable cap gain options underneath and added the 2024 cap benefits (including the Top-51 effect) and the impact on the 2025 salary cap.

As you see, the three Restricted Free Agents have very little guaranteed money on their numbers for 2024.  However, their cap numbers will likely pale in comparison to their output.  Darrell Taylor may not be anyone’s idea of a top Defensive End at this stage of his career, but 21 sacks in 3 seasons is easy to like for a cap hit of $3.1 million.  Same for Mike Jackson.  He has started at corner and at times been their best outside player last year.  A bet of $3.1 million to see what he can do in Macdonald’s defense is not hard to justify at all.

The simplest options for this year are the restructures of Smith and Metcalf.  They pick up almost the exact amount the team requires to operate and there is no impact on the current roster, as it is simply a bookkeeping move.

However, look at the 2025 impact.  If the team made those two moves, it adds that exact amount to the 2025 cap.  While that is workable, spending next year’s money might put limitations on their decision-making process come the next offseason.

The same limitations Seahawks are experiencing this year because of 2023’s offseason moves.

At this time last year, the team was in nearly the exact same cap shape as they are now:  tight against the cap and needing remedies to create more space.

They chose to restructure Tyler Lockett in May, Quandre Diggs in July and Jamal Adams in August (as well as extending Uchenna Nwosu in July).  Those three restructures gained them about $18.4 million in cap room but also pushed significant money into future seasons. As an aside, this was ‘just to pay the bills’ money.  The team needed to pay the Giants significant trade compensation to get them to eat about $10 million of Leonard Williams’ contract when they traded for him last fall.

About $12 million of that 2023 money is now dead 2024 money due to the Seahawks releasing Diggs and Adams.  Tyler Lockett agreed to a salary reduction with incentives going forward but the $5.69 million of room they gained last year is guaranteed, so there is no getting around that cap hit.

You see the irony.  That $12 million of dead cap for Adams and Diggs is the exact amount they are short in cap this season.  Therefore, when we talk about the options to gain cap this year and restructuring Metcalf and Smith is raised as the easiest option, just remember – the team is not freeing themselves of that obligation, they are just kicking it down the road.

Which is fine.  But it does force another ‘tough decisions and piling up more dead cap money’ situation in 2025.

Why?  The team is not flush with cap next year at the outset.

A Very Early Cap Outlook for 2025

At this moment in time, Over the Cap has the Seahawks with cap room of just under $3 million for 2025.  That is not good.  However, we can project things to get an idea of what it will truly look like before any major moves are made.  This will provide clarity to see the big picture of what the Seahawks may want to do – or avoid doing – the rest of the way this offseason.

From the top:

-OTC’s $2.99 million starting number is based on a $260 million cap in 2025.  They have yet to consider the large 2024 increase up to $255.4 million.  Revenues are going to provide robust growth, and a typical increase would put them at about $275 million, so the Seahawks get $15 million more breathing room.

-And then that breathing room gets eaten immediately.  The beginning number does not include the draft class the Seahawks will add in a few days.

-Four later-round players have been playing significant snaps for the Seahawks and will get a salary raise in the fourth year of their contracts courtesy of Player Performance Escalators baked into the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

-That leaves the team over the cap by $3.3 million with 40 players, and when you add another 11 players at minimum salaries to get to the top 51, they are now over by $13.8 million.

-Add in your standard draft class, practice squad and injury piggy bank and the Seahawks will need to create almost $28 million of cap room in the 2025 offseason to stay cap compliant.  That’s before they go shopping in the market.

You see the dilemma here.  If the Seahawks push cap money into 2025 just to pay the bills in 2024, there is no soft landing they would like to have waiting for them the following offseason.  They will just have to cut deeper into the roster, collect more dead money and once again have their future plans restricted a bit.

Have a look at what the most obvious options are for the Seahawks:

Smith and Lockett have roster bonuses that will require quick action by the team.

Dre Jones seems an obvious target at this point after an underwhelming 2023 season.

Those three moves pick up $58.5 million of cap room and give the team $30.6 million free and clear to work with.  But that means the Seahawks will need to have another big dead cap money season in 2025, absorbing $34 million in charges.

However, if the team restructures Smith & Metcalf this offseason, that borrows almost $12 million from their free cap (and would add another $5.8 million to the dead cap pile if they cut Smith, making it almost $40 million), leaving them with just under $19 million to spend.

Another option to gain 2025 room is to extend Smith and pick up about $19 million.  To do that though, you are talking about locking him up for his age 36-37-38 years with good money to get cap space this year.  If he produces another season like 2023, that will not be a viable option.

So, What Does This Mean for 2024?

The obvious answer is the Seahawks need to determine what to do with Dre Jones this offseason.  They will need to know sooner rather than later how he fits into this defense and if he will be able to provide the value they are paying on the cap for him, as well as determine if there is a trade market for him.

If I had to guess, the Seahawks will restructure D.K. Metcalf shortly after the draft to pay for their draft class, like they did with Tyler Lockett last year.  This move is something that is not hard to get behind.  Metcalf is a player you want on the roster beyond 2025 and in that light, this is just moving money around.  Restructuring a young, star-level player with several productive years in front of him is far less punitive than an older veteran who you are wondering if he will be with the team next year.

Speaking of Tyler Lockett, cutting him (or him retiring) next year leaves a hole on the roster.  Yes, the Seahawks would go into 2025 with Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Noah Fant on the roster as great targets.

If there is a Wide Receiver that falls in the draft this year (conceivable, given how deep a class it is), the 2025 cap and roster construction could easily sway them to make that pick, given the value they would receive.

Dre Jones?  With his cap cost, there is a good argument to be made for cutting or trading him after investing a pick in his spot on the defensive line this year.  Starting over there and pairing a draft pick with Leonard Williams and all the edges they have collected is very persuasive and could positively impact the rest of the defense.

Then we get back to Geno Smith.  $25 million in cap savings next year is a juicy target that is easy to bank right now.  But what of the actual season of 2025?  The Seahawks would go into the offseason with only Sam Howell on the roster.  Is that enough?  Do the Seahawks desire to plan for the position in 2025 before they see how Smith and Howell perform in the new offense?

And will that all take a backseat to the team having a quarterback they rate available in this year’s draft?

One way or another, the Seahawks will need to make some very big choices.  If they truly do feel Geno Smith and/or Sam Howell can be effective enough to take a Macdonald-coached team deep into the playoffs, a bold draft that selects talent that could help them quickly, perhaps followed up with a ‘damn the torpedoes’ move or two this fall or next spring would be in order – such as a bold trade for say Micah Parsons or Tee Higgins at the expense of 2025 draft capital.  A two-year run at a championship with all chips thrown to the center of the table might be a sight to behold.

And if they do not believe they are ready to make some noise next year, would drafting a quarterback this year become more a necessity than just an option to consider?  It is possible that a shrewd trade down followed by a trading up for say Michael Penix Jr or Spencer Rattler could be viewed in 2025 as the Move of the Offseason, positioning the Seahawks with several young talents who can form the core of a team that will compete for years.

Which will it be?

Hard to say.  And that is why John Schneider makes the big bucks.

One thing we do know – the draft picks and moves they make on the salary cap this offseason may very well signal how close he thinks this team is to competing.

Monday draft notes — quarterbacks, trades and more on Darius Robinson

Adam Schefter on the Seahawks and quarterbacks

Schefter produced an article today with a number of short reports, none of which were particularly revealing, prior to the start of the draft.

If we’re being honest, Schefter is a reporter who is willing to work on a quid pro quo basis. That’s why I found it fascinating that he had a whole section in his article titled, ‘Will the Seahawks draft a QB?’ before saying very little other than, ‘well the Seahawks do rate Sam Howell’.

As soon as I read this it just felt like a fairly obvious plant to throw other teams off the scent. This isn’t a topic that’s been discussed enough in the national media to warrant a specific section in this article. Have any of the big national reporters dedicated any time, really, to wondering whether the Seahawks would go quarterback in the draft? Neither is this a big NFL story with widespread interest. It’s a really random thing to include in this article.

We know over the years the Seahawks are a team very willing to lean on the media. Schefter, let’s not forget, was the person to break the news that Geno Smith wouldn’t be cut before his contract guaranteed this year — before adding that his salary provided sufficient value to create a trade market. That equally felt like a very deliberate favour for the team to get the message out there that they were open for business — at a time when the GM and Head Coach were going out of their way to be non-committal to Smith.

Frankly, if this article was an attempt to throw cold water on the possibility of the Seahawks drafting a quarterback, I’m probably more convinced than ever now that they’d really like to. Otherwise what benefit is there to having the info out there that they possibly won’t draft one?

I’ve sensed in recent days a bit of a buzz growing about the Seahawks and quarterbacks. Rick Spielman mocked Michael Pratt to Seattle in a mock draft. Peter Schrager said the Raiders and Seahawks are the two teams being most connected to Michael Penix Jr per his sources. Brady Henderson shared an article about Spencer Rattler. Now we have Schefter writing this. I think among the people talking to teams, there’s a view that the Seahawks are in the quarterback hunt.

Nothing’s guaranteed of course. That’s why they added Howell in the first place — if they miss out, they’ll still have a young QB on the books that they like. I think it’s a hedge. I think they are determined to take shots, starting with Howell and continuing into the draft this week.

That could mean Penix Jr in round one. It could be Rattler in round two. It could be Pratt in rounds 3/4.

My guess is Schefter’s piece is designed to be a misdirection. Probably because the Seahawks have got their eye firmly on one or two of these signal callers and are keen on drafting them. And they’d rather the world think that they’re sorted at the position.

Why Spencer Rattler could be on Seattle’s radar

The draft’s about projection. What can a player become? Rather than what he’s currently shown to be so far.

We spent an entire college football season talking about Rattler, so a lot of this will be rehashed for many of you. Very little about his situation at South Carolina was conducive with aiding his draft stock. A shocking offensive line, very little in the way of weapons apart from Xavier Legette. A team that was often overmatched. Yet Rattler, somehow, still played to a reasonable standard.

Rattler was sacked 3.7 times a game — eighth most in college football — and faced constant pressure (185 total pressures, third most). Despite this, he regularly delivered pro-level passes with defenders breathing down his neck. He also only had 11 turnover-worthy plays, the same number as Drake Maye — the 79th most in college football. It speaks to how he transformed his game from a player who often forced ill-judged passes to someone who was willing to play within structure, while retaining a playmaking quality.

What is he capable of? I’d recommend watching his performance against Tennessee from 2022. Note the high-level of accuracy and dynamism on his throws. This performance speaks to why he was once considered a top-five pick:

I’ve long thought Rattler is a bit of a mini-Mahomes. I appreciate it’s a dangerous comparison to make — but he shares similar traits just in a very different body type. Now, actually going on and turning traits into an effective starting role is the big jump every young quarterback has to make. There’s no doubt though that Rattler has the arm, the ability to extend plays and create, to throw downfield with punch and make plays on the run. These are all things John Schneider seems to like.

If you can acquire his upside potential in round two, you could really reap the rewards of taking a shot on him. Just as the Seahawks did when they took a shot on Russell Wilson. We know Schneider likes a big arm and mobility, a quarterback who can attack every blade of grass and play with creativity. Rattler does all of these things.

I don’t think my mock scenario from Sunday — where the Seahawks trade down and acquire the extra stock required to land Rattler on day two — is far-fetched.

Who would they target if they trade down?

This is still the biggest head-scratcher for me. It’s hard to feel that excited if you drop into the 20’s or 30’s. Once you get into a range where the best pass rushers (Verse, Robinson, Latu, Turner, Murphy) and the best remaining O-liners (Mims, Barton) are gone — that’s when things get a bit dicey.

It could be, though, that Seattle is taking a quantity over quality approach with this deep class. I think that makes sense to a degree — but you’d have to make sure you hit on some players. There’s nothing worse than the guy at #16 having a thriving career and you pick 11 times like you did in 2017 and come out with very little.

I wonder if trying to emulate their pick ranges in 2017, though, could be a plan of sorts. They had two second rounders (#35 & #58) and three third rounders after trading down.

The 16th pick could be a range where the Commanders look to package their two early second rounders (#36 & #40) to move up for a left tackle. Daniel Jeremiah did a conference call last week where he talked about this:

“I’m not loving the fact of sitting at 36 and 40. I think they’re a prime candidate to come back up and try and scoop up one of these tackles. Like if you’ve got Amarius Mims, who’s floating around there in the teens, they have plenty of ammunition to be aggressive and go get a starting offensive tackle.

“That to me is something I would keep an eye on. I don’t see them standing pat and sticking in there at 36 and 40. I think you’ll see them try and make a move and address the offensive line.”

From there, the Seahawks could look to further trade down from #40 to get an extra third rounder. It would leave them with a board that shows two second rounders, two thirds and two fourths.

They’d be ideally positioned to draft someone like Rattler in round two if that happens. I just struggle to work out who they’d take at #36. By that point, the better O-line options are gone. I don’t think they’d go linebacker or safety at #36. Are you looking at players like Marshawn Kneeland or Braden Fiske? The 36th pick feels like a really awkward range to select in this year.

Why I still wouldn’t rule out Darius Robinson

For some teams, he could be the apple of their eye. I’m talking about legit, ‘this is the person we want’ among all options, priority target. The Seahawks could be one of those teams.

There are a few things working in Robinson’s favour. He has unique size, length and power. For all the people comparing Robinson to L.J. Collier because they didn’t run fast — they are nothing like each other. Look at their body types. Robinson has the frame of a terminator. He might lack Jadeveon Clowney’s twitch but as I’ve mentioned a few times, that was the player I thought of when watching him. Ungainly, a little bit out of control, but a regular menacing disruptor who blows up plays.

There’s a reason why Kirby Smart, the Georgia Head Coach, singled him out before their game against Missouri.

Robinson was player of the week at the Senior Bowl. Everyone who’s played with him speaks to his leadership qualities. When I interviewed Mekhi Wingo a few weeks ago, he said Robinson taught him how to be a pro. At Missouri, Robinson would arrange extra gym sessions with his team mates. He led from the front. His nickname in college was ‘Mr. Mizzou’.

Jim Nagy told us recently that he was so bought into the Senior Bowl event, he handed out résumés to teams during meetings. We’re talking about an individual who could become the vocal leader of the team within a couple of years.

In Seattle, it’s quite easy to picture Robinson lined up next to Leonard Williams with the pair collapsing one side of the line, affording opportunities for the edge rushers. Mike Macdonald has talked about having versatile players and Robinson has more or less done it all — playing across the line in various positions.

Then there are these quotes from Bob McGinn’s anonymous scouting sources:

“He’s determined to be great,” said one scout. “That’s what I love about him, and it’s all real. He comes from (bleep).”

“This sucker might have the highest ceiling in the whole draft,” said a second scout. “The build, the talent. You watch him in the SEC, they line him up over tight ends in a 6-technique and he beats the shit out of that tight end. Kind of like Wayne Simmons back in the Brent Jones era. You say, ‘Holy smokes, they might throw him in prison for that.’ He is physical and violent.”

“He’s an edge rusher all day,” a third scout said. “He is violent. Plays his ass off. He’s gonna be really productive. He can win outside with a 4.97 40 because he can kick your ass. He’s got enough get-off. He’ll win because he’s got 34-inch arms and (big) hands. He’s as good a grab-and-jerk pass rusher as there in the draft.”

A year ago the Seahawks took Devon Witherspoon fifth overall. He did no testing pre-draft. Witherspoon was not expected to run a fast time, despite weighing as little as he did (181lbs). He was an older player (turns 24 this year).

Robinson has similar characteristics — outstanding football character and competitiveness, a violent playing style, experienced, non-ideal testing numbers but finds a way to impact games anyway, has made himself a great player who developed over time in college.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Seattle coveted Robinson. Trade down, get into a range where you can take him, set up your board to get the other players you need. Whether you agree with it or not, it chimes with moves they’ve made in the past.

There will be lots of articles (multiple per day) on the blog over the next few days. Be sure to scroll down so you don’t miss anything. And if you’d like to support the work we do in the final week of this draft season, you can do via our Patreon (click here).

Penultimate mock draft — two rounds, Seahawks trade down, draft a quarterback on day two

Here we go then, the second to last mock draft. I’ll do my final projection on Wednesday for Huddle Report scoring. It’s a two-round projection, followed by a Seahawks seven-rounder. There’s a big explainer after the mock.

Round one

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
They could call the pick now.

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
Drake Maye is too erratic to go above Daniels.

#3 New England — Drake Maye -(QB, North Carolina)
I still think they could trade out of this spot, with Eliot Wolf targeting an offensive lineman with the first pick instead of a quarterback. Ownership seems to be pulling the strings, though.

#4 Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
The Cardinals sense an opportunity to get an elite player and don’t trade down.

TRADE #5 NY Jets (v/LAC) — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
The Jets are in extreme win-now mode. They go and get another dynamic weapon, to try and create an explosive offense.

#6 NY Giants — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
They don’t take J.J. McCarthy and stick to the board, with Bowers among the very best players in the draft.

#7 Minnesota (v/TEN) — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Vikings bide their time, balk at the asking price from Arizona and then strike a deal with the Titans for McCarthy — giving Tennessee #11 and #23 and saving future stock.

TRADE #8 Jacksonville (v/ATL) — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
The Jaguars make a huge move to go up and get a #1 target for Trevor Lawrence, seeing that as the key to rejuvenating his career.

#9 Chicago — Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
A year ago, Darnell Wright was the top O-liner on my horizontal board and the Bears took him at #10. This year, Fautanu’s top of my board. Maybe Ryan Poles sees it the same way again?

#10 LA Chargers (v/NYJ) — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
The Chargers trade down and take Fuaga, who just feels like an ideal right tackle fit for Jim Harbaugh.

#11 Tennessee (v/MIN) — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
The Titans trade down a few spots and get the same player many think they’ll take at #7. Alt is a tad overrated for me.

TRADE #12 LA Rams (v/DEN) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Here’s the big shock. The Rams, who are loaded with picks, jump the Raiders (and potentially the Seahawks) to get Penix Jr. They see an heir apparent to Matt Stafford, with similar arm strength.

#13 Las Vegas — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Raiders pivot to cornerback after missing out on Penix Jr and their preferred offensive tackles.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I think Fashanu’s a second-half of round one type but the Saints have a big need.

#15 Indianapolis — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
The Colts address a critical need with an extremely talented cornerback.

TRADE #16 Dallas (v/SEA) — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
The Seahawks, in this mock, are keen to trade down with Fautanu and Fuaga gone. They’re also eyeing a specific player/position in round two. The Cowboys move up for Murphy, after Micah Parsons’ recent off-season plea to add an impact interior defender.

#17 Atlanta (v/JAX) — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
I thought Turner’s tape was very underwhelming. Great athlete but he needs work. The Falcons trade down and still get their guy.

#18 Cincinnati — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
Latham can start at guard this year and then play right tackle in the future. Cincinnati loves big linemen.

#19 Denver (v/LAR) — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
The Broncos collect picks by trading down, then secure a needed edge rusher. It’s great value, too. Sean Payton loves to draft for the trenches.

#20 Pittsburgh — Amarius Mims (T, Georgia)
He has too much talent to drop out of the top-20.

#21 Miami — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
The injury concerns might temper his stock but the Dolphins were willing to take a chance on Jaelan Phillips.

#22 Philadelphia — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
A classic edge rusher for the Vic Fangio scheme. Howie Roseman just goes with value and Robinson has special qualities.

#23 Tennessee (v/MIN, HOU) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
The Titans keep adding weapons after acquiring this pick from the Vikings.

#24 Seahawks (v/DAL) — Graham Barton (T/G/C, Duke)
I think John Schneider is fully aware that they need to fix the O-line. A great defender with exceptional value could turn his head, though.

#25 Green Bay — Cooper DeJean (CB, Iowa)
It’s easy to imagine DeJean in Green Bay.

#26 Tampa Bay — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
He plays like Devon Witherspoon without the big hits.

#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
They could move up for a pass rusher or might just settle on the cornerbacks here.

#28 Buffalo — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
After moving Stefon Diggs, they take a player who would mesh with Josh Allen and just be where the quarterback needs him to be on every route.

#29 Detroit — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
This feels inevitable.

#30 Baltimore — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
The Ravens would likely run to the podium to fill this need.

#31 San Francisco — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
They love to draft for the D-line in round one.

TRADE #32 Washington (v/KC) — Jordan Morgan (T, Arizona)
The Commanders sneak back into round one to address their need up front.

Round two

#33 Carolina — Adonai Mitchell (WR, Texas)
#34 New England — Mike Sanristil (CB, Michigan)
#35 Arizona — Marshawn Kneeland (DE, Western Kentucky)
#36 Kansas City (v/WAS) — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#37 LA Chargers — Ricky Pearsall (WR, Florida)
#38 Tennessee — Braden Fiske (DT, Florida State)
#39 Carolina (v/NYG) — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
#40 Washington (v/CHI) — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
#42 Houston (v/MIN) — T.J. Tampa (CB, Iowa State)
#43 Atlanta — Max Melton (CB, Rutgers)
#44 Las Vegas — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#46 Indianapolis — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#48 Jacksonville — Andru Phillips (CB, Kentucky)
#49 Cincinnati — Ben Sinnott (TE, Kansas State)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Javon Bullard (S, Georgia)
#51 Pittsburgh — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#52 Denver (v/LAR) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
#53 Philadelphia — J’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#54 Cleveland — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#55 Miami — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
#56 Seahawks (v/DAL) — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
#57 Tampa Bay — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#58 Green Bay — Roger Rosengarten (T, Washington)
#59 Houston — Tyler Nubin (S, Minnesota)
#60 Buffalo — Cole Bishop (S, Utah)
#61 Detroit — Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, Washington)
#62 Baltimore — Junior Colson (LB, Michigan)
#63 San Francisco — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#64 Kansas City — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)

The trades explained

The Jets trade #10, their 2025 first rounder and #72 to the Chargers for #5
Everyone’s jobs are on the line, Aaron Rodgers is coming to the end and they need to win now. Building for the future doesn’t seem likely.

The Jaguars trade #17, their 2025 first rounder and #96 to the Falcons for #8
It feels likely someone will trade up for one of the top-three receivers. The Jaguars need to do whatever it takes to make Trevor Lawrence work.

The Rams trade #19, #52 and #99 to the Broncos for #12
The word on the street is the coaches like Penix Jr more than the scouts. If there’s one offensive coach in the league who’s say will carry huge weight when it comes to offense, it’s Sean McVay. If he likes Penix Jr, look out.

The Cowboys trade #24 and #56 to the Seahawks for #16
Micah Parsons complained about Dallas needing an interior threat. The Cowboys move up to secure local player Byron Murphy, giving the Seahawks a needed second rounder in the process.

The Commanders trade #36, #139 and #152 to the Chiefs for #32
A typical, cheap, jump back into the end of round one to make sure you get a player you really want.

Seahawks seven-rounder

#24 (v/DAL) — Graham Barton (OL, Duke)
John Schneider, I sense, has been dying to tell fans to ‘relax’ during an off-season of concern about the O-line. At the end of the day, I think they’ll find a way to address it that will have most people satisfied. The Ravens drafted Tyler Linderbaum in this range and there was some curiosity whether the Seahawks liked him. They supposedly did like Dallas’ Tyler Smith, also in this range. I suspect Steve Hutchinson will approve of Barton.

#56 (v/DAL) — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
Over the last few days I’ve just really got the sense that the Seahawks are going to draft a QB. Not some throwaway late rounder either. I’m talking about one of these three options — Michael Penix in round one, Spencer Rattler in round two or Michael Pratt in round three or four. I think Schneider is going to start doing what he always said he set out to do — take shots at the position.

#81 — Jonah Elliss (EDGE, Utah)
There’s a common trend among the best pass rushers in the NFL — they run a great short shuttle. Elliss managed a sizzling 4.17 at his pro-day, on top of an explosive 38-inch vertical. He has the high motor, the aggressive playing style and the traits. Now he just needs guidance and development. This would allow them to potentially part with Darrell Taylor down the line to save money.

#102 — Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
If the Seahawks want someone who can essentially play the same type of role as Kyle Hamilton, I continue to think this is your man. He’s an excellent athlete, played various positions for UW and my source at Washington hailed his discipline to handle a challenging role within the Huskies defense. My only concern is he’ll go in round three and not last to #102.

#118 — Jared Wiley (TE, TCU)
The tight end class is difficult to read and Wiley is a particularly tricky evaluation. He has an outstanding frame and ran a 4.62 with a great 1.62 10-yard split. However, his critical tests in the short shuttle (4.52) and three-cone (7.19) were not matching most of the top TE’s in the league. That could drop him a round. I think in Ryan Grubb’s scheme, they may well be prepared to take a chance on someone who’s basically more of a big receiving target.

#179 — Ryan Flournoy (WR, SE Missouri State)
The Seahawks tend to add a receiver at some point. I think they’d love to add this guy, who excelled at the Senior Bowl. Flournoy is highly admired for his A+ character and he has enormous 10 1/4 inch hands for a 6-1, 205lbs receiver. He’s also an exceptional athlete, he’s quick and he’s a very willing blocker in the run game. He’s someone I think could go earlier than this but other projectors are saying sixth round, so we’ll say he was available.

#192 — Michael Barrett (LB, Michigan)
I’m not convinced the Seahawks are going to attack this position early. They’ve signed two very competent linebackers and in the past, they’ve not had a ton of depth at the position. Barrett is a no-frills linebacker but he plays with an extremely physical style, he’s reliable and he gets in the right position to do his job. He could come in and provide excellent special teams value and then develop into a potential starter down the line.

#235 — George Holani (RB, Boise State)
I only checked out Holani after reading he was visiting the Seahawks. There’s not much else to say other than this — he is exactly the type of running back they tend to love.

Final thoughts

Things haven’t really changed in terms of round one. I think if Troy Fautanu or Taliese Fuaga lasts to #16, the Seahawks will stick and pick. Michael Penix Jr is a wildcard.

If Fautanu and Fuaga are gone, I think that could be the trigger point to trade down. After all, look at the defense.

They have four edge rushers already on the roster. This is the same GM who drafted Boye Mafe and Derick Hall as early as he did. He traded up in round two for Darrell Taylor. He paid Uchenna Nwosu. If they draft yet another edge rusher in the first two rounds, they’re just keeping players they invested in off the field. I get the sense Schneider is keen to see what Mike Macdonald can do with this group.

Jarran Reed and Dre’Mont Jones might not be long term fixtures on the D-line. Johnathan Hankins is a one-year fix. However, they do have numbers in this area. I’m not saying throwing Byron Murphy into the rotation too wouldn’t be great — but I’m not sure pushing Reed into a part-time role is going to be the plan. They might trade Jones later in the year to save money — but they might just stick with what they already have. After all, their one big splash in free agency was at defensive tackle (keeping Leonard Williams).

I’m not sure I agree with the growing voices suggesting the Seahawks are going defense in round one. Unless, of course, they just see the value. If they love Murphy, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner, I understand why they might just go for it. But it’s hard to imagine them doing that and sufficiently addressing the O-line which is in dire need of improvement.

I actually wonder if most of the defensive work is done and they’ll use the mid/late rounds to add depth and competition as projected here. Then they’ll rely on the new defensive Head Coach to lift everyone’s level. Meanwhile, they focus on the offense.

I keep coming back to this — in the best offensive line class for years, after years of Schneider bemoaning the lack of quality O-liners coming into the league — are they really going to pass up the chance to get a good one now? Especially when the O-line, in its current form, isn’t fit for purpose?

It might not be Barton. It might be a right tackle. If Abe Lucas isn’t going to be able to return, it’s a pressing need. Or they might consider pushing Lucas inside. That could bring the likes of Amarius Mims into play. However, I think there’s still a good chance their top pick will be an offensive lineman.

I also think Schneider will be determined to add a quarterback with at least starting potential. I think this is the way things will be now — lots of shots at the position and a serious effort to find the future at QB. If they can’t trade down from #16, or if they take Fautanu or Fuaga at that spot, perhaps they pivot to Michael Pratt in round three or four. Here I have them selecting Spencer Rattler — taking a chance on his obvious natural talent in round two.

We’ve talked a lot about trying to have a transformational draft to get this franchise out of the middle-ground. I’m not sure you can do that without finding ‘the guy’ at quarterback. That’s why they have to take chances. This class also gives you a chance to improve up front and provide depth and competition at several areas.

I’ll be on the HawkBlogger draft roundtable again today at the slightly earlier time of 11am PT. You can watch via the embed below. Also, don’t forget to check out my interviews with Tony Pauline and Jack Westover on my channel.

My annual interview with draft analyst/insider Tony Pauline

For the 10th draft in succession, I was able to talk draft with friend of the blog Tony Pauline from Sportskeeda. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Tony, whose work I’ve followed since his Sports Illustrated days when I first started writing SDB. His relentless tape study and unmatched enthusiasm for the draft inspired me to do what I do — and it’s been a real pleasure every year to spend some time talking to Tony about the upcoming draft.

The blog is going to be full of content for the next few days — so just a reminder to scroll down the main page so you don’t miss anything. Be sure to also check out my interview with Washington TE Jack Westover, my latest appearance on PuckSports and my article on why I think the Seahawks are going to draft a quarterback this year. Coming up in the next few days — two final mocks, a new cap piece from Curtis Allen, my updated 2024 horizontal board and a lot more.

Why I think the Seahawks will draft a quarterback next week

I think John Schneider is going to draft a quarterback next week.

I appreciate it’s not the boldest of bold takes. However, when the Seahawks traded for Sam Howell I certainly doubted it at the time. I’ve come around a bit since then. That move, with hindsight, was undoubtedly an attempt to hedge the draft and make sure they didn’t come out of this off-season with no young quarterback on the roster. The alternative was scrambling around in the expensive, underwhelming veteran backup market. Thus, Howell to Seattle.

In the last 24 hours there are a few tea leaves doing the rounds that suggest the Seahawks aren’t finished at the position.

Firstly, I was watching a three-round mock draft featuring former Vikings GM Rick Spielman (who most recently worked with the Commanders to sort through their front office build as an advisor). Spielman had Seattle’s pick at #81 and selected Michael Pratt the Tulane quarterback. He prefaced the pick by saying he was going to ‘throw a curveball’.

There was no deeper explanation for the pick but I found it interesting.

Then I saw this video featuring Peter Schrager:

If you can’t watch it, basically Schrager says he made a mistake not including Michael Penix Jr in his mock draft this week after being contacted by several league sources. If the Washington quarterback doesn’t go in the top-20, someone will make sure he doesn’t get out of round one. He says the two teams he’s hearing connected to Penix Jr are the Raiders and the Seahawks.

Here’s my takeaway from this. Whether it happens or not, it seems to me like there’s a feeling ‘in the league’ that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback. That’s being expressed in two ways here — the possibility of them drafting Penix Jr early, or taking someone like Michael Pratt in the middle rounds.

Why is that noteworthy? For so long now, you’ve barely heard anything of this nature. The Seahawks never come up as a likely QB destination when the main media types talk about the position. The thought is — they have Geno Smith and traded for Sam Howell. That’s enough.

When I see and hear stuff like this from Spielman and Schrager, it just makes me think there’s a jungle drum beating somewhere suggesting the Seahawks are interested in the position.

Let’s put it this way. The Seahawks have a Heisman runner-up on their doorstep, who just led his team to the National Championship game. They literally hired his college offensive coordinator to run the offense in Seattle. Yet the fans/media has barely talked about Penix Jr to the Seahawks over the last month. It’s been an afterthought, amid all the talk of offensive and defensive linemen.

Apologies for repeating myself — but is it any surprise that the man who was Director of Football Operations when the Green Bay Packers had a QB depth chart of Brett Favre, a first round pick (Aaron Rodgers) and a second round pick (Brian Brohm) might be set to add a quarterback — potentially in the first three rounds — to go with Smith and Howell?

Plus the Seahawks have pretty much addressed all of their needs pre-draft. You can’t address every need with a splash signing. They’ve set themselves up to not feel forced to do anything in any particular round. Essentially, if they wanted to draft a quarterback for development purposes or even to compete this year — it’d be no different than doing the same at linebacker, defensive tackle or safety.

When I do my next Seahawks seven round mock, there will be a quarterback included. I don’t think they’re going to reach. I think they’ll let the board come to them. Taking Penix Jr might require trading down first and him still being available. Pratt might be more of a focus at #102 than #81. Either way though, I think one of the top-seven QB’s in this class will end up in Seattle.

Once they’re gone, you’ve missed the boat. I don’t see any point in wasting a pick on Joe Milton unless it’s a throwaway seventh rounder. Jordan Travis lacks the physical tools to start in the NFL — plus he’s coming off a horrendous injury. When Spencer Rattler and Pratt are gone, that’s more or less it.

I’ve said it since Pete Carroll departed — Schneider is itching to take a quarterback, or make a splash at the position. The non-committal comments about Geno Smith in the build up to the combine spelled out their aims. They want to find the future at QB. That will either come in the form of a big investment (eg, a first round pick on Penix Jr) or it’ll come in the form of taking a lot of different shots (using a mid-round pick on Michael Pratt).

I don’t think they’re going to be passive, though. I don’t think they’re going to keep kicking the can down the road. This is the third off-season since the Russell Wilson trade. I can’t imagine they’ll go another draft without selecting a quarterback. Not a throwaway pick either. Something more substantial.

Could it be Penix Jr? Yes. For all we know, Ryan Grubb is banging the table for him behind the scenes. For all we know, John Schneider thinks his golden arm is the key to contention in the future. We know he’s a scheme fit and we know Schneider thinks a lot of the Washington offense featuring Penix Jr, that’s why Grubb’s in Seattle and not Alabama.

While Penix Jr is far from a perfect prospect — his downfield throwing ability is an X-factor trait. He helped elevate the Huskies and showed against Texas what his upside potential is.

Would it be that shocking if the Seahawks found a way to jump the Raiders, if they like him so much? I’m sure the Broncos would enjoy screwing a division rival — especially if the player they’re eyeing would be available at #16 anyway. Or perhaps Penix Jr is destined to last into the later part of round one and the Seahawks intend to trade down, collect stock and then pull the trigger?

As for Pratt, I remember watching Oklahoma against Tulane in 2021. It was expected to be a one-sided game — and it was at half-time. Yet the Tulane quarterback just wouldn’t quit. He was getting absolutely hammered (literally) from start to finish. He had no help. Yet he dragged them back from a 20-odd point deficit in the second half to within a drive of winning the game. I immediately made a note of the QB’s name — Michael Pratt.

As I watched more, I got the sense that his upside wasn’t that high. His arm is good not great. There isn’t a real dynamism to his game. He’s solid but unspectacular. His stat-line as a four year starter has been consistent throughout. He was a big part of the Tulane team that elevated to win the Cotton Bowl during the 2022 season. Tulane were 23-5 over the last two seasons after going 2-10 in 2021. It’s their best two-year period in over 90 years.

Athletically he’s better than expected. He ran a 4.23 short shuttle, jumped a 36 inch vertical and a 9-6 broad jump. He compares somewhat to Drew Lock — who ran a 4.12 shuttle and jumped a 31 inch vert and a 9-4 broad. Lock was 10lbs heavier but they have the same level of athleticism and hand size. We know Schneider liked Lock — so it’s plausible he’d take a shot on Pratt.

I want the Seahawks to build up the trenches as much as anyone — but I also think this team needs ‘the guy’ at quarterback, with all the benefits of having ‘the guy’ on a rookie contract, to become a serious contender again. Geno Smith is 34 this year. He’s been streaky in both of his two seasons as a starter in Seattle — with good and bad stretches (even Schneider spelled that out). He’s a very useful bridge. They can’t just keep muddling along though without investing in this position short of a pick-swap for Howell. You can’t force it but you can’t ignore it either.

We might finally be reaching a point where Schneider does what he says he set out to do all along — regularly draft quarterbacks. It might be one this year and next. Keep looking for the guy. Because once you find him, it’s amazing how a top-tier franchise quarterback can cover a lot of warts.

The Seahawks will draft a quarterback in the first four rounds next week. That’s my prediction.

Stay tuned this week — my weekly appearance on PuckSports will publish at 1pm PT on Thursday. I’m also interviewing Washington tight end Jack Westover later today, plus I’ll be interviewing my good friend Tony Pauline on Friday to discuss a number of a draft topics. Curtis Allen has an updated cap article coming this weekend and I’ll also have a new mock draft. Then, on Sunday, I’ll be part of the Hawkblogger draft roundtable at the earlier start time of 11am PT. It all builds up to extensive coverage of the Seahawks and the draft next week. So be sure to check out Seahawks Draft Blog and my YouTube channel — and if you want to support the blog via Patreon, click here.

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